August 8, 2025 • 13 mins
In this episode, the discussion kicks off with a welcome and introduction, followed by a sponsor message from Real Approved Inc. The conversation then delves into future home price increases and the regulatory impacts on housing completions. AI-driven analysis offers insights into housing markets and the implications for the job market. The episode examines the Bank of Canada's recent rate cuts with input from economists. Middlesex Centre's housing initiatives and development plans are highlighted. The discussion also covers the latest trends in the Toronto real estate market. The episode concludes with closing remarks and a sponsor reminder.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Welcome to the Ontario Mortgage & Real EstateInsights Podcast, your go-to source for the
(00:04):
latest developments, trends, and regulatorychanges in the industry.
I'm your host, Steve Hamoen, here to provideyou with insights sourced from reputable news
outlets to help you stay informed and makewell-informed decisions.
This podcast is brought to you by Real ApprovedInc., a trusted mortgage brokerage dedicated to
(00:26):
helping Canadians achieve their homeownershipdreams.
Visit realapproved.ca to learn more about howour experienced team can assist you with your
mortgage needs.
Let's dive into today's episode.
So, Janine, let's start with this compellingreport from Concordia University’s John Molson
(00:46):
School of Business and Equiton.
They're saying that if the housing supplytrends continue as they are, Canada could see
some substantial home price increases by 2032.
Yes, Steve, and the report highlights thatToronto and Vancouver would lead this price
appreciation.
The research, led by Erkan Yönder, usedartificial intelligence to analyze housing
(01:07):
supply across major cities, focusing onToronto, Montreal, Vancouver, and Calgary.
It's quite a comprehensive study, consideringvarious factors like regulatory policies and
construction costs.
The numbers are pretty staggering.
The study suggests that without intervention,median home prices could reach $1.8 million in
(01:28):
Toronto and $2.8 million in Vancouver by 2032.
That's a huge increase from today's prices.
Absolutely, Steve.
But what's interesting is that the study alsoshows potential solutions.
For instance, doubling the current housingcompletions in Toronto and Vancouver could
(01:48):
bring those median prices down to $1.6 millionand $2.5 million, respectively.
It seems like boosting supply could really makea difference.
And, Janine, they also looked at how regulatorychanges could impact housing completions.
A 10% decrease in building restrictions couldincrease completions by nearly 10%, and cutting
(02:10):
approval delays could add another 3% tocompletions.
Right, but it's not all about the regulations.
The study warns that a 10% rise in input costscould reduce housing completions by 25% to 35%.
That includes costs like materials, taxes,fees, and labor, which would impact
(02:33):
apartment-style projects the most.
It's a complex situation, for sure.
The AI-driven analysis provides a dynamic viewof how policy and global market conditions are
shaping Canada's housing markets.
It's fascinating to see how data-driven modelsare now being used to quantify these
complicated interplays.
(02:53):
And the city-specific results are quitetelling, too.
In Montreal, for example, price growthcontinues regardless of supply due to low
completions relative to demand.
Meanwhile, Calgary's housing prices seem moreresponsive to population changes than supply
levels.
Christopher Wein from Equiton Developmentsmentioned that this AI platform is a
(03:16):
game-changer for forecasting.
It's useful for identifying opportunities andmanaging risks in the real estate market.
Yes, and the study concludes that whileregulatory reform and cost stabilization are
necessary, they aren't sufficient.
Challenges like skilled labor shortages andconstruction timelines still pose significant
(03:39):
hurdles.
Yönder even suggested that diversifying growthbeyond Canada's largest cities might be
necessary to meet long-term housing needs.
Janine, the latest jobs report from StatisticsCanada has certainly stirred things up in the
financial markets.
The economy lost 40,800 jobs in July, which isquite a stark contrast from the 83,000 jobs
(04:02):
added in June.
This unexpected downturn has shifted bothmarket and economist expectations regarding the
Bank of Canada's future interest rate moves.
