Week 6 Player Props You MUST Smash 🚀

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Operation Domination is underway. The ultimate game club. To dominate your.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
With your host, you gotta be confident about your achilles.

Speaker 1 (00:14):
Yeah, I mean I got it. Don't hope be great?
I'm dominated?

Speaker 2 (00:27):
Well right, all right, all right, Welcome back into another
episode of Operation Domination. You can download on your favorite
podcast app or check out our video content when you
go to the Fantasy Football Advice Network YouTube channel at
FF advice Net. Is three weeks in a row and
I'm following solo again. Today is always I'm your host,

(00:49):
Dan Mader Jazz FLHARDI is out gallivanting around the country
to hit different sportsbooks around so hopefully we'll hear back
from him soon, hopefully next week, but not gonna happen.
Just going to be me today while he's the line
in his pocket green, hopefully we'll be able to do

(01:09):
the same for you guys. Make sure you check out
our Fantasy Football relevant episodes that we've had the last
couple of weeks because we've been on fire, finish in
the top ten in the Fantasy pros accuracy rankings this
past week. So I'm doing my best to try to
get you guys the most accurate content that you can
possibly have to help you dominate your leagues right in

(01:29):
line with the show brand. So on Wednesday, you know,
we had our normal but we we changed it up
a little bit, so we have our start stick questions
or popular start shit questions and kind of dive into that.
But before you know, throughout the month of September, we
were talking about me Adam Chase, you know, what was
the biggest discrepancy in our rankings versus CCR. What value

(01:51):
do we see or did not see, you know, compared
to consensus. This week, because now we're in the October
and even redraft leagues have entered the by sell part
of the season, we brought back Dynasty Temperature Check.

Speaker 1 (02:05):
It was pretty cool. Adam leads the way on that one.

Speaker 2 (02:09):
What's the values that people are actually trading some of
these key players for? And it has redraft purposes as well,
but mostly some around Dynasty. And of course the DFS
Cocktail was delicious as always. Make sure you go check
out Chase Thorton's article that he puts out on Saturday
mornings for that DFS cocktail and your plays of the week.

(02:29):
Speaking of drinks, after that, you know, we had doctor
Brian Scott on last night, twenty five players that we
had to talk about for the injury inquiries for week six,
so much to one pack, plus you had two teams
on buy so all episodes that you need to make
sure you go back subscribe to the Operation Domination playlists
at FF advice Net on YouTube, or just make sure

(02:51):
you go to your favorite podcast app look for Operation
Domination Football. With that, let's talk about what today's show
is all about, the week six best bets. We're gonna
talk about some game lines. I'm gonna talk about my
player props and prove you a little bit on what
the article that I'm gonna have coming out on the
huddle like I do every Saturday ahead of time.

Speaker 1 (03:12):
So we got.

Speaker 2 (03:13):
Fifteen player props for you guys. I go into more
detail on the articles, so make sure you check me
out on the huddle. But let's dive into this thing.
There's another London game, another one. I hate these games
I do, and look, I'm on the East Coast.

Speaker 1 (03:29):
I shouldn't even be complaining that much.

Speaker 2 (03:32):
I understand that because if you're in the West coast,
god forbid, if you're in Hawaii, like you really can't
get up before those games start. I don't know how
you do, but even on the East Coast, we like
to party on Saturday night. We're not trying to get
up at like, you know, nine o'clock, nine to fifteen
to make sure everything's set right. And if you're in
like twenty something leagues like I am, you're never gonna

(03:53):
get that checked in time. You go to bed on
Saturday night hoping everything's settled right, you got all your news,
You're like, all right, who's who questionable?

Speaker 1 (04:00):
Who's not? We should be okay.

Speaker 2 (04:02):
Inevitably, there always winds up being somebody who's a last
second scratch, because keep in mind it's the afternoon in London,
and that's the problem. So you go through warm ups
and some of these players wind up pulling something during
the warm up. You can't prepare for it. Oh, the
Jalen warrant thing a couple weeks ago comes to mind.
How many times we've been burned on situations like that. Oh,

(04:24):
get rid of it.

Speaker 1 (04:24):
I hate it. I hate it.

Speaker 2 (04:26):
If you're gonna have an international game, fine, but just
due at a reasonable hour, pump it out to like
seven o'clock their time. Come on, give us a little
break here.

Speaker 1 (04:37):
At any rate.

Speaker 2 (04:37):
I digress, So nine point thirty Broncos and Jets, make
sure that you're all caught up on your players. I
can tell you from this standpoint, nobody on the Jets
or the Broncos seems to be like super questionable heading
into this game. Like anybody you were going to play,
we know is pretty much going to be available for
this one. So that's the good news there as far

(04:58):
as the line goes, whenever you get these international games
on neutral sites, it can get a little wonky, right.
Everything's out of sorts. You're in a different country, first
of all, when you're flying out to go practice for
the week, you're playing at a way random time. Whether
you're a West Coast or an East Coast team, it
doesn't matter. Your body clock's all screwed up.

Speaker 1 (05:17):
So these things can.

Speaker 2 (05:18):
Get wonky because of those elements. But right now, the
Broncos are favored at seven and a half points and
the over under and have forty three and a half.
The Broncos have been two to two and one against
the spread so far this season, one and four with
over versus under four of their games going under. The

(05:39):
opposite is true for the Jets four of their games
have gone over and they're two and three against the spread.
So there's not a lot of trend data to kind
of help us out here in this one, other than
which one do you believe? Because the Jets defense has
been terrible and it's not getting any better. A lot
of their games have gone over. The Broncos defense is

(06:00):
very good on the flip side of that, But the
Broncos offense, I think, to me here is the key.

Speaker 1 (06:06):
How much do they actually push it.

Speaker 2 (06:08):
Sean Payton's all too happy to sit back and just
win an ugly game when he's in a position to
do so. We've seen it time and time again. So
if anything, I'm leaning towards the under in this one.
The Broncos defense should have no problem handling the Jets offense,
which consists of really just three players. Two of them
are runners and fields in Brisaw and then Garrett Wilson,

(06:30):
who's going to get the Patrick Sir Tan treatment. I
don't see the Jets being able to put up a
ton of points in this game on the flip side
of that, while the Broncos offense could put up a
decent amount. Again, I go back to when Sean Payn
has the opportunity to just grind out wins, he takes it.
He's not the Ben Johnson's of the world. He's not.
He's not the Detroit Lions of the world. He doesn't

(06:52):
put up points when the opportunity presents itself to do so,
even though you might not have to. That's not his style.
So I'm taking then in this game at forty three
and a half, I'm staying away from the line again
because the Broncos don't push it. That tends to let
lesser teams hang around longer than they should. Are they
to clear the superior team, Yes, but I'm staying away

(07:13):
from the line in this game. I don't have any
props for you guys in this one. But let's get
into the Cardinals.

