December 20, 2024 • 27 mins
As temperatures drop, New Yorkers turn up their thermostats and demand for electricity rises.
In anticipation of the cold season, the NYISO Operations team develops a winter preparedness report that evaluates the ability of the grid to meet demand on the coldest days of the year.
The NYISO’s 2024-25 Winter Assessment considers load forecast, the capacity of generators, the transmission system, and the availability of fuels that power fossil-fuel generators across the state.
This year’s Winter Assessment finds sufficient reliability margins under forecasted conditions, but in extreme cold weather, fuel shortages could affect those margins.
In our latest Power Trends podcast, NYISO Vice President of Operations Aaron Markham discusses how his team works closely with generators, neighboring grid operators, and government agencies to prepare for the winter season and respond to challenges as they arise.
Listen to the podcast to learn more.
Read more:
New York’s Electric Grid Prepared to Meet Winter Demand Press Release
New York’s Winter Grid Reliability Challenges Fact Sheet
Learn More
- Follow us on Twitter @NewYorkISO and LinkedIn @NYISO
- Read our blogs and watch our videos
- Check out our 2040 grid page
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_00 (00:06):
Welcome to the Power Trends Podcast, produced by the
New York Independent SystemOperator, where we discuss
energy planning, public policy,and other issues affecting New
York's power grid.
Hello, and welcome to the PowerTrends Podcast.
I am Kevin Lanahan, VicePresident, External Affairs,
Corporate Communications.
This is episode 37, and we arehosting Aaron Markin, who is the
(00:29):
Vice President of Operations.
Aaron is going to walk usthrough the 2024-2025 winter
assessment and preparedness.
We've had Aaron on the podcastbefore talking about some
operations issues, and we lookforward to speaking with him
today.
Aaron, welcome.
SPEAKER_01 (00:47):
Thanks, Kevin.
Appreciate you having me andlooking forward to discussing
winter preparedness.
When you
SPEAKER_00 (00:53):
do the winter preparedness report, where are
you pulling the data from andwhat's the team really focused
on in
SPEAKER_01 (00:58):
that
SPEAKER_00 (00:59):
process?
SPEAKER_01 (01:00):
So winter preparedness is really a
year-round event in operations.
The official assessment of thedata starts in August.
We really look at what we expectto be available from a resource
perspective, so from a generatorperspective, from a special case
resource perspective, as well aswhat we expect to be able to get
(01:23):
into the market from an externalarea perspective, external
capacity.
what we expect to beunavailable.
So generators typically haveforced outages.
It's just part of the nature ofthings.
Things break.
Usually the best information onthat comes from historic
performance data of theresources.
(01:43):
So we look at that quite indetail.
And we also, from a winterperspective, look at the fuel
availability situation ofgenerators because that's really
key, especially as Many of thegenerators in New York are
natural gas fired, and thenatural gas system is primarily
built to serve the firm customerdemand, which is the heating
(02:06):
load primarily, and that'shigher in the winter, which
results in less gas beingavailable for electric gen.
SPEAKER_00 (02:13):
So you're looking at the amount of megawatts you can
expect to be on the system.
You're talking to thosegenerators to understand what
they're doing to maintain theirfacilities to get ready for
winter, so you have somereasonable confidence that
they're going to show up whenyou need them.
You're considering the age ofthese facilities because they're
getting older, and we're notbuilding new right now, at least
new gas fire generation.
(02:35):
And then you're thinking about,you talk about firm demand.
Maybe we can explain what thatis, and then if you can also
unpack for folks special caseresources.
SPEAKER_01 (02:44):
The special case resources are a class of
resources that are a bit unique.
They are actually loads ordemand on the system primarily.
Typically large industrialcustomers that have committed to
reduce demand in times of needor when we call upon them, which
ultimately makes them look likea supply resource in our market
(03:06):
because we can actually reducethe amount of electricity that
they're consuming in times ofneed.
SPEAKER_00 (03:12):
And so that helps out when demand is high and
control room operators areseeing how the system's
responding and And then we'llcall up those industrial
customers and say, it's game on.
You agreed to reduce your demandat this point and we need you to
do that.
SPEAKER_01 (03:26):
Correct.
SPEAKER_00 (03:27):
We talked about the age of the resources.
Let's just focus on that for aminute and how that factors into
your calculations, whether it'ssummer or winter looking
forward.
SPEAKER_01 (03:36):
Typically what we do when we assess either the summer
or the winter capacity goinginto the season is is look at an
average forced outage rate ofthe resources.
In technical terms, that's E4D,which is essentially the ability
of a resource to be availablewhen it's needed.
So each resource class and eachresource specifically has
(03:59):
different forced outage rate,and it can be based on many
things, one of which, as youalluded to, Kevin, is the age of
the unit.
So Even with a lot ofmaintenance that is occurring at
the units to keep them in primecondition, as a resource ages,
it's more likely to break.
I mean, if you think of yourcar, just the older it is, even
(04:21):
if you're doing the oil changesand the tire maintenance and
replacing the brakes, ascomponents age and get older,
they are more likely to break,which is is no different in the
generating fleet.
So we essentially look at thataverage forced outage rate over
the last couple of seasons, andthat is our starting point for
what we think is going to beunavailable.
(04:43):
Now, if we have specificinformation that an additional
generator has suffered a forcedoutage and its repair plan is
going to take longer toaccomplish than the season, We
consider that as
SPEAKER_00 (04:56):
unavailable as well.
Let's begin to unpack what youfound with this assessment.
So we will have sufficientwinter capacity for this
upcoming season, but there aresome things that jump out at you
with this data that give yousome pause and some concern.
SPEAKER_01 (05:10):
We really do a number of different scenarios
that try to encompass what wewould expect the winter to look
like.
We look at three different loadlevels, baseline, forecast,
which is essentially ourforecast that has about a 50%
probability of occurring for thewinter.
Then we look at two more extremeforecasts.
(05:31):
One is a 90-10 forecast, or aforecast that has about a 10%
probability of occurring, andthen a 99-1, or a forecast that
has about a 1% probability ofoccurring.
