Week 1 NFL Bets: Top Picks & Props You Can't Miss! 💰

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Operation Domination is underway, the ultimate game clubs that dominate
your with your hosts, you gotta be confident about your achilles.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
Yeah, I mean I got it.

Speaker 1 (00:21):
Be great. I'm dominated.

Speaker 3 (00:27):
Oh man.

Speaker 1 (00:28):
You know it's in season when I'm doing three episodes
a week and I absolutely love it, capping it off
with a sports betting show the line your guys pockets. Yes,
we don't just do fantasy football here on Operation Domination.

Speaker 2 (00:41):
By the way, you can download on your favorite podcast app.

Speaker 1 (00:44):
And you can also go to YouTube of the Fantasy
Football Advice Network. Go to at FF advice Net and
subscribe to all of our video content we have available
to you. As always, I'm your host, Dan Mayder. Bring
in a special guest, mister Chad already, Chazz. How are
we doing, man, it's so nice to have you back.

Speaker 3 (01:05):
Yeah. Well, you know what, I've been betting football since
CFL started, because remember we used to do our CFL
show and it's been a nice run. And actually staked me.
This is the first year that I got staked to
start betting real football, but I staked myself, so I'm
pretty excited about it.

Speaker 1 (01:23):
Well that works in more than one way. So yeah,
exactly how it sounds. Guys, we are going to be
sitting here giving you every single game what lines that
we like. I got some props that we're gonna be
talking about as well. You can actually check out my
props weekly now on the huddle. Every single week, I'll
be dropping at least ten player props that I like,
might be boosting at the fifteen in week two, we'll

(01:44):
have to see. But my futured article is already up
there on the huddle just to get you guys good
to go. So make sure you go ahead and check
that out. All right, Chas, without any further Ado, let's
dive into this thing, shall we.

Speaker 3 (01:56):
Before we further Ado? That was so well written, that article,
It was so well written. But remember when I was
in New Orleans, me you and Chris, I did my bet.
I got it in on paper. I remember taking and
Uber calls me like thirty dollars. I was in Metaory.
It took me like thirty dollars to get to the
Caesars in downtown New Orleans, who were by the French

(02:18):
corner there. But the bottom line is you got to
remember that you're gonna be wrong on some of them.
Oh but you're gonna be right on some of them.
And that's what I was talking about. You know, if
you're getting a paper print out and you're gonna bet
a ten dollars ticket, bet two five dollar tickets. If
you're gonna bet a twenty dollars ticket the ticket, bet

(02:39):
two ten dollars tickets. What happens is this, there's somebody
out there that'll buy that ticket off of you. And
I've had I had three in a row. I had
the Derby, I had a football, and they tak a basketball.
It was Yukon. I forget the name of the horse.
But so what happened is you get it and it's
one hundred to one, it's seventy five to one, and

(03:00):
all of a sudden, you start getting closer to where
you're right, and your three quarters of the way through
the season, and you can sell that ticket for more
than both tickets combined. So if you win, yeah, you know,
you give half it away. But if you take a
bad loss, you ended up having a positive ROI on

(03:21):
a future bet that lost. That is an amazing step.

Speaker 1 (03:25):
And that's what you can do with futures. That's the
whole idea of futures. That's something you can do because
it's a long term betting situation. But Chaz, we got
to dive into it, man, because we've got a lot
to get to today. So the Giants and the Commanders
are the first one that I want to talk to
you about. The line right now is six point favorites
for the Commanders who are at home forty five and
a half over under. Now I know with you and

(03:48):
if you guys don't know, it's the new season, so
we have new listeners.

Speaker 2 (03:51):
Chazz will already been.

Speaker 1 (03:52):
He's gonna give you every single line from every kind
of angle meeting. We're gonna be talking about quarters and
halves and everything else in between.

Speaker 2 (03:57):
So Chas, what are you looking at in that?

Speaker 3 (04:01):
All? Right? So here's how I try to remember when
you're doing the football all year. So I did the
Spring League, but that was just a waste of my time,
and actually I will not do it again. I gave it.
I gave them everything I had. It's just terrible. MAC action.
Tuesday Wednesdays is much better than spring football. Plus they're

(04:22):
not doing it right. They need to make that Spring
football league a minor leaguer the NFL so they can
then go straight to camps afterwards, you know. But they
didn't do that. CFL, Oh my god, it is so exciting.
You know that fields one hundred and ten yards. We
had a guy that we were given four. The other

(04:43):
team scored, so we're gonna lose. They're going for two
to tie it. The guy took back the two point
conversion try one hundred and ten yards, which is the
length of the field, and we got to push. It
was like it was crazy. But they have all these
different rules that are so so much better. I mean,
they had things like challenging. You can challenge anything, so

(05:04):
your guy who's obviously held right, they don't call it.
The whole stadium is booing and you got to move
on next play. But not in the CFL. So so
I kind of took all those things that I've learned
from Ben football all year, and then I applied it
to college, which is the rules in college mean that
the teams are almost different this year, but with the
NFL you have at least some stability, A much bigger

(05:28):
percentage of your NFL players are the same players, the
coaches are the same, that kind of thing. So what
I did is I just looked at everything. I looked
at the data from last year. You know what they
get in rushing yards, defense, that kind of stuff. I
looked at my data, which is the you know, the
second half Chazz data, which it gives me all the
different bets. So I got the quarter line. So I mean, man,

(05:49):
I got ten years of what the Baltimore Ravens have
done in the first quarter. And so that's just valuable data,
even though you know, really the last year and a
half is all that's relevant. And so what I've got
in front of me is I got plays for every
game and some I just said, you're out of your
mind if you think I'm betting that game. But when
I'm when I say that and I'm watching, like, look

(06:10):
at last was what the Thursday night, the opening game,
you have the over, you go to bed because there's
a delay and you got to work the next day.
You can't lose that game. You need six points in
the second half. You're golden. You're golden. You're casting that ticket,
and you woke up this morning and you're kicking the dog.
You're pissed at your wife, you're bad at work, you're

(06:30):
bad at your job because you've got three points in
the entire second half. So I might say pass. You know,
though I might say pass on some of these games,
doesn't mean I might be in it later on.

