Flying Through Market Turbulence: Tech Rallies, Tariff Shifts, and What’s Next for the Fed - 8/11/25

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In this episode of Paramount Wealth Perspectives, host Chris Coyle and Chief Investment Officer Scott Tremlett break down a pivotal week in the markets. From Apple’s $100 billion bet on U.S. manufacturing and Meta’s deepening AI investments to Nvidia’s record-breaking rally, we explore the tech sector’s powerful comeback. We also unpack the ripple effects of the highest U.S. tariff rates since the Great Depression, shifting global supply chains, and the subtle inflation pressures creeping into consumer prices.

Scott shares insights on a softer job market, the Fed’s delicate balancing act ahead of a likely September rate cut, and why earnings season has been strong but unforgiving. We also touch on gold’s record highs, oil’s recent pullback, and surprising moves in global trade data.

Whether you’re navigating AI-driven growth stories, assessing the impact of trade policy, or positioning for upcoming economic data, this episode offers clear, actionable perspective—plus why Scott says it’s time to “stay nimble” and keep some dry powder ready.

Episode Transcript

Chris Coyle (00:00):
Intro song
Hello everyone.
Welcome to Paramount WealthPerspectives, your go-to podcast
for the latest updates on globalmarkets and current economic
events.
This is your host, Chris Coyle.

(00:21):
I'm the marketing director and afinancial advisor here at
Paramount Associates WealthManagement.
And today I'm joined by ScottTremlett, chief Investment
Officer here at ParamountAssociates Wealth Management.
Alright, let's get into it.
The market wrapped up a strongweek.
What's the headline story inyour mind, Scott?
Thanks, Chris.
Last week's story was thecomeback in tech, no question.

(00:44):
Apple was the clear leaderjumping more than 13% after
announcing a hundred billiondollar investment in US
manufacturing.
This isn't just a headlinegrabber, it's really strategic
by producing more here at home.
They're securing tariffexemptions on some key chip
imports, and that's criticalgiven how trade policy has
shifted this year over.

(01:05):
At Meta, they're doubling downon AI with a proposed 10 billion
plus investment in scale AIsignaling that even social media
giants see AI infrastructure asa core pillar for future growth.
However, Nvidia once again stolethe show.
It Stocks soar to record highsafter securing US tariff
exemptions for semiconductorfirms that promise onshore

(01:28):
production.
It now holds the title as theworld's most valuable company,
highlighting the unique power ofAI driven chip makers.
And all this in a week wheretrade tensions kept heating up.
Exactly.
We now have the highesteffective US tariff rate since
the Great Depression era, thelatest round hit over 90

(01:49):
countries.
We're talking 50% on Brazil andIndia, and nearly 40% on
Switzerland.
Good news for China.
An extension was announced todayregarding today's China tariff
deadline.
The goal overall.
Is to bring manufacturing back,raise revenue, and narrow the
trade deficit on paper.
The deficit has improved downabout 10% last quarter, but it's

(02:12):
not an even story.
Most of the progress came fromreduced imports from China.
At the same time, deficits withcountries like Vietnam, Taiwan,
and Thailand have actuallygrown.
So you're saying the supplychains are just finding new
paths?
That's right.
It's like water flowing around arock.
Goods are still getting there,just rerouted through countries

(02:35):
facing lower tariffs.
This makes the headline deficitimprovement look better than the
actual underlying reality.
And while prices haven't jumpeddramatically.
We're starting to see hints oftariff related cost pressures in
certain product categories, andwhen costs start creeping up
quietly like that, it oftenbuilds up pressure, which brings

(02:55):
us to inflation.
It's one thing when the numbersmove on paper.
But another when they startshowing up on the grocery store
shelf.
Yes, Chris.
This consumer price index thisweek is going to be big.
Core inflation is expected tonudge higher as some of the
import costs work their way intoretail sales.
Gasoline has been a bit of arelief valve keeping headline

(03:17):
numbers in check, but householdgoods, electronics, and
recreational products.
Starting to see some pricecreep.
The longer tariffs stayelevated, the more likely those
costs hit the consumer directly.
True, and the Fed must jugglethat with a softer job market.
Absolutely.
July payrolls came in at just73,000.

