Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
In this league podcast that word present Prospect one. So
Fantasy prospect Podcast Prospect one with your host Chris Wells.
This is the Fantasy Baseball prospect podcast. This is Prospect one.
I'm your host, Chris Welsh. You can find on the
(00:21):
socials at is it the Welsh Twitter and Instagram, and
over at in this League dot com that is the
Patreon where the top five hundred prospect ranks live top
four hundred Dynasty got amateur ranks for the upcoming draft
and an update coming very soon. But you want to
check it out, go to in this League dot com.
You can support me on Patreon. In this League dot
(00:42):
com that is how you get access to the stuff
and the things, and I appreciate you very much. Hello friends,
and welcome back to Prospect one. Today. I am going
to be talking about ten prospects on the rise. There
is so much to talk about in the land of
prospects right now, new graduations, Guys that have come off
(01:02):
the prospect list, Guys that are ready to come off
the prospect list. I kind of mentioned that a little bit,
but in the world of prospect ranks, something I try
to do that you can see on my prospect list
is I've got a ranks by the season and how
they've moved through the season, and then over the last
rank update, so you get boot both of those little
charts that are on there, and there are tons of
(01:24):
players that take these big jumps. We're definitely in a
space now where sample sizes feel a lot better. Guys
holding things for longer to maybe make that big boost,
or even players that didn't quite get maybe some of
the early respect I tend to not go ballistic about
some of the early production, for better or for worse.
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You know, sometimes they are guys that hold it through
the season and it's like, whoops, we were a little
bit behind. And sometimes people I think make some instant
quick reactions that it's like, whoops, we shouldn't have gone
quite there. So whatever you consider that. But my point
is is there are guys that are are making jumps
that I think it's making a lot more sense right now.
Even if there's a struggle, there's actually a prospect we're
(02:05):
going to talk about that has made a big jump,
but is having a horrifically bad June. But they've you know,
they've held it. Last couple of games have actually kind
of bounced back. But there are a lot of guys
that are making movement on the ranks, and there's a
lot of guys that are getting a lot of public attention,
and maybe even a few that are about to. These
are ten players that have had massive moves in my ranks,
(02:28):
guys that deserve a little bit more conversation, not to
say necessarily that other guys haven't, but I'll tell you, you know,
like as I stare at this list of players that
we're going to talk about, these guys all have made
some important moves, and I'll tell you some of them
are pretty low. I'm looking, there's well one, two, they're
like three four complex level guys. One has actually moved up.
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So those are lower guys that have made some more
dramatic moves. And then there's a couple other players that
have moved into just really significant positions. But I will
tell you these are not like guys that have moved
into a top ten or anything like that. These are
just some of the biggest, most dramatic rank movers that
probably are on your radars, and I'm gonna talk about
them today. I will tell you the you know, the
(03:13):
ranks themselves are really kind of positioning themselves in a
weird spot. It always happens. It's like one or two
times into the year. I feel like it's like the
first month and then there's like a halfway point and
then maybe it's the end of the season where you
look and you're like, oh, there are some dramatic changes
that are coming. Because as I'm looking at like my
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top ten, there are four players that are on the
relative cusp of coming off. So that's going to make
a pretty dramatic move to who's going to jump into
the top ten and what you know, the top one,
two or three players are going to because as of
right now, the number one and two players on my
prospect list are both in the majors. Number four is
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also in the majors. So Roman Anthony, Jack Kagleon, and
Nick Kurtz they're all inside my top four. They're all
going to come off probably by All Star break. I
guess I'm not looking at like the exacts of plate
appearances and how it matches. There's a possibility like maybe
Roman Anthony doesn't but CAGs needs just under one hundred
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at bats for him to graduate. Kurtz is gonna graduate
probably by the beginning of next week, and then Anthony
Anthony is the one that might kind of still be
on there, but you're gonna have like a a real
new set. And that's actually kind of what I'm getting
at here, is like, as a couple guys Christian Campbell
have graduated, who are our last couple graduations in that
(04:37):
top ten? We had Christian Campbell or arguable top twenty,
even guys like Matt Shaw, cam Smith obviously Christian Campbell,
and God, I feel like I'm forgetting somebody as I'm
looking through this. Jason Deminguez had gone. There's always been
someone that was like easy in the wings. Roman Anthony
(04:58):
became a default. I think how Caglione has worked himself
like that one has jumped up. What I'm saying is
is I feel like there's gonna be a new guard
of prospects. And sometimes this happens where it's like guys
come off and you feel really good about the next guy.
Not that I don't feel good, but the next three
guys that would be or four, let's say they're all
(05:22):
really young. As a matter of fact, three of the
four would be nineteen or younger would be on the
top one hundred. That's not a bad thing necessarily, but
is it Chalk? They're kind of far away. Only one
of these players is at double A, so it's gonna
be some combination post futures game of like Jesus made,
Max Clark, Leo dev ree Sebastian Walcott. That's probably your
(05:46):
Chalk top four prospects, and I it might be kind
of unanimous, like maybe not. I think there's a couple
other guys pinning where you're at. I think Connor Griffin,
Luis Pania, Kevin McGonagall, Zyer Hope. I think those guys
are also going to be in that discussion. I'm probably
a little bit higher on like Bryce Eldridge, Jjo Weatherhold,
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and I'm not giving up on Bizana like most others
seem to be. But that is the crew of I
guess what I'd give you one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten. Oh,
that's like eleven. So that's like essentially I think the
eleven best hitters. And then maybe there's an argument of
like does Celsten or Basio. Maybe Besio goes in there.
So if you're in like a twelve team league, that's
(06:28):
your top twelve hitters. But it does feel different. That's
a different feel of a crew. There's tons of upside,
there's not quite enough proximity, and we'll have to wait,
what does proximity look like like? For me? Eldridge has
the best proximity of any of these players. None of
the rest of those guys are going to see the
majors this year or or graduate from the list like
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that's chock. The only guy that I truly think can
come off that list is Eldridge for the rest of
the season. So it's really going to be about like
the if there are any other closer proximity guys that
can move up, and I'm not so sure that that happens.
So all I'm saying is is like it's an interesting
time right now of what prospect lists are gonna look like,
(07:11):
of how you're gonna want adjust the list, And I
know it's gonna be combinations of probably gonna just be
it's gonna be like Walcott or made That's probably what
it's gonna look like for the most part. But you know,
where will people put payin you? Where will Connor Griffin
set out? Kevin mcgonagill is another player. You know, I'm
not talking about him in the top ten, but he
has made are the top ten biggest movers. But to
(07:33):
be fair, Kevin McGonagall has made a very dramatic move
of players inside the top fifty. Let me look here
in my top fifty, he has the second biggest jump
from rank over rank, and the second call it the
(07:58):
call it like the third biggest jump. I'm sorry, I'm
just looking at this as McGonagall. No, I guess season over.
So I was gonna say from the from a season perspective,
I was thinking he made one of the biggest jumps.
He actually didn't from the full season, but from rank
to rank is where I finally pushed him up into
the heavy teens, and he's like a top ten guy.
(08:19):
By the way. From giving you the names on the season.
In the top fifty, the biggest movers up were Luis Pania,
Jacob Misearowski and Travis Sikora, who I probably will talk about,
and Tyson Lewis. Those are the guys that probably had
the most numerical jump that are inside my top fifty.
Now from season to the season start over, but from
(08:40):
the last update, mcgonagall's number two, and deservedly so. He's
one of those guys that's going to push the envelope
for a lot of people just because of the hit tool.
