Player Props to DOMINATE Week 4 🏈

Ready to DOMINATE Week 4 of the NFL season? 🏈 We've got everything you need to crush your fantasy football leagues and betting slips with the top player props and game insights! Host Dan Mater breaks down the ultimate game plan, covering the best bets, must-watch matchups, and key player props, including Jordan Mason, Justin Herbert, and more. Want to hear Chaz Valardi's hot takes? We’ve got those too, straight from his expert picks on the road.

Missed last week? No problem! This week, we’re bouncing back stronger with value-packed lines, expert analysis, and strategies to navigate the Sunday morning overseas game and beyond. Whether it’s advice on locking in your fantasy lineup or finding that edge with rushing yards props, we’ve got you covered.

Make sure to subscribe to the Fantasy Football Advice Network at FFadvice, hit that notification bell, and join our ever-growing community of sports enthusiasts. Don’t miss Dan’s article on The Huddle, featuring 15 favorite player props dropping every Saturday to keep you ahead of the game.

Let’s line those pockets green together—#fantasyfootball #NFLfootball #fantasyadvice #NFLweek4 #playerprops. Are you ready? Set your lineups, lock in your bets, and come back next week for more winning strategies!

#gameanalysis #nflmatchups #bettingodds #lineupadvice #bettingtrends
CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Intro
02:49 - MIN @ PIT Game Analysis
07:38 - NO @ BUF Game Breakdown
13:39 - LAC @ KC Matchup Insights
16:40 - Chargers vs Giants Preview
19:25 - Best Bets for the Week
25:01 - Commanders vs Falcons Review
30:36 - PHI @ TB Game Highlights
36:43 - IND @ LAR Key Takeaways
42:19 - JAX @ SF Analysis
46:25 - Browns @ Lions Overview
50:15 - Panthers @ Patriots Discussion
55:35 - Bears @ Raiders Recap
59:56 - BAL @ KC Game Predictions
1:03:05 - GB @ DAL Matchup Review
1:07:20 - NYJ @ MIA Game Insights
1:08:49 - CIN @ DEN Breakdown
1:11:00 - Outro


Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/operation-domination-football--6152403/support.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Operation Domination is underway, the ultimate game plan to dominate your.

Speaker 2 (00:09):
With your hosts. God, you gotta be confident about your achilles. Yeah,
I mean I got it.

Speaker 1 (00:20):
Don't hope be great? I'm dominated, all right?

Speaker 2 (00:28):
All right, all right, welcome into another edition of Operation Domination.
As always, I'm your host, Dan Mader. It's just me today,
just me. I haven't done a solo pod in forever.
Now we are gonna still hear from Jazz because while
he was traveling, have you guys been listening the last
couple of weeks, he was getting ready to travel to

(00:49):
Massachusetts hit some sports books over there. He did do
us the courtesy of dropping us a video with all
of his favorite plays from each game. So we'll still
hear from for Lori today. Of course, I'll talk about
the game lines that I like, the player props I
have in store for you today. Make sure you check
out my article that's going to be coming out once

(01:10):
again on the Huddle drops every Saturday with my fifteen
favorite player props on the weekend Slate, Sunday and Monday,
obviously not counting Thursday night games since well it drops
on Thursday. Make sure you download Operation Domination on your
favorite podcast app. Check out our video content on the

(01:31):
Fantasy Football Advice Network at YouTube channel at ff advice Net.

Speaker 1 (01:36):
And we got a lot to go over here. And
unlike last week where.

Speaker 2 (01:40):
We had a winning week, but it wasn't as successful
as week two, and we try to get back on track.
We want wide margins, right, That's what we're all about
here when we're trying to line our pockets screen. I
think we can do that this week. There's more value
from the lines, to what Chaz is going to have
for us, to the player props this week. More things

(02:02):
kind of match up nicely, and we're gonna get through
all of it. So let's kick it off now. Remember this,
you know, primarily except for this episode being a fantasy
football type podcast, there's a game on Monday or a
Sunday morning at nine to thirty on the East Coast
six point thirty on Pacific at one o'clock in the morning.

(02:22):
If you're in Hawaii or Towy, it might be midnight.
Actually it's a six hour difference. It's so make sure
if you have your fantasy football lineups in uncertainty, make
sure you lock them up Saturday night.

Speaker 1 (02:36):
Don't be the guy who.

Speaker 2 (02:37):
Wakes up Sunday morning like, oh, I forgot there was
a game, and you wound up having somebody like I
don't know, maybe Jordan Mason on the bench, and you're screwed.
We don't want that here because it is the Vikings
taking on the Steelers this game in Dublin for this
week now. As far as the game lines go, the
Vikings are favored at two and a half points. That

(02:58):
should come as no surprise. The Steelers have been very uneven,
which also shouldn't be a surprise given that they were
rolling with Aaron Rodgers and a team that was going
to be highly dependent on Aaron Rodgers and Arthur Smith meshing.
And while they've won a couple of games, it hasn't
meshed very well recently. The offense still has a lot

(03:20):
of woes. The number one paid defense in the league
hasn't stopped a nosebleed. And that's why the Vikings with
Carson Wentz are favored in this game at two and
a half points. The over under total forty and a half.
We're not expecting a lot of fireworks in this game,
and I would even lean towards betting the under on

(03:41):
that The only reason I would even be skeptical about
betting the under would be that I do think Carson
Wentz's play right now is an improvement over what we've
seen in JJ McCarthy those first couple of games. But
the offense is still going to be centered around Jordan
Mason and making sure they hide wins and don't overexpose them.

(04:04):
But since the Steelers defense doesn't stop anybody, that's the
only risk I see to an under in this ball game.

Speaker 1 (04:10):
And I do like the Vikings to win at minus
two and a half.

Speaker 2 (04:13):
Brian Flores has that defense playing well, and I'm not
just talking about last week when they went when they
went to Psycho through the roof. All right, that's obviously
not gonna happen every single week. Aaron Rodgers is not
going to turn over the ball quite to that level
the way Jake Browning did. But I do think the
Vikings are the better team right now, are more in

(04:33):
sync right now. Now, some betting those for you the Steelers,
This should go to Bolts to the point, last seven
games are two and five against the spread. They haven't
been able to win anyway, So take give me the
Vikings minus two and a half in this game, I
do have a player prop for you, but first I
want to hear from Chas FLHARDI with his bets for

(04:54):
this one.

Speaker 1 (04:57):
So play Broke.

Speaker 3 (05:00):
Oh we're sitting in midway, what are you gonna do?
You know? It's so funny because I got some notes
here that these early ws and l's that your team gets,
they're not relative because you don't know what you're doing,
what's in terms of the lead you're playing and who's
good and who isn't good. But this Minnesota Pittsburgh game,

(05:22):
I'm a big Ones fan.

Speaker 1 (05:23):
I like him, but.

Speaker 3 (05:24):
Cincinnati, Cincinnati got win. It may not mean anything. Pittsburgh
seven TV passes in three games for the old guys
d I think it leads a league New Orleans against.

Speaker 1 (05:36):
The spread on the Okay, we'll get that. We'll get
the New Orleans in a second. There.

Speaker 2 (05:42):
So Chas right there kind of telling you, hey, I'm
not sure about this game either.

Speaker 1 (05:48):
It could go either way. That's most of the NFL.

Speaker 2 (05:50):
But I will lean on the Vikings in this matchup
because I don't like what I've seen out of the Steelers.
You already have Aaron Rodgers complaining about when they got
to Ireland, as if somehow that's going to affect anything
about what is a less than mediocre play at this
point in his career with a less than mediocre offensive
coordinator and Arthur Smith.

Speaker 1 (06:12):
I mean, riddleby this. You guys who have DK Metcalf,
you know this.