Speaker 1 (07:19):
And the Colts.

Speaker 2 (07:21):
So the Colts are legit, first of all, and I
can't believe it.

Speaker 1 (07:26):
Well, you know what I can.

Speaker 2 (07:27):
I shouldn't say I can't believe it because I was
talking about in the offseason how the Colts did a
lot of good things on the defensive side of the ball.
Now right now, their secondary is a little bit banged up,
and once they face a team that has the ability
to stretch them out, they're gonna be in trouble. But
the problem is they're not playing anybody who has that ability.

Speaker 1 (07:45):
Right now. Everyone's playing right into their hands.

Speaker 2 (07:48):
They got a good front seven, and they're able to
hang back, protect from the deep ball, run up and
tackle and play good fundamental football and everything's playing right
into their hands right now based on the opponent that
they're playing, because right now in the NFL, outside of
the Rams, there really isn't any deadly passing attacks. The

(08:08):
Rams and the Lions are the only two teams that
offenses frankly on a weekend week out.

Speaker 1 (08:14):
Bases have impressed me.

Speaker 2 (08:15):
The Chargers did the first three weeks, but even they've
kind of gone a little bit wonky the last two
weeks without being able to run the football and that
Greg Roman offense. The Bills are the Bills. I guess
they're kind of Josh Allen's impressive. I don't know about
the rest of that team, to be honest with you,
especially with the passing attack. So a lot of this
I'm just kind of laying this out there, like the
Colts are in prime position to do what they do

(08:37):
best and have the rest of the league play into
their hands for them.

Speaker 1 (08:41):
Colts aren't going anywhere.

Speaker 2 (08:43):
This is going to be a team that not only
they probably win the division, but we might be looking
at like a tour or three seed with Daniel Jones
on Indianapolis who to thunk and props to Shane Stikeen, Like,
there was a lot of things I was questioning about
stike in last year, and it was besides the Anthony
Richardson stuff, Like a lot of people are like, oh,

(09:03):
look what happens. We have a quarterback who plays on time.
Sure that helps, But a lot of the problems the
Colts had a season ago is that they weren't building
the offense around Ding Ding Ding Jonathan Taylor. They are
doing that this season. The offensive line has improved, Jonathan
Taylor's been an absolute beast. Play action pass as a
result opens up for Daniel Jones and that's what he's

(09:25):
best at. Not to mention, the Colts have had wide receivers,
just haven't been had an efficient quarterback to be able
to use them consistently. That's been the biggest problem. So
they're for real. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are
a team that are They're about to implode. Kyler Murray
is garbage period. As a quarterback, he is garbage, and

(09:49):
even as a playmaker, he's second rate. He's not on
Jayden Daniels level. He's not on Lamar Jackson level. He's
not on Josh Allen level. He's not on jail On
Hurts level. The list kind of goes on on and on.
He's quick, but not fast. He can move the chains,
but not bust a game wide open. And that's just

(10:11):
with his legs. He's not throwing the football all and
hasn't for the last two seasons.

Speaker 1 (10:18):
Now you're throw in Drew Petsing's.

Speaker 2 (10:20):
You know, play calling, which has been horrendous in this
usage of the players that they do have on that team.

Speaker 1 (10:28):
This is a team that's going to implode soon.

Speaker 2 (10:30):
I know that the Tennessee loss, and I'm not overreacting
to the Tennessee loss here. That was a crazy way
that get game ended, Like it was like, you know,
prayer miracle, like you make movies out of the way
that game ended for an underdog team was.

Speaker 1 (10:46):
It was insane.

Speaker 2 (10:48):
It's more than that. It looks like a team that's broken.
So with all that said, this game in Indianapolis right now,
the Colts are favored at seven points with an over
under set at forty seven and a half. First of all,
I gotta say I kind of like the under. I
wouldn't be shocked if the Colts put up thirty in

(11:10):
this game. But would you really be surprised if the
Cardinals put up seventeen or less? I wouldn't, not with
that offense, not right now, not against this Colts team.
So I'm taking the under in this game, and I'm
gonna take the Colts to cover. I don't think Arizona
puts up that many points. Now here's the risk to this.
The Cardinals have shown in the past that they seem

(11:32):
to find a way to play up to their competition.
They played down to their competition too, but they also
play up to their competition, right, So that's.

Speaker 1 (11:43):
Where it's a little bit.

Speaker 2 (11:45):
But the Cardinals so far this season two and three
against the spread, two to three in favor of the
under over the under, of the under in favor over
the over. Say that again ten times fast, and the
Colts are form winn again.

Speaker 1 (12:00):
The spread.

Speaker 2 (12:03):
I'm getting I'm taking the Colts seven points. I'm taking
the under forty seven and a half. I don't think
the Cardinals are gonna be able to keep pace at
the end of the day, no props for you in
this one. Patriots and Saints, we're getting to those props.
Don't worry after this game. I'm gonna have well, actually
in this game, I have won, and then there's gonna
be a couple of games you're gonna see. I hammered hard.
But Patriots in the Saints is in New Orleans. The

(12:26):
Saints coming off their first win of the year. It
finally happened. Spencer Ratler won his first game. I think
it was oh to ten was the stat something along
those lines. The Patriots are three and a half favorites
on the road and a forty five and a half
over under. Patriots coming off a huge win against the

(12:50):
Buffalo Bills, right huge. Patriots are a team that they're rebuilding,
the culture starting the franchise essentially over with the new
regime at the coaching staff made a bunch of moves
in the off season to try to improve what already
was the worst roster in the NFL anyway, so they
had nowhere to go but up. But we're aggressive about

(13:12):
it in the off season, and your big barometer when
you're in the middle of a build like that is
taking on the division's previous winner and beating them on
the road.

Speaker 1 (13:27):
They did that.

