How has the pandemic shaped the future of commercial development? This week we're looking at the future of commercial and industrial development, exploring the future of healthcare centers and models, and considering the future of residential development in response to the lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic.
This week's episode features Guy Leibler, President of Simone Healthcare Development, and Kevin Plunkett, Director of Strategic Initiatives at Simone Development.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
We are experiencing a paradigm shift, a fundamental
change in the way we usually dothings.
We are intentionally choosing tosee the silver lining
opportunity arises.
We can shine a light on thethings that weren't working well
(00:25):
on those things that weren'treally working at all, we can
regroup reevaluate andre-engineer it's time to explore
new patterns and paradigms thosethat inspire us to rise above
the chaos and explore how theconditions of today and take us
(00:47):
to a better tomorrow patternsand paradigms the pattern
podcast from Hudson Valleypattern for progress.
You're listening to season two,episode 20, the future of
commercial development with yourhost pattern, president and CEO,
Jonathan drop.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Hi everyone, and welcome to patterns and
paradigms.
Our last guest, Chris silver hasbeen a true innovator and
developer within the programmingand management of theaters in
the Hudson Valley.
We hope you enjoyed the episode.
Please remember to subscribe tous at Apple podcasts or wherever
(01:28):
you find your favorite podcasts.
Please take a moment also toshare an episode with a friend,
um, go back and look in ourlibrary.
The conversations is stillrelevant today.
This week's bubble or trend theI word inflation.
This is a big one.
Are we headed to a prolongedperiod of rising prices?
(01:53):
Clearly supply chain shortagesin semiconductors lumber, even
chlorine for pools are leadingto forced increases in multiple
areas for price.
Each item has a story, butcollectively they add up to
weight inflation in prices thatwe have not seen in more than a
(02:19):
decade.
Well, this lead to the fedreserve, rethinking their
strategy for keeping interestrates low.
The good news is that there isdemand that the economy seems to
want to expand, but likeeverything else, if you have
resources you can afford to paymore.
(02:41):
But if you don't then inflationis just one more thing that is
making your life harder bubbleor trend.
We will have to keep an eye onthis.
So I'm here with my partnerpattern, Joe Cheika and with our
guests today, being owners ofover one plus acres of land near
(03:02):
Stuart airport, which is ourregional airport for the Hudson
Valley.
I wanted to use our timetogether to see if you had any
thoughts about how do weenergize the airport itself.
Um, it's been more than a decadesince the days when they had
almost a million passengers ayear.
They're nowhere near that numberand that's not due to the
(03:25):
pandemic yet with a long runwayand second to none highway
access.
What could we do, Joe?
Well, you know, when you, whenyou think about buying a house,
you think about three things,location, location, location.
When I, when I think aboutStuart, I think about cargo,
(03:47):
cargo and cargo.
So with the continued growth ofthe warehouse distribution
centers, Amazon coming in,they're opening here in orange
County, they're opening inDuchess County.
And I say, opening, you look atthese complexes, you can't
measure it really in squarefeet, you have to measure them
in acres.
(04:07):
These things are 25 to 30 acresin size.
They're enormous.
So that amount of cargo comingthrough this region, I think
that Stuart has been and willcontinue to be an amazing cargo
hub.
And if you continue to look sortof down the line of what I would
say, some obvious fits aviationtechnology center, a flight
(04:31):
school, manufacturing ofaviation equipment, um, a food
distribution hub.
We are, we're so close to theblack dirt region of orange
County, where is an amazing opyou know, they've been growing
vegetables there for years.
(04:51):
Joe, could you imagine a foodhub there where you could, if
you needed to hop on a plane todeliver something somewhere
else, or you needed, you had theroad infrastructure to get goods
to anywhere you wanted to yeah,exactly.
Or goods could fly in from otherparts of the country and you
could get them to the greenmarket quickly in New York city,
(05:14):
but I it's just positionedreally, really well.
And the last thought I had wasour idea of creating a
manufacturing center for modularhomes.
Why not build a smart technologycenter for modular home
construction right there on theairport.
(05:35):
Materials could fly in materialscan be trucked in, and then you
could ship actually the boxesback out on larger cargo planes.
And if you do it with a, with asmart technology in mind that
produces not just a constructionjob of laborers, putting
together frames and things, butit could include things in
(05:59):
technology.
So the contractors working therecould be developing apps that
are somehow installed withinthe, within the modular homes
themselves.
And you could also obviouslyincorporate green building
technologies.
So those are some ideas forStuart, Joe.
I think that great.
(06:19):
Um, you know, and, and if onlythere was a think tank for the
Hudson Valley, you know, thatcould try to imagine what
steward airport could look likein the future, but we'll save
that for another day.
Absolutely.
Thanks JD.
Alrighty.
Our guests today are guideLeibler and Kevin Plunkett from
(06:43):
the Simone developmentcompanies, Simone specializes in
the development of commercialhealthcare, industrial retail,
and residential properties inthe tri-state area.
And of course, here in theHudson Valley Simone's portfolio
includes more than 100properties and exceeds over 7
(07:06):
million square feet guy is thepresident for Simone healthcare
development and brings more than35 years of experience in the
real estate industry.
Kevin is their director ofstrategic initiatives.
Kevin is a lawyer with vastexperience in both the public
and private sector guy.
(07:27):
And Kevin are joining us toshare their insights into where
commercial development may beheading.
Good morning guy.
And good morning, Kevin, how areyou both doing personally and,
and when, and where was your ahamoment that we were going to be
in the thick of things?
Speaker 3 (07:45):
Uh, John, nice to see you and thank you for patterns,
for progress, for bringing theSimone team on and, and the
small health care team on andwhere guy Leibler and I are
honored to be part of thispodcast and part of the efforts
of your great organization thatI've worked with for so long.
Um, you know, I, I, it reallyhit me John and March of 2020
(08:07):
when one of my colleagues fromgovernment who was about my age,
took sick after having visited adoctor and, and for weeks was
being intubated at a localhospital and unfortunately
passed away.
And I think, you know, thereality of, of what we were
facing as a, as a smallcommunity, I live in Tarrytown
(08:28):
where one of our residents hadpassed away from this virus and
this pandemic.
And then when we were facing asa, as a, as a region, as a
state, as a, as a nation and asa world really hit home.
So, um, if you were to say, askme when my aha moment was, it
was when I, I, I realized thatthe disease was, uh, was deadly,
(08:51):
uh, with people close to me.
So it was a, it was anawakening, I
Speaker 4 (08:56):
Would say that was a moment in time.
No question about, sorry aboutthat, Kevin.
No problem guy.
Speaker 5 (09:04):
So, so for me, I, um, I was, um, in Los Angeles on the
26th and seventh and eighth of2020, um, I was with a friend,
uh, who runs, um, a globalorganization.
(09:24):
And, um, she was having meetingsin the Los Angeles office and
spent the entire day, uh, on thephone with their offices in Hong
Kong and were, she was hearingof just chaos, uh, within the
community and, um, a lot of sickpeople, uh, and need for
(09:47):
shipping, um, all kinds of PPE,uh, over, uh, to the Island, uh,
from anywhere possible, uh,because people were becoming, uh
, sick and, uh, and, and theconversations early on were,
what are we going to do aboutour people and offices and how
are we going to serve ourclients?
(10:08):
And, you know, for all of us wholived through the financial
crisis of 20 2007 and eight and1991, and the.com bust, uh, that
was just about money.
And we always say, you know, aslong as you have your health,
you got everything.
(10:29):
And, and, um, it was thatconversation that really hit
that this was going to bedifferent than anything else
that I had experienced, uh, inmy, in my business career.
And, um, I underestimated, uh,what the, the depths of, of what
this was going to become when,of course we realize when you,
(10:51):
you drive, when I happened tohave had a need to drive through
, through Manhattan in March andApril of last year, and there
was no one on the streets, noone, uh, it was like a scifi
movie to be a stores wereboarded up, the streets were
empty.
And, um, it's just somethingthat we could never have
(11:12):
imagined.
And, uh, you know, um, I givetremendous amount of credit, uh,
to the healthcare industry andto the scientists, uh, who have
really carried us through this,uh, uh, everybody else either
was watching or got in the way,but congratulations to the
(11:34):
healthcare workers, into thescientists, uh, for, for leading
us through this.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
So let, let's talk about Simone and let's talk
about what does your company do.
Remember this is, this is apodcast, so we can't assume that
our listeners know who Simoneis.
So let's there, and, and let'sexplain who you are, what your
areas are in, in commercialdevelopment.
Speaker 5 (12:02):
Sure.
So Sloan development companiesis, is an organization that has
been in business for more than50 years.