The colder it is, the moreelectric demand there is on the
system.
So each of those scenarios isrepresenting or looking at a
colder ambient condition reallyacross the state, which would
(05:55):
drive those demands higher.
SPEAKER_00 (05:57):
Weather is a huge component here, and you're
running several scenarios basedon several different outcomes of
weather that could arise.
And you're also looking at notjust the ambient temperature,
but how long that ambienttemperature might occur.
SPEAKER_01 (06:10):
Correct.
In the winter, load is primarilya function of how cold it is.
So the longer it's cold, themore energy is used for space
heating, for other things.
The higher the demand that wehave to serve is going to be.
The other thing that we reallylook at in the winter is the
available fuel to run theelectric generators.
So typically in the winter, themost likely scenarios that we
(06:35):
look at are under those colderconditions, the limited
availability of natural gas toserve power generators.
So we call that our firm fuelscenario, really looking at
units that have either firmcontracts to get natural gas off
the gas system Or in New York,we have a very large fleet of
dual fuel units, which meansthey can burn natural gas when
(06:59):
it's available and economic, butthey also have the ability to
burn liquid fuel.
And typically they have fairlylarge storage tanks on site to
store that fuel so that in timesof the unavailability of natural
gas or when natural gas becomesuneconomic, i.e.
the price of it is higher thanthe price of oil, They can
(07:20):
switch fuels and still provideelectric service at the most
economic rate.
SPEAKER_00 (07:26):
Really helpful element when it's really cold,
especially for extended periodsof time, but most of those
assets are in New York City.
Correct.
A lot of them are
SPEAKER_01 (07:34):
downstate, which helps because they are closer to
the fuel terminals.
They're typically able to beresupplied with oil using the
waterways.
Barges and ships can carry a lotmore fuel and are a lot easier
to resupply the quantities offuel that are needed to produce
electric generation.
Whereas if you think of a truckrunning over a road, it would
(07:57):
take a lot of trucks to resupplya power plant, especially in the
winter when the roads may besnow-covered or icy, which would
slow down those
SPEAKER_00 (08:06):
deliveries.
So we said, based on thisassessment, You're confident
there's sufficient wintercapacity margins going into this
season, but that there's somethings that do give you pause or
concern, and you've covered thefuel supplies.
But if we can dig a littledeeper into those scenarios
where you start to getconcerned, and I know that this
is a new focus.
(08:27):
You've seen some evidence on thesystem of this for several
years, but this concernassociated with adequate fuel
supplies is becoming a littlebit more acute.
SPEAKER_01 (08:36):
Yeah, so we really started to identify this fuel
concern in the polar vortexesthat occurred in 2013 and 2014,
as well as the winter of 2016,2017.
What it really boils down to isthe ability of the units to be
able to resupply that liquidstorage in times of need.
(08:59):
So when it gets cold and thoseunits switch to the liquid
fuels, That puts a lot ofpressure on the liquid fuels
inventory and systems to be ableto resupply those units.
So the longer the duration forthe units to burn oil, the more
pressure there is to be able tokeep them supplied.
(09:20):
And as we've retired units thatdidn't rely on oil to meet those
needs, in particular, someretirements of coal units
upstate, as well as retirementsof nuclear units downstate, both
of which would provide electricenergy, especially during these
cold snaps, and not use the oil.
(09:41):
So their retirements put morepressure on the liquid fuel
delivery system in these coldweather periods.
SPEAKER_00 (09:47):
One takeaway is that the state and the federal public
policies of transitioning to adecarbonized system to address
climate change are working.
SPEAKER_01 (09:54):
Yes.
SPEAKER_00 (09:55):
One of the other takeaways is we've got to
account for this growing demandassociated with electric heat.
So...
When you do an assessment likethis, what are some of those
data points that you see?
Obviously, people are installingheat pumps.
The CLCPA, Climate Leadershipand Community Protection Act, is
working and forcing change inthe marketplace.
What is it that you're seeingwhen you put together these
(10:17):
winter assessments?
SPEAKER_01 (10:18):
The implementation of the public policy from an
electrification perspectivemanifests itself in our capacity
assessment is what we areforecasting from a peak load
demand perspective.
So right now, we're seeing theload over last year has actually
dipped a little bit.
That's primarily due to economicactivity.
(10:40):
But as we look out into thefuture, we see significant
increases in winter demands as aresult of the projected
electrification.
So much so that in the early2030s, we're expecting winter
demand that exceeds the summerdemand, which would be a change
for New York, who's primarilybeen summer peaking for a number
(11:02):
of
SPEAKER_00 (11:02):
years.
This is a big change that we'vebeen talking about as an
organization for a while now,switching from a summer peaking
system to a winter peakingsystem.
When we look at the futureprojected demand, if we didn't
have that electrification of thehousing and the transportation
sector, we'd actually seedeclining winter demand over
time.
But when we layer that on, wehave to build a system to
(11:24):
accommodate for that changeover.
So Aaron, we talked about thedeclining reserve margins, but
actually we're seeing additionson the system, but it comes
mostly with behind the metersolar, which you folks are
accounting for in real time inthe control room.
You know how much is there andhow much you can back down some
(11:46):
of those fossil resources.
Talk us through how you do that,especially in winter.
It's a little bit morechallenging.
SPEAKER_01 (11:54):
Yeah, so a number of years ago, we took on an
initiative to start forecastingthe behind-the-meter solar
resources.
We contract with a vendor whoprovides us a daily estimate of
what the production will be fromall those behind-the-meter
resources, because it is reallya forecasting challenge.
But what they provide, we'reable to use to augment our
(12:17):
demand forecast.
so that we can commit the mostefficient set of resources.
So we're actually counting onthat behind-the-meter solar
resource showing up to the levelthat the forecast vendor is
providing, and then we commitadditional resources or decommit
resources to meet the demand atthe lowest cost.
