November 25, 2024 • 8 mins
Paramount Wealth Perspectives is your trusted podcast for global market insights and financial updates. Hosted by Chris Coyle, each episode brings you expert analysis on economic trends, market movements, and key developments shaping the financial world.
This week, Chris is joined by Scott Tremlett, who provides updates on U.S. markets rebounding with consumer staples leading the charge, mixed interest rate movements, and housing data reflecting regional influences like hurricanes. The team dives into strong third-quarter earnings growth and expectations for the holiday shopping season, highlighting millennials as major contributors. Looking ahead, fourth-quarter earnings are projected to surge, with financials and pharmaceuticals driving growth, as the S&P 500 is anticipated to end 2025 higher.
Don’t miss next week’s episode featuring Emily Roland, Chief Investment Strategist at John Hancock. Tune in weekly to stay ahead of global market trends and economic insights, and have a fantastic Thanksgiving!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Intro song game on.
Hello, everyone.
Welcome to paramount wealthperspectives.
Your go-to podcast for thelatest updates on global markets
and current economic events.
(00:21):
This is your host, Chris Coyle.
Each week we strive to bring youexpert analysis on market
trends, economic shifts.
And key financial developmentsfrom around the world.
Whether you're an investorbusiness leader.
Or simply curious about theglobal economy.
Our podcast is here to keep youinformed and ahead of the curve.
(00:41):
Now let's dive into the marketsand explore what shaping the
world of finance today.
Here with us today.
We have Scott Tremlett chiefinvestment officer and managing
partner at paramount associates,wealth management.
Scott.
Looking back to last week.
What are some major events youwould like to highlight?
Thanks, Chris.
Us stocks were higher last week.
(01:03):
Bouncing back from the previousweek's losses.
Big tech.
Was mixed and the equal weight Sand P 500 outperformed the
official index.
Illustrating a broadening ofmarkets in the U S.
Consumer staples led marketslast week.
Headline by Walmart.
Followed by materials, realestate and utilities.
(01:25):
The dollar strengthened andinterest rates were mixed as the
short end rows with changes inthe fed rate.
Cut expectations.
Futures are now implying almosta 50% chance that the fed does
not cut in December.
And the tenure dropped withworsening conflicts abroad.
Us manufacturing did riseslightly, but continues to stay
(01:48):
in contraction territory.
Services in the U S gainstrength and came in above
expectations.
Private sector output in the U Srose to its highest level since
first quarter 2022.
Housing starts dropped inOctober, led by fewer starts in
the south and the Northeast.
It's possible.
(02:09):
We are seeing hurricane effectsthere.
As existing home sales jumpedabove consensus.
For the first year over yearincrease since July of 2021.
The university of Michigan'sindex of consumer sentiment.
Increased for the fourthstraight month.
They feel the November numberwas largely influenced by an
uptick in sentiment amongstRepublicans, since the election.
(02:33):
Europe seems to be missing itsmarks.
And once again, disappointedinvestors.
With below consensus, compositePMI.
We are also seeing caution inthe UK, both on the business
capital expenditures.
And retail spending.
Well, thanks Scott for walkingus through what happened around
the global markets last week.
(02:54):
What about what happened withearnings?
As for earnings, Chris, we are95% of the way through the S and
P 503rd quarter earning season.
And nine more firms arereporting this week.
Overall.
Earnings growth rate for thethird quarter stands at 5.8%
versus the 4.3% expected.
(03:14):
However earnings growth,revenue, growth, sales
expectations, and the strengthof the beets are falling below
historical averages.
Even the video who did beat onsales.
Underwhelmed the next quartersrevenue guidance.
Overall.
Earnings sales and revenues.
(03:35):
Are all slowing.
Thanks, Scott.
Last week you had mentioned,there were some reads on the us
consumer.
What exactly did you see there?
Last week.
We did gather some insights,Chris.
Starting with earnings.
Walmart, TJ Maxx, Ross storesand gap, all rallied.
With better than expectedearnings reports.
(03:57):
On the flip side, target missedon most key metrics with
weakness in their higher margin.
Discretionary.
And stating that consumers werebecoming more promotion seeking.
We also received information onthe upcoming holiday season
expectations.
It looks like this year, holidayshopping will be spearheaded by
the millennials.
(04:18):
According to trans union.
63% of millennials, many withchildren of their own at this
point.
So they plan to spend the sameor more than they did last year.
Increases in income andexpectations that wages will
continue to increase.
I seem to be offsetting anychanges in the price of goods.
In fact, even as credit carddebt now tops$1.1 trillion.
(04:43):
How they shoppers expect tospend just over$1,750.
Up 8% from last year, accordingto Deloitte, how they retail
survey.
Most shoppers, nearly 75%.
Use credit cards to buy holidaygifts.
Believe it or not.
Nearly 30% of holiday shoppersthat were surveyed in September
(05:06):
by NerdWallet.
Had not yet paid off the giftsthey purchased last year.
I won't even get intoinstallment arrangements, like
buy now pay later.
But I did see a report.
