July 14, 2025 • 9 mins
In this episode of Paramount Wealth Perspectives, host Chris Coyle sits down with Scott Tremlett, Chief Investment Officer at Paramount Associates Wealth Management, to unpack the most pressing themes shaping today’s global markets. From the evolving role of artificial intelligence and the rise of sovereign clouds, to the renewed emphasis on value investing and the impact of new tariffs—this episode explores it all.
Chris and Scott dive into current market dynamics, including the outlook for inflation, shifts in sector leadership, international equity momentum, and how investors can navigate macroeconomic uncertainty with a focus on balance, flexibility, and quality. Whether you're watching CPI prints, earnings season forecasts, or the future of interest rates, this episode provides strategic insights and timely perspectives to help you stay ahead.
Tune in to hear how real-time, data-driven decisions and diversified positioning can drive long-term success in today’s ever-shifting investment landscape.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Chris Coyle (00:00):
Intro song
Hello everyone.
Welcome to Paramount WealthPerspectives, your go-to podcast
for the latest updates on globalmarkets and current economic
events.
(00:20):
This is your host, Chris Coyle.
I'm the marketing director and afinancial advisor here at
Paramount Associates WealthManagement.
And today I'm joined by ScottTremlett, chief Investment
Officer here at ParamountAssociates Wealth Management.
Today I've prepared severalquestions that I'm excited to
hear Scott's answers andopinions to.
Let's begin with artificialintelligence.
(00:40):
Artificial intelligence remainsa dominant theme.
What are the most importantdevelopments investors should
track right now?
Absolutely.
Chris, A dominant theme, and Iam watching three major shifts
in ai.
First.
Companies are focusing onconnecting all of their data.
Things like sales numbers,customer calls and documents,
(01:02):
all into one system.
This makes it easier to automatetasks and get clear insights
across their business.
Second geopolitical tensions arefeeling demand for what would be
called sovereign.
Clouds.
A sovereign cloud is a cloudcomputing system that ensures
all data is stored, processed,and managed within a specific
(01:24):
country's borders and legaljurisdiction complying with
local data, privacy, security,and regulatory requirements.
Enterprises want to ensure datasovereignty, and this is
shifting infrastructure fromglobal to regional, especially
across Europe and Asia.
Finally, efficiency matters morethan.
(01:44):
Ever we're seeing a pivot awayfrom giant AI models to leaner,
specialized, more efficient ai,which is seen as lower cost,
more scalable, and even greener.
These developments position AIas an engine for long-term
growth and productivity and notjust a novelty.
Absolutely.
I couldn't agree more, Scott.
(02:05):
Those shifts are spot on.
The push toward unifiedintelligence and sovereign cloud
solutions is transforming howbusinesses think about and
control compliance.
I love, and I love your point onmoving toward more efficient
specialized ai.
It's exactly where long-termvalue and sustainability
intersect.
Now, let's turn to the marketsInflation, tariffs, rate cuts.
(02:28):
There's a lot swirling.
What should investors focus on?
Well, it's really a tug of warright now.
On one side, we've got newtariffs pushing input costs
higher, particularly in keycommodities like copper.
On the other, we're seeingresilient economic data, strong
jobless claims, improvingconsumer metrics, and the new
(02:49):
big, beautiful bill.
Which may reduce corporate taxrates to 12% and potentially
boost GDP into 2026.
The consumer price index or CPIis front and center.
The June print is expected at2.6% year over year.
Slightly up from May, and ifthis is confirmed, that would be
(03:09):
the highest since February andmarket consecutive, consecutive
monthly rise.
That announcement for all thatare listening is coming to us
tomorrow.
Yet markets are not yet pricingin the full impact of these
tariff headwinds.
But inflation swaps or contractswhere two parties exchanged
payments linked to the consumerprice index are telling us that
(03:32):
investors are expecting CPI topotentially rise as high as 3.3%
by next summer.
Over the last few days, we havealso heard new tariffs.
New news on tariffs with Canada,Brazil, and other countries in
the crosshairs of theadministration.
We'll see if these lead tonegotiations or actually become
(03:52):
reality in the coming weeks.
