November 18, 2024 • 9 mins
Paramount Wealth Perspectives is your trusted podcast for expert insights into global markets and economic trends. Hosted by Chris Coyle, each episode dives into key financial developments, market analysis, and strategic investment insights to help investors, business leaders, and curious minds stay ahead. This week’s discussion highlights the latest U.S. stock market movements, inflation data, and earnings trends, including the strong performance of overseas-focused firms and investor optimism despite stretched valuations.
Scott Tremlett, Chief Investment Officer at Paramount Associates, also shares insights from the Paramount Global Rankings, spotlighting India, China, and Brazil as top economies. As the holiday season approaches, the focus shifts to major retail reports and global market movers, including Nvidia’s earnings. Stay informed, stay ahead, and join us weekly for essential updates shaping the global economy.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Intro song game on.
Hello, everyone.
Welcome to paramount wealthperspectives.
Your go-to podcast for thelatest updates on global markets
and current economic events.
(00:21):
This is your host, Chris Coyle.
Each week we strive to bring youexpert analysis on market
trends, economic shifts.
And key financial developmentsfrom around the world.
Whether you're an investorbusiness leader.
Or simply curious about theglobal economy.
Our podcast is here to keep youinformed and ahead of the curve.
(00:41):
Now let's dive into the marketsand explore what shaping the
world of finance today.
Here with us today.
We have Scott Tremlett chiefinvestment officer and managing
partner at paramount associates,wealth management.
Scott.
Looking back to last week.
What are some major events youwould like to highlight?
Thanks.
Chris us stock markets were alllower for the week with the
(01:04):
biggest loser being the Russell2000 falling over 4% after
gaining over 8% the prior week.
Four sectors.
The biggest laggards werebiotech, pharma, hospitals,
semiconductors, home builders,and China technology.
Outperformers where again,financials as banks and life
(01:25):
insurers.
Lead the way.
Only two sectors were up forlast week, financials and
energy.
Treasury yields were mixed.
It seems to me that there is anew floor on yields.
Now at a higher mark.
Since the presidential election.
The dollar also continued tostrengthen.
Driving gold down over 4% forthe week.
(01:47):
Economic reports were headlinedby October's consumer inflation
report and retail sales.
CPI.
The measure of consumerinflation.
I am referencing.
I came in as projected at 2.6%.
Year over year.
This did mark the first monthover month increase in the
number since March.
(02:07):
Any a streak of six months ofthe clients.
Shelter is stalling.
The pace of disinflation and isstill up nearly 5% since October
of last year.
We have one more CPIannouncement.
Before the next fed meeting inDecember.
That's good to hear thatinflation was in line with
expectations, but I know a lotof people around the country
(02:30):
have been impacted by the highercosts of shelter.
I know you mentioned retailsales last week.
Where did those numbers come in?
Retail sales came in slightlyhigher than consensus, Chris.
Much of the strength was due toa large increase in motor
vehicle sales.
Electronics and appliances alsoled the rise for the month of
(02:51):
October.
It is estimated that much of thegains in motor vehicles and
electronics.
Was associated with thehurricanes in the south.
The fed is noticing the strengthof the economy.
And fed chair.
Paul said, quote, unquote.
The economy is not sending anysignals that we need to be in
any hurry to lower rates.
(03:13):
I mentioned last week that bysome estimates, we are only
expected to get two rate cuts bythe end of next year.
And now I am reading that thetiming of the cuts maybe pushed
to later in the year than firstexpected.
Maybe the fed will just takelonger to even get to the two
cuts.
I'm in that camp.
(03:34):
Fewer cuts and longer to getthere.
But like the fed, my thoughtsare data dependent.
And I also must keep an eye onpolicy change.
In 2025.
I would have to agree with you,Scott and also pal.
With retail sales coming instrong, we will have to see how
the data continues to trend.
(03:54):
How did earnings look last week?
Well, Chris third quarterearnings season is nearing an
end.
And the scorecard so far.
Is mixed.
As a Friday with 93% of the Sand P 500 companies reporting.
75% of S and P companies havereported a positive earnings
surprise.
(04:15):
And 61%.
