#78 - Rich Blair, Staying in Front of the Trends

Rich Blair is a beef producer from Sturgis, SD. The Blair family has grown a cowherd over the last 25 years that is focused on meeting demands for their own ranching operation, their genetics customers, the feeding industry and the beef consumer. In addition to the cowherd, Rich also has a commodity brokerage business, where he provides risk management tools for northern plains producers. 

www.blairbrosangus.com

Episode Transcript

(00:05):
Thanks for joining us forepisode 78 of Practically
Ranching.
I'm Matt Perrier, and we're herethanks to Dalebanks Angus, your
home for practical profitablegenetics since 1904.
We're finally back from a bit ofa summer break and darned
excited to be here.
I really didn't intend to beoffline quite this long, but the

(00:29):
ranch and the family tookpriority, so there you are.
We're back in action though, andwe've got a great guest to kick
things off for this fall.
Rich Blair is a beef producerfrom Sturgis, South Dakota.
The Blair family has grown a cowherd over the last 25 years or

(00:50):
so that's focused on meetingdemands for their own ranching
operation, for their customers,in the genetics business, for
the feeding industry, andespecially the beef consumer.
In addition to the cow herd,rich also has a commodity
brokerage business where heprovides risk management tools

(01:10):
for Northern Plains producers.
I've known of Rich for a coupleof decades, and I occasionally
get the opportunity to visitwith him at industry events and
things every few years and, andevery time that I do, I'm really
impressed.
I'm impressed with histhoughtful, humble, fairly quiet

(01:32):
way of tackling some prettychallenging industry issues on a
lot of different fronts.
As this episode's titleindicates, rich likes to stay
out in front of industry trends.
In so doing, he really doesn'tseem to worry too much about
letting emotion and traditionand things like that get in the

(01:52):
way.
I.
And, uh, because Rich had justfinished up with a trading day,
and because we're currently inone of the largest wildest bull
markets that any of us have everwitnessed, we stayed fairly
focused on market dynamics, onsupply and demand fundamentals
and other issues that surroundbeef cattle merchandising.

(02:15):
You know, each time I edit oneof these podcasts that I record,
I learn that each of us,especially me, have a phrase
that we use quite a bit as we'rethinking or contemplating an
answer.
And I noticed that one of Rich'sgo-to lines was, oh, I don't
know.

(02:36):
Which was usually then followedby a folksy, very poignant
nugget of wisdom that proved tome.
Yeah.
Rich, I think you do know.
You know, I called this podcastPractically Ranching, and when I
get to visit with guys likeRich, I think the name fits
pretty well.

(02:57):
There's a lot of nuance intoday's cattle market.
There are a lot of unknowns.
There is a lot at stake, butRich's practical way of learning
from the past, looking to thefuture and figuring out a plan
for today is invaluable.
Regardless of your perspectiveon the many marketing issues

(03:20):
that we tackle in this podcastepisode, I think you're gonna
find some valuable informationduring this episode with Rich
Blair.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (03:31):
get everything straightened out
after the close in Chicago?

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02 (03:34):
pretty much.
I don't know.
That's crazy, crazy times.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (03:39):
That they are.
So I'd ask you to kind of startus out by telling everything
that you and your brother andsons and everybody does there
Blair brothers, but I usuallyonly record for an hour and as
many irons as you've got in thefire.
I'm not sure we'd have time totalk about everything.
I mean, when you meet somebodyin an airport or at a meeting,

(04:04):
what do you tell'em that you do?

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (04:09):
Uh, I got a commodity brokerage
office and a ranch.
Ranching operation.
That's about all I, that's aboutwhat I tell'em.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (04:17):
Well, that's probably just vague
enough that gives you a littlebit of, uh, of leeway.
But in that ranching operation,you've got quite a few different
irons in the fire there.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-0 (04:26):
there's not, there's not many people
will, will really ask a lot ofquestions after that, which is
good.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (04:36):
Well, I have to admit, You're one of
these people who we could talkabout nearly any topic in the
beef industry and, and I thinkyou would have some experience
on, I was trying to kind of getsome thoughts together late last
week and this weekend inpreparation, and my daughter
Ava, who's just started to workfor, um, on her career after she

(04:58):
graduated from K State, um, shesent me a Facebook meme or post,
I don't know what they'recalled, but it said something to
the effect of, and it was from abeef producer or a beef producer
group, something to the effectof pounds, pay the bills,
everything else is just amarketing scheme.

(05:21):
I said, what I said, and youknow, those posts kind of
cracked me up sometimes, butthis one in particular, she
said, how do you, how would youeven respond to that?
Well, I don't.
I don't comment or read thecomments very often, but I told
Ava my response would be, I'llbet these folks didn't remember
1996 or the eighties or all thetimes that we tried to just

(05:43):
produce pounds that maybeweren't the quality that the
consumer was wanting.
I mean, how, from your seat,whether it be in your commodity
trading business or your seedstock herd, or your cattle
feeding entity or commercial cowcalf operation, how do you
respond to something like thattoday?
And, and granted, yeah, we'vegot, gotta make pounds, it makes

(06:07):
sense.
But, is that all there is in thebeef industry today?

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025 (06:11):
I don't know.
My first response to that is Iassume he is kinda knocking
value based marketing and, andjust calling that a marketing
scheme saying it as a, as it's abad thing, but.
I don't know.
My thought about that to someextent is this person is

(06:36):
possibly in the cattle business,but if that is the only, market
that they have, or their reasonfor being in the cattle business
is raise pounds, I think they'remissing an awful lot of the
market.
you know, think of what, thinkof what, a really good heifer
calf that's breeding quality isgonna bring, I don't know, say

(06:58):
this fall, she's gonna bring aheck of a lot more than what she
weighs.
I know.
I mean, it's not just poundsthat are gonna determine her
value.
I know that.
And same thing with bred heifersand bred cows and, and a lot of
other things.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (07:13):
Well, and even on the feeding side of
things, and I think you'reright, I think that that would
have been a little bit of aknock against value-based
marketing and probably anythingthat would be a branded type,
consumer driven, consumersignaled type of, uh, of program
that would segment the beefmarketplace and try to

(07:35):
incentivize producing somethingbesides just commodity beef.
And, and, and that's why I saidmy comment to Ava.
Th they, they must not have asmuch gray hair as I do because
every time in my life until thislast run up and, and maybe 2014,
we could say the same thing, butevery other time that retail

(07:57):
beef prices got a little bitoutta whack with pork and
poultry and all of our othercompeting proteins, man, we
would absolutely crash thismarket as quickly as you could
do anything because we'd alreadystarted heifer retention.
And so supplies were starting tocome back up and, and then all

(08:19):
of a sudden, we got a littleoutta line and they traded down
to pork and poultry.
And the fact of the matter is,everything you read today says
that consumer, for whateverreason, is not trading down, at
least like we have seen in pastyears.
And my rationale is because eventhough they kind of grimace a

(08:39):
little when they buy that highdollar steak, when it eats well
and their family brags on'em andthanks'em and remembers that
meal experience, they come backand do it again at a higher
price point next time.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (08:54):
Oh man, Matt, I mean, this, this
market has just been and it'shard to imagine why we've gone
as high as we have.
Um, but you know, at this pointin time, I think it's been a
demand market.
don't think the reason we're atthese price levels today is not