Speaker 2 (06:43):
You know, No, I hear you.

Speaker 1 (06:45):
So is that your long win a way of saying
that this is a game that you're passing on?

Speaker 3 (06:50):
Uh? No, you know what. I was just stall Actually
in this game, I will have a play in the
second half. I have the over. So you say, what
do you mean you don't know what's happening in It's
the second half. Hello, that's my.

Speaker 1 (07:01):
Name second half Chazz for a reason. So Chazz in
that game. I actually have a player prop for you
coming out in one of the articles too.

Speaker 2 (07:09):
Darius Slayton twenty six and a half yards.

Speaker 1 (07:13):
That's one catch for a guy like Darius Slayton, especially
when you're talking about Russell Wilson who likes to throw
the ball down deep.

Speaker 2 (07:20):
Darius Layton got a new contract here.

Speaker 1 (07:22):
In the offseason. He's going to be the opposite starting
receiver from Malik Neighbors. It's not gonna be the one
Delle Robinson show. Remember this is in Daniel Jones at
the quarterback position. This is Russell Wilson, who actually does
like to throw the ball.

Speaker 2 (07:35):
To the perimeter.

Speaker 1 (07:36):
One catch twenty six and a half yards for Slayton
against the secondary that ranks in the bottom third of
the NFL. Give me that all day, every day. So
over Darius Slayton at twenty six and a half. That's
the player prop I have for you in that Commanders
in Giants game.

Speaker 3 (07:50):
Well, when both of us got the word over coming
out of her mouth, I'm happy like that.

Speaker 1 (07:55):
I'll take it, all right. So next up we got
the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns battle of Ohio.
With the Bengals sitting at minus five and a half
with an over under a forty eight and a half
for the ball game, what's your play in this matchup?

Speaker 3 (08:11):
So I gotta ask you a question because I'm trying
to get comfortable. As I mentioned, this is the this
is the beauty of live is that that fan was
freaking me out. I have the fan on my ceilings,
so let me let me reposition myself because I got
my phone plugged into my computer. All right. So yeah,
so we're going to get back to uh to what
game was cincidata? You know what I And one of

(08:32):
the things I look at is head to head. I
have found that's a very valuable, uh data point for anything,
I don't care what sport you're playing, and the Bengals
of all of them. So I got the Bengals, but
then I got a sidebar that says the Bengals half one.
And what that means is that's a play that I'm
going to use in more parlance. Remember my my break

(08:57):
my breakout season was a couple of years ago when
I realized that you can't be afraid to take a
team that's given five and a half and bet on
minus two forty if you're an Eagles. Better you learned
that last night, okay, because that lying was was you know,
minus at one point it was minus two twenty when
they were tied, and they didn't cover second half or

(09:18):
of the game, and and so what that usually means
is I'll throw that in some parlays, because there was
quarter one parlays, the half one parlays. They're one offs.
You know, once that happens, if you don't have the
rest of the game, you don't really care what happens
they You know, Moe used to make fun of me
because I would switch to the if I had a

(09:39):
good weekend and I went in on Sunday because remember,
by Sunday, I got twenty two hours of football in me.
And if I cash the first half, I got no promise.
Stick in a movie and it might go to movies.
To sound the music, the Nazis lose, the good guys
get away. I mean, how could you not like to
sound the music.

Speaker 1 (09:56):
It's a total it's a total reset Chats, there's no
there's no doubt about that. Okay. So just to give
you guys some idea, you said the Bengals own them.
Just to give you guys what that means. It's they're
four and one against the spread of the last five
games there against the Browns head to head right now.
So the Bengals are coming in this thing five and
a half. They should be the favorite team. The Bengals
are looking like a team are ready to get back

(10:16):
into the postseason. The Browns, we went through this whole fiasco.
Who's gonna be the quarterback? We landed on Joe Flacco
at the end of the day. And even more so,
if you want to look past the head to head,
I mean, the Browns, even at home in their last
nine are one and eight against the spreader.

Speaker 2 (10:32):
Oh good golly, think about what you said.

Speaker 3 (10:36):
The Browns are struggling with quarterback when I was in
high school. Look at this here. When I was in
high school, they were saying that. But yeah, you know what,
Remember how how tough the year the quarterback for Cincinnati had, right,
I mean, he was playing well, and they just it
was they were giving up what we go to thirty

(10:57):
points a game or something at one point. I mean
I've room for Burrow.

Speaker 1 (11:02):
Yeah, I'm room for him too, So I will take
the Bengals minus to five and a half. I also
have a prop for you in that one or involving
Joe Burrow. Actually, so with Joe Burrow right now, he
is projected or no, his over under, I should say,
is at thirty six and a half past attempts. I
have him projected for forty coming up in this game
with a seventy six percent hit rate for that.

Speaker 2 (11:25):
The low end would have him at thirty five and
a half.

Speaker 1 (11:27):
So just one under. What the over under is, it's
usually a pretty good indication that he's gonna go ahead
and hit the over.

Speaker 2 (11:33):
In that one.

Speaker 1 (11:33):
Remember, the Browns do have a decent defense and as
a result to that, it might be kind of tough
for Chase Brown to really get going on the ground.
And we know that the Bengals, if they have to,
they're gonna win games. It's gonna because that passing offense.
I think Burrow's gonna throw the ball more than thirty
six times in this matchup. Now let's dive into it.

(11:54):
We go from one game that could be high scoring
that had the forty and a half over under to
a game it's third eight and a half over under
with the Steelers and the New York Jets. This one
of the games that you're like, I'm not betting or no,
you got something in this one.