(12:37):
In the winter, the peak demandis typically in the evening
after the sun is set, so thosesolar resources don't provide a
lot of reliability value at thetime of peak, But any power
production that either thebehind-the-meter solar or the
front-of-the-meter solarresources provide when the sun
is up actually offsets the needto burn fossil fuels, stored
(13:00):
fuels that may have limitedinventory, especially during
these cold snaps as we've talkedabout.
So there is benefit to them.
Do the market systems take asmuch advantage of that to meet
the demand using the least-costresources?
And of course, the future designis that this is where storage
can come in overnight.
Correct.
(13:20):
So the ability of a storagedevice to actually capture that
production when it's availableand shift its availability to
times when the electric systemneeds it is really the key value
and benefit of the storageresources.
SPEAKER_00 (13:35):
But in highlighting the complexity going forward
with the demand forecast, Withbehind-the-meter solar or
front-of-the-meter solar and theadditional storage capacity
capability, that's also going tobe a bit of a challenge in
forecasting for the day ahead.
SPEAKER_01 (13:53):
Correct, because those storage devices that we
expect to get built have limitedduration.
So they can store whateveramount of energy they're
designed to but it is likely notgoing to be a 24-hour resource.
And at some point, you need theenergy on the system to recharge
those storage devices so they'reavailable for the next time of
(14:14):
need.
So as we look at more and moreintermittents coming into the
system, being able to forecasttheir availability so we can
time the charging of the storageappropriately to make sure that
we continue to meet reliabilityneeds
SPEAKER_00 (14:29):
is going to be an additional challenge.
Timing is everything in thiscase, and what we call round
trip is you're going to have todo some heavy calculations.
Accounting also for those reallycold temperatures and battery
performance is going to beanother kind of curveball.
SPEAKER_01 (14:42):
Correct.
The efficiency of those storageresources changes with
temperature.
We'll have to forecast that.
The additional resource typethat we haven't talked a lot
about is wind.
So in the winter, the windpatterns are stronger.
So to get more energy out of thewind resources, we have systems
that can forecast theiravailability and provide
(15:04):
situational awareness to theoperators.
But the going forward challengeis going to be coordinating when
the wind is available, when thesun is available, when to charge
the storage resources, when isthe true demand for electricity,
and trying to move all thosepieces around to make sure that
we always have enough supply tomeet the demand when it
SPEAKER_00 (15:26):
shows up.
Aligning the amount of resourceswith the operations and dispatch
of those resources with theweather and timing it day to
night.
SPEAKER_01 (15:37):
Correct.
And then having the capabilityto respond to unexpected events
like we do today.
So sudden unavailability of atransmission line, of a
generator, or if the forecast iswrong for solar production or
wind production.
and how to manage all thosevariables through time.
SPEAKER_00 (15:55):
So when we contemplate switching from a
summer peaking system to awinter peaking system, what are
those elements that you folksare focused on in operating the
grid?
SPEAKER_01 (16:05):
Yeah, that's a great question.
So one of the primary concerns,and we've covered it a bit here,
is the resource mix that's goingto be available to serve that
increased winter load.
With the fuel infrastructurethat's in place, there are
concerns of meeting thatincreased winter demand,
especially when you factor inthe unavailability of natural
(16:26):
gas, which primarily occurs inthe winter.
When you think of a summerdemand, which can be quite a bit
higher today than the winterdemand, the natural gas system
has headroom to be able to rungas-only generators to serve
that.
As we transition to a winterpeaking system, the concern and
focus is really what is theresource mix that we need to
(16:48):
build and have in place to beable to serve that winter
SPEAKER_00 (16:52):
demand.
In other words, we need morecapacity.
We need more resources on thesystem.
The cooling demand is prettymuch built into the system
during summer now.
But the winter paradigm issomething brand new.
It's a new frontier goingforward.
Correct.
So back to winter for a second.
If we do start to see decliningreserves in the moment, what are
some of the tools?
(17:13):
If we do have an event thatlooks something like Winter
Storm Elliott, what is it thatyou have on hand in terms of
tools and communications?
Take us into the control room,if you will.
Give folks an idea of some ofthe steps you would take.
And if we get a little heads upon the weather before it
happens, what are you doing toprepare for that event?
SPEAKER_01 (17:32):
As we enter any season, we're really looking out
five and seven days in thefuture.
What is the weather?
What conditions are going toexist?
What is the forecasted demand?
And how are we going to servethat demand?
So when we head into a period ofhigher demand, Typically, a
number of maintenance outagesscheduled, not only on the
transmission system, but on thegenerators so that they can be
(17:55):
prepared.
The first thing we'll do isrequest those facilities that
are out for maintenance bereturned to service.
We also start communication withthe fuel suppliers, the natural
gas system, the suppliers of oilinventory in the state to make
sure they're ready and we havegood situational awareness as to
their capabilities.
(18:16):
to serve electric generators.
SPEAKER_00 (18:18):
This is what we would refer to as gas-electric
coordination, making sure thatthose two commodities are
prepared to address that event.
SPEAKER_01 (18:25):
Correct.
The other thing we do as part ofa recurring process is we
actually survey the generatorsin New York to understand their
fuel situation.
Do they have firm gas contracts?
Do they have on-site storagecapability?
How much liquid storage do theyhave on-site?
What are their plans forreplenishment over the near
(18:46):
term?
That all factors into ouroperational readiness plan as we
go in to have good situationalawareness of the resources that
will be available to us to servethese needs.
Aaron, is this an area that'sbecoming more challenging
SPEAKER_00 (19:00):
in recent years?
SPEAKER_01 (19:01):
Yes, definitely with the push to convert oil heating
to natural gas.
That's put additional load onthe gas system or demand on the
gas system, which againtranslates into less gas being
available for power gen.
Also, as the demand over thelonger term for oil in the state
for heating has declined, thatmeans some of that
(19:25):
infrastructure to serve that oildemand has also been retired.
In these times where we'reheavily reliant on the oil
infrastructure and that resupplychain, that again puts
additional stress on thatbecause the headroom isn't as
great on that system anymoreeither.
