October 28, 2024 • 8 mins
Tune in to learn about what happened last week in the Global Markets, and some major events happening this week to watch out for!
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Intro song game on.
Hello, everyone.
Welcome to paramount wealthperspectives.
Your go-to podcast for thelatest updates on global markets
and current economic events.
(00:21):
This is your host, Chris Coyle.
Each week we strive to bring youexpert analysis on market
trends, economic shifts.
And key financial developmentsfrom around the world.
Whether you're an investorbusiness leader.
Or simply curious about theglobal economy.
Our podcast is here to keep youinformed and ahead of the curve.
(00:41):
Now let's dive into the marketsand explore what shaping the
world of finance today.
Here with us today.
We have Scott Tremlett chiefinvestment officer and managing
partner at paramount associates,wealth management.
Scott looking back at last week,what are some major events you
would like to highlight?
Thanks Chris, last week, the Sand P 500 Dow Jones, industrial
(01:02):
average Russell, 2000 and mostinternational markets.
Fell from recent highs.
The NASDAQ and the Russell 1000growth ended the week, slightly
positive.
Treasury rates continue toclimb.
And the 10-year treasury yieldhas risen nearly 20% since the
federal reserve reduced rates.
By half a point last month.
(01:23):
That's interesting.
You said treasury rates haveincreased since the federal
reserve cut rates last month.
Why would that be?
There are several factors thatcan lead to rising rates.
I think this time it comes downto market expectations about
future fed actions.
Fed officials have stated that apause and rate cuts may be in
the cards at the next fedmeeting.
(01:45):
Coupling that with stickyinflation concerns, the
expectations for rapidreductions in the federal funds
rate have come down.
I do want to add that theexpectations coming down are due
to a stronger than expected useconomy.
Going into this year.
The U S face many uncertainties.
My main concern.
Was rising credit delinquencyrates paired with decreasing
(02:09):
personal savings rates.
I have been tracking thisclosely and thought that
consumer spending might slow.
And once again, I was remindedthat the one thing I should
count on is the Americanconsumer spending money.
There's definitely divergence ofwhat am I about to say?
However, the us consumer lookshealthy.
(02:31):
There is still more than one jobfor each job seeker.
And wages have increased yearover year for 17 straight
months.
Understood.
It sounds like overall theaverage us consumer is in a
pretty decent spot.
So you mentioned some economicdata and earnings were to be
reported last week.
(02:51):
What exactly did you see there?
Last Monday, the conferenceboard released the United States
leading economic indicatorsreport.
The indicators have beendeclining.
And including last month theyhave fallen over two and a half
percent over just the last sixmonths.
The conference board's points tous manufacturing as the biggest
(03:11):
drag.
And we knew manufacturing,factory orders, signal
uncertainty heading into 2025.
Us housing reports were mixedlast week.
However, the increasing interestrates may slow or even reverse
any positives that can be pulledfrom last week's announcements.
Jobless claims.
Fell below expectations.
(03:33):
The feds beige book, theycommented that inflation
continued to moderate overall.
But there were a few sources,upward price pressures,
including input prices forgoods, insurance, healthcare
costs.
And food.
Led by eggs and dairy.
Overall of the 12 districts, sixreported conditions that were
neither expanding orcontracting.
(03:55):
Three reported expansion.
And three report is slightdecreases in activity.
As for earnings.
Earnings have been mixed.
As of Friday, we had just overone third of the S and P 500
reporting.
They have reported year overyear earnings growth for the
fifth straight quarter.
But the S and P 500 had reportedits lowest year over year
(04:17):
earnings growth rates since thesecond quarter.
Of 2023.
So far financials and consumerdiscretion, they have led while
industrials, healthcare andenergy sectors have been the
biggest detractors.
Overall earnings growth has beenpositive.
At 3.6% versus the expected 4.3%going into the quarter.
(04:39):
Revenue growth is alsodeclining.
And as of last Friday, revenuegrowth is trailing both its
five-year and 10-year averages.
Bright side of that statement isif revenue growth continues as
more companies report.
This would mark the 10thconsecutive quarter of revenue
growth for the S and P 500.
(04:59):
Well, we will have to see if theSNP can continue its streak of
earnings and revenue growth.
what about consumer sentiment?
You had mentioned that lastweek.
Yes, Chris consumer sentimentwas reported last Friday and it
came in stronger than expected.
