Episode 402 - 2025 MLB Draft Talk with Joe Doyle - Prospect One

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
In this league podcast. That word present Prospect one. So
Fantasy Prospect Podcast Prospect one with your host Chris Wels.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
This is the Fantasy Baseball prospect podcast. It's Prospect one. Hi, friends,
I'm your host, Chris Welsh. You can find me on
the socials at isit the Welsh and on Patreon at
in this League dot Com Top five hundred Prospects, Top
four hundred Dynasty. We've got Draft Rank prospect. We're up
in the list in this latest update as I'm actually

(00:36):
finishing the final touches on it from a hotel room
to get it up over on the Patreon. Plus, we
have group me rooms and a ton more. You can
support me at in this League dot com. But you
can also get all that cool stuff if you're into
it in this league dot com. Sign up today in
this League dot Com. On the episode today, we are
MLB drafting at my Friends. I've got Joe Doyle from

(00:59):
the Future Stars series and the Overslought podcast. I have
had him on for many many years, and we are
talking MLB Draft prospects. He was at the MLB Draft Combine.
We're gonna be talking about some players that really helped
and improve their stock there. We're gonna be talking about
what the first round, what these draft prospects compare to overall.

(01:19):
We're talking high school shortstops, pitching, we got a bunch
that we're gonna be hitting, and a little bit into
just what the landscape of the MLB draft is looking like.
You know, how does it compare to previous years? Is
there kind of some volatility into it? I have a
feeling there is, as you're gonna hear me kind of
allude to, it's kind of crazy time. We're a little
less than a month away, and it doesn't really feel

(01:42):
like a we're like overtly excited about a lot of
these guys. It doesn't There's not a Kertz, there's not
a CAGs. It's it's heavier shortstop, high school shortstops, and
it's heavy college pitching. Doesn't mean it's not gonna be
good at the end of the day. But we're gonna
break all that down. You guys want to know kind
of the fantasy potential, some of the valuations even for

(02:05):
fantasy versus the real world.

Speaker 1 (02:07):
That's what we're going to talk about.

Speaker 2 (02:08):
So Joe Doyle's on the podcast, which I'm excited to
have and you know, excited to we'll do this episode
and then we'll probably do one like leading right up
into the draft to see what things are looking like.
But there is some craziness potentially going to be out there.
But what do these guys, What does Ethan Holliday look like?
What is Kate Anderson who dropped one hundred and thirty pitches?
You know what is this all building? Too fully dedicated

(02:32):
to that today? Though there are some prospect things out
in the world speaking of the draft class, you don't
want to give a shout out. Don't also want to
be dismissive of you know, college pitching, because there is
some really good college pitching, especially after you see Chase
Burns do what he just did, stuff numbers through the floor, fastball,
slider combinations, fantastic. You know, maybe we'll see some even

(02:55):
more change up in future starts. But he struck out
five straight Yankees, ended up ending the second inning with
six strikeouts through those two innings, into the full game,
five innings, three earned runs, gave up a homer but
eight strikeouts in his pro debut and looked phenomenal. And
this dude was like not this time last year, right,

(03:17):
now he wasn't doing anything. There was no college baseball,
he hadn't been drafted, and he's out lighting up the Yankees. Incredible,
and you know it's relative. We're not doing a rank
based episode. We'll probably do that next week coming off
the update. But I had made this move. The only
person that can ever attest to this, by the way,

(03:38):
I guess, is Jesse Severe, because Jesse Severe sees the
I have like my list, that's the working sheet, and
then I transfer it to a public sheet, and the
working list. He's the only one besides Bogman that can
see it. And I had moved Chase Burns to the
number one pitching prospect in baseball, and I thought the
line has been very short and small between Andrew Painter, him,

(04:00):
Bubba Chandler and those kind of those guys. I've moved
Mizerowski up into that list as well. The toughest decision
was actually not Bubba Chandler being moved. It was Andrew
Painter or Chase Burns. And I was kind of battling
between that because even though she Andrew Painter's you know,
like statistically at Triple A hasn't been lights out or

(04:23):
anything like that. I think he has such an elite
like pro pitch combo that I think the stuff is there.
I think he's got the arsenal. Maybe that's a better
way to say it. He's got a pro arsenal of
pitches that I think he's going to be wildly successful.
But on display definitely was like, not only is there

(04:45):
a good arsenal with Chase Burns, but the stuff can
be absolutely elite, and you know he he might be
striking out ten in the very near future. So I
decided to make that move. And what's relative about this
next prospect update. I have a new number one pitching
prospect and I've got a new potential number one hitter

(05:06):
because the two hitters above Connor Griffin are only college bats,
I'm sorry, are only major league Well, they are college bats.
They were only guys that are in the majors right
now who are going to graduate. So once this graduation
is done, Connor Griffin will become my number one overall prospect.
And I took a lot of consideration with it because

(05:26):
I'm you know, I'm finicky with especially like I haven't
wanted to move off of Max Clark all year. I'm
a big Max Clark Stan. I don't want to go
too crazy about moving off of Travis Bazana. There are
some players that are moving way up the board. Kevin
McGonagall is moving way up the board. Jesus made He's
definitely slowed down this last month. He's obviously moved up

(05:48):
the board. But you know, with what Connor Griffin has done,
you know, like Hazes's body is missing some of the
elite power right now, he's going through some little struggles.
We're not seeing that with Griffin whatsoever. He's about a
year old at Griffin is Amadi. But we're seeing elite
stolen bases, we're seeing elite power, We're seeing elite batting
average across multiple levels that he's gonna probably push to

(06:09):
double A this year and then he's gonna be a
twenty year old next year that might be vying for
a spot if the.

Speaker 1 (06:14):
Pirates, you know, are competing.

Speaker 2 (06:16):
Connor Griffin has the stuff and has the look of
a number one overall prospect. So that's why I've I
decided to make that move. But the top, I think
the top four looks real, Top four to five looks
really good, looks really really good. But Anthony and Kaggs
will come off the list. Connor Griffin so new number
one potential number one overall hitter and new number one
overall pitcher on my prospect list. Plus a gajillion.

Speaker 1 (06:38):
Updates out there.

Speaker 2 (06:39):
But I was just so thoroughly impressed with Chase Burns.

Speaker 1 (06:41):
It's just ridiculous.

Speaker 2 (06:43):
And one other note, significant ish note. Bryce Eldridge going
to be out about a month, and he looked like
he was kind of knocking on the door to potentially
be up in the major soon. But he is going
to miss a month. This is the second time he
started the year missing some time. He's gonna miss it here,
probably how to rehab slowing the role here. I still
think he's going to get to.

Speaker 1 (07:04):
The majors this year.

Speaker 2 (07:05):
But that was kind of at the tippy top of
like the big pieces of news of prospects. You know,
there's definitely some significant movement from my last update as
I'm looking at this, you know, in the top twenty five.
As we're making moves. But you know, we've had a
lot of good players get up to the majors. We've
got a majority of players that just aren't going to

(07:26):
get to the majors this year.

Speaker 1 (07:27):
Locked in.

Speaker 2 (07:28):
So it's like, you know, I don't know how many
more like new players we're going to see into this season,
So it's like we're basing a lot off of just
like the really great production and what is this top
twelve going to look like? But there were some significant
movers in the top one hundred overall. You know, Cam
Collier looks incredible just throwing I'll just thought a couple

(07:48):
of names. You know, he has looked incredible in his return.
He seems to be locked in. What do you do
with Roneol Rodriguez one of the hottest young prospects, but
as soon as he got to a ball he has struggled.
What do you end up doing with that? Carson Beinge
has moved into the top one hundred, so you want
to check it out. You can see what the impact
of injuries, what the impact of pro debuts, and some

(08:09):
of the sample sizes have led up to in this
top one hundred. And a very fun thing we're going
to get to do in the next couple weeks as well,
is we got the Futures Game. So which of these
guys who all is going to be making to the
Futures Game put on display maybe even into trades. A
pretty exciting time as well as the MLB Draft, and
percentages are lowering, but I will say there's still a

(08:30):
slight chance that I may be out in Atlanta. I
mean I would say it was like a fifty to
fifty chance a month ago.

