July 25, 2025 • 9 mins
In this episode, the conversation begins with a welcome to the Ontario Mortgage & Real Estate Insights Podcast, followed by a sponsor message from Real Approved Inc. The discussion then shifts to mortgage renewal strategies and predictions regarding interest rates. Insights into the CMHC market outlook and regional housing trends are provided, along with an analysis of the decline in construction and shifts in the rental market. The episode examines the Canadian Real Estate Association's national home sales forecast and highlights the importance of brokers in financial planning. The episode concludes with closing remarks and a sponsor mention from Real Approved Inc.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Welcome to the Ontario Mortgage & Real EstateInsights Podcast, your go-to source for the
(00:04):
latest developments, trends, and regulatorychanges in the industry.
I'm your host, Steve Hamoen, here to provideyou with insights sourced from reputable news
outlets to help you stay informed and makewell-informed decisions.
This podcast is brought to you by Real ApprovedInc., a trusted mortgage brokerage dedicated to
(00:25):
helping Canadians achieve their homeownershipdreams.
Visit realapproved.ca to learn more about howour experienced team can assist you with your
mortgage needs.
Let's dive into today's episode.
Today we're discussing what Canadians need toknow before renewing their mortgages,
especially if they're waiting for interestrates to drop.
(00:47):
The Bank of Canada will announce its nextinterest rate decision on July 30, and many are
hoping for some relief.
That's right, Steve.
With the overnight lending rate at 2.75 percentsince March, it's important for Canadians to
understand the factors at play.
Inflation is at 1.9 percent, which is withinthe Bank's target range.
(01:11):
So, a rate drop to control inflation seemsunlikely for now.
Indeed, Janine.
However, there's a study by TD Economicssuggesting that the softness in Canada's labor
market might lead to potential rate cuts laterthis year.
But we shouldn't rely solely on thispossibility when planning our mortgages.
(01:32):
Exactly, Steve.
It's crucial for homeowners to be proactive.
A significant portion of mortgages, around 60percent, are up for renewal between now and
2026, and about 40 percent of these areexpected to be renewed at higher rates.
This means it's more important than ever toshop around.
Shopping around is key.
(01:54):
Rates.ca highlights that lenders are competingfor business in today's slower housing market.
They might offer better rates or terms thanwhat is initially offered at renewal.
It's all about finding the best deal for yourspecific situation.
And let's not forget that the lowest rate isn'talways the best rate.
Some low-rate mortgages come with policyrestrictions that could end up costing more in
(02:18):
the long run.
It's important for homeowners to understand thedetails before signing anything.
Absolutely.
Reviewing your financial situation is alsovital.
Changes in income or expenses might affect whatterms are best for you.
Adjustments in amortization periods, paymentfrequency, or even switching between fixed and
(02:39):
variable rates could be necessary.
It all comes down to being informed andprepared.
Whether you're considering a Home Equity Lineof Credit or refinancing, renewal time can be
an opportunity to align your mortgage with yourlife goals.
Always consider your future plans beforelocking into new terms.
(02:59):
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation hasreleased its summer market outlook, and it's
projecting a continued cooling in the housingmarket through 2025.
This cooling trend seems to be driven by acombination of trade tensions, economic
uncertainty, and slower population growth.
(03:19):
Home prices are expected to fall by about twopercent this year, with even steeper drops
anticipated in Ontario and British Columbia.
That's right, Janine.
The Canadian average home price is projected todecrease from six hundred eighty-nine thousand
six hundred nineteen dollars in 2024 tosomewhere between six hundred seventy-six
thousand nine hundred nine and six hundredseventy-nine thousand one hundred seven dollars
(03:44):
in 2025.
It's interesting to note that many home buyersand developers are adopting a 'wait-and-see'
approach, likely due to the weaker economicgrowth and ongoing trade tensions.
It's quite a shift, Steve.
Ontario and British Columbia are facing thelargest price corrections.
The high costs and reduced investor activity inthe condominium market are really dampening
(04:08):
demand in these areas.
But it's not all bleak news.