That was expected that nearly$1billion of new by now.
I pay later.
Arrangements are expected oncyber Monday alone.
(05:28):
Well, as you mentioned, Scott,it seems like the us consumer is
poised to spend more during thisholiday season.
So what exactly does this meanfor the rest of this year and
even into next year?
Remember when I said that thethird quarter earnings growth
number stands at 5.8% so far,Chris.
Here's another, believe it ornot a statistic fourth quarter
(05:50):
earnings.
Are expected to more thandouble.
To 12% growth.
If 12% is the number.
That will mark the largest yearover year earnings growth rate
since the end of 2021.
Much like back in 2021.
Most of this expected growthcomes from weak year-over-year
(06:10):
comps, particularly infinancials and pharmaceuticals.
Financials and banking areexpected to be the largest
contributors to earnings growthfor the fourth quarter.
As for 2025, many of the biggestnames out there are calling for
the S and P 500 to end 2025.
10% higher than where we arenow.
(06:32):
Today alone.
I've read three majorpublications.
All stating that same number.
We will see.
As some of the earningsexpectations seem pretty frothy
to me in the face of revenuesand sales dropping.
As I say this, the other side ofmy brain is reminding me to
remember that the us consumer isstill driving almost 80% of the
(06:55):
growth in the U S economy.
Thanks.
Scott all continued to check inwith you, whether or not the U S
economy is able to stay in linewith the 2021 us earnings
growth.
What are we looking at thisweek?
This week, Chris, we have twohome price numbers.
We have new home sales.
And the conference board'sconsumer confidence index all on
(07:18):
Tuesday.
Wednesday, we have a us GDPprint.
Jobless claims.
Pending home sales and the Fed'spreferred inflation gauge.
PCE.
Oversees this week.
We have the bank of Koreaannouncement where they're
expected to leave rates onchange.
Canada India, Switzerland andFrance GDP on Friday.
(07:40):
And the monthly manufacturingnumbers from around the world.
Start on Saturday.
Eurozone economic sentiment ison Thursday, but hopefully none
of you are paying attention tothat.
And instead you're spending theday with your families for
Thanksgiving.
Remember you can't controleverything.
But you can control beingthankful for the things and
(08:02):
people.
That you have in your life.
Oh, yeah.
And go pack.
Go.
Well go Packo.
And if you're from Colorado,Then go Broncos.
Now I would like to announce ourfirst guest speaker on the
paramount wealth perspectivespodcast for next week.
Emily Roland.
She is the chief investmentstrategist at John Hancock.
(08:25):
Emily is frequently featured onCNBC and Bloomberg TV.
She is often quoted in the wallstreet journal.
Barons and the associated press.
Emily is a highly rated keynotespeaker.
And we can't wait to hear whatshe has to say.
For now stay informed.
Stay ahead.
And join us next week for morekey updates shaping the global
(08:46):
economy.
Thank you and everyone else fortuning in.
And we hope you have anabsolutely fantastic
Thanksgiving.
Intro song game on.
Hello, everyone.
Welcome to paramount wealthperspectives.
Your go-to podcast for thelatest updates on global markets
and current economic events.
(00:21):
This is your host, Chris Coyle.
Each week we strive to bring youexpert analysis on market
trends, economic shifts.
And key financial developmentsfrom around the world.
Whether you're an investorbusiness leader.
Or simply curious about theglobal economy.
Our podcast is here to keep youinformed and ahead of the curve.
(00:41):
Now let's dive into the marketsand explore what shaping the
world of finance today.
Here with us today.
We have Scott Tremlett chiefinvestment officer and managing
partner at paramount associates,wealth management.
Scott.
Looking back to last week.
What are some major events youwould like to highlight?
Thanks, Chris.
Us stocks were higher last week.
(01:03):
Bouncing back from the previousweek's losses.
Big tech.
Was mixed and the equal weight Sand P 500 outperformed the
official index.
Illustrating a broadening ofmarkets in the U S.
Consumer staples led marketslast week.
Headline by Walmart.
Followed by materials, realestate and utilities.
(01:25):
The dollar strengthened andinterest rates were mixed as the
short end rows with changes inthe fed rate.
Cut expectations.
Futures are now implying almosta 50% chance that the fed does
not cut in December.
And the tenure dropped withworsening conflicts abroad.
Us manufacturing did riseslightly, but continues to stay
(01:48):
in contraction territory.
Services in the U S gainstrength and came in above
expectations.
Private sector output in the U Srose to its highest level since
first quarter 2022.
Housing starts dropped inOctober, led by fewer starts in
the south and the Northeast.
It's possible.
(02:09):
We are seeing hurricane effectsthere.
As existing home sales jumpedabove consensus.
For the first year over yearincrease since July of 2021.
The university of Michigan'sindex of consumer sentiment.
Increased for the fourthstraight month.
They feel the November numberwas largely influenced by an
uptick in sentiment amongstRepublicans, since the election.
(02:33):
Europe seems to be missing itsmarks.
And once again, disappointedinvestors.
