Episode 401 - Geoff Pontes of Baseball America - Prospect One

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
In this league podcast that work present Prospect one. So
Fantasy prospect podcast prospect What with your host Chris Wels.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
This is the Fantasy Baseball prospect podcast. It's Prospect one.
I'm your host, Chris Welsh. You can find on the
socials at is it the Welsh and at in this
League dot Com on the Patreon where my top five
hundred prospects live, my top four hundred dynasty prospects for
the upcoming MLB Draft. Yes you got it, MP one
ADPs plus a ton more group me rooms which is

(00:38):
like discord access to me and the community, which is awesome,
and some other cool stuff out there as well. But
at the end of the day, you are supporting me,
supporting Prospect one and getting access to that stuff when
you do it. So go to in this League dot
com that is the Patreon in this League dot com
sign up today. I would be so grateful. I will
thank you so much for doing so. Welcome in en

(01:00):
Glad to have you back, and today we've got a
great one. Jeff Ponce from Baseball America is back in
the saddle. We're gonna be talking about the Raphael Devers trade,
but maybe not the things you might think about like
Jeff was doing around in some of the media. No,
we're actually talk about the guys that were traded. We're
gonna talk about James Tibbs. That's kind of the big
thing to get into. You know what type of prospect

(01:22):
is a Jose Bayo who was traded as well. We're
gonna get Jeff's thoughts on the pieces acquired in the trade. Plus,
we've got some prospects, some hitters that have been moving
up that I want to get his take on. We've
got some pitching battles, some pitching ranks from Baseball America
with some of their most recent updates, and some prospects
that are deeper that Jeff wants you to know. So

(01:44):
good hour long conversation with Jeff Ponts from Baseball America.
That is what is in store for this episode of
Prospect one. It has been a busy, busy and crazy
crazy week or so really with everything going on around
kind of the prospect world. You've got Jack cagleone dropping
two bombs, Nick Kurtz finding himself, Cam Smith finding himself,

(02:06):
Christian Campbell losing himself, being optioned down to Triple A.
Then you've got the MLB Draft combine, which it was here.
There's so much going on, and you know, if draft
coverage was my number one thing, I probably would have
taken the time to go out and do it. There's
also a little part of me it's out here in Arizona.

(02:27):
Obviously we didn't have like Ethan Holliday wasn't working out
like there were only so many I mean to be honest,
I kind of wish I would have gone and done it.
I did watch it, which is the extra benefit, but
I could have been there in person, maybe try to
get access to some of these guys, but with everything
going on, I did not get out there, but did
watch plenty and saw some eye opening stuff from some

(02:49):
of these guys. Keseon Cunningham, Big sixty just looks good,
Brandon Compton and Quinton Young with just absurd, absurd ex
of a lonees. They were putting up some really impressive guys.
There were some really impressive guys out of the Jojo Parker,
Gavin Fiene who I like. There were some impressive bats

(03:09):
in there, you know that are going to help kind
of feed some of those thoughts and probably you know
in next episode of the one after we're going to
do a draft centric episode. Hopefully I can get my
boy Joe Doyle, who was out here during the combine.
But you've got combine, you've got the prospects, you've got
the futures game looming. There's some you know, sprinkling tidbits

(03:29):
out there that some of the names maybe the people
all know, or a decent amount of the names know.
So you know, in the next week or so, maybe
two weeks probably well, I mean, I guess I can't
be too much more than two weeks, but you know,
probably in the next week or so, we'll probably start
getting those future game names. So a lot of that
is going down. Plus we have had rehab guys. Shoto

(03:50):
Imanaga pitched over the weekend. I got to see him.
There's a ton but it also was one hundred and
seventeen degrees here in Arizona today. I had a friend
hit me up saying, Hey, I'm going to go to
the Mariners and Rangers today. If you're coming by, I
know it's hot, but you know, won't be there too
crazy long, but see a little bit. And I was like, no,
record Arizona one hundred and seventeen degrees on June nineteenth.

(04:13):
All pass unless there's something that's really pulling me some
great prospect rehabbing. I've seen all the guys. I've seen
Co with the Dodgers. I've seen Dary Fernandez with the Guardians,
I've seen JD. Dix. I've seen a ton of them.
So really has to push me out when it's that
this is the type of weather that burns you out,

(04:33):
my friends. But all of that aside, we got a
ton in the prospect world. This is going to be
a good conversation to kind of center a few of
these things out that are happening with some big prospects,
some really good takes from Jeff, and we kind of
intertwined some other players. The prospect update should be coming.
I'm trying to maybe like within twenty four hours of
you guys listening to this. I'm trying to drop it

(04:54):
on Friday, because next week it's going to be crazy.
So this update is looming, and I've got some big
I've got a new guy inside the top five that
has nothing to do with a graduation. We do have
some graduations in tow. I have added quite a few players,
you know, And I was thinking about this too one
way to consume the list. You clearly can just go

(05:15):
and just like, you know, look and look, oh this
guy's here, and da da up and kind of scroll
through and have fun. But I have a listing where
not only does it show for every it shows the
changes from every update, and then it shows the changes
from the beginning of the season. But not only does
it like have you clearly if you see a dark green,
that's a guy that's moved up, but it also shows

(05:36):
new additions. Sometimes an addition might be a mistake that
I had, I miss somebody and that's why, but also
guys that I've finally decided to drop on the list
and they get into the five hundred. So you can
use the list to also say who are new guys
that have been added. You know, sometimes I might not
go ballistic with how someone else might put a player,
like oh, this guy was nobody and now this month

(05:57):
he's top eighty. You know, I might not do that,
But you can go and check out on the list
and you can see these guys were out ranked last time,
and those are like the brand new editions. So just
another little tidbit you can see on because there are
quite a few quite a few guys one or two
was like, oh yeah, I probably should have had them before.
Some others just going through checking out doing stats, looking
at data finding players and then ope, this guy needs

(06:19):
to come up. So there's some good ones in there.
Plus we've got the big Dynasty update, so be on
the lookout for that in the next twenty four hours
on Patreon for the Prospect List and the Dynasty List.
Want to hear from you guys. And then it's going
to get crazy because then next month we know we
have the Draft, and then we're going to have the
players on their new teams that will be added to
the list that is usually somewhere between seventy five and

(06:41):
one hundred players. Maybe I'm maybe fifty and seventy five
somewhere in there that are added to those top five hundreds.
So woe baby, we got a lot going on there.
I want to give a shout out to Dennis Sidler
and sids Grafs. You guys can get some incredible, incredible
memorabilia autographed by some of your favorite prospects and major leaguers.
Just did signing with Ivan Herrera, one of the best

(07:01):
catchers in baseball. There's some awesome stuff up on his
eBay store, plus all the big prospects out there. I
believe Luis Pania is going to be happening pretty soon
with the Brewers, which is gonna be amazing, and all
of the past ones from Jackson Merril to Jackson Churio.
Don't have to just be a Jackson, you can also
be a Corbyn. So go and check it out. Sids
grafs on the eBay, Sidsgraf's on the social, sidsgrafs dot com.

(07:24):
Those are all the different places go and support Dennis.
He's always supporting the show here. All right, let's take
a quick break. When we come back, we got Jeff
Ponce from Baseball America breaking down a bunch of prospects pitching, hitting.
It's gonna be a good time. Don't go anywhere, well,
be right back right here on Prospect one.

Speaker 3 (07:40):
Shay, I like you.

Speaker 1 (07:43):
I like you so much. I'm gonna make you my partner.
All he has to do is find the gold and
I'll share it with you. Fifty to fifty prospect.

Speaker 2 (07:54):
He is Jeff Ponce from Baseball America, one of my
dear friends who have been doing shows with for many,
many years. We're talking lots of prospects. We're talking rank changes,
guys that are on the rise, Guys you need to
pay attention to. And of course the big crazy story
out there, the Dever's trade and more really about the
return because that's kind of almost the forgotten piece of

(08:16):
the whole thing is like, by the way, there are
some prospects to break down that they got and all
the craziness that's going on. But Jeff probably been a
wild couple of weeks with the trade stuff that's out there.
You got the draft that's going on with the combine.
Little busy over at BA right now for you.

Speaker 3 (08:31):
Yeah, man, it doesn't stop this time of year and
kind of just pushes right through to the trade deadline.
You know, I think like our busy season really does
start kind of the late period of May.

Speaker 1 (08:45):
As we're updating.

Speaker 3 (08:46):
You know, all the June updates are typically our biggest
update as we give it a little bit longer before
we make some wide scale changes throughout our top thirties,
and you know, then we we sort of moved right
into College World Series and you know, the tournament and
the regionals and all that stuff that precedes it.

Speaker 1 (09:07):
Cape Codley kicks off.

Speaker 3 (09:10):
You know, of course we have the All Star Game
and a lot of promotions for a lot of prospects,
and then the Draft, which you know, I think a
lot of us that rank prospects by the end of
July are very excited to see the players get drafted
and sign and then have this new sort of something
different ash of talented players to move into the top.

(09:32):
I mean, just look back to you know what it
was a year ago, and how many of those guys
are now top one hundred prospects.