Yes, Steve, and it's really concerning to seesuch a significant loss in jobs, especially
when analysts were expecting an addition of13,500 jobs.
(04:23):
The unemployment rate remains at a multi-yearhigh of 6.9%, which is troubling.
It seems like the private sector took thehardest hit, with full-time employment dropping
across various industries.
Indeed, Janine.
The Canadian dollar took a bit of a hitinitially but managed to recover most of its
losses.
(04:43):
However, bond yields softened, and market oddsfor a rate cut by the Bank of Canada have
increased.
Currently, there's about a 38% chance of aquarter-point rate cut at the next policy
meeting in September, and more than a 50%chance by the end of October.
It seems that the decline in employment wasmostly concentrated in British Columbia and
(05:04):
Alberta, with factors like wildfirespotentially affecting those areas.
But on a national level, there were somepositive notes with sectors like educational
services and transportation showing jobincreases.
Still, the overall picture is worrisome.
Alexandra Brown from Capital Economicshighlighted that this jobs report makes a
(05:25):
strong case for the Bank of Canada to considerrate cuts soon.
But she also warned that a strong ConsumerPrice Index report next week could pause any
immediate action.
It's clear that while the jobs data is weak,inflation figures will play a crucial role in
the decision-making process.
And Veronica Clark from Citi mentioned thatdespite the job losses, the unemployment rate
(05:48):
held steady only because labor forceparticipation dropped.
It's not a positive sign when the participationrate is declining.
This could indicate broader economic issuesthat need addressing.
Exactly, Janine.
Economists like Andrew Grantham from CIBCCapital Markets and Douglas Porter from BMO
Capital Markets are pointing out that while thejobs report is weak, there's still more data to
(06:12):
come before the Bank of Canada's next ratedecision.
They're keenly watching the upcoming employmentand inflation data releases.
It's a moment of uncertainty for sure, Steve.
Leslie Preston from TD Economics pointed outthat although the unemployment rate is steady,
it's due to a decline in labor force growth.
This stagnation isn't ideal and could keep theunemployment rate from rising too high despite
(06:37):
weak labor demand.
Taylor Schleich, Ethan Currie, and Noah Blackfrom National Bank Financial noted that a
softer labor market should put downwardpressure on inflation, which might support rate
cuts.
However, they emphasize that the next twoConsumer Price Index reports will have a
significant impact on the Bank of Canada'sdecisions.
(06:57):
That's right, Steve.
Claire Fan from the Royal Bank of Canadabelieves that while the labor market is softer,
the worst of tariff-related damage might bebehind us.
She doesn't foresee further rate cuts from theBank of Canada, but it's clear that the
economic conditions are still evolving.
Middlesex Centre is making strides with thefederal government's Housing Accelerator Fund,
(07:22):
which is managed by the Canada Mortgage andHousing Corporation.
This initiative aims to enhance land useplanning and streamline development approval
processes to boost housing supply more rapidly.
Middlesex Centre will receive a total of $4.24million over four years, with the first
installment of over one million dollars alreadyin hand for 2025.
(07:43):
That's right, Steve.
This funding is a significant boost for themunicipality, allowing them to implement their
Housing Action Plan.
The goal is to create 645 new housing units bythe end of the program, and Middlesex Centre is
committed to achieving this in a timely andeffective manner.
It's wonderful to see this level of supportaimed at addressing housing needs.
(08:08):
Indeed, Janine.
An interesting aspect of the plan is the focuson ending exclusionary zoning.
Middlesex Centre is reviewing its Official Planand Zoning By-law to remove low-density zoning
restrictions, allowing for a broader range ofhousing options.
This includes affordable and social housing, aswell as mixed-use and higher-density
(08:28):
developments.
It's all about optimizing land use and reducingthe need for rezoning.
It's exciting to see Middlesex Centre takingsuch proactive steps.