Ever reported a positive revenuesurprise.
And for the third quarter.
The year of a year earningsgrowth rate.
Is 5.4%.
It, this continues.
It'll be the fifth straightquarter of year over year
earnings growth.
Those numbers sound pretty good.
(04:35):
But many earnings per sharenumbers are falling behind both
the 5-year and the tenureaverages.
In fact, the beats are slowingas companies reporting revenue,
beets are only doing so on anaverage of 1.2% above
expectations.
Again.
Below, both the five-year and10-year averages.
(04:56):
Overall earnings revisionmomentum has declined into
negative territory.
There was divergence within thenumbers as well.
Depending on where firms selltheir services.
According to FactSet.
For example, companies thatgenerate more than 50% of sales
within the U S have a blendedgrowth rate of just 1.5%.
(05:17):
On the flip side, those firmsthat generate more than 50% of
sales overseas.
Have a blended growth rate ofnearly 13%.
This is buoyed by an NvidiaPfizer alphabet and Metta whom
all generate more salesoverseas.
However, none of this isstopping investor optimism.
S last week was the secondlargest inflow of money into us
(05:40):
stocks.
Since 2008.
At the same time, valuations inthe U S maybe stretched.
With the highest forward priceto earnings ratio and more than
three years.
We will see how this all playsout.
But high valuations reductionsand earnings revisions.
Lots of money coming in due tohigher sentiment.
(06:01):
Um, as a contrarian.
One might say those are all cellsignals.
Well, I know you have said to methat there are times to be a
contrarian investor.
And times when not to be.
I'm sure our listeners andmyself included would like to
hear more on this in the future.
But for now, I wanted to ask youmore about the paramount global
(06:23):
rankings.
You had mentioned last week.
Can we please take some time todiscuss these rankings further?
Of course, Chris.
Last week I did update theparamount global rankings.
The results do align with theearnings statistics provided
earlier, showing that companiesderiving over 50% of sales
overseas.
(06:43):
Are experiencing higher earningsgrowth.
Here are my top five.
India, China, Brazil, Spain, andCanada.
The us came in at number six.
The us has been in the upperthird for most of 20, 24, but
only cracking into the top fivein two months.
India has been the strongesteconomy in all months, but one.
(07:07):
India is an interesting case.
With manufacturing numbers thatthe rest of the globe is jealous
of.
And over three years ofconsistent new order growth.
You add to that?
More working age, populationgrowth than the rest of the
world.
Combined.
You come up with an economicmixture that could lead to
stable returns.
(07:28):
Incoming years.
I've been an investor in Indiaand not China for some time.
Now.
Due to domestic consumption,particularly in the service
sector.
India may be more insulated fromtariff pain than China or
Europe.
India's valuation is in linewith longterm averages.
However, you can look at theirGDP per capita number.
(07:51):
That's a measure of averagewealth or income per person.
Versus the rest of the world.
Wow.
Keep in mind that the economicand population growth is so
strong and you can make anassumption that economically.
The country is undervalued.
We'll dive a little more intothis the first week of December.
When our first guest speakerjoins our podcast.
(08:14):
Thanks for elaborating more onthe paramount global rankings.
And where they currently stand.
Scott, I'm eager to hear youdiscuss them further with our
guest in December.
Finally, what are we looking atthis week in the United States
and globally?
Chris.
This week, we have severalreadings on the us consumer.
Walmart Lowe's target and TJMaxx all report this week.
(08:39):
We also expect to see retailersprojections for the holiday
shopping season.
Retailer outlooks are key.
As the fourth quarter istypically the strongest period
of the year.
We have a couple of housingreports this week.
We have us leading economicindicators.
Some flash PMI reports and theuniversity of Michigan's final
(09:00):
consumer sentiment report.
Comes out on Friday.
Uh, overseas.
China's back on the clock withtheir loan prime rate
announcement.
And we have retail sales fromthe UK and Canada.
But the biggest potential newscomes to us Wednesday as the
world's largest company.
Depending on the second you lookin the video reports, earnings.
(09:23):
On Wednesday.
Futures markets are pricing in amove 9%, the stock either way.