We are now in third generation,um, of, uh, family members, uh,
uh, Patricia and Joanna Simoneare the granddaughters of, of
Pat Simone who founded thecompany.
(12:22):
And Joe Simone is now ourpresident, uh, and chief
executive.
Um, our, uh, business, uh,operates in, in the tri-state
metropolitan region where we arenow exploring opportunities in
Florida, but we really are a NewYork, Connecticut, New Jersey
organization, uh, with most ofour business interest today in
(12:47):
the warehouse and logisticssector.
Uh, and we've been in thewarehouse, uh, uh, sector since
the beginning of, uh, thecompany's life, uh, warehousing
in the Bronx and lowerWestchester, which has now
expanded, uh, throughout thetri-state region.
And of course today, if you callit logistics, you can probably
(13:08):
double the value of yourproperties.
Um, and, um, I think that, uh,you know, we're very, uh,
inquisitive.
Uh, we, we are, uh, activelybuying and have been buying more
and more warehouse locations,and it seems whatever we, we get
our hands on Amazon is about ahalf a step behind us.
Uh, uh, either they're acompetitor or they become a
(13:30):
tenant.
And, uh, the other act of, uh,sector for us as the healthcare
industry where we've beenengaged for more than 20 years
in working with, uh, the, thelarger, um, systems, uh, in the
region, healthcare providers andthe multi-specialty groups in,
(13:51):
um, work with them to build outtheir ambulatory footprint.
We know that, uh, whether it'sby, by cost or, or by government
, uh, uh, activity, uh, throughlegislation that the need to
pull more and more of theservices outside of the hospital
, um, is important because ofcosts and, and, you know,
(14:15):
fortunately because oftechnology and pharmacology,
there are things that can bedone equally as well, or better
outside of the hospital buildingtoday.
And as we've seen in the lastyear and a quarter with the
COVID-19, uh, impact, um, doingcertain, getting ambulatory
surgery outside of the hospitalis important because that's
(14:39):
where the systems actually makemoney.
Um, and if that had to be shutdown as it was for many, many,
many months, really from Marchthrough the third quarter of
last year, uh, one, you and Ican't have the procedures that
we need.
Uh, and two, the hospital can'tgenerate the revenue that it
(15:00):
needs, because it's veryexpensive to take care of
someone in the medicine.
When you go to the hospital,you're going through two doors
effectively, you're goingthrough the medicine door
pneumonia for an example, thatis a cost, that's a loser for a
hospital, but when you and I arego in for a knee or a hip
(15:22):
replacement that makes money,the hospital needs to make money
on certain business lines tosupport all of the non profit
generating businesses.
There are only five or sixbusiness lines that make money.
Everything else is eithermarginal or, or it costs money.
So in order for the hospital tobe healthy and survive, it needs
(15:45):
to do surgery in order to takecare of the non-surgical
patients.
And when they shut down thesurgery, um, you know, that,
that's why the ha the hospitalsgot really hit hard last year
one, they couldn't do surgery.
And then just the sheer cost oftaking care of patients, um, uh,
for COVID, whether it was just,uh, the, the increased costs of
(16:06):
labor, uh, PPE over timeburnout, you know, there were
just so many factors that wereinvolved,
Speaker 4 (16:14):
You know, that was, if I recall from, you know,
serving on the regional controlroom, one of the most important,
um, things that happened was thehospital said, you have got to
let us do elected surgery inorder to enable us to do the
(16:34):
kind of things you're asking usto do to protect people.
And so there was a trade off invery early on.
They tried to say, well, as longas you had a certain amount of
ICU beds, and maybe we canfigure out how to let you do
other kinds of work, but, um,your, your work in particular
guy is in the healthcare area, Ibelieve.
And, and, um, so where do youthink we're going post COVID
(16:58):
because, you know, telehealthhas become, um, we had to resort
to it.
Um, and then, you know, I'vebeen listening to, uh, the world
wall street journal every year,does this future of everything.
So I've been listening to it thelast couple of days, and, and
there's a lot of implanting oftechnology to monitor diabetes,
(17:22):
to monitor your heart, to try tosay on a regular basis, you're
okay.
Or no, you need to get to ahospital.
Is this going to change thebusiness models for how much
physical plant or capital, youknow, construction needs to be
done?
Speaker 5 (17:42):
Yeah.
So on, on two levels, there willbe more and more physical, um,
places to go for your healthcareoutside of the hospital.
We've been doing this for anumber of years, and I believe
we're going to be doing this foranother decade.
(18:04):
Uh, just creating more and moreretail type establishments for
healthcare that you can get to,uh, you know, five or 10 or 15
minutes from your home that arecertainly not institutional.
They're very walked in.
They're very friendly, you'llhave an appointment, um, but you
will not be in the hospital.
(18:24):
I, I, I believe that hospitalsare going to be a place for
trauma for very sick people, forvery specialized in high-end,
uh, procedures, uh, high risk,uh, delivery for babies.
And the rest of it, I think, isgoing to get pushed out more and
(18:45):
more to ambulatory facilitiesthat are either surgical or
nonsurgical.
Um, I do believe that thattelehealth is here to stay.
It was certainly became veryvaluable.
We, I had a few tele-health, uh,appointments during the
pandemic.
I thought they were great.
They will never replace going tosee your doctor when necessary,
(19:08):
but they will become a part, nota replacement in healthcare for
seeing your doctor at thein-person, but a part of our
healthcare.
And I think that, you know, the,the, the pandemic has
accelerated a lot of things.
It certainly will accelerate thebuilding of new facilities that
are more sophisticated and saferand better mechanical systems,
(19:32):
but it did, um, uh, givetele-health a real kick forward.
Um, and, um, I think it's great.
Um, I also, you know, I knowthat, uh, you know, what, where,
where, where, what is the newwaiting room, uh, to, to see the
doctor?
And the joke is it's the frontseat of your car?
(19:53):
Um, I think that's true in part,um, I took my dog to the vet
last night.
Of course, you don't bring thedog in any longer.
Somebody comes out, gets the dogfrom the car and brings the dog
back.
I don't know if that's going tostay forever.
I don't think so.
I, I I've been going in, um, Ihave a monthly appointment.
(20:14):
See my physician, uh, um, I go,I wait, you know, they're only
sick, you know, every six chairis available.
Um, I think as we're allvaccinated, we're going to
return to a more normal, um,course of business.
It won't be like it was in 2019in December of 2019, but we will
(20:37):
move back to a norm.
We're going to go back to theYankee game where the met game,
uh, we're going to go back totheater on September 14th.
You know, people, you know,Goldman Sachs says they want
everybody back in the office inJune.
Um, we're going to get there.
Um, but we'll get there a littlebit differently and we're all
(20:57):
going to become a germaphobe.
Um, um, I never paid attentionto that stuff, but I do now, uh,
we're gonna wash our hands more.
If somebody sneaks is we'regoing to walk away.
Um, you know, we're, we're,we're, we're all going to live
at a slightly higher level of,of, uh, of concern, but I do
look forward to a more normal,the new normal, and I, you know,
(21:23):
I know we all go what's that,and I don't know what it is, but
we'll get where we'll find,
Speaker 3 (21:29):
You know, John one, one of the areas that, uh, that
I'm following as the director ofstrategic initiatives for the
Simone team is
Speaker 5 (21:37):
You're frozen.
I hope not.
Let's see.
Speaker 4 (21:41):
I can hear Kevin fine,
Speaker 3 (21:45):
That we're following I'm following is the federally
qualified health center, Q H C's, um, which are, um, the, uh,
clinics and outpatientfacilities for a lot of the
people in our inner cities andyou're, and you're beginning to
see the federal government, uh,through the American recovery
act and in different, uh, otherpots of money to support the, uh
(22:10):
, the models that are turning upin some of our, our, our more
dense areas, because people needhealthcare, primary healthcare,
uh, across the board.
So we're beginning to see anumber of the different health
centers become more, uh, moreinvolved in delivery of health
(22:31):
services in the inner cities andthe dense community.
So I think you're going to see,as guy says, uh, uh, changing,
uh, changing healthcareenvironment, um, in, in our, our
whole region, uh, which includessome of the big cities that we
all deal with in Westchester upin orange County, where you are.
So I think there's, as guy says,there'll be a new normal, and we
(22:54):
haven't gotten there yet.
We're on our way to get there.
Speaker 4 (22:57):
Absolutely.
But as, as developers, so there,it's hard to know, you know,
guy, you gave that image back in, um, you know, March, April,
may of last year of New Yorkcity being empty, but being in
the development world andworking in the tri-state region,
(23:18):
is there concerns on your partabout how Manhattan New York
city comes back and how doesthat compare to let's say
Westchester or other parts ofthe Hudson Valley?
