August 20, 2025 • 26 mins
Wondering if Northwest Arkansas is still the smart investment play everyone claims? The data speaks volumes. While national headlines scream about housing market crashes and 20% price drops, our mid-2025 market snapshot reveals a dramatically different local reality.
Northwest Arkansas continues its steady appreciation path with Benton County median home prices reaching $386,000 and Washington County hitting $350,000. The price per square foot – perhaps the most telling metric for investors – has jumped 7.7% in Benton County, significantly outpacing inflation and providing real equity growth for property owners.
What truly sets our region apart is the inventory situation. While active listings nationwide have surged by a staggering 30.6% year-over-year, Northwest Arkansas has maintained a much more balanced 13-16% increase. This controlled growth explains why we're seeing stable appreciation while other markets struggle with price volatility. With current supply at just 4-5 months (well below the 12-18 months considered optimal for a balanced market), demand continues to outpace available housing.
The community-level data reveals fascinating shifts. Bella Vista leads Benton County sales, followed by Bentonville and Rogers. Perhaps most surprising is Lowell's performance, surpassing Springdale in residential transactions – a community to watch for emerging opportunities. Meanwhile, Fayetteville has been recognized as a top U.S. city for job and talent growth with per capita income reaching an impressive $90,000, further strengthening the economic foundation supporting our housing market.
Whether you're a seasoned investor or just beginning your real estate journey, understanding these local market dynamics is crucial to making informed decisions in Northwest Arkansas. Join us next episode as we explore specific investment strategies still working in this unique market environment and the infrastructure expansions driving future growth opportunities.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:07):
Welcome to Northwest Arkansas Investing Podcast, your
go-to source for real estateinvesting in Northwest Arkansas.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
With your seasoned investor just starting out.
We bring you expert insights,market trends and practical
strategies to help you buildwealth through real estate.
Speaker 3 (00:20):
From buying and selling to property management
and long-term investmentplanning.
We cover it all so you can makesmart, informed decisions in
this fast-growing market.
Let's dive in.
Welcome back to the NorthwestArkansas Investing Podcast.
I'm here with Mr Brian Wagersand we're getting kicked off now
.
We've got a couple of goodepisodes here for you, kind of
going through some marketupdates here in kind of the
(00:43):
middle of 2025.
We're going to give you asnapshot by county and some of
the things that we're seeing,just to kind of catch up here
mid-year.
And then we're going to go intoa couple other things over the
next few weeks about someinvestment strategies that we
see that are still working inthis market, and then kind of
where we continue to see thegrowth going, infrastructure and
(01:05):
expansion that's coming and anduh, which will lead us really
nicely into our next podcasthere with mr tyler overstreet.
So we're pumped to give yousome uh, some content here and
and um, yeah, just excited to beback in the studio with with
brennan.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
So yeah, a lot of good stuff.
I mean, I guess taking a lookat january 2025 to where now
shooting this july 23rd feelslike slowing by, it's crazy.
Um, we were just talking rightbefore we got air, is that?
You know, sometimes it feelslike you're working on a lot,
this, you're looking at a lot,and then sometimes it's slow.
(01:41):
I mean, I guess that's you know, in real estate, but nwa
specifically, you know you'vegot a lot of good stats pulled
up on your computer.
I know we'll dive into mediumhome prices, inventory levels,
uh, hot zip codes we have hereinvestor angles.
Um, you know, for me personally,I've seen, you know some deals.
(02:03):
It feels like I've looked atlike 10 or 20 deals and then
some some weeks it's been.
You know, for me personally,I've seen you know some deals.
It feels like I've I've lookedat like 10 or 20 deals and then
some some weeks it's been, youknow, only one or two.
Um, I feel like it's really anheavy.
And as far as leasing goes, youknow this is, summer is usually
pretty busy, like spring, andsummer is like you're, you want
to make sure you're all set tocapitalize on that.
Uh, on the rental side, Um,capitalize on that.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
Yeah, on the rental side, um, does it feel like rent
?
Uh, leases have slowed downover the I mean this year
comparatively to the last fewyears.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
Yeah, I have not seen a slowdown on it.
Honestly, on my propertiesright now, um, you know, I have
one summon rogers center 10 andum and fort smith's um, not
currently anything in springdale, but um, I think we saw for a
little bit that rents were askit, like some of this new
(02:53):
developmental rents weren't ashigh as what people were
thinking they were going to get.
Um, I think that's all.
I think that is starting to notbe, as I think it definitely
softened more like last, like inthe last year.
Yeah, um, on that, but it'sthat's such ebbs and flows on
nwa to, like you know, you mighthave a bunch of projects being
completed or you might have abunch of projects not moving
(03:16):
anywhere too.
Speaker 3 (03:16):
So yep, that makes sense and I mean realistically,
there's a lot more inventory onthe market rentals and, uh, you
know, and just inventory as faras homes for sale and and stuff
like that.
