September 19, 2023 • 17 mins
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Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
Hey, what's up Rob?
(00:16):
How you been man?
Hey man, how are you?
Happy new year I guess.
This is our first live after the, after the holidays right?
Yeah, how were your holidays?
Were they good?
It was good.
Yeah, we had a good time.
It was so needed, although you know how it is, you end up working through the holidays
because that's when customers have free time so they start texting you.
(00:38):
That's when they're sitting around thinking, huh, what house should I be looking at today?
Texting over addresses and you know.
So man, I've been making a lot of phone calls, you know, that's my job.
That's our job.
We had calling people just nonstop every day and having conversations, you know, and one
(01:04):
conversation that I've been repeatedly having with people and they completely seem like
they're getting misinformation on what interest rates are and how they're trending.
Yeah, yeah, that seems to be a pretty, pretty tough thing to actually get right for any
loan officer or anybody in mortgages.
(01:26):
And the reason for that is rates change every day.
So when when you're having a conversation about getting somebody pre approved, you're
talking and thinking about it through the lens of the rates of that day.
And most loan officers don't have the time nor knowledge to think about it, to try to
extrapolate and think maybe three months in advance, especially in an economic environments
(01:50):
like the one we're in right now where it's so volatile.
So what are you hearing?
One guy told me that he thought interest rates were up to like 9%.
I was like, oh, no.
Well, definitely not.
Definitely not.
God save us if we get to that point.
I mean, that's going to be rough.
I mean, I mean, I check him.
I check them daily, obviously, even sometimes three or four times throughout the day.
(02:13):
And that, you know, you start seeing some some rates in the in the mid to high fives.
It's the first time we see them for the last four or five months.
So it is soft, it is soft, I would call this, it is softening up.
Again, it changes it varies every day.
So today was kind of like a little up, but the last couple of weeks has been going down.
(02:39):
For the last four months, the rates have gone up there all the way to the 7% mark.
It's a very, very tough interest rate for most first time home buyers and it basically
eliminates a lot of buyers from the pool, right?
Because a lot of people can really afford a housing 7% interest rate.
(03:00):
So now you know me, I'm a positive guy.
So I always try to think about it as positive.
It actually works for the for the well qualified buyers.
And even the first time home buyers that barely qualify.
Why?
Because it eliminates a lot of people from the competition.
You and I remember right back in the first quarter, even part of the second quarter of
(03:24):
2022 tons of multi offer situations, right?
Right.
A lot of houses were that had two, three, four, sometimes even six and seven offers.
And you're like, I was just getting super frustrated and I mean, almost dropping out
of how do you compete with that, man?
I mean, how do you compete with six, seven other people?
(03:46):
You basically have to give up a lot of things to try to get down.
Especially when one walks in with a bag full of cash and sits down and says, hey, I want
to buy this in 10 days.
And you know, yeah, at that point they won, you know, right?
But think about the situation.
Why was there a lot of cash in the market?
One, there was a lot of investors.
Second, there were a lot of people moving tons of people moving because they could work
(04:07):
remotely.
Well, guess what?
That's not the case anymore.
The people who wanted to move, they have moved.
There's still a lot of things happening in that area, but not the amount of cash that
they have before, you know, last year.
So you don't see a lot of those situations again.
You see now, barely you get one, maybe two offers per house.
(04:29):
So a house that has been sitting in the market and, you know, if we have anybody selling a
house right now, listen and please cover your ears.
You don't want to hear that.
But if you have to sell your house, you have to consider any offer, right?
If you have to sell your house, if you're in a situation where you can wait a couple
months and see how it goes, you don't need the cash from the house.
(04:51):
You can have that house sitting there for a couple more months, then fine.
It doesn't affect you.
But if you have to sell the house, you have to consider, even if you get only one offer,
right?
So what happens is buyers have now the advantage.
Buyers can request, you know, credits in some.
So the interest rates are a little softer.
They're helping some of the buyers.
(05:13):
There's not multi-offer scenarios anymore or not as many as before.
So all in all, I think this is a great opportunity for people who are in the market to buy a house.
If they can, if they get pre-approved, go for it.
Absolutely.
And, you know, I like that you brought up that we get to negotiate a seller's credit
again, you know, the last two listings that Janelle and I have sold.