(09:15):
because we're, we don't have anypounds of beef on the market.
it, it is, it's totally consumerdemand and what they're willing
to pay for our product thegrocery store in the restaurant.
And you know, I, I rememberthinking whenever COVID hit and

(09:39):
grocery stores were shelves werebare and, and, uh, people
couldn't get product.
And the beef market went toduring COVID, and I could re
recall thinking, boy, alwayssaid all my life, we can't sell
beef that high.

matt_2_09-02-2025_14522 (09:55):
Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (09:55):
guess at that point COVID proved him
wrong because we could sell beefthat high.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (09:59):
Right.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2 (10:00):
it's just, it's a, it's an amazing
story what beef demand has done.
And I, I thought it was funny.
I listened to one of yourpodcasts before and you talked
about Yeah.
Where we had fat cattle in 60.
You know, traded in a range of60 to$82 for a long time back

(10:20):
there in the eighties andnineties.

matt_2_09-02-2025_14522 (10:24):
Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2 (10:24):
And, and I was, you know, involved in
trying to, to watch the marketat that time and forecast of
which way the, where the trendwas going.
And every time we'd get to 82bucks, the, the, the market
would sell off.
And, and it took me severalyears later to figure out, well,

(10:45):
the reason that was, was becauseretail beef prices were$2 and 11

matt_2_09-02-2025_14522 (10:50):
Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (10:51):
and every time, and that equated to
$80 fat cattle.
And every time we got up to thetop of that, we didn't have
enough power to make theretailer raises price.
And, and so there we were stuck.
And boy, now it's just, youknow, look at where retail
prices are today.
You know, they're, they're ateight 90 and.

(11:14):
nine and half on choice product.
It's just a whole differentmarket.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (11:20):
And not only that, not only have
they priced those higher andhigher and higher and continued
to sell it, there's some ofthese, I mean, look at Walmart
and what they're doing with thePrime Pursuits program.
I would say, and I don't knowthat anybody at Walmart has ever
said this, but I would interpretthat to what they're doing is

(11:43):
almost placing beef out there asa loss leader to get foot
traffic into their stores sothat they'll go ahead and buy
all the other expensive cheesesand bottle of wine or whatever
else that they buy with thesteak.
When we can be at that point anddraw foot traffic into the store
and the retailer go, you knowwhat?

(12:04):
I can sell this at a zero marginor maybe even a negative margin.
Holy smokes.
I mean, what?
How in the world did that happenfrom the days when I was
graduating from college and wetalk about why, whatever it was,
four in 10 beef eatingexperiences were unsatisfactory

(12:24):
and they traded down to aboneless, skinless, tasteless
chicken breast.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (12:30):
No, I think that's exactly right.
I mean, I think, I think we'veimproved the quality of our
product and and demand is proventhat that's what people want.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (12:42):
Yep.
Yep.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (12:43):
I, I think, I think it's the only
answer for it, that our productis that much better.
And, and I mean, it's likepeople, you know, uh, will
hardly ever order a pork chop ina restaurant.

matt_2_09-02-2025_14522 (13:02):
Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2 (13:02):
just because, you know, I, I hate to
say it, but it's not that good aproduct not for me to go into a
restaurant and spend 50 bucks oneating a meal.
I'm not going to eat a porkchop.
I'm gonna have a filet or a rib

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (13:17):
yep, yep.
You and, uh.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (13:19):
it will be good.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (13:21):
And hopefully everybody else
continues to do the same.
Your comment about today'smarket being largely, if not
almost solely driven by demand.
That's the thing I kind ofchuckle as I hear people talk,
especially some of these, youknow, more consumer news type
services saying, well, thereason beef prices are so high

(13:41):
is because of the drought andwe've got fewer cows and
everything else.
But like you said, we're stillselling close to now.
In the coming months, we may getreally tight, but close to the
same number of pounds justbecause we're putting more
pounds per head and moving itthrough the system.
And I heard another, uh,analyst, commodity trader broker

(14:03):
back in January when we firstsold fat cattle, a little above
two bucks.
He said, guys, hold on, becausethis isn't a supply driven
market yet.
And some of the, some of thefolks in the room kind of.
Bristled up and said, oh, we gottight cow supplies, et cetera,
et cetera.
And he said, no, not yet.
I mean, we haven't hit ashortage of pounds yet.

(14:23):
And when we start keepingreplacement females, which I
think we are just starting todo, my personal opinion, um,
then this deal could really getwild.
And I guess my question to youis, without putting you on the
hot seat, how high is too highwhen we do break the thing and,
and, uh, it gets even more outtawhack.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (14:46):
Uh, I don't know if anybody knows
how high is too high.
You know, cattle market is aanticipatory market and it will
anticipate.
Uh, the increase in numbers orthe decrease in demand, well
before it happens, but, um, youknow, this market has been a

(15:09):
classic cash led bull market.
I mean, the cash has led thefutures market kicking and
screaming to the upside, andespecially in the feeder cattle

matt_2_09-02-2025_14522 (15:22):
Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (15:23):
it.
like to say right now, you know,everybody in the cow business
is, is got a common denominator.
I mean, and that's from thepacker to the guy that runs six
head of cows is they're allchasing inventory.
They all, they all feel likethey want more inventory'cause

(15:45):
they need something to sell.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (15:47):
Right.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2 (15:48):
it's just a, it's amazing how that
psychology is playing right now.
And I think that's what's.
Driving higher prices every weekand, and, and just driving a lot
of the market is everybody'schasing the inventory.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (16:05):
I ran into a customer just last
Thursday in Eureka, Kansas, anduh, he had sold a set of weaned
fall calves, local livestockmarket here, and it was the
first instance that I'd heard, Iknew this would happen.
I didn't.
Know when, but first instance Ihad heard that his heifers, and

(16:26):
he'd already kept his ownreplacements, but his heifers
outsold the steers both on a perpound and a per head basis.
And so that tells me that all ofa sudden the cow calf producer
either new entrants into thebusiness or folks because
they've had some rain andthey've got some cheap forage
and whatever else they're,they're chasing inventory too

(16:47):
and trying to rebuild some ofthese cow herds.
So I would, I would sayanecdotally, and I have no other
data'cause we haven't had a morereal recent cattle on feed
report that has shown anydifferent than that 30 whatever,
seven, 8% heifer on feed data.
But, uh, I would say that we'refinally, maybe we've, we've
flipped that switch and, andthey're starting to keep some

(17:07):
heifers.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (17:08):
Yeah.
It just takes so, long before wecan really get that done.
I mean, especially it seems likein

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (17:17):
It's my part of the world

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (17:18):
in the north, I mean it, the, you
know, heifer calves that reallyneeded to be bred, needed to be
bred last spring, and there'snot many people that are gonna
breed them

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (17:31):
today.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-0 (17:31):
because that calving period doesn't work
in this, in

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (17:35):
Sure.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (17:36):
And so, I mean, you're, it takes

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (17:39):
Quite a while.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (17:40):
gotta kind of.
Plan ahead to keep those heifersand get'em bred in the spring,
because fall breeding doesn'twork here.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (17:48):
Yeah.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (17:48):
um, it, it's been a long time since
we saw heifers, outsell steerstoo.
But, you know, that's coming

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (17:55):
Right.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (17:56):
it's, it's, it's gonna be.
Um, and that goes back to yourguys talk about, know,
everything else is a marketingscheme.
Well, I guess my question to himis, what's

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (18:10):
What's so bad about it?

squadcaster-h63b_2_09 (18:11):
marketing scheme?
Most people, you need amarketing scheme in this, in
this business, for the mostpart.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (18:19):
I think it's interesting to me
that so many of our industrysquabbles, and I mean you can
take your pick over the last 20to 50 years.
So many of our industrysquabbles are a group who says,
we want to continue to be acommodity type of ag product as

(18:41):
opposed to a group or groups whosay, we want an opportunity to
segment the market and figureout what somebody will pay more
for, whether that be beef orreplacement females or bulls or
semen, or whatever the case maybe.
And and quite often if you boilit down to it is, are we gonna
break from tradition and thatcommodity mindset?