But, um, at the end of the day,we continue to have strong
numbers as far as, uh, folkscoming into northwest Arkansas,
which is great, and, uh, youknow, we're still in the time
(03:40):
macro where it's the mostunaffordable time to buy a house
ever, and so I think thosethings kind of continue to.
You know, for, at least fromyour perspective, it's going to
continue to help in an areawhere you have, you know, rents
that are well priced and ingreat areas it's going to be
easy to keep those filled, Ithink, for a while, until we see
(04:00):
any kind of shake in mortgagerates, any kind of significant
shake, I guess.
So I think most people would.
You know, if you keep up enough, I'll look at the 10-year
treasury most days, honestly,and we've been pretty stagnant
in mortgage rates and they've,you know, kind of ebbed and
flowed in really smallincrements, but we haven't seen
(04:20):
any big shifts anytime in thelast like basically six months
since trump's been in office.
So, anyway, it'll beinteresting to see what
continues there, um, you knowhow everything shakes out with
the fed chair and all that kindof stuff when, uh, when their
time's up in in their seat, um,and how things will change.
But it'll be, it'll beinteresting and and, uh, I think
(04:43):
we're, we're poised to be in agood spot.
So, uh, but overall I think youknow some things we want to kind
of hit on, uh, as far as kindof a mid-year, mid-year update,
looking at some of the statsacross tantos arkansas.
Really, this will be kind ofbenton and washington county and
we'll and we'll get specificinto these and and, uh, brian,
I'd love some of your input.
You know kind of what thisfeels like to you and things
(05:07):
like that.
But, uh, just to kind of give amarket overview single family
homes median sales pricecontinues to rise.
Uh, from last year we're up3.1% um in Benton County,
washington County is a littlebit higher than that.
And then when you look at andthat median sales price is
(05:27):
around $375,000, still pretty,or, excuse me, $386,000, still
pretty well below where the restof the country's at, which is
about four and a quarter orsomething like that median home
price in the United States.
So good to be still pretty wellunder that, but we're obviously
continuing to creep up.
And then something I think hasbeen really interesting to note
(05:51):
too, just in, you know, I thinkthis is where we'll see like for
investors or for anybody elsethe price per square foot, how
that's continued to trend up anddefinitely outpace inflation.
Every year Benton County hasgone up another 7.7% in price
per square foot for 24 to 25.
So any surprises there?
Speaker 2 (06:13):
No, I think you know 3% year over year.
I mean that feels about right.
You know like it feels kind ofstat like to us being invested
here.
It feels stagnant, like yousaid, kind of like same thing as
interest rates.
It seems like not a lot's, youknow not a lot's trading or not
a lot's moving, but that's still3% growth on prices.
(06:33):
And I think you know mostpeople, when they're real, you
know, investing in real estate,you underwrite for higher than
3% growth.
You know for higher than 3%growth.
So you're going to have toforce appreciation a little bit
more here and people that mayhave already forced appreciation
, it might make more sense tohold on to their assets until
(06:57):
interest rates come down.
Who knows, I'm no expert inthat crystal ball.
It comes down end of the year,next year and the next year.
Yeah, I couldn't tell you, butI think some people are in those
positions or something else tohappen, where there's a ton of
growth and not much more comes.
You know, just the grass, uh,outpaces, uh, what's built.
Speaker 3 (07:19):
So yep, absolutely so .
And then I think just kind ofgetting into kind of I mean
piggybacking on what you'resaying there benton county days
on market, uh, and I'm lookingat a chart here over the past 10
years, we're now back at, youknow, we're at 2018, 2019 levels
.
We're, um, you know, sittingaround 70 days on market on
(07:39):
average for a home to be sold,and so, uh, I think I think
that's super interesting thatwe're finally back.
If you see this chart, whichI'd go, a lot of this data I'm
pulling together from a resourcelocally called NWA.
Look so free marketing for them, but great resource to keep up
with some of this residentialmore micro data that we use
(08:02):
pretty regularly just talking toinvestors and letting them know
kind of how at least the singlefamily market's going.
But you'll really see kind ofthis V shape where we, you know,
really, from a 10 year chart,you know, days on market was
pretty high around 90 days andthen, obviously, as we get into
the COVID years, days on marketwas at their, you know, historic
(08:25):
lows, and then now we're kindof continuing to creep back up
into what we would call a morebalanced market, and so I think,
just something interesting tokeep in mind, you know, and to
consider as an investor and so,but a couple other things I mean
I guess that goes along withthat as well as current and I
think is one of the moreimportant metrics to continue to
(08:46):
kind of keep eyes on is currentinventory levels and kind of
where those are at.
We've talked in the past what wefeel like historically is
healthy inventory levels andthat would be anywhere from 12
months of supply to 18 months ofsupply and the way they come up
with these metrics.
If we were to not build anotherhome home today, uh, you know
(09:06):
how long until we would run outof the inventory that we have,
and typically a 12 to 18 month,um, you know, inventory level is
kind of where it would be asconsidered as a healthy and
balanced market.
