November 18, 2025 • 13 mins
In this episode of Paramount Wealth Perspectives, host Chris Coyle and Chief Investment Officer Scott Tremlett break down a deceptively calm week in the markets and reveal the powerful sector rotations happening beneath the surface. From healthcare’s surge to discretionary’s slump, we explore what these moves say about consumer strength, investor sentiment, and the widening financial divide.
We unpack the macro chaos following the record-breaking government shutdown, the Fed’s shifting tone, and the long-awaited return of crucial economic data—including the September jobs report and retailer earnings from Walmart, Target, and Home Depot. Chris and Scott also dig into global trends across Europe, the UK, Japan, and emerging markets, and close with a rapid-fire lightning round covering the key risks, opportunities, and market signals to watch as we head toward 2026.
Stay informed. Stay ahead. And get the perspective you need to navigate an increasingly complex global economy.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Chris Coyle (00:00):
Intro song
Hello everyone.
Welcome to Paramount WealthPerspectives, your go-to podcast
for the latest updates on globalmarkets and current economic
events.
This is your host, Chris Coyle.
(00:21):
I am the market director and anadvisor here at Paramount
Associates Wealth Management,and today I'm joined by our
Chief Investment Officer, ScottTremlett.
Let's walk through the firsthalf of last week because even
though the headline numbers werequiet, the underlying tone
really shifted.
Markets looked calm on thesurface.
But sector moves, certainly werenot.
(00:42):
What stood out to you?
Well, we basically had a flatmarket that felt anything but
that.
The s and p had a small gain,but beneath the surface, the
rotation was evident.
Healthcare ripped almost 4%energy gain, more than 2% in
consumer discretionary fellnearly 3%.
What we're seeing there isn'tjust market noise, it is the
(01:05):
widening separation betweenthose who still feel financially
secure and those who don't.
Higher incomes are stillspending, but are dialing it
back some.
As the volatility in stocks risewhile lower income households
we're tightening alreadytogether, that shaping the
spending picture right now.
High beta names, retailfavorites, and anything
(01:27):
speculative so meaningfuldrawdowns over the last four to
six weeks, and interest ratesare still cooling spending in
some circumstances.
That vibe feeds directly intoweaker spending confidence.
The other big theme from lastweek was just how much macro
noise investors had to digest.
(01:48):
Between the end of the shutdown,the data backlog, and the fed
chatter, there was a lot hittingat once.
How did you make sense of it?
Well layer that onto the recordbreaking 43 day government
shutdown, and You had a muddledbackdrop.
The shutdown didn't just delaymajor data.
It's disrupting the datacollection itself.
(02:09):
The CBO estimates about$15billion in GDP just evaporated
and markets had to digest theidea that even the data we
eventually get may becompromised still.
Once the shutdown ended, themarket's attention went right to
the Fed.
December cut odds fell to near50% as officials question
(02:29):
whether cutting into 3%inflation would risk losing
progress on that front.
That hawkish lean sparked lastweek's selloff and temporarily
cooled enthusiasm for the megacap stocks globally.
Europe had a strong week.
The stock 600 up almost 2%.
Japan's markets also gain nearly2% on solid corporate earnings
(02:51):
and yields drifted higher.
The 10 year treasury at about4.15%.
Not dramatic, but enough tocreate a little pressure and
remind everyone rates aren'tdone mattering yet.
Now as we turn the page to thisweek, the tone feels totally
different.
After weeks of speculation andpiecing together estimates, we
finally get hard data again.
(03:13):
Walk us through what mattersmost over the next few days.
Yeah.
Finally, real data.
The September jobs report hitsmore than a month late.
The market's been operating withone eye closed for weeks now.
This helps reopen it, and whenwe get the retailers.
Walmart, target, home Depot.
That's the heartbeat of the USconsumer.
(03:34):
Their commentary will revealmore about the fourth quarter
behavior than any governmentsurvey.