He was injured, he missed time. Probably gonna see him
in the AFL. You know, I don't know if they're
comfortable with that amount of mistime. The big counting stats
aren't huge, but the bat is three thirty three average
(09:02):
and eighty four bats, four thirty four OBP, almost a
thousand ops. It's going ballistic. He's got thirteen doubles. For perspective,
Buddy hit sixteen doubles last year in seventy four games.
He's got thirteen doubles in twenty three games so far
this year. Future power projection, pretty good launch angle he
puts on the ball, makes fantastic contact, really good decision making.
(09:24):
He has more walks than strikeouts. That's the making of
like a top ten prospect. He won't quite default into
my top ten off of these graduations that I talked about,
but I will say I think he's in a clump
of hitters. If you want to value him over Bazana
right now, I guess you can. You can do it.
(09:45):
I still think Bizana can be a really elite hitter,
but he is not exciting to a lot of people
right now, throwing JJ Weatherhold ironically talking about like three
different second basemen. Jjo Weatherhold's hitting over three hundred. He's
got an over four hundred obie obe ops is a
little bit lower, but four homers, eight stolen bases. Bat
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looks great weather Holt or McGonagall. I think a lot
of people are leaning McGonagall right now. Throw in Eldridge Hope, Like,
I think all those guys are the same. So I
think there's tiers that are happening right now. The top
tier to me is like made Walcott. I really still
love Max Clark more than a lot of other people.
Clark on the year hitting two fifty seven, four homers,
(10:27):
nine stolen bases, but over four hundred OBP. It's like
about one hundred and fifty points on his OBP. That's higher,
but he's not popping off like those other guys. But
so even if you want to do this, say like
made Walcott defrees, let's say they're like a little clump.
Then I think there's this Clark Bozana clump that's in there,
but that one might be joined by Bizana. I'm sorry
(10:49):
by Eldridge, Weatherhold, Hope, McGonagall, and I really think you
could maybe throw Besio Griffin paina in and it stops there.
That's like group two. You were Group two A and B. However,
you want to look at it of like the most important,
really unique hitters that are out there. But my point
of it was is mcgonagall's hit tool looks really great.
(11:12):
We need, you know, him to play a little bit more.
We want to see him get challenged, but he belongs
in the conversation of Hope, Weatherhold, Bazana. I don't know
if he one hundred percent has to be past them
in value, but mcgonagall's kind of a hot thing right now,
as is Connor Griffin, as is Louis Paana. You know,
so if you count in current market valuation, Connor Griffin's
having a ridiculous season. By the way, just got moved
(11:34):
up to HYA twenty seven stolen bases, nine homers. You know,
if you want to talk about the market of excitement,
current valuation, excitement, Griffin's probably a top ten. Mcgonagall's probably
a top ten. I think they're getting more buzz right
now than Weatherhold, Eldridge, Hope, Bazana, so those guys can
easily be up to Clark. I would I would say,
(11:56):
if we did a poll, I bet you would be
heavy on a Griffin over Max Clark. And that might
not be the wrong answer, but I think it's a
big old grouping of those guys. So like, I'm not
too hyper focused if I have Clark over Weatherhold or
Clark over Griffin in that I think all those guys
should be valued in a similar range. But as the
graduations kind of move off, it's going to make a
(12:17):
really interesting top fifteen, and it kind of leaves a
hole I think, as usually the prospect lists do. It
leaves kind of a hole in that, Like, let's call
it twenty to fifty range, who belongs? There are some
guys that might skyrocket, you know, Argentamala is a guy
that's been skyrocketing up ranks. But you start to get
these players that are really starting to pop up versus
(12:39):
players that have a lot of talent that are struggling,
like Walker Jenkins. How do you do that, Argentamala versus
Walker Jenkins. Well, Walker Jenkins has had tons of injuries.
He's only hitting two hundred right now. He's hit a
couple of balls hard versus Argentamala, who's shown some really
struggly contact stuff. Last year, it's in two seventy this year,
ten homers. This is a nineteen year old kid, you know,
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like that's where Rubber's meeting the road of like where
do we sit? You know, Bryce Rayner's out, George Lombard's
struggling with average or some triple A guys. I think
there's a lot of good value that's in those mid ranges,
but I think there's going to be a lot of
dissenting opinion is kind of where I'm going with it.
Top one hundred is very volatile right now. I know
a lot of people are doing updates, but I'm excited
(13:23):
about it. I think it's fun and hopefully you guys
like kind of talking about that top end of the list,
and I'm excited to drop the next update because a
few more dramatic changes and I don't know if Kurtz
will be graduated by the time I dropped that list.
I kind of do love dropping a list when there's
been a few bigger changes off so you can kind
of see like here's a different graduation. But I think
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that's kind of a look at the top fifteen. I
think there's some definite guys that are ready to make
bigger jumps again. I think Namala is one of those.
I'd love to see Lombard pick it back up, Cooper Pratt,
Aiden Miller, those are guys that can jump up and
definite vindication. My boy Braden Montgomery eight homers, eight stolen bases,
two seventy six average. Would like to see him move
(14:07):
up to double A. But he's one of those guys
I think that can make a big jump as well.
So that's kind of a look at the top, well
really the top twenty, because there's some dramatic changes. As
I'm looking here, there's some huge changes in the like
what is this sixty sixty to ninety range in my
ranks on some big ones. But that leads into what
I'm going to just focus on today, not give you
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a whole bunch of extra stuff, just jump right in
because I've got ten prospects that made some big moves
and for varying different reasons, these are going to be
deeper players. There's some buzziness to some of these guys,
some guys that have really dominated into the season that
took some dramatic looks, and I think there's some surface
(14:48):
level guys, a couple of pitchers or bigger surface level names,
but I think there's some deeper names that either A
I haven't talked about a ton or even B that
might not be on some radar, specifically one hit that
is out here in Arizona in the Complex League, and
a pitcher that hasn't gotten a ton of run. I
know KLAYG has talked about him, and I think that's
roughly it. These two guys are deeper names that have
(15:12):
like are skyrocketting up. So ten guys, big rank movers.
That's what we're going to focus on. Getting you a
Prospect one. Want to remind you to check out my
friend Dennis Sidler. Sids Grass has always been supportive of
Prospect one, and we are supportive of sids Grafs. Got
some great signings coming up. Again, I don't know what
we can talk about, but I think if you're a
Luise Pana fan, you're probably going to want to check
(15:34):
out Dennis Sidler. You got the All Star Game coming up.
I think he's got some major league signings that are happening,
so probably would be beneficial if I asked, Hey, what
would what should I talk about? But go to sids
grafs even if you don't know sids grafs online, sids
grass on eBay, and you can check out all of
the great stuff that is coming up with signings and
the great stuff that he's got like Corbyn, Carroll stuff,
(15:56):
Chris Sale doing a signing with Chris Sale after the
season he did. So there's some amazing stuff up there.
Go and check it out sidsgrafs and appreciate Dennis and
all his support as he always does. All right, friends,
break then let's do it. Let's talk about these ten
prospects that made some big old rank changes, at least
on mine. Shay, I like you. I like you so much,
(16:19):
I'm going to make you my partner. All he has
to do is find the gold and I'll share it
with you. Fifty to fifty prospect All right, Ten prospects
that are making moves on the prospect lists, at least
for mine, that have made some big dramatic moves. Let's
start with I think one of the buzzier dudes out there.
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And always find it funny too when you look at
like the MiLB page where Ronnie Rodriguez is listed. They
list him as a third baseman, but he's been a
catcher and he has played zero third base this year
on the field, So just pointing that out. His little
side note. If you check out his player page, they
have him listed at third base. He has literally not
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played a game according to the fielding log. He is DHD. Actually,
let's yeah, DHD, and he's been catching. That's it. Though.