Speaker 2 (09:37):
So one of those guys are in the majors. Yeah,
one of those guys that were drafted in the majors.
Are you going to be at All Star Game again?
I know last year, last couple of years, I think
you've been kind of one of the main faces over
at BA DOES. I forget what you guys call it,
but you guys have like the whatever prospect circle or something,
and you get a lot of the prospects prospect pad
that's what is prospect pad, and you get a lot

(09:58):
of those guys to come in. Are you going to
be Are you gonna be one of the hosts of
that again?

Speaker 3 (10:02):
Yeah? I think we're gonna do like we did last
year a little bit like less interviews live and that
sort of thing. It's more an opportunity to get some
FaceTime with with some players for the Futures Game as
they roll into town, just chat a little ball.

Speaker 2 (10:18):
Who do you want? Who do you want to get
some FaceTime with? If you could just pick somebody, you
got to pick favorites, but like, I don't know, maybe
something you haven't talked to. You got to preind of
presume who's going to be in the Futures Game and
stuff like that. But if you could pick someone to
get a little FaceTime with, who would it be?

Speaker 3 (10:34):
Yeah, I think you know, probably Argentamala. You know, I
haven't had a chance to speak with him. I think
there's probably a good chance he's going to be out
here in New Hampshire, maybe even following the trade deadline,
just kind of based on his production and you know
how he's sort of trending, so he's won. I think
probably you know, Peyton Toley or Brandon Clark, if either

(10:55):
of those guys end up at the Futures Game. I
think both those guys would be interesting to chat with
a little bit. I just did an article on Red
Sox pitching development and sort of their heavy breaking ball usage,
and totally's one of the few guys that has really
high fastball usage, So I think it would be interesting
to sort of talk about how he approaches each start
and some of the challenges that he's been sort of

(11:18):
tasked with overcoming by the Red Sox as well.

Speaker 2 (11:21):
Well, some guys we're going to talk about actually here
in just a little bit. Well, I hope that I
always enjoy with the Prospect Pad. I've liked that you
guys have done that. I like seeing you up there specifically,
so I hope you get to talk to some of
those guys. And I'm waiting, by the way, I don't know,
there's like a little slim chance, well she might be
out the at that we just got to see if
some credentials get approved and when the hell that happens

(11:43):
and everything, so there's a small chance, but the Prospect
Pad be on the lookout for that. I love it,
all right, So let's get into some prospect breakdowns. The
biggest thing kind of cross the space has been obviously
that Dever's trade and you know, lots of stuff with it.
You've been doing great coverage on it, but I think
maybe the most like forgotten piece of all of it

(12:04):
is the actual prospects that were traded to the Red Sox,
because they're just kind of thrown into this. The Red
Sox got nothing, and at the end of the day,
I personally believe like this was not probably in three
different tiers, the best you could have done. There's many
ways you could have gotten better prospects by giving up

(12:25):
or taking on a little bit more money, maybe if
you were a little bit more aggressive, even in this
same space. I mean, at the end of the day,
I'm not sure if there was any other team that
was really willing to take on the severity of the money,
and that kind of seemed to be all about it.
But you know, this had a lot more personal and
business decision than it was for the ball club. And
and maybe I'm even misstating that because if they're really

(12:45):
if the rumors were true about like you know, Devers
being upset about the young players and stuff like that,
maybe I'm I'm underplaying that. But at the end of
the day, one of the big things you could look
at is like they should have gotten more, and that's
what everybody is focused on. The focus doesn't really get
centered a ton around the main pieces, and Coyle Harrison's
a little bit out of the space that we even

(13:07):
need to really talk about. We kind of know who
he is. But James Tibbs, that's the really interesting one.
And there there's been some stuff coming out that there
are people in different circles that believe James Tibbs is
actually really the main piece of this trade, the thing
that long term we might get excited about. I'm not
so sure about that. But you got Tibbs and Jose Bao.
So that's what I wanted to talk about. I want

(13:28):
to get your take, James Tibbs, San Francisco, Giant Prospect
going up to Double A kind of one of the
main big pieces. What's your breakdown? You can obviously comment
anything you want on this entire process, but you know,
what is your thought process as an analyzer? And also,
you know, a Red Sox fan. Getting James Tibbs into
this organization, is this a plus or kind of an an?

Speaker 3 (13:49):
Yeah, you know they've already pushed him up to Double A.

Speaker 1 (13:53):
So he's with Portland right now.

Speaker 3 (13:56):
Story came out last night that he's going to be
taking a few more reps at first base. They're going
to be getting him some work there, which is you know,
he's left handed throwing, left handed hitting, so sort of
fits right perfectly into that mix.

Speaker 2 (14:14):
You know.

Speaker 1 (14:14):
I think when you look at this.

Speaker 3 (14:15):
Deal and you look at the things that the Red
Sox value in particular, I think Tibbs checks all those boxes.

Speaker 1 (14:23):
He was somebody that they were on in the draft.

Speaker 3 (14:25):
Obviously, you know, they went with Montgomery, and I think
TIBs went a pick later. If I'm not mistaken, don't
have a layout in front of me. If my memory serves, I.

Speaker 2 (14:33):
Saw Red Sox fans, by the way, taking that, the
real angry ones taking that and being like they had
the chance to take Tibbs, they didn't even want them.
And it's like, well, guys, Fray Montgomery's pretty damn good too,
let's friget. I'm not sure that him not taking him
in favor of j Montgomery.

Speaker 3 (14:47):
They used to get like this guy Garrett Crochet, and
he's he's pretty good.

Speaker 1 (14:51):
He's all right, not too bad.

Speaker 3 (14:53):
But I think you look at like the EV's or
are pretty good. The high end evs aren't crazy, but
like his EV nineties good, his EV seventies good, the
average is like ninety point six, which is over a
mile per hour higher than MLB average in twenty twenty five.
The angles are pretty good, like an eleven point six
degree average launch angle, seventeen percent barrel rate, eighteen percent

(15:16):
chase rate, twenty five percent sort of misrate. Overall, you know,
his end zone swing is average to maybe a little
bit above. But I think the big number here is
three eighty eight x wOBA, the red Sox value x wOBA.
Across their organization, especially their analysts, they'll be working on
in trade like this, and that's the sort of stuff

(15:38):
that they buy into. I think they see these trades
and they believe, hey, this is a player that maybe
we can unlock even more with our batspeed training program
and getting him to swing the bat a little bit faster,
maybe finding some more top end evs that I think
you know, having watched TIBs as an amateur out here
on the Cape for a summer where he won the
home run derby if I'm a mountain staker, and second,

(16:00):
I can't remember that, but you know, impressive power and
hitting all throughout the summer. Not the greatest athlete, but
I think you know good enough in a corner that
he can play left field, right field when you need him.
And now the fact that he's getting some reps at
first base I think really fits the profile and the
bat might be of that quality. So a nice piece
that they got back. You know, I have him, at

(16:21):
least from a real life standpoint, not a fantasy standpoint,
I had him about eleven or twelve in the system,
just behind like Dobbins who since graduated, and Fits who
probably is a couple starts away from graduating.

Speaker 1 (16:33):
But both guys that I think at this point.

Speaker 3 (16:34):
Are kind of low end number fives for a major
league team, and you know there's some value to that.
Tibb's upside is probably higher for fantasy, of course than
either of those guys. If I was doing a straight
fantasy ranking, I think he's probably somewhere in the top ten,
though I would still have him behind the password.

Speaker 2 (16:51):
And that's also because the Red Sox are pretty stacked
or Yeah, for the Giants, this is probably like three
or four or something like that.

Speaker 1 (17:00):
It's one of their top part prospects.

Speaker 2 (17:01):
Yeah, it was one of that. Yeah, So again it's
like pretty serviceable return. We'll see what that materializes. Maybe
you know, long term, you think of you can think
of ballpark factors as well. If you're hitting in Boston
versus hitting in San Francisco, there's like a little bit
of an extra especially some of the you know, the
analytical work that the Red Sox have done in there,

(17:21):
like when they get higher up in the organization, maybe
they can unlock a little bit more. Do you have
anything on Jose Bayo? I know a lot of people
have kind of talked about that. I don't know if
anybody ever, regardless, especially when you're in the lower levels,
is a true relief because a lot of people are like, well,
this is relief only, relief only, like he's got starts,
he started. I kind of don't ever believe when you
see guys like Emiliano Toyoto throw like he does and

(17:44):
then a team spends a whole season having him be
a starter, like, no one's ever a true true reliever.
But do you have any takes on Jose Bayo, who's
a twenty year old He's going to be over in
complex now, you know, solid season so far. Is there
is there better potential upside? Do you think this is
just like a future relief piece if we even see it.

Speaker 3 (18:04):
Yeah, I mean, I think it's an interesting little level
arm with some projection, and you can sort of see
how it might scale out, whether it's as a reliever
or maybe there's still some chance that he is potentially
a starter.

Speaker 1 (18:19):
There's velocity there.

Speaker 3 (18:21):
He's got a really interesting curveball, and I kind of
wonder if that was the driving force behind, like why
they went after him. You know, sits eighty five to
eighty six twenty six hundred twenty eight hundred rpm in
terms of the average spin, it's got some depth that like,
you know, six to seven inches of negative induced vertical

(18:42):
break in about six to seven inches of sweep, so
kind of a slurvy you know, curveball, but harder. And
he's had you know, some decent success. He's got a
weird fastball. It sits like ninety three to ninety five
not it's it's almost like a sink cutter, like it
doesn't have ride. It sinks, but not a lot of

(19:05):
arms side run like very little. So it's an unusual pitch.
And you know, the numbers this year and rookie ball
were actually really really good against it had a thirty
three percent in zone whiff rate, and you know it
was in the zone fair amount of the time, fifty
six percent zone rate on that sixty eight percent strike
rate overall. So he's got he's got some control, he's

(19:27):
got some fastball command, which is always a really good
place to start when you're talking about a nineteen year
old pitcher with projectable stuff.