There was slight upwardmomentum, but it was really
(05:20):
restrained due to uncertaintiesabout inflation and the U S
presidential election.
I place special emphasis.
On the university of Michigan'sconsumer sentiment report.
Studies by Roger Ibbotson, whois a professor at the Yale
school of management.
Illustrate the biggestcontributor or detractor on
investment returns is actuallypopularity.
(05:43):
Traditionally marketparticipants expect that greater
risk equals greater returns.
Ibbotson's studies show thatreturns are not necessarily all
risk based.
His study shows that greaterreturns come stocks or
investments.
That have either grown out offavor or just wildly unpopular.
Ibbotson studied stockperformance from 1980 through
(06:05):
2016.
And found that the most popularstocks, average 7.67% per year.
while.
The stocks with the leastpopularity.
Average over 15% per year.
Wow.
That's quite a spread betweenaverage returns there.
What are you looking at thisweek?
Scott?
(06:26):
In the U S we have the S and P500 peak week of earnings with
over 160 S and P 500 companiesreporting.
From big tech to consumer nameslike visa and MasterCard.
Tomorrow we have the conferenceboard's consumer confidence and
the labor department's jobopenings report.
There are a handful of housingreports this week, including the
(06:48):
case, Shiller home price index.
Wednesday, we have a us GDPprint.
Jobless claims on Thursday,along with the Fed's preferred
inflation gauge PCE.
And Friday, we have payrollsways growth.
And a manufacturing number.
Outside of the U S Japanearnings start today.
And 60% of the Japanese marketwill report over the next two
(07:10):
weeks.
The bank of Japan also announceson Wednesday on its target rate
decision.
Is expected that they willmaintain current rates.
In Europe, we have economicsediment, uh, GDP flash report.
Unemployment and inflation.
Manufacturing numbers fromaround the globe start Thursday
was South Korea, Taiwan, andChina.
(07:32):
With India and the UK reportingmanufacturing on Friday.
Well, it sounds like we willhave plenty to discuss next
Monday.
For now.
Thanks for tuning into paramountwealth perspectives.
Stay informed.
Stay ahead.
And join us next week for morekey updates shaping the global
economy.
If you have any questions.
(07:54):
Please call us at seven two zeronine two one.
1000.
We're here to help educate ourcommunity.
Intro song game on.
Hello, everyone.
Welcome to paramount wealthperspectives.
Your go-to podcast for thelatest updates on global markets
and current economic events.
(00:21):
This is your host, Chris Coyle.
Each week we strive to bring youexpert analysis on market
trends, economic shifts.
And key financial developmentsfrom around the world.
Whether you're an investorbusiness leader.
Or simply curious about theglobal economy.
Our podcast is here to keep youinformed and ahead of the curve.
(00:41):
Now let's dive into the marketsand explore what shaping the
world of finance today.
Here with us today.
We have Scott Tremlett chiefinvestment officer and managing
partner at paramount associates,wealth management.
Scott looking back at last week,what are some major events you
would like to highlight?
Thanks Chris, last week, the Sand P 500 Dow Jones, industrial
(01:02):
average Russell, 2000 and mostinternational markets.
Fell from recent highs.
The NASDAQ and the Russell 1000growth ended the week, slightly
positive.
Treasury rates continue toclimb.
And the 10-year treasury yieldhas risen nearly 20% since the
federal reserve reduced rates.
By half a point last month.
(01:23):
That's interesting.
You said treasury rates haveincreased since the federal
reserve cut rates last month.
Why would that be?
There are several factors thatcan lead to rising rates.
I think this time it comes downto market expectations about
future fed actions.
Fed officials have stated that apause and rate cuts may be in
the cards at the next fedmeeting.
(01:45):
Coupling that with stickyinflation concerns, the
expectations for rapidreductions in the federal funds
rate have come down.
I do want to add that theexpectations coming down are due
to a stronger than expected useconomy.
Going into this year.
The U S face many uncertainties.
My main concern.
Was rising credit delinquencyrates paired with decreasing
(02:09):
personal savings rates.
I have been tracking thisclosely and thought that
consumer spending might slow.
And once again, I was remindedthat the one thing I should
count on is the Americanconsumer spending money.
There's definitely divergence ofwhat am I about to say?
However, the us consumer lookshealthy.
(02:31):
There is still more than one jobfor each job seeker.
And wages have increased yearover year for 17 straight
months.
Understood.