And with the size and the video.
That's likely to have an overallmarket impact.
Well, we will certainly have tokeep on the lookout for those
reports and trends.
And I'm sure we will have plentyto discuss next Monday.
(09:43):
For now stay informed.
Stay ahead.
And join us next week for morekey updates shaping the global
economy.
Thank you for tuning intoparamount wealth perspectives.
We hope you all have a fantasticweek.
Intro song game on.
Hello, everyone.
Welcome to paramount wealthperspectives.
Your go-to podcast for thelatest updates on global markets
and current economic events.
(00:21):
This is your host, Chris Coyle.
Each week we strive to bring youexpert analysis on market
trends, economic shifts.
And key financial developmentsfrom around the world.
Whether you're an investorbusiness leader.
Or simply curious about theglobal economy.
Our podcast is here to keep youinformed and ahead of the curve.
(00:41):
Now let's dive into the marketsand explore what shaping the
world of finance today.
Here with us today.
We have Scott Tremlett chiefinvestment officer and managing
partner at paramount associates,wealth management.
Scott.
Looking back to last week.
What are some major events youwould like to highlight?
Thanks.
Chris us stock markets were alllower for the week with the
(01:04):
biggest loser being the Russell2000 falling over 4% after
gaining over 8% the prior week.
Four sectors.
The biggest laggards werebiotech, pharma, hospitals,
semiconductors, home builders,and China technology.
Outperformers where again,financials as banks and life
(01:25):
insurers.
Lead the way.
Only two sectors were up forlast week, financials and
energy.
Treasury yields were mixed.
It seems to me that there is anew floor on yields.
Now at a higher mark.
Since the presidential election.
The dollar also continued tostrengthen.
Driving gold down over 4% forthe week.
(01:47):
Economic reports were headlinedby October's consumer inflation
report and retail sales.
CPI.
The measure of consumerinflation.
I am referencing.
I came in as projected at 2.6%.
Year over year.
This did mark the first monthover month increase in the
number since March.
(02:07):
Any a streak of six months ofthe clients.
Shelter is stalling.
The pace of disinflation and isstill up nearly 5% since October
of last year.
We have one more CPIannouncement.
Before the next fed meeting inDecember.
That's good to hear thatinflation was in line with
expectations, but I know a lotof people around the country
(02:30):
have been impacted by the highercosts of shelter.
I know you mentioned retailsales last week.
Where did those numbers come in?
Retail sales came in slightlyhigher than consensus, Chris.
Much of the strength was due toa large increase in motor
vehicle sales.
Electronics and appliances alsoled the rise for the month of
(02:51):
October.
It is estimated that much of thegains in motor vehicles and
electronics.
Was associated with thehurricanes in the south.
The fed is noticing the strengthof the economy.
And fed chair.
Paul said, quote, unquote.
The economy is not sending anysignals that we need to be in
any hurry to lower rates.
(03:13):
I mentioned last week that bysome estimates, we are only
expected to get two rate cuts bythe end of next year.
And now I am reading that thetiming of the cuts maybe pushed
to later in the year than firstexpected.
Maybe the fed will just takelonger to even get to the two
cuts.
I'm in that camp.
(03:34):
Fewer cuts and longer to getthere.
But like the fed, my thoughtsare data dependent.
And I also must keep an eye onpolicy change.
In 2025.
I would have to agree with you,Scott and also pal.
With retail sales coming instrong, we will have to see how
the data continues to trend.
(03:54):
How did earnings look last week?
Well, Chris third quarterearnings season is nearing an
end.
And the scorecard so far.
Is mixed.
As a Friday with 93% of the Sand P 500 companies reporting.
75% of S and P companies havereported a positive earnings
surprise.
(04:15):
And 61%.
Ever reported a positive revenuesurprise.
And for the third quarter.
The year of a year earningsgrowth rate.
Is 5.4%.
It, this continues.
It'll be the fifth straightquarter of year over year
earnings growth.
Those numbers sound pretty good.
(04:35):
But many earnings per sharenumbers are falling behind both
the 5-year and the tenureaverages.