(05:36):
They included $12,500 seller's credit to buy down the buyer's rating.
That's incredible.
That's incredible that you've been able to do that.
I mean, unheard of in the last probably five years.
Yeah.
We haven't been able to play with seller credits for a while.
And from the buyer side, that's like the most fun part of my job is negotiating stuff
(05:59):
like that and getting it written in contract and making sure that my buyers are protected
on the negotiation.
You know, I mean, they almost deserve it, right?
Like after what they've been through being beat out by so many different cash investors
and, you know, like you're talking about transplants from the Bay Area, from bigger cities, you
(06:25):
know, we're a smaller town here in Yuba City, you know?
And it's just such a relief being able to feel like I'm doing my job again and being
able to help the buyers.
Yeah, exactly.
To be their advocate on their behalf, you know?
Yeah.
(06:46):
The kind of the local people who live there, who have lived there for a long time and they're
really wanting to go for that, to accomplish that dream of owning a home.
Yeah.
And if you're ever in kind of going away little by little or at least becoming harder and harder
over time, it's good to have that opportunity to actually help them out, right?
And get them some credits and get them in the house.
(07:07):
So, yeah, it's a very satisfying kind of position.
Now I do have bad news.
I don't know how long that's going to last.
I think, you know, interestingly enough, the Fed is, as I said in our last live about
two weeks ago, the Fed is determined to figure this out.
(07:31):
They know they have printed too much money.
And they don't actually print money anymore.
Right.
Everything is digital, right?
So they've flooded the economy with tons of money and not just this government, previous
government too.
Right.
(07:52):
And I think that we have to do it too.
So it's both parties, right, as I mentioned before.
Right.
The economy is flooded.
They know that the only way to fight inflation is to keep at it, to keep increasing interest
rates.
So that's not going to stop.
What has changed though this year seems like is, you know, what we're looking at right
(08:12):
now is what's going to happen with the Treasury, any year Treasury.
What is going to happen to that return?
What's going to happen to the job market, right?
It seems to be strong.
I hope it stays strong.
But you know, we'll see.
And so I guess what I'm trying to say is there's other factors that affect mortgage rates
(08:33):
that is not just what the Fed says in terms of increasing the rates.
And those other factors might keep the rates where they are right now.
Sales volume is going to be very important if we continue the current very low sales
volume.
Right.
Not much to, you know, not much the mortgage industry can do to keep mortgages going.
(08:55):
So I think that environment will dictate where we go from here.
But you know, we'll see if the rates stay low or can go lower than what they are right
now is going to bring more people back to buy houses.
And if the jobs are stable, bring more people back, there will be more competition sometime
(09:17):
middle of the year.
So we'll see.
I'm not into predictions.
I hate predictions.
I know.
Same here.
You're probably wrong.
When we look at all the evidence, I mean, every single year, you know, we see the
these ebbs and flows.
And yeah, right now in January, I'm noticing a lot more buyer activity.
(09:39):
You know, I mean, I've sent a number of people over to you in the last, oh yeah, right.
And that has everything to do with the fact that people are starting to kind of like calm
down from from getting beat up and starting to heal.
And they're like, okay.
(09:59):
Yeah.
Let's give it a shot.
You know, and like you said, that's going to cause more competition because if we have
more people wanting to purchase houses and lower inventory, you know, but it's a different
kind of competition because they're, you know, they're all buyers with a loan attached to
(10:24):
them.
It's not you're trying to compete with cash.
That's what we were going through, you know, eight months ago, and that was just a failing
system for anybody that had like an FHA, USDA, those kinds of loans.
It just made it impossible for them to get accepted.
(10:46):
Right.
And I, and now, now we're seeing, you know, more FHA, more USDA VA loans being being accepted
by by sellers, you know, I mean, it.
Yeah, you're absolutely right.
You know, what's interesting is the, what I noticed is people that, you know, because
(11:07):
you send me a couple of customers that need to be looked at and, but it's the same with
every realtor that is kind of going through that pool of buyers that got discouraged in
2022 and 2021 did not make it happen.
They couldn't figure it out and they come with a little bit of PTSD if I, if I, if I
(11:30):
may say so, they, you know, they're very weary, they're worried, they don't jump into the
conversation right away.