I would think third base would be a really good
spot for him. And you know, one of the things,
there's a definite bias that ends up happening me being
out here in Arizona and seeing so many of the
guys that I do. It's very front faced, and I
(17:23):
can get lost a little bit on the East Coast
and like the FCL. But one of the guys that
he didn't get lost on was Roniel, and he had
been continuously moved up. And the funny thing is, you know,
in that same discussion of like falling too crazy into
hype and going ballistic with specific players and stuff like that,
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the Cardinals had two of the buzziest FCL players out there.
It was Roniel Rodriguez and Yiro Padilla. Well, Padia has
fallen on his face like, let me give you an
update on him. And what's interesting about that is Padilla
went I think inside or right at the top one hundred.
In the P and ADPs I did, and it was
(18:04):
a lot I think obviously blatantly based off of the
DSL numbers that he had last year, because in the
DSL to eighty seven a homer, some good extra base hits,
lots of stolen bases. I know from a chart perspective,
you know, he kind of popped, but he went like
super high. He's in the FCL this year. He's seventeen
years old, by the way, Like don't don't get a
twist that I'm like trying to crap on him, but
(18:25):
very very young. But he's sat in two thirty three,
no homers, eighteen stolen bases. Good OBP, but things haven't
like click clicked. I would say the OBP is very good.
The stolen bases are great. To see, He's just not
making a bunch of like big positive contact. So I
think the the radar of him has kind of dropped.
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Like if we were doing the P and ADPs today,
I don't think ul cpdag in the top one fifty.
But Ryan Rodriguez has been kind of like a completely
different story, so much so that he's moved out of
the FCL and he's in single A now. On the season,
hitting three twenty one, eight homers, a stolen base a,
four forty three OBP, and over eleven hundred ops. He
(19:08):
dominated complex ball. But he is doing and this is
this is the funny thing about it, because this isn't
me necessarily doing a like here the guys that have
been hot the last week. This is like an overarching
look because what can happen when he's getting challenged, he's struggling,
he's struggling in a ball. It's six games, but he's
hitting only two hundred right now, so two thirty one OVP.
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Everything has kind of fallen apart from what we saw there.
But it is a big transitional move complex ball. He
did not belong there anymore. He hit three seventy three
more walks than strikeouts, thirteen extra base hits in twenty games.
This is exactly what you want to see. Big body guy,
hard EV's great swing. I would love him to be
(19:53):
a position player over a catcher, and that's maybe where
we're gonna, you know, make that move right now the
DH and catching is in. You know, they might slowly
make that transition as time goes on. I guess playing
some third base in the DSL. But you know, like
we have to if we're giving credit. If I'm giving
credit to certain complex league players out here, the dominating
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of a league, I think is something that I do
want to pay attention to, especially when an age to
level type of thing. And what I'm telling you is,
I don't really care about the current struggle. The struggle.
The struggle itself is not unexpected. What he showed in
Complex was maybe below aged to level. I mean, eighteen
at complex is like not unheard of. Like eighteen years
(20:36):
old at Complex is not only like expected, but you
could be like, oh, that's even a little bit younger.
Absolute domination. He deserves credit for that and has shown
off like potential elite power. So I wanted I want
to push him up while not caring about some of
this early struggle. Now, obviously, if everything completely falls apart
once you get out, usually these complex balls have really
(20:58):
really bad pay So if he's now facing great pitching
and can't get stuff together, like we got to pay
attention to that. But I also say he's not striking out.
He struck out four times in twenty five at bats.
He's got three extra base hits so far in the
six games. Like, I think things are clicking in the
right direction. So this is about just there was a
more dramatic move. He belongs in the discussion of the
(21:22):
more elite class. Some not all complex players do. But
if you give me eighteen nineteen year old who especially
if I see them in person but really really dominates,
we're going to make that move. But there are cautionary tales.
Robert Klaws might be a cautionary tail. I tend to
still think I don't want to freak out. But Klaw's
(21:44):
dominated complex ball. Hit three point fifty last year. Then
he moved up and he played really well this year.
He's struggling his butt off. The strikeouts look like they're up.
He's hitting two thirty two, He's got a sub three
hundred OBP. I'm not right. I need to call it
quits on Robert Klaus. But that's the balance that we're
playing with. You know, no matter what underlying data or
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how many times we see a guy in person, like
there is a fine dance and a balance between like
Oh my god, this guy's elite da da da like
sample sizes you know, over time tell us. But all
of that beside the point Rainiel Rodriguez with the Cardinals
is a top one hundred valued prospect that that's probably
not even a question to anybody. What I think starts
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to happen is like, okay, so what level you know
a eighteen year old who just moved to a ball
dominated and then struggled. Is that? Is that better than
Xavier Isaac? Is that better than Charlie Condon? Is that
more valuable than Spencer Jones? Is it more valuable than Coolson, Montgomer,
Henry Bolt? Those are the Those are I think good
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questions because I don't have and I have not put
him quite yet in an elite class, and I think
the elite classes where you start to jump into the
fifties where it's like you're probably not going to move
too far out. But I think he's in there. He's
a firm top one hundred player. I think he's right
in that kind of like top seventy five range. And
I think there's a grouping of so I'm looking here,
(23:10):
like ten to fifteen guys that I think you know
a little bit more. Looks me, it's got to be
more video talking more like I think I think there's
a way that he can move up and he can
be like easily inside the top seventy five in a
very short period of time. I think that will be
him starting to figure out a ball a little bit.
But Rainio Rodriguez top one hundred far away. But you
(23:32):
do need to be paying attention to him if you
already weren't. I assume most everybody here is. But you know,
there's some of these leagues out there that you're burning churning,
and it's like, if you are a twelve team or
fifteen team and you have ten prospects, proximity doesn't help him,
but you should probably just make sure you have him
now in the same token. Number two is an interesting
(23:54):
conversation because this is one that I did put into
the elite class. I'm also biased because I see the
player a lot, and this is a complex level guy
who should not be complex too much longer, a little
bit older, one of the biggest rank movers. And then
getting back to that, let me see where did my
list go? They just get rid of it. When I
(24:15):
was looking, I did when I was looking at my list.
He's one of the biggest single movers on since the
season has started, and I think one of the biggest
over the last little, you know, rank or two update.
It's Tyson Lewis with the Reds, and I've talked a
decent amount about him, but man, every time I see him,
he is in kind of just stud level. Now. One
(24:37):
thing that's interesting is, I don't know if this isn't
a chat. I'm kind of forgetting where this was. But
this was kind of brought over to Fangraphs, where essentially
what was presented from the Fangraphs prospect people was that
they didn't know if Tyson Lewis could hit. And I
think maybe what's more meant by that is long term sustainability.
(24:58):
In like so he hit for impact because he's currently
hitting three seventy in complex ball, ridiculous. He's got a
almost five hundred slug so you know, there's some stuff
that's kind of floating there, but it hasn't been for power.
He's got one homer and he's got three triples. Weirdly,
(25:19):
he has no doubles, which I think is kind of funny.
Strikeuts have not been a big, crazy issue. But I
think everybody at this point knows that insane ball that
he hit, the one nineteen that I think they might
have potentially corrected to like one fourteen, that was out
there the thing that I love about him. So I
hear that, and I understand where that's coming from. I
(25:40):
understand where this idea that this bigger scope can he
hit question comes from. But then, once put in your face,
is this guy that is hitting. He is hitting three
seventy You know he is strike out rate something to
look at, it's like twenty two percent. You'd love it
to be like a little bit better. But I also think,
you know, he's trying to be aggressive out here. He
(26:00):
has dramatically increased his body mass year over year. You
know they list him at six two one ninety five.
