Operation Domination | Week 5 Matchups & Winning Picks - Operation Domination Football

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Operation Domination is underway. The ultimate game plan to dominate
your inva with your host.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
You gotta be confident about your achilles. Yeah, I mean
I gotta.

Speaker 1 (00:20):
Hope be great. I'm dominating, all right.

Speaker 2 (00:28):
All right, all right, welcome back into another edition of
Operation Domination. As always, I'm your host, Dan Maiterer. It
is just me today. Jazz Flordi is away at a wedding,
so we gotta celebrate the good times. Hopefully, we guess
they'll celebrate with some green in our pocket. Make sure
you check out Operation Domination on your favorite podcast app,

(00:50):
and check out all of our video content when you
go to the Fantasy Football Advice Network YouTube channel at
FF advice Net. It is a great week of fantasy content,
and we always put that out. There's why you need
to go back and down with the show and everything else.
But now it's time to make sure that you're coming

(01:10):
away a little bit richer after week five. It's kind
of a nice compliment to fantasy football because think about
it this way, if you have a crappy week, if
you do lose, you can still win money, and ultimately,
most of the fantasy football leagues you are in probably
have a winning pot anyway, so we can do that

(01:31):
week to week here, maybe even offset if you lose,
hopefully we're helping you win both. And that's what we're
gonna look to do here today. So I got some
notes for you guys to kick the show off, just
in general, little tidbits to kind of see where we're
at as we exit the first month of the season
and enter October. So right now, so far this year,

(01:53):
the favorites have essentially been dominated, with the exception of course,
of the Thursday night game where the Rams were up
eight and a half by the time that line closed
and well the forty nine ers in the Ragtag group
somehow found a way to win that game in overtime.
It was absolutely incredible. So I didn't update on those lists,
but I could so going into Thursday night, the favorites

(02:16):
of six or plus points, so six points are more
favored by We're sixteen two and one straight up for
the season, so basically the teams are favored are essentially
just winning all right now, that would be sixteen to
three and one as we get past the Thursday night game,
because we just watched the Rams eight point favorites lose

(02:37):
that game. The over unders for the totals of the
games are completely split, which is what the books hope
for this thirty two overs thirty two unders. The books
couldn't play it any better than that. That's what they
want to see. They want to see even money on
both sides of the coin. That means they're making money
and the public betters, likely as a whole, are not.

(03:00):
So that's what we've seen so far. And the public,
just to back that point up, has been struggling. So
teams that have had sixty percent or more of the
tickets from the public, not the Sharks, but the public
are ten and twenty four against the spread. It's been rough.
It's been rough for the public so far this season.

(03:23):
So hopefully we can help get that turned around, because
the books are going down today. So first off, I
made this you know notification out there last Sunday. We
got to do it again. There is a London game, guys,
there's a game. Minnesota Vikings, who got the stand London
all week a little unfair if you asked me, are

(03:45):
going up against the Cleveland Browns who just decided that
going up against Brian Flores and a exotic Minnesota Viking
defense in a different country was the perfect time to
go ahead and bench Joe Flacco for Dylan Gabriel. Now, look,
I'm not gonna sit here and question it too hard

(04:06):
the way some people have out there. Ultimately, I don't
know if the end result could really be any worse
than it had been the first four weeks with Joe
Flacco anyway, but it does seem like a less than
ideal spot to start a rookie who's undersized that you
drafted in the third round. It does, but I honestly,
I don't think it'd be any worse. Joe Flacco was

(04:27):
literally the worst quarterback at least heading into Week four
quarterback rating wise, starting in the NFL. I stress going
into Week four because after the Monday night game, Jake
Browning took that crowd as the worst quarterback in the league.
So that's why we have going on there. In this matchup,
the Minnesota Vikings are favored at minus three and a half.

(04:50):
Not a surprise that they're favorite. Okay, we laid out
the quarterback situation the Browns defense. I talked about this
last week. I talked about it somewhat this week, Elite.
We all understand that but the offense is the exact opposite.
It's one of the worst in the entire league. Now,
the Minnesota Vikings defense has been banged up and not

(05:10):
quite right, not what we're used to seeing out of
a Brian Flores led defense. But they also have the
advantage of the fact that they got to stay in
London all week long. It's a hell of a time shift,
and now they've had the opportunity to prepare for it
for an entire week and advantages of Cleveland Browns simply

(05:31):
do not have and they need all the help they
can get. So I'm looking at the Minnesota Vikings to
cover in this one. Everyone wants to act like Carson
Wentz is gonna just melt this game away. It's not
Aaron Rodgers on the other side of that field. Okay,
they'll be just fine as long as they stick to
their game plan. Is it going to be pretty No.

(05:52):
The over under in this game total is thirty six
and a half. We're looking at a low scoring affair
on month on Sunday. This shouldn't surprise anybody, and frankly,
it's still not low enough. Give me the under. That
wouldn't surprise anybody. If this game was sixteen thirteen, seventeen ten,

(06:13):
somewhere in that realm. I'm not expecting to see a
whole lot of points here, And in fact, I'd go
as far as to say I don't expect either offense
to hit the twenty mark. And if that doesn't happen,
the thirty six and a half under is there and
right for the taking. So let's let's move on here.
Let's talk about the Texans and the Ravens. Unfortunately, we

(06:37):
had doctor Brian Scott on the show yesterday. The Ravens
are not gonna have Lamar Jackson. That's the unfortunate part
about this. It is in Baltimore. Both teams heading into
this game are one and three against the spread. It's
been awful and I can't believe it's the conversation we
have to have about the Ravens. But here we are
a week five. That's why is the NFL so now

(06:59):
Cooper Rush comes in. We know what Cooper Rush is
at this point. Has there been moments with Dallas where
he was able to put up enough performances to win
a couple of games here and there every so often, Yeah,
there was. And Zay Flowers is a weapon. Mark Andrews
can be a weapon if they actually want to use them.