And don't forget about earningseason.
Which is opening this week, andanalysts are forecasting second
quarter earnings for all s and p500 companies to rise by an
average about 4.8% overall.
If that does turn out to be theactual rate, it would be the
slowest earnings growth sincethe fourth quarter of 2023.
(04:16):
We'll see if earnings growthdoes slow to this level or if it
proves to be a low bar to beat,and markets actually rally by
beating expectations.
Yeah, it really does feel like atug of war between macro
pressure and market optimism.
Tariffs and rising CPIexpectations are definitely
creating headwinds, but strongeconomic data and the potential
(04:40):
for tax reform are keepingsentiment afloat.
Like you said, earning seasoncould be that swing factor that
either confirms the slowdown orsurprises to the upside.
So how's the equity marketabsorbing these signals?
Any rotations or tacticalshifts?
Definitely some rotations.
Uh, last week, small cap valuestocks and defensive sectors
(05:03):
like energy, utilities, andindustrials led performance.
While growth and momentum took abreather for the week, what I'm
seeing is a shift towardsquality, value, and defensive
equity sectors.
As earning season kicks off,fundamentals are beginning to
matter again.
In fact, five of the 11 s and p500 sectors are actually
(05:27):
expected to show negativeearnings growth in the second
quarter, i'm also watching themomentum factor fade.
It's still the top performeryear to date, but the recent
volatility suggests investorsmay take profits and stocks that
have outrun their fundamentals.
Yeah, absolutely.
The pivot toward quality andvalue is becoming more evident,
(05:50):
especially as fundamentals startto retake the spotlight.
With defensive sectors steppingup and momentum showing signs of
fatigue, it's clear thatinvestors are recalibrating
ahead of what could be a pivotalearning season.
So what's the global picture?
Any signals from internationalmarkets that should guide our
(06:10):
thinking.
Yes, and some are actually quitepositive.
The Eurozone s Cix ConfidenceIndex surge just surged to a two
year high and Eurozone.
Economic data continues to beatexpectations.
China's inflation remainssubdued.
CPI at 0.1% and.
PPI or the producer inflation isactually down 3.6% year over
(06:35):
year, but that opens the doorfor further stimulus in China,
which could support emergingmarket assets.
Despite the tariff concerns, theUS dollar has stabilized after a
tough first half, clawing back1% so far in July.
That matters, especially forinternational equities, which
(06:55):
have had a strong run,particularly the MSCI.
EFA Index, even though itsearnings growth, expectations
are modest.
At best.
I concur.
There are some encouraging signsglobally, the boost in Eurozone
sentiment and China's potentialfor added stimulus give
international markets atailwind.
And with the dollar stabilizingit creates a more favorable
(07:19):
backdrop for overseas, uh,equities, even if earnings
expectations remain modest.
Okay.
Final thought.
How should our clients positionportfolios right now?
I am emphasizing balance,flexibility, and quality in
equities.
I favor companies with strongpricing power.
Cash flow, visibility and marginprotection.
(07:42):
Think infrastructure,cybersecurity, and selective
healthcare, and I'm overweightinternationally as stronger
momentum supportive centralbanks and lower valuations.
Make a compelling case foroutperformance to continue on
the fixed income side.
Intermediate duration,municipals and corporates are
(08:02):
becoming more attractive withthe 10 year treasury yielding
now over 4.4%.
I'm still using infrastructureinvestments in lieu of bonds in
many cases, but there will be atime when the Fed will help
interest rates to come down.
And in turn, createopportunities for bounds to
perform well in alternatives.
Like I said, infrastructure,private equity and private
(08:26):
credit are performing well withlimited downside volatility and
don't ignore cash withshort-term rates still elevated
money markets remain smart,plays for liquidity management.
It's momentum that rewards.
Active risk management.
Resilience is strong, but policysignals are mixed.
(08:47):
That's why real time data-drivendecisions matter more than ever.
No question.
That's a smart framework fornavigating this kind of market,
emphasizing quality in equities,staying nimble in fixed income,
and leveraging alternatives likeinfrastructure and private
credit.