They kind of push it off a little bit.
But once you get them pre approved and once you actually do the work to make sure that
they stand as a solid buyer, right, because they realize this is my chance and this is
(11:52):
my window.
So, so I think, you know, I'm, I'm an eternal positive guy, optimist.
So as much as, as much as we are in a very talk and very unique, volatile environment,
I think things are going to, I'm going to start panning out and things are going to
start becoming a little bit better.
(12:13):
But I think so too.
Not without a lot of more work from realtors and mortgage advisors.
Well, and that's the thing too, you know, like, I love that you touched on the fact
that people are have maybe a little PTSD from, from getting beat up for two years, you know,
now I've totally changed my conversation when I call people, you know, instead of being
(12:36):
salesy and pushy and, you know, that guy that's calling them for the sales call that
they don't want to be on.
Right.
I'm like, Hey, this is Matt Moreno with Moreno real estate team.
I'm just reaching out to my base to talk to the people and have that conversation.
You have any questions right about the market right now or, you know, and just start them
(12:58):
off soft because it they've, they've been through a lot in the last couple of years,
you know, and I've noticed that coming at them with the approach of kind of being the
educator and the advisor is a whole lot better of conversation.
They want to keep me on the phone.
And then, you know, the more they start asking questions, the more that we realize, okay,
(13:26):
let's start moving forward.
Let's see what we can do to get you pre-approved, to get you keys in your hand and into a home,
you know.
Yeah, that's a great comment.
However, it's still, as you said, it's much more, it's much more work, right?
It's when you have an environment where things are moving pretty fast and buyers have to
compete, it's you have the luxury as a realtor or a mortgage advisor to pick who you would
(13:51):
talk to.
And you have a luxury of saying, listen, be that kind of celsi guy and say like, hey,
listen, my time is precious too.
Your time is important.
You're trying to buy it.
You're trying to figure it out.
My time is precious too.
I have five other people knocking on the door.
But right now, we, it's, I think it's a good thing that it forces loan officers and realtors
(14:12):
to be an advisor, to be a true representative, a true advocate for the buyer.
And it's a luxury we didn't have before, I guess, is that the market pushes us to do
that.
But it also does something super interesting that we touched on our last conversation,
which is it weeds out the people who don't have the knowledge, who don't have the experience,
(14:33):
who cannot play the role.
So there's a lot of realtors out there that are not closing transactions.
Why?
Because they don't know me.
They don't know how to be that advisor.
They're not a loan officer.
There's tons of loan officers who are, you know, like, unfortunately the ones that give
this position and this industry a bad name that can close a deal to save their lives
(14:55):
because they don't know how to be an advisor.
So I think it's a good thing.
I think it's a good thing for the industry to finally be in a situation where we have
to almost purge and clean up.
In the dirt a little bit, right?
Yeah.
I feel like I shouldn't be here and I feel bad saying it in such a negative way, but
it's true, right?
Yeah.
And here's the deal, Rob.
(15:16):
I mean, I come on and do these lives all the time and I give all the knowledge that
I can, right?
Because if they're listening, it's time for them to listen, right?
Like, obviously we're all doing something right and closing deals and have business
(15:36):
in the pipeline for a reason.
If they do the same thing, they'll have the same results.
Yeah.
You know, I mean, a little education goes a long way in this industry, you know.
Absolutely, absolutely.
And you have to.
You have to.
There's, there's just some, you know, I always say this is one of the most convoluted decisions
(15:57):
and transactions any human being can enter into, right?
And it takes a lot of moving part and it takes a lot of knowledge.
So I don't see it any other way.
To provide a good consumer or customer or buy experience, you have to be the educator.
You have to teach them.
You have to hold their hands.
(16:18):
You have to walk with them through the process because it's a very convoluted process.
And again, one of the biggest decisions anybody makes in their lifetime.
Awesome.
Well, I'm glad that we cut up today.
I know we were a little bit later than our original timeline.
I had a customer on the line that I had to take extra time to educate.
(16:39):
I appreciate being, being a patient with me.
I appreciate that.
Yeah.
Well, hey, thanks for coming on and we'll talk to you next time.
All right.
We'll do it next week again.
Thanks.