Speaker 1 (08:37):
I think the.

Speaker 2 (08:38):
Percentages have dropped because I just still haven't heard back,
you know, the MLB credential site just hasn't said anything.

Speaker 1 (08:44):
But if I get a confirmation.

Speaker 2 (08:45):
In the next week, there's a good chance that I
could be out there, and I would be out there
for the draft and the combine, which would be incredible.
But like I said, not holding out too many hopes.
But if so, we then could have some prospect updates
and you know, you never know what we're all going
to see. But that is the setup, my friends, Let's
get into the episode. Don't want to waste any more time.

(09:05):
Joe Doyle from the Future Star series joining me here.

Speaker 1 (09:10):
MLB Draft prospects.

Speaker 2 (09:11):
I want to say, we're gonna cover like fifteen to
twenty different guys. He's gonna throw out some different names.
We're gonna play with evaluations really kind of get you
set for what first year player, what the first year
player names are gonna look like who they're going to be.
There's a few sleepery guys in there as well, and
then you know we're gonna go into ranks the next episode,

(09:31):
probably future game, and then we'll have one more episode
leading up to the draft to like really give you
the probably like a little future scope of potential first
year players, and then after the draft we will definitely
do like an immediate here's what the first year player
draft is looking like. So without further ado, let's get
into this episode. Joe Doyle talking twenty twenty five MLB.

Speaker 3 (09:54):
Draft say I like you. I like you so much,
I want to make you my partner. All he has
to do is find the gold and all shared it
with you. Fifty to fifty prospect.

Speaker 2 (10:08):
What we're talking MLB draft for the twenty five season,
and there's only one person I.

Speaker 1 (10:14):
Can think of that I want to talk to.

Speaker 2 (10:15):
He is Joe Doyle, future Star series in the Overslap podcast.
My buddy was out here, out everywhere. He's one of
the best minds in the prospect draft game. Make sure
you're following him.

Speaker 1 (10:27):
Joe Doyle, what's up, dude?

Speaker 3 (10:28):
Well, she good to see man.

Speaker 2 (10:30):
Good to see you, which I wanted to connect again
this year. I had the credential set for the MLB
Draft Combine, and just with all the chaos I have
going at Fantasy Pros, I couldn't get out there really
to see you, Like it'd have been great to go
and see like, you know, Quintin Young and Brandon Compton
and Manny Ramirez running around, but I.

Speaker 1 (10:49):
Really was there to go see you. But luckily we do.

Speaker 2 (10:52):
Have some eyes on the combine, which we're going to
talk about, plus all the other draft prospects that's going on.
The draft is a little less than a month of way.
How is the chaos for you before we jump into
all the stuff, like is it you know? Are you
getting rumors left and right? Is there chaos and the
draft scene? It's things have been heating out, but it's
got to be like really, and I don't mean heating

(11:13):
up like you out here in Arizona, Like things got
to really be ramping up right now.

Speaker 3 (11:17):
Yeah. No, this is definitely the time. I think right
after the combine and right after draft meetings that take
place toward the end of June, teams start to get
an actual idea for the players that they like and
the players that they think are going to be there
in their range, and you know, we're we're gonna have
draft meetings for most teams one more time here around
the fourth of July, and Team USA trials get going

(11:38):
next week, and that's when a lot of you know,
national scouts get together and start whispering a little bit,
start talking to each other, and so, yeah, I think
this time of year, these last you know, this last
two and a half weeks is when things really start
to heat up.

Speaker 2 (11:51):
So before we jump in all this stuff too and
without having to like break down a lot of players,
do you have a decent sense of what this draft
is going to look like like At the top end,
I think there's a lot of mocks are throwing Ethan
Holiday as the number one. I think there's been some adjustments.
I think I've seen Eli Willitts for an underslot, We've

(12:12):
seen Kate Anderson after that. Like, do you have a
decent sense comparative to previous years of what let's just
use the top ten as an example. Do you have
a decent sense of what the top ten looks like
right now? Or do you think it is still super
volatile and even like the number one pick is a
big question.

Speaker 3 (12:31):
I think it's still super volatile. And the reason I
say that is because if you go back to the
twenty twenty three draft, there was a defined top five
and also importantly, it was five guys that people thought
were worthy of being top five picks in any given
draft a very good year. You go back to twenty
twenty four, it was a stacked college class, college hitters.

(12:54):
Teams love college hitters. They're decorated, they're accomplished, they're playing
in the.

Speaker 2 (12:58):
Majors right now, by the way, cag Leone, Chase Burns,
those guys are all playing in the majors.

Speaker 3 (13:04):
Matt Shaw was twenty twenty three. He moved extremely quick,
So I know that's a sidebar, but yeah, like the
the Polish last year really stood out, and I think
there was a clear cliff in twenty twenty four that
doesn't exist this season. And I think what makes it
even more confusing in twenty twenty five is a lot

(13:25):
of teams that I've talked to in the top five, six,
seven eight picks don't necessarily think guys at the very
tip top of this class should be like a traditional
top five pick in an average class. So I think,
you know, teams are trying to find the most responsible
ways to spend their money. I'm not saying that nobody
in this class is a is a you know, top

(13:46):
twenty five prospect in the sport. Seth Hernandez for me,
is a top twenty five prospect right out of the
gate in the sport, and I think you could make
a pretty convincing argument for Ethan Holiday as well. But
some of these other guys, there's some question marks. There's
some yellow flags, some red flags, and I don't know
if teams are like in a huge hurry to spend
eight eight and a half nine million dollars on players

(14:08):
that they have question marks on. So I think teams
are in front offices and scouting departments are still trying
to figure out the best way to allocate their funds.
And for some teams, I think that might mean there
might be a couple of big surprises in the top
ten picks.

Speaker 2 (14:22):
So do you think like using your mock draft or
you can go to public one like Baseball America does
it pipeline and stuff. Do you think like the mock
drafts that we're seeing or because yours might be a
little bit different because I know you have done a
really good job over years of people have paid attention
to your work, where I have seen countless times where
you have differed from some of the public mock drafts
with your stuff, and then people have turned to doing

(14:43):
what you're doing, so like you have taken some of
that information and put it into mock drafts.

Speaker 1 (14:47):
Do you think there's a.

Speaker 2 (14:48):
Decent chance what we are seeing, like let's say you
drop one today and then like Pipeline drops one, what
that top five or ten looks like could be decently
different than what actually happens a month from now, because
like I agree with you with what you're saying in
that there are these clumps of like, yeah, maybe we
don't know who number one is, but it's these five.
This feels like the top five today might not be

(15:11):
the even you know, two of the three or three
of the five might only be the guys that go
in the top five or ten in this next one.
So again, that's that volatility if you understand what I'm saying, like,
do you think what we're publicly seeing has a chance
to still look dramatically different even if it's like not
just one in four change it. But maybe a couple
top ten guys not going in the top ten strictly
because of money.

Speaker 3 (15:31):
Yeah, I think that's the key right now. I based
on the intel that I've got, there are eleven players
that could go inside of the top five with just
different connections to different teams. Now, I think most people
in the industry publicly and privately would agree on the
players that belong at the top, like Seth Fernandez, Kate Anderson,

(15:52):
Ethan Holiday. I think Eli Willitts is in like eighty
percent of teams top fives. And then it's some combination
of you know, Le Doyle, Jamie Arnold, I've oar like.
I think there's three or four players at the top
of this class that are in just about everybody's top five.
But the issue that I was what I was saying
earlier is there are teams that don't believe those players
should go in the top five in a normal draft.

