Episode 392 - Top 200 Prospect ADP for 2025

Prospect One is BACK!


The P1ADP's are in the books, and it's time to breakdown the top 200 Prospect ADP.


Episode brought to you by SidsGraphs. In-person autos from the games biggest prospects as www.sidsgraphs.com

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
In this league podcast that work present Prospect one. So
Fantasy Prospect Podcast Prospect What with your host Chris Wells.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
This is the Fantasy Baseball Prospect podcast. It is Prospect one.
Hello friends, and welcome back to the show that disappeared,
floated away into the ethers. No, it is back. I
am back and glad to talk about prospects with you
here today. I don't even need to get into all

(00:34):
this stuff. Thank you for all that are hanging around
after another hiatus really in the last six months that
was needed in much many different directions, one of which
being like uber sick, like crazy sick, how I got
but also just kind of reorganizing everything. And what better
way to return back to action than to present to

(00:56):
you a breakdown of the twenty twenty five P one eightyps.
Oh yes, while things were gone in a way, we
were able over on the itl Patreon to get the
P one eightyps done. They are mock drafts. We do
fifteen rounds, twelve teams, multiple leagues, industry and with some

(01:18):
of you incredible people people on the Patreon, we conduct
these drafts and then we take the data we you know,
the Royal We really It is my great friend Jesse
Severe from Dynasty Sports Life, who's amazing. Jesse constructs a
lot of this stuff for me and we get some
incredible data. We get an ADP based off of all

(01:39):
of these. Of course it's not like a you know,
perfect science or anything like that, but it is based
off of all of these drafts with just really dynasty
prospect fantasy minded people that are putting this together. We
get to see breakdowns of each league. We get to
see breakdowns of the highs the lows of each player,
so you can see the variants, and we get to see,

(01:59):
like we're the end industry people, how many guys did
an end just you know, did quote industry people take?
However it is, we get lots of really good data
that you end up getting to do whatever you want
with it. You know, I've talked about this for years.
I've been doing this. This I, I guess is like
the fourth year I think of doing these. Next year

(02:20):
will be year five. Try to do a couple of
years so we can like really span the data out.
This is a really fresh one because we had a
mix up to not get kind of a later season one.
So this is like boom fresh. We're not going to
compare it to anything until we do the next one.
But whatever it is, if it's a draft bas list,
if it's a value list, if it's a market list,

(02:42):
whatever that is. You know, this comes in a little
late to like really push for dynasty drafts. A lot
of you guys would be done, so probably going to
be a little bit more on the value market. But
again it's whether you take this to understand the value
of your prospects and your league's prospects, that's a really
good use case. Or you know, like James Anderson, I

(03:02):
always use him as kind of like a test case.
He's always said he loves to see these to understand
where the public market is, and that can create advantages
and disadvantages for you. If you really love somebody in
the market is low, or if you're just not really
into somebody in the market is super high. The buy
and sell of prospects, and you know, there's some great
people in here, maybe like you, maybe you don't care

(03:24):
what I have to say, you know, maybe you really care,
like what Jeff Ponce is doing or James or something
like that. You can kind of pick and choose and
kind of look at some of that. There's just a
lot of cool stuff out of it that is now
available on the IL patreon. So amongst all the other
things as well, I just updated my Top five hundred Prospects.

(03:44):
That is there, Top four hundred Dynasty, the last update
of the first year player class for you know whatever reason.
If you guys are still kind of doing that, I
still want to show the dictation, but the next update
that'll be gone. And then I've got the P one
ADP data available for you to take a look at.
So there's a full update. It is available on the itlpatreon.
In This League dot com, you can go over there,

(04:06):
sign up, you can get access to that. You could
also get into the group me rooms, the prospect one room.
It's like my favorite room. It's just just cool people,
great people talking prospects all the time, Fantasy trades, advice.
You can have access to me and more so, if
you want to do that, I deeply appreciate it because
you are supporting it all in this League dot com

(04:26):
and the support. While I was out for a little bit,
I was around. I was still here, you know, getting
shows on Fantasy Pros and in the Group me rooms
and working on the stuff. It just the prospect one
shows weren't. I wasn't able to get them going, but
luckily this is a great way to get it back.
Next week, I'll tell you at the end of the
episode what we're planning to do, and then we're gonna
get into end season and we're really gonna be able

(04:47):
to tackle this because prospects are still life baby, and
even into the you know, the spring, into spring training.
It's pretty fascinating the Camsmith rise over the last couple weeks.
It's definitely something I've been trying to come to terms with,
is you know, because like I remember having some of
the data during first year play, you know, like doing

(05:09):
all the first year player work, talking with lots of people,
and he always hit the ball hard, and there definitely
was like, all right, this guy's like really great in
college and he does his stuff, but there's like a
swing and miss that still has some people worried and
what's that going to look?

Speaker 1 (05:21):
Like?

Speaker 2 (05:22):
He's just maturing left and right. The same thing is
happening with Christian Moore. It's pretty crazy because I've been
thinking about how this class we looked and we were like,
not all of us, but some of us were like, oh,
you know, like I'll probably trade out of this class,
probably trade down, and blah blah blah. And it's not
great depth, but there is depth across the board. And

(05:43):
it's like the more you look at it, class is
really shaping up to be a lot better. Now is
it going to produce Ronald Acunyaz and Julio Rodriguez Is
and Corvin Carroll. I don't know, maybe not. But when
you're starting to look at the floor of this class,
Travis Zanna is obviously near the tippy top. Nick Kurtz
has looks phenomenal in spring training and everyone's getting eyes

(06:06):
on him. Jack Caglione is improving. Then you get Cam
Smith and Christian Moore, They're rising up, Chase Burns. You
get to see like stuff plus numbers, some of the
things like TJ stats, like some of the great people
that do the stuff. Models were oohing and aweing over
that Hagen Smith. All of a sudden, it's like the
first round, it's pretty great and hilariously remember like the

(06:27):
day of the draft, who is the guy that some
people had at number one? Charlie Condon and Charlie Condon
rebroke his wrist or whatever, and he's going to be
out for some time, and he's falling down. So I'm
just kind of fascinated that, you know, the class has
improved itself so well, and how many of those players
specifically are really pushing the case to be up in

(06:50):
the in the majors. And some of these great, you know,
spring training performances from Nick Kurtz, Jackaglione, Hit five hundred,
Cam Smith, and Christian Moore look like they're gonna make
the freaking roster. Jase Burns is still a ways away,
but you know, he's close and not just trying to
focus on the first year player guys that I think
is fascinating. But then you also have, you know, look
at like Bubba Chandler, Jared Jones looks like he is

(07:12):
gonna have Tommy John I'm jumping the ship. I'm jumping
the gun a little bit, not the ship, the gun,
because he's just going for a second opinion. That's never good,
that's probably not going to be great. Even more, probably
throws up the opportunity that we're going to see Bubba
Chandler sooner rather than later. Chase Dolander might be breaking
in the rotator. I go on and on about the

(07:34):
prospects logan Henderson. It's a really interesting first year player
class that I think has improved, and we've seen a
lot of that in spring training. It's a really interesting
class of prospects that a could break camp and that
are going to make some impact in season. And we
will talk about a lot of those in these p
and ADPs. And you know, luckily we did these kind
of late enough that sometimes you do these a little

(07:56):
little too early and it's like, oh, hey, a month
has happened, and all of a sudden, you know, like
I said, like the Camsmith thing, Like the cam Smith
it was in our face when we did this draft,
maybe not as prominent, but if you've done it a
month earlier, you might have seen cam Smith forty spots lower.
So you're getting like a better representation of this. So
I'm excited to do this. I think this is a
great way to kind of get back into action and

(08:18):
kind of get our get our sea legs back on
us as we are getting back into the prospect side
of everything. So once again, you know, thank you everybody
that hangs around and is here for all of this
great stuff I want to remind you is always episode
brought to you by my friend Dennis Sidler over at
sids grafs. You want to check out all the great
prospects and major leaguers. Chris Sale did the great Chris

(08:39):
Sales signing. Unfortunately, Jerry Jones might be one of those.
We'll see where that goes. He did his awesome signings
and great stuff with him. Baba Chandler though, is one
that he just did, and I think he was out
over on the East Coast doing some signings as well.
So go and check it out sidsgrafs dot com, sidsgrafs
on eBay, and you can check Sidgrass on the socials

(09:00):
for all the great stuff that he's got if you're
looking for some great great memorabilia. Also, i'll throw out
to you before we get into breaking this down, I'm
going to be doing a live stream on opening Day,
so i'll be on leading off. If you guys follow
me on that leading off I'm on. It'll be Monday
through Friday. Once the regular season starts, I'm always there,

(09:21):
and then after leading off, I'm gonna be looking to
do a four to five hour stream. I'm gonna do
live for Opening Day. So an hour or two before
Opening Day, the games kickoff our first pitch, and then
while some of them are going on, we're gonna hang out.
We're gonna talk, we're gonna look at your teams, answer

(09:42):
any questions, Prospect Dynasty, whatever it is, Redraft, and I'm
gonna be doing some raffles as well. So if you
like autograph stuff, I've got a you know, it's like,
you know, multiple people like really cheap point. We'll do fun,
we'll spin a wheel, we'll see if someone gets some
great I'm gonna probably have a a Jackson Urio signed jersey.