Speaker 2 (13:29):
Now, the part of this the Bills played down in
their competition a little bit, and we've seen the Bills
do this in the past. I'm not taking anything away
from the Patriots, though. That was a win that he
needed to have to see where they could lie. And
Drake May's a real deal.

Speaker 1 (13:47):
Now.

Speaker 2 (13:48):
Coming off of a big victory like that over a
division rival has a lot of emotion to it, a
lot of adrenaline that sometimes can have a laxa day's
goal after effect the following week.

Speaker 1 (14:03):
And maybe we don't.

Speaker 2 (14:04):
See the sharpest game from the Patriots, or at least
not as sharpest we saw them against Buffalo. Maybe the
Saints hang around longer than they should, but ultimately this
is not a game I think the Saints can win
or even cover for that matter. I'm taking the Patriots
minus three and a half is one of my big

(14:26):
lock them in bets of the week. Bringing out the
Saints offense. They're operating in the middle, short range part
of the field. That's what the whole offensive attack is intermediate,
the short range. That's what the whole offensive attack is
focused in on.

Speaker 1 (14:43):
Patriots.

Speaker 2 (14:43):
They got Christian Gonzales back. Their front seven is playing
good Mike vrabel brand fundamental defense. Nothing special. They're not
rushing the pass or at a crazy rate. They're not
making crazy hard hits. They're making a lot of time
and overs. They're playing fundamental football, Mike vrabel Brand style.

(15:07):
So yeah, when you add that in and a Saints
team that doesn't have a ton of firepower, to me,
it's a no brainer. The Patriots will cover this game,
even on the road at three and a half favorites.
They're three and two against the spread so far. Now
here's what's a little bit surprising that the Saints are
two and three against the spread, so they haven't been
too schlubby in that area. But here's my first player

(15:32):
prop that I have for you that I'm gonna talk
a little bit more on the article. But Chrystal lave
reception yards. His line is sitting at fifty six and
a half. My projection comes in at about forty eight
point eight receiving yards somewhere around there. So I have
a cover probability based on a seven point seven edge

(15:53):
at sixty five percent for Crystal Lave. Typically speaking, when
you're getting a player who's getting like eight to ten
targets every single week and he has a line of
fifty six and a half reception yards and you're betting
the under, you should be considered a madman. The problem

(16:15):
is Chris Olav has an a dot like he's a
running back. Remember when I said this whole offense is
operating and the short range middle part of the field, Yeah,
Olave is part of that. I mean, like ten targets,
ten receptions for like forty five to fifty yards. That's
been the stat lines for Chrys Olav. And now, like

(16:36):
I said, with the Patriots getting guys like Christian Gonzalez back,
they got a little bit tougher in the secondary. I
mean his last three games, he's averaging forty five point
three yards. There's nothing explosive down the field. Spencer Rattler
simply cannot stretch the field.

Speaker 1 (16:52):
Period.

Speaker 2 (16:53):
It's not working out that way. So give me the
under and Chris o'lave a fifty six and a half
receiving rams and ravens. This looked like such a better
matchup in the beginning, of the season like this was.

Speaker 1 (17:11):
Gonna be an exciting wan.

Speaker 2 (17:12):
We kind of had an idea, as long as Stafford
was healthy that this was more or less the version
of the Rams that we were going to get. We
didn't know that the Ravens were gonna be one of
the worst teams in the NFL, partly, of course, due
to Lamar Jackson injury, but largely due to the fact
that that defense just can't get the job done. So

(17:36):
the Ravens, I'm sorry, the Rams come in to the Ravens.
It's seven and a half point favorites on the road.
Let me say that again. The Baltimore Ravens at home
are seven and a half point underdogs. Oh and the
Ravens have been one and four against the spread so far.

(18:00):
Now here's the other part of this forty four and
a half. That's the over under for the Ravens. All
five of their games have gone over because their defense
has been so bad.

Speaker 1 (18:11):
And that's not a high over under either at forty
four and a half.

Speaker 2 (18:15):
The Rams are a little bit better at five hundred
three and two against the spread, three and two in
the over under. This game is screaming over to me.
Forty four and a half points, give me the over.
The Rams are going to look for a balanced back week,
and honestly, there's no reason why they shouldn't be able
to get it with matchups like Poka Nakua, who you

(18:36):
better believe for the I think this is the fifth
week in a row I'm going to be betting the
over on Pooka Nakua's receiving yards prop line. And it's
only missed once. It's only missed once, and that was
again San Francisco last week, where he still had the
decent number, but the line was so high because if
you have been on fire to that point, the line
is high a gear.

Speaker 1 (18:56):
Again here eight and a half receiving yards.

Speaker 2 (19:01):
That's the line, and I still haven't projected at one
hundred and seventeen point six. It's a seventy two to
seventy four percent cover probability. Based on the projection. For Pokinakua,
I could lay it out for you. He's averaging one
hundred and twenty two receiving yards over the last three games.
The Ravens have allowed the most the most receiving yards,

(19:28):
I'm sorry, the second most because the Dallas Cowboys are
still there second most receiving yards too wide receivers this season,
and it's an offense that's funneling the ball to two
players in the passing game and then Kyrin Williams in
the backfield. There's nobody on the Ravens right now who
can remote. Nobody in the league can cover Pookinakoa right

(19:48):
now so far this season. Definitely nobody on the Ravens.
He is as sure of a thing to get over
one hundred yards as there can be this week for
any player at their position. So yeah, Pukunukua over ninety
eight point five yards. I think he smashes that in
a great matchup here against the Baltimore Ravens. All right,

(20:12):
so let's see here, what's next. Brown's at the Steelers.
This game over under is thirty six and a half,
thirty seven and a half. It was at thirty seven
and a half, moved to thirty six. I've seen it
go back and forth. The point is this, I don't
care what they move it to give me the under.

(20:34):
You could make it thirty and I would still make
I would still get the under. The Browns don't score points,
but their defense is leade enough to make sure that
the other team doesn't score points either. The Steelers, Mike Tomlin,
Arthur Smith. It's not about Sean Payton being all too
happy about grinding out wins. Good god, they live on it.

(20:58):
This game might not get twenty eight total, like maybe
twenty nine. I haven't projected actually as a seventeen to
ten ballgame, So twenty seven points is actually what I
have this projected at. And that would also be enough
for the Steelers to cover. Because I do the Steelers
scoring seventeen with the brown scoring ten, I'm gonna stay

(21:21):
away from the Steelers at five and a half.