(07:21):
The big key is gonna be Derrick Henry. Now I
know he used to be known as the Houston Texan
Killer when he was the Tennessee Titans. It was a
very different Houston Texan defense. It's kind of similar to
the Cleveland Browns. Not quite as bad offensively, but pretty close,
but with an elite defense in their own right. I

(07:42):
don't expect Cooper Rush to have a very good game
in this one. So this is another game in which
I'm looking at the total over under here and I'm
thinking under myself right now, the total for that game
is forty and a half. It's another game. I would
not be surprised if either team gets to the twenty benchmark.

(08:05):
And if I was gonna bet on one team to
do it, it'd be the Houston Texans. Even with Lamar Jackson,
the Baltimore Ravens have not looked like themselves, mostly defensively.
That defense has been a leaking seed. It's been brutal.
They can't stop the run, they can't stop the pass,
they can't pressure anybody. Good news for CJ. Shroud because

(08:27):
he's been getting hammered all year long, and that's why
he come into this game. That Texans are actually favored
at minus one and a half in Baltimore. That's where
we are. I would take the Texans in this game.
I think right now they are the better team. It's
really the best of two ugly worlds is what we
have on our hands in this one. But more importantly,

(08:49):
I have a player prop for you, which is what
I love to do here. Now. Remember my article comes
out on Saturdays on the Huddle where I do fifteen
player props, my fifteen favorite player of props of the week.
Spell them out for you on paper. Let you get
a good read. Maybe in the bathroom. That's where I
do all of mine. I don't I wouldn't judge you
if you did yours too. I don't mean I don't

(09:10):
mind being associated with your bathroom time. Perfectly fine with
me as long as you read the article on the Huddle,
don't care. But one of the guys I'm going to
talk about in more depth, but I am going to
mention on this show is CJ. Straud. His over under
is two hundred and fourteen and a half passing yards.

(09:33):
Give me that all day, every day against a Ravens team.
Like I said, that simply cannot stop the pass period. Now,
first of all, over his last three games, he's been
averaging two hundred and fourteen point seven passing yards during
that time, So like just a little bit over what
his player prop line is to begin with, around thirty

(09:55):
attempts maybe seventy point one six yards per ten roughly
hasn't been pretty, but they looked a lot better against Tennessee.
Now Tennessee will make a lot of teams look right,
But honestly, I don't know if the Ravens defense is
much different from what we've seen. They've allowed two hundred
and seventy one passing yards per game so far this season,

(10:16):
and with Cooper Rush playing that limits the ability they're
going to have to sustain drives, which means more opportunities
for the Houston Texan offense if things continue to go
as they have. So yeah, give me CJ. Stroud. And
the one thing about Week five is that we're kicking
off the bye weeks, right, which means when I give

(10:37):
you fifteen different player props, some of them are gonna
be from the same game. I try to keep it
unique just so you can sprinkle a little action in
each game if you so chose. Doesn't mean I don't
love the parlay. And when we get in to these
bye weeks, the parlays become well much more prevalent. And
you want to do same game parlays by looking for

(10:59):
stats that are going to correlate to one another. So
if I'm taking the over on a quarterback's passing yards,
then there should be a receiver who's a beneficiary of
that comes with no surprise, Nico Collins, who's the only
legitimate wide receiver that Houston Texans have. Side note real quick,

(11:19):
I don't understand why the Texans spent significant draft capital
on two wide receivers from the same college, by the way,
in Jalen Knowle and in Jayden Higgins, and yet Xavier
Hutchison is the player who's playing right now now. Maybe
that's to say that the rookies to simply have not

(11:40):
shown enough to be ready. I'm not in the locker room.
Could be the case. It just seems very weird. Xavier Hutchinson,
who's done next to nothing in this league for a
couple of seasons now, can't lose his job to your
second round wide receiver players bust all time. It's true,

(12:01):
but there's also something to be said for development. Why
is no one developing? I think Nick Keyley, the offensive
cordinator of the Houston Texans, is going to be a
one and done because it's been dreadful. The offensive line
is terrible. I get it, but clearly firing Bobby Slowick

(12:22):
in favor of Nick Cayley is not solving the issue.
You have all the same problem set a year ago,
and you're less prolific. What are we doing here anyway?
Get back to it. So Nico Collins is going to
be the beneficiary of c. J. Stroud going over his
passing yards. So I have Nico Collins over seventy four

(12:44):
and a half receiving yards in this game. I got
him projected for at one hundred event which gives you
a twenty five point seven edge and an eighty percent
cover probability based on my model's projection. I already gave
you the stats for the Ravens. Let me give you
the ones for the wide receivers. So while they're allowing

(13:05):
two hundred and seventy one passing yards per game in general,
one hundred and fifty four of those receiving yards per
game are being given to the wide receivers. Not only
are they just not looking like the Ravens defense, they're
completely banged up. Both their tier defensive lineman just went on.
Ir Roquan Smith's not going to play in this game.

(13:27):
Marlon Humphrey's banged up. The list goes on and on.
The Texans used last week against the Titans to get
a get right game. They have an opportunity with a
flashier brand name in front of them to use as
another get right opportunity. I'm expecting some fireworks at a CJ.

(13:47):
Stroud and Nico Collins in this game, or at least
enough to hit over on those player props. So now
we move on. Let's talk about the Raiders and the Colts.
Raiders on the road heading into Indianapolis. The Colts, to
no surprise or favored pretty well in this game. They're

(14:08):
sitting at about a six and a half or now
it's a seven point favorite. Excuse me, because the public
they're betting heavy on the Colts rightfully, so to some degree,
I want to push back on it a little bit
little bit. When I look at this Raiders team on paper,
it's not a team that I find to be very talented,

(14:29):
but especially on the defensive side of the football, and
yet Pete Carroll has made this a really feisty unit
in year one. Like that defense has not been pushovers
at all. The one thing you can still attack them
on is through the air. Their secondary is still horrible,

(14:50):
but with Max Crosby and what Pete Carroll's doing, the
front seven has actually been playing above expectations so far
this season. I don't think this is going to be
an easy for Jonathan Taylor. That's what I'm here to say.
And if it's not gonna be an easy day for
Jonathan Taylor, then you can make this game with the
Colts a little more interesting that I think people would expect.