And we're now up from fourmonths of supply to five months
of supply 25% increase.
It's going up, shifting moretowards balance, but obviously
(09:30):
we're still, you know, half ofwhere they would really call a
balanced market.
So any surprises there?
Speaker 2 (09:36):
No, I think you hit on a couple of things that we'll
actually be talking in the nextepisode is investing strategies
, like days on markets, and youknow the opportunity to build.
You know with this keep, youknow swinging hammers and not
being able to keep up withdemand but still having to keep
be cost conscious, you know ifyou can make the cost work then
then you know there isopportunities and we'll be
(09:59):
diving in that one.
On the next one, um, but yeah,I think also, yeah, like to your
point I I had, we had a opinionof about it's what's called a
broker opinion of value, wherebroker like you might give a
proposal before someone actuallysays, hey, I need you to list
it like I don't need a proposal,let's just get the best price.
Some people might, you knowit's more formal and commercial
(10:21):
real estate and multifamily toget.
You know, take it to a couplebrokers and see what their
opinion is on taking it out,what they think you could sell
it for.
And that was on one of theapartments we looked at.
We didn't don't in no positionneed to sell or anything that
we're not planning to sell itfor a couple years.
But you should be getting anopinion.
Just like you're tracking yournet worth, if you're tracking
(10:43):
your incomes and expenses, youshould be tracking your asset
value.
So you know the broker opinionvalue came back less than it did
last year and it's been hummingalong Like it's been.
Like.
Occupancy is great, you know,just now getting rents up.
So they're probably, you know,seeing softening to where maybe
(11:06):
they don't want toover-guarantee a price that they
can sell for right now.
Sure, maybe that's.
Maybe they oversold onsomething previously, but
Interesting I think it is.
You know at least their opinionon where the market is, you
know yeah down from last year.
Speaker 3 (11:21):
So absolutely, I think that's wise to uh,
especially if you're already aninvestor and have those, that
option to be able to shop ataround every now and then to
kind of see where things aretrending and get opinions super
valuable and kind of can helpyou.
Just like this, this metric, uh, where months of supply is, can
give you an idea on wherethings are trending.
(11:42):
But uh, okay, we're kind ofwhen you're looking for market
updates.
Speaker 2 (11:45):
I think that'd be good for the listen that.
You know there's a coupledifferent.
Yeah, here the nwa investingpodcast.
Um, you know, I think that youknow that rbs skyline report.
It's always a great one to lookback.
You can find that online.
I think we may have it linkedin one of our episodes on
nwainvestingcom.
(12:07):
What other resource youmentioned, nwa?
Look, that's a good resource,yeah.
Speaker 3 (12:13):
NWA.
Look, I know there's some otherresources online that you can
kind of keep track of whereNorthwest Arkansas stands
against others.
I think there's a.
I want to say there's aresource out there out of St
Louis that I don't know ifyou've ever seen that before,
but they'll keep track ofcurrent inventory levels and
keep everything really pretty upto date on this Collier and
(12:35):
Associates put out stuff like dothey send you stuff?
nwa.
Look is is uh done by someoneat collier and associates, but
collier specifically does not Isaw lindsey puts out a pretty
good one too.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
I don't know if you get that one uh about like days
on market and stuff like that.
Yeah, axios is a good.
I've seen some local.
You you know that's morepolitical.
Zero Flux is a newsletter.
I signed up for it for somemarketing.
And then NWA Council is a goodone.
(13:08):
If you go to NWA Council Idon't know if that's org or com,
but they have good data.
It's not as real-time as someof this other stuff, but they've
got a lot of good data.
Speaker 3 (13:21):
Yeah, a lot of good things, I think, to keep up with
, and to me, I think I mean ametric that I keep the most
up-to-date with is currentinventory, because I think
supply and demand, more thananything, is going to continue
to tell the story on.
You know how things are goingto go as an investor.
Speaker 2 (13:39):
Economics 101 exactly like that got my major in
economics, minor in psychology.
Yes, sir, I love it.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
That's good for real estate right there, uh, but I
think so I want to.
I want to move on to, uh, thisone because I think this is an
important metric to kind of hiton, and we'll hit on a couple
few metrics before we wrap uphere.
But, um, what, what's yourguess on this is these are the
top 10 towns in Benton Countywith the number of sales year to
date.
Who do you think is toppingthat list right now in Benton
(14:08):
County?
Number of sales, yeah, numberof sales residential, of course,
um, rogers, uh, bella V vistabella, best, actually.
So it goes bella vistabittenville, right behind it, um
, and then rogers at numberthree.
So I think the most interestingone on this list, though, uh,
(14:30):
that I continue to watch.
I mean center 10 has gone downquite a bit.
I think center 10 would wouldhave been pretty well up there.
That's gonna going to be mynext guess.
Are they top ten?