By allowing up to four residential unitsas-of-right in fully serviced settlement areas,
they're really opening up possibilities formore diverse and inclusive communities.
(08:50):
The focus on increasing process efficiencythrough e-permitting and digital tools is also
commendable.
It's all about making the approval process moretransparent and user-friendly.
The municipality is also prioritizing rentaland affordable housing by establishing a
dedicated review pathway to expedite approvalsfor these types of developments.
(09:13):
By doing so, they can reduce time and costs,simplifying the process of bringing these
crucial housing types to market.
It's a strategic approach that could yieldsignificant benefits.
Yes, and Middlesex Centre is also working onCommunity Improvement Plans to provide wider
incentives for housing development.
This includes incentives for 'missing middle'housing, townhouses, and innovative
(09:35):
construction methods.
It's a comprehensive strategy that not onlyaddresses current needs but also anticipates
future demands.
The municipality is designing guidelines forAdditional Residential Units, which will
support their creation by providing a toolkitoutlining planning and building requirements.
This kind of forward-thinking approach couldsimplify the permitting process and encourage
(09:59):
more developments.
Absolutely, Steve.
By assessing the feasibility of providingpre-reviewed ARU designs, Middlesex Centre is
demonstrating a commitment to innovation andefficiency.
It's encouraging to see them setting such astrong example for other municipalities.
Now, Janine, let's delve into Daniel Foch'srecent analysis on the Toronto real estate
(10:22):
market.
Despite the headlines proclaiming a rise insales, Foch argues that this doesn't
necessarily mean the market is back to itsprevious booming state.
That's right, Steve.
Foch points out that while sales are indeed upby 10.9 percent year-over-year, this increase
comes from a very low point last year.
(10:43):
So, while it looks impressive, it's more of arebound from a slow period rather than a full
recovery.
Exactly, Janine.
It's important to look beyond the surface.
The average home price in the Greater TorontoArea is down 5.5 percent from last July.
Detached homes are down 5.1 percent, and condoshave dropped by 9.3 percent.
(11:07):
These aren't just minor adjustments; they'resignificant corrections.
And with these price drops, affordability seemsto be improving, at least superficially.
More buyers are entering the market becauseprices have come down to a level that's more
accessible.
But it's a complex picture, as mortgage ratesremain high and qualification is still tight.
(11:28):
That's the crux of the issue, Janine.
Even though more homes are available, withactive listings up 26.2 percent, it's not due
to new supply.
It's the existing inventory that's takinglonger to sell, indicating a demand-side
problem.
Buyers are hesitant and homes are lingering onthe market.
The condo market, in particular, is feeling thepinch with significant price drops, especially
(11:53):
in the 905 area.
Incentives and price reductions are common assellers try to entice buyers.
It's a challenging environment for thoseholding pre-construction condos.
Daniel Foch also highlights that the marketlacks momentum.
There's no urgency to buy because waiting couldyield better deals.
(12:14):
This lack of urgency is reshaping buyerbehavior, leading to more negotiation and
reduced seller expectations.
Yes, and this psychology shift means that whilesales volumes may rise, it's often due to
opportunistic buying rather than a genuinemarket recovery.
Buyers are looking for bargains, and sellersare adjusting their expectations accordingly.
(12:38):
Foch notes that the real momentum will comewhen interest rates ease and sellers adjust
their expectations to what buyers can afford.
Until then, we'll likely see this kind ofgradual, sideways movement in the market.
It's a waiting game, Steve.
The market is trying to stabilize, but it's notbursting back to life just yet.
As Foch points out, understanding these nuancesis crucial for anyone involved in the market
(13:02):
right now.
Absolutely, Janine.
And with that, we'll wrap up today's episode.
Thanks for tuning in to another episode of theOntario Mortgage & Real Estate Insights
Podcast.
We hope you found today's insights valuable asyou navigate the world of mortgages and real
estate.
Before you go, a quick reminder (13:20):
Real Approved is here to make your mortgage journey smoother.