Speaker 2 (06:16):
Why is suddenly the most physical phenom, deep threat wide
receiver in the league running patterns like he's Cooper Cup Like,
That's what's happening right now, and that's what we have
to deal with. Plus the defense, I can't stop anybody.
So give me that my player prop for this game
that I'm going to be locking in and I'll talk

(06:39):
more about this in my article tomorrow. In the huddle,
Jordan Mason over on his rushing yards right now, it's
eighty one and a half the over underline I got
him projected for ninety seven and a half going into
this game. It's one of my biggest edges of the week. Now, Mason,
who has only started and been to Belcow for one game,
is averaging seventy one yards per game on thirteen carries

(07:01):
so far this season. And we know that that is
skewed by the fact that Aaron Jones was in the
ball game the first two weeks.

Speaker 1 (07:09):
Now Jones is out.

Speaker 2 (07:11):
Mason was a bell cow over one hundred yards and
two touchdowns just a week ago with a twenty one
implied point total out of Minnesota. It favors the neutral
game script, which right now, the Vikings are very much
a run first team and the Steelers having getting gashed
in the run game. So give me Jordan Mason over

(07:31):
the eighty one and a half rushing yards mark. Now
you're in the Sunday and one of the biggest over
unders of the week. First of all, before we even
get into this game, I feel really bad for Saints fans,
Like whenever you're a fan of a team that you
know has no hope going into the season, before anything

(07:53):
kicks off, it's a demoralizing situation because you're gonna watch
the games because you're a fan of the NFL, you're
a fan of your team, and you just know, you
just know you're in for a rough Sunday.

Speaker 1 (08:06):
And right now the Bills.

Speaker 2 (08:07):
Are favored in fifteen and a half be double digit,
not just double digit, but three score underdogs in an
NFL game.

Speaker 1 (08:16):
Woof, they had the deal with Spencer Rattler.

Speaker 2 (08:19):
Whoof to waste a second round pick on a twenty
six year old quarterback who couldn't even beat out Spencer
Rattler and Tyler Shuck whoof? I mean, it's gotta be
rough to be a Saints fan right now, and it's
not gonna get any better going up against one of
the best teams in the AFC with the Buffalo Bills.
So if you're asking me, hey, Dan, this is the NFL.

(08:41):
When you get these big spreads, are you actually going
to bet against it? Being that anything can happen on
any given Sunday, the answer is yes. We saw this
a couple of weeks ago when the Browns were double
digit underdogs against the Ravens and the Ravens blew them
out forty to ten. Now you can say, well, wait
a minute, they came back as green Bay.

Speaker 1 (09:00):
But guess what.

Speaker 2 (09:00):
The Browns weren't even double digit underdogs against green Bay.
Green Bay was favorite in that game by minus eight
and a half. So even the books thought those two
teams were closer together and talent. I see nothing wrong
with this line. The total is sitting at forty seven
and a half. What's crazy about the total is that
that strictly comes down to Buffalo being able to put

(09:21):
up thirty plus points in this game, which they absolutely could.
The one thing I'll say about Buffalo, and maybe this
plays against the line too, they have a tendency to
want to play with their food. So when they have
a team like the Saints who are well below them,
they don't always look to just blow them out. But
in this case, the talent alone may just do that

(09:43):
for them just naturally. They may be up twenty five
to thirty points heading into the second half of this game.
That's a real scenario in this one. Now, I will
say this, Josh Allen, he hasn't been great against the spread.
When he's a double digit favorite. He's six ten and two. Again,

(10:04):
that goes back to my point of sometimes the Bills
like to play with their food. But the Saints haven't
covered anything. They covered against the forty nine ers. That's it,
that's all they did so far. It's been brutal, absolutely
brutal having to watch this team just devoid of talent. Now,
before it gets to my player props in this one,

(10:24):
because at least that's the beauty of betting. We can
still line our pockets even on a lop side of
affair like this, I do want to hear from Chas
Florida to see what he has on this game.

Speaker 3 (10:34):
One and six. They just can't score Buffalo's back to
back home against this r third home game already this year.
I like their team total.

Speaker 2 (10:41):
Over thirty one and a half.

Speaker 3 (10:43):
Cleveland has scored zero.

Speaker 2 (10:46):
Okay, so right there, Jazz is telling you take Buffalo
in the over. I don't know if I would take
the game over because I don't even know if the
Saints can put up. Let's let's say they get thirty
one and a half like they're implied to do. I
don't even know if the Saints gets sixteen. I really don't.
They have a hard time moving the ball, and the
Bills defense is actually playing quite well outside of the

(11:07):
Baltimore game. So yeah, Bill's over sure over on the
game staying away from that line. So I do like
the bet there from Chas. Let's talk about my player props.
Speaking of Spencer Rattler and sucking the line on him
is two hundred and five and a half passing yards.

(11:27):
Now you might say to yourself, well, Dan, he's averaging
two hundred and thirteen because they're throwing the ball fifty
times a game, because they know just coming out of
the gate, just based on kickoff, even when the scores
zero zero, as soon as the kickoff happens, they're in
a negative game. Script Kellamore's already trying to play catchup
ball because it's the only shot he has to keep

(11:47):
the game somewhat competitive. I will give him this credit, though, says,
have played hard. You can see the effort, you can
see the heart out there, and that should be a
shout out to all those players, because it's a player
going into a Sunday, well, you know you're already doomed
to still go out there and give your best effort.

(12:08):
There is something to be applauded for that that says
something about the coach, says something about those players. Doesn't
change the fact that you're duned from the start, and
doesn't change the fact that despite Spencer Rattler throwing the
ball a near fifty times a game, that I still
have the under his two hundred and five and a
half passing yards mark because I only have him projected

(12:31):
at one hundred and ninety five point seven heading into
this week, So that gives him a fifty nine point
seven percent cover probability heading into this game based on
my projections. Remember, the Saints are only implied for eighteen
points woof the Buffalo Bills have only allowed four hundred

(12:51):
and thirty eight passing yards so far this season through
three games, and they haven't all been cupcakes. So, with
the Bills defense playing well, with the Saints having no
explosion in their game, because Spencer Ratler is averaging only
a five point seventy three yards per attempt, I'm taking
the under on Spencer Ratler's prop. And coincidentally, if you

(13:15):
want a fantasy implication on this, real quick look outside
of full point PPR leagues, because Chris o'lave could get
eight to ten catches even though it goes for fifty yards,
he's still a decent fantasy play in full point PPR
halfpoint standard. Maybe go with a better option if you
have the ability to do so. So now we talk

(13:37):
about the Chargers in the Giants, and in this matchup
we get the interesting narrative of Jackson Dart being able
to make his first start, Russell Wilson finally on the bench.

Speaker 1 (13:51):
Why did they bother? Why on earth did they bother.

Speaker 2 (13:56):
They knew they had a hard schedule, especially the first
six weeks of the season, but really all year. I mean,
the Giants got screwed for a team that was not
good last season, There's no doubt about that. But why
did you go out and sign Jameis Winston and Russell
Wilson to turn around and play Jackson Dart in Week

(14:18):
four of the NFL season? What was the point? I
know you, I know when you do things in theory,
you're hoping for a better result than what winds up happening.
But I'm talking to you as the viewer or the listener.
Did any of you really think that Russell Wilson was

(14:40):
going to do any better than what he's done the
first three weeks of the season. I mean, he had
four unfit the yards against the Dallas Cowboys. That was
a shock in and of itself. So basically, what I'm
saying is that anybody who is not in the Giants
organization could have told you that you were going to
be moving on for Russell Wilson sooner rather than later. Anyway,

(15:04):
at least with Jameis Winston, you would have given yourself
a shot. The offense would have taken some pressure off
the defense. Yes, turnovers, turnovers, turnovers, but he also can
make the big plays. And if you were going to
truly want to sit Jackson Dart until he was ready,

(15:24):
would you bother with Russell Wilson for And here's what's
funny to me on this is just the icing on
the cake for me. The amount of reports and players
chiming out on social media and the videos that you
see during practice, it's clear that there's actually a buzz

(15:45):
inside the Giants locker room. Like it tells you that
the players were already ready after not even a month
of the season to turn on Russell Wilson and are
jacked up about Jackson dark who, let's face it, while
I've gone through practice, have no idea how he's going
to perform on Sunday, nobody does.