They're top six now, but Ithink they would have been.
Pea Ridge has gone ahead ofthem now.
I mean, a lot of investorslistening to this probably know
the issues they're having withwastewater and stuff in
(14:52):
Centerton and how that's reallycut down on the inventory levels
out there and stuff like that,but I think a surprise one on
here is is Lowell.
So Lowell, I've been talkingabout it for a long time.
I love Lowell personally.
I think it's I think there's alot of great opportunities
coming.
I mean, the reality is there'snot a lot of you know,
(15:13):
apartments or not a lot ofinventory of you know warehouse
or any of the other categoriesyou look at, and so a lot of
it's new development, justbecause it's kind of been
underdeveloped for so long.
But I think this will be a citythat will continue to to thrive
just because it's in the middleof everything in northwest
(15:34):
Arkansas easy access, it's got alot of land right now and, and
so I think there's a lot ofopportunity.
But they're above Springdale ina number of residential sales
and then they've got a lot ofneighborhoods coming up, a lot
more things that they'rebuilding out there or around
there that I think will continueto benefit.
So I think lowell will be one towatch for sure I agree, shout
(15:56):
out jb hunt, shout out jb huntbig time.
So, uh, but I want to go realquick before we uh wrap up and
talk, talk through a few ofthese things in Washington
County as well.
So, similarly, uh, your mediansales price has gone up 4.7
percent to last year, um,sitting at around 350,000.
So pretty significantly lessthan Benton County $30,000 less
(16:19):
than Benton County on the mediansale price.
Of course, springdale,fayetteville, those are going to
be your main two, but there's alot of other sub markets in
there that are a lot moreaffordable, um that there's a
lot of building happening there,and so, really, that's kind of
where you're getting that number.
Um, you know Farmington, uh,west Fork, a lot of others with
new neighborhoods popping up,stuff like that.
(16:40):
Price per square foot, though,again, this has been, this is
one that has continued tooutpace inflation, not at the
rate that Benton County has, butup 4.7 percent to last year,
continuing to be stableappreciation.
And then days on market, verysimilar to Benton County, really
, uh, really right at the same.
They're at 14% to last year.
(17:02):
Days on market at 70 days, andthen, uh, I think I mean again
that current inventory uh number.
There they didn't have anyincrease at all and they're
still pretty well below uh wherethey should be, compared to.
Uh, what a balanced market wouldbe sitting at four months of
supply.
So I mean, we've talked aboutit a lot.
(17:25):
Washington County wouldobviously, most of it be made up
by Fayetteville and Springdale,and Fayetteville's kind of been
in this housing crisis for abit.
Not a ton of developmenthappening in Fayetteville
necessarily, but I think some onthe radar and a lot of people
are pushing for that inFayetteville necessarily, but I
think some on the radar and alot of people are pushing for
(17:45):
that.
But again, I mean very much theuniversity continues to grow.
There's not enough housing forthem or the residents, and so,
anyway, cool to see, kind ofwhere those months of supply are
.
I think Any surprises there foryou, brandon?
Speaker 2 (17:56):
No, I think Fayetteville is still growing
very fast and, politics aside,there's incredible opportunity
there.
I would be interested to trackand maybe next time when we do
the mid-end of the year 2025, totrack household income too.
(18:19):
Yeah, absolutely, who's risingthe fastest and you know, I have
that somewhere too, but, uh, Ithink that's as an investor.
That's something a stat wouldcontinue to look at too.
Who you know.
Make sure for a builder, makesure they can afford that new
home, or make sure they can paythose rents and still have, yeah
, disposable income.
(18:39):
Absolutely agree.
Speaker 3 (18:39):
So I think, overall, I mean we're, we're still- in a
really good spot as far as thepay those rents and still have
disposable income, absolutelyAgreed.
So I think, overall, I meanwe're still in a really good
spot as far as the housingmarket goes and I think you know
that's going to continue tohelp investors, it's going to
continue to help homebuyers.
And then, just overall, I thinkthe most interesting is I look,
you know, northwest Arkansascompared to the rest of the
(19:02):
United States.
I think what you'll see in thenews is that there's a housing
crash right now and that pricesare dropping 15%, 20%.
You look at the United States.
The United States overall is up30.6% in active listings year
over year, is up 30.6% in activelistings year over year, while
(19:26):
we're at half of that, around13% to 16%.
You know listings year overyear.
So we obviously cannot continueto keep up with the demand
right now, as the rest of theUnited States is, and so
therefore, we're continuing tosee stable appreciation and I
think we'll continue for a while.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
So another shout out to Fayetteville, arkansas.
I wanted to pull this up.
Before we got up it was a topUS city that is surging in jobs
and talent.
You know that size of 2025.
So some of these smallbusinesses are struggling.
You know Fayetteville isbringing in massive jobs and
talent per capita income of$90,000.
So massive corporateinvestments are transforming
(20:04):
local economies like Bayville.