Speaker 3 (12:09):
Yeah, there's a big As a matter of fact, I
put it two lines when I crossed through this one,
not just one. I went back and did it again
just to make sure. You know what. Pittsburgh has some
dysfunction and the Jets are there. Jets, you know, I
just but again, if I see something, what happens is
after the first quarter, first half. You know, there's only

(12:31):
college there's so many games, but in the pros there's
only five afternoon games. There's only eight morning games. You
got a Thursday Friday. This week you get Monday. So
what I do is I look and see what's happened,
and then I try to find a trend that I'm seeing,
and it might be, hey, look at this, when Pittsburgh
scores this amount of points in the first half, they
do this in the second half, or vice versa with

(12:53):
the Jets, and then I hop on it live. But
for right now, I want nothing to do with that game.

Speaker 1 (13:00):
Just to give you an idea, is what the trends are,
at least heading into this matchup. If you're looking for
something to bet on the Steelers going into this game,
they've hit the under ten times and they were eleven
and seven against the spread last year. The Jets, on
the other hand, were six and eleven and the over
was actually profitable for them.

Speaker 2 (13:18):
They were ten and six, believe it or not.

Speaker 1 (13:20):
Most of that had to do with the back second
half with Aaron Rodgers, when they were throwing the ball
a ton there and their defense wasn't stopping anybody. Thirty
eight and a half is low over under the bet
and under, but I'm not gonna bet the over. But
I do think the Steelers win this game by three points.

Speaker 2 (13:36):
Right now, I here's what I would do.

Speaker 1 (13:38):
If you're listening to this on Saturday, or you're listening
to this Sunday morning.

Speaker 2 (13:44):
We record this on Friday night, do yourself a favor.

Speaker 1 (13:46):
Check it out, because at one point this was a
two and a half line in favor of the Steelers
and they're on the road.

Speaker 2 (13:52):
Maybe it shifts back to that two and a half line.

Speaker 1 (13:55):
If it does, I'm hopping all over it for the
Steelers to cover at two and a half. At three,
it does get a little bit more dicey, but I
still lean towards the Steelers if you're looking to make
a bet at all on that one, And to Chas's point,
maybe sometimes you're just not but a game. I do
think we're gonna have some action on as the Arizona
Cardinals and the New Orleans Saints. The Saints looking prime
to be the number one picking team in the draft

(14:17):
next year because it just looks awful right now with
the surprise retirement of Derek Carr. The Cardinals coming into
this matchup, there are six and a half favorites.

Speaker 2 (14:24):
It's in New Orleans.

Speaker 1 (14:25):
It's a forty three and a half over under Chaz,
What are you looking at here.

Speaker 3 (14:31):
That is the only game that I am pre betting
the first quarter. I don't have any other first quarter
pre bets. In this week's NFL Action, I am on
the under quarter one Arizona at New Orleans.

Speaker 1 (14:43):
All right, well I like that. Well I got well,
I got a player prop for you in that matchup.
So I got Kyler Murray. He's going for two hundred
and twenty four and a half passing yards. I have
the over on that. It should be a positive game
script against New Orleans. Yes, one hundred percent. But this
is a really bad defense and their number one pass rushler,
Chase Young's not gonna play. He's out already, so there's

(15:05):
nobody to rush the passer. There should be a balance attack.
Whenever there's a balance attack, Coyler Murray tends to be
more efficient with his throws.

Speaker 2 (15:11):
I think he does get over to two hundred and
twenty four.

Speaker 1 (15:14):
And a half passing yard mark and Chaz, I'll give
you some of the the trends here for that matchup.
I just had it in front of me and see
if anything jumps out to you.

Speaker 2 (15:25):
So Arizona last year there were eleven x.

Speaker 1 (15:27):
Six against the spread, uh and the Saints slash year.

Speaker 2 (15:32):
Were actually pretty decent in their own right.

Speaker 1 (15:36):
As compared to Saints had seven wins against the spread
last season, so a little bit under the One thing
that was interesting to me, and this goes back years
and years and years. The Cardinals are zero and five
against the spread in their last five visits to New Orleans.
But that's always different from year to year.

Speaker 3 (15:56):
Well, you know, if you look at two twenty four
and right, nobody's bragging. Not one NFL quarterback is going
to be puffing up his chest at the press conference
if he had two hundred and thirty yards fasten. You know,
they're always looking at that as a bad day. So that, right,
that's a very reasonable over.

Speaker 1 (16:14):
And that's the bet we can kind of plug in
here a little bit, all right, So as we're looking
for first quarter for Arizona Kyler Murray over twenty four
and a half, that's what we like there, Bucks and Falcons.
I'm looking forward to this games. I think this game potentially,
potentially could be one of the high scoring games of
the weekend. So we have the Bucks right now are
favored on the road at minus one and a half.

Speaker 2 (16:33):
So this is as close to a pick them.

Speaker 1 (16:35):
As we're looking at here on the week forty seven
and a half over under Chazz, I know you must
have something in this game.

Speaker 3 (16:44):
Actually two plays in this game. I got the over
for the game. Now, when I say over, if I
like the over and it's in that left column my statute,
that means I'm betting it for the first quarter and
I'm betting for the first half. I'm betting it for
the game, and I probably will hop on a live
action like last Night with Philly was for Thursday Night

(17:04):
would Philly was a find example of what happened. As
soon as Dallas scored, I bet Philly again. I got
him in minus four, so I got my money back,
but I got him. I had him a plus one
and a half for the first half and a money
life for the first half, and they won both of
those plays. So I ended up going two and one
in my live play two oh on one, and my
live plays on a team that didn't cover here in

(17:26):
the second half, I have Tampa Bay. So the reason
I like Tampa Bay in the second half is because
the data that I go have says that between these
two teams, Tampa Bay is better in the second half.
Whatever those numbers are, you know, then I might end
up doing a Tampa Bay and over a second half
parlay as well.

Speaker 1 (17:46):
Okay, I like that too.

Speaker 2 (17:48):
We love the overs here as what we're all about.