Speaker 1 (21:23):
It's the visional game. We've seen a bunch of divisional.

Speaker 2 (21:25):
Games already this season get weird, especially when you're trying
to bet with the spread but the over under, whether
it's thirty seven and a half or thirty six and
a half by the time this game kicks off, I
don't care which it is. Give me the under on that.
Dylan Gabriel in this offense can only do so much
for the Cleveland Browns, and the Steelers defense going into
their bye week was starting to play better anyway, and

(21:48):
then convertly on the Steelers offensive side, there's only so
much firepower they have going up against an elite defense,
So the under is the way to go. I'm not
betting player props in a game that I think is
gonna be super ugly because too many wildcards can happen
in games of crips like that. But don't worry, because
the Seahawks Jacksonville game gonna pound this game, pound this

(22:11):
game with player props. It might even be four. It
might even have a four pick parlay for you in
the same game. So let's talk about that. It's in Jacksonville,
the Seahawks on the road, and this is disrespectful. This
is this is just flat out one percent disrespectful. The

(22:31):
Jaguars just beat the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Seahawks
on the road in Jacksonville are favored at one. This respectful.
They beat the Chiefs in a Monday night game. How
is Seattle favored in this ballgame? So here's what we're

(22:54):
gonna do. You know what that sounder means, Jacksonville Jaguars,
straight up, straight up in this game. Is my underdog
special of the week. One and a half points in Jacksonville. Look,
the Jaguars have been inconsistent There's absolutely no doubt about that.

(23:17):
But the Seahawks defense is one of the most overrated
units in the NFL and Devon Witherspoon. We still got
to see the official injury reports, but Devon Witherspoon as
of this recording, is still trending towards potentially not playing.
And I don't care if Tarik Wollen comes back from
his concussion or not.

Speaker 1 (23:38):
He stinks.

Speaker 2 (23:39):
Nobody else besides Devon Witherspoon is worth a damn in
that secondary. And this is not a team getting a
ton of pressure on the other quarterbacks. So this plays
in the Jaguars hand to play third game. Now, here's
what I will say, the forty seven and a half
over under. I'm not usually a guy who takes a

(23:59):
lot of unders when it comes to the totals, but
I have so far tonight.

Speaker 1 (24:03):
I'm taking the under in that one.

Speaker 2 (24:05):
So the Jaguars defense has been playing pretty well, especially
against the run. So with Seattle's the weakness of both
defenses is running backs catching the ball out of the backfield.
The thing is is that neither offense has been throwing
the ball. Throwing the ball to the running back out
of the backfield. All that often. We'll talk about Travis
Eten in the second. And I think we all know

(24:25):
whether the Seattle Seahawks situation this game sets up to
be just low scoring.

Speaker 1 (24:31):
It does.

Speaker 2 (24:34):
Because you have two passing offenses. Now, maybe Seattle less so,
but they're kind of inconsistent, right Sam Donald Trevor Lawrence.
We know what their history has been now, and I
said Seattle less so because Donald has been very, very
good up until this point. But he also hasn't played
a defense as hot as the Jacksonville Jaguars are right now.

(24:55):
And I want to emphasize hot because when I look
at this defense on paper, and I know they just
made the deal with they sent off Tyson Campbell for
Gavin Newsom. Okay, fine, whatever, But on paper, this is
not a defense that I think should be as shutdown
as they are. But they are playing hot right now,
so we can go off of that. Yeah, give me

(25:16):
the under at forty seven and a half the Jaguars
winning this game outright. I love that bet over there,
all right, So just get you caught up here. The
Seattle is three and two against the spread. Jacksonville's four
and one against the spread, so even more trending towards
Jacksonville being our underdog special of the week. And now
let's get into the player props because I'll be hammering

(25:37):
this pretty hard in this game. So again I told
you I have four. I got Jackson Smith in the JIGBA.
If I could talk his player reception yards at eighty
and a half over under, I'm projecting him for one
hundred and six point eight. Yes, it's a little bit
of a tougher matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars. I understand

(25:59):
that to some degree, but like I said, that's on paper.
Jayos EN's beginning featured like a number one wide receiver,
high volume. Every single week. The passing offense flows through
him first. He's averaging over the last three games one
hundred and two point three receiving yards with a line

(26:20):
of eighty and a half. So the books are trying
to give you a little bit of a break given
the matchup in this scenario, and I think it's a
matchup that Jaysn could take advantage of. So give me
the over on that. We're not done Seattle. Still, Zach
sharbinat his rush and reception yards total is sitting at

(26:41):
fifty one and a half. That's a great value for
the under. I think Week one was the only time
Zach Sharbenay would have hit the over in this mark. Like,
I got a projective for thirty seven point three total yards,
and maybe that's a little bit low, but I certainly

(27:01):
have him far lower than the fifty one and a
half line that they have him said at. He's not
getting enough work and he's not efficient with the opportunities
that he does get to really be a threat to
go over this line. Right now, Kenneth Walker's is starting
running back against the majority of the carries. Here's the
problem with Zach Sharbonay. While snap wise, he either is

(27:22):
the same or maybe even a couple snaps more than
Kenneth Walker because he plays more on passing downs, two
minute drill, long down distance, and so forth. Even though
he's out in the field, he's not getting the opportunities
when he's out there. The only area of the field
that Zach Charbonay consistently gets legitimate opportunities is inside the

(27:45):
five yard line, which I mean great fantasy wise, if
you're chasing touchdowns, he's the guy you're chasing a touchdown with. Sure,
but betting wise, for yards.

Speaker 1 (27:54):
Purposes, that doesn't help.

Speaker 2 (27:56):
It doesn't help you get to fifty one and a
half when you're already five yards in getting the ball,
and that's where the majority of your work comes from
in the first place. Could Charbona bust one at some point, sure,
But the one thing that's been really legitimate in my
eyes with this Jacksonville defense has been the front seven.
So give me the under fifty one and a half

(28:17):
for Sharbona on his total yards. Let's move to Kenneth
Walker's total yards, shall he since we brought him up now,
I'm going the opposite direction here, so his rush and
receiving yards, the line is at sixty seven and a half.
Now in this one I have n't projected at seventy
seven point six, grant you. It has mostly to do

(28:39):
with the rushing yards efficiency as he's getting maybe a
target here or there in the passing game. It's not
very much, but maybe just a little bit to kind
of help him out, which is why I take the
Russian reception yards here at sixty seven and a half.
So his last three games he's been averaging sixty eight

(29:00):
point three rushing yards by itself, so just a rushing
alone on his average last three games would kind of
put him on the over and then thirteen point seven
receiving yards. That's mostly due to a twenty nine yard
catch he had on Thursday Night Football Gains the Arizona
Cardinals a couple.