SPEAKER_00 (19:43):
So there's Several different communications
protocols the operators have inreal time with various different
state agencies.
We talked about the reliabilityorganizations.
Walk us through some of thosethings too.
SPEAKER_01 (19:56):
As we approach closer to real time, we run our
day ahead market.
So that runs every day.
And that's the basis for thecommitment of generation that we
need to serve the demand.
From there, the operators reallyscrutinize that commitment for
the next day.
looking at what units werecommitted, what is the demand,
any near-term changes to whatthe load forecast is going to be
(20:20):
based on updated weatherconditions, any additional
changes to supply based oninformation that comes into the
control room on generatoravailability.
But we also communicate with ourneighboring electric
organizations and really take anassessment of their conditions
as well, because New York ispart of the interconnected
(20:41):
electric system.
We can buy and sell electricitywith our neighbors.
That basically expands the poolof resources that are available
to us to serve demand.
But before we count on that, wewant to have a full
understanding of what are theconditions in the neighboring
regions.
That coordination really goes oncontinuously between the control
(21:04):
room at the NYSO and theneighboring control areas.
And there's always refinementsto the plan as we approach real
time.
SPEAKER_00 (21:10):
On the other side of that equation, you want to know
what our neighboring RTOs andISOs capacity profile is.
Because if they're in need andwe're in a position to help,
they're going to call on us forthat.
I think people, not everybodyunderstands or realizes that the
grid is so interconnected.
SPEAKER_01 (21:27):
It's very interconnected.
And there's a large benefit thatwe in New York get from being
interconnected because We canlean on the neighbors if they
have capability available intimes of need, and we can also
help support them in their timesof need if we've got access
capability.
SPEAKER_00 (21:44):
So especially in emergency operating protocols,
if they look like they're movingtowards a position where they
are going to be in need and weneed to help, or vice versa.
SPEAKER_01 (21:53):
Correct.
And then, in addition, there's anumber of emergency actions that
the operators can take in thatcategory of procedures.
we have the ability to call onconsumers to reduce demand.
So we typically call thatvoluntary curtailment.
So if that were to occur, you'dsee on your local news or maybe
(22:15):
from your local utility arequest to conserve energy in
certain times if you're able to.
The other thing we can do isrequest emergency energy
purchases from neighboringareas.
Again, if they've got thecapability to support us, we can
actually request and buy energyenergy into New York in an
emergency fashion to helpsupport the load in New York.
(22:40):
The other thing we can do isthere's a concept of reserve on
the electric system.
So typically we procure enoughgeneration capacity to serve the
demand plus some headroom orreserve so that we're always
able and ready to respond tocontingency events or unexpected
(23:00):
forced outages of generators.
So typically, we try to procureenough reserve to be able to
replace two of the largestgenerators.
But in times of need, we canactually reduce that amount of
energy that we're holding asreserve, convert it to energy to
serve demand.
And then the last step or theultimate step would actually be
(23:24):
to start disconnecting customersin order to keep the system
whole and maintain the theoverall electric system.
SPEAKER_00 (23:33):
I imagine that one of those protocols, the
emergency purchases, is becomingmore complex, too, in real time
because not only are we seeingreliability margins declining
and the amount of capacitynarrowing a bit, but that's a
dynamic that's happening withour neighbors and across the
country, yes?
SPEAKER_01 (23:51):
Correct, yes.
As the fleet and the gridtransitions, we are seeing those
narrowing margins across theindustry And so in times of
need, especially if the coldsnap or the weather phenomenon
that's driving the need in NewYork is broader than just New
York, that can put stress on theregional power grid and even the
(24:13):
regional gas supply or oilsupply.
So really the coordination thatwe spoke to is really increasing
in importance so that we canreally fully understand what the
region looks like, not only NewYork, to make sure we can be
ready to serve demand.
SPEAKER_00 (24:30):
And what you just described is what played out in
Winter Storm Elliot, is thatweather moved west to east and
started to impact the system toour south and west and
eventually arrived in New Yorkhere.
That was something that's hardto plan for because it also
happened with such speed.
SPEAKER_01 (24:45):
Yes.
One of the things that we'reseeing is that the rate of
change, it seems to beincreasing, where you go from
things are normal, things areworking well, to things start to
fail.
And we saw that during winterstorm Elliott.
You know, as that weather movedfrom west to east and there was
issues with generators beingable to continue to run, you
(25:07):
know, some of them had freezingissues.
There was also reduction in theamount of gas available.
because the wellheads froze orthe pipeline infrastructure had
issues with that cold weather.
So there was a really, a fairlyrapid transition of how those
two things then impacted theelectric system and the
(25:27):
operators through thecoordination protocols that we
have in place and train on wereable to respond to that.
The other key aspect from a NewYork perspective was the ability
of those dual fuel generators toswitch to oil in short notice So
when the natural gas becameunavailable, the generating
units in New York were able toswitch to that liquid fuel,
(25:48):
continue to supply the needs ofNew Yorkers, and were actually
allowed us to assist some of the
SPEAKER_00 (25:55):
neighbors.
All right, well, let's shiftjust a little bit.
I think it's important andhelpful to review those
situations again, and then whatwe have in place to make sure
the grid stays reliable in thosesituations.
But We remind folks that yourassessment does show that we're
ready to go into this winter.
You're confident of that.
I think it's probably helpful tomaybe end on this note, but if
you can walk through with us thegreater collaboration we have
(26:16):
here at this ISO with theplanning department.
SPEAKER_01 (26:21):
The tools that the operators have to manage these
events don't appear immediately.
So there's a lot of coordinationand planning that needs to go in
place to make sure that When weactually get to real-time
operation, the tools areavailable to serve the needs.
As you mentioned, Kevin, theplanning department has a number
of assessments that they lookout into the future, trying to
(26:44):
assess what the system is goingto look like under those
scenarios and are there needsthat we can identify now so that
the market can respond to thoseto provide the resources we
need.
SPEAKER_00 (26:55):
Well, incredibly interesting, complex, and
important.