Whether you're buying your first home orrefinancing, their experienced team is ready to
guide you with personalized support every stepof the way.
Visit realapproved.ca to get started and takethe next step toward achieving your
homeownership goals. Catch you next time, and stay informed with the latest industry
(13:43):
insights!
Welcome to the Ontario Mortgage & Real EstateInsights Podcast, your go-to source for the
(00:04):
latest developments, trends, and regulatorychanges in the industry.
I'm your host, Steve Hamoen, here to provideyou with insights sourced from reputable news
outlets to help you stay informed and makewell-informed decisions.
This podcast is brought to you by Real ApprovedInc., a trusted mortgage brokerage dedicated to
(00:26):
helping Canadians achieve their homeownershipdreams.
Visit realapproved.ca to learn more about howour experienced team can assist you with your
mortgage needs.
Let's dive into today's episode.
So, Janine, let's start with this compellingreport from Concordia University’s John Molson
(00:46):
School of Business and Equiton.
They're saying that if the housing supplytrends continue as they are, Canada could see
some substantial home price increases by 2032.
Yes, Steve, and the report highlights thatToronto and Vancouver would lead this price
appreciation.
The research, led by Erkan Yönder, usedartificial intelligence to analyze housing
(01:07):
supply across major cities, focusing onToronto, Montreal, Vancouver, and Calgary.
It's quite a comprehensive study, consideringvarious factors like regulatory policies and
construction costs.
The numbers are pretty staggering.
The study suggests that without intervention,median home prices could reach $1.8 million in
(01:28):
Toronto and $2.8 million in Vancouver by 2032.
That's a huge increase from today's prices.
Absolutely, Steve.
But what's interesting is that the study alsoshows potential solutions.
For instance, doubling the current housingcompletions in Toronto and Vancouver could
(01:48):
bring those median prices down to $1.6 millionand $2.5 million, respectively.
It seems like boosting supply could really makea difference.
And, Janine, they also looked at how regulatorychanges could impact housing completions.
A 10% decrease in building restrictions couldincrease completions by nearly 10%, and cutting
(02:10):
approval delays could add another 3% tocompletions.
Right, but it's not all about the regulations.
The study warns that a 10% rise in input costscould reduce housing completions by 25% to 35%.
That includes costs like materials, taxes,fees, and labor, which would impact
(02:33):
apartment-style projects the most.
It's a complex situation, for sure.
The AI-driven analysis provides a dynamic viewof how policy and global market conditions are
shaping Canada's housing markets.
It's fascinating to see how data-driven modelsare now being used to quantify these
complicated interplays.
(02:53):
And the city-specific results are quitetelling, too.
In Montreal, for example, price growthcontinues regardless of supply due to low
completions relative to demand.
Meanwhile, Calgary's housing prices seem moreresponsive to population changes than supply
levels.
Christopher Wein from Equiton Developmentsmentioned that this AI platform is a
(03:16):
game-changer for forecasting.
It's useful for identifying opportunities andmanaging risks in the real estate market.
Yes, and the study concludes that whileregulatory reform and cost stabilization are
necessary, they aren't sufficient.
Challenges like skilled labor shortages andconstruction timelines still pose significant
(03:39):
hurdles.
Yönder even suggested that diversifying growthbeyond Canada's largest cities might be
necessary to meet long-term housing needs.
Janine, the latest jobs report from StatisticsCanada has certainly stirred things up in the
financial markets.
The economy lost 40,800 jobs in July, which isquite a stark contrast from the 83,000 jobs
(04:02):
added in June.
This unexpected downturn has shifted bothmarket and economist expectations regarding the
Bank of Canada's future interest rate moves.
Yes, Steve, and it's really concerning to seesuch a significant loss in jobs, especially
when analysts were expecting an addition of13,500 jobs.
(04:23):
The unemployment rate remains at a multi-yearhigh of 6.9%, which is troubling.
