Episode 396 - Prospect Reports with Beck of Dynasty Dugout - Prospect One

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
In this League podcast. That word present Prospect one.

Speaker 2 (00:06):
So Fantasy Prospect podcast Prospect What with your host Chris Welch.

Speaker 1 (00:15):
This is the Fantasy Baseball Prospect podcast. This is Prospect one.
Hello friends, I'm your host, Chris Welsh. You can find
on Twitter and Instagram at is it The Welsh Instagram's
popping off a little different lately. I'm putting a lot
more prospect videos on there, so I do some of
the big ones on the Twitter. Put over on the Instagram.
I'm putting some other ones that you might want to
check out, So go follow me there and over at

(00:37):
in this League dot Com Today. The plan is later
today because I'm actually hanging out with my Fantasy pros
co host Joe Pizapia for a little bit. The plan
is to drop the top five hundred Prospect update and
Dynasty update on Patreon at in this League dot Com.
Love to have you guys check it out over there.
Plus we got incredible group me rooms with an awesome community,
live streams, and a whole bunch of others in this

(00:59):
League dot Com. Come and sign up today in This
League dot Com and joining me on the show today
is Beck from the Dynasty dugout. We've got some hot
prospects to talk about. Big sliders, big stolen bases, and
just overall big production. We're gonna be talking about some
of his ranks on some of these players, and one
guy that could maybe take a little jump up with

(01:20):
a torpedo bat. Plus, I have got some live looks
for you guys, Bryce Eldridge, Johnny Level or Johnny Level
as you might have seen his name, Ivan Melndez, some more, JD. Dicks,
Titus Cecil, and I was able to see Johnny Farmelo
just the other day, as well as Blake Mitchell and
a couple others. So we got some live looks for

(01:41):
you guys, beck on the show. It's gonna be a
fantastic episode. Make sure you guys go check out my
friend Dennis Sidler' right Sidsgrass with incredible in person autograph stuff.
You guys know that I love all of that, whether
it's jerseys, full size helmets, baseballs, just unique stuff and
cards on some of the game's best prospects. Go and
check them out today and major leaguers as well. Michael

(02:03):
King Jake Berger were two recent signings. Go and check
him out on Instagram. Website and eBay at sids Grafts,
so got a full show. Not going to go too crazy,
but I did get some live looks going out to
some stadiums. One of the coolest ones for me was
going and get to see Katel Marte the other day.
I've already talked about it on podcasts and tweeted about
it and stuff. But you know, one of the days

(02:25):
I had, well really both of the days, I took
the drive out to the Diamondbacks facility, which is kind
of far from me, specifically to try to see Kittel
and see like how he's looking. And I did get
video of it, and I took a picture with him,
got this like, you know, be actually around him yesterday.
But in that I've had opportunities a multitude of times
to see you know, JD. Dix and Titus Cisel, Cecil Cisel.

(02:48):
I'm increasingly liking Titus even more. Just an incredibly great
bat to ball, you know, I think it's just all
it's just like lower leveled right now, but as he
gets older, I think he's in a steel base. I
think he can hit for average. I think there's a
good power swing in there right now. It's like a
doubles power swing or maybe even just like a really
good line drive approach. I don't know if it's ever

(03:09):
going to move off of that, but even if it doesn't,
I think he can be a number two hitter. And
I got to see him in BP JD. Dix. I'm
continuously impressed with talking with him more. I got to
watch him in BP those games. The guy has just
like that's the type of guy. I think that's going
to make a big Fantasy impact, Very very high on JD. Dix.
Ivan Melendez is out here rehabbing. Melindez still looks like

(03:32):
he always does. You know, there's some of the biggest
power you've ever seen. We still have like low zone issues,
especially off speed stuff. Doesn't really look a whole lot different,
which is it's kind of unfortunate. You would you'd want
there to be some big progressive state or change for him,
but you know, he's also dealing with injury. He's going

(03:52):
to go back to double A. We'll see if things
start to click. Playing a lot of first base as
he's been rehabbing out here as well. Kevin sim has
been out here playing some short The Giants came into
town and I was very pleasantly surprised by Bryce Eldridge.
I didn't know Bryce Eldridge was going to be doing
any rehabbing. I kind of just wasn't even a thought.
I thought like I might see Rayner Arius. Johnny Lavelle

(04:15):
was somebody that I thought was definitely going to be
a possibility and got to see him. But Bryce Eldridge
just pops up and talked to him before and he
said as long as everything goes good, his expectations, he
would be out of there maybe this weekend. So that's
not a guarantee. Like here's a caveat for you. Katl
said on Tuesday to the people I was with that

(04:37):
he's hoping to be back on this Tuesday. Like the
home stand toward level is saying everything different, So I'm
not sure that that's actually the case of what's going
to happen. So just because these guys are saying it,
the team and organization might maybe they want to potentially
slow roll some of this stuff. But you know, he
did say it, so I imagine he wants to get
out of here soon, so there's a possibility he could

(04:59):
be back with I guess the expectation will be double A.
There was a time it felt like maybe he would
go to triple A. But you know, his pipeline page
is at double A, so that's where I think he's
gonna go. He looked good, patient, he walked. You know,
I put out this video. It is so funny. So
many people loved it. You know, I just love seeing
these guys sometimes what it's all about. And it wasn't

(05:20):
anything special, But then there's always like one person that's like,
you post a walk video and I was like, yeah, man,
letting you guys see him, Letting you see what he
physically looks like. You may not have seen him in
a while. How the approach at the ABAT is. I
think he took a couple of swings in the bat,
but ultimately he ended up walking. He's gonna just he's
just gonna be a stud. You know, he's just clearly
a stud. Bat speed through the roof, looks even a

(05:43):
tiny bit more comfortable in the box than he did
in the AFL. I know he was really burned, burned
out in the AFL. Started slow started picking it up.
Plate discipline looks really tight here early on, which I
think is great, and the swing path looks a little
bit even shorter. So I'm very very positive on Bryce Eldridge,
and I expect him to be up pretty soon. Lavelle's

(06:05):
kind of interesting. Not as big of a physical prospect
as I thought. That sometimes happens with some of these
DSL guys. You might have like some preconceived expectation, but
you know, when you look at like the pipeline page,
you know they listen five to ten one fifty four,
I would say he's a bit bigger, uh, weight wise
than that. Looked a little bit thicker. I probably guess
like five ten, one seventy five one eighty right now,

(06:27):
So be interesting to see if he gains any height
or anything like that. But kind of doesn't have like
the superstar field to it, especially watching I like the
bat right now. He had ten homer's eighteen stolen bases
two seventy five in the DSL last year, and he
should play in rookie ball the majority of this year.
Pretty decent plate presence grounded out in his first at

(06:47):
bat that I saw, so we're going to see a
ton more of him. But did get to get some
early looks, Like I said, tiny bit smaller than I
think I physically was thinking, so come back out a
couple days later Diamondbacks. You know, that's where I saw
the VP sessions. Then from there after I saw Katel.
Decided I wanted to try to get over all the
way on the other side of the town, back closer
to my house as the Royals and Mariners were going

(07:10):
against each other. But we found out Blake Mitchell was
rehabbing for the Royals and Johnny Farmelo was in his
second game for the Mariners, so that seemed like a
good idea. So traveled all the way across town, but
I'd come home anyways, get there in time Farmelo versus
Blake Mitchell. But also the Royals lineup looks pretty great.

(07:31):
I think it's Ergotti. I think is then the name.
Let me pull this up here because I'm I'm going
to butcher this. It's John aker Ugardi. We're gonna go
with that international prospect with the Royals. Another DSL guy
last year hit two ninety nine with an over four
hundred OBP, one homer, but eleven stolen bases eight hundred

(07:53):
ops last year, and he was very impressive. He line
drived a single right out the shoe and his very
first at bat. I think he ended up having a
ground out and then a flyout in his others, but
really really good approach, pretty solid body, six two one eighty,
and he was, you know, around just like a lot
of advanced ish type of players. Javier Vaz was rehabbing

(08:16):
with the Royals. Blake Mitchell was there and I thought
Uguardy really stood out. He is a guy in deeper
leagues you're gonna want to pay attention to. I know
some people are like locked back into him because he's
one of those guys that's in like the new Bowman.
So you see names and people start looking very impressed
with them. Six two one eighty, they list him out.
There's video on my I think I put it on

(08:36):
my Twitter, but I know one hundred percent put it
on my Instagram if you want to see the bass
hit that he had who GUARDI was impressive. We also
saw Yandell Ricardo who got bigger, got way bigger. He's
a shortstop for the Royals. He's out there playing Blake
Mitchell though. I just want to throw this out there,
Blake Mitchell is looking like Spencer Streider at Catcher. He

(08:59):
is a quad z Z. I actually should put a video.
I'll put a video on my Instagram of it. He
didn't really do anything in his bats. I think he
had a flyout and a walk. I think I saw
two or three of his at bats. No, it was
two fly out in a walk, so it wasn't anything crazy.
But he looks huge. And you know, Blake Mitchell's a
guy that was stealing bases this past year, hitting homers