It sounds like overall theaverage us consumer is in a
pretty decent spot.
So you mentioned some economicdata and earnings were to be
reported last week.
(02:51):
What exactly did you see there?
Last Monday, the conferenceboard released the United States
leading economic indicatorsreport.
The indicators have beendeclining.
And including last month theyhave fallen over two and a half
percent over just the last sixmonths.
The conference board's points tous manufacturing as the biggest
(03:11):
drag.
And we knew manufacturing,factory orders, signal
uncertainty heading into 2025.
Us housing reports were mixedlast week.
However, the increasing interestrates may slow or even reverse
any positives that can be pulledfrom last week's announcements.
Jobless claims.
Fell below expectations.
(03:33):
The feds beige book, theycommented that inflation
continued to moderate overall.
But there were a few sources,upward price pressures,
including input prices forgoods, insurance, healthcare
costs.
And food.
Led by eggs and dairy.
Overall of the 12 districts, sixreported conditions that were
neither expanding orcontracting.
(03:55):
Three reported expansion.
And three report is slightdecreases in activity.
As for earnings.
Earnings have been mixed.
As of Friday, we had just overone third of the S and P 500
reporting.
They have reported year overyear earnings growth for the
fifth straight quarter.
But the S and P 500 had reportedits lowest year over year
(04:17):
earnings growth rates since thesecond quarter.
Of 2023.
So far financials and consumerdiscretion, they have led while
industrials, healthcare andenergy sectors have been the
biggest detractors.
Overall earnings growth has beenpositive.
At 3.6% versus the expected 4.3%going into the quarter.
(04:39):
Revenue growth is alsodeclining.
And as of last Friday, revenuegrowth is trailing both its
five-year and 10-year averages.
Bright side of that statement isif revenue growth continues as
more companies report.
This would mark the 10thconsecutive quarter of revenue
growth for the S and P 500.
(04:59):
Well, we will have to see if theSNP can continue its streak of
earnings and revenue growth.
what about consumer sentiment?
You had mentioned that lastweek.
Yes, Chris consumer sentimentwas reported last Friday and it
came in stronger than expected.
There was slight upwardmomentum, but it was really
(05:20):
restrained due to uncertaintiesabout inflation and the U S
presidential election.
I place special emphasis.
On the university of Michigan'sconsumer sentiment report.
Studies by Roger Ibbotson, whois a professor at the Yale
school of management.
Illustrate the biggestcontributor or detractor on
investment returns is actuallypopularity.
(05:43):
Traditionally marketparticipants expect that greater
risk equals greater returns.
Ibbotson's studies show thatreturns are not necessarily all
risk based.
His study shows that greaterreturns come stocks or
investments.
That have either grown out offavor or just wildly unpopular.
Ibbotson studied stockperformance from 1980 through
(06:05):
2016.
And found that the most popularstocks, average 7.67% per year.
while.
The stocks with the leastpopularity.
Average over 15% per year.
Wow.
That's quite a spread betweenaverage returns there.
What are you looking at thisweek?
Scott?
(06:26):
In the U S we have the S and P500 peak week of earnings with
over 160 S and P 500 companiesreporting.
From big tech to consumer nameslike visa and MasterCard.
Tomorrow we have the conferenceboard's consumer confidence and
the labor department's jobopenings report.
There are a handful of housingreports this week, including the
(06:48):
case, Shiller home price index.
Wednesday, we have a us GDPprint.
Jobless claims on Thursday,along with the Fed's preferred
inflation gauge PCE.
And Friday, we have payrollsways growth.
And a manufacturing number.
Outside of the U S Japanearnings start today.
And 60% of the Japanese marketwill report over the next two
(07:10):
weeks.
The bank of Japan also announceson Wednesday on its target rate
decision.
Is expected that they willmaintain current rates.
In Europe, we have economicsediment, uh, GDP flash report.
Unemployment and inflation.
Manufacturing numbers fromaround the globe start Thursday
was South Korea, Taiwan, andChina.
(07:32):
With India and the UK reportingmanufacturing on Friday.
Well, it sounds like we willhave plenty to discuss next
Monday.
For now.
Thanks for tuning into paramountwealth perspectives.
Stay informed.
Stay ahead.
And join us next week for morekey updates shaping the global
economy.
If you have any questions.
(07:54):
Please call us at seven two zeronine two one.
1000.
We're here to help educate ourcommunity.
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