Speaker 1 (19:35):
So I think, in another interesting arm in the system.

Speaker 2 (19:37):
But definitely probably not what any of us thought when
you the idea of like Devors being traded and the
pieces that are coming back. It's wild, but luckily the
system is stacked. You know. That is one of the
big things. Whether the Red Sox want to continue development
with some of these young guys, because I actually want
to talk about I think one of the biggest risers
so far this year, or they want to use those
pieces long term in making bigger deals.

Speaker 1 (20:00):
You know.

Speaker 2 (20:00):
The hidden secret I think has been that, you know,
you make this trade for devs for probably a lot
of reasons that isn't necessarily just you know, the bat,
but it doesn't mean that they're sellers, you know, like
they they can end up going and buying and they
can improve this team because they do have the assets,
you know, to make some of these moves, and it

(20:20):
could be from guys like you know, the password that
could be traded, one guy that I just I think
might be off limits and you can tell me otherwise.
And this is like a little section of just some
guys that seem to have really risen up. I think
everybody's ranks, especially your guys is on your new update
to top one hundred people can check out over on
Baseball America is Franklinarius. You know, Franklinarius with a two

(20:43):
three twenty five average so far this year, four homers,
nine stolen bases, really incredible, just discipline. You know, we're
gonna I'll just say right now, we're gonna talk about
Louis Pyanna after this. But there's kind of like a
little striking resemblance and just like approaches, especially when you
just see like front on swings in just kind of
like easy control the way they attack the ball. Paying

(21:07):
has obviously got to think more power projection. But Arius
has just been a huge boon this year for the
for the Red Sox. He's flying up boards. I'm not
really you don't have to touch on like is he untouchable?
But like, do you think this is that next truly
big red SOX prospect. Do you think we are warranted
and justified for him to be going up in value

(21:28):
in stock like he is, or do you think it's
a little premature because of the lower levels maybe you know,
arguably maybe tiny bit undersized or whatever. What do you
think on Franklinarius, who you guys, I believe have in
the thirties, thirty one something like that, like somewhere in
that general vicinity.

Speaker 1 (21:41):
Yeah, I'll have to double check.

Speaker 3 (21:44):
You know, He's he's an interesting one because you know,
he's been as high as I think, like top ten
for Keith and his uh Keith law and his most
recent top one hundred update where you know, I think
with Arius, for us we have him sixty one actually,
so he's outside the top fifty.

Speaker 2 (22:04):
Oh okay, okay. I think I'm thinking by.

Speaker 3 (22:06):
The way we've been painting, we have very high. We've
been positive about Arius. I think like there's maybe some
internal debate. He's an interesting player because I think if
you kind of just look at the stat line with him,
you can maybe paint a picture of a player that
isn't necessarily the player that he is. In particular, when

(22:28):
it comes to like the stolen base numbers. He's stole
thirty five bags last year and some of that stuff.
He's not really a great runner. He's really like a
below average to kind of fringe average runner, So he's
not a burner. Has decent instincts in the bases, but
I think if you look at the numbers, he's been
getting caught a little bit more this year. This is

(22:49):
heavily a hit tool guy. This is a guy where
you're kind of banking on plus bats of ball ability,
strong swing decisions. In concert with that, it's maybe a
little bit more chase my draw than it is you know,
some sort of twitchy, exciting, you know, middle infielder.

Speaker 1 (23:07):
You know, like you know, it's not Francisco Lindoor.

Speaker 3 (23:11):
But I do think he's a guy that, you know,
right handed bat, makes a lot of contact, really tough
to strike out.

Speaker 1 (23:18):
The angles are starting to get a little bit better
over the last month.

Speaker 3 (23:21):
After kind of not catching any barrels in April, he's
catching a few more. He's had four home runs I
think since since May second, and a couple over the
last week. So I guess you have to ask yourself
from like a fantasy perspective. Okay, like, this guy's not
going to probably be a twenty steel guy. He's probably
not going to be a twenty homer guy. So a

(23:43):
lot of his value is going to be tied to
batting average, on base percentage and him kind of maybe
exceeding that home run number of like twelve to fourteen
and getting into the fifteen to eighteen range.

Speaker 1 (23:55):
Right, So he's.

Speaker 3 (23:56):
Got He's a guy that's gonna his numbers are going
to be heavily supported by count stats. It's maybe a
little bit more like Bobaschett like and not what we
thought Baschette was or like that beaks Peak seasons, but
kind of what he's settled into.

Speaker 1 (24:10):
So I think that's a very good player.

Speaker 3 (24:12):
I think from a real life perspective, the defense is
really good. He has a shot to stick at shortstop.
The arm is better than I think a lot of
people realize. If he ends up at second base, he's
going to be a really good defensive second basement. So
that stuff will keep him in the lineup for fantasy
and I think is really valuable for a real life

(24:32):
major league organization. I just think I would pump the
brakes a little bit in terms of like where he
would rank on a fantasy list. The models are going
to like him, Robo Scout likes him, Dylan likes him
a lot. Yeah, low strikeouts, high end, and I think
like it gives you a true understanding of the floor
and of like this is a major league quality hitter

(24:54):
and a guy that's, you know, going to be able
to at least hang in the majors. But I think
we've seen with my drop he's been a pretty good
all around player. He hasn't been like a superstar fantasy wise,
so you know, I guess that's kind of where I
would pump the brakes on Arius. I think he's a
very good prospect. I think he's a top one hundred prospects.

(25:16):
I think if we come back in a year and
we're like, hey, frankin Arius is above average evs and
his angles are really good, that would send for me.
That would push him into that top forty, top thirty,
maybe even top twenty five sort of range. But you know,
I think we've seen historically there's a lot of guys
like this who are solid major leaguers, but getting that

(25:38):
like top one hundred player in a redraft format sort
of value from him for three to five years is
probably unlikely.

Speaker 2 (25:47):
Yeah, I guess I wanted to ask you, like anything
is possible, you know it's not says a lot not
a Linditar process like this is development. But like if
you had ti bet that he is able to the
old adage of powers the last tool to develop, if
you had to make the bet that he's going to
unlock this you know, above average or solid power or

(26:09):
it stays kind of in the same general vicinity. Is
your bet that he's not going to unlock that twenty
plus power or do you think like he's swaying his
approach maybe how the Red Sox work with guys you
know that that is going to be unlockable.

Speaker 3 (26:24):
Yeah, I guess I would probably put it at like
a twenty percent because it's hard to write off guys
that have this level of battle control and just understanding
of not only the zone and like what pitches to attack,
but kind of you know how to hit them right,
Those guys, I think tend to make that adjustment. I
guess I would bump it a little bit because of

(26:44):
the Red Sox having really good success with this kind
of profile, which is a guy who has really high
level plate skills, meaning of course sort of the when
I say plate skills, I mean the combination of bets
of all ability and then all the elements of swing
decisions and then you know, kind of adding some horse
power and getting those guys to swing harder and you

(27:04):
can give up a little swing and miss when you
have the contacts and the bats of ball skills that
a guy like Arius has. So I think that's probably
maybe twenty five to thirty percent for Arius, But I
just think maybe he could be limited just by his
physical stature and just you know, how much weight and
strength that he can potentially add and you know, the

(27:27):
next five years even because I think you know that's
the thing when you say it's not a linear process.
In five years, Arius is going to be twenty four
years old, so you know, at nineteen as young as
he is in High A and hitting well by the way,
in Hi A has an eight point five percent k
R eight and the seven point four percent walk rate.

(27:49):
You know, sort of not quite Jacob will see.

Speaker 2 (27:52):
Just about to say it's a little Jacob Wilson s.

Speaker 1 (27:54):
But it's a little Jacob Wilson s.

Speaker 3 (27:56):
He's not as big as Wilson though, and I think
that's you know, maybe one of the positives checks that
Wilson had in his uh, you know, in his favor.
But at the same time, Wilson wasn't putting up you know,
well above average numbers in high A at nineteen, so you know,
it all kind of comes out in the wash.

Speaker 1 (28:12):
He's an interesting prospect.

Speaker 3 (28:14):
I don't want to write it off and say that's
not going to happen and be really like you know,
dug in about something. But you know, I do think
there's at least some reason to pump the breaks and
just giving it some context of like, this could happen,
but it still needs to manifest. And these are just
some of the reasons it could, and these are some
of the reasons that maybe it doesn't.