Per the article.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
Love it, well cool.
Well, we wanted to just kind oftalk through Washington County
and Benton County stats, kind of.
As we're at the mid-year pointhere and as the RVES skyline
ends up dropping sometime in thenext few months, we'll kind of
go back and walk through kind ofwhat you know what that data
has to say as well about thefirst half of 2025 as well.
(20:30):
But overall, things continue totrend pretty strong and a lot
of great indicators in ourmarket and for investors and for
homebuyers.
So thanks again for listeningto the podcast and we'll see you
on the next See you guys.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
See you guys Again.
Thank you guys for tuning in.
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Thanks for listening and we'llsee you next time.
Welcome to Northwest Arkansas Investing Podcast, your
go-to source for real estateinvesting in Northwest Arkansas.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
With your seasoned investor just starting out.
We bring you expert insights,market trends and practical
strategies to help you buildwealth through real estate.
Speaker 3 (00:20):
From buying and selling to property management
and long-term investmentplanning.
We cover it all so you can makesmart, informed decisions in
this fast-growing market.
Let's dive in.
Welcome back to the NorthwestArkansas Investing Podcast.
I'm here with Mr Brian Wagersand we're getting kicked off now
.
We've got a couple of goodepisodes here for you, kind of
going through some marketupdates here in kind of the
(00:43):
middle of 2025.
We're going to give you asnapshot by county and some of
the things that we're seeing,just to kind of catch up here
mid-year.
And then we're going to go intoa couple other things over the
next few weeks about someinvestment strategies that we
see that are still working inthis market, and then kind of
where we continue to see thegrowth going, infrastructure and
(01:05):
expansion that's coming and anduh, which will lead us really
nicely into our next podcasthere with mr tyler overstreet.
So we're pumped to give yousome uh, some content here and
and um, yeah, just excited to beback in the studio with with
brennan.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
So yeah, a lot of good stuff.
I mean, I guess taking a lookat january 2025 to where now
shooting this july 23rd feelslike slowing by, it's crazy.
Um, we were just talking rightbefore we got air, is that?
You know, sometimes it feelslike you're working on a lot,
this, you're looking at a lot,and then sometimes it's slow.
(01:41):
I mean, I guess that's you know, in real estate, but nwa
specifically, you know you'vegot a lot of good stats pulled
up on your computer.
I know we'll dive into mediumhome prices, inventory levels,
uh, hot zip codes we have hereinvestor angles.
Um, you know, for me personally,I've seen, you know some deals.
(02:03):
It feels like I've looked atlike 10 or 20 deals and then
some some weeks it's been.
You know, for me personally,I've seen you know some deals.
It feels like I've I've lookedat like 10 or 20 deals and then
some some weeks it's been, youknow, only one or two.
Um, I feel like it's really anheavy.
And as far as leasing goes, youknow this is, summer is usually
pretty busy, like spring, andsummer is like you're, you want
to make sure you're all set tocapitalize on that.
Uh, on the rental side, Um,capitalize on that.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
Yeah, on the rental side, um, does it feel like rent
?
Uh, leases have slowed downover the I mean this year
comparatively to the last fewyears.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
Yeah, I have not seen a slowdown on it.
Honestly, on my propertiesright now, um, you know, I have
one summon rogers center 10 andum and fort smith's um, not
currently anything in springdale, but um, I think we saw for a
little bit that rents were askit, like some of this new
(02:53):
developmental rents weren't ashigh as what people were
thinking they were going to get.
Um, I think that's all.
I think that is starting to notbe, as I think it definitely
softened more like last, like inthe last year.
Yeah, um, on that, but it'sthat's such ebbs and flows on
nwa to, like you know, you mighthave a bunch of projects being
completed or you might have abunch of projects not moving
(03:16):
anywhere too.
Speaker 3 (03:16):
So yep, that makes sense and I mean realistically,
there's a lot more inventory onthe market rentals and, uh, you
know, and just inventory as faras homes for sale and and stuff
like that.
But, um, at the end of the day,we continue to have strong
numbers as far as, uh, folkscoming into northwest Arkansas,
which is great, and, uh, youknow, we're still in the time
(03:40):
macro where it's the mostunaffordable time to buy a house
ever, and so I think thosethings kind of continue to.
You know, for, at least fromyour perspective, it's going to
continue to help in an areawhere you have, you know, rents
that are well priced and ingreat areas it's going to be
easy to keep those filled, Ithink, for a while, until we see
(04:00):
any kind of shake in mortgagerates, any kind of significant
shake, I guess.
So I think most people would.
You know, if you keep up enough, I'll look at the 10-year
treasury most days, honestly,and we've been pretty stagnant
in mortgage rates and they've,you know, kind of ebbed and
flowed in really smallincrements, but we haven't seen
(04:20):
any big shifts anytime in thelast like basically six months
since trump's been in office.