Quebec, for instance, is experiencing a slowerdecline in housing activity, benefiting from
stronger market momentum and more stable buyersentiment.
Yes, while some regions are faring better thanothers, the overall picture is still
challenging.
The CMHC report also mentions trade tensions asa significant factor driving economic
(04:32):
headwinds.
With tariffs between Canada and the UnitedStates expected to peak in the second half of
2025, these pressures are contributing toinflation rising above three percent by
mid-2026 and a likely modest recession thisyear.
And let's not forget about the constructionactivity, Steve.
Housing starts are projected to decline fromtwo hundred forty-five thousand three hundred
(04:57):
sixty-seven units in 2024 to between twohundred twenty-four thousand nine hundred
forty-eight and two hundred thirty-seventhousand eight hundred thirty-four units in
2025.
While multi-unit construction remains high byhistorical standards, we're seeing regional
variations with strong activity in AtlanticCanada, the Prairies, and Quebec, but a sharp
(05:19):
decline in Ontario and British Columbia.
Absolutely, Janine.
Many condominium projects are being delayed,canceled, or converted to rentals due to missed
presale targets and an increase in unsoldinventory.
However, rental markets are easing as newsupply comes online and demand softens.
Vacancy rates are rising slightly in majorcenters, although rents continue to increase at
(05:43):
smaller rates compared to recent years.
It's a complex landscape, but there's hope onthe horizon.
CMHC anticipates a gradual recovery beginningin 2026 as trade tensions ease, economic
confidence improves, and mortgage ratesmoderate.
However, affordability remains a criticalissue, especially in higher-cost markets where
(06:07):
many households are still priced out of themarket.
It's essential for potential buyers to stayinformed and prepared for these changes.
As we delve into the latest market trends, theCanadian Real Estate Association has recently
adjusted its expectations for national homesales, forecasting a three percent decline
compared to last year.
(06:28):
This drop is largely attributed to highinterest rates and ongoing trade tensions with
the United States.
That's right, Steve.
While the overall market appears cooler, thisdoesn't mean brokers are sitting idle.
In fact, many are preparing for a busy secondhalf of the year.
Despite the broader market challenges, there'sstill a lot of activity happening.
(06:50):
It seems like there's a shift from sellers to amore balanced market, which could benefit
buyers.
Absolutely, Janine.
In places like Alberta, where the marketdynamics are slightly different, brokers like
Renée Huse from Spire Mortgage are observingincreased inventory and active buyers.
It's an opportunity for those who are ready tomake their move, especially with balanced
(07:12):
conditions offering more negotiation power.
And it's not just Alberta.
Across Canada, we're seeing that inventorylevels have risen.
This means more choice for buyers, particularlythose with job security looking to lock down a
home for the long term.
It's a positive sign for first-time buyers andthose who have been waiting for a more
(07:34):
favorable market.
However, we mustn't overlook the economicuncertainties influenced by trade tensions,
particularly with the United States.
While some buyers are taking advantage of thecurrent conditions, others remain cautious,
waiting on the sidelines.
It's a complex environment, but one whereinformed decisions can still lead to successful
(07:55):
outcomes.
Exactly, Steve.
And for brokers, the focus is not only onpurchase markets but also on helping clients
with renewals and financial planning.
With many homeowners facing higher rates andcost-of-living challenges, the role of brokers
in providing holistic financial advice is morecritical than ever.
It's clear that the demand for comprehensivefinancial guidance remains strong.
(08:20):
Brokers are gearing up to assist clients beyondjust the immediate purchase needs, addressing
broader financial concerns during theseuncertain times.
This proactive approach ensures continuedbusiness and client support.
That's right.
As we move through the rest of the year, thoselong, in-depth conversations with clients will
be invaluable.
(08:41):
It's about creating a supportive environmentwhere homeowners and buyers feel equipped to
navigate the economic landscape.
Thanks for tuning in to another episode of theOntario Mortgage & Real Estate Insights
Podcast.
We hope you found today's insights valuable asyou navigate the world of mortgages and real
estate.
Before you go, a quick reminder (09:01):
Real Approved is here to make your mortgage journey smoother.