Speaker 2 (28:33):
All right, So a little break from the Red Sox
talk for a little bit. We're going to get a
couple of those pictures. But the player that I did
in at least in like just some front on visual
swing comparisons that I see some similarities in Franklinarius with
Luis Pania. And when you talk about Burwis prospects, it's
always about Jesus made but Obviously, Pania has been an
absolute monster this season. He's on a little bit of

(28:55):
a cold spell right now. That average was it was
over like three sixty, and I think it's hovering over
over three hundred just a bit right now. But you know,
I don't want to say that Louis Pana is not
getting like the coverage, because he's definitely getting the coverage,
but it has heavily resulted around Jesus made. I'm curious
at your take this is I mentioned this is in

(29:15):
the thirties, so least Peni has moved up into the thirties.
But you got people that are saying this is the
future number one overall pick. He's a slam dunk dunk,
top ten pick. He's had just this absolutely monstrous season.
But you guys have at least kind of given him
his flowers a little bit in that you've moved him
up pretty aggressively in the ranks. And I know this
is a combination of all of you guys, but hitting

(29:36):
three eight six homers, twenty eight stolen bases, and almost
nine hundred ops this year in single a really fantastic
do you and do you buy the justification of how
high he's moving up in the ranks, or do you
have any I don't know any concerns whatsoever. This is
really kind of a like do you buy the use
the future number one overall pick or do you think

(29:59):
this is another kind of like hype trained, really really
really going ballistic with a very young, impressive prospect.

Speaker 1 (30:07):
Yeah, you know, you know I tend to. I tend
to sort of buy into the profile here.

Speaker 3 (30:16):
With Pinya, just just like I do with with Made.

Speaker 1 (30:20):
Frankly, you know, I think.

Speaker 3 (30:23):
If you watch these guys consistently, and you know, I
watch a lot of Mudcats games a lot of my work.
Now with the ages that my kids are at, well
just about you know, fifteen, twelve and ten, I'm kind
of always running around and doing stuff and running to games.

(30:43):
So I try to optimize my ability to watch as
much baseball as possible by using multiple screens and kind
of really digging into MiLB TV. And by the way,
a lot of teams out there are kind of doing
the same thing with their scouting departments. So it's nice
because I can make my own snacks and sit in
my own comfy chair and watch all these different games.

Speaker 2 (31:01):
But they're not making you. They're not making you go
out to all the games and one hundred and twelve
degree whether.

Speaker 1 (31:06):
No, I don't have that, you're saying to have.

Speaker 3 (31:07):
You have stuff that's not televised out there and the
desert that's one hundred and something degrees. So we have
some people out there doing that. Shout out to Jesus Cano,
who's done a great job coming on. But where I'm
going with all this is I can sit back and
I can watch Jesus Made, and I can watch Louis
Pana and really just like an overall very interesting team.

(31:29):
You know, there's four or five prospects on that squad
that I think are are worth tuning into. But I
think you look at both of these guys and you
know they both do a lot of things really really well.
I think, you know, the on base ability plus the
bats of all skills for Made, give me for Gi,

(31:52):
give him the edge for me.

Speaker 1 (31:54):
That's what I'm trying to say. A little bit better defender.

Speaker 3 (31:57):
I think when you watch the abats as well, he's
a little less polished than Paynya is.

Speaker 1 (32:05):
You know, just the angles aren't quite there.

Speaker 3 (32:07):
He's a little bit more aggressive and there's just a
little bit more explosion in the swing. And I explain
this because I think it is reasonable if you watch
these guys, you look at the numbers, you make some calls.
Even you will get some people who think Louis Paena
is the superior prospect to Jesus Made. And it's never

(32:29):
even a knock on Madi. It's just this guy is
that good. Now, what makes Payna so unique is he
has those really good bats of ball skills. He has
that approach. He's a little bit more aggressive in terms
of trying to put the ball in play versus made
at this point, and there's a reason for that. Really
good angles on contact. That's the difference between him and

(32:52):
Mady at this point. And you know, I think that
it's why his ISO is a little bit higher. He's
hit maybe a couple more homers even though playing less games,
and I think it's because his angles are consistently really good.
Some of that might be the fact that Madi is
a switch hitter and you know, has to work on
two swings as opposed to you know, just sort of

(33:13):
optimizing his one. But overall, I think you look at
Peina and you say, Okay, this guy has the bats
of ball ability.

Speaker 1 (33:22):
He's showing some.

Speaker 3 (33:23):
Power he had. I've written about this early in the season.
He was one of the big exit velocity jumpers across
the entirety of the minor leagues at full season levels.

Speaker 1 (33:32):
Year over year.

Speaker 3 (33:33):
He added some strength and some power and some batspeed
this offseason, and he didn't sacrifice any of those things
that made him really good in his pro debut in
the DSL. The bats of ball ability and the approach
and so the numbers have been have been really good.
You know, the contact rate is plus his swing rate,

(33:54):
like as I said, is a little bit higher. You
look at like a guy like Made. You know, his
swing rate is about forty percent where pain is about
fifty percent. He's a little bit more aggressive, different type
of a hitter. But you know, I think if you
look at the batted ball data and just sort of
what his profile is really sort of even splits between

(34:15):
line drives, ground balls, fly balls, he shows the ability
to hit the ball to his pull side in the
air already. So I think a lot of his hit
tool is already sort of fully formed and it's just
a matter of adding in the secondary pieces and just
refining it a little bit more where I think you
look at Made is a little bit more of like
almost like a wild stallion, where it's like, this guy

(34:37):
could be the fastest horse in the world or something,
and when you know, the triple crown, but he's sort
of got to got to get some of that just
discipline in terms of his game, and you don't want
to take all that because I think that's kind of
what makes Made so exciting to watch, is that he
is explosive and has a little bit of like that
Akunya Soto swagger to him as well with his big

(34:59):
takes the show.

Speaker 2 (35:00):
Part of the thing why two people People are like
why are why are neither one of these or more specifically,
why is Made not already moved up to hig A
and press him more? And it's like because of that,
like they want to see consistency over time, They want
to see them be able to kind of meet that
call if they You can also know if a guy
is at a level where they're a little bit too
aggressive and they push him higher, it might kind of
I don't call it stunting, but you know, there might

(35:22):
be kind of a little bit of a wake up call.
Two quick follow ups on this end of season. Luis
Pain is a top ten prospect on Baseball America's list. Yeah,
your name, I think.

Speaker 1 (35:32):
Yeah, I think it. It was discussed this time.

Speaker 3 (35:37):
It's just we didn't quite get there yet on moving
them over Missierowski, who could potentially who could potentially graduate
by the end of the summer. So, and I think
that's what we'll see too, is there's a lot of
names very close to the major leagues or kind of
on the cusp of graduating that are in that top
twenty five. So as a lot of those guys filter

(35:58):
out and a lot of graduation Matt Shaw and others
have happened over the last couple of weeks, I think
there's a chance that he continues to move up the
top one hundred, and if he continues to do this,
goes up to highest Wisconsin and hits in high A
in the Midwestley, which isn't the easiest hitting environment.

Speaker 1 (36:15):
I think there's no reason to sort of knock it.
And I think that the tough thing with.

Speaker 3 (36:20):
The Brewers organization and their prospects and how aggressive they
are with them isn't all that dissimilar from like the
outfield prospects and the Dodger system, where like there's no
place to send Hope and Serota and data and Depaula
at this point, and there's kind of like there's no
place to send the you know, the infield there's up
a level because you know, every team kind of has

(36:43):
a pretty nice.

Speaker 1 (36:44):
Middle infield within the organization.

Speaker 3 (36:47):
So it's one of those good problems to have, but
I think it explains one of the reasons that some
of those guys haven't been promoted as aggressively as they
might be in a more shallow organization.

Speaker 1 (36:56):
You're do.

Speaker 2 (36:56):
You do great at being able to analyze it from
a fantasy perspective because you've done it so long. Just
is a quick these three guys, what's the order you
want from a fantasy perspective? Luis Pana, JJ Weatherhold, Connor Griffin.

Speaker 3 (37:10):
Connor Griffin won Pnia Weatherholt, and I don't dislike Weatherholt.
I just think we're closer to a fully formed version
of what he is. He can run a little bit,
there's some power, but he really doesn't sell out for it.
He's a hit tool guy that will have enough counting
stats to be really really valuable. Where I think Connor

(37:32):
Griffin could be Fernando Tatist junior. Like I think Connor
Griffin is like a top ten fantasy pick in Dynasty.

Speaker 1 (37:40):
He looks electric, he's electric, and like everything keeps getting better.
You know.

Speaker 3 (37:44):
The approach, it was like, oh, he needs to make contact.
He made a ton of contact in the zone and
was hitting for power and was really productive in a
tough place to do that in the Florida State League.
And then they're like, hey, but the approach is bad,
and it was like, oh, contreer, hold on a second,
my approach.

Speaker 1 (37:59):
Now that happens, he gets the bump up to High
A and.

Speaker 3 (38:03):
Then he's one of the best hitters cross minor league
baseball in his first week in High A, and greenspor
was a great place to hit. So I think the
sky's a limit with him. I think he's the kind
of guy where you could look a year from now
and be like, yeah, we thought he would be the
number one overall prospect, Like I am so bought in
on Connor Griffin, and I think, like, when you think

(38:25):
about his background and how athletic he is two a
guy from Mississippi, so he wasn't seeing the highest level
of competition outside of summer ball and travel. He wasn't
playing against crazy high schools like you see in California
and Texas or Florida or Georgia or even Arizona, where
you are like, he was kind of facing below average competition, frankly,

(38:46):
and the fact that he's grown by such leaps and
bounds and is such an impressive athlete. You know, he
looks like a like an NFL combine tight end that
sets a bunch of records at the combine, Like he's
that kind of freaky out. You look at the bottom
body and how big his shoulders are and broad he
is already, and You're like, he can still add another

(39:08):
twenty five pounds of muscle and not slow down, Like
he looks like a major dude.