That's probably right, but I want to say he was
like a buck eighty last year in the Bridge League.
He's nineteen years old, which is probably about level. I
think they want to see the bat come up a
little bit like I think it's lower launch angle stuff.
(26:21):
But he's making a ton of contact. Listen, MY big
thing with him is I think he can hit. I
think he will hit as long as the organization continues
to like make those big proper changes and optimize, and
it might be in the off season, but from like
his body perspective, this is a guy that looks like
a twenty five projected. He also has great bat speed.
(26:43):
He's shown off elite power with that, whether it's one
fourteen or one nineteen, which I think is just a
great sign we can take with us. And it's going
to be about how long does this take. I remind
you that a guy like Katel Marte was this player
that had these you know, top every year was top
ten max evs, but then his average ev would kind
(27:03):
of be stinky. Maybe Tyson Lewis is going to be
like that while he's figuring out the type of hitter
that he needs to be and has to be. You know,
we got to have more extra base hits in here.
We've got to get the ball in the air a
little bit more. But I think he's kind of an
elite talent nineteen. I want to see him go to
a ball. I want to see how that transition happens.
But I really think he's a stud and I love
(27:24):
everything that I'm seeing out of him. I think there
are some questions out there. But I put him, and
this is where it gets a little tricky. I put
him as like right at the top fifty range, so
I have him above Reino Rodriguez. Those could be questions,
you know, if Tyson Lewis doesn't figure it out and
he's just one of those dudes that he just pops
off occasional hard hit balls. But now he hits like
two seventy and it's ten homers, Like, that's not going
(27:46):
to work. He's also not super crazy aggressive on the
base paths right now, but he's still no. I guess
he's still a nine in seventeen games. Never mind take
that back, but he's not walking a ton Rhino Rodriguez
if he's a big elite power guy, okay, And that's
where the differentials can happen. But two complex players, one,
I see a ton of I got a lot of
people telling me positive things about Tyson Lewis, Yet you
(28:08):
get some prominent people putting some questions on what that
hit tool is going to look like. And then you've
got Reino Rodriguez, who has moved up out of complex
but had some struggles. But both guys, regardless of that point,
have moved themselves way way up. Rainel, Rainell Rodriguez, and
Tyson Lewis all right next up on the list. A
(28:29):
little bit of a cheat, a little bit of a
cheat because the whole time I'm like, hey, everybody, this
is going to be the biggest rank movers. Now, I
don't think I would qualify and necessarily qualify as this
is the one player that took a massive rank. But
let me give you this qualifier is that I had
this player high. There was a lot of negativity surrounded it.
(28:50):
The season kind of started off slow ish, and then
I think this player has picked up to a pretty
decent degree, so that's why. So so this is kind
of like a confirmation into the ranks. So it's like
a little bit of a cheap But said player is
Yo swe Persino with the Detroit Tigers, and someone had
brought it to my attention too, and I totally agree
(29:10):
with it. Where they were a little bit over zealous
and excited about Bersinio, but they're like he's not getting
enough love, and I was like, you know, I actually
don't disagree with that because if you're talking age to
level with what he's done in the last eight months.
It's massively impressive, even if like the numbers don't absolutely
just pop off of the planet or anything like that.
(29:32):
Jose Bersinio with the Detroit Tigers in Hia has definitely
been a huge, huge power boost. He is. Let me
take a look. Here, there are only so he is
and we moved to their only two players twenty years
or younger that have thirteen homers or more in the
(29:53):
minor leagues. The two players are Yos Persenio and lazarro Montes.
That's it. Now, if we move it to this interesting one,
we'll do. We do it to twenty or younger, and
we say double digit homers. Here are all of your
double digit Well, this is gonna be a bigger listen,
I thought, here are all your double digit twenty or
(30:15):
younger homer guys. I'm gonna count with my finger. I'm
going from bottom to top technically, so Arjinnamala there's one.
I'm going off of fangrafs ages, so sometimes I get screwy.
A run Escobar there's two. We're only going twenty or under.
Edwardo Quintero there's three. Michael Arroyo there's four, but above
(30:38):
Jarell Perez, he has twelve at five freely in Carnacion
with Boston he's twenty, he has twelve. That's six. And
then you'll say Bersinio and Montes. Seven players twenty or
younger with ten or more homers this season. It's a
pretty good list of guys that I just lifted off.
Listed off by the way in Carnacion, maybe there's a
(31:00):
little bit underrated there. Jarell Perez struggles with batting average,
but he's hit a bunch of homers. But everybody else
on that list a run Escobar flying up list. Everybody
loves argin Namala now, but Brasinia doesn't quite get into that.
And I feel like I'm a little defensive of him.
I said this on Tim Kannak's show the other day.
He invited me on We're talking about Brasinio, and I
(31:21):
felt a little defensive in that, and I think that's
where it was in that, like I got it got
lumped into me because I loved Jacob Marcy the year
prior in AFL and I fell in love with Bersinia
this year, and I think part of that got thrown
back at me, like, well, this is your Jacob Marcy
this year and people weren't super impressed. And Arsina is
(31:43):
just one of those AFL guys and I just don't
think he is. But just mind you he was. I
think he had just turned twenty years old when he
joined the AFL, so it was like nineteen into twenty,
and had a triple crown in the Arizona Fall League,
some pretty good players, batting average across the board, great decisions.
(32:05):
They were pitching him differently, which is weird you don't
see in the AFL. Then he brought it over into
this season where he went to High Egg and he's
only twenty years old, starting to change some positions. He's
becoming a predominant big power hitter, an almost four hundred
OVP with the two sixty four batting average. Pretty impressive. Now,
you know, the batting average isn't something to write home about.
(32:28):
I think that's part of the thing that ultimately you
might take a look at. People are going to look
at like contact rates to strikeouts, Like let's take a
look at strikeouts so far thirty four strikeouts over one
hundred and forty four bats three six nine. I mean
that's under I'm not looking at fangrafts, so I'm not
seeing percentages, but you know that's that's not horrific. He
has almost any walks a strikeouts. If we want to
(32:51):
look at the total power numbers by the way of
his thirty eight hits, twenty two or extra base, that's ridiculous.
That's ridiculous. One thousand ops, twenty years old, one of
the younger players at high A, and he's doing pretty
damn well. So I guess that's where the cheek comes from.
And that like there definitely was a path that there's
(33:13):
always path. He could be wrong, but like that he
was going to he could start trending in a wrong direction.
You know, he hit two fifty six in April. He
then hit two eighty nine in May. A little strugglly
this month, but he does have a homer. He has
a four hit game, by the way. But of the
five games he played in June, which I guess he's
missed a couple of days, he only that's the only
(33:34):
game that he had hits in. He felt wavery like, oh,
is he gonna be a two forty hitter, Like that's
not going to work. But average is getting up great OBP,
huge power. I think we just need to get some
more respect on Josue Berusinio and I just felt, you know,
not even like a confirmation or anything like that, but
it's just like I had him ranked high. I think
(33:54):
he's deserved of it, and he's one of the more
prolific younger power hitters so far across the minor league.
So Rassinio is one of those players that we are
giving some given some love to. And I think I
had wrote here he had a three forty ISO that
is the second best among all twenty or younger batters.