Right now.
The question is simple.
Is the consumer bending orbreaking?
We have Nvidia too huge forsentiment, but I'd argue
retailers drive the macro whileNvidia drives the narrative.
We know the numbers will beunreal for Nvidia.
(03:54):
Plus this is a week packed withfed speakers.
Almost the entire roster is onstage.
Markets are listening for evenslight hints about December.
Remember, the tone has turnedmore cautious globally.
Europe brings consumer inflationservices and manufacturing
numbers and consumer confidence.
(04:15):
The UK releases inflation withunemployment heading near 5%,
and in Canada, inflation, Japan,GDP and Hong Kong, CPI, and
you've got global data coming infast.
All of it matters because thelast six weeks were driven
mostly by vibes.
Now we finally get stats.
(04:35):
Let's step back and look at thebroader earnings picture,
because we're now at the pointwhere the narrative is fully
formed.
The season was busy, it wasnoisy, and it was surprisingly
strong in a few areas.
How do you interpret what we'veseen?
Well, we're past the 90% mark,and the takeaway is better than
expected.
Blended s and p earnings growthis around 13%, up from 8%
(04:59):
expectation heading into theseason.
Beat rates look strong.
Over 80% on earnings per share.
Mid seventies on sales sectordispersion matters though
healthcare absolutely crushed itwith almost a 10% average
operating profit.
Beat tech was close behind withroughly 6% materials, also
(05:20):
posted solid numbers.
Meanwhile, services insideconsumer discretionary
struggled.
There was soft foot traffic,softer pricing power, and signs
that the post pandemic demandsurge is starting to fade.
Even cruise operators, whichusually flex pricing power
guided weaker on yield growththis week, is the cleanup crew,
(05:40):
but it's meaningful earningsfrom Walmart.
Target, home Depot, Lowe's, TJX,Medtronic, Palo Alto, BJ's,
Intuit, and of course Nvidia.
Walmart is the swing boat forthe macro narrative.
Nvidia is a swing boat forsentiment.
Both will move markets fordifferent reasons.
(06:00):
The Fed storyline keeps evolvingand it feels like every week the
tone shifts just a little morebetween inflation sticking near
3% and the uncertainty createdby the shutdown.
There's a lot for markets todigest.
What's your read on where theystand?
Well, we've clearly shifted.
Away from a December cut,confidence inflation hovers
(06:21):
around 3%, where they look atnow casting or economist
surveys, and that createshesitation.
Several fed members have openlysaid they'd rather wait for
cleaner data after the shutdown,and this shutdown wasn't trivi.
Some agencies couldn't collector even verify any data, which
means the Fed is essentiallyflying with incomplete stats.
(06:45):
Labor cooling helps the case forcuts, but not enough yet.
The Fed's internal divide iswidening.
You've got one camp wanting topush ahead with cuts, and the
other saying.
Let's get the 2% inflationbefore we celebrate markets.
Still price in about 0.8% ofcuts through 2026, but timing is
now the entire story.
(07:05):
Also, the funding bill expiresJanuary 30th.
Believe it or not, anotherpolitical showdown in early
first quarter is absolutelypossible, and the Fed knows it.
Europe doesn't get the sameattention as the United States.
But last week, the data comingout of the region's surprise to
the upside.
Growth was revised higherinflation is moderating, and
(07:27):
sentiment is stabilizing.
What's happening there?
Well, Europe actually posted asurprisingly constructive
outlook.
The European Commission upgraded2025 growth to 1.3% and sees
inflation tracking towards that2% number.
Remember, listeners numbersreally mean something as a
change in percentage versusexpectations, sometimes not just
(07:49):
the number itself, and they'vereally survived the tariff
volatility better than expected.
Front loaded exports helped.
Fiscal spending helped and thelabor market stayed tight.
Spain and France grew fasterthan the region overall.
Germany and Italy basicallystalled, but are expected to
close that gap next year.