Thanks for Taking care.
Hey, what's up Rob?
(00:16):
How you been man?
Hey man, how are you?
Happy new year I guess.
This is our first live after the, after the holidays right?
Yeah, how were your holidays?
Were they good?
It was good.
Yeah, we had a good time.
It was so needed, although you know how it is, you end up working through the holidays
because that's when customers have free time so they start texting you.
(00:38):
That's when they're sitting around thinking, huh, what house should I be looking at today?
Texting over addresses and you know.
So man, I've been making a lot of phone calls, you know, that's my job.
That's our job.
We had calling people just nonstop every day and having conversations, you know, and one
(01:04):
conversation that I've been repeatedly having with people and they completely seem like
they're getting misinformation on what interest rates are and how they're trending.
Yeah, yeah, that seems to be a pretty, pretty tough thing to actually get right for any
loan officer or anybody in mortgages.
(01:26):
And the reason for that is rates change every day.
So when when you're having a conversation about getting somebody pre approved, you're
talking and thinking about it through the lens of the rates of that day.
And most loan officers don't have the time nor knowledge to think about it, to try to
extrapolate and think maybe three months in advance, especially in an economic environments
(01:50):
like the one we're in right now where it's so volatile.
So what are you hearing?
One guy told me that he thought interest rates were up to like 9%.
I was like, oh, no.
Well, definitely not.
Definitely not.
God save us if we get to that point.
I mean, that's going to be rough.
I mean, I mean, I check him.
I check them daily, obviously, even sometimes three or four times throughout the day.
(02:13):
And that, you know, you start seeing some some rates in the in the mid to high fives.
It's the first time we see them for the last four or five months.
So it is soft, it is soft, I would call this, it is softening up.
Again, it changes it varies every day.
So today was kind of like a little up, but the last couple of weeks has been going down.
(02:39):
For the last four months, the rates have gone up there all the way to the 7% mark.
It's a very, very tough interest rate for most first time home buyers and it basically
eliminates a lot of buyers from the pool, right?
Because a lot of people can really afford a housing 7% interest rate.
(03:00):
So now you know me, I'm a positive guy.
So I always try to think about it as positive.
It actually works for the for the well qualified buyers.
And even the first time home buyers that barely qualify.
Why?
Because it eliminates a lot of people from the competition.
You and I remember right back in the first quarter, even part of the second quarter of
(03:24):
2022 tons of multi offer situations, right?
Right.
A lot of houses were that had two, three, four, sometimes even six and seven offers.
And you're like, I was just getting super frustrated and I mean, almost dropping out
of how do you compete with that, man?
I mean, how do you compete with six, seven other people?
(03:46):
You basically have to give up a lot of things to try to get down.
Especially when one walks in with a bag full of cash and sits down and says, hey, I want
to buy this in 10 days.
And you know, yeah, at that point they won, you know, right?
But think about the situation.
Why was there a lot of cash in the market?
One, there was a lot of investors.
Second, there were a lot of people moving tons of people moving because they could work
(04:07):
remotely.
Well, guess what?
That's not the case anymore.
The people who wanted to move, they have moved.
There's still a lot of things happening in that area, but not the amount of cash that
they have before, you know, last year.
So you don't see a lot of those situations again.
You see now, barely you get one, maybe two offers per house.
(04:29):
So a house that has been sitting in the market and, you know, if we have anybody selling a
house right now, listen and please cover your ears.
You don't want to hear that.
But if you have to sell your house, you have to consider any offer, right?
If you have to sell your house, if you're in a situation where you can wait a couple
months and see how it goes, you don't need the cash from the house.
(04:51):
You can have that house sitting there for a couple more months, then fine.
It doesn't affect you.
But if you have to sell the house, you have to consider, even if you get only one offer,
right?
So what happens is buyers have now the advantage.
Buyers can request, you know, credits in some.
So the interest rates are a little softer.
They're helping some of the buyers.
(05:13):
There's not multi-offer scenarios anymore or not as many as before.
So all in all, I think this is a great opportunity for people who are in the market to buy a house.
If they can, if they get pre-approved, go for it.
Absolutely.
And, you know, I like that you brought up that we get to negotiate a seller's credit
again, you know, the last two listings that Janelle and I have sold.