So, anyway, it'll beinteresting to see what
continues there, um, you knowhow everything shakes out with
the fed chair and all that kindof stuff when, uh, when their
time's up in in their seat, um,and how things will change.
But it'll be, it'll beinteresting and and, uh, I think
(04:43):
we're, we're poised to be in agood spot.
So, uh, but overall I think youknow some things we want to kind
of hit on, uh, as far as kindof a mid-year, mid-year update,
looking at some of the statsacross tantos arkansas.
Really, this will be kind ofbenton and washington county and
we'll and we'll get specificinto these and and, uh, brian,
I'd love some of your input.
You know kind of what thisfeels like to you and things
(05:07):
like that.
But, uh, just to kind of give amarket overview single family
homes median sales pricecontinues to rise.
Uh, from last year we're up3.1% um in Benton County,
washington County is a littlebit higher than that.
And then when you look at andthat median sales price is
(05:27):
around $375,000, still pretty,or, excuse me, $386,000, still
pretty well below where the restof the country's at, which is
about four and a quarter orsomething like that median home
price in the United States.
So good to be still pretty wellunder that, but we're obviously
continuing to creep up.
And then something I think hasbeen really interesting to note
(05:51):
too, just in, you know, I thinkthis is where we'll see like for
investors or for anybody elsethe price per square foot, how
that's continued to trend up anddefinitely outpace inflation.
Every year Benton County hasgone up another 7.7% in price
per square foot for 24 to 25.
So any surprises there?
Speaker 2 (06:13):
No, I think you know 3% year over year.
I mean that feels about right.
You know like it feels kind ofstat like to us being invested
here.
It feels stagnant, like yousaid, kind of like same thing as
interest rates.
It seems like not a lot's, youknow not a lot's trading or not
a lot's moving, but that's still3% growth on prices.
(06:33):
And I think you know mostpeople, when they're real, you
know, investing in real estate,you underwrite for higher than
3% growth.
You know for higher than 3%growth.
So you're going to have toforce appreciation a little bit
more here and people that mayhave already forced appreciation
, it might make more sense tohold on to their assets until
(06:57):
interest rates come down.
Who knows, I'm no expert inthat crystal ball.
It comes down end of the year,next year and the next year.
Yeah, I couldn't tell you, butI think some people are in those
positions or something else tohappen, where there's a ton of
growth and not much more comes.
You know, just the grass, uh,outpaces, uh, what's built.
Speaker 3 (07:19):
So yep, absolutely so .
And then I think just kind ofgetting into kind of I mean
piggybacking on what you'resaying there benton county days
on market, uh, and I'm lookingat a chart here over the past 10
years, we're now back at, youknow, we're at 2018, 2019 levels
.
We're, um, you know, sittingaround 70 days on market on
(07:39):
average for a home to be sold,and so, uh, I think I think
that's super interesting thatwe're finally back.
If you see this chart, whichI'd go, a lot of this data I'm
pulling together from a resourcelocally called NWA.
Look so free marketing for them, but great resource to keep up
with some of this residentialmore micro data that we use
(08:02):
pretty regularly just talking toinvestors and letting them know
kind of how at least the singlefamily market's going.
But you'll really see kind ofthis V shape where we, you know,
really, from a 10 year chart,you know, days on market was
pretty high around 90 days andthen, obviously, as we get into
the COVID years, days on marketwas at their, you know, historic
(08:25):
lows, and then now we're kindof continuing to creep back up
into what we would call a morebalanced market, and so I think,
just something interesting tokeep in mind, you know, and to
consider as an investor and so,but a couple other things I mean
I guess that goes along withthat as well as current and I
think is one of the moreimportant metrics to continue to
(08:46):
kind of keep eyes on is currentinventory levels and kind of
where those are at.
We've talked in the past what wefeel like historically is
healthy inventory levels andthat would be anywhere from 12
months of supply to 18 months ofsupply and the way they come up
with these metrics.
If we were to not build anotherhome home today, uh, you know
(09:06):
how long until we would run outof the inventory that we have,
and typically a 12 to 18 month,um, you know, inventory level is
kind of where it would be asconsidered as a healthy and
balanced market.
And we're now up from fourmonths of supply to five months
of supply 25% increase.
It's going up, shifting moretowards balance, but obviously
(09:30):
we're still, you know, half ofwhere they would really call a
balanced market.
So any surprises there?
Speaker 2 (09:36):
No, I think you hit on a couple of things that we'll
actually be talking in the nextepisode is investing strategies
, like days on markets, and youknow the opportunity to build.
You know with this keep, youknow swinging hammers and not
being able to keep up withdemand but still having to keep
be cost conscious, you know ifyou can make the cost work then
then you know there isopportunities and we'll be
(09:59):
diving in that one.
On the next one, um, but yeah,I think also, yeah, like to your
point I I had, we had a opinionof about it's what's called a
broker opinion of value, wherebroker like you might give a
proposal before someone actuallysays, hey, I need you to list
it like I don't need a proposal,let's just get the best price.