(19:03):
Or aren't we?
And um, and you know, that you'dthink that capitalism would win
the day, but sometimes, um, itseems like we, we revert to
those kind of more traditionbased approaches.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (19:17):
Matt, I, I, I think a lot of that is
because of, you know, you lookat the players in the industry
and the structure of what it'salways been, and a lot of the
players in the industry, used tobe, especially, I don't know,
earlier days of my career, wasit.
wanted to buy the, the cattlethat had not been well taken

(19:41):
care of and were green andupgrade'em into the take below
average cattle and upgrade'em toaverage and sell'em on the
average price.
was, that was a business modelthat worked, was very successful
in the cattle industry for longtime through the seventies,

(20:02):
eighties, nineties, and even alittle bit into this last
decade.
But I think, you know, that haskind of changed and there's
people that, that don't want tochange with that because they
know how to play that game.
They know how to upgrade cattleand'em at the average, but they
don't know how to the cattlethat truly have extra value to

(20:28):
'em and know how to market thosecattle that have extra value and
take advantage of that.
And that, that's probably theone thing that got us kinda
kinda breeding genetics and, andusing AI bulls and selecting

(20:50):
for, um, for those kind ofthings that would make a
premium, because those are thekind of cattle that, um, that
don't ever quit you.
They just, you know, some orderbuyers won't like to buy'em
because they look too fleshy to'em or they don't look, you
know, green enough to'em.

(21:11):
And the thing is, they don'tunderstand that those kind of
cattle can just go on and goand, I mean, that's, that's, and

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (21:21):
And.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09 (21:22):
important thing in the market today.
You know, if, if you wanna knowwhat to pay for a set of feeder
cattle, the first thing you'vegotta figure out for yourself
is.
What will the end weight be onthem?
You know, can I get'em to 1500pounds or can I get'em to 17 or
1750?
mean, it doesn't take very longto sit down with a pencil and

(21:43):
figure out that, to, to getthese cattle back to a break
even that works.
You gotta put a lot of weight on'em uh, that's just kinda the
key today in my mind.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (21:55):
So through the years, through the
decades, you've fed tens ofthousands, heck, maybe hundreds
of thousands of cattle, yourown, probably others.
And you've seen that marketingsystem morph into what we have
today and value-based marketing,as you mentioned a bit ago, in
my opinion, and I think inyours, has driven and has

(22:19):
enabled us to capture back a lotof that demand.
One, and we've talked about iton this podcast ad nauseum, but
one at least perceived,Consequence of value-based
marketing is that we got fewercattle in that cash negotiated
market week to week, and yetwe're still basing all those

(22:41):
value, most of those value-basedgrids off of a negotiated price
in some region.
Is that still effective fromyour standpoint as a cattle
feeder?
Is there a better mouse trap?
Do we need more cash, cattle, etcetera, et cetera?

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (22:57):
Well, you know, Matt, I've kinda
always been a Turner Iner forthe last 20 years.
I haven't been a, pricenegotiator on the Fed Cal end of
it that much.
But, you know, I think we gottaremember a little bit who, you
know, what's

matt_2_09-02-2025_14522 (23:17):
What's.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (23:17):
it to not have to, you know, trade
a lot of cash cattle or tradeall these cash cattle.
I mean, it's the feed yards thathave basically driven that.
I don't think the packer hasheld a gun to their head and
said, don't want to negotiateprice with you anymore.
We just want you to turn cattleinto us.

(23:40):
I think, I think it's thefeedlots that, has instigated
that and.
You know, oh, there was an awfullot of talk about this whenever
they were pushing for the 50 14rule and we, we gotta, we gotta
regulate how feed yards can sellcattle and how packers can buy

(24:00):
cattle.
And, and I guess I alwaysthought that was a big mistake
and I think, I think you'vegotta give these feed yard guys
a little bit of credit that whenthe thing quits working for'em,
they'll change it.
But, you know, it's stillworking for them and I think

(24:21):
it's still working for the bulkof the people and I don't know
what percentage that we need alive trade.
I'm not smart enough to tell youthat, and I darn sure don't
think the government's smartenough to tell us that.
But, you know, it's like I say,nobody's holding a gun to the
feed yard manager's head andsaying you need to sell cattle.

(24:43):
This way and you can't negotiateprice well if it, if it quits
working for'em, I guess I havefaith in them that they're gonna
change it.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (24:53):
Will.
What we're seeing today, and Iassume that I haven't looked
here the last couple weeks, butI know for the last several
months there's been asignificant basis, significant
difference in the cash pricefrom North to South.
And granted, there is gonna besome quality differential from,
let's say, the Texas panhandleto Western Nebraska or Iowa or

(25:17):
wherever you wanna base that,but.
Your thoughts on why we've seena, a, a more significant, even
as a percentage of these higherprices, why there's such a
difference in that live pricenegotiated price from North to
South these last few months?

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (25:36):
Uh, I don't know.
There's probably lots of reasonsfor it.
mean, um, you're, you're talking

matt_2_09-02-2025_14522 (25:47):
talking to.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2 (25:47):
that has trucked his cattle through
Nebraska to take him to Kansasto sell him on the average
Kansas price.
So when you do things thatstupid, I think you try to look
at yourself and see what isgoing on.

(26:09):
and that's almost as stupid asfeeding$8 corn and taking a
heavyweight discount on mysteers.
It's kind of the same deal, butI,

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (26:22):
I

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (26:23):
think it's a leverage thing.
you know, gotta

matt_2_09-02-2025_1 (26:27):
understand.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09- (26:28):
country.
I was tired of calving in Marchand April, and they've gone to
May and I didn't realize howwidespread it was until even
last fall uh, you know, we weredry in September, way dry.
And I kept thinking, man, we'regonna start selling calves in
sale barn.
And never showed up.