(34:15):
That's pretty sweet. I think it might have been Mantes
was the number one. So three forty ISO second best
among all twenty or younger hitters in the minor leagues.
Pretty impressive. Now here's another high a player, tad bit
Older actually closing in on twenty two. It looks like
he's actually gonna be twenty two here very shortly, actually
(34:35):
four days, so when you're listening to this and be
a couple of days to be his birthday. Mike Sarota,
he's going to come in. What number is this of
players that we've talked about, this is number four. Mike
Serota is someone that I kind of tried to be
more dismissive of even though he has, you know, absolutely
dominated in the short stint that he's had here good
college career where he was hitting essentially three hundred across
(34:58):
all three years. I saw him in the Bridge League
when he was with the Reds, but he was then
traded to the Dodgers, and he's played a and high
a so far, hitting three hundred across both levels, ten
homers combined in forty games on those two levels right now.
Great walk rate, strikeout rate is absolutely respectable. ISO has
(35:21):
been two seventy or higher across both levels. OBP has
been over four hundred on both of those. He absolutely
has a three four six slash on the season, which
is impressive. And you know, when you're looking at some
of those contact numbers, you definitely want like zone contact,
but overall is seventy five percent contact rate. He's making
(35:42):
a lot of contact. He's hitting the ball harder than
a lot of people are expecting. He has not been
stealing a bunch of bases, but it's a very proto
type type of body. He has more stolen bases in
the bank. There's gonna be continued future power, and I
thought it might be short, fluky stuff. And that's why
I think as the season has progressed, you know, is
(36:04):
is two hundred bats roughly forty games. Is that enough
of a sample size? Now, that's not enough to be
like this is exactly who he is, But we're trending
in a direction where he is massively overperforming at each
level in the best ways possible. I think it'll be
interesting to see once he moves a level up what
the strikeouts versus the contact rates are going to look like.
(36:25):
Because though the strikeout numbers, they don't like fly out
to you twenty one percent in a ball, twenty three
percent in hi A. He's twenty two years old. You know,
it's it's not that it's over, but like we want
to seem in double A. Double A is like a
really key number for him. Are those strike cut numbers
going to continue to like increase because there's an aggressiveness
(36:46):
and a big power bat that's in there. He's not
even pulling the ball a whole lot, so I think
that also speaks to some of the raw power that
he's putting up. And I you know, of that class,
it's technically I've now given you two of the reds
from that same draft class, because it was Sarota, Tyson, Lewis,
they had a couple other They were like, I'm forgetting
all of them. They are four guys that were here
(37:07):
during Bridge League from that draft class, Lewis, Sarota, I know,
Peyton stoveall and I'm forgetting whoever. The other one was
that they were all here and Serota just kind of
quietly did his thing. And then as soon as the
Dodgers got him, just like Zayer hope like the Zayer
hopes hopes to fall over again, they just unlocked this
big power bat making really great contact. It's hard to
(37:29):
deny that like he is, he is a massive, massive
riser in ranks. Now, I will say, you know, like
when I do this, I think it's it's becoming about
stabilizing the value where I think some people would look
at the production that he's had so far and just
say this is it, Like we're good to go, Like
legitam it, he's a top fifty prospect. I'm not ready
(37:51):
to go there yet, but I will say it's like
a great prototypical body. You hope the Dodgers are going
to let him continue to produce. But I think there's
also a bigger question to be like, you know, let's
say he ends at double A and you've got Zayre
Hope and then you've got like Dalton rushing up there
and Andy Pius. How many of these guys can push,
how many of these guys can get to the majors,
(38:14):
how many are going to be blocked? What are trade
assets and stuff like that. Maybe at the end of
the day, it doesn't like fully matter for Serota because
you just want him to keep being this big power hitter.
I mean, an over three hundred ISO is huge. He
has the thirteenth best ops in the minors with like
I think I did like fifty at bats or something,
(38:36):
But he has an over thousand ops with a three
four to six slash, and that ops is the thirteenth
best across the board. That's how good he's been. There's
a little age to level that's going on here, but
it's just simply something like, you know, if he keeps
doing this the best. The best clue was that he
carried over his A to high A. That's a big jump, too, huge,
(38:57):
huge clue there. So if he does this to I
think it's going to tell us even more but big
athletic power outfielder might be showing off some twenty five
plus home run power and Soroota was kind of a
nothing burger for a lot of people. But he should
definitely be high on radars and he has made a big,
massive jump in the ranks for sure. Now another one
at number five. We've got a couple of pictures that
(39:19):
are coming up, but just finishing up. We've got two
more hitters after this, and then we're going to talk
about three pictures in the same vein of Mike Siota,
someone I've seen kind of preconceived notion carries a little
bit when they get hot. I have carried kind of
a preconceived Jacob Reamer thought process because he was in
the Arizona Fall League this past year and he was okay,
(39:42):
wasn't fantastic, got some relative playing time. He's got a
pretty underperforming minor league career. I mean, one ninety six
in a ball last year he did hit three thirty three,
and that's high A, by the way, a ball. He
was okay. The year prior to that, in High A
he hit two oh three. Not great. There's a little
(40:03):
bit of like learning levels, so in and now I'm
looking at this, This actually is a kind of reminiscent
of what I've talked about with Rafael Devers. First year
twenty twenty two, complex, mediocre, two sixty one. Next year
and that was very that was like seven games. By
the way, next year comes in four twenty nine. You
(40:23):
go up to a ball you hit two eighty. So
that's kind of your dominance. Bam, you're you're you know,
you're dominating that level. You've learned it really well. You
go up to high A struggle two o three, twenty
five games, twenty twenty four, you go back. You got
a little bit at a where you dominate, and you
go back to high A struggle again. Come back this
(40:43):
year dominating at high A twenty one years old, hitting
three eleven, eight homers, eleven stolen bases. What I'm getting
at is, if you're catching it is like there is
he gets to a level where he learns it dominates,
it moves up. There's a struggle and adjustment period, and
that has kind of held him back from being like
this big standout player. But this year he's continued every
(41:06):
single minor league season having a double digit walk rate.
His case tend to kind of lower. I mean, he's
under twenty percent, which is fantastic. ISO's way up over
two fifty four. He's got a three four five slash
right now. Jacob Riemer does, and he has been one
of those guys that has been a skyrocketer because also
(41:27):
those power numbers eight homers are impressive. You want to
know what's more impressive. Seventeen doubles so far this year.
Those seventeen doubles are top twenty in baseball. And if
we look at players twenty one or younger here you're
twenty one or younger with seventeen or more doubles. You
(41:50):
have Max Martin Maxton Martin, who's twenty with Texas, which
by the way is crazy because I saw him last
year in complex and he had the jankiest, weirdest swing
and he's got nineteen doubles with a ball. Then you
have Sal Stewart who is next to him with seventeen
as well, who's in double A. Then Jacob Riemer, and
(42:14):
then nobody. If we want to go, if we want
to extend it a little bit, you've got Freiley in Karnassion, which,
by the way, let's give extra attention to him. Twenty
years old, sixteen doubles, twelve homers, twenty nine extra base hits.
Good Lord, I don't know if there are many twenty
or youngers. This is a free elee in karnassion tweet here.
(42:38):
I don't know if there's many more twenty younger guys. Now,
I'm gonna have to do a sorting here that have
twenty nine or more extra base hits. Even as I look,
that's crazy. Sabasha Walcott also has sixteen doubles as well,
So I'm just that's kind of the crew that we're
talking about here with Remer tiny bit older twenty one
years old, high ay, but has dominated eleven stole in
(43:00):
bases too, something I paid attention to over three hundred average,
and as we were giving that number, the total is
twenty nine extra base hits he has. When I do
the math, four doubles, I'm sorry, four triples, seventeen doubles,
eight homers, that is the same amount. Twenty nine extra
base hits is a crazy, crazy number. Strikeouts are there.