(15:12):
I was okay with the six and a half line,
but at seven it feels like a push to me. Now.
You always have the factor of Gino Smith might just
continue to implode like he has the last couple of weeks.
It's always a factor. But the Colts defense on the
flip side, their secondary hasn't been creating. They just had
Xavier and Howard retire on them after he got whipped

(15:36):
up and down the field by Poka Nakua. I mean,
what is showing that was a week ago. But they
have their own issues, which I think lightens to load
a little bit. For Geno Smith not gonna have as
many tight windows as he has the past couple of weeks.
And now we're looking forward to Sunday. But on the
Colts side, here's what I am going to target. I

(15:59):
have another pop for you. Daniel Jones over two hundred
and thirty and a half passing yards. Yeah, I'm surprised
it's is low. I know he's coming off of performance.
We didn't necessarily light it up against the Rams. I
get that, but for the most part he's been really good.
And like I said, this is still a secondary and

(16:19):
the Raiders that you could take advantage of. They've been
allowing two hundred and thirty seven passing yards to the
quarterbacks so far, and Jones himself over the last three
has been averaging two hundred and sixty eight passing yards
on really less than thirty one attempts, a really efficient
eight point seven six yards per attempt. So even if

(16:41):
Jonathan Taylor is having a rough day, they're still going
to run the ball enough to where play action will
be available as long as play action is available. Daniel
Jones has the opportunity to throw in rhythm efficiently without
being overexposed. And the best news of all for the
Colts is Michael Pittman. While there was a bit of

(17:02):
an injury scare on Thursday, practice in full on Friday
and it's gonna be good to go. So you have
him in Fantasy, fire him up. But it also means
Daniel Jones gets more and more confident to hit the
over on his tour and thirty and a half passing
yards heading into this matchup. Then we travel to New
York the Jets and the Cowboys. This game is either

(17:27):
gonna be the ugliest game on the slate or it's
gonna surprise us. I'm not really sure which. I'm still
kind of waiting to find out, but you know it's
gonna go that way. You have two very undisciplined defenses
that are putting up a lot of penalties right now,
and offensive weapons that are able to take advantage of

(17:50):
certain opportunities when they present themselves. I'm looking forward to
this one. So the Cowboys are one and two against
the spread and the Jets are two and two, believe
it or not. Heading into this matchup, Cowboys, even on
the road, are favored at minus two and a half
heading into this game. But the Dallas Cowboys have one of,

(18:14):
if not the worst defense in the NFL. And they
have allowed a ton of rushing yards to the quarterback,
which plays right in the justin fields hands, which is
the key to get that Jets offense actually scoring something
they don't do a lot of, I grant you, but
to me, this is screaming one of my straight up

(18:41):
underdog picks of the week. The Jets are due for
a win. They're zero to four here. Dallas is a
mediocre team at best, That's what they are. And the Jets,
of course are underachieving on the defensive side of the ball.
And I kind of went on a rant on this
earlier in the week. Aaron Glenn's not a good schematic

(19:02):
defensive coach. Wasn't with Detroit? Name me when Detroit's defense
was good. You can't do it, can't do it. He's
made Sauce Garter a penalty maker who can't cover anybody
because he's leaving them on an island twenty four to seven,
playing man coverage with no pressure. That works if you're

(19:23):
getting pressure to the quarterback, but the Jets aren't. If
you can't get pressure to the quarterback, I don't care
how good of a cornerback you are. Guess what, you
can't stick with the wide receiver forever, especially when you're
playing a man in the man all the time. So
there's some things they had to clean up there. But
lucky for them, even though I know the Dallas Cowboys

(19:45):
lit up a forty burger on what was going into
the week the number one defense in the NFL. I
get it. There's some capability there. It's a little bit different,
I think when it's in New York versus when it's
at home in Dallas for this team. So what I'm
looking at this game is I think the Jets win

(20:06):
it outright. Justin Fields should be able to run, Batis
Hall should be able to run. Garrett Wilson should be
able to get open whenever he wants to. This is
the matchup the Jets need to finally get a victory.
And I'm not just putting those guys out there as
keys to win. I'm putting them out there as keys
for us to win. Some player props, So let's get

(20:30):
into it in this one. So I'll start on the
Dallas side. I got multiple ones in this, so hold
on your hats. If you want to do some same
game parlays, some round robbins, I recommend that you do
so because it's right for the taking. So on the
Dallas side we have Javonte Williams. I want his rushing
and receiving yards. Give me his scrimmage yards. His over

(20:50):
under is at ninety one and a half right now.
My projection for him is one hundred and seven, which
is actually right in line with what he's been averaging
so far this season from the scrimmage anyway. So the
Jets I talked about how their defense isn't playing up
to stuff. They're allowing one hundred yards per game on

(21:13):
the ground, and they're allowing about sixteen and a half
receiving yards to the running backs per game. That matches
up perfectly with what Javonte Williams has been given you anyway,
ninety percent of it coming on the ground, about ten
percent of it coming through the air. He's a bell
cow back behind a good offensive line. Buckle your seatbelts,

(21:37):
here we go. Davon A. Chan grant you not the
same type of running back did whatever he wanted to
do against the New York Jets. Now, Javonte's going to
be needing a little more power than that, not as
much speed. But did you watch that Monday night game?
The Jets defense didn't look like they were interested in tackling.
If you're not interested in tackling at running back, it

(21:57):
was one hundred and seventy pounds soaking wet. What are
you gonna want to do when Javonte Williams gets going downhill?
So I love this prop. Here give me over the
ninety one and a half all purpose yards rushing and
receiving combined. Talk about the Jets side of the ball.
Talk about how the Cowboys can't stop the quarterbacks from rushing.
We saw Jalen Hurts run all over them that Week

(22:20):
one performance and it really hasn't stopped since. Now on average,
are allowing at least thirty and a half rushing yards
to the quarterback. Add in the fact that you have
a true dual threat quarterback coming to town or you're
going to their town, and Justin Fields, who's averaging fifty

(22:40):
nine point three rushing yards per game in the games
that he's been healthy in and that equals to getting
an over on a fifty one and a half rushing
yard prop line. Love it. I think the Jets are
gonna be able to do whatever they want to. All
their RPO action should be available to them. On the
throwing side of things, I think there's something we can

(23:02):
take advantage of. So we love justin fields and his legs,
and we always question whether or not he can get
it done through the air because it is a hit
or miss scenario. There's been one guy he's been able
to hit consistently throughout the entire year, and that's Garrett Wilson.
So Garrett Wilson, his line in this game is only
sixty three and a half yards. That has more to

(23:24):
do with his quarterback than it does the matchup in
his ability, trust me, but I still like it here.
I got him projected for seventy four point three heading
into this ballgame. He's been averaging seventy two yards over
the last three games and nine targets. We know the
volume is going to be there, and nobody in that
Dallas Cowboys secondary has the ability to cover him at all.