Speaker 1 (17:51):
And Tampa Bay actually for the games have been twelve
of the last seventeen games were over. Of course, this
was last season. Now I do caution it a little bit.
Don't get too crazy with total line overs in week one.
Over the past like three years now, betting under more
times not in week one has been the more prudent
thing to do. As much as we get all excited

(18:11):
about football one point, right, what we saw that with college. Yeah,
I had to hit the under by the way on
that Texas Ohio thank game because I I just had
a feeling that was that.

Speaker 3 (18:22):
Was the easiest play of the year, and I'd sight right,
I'm a god it never threatened.

Speaker 1 (18:26):
I was like, I was like, I don't think these
offenses are going to hit the ground running, especially when
you have these two high caliber teams like them. But
I do have yes, I do. I do have a
prop here for you guys to go ahead and play
in this game. So I'm focusing on on passing attempts
this week, bigger Mayfield three two and a half passing attempts.
Not looking for a lot out of that one to

(18:48):
hit the over on it. The Falcons last year allowed
the tenth most pass attempts to the quarterback.

Speaker 2 (18:53):
My projection for him is thirty eight.

Speaker 1 (18:55):
Especially if this is going to be a high scoring game,
We're gonna see some volume in that past game to boot.
So I actually really like Baker Mayfield over the thirty
two and a half passing attempt mark for your guys
player props. Okay, so now we's moving right along here.
I love it. We got the Dolphins and the Colts,
and this is the game we need to bet on
because otherwise I don't know what we're gonna see in

(19:17):
this one. And we got to all the storylines in
the world. Right is Mike McDaniel's going to hold on
to his job? What are we gonna see the Dolphins,
Tyreek Hill, all the drama around this high flying We
know it's skill player wise, Dolphins offensive tag, but so
far Mike be Daniel right now, he's actually favored to
be the coach who gets fired first. So it's kind

(19:39):
of interesting, right now, what happens in Miami. As far
as this game is concerned, the Dolphins are coming in
as underdogs. Colts are minus one and a half at
home in Indianapolis with forty seven and a half over under.
I know the Dolphins defens isn't good, but I'm kind
of surprised it's that high.

Speaker 3 (19:57):
Yeah, the only player I have on this game is
second Half. I've got Miami, and again, I was just
looking at the trends from last year. I do remember
I almost looked at this as a flip flop game.
So my company, Second Half Chazz Productions, the logo we
use is the one of the very first games I
gave out where I said to bet the Chargers in

(20:17):
the first half and then doubled down and bet it
all on Broncos in the second half, and both were
winning shutout wins. It was like seventeen nothing Chargers at
halftime and then twenty seven nothing Broncos and the final
was like twenty seven to seventeen. Don't call me that.
You can go check out my company's website and see
the length of the logo. But I just there was

(20:41):
something that just wouldn't let me pull the trigger on
the Colts first half. But I want to let it.
It's out there. So if you do like the Colts,
better them in the first half too. I mean, that
was the thing Thursday night. I was laughing. I was tall,
my son. If you don't bet who you like all
the time, then you lost on that over when I
hit the first quarter. If I'm better over I hit
the first half, I go to bed, I lose. But

(21:02):
I'm two and one.

Speaker 1 (21:03):
Two and one is two and one percent.

Speaker 2 (21:09):
And what's funny about you saying this is the football game?

Speaker 1 (21:12):
The Colts are three and four as one half point
favorites and the Dolphins are three and five as one
and a half point underdogs. You know, and this again
stepping from last year, different teams. I get that, but
I just found that kind of funny that neither of
these teams are coming in with a very good record
with the lines that they are actually kind of looking
at at the moment. So we'll see exactly what happens

(21:35):
with a lot of questions on both sides, how's they
know Joe's gonna play? How's the Dolphins going to play?
And it kind of makes things murky sometimes.

Speaker 3 (21:41):
The bet at least two props on that game.

Speaker 1 (21:46):
I don't have a prop on that game. Again, it
kind of goes back to the murkiness of it. There's
a lot of players in Flux that von Aschan was
banged up. He's gonna play this week, but we didn't
know for sure until this exact week, honestly. And then
Tyreek Hill, what's he going to be? J Waddle a
lot of things over flocks as far as fantasy goes,
as far as props go. So this was one game
that I did kind of find myself staying away from.

(22:08):
But the next matchup that we have might have some
more interesting bets for you. So the Raiders take it
on the Patriots in New England. The Patriots are favored
at three points flat. I always hate it when it's
that flat three forty three and a half over under.
Heading into this game, Chaz, what do you think about
the Raiders and the Patriots? The Patriot team that people

(22:28):
seem to think are on the uprise now.

Speaker 3 (22:31):
Well, in their defense, they have nowhere to go but
up because they they they slid from dominant to terrible.
I mean they were terrible. So you know, this game,
I got crossed out nothing on it. But you know,
you know that this is the Tom Brady.

Speaker 1 (22:49):
Bowl, right, yeah technically, so you know, Brady partial owner.
I do have a prop for you in this game,
and I got Drake May. He's only sitting at two
hundred and fifteen and a half passing yard, So I
have the over on that the Raiders were the seventh
worst team and EPA allowed versus the pass last year.
I do have n't projected for about two forty eight.
Drake Mays showed me he's a good quarterback last season,

(23:11):
like he can put up numbers and he was doing
it with no weapons. Now, look, I don't know how
great Stefon Diggs is going to be as a thirty
two year old coming off of an ac yel, but
all the reports have been that he's looked fantastic in
training camp.

Speaker 2 (23:22):
I'm going to believe that.

Speaker 1 (23:24):
And if he has a go to weapon in May
that is I'm gonna think against the Raiders who have
a journeyman secondary at the very least to this call,
I think as being nice about it, I think he
goes over too hundred and fifteen and a half passing yards.

Speaker 3 (23:38):
Yeah, you know what, They're going to go as far
as his arm goes right, that's really what their season.
And again that's a number. Think about that. If you
you you you have two hundred and eighteen yards, you're
cashing that ticket. But the quarterback isn't proud of that day.