Thanks for taking us through allof these different tools,
elements, and ideas.
And kudos to you and theoperators for getting us through
these tough situations.
And we appreciate you coming bythe podcast.
And we'd love to have you backin the future.
Thanks, Kevin.
Appreciate it.
(27:19):
Thank you for joining us.
As a reminder, the New YorkIndependent System Operator,
NYISO for short, is responsiblefor reliably managing New York's
power grid and energy marketsand providing independent data
to policymakers and the public.
For more independent info,please visit the NYISO blog at
www.nyiso.com.
Welcome to the Power Trends Podcast, produced by the
New York Independent SystemOperator, where we discuss
energy planning, public policy,and other issues affecting New
York's power grid.
Hello, and welcome to the PowerTrends Podcast.
I am Kevin Lanahan, VicePresident, External Affairs,
Corporate Communications.
This is episode 37, and we arehosting Aaron Markin, who is the
(00:29):
Vice President of Operations.
Aaron is going to walk usthrough the 2024-2025 winter
assessment and preparedness.
We've had Aaron on the podcastbefore talking about some
operations issues, and we lookforward to speaking with him
today.
Aaron, welcome.
SPEAKER_01 (00:47):
Thanks, Kevin.
Appreciate you having me andlooking forward to discussing
winter preparedness.
When you
SPEAKER_00 (00:53):
do the winter preparedness report, where are
you pulling the data from andwhat's the team really focused
on in
SPEAKER_01 (00:58):
that
SPEAKER_00 (00:59):
process?
SPEAKER_01 (01:00):
So winter preparedness is really a
year-round event in operations.
The official assessment of thedata starts in August.
We really look at what we expectto be available from a resource
perspective, so from a generatorperspective, from a special case
resource perspective, as well aswhat we expect to be able to get
(01:23):
into the market from an externalarea perspective, external
capacity.
what we expect to beunavailable.
So generators typically haveforced outages.
It's just part of the nature ofthings.
Things break.
Usually the best information onthat comes from historic
performance data of theresources.
(01:43):
So we look at that quite indetail.
And we also, from a winterperspective, look at the fuel
availability situation ofgenerators because that's really
key, especially as Many of thegenerators in New York are
natural gas fired, and thenatural gas system is primarily
built to serve the firm customerdemand, which is the heating
(02:06):
load primarily, and that'shigher in the winter, which
results in less gas beingavailable for electric gen.
SPEAKER_00 (02:13):
So you're looking at the amount of megawatts you can
expect to be on the system.
You're talking to thosegenerators to understand what
they're doing to maintain theirfacilities to get ready for
winter, so you have somereasonable confidence that
they're going to show up whenyou need them.
You're considering the age ofthese facilities because they're
getting older, and we're notbuilding new right now, at least
new gas fire generation.
(02:35):
And then you're thinking about,you talk about firm demand.
Maybe we can explain what thatis, and then if you can also
unpack for folks special caseresources.
SPEAKER_01 (02:44):
The special case resources are a class of
resources that are a bit unique.
They are actually loads ordemand on the system primarily.
Typically large industrialcustomers that have committed to
reduce demand in times of needor when we call upon them, which
ultimately makes them look likea supply resource in our market
(03:06):
because we can actually reducethe amount of electricity that
they're consuming in times ofneed.
SPEAKER_00 (03:12):
And so that helps out when demand is high and
control room operators areseeing how the system's
responding and And then we'llcall up those industrial
customers and say, it's game on.
You agreed to reduce your demandat this point and we need you to
do that.
SPEAKER_01 (03:26):
Correct.
SPEAKER_00 (03:27):
We talked about the age of the resources.
Let's just focus on that for aminute and how that factors into
your calculations, whether it'ssummer or winter looking
forward.
SPEAKER_01 (03:36):
Typically what we do when we assess either the summer
or the winter capacity goinginto the season is is look at an
average forced outage rate ofthe resources.
In technical terms, that's E4D,which is essentially the ability
of a resource to be availablewhen it's needed.
So each resource class and eachresource specifically has
(03:59):
different forced outage rate,and it can be based on many
things, one of which, as youalluded to, Kevin, is the age of
the unit.
So Even with a lot ofmaintenance that is occurring at
the units to keep them in primecondition, as a resource ages,
it's more likely to break.
I mean, if you think of yourcar, just the older it is, even
(04:21):
if you're doing the oil changesand the tire maintenance and
replacing the brakes, ascomponents age and get older,
they are more likely to break,which is is no different in the
generating fleet.
So we essentially look at thataverage forced outage rate over
the last couple of seasons, andthat is our starting point for
what we think is going to beunavailable.
(04:43):
Now, if we have specificinformation that an additional
generator has suffered a forcedoutage and its repair plan is
going to take longer toaccomplish than the season, We
consider that as
SPEAKER_00 (04:56):
unavailable as well.
Let's begin to unpack what youfound with this assessment.
So we will have sufficientwinter capacity for this
upcoming season, but there aresome things that jump out at you
with this data that give yousome pause and some concern.
SPEAKER_01 (05:10):
We really do a number of different scenarios
that try to encompass what wewould expect the winter to look
like.
We look at three different loadlevels, baseline, forecast,
which is essentially ourforecast that has about a 50%
probability of occurring for thewinter.
Then we look at two more extremeforecasts.
(05:31):
One is a 90-10 forecast, or aforecast that has about a 10%
probability of occurring, andthen a 99-1, or a forecast that
has about a 1% probability ofoccurring.
The colder it is, the moreelectric demand there is on the
system.
So each of those scenarios isrepresenting or looking at a
colder ambient condition reallyacross the state, which would
(05:55):
drive those demands higher.
SPEAKER_00 (05:57):
Weather is a huge component here, and you're
running several scenarios basedon several different outcomes of
weather that could arise.
And you're also looking at notjust the ambient temperature,
but how long that ambienttemperature might occur.
SPEAKER_01 (06:10):
Correct.
In the winter, load is primarilya function of how cold it is.