(10:02):
I think Bobby Witt autographed bat, might do some other
cool stuff, and that supports Prospect one when you do
that in a way to get some cool stuff over.
So whether you do those or not, you can come
and hang out in the stream as we're enjoying some
of Opening Day, and then I will be shipping off
to go to Opening Day as mister Scott Bugman is
coming into Phoenix and we have tickets to go to

(10:22):
Opening Day versus the Cubs. So unless I go and
hit up my friend Justin Steele and he says, hey,
come on down and da da da, that stream will
be happening, So make sure following me on Twitter at
is it the Welsh or if you're on the Patreon,
I'll be posting about that. I'd love to have you
probably going to be a dual YouTube and on the
Twitch to try to kind of get that going, because
what I also plan on doing is doing one to

(10:44):
two full redraft streams during the week and then i'd
like to do Prospect one on Friday and kind of
push that for Prospect one a little bit more as
we get back going. So just just kind of getting
you guys into it, you know, Q and as answering
more questions and stuff like that. That's some of the business.
That's some of the stuff. Thanks for hanging out here.
What we're going to do is we are going to

(11:06):
be breaking down some of the very interesting things that
happen in the P one ADPs. Again, this is a
multi mock prospect only draft that we take the data,
we turn it into an ADP and then I can
kind of curate some of this stuff. You can see
the entire sheet on the Patreon, but I can go
and kind of put together and I've got some cool

(11:27):
little barriers of things that we're going to talk about.
So let's take a break. When we come back, i'll
tell you how we're going to do it, what we're
going to do and the players in the P one
ADP top two hundred prospect ADPs, and we will do
it right after this, right here in Prospect one.

Speaker 1 (11:43):
Shay, I like you.

Speaker 2 (11:45):
I like you so much. I'm going to make you
my partner. All he has to do is find the
gold and I'll share it with you fifty to fifty prospect.
One of the crazy things, you know, coming back to
this too, is people heard some of the podcasts, and
I appreciate by the way everybody that would reach out,
Like I even had Jesse be like, hey, this is

(12:07):
everything good P one and miss it and I'm like, oh,
thank you, No, it's good. And I wasn't really good
at communicating on that. But on the communication front too,
I literally wasn't like speaking well. I got so sick
and I had to bear through some Fantasy Press podcasts,
but like I was losing my voice and I was
thinking about doing this because this is a this is
a very different beast of what I do with Prospect one.

(12:28):
It's me I'm sitting here talking with you non stop,
no break, and I was just thinking, like, oh, my
voice is holding up. That's nice. That feels really good,
and it feels really good talking about prospects, and it
feels really good to talk about these guys because also,
you know, in spring training here, I've missed a decent
amount of being able to go out, especially towards minor
league spring training. I will give you a little hint though,

(12:50):
I did get to I'm going to a game tomorrow.
I'm into one or two, and I've seen, you know,
lots of prospects during camp. But watching the games, I
did get to see Haesus Made, who were going to
be talking about. It was a Brewer's Dodgers camp, and
I you know, Fleepo, Felippie Daturi, Eric Batanti, some of
the Dodger guys. I didn't see Yo Hendry Vargas or

(13:11):
Emil Morales, but specifically got to see Haesus Made, And
I can tell you I was actually thoroughly impressed. He
went between playing third and short, and then I think
in the spring breakout game he played second, much bigger
than I thought he was. There's still kind of a
cross bodyiness of pro like there's still like a lot

(13:31):
of like movement. Seventeen years old, but there's like there's
still like a lot of movement going on, like in
the swing, but like from an age too level standpoint,
like he is pretty electric, really good defender, and I
was pretty fascinated to see him playing at third base
as well, because that is a potential. So I've seen
a couple of those guys. Tomorrow, I'm hoping to see
a few more. Not as many as I've I had

(13:52):
in the past, but I have been over in camps
and seeing guys like like that's just like the specific games.
But I've still been over you know, seen Jack Hagley
owned White Sox going and see Kyle t O Braid Montgomery.
I had this picture if you follow me on Twitter
and Instagram same handle where this is a really cool moment.
Bo Jackson showed up at I've never I've been White

(14:13):
Sox camp. I've been going since sixteen or fifteen. I
love the camp. I love being over there. It's you know,
it's sound as crazy as the Dodgers, and you get
closer access and stuff. And I'd never seen Bo Jackson before.
Bo Jackson rolls in and by the way, I'm with
a friend and we're looking and we're like, right, there
is Bo Jackson, Jim Tomy, and Tony LaRussa holy Hall

(14:33):
of Fame. That's just, you know, twenty feet from us,
just watching these guys, and there's some cool moments. On
the prospect side. Colson Montgomery had just been I think
like two days before, had been sent down to Triple A,
and Chris Gatz had talked about you know, oh yeah,
he kind of got set back and he's got to
figure some stuff out, and you just kind of, I

(14:54):
don't know, like putting a bow on a turd, if
you will, Like a crappy situation. He was trying to
make it seem positive. Surprisingly, Colson seemed like in relatively
good spirits. Then all of a sudden, I look over
and Bo Jackson has Colson get in the cart with him,
and they're sitting there talking for like twenty minutes, and
I'm like, man, I would love to hear what's going

(15:17):
on in that conversation. Then Braid Montgomery walks up to
where like people are and then he starts He's a
super nice kid, and he's like signing in autographs for people.
And then Josh Barfield comes over and goes, I gotta
steal him. And as soon as I saw that, I
was like, he's going to take him to Bo takes
him over to Bow, puts him in the cart and
that's a picture I put out. Dude, I mean Texas

(15:39):
A and M was retweeting it like everyone loved it,
and it was like fly on the wall. Man love
to know what Bo and him were talking about. But
then Braden came over after dude was beaming and he
was like, you know, someone said something to him and
he's like, oh, sorry, I had to sit over there,
and I was talking with a pretty cool guy and
then you know, starting poking about you know, the conversation

(15:59):
and you get he was just like beaming. He was like,
I did not expect that to happen. And that's kind
of a really you know, cool experience. But all of
that aside, like in the you know, the camps and
games I've gone, I've been able to go to. I
have seen lazarro and I've seen Braden and Kyle Teel
and you know a multitude of others been over at
the Angels and you know, get to see Christian more

(16:19):
with some BP. So I have seen plenty of guys,
but as the games have gone on, that's where I
got knocked down multiple pegs and back with it. But
those are just a few of the tales of being
out there of the Hazus mades. And hopefully I'll see
a couple of decent guys tomorrow and I will share
back on it. But we're here to talk about the
p win ADPs. So if you don't ever want to

(16:40):
be a part of the patron that's okay, or you
don't want to, you know, check that stuff out, because
I'm going to talk about some of it, not all
of it, not even an iota of it. But I
am going to break down some different categories. So I'm
gonna give you the top fifteen of what the ADP
you know, spit out. I will give you those top
fifteen guys. And there are as I'm looking at this,

(17:02):
there's one name that stands out and will every year
it happens, and funny enough, last year it was Leo Devrees.
I believe Leo Direes had a high of six, and
he's on this top ten or top fifteen, so he's
back there. Most of this is pretty chalk. There's one
very surprising name. So we're gonna do the top fifteen.