It offers the kind ofdiversification and downside
(09:09):
protection that's absolutelycritical when policy direction
is uncertain.
Well, thank you, Scott, fortaking the time to share your
thoughts.
Thank you to our audience fortuning in, and please remember,
if you have a question you wouldlike to hear our opinion on,
please submit them togeneral@paramountassoc.com.
(09:29):
For now, stay informed.
Stay ahead.
And join us next time for morekey updates shaping the global
economy.
Intro song
Hello everyone.
Welcome to Paramount WealthPerspectives, your go-to podcast
for the latest updates on globalmarkets and current economic
events.
(00:20):
This is your host, Chris Coyle.
I'm the marketing director and afinancial advisor here at
Paramount Associates WealthManagement.
And today I'm joined by ScottTremlett, chief Investment
Officer here at ParamountAssociates Wealth Management.
Today I've prepared severalquestions that I'm excited to
hear Scott's answers andopinions to.
Let's begin with artificialintelligence.
(00:40):
Artificial intelligence remainsa dominant theme.
What are the most importantdevelopments investors should
track right now?
Absolutely.
Chris, A dominant theme, and Iam watching three major shifts
in ai.
First.
Companies are focusing onconnecting all of their data.
Things like sales numbers,customer calls and documents,
(01:02):
all into one system.
This makes it easier to automatetasks and get clear insights
across their business.
Second geopolitical tensions arefeeling demand for what would be
called sovereign.
Clouds.
A sovereign cloud is a cloudcomputing system that ensures
all data is stored, processed,and managed within a specific
(01:24):
country's borders and legaljurisdiction complying with
local data, privacy, security,and regulatory requirements.
Enterprises want to ensure datasovereignty, and this is
shifting infrastructure fromglobal to regional, especially
across Europe and Asia.
Finally, efficiency matters morethan.
(01:44):
Ever we're seeing a pivot awayfrom giant AI models to leaner,
specialized, more efficient ai,which is seen as lower cost,
more scalable, and even greener.
These developments position AIas an engine for long-term
growth and productivity and notjust a novelty.
Absolutely.
I couldn't agree more, Scott.
(02:05):
Those shifts are spot on.
The push toward unifiedintelligence and sovereign cloud
solutions is transforming howbusinesses think about and
control compliance.
I love, and I love your point onmoving toward more efficient
specialized ai.
It's exactly where long-termvalue and sustainability
intersect.
Now, let's turn to the marketsInflation, tariffs, rate cuts.
(02:28):
There's a lot swirling.
What should investors focus on?
Well, it's really a tug of warright now.
On one side, we've got newtariffs pushing input costs
higher, particularly in keycommodities like copper.
On the other, we're seeingresilient economic data, strong
jobless claims, improvingconsumer metrics, and the new
(02:49):
big, beautiful bill.
Which may reduce corporate taxrates to 12% and potentially
boost GDP into 2026.
The consumer price index or CPIis front and center.
The June print is expected at2.6% year over year.
Slightly up from May, and ifthis is confirmed, that would be
(03:09):
the highest since February andmarket consecutive, consecutive
monthly rise.
That announcement for all thatare listening is coming to us
tomorrow.
Yet markets are not yet pricingin the full impact of these
tariff headwinds.
But inflation swaps or contractswhere two parties exchanged
payments linked to the consumerprice index are telling us that
(03:32):
investors are expecting CPI topotentially rise as high as 3.3%
by next summer.
Over the last few days, we havealso heard new tariffs.
New news on tariffs with Canada,Brazil, and other countries in
the crosshairs of theadministration.
We'll see if these lead tonegotiations or actually become
(03:52):
reality in the coming weeks.
And don't forget about earningseason.
Which is opening this week, andanalysts are forecasting second
quarter earnings for all s and p500 companies to rise by an
average about 4.8% overall.
If that does turn out to be theactual rate, it would be the
slowest earnings growth sincethe fourth quarter of 2023.
(04:16):
We'll see if earnings growthdoes slow to this level or if it
proves to be a low bar to beat,and markets actually rally by
beating expectations.