Speaker 1 (29:14):
Of weeks ago.

Speaker 2 (29:15):
But we do know that Kenneth Walker when he gets
the ball in space, has the opportunities to make big plays.

Speaker 1 (29:21):
So that's what this boiled down boils.

Speaker 2 (29:23):
Down to for me, ultimately speaking, Now, the Jacksonville Jaguars
have allowed one hundred and eighteen point six running back
rushing and receiving yards per game. Now, obviously that's to
the unit, the whole running back backfield of the other team,
not just one player, but knowing what the usage is,

(29:44):
Kenneth Walker likely to get the majority of that. Okay,
we're still on this game. So this is for the
four same game parlay player prop that we got going
Travis Etn his reception yards over unders at fourteen and
a half.

Speaker 1 (30:02):
I have the under in this one too, I got
I'm projected at about eight.

Speaker 2 (30:07):
As great as Travis Etn's been and as much as
he's had a history of being a really good receiving
running back. He hasn't been utilized as such this season,
so the quent Allen and Basehall Tuton have actually come
in and stolen a lot of snaps in that part
of the game. For Travis ETM that's been the biggest problem.

(30:31):
Why he can't still get targeted on early downs when
we know he's a good pass catching back. I'm not
really sure, but that's not what we've seen to this point.
I mean, really, honestly, in general, the Jacksonville Jaguars under
Liam Cohen through five weeks has not really thrown the
ball to the running backs since even with laquent Allen
and base Shall Tuton playing in those situations, they're not

(30:52):
gardnering a whole hell of a lot of targets either.
So the last three games, on average, ETN has had
three point three yards receiving, like it's pretty low. That's
pretty low. Now, And I don't remember now if I
mentioned this or not. No one talking, It's hard to
remember everything I say. But the Seattle Seahawks, while they're

(31:15):
only giving up three and I think this was a
couple of days ago, I think that's what it was.
They're only giving up three point three rushing yards per play,
it's really hard to run on them. But they've allowed
the seventh most receiving yards to the running backs this season,
so it's a matchup in which you should be able
to take advantage of throwing to your running back out
of the backfield. Look, maybe the Jaguars do again. Travisy

(31:37):
tn can catch the ball, so that would be the
risk you're having with a fourteen and a half reception
yards over under mark. But because through five weeks the
usage has just flat out not been there in the
passing game, That's kind of what I'm betting on here,
and that's why I still take the under, even though
it's a low prop to begin with. Next is gonna

(31:58):
be the other game that I hammer pretty hard with
player props. So Chargers at the Dolphins. Chargers favored in
this game at four and a half points, Chargers should
be favored. But this feels a little bit like a
trap from a couple of weeks ago, and I mentioned it. Now,
I didn't tell you to go out and bet on
the Giants, so I'm not going to count it as

(32:19):
a win. But I did mention that the Chargers have
a hell of a history when traveling from the west
coast to the east coast and actually being able to cover.
They don't do it very often, and it hasn't mattered
what coach, who the quarterback was, the status of the organization,
none of that. Whenever the Chargers have traveled from west

(32:40):
to east, it doesn't seem to work out very well.
Having said that, the Colt stink, I mean, I'm sorry
that the Dolphins stink, and the Chargers should be favored,
and they are.

Speaker 1 (32:51):
If mine is four and a half points.

Speaker 2 (32:52):
I'm not taking it. I'm not looking at the over
under here either. This game would go far too many
different ways if you want to know what the trend is.
They're also bucking each other. So the Chargers are one
in four towards the under. Okay, well, the Dolphins are
four and one towards the over.

Speaker 1 (33:13):
So you're getting two teams that.

Speaker 2 (33:14):
Are clashing from two different trends here with the Dolphins
defense being as bad as it is, and that the
Chargers offense does have Justin Herbert, even if they don't
have a great running game because Amaron Hampton's out, we
know they have the passing weapons. They haven't been afraid
to throw the ball under Greg Roman, and they know
they have justin Herbert against a horrible defense. For fantasy

(33:39):
players out there, you may notice that, like all right,
the Dolphins have not given up a ton of points
to wide receiver fantasy points to wide receivers. It's mostly
because they've been a run funnel. If you actually look
at their efficiency defending the pass, they're one of the
worst in the league. In fact, they're top three in
most passing yards per play allowed. So it's not because

(34:01):
their secondary is good. Their run defense just thinks. It's
just because their run defense is so bad that teams
just take the easy way out.

Speaker 1 (34:08):
But when they do want to throw, they can. It's
not a problem.

Speaker 2 (34:13):
And the Chargers are now coming into this game as
a team that I don't know how much they're going
to be able to run the ball because they're so
bad at it right now with that banged up offensive
line and Hassan Haskins at Kamani Vidal.

Speaker 1 (34:27):
So it's interesting from that standpoint.

Speaker 2 (34:29):
I would lean towards the over at forty four and
a half because the Chargers defense is the defense it's
kind of vulnerable at the moment in their own right,
but otherwise, I'd rather focus on the props. Speaking of
Justin Herbert, he's been running a lot more lately, and
his line in this game for his rushing yards is

(34:50):
at seventeen and a half.

Speaker 1 (34:52):
I haven't projected for thirty. I haven't crushed in this
one now. He's actually averaged thirty rushing yards last three games. Anyway,
he's been scrambling. The lack of a run game when
you have a mobile quarterback tends to lean on them.
Whether it's designed or scrambles, it doesn't matter that they'll
be the ones leading the way in rushing yards. I

(35:13):
wouldn't be surprised if out of the next four games
that Amarrion Hampton is expected to miss that Justin Herbert
is the leading rusher and at least two of them,
and it would track that that would likely be this
game as one of them. So give me Justin Herbert
over seventeen and a half rushing yards in this love

(35:33):
that bat against this Miami defense. Not done with this game,
devon a jan reception yards thirty and a half. Now,
this is one of my tighter edges of the week. Okay,
but I haven't rejected thirty four point six He's been
averaging about twenty point three the last three games, so

(35:54):
he is kind of under what that line is on
his average.

