In this episode, I am joined by climate expert Tom Knutson to explore the nuanced science of climate change, focusing on Atlantic hurricane patterns, extreme rainfall, and the complexities of climate modelling. Tom sheds light on the challenges in attributing natural disasters to human influence, emphasizing the importance of understanding multi-decadal variability, regional factors, and the limitations of current data.
We discuss how these intricacies are often overlooked in mainstream narratives and why a pragmatic approach to climate science is essential for informed public discourse.
Research cited:
1.IPCC AR5 and AR6 Reports
•IPCC’s reports provide global assessments on climate change. AR5 and AR6 discuss confidence levels in attributing tropical cyclone activity and rainfall to human influence.
2.Multi-Decadal Variability in the Atlantic
•Studies explore Atlantic multi-decadal variability, cycles in hurricane activity, and how these may be driven by aerosol levels or changes in ocean circulation.
•NOAA on Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability
3.Hurricane Harvey Case Study (2017)
•Hurricane Harvey’s record-breaking rainfall is often cited in studies examining how atmospheric warming affects water vapor and extreme precipitation rates.
•NOAA’s Summary on Hurricane Harvey
4.Study by Jim Kossin on Slowing Propagation Speeds of Tropical Cyclones
•Jim Kossin’s research found that the movement speed of tropical cyclones slowed significantly over land, affecting rainfall accumulation.
6.Increased Water Vapor and Hurricane Rainfall Rates
•Studies show that higher atmospheric water vapor, linked to warming, increases rainfall rates in hurricanes, with simulations suggesting a 7% rise per degree Celsius.
•NASA on Climate Change and Water Vapor
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