(17:24):
Then we are going to do what the first year
player came out on this. Again, it's a little late
for all of that, but I do think it's interesting
to see based on the ADP, what was the top
I'm gonna give you the top twelve. What is the
top twelve ADP? And I'm gonna tell you right now.
Here's what might be most fascinating to me. Those twelve

(17:46):
are inside the top sixty five overall prospects. I could
be misremembering, but I don't ever recall having twelve be
that highly put in on the ADP, which also again
speaks to like this class turned into something everyone was
trying to trade out of to oh there's a lot

(18:07):
of value. There was a if you drafted three months ago,
you got tons of value. You actually might have been
able to get two players inside of the top ten.
Not that there's been like too much crazy movement. I think,
like probably I mean Cam Smith and Christian Moore with
the two, I think that really jumped up. I think
those guys really jumped up to and there were instances

(18:28):
where maybe more Smith Montgomery. Maybe two of those three
were like outside of a top twelve, but you know,
for the most part, they're all still there. But we're
gonna look at what that is. Then I'm going to
give you I thought this is really interesting, the top
fifty industry most aggressive. So I've got a tab on
here and it shows each player. It'll show the drafter

(18:53):
who was the most aggressive on that of all of
the leagues, and who was the least aggressive. So we're
not going to talk about the least aggressive. That just
means like the best value. I'll give you an example.
I took Sebastian Walcott in the first round. I took
him eight. I got the best price on Walcott. I
got him at the cheapest of anybody. So the lowest
he went was eight, the highest he went was three,

(19:14):
and he went three in two leagues, so I got
the best value. So that's the best value. I want
to focus on the most aggressive, who was the most aggressive,
And I'm specifically going to pick the industry people that
took part in this. And I have got the top
fifty ADP which players had an industry person take them

(19:37):
the highest of anybody. So I think you understand what
I'm getting at. And I think there's roughly like fifteen
names here we're going to talk about. Then we are
going to look at the highest variance players. What that is.
I think I have eleven of them. These are the
guys that have the wildest, highest draft pick and lowest
draft pick. So that's the variance between them. Some of them.

(20:00):
The bottom two are crazy. They're they're wild. Had I
had a little thing, I might throw out a couple
interesting guys as well. And then the final thing. And
I've done this every single year I've done this. I've
given you this piece every single year I've done this
is the all industry prospect or prospects. What that means

(20:22):
is that is a prospect that every league was taken
by someone in the industry. Just because I'm using the
industry people doesn't mean I don't I devalue anybody else.
But I just think that you know, you guys don't
know all the awesome people that I know. You don't
all know Barry Baker, you don't all know Mummert. You
might all know Dan fun you should, But this year

(20:44):
I'm gonna be a side caveat There is only one
player in the top two hundred and eighty p one
that was taken by all Industry. Now I have a
side caveat. I have a second player because three took
him in the industry and the one person who was
not a quote industry person to me is like a

(21:07):
super industry Like they're one of the smartest people. I
love this person and I think they could should again
not to like cherry pick, but like this person should
be valued in as like an industry person. So I'm
gonna give you this little side one as well. But
there's only one player that was taken by all industry,
and he was outside the top one hundred. I'm gona

(21:28):
take you right now. Is one oh eight was his rank?
No chance, you guys get it. Take your guesses right now.
Take your guesses right now. I'm not gonna give you
a hint. Maybe I'll give you hints throughout. But there's
only one player that was all industry, and he is
a massive pop up name from last year. This isn't
you know, zyre Hope. This isn't gonna be Owen Casey

(21:51):
or Chandler Simpson. No, this is a much deeper name
that was the all industry guy. So that is what
we've got in store. I guess I could have you know,
we could just gone into it, but I wanted to
break down here are the different levels of it. Okay,
so prospect ADP, we've got two hundred names. Here, Here
is your top fifteen in a roto. This is your
first round. Roman Anthony number one. He was drafted one

(22:16):
in two leagues and two in two leagues. Only one
industry person took him. That was Beck, so obviously you
have to have that position. So he ended up being
the default number one. Number two Roki Sazaki. I was
actually surprised about that. Roki was taken one once, taken
two once, three once, and four once, so the variance

(22:40):
it was kind of all over the board. The only
industry person to take him was Matt Thompson with the
third pick, but that ended up putting him at number two.
The reason behind this is I really truly believe two
through seven is kind of a toss up for a
lot of people, even though there's one other like stray
Name that's gonna come in number three, Dylan Cruise. He

(23:00):
was taken first one time, second one time, and then
fourth and sixth. No industry people took him. Number four
Christian Campbell. Christian Campbell three, five, five and six two
industry people, Cross and Jesse Roach both took Christian Campbell.
I would have loved to have taken him. And number
five will stop there for a second is Sebastian Walcott,

(23:24):
who I took, Eddie Matt Eddie took, and then Barry
Baker and Jordan Miller, both actually really good Dynasty players took.
So he went three, three, seven and eight. So it's
a weird mixture there. So there's like we're starting. There's
like a tiny bit of variants there. I got the
best value on him. I think that's a good core.

(23:48):
The only guy missing and he just pops down. He
almost got to Number five is Jason Domingez. He's number six.
He went five, five, six, and seven the the like.
Using the decimal points, it was five point three for Walcott,
five point eight for Domingos. So it's kind of like
a one two those six. That's your core. I know

(24:09):
I value Dimingo's a little bit higher. I think they're
all interchangeable. I really don't feel steadfast, and I hopefully
I've been kind of clear about that. I don't feel like,
oh my god, it's only dimingos.

Speaker 1 (24:21):
No.

Speaker 2 (24:21):
I think that's the weird thing about all of it.
I think that like all of these guys have the movement.
I was shocked, and I don't obviously like without the pods.
I wasn't able to express this enough. I said this
in some spots, but I was shocked seeing Sebastian Walcott
in person this year. He's huge. I really believed that

(24:46):
he was always going to be like a Fernando Tatis
junior who Tatis he formed into his body, but it
never really became big. You know, like he's kind of
like lanky, kind of skinny, got some muscle and stuff
like that, but he never got big. And that was
always a question like, well, you know, how is the
bat going to progress and stuff? Walk got big, man,

(25:08):
he got huge. He was unrecognizable to some people that
I know that had been around him, and they were like,
that's not Walcott. I'm like, that's Walcott, dude. He's taller,
looks like he's six foot five. I would speculate two
twenty something like that. So just the physicality and like
the raw skill set Walcott is fascinating, but you know,

(25:28):
he's probably the rawest of all of these players. You know,
Domingaz has been able to move through a lot of stuff.
Christian Campbell body projection isn't maybe the best, but I
mean he might have the He might have the best
ceiling floor combination of all these guys. Anthony. I think
Anthony actually could have the lowest floor of all these guys,
but has a ginormous ceiling. We got to see Roki.

(25:50):
I've talked about this a lot, for better for worse,
you know, like I get to see on the back
of the YouTube and piece of p and I did
a couple live reactions. We did a couple shows today
talking about Roki, and a couple of people kind of
being like, man, listen to you guys after one game,
and I tried to be calm about it, but I
was like, I've already kind of had some concerns about Roki,

(26:12):
just little it just instead of just someon would say
glazing him and just being like, oh my god, he's
one hundred with this split, and I was just like, yeah,
the slider's not good. And we hear some stuff on
the fastball and there's injury worries, like that doesn't make
me feel great about long long term, but I don't
think he's like you have to have you have to
jump on it. That start was just a little bit

(26:36):
of a more of a confirmation, and I tempted in
some ways to be like, hey, listen, I'm not trying
to there's no victory lap and I'm not trying to
like overreact and be like, oh my god, like Rokie
sucks and all that, and it's like, well, no, just
from a redraft perspective, I'm not super interested this year whatsoever.
He didn't hold runners on he was super radic. He

(26:59):
through one splitter for a strike, Fastballs were under fifty
percent for strikes. That'll all get better long term. But
guess what, I got them high in Dynasty. So I'm
still good with that. But I'm just not like insane
about Rokie. So, like, from a prospect perspective, I guess
knowing you get like the production now, and especially if
you're in one of those leagues where you like you