And the ECBs tone has reallyimproved.
(08:10):
They're not eager to cut moreunless something breaks.
Markets follow that tone.
German BUN yields moved higher.
The region isn't booming, butit's stabilizing in a world
where stability is scarce, thatdoes have value.
Now, let's zoom out withearnings wrapping up, economic
data normalizing and policypaths becoming clearer.
(08:33):
Investors are naturally askingwhat next year might look like.
What's your base case going into2026?
Well, the near term outlook isactually improving across the
board.
Some analysts see the s and p500 rising nearly 15% over the
next year.
Those would say that we're inthe early innings of a new
earning cycle built on AI drivenefficiency, stable rates, and a
(08:57):
friendlier policy backdrop.
Meanwhile, others are moreneutral, long term, projecting
less than half of that for us,equity returns over the next
decade.
Both sides will probably lookright at different times, but if
you're balancing the exposureover a period between the US and
international markets, I'd putit closer to 15%.
(09:18):
And remember, both sides in thatdebate are still expecting
emerging markets growth north of10% from a macro standpoint.
The shutdowns lost output doesmatter, but much of the
government spending backlog getspushed into the first quarter of
next year.
So you could see stronger earlyyear GDP prints as delayed
activity.
Normalizes the risks to me,consumer fatigue, another
(09:42):
funding shutdown, and globalpolicy missteps.
But the base case issurprisingly constructive.
Alright, let's move on to thelightning round.
Scott, December Cut.
Well, odds are fading.
Inflation's sticky, and the Fedwants cleaner data, but probably
(10:03):
key earnings this week.
Walmart, the read through on thelow income consumer is the
single most important macro datapoint, but NVIDIA may mean more
for markets due to the economiesof scale.
Top data release, definitely theSeptember jobs report.
It finally resets that labornarrative.
(10:23):
What is the strongest sectorright now trading wise?
That would be healthcare earningstrength, defensive appeal,
remember that and technicalfollow through.
What about the weakest?
Definitely consumerdiscretionary, that wealth
effect, drag and soft foottraffic are hurting.
What will be the NVIDIA result?
(10:43):
Likely an earnings beat, butit's the guidance that really
moves the stock.
I think it'll all be great, butthe market may just want more.
What about Europe next quarter?
Slight upside Stability there isimproving faster than anyone
expected.
What do you predict yields willbe by year end?
Slightly lower as shut down,distortions clear maybe.
(11:07):
What about oil next month,roughly?
Flat, around 60 bucks.
Uh, supply and demand is fairlybalanced there.
How about the gold trend stillupward to sideways?
It definitely thrives inuncertainty and, and we do have
plenty of that.
Is AI trade too crowded?
You can make an argument thatthe front end is crowded, but
(11:28):
the second tier plays are stillunderappreciated in my mind.
The consumer bending or breakingbending now, but the bifurcation
makes the numbers more positive.
What will be the strongestregion next year?
I think emerging markets, youknow, the valuations are still
discounted, earning cycles areimproving, and policy support is
(11:49):
building across key countrieslike China.
And what about a surprising,weak region point?
I would say Japan, uh, it cameinto the year with some of the
highest expectations, but thefollow through just isn't there
relative to what the market waspricing in.
Most mispriced asset class.
I would say this most times andmost times it's mid-cap stocks.
(12:10):
They're overlooked and primedfor re-rating.
If earnings hold the biggesttail risk, well believe it or
not, a January governmentfunding fight that would rattle
that first quarter.
In your opinion?
Biggest upside wild card, afirst quarter GDP Pop as delayed
spending hits all at once.
How about a soft landing?
(12:30):
We're there, the baseline issoft, but there are definitely
some pockets of stress showing.
Volatility ahead.
Absolutely.
Volatility will be elevated.
There's just too muchuncertainty for a volatility
collapse.