Speaker 5 (23:33):
So of course we all know that everything's
connected.
Um, I believe that New York citywill, um, return and will be
vibrant once again.
I think that as human beings, we, we want interaction.
(23:55):
We want, um, stimulation, uh,which means restaurants and,
and, and the theater and amuseum.
We want culture.
Uh, we are, you know, we are aevolved people.
Um, and, and, uh, um, I thinkwe're all just jamming forward.
(24:15):
I, I went out to dinner onSaturday night, um, and I was
never so happy to sit at a bar,talk to the bartender, um, have
a good time, have a few drinks,um, and pay my bill and, and,
and, and put a big fat fat tipon it for the bartender who just
(24:36):
was the nicest man who I, uh,who I just missed.
I never met him before, but Imissed him and it was so good to
see him.
Um, and I do think, and I'm, I'm, um, I'm looking forward to
theater coming back and I'mlooking forward to all of the
restaurants opening, what I'mreally looking forward to is to
see all that.
I can't say it all that darnplastic that separates all of us
(24:58):
going away.
Um, and I think as, as we'revaccinated, it will happen.
Um, I can tell you here atsomeone development companies,
we are extremely optimistic, uh,about coming back to business,
to new opportunities, um, and,and finding them and helping our
(25:19):
clients, um, fulfill their,their, their business needs,
whether it's on the healthcaresector or the industrial sector.
We think that there is avibrancy that wants to return.
Um, people are tired of workingfrom home.
Um, they're tired of eatingsandwiches at their desk, uh,
and, and we want to reengage,and I think that it will be, uh,
(25:43):
very exciting for New York forWestchester and the Hudson
Valley.
I think what we've seen in, in,in residential, um, housing, uh,
for our respective counties isexciting because, um, the folks,
um, you know, not that you areKevin and I did it, um, but we
(26:06):
all know people who sold theirhomes, uh, over the last year,
um, to younger people withyounger children, which is great
for the communities.
It's great for the schools.
It's great for the localmerchants.
Um, and I think that, um, it'spart of the natural course.
And I, I do believe there were alot of people who, you know, I
(26:28):
also, I I've, you know, we allhave friends who live in
Manhattan and I didn't see it,but I have friends who told me
that the moving trucks were justlined up outside of the
apartments buildings every daythat people couldn't out of the
city fast enough, but, and, andinto Westchester and into
Rockland County just to buy ahouse.
(26:50):
But that means that there are alot of apartments in New York
that are available.
And I really believe that overthe next year, the rental
apartments are going to getrented.
Uh, the co-ops and the condoswill find a new level of, of,
for absorption.
It's going to take a little bitof time, and yes, there, you
know, in every, every businesslocation, there are winners and
(27:14):
losers.
Um, and, uh, uh, um, you know,as Livan health Helms said,
there are winners and losers andI'm South of the line.
Um, but you know, there arethose that are North of the line
also, by the way.
Yeah, I know is, I know that'swhy I gave you that because you
(27:34):
would know it, you know, I chosethat one selectively Jonathan,
um, uh, that was for you.
Um, but you're welcome, but, youknow, there's this, there's,
we're, we're going to get backto, to, uh, to another level, to
a new place.
And I think that, um,everybody's gonna find their
(27:56):
spot and, uh, um, I'm glad I'mgoing to be able to participate
in and it's going to beexciting.
Speaker 4 (28:04):
Well, right now, I think there's, there's no
question the market that we'veseen housing market, um, there
is virtue there.
We're getting to the point of nosupply in the Hudson Valley.
So winners and losers as peoplehave moved out of the city.
And, and by the way, I, I knowthis is no supply in the Hudson
(28:25):
Valley.
If we had an enormous number ofpeople, 10,000 new families move
up to the Hudson Valley, they'dnever know it in New York city.
So I'm not really worried thatNew York city, you know, it is
to our benefit, but New Yorkcity you'd be fine.
You know, guide, you mentionedthat a lot of Simone's work is
in warehouse and logistics.
(28:47):
And right now there's a lot oftalk about supply chain issues
from lumbered to, um, even I wasreading about chlorine for
swimming pools is not available.
Do you, is there an opportunityor, or how long, or it just has
to work its way through thesystem, almost like the, uh,
(29:10):
what was it, the gas pipelines,you know.
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (29:13):
Yeah.
I, I think that, you know, thebig one of course is his
computer chips that during,during for cars that during the
pandemic, all of the factoriesturned their attention to making
chips for laptops and zooms andcomputers and, and, uh, they
stop making chips for cars.
(29:34):
And now, you know, you can't geta new car, uh, because they're
all shut down waiting for chips.
Um, it will take some time, uh,for the supply chain, whether
it's lumber, concrete glass.
Um, uh, and I got a note from,from my pool, um, um, um, guy,
(29:56):
uh, like two months ago tellingme that, uh, a signup early open
your pool early, there's ashortage of everything, uh, you
know, chlorine and there's ashortage of everything in his
business, but it's true for allof us.
We've watched, um, uh,construction prices just go
stupid crazy in the last threemonths.
And I mean, I don't mean like a5%.
(30:18):
I mean, some things are doublingin price pipe, uh, and not, you
know, just silly things andthat's just supply chain and we
will see that return to a morenormal, but we've been getting
3% increases every year in, in,in construction costs.
And I think this year we'reprobably going to be 5% and the
things that have doubled willcome back and, you know, it, it
(30:40):
is shocking how valuable that,that, um, oil, the colonial oil
pipeline is.
I heard last night that the, youwould need 10,000 tanker trucks
a day, um, to equal the amountof oil that, that pipeline
delivers every day.
That's just shocking andphenomenal about how important
(31:03):
our infrastructure is.
And if we don't protect it,whether it's through physical
improvements or from hacking, wejust have to protect, uh, with
reinvestment to ourinfrastructure and protected
from cyber, um, uh, insecurity.
But we have to make sure thatthose pipelines are, are, are
(31:24):
physically, uh, improved everyyear.
You know, it's no different thanjust, you know, every year
making the improvements to yourhouse or taking your car to the,
to the mechanic.
We need to take care of, of ourinfrastructure.
We're very, um, um, you know,we're, we're, we're at a very,
we're very sensitive, uh, to adisruption.
(31:45):
Um, and we just have torecognize it in today's age.
Speaker 4 (31:48):
I want to make certain, we have time to fully
discuss.
So Simone properties zones overa hundred acres, right in the
heart of the Hudson Valley, nearStewart airport pattern has for
my 15 years been trying tofigure out this, uh, this, this
(32:09):
what finally energizes theStuart airport or the area
around it.
It is just a great combinationof transportation.
There is, uh, an airport, uh,the highway system around it is
first.
Great.
Um, any thoughts about what youmight do with the a hundred plus
(32:31):
acres there?
Speaker 5 (32:33):
Um, I'll take this one, please.
Team made a commitment a few
Speaker 3 (32:40):
Years ago to the, to this, uh, Stuart airport.
Um, as you know, you mentioned15 years, I've been involved in
discussions on a steward for,for 25 years.
And, um, um, uh, before thepandemic, uh, the, the Simone
team actually had receivedapproval from the town of new
Windsor to put up a phase onebuilding, which was, uh, a
(33:05):
hotel.
Yeah.
And they had a flag and we'reready to pull permits when, of
course the pandemic hit andcaused us to have to rethink and
reevaluate what's what's best upthere.
Uh, one of the things guysmentioned, um, his warehouses,
uh, logistic facilities, uh, asyou, as you just mentioned, the,
(33:27):
the, he couldn't have a, abetter location for, uh, the, uh
, uh, transportation sector.
Uh, whether it be the roadnetwork, we have the longest,
one of the longest runways atthe world.
I think it's due at airport.
Uh, so you could bring in cargoplanes.
So we're, you know, we are stillreevaluating post pandemic, and
(33:51):
we're not post you Edward, we'recoming out of it, hopefully for
everybody, you know, what wouldbe the best uses up there?
We have a few hospital networksin that area.
Montefiore came into, uh, to bepart of St.
Luke's.
Um, so, you know, there may beneed for medical offices,
warehouses, uh, officebuildings.
Uh, you heard, I heard guysspeaking about, you know, uh, a
(34:15):
lot of the businesses may berethinking about New York versus
the suburbs, Jamie diamond.
A few weeks ago, I spoke aboutJP Morgan chase, uh, may not
have all of its space needs inthe city that it had before.
So, you know, it's really, it'sreally a moving target up there,
but I think the word that youuse, which is really the
opposite word is, you know, theenergy.