(27:20):
gain the round back, that's cool. But you know, I'm
I'm taking a lot of these hitters over him. Okay,
so that's like the top six, that's your core here.
Moving to number seven, I think it is a good play.
It's Matt Shaw. The difference five point eight for Domingo's
to seven point three for Shaw, so Shaw was a
more true. Number seven, Scott White and Jeff Ponds both

(27:42):
took him if you're curious about that. Number eight gets
really interesting. And Andrew Painter. Andrew Painter, another pitcher comes
in the top ten, and the reason behind it is
our dear friend mister Nate Handy, who will talk about
when we talk about the industry once. Because they took
him four over, but you also had Tim Kannak and

(28:03):
Brett take him. The only difference though is they took
him on the wheel and in a twelve like I
kind of liked the idea of taking Painter on the wheel,
but Nate just he laid it down. He said four
for Andrew Painter, so that pushed him up. He would
have been probably, I'm looking at this he probably I
could have imagined Painter being ten and maybe Joe being eleven,

(28:24):
but Painter got pushed up because of that. That was
probably one of the bigger variants because Nate number nine
Walker Jenkins, we had James Anderson take him at ten,
so that was about relative nine ten twelve and eleven.
By the way, Nate, I don't know if I think
I said it. With Painter it was four, but then eleven, eleven,
and twelve, So that was more of the pure drafting

(28:47):
rounding out that the top ten at number ten was
Leo Devrees. And check this out, the only the two
industry guys got him. George Bissell took him, which we'll
talk about, but James also got leoti Are Leo Dallas,
Leo Leoti uh Tavarus back in way back in the day,
Leo Direes. So he was able to get Walker Jenkins

(29:07):
and Leo Direes. That might be one of the best
starts of any of these when you look at it.
He ended up being number ten Walker Jenkin. The difference
between Jenkins and Leo Divrees was like very very tiny,
all right, So that's your top ten. Taking a look
at them, Shaw, you could argue you could be in
that top six category because you know, dude's hitting five,
he's in the majors. You know that Painter, there's still

(29:29):
babying is a concern. Two young guys, Jenkins and Leo Divrees,
And I actually kind of thought Jenkins could go like
lower because there seems to be kind of a negativeness
on him. But you know, he held up there. I
got him maybe higher than some and that maybe had
affected it a tiny bit. Love the Leo one. I
think Leo's in that right spot. Now let's go to

(29:52):
the rest of the first round, and then we're going
to get the big name here in a second Jackson
Job coming in at number eleven. This was a three
industry one. And as a matter of fact, let me
look at this. I'm just gonna try to eyeball this now, Painter,
it's funny. It's the pictures Painter, and then Jackson Job.
Those of these top fifteen are the only guys that

(30:14):
were three of four drafts. An industry person took them,
so it was the pictures you had. Frank stamfule c K,
and Jeff Ponce all took Jackson Job, who ended up
with number eleven because he's high, was actually seven. That
was by the non I don't have no idea that
pre It's like the username. I don't know who this was,
but they took him seven overall, number twelve. Emmanuel Rodriguez,

(30:37):
who Tim Kannak took. He had a variance of nine, twelve, fourteen, fourteen.
I'm gonna skip thirteen for you because I'm gonna give
you the last the next two and then we'll talk
about it. Number fourteen, Max Clark. I love this one.
I love the value of Max Clark. This is one
of those where well, actually fourteen and fifteen if you're
if you're looking at this and you're like, all right,

(30:59):
who are some guys based on this that maybe I
could get some deals on. Well, if you compare it
to my personal rank, Max Clark, I have as like
a top ten guy. Maybe there's not a ton of variant.
Actually his variants check this out. His high was thirteen
as low as sixteen, so there's that's not a lot
of room. But I have him like a tier higher.
And Travis Bozana, Travis Bozana had I guess the biggest

(31:22):
variants of the top fifteen guys where he's number fifteen
on the list, but he went his high at ten
and as low as twenty four. I didn't realize that.
Chris Kleig took him the highest at ten. Scott White
also got him at fifteen, and he went a low
of twenty four. Give me, give me the Max Clark
and Travis Bazana at deals, especially Travis Bazana. If he's

(31:43):
being valued outside the top twenty prospects by somebody, that's
a bye. That's a major buy. Drum roll, you guys
know exactly who this is. Number thirteen. I can't do
a drum but little it's like the number thirteen. Of course,
now to the credit, Hazus made did not go inside

(32:06):
the top ten. He did not go at six or
five or anything like that, similar to to Leo DeVries
from the year before. But he also did not go
lower than sixteen. He went ten, thirteen, fourteen, and sixteen

(32:27):
overall in all four leagues. Chris Blessing and c K
both took him as industry. C K was the highest
at ten, but Blessing took him at thirteen. So yes,
Hazus mode is a roto top overall player. And frankly,
you know if you if you were playing in the
twelve team league, you could take him twelve. That's a

(32:48):
first rounder. So he pushed that way through. I still
think he's pretty raw. The day I saw him was
so fascinating, dude. They were like there were five agents
waiting for him out. I've never seen so many agents
on the backfields of a minor league spring training game.
They were like five and a couple like photographers, and
he was just like he was like sign and stuff,

(33:09):
go talk over here, take a picture, like, I mean,
inundated with that stuff, and he was. It was pro.
But you know, on the field, like he is still raw.
I think there are some raw stuff that are in
his game that he's going to have to adjust. But
the tools are there, and they see him on the
cheerio path, They're gonna skip rookie ball. He's not gonna
play rookie ball. He's gonna go to a and they

(33:31):
can work through whatever some of those swing things are.
And worst case, what it's going to look like is
maybe he's just hitting for really high average and stealing
bases and not just crushing homers. But he's an incredible talent.
It's a big it's it's a big push. I can't
get over it. I look at that and I go, man,
I mean, if you have a first round pick, you're
taking Hayesus made like I had a draft this year

(33:53):
where it was our first year player in it was
our it's our three sport and I got Made, and
Justice said cursed me, and I got him as like
the ninth pick a probably because like people maybe you know,
because it's like all the first year player guys and
maybe not paying attention. But like maybe also people are
not sure about the valuation. This is telling you the

(34:14):
current market valuation for Jesus Made is very, very high.
I don't even think you can say this is it,
you know, I wish you could. I don't think you
can say this is the high point. I will say,
like if you could trade Made and get like Bazana
and Clark. I know that's like thirteen, fourteen, fifteen, but
there might be a consolidation. But there's a real feel

(34:37):
that Madi might be, you know, the number one overall
player come next year, especially because if you look at
this list, just for argument's sake, here Anthony goes Suzaki,
goes Cruiz, goes Campbell, goes Demingez, goes Shaw, goes maybe Painter.
So here's what you're left with. You're left with Walcott,
You're left with Jenkins, Dvrees, Mano, Rodriguez, and Made. That's

(35:02):
your top five because Jackson Joebel, we'll go of my
top fifteen. Those are the likely top five that do
not have any graduation this year. Could he be number
one of that list? Yeah he could. I think Walcott's
probably likely to be one, but I think Made could
be two devrees three. I mean, god knows what Rodriguez

(35:22):
at this point and Jenkins and I think there's obviously
other guys that could jump up there. But like, there's
legitimate possibility and everybody put their cost into it. I
thought there would be bigger variance with him. There was not.
It was literally ten or sixteen somewhere in between there.
Bazana had ten to twenty four. There was more disagreement
on Travis Bizana than there was Jesus made. That's pretty telling.