One chart that matters most tome, that would be the consumer
discretionary stocks versus theoverall market.
(12:51):
It's the cleanest early warningsignal for fatigue in demand.
Well, thanks Scott.
I appreciate the insight.
Sure thing, Chris.
We'll catch you next time.
I also want to thank ouraudience for tuning in and
remember to please submit yourquestions via email to
general@paramountassoc.com.
For now, stay informed.
(13:12):
Stay ahead and join us next timefor more key updates shaping the
global economy.
Intro song
Hello everyone.
Welcome to Paramount WealthPerspectives, your go-to podcast
for the latest updates on globalmarkets and current economic
events.
This is your host, Chris Coyle.
(00:21):
I am the market director and anadvisor here at Paramount
Associates Wealth Management,and today I'm joined by our
Chief Investment Officer, ScottTremlett.
Let's walk through the firsthalf of last week because even
though the headline numbers werequiet, the underlying tone
really shifted.
Markets looked calm on thesurface.
But sector moves, certainly werenot.
(00:42):
What stood out to you?
Well, we basically had a flatmarket that felt anything but
that.
The s and p had a small gain,but beneath the surface, the
rotation was evident.
Healthcare ripped almost 4%energy gain, more than 2% in
consumer discretionary fellnearly 3%.
What we're seeing there isn'tjust market noise, it is the
(01:05):
widening separation betweenthose who still feel financially
secure and those who don't.
Higher incomes are stillspending, but are dialing it
back some.
As the volatility in stocks risewhile lower income households
we're tightening alreadytogether, that shaping the
spending picture right now.
High beta names, retailfavorites, and anything
(01:27):
speculative so meaningfuldrawdowns over the last four to
six weeks, and interest ratesare still cooling spending in
some circumstances.
That vibe feeds directly intoweaker spending confidence.
The other big theme from lastweek was just how much macro
noise investors had to digest.
(01:48):
Between the end of the shutdown,the data backlog, and the fed
chatter, there was a lot hittingat once.
How did you make sense of it?
Well layer that onto the recordbreaking 43 day government
shutdown, and You had a muddledbackdrop.
The shutdown didn't just delaymajor data.
It's disrupting the datacollection itself.
(02:09):
The CBO estimates about$15billion in GDP just evaporated
and markets had to digest theidea that even the data we
eventually get may becompromised still.
Once the shutdown ended, themarket's attention went right to
the Fed.
December cut odds fell to near50% as officials question
(02:29):
whether cutting into 3%inflation would risk losing
progress on that front.
That hawkish lean sparked lastweek's selloff and temporarily
cooled enthusiasm for the megacap stocks globally.
Europe had a strong week.
The stock 600 up almost 2%.
Japan's markets also gain nearly2% on solid corporate earnings
(02:51):
and yields drifted higher.
The 10 year treasury at about4.15%.
Not dramatic, but enough tocreate a little pressure and
remind everyone rates aren'tdone mattering yet.
Now as we turn the page to thisweek, the tone feels totally
different.
After weeks of speculation andpiecing together estimates, we
finally get hard data again.
(03:13):
Walk us through what mattersmost over the next few days.
Yeah.
Finally, real data.
The September jobs report hitsmore than a month late.
The market's been operating withone eye closed for weeks now.
This helps reopen it, and whenwe get the retailers.
Walmart, target, home Depot.
That's the heartbeat of the USconsumer.
(03:34):
Their commentary will revealmore about the fourth quarter
behavior than any governmentsurvey.
Right now.
The question is simple.
Is the consumer bending orbreaking?
We have Nvidia too huge forsentiment, but I'd argue
retailers drive the macro whileNvidia drives the narrative.
We know the numbers will beunreal for Nvidia.
(03:54):
Plus this is a week packed withfed speakers.
Almost the entire roster is onstage.
Markets are listening for evenslight hints about December.
Remember, the tone has turnedmore cautious globally.