Speaker 1 (16:06):
What does that mean?

Speaker 2 (16:06):
It's the opportunity of hope with Russell Wilson. You know
what was going to happen. It was going to be
one moon ball after another with a fifty percent completion
percentage and a quarterback who used to be mobile still
thinks he does it, still thinks he is but is not.
You knew that was going to happen.

Speaker 1 (16:28):
Teams just sat there and said, we're just gonna blitze
you and play.

Speaker 2 (16:30):
Two safeties deep and take away anything that you potentially
could do. So it does get interesting from that standpoint
that the Chargers, no matter how you slice it, are
not going to be able to fully be prepared with
a game plan this Sunday because well, there's a lot
of things you just haven't seen. That doesn't mean they
won't dominate on defense. Jesse mentors a hell of a

(16:52):
defensive coordinator. Chargers have a talented defense. There's also a
real shot here we find out Jackson Dart flat out
is not ready. There's a million different ways this thing
could break down, which is why this game becomes interesting
at least from a narrative standpoint and what we get
to see. But that's where we take advantage embedding because

(17:13):
on the other side, while we have no idea what's
the Giants offense is going to look like, we do
know that the Chargers offensively might have the MVP of
the season right now in Justin Herbert, just based on
the first three weeks and how he's playing phenomenal football.

Speaker 1 (17:30):
Quinton Johnston went.

Speaker 2 (17:32):
From a guy who were like, okay, they're going to
replace him with Trey Harris to like Quintin Johnson might
be a real player. Keenan Allen is drinking from the
fountain of youth. Lad McConkie hasn't even gotten going yet,
and we know what he can do. And Marian Hampton
hasn't gotten going yet, and we know what he can
do because of his talent profile. And we got a
taste of it last week when Najie Harris got knocked

(17:54):
out of that game. So the Chargers right now are
favored on the East Coast at six and a half points.
And I know in years past it's always been a
little bit of a death sentence whenever the Chargers go
from West to East and our favorite in a ballgame.

Speaker 1 (18:12):
I get it.

Speaker 2 (18:13):
But this is a different Chargers team and a Giants
team is still a mess. Chargers right now are two
to zero to one against the spread to start the season.

Speaker 1 (18:24):
The total has moved down.

Speaker 2 (18:26):
It started out at forty five and a half, it's
now down to forty three and a half heading into
this matchup, So they're expecting a little bit lower scoring,
probably because they're not sure what the Giants exactly are
going to do and the Chargers wants to get up
by a couple of scorers, may just cruise control this
thing out of here, completely and utterly possible.

Speaker 1 (18:48):
So this is actually a game because of the unknown variables.

Speaker 2 (18:52):
I don't want to bet between the Chargers having to
go from east coast to west coast, we don't what
we don't know about Jackson Dart and how this offense
will look. I'm not betting this game. Are the Chargers
the superior team, yes, but Jackson Dart might add enough juice.
Brian Dable might coach with enough creativity because his job

(19:13):
is on the line now that he has made this statement.
At this point in the season, we may see a
better effort out of New York then you normally anticipate
in a matchup like this. So I'm staying away from
this game. I'd love to hear what Chaz has to say.

Speaker 3 (19:30):
So in the last seven first quarters, that's one hundred
and five minutes of football, put out a point the
showbour on the road. They're one and eight against the spread.
I like that, Detroit, but I'm taking that minus one
thirty at minus nine and a half. This could be
one of those games. Where the team that wins their

(19:50):
team total goes over, the team that loses their team
total goes under and cash every bet. Detroit's offense is
put up three hundred and ninety four.

Speaker 1 (20:00):
It's a game.

Speaker 3 (20:00):
Cleveland is putting up two oh three fifteen total six
at twenty seven.

Speaker 2 (20:04):
And a half.

Speaker 3 (20:05):
U should have scored thirty eight points in three games.
Fantasy is two and fourteen against the spread. God bless
you if you could five props on that game Washington
in the second half over fifteen.

Speaker 2 (20:18):
Okay, I guess we'll have to fight it later. He
must have went out of order on me. It's it's
it's okay. We'll get back to it. But I do
have props in the Chargers Giants game, just getting back
to the original point. Hopefully you hear what he said
about the Detroit Lions there. So I have justin Herbert
over his passing yards prop two hundred and fifty four
and a half passing yards of the over under. I
got him projected at two hundred and seventy seventy three

(20:41):
point seven heading into this one, giving him a sixty
eight point three percent cover probability and a nineteen point
two edge He's been averaging two hundred and eighty six
passing yards per game on thirty six attempts at game
thirty six attempts, Greg Row, when's the last time you

(21:02):
thought you were ever going to see a Greg Roman
offense have his quarterback throwing the ball thirty six times
a game? Now, I remember saying in the offseason I
thought the Chargers would throw more than people anticipated. I
was projecting thirty two to thirty three, not thirty six. Like,

(21:23):
those few extra pass attempts make a huge difference. And
I think even if the Chargers were to be up big,
let's say come the third quarter and go on cruise
control on the fourth, that Justin Herbert gets over that
prop even potentially before then. The Giants have allowed the

(21:46):
third most passing yard so far this season at eight
hundred and eighteen for the year and four touchdowns. The
Giants have a very good front seven, they have a
good pass rush, they got a good front four. It
has been as easy to run on them. That secondary
is still a problem, still a problem. And because it's

(22:06):
Greg Roman, because it's Jim Harball, teams have come in
looking to stop the run. Because of his old tendencies. Now,
I don't know the Giants decide, Okay, we're just gonna
throw that out and play what we've seen the first
three weeks of the season thus far. There will be
an element to that, of course, but all the way,

(22:27):
I don't know if that'll be the case.

Speaker 1 (22:30):
So give me Justin Herbert over.

Speaker 2 (22:35):
Two hundred and fifty four and a half passing yards,
as I think the Charger will be able to throw.

Speaker 1 (22:39):
As much as they want to early in this ballgame.

Speaker 2 (22:43):
They do have another one for you though, because don't
figure about the rushing game and Maurin Hampton might be
running out the clock in the second half. But regardless,
Najie Harris is now out for the year, which makes
a Marion Hampton a bellcal usage running back.

Speaker 3 (22:59):
Now.

Speaker 2 (22:59):
I know week one that didn't amount to much, but
the Kansas City Chiefs defense is a heck of a
lot better than this Giants defense. As much as Giants
defens has talent and there's some things to be excited about,
the Chiefs defense is still a full unit, especially against
a run.

Speaker 1 (23:17):
Last week.

Speaker 2 (23:17):
Though we did see a spark out of him are
In Hampton. It looked like something finally triggered loose. He
got out in the perimeter, he got on the edge,
he got in the second level, and I think that
might be a sign of things to come, especially in
this game. Right now, his rushing yards prop sits at
sixty four and a half. I do have him projected

(23:39):
for a bullish eighty six point two, giving him an
eighty five point nine percent cover probability.

Speaker 1 (23:46):
WHOA what are you talking about, Dan Marian?

Speaker 2 (23:51):
Hampton's only averaged forty seven point three rushing yards per
game on fourteen carries. Well, again, those volume numbers throw
them out the window because Naji Hears is now gone
and guys like Kamani Vadal are the backups who are
not going to steal very many touches with Naji al

(24:16):
We should see Hampton's team carries of sixty four percent
and his target share of ten percent rise. And the
Giants right now are a team that you can run on.
They're allowing five yards per carry and averaging one hundred
and ten yards. They're rushing the running back allowed per

(24:38):
game at the moment. So I Vamar and Hampton, if
last week was an opportunity for him to start busting loose,
start seeing that talent come to life that we know
he has from North Carolina. This is a matchup where
it could happen. So I have him confidently over the
sixty four and a half rush yards.

Speaker 1 (25:00):
Mark.