(05:36):
They included $12,500 seller's credit to buy down the buyer's rating.
That's incredible.
That's incredible that you've been able to do that.
I mean, unheard of in the last probably five years.
Yeah.
We haven't been able to play with seller credits for a while.
And from the buyer side, that's like the most fun part of my job is negotiating stuff
(05:59):
like that and getting it written in contract and making sure that my buyers are protected
on the negotiation.
You know, I mean, they almost deserve it, right?
Like after what they've been through being beat out by so many different cash investors
and, you know, like you're talking about transplants from the Bay Area, from bigger cities, you
(06:25):
know, we're a smaller town here in Yuba City, you know?
And it's just such a relief being able to feel like I'm doing my job again and being
able to help the buyers.
Yeah, exactly.
To be their advocate on their behalf, you know?
Yeah.
(06:46):
The kind of the local people who live there, who have lived there for a long time and they're
really wanting to go for that, to accomplish that dream of owning a home.
Yeah.
And if you're ever in kind of going away little by little or at least becoming harder and harder
over time, it's good to have that opportunity to actually help them out, right?
And get them some credits and get them in the house.
(07:07):
So, yeah, it's a very satisfying kind of position.
Now I do have bad news.
I don't know how long that's going to last.
I think, you know, interestingly enough, the Fed is, as I said in our last live about
two weeks ago, the Fed is determined to figure this out.
(07:31):
They know they have printed too much money.
And they don't actually print money anymore.
Right.
Everything is digital, right?
So they've flooded the economy with tons of money and not just this government, previous
government too.
Right.
(07:52):
And I think that we have to do it too.
So it's both parties, right, as I mentioned before.
Right.
The economy is flooded.
They know that the only way to fight inflation is to keep at it, to keep increasing interest
rates.
So that's not going to stop.
What has changed though this year seems like is, you know, what we're looking at right
(08:12):
now is what's going to happen with the Treasury, any year Treasury.
What is going to happen to that return?
What's going to happen to the job market, right?
It seems to be strong.
I hope it stays strong.
But you know, we'll see.
And so I guess what I'm trying to say is there's other factors that affect mortgage rates
(08:33):
that is not just what the Fed says in terms of increasing the rates.
And those other factors might keep the rates where they are right now.
Sales volume is going to be very important if we continue the current very low sales
volume.
Right.
Not much to, you know, not much the mortgage industry can do to keep mortgages going.
(08:55):
So I think that environment will dictate where we go from here.
But you know, we'll see if the rates stay low or can go lower than what they are right
now is going to bring more people back to buy houses.
And if the jobs are stable, bring more people back, there will be more competition sometime
(09:17):
middle of the year.
So we'll see.
I'm not into predictions.
I hate predictions.
I know.
Same here.
You're probably wrong.
When we look at all the evidence, I mean, every single year, you know, we see the
these ebbs and flows.
And yeah, right now in January, I'm noticing a lot more buyer activity.
(09:39):
You know, I mean, I've sent a number of people over to you in the last, oh yeah, right.
And that has everything to do with the fact that people are starting to kind of like calm
down from from getting beat up and starting to heal.
And they're like, okay.
(09:59):
Yeah.
Let's give it a shot.
You know, and like you said, that's going to cause more competition because if we have
more people wanting to purchase houses and lower inventory, you know, but it's a different
kind of competition because they're, you know, they're all buyers with a loan attached to
(10:24):
them.
It's not you're trying to compete with cash.
That's what we were going through, you know, eight months ago, and that was just a failing
system for anybody that had like an FHA, USDA, those kinds of loans.
It just made it impossible for them to get accepted.
(10:46):
Right.
And I, and now, now we're seeing, you know, more FHA, more USDA VA loans being being accepted
by by sellers, you know, I mean, it.
Yeah, you're absolutely right.
You know, what's interesting is the, what I noticed is people that, you know, because
(11:07):
you send me a couple of customers that need to be looked at and, but it's the same with
every realtor that is kind of going through that pool of buyers that got discouraged in
2022 and 2021 did not make it happen.
They couldn't figure it out and they come with a little bit of PTSD if I, if I, if I
(11:30):
may say so, they, you know, they're very weary, they're worried, they don't jump into the
conversation right away.