So the longer it's cold, themore energy is used for space
heating, for other things.
The higher the demand that wehave to serve is going to be.
The other thing that we reallylook at in the winter is the
available fuel to run theelectric generators.
So typically in the winter, themost likely scenarios that we
(06:35):
look at are under those colderconditions, the limited
availability of natural gas toserve power generators.
So we call that our firm fuelscenario, really looking at
units that have either firmcontracts to get natural gas off
the gas system Or in New York,we have a very large fleet of
dual fuel units, which meansthey can burn natural gas when
(06:59):
it's available and economic, butthey also have the ability to
burn liquid fuel.
And typically they have fairlylarge storage tanks on site to
store that fuel so that in timesof the unavailability of natural
gas or when natural gas becomesuneconomic, i.e.
the price of it is higher thanthe price of oil, They can
(07:20):
switch fuels and still provideelectric service at the most
economic rate.
SPEAKER_00 (07:26):
Really helpful element when it's really cold,
especially for extended periodsof time, but most of those
assets are in New York City.
Correct.
A lot of them are
SPEAKER_01 (07:34):
downstate, which helps because they are closer to
the fuel terminals.
They're typically able to beresupplied with oil using the
waterways.
Barges and ships can carry a lotmore fuel and are a lot easier
to resupply the quantities offuel that are needed to produce
electric generation.
Whereas if you think of a truckrunning over a road, it would
(07:57):
take a lot of trucks to resupplya power plant, especially in the
winter when the roads may besnow-covered or icy, which would
slow down those
SPEAKER_00 (08:06):
deliveries.
So we said, based on thisassessment, You're confident
there's sufficient wintercapacity margins going into this
season, but that there's somethings that do give you pause or
concern, and you've covered thefuel supplies.
But if we can dig a littledeeper into those scenarios
where you start to getconcerned, and I know that this
is a new focus.
(08:27):
You've seen some evidence on thesystem of this for several
years, but this concernassociated with adequate fuel
supplies is becoming a littlebit more acute.
SPEAKER_01 (08:36):
Yeah, so we really started to identify this fuel
concern in the polar vortexesthat occurred in 2013 and 2014,
as well as the winter of 2016,2017.
What it really boils down to isthe ability of the units to be
able to resupply that liquidstorage in times of need.
(08:59):
So when it gets cold and thoseunits switch to the liquid
fuels, That puts a lot ofpressure on the liquid fuels
inventory and systems to be ableto resupply those units.
So the longer the duration forthe units to burn oil, the more
pressure there is to be able tokeep them supplied.
(09:20):
And as we've retired units thatdidn't rely on oil to meet those
needs, in particular, someretirements of coal units
upstate, as well as retirementsof nuclear units downstate, both
of which would provide electricenergy, especially during these
cold snaps, and not use the oil.
(09:41):
So their retirements put morepressure on the liquid fuel
delivery system in these coldweather periods.
SPEAKER_00 (09:47):
One takeaway is that the state and the federal public
policies of transitioning to adecarbonized system to address
climate change are working.
SPEAKER_01 (09:54):
Yes.
SPEAKER_00 (09:55):
One of the other takeaways is we've got to
account for this growing demandassociated with electric heat.
So...
When you do an assessment likethis, what are some of those
data points that you see?
Obviously, people are installingheat pumps.
The CLCPA, Climate Leadershipand Community Protection Act, is
working and forcing change inthe marketplace.
What is it that you're seeingwhen you put together these
(10:17):
winter assessments?
SPEAKER_01 (10:18):
The implementation of the public policy from an
electrification perspectivemanifests itself in our capacity
assessment is what we areforecasting from a peak load
demand perspective.
So right now, we're seeing theload over last year has actually
dipped a little bit.
That's primarily due to economicactivity.
(10:40):
But as we look out into thefuture, we see significant
increases in winter demands as aresult of the projected
electrification.
So much so that in the early2030s, we're expecting winter
demand that exceeds the summerdemand, which would be a change
for New York, who's primarilybeen summer peaking for a number
(11:02):
of
SPEAKER_00 (11:02):
years.
This is a big change that we'vebeen talking about as an
organization for a while now,switching from a summer peaking
system to a winter peakingsystem.
When we look at the futureprojected demand, if we didn't
have that electrification of thehousing and the transportation
sector, we'd actually seedeclining winter demand over
time.
But when we layer that on, wehave to build a system to
(11:24):
accommodate for that changeover.
So Aaron, we talked about thedeclining reserve margins, but
actually we're seeing additionson the system, but it comes
mostly with behind the metersolar, which you folks are
accounting for in real time inthe control room.
You know how much is there andhow much you can back down some
(11:46):
of those fossil resources.
Talk us through how you do that,especially in winter.
It's a little bit morechallenging.
SPEAKER_01 (11:54):
Yeah, so a number of years ago, we took on an
initiative to start forecastingthe behind-the-meter solar
resources.
We contract with a vendor whoprovides us a daily estimate of
what the production will be fromall those behind-the-meter
resources, because it is reallya forecasting challenge.
But what they provide, we'reable to use to augment our
(12:17):
demand forecast.
so that we can commit the mostefficient set of resources.
So we're actually counting onthat behind-the-meter solar
resource showing up to the levelthat the forecast vendor is
providing, and then we commitadditional resources or decommit
resources to meet the demand atthe lowest cost.
(12:37):
In the winter, the peak demandis typically in the evening
after the sun is set, so thosesolar resources don't provide a
lot of reliability value at thetime of peak, But any power
production that either thebehind-the-meter solar or the
front-of-the-meter solarresources provide when the sun
is up actually offsets the needto burn fossil fuels, stored
(13:00):
fuels that may have limitedinventory, especially during
these cold snaps as we've talkedabout.
So there is benefit to them.
Do the market systems take asmuch advantage of that to meet
the demand using the least-costresources?
And of course, the future designis that this is where storage
can come in overnight.
Correct.