Speaker 2 (25:02):
Let's talk about that Commanders and Falcons game. And I'm
gonna see if I can work out the video with
Chads Flherdi there. But it might be a little bit,
it might be a little bit all over the place
that I don't want to go chasing and throwing you
guys lines that we're not talking about at the moment,
just like we did there, and I apologize. So getting
back to the Commanders and Falcons, what a mess the Falcons?

Speaker 1 (25:23):
Where we could go? How do you go from.

Speaker 2 (25:27):
Beating the Minnesota Vikings twenty two to six running all
over the Minnesota Vikings. Brian Flora's teams are never teams
that you're able to run on easily, ever, and Beijeon
did whatever he wanted. And then you fast forward a week.
You take on the Carolina Panthers, who everybody has been

(25:48):
running on since last season. And I brought this up before.
Their defense has not changed much. It's basically the same
starting defensive line, which is why they're just as porus
against the run this season as they were a year
ago to this point. And instead of leaning on the
same game plan that you had against the Minnesota Vikings,

(26:10):
you decide to go pass first, you decide not to
ride Bijon on the ground. It made no sense. Well, Dan,
they were down. They lost a game thirty or nothing.
It was negative game script. That game was not out
of hand until midway through the third quarter. They had
already been the run before that. It was like the

(26:31):
Falcons were determined they were going to throw the ball,
which the one thing the Carolina Panthers have been competent against.

Speaker 1 (26:38):
It made no sense.

Speaker 2 (26:40):
We saw the Falcons this past week fire their wide
receiver coach and move Zach Robinson from the booth to
the sideline. Woo, Like that's going to do something. What
fire the wide receiver coach moving on the booth to
the sideline. That's that's not something new. That's something when

(27:03):
coordinators are trying to mix something up, they try that out.
Sometimes it worked, sometimes it doesn't. I don't care about that,
neither here nor there. Firing the wide receiver the wide
receivers coach is the one that make the scapegoat. That's
the problem here. What are we talking about? Zach Robinson
is a bum, That's the problem. People that come up

(27:27):
Michael Pennock looked like a deer in headlights. Well he did,
but did you listen to the comments? He wasn't prepared
for what he was seeing out there? Look, there's times
sure defensive coordinators get creative and throw out a game
plan that you've never really seen before. It also tells
me the coaching staff didn't have you prepared. And I

(27:48):
do say the coaching staff. I don't put that on
Michael Pennix because from all counts, Michael Penox is nothing
but a student in the film room constantly.

Speaker 1 (27:57):
The guy lives in breeze football.

Speaker 2 (27:59):
So I'm to give players like that who we know
have that mentality a benefit of the doubt, and that
if he wasn't seeing what he needed to see, was
completely confused out there, where's the coaching Because look, even
if they came up with a game plan that you
did not expect, then you need to adapt your play

(28:19):
calling to make things a little bit easier to get
on rhythm. That's being an offensive coordinator. And I had
to sit there and watch Zach Robinson have Drake London
and Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts run the same routes
over and over and.

Speaker 1 (28:38):
Over again, expecting something to work.

Speaker 2 (28:40):
The definition of insanity. Now they get the Commanders this Sunday.
I guess the silver lining is Jayden Daniels is not
going to play this week. It's gonna be Marcus Mariota again.
Who gets to take out his revenge on the Atlanta Falcons.
How much revengeer is probably none. But the problem is

(29:03):
going to be the defense. Look, I don't think the
Commander's defense is as good as they've looked to this point,
and it's a very old defense at that. But you
can't trust the Atlanta offense to actually take advantage of
anything right now. Anyway, Commanders coming into this game on
the road are favored at minus one and a half points,
and that's after we got confirmation that Marcus Mariota is

(29:28):
going to be the quarterback.

Speaker 1 (29:30):
Still favored on the road.

Speaker 2 (29:32):
That's what the book makers think of the Atlanta Falcons
right now. Now here's what I will say in the
Falcons defense. As far as betting this game. They're three
to zero.

Speaker 1 (29:48):
On the under.

Speaker 2 (29:50):
The over underline setting at forty five and a half,
based on the way the Falcons office is played, based
on the fact that Marcus Mariota and not Jane Damo
is going to be playing, based on the fact that
Terry Lauren is not going to be playing in this game.
Betting the under at forty five and a half does
seem like a good way to go. It does because
the Falcons defense on the other side has actually been

(30:11):
very good.

Speaker 1 (30:13):
They really have.

Speaker 2 (30:14):
They just gave way because they're on the field for
so much at the time and so many bad turnovers
a week ago against the Carolina Panthers. They've been pretty good.
So the game like this. I do like the under
in this game, but I don't have a ton of
props for you in this one because there's a lot
of variables, and I don't like a ton of variants
when I try to give you guys props. Now, let's

(30:37):
talk about the Eagles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So
the Eagles again on the road, a lot of road
favorites this week. Typically that doesn't play out very well,
so it's interesting to see this I understand though. So
the Eagles are favored at three and a half points
going into Tampa Bay. The over understanding at forty three
and a half. And yeah, people will talk about Jalen

(31:01):
Hurds being one and two against the Tampa Bay Bucks.
This is a very banged up Bucks offense right now.
And while I will stand pat on, I have not
liked what I've seen out of the Eagles offense, with
the exception of one half of football last week against
the Rams, when their backs were against the wall and

(31:22):
they had no other choice, they finally threw it to
the perimeter. They finally got the ball in the hands
of their wide receivers who make plays, and actually threw
the ball more than five yards past the line of scrimmage.
But it took two and a half games to do it,
and then to be down by three scorers.

Speaker 1 (31:37):
To follow through. But why why did it take so long?

Speaker 2 (31:42):
Why did it take that situation for you to optimize
what your team's ability is. Now you can look at
that as one of two things, a sign that the
Eagles figure something out and we'll move forward on it,
which if you're an Eagles fan, that's probably what you're
hoping for, or that they're only gonna get aggressive when
they absolutely have to and therefore let lesser teams hang

(32:06):
around longer than they should. The Rams had him dead
the rights. They were up twenty six to seven at
one point in that game. The Rams just had a lapse.
Eagles finally got aggressive. This reminds me so much of
two years ago with the Philadelphia Eagles, when Shane Stiken
had to become the head coach of the Colts and

(32:28):
Nick Sereni brought in I believe his name was Brian
Robinson or Brian Johnson, excuse me, Brian Johnson. He brought
Brian Johnson to take over one of his guys from
Indianapolis days. And it looked the same way. Remember the
Eagles went ten and oh that year. They went ten

(32:49):
and oh before that collapse, But the whole time they
were winning ball games simply because they were just more
talented than everybody else. You saw the cracks, you saw
the dysfunction and how that play call was working, and
how everybody was just hanging around and hanging around, and
finally the levee broke because players just got flat out frustrated.

(33:09):
Because the one thing about the Eagles team is that
while they're very talented, they got a lot of personality,
and it doesn't really matter so much if they're winning.
If they're guys like AJ Brown don't eat, that becomes
a squeaky wheel, and that squeaky wiel does not get greased,
it becomes a problem. We've seen it already with this
exact team, and I'm a little bit curious we might

(33:31):
be seeing a repeat of that. Not to that extreme,
I don't think they would implode the way that they
did a year ago, being that they are Super Bowl
champions and they were in a Super Bowl hangover that season.
I do think that makes a big difference, but I
have my radar up for that. As far as this
matchup goes, what they run into here is that I'm

(33:53):
still taking the Eagles to cover at monastery and a half. Ultimately,
Tampa Bay's just two banged up on offense. Eagles defense
is still very good, still playing very good. While I've
had questions about the offensive play calling, I've had no
questions about mcvangio and how that defense has been playing.
And now Mike Evans for Tampa Bay is out. Chris

(34:15):
Godwin may may not be back this week. I think
people were hopeful. I think we put a little. We
had doctor Brian Scott on the other day saying like, eh,
might be another week, might be another week.

Speaker 1 (34:27):
I don't think he's quite ready.