Speaker 2 (35:57):
But we also know a chance explosive this. We know
that the target share has consolidated around Jalen wall Darren Waller,
and Devon a Chan, and we know that if we
take in the expected game script, which is something I

(36:18):
typically do when trying to project these players, the Dolphins
should have to come back from behind at some point
in this game, and one of the easiest things for
them to do is to check the ball down to
Devon a Chant. So give me over thirty and a
half receiving yards just due to the usage heading his direction. Now,

(36:42):
with dough Tyreek Hill and the Chargers themselves allowing twenty
four point four receiving yards per games at the running
backs two, I mean they're not They're not a leaky valve,
but they're also not stout either. Let's get to Darren
Waller game. So I'm also on Darren Waller. So his
reception yards thirty six and a half over under far

(37:06):
too low. Like that should have been your initial reaction
right there, those your first time hearing that. Darren Waller
thirty six and a half reception yards far too low.
I can projected at fifty two point five. Now, you
can point out the fact that he didn't get a
catch in the second half. I get that, when the
first half alone, the guy had seventy nine yards this
past week. This team is desperate for playmakers, and I

(37:29):
can't believe I'm this confident on a player who had
a two year hiatus, but I am one. He's the
only player they have they can throw a jump ball
to two Outside of Ganna Wallow, he's the only other
target that's a legitimate threat down the field period. So

(37:52):
he's averaging fifty two and a half receiving yards right now.
Like get or Done, the Chargers have been stingy against
the tight end. That is true, but given how this
offense is constituted, there's a likelihood that they're going to
have to have somebody playing over the top of the
jail and waddle deep ball. That opens up Darren Waller,

(38:15):
who likely would be a red zone target as well.

Speaker 1 (38:17):
And when you only have a thirty six.

Speaker 2 (38:20):
And a half yard line, being a red zone target
can actually play into your favor of getting over in
that instance. All right, So let's check this out. Cowboys
and the Panthers, two teams trying to figure out which
direction they're going to trend in, plain and simple, the

(38:41):
Cowboys are favored in this game at on the road
by three points forty nine and a half over under.
The Cowboys should smash. Bryce Young is awful, just terrible.

(39:05):
The experiment needs to end. And the Cowboys, even though
they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL,
don't get me twisted, have.

Speaker 1 (39:14):
Been kind of impressive Dak in.

Speaker 2 (39:17):
Particular, considering there's been no CD Lamb and Brian Schottenheimer,
who I still don't believe in is the head coach.
Calin plays it's actually looked okay. So Dallas is coming
into this game three and two, gets the spread, but
so is Carolina. There's nothing in the trend data that
would tell you one way or another other than I

(39:39):
think the Cowboys are just flat out the better team,
so giving them the cover by three points. All right,
So let's talk about Javonte Williams. This is my player
prop for this game. Rushing yards seventy six and a
half is his line on the over under. And we
just got word today that Miles Sanders is going to
be out for the rest of the season. All nobody

(40:01):
in the way of Javonte Williams and his overall touches.
Jayden Blue is not a factor when it comes to this.
So seventy six and a half. I got him projected
for eighty nine and a half on the ground against
one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. And
he's been averaging ninety eight point seven rushing yards of
the last three games anyway, with eighteen to twenty attempts.

(40:26):
That screams getting over seventy six and a half. So
I love this bet here for Javonte Williams against the
Carolina Panthers. Now next up, here's what we got Titans
and Raiders. I know, I try to just give that

(40:48):
some dramatic like intro to make it sound more interesting
than what it actually is. Other than this, unless you're
betting on this game, unless you have fantasy players involved
in this game, you don't care about this game.

Speaker 1 (41:00):
Of the Jets and the Raiders fans don't care about
this game. It's brutal for both these guys.

Speaker 2 (41:06):
Oh man, or some Titans and Raiders fans, excuse me,
So the Raiders are favored at home at four and
a half points, the over under set at forty one
and a half. When you're dealing with two really bad
teams like this, there's nothing to bet here in the
overall lines. You want to live, bet it, go for it,
be my guest. The only trend that's really looking at

(41:29):
right now is the Raiders are one and four against
the spread.

Speaker 1 (41:31):
I know Tennessee won last week, it was so fluky.

Speaker 2 (41:35):
I know the Raider has been so awful, like this
thing could go either way, and I don't have a
ton of props in this game. Two bad teams, unless
there's somebody that really sticks out to you, makes it
difficult to actually find value. So let's move on to
the forty nine ers in the Bucks. It's in Tampa Bay.
The Bucks are favored at three and a half points,

(41:55):
the over under set at forty seven and a half.
Both teams are three and two against the spread. Both
teams are three and two over verse under. I know
people are looking at the forty nine Ers like, whoa
he pulled off a crazy win against the Rams when
they were eight and a half point underdogs. With what's
looking like is gonna essentially be the same team maybe

(42:17):
plus Jawan Jennings because Juwan Jennings might play. There's still
no party, there's still no Ricky Piersaw. George Kittle's not
coming back till next week. Obviously, Nick Boss done for
the year. It's hard to do it twice. Look, first
of all, Shanahan knows how to win against McVay. He's
proven that over the years. Tampa Bay has knocked off

(42:41):
some really good teams. Now they've done it in a
fashion that I don't believe is sustainable by winning these
games on the end of fourth quarter game winning drives.
You live and die that way. It's gonna regress the
other way eventually. But they have played good football against
really good football teams. And this is at home. I

(43:03):
know the Bucks are kind of banged up in their
own right. Chris Godwin's not gonna play in this game.
Like you're back down though, because we're still waiting for
Mike Evans to make progress from his hamstring injury.

Speaker 1 (43:14):
You really think.

Speaker 2 (43:15):
Mac Jones and ketching Bourne are going to beat out
another team that they're underdogs for.

Speaker 1 (43:23):
Really think is going to happen?

Speaker 2 (43:27):
Baker Mayfield to make a BOOKA been really good. So
the Bucks are only three and a half point favorites
in this game. Give me the cover. Give me the cover.
It doesn't make any sense not to. All right, So now,
because I don't have any props for in this game,
let's move on. Four o'clock hour. We're got the Bengals

(43:48):
and the Packers coming up. Packers coming off the bye week.
The Bengals just traded for Joe Flaco, so they should
have hope.

