Episode Transcript
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Greetings and salutations, mycreative brothers and sisters.
Welcome to Not Real Art, thepodcast where we talk to the world's
most creative people.
I am your host.
Faithful, trusty, loyal,tireless, relentless host.
Sourdough coming at you fromCrew west studio in Los Angeles.
How are you people?
Thanks for tuning in.
We do this for you.
It's all about you.
We love you guys, so thanksfor your loyalty.
It is the last week of themonth, which means that I have an
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auditorial for you.
Yes, an auditorial.
The time I get on my soapboxand talk about something that's on
my mind.
And today I'm going to talkabout why the art market is crashing.
So much stress and drama andthe art market these days.
Why are sales down?
What's happening?
Why are galleries closing?
Well, I have a theory andwe'll talk about that today.
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Thank you so much for that.
All right, today, today wehave an auditorial and I'm going
to get on my soapbox and talkabout my theory as to why the art
market is crashing.
Is changing.
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Certainly there's a lot ofhand wringing going on in the art
market.
The high end of the art market.
Oh my goodness.
Why are sales down?
Why are galleries closing?
People are just opting out.
Now we've had a series ofprominent gallerists closing, getting
out of the game, saying thatthe system is unsustainable, that
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it's too expensive.
The fair.
Art fairs are crazy expensiveand people are burnout and there's
so much going on at the highend of the market and sales are,
are suffering and, and it's fascinating.
Just listen to various expertsand arts journalists talk about what's
going on and people aretalking a lot about the symptoms
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of what's happening.
But I don't hear a lot ofexplanation as to why it's all happening,
why sales are down, why peopleare walking away.
Historically, I think it'sbeen a cyclical thing in many ways.
It's sort of the art marketfollows the economy.
And if the market isoptimistic, if the bulls are running
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and the economy's good, peoplefeel optimistic about the future.
So they're comfortablespending millions of dollars on art
because they feel like they'llbe able to flip it in the future
for more money.
And so they can take greaterrisk because they're optimistic about
the future.
And then of course, people getbearish and people get more conservative
when the markets turn down.
And so for the last, you know,40, 50 years, we've had this kind
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of cyclical approach, bullsand bears kind of going round and
round.
And simply put, the artmarket's kind of been a reflection
of that.
But the, the kind of theconventional wisdom or the fear or
the consensus I'm hearing isthat people feel like this is, this
is different now, politics areplaying into it.
Politics are very differentthese days, maybe than they've been
in quite a long, long time.
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And so that's part of it.
It's not just an economicissue necessarily, it's a political
issue.
I feel like people are feelingvery uncertain about the future.
And, you know, certainlythat's playing into it.
And so we're sort of at thisnew juncture, both economically and
politically, and the high endof the market, the, you know, millionaires
and billionaires are feelinglike they're a little uncertain about
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the future.
They're probably going tospend less money on art, and that's
certainly part of it.
However, I have a few theorieshere as to what's going on, and I'm
not hearing anybody talk about it.
So I thought I would mentionit because I think part of what's
happening here is we have aworld in transition and we have a
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country in transition.
Well, certainly politicallyand economically, but why?
What, what's going on?
Well, I think we're in atransition from a boomer led country
to a millennial led country.
And boomers, baby boomers,Post World War II, you know, essentially
for the last, you know, 80years plus, they have driven the
conversation, they've driventhe economy, they've driven the world.
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They've created a world builton their values and principles and
goals and ambitions and dreamsand aspirations, and, and the art
market has been a reflectionof that.
The boomers have largelycreated the art market as we know
it.
And boomers are getting olderand passing on.
They're.
They're getting up in years.
And with any kind of industry,with any market, with any, for any
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brand, if your core consumeris aging out, so to speak, you have
to bring new customers in tomake up for those that you're losing.
And I think what's happeningis that millennials, on a certain
level, are rejecting the worldthat the boomers have created for
better and worse.
And boomers have done ahorrible job, I think, of bringing
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millennials into the fold, soto speak.
Boomers are, I think, afraidto give, give up power, which is
why we have politicians thatrefuse to retire, or we have politicians
that are, you know, very up inarms about the younger generation
coming in.
And so we have a seismic shift happening.
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We have a fundamentalsocietal, cultural, demographic shift
happening.
And the values and theprinciples, I think, that animate
millennials are different thanthose that animated boomers.
And millennials outnumber Boomers.
And millennials are not justthe future, they're the present.
And the boomers have had theirday, and they're getting older and
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aging on and aging out andmoving on and passing on.