(09:21):
the average we're still looking forward to go. Not let
me pull up his UH stat line for you guys,
because I don't have that right here, but I know
he was stealing a bunch of bases. He's dealt with
some injury stuff. Yeah, eighteen homers, twenty six dolen bases,
only a two thirty two average, but a three sixty
eight OBP last year the listim at sixty one two
oh two. I don't know, man, he looks bigger, and

(09:41):
I've seen him since his rookie year. He looks significantly
bigger and his quads are huge, and all that matters
from there is as like a really strong lower half
that he's going to be able to generate some power from. Uh.
Though he didn't do much, but the guy that did
do something was Johnny Farmelo, and that's got a lot
of track as soon as I put a tweet out,
because I also don't think anybody knew what was going on,

(10:04):
and no one knew where Johnny Farmelo was and he
was injured and he had the surgery last year. He's
been around the complex forever. But I caught him right
before too, and he was like, Oh, he's just such
a nice guy. So things for coming out and he's
super excited, says he's healthy. He gets in the game,
and I mean he looks huge. A's another guy. Like
when you're at these games, sometimes things don't stand out

(10:24):
in baseball where you know, like the size and age
different is apparent clearly when you were dealing with like
rookie ball stuff. There'll be moments, but it Blake Mitchell
and Johnny Farmelo had the feeling of like a major
leaguer rehabbing there because of how much physically bigger they
are than everybody. Formelo is huge. His stance actually feels

(10:46):
like a little bit different than it was before. He's
almost kind of got this bat rest on his shoulder
thing that's going on, but his approach is still fantastic.
It looked like there was a little hitchy front load,
but he was getting to the ball because he's really quick.
He really great eye. He walked in both of his
first two at bats, not that they were like super

(11:06):
impressive walks. You know, we're like, holy crap, look at
his eye. There were some bad pitches in there. It's
pretty windy day. But nonetheless he didn't really have any
bad hacks. I saw a bad hack or two for
Blake Mitchell, not really with Farmelo. The third at bat
was when he really lined up this fastball inside, pulls
it right over the first baseman's head and ends up

(11:29):
putting in a double. Beautiful swing, beautiful barrel, good contact
makes it super easy as well. And I think that's
the one that you get really excited about because you're like, oh, yeah,
he's healthy, he's good to go, I will say. In
his first walk, he got picked off though looked like
he wanted to be a little bit aggressive. He did
a little jump forward and then boom threw him out.

(11:52):
I don't have the video of physically seeing him get
thrown out, but I was filming and then I panned
over as he got thrown out so I could post
that as well, if anyone wants to see it, but
trying to be aggressive, didn't end up doing it, didn't
get the stolen base, but looked really good in that
at bat where you can see the double that's on
my Twitter and my Instagram. Very exciting that Farmelo's back

(12:13):
because Farmelo has got incredible upside. Now, Blake Mitchell does
kind of too. In two catcher fantasy leagues, like he,
I think he's underrated, he's under heralded his fantasy production.
Is a guy that you could see being like a
top one hundred prospect. He's got to hit for consistent average,
and that's still kind of not there, so we'll see
where that goes. But Johnny Farmelo is the type of

(12:34):
guy that's got like top twenty twenty five upside. That's
legitimately where we're talking about thirty plus homer in power.
He can steal, the kid, can hit for average. He's
just missed so much time. But he's back, and there
was talk that he might be out soon and he
might go back, and I guess it would be high
A I think is where you know at that I

(12:56):
didn't look at what like pipeline had put him. Farm
I didn't see where they put him out. I would
guess it's like Medesto. It, Yeah, it's Medesto. Oh so
it's single, like yeah, So he's looking like he's going
to play a few more games, and then I would guess,
you know, I mean, if they were comfortable with four,
then he could be out early next week. Sometime next week.

(13:18):
I think he might be back with Modesto because I'm
not sure what he's going to be served here. He
looked like he was trying to steal. He was playing
center field as well. That's the other thing for anybody.
He was out in center field for that one. So
I think he's going to be back soon. So a
couple of decent reports. Farmelo looks great, Eldridge looks great,
Mitchell at least looks healthy. And then there's some young
guys to pay attention to. Not a ton else on

(13:40):
the Mariners. Or was this guy I think it was
Gabrielle Mancato who had an insane homer. But the wind
was going ballistic. If you watch my videos, you'll hear
just like like blazing wind. So I think I carried
a tiny bit. But the Royals had tons of dues
hab your Vaz looked pretty great. Like I said, they
got Ugardi, Ricardo was out there, a couple at Colin Barber,

(14:01):
really fast, tall, lanky outfielder. There might be some interesting
dudes floating around the Royals that could even be in
rookie ball. But a couple guys Oz and Mitchell who
are going to move up. And those were a few
of the early looks. No big pictures to talk about yet.
Else major leaguers are out here, Kyle Wright, George Kirby
and stuff. But hopefully next week I'll get a couple
more looks. Keep giving you guys some of my live looks.

(14:24):
All right, let's get to my boy Beck. We have
a great conversation. We've got Diamondbacks, Reds, Yankees, Brewers, Dodgers,
all these prospects that we're going to be hitting. Getting
his take on it. I think he's one of the
best in the business. Beck is, so I'm excited to
have him on the show. Make sure again in this
league dot com on the Patreon you want to support
get access to the stuff. But let's go talk to
our boy Beck and some big hot prospects that you

(14:47):
guys need to be paying attention to say, I like you.
I like you so much. I'm going to make you
my partner.

Speaker 3 (14:55):
All he has to do is find the gold and
I'll share it with you.

Speaker 1 (14:59):
Fifty fifth prospect. What joining me now is the upper
of Becks? Yes, it is Beck from the Dynasty duckout
on the Twitter's at upper underscore. Beck, My man? What's up? Brother?

Speaker 3 (15:13):
How you doing?

Speaker 2 (15:13):
Man?

Speaker 3 (15:14):
Good to be back.

Speaker 1 (15:15):
We're doing good. We were just talking about this off air.
I'm just like fresh off of the crazy heat and
fields here seeing bray Eldridge as I talked about in
the open, some more JD. Dicks, getting some fresh looks,
and excited to talk to you about some of the
early performances. You've got some write ups on some players
we're going to be covering. We got a handful of
guys that we are going to be tackling. But how

(15:35):
has it been treating you so far? It's very small
sample sizes. What is your process? Beck? Yeah? You know?
What is it? Like a week? I think we're like
a week and a half into the majority of the
minor league season, not counting Triple A we're a little
bit further in. But when you see a lot of
this small sample size stuff. What's your balance between overreaction
and trying to jump on quick like how do you

(15:57):
balance this with some of these guys?

Speaker 2 (15:59):
I mean, great question. It's hard to know what to
do with the week and some change of games. I
think a lot of it is well the underlying data
triple and the Florida State League helps kind of with
these small samples. But I think a lot of it
is like sorting leaderboards and trying to get eyes on guys.
If I'm seeing something that I believe in and the
numbers agree, it's a lot of stuffing the watch list,

(16:21):
not making a lot of you know, big moves. I
think this time last year, guys like Quinn Matthews and
George Klassen were guys that you know, you'd see him
on video and think this is for real, the stuff
is for real. Not quite having that yet, But I
think getting eyes on some of these guys and just
firing up them ILBTV is a huge, huge part of
my process.

Speaker 1 (16:41):
Yeah, I completely agree, And it also is like lead
context specific, it's real. It is really tough. I think
in like the prospect space, because you've got so many
different types of people. The presumption would be as if
someone's listening to like a Fantasy Prospect podcast, are most
likely in a deeper league. But that's not one for one.
So it's like when we talk about guys, you know,
you have people that play in leagues that are more

(17:02):
primarily around like a top one hundred prospects, You've got
people that have eight hundred prospects, and you have everything
in between. So when you start talking about these guys
and then you know, like you get excited. I got
to talked about JD. Dix last week. I think I
really do think JD. Dix is a you know, pushing
like a top one hundred type of prospect, but he's
super far away, Like how do you balance that in
your league? So we got to be always careful about

(17:23):
all of this and then tackle in only two weeks
of production and you're getting some video game like numbers
for some players or some really big you know, lack
of production. Roman Anthony is like another example of that.
He came out really hot and then it's tapered back down.
Last I looked like a day or two ago, it was,
you know, a one sixty something average and things didn't
look great, Like do you really want to overreact to

(17:45):
something like that, to a younger guy being pushed to
triple A and struggling, like especially him specifically as a
number one prospect.

Speaker 2 (17:52):
Totally, you know, not not concerned about Anthony, but I
do think this is the period in the calendar where
you should be the most free with your roster spaces.
I would say take some speculative flyers because the value
you know that you could potentially capture.

Speaker 3 (18:05):
Here is the biggest it's going to be in the calendar.