(43:23):
We'll have to like kind of monitor how that goes
long term. But you know, he is kind of and
maybe the AFL helped him transform into this better here.
He is early into his twenty one year age, so
I guess he was twenty when he was out here
in the AFL, which is pretty interesting. Contact rates are huge,
over eighty percent, so I was just giving you what
Mike Serota's doing. Okay, eighty percent overall contact rates in
(43:47):
the minor leagues not looking at so I don't have
his own contact rates here, but he's pulling the crap
out of the ball right now, which it looks like
in his biggest struggles he is obviously just not getting
to the ball and he can't pull the ball. This
is an instance where he is. Pitch recognition really looks
like it's locked in fifty one percent pole percentage, which
(44:09):
the only other time he's done that was last year
at a ball where he had kind of dominated, and
he hit three point thirty three in those short amount
of games, So it really seems to be locked in.
Big again, bigger body guy, you know, they some six
foot two hundred, maybe even a little bit better. Swing
looks pretty nice. I'm not sure if he's like this,
no doubt top one hundred prospect, but the package of
(44:32):
Sirota and Remer were just kind of very disinterested prospects.
I think for a lot of people that have had
these really great early starts that are carrying over. Now.
The thing to watch for with Reemer is if you
only look at June. He is back to struggling in June,
but the last two games he's picked up the hits,
starting to hit the ball better. But June's numbers look
a little bit down, but overall there is power, there
(44:55):
is speed, and we laid out some of the numbers
on why he's very impressive and Saroda, their trajectory of
how high they went is kind of simple to like
just how disinterested I think a lot of people were
in them in general. Number six, we are going to
the complex. So we got these little groupings and these
pairings of guys. We had the big, big complex movers.
(45:17):
We kind of had just the Jose Bersino group. We
had the kind of nobody cared and they have had
these crazy good seasons with data and Soerda and Ramer,
and now we are back to two absolute complex standouts
that have not moved like Rainiel Rodriguez or Tyson Lewis,
but they're starting the path of it absolute unknowns for
(45:40):
many many people that should be more known. And one
of them's my guy out here with the Dodgers. I
have mentioned him once or twice. It's Ching Shei and
Co with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who is a big
bodied dude. That's one of the main things that stands
out to you, by the way, because this is a
team that's got like a meal Morales on it. And
(46:02):
jingsen Co is an eighteen year old six foot three,
two hundred and fifteen pound outfielder who he's got this
crazy high upright stance. You can I think I put
some video out. I don't know if I've done it
on Twitter, but my Instagram at is at the Welsh
you can see some swings and he has had just
a monstrous, monstrous complex like aet eighteen years old. He's
(46:24):
got a four to five six slash hitting over four hundred,
five hundred OBP. I'll give you the exacts as I'm
recording this. Four to twenty one batting average, five point
twenty one OBP over six hundred slug This is in
almost thirty games in complex. Pretty impressive. He played in
the DSL last year as a seventeen year old two
(46:46):
forty one in a short sample size this year strikeouts
way only fifteen percent strikeout rate with a fourteen percent
walk rate. With a major league looking body which has
stood out, he has a one ninety five w RC plus.
You want to be careful about like complex league stuff
like that, but you know you could start to like
(47:07):
maybe make cases and pay attention when you get over
one hundred played appearances. But for reference, one hundred and
ninety five WRC plus it is the highest of any
teenager in baseball with one hundred or more plate appearances.
That is higher than Ronnio Rodriguez or the Cardinals by
a couple spots. That's how ridiculous he has been out here.
(47:30):
There is some I've seen some bad swings from co.
He has gotten mixed up by a little bit more
advanced breaking speed stuff. He uh, it was Ret Louder.
He's gone up against God. Who is the I'm forgetting
the other one. There was a rehab guy that was
here and kind of made him look a little silly,
but he definitely destroys fastballs. When he gets lost in account,
(47:52):
that's where you get these really ugly swings. But that
big upright stance can get the he can loft the ball,
get that up in the air, and he's got some
crazy big raw tools. He's not even pulling the ball
right now. The contact percentage isn't like crazy absurd. We
kind of understand this league kind of sucks as far
as pitching goes, but he is an eighteen year old
(48:13):
and he is not striking out. He's walking. He has
a four or five six slash, two homers, two stolen bases.
It's pretty ridiculous. Eleven hundred slug. We got to give
some respect to co so ching cin Co. Ko is
the last name, c h I N G Dash HSI
E N and then Co as the last name. And
(48:34):
that's where I mean. I've talked barely talk to him, Miguel,
to him, we just go Co and then he responds
to that, not to butcher his first name. He is
somebody that is taking a big move from absolute nothing
burger to anybody to dominating this league. He will be
out of here soon, I don't know when. And you know,
to be fair, maybe they actually want him to stick
(48:55):
around for the entirety of the Rookie League and then
when Bridge League starts up and you have guys will
move him up to a ball. Let's see how he
fares an a ball before you make him a crazy
big prospect. But if you want one of these dudes
that is going to pop on all of the like
the data prospecting people, there is no doubt because you
have high WRC plus, low strikeouts, high average, you know,
(49:18):
over two hundred ISO, like all of those things are
going to scream to database prospect list. I'll tell you
he's a little bit more raw than what they might
say on there. Well, he is moving up. He's absolutely
moving up. Another guy who is moving up, and this
is over in the FCL and this is you know,
this is a little bit more stat data driven when
(49:40):
you do the research on it and then you can
find some good swings. Edward Florentino with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
This is another big bodied outfielder that is eighteen years old.
Eighteen year old Edward Florentino with the Pittsburgh Pirates, standing
at six foot four, over two hundred pounds, five homers,
(50:01):
four stolen bases in twenty two complex games this year
with a three four to six slash. Again, those are
I mean three four to six slashes stand out right now.
He is top. He's a top thirty ops of complex
or above ball, So if we don't count DSL, he
has a top thirty ops and is one of only
(50:21):
sevent teenagers with a thousand ops or higher currently crazy
three four to six slash. We told you five homers,
which he hit last year, but he's now done it
in like half the games. K percentage has also gone
down to twenty two percent. And one of the big things,
whether that is approach or seeing the ball better or
(50:45):
you know, complex can be weird. Maybe you just seeing
a lot of fastballs. He's pulling the crap out of
the ball almost a sixty percent pull rate and complex.
So when he is when he's given the ability to
pull the ball pure raw power is standing out. Five homers.
He's got the other extra based stuff. He's only got
three doubles right now, but the five homers absolutely stand out.
(51:05):
With not an alarming strikeout right whatsoever. I think Edward
Florentino simply from like a fall in love with a
projectability standpoint also dominating. He just like co He was
a guy that just played in the DSL last year,
showed off some power, showed off some stolen bases, eight
stolen bases is a big six foot four to two
hundred pound outfielder. Video you can see out there too.
(51:27):
He doesn't quite look like a stolen based guy, and
maybe that's not going to fully continue over. But Edward
Florentino like Co are two players that you can have
that big argument of huge prospect lists, how far blah
blah blah the guys go. Both of these guys are
kind of rocketing up, and I think there are question
marks on both of them. I think long term like
(51:48):
ability to hit, like breaking pitches and strikeouts for Florentino
is something to watch. Co also is kind of the
same way, like how when he starts to get challenged,
how is he going to keep you know, he's hitting
four hundred right now, how is gonna like react to that?