(34:37):
I think, I think whether it bethe residential market that you
would get, I just spoke about,uh, in the suburbs and in the us
or the Valley region or the, orthe commercial market or the
office market, or the healthcaremarket where we are guys, uh,
has its finger on the pulse ofwhat's happening.
We think there's a lot of energythat's going to be feeding, uh,
(34:59):
that the airport, one of theproblems, one of the, it is a
New York, New Jersey portauthority airport.
And when you have JFK and youhave Newark and you have
LaGuardia, and then you havesteward, uh, you know, all of us
could make a decision on wherethe emphasis is going to be for,
for, for the big dollars thatare needed, uh, to make sure the
(35:23):
airport is a big success, butwith the pandemic ending with,
uh, uh, airlines returning tosteward for commercial prac
travel, um, we think, we thinkthere's, there's an energy.
That's the word for thatairport?
And we were bullish on, on theregion, but bullish and orange
County, uh, the new Windsorarea.
(35:45):
So, and that whole, that wholegeographic area is something
that Simone Simone team feels isgoing to be the future.
As you mentioned it,
Speaker 4 (35:54):
That's, that's great news.
Um, guy, I want to just get yourtake on Amazon for a minute.
Cause you said, you know, everytime they're either, right, you
know, either a step behind youor, you know, you can always
sort of feel them.
So before the pandemic, therewas a million square feet, um,
(36:14):
planned for a Montgomery inorange County during the
pandemic, um, Amazon added600,000 square feet in Fishkill,
I believe in Duchess County.
And then what they call theirlast mile facilities in Putnam
(36:36):
Westchester, I believe, andRockland.
So not so quietly, they havefurther their footprint for
distribution and logistics andhave been hiring, you know,
there, you know, one of theproblems right now in the
workforce is like everybody issaying, we can't find people.
(36:59):
I believe some people havechosen to go to an Amazon
because it was a job.
They were paying$15 an hour.
And, um, how do you see thiswhole Amazon world playing out
with competitors?
So
Speaker 5 (37:19):
The Amazon story is, is just one that, that will go
down in history about a crazyyoung man who had an idea.
And he started with books.
And I don't know if you know,the reason that he started with
books.
(37:40):
So the reason that Jeff Bezosstarted with books is just so
basic and so simple.
And so smart books that wereunsold as part of the publishing
model got returned to thepublisher.
He had no risk.
So if you bought a hundred booksand 80 of them got sold, he got
(38:01):
to return the other 20.
That was one reason.
That's why books.
And the second of course isthey're non-perishable.
So it was brilliant.
Um, and Amazon has continued tobuild a model that functionally
is unstoppable.
Um, the only thing that can,that can and may stop Amazon
(38:24):
will be the United Statesgovernment for antitrust.
But I think for any otherreason, there is nothing that
will stop Amazon.
They have proven that they canget into any model of including
food perishables and they willcontinue to build, um, uh, um,
(38:44):
their footprint in all shapesand sizes.
We even now we'll rent space toAmazon, not for warehouse put
for trucks, truck parking, uh,because if, if you think about
it, what do you see on thestreet?
All those gray, those blue grayvans that are everywhere with a
smiley face.
So it's a model that willcontinue to grow.
(39:08):
Um, I think there will be sometrack at some point in time.
Um, I think they're trying to begood corporate citizens, and I
put that in quotes because theybet they have to look like
they're being corporate goodcorporate citizens, so they will
get shut down.
So that smiley face isn't there,you know, it's there for a
(39:28):
reason.
They want us, they want us allto think that they're our
friends.
Um, the other thing that we haveto be aware of is that the
bigger part of Amazon is, isthis part that we don't see is
that they're, they're thebiggest cloud company, um, on
the planet, you know, they, theysupport the back end for
themselves and for everybodyelse, it's a very important part
(39:51):
of their business and the newCTO that was just named to
replace Jeff.
Bezos's the man that ran thatand built that.
Um, I do believe that we'regoing to have a very strong
retail sector, physical retailsector, but it's going to be
more narrow.
(40:12):
Um, and it's going to berestaurants, of course.
Um, and it's going to be thingsthat we want to go out and buy
because we like to go out andbuy them, whether it's a bottle
of wine that we want to look atthe label, or it's a piece of
jewelry, you know, theaspirational PR um, uh, retail,
um, but for everything else, um,even I'm buying it online and,
(40:36):
and that's a big statement and Ilike to go, and I like to go to
the, I like to go to thesupermarket, I enjoy it.
I like to go pick up my ownvegetables and, and, uh, um,
know, go, go, go to the wineshop and buy that bottle of
Macallan or whatever I want thatday.
But my daughter, who's 26 buysall of her groceries online.
(41:00):
Doesn't really care about goingto a storage too, darn busy.
Um, so, you know, as I pass on,you know, over time and Kevin
and I, you know, get put in thehome, um, you know, where
someone will bring us our foodand we'll dribble, dribble it
down on our shirts.
Uh, I really do question aboutthe next generation.
And I think that we're going tosee more and more mixed use
(41:22):
where we're going to want to goto that restaurant.
Um, uh, and perhaps the wineshop will be next door.
What we're going to want to gofor aspirational shopping, to
Speaker 3 (41:34):
Not buy the pair of jeans online that get delivered.
Because, you know, we boughtthis, I'm the same size as I was
a year ago, and I can go toLevi's dot com, but I do want to
go buy a suit, or I do want togo buy a birthday gift for a
friend.
Um, and I want to see it and Iwant to have it wrapped, and I
want to give it to him or herpersonally.
(41:54):
So we all have to evolve and wecan't be stuck in our ways.
And we can't say, well, that'show I used to do it.
We better evolve where we're allgoing to be left behind.
And that's what I'm trying to dofor our business every day.
And I, and I'm trying to do itfor myself as a person every day
as well, uh, where we will beleft behind professionally
(42:15):
personally evolve.
We just have to evolve.
One thing, one thing that I knowthat patterns is very involved
with, which I think is going tobe a positive impact of all the
changes that we've talked abouttoday.
And you've mentioned is I thinkthe environment's going to be
better.
You know, there'll be less cars,uh, you know, the movement
(42:38):
already to electric vehicles.
I think, I think, I thinkthere's going to be some
positive things coming out ofwhat, what guys going to do, the
one bullet.
And I think that's good for theplanet and it's good for all of
us in the next generation.
So when guy and I were togetherin that nursing home, that guy
has put us in the nextgeneration will be enjoying a
(42:58):
little bit better, a little bitbetter planet experience that
maybe, you know, we we'veexperienced because of the
industrial revolutions that havehappened.
Speaker 4 (43:09):
So look, I think both of you want it, it seems like
there's a natural, uh, efforthere to end this conversation on
an upbeat note, both from you,Kevin and guy with you saying
the need to evolve.
And I couldn't agree with youmore that, um, there there's
something about what justhappened over the last 14 months
(43:31):
that accelerated the integrationof technology.
And everyone says, you know,what would have taken 10 years
took one year, you know?
And I think you're right, that,that the whole notion of
evolving, accepting, you know,do you guys use cash?
I haven't used cash in ages.
(43:51):
You know, I, I don't even knowwhat it look, you know, it's
like, Ooh, what's cash.
But, um, I want to give the lastword to both of you.
So anything else that you wantto put on the table as part of
the conversation?
Or are you both okay.
Speaker 3 (44:05):
Uh, okay.
Uh, yes, I am happy to end on a,on a good note.
I, I, I do think, um, the nextbunch of years could be quite
good and I agree with Kevin,we're going to live better, live
more healthy.
And if, uh, uh, the guys inWashington, you know, just don't
(44:25):
screw it up, we'll be fine,John, I just want to thank you
and your team.
I, as I said in the beginning,I've had the pleasure of working
with the patterns for many yearsand with you and your team, and
please keep up the good work.
You keep people on your, ontheir toes up there.
You know, you really, you really, uh, you really are on the
(44:46):
cutting edge of, of the issuesthat are going to make a
difference in the future.
So thanks for what you're doingand thanks for this opportunity
for Simone developmentcompanies, Samoan healthcare,
and for all of us to get our,our thoughts out on, on where
we're going to be in the future.
Yeah.
Well said,
Speaker 1 (45:03):
Thanks, Kevin.
And thanks guy.
Um, and thank you to Simone.
Um, this Jonathan dropped in onbehalf of patterns and paradigms
and everyone have a good day.
Thank you for tuning in topatterns and paradigms the
pattern podcast.
For more information about thisepisode, visit our website
(45:23):
pattern for progress.org forwardslash podcast.