Speaker 2 (18:08):
As far as, like you know, league depth is concerned,
I do really try to give an indication of what
size league is this player intriguing for somebody, you know,
the five hundredth overall prospect what have you might be
of genuine interest for somebody that's in one of these
wacko you know, thirty team leagues with thirty minor league.

Speaker 1 (18:28):
Q well one hundred prospects or whatever. And they're like, so,
you know, I'm looking at this and I got about
nine hundred deep, and it's like, oh my god, dude.

Speaker 2 (18:37):
I have had questions before where you know the person
dming me, I've not heard of one of these players,
you know, it's like one of these leagues where there's
fifteen hundred prospects rostered, and I'm like, I cannot differentiate
that player you know, for you from player one thousand.

Speaker 1 (18:53):
Yeah. Well I've always kind of said this too. If
you're looking at ranks that I know, like, you know,
whatever type of rank you do, I know you just did.
We'll talk about your you finished the prospect book there,
we'll talk about at the end of the show. But
it's like whether you're doing one hundred or two fifty
or five hundred or one thousand. I know, people take
the numerical side of it like very serious. I don't

(19:13):
think you really should take it massively serious. I think
it progress. It's just a it's a progression. It's like, Okay,
you know, number one from a valuation standpoint can be
exceptionally bigger than number five, but then like you know,
eleven to twenty it's a little bit bigger, but now
twenty might be closer to fifty, and then now fifty
one might be closer one to fifty. So it's like

(19:34):
you get have five hundred players, but it really might
be buckets, and there might be only really ten buckets
of those players. So to your point, the differentiation between
prospect one fifty eight and three hundred and seventy four
could be minimal, and it gets even worse when you're,
you know, prospects seven hundred to prospect eleven hundred. So

(19:54):
that's kind of the fun weird thing about it. But
I do agree in this early stage, if you've got
flexibility to kind of move around, there are guys that
you're gonna want to jump on. I actually think there's
a couple guys on this list that could be floating
around in some like post two hundred type of prospect
three hundred leagues potentially that are out there that if
you have the fluidity to do it, I think you
should do it. So let's jump in to some players

(20:15):
that we're going to break down today. One of those
that has video game like numbers, and this is a
player I believe you had just recently wrote up. This
is the guy that we've been able to see for
a little bit. His trajectory I think is super interesting
to me because I've seen him for a couple of
years on the Dodgers' backfield, and we're talking about Alex
Frielan Alex Friedlin with the Dodgers has moved up to

(20:36):
triple A and he's been absolutely dominating. He's I mean,
he's got like a five hundred average. I thought it was,
and I guess it's in the three forty four's one
homer five stolen bases. That five hundred actually averages someone
we're going to talk about a little bit. But hiwh aw,
great strikeouts there. He's just kind of mashing. I think
he's got like a sixty a sixty percent hard hit

(20:58):
rate of think it's sixty eight percent. Luckily Fangrafts now
gives us something a sixty eight percent hard hit rates
so far ninety seven average ev in triple A just
some monstrous numbers back toball skills are absolutely fantastic. Looks
like a fully tooled out type of player, a guy
that could probably be a twenty twenty given the opportunity.
The little caveat is like, where does he fit with

(21:20):
the Dodgers and how will they find that? But he's
already a triple A and he has been. This is
the other thing when you look at like the top end,
Triple A has got more stats obviously than double A.
Right now, we all talk about Nick Kurtz, but Alex
Freeland as far as a hitter goes is right there.
I think they're like both top five in overall hits
in triple A. So let's get some talk on Alex

(21:42):
Freeland here. What do you think in valuation of him
in early look so far?

Speaker 2 (21:47):
Yeah, I love telling player stories, and I think Alex
Freeland has a really interesting story.

Speaker 3 (21:52):
So I'm going to start the air.

Speaker 2 (21:53):
He was actually born with a club foot and had
multiple surgeries as a child to you know, get that
fixed up, and he thought playing baseball was like a
distant dream. There's our stories about his dad giving interviews
saying I just hope he grows up to be healthy
and happy, and like, you know, Freeland is a kid
talking about I didn't think I'd ever be able to make,

(22:15):
you know, a Derek Jeter jump throw, and to see
where he is now is just I think, like a
really fascinating story. So if any of the listeners want
to go ahead and give that story at Google, I
would recommend it's it's one of the better ones out there.

Speaker 1 (22:26):
And you know, you know, Abouck, I love like little
ancillary weird things about players and their personality and stuff
like that. I didn't even know that about Freeland. That's phenomenal.

Speaker 2 (22:35):
Yeah, it's I mean, it's really inspirational, and to see
him talk about it is pretty cool. So check that
out if you get the opportunity. But he was a
bit of a breakout early last year, and towards the
end of the year he looked kind of like a
bag of fifty five.

Speaker 3 (22:48):
It's just like a good.

Speaker 2 (22:49):
Big leaguer had a pretty pedestrian EV ninety to end
the year is one of three point nine, just a
halftick above the major league average, good process metric, what
have you. Early this year, the exits are jumping off
the page. The the max is up over three miles
an hour already, and he's carrying an EV ninety close

(23:12):
to one hundred and eight miles an hour. Granted it's
small sample, but he looks like an impactful player and
he runs better than you might think given that that
sort of inspirational vignette at the beginning. I think he
had thirty one bags last year and thirty three attempts,
like a ninety four percent success rate, So you know
it is he will stuff some categories for you, and

(23:32):
you know the Dodgers are currently playing a six time
Gold Glover out of position at shortstop. So I wouldn't
be surprised to see Freeland get a crack there over
somebody like Miguel Rojas, you know, maybe shortly after the
Super two cutoff.

Speaker 1 (23:45):
Yeah, you sometimes wonder if he's one of those guys
that ends up being like the big piece of a
bigger trade. You could see him been centered around, but
I'm not sure that this team would even want to
look to move him either. That's always the really tough
thing as these guys get further up, Like you obviously
like being blocked. It's like, hey, that's a trade piece,
but like if they have an injury, you know you
need depth across the board. He also has a legitimate

(24:07):
shot to be like a high impact player. I like
the decreased look at strikeouts as he's kind of moved
up last year Eighteen homers, thirty one stolen bases, scoring
one hundred runs as well. I mean, like he's a dog,
He's a guy that you put at the top of
the lineup. I think he makes a ton of sense
as a number two hitter. It's just can he do

(24:28):
that for a Dodgers team. I've really struggled with understanding
that you know, maybe we're like semi undervaluing him, but
also like where to place him there there is something
even if it's just small to like a guy being blocked,
and that block also has maybe a potential long term
effect on a player being able to work through and

(24:50):
mature at the major league level if they're only given
so much time where it's like, you know, hey, Mooki's
out for two weeks, freeling come up and then you're off.
It's like how can you get your footing under you?
Though that seam has done a pretty decent job of
like if you hit, you can stick around. Yeah, where
do you sit on Alex Freeland? Like what is the
rank range? I know you just did the one hundred

(25:11):
And also like do you think early anything you've seen
early on is warranting some type of a move in
the small sample size?

Speaker 2 (25:19):
Yeah, he just missed the book. When it went to
kind of final cuts, I would say I had him
in the like eighty to one hundred and forty range.
So when I say I just missed the book, that
kind of goes back to our tears discussion is like,
you know, fifty to one hundred and fifty is largely
a lot of the same player and just a few
better bets I wanted to make. Now I'd be pretty

(25:40):
comfortable putting him in the back end of the top
one hundred. The big thing for me is just how
hard he's hitting the ball. That max jump of over
three miles an hour and pretty comfortably sitting above his
ninetieth percentile is a big deal. And the heart hit rate.
He's putting the fat part of the bat on the
ball a lot, and the process metrics haven't really degraded

(26:01):
that much either. He had above average contact rates last year.
They're still sitting around average, so it's not like he's
selling out to get there. It just looks like something
is clicked and you can see it on the film.

Speaker 1 (26:12):
Next guy, let's take a look at is one that
I really struggle with. I have seen him a ton ton.
We also got to see him out in the Arizona
Fall League. I remember being at one of his pro
debuts out of Stanford. It is Tommy Troy. Now. One
of the reasons we're talking about Tommy Troy here is
because Tommy Troy is coming off of a MLB Pipeline

(26:37):
Player of the week or MLB just labeling him as
one of the players of the week. As far as
the different levels go, Tommy hitting four hundred, a homer,
a stolen base, a big tank of a homer. By
the way, he just put up thirteen runs so far.
The K percentage way down, he's walking a ton. Everything
is a bit inflated obviously on these short sample sizes.