Speaker 2 (34:28):
That's what doctor Brian Scott said, and he's usually pretty
dead on the money in those things. He was with
Jane Daniels and Terry mclaura this week. So that's the case.
You have Amika Buca, Kay Dotton, who's been a non factor,
and Bucky Irving, and that's pretty much the whole offense.
I don't think that's enough firepower to be able to

(34:49):
truly contend with the Eagles for all four quarters. And
while I've had questions about the Eagles and the close
games that they've been having, even against lesser competition the
Tampa Bay Bucks. I know they're three to zero, but
they've done it in some dramatic last game fashion. And
while it's fun to win and there's our times, you

(35:10):
have to win those type of games in the NFL,
having to depend to win those games in that fashion
that consistently does not hold up in the long term.
So give me the Philadelphia Eagles cover at three and
a half points in this matchup.

Speaker 1 (35:27):
I do.

Speaker 2 (35:27):
However, speaking of Abuca, have some props for you. So
his receiving yards is sitting at sixty one and a
half right now. I haven't projected for seventy three point one,
giving him a seventy two point four percent cover probability
and about eleven point six of an edge. He's averaging
sixty yards per game anyway, you know, leading up to

(35:52):
this point on five receptions a game, he's got a
ninety five percent route rate heading into right now, in
a twenty five percent target share, mostly attacking the middle
of the field. Now he will see his fair share
of Cooper dejen And that's not necessarily a matchup that
you definitively won. But the matchup he projects to have
the second most is a Dori Jackson, and that's a

(36:14):
matchup that everyone to this point has been able to
take advantage of. Plus no, Mike Evans probably know Chris Godwin.
There's only one place for the ball to go to.
So just off of sheer volume, I expect to Mecca
Abuka to get over this sixty one and a half

(36:36):
yard player prop in this matchup. That's the bet I
feel the best about. Now we have the Colts and
we have the Rams. Now this is one of the
games I'm more excited to watch. Remember, the Rams were
collapse away from being three and oh. Colts are three
and oh, So this is gonna be a fun game

(36:56):
on Sunday at the four o'clock hour. Rams are at
home their favorite at three and a half. The total
is forty six and a half in this game, so
we should see a decent amount of scoring, which is
what I would expect with the way we've seen these
two teams play at this point in the season. And
the Colts just aren't three and oh, they're actually three
and oh against the spread as well, and the Rams,

(37:17):
just like their record is two and one against the spread.
Doesn't always work out that way, but these two teams
are they're they're.

Speaker 1 (37:23):
Against spread records and their actual records are the same.
But both the Rams wins are as underdogs, So it's interesting.
This is a game I'm not gonna bet.

Speaker 2 (37:41):
There's been a lot of people talking about is this
the week Indiana Jones goes back to being.

Speaker 1 (37:49):
You know, Daniel Jones of the New York Giant days.

Speaker 2 (37:51):
Because the Rams defense is quite good and they have
they have a hell of a pass rush. I don't
think he does I don't know if he has a
blow up game again. The Rams defense is pretty solid,
but the Achilles heel of the Rams is a team
that can run power football, and that's what the Colts
primarily are. As great as Daniel Jones has been, it's

(38:15):
been on the back of the fact that Shane Steichen
has gotten Jonathan Taylor going again and has broken out
a power football offense of which he can build play
action and quick, easy schemes for the passing concepts that
have made Daniel Jones' life really easy. And he might

(38:40):
be asking like, well, say Kwon Barkley didn't have a
great game, Say Quwin Barkley hasn't looked good this year.
Jonathan Taylor looks like he might be the rusher of
the year. That's the difference. This Colt seems more equipped
to attack the Rams in that sense that I think
the Eagles are right now, so that I think this
puts him in a tough bind and make this game

(39:00):
too close in my opinion to call one way or another.
But I am going to cash some tickets on this game.
I can feel it because I have two player props
for you. So the first one's Kyraen Williams rushing yards
sitting at seventy two and a half. I got him
projected for eighty nine point four yards with a sixteen

(39:21):
point nine edge and an eighty point four percent cover
probability in this game. So he's averaging seventy eight yards
per game anyway, So he's literally averaging over what his
prop is for the ballgame on seventeen carries a game
and a fifty nine percent success rate. Awesome, Seventy five
percent of the team snaps, seventy one percent of the
team carries. Kyraen Williams is getting as much volume as

(39:44):
you would want him to get. Is it as much
as he was getting the last two years? No, but
what he's been getting the past two years was not sustainable.
He's still getting bellcal level usage. That's all we really
care about. At the end of the day. The Colts
are allowed seventy two rushing yards per game to the

(40:04):
running back position, which is right at the prop. So
between Kiren and the Colts events everything to me screams
that he should be able to hit the over this week.
The next one should come as no surprise. Poko Nakua
is somebody I've been riding three weeks in a row,
and he has not let me down a single time.

(40:24):
The difference, though, and I hope I don't jinx myself
on this, but the difference this game is that I'm
not actually attacking his receiving yards like I had been.
I'm attacking his receptions. DeVante Adams is a little bit
banged up. We'll have to see if he's able to go,
but his reception prop is sitting at seven and a half.
I got him projected at nine point seven. The guy

(40:45):
is getting like double digit touches. It's insane. Pooka Nakula
is the number one wide receiver in fantasy football right now,
and yet he hasn't scored a touchdown. Think about that
for a second number one fantasy football wide receiver but
hasn't scored a touchdown.

Speaker 1 (41:06):
I didn't think that was possible.

Speaker 2 (41:08):
That's how much volume and how many yards he's getting.

Speaker 1 (41:14):
And the Colts are not a team that scare you
for wide receivers.

Speaker 2 (41:17):
They're allowing They allowed six hundred and sixty one wide
receiver yards so far on thirty nine receptions, which is
about seventeen yards per reception. They're allowing chunk plays to
the wide receivers, and with Devoncee Adams banged up and
we don't know if he's actually gonna be able to go,
that just may add to the already crazy target share

(41:40):
that puk Nikoua has, which by the way, is number
one in the league. So give me the over on
pookin Nikoua's receptions at seven and a half with a
decent betting odds because it is so high. I mean,
it's been, it's been everywhere, And you're like, well, Dan,
why are we taking chances on pro oppos that are
that high to begin with? Well, he's averaging eight catches

(42:03):
a game, he's averaging ten point three targets a game.
He is a thirty four percent first read share. Huh,
you think he's the featured part of the offense? I
do guess what Pokinakoo goes over all? Right, So let's
get to the Jaguars and the forty nine Ers. And
if you are watching the show, you can see my

(42:24):
vernon Davis Jersey in the background. If you have listened
to this show, you know I'm a forty nine Ers
fan and whenever I get the opportunity to bet the
forty nine Ers because my data lines up with my
team fandom. Oh, trust me, I take it. The forty
nine Ers in this game are favored at three and
a half points. Brock Party is going to play, which

(42:46):
is why the over undertotal went from forty five point
five to forty seven point five as soon as that
news was announced. I think the forty nine Ers are
the better team there. Definitely is a lot of things
the Jaguars. While I do think they're improving from what
we've seen in a year ago under Liam Cohen, there's
a lot of kinks that they're still need to get

(43:06):
worked out over there before I can put them in
a above average team category. Where the forty nine Ers,
even despite all of their injuries, are three to oh
and finding ways to win games.

Speaker 1 (43:19):
It's it's it's been.

Speaker 2 (43:20):
Ugly football, but it's been impressive at the same time
that they've been able to do this. I know, I
know everybody's going to talk about their schedule and all this.
I saw this thing on I wish I could remember
who posted it because I'd love to give them credit.
But I saw this meme on Twitter the other day
and it was pointing out of all the three and
oh teams what their opponent's records are, and they're talking

(43:42):
about how the Bills and the Chargers and all these
teams like their opponents combined records are all like one
to eight. Well, the forty nine ers opponents records four
and five, and it was I think it was the Eagles.
I'm drawing a little bit of a blank right now,
but I think it was the Eagles that they were
tied with as far as the three and oh teams
and what the opponent records were four and five, So

(44:03):
other three and zero teams, four and five was the
best combined opponent record.