Some people might, you knowit's more formal and commercial
(10:21):
real estate and multifamily toget.
You know, take it to a couplebrokers and see what their
opinion is on taking it out,what they think you could sell
it for.
And that was on one of theapartments we looked at.
We didn't don't in no positionneed to sell or anything that
we're not planning to sell itfor a couple years.
But you should be getting anopinion.
Just like you're tracking yournet worth, if you're tracking
(10:43):
your incomes and expenses, youshould be tracking your asset
value.
So you know the broker opinionvalue came back less than it did
last year and it's been hummingalong Like it's been.
Like.
Occupancy is great, you know,just now getting rents up.
So they're probably, you know,seeing softening to where maybe
(11:06):
they don't want toover-guarantee a price that they
can sell for right now.
Sure, maybe that's.
Maybe they oversold onsomething previously, but
Interesting I think it is.
You know at least their opinionon where the market is, you
know yeah down from last year.
Speaker 3 (11:21):
So absolutely, I think that's wise to uh,
especially if you're already aninvestor and have those, that
option to be able to shop ataround every now and then to
kind of see where things aretrending and get opinions super
valuable and kind of can helpyou.
Just like this, this metric, uh, where months of supply is, can
give you an idea on wherethings are trending.
(11:42):
But uh, okay, we're kind ofwhen you're looking for market
updates.
Speaker 2 (11:45):
I think that'd be good for the listen that.
You know there's a coupledifferent.
Yeah, here the nwa investingpodcast.
Um, you know, I think that youknow that rbs skyline report.
It's always a great one to lookback.
You can find that online.
I think we may have it linkedin one of our episodes on
nwainvestingcom.
(12:07):
What other resource youmentioned, nwa?
Look, that's a good resource,yeah.
Speaker 3 (12:13):
NWA.
Look, I know there's some otherresources online that you can
kind of keep track of whereNorthwest Arkansas stands
against others.
I think there's a.
I want to say there's aresource out there out of St
Louis that I don't know ifyou've ever seen that before,
but they'll keep track ofcurrent inventory levels and
keep everything really pretty upto date on this Collier and
(12:35):
Associates put out stuff like dothey send you stuff?
nwa.
Look is is uh done by someoneat collier and associates, but
collier specifically does not Isaw lindsey puts out a pretty
good one too.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
I don't know if you get that one uh about like days
on market and stuff like that.
Yeah, axios is a good.
I've seen some local.
You you know that's morepolitical.
Zero Flux is a newsletter.
I signed up for it for somemarketing.
And then NWA Council is a goodone.
(13:08):
If you go to NWA Council Idon't know if that's org or com,
but they have good data.
It's not as real-time as someof this other stuff, but they've
got a lot of good data.
Speaker 3 (13:21):
Yeah, a lot of good things, I think, to keep up with
, and to me, I think I mean ametric that I keep the most
up-to-date with is currentinventory, because I think
supply and demand, more thananything, is going to continue
to tell the story on.
You know how things are goingto go as an investor.
Speaker 2 (13:39):
Economics 101 exactly like that got my major in
economics, minor in psychology.
Yes, sir, I love it.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
That's good for real estate right there, uh, but I
think so I want to.
I want to move on to, uh, thisone because I think this is an
important metric to kind of hiton, and we'll hit on a couple
few metrics before we wrap uphere.
But, um, what, what's yourguess on this is these are the
top 10 towns in Benton Countywith the number of sales year to
date.
Who do you think is toppingthat list right now in Benton
(14:08):
County?
Number of sales, yeah, numberof sales residential, of course,
um, rogers, uh, bella V vistabella, best, actually.
So it goes bella vistabittenville, right behind it, um
, and then rogers at numberthree.
So I think the most interestingone on this list, though, uh,
(14:30):
that I continue to watch.
I mean center 10 has gone downquite a bit.
I think center 10 would wouldhave been pretty well up there.
That's gonna going to be mynext guess.
Are they top ten?
They're top six now, but Ithink they would have been.
Pea Ridge has gone ahead ofthem now.
I mean, a lot of investorslistening to this probably know
the issues they're having withwastewater and stuff in
(14:52):
Centerton and how that's reallycut down on the inventory levels
out there and stuff like that,but I think a surprise one on
here is is Lowell.
So Lowell, I've been talkingabout it for a long time.
I love Lowell personally.
I think it's I think there's alot of great opportunities
coming.
I mean, the reality is there'snot a lot of you know,
(15:13):
apartments or not a lot ofinventory of you know warehouse
or any of the other categoriesyou look at, and so a lot of
it's new development, justbecause it's kind of been
underdeveloped for so long.
But I think this will be a citythat will continue to to thrive
just because it's in the middleof everything in northwest
(15:34):
Arkansas easy access, it's got alot of land right now and, and
so I think there's a lot ofopportunity.