We are experiencing a paradigm shift, a fundamental
change in the way we usually dothings.
We are intentionally choosing tosee the silver lining
opportunity arises.
We can shine a light on thethings that weren't working well
(00:25):
on those things that weren'treally working at all, we can
regroup reevaluate andre-engineer it's time to explore
new patterns and paradigms thosethat inspire us to rise above
the chaos and explore how theconditions of today and take us
(00:47):
to a better tomorrow patternsand paradigms the pattern
podcast from Hudson Valleypattern for progress.
You're listening to season two,episode 20, the future of
commercial development with yourhost pattern, president and CEO,
Jonathan drop.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Hi everyone, and welcome to patterns and
paradigms.
Our last guest, Chris silver hasbeen a true innovator and
developer within the programmingand management of theaters in
the Hudson Valley.
We hope you enjoyed the episode.
Please remember to subscribe tous at Apple podcasts or wherever
(01:28):
you find your favorite podcasts.
Please take a moment also toshare an episode with a friend,
um, go back and look in ourlibrary.
The conversations is stillrelevant today.
This week's bubble or trend theI word inflation.
This is a big one.
Are we headed to a prolongedperiod of rising prices?
(01:53):
Clearly supply chain shortagesin semiconductors lumber, even
chlorine for pools are leadingto forced increases in multiple
areas for price.
Each item has a story, butcollectively they add up to
weight inflation in prices thatwe have not seen in more than a
(02:19):
decade.
Well, this lead to the fedreserve, rethinking their
strategy for keeping interestrates low.
The good news is that there isdemand that the economy seems to
want to expand, but likeeverything else, if you have
resources you can afford to paymore.
(02:41):
But if you don't then inflationis just one more thing that is
making your life harder bubbleor trend.
We will have to keep an eye onthis.
So I'm here with my partnerpattern, Joe Cheika and with our
guests today, being owners ofover one plus acres of land near
(03:02):
Stuart airport, which is ourregional airport for the Hudson
Valley.
I wanted to use our timetogether to see if you had any
thoughts about how do weenergize the airport itself.
Um, it's been more than a decadesince the days when they had
almost a million passengers ayear.
They're nowhere near that numberand that's not due to the
(03:25):
pandemic yet with a long runwayand second to none highway
access.
What could we do, Joe?
Well, you know, when you, whenyou think about buying a house,
you think about three things,location, location, location.
When I, when I think aboutStuart, I think about cargo,
(03:47):
cargo and cargo.
So with the continued growth ofthe warehouse distribution
centers, Amazon coming in,they're opening here in orange
County, they're opening inDuchess County.
And I say, opening, you look atthese complexes, you can't
measure it really in squarefeet, you have to measure them
in acres.
(04:07):
These things are 25 to 30 acresin size.
They're enormous.
So that amount of cargo comingthrough this region, I think
that Stuart has been and willcontinue to be an amazing cargo
hub.
And if you continue to look sortof down the line of what I would
say, some obvious fits aviationtechnology center, a flight
(04:31):
school, manufacturing ofaviation equipment, um, a food
distribution hub.
We are, we're so close to theblack dirt region of orange
County, where is an amazing opyou know, they've been growing
vegetables there for years.
(04:51):
Joe, could you imagine a foodhub there where you could, if
you needed to hop on a plane todeliver something somewhere
else, or you needed, you had theroad infrastructure to get goods
to anywhere you wanted to yeah,exactly.
Or goods could fly in from otherparts of the country and you
could get them to the greenmarket quickly in New York city,
(05:14):
but I it's just positionedreally, really well.
And the last thought I had wasour idea of creating a
manufacturing center for modularhomes.
Why not build a smart technologycenter for modular home
construction right there on theairport.
(05:35):
Materials could fly in materialscan be trucked in, and then you
could ship actually the boxesback out on larger cargo planes.
And if you do it with a, with asmart technology in mind that
produces not just a constructionjob of laborers, putting
together frames and things, butit could include things in
(05:59):
technology.
So the contractors working therecould be developing apps that
are somehow installed withinthe, within the modular homes
themselves.
And you could also obviouslyincorporate green building
technologies.
So those are some ideas forStuart, Joe.
I think that great.
(06:19):
Um, you know, and, and if onlythere was a think tank for the
Hudson Valley, you know, thatcould try to imagine what
steward airport could look likein the future, but we'll save
that for another day.
Absolutely.
Thanks JD.
Alrighty.
Our guests today are guideLeibler and Kevin Plunkett from
(06:43):
the Simone developmentcompanies, Simone specializes in
the development of commercialhealthcare, industrial retail,
and residential properties inthe tri-state area.
And of course, here in theHudson Valley Simone's portfolio
includes more than 100properties and exceeds over 7
(07:06):
million square feet guy is thepresident for Simone healthcare
development and brings more than35 years of experience in the
real estate industry.
Kevin is their director ofstrategic initiatives.
Kevin is a lawyer with vastexperience in both the public
and private sector guy.
(07:27):
And Kevin are joining us toshare their insights into where
commercial development may beheading.
Good morning guy.
And good morning, Kevin, how areyou both doing personally and,
and when, and where was your ahamoment that we were going to be
in the thick of things?
Speaker 3 (07:45):
Uh, John, nice to see you and thank you for patterns,
for progress, for bringing theSimone team on and, and the
small health care team on andwhere guy Leibler and I are
honored to be part of thispodcast and part of the efforts
of your great organization thatI've worked with for so long.
Um, you know, I, I, it reallyhit me John and March of 2020
(08:07):
when one of my colleagues fromgovernment who was about my age,
took sick after having visited adoctor and, and for weeks was
being intubated at a localhospital and unfortunately
passed away.
And I think, you know, thereality of, of what we were
facing as a, as a smallcommunity, I live in Tarrytown
(08:28):
where one of our residents hadpassed away from this virus and
this pandemic.
And then when we were facing asa, as a, as a region, as a
state, as a, as a nation and asa world really hit home.
So, um, if you were to say, askme when my aha moment was, it
was when I, I, I realized thatthe disease was, uh, was deadly,
(08:51):
uh, with people close to me.
So it was a, it was anawakening, I
Speaker 4 (08:56):
Would say that was a moment in time.
No question about, sorry aboutthat, Kevin.
No problem guy.
Speaker 5 (09:04):
So, so for me, I, um, I was, um, in Los Angeles on the
26th and seventh and eighth of2020, um, I was with a friend,
uh, who runs, um, a globalorganization.
(09:24):
And, um, she was having meetingsin the Los Angeles office and
spent the entire day, uh, on thephone with their offices in Hong
Kong and were, she was hearingof just chaos, uh, within the
community and, um, a lot of sickpeople, uh, and need for
(09:47):
shipping, um, all kinds of PPE,uh, over, uh, to the Island, uh,
from anywhere possible, uh,because people were becoming, uh
, sick and, uh, and, and theconversations early on were,
what are we going to do aboutour people and offices and how
are we going to serve ourclients?
(10:08):
And, you know, for all of us wholived through the financial
crisis of 20 2007 and eight and1991, and the.com bust, uh, that
was just about money.
And we always say, you know, aslong as you have your health,
you got everything.
(10:29):
And, and, um, it was thatconversation that really hit
that this was going to bedifferent than anything else
that I had experienced, uh, inmy, in my business career.
And, um, I underestimated, uh,what the, the depths of, of what
this was going to become when,of course we realize when you,
(10:51):
you drive, when I happened tohave had a need to drive through
, through Manhattan in March andApril of last year, and there
was no one on the streets, noone, uh, it was like a scifi
movie to be a stores wereboarded up, the streets were
empty.
And, um, it's just somethingthat we could never have
(11:12):
imagined.
And, uh, you know, um, I givetremendous amount of credit, uh,
to the healthcare industry andto the scientists, uh, who have
really carried us through this,uh, uh, everybody else either
was watching or got in the way,but congratulations to the
(11:34):
healthcare workers, into thescientists, uh, for, for leading
us through this.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
So let, let's talk about Simone and let's talk
about what does your company do.
Remember this is, this is apodcast, so we can't assume that
our listeners know who Simoneis.
So let's there, and, and let'sexplain who you are, what your
areas are in, in commercialdevelopment.
Speaker 5 (12:02):
Sure.
So Sloan development companiesis, is an organization that has
been in business for more than50 years.
We are now in third generation,um, of, uh, family members, uh,
uh, Patricia and Joanna Simoneare the granddaughters of, of
Pat Simone who founded thecompany.
(12:22):
And Joe Simone is now ourpresident, uh, and chief
executive.