(26:49):
And they never showed up andthey never showed up till the
10th of October.
I had asked one of the sale barnguys, I says, what, what, what's
going on?
How come nobody's bringing anycalves to me?
He says, well, shoot, they'veall backed their cabin dates up
till May, and their cows arestill kind of fat, even though
it's kind of dry and they justkind of want to get a little
more pounds on'em.
Well, you look back into thenineties and the the modus

(27:11):
operandi or whatever for thecorn belt was, you take the big
heavy calves and you push'em andyou have'em done in and April,

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (27:20):
Yep.
Sell'em on that April market

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2 (27:21):
and,

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (27:22):
and

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (27:22):
and by golly, have'em done by

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (27:24):
by June.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (27:25):
or it's.
really bad.
And I, I had a great friend, amarket analyst, he told me,
well, there should be a lawagainst selling fat cattle in
July.
'cause it's just, and now that'sthe,

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (27:37):
until this year, that's.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02 (27:38):
that's the great market.
But I, you know, I've beentelling people that think by the
first November, Texas is gonnabe premium to, to Nebraska.
And they're, they're like, howcan you say that?
And I just say, well, I, I thinkit's leverage.
I think, know, the reasonNebraska is$10 over, Texas and

(28:02):
Kansas in May and June is'causethey don't have the calf beds
they used to have.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (28:07):
Hmm.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (28:08):
And we'll see when Texas hits into
the, the hole where the Mexicancattle should be this fall.
We'll see whether Texas can sellpremium to Nebraska, but that
would still be my bet.
I, I sent my calf feds to, tokept them in South Dakota this

(28:28):
year and I sent my yearlingsback to Kansas, so we'll see.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (28:32):
Well, we appreciate it, rich.
Keep, keep sending them toKansas.
Don't, don't worry about thatdifferential.
We'll, we'll make it up and costof gain or whatever the case may
be.
Well, that's probably not trueeither.
Depends on the winter, Isuppose.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (28:45):
Yeah.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (28:46):
and that's one of the things, um, I
keep going back to this Facebookpost, but whether it be at the
local sale barn cafe or coffeeshop, or online social media,
there are so many of theseissues in the beef industry,
especially when they relate tomarketing and price that we all

(29:07):
try to make really simple.
You know, the reason, this isthe reason that cattle are
higher in Nebraska than they arein Kansas.
Or this is the reason why we sawa dip in feeders two weeks ago,
or whatever the case may be,when in actuality it's probably
a hundred different reasons andit's very nuanced and a lot of

(29:28):
'em we may, we may not knowuntil after they've already
happened.
And a changing structure, achanging age of the producer and
their willingness to keep backheifers and calve in February in
the Northern plains and allthese different things go into
this.
And quite often we miss that inthe quick soundbite, trying to

(29:50):
play the blame game.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (29:52):
Oh, that's true, Matt.
yeah, and you don't ever know.
in, In my career, kinda as amarket analyst and a, cattle
trader and cattle.
Market forecaster.
I mean, I, oh, you know, a lotof people say, well, you can't
forecast the market.
Nobody knows what it's gonna do.

(30:13):
Well, no, you can't.
But, but you can forecast trendsand trends are easier than
timing and, and, you canforecast at least tendencies.
But there's always all kinds ofnoise out there that everybody
gets caught up in.
I mean, you got, I mean, thereand, and I call all the

(30:37):
distractions and all the littlethings is, that's all noise,
there's typically always a, amain driver that powers through
everything and.
I mean, a lot, a lot of timesyou gotta stay focused on what

(30:57):
that main driver is to, to knowwhere the trend is and where
you're going and, and whatyou're doing.
But, you know, I, I just like,I, say the driver in the market,
today's demand, and that's beenthe driver here, and supplies
may become the driver for thenext months as demand may take a

(31:22):
back seat supplies will go tothe forefront.
But, um, you've also gotta lookat the, try to try to weed out
all the noise and figure outwhat the real driver is in a
market.
I mean, you know, it's likethese screwworm rumors I mean,

(31:44):
they are not, they're not gonnahave a big effect if we get a
screw worm.
Another person from Guatemalaand Maryland that has Screwworm
infection, the driver is thatthe Mexican border shut down and
we've got a lot less Mexicancattle coming into the United
States, and that is gonna takeeffect.

(32:06):
You know, November, December inTexas it's already taking effect
there.
Placements were down 25% on thelast cattle on feed report.
You know, that is a driver.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (32:18):
I know you said you don't have any, um,
firsthand knowledge of theMexican beef industry and their
structure, but where do you seethose cattle going?
Are they gonna stay in Mexico?
Are they gonna be held and fedas aged cattle up here, when and

(32:39):
if the border comes open, whatare your thoughts there?
I had a guy ask me the otherday, you know, everybody thinks
these cattle just disappeared,but is that beef gonna come onto
the world market in a couplehundred days?
And if so, how are we pricingthat into the system?

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025 (32:57):
I don't know.
It's got, you know, those

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (33:02):
Cattle

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (33:03):
gotta be there.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (33:03):
air,

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (33:04):
was

matt_2_09-02-2025_1452 (33:04):
somebody

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02 (33:05):
trying to tell me the other day, well,
trucking them to

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (33:08):
was in Brazil.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (33:09):
where they're going with them.
And so

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (33:13):
That's a long haul,

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (33:14):
well, how far is

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (33:15):
is it?
That's

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (33:17):
to

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (33:17):
a lot.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (33:17):
And

matt_2_09-02-2025_14522 (33:18):
Depends on what part of Mexico

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (33:20):
Yeah, it looked like, like you could
go from here to of America

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (33:27):
Of America about.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (33:27):
times before you got to Brazil.
But, you know, I,

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (33:38):
I, I guess I,

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (33:39):
don't know.
I, I can't imagine that there'smuch packing capacity in Mexico
to take that over or else they'dbe doing, they wouldn't have
been shipping'em to the UnitedStates anyway.
And you would think at thispoint they've gotta be sitting
there, uh, you know, hangingonto'em.
I mean, we learned that COVIDyou could hang onto cattle a

(34:01):
heck of a lot longer than youever thought you could.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (34:04):
right.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025 (34:05):
I mean, there's been other times
in history where people wereforced to hang onto cattle and,
um.
I'm sure that's kinda what'sgoing on and, and non-fed
slaughter at this point in timewould probably be welcome to
Packers up here.
You know, with cow slaughterbeing down like it is.
Um, you know, they may, they maycome in and not ever go through

(34:28):
a feed yard and not really feedthe count, go into non-fed
slaughter,

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (34:33):
Hmm.
Which would take pounds off themarket, but still replace some
imported beef for, you know,cows or whatever the case may
be.
And, and as we see cow retentionor heifer retention, probably
cow retention for that matter ofcattle staying in a range type
cow herd environment, uh, asprices get higher.

(34:55):
Yeah, that's, there's gonna be aneed for that lean trim one way
or the other.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (35:02):
yeah.
I mean, I think there's a needfor it today, and I'm sure it
would be

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (35:06):
Oh, obviously, yeah.
Yeah,

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (35:08):
I, imagine.
The fight that's going on inTexas between TCFA and Texas
Southwest Cattle Raisers.
I mean, I, I commend them for,for not making it pub to public.
I haven't

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (35:24):
I haven't heard

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (35:25):
about the

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (35:26):
the fist fights that.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (35:27):
on down there, but I'm sure there's
gotta be some.
But, um, that's a, that's a

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (35:31):
That's a tough call.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (35:34):
for the Secretary of Ag to be from
Texas, that's a tough

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (35:39):
Tough call.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025 (35:40):
I commend them for slowing things
down and thinking about it andshutting the border down and to,
trying to

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (35:49):
to keep

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2 (35:50):
that

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (35:50):
that.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (35:51):
out the US I mean, I think that's
very important.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (35:55):
Oh yeah, yeah.
We've got to, and hopefully thework that they're doing on these
sterile flies and getting thatback into the levels that it was
supposed to be at already, but,uh, obviously hadn't been.
Hopefully they can get on top ofit, but yeah.
It's, you know, however manyhundred miles, they keep
reporting that a little closerand a little closer, you know,

(36:18):
anything under a thousand's tooclose.
I mean, it's, it's, um, yeah,kind of scary stuff.

squadcaster-h63b_3_09-02 (36:24):
That's why we need an electronic animal
disease traceability system inthis country so that we can
quickly identify where a suspectanimal came from and what other
animals it came in contact with.