Europe brings consumer inflationservices and manufacturing
numbers and consumer confidence.
(04:15):
The UK releases inflation withunemployment heading near 5%,
and in Canada, inflation, Japan,GDP and Hong Kong, CPI, and
you've got global data coming infast.
All of it matters because thelast six weeks were driven
mostly by vibes.
Now we finally get stats.
(04:35):
Let's step back and look at thebroader earnings picture,
because we're now at the pointwhere the narrative is fully
formed.
The season was busy, it wasnoisy, and it was surprisingly
strong in a few areas.
How do you interpret what we'veseen?
Well, we're past the 90% mark,and the takeaway is better than
expected.
Blended s and p earnings growthis around 13%, up from 8%
(04:59):
expectation heading into theseason.
Beat rates look strong.
Over 80% on earnings per share.
Mid seventies on sales sectordispersion matters though
healthcare absolutely crushed itwith almost a 10% average
operating profit.
Beat tech was close behind withroughly 6% materials, also
(05:20):
posted solid numbers.
Meanwhile, services insideconsumer discretionary
struggled.
There was soft foot traffic,softer pricing power, and signs
that the post pandemic demandsurge is starting to fade.
Even cruise operators, whichusually flex pricing power
guided weaker on yield growththis week, is the cleanup crew,
(05:40):
but it's meaningful earningsfrom Walmart.
Target, home Depot, Lowe's, TJX,Medtronic, Palo Alto, BJ's,
Intuit, and of course Nvidia.
Walmart is the swing boat forthe macro narrative.
Nvidia is a swing boat forsentiment.
Both will move markets fordifferent reasons.
(06:00):
The Fed storyline keeps evolvingand it feels like every week the
tone shifts just a little morebetween inflation sticking near
3% and the uncertainty createdby the shutdown.
There's a lot for markets todigest.
What's your read on where theystand?
Well, we've clearly shifted.
Away from a December cut,confidence inflation hovers
(06:21):
around 3%, where they look atnow casting or economist
surveys, and that createshesitation.
Several fed members have openlysaid they'd rather wait for
cleaner data after the shutdown,and this shutdown wasn't trivi.
Some agencies couldn't collector even verify any data, which
means the Fed is essentiallyflying with incomplete stats.
(06:45):
Labor cooling helps the case forcuts, but not enough yet.
The Fed's internal divide iswidening.
You've got one camp wanting topush ahead with cuts, and the
other saying.
Let's get the 2% inflationbefore we celebrate markets.
Still price in about 0.8% ofcuts through 2026, but timing is
now the entire story.
(07:05):
Also, the funding bill expiresJanuary 30th.
Believe it or not, anotherpolitical showdown in early
first quarter is absolutelypossible, and the Fed knows it.
Europe doesn't get the sameattention as the United States.
But last week, the data comingout of the region's surprise to
the upside.
Growth was revised higherinflation is moderating, and
(07:27):
sentiment is stabilizing.
What's happening there?
Well, Europe actually posted asurprisingly constructive
outlook.
The European Commission upgraded2025 growth to 1.3% and sees
inflation tracking towards that2% number.
Remember, listeners numbersreally mean something as a
change in percentage versusexpectations, sometimes not just
(07:49):
the number itself, and they'vereally survived the tariff
volatility better than expected.
Front loaded exports helped.
Fiscal spending helped and thelabor market stayed tight.
Spain and France grew fasterthan the region overall.
Germany and Italy basicallystalled, but are expected to
close that gap next year.
And the ECBs tone has reallyimproved.
(08:10):
They're not eager to cut moreunless something breaks.
Markets follow that tone.
German BUN yields moved higher.
The region isn't booming, butit's stabilizing in a world
where stability is scarce, thatdoes have value.
Now, let's zoom out withearnings wrapping up, economic
data normalizing and policypaths becoming clearer.
(08:33):
Investors are naturally askingwhat next year might look like.