(03:39):
Far below expectations andearlier months were revised down
by a combined 165,000 jobs.
Continuing job is, claims are attheir highest level since 2021.
That's why markets are nowpricing in about a 90% chance.
The Fed cuts rates in September,but it's really a tricky
balance.
Cut too soon and you riskfueling inflation way too long

(04:03):
and you risk letting the labormarket weaken further.
Now, if we step away from thebig picture, current events for
a moment and look inside theengine of the market earning
season has been stronger thanexpected.
And in some ways the story thereis just as compelling, much
stronger than expected as oflast Friday, about 90% of s and

(04:25):
p 500 companies have reported,and earnings growth is tracking
near 12% for the quarter.
More than double what analystswere expecting just a few months
ago.
Revenue growth has also beenpretty impressive.
With tech communication servicesand financials leading the way.
The interesting dynamic is howthe market is reacting to the
numbers.

(04:45):
Companies that beat expectationsaren't getting huge rewards in
their stock prices, but thosethat miss, they are being
punished heavily.
So I guess you could say themarket's in a quote unquote
prove it mood Exactly.
Investors want not just a goodquarter, but a great outlook.
And themes like artificialintelligence are still a huge

(05:06):
driver, especially in AIinfrastructure and software.
But hardware is more mixed withsome names facing stiffer
competition and narrow margins.
Let's shift gears becauseoutside of earnings, the
commodity space told its ownstory last week, almost like a
different market playing to adifferent rhythm.
Different rhythm.

(05:27):
Yes.
That's what they're playing.
It seemed gold surge to freshrecord.
Highs driven by safe haven.
Demand as price tensions andgeopolitical uncertainty start
to ramp up.
Oil on the other hand fell morethan 5% after OPEC plus signal
plans to ease production cutsstarting next month, the dollar
again weakened, which tends tohelp commodity prices broadly.

(05:49):
And Bitcoin rallied stronglymoving close to its all time
highs.
And what about globally?
Really globally right now?
The China data on trade hasreally caught my eye.
Both exports and imports grewfaster than expected in July,
but the context really matters.
A lot of that trade is movingindirectly through the countries

(06:12):
that can sidestep us.
Tariffs.
In Europe, bond markets areshowing unusual calm yield
spreads between core andperipheral.
economies are the narrowestthey've been in decades.
That reflects stronger fiscaldiscipline.
Do Francis Rising Deficit isstarting to be a bit of a
growing concern.
From the sound of it, this isn'tshaping up to be a quiet stretch

(06:34):
at all.
In fact, it sounds like the nextweek is stacked with data and
events that could move marketsin a heartbeat.
Without question, the the bigones really are CPI, consumer
inflation in the US and PPI,producer inflation in the US for
July.
Any surprises in those numbers,could really shift fed
expectations in a big way.

(06:55):
And on the geopolitical side,the Trump Putin meeting is set
for later this week.
Add to that retail sales andconsumer sentiment, and you've
got a lot of moving parts thatcould push markets around
quickly.
Got it.
So overall, what's your advicefor investors right now?
Scott, stay nimble.
This is a market where you wantto be selective.

(07:16):
Focus on high quality growthnames with strong balance
sheets, but keep someflexibility.
Headlines could shift sentimentin a heartbeat, so having some
dry powder to invest may provevaluable.
Think of it as flying throughthe air with turbulence,
seatbelt, fastened, eyesforward, but ready to adjust

(07:36):
your course when the sky'sclear.
Well, thank you, Scott, fortaking the time to share your
thoughts.
Thank you to our audience fortuning in, and remember to
please submit your questions viaemail to
[e-mail].
For now, stay informed.
Stay ahead.
And join us next time for morekey updates shaping the global

(07:59):
economy.