Speaker 1 (43:57):
No, isn't that how that works?

Speaker 2 (44:00):
Eh? Maybe not so much. I don't think it makes
a difference. It was funny to me that was Joe
Flacco because it was like, of all the trades you
could have made to address the quarterback position, like you
made the one that was at the most unilateral move
you possibly could have. Like, didn't get worse, couldn't really
get worse, definitely didn't get better. Like when these two

(44:21):
guys were playing, Joe Viio for the Browns and Jake
Brown for the Bengkals, they were the second and third
worst quarterbacks in the league, the worst one being Cam
wod to this point, not all his fault, but that
you know, that's where we are, So I don't I
don't think this makes a difference. Joe Flacco's problem is
that he can't move anymore. He was behind a bad

(44:41):
offensive line getting smacked over and over again on a shotgun.
Sound familiar because it should eat exactly what's going on
with Jake Browning. So what's the difference? I mean, maybe
Joe Flacco, even his old age, is a little bit
of a better arm Jake Browning does. Maybe maybe it's
about it now. This is a big over under the

(45:05):
pack I'm sorry, a big line. I should say it's
not a big over under. It's a big line. Packers
are favored at fourteen and a half points. It can
be a little nerve racking because the last time we
saw the Packers with a big old line, they wound
up losing the game outright to the Cleveland Browns. The
Cincinnati Bengals do not have the Cleveland Browns defense. That's

(45:27):
the big difference here. And this game's also in Green Bay.
I typically don't do this because you typically don't get
these lines. But I am going to take the Packers
to cover a fourteen and a half. I am I'm
gonna go out record taking the Packers at fourteen and
a half. I think they get a little bit of
a bounce back. So they had two kind of rough games, right,

(45:48):
Like they lost to the Browns. They tied with the
Packers when they should have beat them up.

Speaker 1 (45:53):
They're two and two against the spread.

Speaker 2 (45:55):
They're actually one and three to the under, by the way,
but the Bengals are one and four against spread. You're
bringing in Joe Flacco who wasn't part of this team
at all, and named him the starter day one.

Speaker 1 (46:06):
After the trade.

Speaker 2 (46:07):
Maybe Zach Taylor shortens up the playbook and makes it
real simple for him, Like Yo, just all the ball
of Jamar Chase. And that's not a bad strategy, it's not.
But he's gonna get killed with this Packers pass rush.
That's what I'm That's what I'm making on here and
after the bye week that the Packers are probably gonna
come out with their offense just st up and ready
to go. So give me the fourteen and a half there.

(46:28):
I do have props to this game, and this has
been a common one that I've been betting several weeks
in a row. Now, Chase Brown rushing yards set at
forty five and a half, I'm still taking the under.
The starting running back, and I'm still taking the under
a forty five and a half rushing yards. The answer
is yes. The answer is yes. He's averaged twenty three

(46:54):
point three rushing yards the last three games.

Speaker 1 (46:57):
Oh my god, it's been awful. This offense can't move
the ball.

Speaker 2 (47:04):
The offensive line can't block, no matter if it's passing
or rushing, they can't get a push. It's been so
bad for Chase Brown. And I feel so bad for
Chase Brown fantasy football owners out there, I really really do.
But I'm still gonna take the under here. The Packers.
I know they had a rough one against Javonte Williams,
but it's still a top five team against the run

(47:24):
right now. This is not an easy team to run on,
especially when you don't have a good offensive line, and
especially when the running back you do have is not
a bruiser. Chase Brown is more reliant on getting outside
the tackle and his finesse. I do think you can
run the ball down the Packers throat if you have

(47:44):
the right setup, if you have a decent interior offensive
line and a power running back, I think you can
have success against this Packers defensive front. But if you
have a bad offensive line and a running back who
depends on his speed explosiveness to make plays. That's a
bad matchup against this Packers defense. So give me the

(48:05):
under on Chase Brown forty five and a half. Let's
get in to Sunday, not Lions at the Chiefs. This
is going to be one of the biggest games to
look forward to, and thankfully we got good news because
it was starting to get a little bit scary there
for a second with Xavier Worthy. But it sounds like

(48:26):
he's off the injury report and expected to be good.

Speaker 1 (48:28):
To go to play.

Speaker 2 (48:30):
Cool, because I didn't want to see this game without
Xavier Worthy, because I didn't want to see this game
with the Chiefs reverting back to what they were the
first couple of weeks of the season.

Speaker 1 (48:37):
Ough, awful. Let me see Patrick Mahomes too.

Speaker 2 (48:40):
Patri Mahomes things he needs to be able to do
that if he has fast receivers on the field. Let's
give it to me. In Detroit, their secondary is completely
banged up. This is about to be a pass funnel
defense if it wasn't really already, because it was kind
of already on its way to doing so. So this game,
the Chiefs are home favored at two and a half
points at home home, the under set at fifty two

(49:02):
and a half. I don't care about who's favorite in
this game. I'm not gonna bet one way or another.
I can see both teams winning this game and or covering.
But what I do see is over fifty two and
a half, I see fireworks on Sunday night. I see
two teams looking to take it to one another. The
Chiefs defense has been decent, but they are a little
bit more vulnerable than what we have seen the last

(49:23):
couple of years with Steve Spagnola, and like I said,
Detroit being their secondary so banged up. I think points
are going to be had here in this game. Any
of two offenses Humming Detroit is four and one against
the spread.

Speaker 1 (49:34):
Just fy.

Speaker 2 (49:35):
If you did want to bet on one team, I
probably would lean Detroit to be honest with you. They're
the more complete team at the moment. But it's the
Chiefs in Arrowhead and that's why I'm not going to
touch it. But I am going to touch these player props.
So I got Iman Ross Saint Brown because the Chiefs
have been very good against wide receivers. His line is

(49:56):
discounted at sixty nine and a half. I still haven't
rejected for eighty one point four. We can talk about
San Laporta getting involved. We could talk about when Jameis
and Williams is going to be involved and how consistently
those things are going to be. But what we don't
have to talk about is aman Ross Saint Brown and
when he'll be involved, because he's involved every single week.

(50:17):
The matter of this matchup, the matter of the situation.
He is one spot behind Pukaakua as far as fantasy
wide receivers this season.

Speaker 1 (50:26):
Give me the.

Speaker 2 (50:27):
Over on aman Ross Saint Brown at sixty nine and
a half, who's averaging eighty two point three yards over
the last three games to begin with.