(16:13):
And if you don't believe that player is a top
five player in a normal draft, and you're not in
any hurry to give that player nine million dollars eight
and a half million dollars, well maybe you want to
do something exceptionally interesting like draft and Ike Irish for
six point eight million dollars at pick five, draft a
you know, Kyson Witherspoon at pick four for you know,

(16:33):
seven million bucks. So I do think there's going to
be some kind of galaxy brained uniqueness with how teams
actually execute the top of this draft. But no, I
feel also, Chris, like we say that every year and
it ends up being a little bit more chock, a
little bit more chock than we think. So we'll see
what happens. I do think this is the perfect year
for there to be a couple of surprises in the

(16:53):
top ten. I've heard Daniel Pierce mentioned in the top ten.
I've continued to hear Ike Irish mentioned in the top ten.
We'll seef it actually happens.

Speaker 2 (17:00):
All right, So let's talk about the MLB Draft combine,
which was out here in Phoenix. Seemed a little less
star study as far as names, and maybe that's a
thing like year in and year out, untild MLB does
something about it. First year, it was like like everybody
was there in that first one, even if they were
just like doing interviews and stuff. But it was like
Eldridge and nobel Meyer and Jacob Wilson was walking around.

(17:22):
I think Bazana was doing interviews year two. A little
bit less this year, and you know, you could speak
better to it you were there, but what you saw
publicly this seemed like a lot less. I know, like
Seth and or Seth was there, but then he like
just did interviews and stuff like that. It just seemed
like there was less stuff. What I'm curious about, though,
is anything you want to speak on your experience as

(17:44):
long as that is or you know something they did
that you loved and who were the standouts, And I
think Brandon Compton looked like one of the biggest standouts
there with some insane evs. I saw you had post
about Jaden Stroman, Marcus Stroman's brother I believe is a
two way player, but really shine pitching and Dax Kilby
was another one.

Speaker 1 (18:05):
I'm throwing out.

Speaker 2 (18:06):
Three guys that I thought stood out from some of
the draft combines. So talk to us about if there's
anything unique in the experience this go around. And then
some guys, whether it's those guys or any others, that
you really thought maybe help their draft stock.

Speaker 1 (18:19):
And we should be paying attention to.

Speaker 3 (18:21):
Yeah, yeah, second time down there, and I think the
event continues to get better and better. It's more organized
every year, batting practice moves faster. They do take breaks
and intermissions for MLB Network, which is fine. It does
kind of kill time for a lot of others there,
but it's a good event. And to your point, yeah,
this was a tough year for Major League Baseball getting

(18:41):
top tier talent. I mean, they're always going to be
swimming upstream with Omaha, right. Kate Anderson was busy, I've
Arquette was busy. I know Liam Doyle and Jamie Arnold
came out there. Ike Irish elected not to come. So
whenever you have top flight prospects at top flight programs
playing in Omaha, you're just not going to get those guys.

(19:03):
But the fact that Ethan Holiday elected not to go,
and the fact that Eli Willitts elected not to go,
that hurts, you know that that hurts the star studdedness
of the class. And it's already an uphill battle when
most of the guys at the top elect not to
do the workout portions. They're just there for the interviews.

(19:23):
So if Major League Baseball can figure out a way
to encourage these these players to do the workout portions
as well and just show up. In general. I think
it's going to do well for the health of the
event moving forward. Brandon Compton was unbelievable. I've never seen
a batting practice like that in my life, in my
entire life. I mean, he hit five balls over one

(19:44):
hundred and fourteen and a half miles an hour. He
hit three balls over one hundred and sixteen miles an hour.
I went back. I had to go back and look
at the numbers from twenty twenty five in Tenpe. He
didn't hit a ball one hundred and fifteen with a
metal bat against guys throwing ninety. You give him a
would bat against be throwing fifty five and he hits
three of them. He had up a one hundred and
seventeen miles an hour once sixteen point nine. So ridiculous,

(20:06):
it was ridiculous. It was the most ridiculous display of
power I've ever seen. So yeah, Brandon Compton was unbelievable.
I thought Quentin Young did some really good things. Dax
Kilby was very very good. I thought Jake Cook, the
center fielder at Southern Miss, was really interesting. He broke
the combine record with a three point five to zho

(20:26):
thirty yard dash showing off eighty grade speed. It's huge
arm strength. My understanding is his force plate testing was
really good, so I could see someone just kind of
taking a shot on him in the second round. The
other one that nobody's really talking about is land In
Fordric who's a outfield prospect at in Cincinnati. Big exit,
v Low's big thirty yard dash, big force plate testing.

(20:50):
Like the one thing that I liked to take away
from the combine every year is the athletic testing because
it's everybody in the same stadium with control, old variables,
and generally numbers that you don't see like in a
on a baseball card. So yeah, some of the guys
that you mentioned were awesome. I thought Tim Piasentine, the

(21:11):
third baseman out of Canada, was really really good. I
think he could sneak up into the top one hundred.
So yeah, definitely some guys improving their draft stock down
in Phoenix.

Speaker 1 (21:20):
Two guys rose real quick.

Speaker 2 (21:21):
What do you think Compton did for himself? When we're
good kids again we were translate this into fantasy and
stuff like that. Do you think Compton pushed himself up
into like a high route. I mean from an offensive
profile standpoint, you laid out the power. The power looks fantastic.
He's a more polished bat. Specifically, the next guy want
to talk about is Quinn Young because I'm obsessed with him,
but you know there is more of a polish with Compton.

(21:44):
Do you think that Compton is going to be a
name that we're going to need to pay attention to
even harder now after that display? Like did he like
what did that performance? You think due to his stock,
he went from bop to bob.

Speaker 3 (21:58):
Yeah. So he came into this season and scouts were
raving about what he did on the Cape and it
was like, Oh, this guy's going to go in the
back of the first this guy's going to go in
the top forty five picks. And then he had like
a Soso year. I think he hit two seventy with
fourteen homers and the defense was okay. I thought what
he did and so I'd say that forced him down
into the fifty five to seventy five range. I thought

(22:19):
what he did at the combine kind of pushed him
right back to where he was. I think there's a
chance that he goes in the twenty seven to forty range,
But I don't think he gets out of the top fifty.
I mean, look at what teams like the Yankees have
valued in the draft over the last handful of years,
Like he could hit forty five homers in Yankee Stadium.
So I do think he's going to be a priority.

(22:40):
If it's not at the back of the first it's
someone's very early second pick, and yeah, he should go
pretty good.

Speaker 2 (22:48):
I wonder I wonder if he'd be a decent pairing,
by the way, with like I'm just throwing this out here,
and I'm also a little homer, but like I think
of the Diamondbacks having like a teens pick that maybe
you pay up a little bit on as let's a
young shortstop, and then maybe theoretically you could pay down
a little bit by taking a college bat or you
don't have to go overslot. I mean, I know sometimes

(23:08):
they you can go either way, where you can go
like college early and then you pay up on the
high school guy in the other end. But you know
that might be a team with two picks might look
at a guy like Compton just as something to throw
out there. I think you're about to go into Quentin Young.
Quentin Young before Compton, to me and watching it was
insanely impressive.

Speaker 1 (23:28):
Huge evs he had put up.

Speaker 2 (23:30):
Again, I think before Compton went he had put up
like three of the top like five hardest hit balls
in combine history. He's a freak of an athlete of
the Delman Young crew.

Speaker 1 (23:42):
I think, nephew, I.