(26:57):
But Tommy was really tough in the fall because you know,
you can see like a little bit shorter, you know,
like the thicker dude, and you can see the bat
speed in there. I don't know if there was always
like the best decision making on that swing, which makes
me feel I'm not sure where the batting average is
really going to go. He kind of showed that last
year as well. He only hit two thirty four across,

(27:19):
playing like a tiny bit in the complex, but really
in high a five homer, sixteen stolen bases, walk strike
out ratio is pretty decent. But like, he just hasn't
consistently shown ability to hit for contact. But he was
pressed very hard last year. Arizona Fall League was a
good test. He actually kind of came on on the
back end of the Arizona Fall League as well, and
now this season, you know, we're starting to see some

(27:41):
really really early returns. I'm really curious that your take,
especially when you're talking about a guy like Alex Frielan
and what he's doing at a higher level. What's your
assessment on Tommy Troy and what he's doing early on
this year.

Speaker 2 (27:52):
Yeah, I got to see Tommy Troy in the Arizona
Fall League. I always go out for like the last
two weeks of the circuit, so I'm wondering if I
just caught him on a heater, but the numbers were
better out there. It's a friendlier offensive environment. I kind
of wondered what that hamstring injury did for him, you know,
what that took away from his game and how much
of that he was playing hurt. A lot of these

(28:13):
teams don't disclose, you know, how a guy is doing
day to day. If they're healthy enough to play, they'll play. Otherwise,
you know, they're pretty tight lipped about what's going on there.
I've been a Tommy Troy fan for a while now,
and the big thing is to see the slugging back.
You know, last year, the slugging percentage started with a
three wasn't super great. I also have some questions about

(28:33):
the hit tool, but I think I'm pretty willing to
give him a mulligan for twenty twenty four based on
what I saw in person, what I'm seeing on the
film early this year, and you know, his his track
record at Stanford.

Speaker 1 (28:45):
And I thought the assignment was pretty good for him
going to double A and to early on have these
results solid. You can also see there's a big increase currently. Again,
the small sample size is something we have to like,
you know, it's a caveat to it, but still you
can still acknowledge that you're seeing the line drive rate
go up, you're seeing the ground ball rate go down,

(29:06):
and those are two really good early signs. You want
to see the ball get up in the air a
lot more. I think that would benefit from I actually think,
I actually think Tommy Troy would really benefit to like
be a mirrored Alex Bregman, Like just get like pulled,
you know, just pull fly balls. Just try to have
a big lawn changle, like eighteen degree lawn changle. Just

(29:27):
get the ball in the air, and like you could
have such I mean, there's like a physical compness that's
actually kind of similar issue to Alex Bregman. You'd love
to see that start to happen. But the thing that
Bregman does is he does he makes a ton of contact,
doesn't strike out. But ironically, that is some of the
early looks of what we're seeing out of Tommy Troy.
Seventeen percent k percentage, the lowest sense complex. When I

(29:48):
saw him in twenty twenty three, he's walking and he's
hitting the ball a ton. So I don't know if
that that's a little too lofty talking about it, but
it's like if there was someone to kind of start
to mirror that game after, you'd love to see it
be Bregman for a guy Tommy to optimize his skill set.

Speaker 2 (30:02):
I see the body comp I was pretty shocked, you know,
when Bregman's kind of abs measurement came back at five
to eleven, I would I would put a lot of
money on him not actually being five ft eleven.

Speaker 1 (30:13):
I do the same with Tommy Troy. What is Tommy
Troy listed that nine? Okay, yeah, no, then they are
being accurate. He's he's a good five to nine.

Speaker 2 (30:21):
Yeah yeah, I mean I think every hitter should try
to put the ball in the air to the pull side,
you know, as often as they can.

Speaker 3 (30:27):
I think if he's.

Speaker 2 (30:27):
Able to do that, maybe he plays above that that frame.
He's pushing a lot of stuff right now, but at
least it's on a line. You know that makes me wonder,
you know, just how ready he was for double A.

Speaker 3 (30:39):
I think that was a little.

Speaker 2 (30:40):
Bit aggressive, given how hurt he was, but maybe they felt,
you know, that stint in the Arizona Fall League got
him right, and pushing him to the Texas League was
totally fine.

Speaker 1 (30:49):
What what is the rank range? So it's kind of
the same thing, like where do you think from a
rank perspective he sits? And do you think anything early on?
Is like, hey, we should maybe potentially start to make
an early move on Tommy Troy.

Speaker 3 (31:01):
Yeah. I mean he never really left my watch list.

Speaker 2 (31:04):
He was in the maybe the first crop of consideration
for the one hundred, but wasn't a particularly strong candidate
given his twenty twenty four. So I would be comfortable
putting him aywhere between one fifty and two fifty right
now and be ready to pull the trigger if we
start to see him pull the ball in there more often.

Speaker 1 (31:19):
That's about the general space I have him too. I've
got him, I want to say, maybe like in the
one thirties, So like I'm kind of in that same
general space now here is I get bullish sometimes on
some players or just stubborn. Stubborn has a better way
to put it. And this player, I've been relatively stubborn
even though they were still sruggling. They were very much struggling.

(31:41):
That player is Drew Jones. Drew Jones had some struggles
last season in the early on set ended up bouncing
back having a two seventy five average, six homers, twenty
one stolen bases. We'd love to see it. He was
walking a bit more k's were up okay. This season
he goes to High that an a ball by the way,

(32:01):
and he spent the majority of the season there and
was healthy. That's probably actually the biggest thing to take
away is like I saw Drew Jones again very early on.
If everyone remembers, I got to hang with him at
the Top's house a couple of years ago and did it.
Love him, great interview with him. Just a really smart kid.
But like he was injured, his swing got really weird.
If you go back and look on my timeline, you'll

(32:23):
see this really weird clicky thing he was doing in
his swing. And there were some stuff from some people
I heard that were like, oh my god, like we're
really worried about him, maybe near the organization. And then
it was just health health health. Well, last year he
stayed healthy, he got out there, he had some good results.
So now let's move over to this year again, going
to high A, moving up a level. He's now hitting

(32:43):
three eighty five. He's got not quite a three four
five slash, his slug is at four sixty two, but
a four fifty five obp. His strikeouts are down a
tiny bit, double digit walk rate. He's scoring tons of
run runs, he's stealing some bases. What's your take on
Drew Jo Jones and ranking Drew Jones or Tommy Troy
from a fantasy perspective, which guy would you rather have?

Speaker 3 (33:06):
Great? Great question.

Speaker 2 (33:08):
I think between Troy and Jones, maybe just because Troy
feels a little bit closer right now, I would lean
that way. I also I have a little bit of
a hang up with his with Jones swing operation. It
just it is not visually appealing. It's a little bit
hard for me to buy into guys where I don't
love the film. And he's putting the ball on the

(33:30):
ground a lot. I think he's just such a great athlete.
You see the Babbitt figures on screen. So we're five
hundred right now. He's just running out a lot of
ground balls. He's putting it on the ground sixty percent
of the time after doing so fifty seven percent of
the time last year. I think he is a much
better athlete than Tommy Troy. And usually I like to
bet on athletes, but I don't like the swing right now.

Speaker 1 (33:51):
Yeah, there is something that I think there was like
the sky high potential when he was drafted, of like
when he starts to tap into that power, you know,
even at that power, if he was a fifteen thirty guy,
like we could really live with it. I think we
are moving a little bit closer into maybe him becoming
a much better real life player than he is as
a fantasy player, because he's an A plus defender. And
I'm just telling you right now that defense is going

(34:12):
to get him to the major leagues. It's without you know,
there are some guys are there are plenty of guys
we look at and we're like, ooh, you know, is
this guy? Are they all going to get to the majors,
But Drew Jones is going to get to the majors.
His defense is going to get him there. The positive
is the bad is starting to come along. But to
your point, ground balls are still pretty high, the swing
is still in this reworked process, and there are still
some adjustments to go through. So how far off is

(34:34):
Drew Jones? I'm going to predict he's got to be
like post is he post two hundred ish?

Speaker 2 (34:38):
To you?

Speaker 1 (34:38):
If you had Tommy right between the one to fifty range, I.

Speaker 2 (34:42):
Was gonna say around two fifty is something that I'd
be comfortable with, and if I saw a mechanical adjustment,
I would be willing to jump in pretty quickly. Again,
because you said, I think fantasy players really underestimate the
value of a glove and what that can do to
keep you in the lineup once you do debut.

Speaker 3 (35:00):
Half of this game is playing time, right, Yeah.

Speaker 2 (35:03):
And he's such a good athlete with a huge floor
with that glove that if he makes some mechanical adjustments
and starts lifting the ball, I think this could you know,
the value could really jump here.

Speaker 3 (35:14):
But around two fifty is about what I'm comfortable with
right now.

Speaker 1 (35:17):
Yeah, the one thing I guess the slight push is
like I think there has been some mechanical change. His
swing literally looks different. But to your main point to
it is like he's still kind of hitting the ball
into the ground and we're not seeing it. Something that
would be super valuable. We just we don't all have
access to. Is like with Savant, you can now look
at not just like actual bat tracking, but we can

(35:37):
look at like, you know, foot placement. We can look
at where you know, the foot is pre pitch on
the load position, Like it'd be really interesting to kind
of see the path of where he's at and kind
of dissect that, but we don't have some of that information.
I still think there's a lot in the tank for
Drew Jones. I agree with you that, like, obviously he's
further than Tommy Troy, but I wonder if like the

(35:58):
fantasy impact could be bigger if he starts getting more
aggressive on the base paths. If he is at least
a fifteen homer guy, We'll have to watch for it.
But the big positive is he's not a nothing burger
anymore because he is hitting over three hundred, and he's
starting to jump into some people's minds.