(35:46):
So you do it with that whatever you want. You know,
if you have Jesus Made and you want to trade
him off, you can go King's Ransom and it might
get bigger. But he at the same time trying to
buy him it probably doesn't look super good. I thought
the top fifteen was fast sinating big players that did
not make the Top fifteen. You know, down the list,
you're like, you have Bobba Chandler, who's not far off

(36:06):
Besio just looking down here. We're gonna talk about a
few more. Noah Schultz is around there, some other big names,
but that top fifteen feels about right with Made just
kind of like staring at you in the face. It
was super interesting and what you could do here, and
I can throw this at you. Let's talk about the

(36:27):
first year player. So obviously a lot of your first
year players are done. If you want to understand where
the valuations are at this moment, I'll go quicker on this.
But Jesus made, if available, would have been the number
two pick based on this because number one was Roki Sazaki.
He came into two overall. I guess if he's not eligible,

(36:48):
I still think. I know we had disagreements like Cross.
I think didn't want to rank him. My argument was
he signed a minor league deal, and yeah, he's gonna
be the majors. But if he signs a minor league deal,
then I'm an to put him as a first year player.
If it's like a guy that's posting and coming over
and signing sixty million dollars. Okay, we don't need to
put Yamamoto when we did Roki. I kind of think

(37:09):
you do. So Roki was the number one Travis Bozana
number two. He was fifteen overall, but again made would
have been first, so it goes Roki Banzana. Those are
the only guys in the top twenty five. But now
you're gonna go through like twenty picks of like seven dudes.
Number three Jj Weatherholt top thirty overall player in this

(37:31):
Number four Jack cagleone. Jack has kind of popped his
way back up with that incredible spring. People getting to
see him hit for contact, all the positive stuff coming
out of the Royals and then maybe wanting to push
him up, like he really pushed himself up. I'm not
surprised about this, but man was there like ups and downs.

(37:51):
Number four surprise, but not surprised. Connor Griffin. Yeah, Connor
Griffin's incredible spring. You know, Claig talked about some of
the swing changes. We've seen him get bigger. He's had
some incredible moments in camp as a high schooler. But
people feeling really really comfortable. He is rocketed up. He
was number five among the first year player. Number six

(38:13):
is Cam Smith. Now that's where like I take Cam
Smith over Coonnor Griffin, but like I get it, but
it also like does it does surprise me a little bit.
They were next to each other. By the way, it
was thirty eight thirty seven overall. But cam Smith is
your number six, number seven. It's a pitcher. Chase Burns.
People saw that mixture of pitches and what we've been

(38:34):
talking about for a while, and Chase Burns chef's kiss
boom top forty I say one, two, three, four, five,
six seven was Burns. Number eight is Christian Moore love?
This one huge value to me and I'd really say, man,
those middle picks look really good. Number was at eight, nine, ten,

(38:54):
eleven to number nine. Hagen Smith. We're back into a picture.
I find that really interesting. And again I probably skew
some of this a little bit. Let me look at
haiggen Smith real quick. Actually, because Hagen Smith at forty eight,
I did take him, but I am happy to say
I took him the latest of anybody. I got the

(39:15):
best deal in Hagen Smith. I took him at fifty six.
He went forty six, fifty three and fifty four. And
by the way, Matt Thompson and George Bissel from Rotal
World both took him as well, so three industry people.
I got the best deal and the only reason I'm
throwing it out there is, like you remember, we were
I did multiple episodes with like James and Clegg and
Cross and we were doing like first year player stuff,

(39:38):
and I just kept not being able to help myself
with those pictures. They just kept falling. And I think
a consensus is working in there a little bit. So
I feel good about that because that's not like me
dictating the cost, because three of the four were in.
One of them was me, but I took him the latest,
but Matt Thompson and George Bissell took him and they're
not going off my ranks. And Matt took him the
highest of anybody inside the top fifty. So that's where

(40:00):
really fascinating. One at nine. One of the best deals
is Braden Smith. He is at ten, he's just outside
the top fifty. Charlie Condon falling all the way to
number eleven, and then Bryce Rayner, who put up some
nice evs in a couple of spring training games he
got comes in at number twelve. But every single player

(40:21):
is inside the top sixty five. So twelve players, twelve
of them dictating the top sixty five or so coming
from the first year player class that is, I just
don't remember that happening again, it could have. We had
incredible like what was it the twenty nineteen where it
was like Adlee and Vaughn and Witt and Dominguez, and

(40:42):
then I think it fell off. They're just like murderers
row Like if Charlie Condon became the number one guy,
you're not surprised. If Christian Moore became the number one guy,
you're not surprised if con That's what's so fascinating about it.
All of these guys could jump up. They all seem
to have like similar paths. A lot of college guys
as well. There's just an uncertainty of like, oh that

(41:03):
guy will be a no doubt, absolute freaking superstar. Could
Caglion become Joey gallow two point zero yeah, twelve years.
Could he be retiring from playing in field and going
back to pitching, Yeah, sure could happen. But like all
of these guys have like a path of being fantasy relevant,
just their superstardom is in question. So I found that

(41:24):
super interesting, especially with a high valuation of them. This
is probably my favorite one. Let's talk about the most
aggressive industry players. That were drafted. So these were the
industry people, lots of people, Chris Blessing Beck, I mean
just phenomenal people. James is in here, Jeff has got some,

(41:47):
Kanak has got one. I don't, and not every single
person is represented. I only chose the top fifty to
talk to you about. I'm not gonna do this in
the top one hundred, but these were of eighty p
the top fifty players. And then when an industry person
was the most aggressive on that player versus anybody, and

(42:07):
there is roughly I just got to kind of eyeball
this because I didn't count. It looks like about fifteen players,
fifteen of the top fifty have a hyper aggressive industry
person on them. And what you can take out of
this if you want is these might be targeted players
for you, you know, if you're looking in for trade. Unfortunately,

(42:27):
not a lot of these guys are coming at any deals.
There's maybe a couple, but these are players that you know,
for better or for worse, the industry was making sure
like I'm taking this guy. I don't care about ADP,
you don't care about value, and they were the most
aggressive than anybody. I represent two players on this list.
Take a look here. I don't think anyone represents more

(42:49):
than two, which is, let's see, Jeff has got to,
I've got to, Nate Handy's got to. Yeah, there's nobody
on here that is, you know, there's not one person
that's got like seven of the top fifty or whatever.
But let's go through them. Number one, we've already talked
about Nate Handy. The highest of the most aggressive from

(43:11):
an industry person was Nate Handy with Andrew Painter. So
he took him four overall, what do we say? He
was eight on the ADP. So that was one of
two of Nate's really aggressive ones. And that's not an uncommonplace.
And you know, especially with pitching, you know like you're
gonna take your guys. Nate took his guy. His position

(43:31):
in the draft did not dictate that he was gonna
be able to get Andrew Painter, and rightfully so. Painter
never went outside the top twelve. So it's like you
take Painter or you don't. In that league, though, it
went Roman, Anthony Roki, Sazaki, Christian Campbell, so he passed
on Dominga's cruise. Joe Walcott. You know that's probably He

(43:58):
probably felt like if I don't get Anthony, I don't get Roki,
and I don't get Christian Campbell. I mean, I can't
speak for him. Maybe he would have taken him one overall.
I don't know. But he was the most aggressive on
Andrew Painter. And I'm looking at this. There's only three
pitchers on this list whatsoever. So this is number one
of the three must have industry aggressive players. Number two

(44:22):
is another top ten player. George Bissel from NBC made
sure to get Leo Divries. So we said Leo Direes
was ten overall. He had kind of a bigger variance,
you know, eight fifteen, fourteen, But George took him at
six overall. He passed on Jason Dominguez, passed on Matt Shaw.
I'm just looking at a couple of players. Mana. Rodriguezn't

(44:43):
really high in that league. Travis Bizana actually was. That's
where Clike took him really high. But he made sure
to take Leo Direes. Nothing crazy, I don't think that's
crazy whatsoever. That was just the high marker and George
made sure to get him. We talked about Hajesus made
c k was the most aggressive. He's a person in
the industry. Jesus Madi at thirteen overall, and as mentioned before,

(45:05):
Travis Bozana fifteen by Chris Clegig. So that was an
industry pick that he made sure to get the highest.
I guess what was the one with Clegig I was
talking about where he took him ten? Oh did I
say fifteen? Ten? I'm sorry? Ten overall? So I wrote
that incorrectly. Clig took him at ten. His ADP was fifteen,

(45:27):
which is exactly where Scott White took him. But Chris
Clig took him at ten overall. So Bizanna made Dvreese painter.
Kind of names we've talked about, here's some new ones.
I was the highest. I technically did tie, but we'll
just use me for the fun of it. Bryce Eldridge
of being the high on him, he had a very

(45:48):
low variance high of seventeen, low of twenty, so he
was going right in between there. His ADP was eighteen.
I took him at seventeen. I was the high one.
Nothing really to speak home about. This is a fun one, though.
Zayre Hope one of the you know, very popular names
that has pushed up three of the four picks were
by the industry for him, Eric Cross got the best deal.