Yeah, it really does feel like atug of war between macro
pressure and market optimism.
Tariffs and rising CPIexpectations are definitely
creating headwinds, but strongeconomic data and the potential
(04:40):
for tax reform are keepingsentiment afloat.
Like you said, earning seasoncould be that swing factor that
either confirms the slowdown orsurprises to the upside.
So how's the equity marketabsorbing these signals?
Any rotations or tacticalshifts?
Definitely some rotations.
Uh, last week, small cap valuestocks and defensive sectors
(05:03):
like energy, utilities, andindustrials led performance.
While growth and momentum took abreather for the week, what I'm
seeing is a shift towardsquality, value, and defensive
equity sectors.
As earning season kicks off,fundamentals are beginning to
matter again.
In fact, five of the 11 s and p500 sectors are actually
(05:27):
expected to show negativeearnings growth in the second
quarter, i'm also watching themomentum factor fade.
It's still the top performeryear to date, but the recent
volatility suggests investorsmay take profits and stocks that
have outrun their fundamentals.
Yeah, absolutely.
The pivot toward quality andvalue is becoming more evident,
(05:50):
especially as fundamentals startto retake the spotlight.
With defensive sectors steppingup and momentum showing signs of
fatigue, it's clear thatinvestors are recalibrating
ahead of what could be a pivotalearning season.
So what's the global picture?
Any signals from internationalmarkets that should guide our
(06:10):
thinking.
Yes, and some are actually quitepositive.
The Eurozone s Cix ConfidenceIndex surge just surged to a two
year high and Eurozone.
Economic data continues to beatexpectations.
China's inflation remainssubdued.
CPI at 0.1% and.
PPI or the producer inflation isactually down 3.6% year over
(06:35):
year, but that opens the doorfor further stimulus in China,
which could support emergingmarket assets.
Despite the tariff concerns, theUS dollar has stabilized after a
tough first half, clawing back1% so far in July.
That matters, especially forinternational equities, which
(06:55):
have had a strong run,particularly the MSCI.
EFA Index, even though itsearnings growth, expectations
are modest.
At best.
I concur.
There are some encouraging signsglobally, the boost in Eurozone
sentiment and China's potentialfor added stimulus give
international markets atailwind.
And with the dollar stabilizingit creates a more favorable
(07:19):
backdrop for overseas, uh,equities, even if earnings
expectations remain modest.
Okay.
Final thought.
How should our clients positionportfolios right now?
I am emphasizing balance,flexibility, and quality in
equities.
I favor companies with strongpricing power.
Cash flow, visibility and marginprotection.
(07:42):
Think infrastructure,cybersecurity, and selective
healthcare, and I'm overweightinternationally as stronger
momentum supportive centralbanks and lower valuations.
Make a compelling case foroutperformance to continue on
the fixed income side.
Intermediate duration,municipals and corporates are
(08:02):
becoming more attractive withthe 10 year treasury yielding
now over 4.4%.
I'm still using infrastructureinvestments in lieu of bonds in
many cases, but there will be atime when the Fed will help
interest rates to come down.
And in turn, createopportunities for bounds to
perform well in alternatives.
Like I said, infrastructure,private equity and private
(08:26):
credit are performing well withlimited downside volatility and
don't ignore cash withshort-term rates still elevated
money markets remain smart,plays for liquidity management.
It's momentum that rewards.
Active risk management.
Resilience is strong, but policysignals are mixed.
(08:47):
That's why real time data-drivendecisions matter more than ever.
No question.
That's a smart framework fornavigating this kind of market,
emphasizing quality in equities,staying nimble in fixed income,
and leveraging alternatives likeinfrastructure and private
credit.
It offers the kind ofdiversification and downside
(09:09):
protection that's absolutelycritical when policy direction
is uncertain.
Well, thank you, Scott, fortaking the time to share your
thoughts.
Thank you to our audience fortuning in, and please remember,
if you have a question you wouldlike to hear our opinion on,
please submit them togeneral@paramountassoc.com.
(09:29):
For now, stay informed.
Stay ahead.
And join us next time for morekey updates shaping the global
economy.
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