What's your base case going into2026?
Well, the near term outlook isactually improving across the
board.
Some analysts see the s and p500 rising nearly 15% over the
next year.
Those would say that we're inthe early innings of a new
earning cycle built on AI drivenefficiency, stable rates, and a
(08:57):
friendlier policy backdrop.
Meanwhile, others are moreneutral, long term, projecting
less than half of that for us,equity returns over the next
decade.
Both sides will probably lookright at different times, but if
you're balancing the exposureover a period between the US and
international markets, I'd putit closer to 15%.
(09:18):
And remember, both sides in thatdebate are still expecting
emerging markets growth north of10% from a macro standpoint.
The shutdowns lost output doesmatter, but much of the
government spending backlog getspushed into the first quarter of
next year.
So you could see stronger earlyyear GDP prints as delayed
activity.
Normalizes the risks to me,consumer fatigue, another
(09:42):
funding shutdown, and globalpolicy missteps.
But the base case issurprisingly constructive.
Alright, let's move on to thelightning round.
Scott, December Cut.
Well, odds are fading.
Inflation's sticky, and the Fedwants cleaner data, but probably
(10:03):
key earnings this week.
Walmart, the read through on thelow income consumer is the
single most important macro datapoint, but NVIDIA may mean more
for markets due to the economiesof scale.
Top data release, definitely theSeptember jobs report.
It finally resets that labornarrative.
(10:23):
What is the strongest sectorright now trading wise?
That would be healthcare earningstrength, defensive appeal,
remember that and technicalfollow through.
What about the weakest?
Definitely consumerdiscretionary, that wealth
effect, drag and soft foottraffic are hurting.
What will be the NVIDIA result?
(10:43):
Likely an earnings beat, butit's the guidance that really
moves the stock.
I think it'll all be great, butthe market may just want more.
What about Europe next quarter?
Slight upside Stability there isimproving faster than anyone
expected.
What do you predict yields willbe by year end?
Slightly lower as shut down,distortions clear maybe.
(11:07):
What about oil next month,roughly?
Flat, around 60 bucks.
Uh, supply and demand is fairlybalanced there.
How about the gold trend stillupward to sideways?
It definitely thrives inuncertainty and, and we do have
plenty of that.
Is AI trade too crowded?
You can make an argument thatthe front end is crowded, but
(11:28):
the second tier plays are stillunderappreciated in my mind.
The consumer bending or breakingbending now, but the bifurcation
makes the numbers more positive.
What will be the strongestregion next year?
I think emerging markets, youknow, the valuations are still
discounted, earning cycles areimproving, and policy support is
(11:49):
building across key countrieslike China.
And what about a surprising,weak region point?
I would say Japan, uh, it cameinto the year with some of the
highest expectations, but thefollow through just isn't there
relative to what the market waspricing in.
Most mispriced asset class.
I would say this most times andmost times it's mid-cap stocks.
(12:10):
They're overlooked and primedfor re-rating.
If earnings hold the biggesttail risk, well believe it or
not, a January governmentfunding fight that would rattle
that first quarter.
In your opinion?
Biggest upside wild card, afirst quarter GDP Pop as delayed
spending hits all at once.
How about a soft landing?
(12:30):
We're there, the baseline issoft, but there are definitely
some pockets of stress showing.
Volatility ahead.
Absolutely.
Volatility will be elevated.
There's just too muchuncertainty for a volatility
collapse.
One chart that matters most tome, that would be the consumer
discretionary stocks versus theoverall market.
(12:51):
It's the cleanest early warningsignal for fatigue in demand.
Well, thanks Scott.
I appreciate the insight.
Sure thing, Chris.
We'll catch you next time.
I also want to thank ouraudience for tuning in and
remember to please submit yourquestions via email to
general@paramountassoc.com.
For now, stay informed.
(13:12):
Stay ahead and join us next timefor more key updates shaping the
global economy.
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