Speaker 2 (23:43):
Want to say it was, but either's some rawness to it,
and I think we will just like weirdly go into
that world of like, oh, this guy kind of screams
like an Ellie. He's got the James Wood Ellie type
of look and feel, but he looks a little unpolished.
To me, he feels like one of those players kind
of like actually James would like when James Wood came

(24:03):
in and drafted. There's there's a feel like that, and
you know where that can go. I'm kind of obsessed
a little bit with Quentin Young.

Speaker 1 (24:10):
Do you think that's justified? Do you think he's a
guy that could, you know, maybe.

Speaker 2 (24:14):
Be someone that slips into like a first round or
does What do you think about Quentin Young?

Speaker 3 (24:19):
Yeah? I think he could certainly, Like how likely is
it that guy gets by the Dodgers. Yeah, yeah, like
they pick forty and forty one. You know, the James
Wood thing is interesting. I was talking to a scout
in in Phoenix during the combine and he said, you
know what, I don't know if anybody is totally totally
bought in, like in love with the player, like this

(24:39):
is definitely going to work. But someone's gonna draft Quentin
Young early enough to where you throw him in just
a ball, like low a ball. He absolutely tears the
cover off the ball and suddenly you have like one
of the premium trade pieces in Major League Baseball. Like
you might not believe in your home art that Quentin

(25:01):
Young is going to be this like five War thirty homer,
fifteen stolen base third baseman. You might not trust it.
But if you trust that that kid can go into
a ball and just you know, put together a mammoth
Mammoth twenty twenty six and you can flip them at
the deadline, that's Worth's something incredible too. And it's funny

(25:21):
you brought up to James Wood thing, because in essence,
in some ways, that's exactly what happened with James Wood.
He was moved pretty quick. It was big. It was tools. Now.
Unfortunately for the padres, James Wood is really really freaking good.

Speaker 2 (25:35):
So one of the funny things too, that's gonna age well,
not aging very well. One of the reasons I threw
that out was not even just a physical necessarily a
physical body calmp, but like James Wood wasn't super polished.
When he first came up. I was at the debut
of him and Jackson Merrill. Great friends, best friends. They
walk out together. Merrill kind of takes the scene. James
Wood was. He kind of was just like you weren't

(25:56):
sure about the physicality, was a little chubby and stuff
like that, and he played really bad at the complex level.
I saw him multiple times where he was super aggressive
and swinging through and then he would play himself up.

Speaker 1 (26:07):
But that's kind of what I'm talking with.

Speaker 2 (26:08):
James Wood didn't show off this like, oh he's not
going to strike out, and he's got great contact ability
and he's got all fields power. You were just like,
this is like a freak crazy, big athlete who looks raw.
That's how Quin Young feels to me. And it's like
in the right development, you know, put him in complex
ball that you know, if you can get him to
lower some of that chase stuff like if he can

(26:29):
tap in, he's got that James Would type of output feel,
but he just might be too raw that he can't
like get to that level.

Speaker 3 (26:36):
Of course. I mean we'll see, like the irony in
all this and you hit the nail on the head
is like James would. People were talking about that guy
being a top ten pick in the twenty twenty I
think it was the twenty one draft. Maybe it was
twenty two. I'm trying to think back. Yeah, people were
talking about him going early, as early as like January
and February of that draft eligible year. Then he had

(26:56):
a thirty two thirty three percent strikeout rate in hist
at IMG and people kind of walked back on it
and they said, oh, I don't know if this guy's
going to hit, and you know, the power is obviously
huge and great left handed frame, blah blah blah blah blah.
Well this just goes to show like sometimes you can
teach that, and if you believe you can teach that
with Quintin Young, the sky is the freaking limit. I mean,

(27:18):
I've heard the comps to O'Neil Cruz. I've heard all
that and O'Neil Cruz had some of the same worts
that we're talking about with James Wood. If you can
get this guy polished to a point where he can
survive as a big league that the tools are going
to provide immense impact.

Speaker 2 (27:34):
Yeah, and I think Compton and Young are probably one
of the more intriguing guys. There are a lot of
interesting players there. Those two really stood out. We didn't
cover him just real quick. Jaden Stroman, like, did you
think he was one of the more impressive pictures that
was out there? You posted some and it was like
twenty IVB and he was hit ninety seven, Like you
know where if there's another picture it like maybe if
you have like the most impressive picture you saw, feel

(27:57):
free to But I'd also just be curious. Do you
think Stroman is a thing?

Speaker 3 (28:00):
I would say Jaden Stroman's probably the most intriguing pitcher.
There's a kid by the name of Parker Roads that
I think made himself a ton of money with some
of his metrics. But Jayden Stroman, you know, maybe the
most valuable piece of going to the combine is these
guys are using the MLB ball, So you see guys
putting up massive metrics in college, and then they come
out here and it's like thirteen IVB thirteen horizontal, and

(28:20):
you're like, all right, well that's a bummer. You give
a baseball to Jaden Stroman and he's ripping, you know,
twenty IVB with three horizontal. I mean, it's like Chase
Burns level fastball value at least from a shape's perspective.
Up to ninety seven. He was ninety three to ninety
seven for I believe it was twenty two or twenty
five pitches, but he was throwing eighty six eighty seven
mile an hour death balls with like negative three negative

(28:41):
four vert. He's you know, he learned how to throw
a breaking ball in February, Like Marcus Stroman showed him
how to throw a breaking ball in February, he didn't
know how to throw one. So the untapped potential with
Jayden Stroman, and by the way he is, he was
a two way prospect, not anymore like no shot.

Speaker 1 (28:59):
This guy can throw, which were a pitcher now.

Speaker 3 (29:02):
Absolutely yeah, So I think Jaden Stroman has as good
a chance as anybody to go in the top three
rounds and the top one hundred picks. I think the
jury is still out on whether or not it's a starter.
It's very very new, it's so green to pitching like this.
He's he's become a full time pitcher just over the
last twelve months, so it's it's probably going to be

(29:23):
a long ramp up to his debut in major league baseball,
but the stuff that he can do to a baseball
is pretty freaking cool.

Speaker 2 (29:31):
Well, the MLB draft combine, though it lacks some of
the really awesome, exciting talent at the top, there definitely
still were some standouts to watch, and I think Stroman, Compton,
and quent Young are guys we could potentially look back
on and be like, wow, you know, because all very
fantasy relevant once you know, team context comes in. Even
if you know quent Young were to be a third
round or something like that, or Stroman were to fall like,

(29:53):
these are guys to potentially.

Speaker 1 (29:54):
Pay attention to.

Speaker 2 (29:55):
Let's move to the actual MLB draft, which, like I said,
little less in a month away. There's a lot of
volatility in it, but it looks like there are pretty
two clear bats. So let's start with the bats here,
because this draft is very heavy in one area, which
we'll talk about, but the top two bats seem to
be relatively locked. Ethan Holiday Jackson Holliday's brother at near

(30:17):
the tippy top and I've arquette who you mentioned. You
have a college bat, you have a high school bat.
Talk to us about what you think of them as prospects.
Maybe a relative you were talking about, like was it
Seth You were like, he could be the top twenty
five prospect in baseball. Where do you think these guys
would kind of align in it? And you know what

(30:37):
their game translate for fantasy?