Speaker 2 (36:12):
Here.

Speaker 1 (36:14):
Next up on the list is another big prospect. He's
actually I didn't even know this until this past year.
He is Manny Machado's like tutor, or Machado is his tutor,
like you know, he's he's training and working with him
in the offseason. I did not know this. I got
to see him a little bit while he was rehabbing
with the Reds, and he is to me the most

(36:37):
common player when someone says everyone is under ranking this guy,
I would say that Sal Stewart is probably near the
tippy top of that that you always see that. Sal
Stewart with those injuries, had eighty games last year in
High A, hit two seventy nine, eight homers, ten stolen bases.
This year he's up at Double A. This year he's

(36:58):
in three seventy five. Right now, he's got a three
four six slash, two homers for stolen bases. Sala is
kind of a big boy. I don't think he's going
to be even though he's stole fifteen and ten over
the last two seasons, when he gets to the majors.
If he's a ten stolen base guy like God blessed.
But I don't think that's really where it's going to be.
But low strikeouts, decent walk gets on basis always maintain

(37:21):
a high average, does not strike out whatsoever, and he's
still in the process of just you know, well, being
healthy and learning to hit for power. So where do
you think Sal Stuart belongs in the rank range? And
do you think Sal Stewart is going to be more of,
let's say, an Alec Bohm type who makes a lot
of contact but doesn't generate a lot of you know,
fly balls and get the ball in there, or do

(37:42):
you think he is going to tap in find that
because his skill set and body type and swing looks
like a guy that's going to get a thirty plus homers.

Speaker 2 (37:51):
Yeah, I mean I like Sal Stewart. I don't know
that I necessarily fall in the cohurt that is under
ranking him. Again, he was one of the last cuts
of the book. Again, I'm talking about out to one
hundred and fifty. I'm a points league guy too, so
I like this kind of profile. He's almost walked more
than he's struck out in his minor league career. I
think the big thing has been health and just seeing

(38:11):
him on the field, especially now in Double A, is
really exciting. I don't have some of the underlying data.
It's you know, it's been two years since he was
in the Florida State League, so tougher for me to
gauge that the ground ball rate is is. I mean,
it's only eight games, but it's much better than where
it was last year, which is exciting. If he can

(38:33):
get the ball in the air, I do think there's
more you know, juice in the tank than the eight
home runs he had in eighty games last year. It's
like a fifteen home run pace, you know, over one
hundred and sixty two game season. I think twenty is possible.
I'm just excited that he's healthy.

Speaker 1 (38:48):
Okay, so takeout proximity Alex Frielan or South Stewart. You
said both of those guys missed the cut. I'm going
to say Tommy Troy's obvious. It sounds like he's further away.
Who would you rather have your investment and but don't
think about like, you know, Alex Freeland coming up just
over a three year span right now, would you rather
have this investment in sal Stewart or Freeland.

Speaker 2 (39:10):
I think Alex Freeland. I've been a fan for a while.
I was watching him pretty closely when he broke out.
I think he's a better athlete. I think the future
lineup is better. I think some of the underlying for
Freeland is really exciting. And if he has to move
down down the defensive spectrum, it's going to be pushing
over to third base rather than you know, sticking out

(39:31):
a corner. So I would go with Freeland personally, but
I think that's kind of coin flippy.

Speaker 1 (39:38):
You know, it's a trippy too. This is like another
guy we're you know, we're talking about Freeland and kind
of be un blocked. Like the Reds are just a
corner infielders of the wazoo. They can be done with them.
So there is something that there's probably a slow roll process.
I also think, you know, based on I think it
was like a wrist injury because I was at this
one game and it got it was like one hundred

(39:58):
million degrees and you know, was during rookie ball or
maybe it was his instructs or something, and I remember
sal was just working through it and he and I
think he heard his wrist on that one and he
it was just this weird process of that could have
slowed stuff down. He's got this big, healthy season that
I'm not even sure it's outlandish to say. If he
keeps rolling and maybe there's some struggles or injuries with

(40:18):
the Reds, maybe he could get up. But he's kind
of blocked, like there's a little bit of a block
of like where are they going to be able to
get him in? But I do know this organization loves him.
I'm pushing him up and he's off to like an
incredibly incredibly hot start.

Speaker 2 (40:31):
Yeah this, Yeah, but the health note on Stuart what
was really scary and what ultimately left him off was
it was a wrist tendon injury.

Speaker 3 (40:40):
That's what it was. Yeah, at every word in that
sentence makes me uncomfortable.

Speaker 2 (40:44):
So you know that he is playing well, even if
it's through eight games, I think is massively encouraging.

Speaker 1 (40:50):
The next player is one of my favorites. Everybody else
hates him. I feel like I feel like it's pretty
fair to just do that and say that, and we'll leave.

Speaker 3 (40:58):
It at that.

Speaker 1 (40:59):
Spencer Jones and I got a very specific reason, not
even just from the production I want to ask you about,
but I am annually higher on Spencer Jones than any
other single person in the industry. I am absolutely in
love with the potential tool set. Six foot seven, two
hundred and thirty plus pound outfielder who steals bases and
is still working to tap into his power. But the

(41:22):
clearest of clear issues has been he's got a major
WIF strikeout issue that has always been there. This season,
he's hitting two ninety so far, very short sample sized,
three homers, three stolen bases. You love it. Is he
striking out less? Hell? No, he's still striking out thirty
six percent of the time. Is he walking more? He is,
He's walking fifteen percent of the time. But here is

(41:43):
my reasoning behind bringing this up, outside of the obvious
things that we're going to talk about with him. You
know you will either not the strikeouts will be to
a level that you hate, zone contact rate will be
to a level you hate, or you're going to just
fall in love with the tool set and the potential maturation.
But an interview at the beginning of the minor league
season that he said he is working through torpedo bats.

(42:06):
He ordered some torpedo bats and he had some swing
analysis that showed where he was making contact with the
bat was an element that could be optimized by using
a torpedo bat. So that opens things up. So you
hear him say that, and then what you see him
having a great season so far, But he is repeating

(42:27):
a level and the torpedo bats is not going to
help strikeouts. So maybe that can help some of the
quality of contact that is made, but it is not
going to cure those strikeouts. I thought it was really
interesting about a guy like him having this swing analysis
to optimize that tool set because he is legitimately a
thirty thirty potential guy those stolen. He's still forty three
bases in twenty twenty three. He's six foot seven, two

(42:49):
hundred and forty pounds, He's still twenty five bases last
year with seventeen homers, and he has a massive, massive
contact and strike issue. Yet the batting averages have stayed
two sixty or higher, well, two fifty nine, I guess
last year at double A two fifty nine and high
at every single level. But it's gonna up being a problem.
So all of my pontificating about Spencer Jones to hopefully

(43:12):
set up a good scenario or you will knock it
down like Djenga, knock it down or set it up.
What do you think about Spencer Jones hot start, torpedo
bats and absolute any potential growth out of him.

Speaker 2 (43:24):
I don't know if I'm gonna knock it down necessarily
I have. I think my grand theory of Spencer Jones
is one, He's an eighty grade size adjusted athlete. He
is an absolute freak. Somebody this size should not be
that fast. It is inhuman to watch in person. It
is like legitimately terrifying to see a man that size

(43:45):
move like that.

Speaker 3 (43:46):
Two.

Speaker 2 (43:48):
You know, we talk a lot about age to level, right,
one of the big markers in a lot of these
projection tools or player evel tools is age to level.
Spencer Jones doesn't map neatly there because he pitched in
college and had Tommy John and he's only been a
full time hitter for a few years. So I'm not
necessarily surprised that a guy with a strike zone as

(44:08):
big as his and a shorter track record, you know,
than the average twenty three almost twenty four year old
you know would have at this time, is struggling a
little bit with the third thing, I'll say, is there's
kind of a cliff where contact doesn't matter, you know
so much. I think of it as a sliding scale
of damage on contact, and he hits the crap out

(44:28):
of the wall. So once you're at a certain point
when the contact is palatable, it just doesn't matter anymore.
So to your argument, the ceiling on this is outrageous.
If he were just striking out thirty percent of the time,
I don't know how he's not a top.

Speaker 1 (44:44):
One hundred prospect.

Speaker 2 (44:45):
I just don't think there's a world where if he
gets that to thirty percent or below, he's not That said,
it doesn't look good. The approach isn't good, the bat
to ball isn't good. There's not, you know, a lot
in the track record to say that it's going to
get better. But I think people underestimate player development apparatuses,
and the Yankees catch a lot of flak for how

(45:07):
few kind of homegrown bats. They've had huge breakout stars
outside of the Aaron Judges of the world, who might
actually be a good, good physical comp But you know,
the revelation of the torpedo bat, I think is a
good peek behind the curtain of just how much work
these teams are doing to find an edge, and I

(45:29):
wouldn't put it out of the question that he figures
out how to put bat on ball more often.