Um, our, uh, business, uh,operates in, in the tri-state
metropolitan region where we arenow exploring opportunities in
Florida, but we really are a NewYork, Connecticut, New Jersey
organization, uh, with most ofour business interest today in
(12:47):
the warehouse and logisticssector.
Uh, and we've been in thewarehouse, uh, uh, sector since
the beginning of, uh, thecompany's life, uh, warehousing
in the Bronx and lowerWestchester, which has now
expanded, uh, throughout thetri-state region.
And of course today, if you callit logistics, you can probably
(13:08):
double the value of yourproperties.
Um, and, um, I think that, uh,you know, we're very, uh,
inquisitive.
Uh, we, we are, uh, activelybuying and have been buying more
and more warehouse locations,and it seems whatever we, we get
our hands on Amazon is about ahalf a step behind us.
Uh, uh, either they're acompetitor or they become a
(13:30):
tenant.
And, uh, the other act of, uh,sector for us as the healthcare
industry where we've beenengaged for more than 20 years
in working with, uh, the, thelarger, um, systems, uh, in the
region, healthcare providers andthe multi-specialty groups in,
(13:51):
um, work with them to build outtheir ambulatory footprint.
We know that, uh, whether it'sby, by cost or, or by government
, uh, uh, activity, uh, throughlegislation that the need to
pull more and more of theservices outside of the hospital
, um, is important because ofcosts and, and, you know,
(14:15):
fortunately because oftechnology and pharmacology,
there are things that can bedone equally as well, or better
outside of the hospital buildingtoday.
And as we've seen in the lastyear and a quarter with the
COVID-19, uh, impact, um, doingcertain, getting ambulatory
surgery outside of the hospitalis important because that's
(14:39):
where the systems actually makemoney.
Um, and if that had to be shutdown as it was for many, many,
many months, really from Marchthrough the third quarter of
last year, uh, one, you and Ican't have the procedures that
we need.
Uh, and two, the hospital can'tgenerate the revenue that it
(15:00):
needs, because it's veryexpensive to take care of
someone in the medicine.
When you go to the hospital,you're going through two doors
effectively, you're goingthrough the medicine door
pneumonia for an example, thatis a cost, that's a loser for a
hospital, but when you and I arego in for a knee or a hip
(15:22):
replacement that makes money,the hospital needs to make money
on certain business lines tosupport all of the non profit
generating businesses.
There are only five or sixbusiness lines that make money.
Everything else is eithermarginal or, or it costs money.
So in order for the hospital tobe healthy and survive, it needs
(15:45):
to do surgery in order to takecare of the non-surgical
patients.
And when they shut down thesurgery, um, you know, that,
that's why the ha the hospitalsgot really hit hard last year
one, they couldn't do surgery.
And then just the sheer cost oftaking care of patients, um, uh,
for COVID, whether it was just,uh, the, the increased costs of
(16:06):
labor, uh, PPE over timeburnout, you know, there were
just so many factors that wereinvolved,
Speaker 4 (16:14):
You know, that was, if I recall from, you know,
serving on the regional controlroom, one of the most important,
um, things that happened was thehospital said, you have got to
let us do elected surgery inorder to enable us to do the
(16:34):
kind of things you're asking usto do to protect people.
And so there was a trade off invery early on.
They tried to say, well, as longas you had a certain amount of
ICU beds, and maybe we canfigure out how to let you do
other kinds of work, but, um,your, your work in particular
guy is in the healthcare area, Ibelieve.
And, and, um, so where do youthink we're going post COVID
(16:58):
because, you know, telehealthhas become, um, we had to resort
to it.
Um, and then, you know, I'vebeen listening to, uh, the world
wall street journal every year,does this future of everything.
So I've been listening to it thelast couple of days, and, and
there's a lot of implanting oftechnology to monitor diabetes,
(17:22):
to monitor your heart, to try tosay on a regular basis, you're
okay.
Or no, you need to get to ahospital.
Is this going to change thebusiness models for how much
physical plant or capital, youknow, construction needs to be
done?
Speaker 5 (17:42):
Yeah.
So on, on two levels, there willbe more and more physical, um,
places to go for your healthcareoutside of the hospital.
We've been doing this for anumber of years, and I believe
we're going to be doing this foranother decade.
(18:04):
Uh, just creating more and moreretail type establishments for
healthcare that you can get to,uh, you know, five or 10 or 15
minutes from your home that arecertainly not institutional.
They're very walked in.
They're very friendly, you'llhave an appointment, um, but you
will not be in the hospital.
(18:24):
I, I, I believe that hospitalsare going to be a place for
trauma for very sick people, forvery specialized in high-end,
uh, procedures, uh, high risk,uh, delivery for babies.
And the rest of it, I think, isgoing to get pushed out more and
(18:45):
more to ambulatory facilitiesthat are either surgical or
nonsurgical.
Um, I do believe that thattelehealth is here to stay.
It was certainly became veryvaluable.
We, I had a few tele-health, uh,appointments during the
pandemic.
I thought they were great.
They will never replace going tosee your doctor when necessary,
(19:08):
but they will become a part, nota replacement in healthcare for
seeing your doctor at thein-person, but a part of our
healthcare.
And I think that, you know, the,the, the pandemic has
accelerated a lot of things.
It certainly will accelerate thebuilding of new facilities that
are more sophisticated and saferand better mechanical systems,
(19:32):
but it did, um, uh, givetele-health a real kick forward.
Um, and, um, I think it's great.
Um, I also, you know, I knowthat, uh, you know, what, where,
where, where, what is the newwaiting room, uh, to, to see the
doctor?
And the joke is it's the frontseat of your car?
(19:53):
Um, I think that's true in part,um, I took my dog to the vet
last night.
Of course, you don't bring thedog in any longer.
Somebody comes out, gets the dogfrom the car and brings the dog
back.
I don't know if that's going tostay forever.
I don't think so.
I, I I've been going in, um, Ihave a monthly appointment.
(20:14):
See my physician, uh, um, I go,I wait, you know, they're only
sick, you know, every six chairis available.
Um, I think as we're allvaccinated, we're going to
return to a more normal, um,course of business.
It won't be like it was in 2019in December of 2019, but we will
(20:37):
move back to a norm.
We're going to go back to theYankee game where the met game,
uh, we're going to go back totheater on September 14th.
You know, people, you know,Goldman Sachs says they want
everybody back in the office inJune.
Um, we're going to get there.
Um, but we'll get there a littlebit differently and we're all
(20:57):
going to become a germaphobe.
Um, um, I never paid attentionto that stuff, but I do now, uh,
we're gonna wash our hands more.
If somebody sneaks is we'regoing to walk away.
Um, you know, we're, we're,we're, we're all going to live
at a slightly higher level of,of, uh, of concern, but I do
look forward to a more normal,the new normal, and I, you know,
(21:23):
I know we all go what's that,and I don't know what it is, but
we'll get where we'll find,
Speaker 3 (21:29):
You know, John one, one of the areas that, uh, that
I'm following as the director ofstrategic initiatives for the
Simone team is
Speaker 5 (21:37):
You're frozen.
I hope not.
Let's see.
Speaker 4 (21:41):
I can hear Kevin fine,
Speaker 3 (21:45):
That we're following I'm following is the federally
qualified health center, Q H C's, um, which are, um, the, uh,
clinics and outpatientfacilities for a lot of the
people in our inner cities andyou're, and you're beginning to
see the federal government, uh,through the American recovery
act and in different, uh, otherpots of money to support the, uh
(22:10):
, the models that are turning upin some of our, our, our more
dense areas, because people needhealthcare, primary healthcare,
uh, across the board.
So we're beginning to see anumber of the different health
centers become more, uh, moreinvolved in delivery of health
(22:31):
services in the inner cities andthe dense community.
So I think you're going to see,as guy says, uh, uh, changing,
uh, changing healthcareenvironment, um, in, in our, our
whole region, uh, which includessome of the big cities that we
all deal with in Westchester upin orange County, where you are.
So I think there's, as guy says,there'll be a new normal, and we
(22:54):
haven't gotten there yet.
We're on our way to get there.
Speaker 4 (22:57):
Absolutely.
But as, as developers, so there,it's hard to know, you know,
guy, you gave that image back in, um, you know, March, April,
may of last year of New Yorkcity being empty, but being in
the development world andworking in the tri-state region,
(23:18):
is there concerns on your partabout how Manhattan New York
city comes back and how doesthat compare to let's say
Westchester or other parts ofthe Hudson Valley?
Speaker 5 (23:33):
So of course we all know that everything's
connected.
Um, I believe that New York citywill, um, return and will be
vibrant once again.
I think that as human beings, we, we want interaction.