(13:20):
So the ability of a storagedevice to actually capture that
production when it's availableand shift its availability to
times when the electric systemneeds it is really the key value
and benefit of the storageresources.
SPEAKER_00 (13:35):
But in highlighting the complexity going forward
with the demand forecast, Withbehind-the-meter solar or
front-of-the-meter solar and theadditional storage capacity
capability, that's also going tobe a bit of a challenge in
forecasting for the day ahead.
SPEAKER_01 (13:53):
Correct, because those storage devices that we
expect to get built have limitedduration.
So they can store whateveramount of energy they're
designed to but it is likely notgoing to be a 24-hour resource.
And at some point, you need theenergy on the system to recharge
those storage devices so they'reavailable for the next time of
(14:14):
need.
So as we look at more and moreintermittents coming into the
system, being able to forecasttheir availability so we can
time the charging of the storageappropriately to make sure that
we continue to meet reliabilityneeds
SPEAKER_00 (14:29):
is going to be an additional challenge.
Timing is everything in thiscase, and what we call round
trip is you're going to have todo some heavy calculations.
Accounting also for those reallycold temperatures and battery
performance is going to beanother kind of curveball.
SPEAKER_01 (14:42):
Correct.
The efficiency of those storageresources changes with
temperature.
We'll have to forecast that.
The additional resource typethat we haven't talked a lot
about is wind.
So in the winter, the windpatterns are stronger.
So to get more energy out of thewind resources, we have systems
that can forecast theiravailability and provide
(15:04):
situational awareness to theoperators.
But the going forward challengeis going to be coordinating when
the wind is available, when thesun is available, when to charge
the storage resources, when isthe true demand for electricity,
and trying to move all thosepieces around to make sure that
we always have enough supply tomeet the demand when it
SPEAKER_00 (15:26):
shows up.
Aligning the amount of resourceswith the operations and dispatch
of those resources with theweather and timing it day to
night.
SPEAKER_01 (15:37):
Correct.
And then having the capabilityto respond to unexpected events
like we do today.
So sudden unavailability of atransmission line, of a
generator, or if the forecast iswrong for solar production or
wind production.
and how to manage all thosevariables through time.
SPEAKER_00 (15:55):
So when we contemplate switching from a
summer peaking system to awinter peaking system, what are
those elements that you folksare focused on in operating the
grid?
SPEAKER_01 (16:05):
Yeah, that's a great question.
So one of the primary concerns,and we've covered it a bit here,
is the resource mix that's goingto be available to serve that
increased winter load.
With the fuel infrastructurethat's in place, there are
concerns of meeting thatincreased winter demand,
especially when you factor inthe unavailability of natural
(16:26):
gas, which primarily occurs inthe winter.
When you think of a summerdemand, which can be quite a bit
higher today than the winterdemand, the natural gas system
has headroom to be able to rungas-only generators to serve
that.
As we transition to a winterpeaking system, the concern and
focus is really what is theresource mix that we need to
(16:48):
build and have in place to beable to serve that winter
SPEAKER_00 (16:52):
demand.
In other words, we need morecapacity.
We need more resources on thesystem.
The cooling demand is prettymuch built into the system
during summer now.
But the winter paradigm issomething brand new.
It's a new frontier goingforward.
Correct.
So back to winter for a second.
If we do start to see decliningreserves in the moment, what are
some of the tools?
(17:13):
If we do have an event thatlooks something like Winter
Storm Elliott, what is it thatyou have on hand in terms of
tools and communications?
Take us into the control room,if you will.
Give folks an idea of some ofthe steps you would take.
And if we get a little heads upon the weather before it
happens, what are you doing toprepare for that event?
SPEAKER_01 (17:32):
As we enter any season, we're really looking out
five and seven days in thefuture.
What is the weather?
What conditions are going toexist?
What is the forecasted demand?
And how are we going to servethat demand?
So when we head into a period ofhigher demand, Typically, a
number of maintenance outagesscheduled, not only on the
transmission system, but on thegenerators so that they can be
(17:55):
prepared.
The first thing we'll do isrequest those facilities that
are out for maintenance bereturned to service.
We also start communication withthe fuel suppliers, the natural
gas system, the suppliers of oilinventory in the state to make
sure they're ready and we havegood situational awareness as to
their capabilities.
(18:16):
to serve electric generators.
SPEAKER_00 (18:18):
This is what we would refer to as gas-electric
coordination, making sure thatthose two commodities are
prepared to address that event.
SPEAKER_01 (18:25):
Correct.
The other thing we do as part ofa recurring process is we
actually survey the generatorsin New York to understand their
fuel situation.
Do they have firm gas contracts?
Do they have on-site storagecapability?
How much liquid storage do theyhave on-site?
What are their plans forreplenishment over the near
(18:46):
term?
That all factors into ouroperational readiness plan as we
go in to have good situationalawareness of the resources that
will be available to us to servethese needs.
Aaron, is this an area that'sbecoming more challenging
SPEAKER_00 (19:00):
in recent years?
SPEAKER_01 (19:01):
Yes, definitely with the push to convert oil heating
to natural gas.
That's put additional load onthe gas system or demand on the
gas system, which againtranslates into less gas being
available for power gen.
Also, as the demand over thelonger term for oil in the state
for heating has declined, thatmeans some of that
(19:25):
infrastructure to serve that oildemand has also been retired.
In these times where we'reheavily reliant on the oil
infrastructure and that resupplychain, that again puts
additional stress on thatbecause the headroom isn't as
great on that system anymoreeither.
SPEAKER_00 (19:43):
So there's Several different communications
protocols the operators have inreal time with various different
state agencies.
We talked about the reliabilityorganizations.
Walk us through some of thosethings too.
SPEAKER_01 (19:56):
As we approach closer to real time, we run our
day ahead market.
So that runs every day.
And that's the basis for thecommitment of generation that we
need to serve the demand.
From there, the operators reallyscrutinize that commitment for
the next day.
looking at what units werecommitted, what is the demand,
any near-term changes to whatthe load forecast is going to be
(20:20):
based on updated weatherconditions, any additional
changes to supply based oninformation that comes into the
control room on generatoravailability.