(46:12):
It looks like at thirty he fell down to thirty,
but Chris Blessing took him twelve overall. So ADP of
twenty as low as thirty or I'm sorry, yeah, EIGHTP
of twenty low as thirty. Chris Blessing made sure took
him with the first round pick the last in the
first round. And now I'm curious. Blessing took Zayre Hope

(46:34):
and Hazus Made. Okay, so that was the that's a
I mean, think about that pairing. Hazus Made and Zayre
Hope he took at the end of the first round.
That was really interesting by Chris Blessing, very aggressive, so
you know he wasn't the highest on Jesus made. I
don't think that. Maybe I wrote this wrong. Oh yeah,
you know what I did. I'm sorry I wrote. I

(46:56):
said Hazus Mady was thirteen. He was ten. The high
was ten, the average was thirteen. So I screwed that
up in a couple spots. So Bazana and Made both
had highs of ten. I took Bryce Eldrid Sayer Hope Okay,
so now we're going to go into the twenties again.
These are players that industry people were super hyper aggressive
on Nick Kurtz. Nick Kurtz, even though his ADP was

(47:19):
twenty four, Beck made sure he was taking him. He
took him at twenty three. That's higher than anybody for
Nick Kurtz. Matt Thompson said, I am taking Colt Emerson.
Colt Emerson ended up having an ADP quite a bit lower.
And this is a little bit more of a dramatic high,
not crazy or anything, but dramatic high twenty two overall

(47:41):
for Colt Emerson. So you know, you have one, two, three, four, five, six, seven,
eight players that represent inside a top twenty five that
were being aggressively, at least in this instance not necessarily
by the ADP that industry guys made sure to get.
And these are all like it's hard to argue with
a lot of these. I love Nick Kurtz. You know
that there is a reason for all of these. I love,

(48:02):
I love Bryce Elderts. I took him. Colt Emerson makes sense. Nate,
this is Nate Handy's second one here, and this one
is interesting because he pops up in then and I'll
just do it here he pops up in the next
category we're gonna talk about of highest variants, Nate was
the highest on Kevin McGonagall, and this one I just

(48:24):
can't hate on because McGonagall looks insane that I have
some probably more serious questions long term about like what
the power is gonna look like? And the it's kind
of actually similar to cold Emerson, like what will the
offensive profile really look like? You know, is it gonna
look is it gonna look huge? Is it gonna be
like a top two round guy? I'm gonna like I

(48:46):
need to like look at some players and give you
because I have it's like on the tip of my
tongue of the examples, you know, because I don't want
to say like Corman Carroll because that's not it, But
you know, is he gonna be a version of let's say,
can Tell Marte, you know, Kevin mcgonagill or Jackson Merrill,
you know, or it is the profile going to look
like a little bit closer like an Alex Bragman who's

(49:08):
so good, really good, puts up good stats, but is
like closer to it bottom one hundred guys. So that's
kind of where I was going with it. Nate took
him at twenty one overall, But in accord to what
I was talking about before the next territory we're going
to talk about is the highest variance, so that is
the highs between the lows. He had a high of
twenty one at a low of fifty five, that's a

(49:32):
really big change. And the middles in those they're in
like the thirties, so you know, maybe that thirty ranges
a little bit more appropriate, but you want to get
him into the twenties. But that also shows you, like
there was the lead check this out the league that
he went fifty five. My dear friend dan fu took

(49:52):
him at fifty five. Want to remind you here are
some of the Here are the people that were in
that league, James Anderson, Frank stamf, Chris Blessing. Blessing was like,
I'm taking Zaiere taking and they let McGonagall go that
far down and Danville got him at fifty five. So
I just want to give you some context with that
as well, whether it's you know, people getting hyper focused

(50:14):
on where they're targeting or just overall evaluations that they
kind of let that slip and that can happen sometimes,
and that can happen in your own league where someone
is just a little bit indifferent about a player like
Kevin McGonagall so high of twenty one, low of fifty five.
But Nate was the most aggressive, so that was an
industry pick. The only this one is I love this

(50:35):
one just for my own like I love it. The
only James Anderson showing on the most aggressive is in
this range with the thirty fourth overall pick the highest.
No one took him higher Jack cagleone, and I just
love it. I think back to all the the concerns
we've had and the stuff about Jack. No one took

(50:56):
him higher than James Anderson. But what's interesting about it
and how everything kind of flowed out That was his
ADP too. It wasn't like he took him high. He
was just he took him the highest, but he ended
up being thirty four. That's one of those interesting things
where you're like, well, how does that happen? Because he
went thirty five forty forty. It's just it's the variance

(51:16):
between the other players and how the math works out.
It ended up being thirty seven point three, which was
a pick higher than the next guy, one and a
half picks lower than Kevin McGonagall, so that's where they
kind of flowed up. But James was the highest on him.
Tim Kannak, they can Chase Burns. We talked a lot
about Chase Burns. Loved the stuff. He took him thirty
five overall. We talked about how high Chase Burns was

(51:40):
in kind of the actual overall. This is close ish
to his overall ADP. But Nate also took him, so
Nate handy on the pitching side, made sure to get him.
But Tim Kannak was the absolute highest on Chase Burns.
Jeff Ponce enters the room with two picks one. I'm

(52:03):
not sure I got be honest with you, the timeline
is escaping me a tiny bit of had the news
come I don't think the news had quite come down,
and this might change a little bit. But it also
I think it's kind of important to think about the
perceived value chased. The latter nobody took Chased the lotter
higher than mister Jeff Ponce. He took him. I'm looking

(52:25):
for him on here at thirty two overall amongst prospects,
but he had a low of sixty seven. Jeff was
also the only industry person to take the latter, but
he has always loved the lotter. I love the lotter.
This last injury, though, really left me just kind of
sitting on the curb alone of like, what are we

(52:46):
supposed to do like this guy. This guy's got Mike
Trout's injury history without a major league get back. What
the hell are we doing? But he is massively talented,
and I think that doesn't take away the other guy.
He took another Guardian though with the next pick, he
was the higher than anybody on Jason Churio. He took
him at forty one overall, and I like that one.

(53:07):
I like Jason Churio. You also, and you can clearly
see sometimes these are interesting to tell. Dylan White, the
robo scout over on Baseball America, was also took Jason Turio.
They weren't in the same league, they were in opposite leagues,
but very fascinating when because I can see it right here,
when you can see League four and League one, both

(53:28):
of those guys taking a similar player. That would actually
be an interesting thing to do, is you know, find
the where did Klegen cross pick similar players. Where did
da dad? You know, like that type of thing. But
they both took Jason Trio, so I think that's telling.
Chario added, you know some weight, great contact player already
not striking out some more body mass for some potential power.

(53:49):
I'm not sure he's going to be his brother or
anything like that, but he's such a great pick, and
he really didn't have variants forty one to forty nine.
That's the high and the low. So he is. It's
like smack dab in the middle somewhere in the forties
if you might need to reach a little bit higher
if you want him. Jeff made sure he did. He
got him at forty one. Two more oh four pictures

(54:12):
because last two are pictures, and I didn't see the
one I took. This is my second name. My first
one was Bryce Eldridge. Number two was Chase Dolander. I
love me some Chase Dolander, and it looks like he's
gonna break camp. Sure. I hate that he's a rocky.
It's stinks, but his stuff is so good and you
just want to sometimes bet on those guys. I took

(54:34):
him at forty one. He did go to forty seven
to one person he went fifty three and fifty six.
Jesse Roach also did take him, so we both took him.
I got him in the mid rounds getting a value
on a starting picture of his caliber. I really was
in but I took him the highest of anybody I
represent that and the final one is Hagen Smith, but
Matt Thompson. Matt Thompson took Colt Emerson and then Hagen

(54:55):
Smith forty six on the list. Nobody took him higher,
but I took him as well. I got him in
the league and George Bissel, So that was three of
the four of us, and that someone had a funny
name in there in the same league as James Anderson,
because if you James's Twitter is the real JR. Anderson.
This has messed me up in this data. This guy
called himself the fake JR. Anderson and he took him,

(55:17):
but me, Matt Thompson, and George all took him, Matt
being the highest and the only one that reached into
the forties for him. Those are the players that industry
people are the most aggressive on. Fifteen players, four pitchers,
some close to the majors and some guys that are
really far away aken you do whatever you want with that.