matt_3_09-02-2025_204055 (36:38):
Yeah, it makes, it makes sense and it,
it gets a lot of negativepublicity, but that's, that's
what it comes down to andthat's, those types of things,
probably the worst being hoofand mouth disease, but those
types of things are why we needit, so we don't have to shut the
entire border or the entirecountry down.
Just find where we had theculprit and make sure nothing

(37:01):
else was in contact and roll on.

squadcaster-h63b_3_09-02-20 (37:04):
We, we need to get in the 21st
century with it.
It just, you know, the old, theold ways are not quick enough
anymore.
It takes too

matt_3_09-02-2025_204055 (37:14):
yeah.
How, how does that set with theneighbors up there?
Rich?

squadcaster-h63b_3_09-02-20 (37:18):
Oh.
Oh.
It's pretty disheartening thatwe can't even get'em to.
the EID tags instead of thebangs tag.
There's

matt_3_09-02-2025_204055 (37:29):
Yeah.

squadcaster-h63b_3_09-02-202 (37:29):
of people that wanna even fight
that, and I think they have theidea that those little tags
carry way more information thanwhat they do.
They don't understand it.
All they are is a number.

matt_3_09-02-2025_204055 (37:43):
Yeah.
Yeah, and it has become alightning rod without a doubt.

squadcaster-h63b_3_09-02- (37:48):
Yeah.
And it's too bad because it'sreally.
Um, we really need to be able toquickly move if there's
something, a disease happensthat, uh, that needs to be
stopped.

matt_3_09-02-2025_204055 (38:05):
Yep, I agreed.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (38:07):
So you said a minute ago that.
The big trend, the big driver ofthis market is demand.
What's behind that demand?
What's driving that demand, ifyou will?

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (38:20):
No, I, I think number one is more
taste and consistency than whatwe used to have, but.
You know, number two is, uh,protein is in vogue and
carbohydrates are out, you know,and, uh, it's what we, we as
ranchers always was that meatdoesn't make you fat.

(38:45):
It's the potatoes and the chipsand the cake.
And, and we knew that'cause wefeed corn to cattle

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (38:54):
Yep.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (38:54):
and to make your cattle fat, you
feed'em carbohydrates.
And, um, you know, that is,that's what's in vogue.
I mean, everything is proteinanymore.
And, and I mean, I think by, byrights, I'm glad the world's
finally seen what we knew.

(39:17):
But it's that, and, and, uh.
Oh, GP one inhibitors,

matt_2_09-02-2025_14522 (39:25):
Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (39:26):
the weight loss drugs, and, you
know, I, I think initially theythought meat was gonna take a
backseat on that, but I think,that's helped the hamburger
market quite a bit.
And, and I, I had a, I had arestaurant guy tell me, and it
was probably back in November,and he, at that point he said,

(39:46):
you know, the, the center of theplate, he said, it's not, is not
changed.
It's, it's the same price itwas.
He says, everything around, it'sgone up.
All my other costs have gone up,but my center of the plate is
the, is the cheapest thing I,you know, is cheap today still.
And I, I think, you know, someof, some of that's been a driver

(40:08):
too, but,, um, my wife's a nurseand she used to come home and
tell me, well, we had a nursesmeeting and two or three of them
even ordered steak.
And how

matt_2_09-02-2025_1452 (40:21):
Awesome.
Yeah, exactly.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (40:23):
of the nurses ordered steak the
cancer doctors ordered steak.
And, and you know, we went, wentout the other night to a
retirement party and yeah, thepeople were, fish was not the
top of the menu.
It was, it was filets and, andit was, it was protein.

(40:46):
And I think, I think, you know,the whole trend has changed.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (40:52):
My son Lyle is a sophomore at Kansas
State, and he is in anaccounting, general accounting
at the business school, not agbusiness, but the business
school class.
His semester, and I'm not surehow this topic came up, but one
day in class there was a surveyquestion of what the student's
favorite meal was, favoritefood, and he said 80% of the

(41:18):
folks that they called on orsurveyed said either a steak or
a hamburger.
As their favorite.
And these are 18 to 20-year-oldcollege kids at a university
that I would like to say itcould land grant College is
pretty conservative, but is notanymore.
Um, I mean, that would've never,I was there in 92 to 96, and I

(41:38):
promise you that that would'venever been the case in the mid
nineties.
And yet, because all the thingswe've just talked about that
it's a, a good product and b,that the health experts have
finally come around to saying,you know what, maybe we were not
only a little off but backwardson what we were suggesting for

(41:59):
the last several decades.
I mean, it's, it all plays apart.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (42:04):
Well, I Can remember when the very
first, talk of the Atkins dietcame

matt_2_09-02-2025_14522 (42:09):
mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (42:10):
I, and I, man, was that like in
2000 or

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (42:15):
It'd been.
Right.
Yeah.
Right around there.
Yeah.
'cause it was shortly before Imoved back here in oh four.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (42:21):
and it, I mean, that kind of changed
the world at the time.
I mean, that, that was a, was awhole new story that nobody had
ever really heard.
And then, and then somebody hada book come out, what if it's
all been a big fat surprise?

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (42:37):
Yeah.
Nina Teicholz.
Yep.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (42:39):
And mean, those things kind of start
to turn the, turn the tide.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (42:46):
Yeah.
Yeah.
And I mean, you've got so manyothers that are now kind of pop
culture icons that are promotinghigh protein diet and, and I
think folks are seeing it andthey're feeling the results,
they're noticing the resultsfairly quickly and yeah, it's,
uh, it's great.
let's project this trend andthis driver of demand forward

(43:10):
five years, 15 years.
Um, if we continue to see thismuch demand for beef, how do we
ever meet that demand from aindustry structure, acreage,
everything else standpoint?

(43:31):
How do we make enough steaks andfilets and grind and everything
else to satisfy the demand?

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (43:39):
That.
I mean, that's a good question,but I mean, I don't think you
gotta go out five years.
I mean, what are we gonna do intwo years?
I

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (43:46):
Well, for sure.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (43:47):
if

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (43:48):
I'm saying even if we got back to 30
million, I mean, even if we gotback to a quote unquote normal
sized cow herd, whatever thatis, we may still not be able to
meet it, which I guess is agreat problem to have, but at
the same time, any otherbusiness would say, okay.
What do we need to do to makesure that we're able to skate to

(44:09):
where the puck's going, notwhere it is today or where it
was 20 years ago?
How do we do it?

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (44:16):
Well, you know, I guess you give, you
give a cattle guy, there's a lotof people that wanted to be in
the cattle business, whetherthey were making money in it, in
it or not.
And

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (44:28):
Well?