But they're above Springdale ina number of residential sales
and then they've got a lot ofneighborhoods coming up, a lot
more things that they'rebuilding out there or around
there that I think will continueto benefit.
So I think lowell will be one towatch for sure I agree, shout
(15:56):
out jb hunt, shout out jb huntbig time.
So, uh, but I want to go realquick before we uh wrap up and
talk, talk through a few ofthese things in Washington
County as well.
So, similarly, uh, your mediansales price has gone up 4.7
percent to last year, um,sitting at around 350,000.
So pretty significantly lessthan Benton County $30,000 less
(16:19):
than Benton County on the mediansale price.
Of course, springdale,fayetteville, those are going to
be your main two, but there's alot of other sub markets in
there that are a lot moreaffordable, um that there's a
lot of building happening there,and so, really, that's kind of
where you're getting that number.
Um, you know Farmington, uh,west Fork, a lot of others with
new neighborhoods popping up,stuff like that.
(16:40):
Price per square foot, though,again, this has been, this is
one that has continued tooutpace inflation, not at the
rate that Benton County has, butup 4.7 percent to last year,
continuing to be stableappreciation.
And then days on market, verysimilar to Benton County, really
, uh, really right at the same.
They're at 14% to last year.
(17:02):
Days on market at 70 days, andthen, uh, I think I mean again
that current inventory uh number.
There they didn't have anyincrease at all and they're
still pretty well below uh wherethey should be, compared to.
Uh, what a balanced market wouldbe sitting at four months of
supply.
So I mean, we've talked aboutit a lot.
(17:25):
Washington County wouldobviously, most of it be made up
by Fayetteville and Springdale,and Fayetteville's kind of been
in this housing crisis for abit.
Not a ton of developmenthappening in Fayetteville
necessarily, but I think some onthe radar and a lot of people
are pushing for that inFayetteville necessarily, but I
think some on the radar and alot of people are pushing for
(17:45):
that.
But again, I mean very much theuniversity continues to grow.
There's not enough housing forthem or the residents, and so,
anyway, cool to see, kind ofwhere those months of supply are
.
I think Any surprises there foryou, brandon?
Speaker 2 (17:56):
No, I think Fayetteville is still growing
very fast and, politics aside,there's incredible opportunity
there.
I would be interested to trackand maybe next time when we do
the mid-end of the year 2025, totrack household income too.
(18:19):
Yeah, absolutely, who's risingthe fastest and you know, I have
that somewhere too, but, uh, Ithink that's as an investor.
That's something a stat wouldcontinue to look at too.
Who you know.
Make sure for a builder, makesure they can afford that new
home, or make sure they can paythose rents and still have, yeah
, disposable income.
(18:39):
Absolutely agree.
Speaker 3 (18:39):
So I think, overall, I mean we're, we're still- in a
really good spot as far as thepay those rents and still have
disposable income, absolutelyAgreed.
So I think, overall, I meanwe're still in a really good
spot as far as the housingmarket goes and I think you know
that's going to continue tohelp investors, it's going to
continue to help homebuyers.
And then, just overall, I thinkthe most interesting is I look,
you know, northwest Arkansascompared to the rest of the
(19:02):
United States.
I think what you'll see in thenews is that there's a housing
crash right now and that pricesare dropping 15%, 20%.
You look at the United States.
The United States overall is up30.6% in active listings year
over year, is up 30.6% in activelistings year over year, while
(19:26):
we're at half of that, around13% to 16%.
You know listings year overyear.
So we obviously cannot continueto keep up with the demand
right now, as the rest of theUnited States is, and so
therefore, we're continuing tosee stable appreciation and I
think we'll continue for a while.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
So another shout out to Fayetteville, arkansas.
I wanted to pull this up.
Before we got up it was a topUS city that is surging in jobs
and talent.
You know that size of 2025.
So some of these smallbusinesses are struggling.
You know Fayetteville isbringing in massive jobs and
talent per capita income of$90,000.
So massive corporateinvestments are transforming
(20:04):
local economies like Bayville.
Per the article.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
Love it, well cool.
Well, we wanted to just kind oftalk through Washington County
and Benton County stats, kind of.
As we're at the mid-year pointhere and as the RVES skyline
ends up dropping sometime in thenext few months, we'll kind of
go back and walk through kind ofwhat you know what that data
has to say as well about thefirst half of 2025 as well.
(20:30):
But overall, things continue totrend pretty strong and a lot
of great indicators in ourmarket and for investors and for
homebuyers.
So thanks again for listeningto the podcast and we'll see you
on the next See you guys.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
See you guys Again.
Thank you guys for tuning in.
I'm going to go ahead and listsome sponsors off here.
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Speaker 2 (25:19):
Special thanks to one of our sponsors, who I've
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Speaker 1 (26:07):
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Speaker 2 (26:12):
Don't forget to connect with us on Instagram,
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Speaker 3 (26:18):
Have a question you want us to cover, send it our
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Thanks for listening and we'llsee you next time.
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