Speaker 2 (23:52):
No, but I can still cash it all all all
the exactly.

Speaker 1 (23:58):
All right, let's move on here, Let's get a game here,
maybe Chaz has how about the Panthers and the Jaguars,
Jaguars at home sitting at minus three and a half
of the forty six and a half over under.

Speaker 2 (24:08):
Anything sticking out to you in this matchup?

Speaker 3 (24:11):
Yeah, there's only three games where I like a team.
I'm gonna have like twenty sonn bets and there's only
three of them that are sure. That's the way of betting.
I tell you guys. When I grew up, that was it.
You get bet Jacksonville, you bet Carolining, you bet the
under the over. That was it. There were four plays
and you had to get him in before the game started.
I got Jacksonville here.

Speaker 2 (24:32):
I got Jacksonville too.

Speaker 1 (24:33):
The Panthers are two and fifteen in the last seventeen
road games, like it just has not been good for them.

Speaker 2 (24:38):
When they're on the road, and it doesn't matter that
it's Jacksonville. So I'm with you.

Speaker 1 (24:43):
And Plus, I talked about this a little bit on
the show that I've had the last couple of weeks,
and too much to grim from Chase Thorton, one of
my co hosts. We do the show on Wednesday with
and and he's always arguing about Brayceong. I'm like, look,
Braysong had five games where he looked like an actual
competent NFL quarterback. I gotta see it for a more

(25:04):
sample size than that before I just totally buy into
the Suddenly this guy has flipped the script on everybody.

Speaker 2 (25:09):
So I'm looking at Jacksonville pretty strong here.

Speaker 1 (25:12):
Plus to get Liam Cullen, who is the office coordinator
of the Tampa Bay Bucks last season.

Speaker 3 (25:17):
Yeah, there might play, but I do have a.

Speaker 1 (25:20):
Part of parla, not parlay, but a player prop for
you in that matchup. So Travis etn and I know
there's been a lot of flux about the running back position.
You know, Tank Bigsby, Travis had a terrible year last year.
Tank Bigsby looked good but still couldn't quite take over
fully on the role. How is this gonna look and
for me, I'm looking at like, look, we saw Travis

(25:42):
etn got most of the first team reps throughout training camp. Yes,
they kind of split a little bit during preseason. But
Liam Cohne, we know can scheme up a running game.

Speaker 2 (25:50):
I like him.

Speaker 1 (25:51):
Over forty and a half rushing yards. Carolina was the
worst rush defense in twenty twenty four. And while they
add I did some pieces to that defense, that starting
defensive line is exactly the same as it was a
season ago. So I'm going to take the shot that
they're going to have more success running the football with Travess.

Speaker 2 (26:09):
He had over forty and a half rushing yards.

Speaker 3 (26:12):
Do you happen to know what his carries is? Total
his carries?

Speaker 1 (26:17):
I don't know what the total his carries is right
in front of me. Actually I could probably.

Speaker 3 (26:21):
But I mean because that's the kind of thing. You know,
you look at that and you say, you know what this is?
You know what is it going to take for him
to say ten and forty right? One two yard scamper
and in your golden.

Speaker 2 (26:34):
Yeah, So the rush attempts are set at ten and.

Speaker 1 (26:37):
A half for Traves, Yeah, right there you go. Yeah,
So we're sitting pretty for that one. Okay, so moving
on here, what we gotten next? Hold on, let me
get this backed up, all right? So, uh, Titans and Broncos.

Speaker 2 (26:56):
Okay, there we go.

Speaker 1 (26:56):
Titans in Broncos. Broncos are favored in Denver minus eight
and a half forty two and a half over under.
So we're not expecting a ton of scoring, but we
are expecting one.

Speaker 2 (27:06):
Team to kind of dominate. Do you see it that way, Jazz?

Speaker 3 (27:10):
Well, yeah, it's the only play of the weekend where
I have Denver written down three times. I've got Denver,
I got half two Denver, I got team total over Denver.

Speaker 2 (27:21):
All right, well, all right, so you're all on Denver.

Speaker 1 (27:23):
I like it. I mean, look at the Tennessee Titans,
like a cam Ward right, their number one pick, the
new quarterback here, gonna kind of excited to see what
exactly he can be. But this is a Denver team
that not only was one of the top defenses last year,
but added Drake green Law, added to Hufanga, like, they
got even better on defense. This could be the number
one defense in the NFL that we're watching here against

(27:45):
a rookie quarterback. So it's a tall task for cam Ward.
I'm with you on that. It feels like the lines
are heading Denver's way, and it should probably be the
way you want to go. Plus, guess what. The Broncos
are undefeated or went undefeated last year against the spread
when they were eight and a half point favorites a
season ago. So this is a team that usually delivers
even on a bigger spread. I do have a player

(28:07):
prop for you guys there as well, So RJ. Harvey,
the rookie running back. He's gonna be splitting time with JK.

Speaker 2 (28:14):
Dobbins.

Speaker 1 (28:14):
Right, Well, guess what I got him over thirty four
and a half rushing yards. It's gonna be a positive
game script. We all expect Denver to dominate. He will
be in a fifty to fifty split worst case scenario
with JK Dobbins.

Speaker 2 (28:26):
So give me RJ. Harvey over the thirty four and.

Speaker 1 (28:28):
A half rushing Love it all right, Now we get
to my team Sansco Seattle. Here we go in Seattle.
Forty nine ers favored on the road at minus one
and a half, the over underset at forty three and
a half. Chas you have to talk before I do.

Speaker 3 (28:48):
Yeah, I got nothing, you know what. I just both
these teams. You know, this is like should be the
division championship game, right, This is a two teams should
be the best frout teams in that division.

Speaker 2 (29:02):
I mean the Rams.

Speaker 3 (29:04):
Yeah, I'm not a big Rams guy. I'm watching these
twos this week.