But these are guys that like can be top three
hundred prospects that are really far away, but they could
move up really dramatically if they continue going. So Edward
(52:10):
Florentino with the Pirates, ching sin Co with the Los
Angeles Dodgers in complex both murder balling it and moving
up the ranks. A couple pictures, two bigger name pictures,
and there's This is kind of coming back to cheaty.
We're a little bit cheaty again. But that's okay because
this guy needs to be talked about and naturally the
most important thing, and there's a little bit of that,
(52:33):
like Persinio a confirmation, there's a guy that there's another
guy who's made a big, major move who has been
get a lot of conversation, and then a guy that
is doesn't really have a lot of conversation at all
in complex. So number one our cheat is Travis Sacora.
Travis Sacora, like the Persinio conversation, is one of those
guys that I've had a very aggressive rank on. There
was a period of time with like the injuries and
(52:55):
stuff that you just kind of wonder and maybe, you know,
maybe other guys got to pass, and you just kind
of in this indifferent standpoint. Then he's back seven games,
twenty four innings. They're slowing the innings in He has
been an He's a demon, an absolute demon. Forty seven
point six percent K minus walk percentage. He's around a
(53:16):
fifty two or fifty three percent K percentage. A forty
seven point six percent K minus the walk percentage that
leads all minor league starting pitchers that have at least
twenty innings thrown, So let's be fair. Forty to fifty
is much better example a short sample size, but to
the point, it's so dominant. The next best person has
(53:37):
a thirty eight percent K minus walk percentage. It's crazy.
He's giving up an under one hundred batting average against
stupid Sixteen point eight K per nine is insane. That's
like the most elite relievers. And mind you again, he's
going like three innings on some outings and he has
(53:58):
the best swinging strike percent of anyone with those twenty
innings in baseball, around thirty percent. Travis Sakora is a demon.
The only thing you want out of him is to
go deeper into games and to start to get pushed.
He's at HIA the twenty one year old. We were
dying for him to get challenged a little bit and
go to double A. But the reason it's really important
(54:19):
to talk about because I think it was the last
show that I did, I talked about Chase Burns in
that there's a part of me. We went from like,
you know, theoretical rookie Sazaki, there's your number one, then
number two's were like to me, it was like job
Tommy john sucks, Andrew Painter and Bubba Chandler, and then
(54:43):
we would go to like the next tier, Tier three,
which for most people at least a couple of months ago,
started Noah Schultz, and then you know, we'd have like
a grouping maybe like Hagen Smith even Misslerowski probably wasn't
in that. Maybe Chase Burns kind of slid in that
third area what I was saying in the last episode.
(55:04):
So I think Chase Burns is in the top area.
I think Chase Burns needs to be talked about in
the same scope as Andrew Painter. And with the poor
results of Roki Sazaki, there's a part of me that
I've made a couple moves you're going to see on
the next rank thing. But like maybe it's Chase Burns
over Roki Sazaki right now, Like we know how ridiculous
(55:25):
Suzaki can be. We know that splitter is ridiculous. He
can throw two different versions of it. But his fastball
was flat and his slider sucked, so he's gonna be
able to tap into that. So that's why I think
like a guy like Chase Burns is there, He's in
that grouping. I don't think it's crazy to talk about
him in the same breath as Bubba Chandler and as
(55:45):
Andrew Painter. And where I'm going with it is, I'm
not sure it's crazy to talk about Travis Sakora in
those same breaths. If you get off Roki, Bubba, and Painter,
I think the top two pitchers in baseball. I guess
Miserowski is, well, you got to get them off. The
(56:07):
top two pitchers are Chase Burns and Socora. But what's
more interesting about this is there's a legitimate chance at
the end of this year, Rokie's gone, Bubba's gone, they
better be. Painter's gone off the list, Misrowski's gone, and
Travis Acora is the number one pitching prospect. That's where
I think we can go. Noah Schultz is faded. Uh.
(56:29):
I don't know if did I just if I didn't
say it. There's the potential Chase Burns comes up because
he's at Triple A and he loses his prospect eligibility.
In that there's a short list of guys, and I
think Travis Socora could potentially be that player. It's a
great fastball, it's a great slider. He's throwing a splitter,
which is going to be a huge strikeout pitch, especially
(56:49):
if you have that splitter on the seeing eye for
a fastball and a slider. Get the hell out of here,
and you're already seeing it. His low walk rates one
point eight walk per nine, almost a seventeen k per
nine walk k minus walk percentage boom era one point
one three, his x FIP one point two seven with
a point eight FIP. It's small sample sizes. You gotta
(57:12):
get more. You gotta get fifty innings to start to
feel really good about it. But the point remains five
strikeouts to I'm sorry, five walks to forty five strikeouts
in twenty four innings. If he does ninety percent of
that in his next twenty four to twenty six innings,
he just needs to be in that conversation. And there
might still be an opportunity where Travis Lakora can be
(57:33):
had for a little bit more, or at least at
the cost of not being like a top five or
ten sp around the prospect world. You know, because I'm
pulling this up here, Schultz might still be in that
for a lot of people. You got Hagen Smith let
me scroll here, Thomas White. I mean it's getting a
little thin here. Matthews and Schultz have kind of disappointed.
(57:55):
I'm going down the list. Trey. Yes, Yes, Savage. I
always want to say you Savage, but Yesovich. He's kind
of bumping up that list. Maybe Ryan slip. But do
you see what I'm getting at? Like that list it
kind of waivers, like right now, it's those top guys
I mentioned. Then you got maybe Burns, Hagen Sokora, Thomas White,
maybe Schultz stills at your top five, and then things
(58:15):
kind of open up. Maybe you can slip Secora in there.
It's it's a really really like just dominant stuff that
he's showing. And you know, I think him and Hagen
Smith are an interesting conversation. But you know, Hagen still
lives in that I get, I mysteriously get all of
my production in in zone whiffs, and I think Secora
is stuff just in general, that three pitch mix might
(58:37):
be something I want to bank on a little bit
more so. You know, if if Chase Burns doesn't come off,
Painter Chandler, Sazaki and Misrawski will and I think Burns
and Secora fighting for the top two s P spots
out there, so that's why that one is so important.
But a real true jumper coming in at I guess
(58:57):
this is number nine of all the players were talking about.
This is probably the epitome of the number one player
from a full jump perspective of preseason value to current value.
And it's probably no surprise if you've been paying attention.
It's Gauge Jump and no pun intended on his name.
Gauge Jump has flown up High A to Double A
(59:19):
so far this year. Didn't pitch last year after being drafted,
and he is dominated at both stops now, twenty two
year old. You love the double A push. This is
what you really want to probably end up focusing on. Well,
guess what he's been better. He's been better at double
A than he was at Triple A. From an era perspective,
I suppose at High A he had six games, thirty
(59:42):
one innings, a thirteen k per nine, a one point
four to five walk per nine with a two three
two era fip an X fit both better. Double A
five starts twenty nine innings, so roughly the same strikeouts
are down, but it's still ten point seventy four amazing
two point four to five walk per nine. It's a
full walk more, but it's still great. Point nine to
(01:00:03):
two era ridiculous FIP and x FIP are worse, but
two point four three and two point eight eight those
are ridiculous. Something I love to see two with his
pitch mix. Point three homer per nine so far across
what is the sixty point one innings. That's an elite.