And so if millennials aren'tbuying into this art market that
the boomers have created,well, the art market's going to fail.
It's just going to falter now.
It might not go awaycompletely, but it's going to shrink.
And, you know, I heard astatistic the other day that from
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a full philanthropicperspective, you know, the largest
transfer of wealth is about tohappen from boomers down to their
kids, about $74 trillion ofwealth or being transferred from
boomers down to their children.
And in philanthropic circles,fundraisers and development, people
are professionals, areconcerned because there's real concern
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that, that the children ofboomers are not going to be as generous
as the boomers were.
And so where, you know, isfundraising going to go?
What's going to happen tophilanthropy if you have $74 trillion
being handed down?
And those people receivingthat money aren't going to be donating
necessarily aren't going to beas charitable or, or as generous
as their parents or grandparents?
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And so, so there's a real concern.
Now, look, millennials havenot done as well as their parents
or grandparents.
Young people, Gen Z, Gen Alphacan't afford homes these days, largely,
they're strapped with largecollege debt.
They can't afford homes.
So, you know, what makes usthink that they're going to be able
to afford expensive artthey're not.
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Now, that doesn't mean thatthey don't love art or love artists,
because I would, I believewe're in a creative renaissance.
I don't think art or have beenmore popular certainly in my lifetime
than they are right now.
And we're, I really believewe're enjoying a creative renaissance.
But millennials have said, youknow, I don't have to spend a million
dollars on art.
I can spend a hundred dollars,I can spend a thousand dollars, I
can spend $500 on art that Ilove from a local artist, from emerging
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artists, from an artist that I love.
And that art is, I'm going toput that in my home.
It's going to give me joy anddelight and I don't have to listen
to what the so called expertssay or the so called art consultants
say or the gallerists say.
They, you know, millennials, Ithink largely TR and intuitions and
instincts and they buy whatthey love and they, you know, decorate
their apartments and homeswith it, whether they own it or not.
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And they're probably rentingor leasing or whatever.
But millennials haveessentially said, no, we, A, we don't
have to spend a lot of moneyon art.
We love it.
B, we don't have the money tospend, you know, anyway.
And you know, millennialslargely grew up in a time of terrorism,
war, recession, debt, climatechange, natural disasters.
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And so they're going to beconservative, they're going to be
risk averse.
Boomers grew up a time ofprosperity and opportunity and they
were very optimistic and, youknow, sort of acted that optimism
out in many, many ways.
And the art market sort of wasa reflection of that.
And I think, you know, becausemillennials aren't buying into this
model, the art market's goingto shrink.
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And because millennials don'thave the money to buy into the model
that the boomers have created,you know, it's going to shrink.
I think that's a huge part of it.
It's a huge part of it.
And another critical aspect ofthis is that there's been absolutely
virtually no innovation in theart world and the art market over
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the last 50, 60 years.
We created one business modelessentially to serve the stakeholders
over the last several decades.
And we created an art marketand a business model that doesn't
serve 99.9% of artists.
It serves a very curated,cherry picked kind of game where
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the wealthy and powerful artgallerists and dealers are able to
select those artists from Yalewith their MFA and can kind of shepherd
and guide those artists on to,to fame and fortune and, you know,
museum shows, etc.
Etc.
And, but that was one model,and now that model has worked, you
know, for them, for thestakeholders that created it.
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It didn't really work.
It doesn't really work for99.9% of artists.
But essentially, from abusiness model perspective, there's
been no innovation in the art market.
It's been one business model,predominant business model.
And so, you know, when youdon't innovate and you don't create
new business models, yourindustry is going to shrink and it's,
it's gonna, or it's at leastgonna sort of be static and not grow
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very much.
And of course, when, you knowyou've got the billionaire class
coming online, they've got alot of money to throw around.
Okay, sure, you can maybe growthat way because there's just more
money in, in the, in the, youknow, at play.
But that doesn't necessarilymean there's more buyers, right?
Because certainly there'sonly, there's more and more billionaires
every year.
But, you know, there's stillonly a very few of those in the world.
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And when they have all themoney, it's not going to trickle
down.
And so that's not going to gointo the art market.
Right?
So, so, you know, what youhave here is you have a seismic transition
happening demographically fromboomers to millennials.
It's a millennial world now,and you have virtually zero innovation
in the art market over the years.
And so there's not newbusiness models now.
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That's changing.
I think millennials arechanging, that they're innovating
in all kinds of interestingways in terms of alternative spaces
and in different ways ofshowing and experiencing art and
selling art.