Speaker 1 (29:09):
Okay, So if you're watching those two here, here's what
I got. Here's what I got for you guys. So
we know the forty niners had a rough time last year.
But and Seattle, though as one and a half point underdogs,
were four or five and one a season ago. The
forty nine ers, even in a bad season, were four
and one against the spread in those games where they

(29:29):
were favored by minus one and a half. So so
basically four of your six wins essentially last year when
they were close favorites. Is what that boils down to.
Brock Purdy himself in his career is five and one
versus Seattle. Has not lost to Seattle in Seattle at
any point in his career thus far. So I do

(29:50):
think the Fortynitars come out on top. Now here, here's
the deal. And doctor Bryan Scott and I talked about
this yesterday when we had the injury show. Christian McCaffrey
did not pre today. Calf injury popped up on Thursday. However,
McCaffrey made it sound like today he was. First of all,
there's videotape of him warming up in pre warm ups.

(30:10):
There wasn't a hint of a limp. He looked completely
spraad and everything like that. We know that with Christian McCaffrey,
and he guy actually kind of said as much, when
you have the injury history he does, you're gonna be
extra cautious when you feel any kind of soreness or
anything like that, from what he told reporters himself.

Speaker 2 (30:24):
And I get it. It's a player.

Speaker 1 (30:25):
You got to take it with a grain of salt
that he feels like, he feels fine. He has absolutely
every expectation in the world that he's going to suit
up on Sunday. Now, even if he didn't play, because
they made the move for Brian Robinson, I think they
would still have a strong run game heading into this matchup,
but it definitely helps McCaffrey plays. I think the forty
nine ers cover at one and a half in this game.

(30:46):
But frank but funny enough, as much as I love
this team, will be watching his game so closely. I
don't have a great prop for you guys in this one.

Speaker 3 (30:54):
Yeah, you know what you have to accept sometimes DANDT
man what happens.

Speaker 2 (31:03):
We have to except the same times as week one.
We're still working out the kinks. So while you do.

Speaker 1 (31:10):
That, Jazz, I'm going to try to get to the
next line here and we'll hopefully building a chatz for
already back online soon. Uh but right now, so after
the forty nine Seahawks game, we are in the four
o'clock matchups with that, right, so we got the Detroit Lions,
We've got the Green Bay Packers. Packers at home favored
at minus two and a half of forty six and

(31:30):
a half over under big time. Like, I get that
we're at home the Packers. Everyone's really betting horror on
the Packers, like they're going to be this great super
Bowl contending team this year. I still kind of have
my doubts as far as that goes to be a
little bit shocked that good just because you got Micah Parsons.
I don't think that automatically makes the Super Bowl content
playoff team for sure.

Speaker 2 (31:50):
But Detroit is still the reigning champ. There. Detroit is
still a really good ball club.

Speaker 3 (31:54):
Now.

Speaker 1 (31:54):
I do think, like many people do, that when you
lose two top league coordinators, they're regression tends to happen.
But I actually don't think they had a downgrade. And
while I wait for to get the chats back here,
I'll go full screen. I don't think there was a
downgrade at defense Aaron Glen. I think the Jets are
gonna find out real fast. Aaron Glenn's not that great
of a defensive coiner. At what point in what year

(32:16):
was the Detroit Lions defense all that great? They were
either they were a leaky sieve against the run his
first couple of years, and then that transferred to them
giving up pass plays left and right and one one
of the worst secondaries leading up to last year. Like,
I don't think this moved like the Jets of Aaron

(32:37):
Glenn was a good thing. And I think even though yes,
losing Ben Johnson on the offensive side of the ball
for the Detroit Lions that might regress, that might be
a downgrade. You guys have caught me on my podcast
in Operation Domination of not being a big Johnny Morton fan.
I haven't been a big Johnny Morton fan for this reason.
Johnny Morton's been around the NFL for a really, really

(33:00):
long time and the only time he ever got an
offensive coordinator job was when it was back in twenty
seventeen with the newer Jets. Funny enough, and because they
didn't have any better options. Now, I'm not gonna hold
the production of what happened with the Jets necessarily against them,
because again, it was the Jets, and it was a
bad year. They didn't have a lot of talent. But

(33:22):
at the same time, for a guys who been around
the NFL for that long and only again a play
calling job once.

Speaker 2 (33:29):
In his career, and it was for a tinea, it
didn't have another option truly to go to.

Speaker 1 (33:33):
I think that says a lot about the guy as
a play caller and what his capability is actually going
to be. Are they going to have an identity because
of Detroit and Dan Campbell? One hundred percent, Absolutely they are.
But is it going to be as efficient as effective
as it was under Ben Johnson. No, I think it'd
be crazy for anybody to think so. But I do
think I do think that the defense could have improved,

(33:57):
and I think we might have lost Chas Fardy for
the rest of the show. So I am going to
carry us out here because he just texted me and
said his where. He twittered me and said his phone
said they'd be ware. If he texted me and his
phone was dead, I'd be I'd be like, wait a minute,
you lining to me there. So I actually think it's
gonna be a little bit of a downgrade for Detroit
from that sense. Now, having said that, get getting back

(34:18):
into this matchup. This game in particular with the Green
Bay Packers coming up, it's a big indication game of
how this is gonna look, how this is gonna go
for Detroit lines on the coordinator side, but also for
the Green Bay Packers. Jordan Love trying to make his
comeback coming off a year where he was injured. Coming
off a year was disappointing. The year after he gets

(34:38):
this big, you know, big contract he signed and he's
got something he's got to prove. But I do have
him proving something at least in this game. I have
him hitting the over on the pass at steps. It's
only thirty and a half again, this game right now
is sitting at a forty six and a half over under.
It's not ungodly high, but it's a strong position. It

(35:00):
is a strong scoring game. Okay, Jordan Love is going
to get thirty one at least past attempts heading into
this matchup. Now, Detroit last year, as much as I
just said, I think that Detroit might have improved defensively,
they still gave up the fourth most past attempts to
the quarterback position a season ago. And I'm expecting a
higher scoring type of ballgame that should go to Jordan

(35:24):
Love hitting the over in this one. So that's what
we're gonna look at for this. I'm staying away from
the overall line. I think this game can go either way.
I know Detroit or I should say green Bay has
been fantastic at home.