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02 (44:28):
cattle guy a little bit of incentive
and better, better stand outtathe way.
But you know.
Let's say if this, when thismarket holds for another year
and people get a little beliefin it, um, you know, there's a
lot of things that are gonnachange and, you know, can cattle

(44:51):
buy some acres back from somecrop ground?
And, they maybe don't have tobuy very many acres.
They just need to buy some acreswhere you can calve some cows
and, and, and a place to keep'em.
Um, but I mean, our land pricesare gonna pasture land prices

(45:14):
are going to, in my mind, get alot higher pretty quickly, and.
There's just a lot.
I don't know, I don't know if Ican, I can't wrap my head around
what all's gonna change with theinfusion of cash it's getting
put into this industry.
But, but the other thing I wasthought some about today, I

(45:37):
mean, it's not just gonna bepeople within the industry.
They're gonna put money into it.
It's gonna be people coming fromoutside the industry want to get
into it.
I mean, it's just like when thePackers were making so much
money.
Look what the people that wantedto get in the packing business.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (45:54):
Right.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (45:54):
And I can't imagine, all the people
that's gonna want to get in thelivestock business as this
market stays at these kindalevels and.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (46:05):
Well, and especially as you see, three
and a half,$4 corn.
Eight,$9 beans.
And I mean there's, there aregoing to be some farmers who I
think probably tore out fences amere 10 or 15 years ago who may
be putting something back up.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (46:24):
you know, we can do, I mean, we can
do that.
I mean, they can crops and, andyou don't have to plant it back
to grass.
You can plant to hover, covercrops and forage and, and use
electric fence and use some kindof temporary fencing.
And, and, you know, people arevery resourceful.

(46:45):
And I, I mean, I, I think thething that's holding us back the
most right here is almost thateverybody says,

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (46:52):
Says, oh.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2 (46:53):
into that trap in 20 14 15, and I'm
not falling into it again.
And I'm not going to increasenumbers here, but, um, there's
some people that are seeing,seeing what's coming down the
line and they're seeing thatthey need to get outta the
stocker business and into thecow calf.
And I mean those, the, there's,they're sure some of that taking

(47:17):
place.
And I think what's interestingis they're, they're doing it
from a value-based standpointtoo.
I mean, they, they're not buyingmy poorest bulls.
They, they wanna buy the goodones and they wanna

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (47:33):
Yep.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (47:34):
cows.
And, and I mean, we saw that.
13, 14, uh, with the

matt_2_09-02-2025_ (47:40):
liquidation.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (47:41):
and Oklahoma and how much better the
percent choice has gotten andthe percent prime.
And I think a lot of that'schanging cow herd in that last
rebuild.
And I think that'll probablyhappen again here too.
we could get a, get another jumpin some prime and choice, but I

(48:04):
think that's good.
I think, I think it's proventhat that increases demand and
I, I think that's good.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (48:12):
yeah, there's, there's no doubt that,
um, the new entrance into thebeef industry have.
Have studied their lesson andthey, you know, you mentioned
how many got burnt from 14 into15.
I Think part of that is that wehadn't seen a significant cattle
cycle in 20 or 30 years leadingup to that, what we saw in 14.

(48:36):
And, and there were a lot ofyoung folks younger than me that
had never, they didn't remember19 95, 6, and they dove in and
thought it, would be that wayforever.
And, and, um, now everybodyremembers it 10 years later.
And so yeah, there's, there's alot more hesitation.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (48:53):
Yeah.
And interest rates aredifferent.
And

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (48:55):
Oh yeah, that's a big one.
Huge.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025 (48:57):
I was just looking, you know, risk
management has been a bigbuzzword again here, and I mean
it as it always should be.
But, guess thing

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (49:09):
thing that I kind

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (49:10):
out was that, that in our home

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (49:14):
raised cattle.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2 (49:16):
that what we could do as far as
building grid premium into thosecattle.
me that was a risk managementtool on them.

matt_2_09-02-2025_14522 (49:25):
Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (49:26):
Um, because you, you could usually
get a enough over the commoditymarket, that I think in probably
the 25 years that we've kind ofsold cattle on a grid that maybe
there's been two years wherethose cattle have ever lost
money just on a cash to cashbusiness, cash to cash basis.

(49:50):
And, people think, well, riskmanagement is just in the
futures market.
But I think there's a lot ofother things that go into
management than just the futuresmarket.
But they're, you know, it'svery, they're both very
important.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (50:06):
That, that genetic hedge, as it has
been called, I think has becomealmost as important for folks
risk management as, as what the,the market hedge would be.
I mean, it just allows you, likeyou said, to do so many
different things and bufferagainst the market downturn.

(50:27):
And, and you could even say onthe cow side of things that you
can build that genetic hedge inthere too by, you know, buying
cattle that are raised in asimilar environment and all
these different things, but likesaid on a terminal side, allow
you to capture those value-basedpremiums.
So switching gears, or I guesskind of going back to that

(50:48):
competition for those acres,whether it be cattle or crops or
whatever else might be on there.
There's been a discussion thelast year or so within the
industry of trying to getgovernment, I hate to say
subsidies, but let's just say,intervention into things like
the crop insurance program andthe LRP program on more of a

(51:13):
even keel so that young beefproducers can have the same
opportunities that young cropproducers may in terms of
assuring a profit or assuring apayment back on loans and things
like that.
Thoughts on that?
I, I have mine, but, where doyou see that going?
And as an industry, what do weneed to be ready for as we talk

(51:36):
about comparing how Uncle Sam isinvolved or isn't involved in
the different agriculturecommodities?

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (51:43):
Uh, I guess my, my fear on that to
some extent, and I don't haveanything really to base it on
other than maybe my ownthoughts, is the government is
somewhat setting, up to getfrom, some price supports.

(52:09):
I mean, they, You know, it wasjust, it's just like the CRP
program.
I mean, people thought, oh, theydid the CRP because we, we
wanted to improve conservationand we wanted to help pheasant
numbers and we wanted to helpthis.
And no, it wasn't, CRP wasn'tabout that at all.
CRP was about, they were tiredof paying storage on grain and

(52:30):
it was cheaper to put the, takethe ground out of production and
to pay grain storage.
You know, almost think, uh,these insurance programs are
gonna be cheaper than payingdrought deficiencies and, I
don't know, blizzard losses andwhatever that, at some point, if

(52:52):
we get into a disaster, Gary'sgonna say, well, hey, we, we put
it out there that you could buyprice insurance on your calves
and you could buy rainfallinsurance and.
have been taking advantage ofthat instead of waiting for
another, another governmentprogram handout.
And, maybe that doesn't answeryour question, but that's
somewhat to me where I see that,I see these programs going.

(53:16):
I, I think it's a way forgovernment to get their hands
out of it to some extent.
know,

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (53:21):
Know.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (53:22):
Way a young people are gonna get
involved in the industry is ifthe old people give'em a chance.

matt_2_09-02-2025_14522 (53:27):
Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025 (53:28):
I kind of think, I mean, they've,
they're gonna have to help'emalong some, and they're gonna
have to, know, sell'em some landthat not housing development
prices and some people getstarted because it's gonna be
really tough if the market holdsfor another year or two.