(23:47):
The Cowboys are allowing two hundred and six point eight
receiving yards per game to wide receivers, worse than the NFL.
So give me Garrett Wilson over his sixty three and
a half receiving yards prop, Justin Fields over his fifty
one and a half rushing yards prop, and over Javonte

(24:11):
Williams is ninety one and a half scrimmage yards. Love it,
love it. I can feel the green already. Now we
fast forward to the Broncos and the Eagles. Bronco's coming
into this game really uneven twenty twenty five. So far
for them, bo Nix has been struggling. They had a

(24:31):
nice little get right game against the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday,
but it's hard to know what that means because right
now the Bengals would look make anybody look good, so
it's hard to take anything too much away from that.
The Eagles, on the other hand, while they're four and
o on their record, they're three and one against the spread.
There's some things about them that don't look great either.

(24:52):
A lot of hoopla about AJ Brown not being happy
because he hasn't been going to utilize outside of the
Rams game where they had to come back from behind.
I've talked about this numerous times so far. Their passing
game looks broken. They didn't complete a single pass in
the second half against Tampa Bay. I don't even know
how you do that in the NFL in today's day
and age. They're just more talented than the teams that

(25:15):
they're playing. That's why they're winning. But they're being out
coached by everybody that they're playing. Again, they're just more talented.
The offense in particular, has been getting out coached by
every defense's faced so far because it's not like they're
putting up points from their rushing game. Take one Barkley's

(25:39):
average in three yards of carry. Their special teams has
been the key to making plays the last couple of weeks.
Their defense gives them plenty of opportunities, where as long
as they hit on one drive out of five, they're
winning these ballgames. Eventually, that catches up with you. Now.
I don't know the Denver brop the team to definitively

(26:01):
do it, but they have the defense to do so.
And if bow Knicks can just get back to playing
a bow Knicks clean type of ballgame, well then I
think the Broncos had a real chance here. Now, this
game is in Philadelphia, and we get leary of any
team going from west to east coast. It's not quite
the west coast out in Denver, but it's west. We

(26:24):
kind of just saw it with the Chargers, who wound
up losing to the Giants. That's real when you go
from west to east. Not so much east to west,
but when you go west to east, that is a
real thing. So while I want to take the Broncos
to win this game straight up as an underdog pick,
I can't really quite do it. Maybe if bo Knicks
was playing better, Maybe if the Broncos had Drake Greenlaw

(26:46):
to help stop the run, because they have been a
team you can run on your themselves. But it's not
quite enough for me. It's not quite enough for me
to take the points either, So I would take the
Eagles cover and three and a half in this ballgame.
I do, however, have some props that I'm ready to
fire away. So JK. Dobbins coming into this game. His

(27:10):
receiving yards prop is six and a half. That's it.
There's a good reason why his receiving yards prop is
only six and a half, and you have him in
fantasy You already know where I'm going with this. You
already know because he's only been averaging four point three
receiving yards and less than two targets per game so far. JK.

(27:34):
Dobbins is not involved in the passing game what iota,
not even a little bit. That's R J. Harvey's role
I'm gonna talk about in a second. So the Broncos
coming in here slight underdogs. If the game goes as
expected as the team lines would imply, well then there's

(27:59):
gonna become an opera tunity. Sometime in the second half
of the Broncos may have to come back from behind,
which means they're going to have their passing group out there,
which means it's going to be RJ. Harvey not JK. Dobbins.
And being that the guy is getting less than two
targets a game, I'm gonna take the under the six

(28:21):
and a half receiving yards heading into this one. And
just to add a little icing on the cake, the
Eagles are allowing forty one and a half running back
receiving yards per game, which is a decent and munch
bymount But that's where RJ. Harvey comes in because he's
been the guy running the majority of the routes and
getting a more significant workload as the weeks have gone on. Remember,

(28:45):
Tyler Batty first two weeks of the season was actually involved,
and that's why RJ. Harvey had to be put in
stashed away on benches and kind of forgotten about fantasy
for like a split second because it looked like it
was JK. Dobbins and then two running backs behind him
to spell him almost sharing even time. That's not the

(29:05):
case anymore. In weeks three and weeks four, it's gone
back to okay. RJ. Harvey is the guy behind JK. Dobbins,
and he's a little bit more than just a backup
in the way they utilize him. So over his last
three games, he's averaged twenty three point three receiving yards
and just over three targets per game, a pretty efficient

(29:28):
seven yards per target, I might add, pretty good for
a running back. I got him projected for twenty yards,
so I haven't projected under his average heading into this lineup,
but his prop line is only twelve and a half.
So this team has to come back from behind at
any point in time, or maybe just in two minute drills.
Twelve and a half receiving yards for RJ. Harvey, who's

(29:49):
involved in that aspect of the game. That could be
a catcher two for a guy who's averaging seven yards
per target. So give me over twelve and a half
receiving yards for RJ. Harvey in this week. I'm not
done with this game just yet. Saquon Barkley. I talked
about how he's been three yards per carry so far

(30:13):
this season. He's averaged fifty nine rushing yards the last
three games. It's not for lack of volume. He averages
nineteen point six carries. Right now, Saquon Barkley and Christian
McCaffrey are having the same issues. They're getting tons of
volume and going nowhere. Offensive lines are banged up, and

(30:38):
neither one of them looks like they quite have the
juice as a runner as they did a season or
two ago too, in Christian mccaffrim's case. Last year historic
for Saquon Barkley. Of course, his rushing yards prop against
and the minutally not hard rushing defense. I'll get into
that in the second seventy nine and a half rushing yards.