Speaker 3 (30:40):
Yeah, So the Ethan Holidays is remarkably interesting in that
he has traits that just like nobody else in this
draft does. He's six foot four, he's two hundred and
fifteen pounds. It's you know, double plus bat speed from
the left side. It's it's a profile that's going to
stay on the dirt. It's bloodliness. It's kind of hard
not to fall in love with him. Now, there have

(31:02):
been hit tool concerns with Ethan going back to his
sophomore year in high school, but he hit like six
thirty this year in Stillwater with seventeen homers. So it's
you know, the old scout adage is what you have
to do is leave no shadow of a doubt. I
don't think Holiday left any shadow of a doubt. He
did everything he could to staple himself as the number

(31:25):
one pick in this class. Whether or not that's gonna happen,
we'll see. But you know, I think the I think
I've said the outcome for this guy is it's kind
of all over the map. Like if he hits, could
it be Matt Carpenter, Yeah, I mean if he if
he hits, could it be could it be Eric Chavez? Yeah?
Like is Ryan McMahon like the floor here? I think

(31:45):
it could be anywhere in any of those, in any
of those outcomes. But depending on where he goes, I'm
really rooting for Ethan Holliday to end up in Colorado,
Between you and me, I mean, Matt did huge things
in Colorado, and Ethan could hit forty homers in Colorado,
and I think he's comfortable there because you know, at
certain points of his career he grew up in Colorado

(32:06):
and his dad knows people in the organization. So Ethan
Holiday exceptionally interesting if you're okay from a fantasy perspective
on the risk that you know he may be a
two thirty hitter with strikeouts, fine, but some of the
biggest upside in the class Arquette. Arquette, Oh, go ahead.

Speaker 2 (32:22):
Well, I'm just gonna say, do you think the path
for that is kind of similar to what you talked
about with money earlier that it's like he's gonna have
to be like, I'm gonna want big money. Don't take
you know, one of those like where it's a controlled
this thing where it's like, that's great, you three are above,
but I want to go to Colorado. They're offering me money.
I'm not gonna sign if you don't da da da.

(32:44):
And then he has to he has to pave his
path to Colorado to drop the four because I have
seen some mocks which I think are just fun putting
him there because it makes sense. But it seems like
unless scouts are taking your same rein because you didn't
exactly give like a huge selling like like Ryan McMahon
and Eric Chabba is like, that doesn't get people excited

(33:05):
unless there's scouts that are worried about that and don't
even want to pay him costs. I feel like that's
a he has to push himself to Colorado, which would
be great for Colorado because it's like they need some
positive that's a you know, his dad played there, Like
that's something you could build your entire organization around. But
I just I see like the only path him doing
and is manipulating the market.

Speaker 3 (33:26):
Yeah, I mean, and it's Boris, you know. So I
think there's a I think there's a unique angle with this.
If you look back at what Washington did last year
going to sepher King at pick ten or eleven wherever
they were. They took a huge discount there because they
fell in love with the high schooler Luke Dickerson who
they needed to pick. They wanted to pay, and they
gave that guy like top twenty five money at pick

(33:47):
I don't remember, like forty two, something, thirty eight, something
like that. So, just by virtue of how the Nationals
handled last year's draft, if they're not entirely convinced that
Ethan Holiday is a you know, close to full freight
player with the number one pick, it's just I would
be surprised if they didn't try and cut another deal

(34:08):
and take a Kate Anderson who they think is going
to move quickly and will help supplement that rotation or
or Eli Willetts, who you know, you might be able
to get for a million dollars less than what Ethan
Holliday would take. So I think there's that portion of it.
I you know, Brad Seelik is the scouting director in
Washington now, he was with Baltimore. He's fondly familiar of

(34:29):
the of the of the Holiday family with this time
with Jackson, So you know, maybe there's a piece of that.
But to your point, I think you kind of hit
the nail on the head. I think and less Washington
is like totally totally convinced that this is a top
flight franchise altering pillar. I think they go in a

(34:51):
different direction and at that point, you know, Ethan Holliday
won't get by Colorado just won't happen.

Speaker 2 (34:56):
Yeah, I think he's locked into that spot. I've heard
the thing where it's like, if Washington doesn't take him,
the next two spots might already be kind of locked in.
And maybe it's like a very college pitching you know,
it's very heavy on the college pitching front. Maybe not
the most shocking thing on the planet. If the draft
even started, like Kate Anderson, Liam Boyle and you know,

(35:16):
whether Witherspoon or Jamie Arnold or something like that, and
then he gets there. But let's go into our quette here,
because this is the top college bat and there's a
really weird balance and fantasy of like, you know, a
top high school player and how can they rise. There
were some questions last year with Connor Griffin and Bryce
or Rayner, which ironically, like Connor Griffin is going to

(35:37):
be like a default number one after graduations overall for me,
and I was a Bryce Rayner guy who was looking
incredible before he got hurt, but they were pushed back
because of proximity. And then you start to look at
like the bats at college and how aggressive they push.
So there's this weird dynamic that's happening. Do you think
a ket is on like a high offensive production value

(35:58):
standpoint that like, even when you can compare him against
last year's classes of like the CAGs and the Kurts
and stuff like that, is he so firmly behind them
or is he truly a step above from the college bats?

Speaker 3 (36:11):
Yeah? I think so. If you compare Ivrkette to last
year's draft, I don't think he goes in the top
seven picks. He's a very very good player, and from
a fantasy perspective, I'll just throw this out there now,
I would take Ethan Holiday over Ivrkette from a fantasy perspective,
I don't think either one of them is going to
be a terribly dynamic, stolen base threat. So I mean,
at that point, you're just kind of you're just kind

(36:33):
of gambling on who has the better hit tool, who
has the better power projection. I think Holiday has the
better power projection, And you know, Arquette is a good hitter,
he's not a great hitter. I think when you're six
foot five, you're oh and you've got those long, lean levers,
You're going to struggle with velocity in on your hands.
It's a fact of life when you're that big, right,
Any struggled at times with breaking balls Loan Away. So

(36:55):
I think the selling point from a big league prospect
perspective is, I've Rquette is a way better shortstop than
people initially thought. I mean, it's a plus glove, it's
plus arm strength, it's it's the potential for plus power.
But I think it's gonna take years to get there,
So you know, I think realistically, if I was to

(37:18):
point out what I think Arquette will be, at least
for his control years. I think you're probably looking at
like a two sixty two sixty five hitter with twenty
to twenty four homers. Holiday, on the other hand, might
be a you know, and again this is not a
hit on these guys. I'm just speaking realistically. He might
be a two to forty five hitter that hits thirty
five home runs, so way more defensive value from iv R. Kette,

(37:40):
like exceptionally higher defensive value. But the offensive production Holiday
is gonna is gonna throw onto a baseball card is
going to trump that.

Speaker 2 (37:48):
Urkett definitely had a really good college season three fifty four,
four to sixty one OVP over six hundred slug nineteen homers.
There's some strikeouts in there, not a lot of stolen bases,
so you can kind of see where that lays out.
So then the last thing with these guys, it's like,
where do you think if you were to just arbitrarily
look at like a top you know, one hundred, where
do you think you align them if they're drafted right now,

(38:10):
Let's just say it's like Washington gets Ethan Holidays and
number one overall pick Arquette goes somewhere in the top five.

Speaker 1 (38:17):
What range, and I can.

Speaker 2 (38:19):
Throw a couple of players at you after, But what
range would you say you would throw both of these
guys in top twenty five holidays, top twenty five, top
fifty to give me that range, and then I'll throw
just a couple who'd you rathers?

Speaker 3 (38:30):
Yeah? I love this. I think Holiday would probably comfortably
be in my top thirty to thirty five, and I
think Marquette probably not far behind that, probably top forty,
top forty five. But I would love to do it
either or.

Speaker 1 (38:42):
Okay, so now here's some either or.

Speaker 2 (38:45):
So we're gonna start with Ethan Holiday, and I'm kind
of looking at my top thirty not necessarily like a
public like pop Chop Pipeline one Ethan Holiday or Felman
Selston Ethan Holiday.

Speaker 3 (38:56):
Okay, that was easy, So really quickly, is this pro
or fantasy?