Whether you're buying your first home orrefinancing, their experienced team is ready to
guide you with personalized support every stepof the way.
Visit realapproved.ca to get started and takethe next step toward achieving your
(09:22):
homeownership goals. Catch you next time, and stay informed with the latest industry
insights!
Welcome to the Ontario Mortgage & Real EstateInsights Podcast, your go-to source for the
(00:04):
latest developments, trends, and regulatorychanges in the industry.
I'm your host, Steve Hamoen, here to provideyou with insights sourced from reputable news
outlets to help you stay informed and makewell-informed decisions.
This podcast is brought to you by Real ApprovedInc., a trusted mortgage brokerage dedicated to
(00:25):
helping Canadians achieve their homeownershipdreams.
Visit realapproved.ca to learn more about howour experienced team can assist you with your
mortgage needs.
Let's dive into today's episode.
Today we're discussing what Canadians need toknow before renewing their mortgages,
especially if they're waiting for interestrates to drop.
(00:47):
The Bank of Canada will announce its nextinterest rate decision on July 30, and many are
hoping for some relief.
That's right, Steve.
With the overnight lending rate at 2.75 percentsince March, it's important for Canadians to
understand the factors at play.
Inflation is at 1.9 percent, which is withinthe Bank's target range.
(01:11):
So, a rate drop to control inflation seemsunlikely for now.
Indeed, Janine.
However, there's a study by TD Economicssuggesting that the softness in Canada's labor
market might lead to potential rate cuts laterthis year.
But we shouldn't rely solely on thispossibility when planning our mortgages.
(01:32):
Exactly, Steve.
It's crucial for homeowners to be proactive.
A significant portion of mortgages, around 60percent, are up for renewal between now and
2026, and about 40 percent of these areexpected to be renewed at higher rates.
This means it's more important than ever toshop around.
Shopping around is key.
(01:54):
Rates.ca highlights that lenders are competingfor business in today's slower housing market.
They might offer better rates or terms thanwhat is initially offered at renewal.
It's all about finding the best deal for yourspecific situation.
And let's not forget that the lowest rate isn'talways the best rate.
Some low-rate mortgages come with policyrestrictions that could end up costing more in
(02:18):
the long run.
It's important for homeowners to understand thedetails before signing anything.
Absolutely.
Reviewing your financial situation is alsovital.
Changes in income or expenses might affect whatterms are best for you.
Adjustments in amortization periods, paymentfrequency, or even switching between fixed and
(02:39):
variable rates could be necessary.
It all comes down to being informed andprepared.
Whether you're considering a Home Equity Lineof Credit or refinancing, renewal time can be
an opportunity to align your mortgage with yourlife goals.
Always consider your future plans beforelocking into new terms.
(02:59):
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation hasreleased its summer market outlook, and it's
projecting a continued cooling in the housingmarket through 2025.
This cooling trend seems to be driven by acombination of trade tensions, economic
uncertainty, and slower population growth.
(03:19):
Home prices are expected to fall by about twopercent this year, with even steeper drops
anticipated in Ontario and British Columbia.
That's right, Janine.
The Canadian average home price is projected todecrease from six hundred eighty-nine thousand
six hundred nineteen dollars in 2024 tosomewhere between six hundred seventy-six
thousand nine hundred nine and six hundredseventy-nine thousand one hundred seven dollars
(03:44):
in 2025.
It's interesting to note that many home buyersand developers are adopting a 'wait-and-see'
approach, likely due to the weaker economicgrowth and ongoing trade tensions.
It's quite a shift, Steve.
Ontario and British Columbia are facing thelargest price corrections.
The high costs and reduced investor activity inthe condominium market are really dampening
(04:08):
demand in these areas.
But it's not all bleak news.
Quebec, for instance, is experiencing a slowerdecline in housing activity, benefiting from
stronger market momentum and more stable buyersentiment.
Yes, while some regions are faring better thanothers, the overall picture is still
challenging.
The CMHC report also mentions trade tensions asa significant factor driving economic
(04:32):
headwinds.
