March 24, 2025 • 8 mins
In this episode of Paramount Wealth Perspectives, host Chris Coyle welcomes Scott Tremlett, Chief Investment Strategist, to answer pressing questions from clients and community members. They discuss key economic trends shaping 2025, including the recent uptick in unemployment, the implications of cooling inflation indicators like CPI and PPI, and what slower retail sales growth could mean for the broader economy. Scott also shares his insights on consumer sentiment, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, and strategic investment opportunities in a shifting market.
Tune in for actionable insights to help you stay informed, stay ahead, and make smarter financial decisions in 2025.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Chris Coyle (00:00):
Intro song
Speaker (00:11):
Hello everyone.
Welcome to Paramount WealthPerspectives, your go-to podcast
for the latest updates on globalmarkets and current economic
events.
This is your host, Chris Coyle.
I am the marketing director andfinancial advisor here at
Paramount Associates WealthManagement.
And today I am joined by ScottTremlett, chief Investment
Strategist here at ParamountAssociates Wealth Management.
(00:32):
Last week we received some greatquestions from our clients and
community, and today I wanted toask Scott a couple of those.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
First off, Scott, we received a question about
unemployment.
The unemployment rate recentlyrose to 4.1% from 4%, though job
openings increased in the mostrecent report on March 11th.
What do you see happening withthe job market in 2025?
Thanks, Chris.
Game on.
Speaker 4 (00:59):
Well, looking at the job market in 2025, I would just
consider it complex.
Like you had said, unemploymentrate did edge up to 4.1%.
Now let's keep in mind.
There were twice as many quitsas layoffs within that report.
I think that's forgotten aboutwith all the stuff that's going
on with the federal workforcereduction.
(01:20):
But there's still more than onejob available for each
unemployed person looking for ajob.
And there has been some keysectors that have had notable
job gains in healthcare,financial activities,
transportation and warehousingbut.
Obviously policy induceduncertainty is there, along with
a demographic labor shift wherethere's 10,000 baby boomers
(01:44):
retiring every single day.
Speaker 5 (01:46):
Certainly with all those factors, there's
definitely mixed signals.
You know, the job market isexpected to experience moderate
growth, but there'll bedefinitely some sector specific
variations.
You know, healthcare technologymay continue to expand while
sectors that are sensitive totrade policies and government
spending could face bigheadwinds right now.
(02:07):
Overall, the trajectory willdepend highly on policy
decisions, economic conditions,and business confidence.
But with all that being said,the job market and rising wages
are one of the reasons that theUS economy is doing well, and I
don't believe we'll see arecession here in 2025.
Speaker 13 (02:27):
I appreciate that insight, Scott.
And as you pointed out, thestrong wage growth and strong
job openings should continue tolead to this strong labor market
that we're seeing.
The next question that came fromour community was about PPI and
CPI or Producer Price Index andConsumer Price Index.
The producer Price Index in itsmost recent report was flat, and
(02:49):
the CPI rose 0.2% in its mostrecent report.
Which was the smallest gainsince October after accelerating
0.5% in January.
Do you see either of thesedeclining in the near future?
Speaker 5 (03:03):
Well, thanks Chris.
Yeah, I mean the CPI you, likeyou said, was the smallest gain
since October of last year, sothat is suggesting that consumer
price growth is cooling a bit.
And then the PPI Producer PriceIndex is suggesting that
wholesale or input costs forbusinesses are stabilizing.
I.
What this means to me.
Well, disinflation appears to beon track.
(03:25):
After January's hot readings,there were concerns.
Inflation might be areaccelerating, but February's
reports show that that may havebeen a blip.
It's been very, volatile whenI'm looking at the different
numbers on a month to monthbasis.
But this may give the fed somebreathing room here because it
does support the idea the Fedcan afford to wait before
raising rates again, if at all,and maybe even start cutting by
(03:48):
the summer or fall 2025depending on the trend.
I'm not really one of thosethat's suggesting that there's
gonna be many cuts this year.