Speaker 2 (39:11):
I'm all right, last hitter we're going to talk about. Then,
I want to get to some pitching. You've already mentioned
him before. He is the guy that you want to
get some FaceTime with at the futures game. Argin 'mala,
argin Namala. Had you know, I remember, I definitely had
some criticism in the very beginning stages of that first
year he was drafted and just kind of that big
upper thought of how people were treating him, and it

(39:33):
was really rough. I remember, I think I talked to
you about it and kind of that rough early go.

Speaker 1 (39:37):
But it is click.

Speaker 2 (39:38):
Things are clicking, and I think that's the big key
here because in the high price of the acquisition kind
of tumbled down. It would have been a great time
to get him, because now he is skyrocketing up. He's
putting a big EV's eleven homers. He's up at high
A right now to sixty seven, almost a one hundred
OBP points up strike out. Something to watch. But he

(39:58):
looks like a really big, big premium like big bat.
I mean he has currently got and try to do
the numbers in. I think his twenty nine extra base
hits of his sixty four hits so far this season
really phenomenal, really good approach. He's very exciting and it's
kind of jumping up from a fantasy perspective. You can
get your take on Argent Namala in his rise because
I want to say again I could be confusing because

(40:20):
I'm not looking at the Baseball America Top one hundred,
which everyone should do. But I want to say themal
is closer to Pana than he was to Franklin Arius.
I want to say Tomala was in like the thirty range,
so throw just throw some nuggets on Namala for us.

Speaker 1 (40:33):
He's in the forties.

Speaker 3 (40:34):
I believe maybe he just moved up to like the
late thirties because of some graduations, but is a top
fifty prospect. I think the thing with me in Namala
is the growth in terms of the hit tool over
the last year has been tremendous. I mean, this drike
out rate is like twenty percent right now in Higa
as a nineteen year old, and by modern standards that's

(40:56):
above average. The contact numbers are there as well. Well,
that's all ticked up. I was talking about it earlier.
I think his swinging strike rated low a last year
was thirteen point eight percent is down to like eleven
point seven eleven point six, So pretty big growth just
in terms of like how many times he's swinging and

(41:16):
missing just overall. Certainly in the zone. The angles have
always been excellent for Nomala. That's something that he's kind
of naturally always had the ability to back spin the
ball off the barrel consistently and pretty cleanly, and to
his pull side as well. The powers up a little
bit more, though I think we always thought that was
going to come. I think the approach to it hasn't

(41:41):
been a matter of him necessarily walking more or anything
like that. It's more he's showing traits of like really
discerning balls from strikes and good pitches to hit and
stuff to lay off of. And he's done that with
you know, kind of low ring the chase rate a
little bit, but also keeping the swing rate right about

(42:05):
the same as what it was, So that shows me
that balance the end zone swing rate has been pretty
good as well. He's not taken a lot of cookies,
so he's making pitchers work to get him out. And
you know, he's one of the youngest players in the
Northwest League, will be nineteen until October. I think that's
the crazy thing is you look at this player and
you say, this guy could be in Double A for

(42:26):
multiple months at nineteen years old, and that's fairly unheard
of among sort of American prospects that don't get drafted
in the top ten out of high school. So I
think things have really ticked up for him, and he's
considered kind of in that really exciting group of young
talentsed middle infielders at both levels of a ball right

(42:48):
now that are kind of backfilling the rest of our
top fifty right now with guys like Made and Pegna,
Connor Griffin and others. You know, we've already touched on
a few of them, and unfortunately Bryce Rainner got hurt.
He was another one that was kind of in that mix.
But yeah, I think you know, Namala right now was
a guy that a year ago I thought it was

(43:08):
a below average hit tool. And you know, he's getting
fifty even fifty five grades and he's an excellent defender
at shortstop. So he's a guy that there's no questions
about him sticking there long term.

Speaker 2 (43:17):
Yeah, and I want to categorically if he almost turns
into similar to like a junior Camonio, where it's like
averages are similar homers, you know, I mean Caminaro right
now is like seventeen homers, two stolen bases, two sixty average.
You know, you wonder what direction if maybe he becomes
something like that offshoot guy as a third basement now,
but Namal is very, very impressive and moving up. All right,
let's talk about pictures. I want to talk about a

(43:38):
negative before we do some interesting kind of debate ones
in your guys' ranks. You and I personally off Aaron.
We've talked on air about Noah Schultz, and Noah Schultz
is just not having the season I think most people
assumed we were going to end up getting out of him.
I think disappointing. It's weird to say because it's like
disappointing in that he's in Triple A right now and

(44:00):
he still has a three and a half for just
under three and a half ERA, but the strikeouts have
been weird, really high whip so far this season just
looked a little bit off from maybe the conversations of
him being the number one overall pitching prospect, and I
think you know that might be opening up to like
who do you rather have Gauge or Hagen or him
or maybe Gauge You could throw those out. It's a

(44:21):
little curious here in that there's more negative conversations around
a guy that has a barely over three ERA and
is in Triple A at twenty one years old. I'd
love to get your take on where you are. You
also posted a really great article some time ago about
I think it was an interesting pitch mixes. Pitch mix
with eight different pictures. I highly suggest you go and
check that out. You can find it on Jeff's Twitter,

(44:42):
of course, But talk to us about Noah Schultz and
what you think maybe has gone wrong and where he
kind of he's valued. What pictures is he valued around
right now?

Speaker 3 (44:52):
Yeah, I think you know, the sort of like top
five pictures in the minors. As probably he dissipated a
little bit like that conversation around Schultz. I still think
he's a top fifty prospect. I think some of this
was kind of predictable coming into this season. This is

(45:13):
a guy that had never seen the fifth inning in
his career. You know, so far this year he's gotten
into or out of the fifth one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight,
So you know, in I guess about two thirds of
his starts.

Speaker 1 (45:33):
He's made twelve starts this year.

Speaker 3 (45:36):
So I think you look at that and you sort
of have to take a step back and say, you know,
what are my expectations here for a guy that, I think,
dating back to high school even had never gone this
deep into a game and is a little bit unusual
in terms of his size, but also you know his
arm action and how low that slot is and how
things look facing double A competition, where I think is

(46:00):
really where the rubber meets the road in terms of
much better quality lineups, where you're seeing legitimate professionals at
that point, even if they're like high level or guys,
they're probably guys that have stuck around that long because
they performed and put.

Speaker 1 (46:12):
Together a good at bat. So I think that's some
of it.

Speaker 3 (46:16):
The swing and misses down a little bit, I think
at times because guys lay off of the stuff. But
as you said, he hasn't been altogether bad. He's not
giving up a lot of home runs. He's still keeping
the ball on the ground at a pretty high rate.

Speaker 1 (46:33):
You know.

Speaker 3 (46:33):
While the swinging strike rate numbers have been kind of down,
they kind of haven't.

Speaker 1 (46:39):
Been year over year.

Speaker 3 (46:41):
They're down from high A, but it's in line with
what is his average was last year eleven point seven
eleven point eight last year. So I think it's just
sort of the typical bumps and bruises that you take
as a pitching prospect during development. Now if we see
that the command is a bigger issue, you know, over

(47:01):
the course of a lot of starts, uh and over
the course of you know, a year plus then I
think it really gets concerning a guy that's this big
and left handed, it has this kind of nasty stuff.
I would almost be surprised if they didn't struggle with
command at some point in time. That's kind of typically
the bugaboo with these bigger pitchers with huge stuff. And

(47:25):
you know, I hate to invoke the Randy Johnson comp
but he gets a lot of those comps from scouts,
and I think if you look at the history with Johnson,
it took him a while to figure it out. It's
kind of the same on the hitting side. It takes
switch hitters typically a little bit longer to optimize because
there's just different things that they have to deal with

(47:46):
than other guys. And I think that's what happens when
you're six ten, six eleven like Schultz's. I mean, this
is a this is an NBA center, you know, throwing
you know, mid nineties from the left side, and it's
just so unusual.

Speaker 2 (47:59):
What like, So, do you think that one point five
to nine whip he had a point nine to eight
last year, the point one point five to nine whip
is more abnormal to his potential future than it is
the norm. Is that does that sound probably more appropriate
because it's a dramatic jump of a whip, and it
obviously is like the way that he's giving up contact

(48:20):
versus walks and stuff like that is obviously accounting to it.

Speaker 3 (48:23):
But it's a lot of it's a lot of ground balls.
If you watch the starts, he gets dinked and dunked
a lot. It's not a great defensive infield there, and
there's a lot of ground balls that kind of squeak through,
which is why I think that the jump has come
in batting.

Speaker 1 (48:37):
Average, because it certainly hasn't come in terms of.

Speaker 3 (48:40):
Like you know, uh, fly balls or you know, real
sort of damage.

Speaker 1 (48:50):
It's the walks.

Speaker 3 (48:51):
You know, a fourteen point four percent walk rate versus
a six point seven percent walk grate a year ago
makes a difference. But you know, when you're also not
exposed to the lineup the second time through, it's gonna
mask some.

