The PredictIt Podcast

Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan's Democratic Senate primary — but almost nobody expected it to be this close. Traders had him at 98 cents for most of election night, and anyone holding Haley Stevens at a penny or two watched her spike to 20 cents when the Wayne County numbers finally landed at 4am. Jacob and Garth break down what that near-miss teaches about certainty, why the cheap contracts are where the real money lives, and h...

The DSA co-chair went on Fox News Sunday and confirmed the whole platform in a lightning round — abolish the Senate, ICE, prisons, the borders. Jacob and Garth break down why Republicans couldn't have scripted it better, and why the socialist wave's biggest threat might be its own momentum: El-Sayed is cruising toward Tuesday's Michigan primary at 80 cents, but the same polling shows him down 10 to Mike Rogers in a hypothetic...

An AI-generated attack ad against James Fishback aired during the World Cup final and it's so absurd we watched it three times! Jacob and Garth break down why AI ads are about to be everywhere in 2028, who's actually behind this one, and whether the "$10 million ad buy" claim passes the smell test. (Actual ad here: https://x.com/TeamFishback/status/2078957886403670411/video/1)

Then the real news: Lindsey Graham's sister, Darline Gra...

Two weeks ago Abdul El-Sayed was trading at 93 cents to win Michigan's Democratic Senate primary. He's now at 63. Jacob and Garth break down what changed: McMorrow's exit turned it into a clean head-to-head, a fresh Tavern Research poll has Stevens up a point (a statistical tie), and the outside money keeps pouring in. Is the progressive wave that swept New York and Colorado finally hitting resistance, or do the August 4 demographi...

The Senate map just got scrambled in a single week. Graham Platner's Maine campaign implodes after a sexual assault allegation, and nearly every Democrat who backed him is now calling for him to step aside before the July 13 deadline. Jacob and Garth break down who replaces him (Troy Jackson? Janet Mills?) and whether Susan Collins is now the safest incumbent on the board.

Then: Michigan tightens dramatically after McMorrow drops ou...

It's a full Senate polling roundup — every race that matters, poll by poll, checked against where PredictIt traders actually have the money.

Texas is a dead heat: Paxton and Talarico tied 47-47 in the NYT/Siena poll, with real signs of Paxton weakness under the surface. Maine tells a different story — Collins holds a steady edge while Platner's campaign gets buried under a staggering outside-money gap ($4.3M vs $440K in ...

Mamdani went 3-for-3 last night — sweeping all three New York City congressional primaries and ousting two incumbents, including Hakeem Jeffries-backed Adriano Espaillat in NY-13. Brad Lander flattened Dan Goldman in NY-10. Claire Valdez dominated Antonio Reynoso in NY-7. The left now has a kingmaker. But the real result nobody is covering: Cait Conley in NY-17 — the West Point grad, former NSC counterterrorism director...

For the first time since Venezuela, Republicans have real momentum — and it came from three places at once: an Iran deal signed in Geneva, gas prices falling week over week, and UFC 250 entering through the Oval Office. Democrats are still at 71¢ to take the House, but the environment is tightening.

In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover:

00:00 — Knicks win, Trump's off the hook? T...

Graham Platner won the Maine Democratic primary last night with 77% of the vote — Is the Market Overreacting to the Platner Scandal? We broke down the thesis weeks ago: scandals with diminishing returns, outsider energy in a fighter's environment, and a Democratic electorate ready to act like toddlers when told who not to vote for. Democrats are now at 59¢ to beat Susan Collins in November.

In this episode of The PredictIt Pod...

An astrologer's archetypal forecast for 2026... without making a single prediction. Dr. Laurence Hillman returns for Part 2 with his most provocative takes: AI acceleration, alien disclosure, the Leo-Aquarius tension defining our era, and why "expect the unexpected" isn't a joke right now:

00:00 — How archetypes shape entire electorates: post-war America vs. now

06:00 — The three archetypes America has lost: nurture, real...

Can astrology predict political outcomes — or is it something else entirely? Dr. Laurence Hillman, one of the world's leading archetypal astrologers, argues it's neither prediction nor superstition. It's pattern recognition for time itself.

In Part 1, Jacob Studwell talks with Dr. Hillman about:

• 00:00 Introduction to Archetypal Astrology
• 08:56 Evolution of Archetypal Astrology
• 17:08 Understanding Archetypes in Public Figures
• ...

We called Kevin Warsh at 54 votes. It came in 54-45 — the closest Fed chair confirmation in modern history. The contract was trading at 3¢ the day before. If you're not listening, you're leaving money on the table.

In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell (reporting live from Peru) and Garth Juckem cover:

00:00 — PredictIt Pod dispatches from Peru: Lima, Paracas, bird islands

03:30 — Warsh confirmed 5...

The Virginia Supreme Court just struck down the voter-approved redistricting referendum in a 4-3 ruling — blocking a map that would have flipped four House seats. Democrats have fallen from 85¢ to 70¢ to take the House, and traders are repricing in real time.

In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover:

00:00 — Virginia Supreme Court kills the redistricting referendum: what it means

06:0...

The Supreme Court's Callais decision just reshaped the path to a 2026 House majority. Democrats fell from 87¢ to 79¢ on PredictIt — but the underlying fundamentals (Trump approval, generic ballot, cost-of-living concerns) suggest traders may be overcorrecting.

In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover:

SCOTUS Callais decision: cracking vs. packing and what's about to change

Democrats at 79¢ ...

PredictIt's $3,500 individual position cap is its single biggest differentiator and the recent Polymarket insider trading charge, bouts of political violence, and questions over what place prediction markets place in society proves why caps matter for the integrity of the market.

In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover:

White House Correspondents Dinner attempted attack: condemning all politica...

Virginia's April 21 redistricting referendum could flip up to 4 House seats and reshape the 2026 midterms. We break down where PredictIthave it priced and whether the data should scare traders holding Yes at 85 cents.

In this episode of PredictIt Official, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover:

00:00 — The national popular vote compact hits 222 electoral votes

04:30 — Senate 2026 market vs. S&P 500: why traders are pri...

Legendary pollster John Zogby joins Jacob to break down his latest generic ballot showing the two parties at a dead heat — directly contradicting polls giving Democrats a clear 2026 advantage. They dig into Trump's approval, public support for the Iran conflict, and what independent voters are thinking ahead of 2026.

Plus: John plays PredictIt's Buy, Sell, Hold weighing in on Pete Buttigieg, Cory Booker, AOC's Senate vs. Presi...