But all in all, this does givefed some breathing room.
Speaker 7 (04:00):
There are some risks to watch with oil prices, sticky
housing, or rent prices.
Strong consumer demand, whichcould definitely revive CPI and
obviously the policy shifts thatwe had spoken about.
But all in all, I think that theCPI is likely to continue slowly
moderating, hovering around twoto two and a half percent year
(04:21):
over year by mid 2025 if energyprices stay stable and shelter
inflation cools a littlefurther.
PPI could stay subdued or eventurn slightly negative year over
year in the coming months ifsupply chains remain healthy and
input demand softens.
Speaker 11 (04:39):
Thanks, Scott.
Sounds like some overallpositive data in that we're
looking at both CPI and PPI, atleast remaining somewhat
consistent for 2025.
Speaker 8 (04:49):
I wanted to see with how retail sales would maybe
affect that.
There was a report that came outlast week, which showed a 0.2%
increase from last month, butthat was far below estimates.
What does this mean to you as aninvestor?
Speaker 7 (05:04):
Well, I think consumers are pulling back.
I would say, quote unquote,cautiously, retail sales are a
solid proxy for consumerspending, which continues to
make up 70% of the US.
GDP in a weaker numberdefinitely suggests that the
households may be feelingpressure from higher interest
rates.
There's also growing fatiguearound post pandemic spending,
(05:27):
and consumers should be shiftingfrom goods to services.
Or simply spending less overall.
But big thing, confidence may beslipping slightly.
We saw this in the confidencenumber, but even with inflation
still present, even if it'seasing in the job market,
showing some cracks, it seemspeople are becoming more
cautious about non-essentialpurchases growth.
(05:49):
Could be slowing, but it's notcollapsing.
I think that growth will slowthroughout the year and we'll
continue to see this, but Idon't see it collapsing.
But there are, there are somemarket and fed implications
based on what they're seeing inretail sales, and it's
definitely good for the fed'sinflation fight if people stop
spending.
It certainly would support somerate cuts later in 2025, but it
(06:12):
definitely could dampen thefirst quarter.
GDPI think that potentiallyfirst quarter GDP this year
might be zero.
We might not even see any growthbut all in all stocks, they,
they might wobble on this.
You know, markets tend to getnervous when the consumer
strength falters.
It's definitely the backbone ofthe economy, but the economy is
still resilient and the pace iscooling.
(06:33):
The Fed is getting closer torate cuts, and consumers are
being just more value consciousright now and selective in their
spending.
I.
Speaker 8 (06:41):
And yeah.
Scott, in light of thosepotential rate cuts that you had
mentioned and the strongeconomic data that we have seen,
consumer sentiment came out atits two and a half year low in
March.
What does this mean to you and,and what implications does this
have for investment strategies?
Speaker 7 (06:57):
Well, it's
Speaker 8 (06:58):
kind
Speaker 7 (06:59):
of like a double edged sword.
Obviously, short term consumersentiment dropping may not be
positive for the markets, butlet's look at the grand big
picture here.
Would I rather buy stock wheneverybody is exuberant about the
markets and everybody is reallyinto buying stock?
No.
You know there, there's beenresearch out there by Yale that
(07:21):
they came out and said that thebest time to purchase any type
of investment is when it waslooked at as the least popular
investment on the street.
And this is one of the thingsthat I look at with investment
management and when do I buy,when do I take risk off the
table?
And I can even hear it fromclients sometimes, you know,
clients, you know, getexuberant.
(07:42):
You know, markets are at alltime highs and all of a sudden
they find$10,000 sitting intheir.
Sitting underneath theirmattress and now they wanna
invest it in the highestriskiest stuff.
To me, that's a signal to sell.
And when people are gettingfreaked out calling, I wanna get
out, I wanna get out, that's apoint where I wanna buy because
I was always told way back whenyou wanna buy low and sell high
(08:05):
versus the other way around.