Speaker 2 (35:38):
In fact, they've won ten of their last fourteen at home.

Speaker 1 (35:42):
Straight up. We'll see, we'll see. This is gonna be
an exciting game. I'd rather stick with the prop with
Jordan Love.

Speaker 2 (35:50):
Okay.

Speaker 1 (35:50):
So let's talk about the Houston Sexons and the Los
Angeles Rams. So in this matchup, the Rams coming in
at home by three points over under a forty three
and a half. That's interesting to me because the Texans
the Rams. When you think Texans and Rams. What do
you think of You think of CJ. Stroud and you

(36:12):
think of Matt Stafford. Those are two things you think of.
So it's interesting to me that we're coming into this
one with a forty three and a half over under,
which tells me we're gonna see a little bit more
defense than we are offense. And it's another game where
I don't know if we have a clear bet. The
Los Angeles Rams, they're two and two against the spread

(36:32):
when they're favored by three points. The Houston Texans they're
two and two against the spread when they're underdogs by
three points. I mean, it's it's kind of crazy to
think about. Now, the Rams should be favored by three
points because they're at home. Matthew Stafford is healthy. It's
going to be demark Demico Ryans's defense versus Sean mcvay's offense,

(36:53):
healthy and ready to go. It's gonna be an interesting battle.
But Stafford, Remember Stafford didn't really start practicing until the
last week or so of training camp. Now this is
Matt Stafford. Does he need training camp to be on
all sellers? No, But he does have a new teammate
in Devonte Adams, and as great as Stafford is and
as great as Devonte Adams is, and as much as
both of them, potentially he could wind up in the

(37:14):
Hall of Fame.

Speaker 2 (37:16):
It does take time to build chemistry. Will you have
it with Puca Nicole? Yeah, he will.

Speaker 1 (37:22):
But I have a lot of questions about that Rams
offensive line. So what are they going to be? Are
the Rams offense going to be efficient? Are they gonna
keep Stafford upright? This is gonna be a big test
because the whole thing about Matthew Stafford, of course, was
the back right he hit the epidural. Well, now, if

(37:42):
you have one of the best pass rushers in the
NFL with Will, with Will Anderson and Neil Hunter, and
that Ryan's defense going up a questionable talent offensive line level,
where a quarterback who just got back from a back issue,
this could be a big team for the Rams season
if things don't go correctly. So we'll have to see
exactly what winds up happening here. But as far as

(38:02):
bets go, I don't have a prop for you in
this game, and it's a game I'm kind of staying
away from. Look when part of betting and chas Floorid
would as the attempts to try to get back in
here would tell you all the time. When there's not value,
there's not value. I wrote about that in my article
in the Huddle. Everything's about timing and value when it
comes to betting, whether that's futures are betting now, there's

(38:23):
not value, there's not value Sunday night. I have value someday,
and I have great value, maybe not in the team game.
So the Buffalo Bills Baltimore Ravens, the Bills are underdogs
at home. So I want to bet anything as far
as that matchup goes, it's gonna be the Bills on
the money line, because I think it's disrespectful for a
team that's as good as the Buffalo Bills to be

(38:44):
underdogs at home when the Bills just won this game
last year, Like literally just won this game last year.
So first of all, at home, they've won ten straight,
ten straight games with the Buffalo Bills at home. That's
the first all great teams, they went home all the time, right,
the Bills have done that, and yet they're underdogs in

(39:05):
this matchup. So if I'm going to bet anything, it's
going to be the money line on the Buffalo Bills.
As far as that goes, I think maybe we got
Chas Fulardi back in the building. Let's let's try to
see you and let's find out Chads.

Speaker 2 (39:17):
Are you with us?

Speaker 3 (39:20):
Yeah? You know what, technology was tough today, but I
hope we can finish up here.

Speaker 1 (39:27):
We can't, so we're I'm on a Sunday night game,
and I was just saying, as far as the game itself,
in a traditional sense, if I was going to bet anything,
it'd be the Buffalo Bills on the money line because
they've been ten to zero at home against the spread
and it's crazy that they're underdogs in this matchup.

Speaker 3 (39:47):
Yeah, Baltimore. I mean, remember I'm dealing with a Baltimore
fan here, Okay. And I made a comment to her
because I bought her for for her birthday the summer
birthdays in July. But are a massage certificate, so you know,
tip and everything. You just show up, give it to them.

(40:07):
You don't have to deal with anything, get a massage.
But I went to wear your Tucker jersey, I told her,
and she got really mad at me. But so watching
that well, watching that game is always hard on my house.
And I literally when I got to those that game
and the Monday night game. I said, you know what,

(40:29):
let me see where I'm at. Let's see how good
I was. Because if it's like with with Ray. You
know how many times I've talked to you about horse racing,
it's the same thing on Derby Day. You know, I
bet Friday on Breaders' Company. I bet Friday. I'm trying
to get a field for what I'm reading in the

(40:50):
data is it? Is it right? And what happens is
sometimes it isn't. So you don't want to put all
your eggs in one basket and then realize that you
know all the plays you had were wrung. Maybe you
need to tilt and go to the opposite direction. But
Buffalo's at home. They're at home.

Speaker 1 (41:09):
No, I'm with you. I do have two player props
for you guys in this game, though, that I feel
really strong about. So Josh Allen thirty and a half
past attempts facing a Baltimore team that allowed the third
most pass attempts to the quarterback position a season ago.
So I am all over Josh Allen on the over
at thirty and a half past attempts. But I also
have James cooking. This one over fifty five and a

(41:31):
half rushing yards, and this one I think is gonna
make people a little bit squeamish. It's a little bit
tighter as far as the edge goes in my model,
but I still haven't projected for sixty yards. Remember he
got a new contract his past year. James Cook and
Josh Allen are the offense. We could talk all day long.
We do in fantasy circles, Chazz. If you're not familiar
with wide receivers, who's the wide receiver going to be?