Speaker 1 (44:10):
So we could talk.

Speaker 2 (44:10):
About how they have an easy schedule all they want to,
but of the undefeated teams they've played, other teams have
actually won ball game so far.

Speaker 1 (44:18):
I just want to point that out.

Speaker 2 (44:19):
And have done it without Brock for two weeks, without
brand Ayuk, without George Kittle, half of a Juwan Jennings.

Speaker 1 (44:31):
Now they have to do without Nick Bosa.

Speaker 2 (44:32):
They did it without Nick Bosa for most of the
game last week too, So it's been impressive from that standpoint,
even though admittedly it's been ugly ugly football. When I
look at this game, though, like I said, I bet
them anytime my model and my fandom can line up,
they don't necessarily in this matchup. While I have the

(44:54):
forty nine ers winning this game, and I would take
them on the money line, and it's minus one eighty five,
so it's not a bad money line to bet on
the three and a half, that half point hook, I'm
not crazy about it because I do see this as
a fuel goal game. I have San Francisco winning this
game twenty three to twenty. That half point hook, I
can't quite bet it, but a half point hook is

(45:17):
not enough for me to bet on the underdog on
the other side, because as much as the running game
has gotten fixed with Jacksonville, Trevor Lawrence has not worked
on his fundamentals at all. And that's what we're dealing with.
That's the issue. That's why that offense hasn't taken off
under Liam Cohen. I know he defended him the other day.

Speaker 1 (45:36):
I don't want to hear it.

Speaker 2 (45:37):
His fundamentals have not improved, and that's been the biggest
thing holding Trevor Lawrence back, more so than the coaching changes,
more so than anything else. The other thing about the
Jacksonville Jaguars. I don't necessarily buy into is that they
suddenly have a good defense. I know statistically they look
like a much more competent version than what they've had,
and they probably are a more competent version, but this

(45:58):
is not a top ten defense Like the day. It
would maybe make you believe in certain areas the team
you could definitely run at, the team you could definitely
hit over the middle on.

Speaker 1 (46:08):
So we'll see that, I think on Sunday. But a
game that I'm not necessarily.

Speaker 2 (46:12):
Betting lines on in this matchup, and there weren't any
props that I had a big enough edge on to
really bet on either, unfortunately, but the Browns and Lions,
and if I could back up chats video a little bit,
I might be able. I might be able to get
him to do the Browns and Lions. So bear with

(46:32):
me for one second too.

Speaker 3 (46:34):
So that means if you bet him two O three
team total six in twenty seven and a half usually
have scored thirty eight points and.

Speaker 2 (46:42):
Three half, well maybe not. Maybe it's not going to
work out. I tried, guys, I'm sorry.

Speaker 1 (46:50):
Detroit.

Speaker 2 (46:50):
The Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions heading into this game,
so The Lions are favored at minus nine and a
half points money line. They're minus six hundred, very much
expected to win this game with a total over under
of forty four and a half. For anybody who's played
football before, and I'm included in this, and actually played

(47:13):
like organized, whether it be high school, college, whatever the
case may have been, if you've ever been a team
that maybe wasn't that great, maybe we're having a losing season,
but you had that one rivalry game come into town,
and you had your best week of practice, and you're
focus all week, and you're even told how you're going

(47:34):
to get beat down that whole time, and you just
went into that game razor sharp. Everybody in your crew did,
and you pulled off an upset that no one expected
you to do with the energy and a drone it
takes to do that when you are clearly not the
better team. What happens typically the following week. For those

(48:00):
of you who have maybe not experienced that, I can
tell you from experience, you typically have a major letdown
the following week. It is hard to carry that focus,
that energy when you don't have the talent week over
a week. Even in the NFL, I've seen it a
million times before. I'm looking at the Browns as that

(48:23):
against the Lions this week. They had a big game
against the Packers. The defense played lights out, and the
defense is legitimately great, like if they had any semblance
of a quarterback. The Browns legitimately just based on the defense,
could be a Super Bowl contending team. That's how good
the defense is. So I don't want to sell them short.

(48:48):
But when Joe Flacco, who clearly can't move anymore, not
even to the left of the right, is giving up
the ball and turning over the ball the rate that
he is and putting the defen on the field at
the rate that he is, even great defenses will eventually
break in this league if they are on the field

(49:08):
two thirds of the game. That's the problem the Cleveland
Browns face this week against the Detroit Lions.

Speaker 1 (49:16):
That's the likelihood.

Speaker 2 (49:18):
It's why the bookmakers had the Lions favorite at nine
and a half points, and frankly, I don't think that's enough.
I think the Lions win this game by at least
seventeen points. So take the Lions minus nine and a half.
I feel real strong about that. Plus the Lions they
showed you something against the Ravens on Monday Night. They
didn't break a sweat in that game, and they pretty

(49:40):
much controlled it from start to finish. Now, grant you
that Ravens defense just may not be the defense we
all thought and hoped it.

Speaker 1 (49:47):
Would it would be. But that's besides the point.

Speaker 2 (49:51):
Jared Goff on the road in a Monday night game,
looked sharp, played well, and now they get to go
back home home against a lesser talented opponent, which they
always play well at home always. So give me the
Lions covering at nine and a half points. Panthers Patriots

(50:19):
not a game typically people would get excited about unless
you're a fan of the show when we talk about
bets and we talk about fantasy football, and that's the
beauty of it. So this line, I can't, I can't,
I can't. I can't believe one game, one game where
the Panthers offense didn't even play well. Remember brace Young. Yes,

(50:41):
they beat the Falcons thirty to nothing. Okay, he threw
one hundred and twenty yards. It had nothing to do
with the offense and everything to do with the circumstances
and the defense playing out of their minds. And they're
only five and a half point underdogs. I understand that
the Patriots have not played particularly fantastic football. I understand that,

(51:07):
but even the Patriots at home, I have should be
favored by six and a half points in this game
because they're finally gonna play a team that doesn't have
a very good offense. The Tenor rolland McMillan is going
to play, but don't forget he was banged up with
a calf issue. Clearly it's a minor one because again

(51:27):
he is gonna be good, He's gonna.

Speaker 1 (51:28):
Be clear to play.

Speaker 2 (51:31):
But once you have a calf issue, that type of
a soft tissue issue, that career as ugly head. At
any moment, if Tenorolla McMillan goes down, they have Chewba
Hubbard and nothing else. Remember, Jalen Cocher is not back yet.
Xavier gets out with a hamstring and that might be
a godsend that he's off the field.

Speaker 1 (51:51):
They might be better because he's not active. This is brutal.

Speaker 2 (51:57):
Drake may by himself in a matchup like this should
count for six points. Give me the Patriots to cover
at minus five and a half at home. The total
over under in this game is forty two and a half.
Give me the under. Neither offense is impressive right now.