Speaker 8 (08:08):
Again, Scott, I appreciate your insights and
appreciate your contrarian view.
Everyone.
I want to thank you for tuningin this week.
If you have any questions,please submit them to
general@paramountassoc.com.
For now, stay informed.
Stay ahead and join us next timefor more key updates shaping the
global economy.
Intro song
Speaker (00:11):
Hello everyone.
Welcome to Paramount WealthPerspectives, your go-to podcast
for the latest updates on globalmarkets and current economic
events.
This is your host, Chris Coyle.
I am the marketing director andfinancial advisor here at
Paramount Associates WealthManagement.
And today I am joined by ScottTremlett, chief Investment
Strategist here at ParamountAssociates Wealth Management.
(00:32):
Last week we received some greatquestions from our clients and
community, and today I wanted toask Scott a couple of those.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
First off, Scott, we received a question about
unemployment.
The unemployment rate recentlyrose to 4.1% from 4%, though job
openings increased in the mostrecent report on March 11th.
What do you see happening withthe job market in 2025?
Thanks, Chris.
Game on.
Speaker 4 (00:59):
Well, looking at the job market in 2025, I would just
consider it complex.
Like you had said, unemploymentrate did edge up to 4.1%.
Now let's keep in mind.
There were twice as many quitsas layoffs within that report.
I think that's forgotten aboutwith all the stuff that's going
on with the federal workforcereduction.
(01:20):
But there's still more than onejob available for each
unemployed person looking for ajob.
And there has been some keysectors that have had notable
job gains in healthcare,financial activities,
transportation and warehousingbut.
Obviously policy induceduncertainty is there, along with
a demographic labor shift wherethere's 10,000 baby boomers
(01:44):
retiring every single day.
Speaker 5 (01:46):
Certainly with all those factors, there's
definitely mixed signals.
You know, the job market isexpected to experience moderate
growth, but there'll bedefinitely some sector specific
variations.
You know, healthcare technologymay continue to expand while
sectors that are sensitive totrade policies and government
spending could face bigheadwinds right now.
(02:07):
Overall, the trajectory willdepend highly on policy
decisions, economic conditions,and business confidence.
But with all that being said,the job market and rising wages
are one of the reasons that theUS economy is doing well, and I
don't believe we'll see arecession here in 2025.
Speaker 13 (02:27):
I appreciate that insight, Scott.
And as you pointed out, thestrong wage growth and strong
job openings should continue tolead to this strong labor market
that we're seeing.
The next question that came fromour community was about PPI and
CPI or Producer Price Index andConsumer Price Index.
The producer Price Index in itsmost recent report was flat, and
(02:49):
the CPI rose 0.2% in its mostrecent report.
Which was the smallest gainsince October after accelerating
0.5% in January.
Do you see either of thesedeclining in the near future?
Speaker 5 (03:03):
Well, thanks Chris.
Yeah, I mean the CPI you, likeyou said, was the smallest gain
since October of last year, sothat is suggesting that consumer
price growth is cooling a bit.
And then the PPI Producer PriceIndex is suggesting that
wholesale or input costs forbusinesses are stabilizing.
I.
What this means to me.
Well, disinflation appears to beon track.
(03:25):
After January's hot readings,there were concerns.
Inflation might be areaccelerating, but February's
reports show that that may havebeen a blip.
It's been very, volatile whenI'm looking at the different
numbers on a month to monthbasis.
But this may give the fed somebreathing room here because it
does support the idea the Fedcan afford to wait before
raising rates again, if at all,and maybe even start cutting by
(03:48):
the summer or fall 2025depending on the trend.
I'm not really one of thosethat's suggesting that there's
gonna be many cuts this year.
But all in all, this does givefed some breathing room.
Speaker 7 (04:00):
There are some risks to watch with oil prices, sticky
housing, or rent prices.
Strong consumer demand, whichcould definitely revive CPI and
obviously the policy shifts thatwe had spoken about.