Speaker 1 (39:01):
Fantasy? This is fantasy?

Speaker 2 (39:03):
I get Okay, Now, if you want to do pro
what I could do, let's do this. Then I'll pull
up pipeline real quick, because that's just like a public.

Speaker 3 (39:10):
I'm good with either whatever angle you want to take,
but I do think like like From a pro perspective,
I think I would take Holiday by an edge on
our ket. But from a fantasy perspective, I think Holiday,
you know, takes that bar by quite a bit.

Speaker 2 (39:25):
Absolutely So sticking with Holiday, you took Holiday over Selston?
Who I have Selsen is like a top twenty five?
How about Holiday or Weather hold Weather hol weatherhold on
both ends reel end fantasy? Yes, okay, how about this one?
Ethan Holiday or Aiden Miller, who's twenty one on pop pipelines.

(39:45):
That's more of a real life one fantasy. I've got
him a little bit lower. I think I've got him
just outside the top thirty.

Speaker 3 (39:54):
I think I would probably take Aiden Miller. I like
the track record in the pedigree there a little bit
more than Holiday. But I also don't think Miller is
ever going to be the home run hit or that
that Ethan Holiday is. But I would take as a
as a prospect, i'd take Aidan Miller.

Speaker 2 (40:06):
Okay, so now let's move to Arquette. Arquette used to
top forty five. I'm gonna throw this one at you,
and this is on my list as the top. I
have him higher than what you're putting him. But if
Arquette or Arginamala.

Speaker 3 (40:21):
I'm the longest argent Namala stan you will ever find.
But I do have to take Arquette. I have questions
on whether or not Namala is going to play the
shortstop position. And from a pro perspective, give me the
guy that's six foot five and is going to play
a plus defense.

Speaker 2 (40:34):
Okay, so good, So you answered that that's in both
that's real life and fantasy. You're going to take Arquette
over Namala. Yeah, okay, real life perspective, I'll just throw
this one. This should well, Now I'm not I was
about to say Connor Griffin.

Speaker 3 (40:48):
Or Ava, but that's Connor Griffin a lot.

Speaker 1 (40:50):
Yeah, and I have Conor.

Speaker 2 (40:51):
Like I said, once the graduations happened, Conor Griffin will
be my number one overall prospect. So that's not even
remotely close h Bryce Rayner or of Rquette.

Speaker 3 (40:59):
It's so I mean, I feel so bad for Rayner
with the injury. I wish we could get a more
extended look at him. I'll take I'll take IV Rquette.
I think Arkette's got a better chance to play shortstop.

Speaker 2 (41:10):
Okay, the last one I have an Arquette or Cooper Pratt.

Speaker 3 (41:14):
Oh love Cooper Pratt. Uh. I'll take Cooper Pratt on
that one. I think there's some similarities there. I think
Pratt's just gonna absolutely mash.

Speaker 2 (41:23):
Okay, you did a fantastic job of think of breaking
down like where these guys sit. But let's now talk
about the core of this draft. And I It's something
I actually personally love in MLB is when every year
you kind of dictate, You're like, ooh, this is a
college bat heavy, or this is a college pitching heavy,
this is a high school shortstop heavy draft. Especially in
the first round. There's littered with talent that you've already

(41:46):
talked about. Eli Willits is kind of at the top.
I really like him, Billy Carlson, Jojo Parker, case On Cunningham,
Steel Hall, I think, oh god, who is it?

Speaker 1 (41:56):
Daniel what was the other?

Speaker 3 (41:58):
Daniel Pierce, Daniel Peer.

Speaker 2 (42:00):
Daniel Pearce is kind of in there. Those are I
think all the big core. These are guys that could
be drafted higher, that could take more money. There's I mean,
there's just so many different ways they can go. So
you're talking and not to mention, by the way, obviously
Ethan Holliday, who we said. But that's listing out like
six shortstops that could all be top fifteen guys. This

(42:20):
is very heavy in here. We're not gonna break down
every single one of them. But I'd be curious any
guy skill set that stands out above, way above the other.
I mean Cunningham, he showed out at the combine his speed.
I'd be curious that any skill set that stands above others,
that's warranted. And if you want to pick one or

(42:42):
two that you really hyper focused on from their offensive profile.

Speaker 3 (42:46):
Yeah, from a skill set perspective, I think steel Hall
might be the most interesting player of the bunch, just
because he's the you know, if not the fastest player
in the draft. He's up there. You know he's up there.
It's seventy great arm strength at shortstop. It's the ability
to stay at shortstop, and if he doesn't, it's going
to be a really good center fielder. He's going to
steal fifty bags a year. And I think there's enough

(43:07):
twitch and I think there's enough strength in steel Hall
six to suggest that he might be able to get
to twelve to fifteen homers a season. So I'm talking
about a guy that steals, you know, fifty bags and
it's fifteen homers. That's a really, really, really good player.
So steel Hall probably the most interesting in that respect.

(43:27):
I do think that pointing out Caseton Cunningham is important
because he was strong on VP. I wouldn't say that
the row power sticks out, but it was plus run times,
it was plus arm strength, it was good actions at shortstop.
I think he's got a better chance to play shortstop
than I think a lot of people are giving him
credit for. You know, he's got the five foot eleven
five foot ten inch frame and he's kind of got

(43:49):
that running back build. People want to go to Tamar
Johnson right away. I don't think it's the same player
as Ttermar Johnson. I think he's a better athlete than
Tamar ever was. So Cunningham is remarkably interesting and I
think he's probably going to rank higher on prospect boards.
And then people probably anticipate when the twenty twenty six
season rolls around, power.

Speaker 2 (44:07):
Of these shortstops, who's your bank on. If you're banking
on power from a young shortstop and let's let's pair
it with or you can just do this as a
secondary one.

Speaker 1 (44:15):
Then the hit tool.

Speaker 2 (44:16):
You're banking on a hit tool and a power Maybe
it's the same player, maybe it's different.

Speaker 3 (44:19):
Who would you grade so peer power. If we're including
guys that are shortstops now and we move to third base,
I would probably take Xavier Nions. I think it's probably
the best like raw power and bat speed in the class.
I do think he's a third baseman when all of
a said and done, and you really need him to
stay at third base to hold his value. But love
that kid. I think he's gonna hit a lot of

(44:42):
home runs and run a very very high on base
He's a selective hitter.

Speaker 2 (44:46):
I had a pretty high But of these guys, let's
actually of these shortstops. So just of these guys because
Nions I really like, But of these what is it
six shortstops, Daniel Pierce, Hall, Cunningham, park Or Carlson and Willitts.
Who is your favorite power projection and who's your face
overall like contact bat of the just those.

Speaker 3 (45:02):
Guys, Yeah, you know, I think Jojo Parker probably takes
the cake with every respect. It's okay, it's probably a
sixty hit tool. He's six foot two, two hundred pounds
and it's a very projectable left handed swing. Like I
feel like someone's gonna tap into this kid and be
able to unlock a little bit more power. I do

(45:24):
think Jojo Parker is capable of hitting twenty two to
twenty four homers a season while hitting two eighty five.
Billy Carlson would be the other one that I think
is important to watch. He's got a lot of growing
to do. He's got growing to do mechanically in the
box that there is going to require a swing change.
But there's not another player in this class that is
as whippy and elastic and projectable as Billy Carlson is

(45:48):
from a frame perspective. And he's already showing plus basspeed.
I just wonder how quickly into his career he's going
to get to it. If he gets to it, it's
the best drop hower of the shortstop class, I think
by a half grade.