I don't give up homers that maybe gets exploited by
(01:00:25):
the way when you go and pitch in their little
home ballpark for the A's. But he's rattling off a
looks like an elite fastball, good slider, good curveball, and
I think you know, command has just clearly been so
much better than some previous grades that are out there
right now. Thirty four percent K percentage with a twenty
(01:00:46):
eight such a twenty nine K minus walk percentage, that's
incredibly good. I know it doesn't sound as big compared
to secoras, but this is in like more than double
the innings and it's an almost thirty percent K minus
walk percentage. He's holding batters to under two hundred, he's
got a sub one whip and he doesn't even have
like this extra advantage of you can look at left
(01:01:07):
on base percent, it's only eighty one percent. You know,
if you see ninety plus, you're like, that doesn't quite
float one hundred percent, but eighty that's not unreasonable out there.
So you know, gauge jump from the stuff numbers you see.
I know there's a lot of guys out there, like
TJ Stats and stuff that do some of the different stuff,
plus type of models that you can see, and I
(01:01:30):
know he is absolutely flown up there. You know, the
lower slot arm is pretty tricky as well. Breaking balls
are crazy deceptive, Like he looks ridiculous, and the models
love him as well, and I think, like results to models,
everything is coming together. Really. The only question is is
(01:01:51):
like how much more do you buy it? You know,
I asked this question to Tim. It's interesting I see
the pole result that I kind of phrase like, so
where do you sit at with him? Gauge jump has
moved up dramatically. If if you look at you can
look at ranks different ways. There's the long term, or
if you look at the buzz if you made a
(01:02:11):
rank list of the most hyped exciting players, gauge jump
is probably a top ten SP, maybe a top five
SP in that world of he's moved up so much
and the value and everybody loves him that I pose
the question, do you think you can still buy him
or do you think his value has gotten to the
area where you sell him? And sixty nine percent on
(01:02:36):
his poll said you still buy onto Gauge Jump. So
if that's the case, if you believe there's still more
upside and the value has not Caughton up, then you
can kind of jump into the market. I'm uncertain if
we're at a place where because every minor league tweet,
especially when it talks about pitching, really revolves around Gage Jump.
(01:02:57):
I mean, I'm looking here as I just type in
Gauge Jump on Twitter and you start talking, and I'm
looking at like all these people that are just like,
here's my top prospect list, and it's like, Gauge Jump
is a top ten pitching prospect. I mean, Jesus, I
see one where Painters not even top five, okay, but
you see Gauge Jump in the top ten unanimously. And
that might be the case, but that's also that value
(01:03:18):
thing that's going on. But I'm thoroughly impressed with the
pitch mix. The fastball that sets up those secondaries is
what makes me think there's sustainability right now. He can
pitch high, up on the zone or low. I really
like gauge jump. Maybe my rank won't be necessary if
you rank him like it's a top thirty overall. But
(01:03:38):
I see Baseball America's put him top seventy five. It
looks like in that general range, and I think that's
a pretty good spot for gauge jump. So he has
had probably the most dramatic jump, no pun intended, of
maybe any prospect at all, because of the momentum of
how much he's moved up. Final prospect this is a
deeper one. This is a complex pitcher who probably should
(01:04:00):
not be there much longer. Really good complex pitchers, they
don't stay around too long. We got a couple out here.
Ethan Dorchi's with the Brewers. He should be gone pretty quick,
big body guy, oh Man Camaia, I think his name
is with the Giants. He has been really really good.
Those are guys that are gonna leave in the FCL.
(01:04:21):
There's a guy that looks really really impressive and he
should be leaving pretty dang soon. It's Johnny King with
the Blue Jays did not give up a run in
three May starts. He struck out fifteen in his last
two June starts, which by the way, only equaled out
to like seven and one third inning. So this is
one of those guys, like many complex pitchers, you're just
(01:04:44):
building up. You're building him up. But started off great
in May, strikeouts, picked up in June. His fastball looks great,
speaking of TJ stats, put it at like a one
ten plus stups or one ten plus stuff plus in
his model. Command is there, and he currently has the
tenth best K minus walk percentage in baseball with ten
(01:05:06):
or more innings pitched. On the year as a whole,
he's got fifteen innings with a almost sixteen K per
nine a one point one to seven ERA groundball monster
right now, to fifty eight percent ground ball rate with
an almost sixteen percent K percentage. That's ridiculous, And guys
are pulling the ball on him and stuff like that,
(01:05:26):
Like that's ridiculous. When you have like high ground ball
rates with really high strikeouts. That also might speak to
you know, complex ball a little bit. But to the point,
the sample size is way too small. But the stuff
looks way too big to be there. So this is
clearly a player. Get him out of complex. See what
he does if he goes all full demon in low A.
(01:05:48):
But either way, he's a big, massive jumper because regardless
of the environments and stuff like that, you have to
you've got to make the move. The difference is is
like when someone's like, oh, this guy's nothing and now
he's a top seventy five. I don't usually do that,
Like Johnny King could have been not much anything preseason,
but now you look at him and you're like, well,
he's got to come way up. You know. The first
(01:06:10):
move we got to make is we got to get
him as a top You know, I'm just arbitrarily saying
like top two fifty player. But if you want to
talk about the stock market excitement level that comes up,
for sure he's higher valued than that. You should value
him higher. But what's the path of him. There should
be a more specific and discerning path for him to
go from like hey, he's a top two to fifty
(01:06:31):
prospect to hey he's near the top one hundred. It
should be more than fifteen innings. Even if the stuff
is amazing. There's plenty of guys that Charlie Soto has
like awesome stuff, but there's injuries and stuff. Connor Prelip,
you know, like we want to see consistency. We want
to see some challenges and that's what we're waiting for
for Johnny King to go nuts. But he should be
on radars and deeper leagues that have open worlds. If
Johnny King is out there, I would I would go
(01:06:53):
and pick him up. It's hard to bet on like
eighteen year old pitchers, but this is a six foot
three lefty eighteen years years old, killing complex, big strikeouts,
getting ground balls. What more do you want? Right? What
more do you want? Maybe some more prospect one. Well,
let's try to get more consistent, right, boys and girls,
Thank you guys for hanging out as always. I believe me,
I'm well aware of the inconsistencies of all of it,
(01:07:15):
trying to find a good rhythm. It revives me though
doing these episodes and kind of getting back into it.
But I need to find myself a nice, good rhythm
in path to make sure we're consistent, and part of
that might be getting into some heavier guest episodes because
there's a lot going on around the world. I want
to hear what's going on on all our prospect friends.
We got the MLB Draft coming up, slight, slim, little
(01:07:37):
baby chance. I applied for condentials for the Futures Game
and the draft. That's one hurdle. We got a couple
other hurdles, but there's the smallest little baby chance that
I could be out there, which would be some other
cool stuff. But otherwise I'm out here in complex checking
out plenty of these guys, whether they're rehabbing or moving up,
and I'm excited to keep talking with you guys. So
make sure you're subscribe to the podcast on your favorite app.
(01:07:57):
Go to in this League dot Com to support on
the Patreon. I very much appreciate that that is what
keeps everything going and definitely puts pressure on me to
make sure there is not only does one episode but
a week, but trying to do more. That puts a
lot of pressure on me in the best way. So
go to end this League dot Com for the support.
But he also can check out the prospect list, the
Dynasty list. Those should be updated within the next week,
(01:08:19):
and we've got some bigger draft lists that'll be on
this next update as well, and some more focused draft things,
so make sure you're on the pod. Go there. You
can check me out over on Fantasy Pros as well
on all my work, and follow me on Twitter at
is it the Welsh. Thank you friends, have a fantastic
one and looking forward to talking to you on the
next episode right here on Prospect one.