(23:55):
We want, um, stimulation, uh,which means restaurants and,
and, and the theater and amuseum.
We want culture.
Uh, we are, you know, we are aevolved people.
Um, and, and, uh, um, I thinkwe're all just jamming forward.
(24:15):
I, I went out to dinner onSaturday night, um, and I was
never so happy to sit at a bar,talk to the bartender, um, have
a good time, have a few drinks,um, and pay my bill and, and,
and, and put a big fat fat tipon it for the bartender who just
(24:36):
was the nicest man who I, uh,who I just missed.
I never met him before, but Imissed him and it was so good to
see him.
Um, and I do think, and I'm, I'm, um, I'm looking forward to
theater coming back and I'mlooking forward to all of the
restaurants opening, what I'mreally looking forward to is to
see all that.
I can't say it all that darnplastic that separates all of us
(24:58):
going away.
Um, and I think as, as we'revaccinated, it will happen.
Um, I can tell you here atsomeone development companies,
we are extremely optimistic, uh,about coming back to business,
to new opportunities, um, and,and finding them and helping our
(25:19):
clients, um, fulfill their,their, their business needs,
whether it's on the healthcaresector or the industrial sector.
We think that there is avibrancy that wants to return.
Um, people are tired of workingfrom home.
Um, they're tired of eatingsandwiches at their desk, uh,
and, and we want to reengage,and I think that it will be, uh,
(25:43):
very exciting for New York forWestchester and the Hudson
Valley.
I think what we've seen in, in,in residential, um, housing, uh,
for our respective counties isexciting because, um, the folks,
um, you know, not that you areKevin and I did it, um, but we
(26:06):
all know people who sold theirhomes, uh, over the last year,
um, to younger people withyounger children, which is great
for the communities.
It's great for the schools.
It's great for the localmerchants.
Um, and I think that, um, it'spart of the natural course.
And I, I do believe there were alot of people who, you know, I
(26:28):
also, I I've, you know, we allhave friends who live in
Manhattan and I didn't see it,but I have friends who told me
that the moving trucks were justlined up outside of the
apartments buildings every daythat people couldn't out of the
city fast enough, but, and, andinto Westchester and into
Rockland County just to buy ahouse.
(26:50):
But that means that there are alot of apartments in New York
that are available.
And I really believe that overthe next year, the rental
apartments are going to getrented.
Uh, the co-ops and the condoswill find a new level of, of,
for absorption.
It's going to take a little bitof time, and yes, there, you
know, in every, every businesslocation, there are winners and
(27:14):
losers.
Um, and, uh, uh, um, you know,as Livan health Helms said,
there are winners and losers andI'm South of the line.
Um, but you know, there arethose that are North of the line
also, by the way.
Yeah, I know is, I know that'swhy I gave you that because you
(27:34):
would know it, you know, I chosethat one selectively Jonathan,
um, uh, that was for you.
Um, but you're welcome, but, youknow, there's this, there's,
we're, we're going to get backto, to, uh, to another level, to
a new place.
And I think that, um,everybody's gonna find their
(27:56):
spot and, uh, um, I'm glad I'mgoing to be able to participate
in and it's going to beexciting.
Speaker 4 (28:04):
Well, right now, I think there's, there's no
question the market that we'veseen housing market, um, there
is virtue there.
We're getting to the point of nosupply in the Hudson Valley.
So winners and losers as peoplehave moved out of the city.
And, and by the way, I, I knowthis is no supply in the Hudson
(28:25):
Valley.
If we had an enormous number ofpeople, 10,000 new families move
up to the Hudson Valley, they'dnever know it in New York city.
So I'm not really worried thatNew York city, you know, it is
to our benefit, but New Yorkcity you'd be fine.
You know, guide, you mentionedthat a lot of Simone's work is
in warehouse and logistics.
(28:47):
And right now there's a lot oftalk about supply chain issues
from lumbered to, um, even I wasreading about chlorine for
swimming pools is not available.
Do you, is there an opportunityor, or how long, or it just has
to work its way through thesystem, almost like the, uh,
(29:10):
what was it, the gas pipelines,you know.
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (29:13):
Yeah.
I, I think that, you know, thebig one of course is his
computer chips that during,during for cars that during the
pandemic, all of the factoriesturned their attention to making
chips for laptops and zooms andcomputers and, and, uh, they
stop making chips for cars.
(29:34):
And now, you know, you can't geta new car, uh, because they're
all shut down waiting for chips.
Um, it will take some time, uh,for the supply chain, whether
it's lumber, concrete glass.
Um, uh, and I got a note from,from my pool, um, um, um, guy,
(29:56):
uh, like two months ago tellingme that, uh, a signup early open
your pool early, there's ashortage of everything, uh, you
know, chlorine and there's ashortage of everything in his
business, but it's true for allof us.
We've watched, um, uh,construction prices just go
stupid crazy in the last threemonths.
And I mean, I don't mean like a5%.
(30:18):
I mean, some things are doublingin price pipe, uh, and not, you
know, just silly things andthat's just supply chain and we
will see that return to a morenormal, but we've been getting
3% increases every year in, in,in construction costs.
And I think this year we'reprobably going to be 5% and the
things that have doubled willcome back and, you know, it, it
(30:40):
is shocking how valuable that,that, um, oil, the colonial oil
pipeline is.
I heard last night that the, youwould need 10,000 tanker trucks
a day, um, to equal the amountof oil that, that pipeline
delivers every day.
That's just shocking andphenomenal about how important
(31:03):
our infrastructure is.
And if we don't protect it,whether it's through physical
improvements or from hacking, wejust have to protect, uh, with
reinvestment to ourinfrastructure and protected
from cyber, um, uh, insecurity.
But we have to make sure thatthose pipelines are, are, are
(31:24):
physically, uh, improved everyyear.
You know, it's no different thanjust, you know, every year
making the improvements to yourhouse or taking your car to the,
to the mechanic.
We need to take care of, of ourinfrastructure.
We're very, um, um, you know,we're, we're, we're at a very,
we're very sensitive, uh, to adisruption.
(31:45):
Um, and we just have torecognize it in today's age.
Speaker 4 (31:48):
I want to make certain, we have time to fully
discuss.
So Simone properties zones overa hundred acres, right in the
heart of the Hudson Valley, nearStewart airport pattern has for
my 15 years been trying tofigure out this, uh, this, this
(32:09):
what finally energizes theStuart airport or the area
around it.
It is just a great combinationof transportation.
There is, uh, an airport, uh,the highway system around it is
first.
Great.
Um, any thoughts about what youmight do with the a hundred plus
(32:31):
acres there?
Speaker 5 (32:33):
Um, I'll take this one, please.
Team made a commitment a few
Speaker 3 (32:40):
Years ago to the, to this, uh, Stuart airport.
Um, as you know, you mentioned15 years, I've been involved in
discussions on a steward for,for 25 years.
And, um, um, uh, before thepandemic, uh, the, the Simone
team actually had receivedapproval from the town of new
Windsor to put up a phase onebuilding, which was, uh, a
(33:05):
hotel.
Yeah.
And they had a flag and we'reready to pull permits when, of
course the pandemic hit andcaused us to have to rethink and
reevaluate what's what's best upthere.
Uh, one of the things guysmentioned, um, his warehouses,
uh, logistic facilities, uh, asyou, as you just mentioned, the,
(33:27):
the, he couldn't have a, abetter location for, uh, the, uh
, uh, transportation sector.
Uh, whether it be the roadnetwork, we have the longest,
one of the longest runways atthe world.
I think it's due at airport.
Uh, so you could bring in cargoplanes.
So we're, you know, we are stillreevaluating post pandemic, and
(33:51):
we're not post you Edward, we'recoming out of it, hopefully for
everybody, you know, what wouldbe the best uses up there?
We have a few hospital networksin that area.
Montefiore came into, uh, to bepart of St.
Luke's.
Um, so, you know, there may beneed for medical offices,
warehouses, uh, officebuildings.
Uh, you heard, I heard guysspeaking about, you know, uh, a
(34:15):
lot of the businesses may berethinking about New York versus
the suburbs, Jamie diamond.
A few weeks ago, I spoke aboutJP Morgan chase, uh, may not
have all of its space needs inthe city that it had before.
So, you know, it's really, it'sreally a moving target up there,
but I think the word that youuse, which is really the
opposite word is, you know, theenergy.
(34:37):
I think, I think whether it bethe residential market that you
would get, I just spoke about,uh, in the suburbs and in the us
or the Valley region or the, orthe commercial market or the
office market, or the healthcaremarket where we are guys, uh,
has its finger on the pulse ofwhat's happening.