In fact, the beats are slowingas companies reporting revenue,
beets are only doing so on anaverage of 1.2% above
expectations.
Again.
Below, both the five-year and10-year averages.
(04:56):
Overall earnings revisionmomentum has declined into
negative territory.
There was divergence within thenumbers as well.
Depending on where firms selltheir services.
According to FactSet.
For example, companies thatgenerate more than 50% of sales
within the U S have a blendedgrowth rate of just 1.5%.
(05:17):
On the flip side, those firmsthat generate more than 50% of
sales overseas.
Have a blended growth rate ofnearly 13%.
This is buoyed by an NvidiaPfizer alphabet and Metta whom
all generate more salesoverseas.
However, none of this isstopping investor optimism.
S last week was the secondlargest inflow of money into us
(05:40):
stocks.
Since 2008.
At the same time, valuations inthe U S maybe stretched.
With the highest forward priceto earnings ratio and more than
three years.
We will see how this all playsout.
But high valuations reductionsand earnings revisions.
Lots of money coming in due tohigher sentiment.
(06:01):
Um, as a contrarian.
One might say those are all cellsignals.
Well, I know you have said to methat there are times to be a
contrarian investor.
And times when not to be.
I'm sure our listeners andmyself included would like to
hear more on this in the future.
But for now, I wanted to ask youmore about the paramount global
(06:23):
rankings.
You had mentioned last week.
Can we please take some time todiscuss these rankings further?
Of course, Chris.
Last week I did update theparamount global rankings.
The results do align with theearnings statistics provided
earlier, showing that companiesderiving over 50% of sales
overseas.
(06:43):
Are experiencing higher earningsgrowth.
Here are my top five.
India, China, Brazil, Spain, andCanada.
The us came in at number six.
The us has been in the upperthird for most of 20, 24, but
only cracking into the top fivein two months.
India has been the strongesteconomy in all months, but one.
(07:07):
India is an interesting case.
With manufacturing numbers thatthe rest of the globe is jealous
of.
And over three years ofconsistent new order growth.
You add to that?
More working age, populationgrowth than the rest of the
world.
Combined.
You come up with an economicmixture that could lead to
stable returns.
(07:28):
Incoming years.
I've been an investor in Indiaand not China for some time.
Now.
Due to domestic consumption,particularly in the service
sector.
India may be more insulated fromtariff pain than China or
Europe.
India's valuation is in linewith longterm averages.
However, you can look at theirGDP per capita number.
(07:51):
That's a measure of averagewealth or income per person.
Versus the rest of the world.
Wow.
Keep in mind that the economicand population growth is so
strong and you can make anassumption that economically.
The country is undervalued.
We'll dive a little more intothis the first week of December.
When our first guest speakerjoins our podcast.
(08:14):
Thanks for elaborating more onthe paramount global rankings.
And where they currently stand.
Scott, I'm eager to hear youdiscuss them further with our
guest in December.
Finally, what are we looking atthis week in the United States
and globally?
Chris.
This week, we have severalreadings on the us consumer.
Walmart Lowe's target and TJMaxx all report this week.
(08:39):
We also expect to see retailersprojections for the holiday
shopping season.
Retailer outlooks are key.
As the fourth quarter istypically the strongest period
of the year.
We have a couple of housingreports this week.
We have us leading economicindicators.
Some flash PMI reports and theuniversity of Michigan's final
(09:00):
consumer sentiment report.
Comes out on Friday.
Uh, overseas.
China's back on the clock withtheir loan prime rate
announcement.
And we have retail sales fromthe UK and Canada.
But the biggest potential newscomes to us Wednesday as the
world's largest company.
Depending on the second you lookin the video reports, earnings.
(09:23):
On Wednesday.
Futures markets are pricing in amove 9%, the stock either way.
And with the size and the video.
That's likely to have an overallmarket impact.
Well, we will certainly have tokeep on the lookout for those
reports and trends.
And I'm sure we will have plentyto discuss next Monday.
(09:43):
For now stay informed.
Stay ahead.
And join us next week for morekey updates shaping the global
economy.
Thank you for tuning intoparamount wealth perspectives.
We hope you all have a fantasticweek.
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