Speaker 1 (45:33):
I would love to see Spencer Jones spend an off
season with Aaron Judges hitting coach. You know, we made
a big thing about Kyen Paris and the changes that
he made. Yeah, you know, I mean if he's doing
bat analysis and his swing and the contact point, you'd
also like to have just full on and what is
happening in swing analysis. The weird thing is, you know
a lot of these guys there's a very big hands

(45:53):
off thing like whatever they're doing in house. Because I'm
just kind of preaching to what you're talking about with
player development. A lot of like these minor leaguers. It's
amazing when you talk to them about like what the
team doesn't have them do, and you know how they
don't take care of minor leaguers and what they don't know.
I've always cited this Curtis Mead when he came to
the AFL. You know, this is coming off of COVID,

(46:15):
coming off of the Australian League, coming off of a
great minor league season, and it was like I was like,
oh man, you know you went off in Australia, you
came back. The Rays are great for their player development,
Like what have they had you doing and working on?
And he's like nothing. He's like nothing, Like they didn't
they didn't like sit him down and talk about like
his approach or we want to do that. There's just
nothing whatsoever. So what I'm getting at is like you

(46:37):
kind of forget that that happens, and then as these
guys get to get really close and the major league
team gets a handle on them, then you will start
to see some of them. I mean, look at Karen Parris.
You know it took this long and Karen Parris had to,
I think, go outside the organization to do it. So
I guess what I'm getting at is this seems like
a guy you would love to have a little bit
more hyper focused because I think he's a player that
is optimized for that Yankees Yankee stadium, that right field

(47:01):
a great home ballpark. If the torpedo bat is going
to generate more flyballs, We're not seeing the flyballs come
up you yet so far, but the ground ball rate
came down a little bit. Line drives are going up
a little bit. That might be speaking to some torpedo
bat that I hold out hope that never will he
be a absolute superstar. But listen, he's a guy that
if he can hit two forty, I really think legitimately

(47:23):
he could be like twenty five, twenty five, thirty thirty.
But there's still a long way to go. But I
found it very interesting that he talked about the torpedo
bat and some changes are already happening, at least on
the early set of the double A season.

Speaker 2 (47:34):
For him, he's an outlier, He's a freak. I'll take
some of the long tail positive outcomes over kind of
a who home, you know, average major leaguer. A lot
of the time, I think it's healthy to have some
exposure to players like this.

Speaker 1 (47:48):
Yeah, that's a great point. That's a very very good point.
That you can play it super floor across the board.
But I do think having a mixture of a guy
that has this enormous ceiling not being maybe too overly invested,
that it's it's like you're trading away these great prospects
like you probably don't want to probably trade a guy
like Alex Freeland ironically for a guy like Spencer Jones
because of the floor, but like, get it. I would

(48:08):
love if if someone is evaluation, I'm going to ask you,
and I'm gonna I'm gonna guess a guy like Spencer
Jones for you is post one point fifty.

Speaker 3 (48:15):
Yes, yeah, were around two hundred.

Speaker 1 (48:18):
Okay, vastly higher for me, but like you would be
the prime person that I would try to probably tackle
for a guy like Spencer Jones because if if you're
a two hundred and I'm inside the top one hundred,
if we met somewhere in the middle around that one
twenty five, I think that type of exposure would make
a lot of sense and I would jump on it.
One more hitter and then we're gonna hit a couple
pitchers here. Uh, spending some time with beck Upper Beck

(48:41):
over at the Dynasty, Dugout, Louis Payania. Everybody has been
very excited for the Jesus Monday. I got to see
Jesus Monday a couple times out here in extended spring training.
Very selfishly wish he was not in a ball so
I could see him in Uh, I'm sorry, minor league
spring chraining as where I saw him, I wish I
could be seeing him an extended right now in rookie

(49:02):
ball and just keep him to myself and keep the
videos to myself. But we're not getting that, and he
is starting to come alive. But a guy that has
been alive this entire time is Luis Panna, the untalked
about Ish prospect that was sent to Carolina and so
far he's hitting three seventy five this season. I'm sorry,

(49:22):
is ababb at three forty three with a four to
forty two OBP. He has a higher walk rate than
strikeout rate fourteen percent walk to nine percent strikeout. A
quick stop to say that this is coming off a
Dominican summer league where he had a three to ninety
three average in forty four games, a sub ten percent
strikeout rate, and stole thirty nine bases in forty four games.

(49:44):
So it's really tough to take like Dominican summer league
stuff and translate it over. Well, guess what, he's hitting
three forty three. He's got a sub ten percent k
rate and he has stolen ten bases in eight games.
He's flying on the base paths, he's making really good contact.
He's making some hard contact as well. His home rate
a big or maybe it's not listed. I thought maybe

(50:04):
it was some old minor league. Now this is actually
confusing me. Maybe it happened today. Actually, that why I'm
not seeing it. But there's a big homer that was
shared of Louis Pania, So I'm throwing this back out
here to you. Louise Penia's early start looks incredibly promising,
low strikeout, high average. There are some evy stuff that's
out there in incredible stolen bases. What is your take

(50:25):
on Luis Pena's rank value and his early production.

Speaker 2 (50:29):
I am a fan of the Milwaukee Brewers, and usually
when they take a guy from the DSL and PLoP
them in single A without any you know, intervening stop
in complex, it pays to pay attention. I think Jesus
Made has been getting all of the oxygen in the room,
and Painia is not far off, especially with some of
the underlying going on here. He's chasing less than twenty

(50:51):
percent of the time, so it's good decisions. He's hitting
the ball extraordinarily hard. Again, it's it's a very small sample,
it's eight games, but that even ninety is up over
one hundred and six miles an hour.

Speaker 3 (51:02):
That is HEYESUS made.

Speaker 2 (51:03):
Territory and he plays with the throttle wide open. Thirty
nine stolen bases in forty four games last year, ten
and eight this year. I think he has to be
on your radar. I think he has to be picked
up yesterday or you're you know, you're not gonna have
a chance. And I would have him firmly inside my
top one hundred as one of those upside flyers.

Speaker 3 (51:21):
Uh, you know, he's just really fun to watch.

Speaker 1 (51:24):
Yeah, And I just put up here, So that was
my confusion. I forgot Brews Player Development a great account
to follow this. This almost homer, I believe it ended
up being a double was a homer. And a high,
high percentage of ballparks he hit at the top of
the wall was my confusion. And they pointed out four
forty two OVP eighty percent contact rate. He's got a

(51:45):
one oh six ninetieth percentile EV and a nineteen percent
chase And the video here is this just crushed the
center field. This is what I was talking about, and
it just bangs off this really really high wall and
Luis Pana is immensely fat and he's putting up good
EV numbers and everybody is talking about our boy Jesus made,

(52:06):
but I think Louise Paine is pushing into that territory.
So let me ask you this based on a lot
of the guys that we've talked about right now, you know,
we've we've spent your jones' kind a little lower on
you talk about Tommy Troy, Alex Freeland, Like, what what
do you think the path is for Louise Painney. You said, like,
you can't not have him right now, but what is
the aggressiveness for a guy if you he's really far away?

(52:27):
Though the Brewers do a good job of kind of
pushing through. What do you think you are pushing aside
for a guy like Louise Payne. Are you're dropping a
top one to twenty five prospect or the top maybe
even the top one hundred prospect? Is he top one
hundred to you?

Speaker 2 (52:41):
Yeah, I would be treating him like a top fifty
sixty prospect.

Speaker 3 (52:45):
Right now, and I don't think it's for.

Speaker 2 (52:48):
Necessarily the purpose of grostering him for four years before
he makes his debut. You can capitalize on this much
quicker than that I typically use. You know, these standouts
in the DSL complex, A ball as trade chips to
get something on my major League grosser and go from there.
So value doesn't have to be realized five years down
the road. It can be you know, in six weeks

(53:09):
from now if he's still playing well. So you know,
there's a lot of players I would jump over to
take a swing at Louise Payney right now.

Speaker 1 (53:18):
Eighty one point seven percent contact percentage right now, very
very impressive with great on bass skills. Love you know
what it is. You know, it is a weird comp
but like his profile feels very Heraldo per Domi in
that he doesn't strike out and he's walking a bunch,
except there might be impactful counting stats like he Perdomo

(53:38):
doesn't steal and doesn't hit anything like that. But once
upon a time, Perdomo was actually kind of a prominent
like Homer and hitter and like rookie. But I did
one of my first interviews on this show in the
first handful I did at that time. It was a
skype interview, by the way, and I totally remember this
was a Christian Robinson, and I remember him kind of
being like, how do we do this with Skype? And

(53:59):
my god, I don't worry Abot. I got it before
stream Yard and I had asked him. I was like,
who is a Who's a guy that you play with
that nobody knows that they should And he was like
Heraldo Perdomo. And you know, Haraldo Perdomo has been to
a World Series, has got a contract extension before Christian
has gotten up for many reasons. But I'm saying all
this to say that there is like a pro file,

(54:20):
like if Haraldo Perdomo had a bigger impact, he would
be an immensely valuable player. And you said points Leagues two.
The low strikeouts in high contact has got to speak
to you for Pania.