(53:50):
I don't know.
I, I don't think it's, it couldbe government's involvement, but
I don't think it has to be.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (54:00):
I, I mean I'm gonna show my true
colors.
I don't think it has to be, infact, I think we'd be better off
long term if it wasn't, I mean,I don't know.
'cause we don't farm much ofany, but I was told that in this
most recent big beautiful billthat they've increased the
government portion of thepremiums for crop insurance, at

(54:23):
least in some regions.
And I think Kansas may be one ofthem, higher than it used to be.
And I think that's been one ofthe rubs with some of these
livestock folks that say, okay,a kid can go get.
A loan for a combine and a cashlease, a bunch of acreage
because Uncle Sam has made cropinsurance enough of a guarantee

(54:45):
and subsidized it at a levelhigh enough that that can be
guaranteed.
And a set of bred heifers usingan LRP on an unborn calf isn't
as good.
Well, they're wanting to movethe, the, the government's
portion of that LRP premium up,and I'm going, why not move the

(55:06):
crop insurance down?
Uh, but I guess I shouldn't beasking this of a commodity
trader, but, uh,

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (55:12):
Oh, I dunno.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (55:14):
but I, I think we saw, we talked about
ripping fences out and turning,you know, grass or forage crops
into beans and then corn a dozenyears ago in this part of the
world, those acres should havenever been converted from.
Fescue or whatever they wereinto farm ground and they
probably never would've been,had it not been for a guaranteed

(55:38):
payment through crop insuranceand from, I mean, you all are a
Leopold conservation winner.
Your family is, I mean, we endup making in opinion, bad
decisions for the environmentand for our acres that we
steward when we are guaranteedby Uncle Sam that we're gonna

(55:59):
make a payment off of it.
We do things that that soilshouldn't be asked to do.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (56:05):
Oh yeah.
There's no doubt about that.
Western South Dakota and WesternKansas.
You can see it,

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (56:12):
Oh yeah.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (56:14):
all of that.
But, um, you know, I don't knowmarket, sometimes I kind of
think, well, the market willtake care of that.
I don't need to worry aboutwho's gonna take care of it.
I just need to figure out whatthe trend is and how to get in
front of it,

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (56:30):
Yep.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (56:31):
you know?
Um, and, and you, we talk about,well, why is the band so good?
Well,'cause people like it.
Well, we don't have to have beefto sustain ourselves.
We sure wanna have steak.
But, we could live on withoutit.

(56:51):
mean, you could.
You wouldn't enjoy life, but youcould live without it.
Um, but where I was going thereis, uh, I don't think we want to
get the government to worryabout how much guaranteed beef
supplies we have.
I, I think we just, I think wewanna still our destiny there on

(57:16):
how many cattle we wanna raiseand how many we can do
efficiently.
And, um, cattle market's alwaysbeen a dynamic enough market
that it, it rights itself prettyquickly.
And uh, I would assume that'llbe the case at this point too.
But it, it's gonna buy someacres.

(57:38):
I mean, like I said, it's gonna,you got cover crops and you've
got things like that, that, thatwe're gonna, we're gonna take
some acres out of, you know,shouldn't be in corn or beans,
and we're gonna take it back tograzing.
And, the tight rope that, thatwe don't

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (58:00):
Don't want

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (58:01):
is, we

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (58:01):
walk, don't want.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (58:03):
get too tight and close down a bunch
of packing plants and then haveto be, have to be back in that
game again to where we don'thave enough kill capacity to
kill as many cows as we have.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (58:16):
And, and I think that is one of the
things that, um.
Bothers me the most when westart talking about some of
these legislations that say whocan or can't own cattle and
where cattle can or can't flowfrom and, and all of these
different things.
We've built an infrastructurethat kind of works pretty well

(58:39):
and it's, it, it allows for someebbs and flows because of
drought and because of someblack swans like COVID and
things like that.
And yeah, maybe rough and tumblefor a few months, but then we
kind of find that equilibriumand man, we ratchet this thing
back and look at long termhaving 25 million cows instead

(59:01):
of 30 some.
Even if we feed those things to1650 or 1750.
Um, yeah, we, we end up.
Shutting down someinfrastructure like we did what,
15, 18 years ago?
And then we do have the leverageshift in the wrong way from a
producer standpoint.
I, I think that's one of thethings that, you know, you just

(59:23):
said how you get in front ofthat trend.
Man, as individual producers,it's tough.
It, it's tough to see what'scoming.
And again, skate to where thatpuck's going, not where it is
now.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (59:35):
Oh, that's why you need to listen to
podcasts and read as, I mean,there is so much more
information out there than therewas 30, 40 years ago.
I mean, there is such availableinformation and good
information.
I mean, there's a lot of thingsthat, uh, we had to learn, just

(59:58):
by

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (59:59):
trial and error, right.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (01:00:00):
and mostly error.
But

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:00:03):
Said, always the best, the most
memorable lessons.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (01:00:06):
well, I guess it teaches you when you
get hit against the head with atwo by four.
It makes, makes a little

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:00:13):
Better impression?

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2 (01:00:14):
But,

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:00:15):
Yeah.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025 (01:00:16):
I guess I think you gotta believe
in the res resiliency of theindustry and the resiliency of
the people in it and, and theresiliency of people in
agriculture to, uh, believethat, you know, we're gonna,
we're gonna get back intoproduction and we're going to

(01:00:36):
get some wet years and we'regonna increase numbers, and
maybe we don't want to increase'em as fast as we did last time.
And

matt_2_09-02-2025_14522 (01:00:45):
Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (01:00:45):
rates take care of that a little bit
and some

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:00:47):
True.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2 (01:00:47):
But, um, there's enough people
watching and, and you arethrowing a huge, uh, financial
incentive out there in front

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:00:57):
Oh my

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2 (01:01:00):
Boy,

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:01:00):
boy.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (01:01:01):
we need every one of

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:01:02):
One of those

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (01:01:03):
And I

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:01:03):
I hear

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (01:01:04):
about it, boy,

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:01:06):
boy hard.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (01:01:06):
to lose a$2,500 calf.
I mean,

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:01:09):
Yeah, yeah.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-0 (01:01:11):
there's a

matt_2_09-02-2025_14522 (01:01:11):
Private city,

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (01:01:12):
to do some things out there.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:01:14):
right?
Yeah.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2 (01:01:15):
that

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:01:16):
that was my biggest

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (01:01:17):
uh, tool

matt_2_09-02-2025_14522 (01:01:19):
selling bull city.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2 (01:01:20):
was, know, this is no time to be a
cheap skate in the cattleindustry.
I mean, you can

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:01:27):
Go out,

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (01:01:27):
and

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:01:28):
spend a little money.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (01:01:29):
and get a little better, pregnancy
rate conception and, and dothings, uh, don't do things on
the cheap, do things on tryingto improve your production.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:01:41):
Yeah, there's, there's never been a
time that I've seen when youknow, an ounce of prevention is
worth a pound, a cure.
I mean, you know, whether,whether it's genetics or
nutrition or animal health orwhatever else, I mean, you know,
you, you can't be just nutsoabout it.
But, that extra few pounds, thatextra percentage of calf, crop,

(01:02:03):
weaned per cow exposed, allthese different things, my
goodness, the ROI on that typeof stuff today.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (01:02:11):
Yeah.

matt_2_09-02-2025_1 (01:02:12):
incredible.
It's incredible.
Well, it's an exciting time andum, like you have said many a
time, I mean, trying to.
Uh, find out what those trendsare is a lot more fun when you
see those trends going up and tothe right, or those graphs going
up into the right.
And we all know that it'll breakat some point, but, um, you

(01:02:34):
know, information like you'veshared here and, and just
anybody that wants to learn alittle bit more about you and
your family, um, go to BlairBrothers Angus website and stuff
on social and I mean, there'syour, your family's history and
the way you've worked in thenext generation and the changes

(01:02:56):
you all have made and thediversity that you've got in
your outlook.
It's, it's impressive and it'sbeen fun to watch from the
sidelines and we appreciate yousharing a little bit of that
secret sauce on here.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (01:03:08):
Well, and I think, you know, a key to
a lot of it has just been, youknow, watching markets and
playing trends and,.
Seeing where, you know, trystudying history and studying
but marketing's and, and bymarketing I mean just, just

(01:03:29):
whatever it takes to sell yourproduct.
And, and I mean, I'm not a goodadvertiser.
I'm not, I'm not good at that.
But, I do watch the cattlemarkets daily and, and project
that and get involved in it.
And, and I think just watchingthe futures market has done us a
well of a benefit in cashmarketing, you know, and, and

(01:03:56):
knowing when to retain heifersand build cow numbers and, and.
Doing that, I mean, to getprepared for these kinda
markets.
I mean, it was like my brotherwas telling the accountant the
other day, we haven't sold anycows for three years and to
thinking, yeah, how's, how comewe got quite a few around?