Speaker 1 (49:03):
Of that stuff, you know.

Speaker 3 (49:04):
So you know, I was never quite as high as
other people on Schultz because there were some things that
I was like, it's a sweeper and you know, it's
a it's a sinker.

Speaker 1 (49:17):
Like there was some stuff there that I was like, yeah,
it could be really good.

Speaker 3 (49:22):
So I guess now it's kind of gotten more in
his production has been more in line, and I think
people perspective on him is a little bit more in
line with what I've thought for a little bit. So
I'm less alarmed because I just I figured there were
going to be bumps in the road, especially as he
started to stretch out, because it was always concerning to

(49:43):
me that he was never going more than four innings.

Speaker 2 (49:46):
I really thought this one was interesting because of this
sandwich and in the in your guys' more recent update,
there was this kind of like sandwich of starting pitchers,
and you had Peyton Totley, and then the other piece
of that bread was and Clark, and in between it
was a noun red Sox pitcher. And am I saying
I've always said, Trey ya savage? Is it Trey Yesovich, No,

(50:07):
it's your savage. Okay, it is your savage, Tim Kannak,
get your stuff together, man, it's a savage, buddy.

Speaker 3 (50:12):
So like I thought it was that, and then I
was corrected by him, So it's just savage.

Speaker 2 (50:16):
Yeah, perfect, Okay, I was doing it right. Remember remember
our old Kelnick thing where it was like I was
correcting or I was correcting everybody on Kellennick, and then
I think you were like, I think, well, she's saying
it wrong. I'm like, no, I'm the one that's correcting
everybody on it, tice in their names because Kelnick literally.

Speaker 1 (50:33):
He did the silent in the middle. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (50:35):
Yeah, it's so weird, but it's it's this interesting sandwich here.
You got totally above you, Savage, Brandon Clark right below.
There's so many interesting things about all of these players.
You Savage with the splitter, but the overhand stuff Clark
in like is it gonna play the full starter stuff?
Totally kind of a bulldog up there. I'm just really

(50:56):
curious that, like, you don't have to go along on this,
But what got totally over you? Savage? Who's been you know,
no pun intended, absolute savage of the season, just strike
out numbers across the board? What gets you? And again,
I know this is an aggregate, so it might not
actually be you, but what do you think the argument
of totally over your savages? And how far behind even
though it is numerically next to it, how far behind

(51:18):
is maybe Brandon Clark from those other guys.

Speaker 3 (51:21):
Yeah, I think with totally like number one two aig I.
This is kind of his first full year of being
pitcher only in his life. What we saw was a
significant jump in fastball velocity. Like he's jumped on average
like three miles per hour from his numbers last year

(51:42):
at TCU, and he's got these really outlier characteristics. He
might have as much extension as anybody in baseball. It's
like seven and a half feet plus. I've seen some
TrackMan devices clock him at eight feet of extension.

Speaker 1 (51:57):
I don't think it was accurate.

Speaker 2 (51:59):
But isn't that weird too when the focus on like
Miserowski was like the crazy extension and stuff like that,
and he's just this big, long armed guy, and then
you compare that to totally that makes that kind of special.

Speaker 3 (52:09):
Yeah, and you know totally obviously being six', six so
he's a, big humongous, guy but he's built more like
a like a left, tackle you. Know he's a, big strong,
dude you, Know and and the velocity. CAME i think
it's a matter of improving the secondary. Stuff but for
me these, days LIKE i feel like so many of these,

(52:31):
guys if they have a quality fastball and have the
ability to command their, stuff they often can find a
better breaking ball or multiple breaking balls that they use
situationally to certain quadrants and really execute a game.

Speaker 1 (52:47):
Plan AND i Think totally's going to do.

Speaker 3 (52:49):
That you, know he has enough ability to spind a breaking,
ball feel for the change, up and you know velocity
THAT i think there's a lot of different. Pathways so
WHEN i look at a guy like, that he checks
the box of, like is he, physically as you, said
sort of a bulldog or?

Speaker 1 (53:04):
Horse he can do.

Speaker 3 (53:05):
That does he have the fastball velocity quality traits from
a movement velocity and release traits. Perspective he has all
that and then enough feel for a few secondaries that it's, like,
yeah these could, improve he could add other. Ones he's
sort of already building a foundation That i'm a little

(53:25):
bit more secure with than maybe the other.

Speaker 1 (53:27):
Guys You, savage you, know gets a ton of ride
in the.

Speaker 3 (53:31):
Fastball it's deceptive because of that catapult sort of like
arm action that he.

Speaker 1 (53:35):
Has the splitter is.

Speaker 3 (53:37):
Good he doesn't really have anything that moves glove, Side
like even his breaking ball kind of cuts a little,
bit so it doesn't really move glove.

Speaker 1 (53:45):
Side that's kind of my one reservation with You.

Speaker 3 (53:49):
Savage he's been really, good got beat up a little
bit early in first couple starts one including last night
in DOUBLE, a AND i think that's for.

Speaker 1 (53:57):
Him that's where the rubber is going to meet the.

Speaker 3 (53:59):
ROAD i just think the upside with The savage because
he doesn't have those really unusual release traits and you,
know sort of doesn't move the ball all different DIRECTIONS i,
have you, know maybe a little bit less excitement in
terms of WHERE i think the ceiling could potentially. Go
still really. GOOD i think it's a mid rotation starter

(54:21):
and could be a really good. ONE i just don't
see somebody that maybe could scale up and be a,
potential you, know all. Star AND i think that's what
you see with Totally clark from like a raw stuff
perspective is really. Interesting his forcing fastball is kind of.
Bad it's like a cut ride fastball that doesn't ride
or cut that.

Speaker 1 (54:40):
Much it's just kind of all. Velocity what would you
say you do around?

Speaker 2 (54:45):
Here like it's a cut, right really cut or?

Speaker 3 (54:47):
Ride, yeah he throws he throws a sinker and that's
a much better, pitch but you, know needs to kind
of refine that still in the command of that, pitch
and we got to see how that's going to play
IN doublea.

Speaker 1 (55:01):
Eventually the big selling point.

Speaker 3 (55:04):
With him is that slider is like it's like eighty
eight ninety miles an hour with like eleven ten eleven
twelve inches a, Sweep so it's a sweeper in like
the upper, eighties low. Nineties it's, crazy you, Know it's
just a crazy. Pitch he's had a lot of injury

(55:24):
issues and concerns dating back to his time as an.
Amateur the stripes weren't always. There they've been a lot
better this. YEAR i think The Red sox were doing
some interesting things with pitching, development and they're certainly going
to lean in on his. Traits he's been dealing with
this blister fingernail issue for a few weeks now and hasn't,
pitched SO i, think like with, him it's like The

(55:46):
misierowski thing when he kind of first hit the scene
right where it was like this guy could be, amazing
or he's going to be hurt and, missing you, know
walk in the, house and those are the. Concerns SO
i think those are still the concerns With. Clark it's
going to take a little bit longer to get that
stink off of him as a fifth rounder that was
a juco guy than it is with a totally or

(56:08):
savage who pitched in big, conferences pitched in big, games
faced a level amateur competition over and over.

Speaker 1 (56:15):
Again that's kind of where the different the different opinion.

Speaker 3 (56:21):
IS i Think lark could, jump but it's just he's
really got to go five innings and.

Speaker 1 (56:25):
Consistently, yeah is.

Speaker 2 (56:27):
The rank about like the? Upside is it about? Like
because because he's more of a raw player compared to
the other, two yet he's ranked right next to. Them
it's very just very intrigued by the combo of those
three players BECAUSE i think there's a lot of different
analysis you could put across the, board But clark seems
like the most, raw but those usually tend to indicate
like the highest upside of. Things click based on that, RANK.

Speaker 1 (56:49):
I think it could.

Speaker 3 (56:50):
Be, YEAH i mean it's just hard to write off
totally with those really outlier fastball characteristics and physical attributes
that just a.

Speaker 1 (56:58):
Lot and by the, Way clark that's a really good
extension as.

Speaker 3 (57:01):
WELL i think it's close to seven feet if it's
not a little, bob so you know he has those
traits as. Well it's just you, know we've seen totally do,
this AND i think there's also a narrative you can
kind of sell yourself of, like, hey he's, finally you,
know pitching full time for the first time in his,
life and all of his time and work is really
focused on that as opposed to having to pick up

(57:23):
the bat and you, know.

Speaker 2 (57:24):
Hit one of the last pitching ones and Then i'm
gonna just kind of rapid fire a couple of things for.
You but one of the ones that really jumped out
to me Was nolan McLain Versus Gauge jump And McLean
being Above Gauge. JUMP i love Because i'm a Big McLean,
guy AND i think there's an argument of like who's
the Best mets pitching? Prospect you could kind of have

(57:44):
that because there was sprot a tong is insane right.
Now McClain is also, nuts just a you, know nasty,
slider and he's put up insane numbers TO era sixty
five strikeouts on the. Year whip is. There but LIKE i,
thought it was interest that you guys took that Above
Gauge jump Because Gage jump has been the most popular

(58:06):
high rising guy who is just on the scene putting
up ridiculous, numbers AND i was really curious that you're
this is more, about you, know Analyzing nolan McLain here
and how your you guys are you specifically are more
comfortable with him over a guy Like Gauge, jump WHICH
i don't think would be a consensus thought amongst but
probably more like fantasy evaluation and stuff like.