Speaker 3 (54:32):
So a couple thoughts there.

Speaker 2 (54:33):
One, I drafted Heraldo Perdomo and a dynasty startup in
twenty twenty one, so longtime fan. The other thing I'll
say about that is Luis Payana is probably not the
defender that Heraldo Perdomo is.

Speaker 3 (54:48):
He's been a butcher so far.

Speaker 2 (54:51):
I think he's almost certainly a second baseman just given
his size and his actions right now, it doesn't look
very great. And then kind of the the third tangent
would be I just love the player development Twitter account.
It's a great follow, but It always makes me laugh
because they tweet like an agent. It's always the data
you can't get your hands on. It's always pumping guys up.
It's uh, it's just funny.

Speaker 1 (55:12):
Well, you don't get any of that. That's the thing.
Like you would love to get like more of a
balanced It's like you know the news. It's like, you
love like a balance in what they're sharing. But you're
one hundred percent right. It's like if anyone's popping. They
did it with Jackson Curio, they did it with Jesus Made.
They're just like, hey, by the way, look we have this.
You don't have this. And it's like all we want
in the world, by the way, is like please give

(55:33):
us this data. They just sprinkle it with us, like
here's some Triple A stuff and like here's a little
bit of like the Florida State League. It's like, can
we just have all the data you know for a
baseball give it to Baseball Savant. Let them pay you. Honestly,
if Baseball Savant had to have like a little subscription
based thing, I'd pay it get that data and that
we could have that data with Savant, you would pay it.

(55:54):
I would pay it and a lot of people would
pay it if we could have that, but unfortunately, this
is why we have to follow these accounts.

Speaker 2 (56:01):
I think we're maybe, and you know, maybe this is
just being optimistic, but I think we're maybe a year
or two away from public statcasts across all.

Speaker 3 (56:09):
Of the minor leagues.

Speaker 2 (56:10):
I'm hopeful because just being able to tap into a
little bit of that would be so so helpful for
player evaluation.

Speaker 1 (56:18):
To your point, I think the reason behind that is
if ABS is going to be adopted across the board,
something that you have to do in the minor leagues.
They all have implemented pitch clocks, extended spring training today,
what's the thing that's right behind home plate? You used
to see just the cameras and there's little white tables
and chairs, and there's a big ass clock they put

(56:38):
behind there. But my point is is like as they
adopt some of these new rules, they're going to adopt
it across the board down to the minors. So if
you start to put these systems in at every minor
league stop so these guys are trained for it, you
also have the access to all of this data. So
if everybody is spending it and they're getting maybe subsidized
by MLB, they end up being something. To your point,

(57:00):
that's very optimistic. I'm not sure we're a year or
even two away, but I do think within the next
five years we could have that. I hope you're right, though,
I really hope you're right.

Speaker 2 (57:09):
You're hitting on the driving force there, which is if
they're going to do abs all through the miners, they're
going to have to outfit these stadiums with hawkeye, and
once that data is churning. I don't know that we're
too far off of getting that data, but I'm an optimist.

Speaker 1 (57:23):
Yeah, maybe it'll come with the next bargeting agreement. As
long as you know we have baseball after two thousand
and six or two twenty six.

Speaker 3 (57:30):
I'm trying not to think about it.

Speaker 1 (57:31):
Yeah, I know, I'm saying, all right, let's talk about
a few pitchers here. I am very enamored with Nolan MacLean,
another one of those like two way players that's out there,
who has one of just just the nastiest sliders out
There's an absolutely disgusting slider, really great fastball. Early on,
we've got two starts, we've got high K percentage numbers,

(57:52):
fourteen strikeouts to only three walks over nine innings. That's
a fourteen K per nine one era. We've got even
some x FIP numbers that are still under three. You know,
the process could feel like it's like a tiny bit slower.
He's repeating double A because there was like, you know,
that developmental two way side of it. But I feel

(58:13):
like we're starting to move into a territory where he's
going to get pushed. What do you think, in a
world of so many amazing young pitching prospects that are
out there, some are popping, Nolan McLean really looks like
a guy that's on a higher trajectory. What is your
early evaluation of his starts and what do you think
his rank looks like.

Speaker 2 (58:31):
It's reminiscent to me, and this is not a comp
I have to say that first, but it's reminiscent to
me of the path that Bubble Chandler took as a
two way player who then focused on pitching. It's a
reverse Spencer Jones if you will, yeah, and you can
tell watching him it's really loud stuff. I think I
can make a pretty coherent argument that his slider is

(58:52):
the best in organized ball below the major league level,
but the kind of the repeatability and the command and
control aren't necessarily there. The execution isn't great. I've watched
both of his starts this year, and the stuff kind
of jumps off the screen. But it makes me wonder
if I think it goes one of two directions. He

(59:12):
figures out how to repeat and put the ball where
he wants it to or at least be around the zone,
sort of the raised philosophy of throw it down the
middle and just let it eat, or he doesn't and
he's a reliever either way. I think you know, the
ceiling is is pretty big for him.

Speaker 1 (59:28):
So are you putting the relievers side into like how
you're evaluating? So like what what do you think the
general range is as far as fantasy goes for him,
Because it's very tough because I think there's so many
valuable pictures. It's always my argument like we all focus
and everybody wants to pay up for the rightfully, so
I suppose, but like the Bubba Chandler's and the Andrew
painters and stuff, But then there's this market of just

(59:49):
all these just great young pictures that you can absolutely
see moving up the Garland Susana is going up the list,
trey Ya Savage could be a guy that's coming up,
Young Cam KAMMINITTI, Ryan Sloan all the So this is
just collection of all these great pictures that, to varying
degrees might get big hype. Like where does a guy
like McLean fit for you?

Speaker 2 (01:00:09):
I am a huge fan of Ryan Sloan, so of
maybe the names that you listed, I would put Nolan
McLean only behind him.

Speaker 3 (01:00:17):
I have him just outside the top one hundred.

Speaker 2 (01:00:19):
This isn't another thing I said this about, you know,
single a complex dsl any pitching prospect.

Speaker 3 (01:00:26):
I am just more willing to trade.

Speaker 2 (01:00:27):
So if I see a guy with huge stuff or
a big jump in stuff like Quinn Matthews last year
or George Klassen, you know, grabbing my eye in mid
April last year as well, I'm more willing to grab
those guys and see how it pans out and trade
them if need be. I really like the stuff that
I'm seeing from Nolan McLean. I just worry that he's

(01:00:48):
not going to throw enough strikes and he's going to
be a guy that you plug in eighth ninth inning,
which is valuable in roto but you know in points leagues,
you want that innings volume, you want a front end starter.
And you know, for me, any pitching prospect below double
A that hasn't thrown, you know, one hundred innings, it's
a coin flip where they're going to end up long term.

Speaker 1 (01:01:09):
The interesting thing you say about that, though, and it
just popped in my mind, not to say that it'll
be the comp but it's like you look at big
stuff and you worry about strikes in some degrees. That
was like Bubba kind of early on this year. If
you've looked at some of his data, his first start,
he was just all over the place and walking, but
it was just fastball slider, and then the next couple
starts just been fastball slider. There is something to like,
if the pitching development can be on the right side,

(01:01:31):
he might be like a high trajectory guy. So this
next player might kind of fall into a similar range.
Here when you're talking about guys under double A and
you're talking about hype and being able to move, I
kind of agree with you on this, But let's talk
about Durangelo. Durangelo, the switch pitcher, gets a lot of
attention because of the excitement that that generates college arm

(01:01:51):
from last year getting pushed to high A and the
results are pretty interesting. Fourteen high K per nine right
now over seven innings, he's been in three games. He
is walking a lot though mid three era. He's given
up three earned runs. He's walked seven, but he has
struck out twelve. He's got different stuff from different points
to the plate. I worried very very early on from

(01:02:14):
just seeing him and evaluating that there might just be
long term more relief risk in his game than anything else.
Like it is a very cool thing that he can
do on both sides, and I suppose if you can
go full game, full innings, that would be great. But
when you're switching between and you've got different stuff, you
might look at him as more like a long reliever.
You might look at him as like this bridged seven

(01:02:34):
to eight guy that gets you to a closer because
he can switch arms and that's super fun, and you
can tell that there's walk issues. So I guess I've
just got long term worries or questions about like him
as a starting pitcher. But ironically, he just has so
much juice with him right now that I wouldn't be
surprised if you could even push like a top one
hundred ish type of bat for a guy like him.