(01:04:17):
We haven't sold any.
Well, I'm about two years too

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:04:21):
Too quick.
And so

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (01:04:24):
we had to hang on to them a little
bit longer to get there thistime.
It's kind of fun to have himnow.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:04:30):
no doubt about it.
You, you saw that trend comingand you stayed ahead of it.
I guess, Are you selling yet orare you waiting another two
years?
If they'll last?

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (01:04:39):
Yeah, it's kind.
It's like my son says I'm gonnado just what my daddy taught me.
He said, I write it all the wayup and I write it all the way
back down.
But no,

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:04:50):
No,

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (01:04:51):
I, I mean,

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:04:51):
I mean, you gotta sell some

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (01:04:52):
stuff on this, on this market, there's
no doubt about it.
But, seems like you, everybodyworried about how low it's gonna
get and I think first off, wegotta

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:05:06):
Find out how high

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (01:05:07):
gonna get?

matt_2_09-02-2025_14522 (01:05:08):
because

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (01:05:09):
where you kind of can figure out then
where the low is.
But, it's a great ride, but it'sa scary ride because it, I was
just thinking today about, youknow, mad Cow was such a
devastating event and you lookback and, and we broke the
February futures about$25 afterMad Cow.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:05:30):
yeah.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-202 (01:05:31):
We have had like three$16 breaks
and about four or five$10 breaksthis year in the

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:05:41):
Hmm.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09- (01:05:41):
futures.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:05:42):
Yeah.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (01:05:43):
just, is, is pretty scary.
But it's, I always remember, um,Bob Peterson, I think was, IBP
said, you know, volatility isopportunity.
And I've always tried to takethat to heart that, um,
volatility is a good thing, but,but you just gotta respect it

(01:06:07):
and try to play it.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:06:11):
And it's so difficult when we are
clouded by our emotions or ourfear of the unknown or whatever
the case may be, to see thoseopportunities and actually
figure out, okay, good, bad, orindifferent, what can I do to
either limit my risk orcapitalize on this opportunity,

(01:06:33):
sell something, buy something,whatever the case may be.
And I think cattlemen, meincluded, are probably as guilty
as anybody of just grimacing andwanting to blame something on
somebody instead of saying, Hey,I could price something off of
this market, or I could buysomething off of this market, or
whatever the case may be in thatopportunity, use that

(01:06:55):
opportunity.
And you know, the fact that youhave mentioned in a favorable
light, the futures in theChicago Mercantile and Chicago
Board of Trade and a packer andvalue-based marketing and you
know, time with cattle fax andall these different things, I

(01:07:16):
think proves to me how we ascattlemen can just as your
former coworker, Randy Blachsays that almost every
opportunity stay plugged in andbe paying attention to what's
going on around us, and not justfearful of some other segment or
some other sector or some otherperson that we were told is the

(01:07:37):
enemy.
And instead go, Hey, what is itthey need?
And how do I provide it?
And how do I get paid to do it?
And, and sometimes that meansworking with somebody besides
just the same old, same old thatwe had been.
But uh, yeah, we've, we've gotto watch history, learn about
the future, and figure out howto deal with the present.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (01:08:00):
No, I agree with that and think
that's right.
And the other thing along withthat is you you can't ever let
'em get you in a corner wheresomebody else is making the
decisions for you.
And, and there was a joke, afellow commodity guy said, said,

(01:08:20):
uh, I don't know, one day themarket was tough and this, were
all feeling sad, and this guywalked in the door and old
cattle, old cattleman said,said, what's the market doing
today?
And they told him, and he goes,well, at least they aren't
making you sell'em cheap.
And I about that a lot of times,getting into something.

(01:08:42):
At least they're not making mesell'em cheap.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:08:45):
That's the irony of, of so many of
these discussions that we havein our industry.
Whether it be a discussionaround, Captive supply or
value-based marketing oragreements with this or that
segment up or down the chainfrom you...
a lot of times people say, well,you're selling out, you're
selling out.
You're, you're just doing it forsomebody else.

(01:09:10):
You're gonna be just like thehog industry.
And my response is, this may beour only ticket.
Figuring out these ways toproduce what it is that they
want, maybe sometimes having todo it on a contractual basis of
some kind may be the only waythat we keep the packer from
owning everybody or everythinglike the hogs.

(01:09:31):
Um, now, I don't know with landprices and everything else that
that's ever gonna occur anyway,but, uh, yeah, a little, vision
outside of our own pastures andour own fence lines and property
boundaries is probably not a badthing sometimes.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (01:09:46):
Matt, I'll tell you one thing in the,
in this north country that, uh,you know, people are always
scared.
Oh, all the big corporations aregonna own the cows.
And that, and, and I'll tell youwhen, when you get into a
blizzard situation or you gettough weather, whatever.
that take the big losses arethe, are the big absentee

(01:10:09):
landowners and, and that's just,you can't pay somebody enough to
go work that hard when it needsto be.
And I don't ever see that changein, I mean, I, I think you're
gonna, you're gonna continue tohave the owners there taking
care of their livestock becausethey're the only guys that will

(01:10:31):
work hard enough to get thatdone.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:10:33):
That's blessing and a curse of these
family ranches.
But, uh, yeah, that's the truth.
So, well, rich, thanks a bunchfor being on here today and, uh,
appreciate your insight and yourtime and, um, keep in touch and
keep up the good work.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (01:10:49):
Well, thanks Matt.
Thanks for the opportunity.
I didn't know if I'd haveanything to educate you or your
listeners about, but I hopefullyhad one or two comments that
maybe they could take and use,and that's the way we all learn,
is we all learn from each otherand we all learn by taking
somebody

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:11:08):
Else?

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-20 (01:11:09):
and running with them at times.

matt_2_09-02-2025_145227 (01:11:11):
No doubt.
Well, I'd say there's been a lotmore than just one or two, so
thanks a bunch, rich.

squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02- (01:11:15):
Okay.
Thanks for tuning in toPractically Ranching, brought to
you by Dalebanks Angus.
If you like the show, share itwith someone else.
Give us a five star review andcomment so we can keep cranking
'em out.
You know, rich just told me thata person ought to be selling
into this market, so I'm takinghim at his word.
We have a nice set of 20registered fall yearling heifers

(01:11:38):
that'll be ready to breed inlate November, December.
Plus, for the first time inyears, we'll sell a very elite
group of six registered heifersafter the bulls in our annual
production sale.
These are gonna be tough to partwith, but they're gonna offer
some incredible geneticopportunities to their new

(01:11:58):
buyers.
And of course, we'll be selling150 yearling and coming
2-year-old bulls in our annualsale.
So put it on your calendarSaturday, November 22nd, 2025,
here at the Ranch Northwest ofEureka, Kansas.
If you'd like to be added to ourmailing list, uh, send us your
name.

(01:12:18):
And mailing address.
We'll get you a newsletter inthe mail and the catalog in late
October, early November, so Godbless you all.
We'll talk again soon.