Speaker 1 (58:27):
THAT i probably Like Gauge jump more THAN i Like.

Speaker 3 (58:31):
McLean i'd liked since he was in high, school man,
Like he's been one of my one of my sort
of cheese balls for four years, now just you, know
has always been a baller man, like he's one of
my favorite pitching.

Speaker 1 (58:46):
Prospects, so LIKE.

Speaker 3 (58:47):
I i probably would Draft Gauge jump for fantasy more
BEFORE i would take. McClain i think the the ranking,
though is reflective of a lot of front. Offices really like,
McClain the fact that he has multiple fastball. Shapes he's
another guy that doesn't have a great four, seamer but you,
know does have a good two seamer and can kind

(59:08):
of use that four Team, Situationally he's kind of What.

Speaker 1 (59:11):
Brandon clark wants to, be you, know.

Speaker 3 (59:15):
Excellent, slider probably a seventy slider maybe. Better it's a great.
Pitch another guy kind of like totally who was a
two ay guy At Oklahoma state and now you, know
it's kind of taken to full time pitching and it's
really showing.

Speaker 1 (59:29):
Well SO i think for, us he's just.

Speaker 3 (59:32):
A little bit. Closer he's got a longer track record
as a pro and having. Success this is his second full,
year you, know as a. Professional we're a jump you,
know didn't pitch a lot as an amateur in college
because he was injured AT, ucla missed a, season goes TO,
lsu was, good but not, great and when you have

(59:53):
to Replace Paul skeins is the ace of any team
that's gonna be a pretty tough.

Speaker 1 (59:59):
Gig but has been.

Speaker 3 (01:00:01):
Great AND i just think he's another guy with really
outlier fastball traits from the left, side the velocities. Up
his secondaries have been a lot. Better so, LIKE i
Like jump a little bit. More BUT i also, think
Like i'm kind of biased because it's like me thumping
my chest and, saying my, guy my guy should have
been a first round pick back in twenty twenty one or.

Speaker 2 (01:00:22):
Whatever you, know McLain Or Tom.

Speaker 1 (01:00:26):
TONG i Love tong.

Speaker 3 (01:00:27):
Too, Dude LIKE i did an interview With tom a
couple weeks, ago maybe a month, ago breaking down his
new change up grip and what he's doing. There great fastball.
Quality another guy with a ton of.

Speaker 1 (01:00:38):
Ride kind of.

Speaker 3 (01:00:39):
Cut, yes he gets he gets true cut ride, shapes
so it rides and it cuts and velocities up out
of that change. Up different slider this. YEAR i have
every confidence he'll figure out some breaking. Balls really analytical,
kid really interesting. Kid where McLain is just like a,
dude like he's a guy it's just been good at,

(01:01:00):
everything like you, know his entire life and just has
that like kind of kind of like star, mentality like
he's ready to go out there and compete and win
because you, know He's nolan. McClain AND i Think tong
is like A canadian, kid is just like a little
bit more. ANALYTICAL i had to figure out some things as,
well So i'm a little biased on that one. Too

(01:01:22):
mclan is, good Though i'm not knocking McClain.

Speaker 2 (01:01:24):
Anyways i'm asking you all the questions to not say
McClain by the, WAY i, know.

Speaker 3 (01:01:28):
LIKE i haven't rostered in multiple, leagues but, LIKE i
think it's tongueing than, him AND i think like for,
fantasy you can make a case for McLain because it's
a little more.

Speaker 1 (01:01:37):
Of a well rounded.

Speaker 3 (01:01:38):
Arsenal right, now he's In TRIPLE. A he's had success
In TRIPLE, a which is a very difficult environment to
pitch in with the challenge, system and you're facing a
lot of form and big leaguers and good prospects and
guys that have maybe have gotten a cup of coffee
and are really.

Speaker 1 (01:01:51):
Talented so.

Speaker 3 (01:01:53):
You, KNOW i still want to Roster McLean and pretty
much any league that has you, know fifth d to seventy,
prospects it's about as thin as you're going to see
for a dynasty.

Speaker 1 (01:02:03):
LEAGUE i THINK i still Want McLean and my.

Speaker 2 (01:02:05):
Roster all, right last, things these are going to be
strictly On jeff here prospector too that you think is
isn't being talked about?

Speaker 1 (01:02:14):
Enough, oh this is a good. One i'm going to
throw out.

Speaker 3 (01:02:18):
There, uh STARLIN H torres from The.

Speaker 1 (01:02:24):
REDS i don't know if you have you seen him at,
all by the, way.

Speaker 2 (01:02:29):
Well you've been out there In, arizona, yes because he
he is in comp was it complex last?

Speaker 3 (01:02:33):
Year this?

Speaker 1 (01:02:34):
Year, oh he's incomplete this?

Speaker 2 (01:02:36):
Year, yeah, yeah, YEAH i was actually JUST i was
just out with the he played DURING i think The imanaga,
game the one hundred and eight Win managa. Rebounds SO
i Think i've seen him a couple of. Times, yeah
last time he pitched was the. Fourteenth, okay, yeah, yeah,
yeah we've been last. Weekend but swinging miss stuff really.

(01:02:57):
Good arsenal.

Speaker 3 (01:02:59):
Commands all the metrics are clicking on this. Guy you,
Know ethan dorchis really. Interesting arm just got promoted up
to That carolina.

Speaker 1 (01:03:10):
Team this guy's.

Speaker 3 (01:03:12):
Better this was WHAT i broke down ten or twelve
Twelve Complex league pitchers last. Week this was the best,
guy AND i pulled like twenty five right BECAUSE i
wanted to see who's.

Speaker 1 (01:03:23):
Good this was the best GUY i broke.

Speaker 3 (01:03:25):
DOWN i think this is like legitimately somebody who needs
to be rostered in like any league where there's two
hundred and fifty to three hundred.

Speaker 1 (01:03:32):
Prospects he's been, really really. Good the stuff is.

Speaker 3 (01:03:36):
There maybe gets a promotion To daytona sometime.

Speaker 1 (01:03:40):
Soon he's really.

Speaker 3 (01:03:42):
Interesting he's a little undersized at like six feet and
he's a right, hander but the stuff is there and
like he's competing and all the reports we've been really really.
Good so he's kind of the GUY i think he
maybe a little, Underrated.

Speaker 2 (01:03:57):
And he was the one he pitched on the other
side of the monago, one SO i was. Right it
was the four, innings three, strikeouts gave up one earned.
Run he did look pretty pretty especially first, inning it
was pretty. Nasty so that's a really good. Way any
other guys you want to throw out that are not
being talked about.

Speaker 1 (01:04:12):
Enough Zach erhard from The Red.

Speaker 3 (01:04:14):
Sox we've done a great job with these sort of
like hit tool plate skills, guys LIKE i said at
the top of the, show AND i talked to a
lot of their player development people because it's near, me
and also like they have a lot of new prospects
in the top, systems so there's a lot of stories
to be.

Speaker 1 (01:04:32):
WRITTEN i think they're doing some interesting stuff and.

Speaker 3 (01:04:36):
They have a lot of synergy between their hitting development
and pitching development and then their i'll say amateur acquisition,
department whether that might be you, know the international side of,
things but especially the draft and the domestic players that
They're brittany in And airhard is one that had sort
of these underlying plate. Skills he's up in DOUBLE, a

(01:04:58):
EV's are, up that speeds, Up he's starting to hit
for more, power and it's really outlier bat to. Ball
but IF i remember, correctly it might be like a
six swinging strike right at this. Point so he is
not missing in DOUBLE a as like a guy in
his first full. YEAR i think he's another really interesting

(01:05:18):
one that maybe gets lost a little bit in the
shuffle because there's been so many good hitting prospects even
in the outfield ahead of him in That Red sox
system for the last couple of. Years but he was
a name that was mentioned to us in the off
season By Brian, abraham their director of player. Development and
he's a guy that's so, far so. GOOD i, mean
it's Not Christian campbell kind of, stuff BUT i think

(01:05:41):
maybe like top one fifty to two hundred kind of
a prospect right. Now and like he's In DOUBLE, a
so he's not that far away from the majors Even
and you, know kind of took a rocket ship up,
there all.

Speaker 2 (01:05:53):
RIGHT i REALIZED i might have set you up or
question this kind of weirdly because my next question or
my last one is a prospect or two that you
think people need to start paying attention. To it's kind
of in the same vein of WHAT i just asked.
You i'm gonna still leave it, there but also present
a like maybe a couple of players that you think
might be just under ranked from an industry, perspective maybe

(01:06:13):
even in your own. Site it could be from. Others
so it's either a relatively like under ranked or, again
this is kind of poor question on my. Part WHEN
i just, asked who's not talking About i'm saying now
a guy to pay attention. To it's kind of the same.
Question so do either one of those click a player
or two for. You, hmm.

Speaker 1 (01:06:34):
This One's this one's kind of. Tough.

Speaker 3 (01:06:36):
UH i don't, know like maybe maybe somebody, Uh BECAUSE
i did see the, QUESTION i was like if he
asked me the same.