Speaker 2 (46:00):
I do love that you said Joe, because I actually
have Jojo in my fantasy ranks. Of these guys, I've
got Jojo over any of these shortstops that we're talking about,
So he's my top one. So that's good confirmation. I
guess the only other guy just in any nugget, you've
kind of off mentioned him. But Eli Willets, what do
you think in his offensive profile? If we were to
see him like all of a sudden cut some number
one deal, Like, are you is this is the offensive profile?

(46:23):
Get you excited? You're talking to Billy Carlson, You're talking
abou Jojoe Parker?

Speaker 3 (46:26):
Is it?

Speaker 2 (46:27):
Is he more of just a total complete player? What's
your report on Eli Willetts?

Speaker 3 (46:32):
So, I think Tommy Edmund is kind of a something
you can look at as Eli Willets. My conference is
Eric Ibar from the Angels way back when in the
early early odds. I think he's gonna hit a ton
Like I think he's gonna be a two eighty five
to ninety two ninety five hitter. Like he's gonna run
a high average. It's it's supreme elite at the ball skills.

(46:52):
It's solid average to above average run times. And he
can play shortstop, you can play center field. My question
is just like it's a small frame, Like, it's not
a frame that you build a lot of muscle onto.
And he's not showing a ton of batspeed at this stage.
So I think it's going to be a high average
high on base twelve to fourteen homers at his peak,

(47:13):
who plays very very good defense, And that's a really
really that's a really really valuable player from a pro perspective,
but from a fantasy perspective, it's threading the needle a
little bit more.

Speaker 2 (47:25):
So, would you rank if you were ranking these guys,
would you rank it like and think of just fantasy?

Speaker 1 (47:30):
Now just fantasy?

Speaker 2 (47:30):
Would you go like Parker, Carlson Hall, and then maybe
Pierce Cunningham will It's like, I'm just randomly throwing one
out here. If you were ranking these all just for fantasy,
how would you rank those six?

Speaker 3 (47:45):
Give me this? What's your appetite for risk?

Speaker 2 (47:48):
I'm a pretty risk I'm willing to play some risk,
Like I don't need floor.

Speaker 3 (47:53):
That I'm taking Carlson one. I'm taking Carlson one. If
you're going caution to the wind. I think I'd actually
take Daniel Pierce two because I think there's a good
combination there. Jojo Parker three, Eli Willets four. I don't
really buy into the power projection from Cason Cunningham down
the road, so give me him five, I guess, But

(48:14):
I will say the separation between all of these guys
is pretty marginal.

Speaker 1 (48:18):
Yeah, and that's why it's like such an interesting crass.

Speaker 2 (48:20):
Yeah you're playing yeah, and most fantasy like if you're
playing that upside, like, these are a lot of guys
to potentially bank on that are going to probably be
somewhere in the like five to twelve range, five to
fifteen range, and like first year player drafts college bats,
so this is not on the short stop.

Speaker 1 (48:37):
There's some interesting college bats.

Speaker 2 (48:39):
Golden Spike winner loy Ike Irish, who you've talked about
Brendan Summer Summer Hill with U of a pretty interesting
chase le Violette, if I'm saying the name correctly, that
was a potential top pick who.

Speaker 1 (48:52):
We were talking about. So I'd be.

Speaker 2 (48:54):
Curious that your takes kind of in the same vein
of the high school conversation, Like where do you think
some of the offensive pieces stand out with these guys?
Is they're big separators like rank like just kind of breakthrough.
Just some notes on these college these are probably the
top non I have a college bats. If people are
trying to bank on it doesn't look like last year, doesn't.

(49:16):
I'm not sure any of these guys are going to
be up in the majors a year from now, which
is kind of the thing that's going to hurt a
lot of people. But what do you think from offensive
profiles on these college bats I picked out.

Speaker 3 (49:27):
Yeah, I think if you're again, if your appetite for
risk is super high, Jayson Lovlette has the best chance
of turning into a thirty thirty guy. It's enormous raw power,
comfortably plus maybe better. It's the six foot five inch frame.
He runs like a deer. It's above average to plus
run tools. He's probably going to play center field early
in his career. He might be able to stay there.

(49:48):
There's obviously platoon risk here. He looked uncomfortable against left
handed pitching this season, and in general, the swing and
miss wasn't where you wanted to see it. But if
you're willing to take a shot on a guy that's
just an absolute tool shit, that's your pick. That's your pick.
I mean, he's if you enjoyed the output that Jack

(50:09):
Peterson gave you in twenty twenty one twenty twenty two,
with maybe a touch more speed, that's probably what you're
looking at here. From Jace Lovelette, I think Gavin Killen,
the second Baseman, shortstop from Tennessee, is a guy to
really watch. He's a pretty good runner, he's a really
good hitter, and he flashed He just flashed it. It

(50:29):
wasn't consistent, but he flashed above average drop power this
season with a swing change. So I think he would
be a pretty fun combination of ceiling and floor to
go after this this year. Like Irish, I think is
A is a wonderful bet. I think personally it's an
above average hit tool, it's above average drop power. There's
more ground balls than you'd like to see, but his

(50:50):
ability to avoid strikeouts and make contact with anything inside
outside of the zone is pretty remarkable. Some of the
other guys you mentioned Beheva Alloy, a lot of swing
and miss, a lot of chase, a lot of raw power.
I think a lot of his value kind of comes
at the shortstop position. So from a fantasy perspective, quite
a bit of risk there. Brandon summer Hill is gonna hit,

(51:11):
and he's gonna hit, and he's gonna hit. I don't
know about the power, I don't know about the the
innate speed. It's almost like a Garrett Mitchell kind of
a profile. You really hope the power comes. It never
did for Mitchell. Some of these other guys that I'll
point out just in passing from a fantasy perspective, maryck
Houston isn't gonna be much of a power threat, but
he'll run a little bit. Luke Stevenson might be able

(51:34):
to give you like budget, Kyle Schwarber vibes, lots of strikeouts,
low average, lots of homers, and yeah, so I think
those are the big ones that need to be covered
from a fantasy perspective.

Speaker 2 (51:46):
So the only thing left on this of those college bats,
although Irish Somerville love is lette, who would you put
above any of those high school shortstops if you're thinking
fantasy risk tolerance, all of that, all those six short
stops that we put out there, would any of those
college bats offensive profile supersed any of those high school

(52:07):
bats for you?

Speaker 3 (52:08):
I have Ike Irish above the Daniel Pierce's, the Steel Halls,
the Case and Cunningham's, but I have him below Billy
Carlson and Jojo Parker. I think he's really going to hit,
and I think he's going to hit for some power.
And also he's versatile enough to where he can catch,
he can play the outfield. I don't think he's going
to pigeonhole himself into playing three days a week behind

(52:29):
the plate. I think he's going to play a lot.
So I would take Ike Irish above some of those
high school shortstops that you had mentioned, and again with
wherever your appetite for risk is, I think Gavin Keelen
is as valuable, if not more valuable, than Daniel Pearce
and Cason Cunningham, especially as it pertains to like, hey,

(52:49):
he's done this in the SEC, He's gonna move quick.
I would probably take Gavin keeln over Cunningham and Pierce.

Speaker 2 (52:56):
Okay, love it all right, Let's move to the pitching
college arm. This is something that this draft definitely has
a decent amount, Especially in the first round. We've got
some college arms. If you want to bank on who
are the first players from this draft class to make
to the majors, you might want to bank on the
arms before you bank on the bats.

Speaker 1 (53:13):
That's just that would be my personal take on it.

Speaker 2 (53:16):
I think the core you're looking at is Kate Anderson,
Liam Doyle, Jamie Arnold. From the college arm perspective, I
think that's the tier that we kind of start with
there's some interesting mid guys at one other player. But
I'd love to get your take on these three pitchers
where they shine, and then we'd like to I want
to kind of place them on an overall versus some

(53:36):
other pitching prospects that are in baseball right now. But
let's get some snippets real quick on these three and
what are the separators between them.