We think there's a lot of energythat's going to be feeding, uh,
(34:59):
that the airport, one of theproblems, one of the, it is a
New York, New Jersey portauthority airport.
And when you have JFK and youhave Newark and you have
LaGuardia, and then you havesteward, uh, you know, all of us
could make a decision on wherethe emphasis is going to be for,
for, for the big dollars thatare needed, uh, to make sure the
(35:23):
airport is a big success, butwith the pandemic ending with,
uh, uh, airlines returning tosteward for commercial prac
travel, um, we think, we thinkthere's, there's an energy.
That's the word for thatairport?
And we were bullish on, on theregion, but bullish and orange
County, uh, the new Windsorarea.
(35:45):
So, and that whole, that wholegeographic area is something
that Simone Simone team feels isgoing to be the future.
As you mentioned it,
Speaker 4 (35:54):
That's, that's great news.
Um, guy, I want to just get yourtake on Amazon for a minute.
Cause you said, you know, everytime they're either, right, you
know, either a step behind youor, you know, you can always
sort of feel them.
So before the pandemic, therewas a million square feet, um,
(36:14):
planned for a Montgomery inorange County during the
pandemic, um, Amazon added600,000 square feet in Fishkill,
I believe in Duchess County.
And then what they call theirlast mile facilities in Putnam
(36:36):
Westchester, I believe, andRockland.
So not so quietly, they havefurther their footprint for
distribution and logistics andhave been hiring, you know,
there, you know, one of theproblems right now in the
workforce is like everybody issaying, we can't find people.
(36:59):
I believe some people havechosen to go to an Amazon
because it was a job.
They were paying$15 an hour.
And, um, how do you see thiswhole Amazon world playing out
with competitors?
So
Speaker 5 (37:19):
The Amazon story is, is just one that, that will go
down in history about a crazyyoung man who had an idea.
And he started with books.
And I don't know if you know,the reason that he started with
books.
(37:40):
So the reason that Jeff Bezosstarted with books is just so
basic and so simple.
And so smart books that wereunsold as part of the publishing
model got returned to thepublisher.
He had no risk.
So if you bought a hundred booksand 80 of them got sold, he got
(38:01):
to return the other 20.
That was one reason.
That's why books.
And the second of course isthey're non-perishable.
So it was brilliant.
Um, and Amazon has continued tobuild a model that functionally
is unstoppable.
Um, the only thing that can,that can and may stop Amazon
(38:24):
will be the United Statesgovernment for antitrust.
But I think for any otherreason, there is nothing that
will stop Amazon.
They have proven that they canget into any model of including
food perishables and they willcontinue to build, um, uh, um,
(38:44):
their footprint in all shapesand sizes.
We even now we'll rent space toAmazon, not for warehouse put
for trucks, truck parking, uh,because if, if you think about
it, what do you see on thestreet?
All those gray, those blue grayvans that are everywhere with a
smiley face.
So it's a model that willcontinue to grow.
(39:08):
Um, I think there will be sometrack at some point in time.
Um, I think they're trying to begood corporate citizens, and I
put that in quotes because theybet they have to look like
they're being corporate goodcorporate citizens, so they will
get shut down.
So that smiley face isn't there,you know, it's there for a
(39:28):
reason.
They want us, they want us allto think that they're our
friends.
Um, the other thing that we haveto be aware of is that the
bigger part of Amazon is, isthis part that we don't see is
that they're, they're thebiggest cloud company, um, on
the planet, you know, they, theysupport the back end for
themselves and for everybodyelse, it's a very important part
(39:51):
of their business and the newCTO that was just named to
replace Jeff.
Bezos's the man that ran thatand built that.
Um, I do believe that we'regoing to have a very strong
retail sector, physical retailsector, but it's going to be
more narrow.
(40:12):
Um, and it's going to berestaurants, of course.
Um, and it's going to be thingsthat we want to go out and buy
because we like to go out andbuy them, whether it's a bottle
of wine that we want to look atthe label, or it's a piece of
jewelry, you know, theaspirational PR um, uh, retail,
um, but for everything else, um,even I'm buying it online and,
(40:36):
and that's a big statement and Ilike to go, and I like to go to
the, I like to go to thesupermarket, I enjoy it.
I like to go pick up my ownvegetables and, and, uh, um,
know, go, go, go to the wineshop and buy that bottle of
Macallan or whatever I want thatday.
But my daughter, who's 26 buysall of her groceries online.
(41:00):
Doesn't really care about goingto a storage too, darn busy.
Um, so, you know, as I pass on,you know, over time and Kevin
and I, you know, get put in thehome, um, you know, where
someone will bring us our foodand we'll dribble, dribble it
down on our shirts.
Uh, I really do question aboutthe next generation.
And I think that we're going tosee more and more mixed use
(41:22):
where we're going to want to goto that restaurant.
Um, uh, and perhaps the wineshop will be next door.
What we're going to want to gofor aspirational shopping, to
Speaker 3 (41:34):
Not buy the pair of jeans online that get delivered.
Because, you know, we boughtthis, I'm the same size as I was
a year ago, and I can go toLevi's dot com, but I do want to
go buy a suit, or I do want togo buy a birthday gift for a
friend.
Um, and I want to see it and Iwant to have it wrapped, and I
want to give it to him or herpersonally.
(41:54):
So we all have to evolve and wecan't be stuck in our ways.
And we can't say, well, that'show I used to do it.
We better evolve where we're allgoing to be left behind.
And that's what I'm trying to dofor our business every day.
And I, and I'm trying to do itfor myself as a person every day
as well, uh, where we will beleft behind professionally
(42:15):
personally evolve.
We just have to evolve.
One thing, one thing that I knowthat patterns is very involved
with, which I think is going tobe a positive impact of all the
changes that we've talked abouttoday.
And you've mentioned is I thinkthe environment's going to be
better.
You know, there'll be less cars,uh, you know, the movement
(42:38):
already to electric vehicles.
I think, I think, I thinkthere's going to be some
positive things coming out ofwhat, what guys going to do, the
one bullet.
And I think that's good for theplanet and it's good for all of
us in the next generation.
So when guy and I were togetherin that nursing home, that guy
has put us in the nextgeneration will be enjoying a
(42:58):
little bit better, a little bitbetter planet experience that
maybe, you know, we we'veexperienced because of the
industrial revolutions that havehappened.
Speaker 4 (43:09):
So look, I think both of you want it, it seems like
there's a natural, uh, efforthere to end this conversation on
an upbeat note, both from you,Kevin and guy with you saying
the need to evolve.
And I couldn't agree with youmore that, um, there there's
something about what justhappened over the last 14 months
(43:31):
that accelerated the integrationof technology.
And everyone says, you know,what would have taken 10 years
took one year, you know?
And I think you're right, that,that the whole notion of
evolving, accepting, you know,do you guys use cash?
I haven't used cash in ages.
(43:51):
You know, I, I don't even knowwhat it look, you know, it's
like, Ooh, what's cash.
But, um, I want to give the lastword to both of you.
So anything else that you wantto put on the table as part of
the conversation?
Or are you both okay.
Speaker 3 (44:05):
Uh, okay.
Uh, yes, I am happy to end on a,on a good note.
I, I, I do think, um, the nextbunch of years could be quite
good and I agree with Kevin,we're going to live better, live
more healthy.
And if, uh, uh, the guys inWashington, you know, just don't
(44:25):
screw it up, we'll be fine,John, I just want to thank you
and your team.
I, as I said in the beginning,I've had the pleasure of working
with the patterns for many yearsand with you and your team, and
please keep up the good work.
You keep people on your, ontheir toes up there.
You know, you really, you really, uh, you really are on the
(44:46):
cutting edge of, of the issuesthat are going to make a
difference in the future.
So thanks for what you're doingand thanks for this opportunity
for Simone developmentcompanies, Samoan healthcare,
and for all of us to get our,our thoughts out on, on where
we're going to be in the future.
Yeah.
Well said,
Speaker 1 (45:03):
Thanks, Kevin.
And thanks guy.
Um, and thank you to Simone.
Um, this Jonathan dropped in onbehalf of patterns and paradigms
and everyone have a good day.
Thank you for tuning in topatterns and paradigms the
pattern podcast.
For more information about thisepisode, visit our website
(45:23):
pattern for progress.org forwardslash podcast.
Popular Podcasts
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Therapy Gecko
An unlicensed lizard psychologist travels the universe talking to strangers about absolutely nothing. TO CALL THE GECKO: follow me on https://www.twitch.tv/lyleforever to get a notification for when I am taking calls. I am usually live Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays but lately a lot of other times too. I am a gecko.