They kind of push it off a little bit.
But once you get them pre approved and once you actually do the work to make sure that
they stand as a solid buyer, right, because they realize this is my chance and this is
(11:52):
my window.
So, so I think, you know, I'm, I'm an eternal positive guy, optimist.
So as much as, as much as we are in a very talk and very unique, volatile environment,
I think things are going to, I'm going to start panning out and things are going to
start becoming a little bit better.
(12:13):
But I think so too.
Not without a lot of more work from realtors and mortgage advisors.
Well, and that's the thing too, you know, like, I love that you touched on the fact
that people are have maybe a little PTSD from, from getting beat up for two years, you know,
now I've totally changed my conversation when I call people, you know, instead of being
(12:36):
salesy and pushy and, you know, that guy that's calling them for the sales call that
they don't want to be on.
Right.
I'm like, Hey, this is Matt Moreno with Moreno real estate team.
I'm just reaching out to my base to talk to the people and have that conversation.
You have any questions right about the market right now or, you know, and just start them
(12:58):
off soft because it they've, they've been through a lot in the last couple of years,
you know, and I've noticed that coming at them with the approach of kind of being the
educator and the advisor is a whole lot better of conversation.
They want to keep me on the phone.
And then, you know, the more they start asking questions, the more that we realize, okay,
(13:26):
let's start moving forward.
Let's see what we can do to get you pre-approved, to get you keys in your hand and into a home,
you know.
Yeah, that's a great comment.
However, it's still, as you said, it's much more, it's much more work, right?
It's when you have an environment where things are moving pretty fast and buyers have to
compete, it's you have the luxury as a realtor or a mortgage advisor to pick who you would
(13:51):
talk to.
And you have a luxury of saying, listen, be that kind of celsi guy and say like, hey,
listen, my time is precious too.
Your time is important.
You're trying to buy it.
You're trying to figure it out.
My time is precious too.
I have five other people knocking on the door.
But right now, we, it's, I think it's a good thing that it forces loan officers and realtors
(14:12):
to be an advisor, to be a true representative, a true advocate for the buyer.
And it's a luxury we didn't have before, I guess, is that the market pushes us to do
that.
But it also does something super interesting that we touched on our last conversation,
which is it weeds out the people who don't have the knowledge, who don't have the experience,
(14:33):
who cannot play the role.
So there's a lot of realtors out there that are not closing transactions.
Why?
Because they don't know me.
They don't know how to be that advisor.
They're not a loan officer.
There's tons of loan officers who are, you know, like, unfortunately the ones that give
this position and this industry a bad name that can close a deal to save their lives
(14:55):
because they don't know how to be an advisor.
So I think it's a good thing.
I think it's a good thing for the industry to finally be in a situation where we have
to almost purge and clean up.
In the dirt a little bit, right?
Yeah.
I feel like I shouldn't be here and I feel bad saying it in such a negative way, but
it's true, right?
Yeah.
And here's the deal, Rob.
(15:16):
I mean, I come on and do these lives all the time and I give all the knowledge that
I can, right?
Because if they're listening, it's time for them to listen, right?
Like, obviously we're all doing something right and closing deals and have business
(15:36):
in the pipeline for a reason.
If they do the same thing, they'll have the same results.
Yeah.
You know, I mean, a little education goes a long way in this industry, you know.
Absolutely, absolutely.
And you have to.
You have to.
There's, there's just some, you know, I always say this is one of the most convoluted decisions
(15:57):
and transactions any human being can enter into, right?
And it takes a lot of moving part and it takes a lot of knowledge.
So I don't see it any other way.
To provide a good consumer or customer or buy experience, you have to be the educator.
You have to teach them.
You have to hold their hands.
(16:18):
You have to walk with them through the process because it's a very convoluted process.
And again, one of the biggest decisions anybody makes in their lifetime.
Awesome.
Well, I'm glad that we cut up today.
I know we were a little bit later than our original timeline.
I had a customer on the line that I had to take extra time to educate.
(16:39):
I appreciate being, being a patient with me.
I appreciate that.
Yeah.
Well, hey, thanks for coming on and we'll talk to you next time.
All right.
We'll do it next week again.
Thanks.
Thanks for Taking care.
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