(55:38):
I kind of look at that as like, oh, maybe
you know, if you ask that question of like, hey,
who are some prospects I should target? There you go.
Those would be some names that has a nice blend
of multiple different really smart people that think about prospects
from a fantasy perspective and valuations. That's a list right
there of people that were massively aggressive. So there you go.

(56:00):
All right, two more things here. Let's talk about the
players that had the highest variance. I use that word
of high and low, so that's just separators between how
high was someone willing to go and how low did
they go. We use that over on Fantasy Pros in
some instances, just like this as well. Some instances it's
one person. You know, the same thing will happen with

(56:21):
like a rank on Fantasy Pros, and you'll be like, oh,
this guy is a high of twenty eight, but his
ADP is ninety four and he has a low of
two hundred. All it takes is one person. But that's
every league. And that's why I think these are so
interesting and valuable because it just takes one person, takes
one person in your league. That person might not exist,

(56:42):
so then you're like, oh, I can't do this well
blah blah, okay, but it takes one person to massively
raise up or lower And I think it's just interesting
to look at what players did people have differing opinions on.
So we just looked at like, this is the targets,
these are the high industry guys. Well, this list does

(57:04):
not have an agreement, though I did tell you maybe
what ends up being the most fascinating is Kevin McGonagall
because he's on both of those lists. There's a big variance,
but I believe that fifty five is also kind of
an outlier. Here are the other players. The highest player
with the highest high and ends up having when you
go inside the top ten but then you're low. Has

(57:26):
a twenty spot variance that stands out to me, and
that is Lazarro Mantes. Lazarro ended up having an EIGHTYP
inside the top twenty five, but he went as high
as nine on the list. Someone took him inside the
top ten, but then he went as low as thirty three.

(57:50):
So in this that's like the end of the third round.
That's still a third round pick and a fifteen team.
That's a big differential, and I get it. You know,
that's how he kind of is. I've talked to plenty
of people that are like, Nope, Lazarro is this. Lazarro
is that I'm more of a defender. He did have
some you have to worry about some of the contact rates,

(58:13):
but you know his off season and his work. He's
got to do with Ulio Rodriguez, Randiya Rose Arena. A
lot of attention happens in camps from Eachie Row. His
body's going in the right direction and he's hit really well.
I have a lot of hope that he still has
the potential to be like a stud. So I'm not
on the nine side, but I'm in between this. But
that's a high variance. Number two is another Mariner. This

(58:36):
one I'm asking you a little bit surprised about. But
I think there's there's kind of a hands up thing
Felnon Selston. When as high as nineteen on this list
but as low as forty four, that is a that's
a big change. The outlier, though, is the nineteen that

(58:57):
is the one that's all there. I actually took Felman.
Had that nineteen not been there, I could have been
the high because I took him in the thirties, but
he went as high as nineteen. The others were in
the forties, So a high of nineteen, a low of
forty four. So there's a again there's a little bit
of a disagreement on the value. That's something you can
do with these players. If you're a guy on Lazarro,

(59:19):
hopefully you're in a league with someone that values him
outside the top twenty five. If you have somebody that
values him side the top ten and you don't, you
can see like how much this changes. But those are
two Mariners prospects that are people. The Felman one stands out.
You know, he got he was really great in rookie
ball and then he got hurt, and you know, there
hasn't been enough playing time. But like I'm if you're

(59:40):
in on Leo DeVries, I think he should be on
Felmon Selston. So I think he might be a tiny
bit undervalued. We talked about Kevin McGonagall twenty one fifty five.
This one is a really big variance. Jacob Wilson with
a high of twenty.

Speaker 1 (59:55):
This is.

Speaker 2 (59:57):
As far as like the top one hundred goes. This
might be the biggest. It's a high of twenty six
and a low of one oh five. Now, there could
be a little I mean I'm going to say that,
I was about to say, like there could be a
little bit of like, oh, should I take him in this?
I mean, he's prospect eligible and he went in all

(01:00:18):
the drafts, so I think everybody knew about him. But
he went twenty six, fifty two, sixty eight and one
oh five all over the freaking board, phenomenal spring for Homers,
lots of contact, but we all do know that, like
there's a mutedness to his potential fantasy impact that has
a lot of people in question. You know, the twenty

(01:00:40):
six might be someone with a little bit more of
a point space brain one oh five. I mean, I'm
not even really sure, Like I'm not gonna let Jacob
Wilson fall that far, but I did. That was my league.
And I'm shocked that I'm looking at this and I
was maybe it's the same thing as like who is
the guy I was just talking about this in James

(01:01:01):
and Blessing and Stanfill's league, like how did we let
him fall? I'm looking at this like how did I not?
How was I not? I just I didn't and he
fell all that way, so I screwed up a little bit,
but I'm on a higher side. But that's like one
of the biggest variants. One of the first ones that
actually when I started this process that really stood out
to me was braid Montgomery. That's I don't know that one.

(01:01:23):
I think that one is a fatigue of not understanding,
you know, because he had the foot injury, didn't get
any playing time, got traded by the Red Sox. You know,
a lot of Red Sox prospect fans and stuff out
there that you know, maybe there's like a oh, you
go to the White Sox, you stink. Now, I'm not
really sure what to make of it, but he's all
over the fricking board thirty nine, forty six, fifty six,

(01:01:45):
seventy five. So thirty nine to thirty nine to seventy
five is a pretty wide margin. I'm very much in
the camp that Braiden Montgomery is going to be studdish
and I don't know. It's a White Sox and the development.
I like Jarsh barr Field, and I actually I like
what this team is doing under the hood, and I
think three years White Sox could be as long as

(01:02:08):
they don't trade off all the pieces like they were
with like Garrett Crochet. If you've got like Noah Schultz
and Grand Taylor and Hagen Smith and Burke leading out
your rotation, and you've built up Kyle Teel and Braidon
Montgomery and George Woolco, and you know they've they've traded
for just the I mean Colson Montgomery. You got a
bunch of really interesting guys. Braid Montgomery could be the

(01:02:29):
best of all of them from a fantasy perspective. So
I'm a big buyer. So if there is like low
valuations of Braid Montgomery, I want to buy some other ones.
And this I'm gonna try to give you the numbers.
We'll try to do like quick math here. This one
is seventy pick difference Mois's Balisteros with a high of
forty two and a low of one seventeen. And when

(01:02:52):
you know it, Ballisteros is low was in my league
again and Nate Handy got him at one seventeen, but
somebody took him as high as forty two on the list,
So that's a huge margin. This one, this is math
math here, This is about seventy If I'm doing the
math right, which honestly, I'm not sure that I am. Yeah,

(01:03:15):
I think it's seventy seventy pick difference. Argin Namala. Argin
Namala had a low of one twenty five. That's kind
of a last year's valuation had a high a fifty five.
But friends the outliers the one twenty five that league
had Eric Cross, Tim Kanak, c K Matt Thompson, and

(01:03:40):
surprisingly they let him fall. But it happens to all
of us. But that is the outlier because he went
in the sixties. On the others, Jeff Ponce took him
in the sixties. So very Arginamala is super interesting, might
be very obtainable in drafts the valuation is higher, he
gets pushed down a tiny bit, but one had him out,
say the top one hundred. That one stands out to me.

(01:04:03):
This is probably, I think one of my favorites. I
have put a big jump on him. I know Cleig
would co sign on it because he's been tweeting a
lot about him very much, and on George Lombard, and
George Lombard has just clearly physically changed his body, swing
looks different, making incredible decisions. You got a lot of like,

(01:04:25):
outside of fantasy industry, people just just screaming about George Lombard.
George Lombard had a high of fifty nine and a
low of one to ozho nine. Here is where the
shame is though. The low came from Clegg's league. Chris,
How could you do this? How could you let this happen? Clegg?