It seems like the private sector took thehardest hit, with full-time employment dropping
across various industries.
Indeed, Janine.
The Canadian dollar took a bit of a hitinitially but managed to recover most of its
losses.
(04:43):
However, bond yields softened, and market oddsfor a rate cut by the Bank of Canada have
increased.
Currently, there's about a 38% chance of aquarter-point rate cut at the next policy
meeting in September, and more than a 50%chance by the end of October.
It seems that the decline in employment wasmostly concentrated in British Columbia and
(05:04):
Alberta, with factors like wildfirespotentially affecting those areas.
But on a national level, there were somepositive notes with sectors like educational
services and transportation showing jobincreases.
Still, the overall picture is worrisome.
Alexandra Brown from Capital Economicshighlighted that this jobs report makes a
(05:25):
strong case for the Bank of Canada to considerrate cuts soon.
But she also warned that a strong ConsumerPrice Index report next week could pause any
immediate action.
It's clear that while the jobs data is weak,inflation figures will play a crucial role in
the decision-making process.
And Veronica Clark from Citi mentioned thatdespite the job losses, the unemployment rate
(05:48):
held steady only because labor forceparticipation dropped.
It's not a positive sign when the participationrate is declining.
This could indicate broader economic issuesthat need addressing.
Exactly, Janine.
Economists like Andrew Grantham from CIBCCapital Markets and Douglas Porter from BMO
Capital Markets are pointing out that while thejobs report is weak, there's still more data to
(06:12):
come before the Bank of Canada's next ratedecision.
They're keenly watching the upcoming employmentand inflation data releases.
It's a moment of uncertainty for sure, Steve.
Leslie Preston from TD Economics pointed outthat although the unemployment rate is steady,
it's due to a decline in labor force growth.
This stagnation isn't ideal and could keep theunemployment rate from rising too high despite
(06:37):
weak labor demand.
Taylor Schleich, Ethan Currie, and Noah Blackfrom National Bank Financial noted that a
softer labor market should put downwardpressure on inflation, which might support rate
cuts.
However, they emphasize that the next twoConsumer Price Index reports will have a
significant impact on the Bank of Canada'sdecisions.
(06:57):
That's right, Steve.
Claire Fan from the Royal Bank of Canadabelieves that while the labor market is softer,
the worst of tariff-related damage might bebehind us.
She doesn't foresee further rate cuts from theBank of Canada, but it's clear that the
economic conditions are still evolving.
Middlesex Centre is making strides with thefederal government's Housing Accelerator Fund,
(07:22):
which is managed by the Canada Mortgage andHousing Corporation.
This initiative aims to enhance land useplanning and streamline development approval
processes to boost housing supply more rapidly.
Middlesex Centre will receive a total of $4.24million over four years, with the first
installment of over one million dollars alreadyin hand for 2025.
(07:43):
That's right, Steve.
This funding is a significant boost for themunicipality, allowing them to implement their
Housing Action Plan.
The goal is to create 645 new housing units bythe end of the program, and Middlesex Centre is
committed to achieving this in a timely andeffective manner.
It's wonderful to see this level of supportaimed at addressing housing needs.
(08:08):
Indeed, Janine.
An interesting aspect of the plan is the focuson ending exclusionary zoning.
Middlesex Centre is reviewing its Official Planand Zoning By-law to remove low-density zoning
restrictions, allowing for a broader range ofhousing options.
This includes affordable and social housing, aswell as mixed-use and higher-density
(08:28):
developments.
It's all about optimizing land use and reducingthe need for rezoning.
It's exciting to see Middlesex Centre takingsuch proactive steps.
By allowing up to four residential unitsas-of-right in fully serviced settlement areas,
they're really opening up possibilities formore diverse and inclusive communities.
(08:50):
The focus on increasing process efficiencythrough e-permitting and digital tools is also
commendable.
It's all about making the approval process moretransparent and user-friendly.