(31:02):
I have him projected at sixty three and a half
heading into this ball game. I never thought I would
say taken under on Saquon Barkley rushing, Not with the
Philadelphia Eagles, not after the year he had. And I
never want to doubt a great player like that. These

(31:22):
are the types of players I look for overs or
I just don't bet in general. But Barkley's not sniffing this.
He's not siffing this level of production. He's gonna have
to get to at least four yards per carry in
order for him to hit the over on this line,
and not once has he done that so far this season.
And I don't think it's gonna wind up happening here

(31:44):
against Denver. Now. Denver has allowed ninety two point twenty
five rushing yards to the running backs per game so
far this season, but with Barkley unable to be efficient
despite the volume, it lines up real easily to be
an under in this game. Let's move on to another one.

(32:06):
The game is probably not gonna be on as many
people as radars. We've got the Dolphins and the Carolina Panthers.
The Dolphins so far this season, they've been two and
two against the spread, while the Panthers are two and one.
Dolphins on the road without Tyreek Hill. I want to
make sure we add that in no, Tyreek Hill are

(32:27):
still favored against the Panthers at minus one and a half.
When's the Bryce Young experiment going to end? If you've
been watching or listening to this show at all over
the last couple of seasons, you know I've been warning
you guys, especially this offseason, that Brayce Young ain't the guy.

(32:48):
And it was especially proved in this past offseason because
everybody wanted to take the small sample size of a
few games at the end of last year as the
moment of the breaking out party for Bryce Shaw as
the moment he turned it all around from this literally
sample size, and we have a much larger sample size

(33:10):
in his career to this point of him not being
an NFL caliber quarterback period. Wouldn't even want him as
a backup. That's how bad this guy is. That's how
bad he's playing right now. Again, when's it gonna end?
I'm not saying Andy Dalton's great. I'm not even saying
they should go to Andy Dalton. At this point, the

(33:32):
Carolina Panthers should be getting ready to who's gonna be
their quarterback next year? That's what they should be doing.
And while it's hard for me to bet on the
Dolphins because they are one of the teams that just
look dysfunctional so far this season and are down a
superstar player at that, the Panthers offer you nothing to

(33:57):
scare you. The Dolphins have one of the worst defense.
In the end, I'm not sure they're gonna be able
to take advantage of it. Between brace young Chuba Hubbard
being ruled out in this game. So we're down the
Rico O'Donnell. Well, I know he's put up numbers in
the past, but it's not somebody you're riding on to
give you a spark in the offense. Give me the
Dolphins to cover. Yeah, it's weird to say, I don't

(34:20):
feel great about it, but that's what we're looking at here.
So here's a little stat line for you. The Panthers
are better when they're underdogs at home. They are. Now
here's the caveat to that. They're underdogs all the time,
so eventually, you know, even though a dog has fifteen
minutes a son signed on his ass at some point, right, Like,

(34:43):
it's not great, But the Panthers are better when they're
home and they're underdogs, so take that for what you will.
Here's what I'm mostly focusing on for this game. It's
the Jaalen Wattle player prop sixty four and a half
receiving yards. That's the over under. We all know what

(35:06):
Tyreek Hill's gone. We're begging for Jalen Waddle to get
the opportunity to show what we know that he has
the talent to do and have the opportunity to put
it on display. Here's the thing about Jalen Waddle. I
still think back to the Alabama days with this guy
was hands down the most explosive player on the field,

(35:27):
no matter what teams were playing. Period. He comes into
the NFL with the Dolphins and in his rookie season
while he broke all these rookie records and got tons
of targets and everything else, and it was all great.
He was a glorified Wes Welker. He had a thousand

(35:49):
yards on like one hundred and fifty targets. He wasn't efficient,
he wasn't getting the ball down the field. So the
one great year we have of Jalen wall in the
NFL doesn't even match the profile that this guy should have.
And he hasn't consistently gotten the opportunity since Tyreek Hill
and Mike McDaniel joined the Dolphins. He has the ability

(36:13):
to do more. He has the ability to do basically
everything Tyreek Hill did for this team. I don't see
why not. We're still waiting for it. This is the
opportunity to see it. And look. J C. Horne of
the Panthers, he's no pushover. Like, I'm not picking on
the matchup here, It's not really what I'm doing. People

(36:36):
think Caroline Panther are like, oh, it's easy defense, yeah, sure,
opportunity yeah sure, No. J C. Horn's been shutting down
to number one wide receivers. This is all about time
to shine. Mike McDaniel. You need to scheme this guy
up because he's your only playmaker down the field. That's
what this is about. This is putting my faith in
that he will know to get him the football. So

(37:00):
again the lines at sixty four and a half, Wattle's
been averaging fifty one point seven receiving yards and obviously
that's with Tyreek Hill in the matchup. About four point
three receptions eight point sixty one yards for target, which
is okay, not great, but it's it's it's okay. The

(37:21):
Dolphins again favored to win this game, but just slightly,
just slightly, so this should be a neutral game script
for the majority of the game. Unless the Dolphins just
want to blowing them out by the second half, I
don't really see that happening. So with the neutral game scripts,
should keep them passing through the second half. And I

(37:43):
mentioned you know, Panthers have gett up the least amount
of yards to the wide receiver, but I think between
bubble screens, play action, deep throws, the fact that Mike
McDaniel is going to have to scheme for Wattle and
feature Waddle, I think he gets the overr on sixty

(38:03):
four and a half receiving yards heading into this week
and is a must play for fantasy football. I my dad, Oh,
we gotta tickle fast down in New Orleans this week.
Two really bad teams taking each other on. So we
got the Giants and the Saints. The Giants are five
hundred in the spread, like they're two and two. Saints

(38:27):
are one and three. That's just surprised that it should
be more surprised if the Saints even covered once it
was against San Francisco because they were eight point favorites
in that game, or six and a half and one
by five, whatever the case may have been. So this
line actually changed a little bit throughout the week because
it started out that the Giants were favored by a point.