(52:18):
I would be even more confident to say take the
Patriots plus ten if they would ever just solidify an
identity of their backfield, the running back group. Hermonders teams
sin fumble twice. We know we can't hold on to
the football. Antonio Gibson is Antonio Gibson a backup. What's

(52:41):
funny to me about Trayvon Henderson is that I got
scrutinized on social media for calling out the fact that
he was not a very good pass protector because everybody
else had a different narrative and a different perspective. Well,
PFF backed my play. PFF only had him as a
thirty three point two great. I believe it was as

(53:02):
a pass blocker as running back, which is in the
bottom tier, by the way. And yet everybody went to
tell me like, well, he was a pass catching back
in Ohio State and he made this block. There's highlights
for anything, guys, it's college. His fundamentals were never there.
He doesn't have a strong base. He needs to be
more technically sound. You want to know why he got

(53:22):
soft bench a couple of weeks ago because he blew
two blocks. That's why, so don't talk to me about
Trevon Henderson being a good pass protector. And that's why
even after two fumbles, we couldn't see him overtake Ramandra
Stevenson all the way to the point this week, where
as a guy who projects for fantasy football doesn't one

(53:45):
of the toughest backfields to project, because I still can't
project it as the Henderson taking over. Ultimately, I had
to look at this thing as like it's a three
way committee that's probably still leaning a little bit Stevenson.
Right now, why is that matter for game lines? Well,
once you actually establish who your playmakers are, an offense

(54:06):
tends to get an identity. When you get an identity,
you tend to play more efficiently. When you play more efficiently,
you tend to score more points. It's how it works.
Stop wasting our time, Josh McDaniels. But at any rate,
I do the Patriots covering at five and a half
points in this ball game, and I do a player

(54:27):
prop for you, So give me Hunter Henry over four
and a half receptions. I haven't projected for almost five.
So it's one of my smaller edges on the week,
but I feel pretty good about it considering Hunter Henry
has averaged about seven point three targets per game and
about four point three receptions per game already to this point,

(54:48):
like about a twenty percent target share. He's been the
number one target actually for Drake May so far. Week one,
I know his stat line didn't look fantastic, but he
had eight targets in that game. It's really just Week
two that was kind of holding the after he exploded
a week ago. And then the Panthers, excuse me, have
given up two hundred and twenty two receiving yards to

(55:08):
the tight ends so far. That is the worst in
the NFL. So it's a good match for Hunter Henry.
The volume should be there, being that Stefan Diggs is
not playing much, Pop Douglas is terrible, and Kayshawn Booty
and Matt Collins are just out there running the treadmill,
and Trayvon Henderson still has not been able to establish himself.
That leaves pretty much Hunter Henry as the only stable

(55:29):
target that Drake May has in a plus match up
here against the Panthers.

Speaker 1 (55:32):
So give me Hunter Henry in this one.

Speaker 2 (55:34):
All right, let's talk about the Bears and the Raiders,
and I'll try to speed this up a little bit.
So the Bears are favored at one and a half
points against the Las Vegas Raiders in this game. Or
I'm sorry, I take that back, I'm sorry. The Raiders
are favored at minus one and a half points in

(55:55):
Las Vegas over the Chicago Bears. Why why Yeah, that
sounder means give me my first underdog, straight up. Bet,
I am taking the Bears to beat the Raiders straight up.

(56:17):
It's always a little bit more confident to take underdogs
when it is only a one and a half point spread.
I will grant you that. But what about the Raiders
has been impressive? There's been a ton of questions about Chicago.

Speaker 1 (56:30):
Don't don't. Don't get me twisted here.

Speaker 2 (56:32):
I don't think just after one win suddenly this team
has turned a corner and this is gonna be the
team we all got excited about in the off season
just after that. No, but nothing about the Raiders has
been impressive. Nothing. Chip Kelly is up the crazy chip
Kelly things. Aston genty still has not been able to
get going. Gino Smith has been the Geno Smith He's

(56:54):
always been inconsistent in inconsistent situations.

Speaker 1 (57:01):
That's who he is.

Speaker 2 (57:04):
No, the Bears defense is not the Bears defense that
we are used to are accustomed to seeing.

Speaker 1 (57:10):
Absolutely not.

Speaker 2 (57:14):
But the offense has a lot of talent, and I
grant you it was the Dallas Cowboys last week. I
had Caleb Williams ready to go on my top five.
But the Raiders can't stop anybody either. In fact, I
have Caleb on a player prop his line set at
two hundred and thirty and a half passing yards. That's

(57:35):
a joke. I haven't projected for two hundred and forty.
I think my projection is even a little bit low,
to be honest with you, He's averaging two hundred and
thirty eight passing yards so far to this game, at
seven point seven yards per tempt and averaging about thirty
two to thirty five attempts per game with the Bears.
On top of it, Ben Johnson has been a pass

(57:57):
first guy. I don't think it's totally shocking, but in
neutral PASST eight fifty nine percent, that means the quarterback,
whether it's neutral or negative, is going to throw the football.
That's great for player props. So I love Caleb over
the tour in thirty and a half passing yards in

(58:18):
this game. And just to add a little sprinkle on top,
the Raiders have allowed seven hundred and thirty six passing
yards and four touchdowns so far this season the quarterbacks.
That puts them in the bottom ten. So unless the Raiders,
I mean unless the Chicago gets a big lead early
and they kind of call off the Dog's type of deal.

(58:38):
I don't see how Caleb doesn't hit this passing yards
prop to be honest with you.

Speaker 1 (58:43):
So that's what I feel good.

Speaker 2 (58:44):
So the Bears as underdogs straight up, and Caleb Williams
over tour and thirty and a half passing yards. Oh,
I'm sorry. I also have Ashton genty in this game.
Talked about him a little bit, so Ashton Gentsy talk
about him not getting going. So his player that I'm
targeting is his receiving yards. It's a third is at
thirteen point five. I have the under I Got'm projected

(59:09):
at nine point eight fifty seven point six percent probability
of coverage. The guy only has six targets through three games.

Speaker 1 (59:21):
He is three.

Speaker 2 (59:22):
Receiving yards on the season. Two targets a game at
three yards, one yard per game and his prop set
at thirteen and a half. The Raiders are not throwing
the ball to the running backs period, and even when
they do, it's Smir White and Dylan Labay who are

(59:43):
playing most of the passing situations.

Speaker 1 (59:46):
Is its stupid?

Speaker 2 (59:47):
Yes, what did you expect when you hired Chip Kelly
in the first place. So give me the under on
Ashton genty on his receiving yards. Let's get into the
Ravens Chiefs games. I think a lot of people are
looking forward to this game because it's just so shocking
that they're both one and three in this matchup. Ravens

(01:00:08):
on the road favored at minus three points right now,
it was at minus two and a half, and that's
why I jumped on it. That was what you always
want to jump on it early when you see that
two point five because if it goes to three, you
don't want to lose that hook, right, You want the
opportunity that they do win by three, that it won't
be a push. That's why you always trying to attack that.

(01:00:28):
But it had the line has moved because the money's
moved to mostly Baltimore. It has moved to three points
here people are talking about like the well, it's surprising
that the Ravens are on the road in their favor.
Why why is that surprising? I know everybody watches the
national primetime game, so there's more eyeballs on the Monday

(01:00:49):
night game, and they watched the Ravens get spanked by
the Detroit Lions.

Speaker 1 (01:00:51):
I get it.

Speaker 2 (01:00:53):
But if you've watched the Chiefs at all this season,
even in the Giants game, which they won comfortably twenty
two to six, you can tell that offense is broken.
All the talk that they had about being aggressive again,
getting the homes, throwing the ball down the field again,
does none of us come to fruition none of it.
And don't tell me it's because Xavier Worthy's been out.

(01:01:15):
It was always gonna take more than one guy for
this offense to be explosive again, was always good. It
takes a play callers change in philosophy from what we
have seen the past two years. And if you're gonna
sit there and telling them what Andy Reid was the
guy he was, Matt Naggy clearly has possessed Andy Reid

(01:01:37):
to the point where he has become a bubble screen
five yards from the line of scrimmage passing offense with
Pastrick frickin mahomes. It's maddening to watch, but that's what
we have going on right now. So even if you
think the Ravens defense thinks, which it does at the moment,

(01:02:00):
the Chiefs are not in a position to take advantage
of it.

Speaker 1 (01:02:02):
So who cares?

Speaker 2 (01:02:04):
This plays right into the Ravens hands. So I'm taking
the Ravens to cover. Even at the three, I'm still
gonna take them to cover. I'm taking the under in
this ball game. By the way, forty eight and a half.
The Chiefs defense is legit. The Chiefs offense is not.
That adds up to me as a low scoring affair.

(01:02:27):
Give me the under in this ballgame. I do have
a prop for you, so save Flowers receptions is at
four and a half over under. I haven't projected for
five point seven heading into this game, so it's one
of my better edges of the week, or at least
as far as cover probability goes, which is at seventy
five and a half percent. He's had a seventy two

(01:02:47):
point seven catch rate so far this season. He's averaging
five receptions a game anyway, He's been running every route
and he's by far the first read on this team.
Give me Zay Flowers over four and a half receptions
in this game.