With below consensus, compositePMI.
We are also seeing caution inthe UK, both on the business
capital expenditures.
And retail spending.
Well, thanks Scott for walkingus through what happened around
the global markets last week.
(02:54):
What about what happened withearnings?
As for earnings, Chris, we are95% of the way through the S and
P 503rd quarter earning season.
And nine more firms arereporting this week.
Overall.
Earnings growth rate for thethird quarter stands at 5.8%
versus the 4.3% expected.
(03:14):
However earnings growth,revenue, growth, sales
expectations, and the strengthof the beets are falling below
historical averages.
Even the video who did beat onsales.
Underwhelmed the next quartersrevenue guidance.
Overall.
Earnings sales and revenues.
(03:35):
Are all slowing.
Thanks, Scott.
Last week you had mentioned,there were some reads on the us
consumer.
What exactly did you see there?
Last week.
We did gather some insights,Chris.
Starting with earnings.
Walmart, TJ Maxx, Ross storesand gap, all rallied.
With better than expectedearnings reports.
(03:57):
On the flip side, target missedon most key metrics with
weakness in their higher margin.
Discretionary.
And stating that consumers werebecoming more promotion seeking.
We also received information onthe upcoming holiday season
expectations.
It looks like this year, holidayshopping will be spearheaded by
the millennials.
(04:18):
According to trans union.
63% of millennials, many withchildren of their own at this
point.
So they plan to spend the sameor more than they did last year.
Increases in income andexpectations that wages will
continue to increase.
I seem to be offsetting anychanges in the price of goods.
In fact, even as credit carddebt now tops$1.1 trillion.
(04:43):
How they shoppers expect tospend just over$1,750.
Up 8% from last year, accordingto Deloitte, how they retail
survey.
Most shoppers, nearly 75%.
Use credit cards to buy holidaygifts.
Believe it or not.
Nearly 30% of holiday shoppersthat were surveyed in September
(05:06):
by NerdWallet.
Had not yet paid off the giftsthey purchased last year.
I won't even get intoinstallment arrangements, like
buy now pay later.
But I did see a report.
That was expected that nearly$1billion of new by now.
I pay later.
Arrangements are expected oncyber Monday alone.
(05:28):
Well, as you mentioned, Scott,it seems like the us consumer is
poised to spend more during thisholiday season.
So what exactly does this meanfor the rest of this year and
even into next year?
Remember when I said that thethird quarter earnings growth
number stands at 5.8% so far,Chris.
Here's another, believe it ornot a statistic fourth quarter
(05:50):
earnings.
Are expected to more thandouble.
To 12% growth.
If 12% is the number.
That will mark the largest yearover year earnings growth rate
since the end of 2021.
Much like back in 2021.
Most of this expected growthcomes from weak year-over-year
(06:10):
comps, particularly infinancials and pharmaceuticals.
Financials and banking areexpected to be the largest
contributors to earnings growthfor the fourth quarter.
As for 2025, many of the biggestnames out there are calling for
the S and P 500 to end 2025.
10% higher than where we arenow.
(06:32):
Today alone.
I've read three majorpublications.
All stating that same number.
We will see.
As some of the earningsexpectations seem pretty frothy
to me in the face of revenuesand sales dropping.
As I say this, the other side ofmy brain is reminding me to
remember that the us consumer isstill driving almost 80% of the
(06:55):
growth in the U S economy.
Thanks.
Scott all continued to check inwith you, whether or not the U S
economy is able to stay in linewith the 2021 us earnings
growth.
What are we looking at thisweek?
This week, Chris, we have twohome price numbers.
We have new home sales.
And the conference board'sconsumer confidence index all on
(07:18):
Tuesday.
Wednesday, we have a us GDPprint.
Jobless claims.
Pending home sales and the Fed'spreferred inflation gauge.
PCE.
Oversees this week.
We have the bank of Koreaannouncement where they're
expected to leave rates onchange.
Canada India, Switzerland andFrance GDP on Friday.
(07:40):
And the monthly manufacturingnumbers from around the world.
Start on Saturday.
Eurozone economic sentiment ison Thursday, but hopefully none
of you are paying attention tothat.
And instead you're spending theday with your families for
Thanksgiving.
Remember you can't controleverything.
But you can control beingthankful for the things and
(08:02):
people.
That you have in your life.
Oh, yeah.
And go pack.
Go.
Well go Packo.
And if you're from Colorado,Then go Broncos.
Now I would like to announce ourfirst guest speaker on the
paramount wealth perspectivespodcast for next week.
Emily Roland.
She is the chief investmentstrategist at John Hancock.
(08:25):
Emily is frequently featured onCNBC and Bloomberg TV.
She is often quoted in the wallstreet journal.
Barons and the associated press.
Emily is a highly rated keynotespeaker.
And we can't wait to hear whatshe has to say.
For now stay informed.
Stay ahead.
And join us next week for morekey updates shaping the global
(08:46):
economy.
Thank you and everyone else fortuning in.
And we hope you have anabsolutely fantastic
Thanksgiving.
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