Speaker 2 (01:06:45):
QUESTION i didn't see it BEFORE i asked, it and
then as like you were, ANSWERING i, Looked i'm, like
this Is i'm actually asking kind of the same QUESTION
i THOUGHT i had asked more in like a rank.

Speaker 3 (01:06:55):
PERSPECTIVE i feel Like i'm just naming like Red sox
Like Red sox right. Now but they've just done a
good job of acquiring players and all their guys are.
Performing we also.

Speaker 2 (01:07:07):
Talked about the. Organization they have so much flexibility and
if they want to develop or they want to, trade
this is what you want out of a.

Speaker 3 (01:07:13):
Team, yeah but Yoaker frajard saw him last year in
the complex with The White, sox or actually he would
have been on the backfields in the offseason because A dsl.
Guy he was the guy that got For Cam boozer
back In. December who's been pretty good as a as
a middle relief guy for The White. Sox but this

(01:07:33):
guy's stuff is really. Good he's been excellent in THE
fcl so far across twenty point two, innings he's allowed
one earn run.

Speaker 1 (01:07:43):
Total you know it.

Speaker 3 (01:07:46):
Struck out twenty four to just seven, walks not allowing
a lot of hard, contact not allowing the ball in
the air all that, often and the stuff is kind
of there and clicking all the.

Speaker 2 (01:07:59):
Boxes say the name again because it kind of.

Speaker 3 (01:08:02):
Show it is why H O I K E r
is the first name For gardo f j J A.

Speaker 2 (01:08:13):
R D Oh, yes all, right, good very good name
by the way that was like an a, plus like
sliding into that when it was simply the same. Questions
very impressive and you know, WHAT i think it's a
testament to your, Tools, jeff because you were able to
pull out another name that wasn't even really ready for
so very very. Good by the, way are you like

(01:08:34):
super stoked About rentaro going to The? Cape you always
joke with me about being like one of the someday
THE afl will recognize me in some, capacity but being
one of the biggest stewards of THE, afl you're like
the you're the number One cape. Guy so are you
excited about Seeing? Rentaro who's Gonna.

Speaker 1 (01:08:51):
Yeah, yeah, yeah SURE i should.

Speaker 2 (01:08:54):
Be.

Speaker 3 (01:08:54):
UH i should be out there probably next, week AND
i think he should be.

Speaker 1 (01:08:58):
TOO i don't know if he's played in the game
for it, yet.

Speaker 3 (01:09:00):
But kind of my home ballpark WHERE i like to
go out to my, Coworker Peter. Flaherty his family's very
involved with The, kettaliers so it's kind of like my
home away from. HOME i love going out. There my
son does their baseball camp every. Year so should be
exciting to See sak out, there be my first look at.

Speaker 1 (01:09:17):
Him in.

Speaker 2 (01:09:18):
Person so is he where does he ring on like the, Top,
LIKE i don't, know last five years of prospects you've
got to see in The, cape is he in the top?
Five top? Three not even not even?

Speaker 1 (01:09:29):
Close probably probably, not probably.

Speaker 3 (01:09:31):
NOT i don't even think he's probably like the most
the best media, story you, know BECAUSE i think that's
Probably Cam collier as like a seventeen year old.

Speaker 1 (01:09:39):
In The cape player in The. Cape.

Speaker 3 (01:09:41):
NO i, mean Because i've seen so many number one
picks over the last couple of, years first, rounders you, Know,
YEAH i MEAN i SAW i Saw bizana on The.
CAPE i Saw Christian, MOORE i saw Weather halt on The.
CAPE i didn't See jack he came. DOWN i Saw
condon on The. Cape not that that's one of the

(01:10:02):
brag about right, now But i'm just thinking in terms
of like these draft, prospects so many of those guys
come through The cape colleague that he'd really have to
be really impressive to sort, of you, know unseat those.

Speaker 1 (01:10:15):
Guys Zach.

Speaker 3 (01:10:16):
Nato Zach nato is like an all Time cape. Guy
Brock wilkin was awesome on The, cape especially as a.
Freshman Cam, smith Another cape, guy that's in the big
leagues right.

Speaker 2 (01:10:27):
NOW i guess maybe from a, hype like a pre hype, perspective,
though that's pretty exciting to see, him but because you
got the foresight, of, like you, know what has happened
in who they've.

Speaker 3 (01:10:36):
Become but, yeah maybe it's not quite bizarre or A
collier in that. SENSE i think those guys each had
some hype just Because bizan is so unusual in the
same sense That sasaki is that he's not eligible to
play for the collegiate national, team so he.

Speaker 1 (01:10:50):
Can't even be, invited so we know we're going to
get him for a full.

Speaker 3 (01:10:53):
Summer it's the same With sasaki and Then kyllier of
course being so young and A juco, guy and it
was just such an interesting storyline at the time and
people were just really into.

Speaker 1 (01:11:02):
It so we'll.

Speaker 3 (01:11:03):
SEE i, MEAN i may come here in two months and, say, hey,
yeah the interest In sasaki was through the roof AND
i was, Wrong so we'll see what.

Speaker 2 (01:11:12):
Happened play you kind of talked about at the top,
Though but anything else you want to, plug any any
killer articles you got going. ON i, know it's just
a weird time because it's like you have been updating
the top. Thirties you're preparing for The futures game and all,
That but is there anything else THAT ba related you
want to?

Speaker 1 (01:11:25):
PLUG i, think you, know go check out the draft.

Speaker 3 (01:11:27):
Rankings we're going to keep on pumping that stuff, out
and then a lot of really interesting college content as
they're silly seasons about to. Start we got the, finals
so the college you, know the final games of The
College World series will, happen will crown a, champion and
then it's going to be an all out blitz into
the transfer portal and college coach hires and everything. Else

(01:11:48):
it's it's wild when anil is, Introduced so i'd stay.

Speaker 1 (01:11:53):
Focused on that and then tour of.

Speaker 3 (01:11:54):
Course you, know we have multiple updates before the trade,
deadline you, know in terms of of the top, thirties
so those will be coming, along fantasy.

Speaker 1 (01:12:03):
Stuff just trying to touch on all things. Baseball you,
know my, Dude.

Speaker 2 (01:12:07):
Jeff bonds B a make sure you follow him On,
twitter check him over At Baseball. American all the great
work they got going, on my, Friend thank you is
always for taking the time with. Me you, know godspeed
for the next month for you and looking forward to
seeing out that prospect, pad my.

Speaker 1 (01:12:21):
Friend thanks a, lot. MAN i always happy to jump on.

Speaker 2 (01:12:25):
And there you.

Speaker 1 (01:12:25):
Go.

Speaker 2 (01:12:26):
Friends thank you To Jeff ponce for taking the. TIME
i always, say you, KNOW i am lucky in those
relationships THAT i have with these, guys because anybody can
tell me, no of, course but like it's like an
extra bonus THAT i get THAT i can reach out To,
james AND i can reach out To, jeff AND i
can reach out To cross And clegg And i've probably
got a ninety percent ratio of getting guesses on those.

(01:12:47):
Guys they're just wonderful. PEOPLE i love talking prospects with
all of. Them and you, Know jeff was Just. Jeff
it was like he's on foul. Territory he's making, headlines
he's doing this and, that AND i text him and he's, Like,
yeah what, day, boom this time, perfect let's do. It jeff's.
Here he's always there for. Me SO i love the.
Guy hopefully you guys enjoyed the conversation and that gave
you some, names whether it's like valuations in the top

(01:13:09):
one hundred range or some deeper names to kind of sit.
On all, right coming, up we're probably gonna have a
little bit of an earlier episode next. Week it might
be a rank based episode then Because i'm out for
a couple of days and then we're going to come
back and we are going to do heavy draft. Focus
so it'll be dependent IF i can get my draft
person next week of the week, after but it's probably
relevant since we'll have a big rank update maybe rank.

(01:13:30):
Update then we're going to go heavy into draft about
two weeks, before talk to you about who these players,
are the VALUATIONS i will even be giving, you AND
i do this on my rank, sheet the relative range
THAT i Think i'm going to be placing, them so
you can kind of know right off the, bat you,
know this draft has a one top twenty five player
and four top fifties or whatever it. Is It's i'm

(01:13:52):
giving arbitrary, numbers but that's what that ends up looking.
Like and you, Know i've got my breakdowns and stuff like.
That so that will be over the next couple. Weeks
we'll be doing lots of draft. Futures. Game should be
a very good. Time thank you guys as always for
supporting the. Podcast go To In This league dot com
sign up on The patreon today to get access to
the ranks AND i just very. Much so you, know

(01:14:14):
the more you, support the MORE i can, do the
MORE i can. Justify you. Know that's that's a tough.
THING i do some of those twitch streams and it's
like not enough people. There it's hard to justify going
bonkers with. It but you, know when you guys are,
THERE i can be. There so that's the awesome. Thing
so thank you for going to in This league dot.
Com make sure you also check out a the YouTube
YouTube dot com slash in This league trying to put

(01:14:35):
someone and put some of These jeff videos up there
in little bite side. Stuff and make sure that you are.
Subscribed wherever you listen to, podcasts make sure you're subscribe
To prospect one that is going to do. It find
me on the twitters at is it The. WELSH i
will talk to you next time right here On prospect.
One my, friends

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Episode 401 - Geoff Pontes of Baseball America

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Episode 401 - Geoff Pontes of Baseball America