(01:04:48):
I mean I let it happen too. How did I
not get George Lombard? But the reason I didn't because
he went the highest in my league. He went fifty
nine in the league that I was in. That's a
that's a big range. That's a fifty spot range for
a player that I think is closer on the higher end.
And I can't tell you the one oh nine or
the fifty nine is the outlier, because then there's a seventy,

(01:05:10):
and then there's an eighty seven, so they're all over
the board. I do think that trend's higher right now
because you have a lot of people that are on
board with George Lombard. But that's a pretty big variance.
Colby Thomas had a very big change seventy eight from
that's the variants sixty eight on the high one thirty
eight on the low has a big number, but the

(01:05:32):
one thirty eight is the outlier that is quite a
bit lower. Dan Fu got him at one thirty eight
in the Blessing in James Anderson League. That's crazy. Sixties
and eighties were the others, so I think his ADP
is well represented at seventy eight. These two are over
a hundred spot difference. These last two on the variants

(01:05:52):
I'm going to talk to you about. They both have
a high of twenty eight and they have a low
of one thirty eight and one thirty nine. Huge differences,
and would you know it, they're actually right next to
each other in ADP. It's crazy. Number one is Luisan Hellicunya.

(01:06:17):
Like Jacob Wilson. You could throw in maybe people weren't
paying attention or did it. I'm not one hundred percent sure.
He went twenty eight in one of these, which is wild,
but he went one thirty eight in another. I will
say though the twenty eight is massively the outlier. It
was like ninety eight and one oh two, so eighty three. Again,

(01:06:37):
this is why this is good to have multi I
think is a proper representation of where that high end
low can go. The final one Ethan Solas Ethan Solas,
with a high of twenty eight and a low of
one thirty nine. The twenty eight, like Luisan Helicuni, is
the outlier, but in this instance, the twenty eight was
Nate Handy. Nate Andy took him twenty eight overall. A

(01:07:01):
catcher Jeff Ponce also took him, but at one oh four.
His others were ninety eight and one thirty nine, so wildly,
wildly outlier of twenty eight. It did push his ADP higher, though,
because his ADP you know, if you took out that
twenty eight would have been you know, probably like one ten,

(01:07:21):
one oh five. This pushes him into the eighties and
around some really fascinating names as well. But those two
had high variants. There are plenty of other players. There's
I see a pitcher right here that has a high
of sixty one and a low of two hundred. Actually,
that's crazy. There's a hitter here that is a high
of forty five and a low of two hundred. Wow,
there is it. This is the craziest one. This is crazy.

(01:07:45):
I'm gonna actually say this one. Denzel Clark had a
high of twenty five in a league and a low
of two hundred because he did not get drafted in
one league. That's wild. That is a one. There are
some big one and you can see at all the
tab of the highs and lows. You can kind of
go through them. That was me showing you the variants
across the board. All right. That leaves us with the

(01:08:09):
final bit here. I had some other guys I thought
were interesting just to throw out. We talked about Lombard,
I'll just tell you right now, Michael Royal, Spencer Jones, Yarlin, Susana.
Very interesting valuations you guys might want to check out
on here. Those stood out to me. But there was
only one player that was taken by an industry drafted
person in every league. And I want to say I

(01:08:32):
had like five last year. Usually have a couple. I'm
not sure if I've just had maybe I've had one before.
It's especially when you know, sometimes I do six leagues,
sometimes I do five. This time I decided to do four.
The likelihood kind of goes up a little bit. But
when I did five, I had more. There's only one
that went across the board. So that is your big standout.

(01:08:55):
And let me pull this up here, for is it
popular prospect minor league name said player across the board.
As I typed this in so I can fully get this,
there we go. Iro Badilla with the Saint Louis Cardinals. Yiro, Yeah,
I'm saying that correctly. Iro Yiro Yai r Pa d Ill,

(01:09:18):
a shortstop with the Saint Louis Cardinals who last season
in the Dominican Summer League, hit two eighty seven, had
a homer, then ten extra base hits of his thirty
nine great OBP. He ended up walking seventeen and triking
out twenty nine, but he had a three ninety one OBP.
Sotole twenty two bases, actually attempted twenty seven bases in

(01:09:40):
thirty five games. So hyper hyper aggressive seventeen year old
shortstop with the Saint Louis Cardinals has a lot of
people talking. He was the only player that was taken
across the board by industry people. He was taken by
Dylan White at fifty overall, by Frank Stamfel at one

(01:10:02):
twenty nine, by Matt Thompson at one seventy one, and
Chris Klegg at one thirty five. That's some variants, my friends.
That's one hundred and twenty picks. It ended up rounding
out that his ADP was one oh eight on this list,
so just outside the top one hundred killer names that
he's around. But it stands out that Dylan White also was. Again,

(01:10:25):
I only remember the aggressive thing I did. It was
only the top fifty. This would have been one that
would have stood out, but this was across the board,
the only industry pick. So again, iiro Badilla shortstop with
the Saint Louis Cardinals y AI R O PA d
I L l A twenty two stolen bases last season,

(01:10:45):
great OVP, good plate presence, a lot of good scout
conversation around it, and I think you can definitely see it,
uh in where he was being taken. Now I gave
you there's one other name in here that is a
site note. I very much respect my dear friend Dan Fu,
and I think Dan Fu is at the tippy top
of dynasty players, and like, if I were doing this,

(01:11:08):
I gotta have Dan Fu in there, which I kind
of I view. I know you guys might not all
know him. You might know Dan, but I just wanted
to do this one because three other industry people took
this player and then Dan Fu, and I was like,
we gotta highlight this one. With an ADP of one
oh three. Scott White took this player at one thirty five,
Dan Fu took him at one twenty seven, Tim Kanak

(01:11:32):
took him at one oh seven, and the highest was
George Bissel at sixty seven. Tin Kents with the Saint
Louis Cardinals two Saint Louis Cardinals technically on the All
Industry team, are you kidding me? With the Saint Louis
Cardinals business and a pitcher, Scott White had to have him,
Tim Kanak, George Bissel, and Dan Fu. He is kind

(01:11:53):
of our one point five of the All Industry Tim
Kent and the Irobidia. Yeah, very very fascinating. Some of
the cool stuff you can pull apart from this, and
there's a million other things, Like I said, I'm looking,
you know, Yannil Grett seeing where he went a Griffin burkeholder.
You just look across the board and you can kind

(01:12:14):
of get a really good understanding of what a public perception. Again,
you can look at this a million different ways, but
a public perception valuation board of prospects going into the season,
clearly this will change how the prospect world works. You know,
Colson Montgomery goes oh for fifteen and he'll be outside
the top one hundred is sometimes it works like a

(01:12:35):
stock chart. Sometimes prospects are like a crypto chart. To
be honest with you, people are treating it like it's
you know, doze or XRP or whatever the hell, like
guys go way up and down. What I think is
really interesting about this and has staying power is this
is that non momentary thing that's happening. These are the

(01:12:56):
valuations in without the current moment being a part of it.
So you can, you know, you can see like where
public perception is, you know, in a month from now versus.
But I think this can kind of bring you back
home to some of the craziness that's going on. But
you know, there are a million prospects we didn't talk
about that you may want to know. So go over
to end this League dot com if you want, you
can sign up. I usually know there's like an option

(01:13:18):
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(01:13:39):
Get the stuff, support whatever it is. I just appreciate
you guys, and I really hope you guys like this
stuff as much as I do, because it's the best.
I love looking at this. I love, you know, picking
out these little charts of players and be interested what
you guys have to say. Coming up next week, I
am going to be reaching out to some of my
friends and doing our Bold Prediction show. Yes before the

(01:13:59):
minor league seas and starts, try to get on some
of my industry friends and see if we can get
who their breakout pitcher and hitter are. That'll be the
plan for next sea next week, and then we will
be kind of carrying into the season as well. The
regular season starts. I will be doing again. Opening Day
is gonna be crazy leading off on Twitch. Then I'm

(01:14:20):
going to be doing a live stream which will probably
be a part of our twitch and YouTube whicheveryone you
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(01:14:41):
opening day going to see the Diamondbacks, So make sure
you kind of put a pin in that and check
out all the other stuff we got gone on over
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We're breaking records over there. So I appreciate your guys
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(01:15:04):
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I will talk to you next week right here on
Prospect one