(38:52):
And this was after the elite neighbors like we already
knew yeat the acl this, this is nothing new. The
public betted up so much that now it's at one
and a half. Saints are now favorite at home. It's
a pickham game, Like, don't treat it as anything else.
It's a straight up pick them game. If you think
you got a feel for this game, let me in
on your little secret, all right, And I don't want

(39:13):
to hear Giant fans or Saints fans that if you
think you got a real insight of who's gonna win
this game, I myself lean if I had to pick with,
lean towards the Giants, just for the simple fact that
they have the pass rush. Like when I look at
these two teams, all right, what on either of these
two teams is actually legitimately good? Does anybody have anything?

(39:35):
And the only unit on either team that I can
point to is the pass rush on the Giants, the
pass rush on the Giants is legitimate, and Spencer Rattler
is not good. Surprise surprise, right, So because of the
only team that has an only legit unit, in my mind,
that's what makes me lean towards the Giants for no

(39:58):
nothing else though, and that could mean nothing. I'm not
gonna bet one team or another to win this game
if he wanted to take the Giants outright, they're plus
one hundred. They're even money, not not terrible odds. It's
pretty close. And I would actually be more bullish on
this if Jackson Dark, even even though I know he's playing,

(40:19):
If Jackson Dart hadn't gotten a we'll call it a
minor hamstring injury in the last game. Jackson Dark has
to be able to be mobile in order to have
any hope of being positive and keeping up with the chains.
He needs that mobility for capability and to be able

(40:42):
to pick up a few yards when he needs to,
especially now that you're not gonna have elite neighbors like
one dal Robinson's gonna be the number one wide receiver
on the team. No one's getting no one's getting scared
by that nobody. So I lean the Giants in that way.

(41:02):
I do have a prop and this is what I'm
more excited to bet on in this one. Cam Scatibo
rushing yards sixty seven and a half. Heading into this matchup,
I have him projected for eighty four point three. He
had seventy nine rushing yards last week. Now, it wasn't efficient,
it was on twenty five carries, I'll grant you, but

(41:24):
the fact that the first game without Tyrone Tracy, the
Giants were willing to give Cam Scattabo that much work
despite it not being efficient, and not only that, it
helped them win the game. They beat the Chargers as
major underdogs. They beat them out right. I think the

(41:48):
formula sticks. No, why would you change it? The same
sort of the same quality team as the Chargers. This
is what's going to work for you. Now you have
a rookie quarterback in there. You want to establish a
run game, so you can run, play action and make
things easier. I think, while I don't think camp Scott
was going to be super efficient in this game either,
is a much easier matchup than he had a week

(42:09):
ago with the Saints rush defense, that's for sure. However,
I think volume is just going to carry him past
the sixty seven and a half yards mark, and it
should be at the least a neutral game script for
most of this game, if not a positive one by
the time we get into the second half of the Giants.

(42:30):
So yeah, I'm loving Cam Scott about over sixty seven
and a half rushing yards, having my top twenty for
fantasy football purposes, by the way, because I do think
he gets a little bit more involved in the passing
game than he died a week ago. All right, let's
move on here. Let's talk about the Bengals, talk about
the Detroit Lions. Woof, I'm surprised, and I actually kind

(42:52):
of want to double check this line real quick, because
I'm surprised that this game opened at only ten and
a half points and it is still back ten and
a half between the Lions and the Bengals. I know
it's in Cincinnati. After we watched Monday night, Do we
have any faith the Bengals can move the ball? We
know their defense isn't gonna be able to stop anybody,

(43:13):
because outside of Trey Henderson, none of them's worth of
Dawn and the Lions, I mean talking about the worst
matchup the Bengals can have like the number one rushing
attack in the NFL, just to break their spirits whenever
they want. Like the only way the Bengals cover is
if Detroit goes into this game and decides like just

(43:37):
to play with their food. We've seen that before. We
saw the Bills do it. We could go with the Saints.
Sometimes good teams will do that. The Lions aren't typically
one of those teams. Do you watch that Bears game
a couple of weeks ago. I know it's a divisional rival,
there's a little extra fuel in the fire, but the
Lions are all about getting things right and taking advantage

(43:59):
of the opportunities when they can just go molly wop
a team real fast and see if they can work
out some kinks that maybe have him been firing on
all cylinders looking at you, jerk Off and Jameson Williams.
This is the perfect game for those two to work
out that deep ball issue that hasn't really quite hit
yet outside of one week. They tried to do it

(44:20):
like three or four times a week ago and just
couldn't quite get it. And Dan Campbell's words, they're just
a little bit off, but they'll get a figure it out.
What if they had this game circle to figure that
part out, wouldn't surprise me. There's no way the Bengals
covered this game. Like I said, less are playing with
their food. Here's the prop I have for you. All right,

(44:44):
Fantasy owners are gonna be upset. I get it. I
had to move this guy down to my RB three.
But Chase Brown, his rushing line is fifty one and
a half. I can't believe it's at high. So I
haven't projected at forty one point three. So I have
a negative ten point three edge, so a cover probability

(45:07):
of almost seventy percent based off of that projection. He's
averaging thirty rushing yard to game the last three games
without Joe Burrow. Thirty. That's it, thirty. It's been brutal,
only twelve carries per game. Talk about inefficiency that comes

(45:28):
up in case you're not doing the math, that comes
out to two and a half yards per carry. Woof,
they're using him. I've actually talked about this earlier in
the week because you know, we're talking about some you know,
buy sells, and we're getting into the time of year
where people are looking to kind of make trades. See
if you could take advantage of certain things or not.
And one of the questions came up is Chase brown

(45:50):
a by low according to his usage. He is because
his expected fantasy points is about six points and halfway
PPU leagues six points higher than what he's actually averaging.
So from that general formula, which is usually what I
go off of when I'm looking for some BILO players,

(46:13):
it's there. But then when you think about why that is,
why he's been so efficient, why he's been underperforming the
way that he has, even though he's been getting the volume.
No team's afraid of Jake Browning throwing the football over
their head. You could load guys up in the box

(46:35):
even though you have Jamark, Chase and T Higgins. That's
how bad Browning and his Bengals offense is playing right now.
I don't see it getting better against Detroit. Got news
for you. They're gonna tear up, chew up, spit out
that offensive line. It's no match for that defensive line
of Detroit Liones. None. God help him. If McNeil, who

(46:58):
opened his twenty one day practice window, actually comes back
in plays, it don't Bill do anything. The Bengals are
only implied for nineteen point seventy five points in this game,
not even twenty points, and I'd be shocked if they
got that high, frankly, So yeah under on Chase Brown.