(41:51):
Who's that alpha dog going to be. Everyone's trying to
figure it out. But when it comes down to it,
the offense revolves around Josh Allen and James Cook. I
expect no less on Sunday. So I have Josh Allen
over thirty and a half pass attempts and James Cook
over fifty five and a half rushing yards.

Speaker 3 (42:09):
Cook was, uh, it was good to be when I
was in Vegas for the When I was in Vegas
for the you know AFC NFC weekend we do. Cook
was good to me last year.

Speaker 1 (42:21):
I was hopefully he's good again. So last game of
the week, Week one comes to a close on Monday
Night with the Minnesota Vikings and the Chicago Bears.

Speaker 2 (42:31):
Bears, So what do we got in this game?

Speaker 1 (42:33):
We got a We got a one and a half
point favorite Minnesota Vikings on the road with a forty
three and a half over under for the game. Do
you have anything here?

Speaker 3 (42:47):
No? Again, in the last two games, I put I
literally wrote on my cheek TBD because I want to
see where I'm at a lot of times when I
like a Monday night game, it's really exciting. If if
I have a good Sunday because I'm waking up, you know,
do I hedge? That's when when you when you're when

(43:08):
you've got all day Monday to think about, should I hedge?
It's a pretty good Monday?

Speaker 1 (43:15):
It is a pretty good Monday. As far as this
game goes. On my end, I don't have a ton
for you guys either. So I do have the Vikings
have won seven or last eight matchups, some of it
being a one and a half point spread. The Vikings
might be the bet there to go with, just based
on the trend, but that that's all I'm going on,
and I don't feel great about that. Because you have

(43:36):
the Vikings, the Vikings who have a one and a half.

Speaker 3 (43:39):
Yeah, he's know what I looked at Dan on this Yeah,
that's what I looked at Dan. I mean, you know,
he I realized, you know, he won a championship. Then
he got it hurt. I don't know. I'm just he's
still He's gonna be the youngest starter right this year,
the youngest NFL quarterback is him. You know what, So

(44:00):
you know, if I have money, if I have money
on Monday, I'll worry about it. But if I have
a bad Saturday and Sunday, I'm not gonna worry about it.

Speaker 1 (44:08):
Well then, and then on top of that the boot.
I mean, we got Ben Johnson Chicago Bears. Nobody doesn't care.
It is exactly gonna look like we're hopeful, but no
one really knows for sure on that end either. So,
like I said earlier, sometimes there's not value. There's not value.
You got any parlays of the week for us?

Speaker 3 (44:27):
Actually yes, but but it's it's college.

Speaker 2 (44:33):
We'll give us that Ole miss Saturday Morning.

Speaker 3 (44:36):
Ole Miss Oregon, and who's the third one? Ole Miss
Oregon and Missouri?

Speaker 2 (44:45):
Okay, all miss organ in Missouri. Let's lock that in.

Speaker 3 (44:50):
It is uh well, and remember the thing that that
allowed me to just accelerate my winnings and my success
straight was the round robin money line philosophy. You can't
really do the money line so on Saturday because of
the organ's given twenty seven, Right, you can't do a
money line on twenty seven. But I'm also for those three.

(45:13):
I'm also parlay their team total. So what I do
is I do the team totals first half in game
round robin. It's four plays than I do for the
first half the team total that's four plays, and then
I do the game and the first half. So I
have four different round robins with these teams, and it's
a big investment. But if they all hit, it pays

(45:35):
off nicely.

Speaker 1 (45:37):
I like it. I like it a lot. All right, guys,
we I'll hope you guys enjoyed our first episode all
those betting podcast for Operation Domination Chatz. Thanks so much
for coming on. Where can we find you? What do
we need to check you out?

Speaker 3 (45:50):
With? You? Man? Asha? You know what again? I spent
most of my summer writing. I'm finishing up my I
wrote a musical, I finished my screenplay. I've got you
can bet up you can bet out of it is
gonna be an Emmy Award winning TV show. I guarantee it.

(46:11):
I just gotta find somebody that believes in it too.
But what it does is the season, the NFL season
is each episode, each week is an episode. So we
write it Sunday night, and it's real. It's what really
happened in the sports betting world, which is one arc
of the show, and the other arc of the show
is the girls that are involved in the show. So

(46:32):
it's guys and girls. It's what you've seen in your life,
Dan with your wife and sports betting, all the issues
that come into play, the Christenings that are on Sunday morning,
the preacher at Mass that's talking late and you're trying
to get a second half bed in and he's going
on and on and on. It's those kinds of things.

(46:57):
But it's really thirty years of me writing down things.
It really happened. I tell people, I don't know, it's funny,
it was funny. It is funny. Funny is funny. It's funny.
So we're that's why focus this ball is getting you know, somebody,
you know, if anybody out there from Netflix or there's

(47:17):
so many places that need content, and our content is
so good because it's real, it's what happened in my life.
And I just took this summer to put one hundred
percent focus on writing it. So we're pretty excited. But
you know, I'm back now to doing my second half
chast stuff and I'm doing I'm back on the one website.
If you can find a website that does open parlays,

(47:41):
use them because they allows you to adapt. So I'm
doing second half open parlays round Robbins and I'm looking
to pay for my trip degrees.

Speaker 1 (47:51):
Sounds awesome to me. As as always, may I love
having you on guys. Make sure you're dowling Operation Domination
Football throughout the entire offseason your favorite podcast app and
going to the Fantasy Football Advice YouTube channel at ff
advice Net. Check out the huddle. You're gonna see me
everywhere this season. And we'll leave you with this heading
into the weekend. As chances you always like to say.

Speaker 3 (48:14):
Well, yeah, but I have to interject one thing. I've
known you guys for years. You've won people so much money.
Oh my goodness, gracious, I always be cashing.

Speaker 1 (48:24):
Always be cashing. We'll see you guys next week.

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