Speaker 1 (50:37):
To begin with, all right, so we got a double
header on Monday night.

Speaker 2 (50:42):
By the way, another thing as an East Coast person
I hate. Can't stand it again, I can't wash The
second game is not all until you know ten o'clock
at night or whatever the case may be.

Speaker 1 (50:54):
Now, I think this.

Speaker 2 (50:55):
One is kind of like the last week's game, where
we have one at seven to fifteen and one at
eight to fifteen. Why why I have to have one
game and then have them an hour apart, like, yeah, okay,
for me, I have two TVs in my man game,
I could watch both at the same time. Not everyone's
set up that way. And even if you have the
TV and the phone going, like you want to watch

(51:16):
on the big screen, why I have to watch two
different games?

Speaker 1 (51:19):
This is dumb. Sunday's fine.

Speaker 2 (51:21):
We got red zone unless you're gonna bust out red
zone for the Monday night doubleheaders, which I mean ESPN
owns now so they technically could do that if they
wanted to. But unless you're going to do that.

Speaker 1 (51:30):
Like stop it. You're making it worse anyway.

Speaker 2 (51:33):
So you got the Bills and the Falcons at Atlanta,
and the Bills are favored at four and a half
points after losing at home to the Patriots, and now
they're going into Atlanta, they're favored at four and a half.
Guess what this means for me? Now, I don't have
the Falcons outright winning this game, but I do think
they cover a four and a half points. This is

(51:54):
gonna be a closer matchup than people think. Atlanta Falcons defense.
I don't think a lot of the public has caught
on to the fact that this is a decent defense
this year. This is not the Falcons defensive old. They
have athletes, and that's a bad thing for Buffalo because
they depend on Josh Allen and James Cook to bust
the big plays because it doesn't come from anywhere else.

(52:15):
Josh Allen plays Superman, James Cook bust a big run.
James Cook is going home, by the way, he did
play in Georgia. But the Falcons have been stingy against
running backs, like the number one team against running backs,
and they've been stinging against the wide receivers, especially with
a d Terrell playing now more towards his game.

Speaker 1 (52:36):
They've had a pass rush.

Speaker 2 (52:38):
The only thing about the Falcons that has been inconsistent
so far is the offense, and right before they went
to Dubai they kind of got going a little bit.
We'll see if that carries over. Their offensive line is
an issue and will be an issue against that Buffalo
Bill's pass rush. I can guarantee you that much. But
this game I think is going to be close. So
give me the Falcons the cover plus four and a half.

Speaker 1 (53:02):
Like it.

Speaker 2 (53:02):
Here's a prop for you that I like even more.
Bjeon Robinson Russian reception yards. I've been attacking Bijon's Russian
reception yards prop for as many weeks as I possibly can,
because he's just that all purpose back who's getting it done,
and you know he's gonna bust it either on the
ground or through the air. It's just coming. You just
don't know which one it's going to be. So take
the Russian reception yards and the line is a big one.

(53:24):
It's one hundred and fourteen and a half. I still
haven't projected for one hundred and forty six. Last three games,
he's average one hundred and fifty three point three combined yards,
So it's been there for him easily. And Buffalo's defense
isn't anything that you need to shy away from, especially

(53:45):
when it comes to the running backs. They're allowing about
ninety eight point eight rushing yards sixteen point six receiving yards,
so just their average two running backs would put him
over this line. And now you add in the fact
that it is Bjeon Robinson, I think he'll do just fine.

Speaker 1 (54:01):
All right.

Speaker 2 (54:01):
Last game on the week, we're going to talk about
the Bears and the Washington Commanders. The Commanders are favored
at home at four and a half points. That really
shouldn't come as a shock with an over under of
forty nine and a half, give me the over in
this ballgame. So the Bears right now are three and
one to the over Washington two and three. But also

(54:24):
remember they have Jayden Daniels back, so that's a little
bit different now than the Bears have one of the
worst defenses in the NFL. I know, right, the Ravens
and the Bears both have one of the worst defenses
in the NFL. Not something I'm used to saying, but
is totally true so far to this point in twenty
twenty five. Now this is another heavy game for props.

(54:48):
So Roman Dunza reception yards sixty six and a half.
The books just haven't caught up with the fact that
Roman Dunze has elevated his game and is the number
one wide receiver in Chicago on what is now a
good passing atten offense. So I got to projected for
seventy four. He's been averaging eighty six point three the
last three games that they've played. Their coming off the
bye week should have given even more time to prepare

(55:11):
for this matchup, and the Commanders are not a defense
that are impressive to.

Speaker 1 (55:14):
Me in any kind of capacity. They're not.

Speaker 2 (55:17):
They're old and young, explosive teams that are creative play
callers like Ben Johnson should have no time moving the
ball up and down on the team like this. And
if they are going to fall behind, and when Chicago's
defense the way it is, this could turn into a shootout.
There's gonna be passing galore all over the place. And
Roma Dunze is the only pass target I trust on

(55:38):
a week to week basis right now. Because it ain't
Dj Moore and ain't Cole Comet. It's not all it means.
The key is, it's definitely not Luther Burden like Roma
Dunze is the guy, period, So give me the over there.
I also have Gene Daniels over his passing yards prop.
It's only set at two hundred and seventeen and a half.

(56:00):
So here's the thing about Jayden Daniels. While he's still
not quite one hundred percent and I still don't think
he is in this game, he's gonna run less and
throw more. We kind of saw it last week when
he went for over two hundred and seventy yards last week.
So as long as that's gonna be the case, and
I do think it's the case for another week. Not
to mention that, even if it was in Chicago's defense,

(56:21):
is not a defense you have to fear throwing the football.
Even with no Terry McLaurin. I think Deebo Samuel and
the ragtag group behind him is enough for Jayden Daniels
to get over twohundred and seventeen and a half passing yards.
I haven't projected at two hundred and twenty one point three, which,
funny enough, has been his average the last three games anyway,

(56:41):
with Chicago allowing more than that per game regardless, that's
gonna wrap it up for the show. I really hope
you guys enjoyed it. Hope you line your pockets green
for yet another week. Make sure you're downloading Operation and
Domination on your favorite podcast app, and check out our
video content when you go to the Fantasy Football Advice

(57:02):
Network YouTube channel at FF advice Net. Good luck this weekend,
and I'll see you guys next week

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