(47:19):
The Lions have only allowed seventy two point eight rushing
yards that are running back so far this season anyway,
So top thirteen last I checked right there. Yeah under
on Chase Brown if you have him in fantasy. It's
a heavy bye week, so you might not have a
better option, but I'd consider trying to bench the guy.

(47:41):
So let's talk about the Commanders and the Chargers. Jaye
Dalies is back. That's the good news. Terry mclaurin's out,
that's the bad news. To be determined on Deebo Samuel,
who didn't get much done in practice dealing with the
heel issue. That's the worst news. Diebo's actually pretty good
for the team so far this season. So what's Jaydon

(48:02):
Daniels left with Zach Ertz who's not even playing a
normal amount of snaps this year, and what Jalen Lane,
Luke McCaffrey. This is gonna be ugly now. On the
Chargers side, they got some things they got to work
out too. I mean that offensive line's banged up. There's

(48:24):
no Joel we know o Vershawan Slater's done for the year.
Makai Becton's very questionable, trying to come back from concussion issue.
We'll have to see what happens there. So these are
two kind of banged up teams in some very key positions.
But after the Chargers lost to the Giants and the
Commander's not all having all their firepower, and this being

(48:44):
back in LA where the Chargers do not have to
travel from west East coast, I'm going to take the
better coach and the better quarterback, and that is Jim
Harball and Justin Herbert. Give me the Chargers cover here, baby,
I feel pretty good about I also filled with pretty good.
But my player prop for you, So I got a

(49:06):
Marian Hampton breakout party last week. Fantastic. Here's something about
mare En hampted that maybe is still being underrated, and
that's the receiving part of his game. First of all,
he's a bell cow. We pray for guys to get
like ninety percent of the usage. That's a mari Enhampton
right now, with no Nag Harris for an entire game.

(49:27):
We saw in Week one when Harris didn't get a
chance to practice and didn't get to play that much.
We saw it last week with the first full game
without total bell Coal, and that means he's getting the
receiving yards as well. His receiving yards prop is twenty
five and a half over under it going into this week.
I haven't projected at thirty point four. Again. I talked

(49:48):
about how this is gonna be maybe an ugly type
of game. I don't think either team blows them out,
and that's you know, laid out for you with the
two and a half point spread, like Vegas bookmakers think
this game is gonna be pretty close all the way
to the end. Two And with it the offensive line
being banged up as it is, the Chargers might find
out that they're just going to have more success through

(50:09):
the air. And they've been throwing the ball a lot
so far this season, and justin Herbert is it's all
as Kellen Moore is not calling the place, is not
afraid to check the ball down. We've witnessed that Amarin
Hampton is averaging thirty two point three receiving yards so
far this season, and the Commanders are allowing a forty
receiving yards that are running backs per game. With Hampton's

(50:33):
target share and workloadt all in general, figure ninety percent
of that goes to the running back goes to Omaran Hampton.
We're over the prop already as we speak, just based
off of those numbers. So I love that. Let's hum
up to Seattle and Tampa Bay. Seahawks going into Tampa
in this one. Seahawks three and one against the spread

(50:54):
so far, Tampa Bay's two and two and even on
the road to see I'm sorry is in Seattle. That's
my mistake and totally twisted my head. Seattle at home,
as you expect, are favored at three and a half
points with the total of the forty four and a
half between these two teams. Feels right, does feel right?

(51:17):
Like I know Tampa Bay is missing Mike Gavins, and
I know we know now that they're gonna be missing
Bucky Irving, but at this point, I'm kind of done
doubting Baker Mayfield's ability to make these games at least close,
if not win them on a final drive. And while
Seattle's defense numbers wise, has been pretty good, they've been

(51:38):
banged up in the secondary and you can throw at
whatever corner you want through as long as he's not
named Witherspoon in that secondary, especially if his name's Woolen,
you can really throw at that guy. But as long
as his name's not Witherspoon, you're gonna find success throwing
the football against this the Seattle Seahawks. So I actually

(52:01):
like Tampa Bay and the points in this matchup because
I can easily see this coming down to a field goal.
That hook might just be enough for me to take
Tampa Bay in this game. We move on to the
Tennessee Titans and the air it's I don't have a
proper for you. So we move on to the Titans
in the Arizona Cardinals. Man, the Titans bad. Just look

(52:25):
a couple of things here. Brian Callahan's gotta go. And
I know Titan fans feel the same way. On one hand,
if you got fired this year, would it be a
raw deal? Absolutely it would. You brought him in in
a lost season last year where you knew you weren't
gonna get your quarterback in the future yet, so you're like, hey,

(52:46):
see what you can do with Will Levis, and we're
gonna put you on a five year plan and we're
gonna build this thing up from the bottom to the top. Okay,
sounds good theory, except for the they were more competitive
a season ago, gained the game like obviously, they still
didn't win a lot of games. They had the number

(53:07):
one pick the past year, but I didn't feel like
they're this pathetic. They didn't even look like an NFL
team out there. And I don't put this on cam
Ward the rookie quarterback. There's nowhere for him to go
with the football. Calvin Riley's been banged up. They can't
really run efficiently with that offensive line, and Tony Pollard

(53:29):
and what used to be a staple of the Tennessee Titans.
What kept him in games was the defense, in particular
the run defense. Well, since Devandre Sweat has been banged up,
not only can you run the Titans, but you can throw,
You can do whatever you want. It's brutal. And while

(53:50):
the Cardinals in their owner I have not been impressive
at all, not even close. I don't see how you
don't just show up and win this game. The nine
point spread is what's interesting because I could have made
all these same points back in I think it was
week two, or maybe maybe Week three, whenever, whatever week

(54:12):
the Cardinals played the Saints, I could have made a
lot of the same points. Now. The Saints are definitely
in a position where they are. They have shown they're
more feisty than the Tennessee Titans so far this season.
It's really not close between the two. But talk about
playing down to your competition, that's all Arizona does now. Ultimately,
in this one, I think there's just too much of