With tariffs between Canada and the UnitedStates expected to peak in the second half of
2025, these pressures are contributing toinflation rising above three percent by
mid-2026 and a likely modest recession thisyear.
And let's not forget about the constructionactivity, Steve.
Housing starts are projected to decline fromtwo hundred forty-five thousand three hundred
(04:57):
sixty-seven units in 2024 to between twohundred twenty-four thousand nine hundred
forty-eight and two hundred thirty-seventhousand eight hundred thirty-four units in
2025.
While multi-unit construction remains high byhistorical standards, we're seeing regional
variations with strong activity in AtlanticCanada, the Prairies, and Quebec, but a sharp
(05:19):
decline in Ontario and British Columbia.
Absolutely, Janine.
Many condominium projects are being delayed,canceled, or converted to rentals due to missed
presale targets and an increase in unsoldinventory.
However, rental markets are easing as newsupply comes online and demand softens.
Vacancy rates are rising slightly in majorcenters, although rents continue to increase at
(05:43):
smaller rates compared to recent years.
It's a complex landscape, but there's hope onthe horizon.
CMHC anticipates a gradual recovery beginningin 2026 as trade tensions ease, economic
confidence improves, and mortgage ratesmoderate.
However, affordability remains a criticalissue, especially in higher-cost markets where
(06:07):
many households are still priced out of themarket.
It's essential for potential buyers to stayinformed and prepared for these changes.
As we delve into the latest market trends, theCanadian Real Estate Association has recently
adjusted its expectations for national homesales, forecasting a three percent decline
compared to last year.
(06:28):
This drop is largely attributed to highinterest rates and ongoing trade tensions with
the United States.
That's right, Steve.
While the overall market appears cooler, thisdoesn't mean brokers are sitting idle.
In fact, many are preparing for a busy secondhalf of the year.
Despite the broader market challenges, there'sstill a lot of activity happening.
(06:50):
It seems like there's a shift from sellers to amore balanced market, which could benefit
buyers.
Absolutely, Janine.
In places like Alberta, where the marketdynamics are slightly different, brokers like
Renée Huse from Spire Mortgage are observingincreased inventory and active buyers.
It's an opportunity for those who are ready tomake their move, especially with balanced
(07:12):
conditions offering more negotiation power.
And it's not just Alberta.
Across Canada, we're seeing that inventorylevels have risen.
This means more choice for buyers, particularlythose with job security looking to lock down a
home for the long term.
It's a positive sign for first-time buyers andthose who have been waiting for a more
(07:34):
favorable market.
However, we mustn't overlook the economicuncertainties influenced by trade tensions,
particularly with the United States.
While some buyers are taking advantage of thecurrent conditions, others remain cautious,
waiting on the sidelines.
It's a complex environment, but one whereinformed decisions can still lead to successful
(07:55):
outcomes.
Exactly, Steve.
And for brokers, the focus is not only onpurchase markets but also on helping clients
with renewals and financial planning.
With many homeowners facing higher rates andcost-of-living challenges, the role of brokers
in providing holistic financial advice is morecritical than ever.
It's clear that the demand for comprehensivefinancial guidance remains strong.
(08:20):
Brokers are gearing up to assist clients beyondjust the immediate purchase needs, addressing
broader financial concerns during theseuncertain times.
This proactive approach ensures continuedbusiness and client support.
That's right.
As we move through the rest of the year, thoselong, in-depth conversations with clients will
be invaluable.
(08:41):
It's about creating a supportive environmentwhere homeowners and buyers feel equipped to
navigate the economic landscape.
Thanks for tuning in to another episode of theOntario Mortgage & Real Estate Insights
Podcast.
We hope you found today's insights valuable asyou navigate the world of mortgages and real
estate.
Before you go, a quick reminder (09:01):
Real Approved is here to make your mortgage journey smoother.
Whether you're buying your first home orrefinancing, their experienced team is ready to
guide you with personalized support every stepof the way.
Visit realapproved.ca to get started and takethe next step toward achieving your
(09:22):
homeownership goals. Catch you next time, and stay informed with the latest industry
insights!
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