So there is some innovationstarting to happen now, but that's
because the young youngbloodsare coming in and you know, and saying,
you know, enough's enough.
We're rejecting this worldthat the bo going to create our own.
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And so, you know, if the topend of the market is like, waiting
for the market to bounce backand, you know, reach new high as
the economy gets better,politics get better, so on and so
forth, I'm not so sure that'sgoing to happen this time around,
you know, because, you know,if boomers are aging out and dying
off, you know, what do you got left?
You got Gen X, you gotmillennials, you got Gen Z, Gen Alpha.
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And these folks are just notinterested in the art world that
we've created.
And they don't have the moneyto play that game, so they're going
to invent their own game.
And that's what they're doing.
They're doing it all kinds of ways.
And whether it's Digital Artor NFTs, for example, or any number
of experiences that pop up,museums, U haul galleries, you know,
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alternative spaces, any numberof things.
A lot of fresh ideas andinnovation coming online thanks to
millennials and Gen Z and Gen Alpha.
But with boomers aging out andgoing away, the art market will be
forever changed.
And I'm not hearing anybodytalk about it in these terms.
And I think that, you know,the elephant in the room is, is just
this, that nobody, of course,nobody wants to talk about their
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mortality.
Nobody wants to talk aboutthey're getting older or dying off,
but that's exactly what's happening.
And, and we haven't broughtenough people into the system and
they don't have the economicpower anyway to come into the, to
the model the way boomers did.
And so they're going toreinvent it.
And it's the same thing with politics.
I mean, we have, you know,boomers wanting to hold on to power,
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but of course, can only holdon for so long.
Eventually new blood is goingto come in.
And so, you know, we see ourpolitics changing, we see our society
changing, we see our economy changing.
And, and by the way, this is,you know, largely a global phenomena
too, because so much of theworld is getting older.
And so we're just seeing this,the seismic tectonic demographic
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shift and, you know, that'sgoing to impact values and what people
want in the world and whatthey, what they want from art and
artists.
And, and so the art market's,you know, being challenged and being
changed fundamentally.
And so I think that this is,this is one of the reasons why the
high end of the art market isshrinking, is sales are down and
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people are sort of wringingtheir hands and freaking out a little
bit about why, why, why what'shappening and, and burnout is real,
and people are sensing it,whether they, they sort of think
of it in these terms or not,but they're, they're just saying,
you know, I've been on thishamster on this wheel for a long
time.
I'm tired, I'm done.
And so they're getting out ofthe game.
But the art world hasn'treally done a great job of, of trying
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to, you know, innovate andstay fresh and new and create new
models and new services orproducts that, that serve Artists
and help connect artists and buyers.
And at a, at an entry level,you know, that's, that's the other
thing.
I mean, part of, part of the,you know, the way you grow the market,
you know, is by also bringingnew buyers into the market at the
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entry level.
Because most people, you know,most art out there available for
sale is 10,000 and lower,certainly if you buy directly from
artists.
And so, you know, youngbuyers, new buyers, you know, they're
not going to be able to afford much.
We need to bring them in, weneed to bring them into the market
at the lower end because the,the home decor wall art sector is
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a $75 billion sector, youknow, and if you could get 1 to 5%
of, of, of those people totrade up into buying original art,
I mean, you're going to see aninflux of almost a billion dollars
into the art market and thatwould be, that would be incredible.
But, you know, the, our world,as we know, has not really cared
about the entry level of the market.
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So they've been happy to letfolks buy mass produced home decor
and mass produced printedartworks at the likes of Home Goods
or Target or I don't know whatname your store, but you get my point.
So lack of innovation, lack ofbringing in new, new buyers into
the market, strugglingeconomy, a struggling job market,
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all of these things play intothe health of a marketplace and the
sustainability of a marketplace.
And our world has just done areally bad job of, of building a
future for itself.
And now that its corecustomers, I.e.
boomers, are aging out anddying off and millennials can't fill
those shoes economically,you're going to see, you're going
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to see a change, you're goingto see a shrinkage happening.
And so I think that's what's,I think that's what's going on, folks.
That's my theory.
What's your theory?
Would love to hear.
You know, do me a favor, emailus DM us, call us, let us know your
thoughts about why you thinkthe art market is changing and shrinking
and what the root causes are.
I just think that, you know,what we're seeing in the world is
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a, is a huge shift away from aboomer led world into a millennial
led world.
And that's impacting not justour market, but our politics and
our economy.
So that's my auditorial for today.
It's all I got.
Take it or leave it, Sourdough.
Over and out.
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