Speaker 1 (01:03:06):
All right.

Speaker 2 (01:03:06):
So now we finally get into the Sunday night game
with the Packers and the Cowboys. As you would suspect,
the Packers are definitely favorites in this matchup, seven point favorites,
to be exact, with a forty seven and a half
over under this week. I'm not touching that. I could

(01:03:28):
be so as far as the total scoring in this game,
it could go a multitude of ways, and there wasn't
any one point that the model kind of locked down on.
When you run through the simulations, when the edges from
low scoring to the highest scoring to the median scoring
get all too close together, it's a game you kind
of stay away from from over unders because on one hand,
the data was support the Dallas Cowboys being able to

(01:03:49):
put up points.

Speaker 1 (01:03:50):
On the other hand, they don't have CD LAMB.

Speaker 2 (01:03:52):
When you factor in that probability, it all just becomes
too meshed in the middle. I'm taking the Packers to
cover by seven points, though that I do feel good about, well.

Speaker 1 (01:04:03):
But but but put the Cleveland Browns. They just beat
the Packers out right, Yeah, this is the NFL. Things happen.
I don't know what to tell you.

Speaker 2 (01:04:15):
The Packers defense is still right now, statistically the best
defense in the NFL. The Dallas defense is statistically, by
a wide margin, the worst defense in the NFL. Packers
have a competent offense. If you have a competent offense
against this Dallas defense, you're gonna put up points, period.

(01:04:37):
And without Ceedee Lamb and without Cooper Bebee and without
Tyler Booker making the running game susceptible to not doing
anything in this game. I don't know how Dallas scores
often in a matchup like this, I don't see it.

Speaker 1 (01:04:57):
So I think the Packers win this one handily.

Speaker 2 (01:05:01):
But if they don't put up like thirty points themselves,
I don't know how he gets to the over under necessarily.
But I wouldn't rule out the fact that them putting
up thirty points themselves, because well, it's Dallas defense.

Speaker 1 (01:05:10):
So that's kind of why we stay away from that.

Speaker 2 (01:05:11):
But I do have the Packers covering this game at
minus seven in a matchup like this, and in a
matchup like this. When you have this topsy turvy defense
verus defense thing the best defense, it's the worst defense.
Usually that's a good breeding ground for player props. So
let's get to it. Jordan Love, not his passing yards,
but his rushing yards. I'm all over six and a half.

(01:05:34):
I haven't projected for thirteen point six rushing yards this week.
He's averaging eleven point three per game thus far on scrambles.
They're not designing him for him. But Jordan Love is
a guy who's known to take off a time or two.
And the Cowboys are allowing thirty one rushing yards to
the quarterback per game and are in the top three

(01:05:56):
and rushing yards allowed to the quarterback. Now, a lot
of that, yes, had to do with Jalen hurds in
Week one one percent. But in a game in which
Jordan Love just one or two times could easily cover
the over six and a half that just takes one run,
that lane's going to be open for him to do
that at some point, and it's something he is already

(01:06:16):
known to do at least a couple times a game.
So I really like Jordan Love over six and a
half rushing yards this week. I also like Jake Ferguson,
and I knew I had it. That's why had the
PAU was gonna have to figure it out. Jake Ferguson
fifty three and a half receiving yards. I haven't projected
for sixty two point three. He's averaging sixty one anyway,

(01:06:38):
So he's literally averaging about eight yards over the prop
in this ballgame. And while the Packers defense has been very,
very good, they have not been super awesome against the
tight ends. They've allowed two hundred and fifteen tight end
yards and a touchdown already this season. That has been
the one area where they have been susceptible. And without

(01:06:58):
Seedee Lamb, Jake Ferguson has been a target freaking monster.
Like a lot of volume is going his way. One
could argue that not George Pickens, but Jake Ferguson is
the number one target on this team with no Cdee
Lamb in the ballgame. So between the volume and the matchup,
I do like Jake Ferguson to go over fifty three
and a half receiving yards in this game. Let's talk

(01:07:19):
about this Monday Night. So now we have the Jets
and the Dolphins of Monday night football.

Speaker 3 (01:07:25):
Woo.

Speaker 2 (01:07:27):
But the good news here is that Justin Fields is
in fact going to play, and I think that goes
a long way when you're talking about another porous defense
in the Miami Dolphins. This is in Miami, but Miami's
favorite at two and a half points here, what what

(01:07:53):
Miami's favorite of a game? Look, I don't care how
bad people think the Jets are or how about they
looked on paper. They're not gonna be able to stop
the run against the Jets. Justin Fields and brace Hall
should pretty much be able to do whatever the hell
they want, and Garrett Wilson will get his opportunities to
Between that and the Dolphins offense being suspect at best,

(01:08:19):
the Jets evens has not been very good so far
this season, but we do know that they have the
talent to do. So give me the Jets to win
outright in this game against the Dolphins. I know this
is a battle of like which less impressive team is
less impressive, but that's kind of where I take the Jets.
Where the Dolphins because they still have no physicality to

(01:08:43):
them whatsoever the Jets do, and if you have any physicality,
you beat up on the Dolphins, So give me the
Jets to cover this game outright. Don't have a proper
free in this one. So the Cincinnati Bengals and the
Denver Broncos. Bronco's favorite at seven and a half points.
This is in Denver. The over under set at forty

(01:09:05):
four and a half. I'm attacking the under first and foremost.
The Denver Broncos are not interested in scoring points. Bnick stinks.
I've been saying it all the time, how to eat
it for a year? Playing out the fruition so far
for the first three weeks. Sean Payton is a conservative
play caller. Bo Nicks is not very good down the field.
They're not interested in scoring a ton of points, plain

(01:09:25):
and simple. I don't care how bad you think this
Incenti Bengals defense is on the flip side without Joe
Burrow against a good defense, the Bengals are turnover City
with Jake Browning absolutely turnover City. Give me the under
in this game. I don't see a lot of points
being scored. The prop that I want to attack the

(01:09:46):
most is Jake Browning himself so passing touchdowns, which is
is an average passing touchdown prop.

Speaker 1 (01:09:52):
It's one point five.

Speaker 2 (01:09:53):
That's like the average prop that you're going to see
for quarterbacks when it comes to touchdowns. I have only
projected one one point one to be exact, but essentially
one touchdown. So as long as he does get two touchdowns,
you win the prop. Now, technically, he's been averaging one
point five touchdowns through the last couple of games on

(01:10:14):
twenty nine and a half attempts, so even though they've
been in negative game scripts, he's not even averaging thirty
attempts a game.

Speaker 1 (01:10:25):
In the games that he's played.

Speaker 2 (01:10:28):
Going up against the Denver Broncos, who are much better
against the pass than they are the run so far
this season and probably will remain true too. The Broncos
have only allowed two passing touchdowns this season through three games.
Three games, two passing touchdowns. That's impressive. So with a

(01:10:50):
matchup and how he's looked and how he's played, yeah,
give me the under one point five passing touchdowns out
of Jake Browning this week that bring the show to
a close. Had a good time actually being solo pot.
I love Chas Flori, though I miss him Chas Flora.
Championship footballs dot Com of Sports Betting weekly. I miss him.

(01:11:13):
I don't think we have them back yet next week either,
I think it will be the week after that. I
might be getting us a guest next week for this show.
We'll see, or it may just be me. Who knows,
the most important thing is whether it's me, whether it's
somebody else. Whatever we're lining your pocket screen. Make sure
you check out my article on the Huddle We're I'll
go into detail my fifteen player props of the week.
Make sure you download the Operation Domination podcast on your

(01:11:35):
favorite podcast app, and make sure you check out our
video content on the Fantasy Football Advice Network YouTube channel
at FF advice Net. Good luck this weekend, and I'll
see you guys next week