But we also communicate with ourneighboring electric
organizations and really take anassessment of their conditions
as well, because New York ispart of the interconnected
(20:41):
electric system.
We can buy and sell electricitywith our neighbors.
That basically expands the poolof resources that are available
to us to serve demand.
But before we count on that, wewant to have a full
understanding of what are theconditions in the neighboring
regions.
That coordination really goes oncontinuously between the control
(21:04):
room at the NYSO and theneighboring control areas.
And there's always refinementsto the plan as we approach real
time.
SPEAKER_00 (21:10):
On the other side of that equation, you want to know
what our neighboring RTOs andISOs capacity profile is.
Because if they're in need andwe're in a position to help,
they're going to call on us forthat.
I think people, not everybodyunderstands or realizes that the
grid is so interconnected.
SPEAKER_01 (21:27):
It's very interconnected.
And there's a large benefit thatwe in New York get from being
interconnected because We canlean on the neighbors if they
have capability available intimes of need, and we can also
help support them in their timesof need if we've got access
capability.
SPEAKER_00 (21:44):
So especially in emergency operating protocols,
if they look like they're movingtowards a position where they
are going to be in need and weneed to help, or vice versa.
SPEAKER_01 (21:53):
Correct.
And then, in addition, there's anumber of emergency actions that
the operators can take in thatcategory of procedures.
we have the ability to call onconsumers to reduce demand.
So we typically call thatvoluntary curtailment.
So if that were to occur, you'dsee on your local news or maybe
(22:15):
from your local utility arequest to conserve energy in
certain times if you're able to.
The other thing we can do isrequest emergency energy
purchases from neighboringareas.
Again, if they've got thecapability to support us, we can
actually request and buy energyenergy into New York in an
emergency fashion to helpsupport the load in New York.
(22:40):
The other thing we can do isthere's a concept of reserve on
the electric system.
So typically we procure enoughgeneration capacity to serve the
demand plus some headroom orreserve so that we're always
able and ready to respond tocontingency events or unexpected
(23:00):
forced outages of generators.
So typically, we try to procureenough reserve to be able to
replace two of the largestgenerators.
But in times of need, we canactually reduce that amount of
energy that we're holding asreserve, convert it to energy to
serve demand.
And then the last step or theultimate step would actually be
(23:24):
to start disconnecting customersin order to keep the system
whole and maintain the theoverall electric system.
SPEAKER_00 (23:33):
I imagine that one of those protocols, the
emergency purchases, is becomingmore complex, too, in real time
because not only are we seeingreliability margins declining
and the amount of capacitynarrowing a bit, but that's a
dynamic that's happening withour neighbors and across the
country, yes?
SPEAKER_01 (23:51):
Correct, yes.
As the fleet and the gridtransitions, we are seeing those
narrowing margins across theindustry And so in times of
need, especially if the coldsnap or the weather phenomenon
that's driving the need in NewYork is broader than just New
York, that can put stress on theregional power grid and even the
(24:13):
regional gas supply or oilsupply.
So really the coordination thatwe spoke to is really increasing
in importance so that we canreally fully understand what the
region looks like, not only NewYork, to make sure we can be
ready to serve demand.
SPEAKER_00 (24:30):
And what you just described is what played out in
Winter Storm Elliot, is thatweather moved west to east and
started to impact the system toour south and west and
eventually arrived in New Yorkhere.
That was something that's hardto plan for because it also
happened with such speed.
SPEAKER_01 (24:45):
Yes.
One of the things that we'reseeing is that the rate of
change, it seems to beincreasing, where you go from
things are normal, things areworking well, to things start to
fail.
And we saw that during winterstorm Elliott.
You know, as that weather movedfrom west to east and there was
issues with generators beingable to continue to run, you
(25:07):
know, some of them had freezingissues.
There was also reduction in theamount of gas available.
because the wellheads froze orthe pipeline infrastructure had
issues with that cold weather.
So there was a really, a fairlyrapid transition of how those
two things then impacted theelectric system and the
(25:27):
operators through thecoordination protocols that we
have in place and train on wereable to respond to that.
The other key aspect from a NewYork perspective was the ability
of those dual fuel generators toswitch to oil in short notice So
when the natural gas becameunavailable, the generating
units in New York were able toswitch to that liquid fuel,
(25:48):
continue to supply the needs ofNew Yorkers, and were actually
allowed us to assist some of the
SPEAKER_00 (25:55):
neighbors.
All right, well, let's shiftjust a little bit.
I think it's important andhelpful to review those
situations again, and then whatwe have in place to make sure
the grid stays reliable in thosesituations.
But We remind folks that yourassessment does show that we're
ready to go into this winter.
You're confident of that.
I think it's probably helpful tomaybe end on this note, but if
you can walk through with us thegreater collaboration we have
(26:16):
here at this ISO with theplanning department.
SPEAKER_01 (26:21):
The tools that the operators have to manage these
events don't appear immediately.
So there's a lot of coordinationand planning that needs to go in
place to make sure that When weactually get to real-time
operation, the tools areavailable to serve the needs.
As you mentioned, Kevin, theplanning department has a number
of assessments that they lookout into the future, trying to
(26:44):
assess what the system is goingto look like under those
scenarios and are there needsthat we can identify now so that
the market can respond to thoseto provide the resources we
need.
SPEAKER_00 (26:55):
Well, incredibly interesting, complex, and
important.
Thanks for taking us through allof these different tools,
elements, and ideas.
And kudos to you and theoperators for getting us through
these tough situations.
And we appreciate you coming bythe podcast.
And we'd love to have you backin the future.
Thanks, Kevin.
Appreciate it.
(27:19):
Thank you for joining us.
As a reminder, the New YorkIndependent System Operator,
NYISO for short, is responsiblefor reliably managing New York's
power grid and energy marketsand providing independent data
to policymakers and the public.
For more independent info,please visit the NYISO blog at
www.nyiso.com.
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