The municipality is also prioritizing rentaland affordable housing by establishing a
dedicated review pathway to expedite approvalsfor these types of developments.
(09:13):
By doing so, they can reduce time and costs,simplifying the process of bringing these
crucial housing types to market.
It's a strategic approach that could yieldsignificant benefits.
Yes, and Middlesex Centre is also working onCommunity Improvement Plans to provide wider
incentives for housing development.
This includes incentives for 'missing middle'housing, townhouses, and innovative
(09:35):
construction methods.
It's a comprehensive strategy that not onlyaddresses current needs but also anticipates
future demands.
The municipality is designing guidelines forAdditional Residential Units, which will
support their creation by providing a toolkitoutlining planning and building requirements.
This kind of forward-thinking approach couldsimplify the permitting process and encourage
(09:59):
more developments.
Absolutely, Steve.
By assessing the feasibility of providingpre-reviewed ARU designs, Middlesex Centre is
demonstrating a commitment to innovation andefficiency.
It's encouraging to see them setting such astrong example for other municipalities.
Now, Janine, let's delve into Daniel Foch'srecent analysis on the Toronto real estate
(10:22):
market.
Despite the headlines proclaiming a rise insales, Foch argues that this doesn't
necessarily mean the market is back to itsprevious booming state.
That's right, Steve.
Foch points out that while sales are indeed upby 10.9 percent year-over-year, this increase
comes from a very low point last year.
(10:43):
So, while it looks impressive, it's more of arebound from a slow period rather than a full
recovery.
Exactly, Janine.
It's important to look beyond the surface.
The average home price in the Greater TorontoArea is down 5.5 percent from last July.
Detached homes are down 5.1 percent, and condoshave dropped by 9.3 percent.
(11:07):
These aren't just minor adjustments; they'resignificant corrections.
And with these price drops, affordability seemsto be improving, at least superficially.
More buyers are entering the market becauseprices have come down to a level that's more
accessible.
But it's a complex picture, as mortgage ratesremain high and qualification is still tight.
(11:28):
That's the crux of the issue, Janine.
Even though more homes are available, withactive listings up 26.2 percent, it's not due
to new supply.
It's the existing inventory that's takinglonger to sell, indicating a demand-side
problem.
Buyers are hesitant and homes are lingering onthe market.
The condo market, in particular, is feeling thepinch with significant price drops, especially
(11:53):
in the 905 area.
Incentives and price reductions are common assellers try to entice buyers.
It's a challenging environment for thoseholding pre-construction condos.
Daniel Foch also highlights that the marketlacks momentum.
There's no urgency to buy because waiting couldyield better deals.
(12:14):
This lack of urgency is reshaping buyerbehavior, leading to more negotiation and
reduced seller expectations.
Yes, and this psychology shift means that whilesales volumes may rise, it's often due to
opportunistic buying rather than a genuinemarket recovery.
Buyers are looking for bargains, and sellersare adjusting their expectations accordingly.
(12:38):
Foch notes that the real momentum will comewhen interest rates ease and sellers adjust
their expectations to what buyers can afford.
Until then, we'll likely see this kind ofgradual, sideways movement in the market.
It's a waiting game, Steve.
The market is trying to stabilize, but it's notbursting back to life just yet.
As Foch points out, understanding these nuancesis crucial for anyone involved in the market
(13:02):
right now.
Absolutely, Janine.
And with that, we'll wrap up today's episode.
Thanks for tuning in to another episode of theOntario Mortgage & Real Estate Insights
Podcast.
We hope you found today's insights valuable asyou navigate the world of mortgages and real
estate.
Before you go, a quick reminder (13:20):
Real Approved is here to make your mortgage journey smoother.
Whether you're buying your first home orrefinancing, their experienced team is ready to
guide you with personalized support every stepof the way.
Visit realapproved.ca to get started and takethe next step toward achieving your
homeownership goals. Catch you next time, and stay informed with the latest industry
(13:43):
insights!
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