But all in all, I think that theCPI is likely to continue slowly
moderating, hovering around twoto two and a half percent year
(04:21):
over year by mid 2025 if energyprices stay stable and shelter
inflation cools a littlefurther.
PPI could stay subdued or eventurn slightly negative year over
year in the coming months ifsupply chains remain healthy and
input demand softens.
Speaker 11 (04:39):
Thanks, Scott.
Sounds like some overallpositive data in that we're
looking at both CPI and PPI, atleast remaining somewhat
consistent for 2025.
Speaker 8 (04:49):
I wanted to see with how retail sales would maybe
affect that.
There was a report that came outlast week, which showed a 0.2%
increase from last month, butthat was far below estimates.
What does this mean to you as aninvestor?
Speaker 7 (05:04):
Well, I think consumers are pulling back.
I would say, quote unquote,cautiously, retail sales are a
solid proxy for consumerspending, which continues to
make up 70% of the US.
GDP in a weaker numberdefinitely suggests that the
households may be feelingpressure from higher interest
rates.
There's also growing fatiguearound post pandemic spending,
(05:27):
and consumers should be shiftingfrom goods to services.
Or simply spending less overall.
But big thing, confidence may beslipping slightly.
We saw this in the confidencenumber, but even with inflation
still present, even if it'seasing in the job market,
showing some cracks, it seemspeople are becoming more
cautious about non-essentialpurchases growth.
(05:49):
Could be slowing, but it's notcollapsing.
I think that growth will slowthroughout the year and we'll
continue to see this, but Idon't see it collapsing.
But there are, there are somemarket and fed implications
based on what they're seeing inretail sales, and it's
definitely good for the fed'sinflation fight if people stop
spending.
It certainly would support somerate cuts later in 2025, but it
(06:12):
definitely could dampen thefirst quarter.
GDPI think that potentiallyfirst quarter GDP this year
might be zero.
We might not even see any growthbut all in all stocks, they,
they might wobble on this.
You know, markets tend to getnervous when the consumer
strength falters.
It's definitely the backbone ofthe economy, but the economy is
still resilient and the pace iscooling.
(06:33):
The Fed is getting closer torate cuts, and consumers are
being just more value consciousright now and selective in their
spending.
I.
Speaker 8 (06:41):
And yeah.
Scott, in light of thosepotential rate cuts that you had
mentioned and the strongeconomic data that we have seen,
consumer sentiment came out atits two and a half year low in
March.
What does this mean to you and,and what implications does this
have for investment strategies?
Speaker 7 (06:57):
Well, it's
Speaker 8 (06:58):
kind
Speaker 7 (06:59):
of like a double edged sword.
Obviously, short term consumersentiment dropping may not be
positive for the markets, butlet's look at the grand big
picture here.
Would I rather buy stock wheneverybody is exuberant about the
markets and everybody is reallyinto buying stock?
No.
You know there, there's beenresearch out there by Yale that
(07:21):
they came out and said that thebest time to purchase any type
of investment is when it waslooked at as the least popular
investment on the street.
And this is one of the thingsthat I look at with investment
management and when do I buy,when do I take risk off the
table?
And I can even hear it fromclients sometimes, you know,
clients, you know, getexuberant.
(07:42):
You know, markets are at alltime highs and all of a sudden
they find$10,000 sitting intheir.
Sitting underneath theirmattress and now they wanna
invest it in the highestriskiest stuff.
To me, that's a signal to sell.
And when people are gettingfreaked out calling, I wanna get
out, I wanna get out, that's apoint where I wanna buy because
I was always told way back whenyou wanna buy low and sell high
(08:05):
versus the other way around.
Speaker 8 (08:08):
Again, Scott, I appreciate your insights and
appreciate your contrarian view.
Everyone.
I want to thank you for tuningin this week.
If you have any questions,please submit them to
general@paramountassoc.com.
For now, stay informed.
Stay ahead and join us next timefor more key updates shaping the
global economy.
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