(54:34):
a talent gap. But with them missing Tray Benson of
course James Connor out for the year, they're Are you
really gonna be able to take advantage of this right now?
Pors run defense at the Tennessee Titans with Michael Carter
and Amari Democado, Is that really gonna be a thing?
I think that might be difficult to do. And Kyler

(54:54):
Murray is just flat out not playing good football right
now period. There's no way around it. He's not. So
I'm staying away from this game as far as the
lines are concerned, even though the Titans are one to
nine against the spread in the last ten, even though
they're zero and six against the spread against the NFC.
Because the Cardinals played down to their competition two often

(55:18):
too often for me to feel good about taking them
in a nine point spread against anybody. So let's go
to the Bills and the Patriots Sunday night matchup. I'll
feel much better about us getting some value in this
game because these are two teams that are a little
easier to predict because you know exactly what it is

(55:39):
that they can actually do. So both teams right now
are two and two against the spread. Bills blew it.
They played down to their competition, they played with their food.
They did. Now they're at home in Buffalo. I guess
the division rival and the Patriots and their favorite at
eight and a half points with an over under a
forty nine and a half. Heading into this ball game,

(56:01):
the Patriots offense has not been good. That plays in
the Buffles hands because the Bills have not been great,
in particular at stopping deep passes. But the Patriots don't
have anybody who can attack deep. Stefan Diggs had his
best showing of the season last week. It was all
intermediate part of the field, and I know he's gonna

(56:23):
be itching to get some revenge here. I'm sure he will.
I'm sure they'll look to feature him because if he's
actually getting healthier well right now, he's the only established
weapon that Drake May actually has to go to him
and Hunter Henry. But no one attacked a deep part
of the field. If you're gonna play Josh McDaniels type
of offense, short middle, their version of stretching, it is

(56:48):
like fifteen yards that plays in the Bills hands. They're
trying to play downhill. Everybody from the secondary on end.
They don't want to have to cover your deep. They
on the corner, you can do it. But they can
play downhill. They can play zone and keep things in
front of them, and they can tackle. It's not a
good spot for the Patriots. I've been saying this since

(57:11):
the offseason. I don't know why the Patriots were as
popular with a pick as they were for a team
that wasn't in the playoffs last year to make the
playoffs this year. They didn't improve in enough places. It
is flat out didn't. Drake May is the real deal.
He is the real frigging deal. We got the same

(57:31):
song and dance going on with Josh and Daniels we
have in years past, Anemko offense, and the Bills are
sitting undefeated at a primetime matchup. I'm taking the Bills
to cover at eight and a half points without a doubt.
But I do have a prop. So let's talk a
little Drake May, since I brought him up anyway, I

(57:52):
want to talk about his rushing yards prop. So it's
sitting at twenty nine and a half going into this game.
I have him projected for nearly four now. His average
has been twenty nine, so he's basically been averaging what
the line is about six carries game twenty nine rushing
yards over last three games or so. The Bills are

(58:14):
up there with allowing rushing yards to the quarterback. Partly dude,
yes to Lamar Jackson, but it's more than that forty
nine point eight quarterback rushing yards per game so far
out of this defense. Said it before, this defense is
not playing great right now. Drake May is likely just

(58:35):
going off the expected team in line implied game script here,
likely gonna have a negative game script on his hands.
Likely is going to have the ball in his hands
quite often with extra dropbacks that he is then going
to have to scramble because I don't know how open
his weapons are necessarily going to get plus he is

(58:56):
getting designed runs. So all that adds up to Drake
May heading over on twenty nine and a half rushing
yards in that Sunday night game. Love the quarterbacks running,
love it everywhere, love it in fantasy, and love it
in my props. Let's talk about the Jacksonville Jaguars and
the Kansasity Chiefs, both teams two and two against the spread,

(59:17):
Chiefs looking much better of the last couple of weeks.
The Jaguars as a unit have been impressive. Right knocked
at the forty niners, we could go, as we found out,
even as banged up as the forty nine ers were,
the Rams still couldn't take care of them. And we
all thought the Rams were a pretty good team heading
into that king, So there's something to be said for that.

(59:37):
The Chiefs looked like a completely reborn offense with Xavier
Worthy back at the helm like Is that all It
took one speedy, competent receiver to make the offense look
like well as semblance of an offense. So the Chiefs
are favorite at three and a half points in this game.
It's Monday night, it's in Kansas City. Give me this

(01:00:00):
at all day, every day, why do I want you
to give you that all day every day. It's not
a knock against Liam Cohen. I'm not trying to say
that Jacksonville Jaguars defense is a farce. All Right, they
might be, but I'm not saying that. The reason why,
as one of my lock him end picks of the
Friggin' Week, is because Steve Spagnola and the Chiefs defense

(01:00:25):
versus Trevor Lawrence is a no contest Trevor Lawrence. And
I'm gonna say this tone blow in the face, and
I don't care how mad it mix. Everybody a bomb.
Trevor Lawrence is a bomb. He has the fourth worst
quarterback rating this season. The only quarterbacks he is better

(01:00:48):
than is Joe Flacco, Jake Browning and cam Ward. That's it.
So as good as the Jacksonville Jaguars have been, as
much as they have been winning so far into the
first month of the season, Trevor Lawrence is in the
company of Jake Browning, cam Ward and Joe Flacco. Are

(01:01:12):
you freaking kidding me? There's no way they beat the
Kannasy Chiefs with him playing like that. No chance, no
chance they cover at three and a half. None this
might be a little scoring game, and I'm fine with
taking the under a forty five and a half. I
think that's a little strong just considering the makeup of

(01:01:34):
these two teams right now. But give me the Chiefs
to cover three and a half points. No prom play,
mo moh. That's gonna wrap it up for the show.
I hope you guys enjoyed it. I hope you guys
are gonna take these bets, and I hope we win
a bunch of tickets going in the Sunday right make
sure you download Operation Domination on your favorite podcast app,

(01:01:57):
and make sure you look for a video content on
the Fantasy Football Advice Network YouTube channel at FF advice Net.
You can always find me on social media at Dan
Maider FF. And make sure you guys have a great
and wonderful weekend. Remember London game. Be ready for it
early Sunday morning.

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