(01:02:56):
But what's your take on Durangelo's early season?

Speaker 2 (01:02:59):
Durangelo, I mean, he's the most interesting player in minor
league baseball right now. Right I maybe don't worry so
much about relief. I worry about should he be switch pitching?
I think he's much better from the right. And I
wonder about pitching. Is such a delicate art art form
that you know, how long is it going to take

(01:03:20):
for him to figure out how to be a major
league pitcher from both sides? And is he better served
as a starter just throwing from the right. I think
what we're seeing with him struggling around the strike zone
is a little bit of that. It's early, it's not
a lot of innings. Still feeling out how do I
do this as a professional from both sides?

Speaker 3 (01:03:39):
But it worries me.

Speaker 2 (01:03:40):
And I think this about switch hitters too. There are
a number of switch hitters in minor league baseball that
I think might be better off if they just dropped
the switch hitting act.

Speaker 1 (01:03:50):
We see that happen too. We see that with guys.
And also, I feel like you start to see a
little bit. I think it was Luis from GIFO that
did it this year, where like he actually was just
like a different hit or from one side of the plate.
And I always get this wrong, and I think it
was honestly, maybe it was the right handed side. It
doesn't matter whichever one it was. You saw like he
shortened his swing and or he got I think his

(01:04:11):
swing got longer and he got slower from one side
and that was that maybe classical like Luisa Rise, like
low barrel, just get contact on and then the other
side of the plate was more of your pull side
Homer that he switch hitters either need to kind of
have that is, be a focus or just you know,
completely throw it away. But yeah, I mean Durangelo from
the right side, I think it ninety seven, it's like

(01:04:33):
high nineties, and it's like load mid nineties on the
left side. I think it sweeps maybe more on the
left side. So I think he's gonna stick there. I
think I don't think that's going to go anywhere, and
I think maybe it puts a tiny bit into the
into the relief market. But he's kind of a cell
to me right now, Like I think the good early
season started is great. I think there's a little bit

(01:04:54):
of risk, and I think anyone that has him valued up,
like if I could move him for really anybody we've
talked about, like if you would go get Nolan McLain
for Durangelo, I'm doing that.

Speaker 3 (01:05:03):
I would do that too, Okay, cool.

Speaker 1 (01:05:06):
Last one that we're going to talk about was someone
that was on your list that you wanted to talk
about early season strikeouts are their early season production? Is there? Way?
In Linn with the Athletics, we've so far seen two
games pitched, fifteen strikeouts in eight innings, no walks whatsoever.

(01:05:29):
My god, nineteen year old pitching an A ball for
the Athletics hit us hit us back way.

Speaker 2 (01:05:35):
And Lynn was an off cycle international signee that the
A's were pretty tight lipped about. They didn't say much
about how much the signing bonus was. The only real
breadcrumb they gave us was that it was about the
same amount that they promised to Jose Ramos, which was
one point two million dollars and his film is really fun.

(01:05:57):
The usual caveats about a nineteen year old in their
first stateside, you know, fora into professional ball, apply, you know,
if he garners enough hype, I would also say I'm
gonna unload him for something closer to the majors. But
he's kind of a broad shouldered, physically mature nineteen year
old with a pretty good fastball, based mostly in his

(01:06:21):
ability to command it. And I saw some things that
I really like from him, pitching backwards, being in and
around the zone.

Speaker 3 (01:06:27):
Was kind of a bulldog out there.

Speaker 2 (01:06:29):
He was actually a participant for Taiwan in the U
twenty three World Baseball Classic or something to that effect,
similar dominance there. I think it was thirteen innings, no runs,
fourteen strikeouts. This is the only guy that has kind
of scratched that who's the early season pitching breakout? And

(01:06:50):
it's funny enough that it's happening for the A's and
you know there's all these caveats, but you watch him
and you like pitching.

Speaker 3 (01:06:57):
He's a fun one to watch.

Speaker 1 (01:06:59):
So what is that movement been from irrelevance to inside
the top two fifty, three hundred fifty, what has that been?

Speaker 2 (01:07:07):
I think around three hundred is a speculative flyer and
just to see where this goes. This is a I
have one extra prospect spot in a you know, twenty
team league, I'd take a swing. Anything other than that,
I think he's just a watchless guy for now.

Speaker 1 (01:07:21):
So what you're saying is, is my Scott White twenty
team points league dynasty where we have ten minor league spots.
I maybe need to pay attention. Yes, I may need
to pay attention. Well, look away, but they want proximity
a little bit. But way in lind a guy that
you should take a look at, just like Beck upper
Underscore Beck on the Twitter, Beck, you just finished the book.
Talk to us about the prospect book you were working

(01:07:43):
on and you released right before the minor league season.

Speaker 3 (01:07:45):
Yeah, I wrote a book. I've been doing it for
a couple of years now.

Speaker 2 (01:07:48):
I think this was the third iteration and it's by
far the most professional output that I've had.

Speaker 3 (01:07:53):
It's one hundred and eighty four pages. It's my top
one hundred.

Speaker 2 (01:07:56):
It took me like five months, and you know, I
would say I put anywhere between four hundred and five
hundred hours into it.

Speaker 3 (01:08:03):
My wife was not the biggest fan of me writing
this book.

Speaker 1 (01:08:06):
But where did you get to her? Did you did
you just feel like this is to my wife, who.

Speaker 3 (01:08:11):
Yes, that's a big dedication to her. She was a
good proof reader and a good trooper with that.

Speaker 2 (01:08:17):
But it was a lot of Saturdays and Sundays at
a coffee shop for six hours doing all the writing
and editing and graphics and what have you. So it's
up entirely for free on the Dynasty Dugout. I don't
charge for it. It's just something I do as a
passion project. So it's up on the Dynasty Dugout if
anybody wants to check that out. It released about a

(01:08:39):
month ago, so maybe it's already outdated, but you can
catch more of my writing over there on a weekly
basis too.

Speaker 1 (01:08:44):
That's the thing always kills me with writing. Like I
appreciate guys like you. We had this long conversation about
like podcasts and writing and stuff, and I think you're
you know, you're one of the better prospect writers that
exist out there. My it's just my personality and stuff.
Writing is so difficult because it's like the minute I'm done,
I'm like, oh, it's like irrelevant, you know what I mean.

(01:09:04):
I feel like it's irrelevant, And I suppose the same
thing can be said about everything we say here in
the podcast. But then I feel like I haven't put
as much time into it. And also, you know, like
not every great writer is a great podcast or not
every great podcaster is a great writer. I'm a fine writer,
I'm not a great You are a great writer. And
I also have told you I think you are a

(01:09:25):
great podcaster. You're fantastic on the show. You should do
more of it, and if I get a chance, I
will steal you to do more of it, my friend.
So go check out The Dynasty Dugout. You can support
Beck and really follow him on Twitter for anything else
that's going on. Brother, I appreciate you taking the time
talking about these guys with me, and I hope that
you'll talk with me again soon.

Speaker 2 (01:09:43):
Thanks so much for having me, always a great time.
Happy to call you my friend. I'll be back whenever
you want.

Speaker 1 (01:09:48):
Let's do it, and there you go. Shout out again
to Beck. Check him out and his workover on The
Dynasty Dugout did the book. I was telling him, I'm like,
you gotta do a podcasts, dude. I think Beck would
be great on there. I love his willingness. He's just
a great dude. So I liked, I really liked. I
like talking baseball lots of people. I really like talking
baseball with Beck and hopefully you guys enjoyed it as well.

(01:10:08):
Thank you, guys as always for dealing with the movings
of the show. Shows a little bit later this week,
piece of PA, who I co host on Fantasy Pros,
was out all week I was filling in. It was
chaos of work while I was also trying to dip
to some stadiums. So the show's out a tiny bit later,
but we're going to be back at it again next
week breaking down more prospects in this league. Dot com

(01:10:29):
and the Patreon to be on the lookout for the update.
You'll also get the the top two hundred prospect ADP
plus those updates, and the next month we're going to
have not just the top five hundred and the dynasty.
We're going to be adding in some of the draft
stuff because the draft information is really starting to jump up,
so I'm kind of excited to talk about that. Also,
be on the lookout for the streams. Been doing the

(01:10:52):
later week streams focusing a little bit more on prospect
So I'd love to have you Twitch, dot TV, slash
in this league that's public to everybody and then also
you can sometimes check out the YouTube dot com slash
in this league that I'll put some videos out. They're
actually gonna put some of these Beck videos on separately
breaking down the prospects if you end up wanting to

(01:11:12):
check that out. So just appreciate you guys support as
you always do lots of different things. I know I
got a lot of things going on, but as you
guys support, I'm eternally grateful. I really am. You can
follow me on Twitter at is it the Welsh and
on the Instagram at is it the Welsh. I hope
you guys have a fantastic week and I will talk
to you again right here on Prospect one.

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Episode 396 - Prospect Reports with Beck of Dynasty Dugout

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Episode 396 - Prospect Reports with Beck of Dynasty Dugout