Speaker 3 (53:44):
Kate Anderson is Polish pitchability, five pitches track record. Obviously
he's done it on the biggest stage. It's three or
four above average pitches with a potential plus curve ball.
I don't know if he's going to give you enormous ceiling,
but as a number three starting pitching prospect, I think
you'd feel pretty good about that about that floor. I've

(54:07):
kind of comped him to Cole Hamill's a little bit.
There's some similarities there. I think Hamill's peak is going
to be higher than what Kate Anderson can achieve. But
at the same time, like if you're looking for, you know,
Cole Hamill's John Lester, that's a pretty good bet that
Anderson's going to get there. Liam Doyle and Jamie Arnold
are the enigmas in this class, Like are they starters?

(54:29):
Are they relievers? What's it going to look like at
the end of this is is Liam Doyle Tanner Scott?
Is Liam Doyle something much much greater? Is Jamie Arnold
you know some semblance of a smaller framed Chris Saal
Or is he you know, a really crafty left handed
reliever that gets big outs in the eighth and ninth inning.

(54:51):
Like that's the question that everyone's asking right now. If
I was to take one from a fantasy perspective, personally,
it would be Liam Doyle. I think some of the
concerns that you know, Liam's throwing like seventy two percent
fastballs this season, which is the highest mark of anybody
that's ever gone in the first round since like eton
small from what Mississippi State, like twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen,

(55:16):
So and obviously that hasn't worked out great. But Liam
Doyle has shown the splitter, he shown the cutter, he
shown the slider. I think he's got a better chance
to start long term than Jamie Arnold. And I think
the strikeout stuff is just massive. So yeah, I mean again,
like this has kind of been the topic of conversation
this year, Chris, Like, what's your appetite for risk? If

(55:37):
it's If it's you're looking for a starting pitcher, it's
Kate Anderson. If you're looking for potentially something more that
needs some refinement, that has some risk, for me, it
would be Liam Doyle and I.

Speaker 2 (55:50):
And it's funny if going to my just my amateur
ranks and the update, I have Liam Doyle as my
top guy just for the pure sake of the stuff.

Speaker 1 (55:59):
And where it can go.

Speaker 2 (56:00):
Oh, I mean, Kat Anderson impressive, one hundred and thirty pitches,
you know, I mean in championship game, it's awesome. I
think all those guys are close. I've always been really
intrigued by the arm action on Jamie Arnold, you know.

Speaker 1 (56:12):
But we'll see where that goes.

Speaker 2 (56:13):
I've got Arnold below Kate Anderson and Liam Doyle, but
I've got them all kind of in a grouping. And
it's always a matter of like value. It's a tough
thing in first year player drafts in fantasy is like
what you want to commit into starting pitching and over
the upside here. But these are all arms that I
think that are super intriguing versus maybe some of the

(56:33):
upside a lot of those shortstops we talked about. So
do you believe all three of these college pitchers are
let's say, top seventy five prospects in baseball once they're drafted.

Speaker 3 (56:46):
Yeah, that's about the mark that I would say. Doyle
would be in that sixty top sixty range, and I
just off the cuff, I would think Arnold would be
seventy five to eighty for me. Yeah, that sounds about right.

Speaker 1 (56:58):
Okay, So let's take these three.

Speaker 2 (57:00):
This will be a little game that we're gonna play
here with these three guys, since are all relatively close.
We know you're ordering here, and I'm gonna name a
pitcher in the minor leagues and you just say is
a higher belower or if there's a line, you could
be like, oh, this guy's above you know, Jamie Arnold,
but not these other two. Okay, And we will start
with gauge jump. Gauge jump with the athletics. Who has

(57:23):
made a massive rise gauge jump versus these three?

Speaker 3 (57:27):
I would take, Oh man, I would take Kate Anderson
over gauge jump right now, but with what he has
shown in the minor leagues, I would probably take gauge
Jump over Liam Doyle and Jamie Arnold. The thing with
Gauge that concerns me a little bit is he's on
the undersized side of things. He's had injury history, and

(57:53):
throughout points in his career at LSU at UCLA, he's
just been hit around. I don't know whether or not
the athletics unlocked something with him or he's just finally
coming into his own, But I mean, Gates Jump is
one of the top two or three left handed pitching
prospects in the sport right now, and I would have
a very hard time taking many pitching prospects over him

(58:15):
just with what he's done.

Speaker 2 (58:16):
Okay, so I'm going to now move up my personal
rank Travis Socora versus these three.

Speaker 3 (58:23):
I'm not as as big on Travis Sicora as others.
I still think there's relief risk there. I've never kind
of loved the mover. I would probably take Liam Doyle
over Travis Sicora. I would take KATEA. Anderson over Travis Acora.
He would probably be in my Jamie Arnold range. That
may be a hot take. I'm not exactly sure where

(58:44):
most other people have Travis Skora, but I think him
and Arnold would both kind of be in my fifty
five to sixty five seventy range.

Speaker 2 (58:51):
Okay, two more. This one I think is kind of
in the middle. Has had a kind of underwhelming season.
Noah Schultz, Noahs Schultz versus these three.

Speaker 3 (58:58):
Pitchers, Yeah, I would take Noah Schultz over I think
I would still take no A. Schultz over all three
of these. He's got legitimate number two upside and even
though it hasn't really come together this season, like angles
six foot seven, big v low, huge breaking ball feel
for a split change, like he's going to figure it out,
and you know before you even say it, just because
I don't. I don't know if this guy's gonna come up,

(59:20):
but I'm just going to bring him up. I would
take Hagan Smith over all three of these guys too.
I know he's had a remarkably difficult first year in Chicago,
but you can't fake what he did at Arkansas. I
think it's going to come together. So yeah, I would
take Hagan Smith over these threes.

Speaker 2 (59:36):
I wasn't, but like I'm I've seen him pitch a
bunch with the White Sox out here. The only thing
I don't know that how it translates long term. This
is why I love Chase Burns more than him coming
out of the draft was he's so reliant, especially from
a strikeout perspective of like in zone whiffs like it
doesn't get people chasing outside of the zone, and it's
like that's great, Now, well what is that going to
look like when we get to higher levels. He also

(59:58):
was on the developmental list with the White Sox. Right now,
maybe that's reworking some of the stuff. He's been trying
to add a change up so that there's some stuff
that's going on there.

Speaker 1 (01:00:05):
But he's super impressive.

Speaker 2 (01:00:07):
The one I was going to ask is the last
one Jonah Tongue Jonah Tong versus these three pictures.

Speaker 3 (01:00:16):
So here's my thing with Yonah Tong. I just don't
know how the frame is going to hold up with
that delivery. I mean, it's so much contralateral trunk tilt
that I just wonder about his back. I mean, and
I know that I'm a I'm not a biomechanic expert, right,
this is not my forte, but I know a thing

(01:00:36):
or two. I just wonder whether or not he's going
to be able to sustain that delivery. As a starting
pitcher throughout the course of his career. I would take
Liam Doyle over him. I would take Kate Anderson over him.
But there's no denying how good Jonah Tong has been.

Speaker 2 (01:00:52):
Okay, we're gonna move to the picture that I don't
know if you even quite said this, but you've kind
of insinuated. It seems like you might be your top
picture in this class, and it's Seth Hernandez.

Speaker 1 (01:01:02):
And the thing.

Speaker 2 (01:01:04):
That is dicey about a guy like Seth Hernandez and
fantasy is he is a high school pitcher and the
risk so that is where and that's why I didn't
put him in with the other big guys because maybe
from a talent perspective, you can like him more. High
school pitching is tough for fantasy owners in general, but
talk to us about Seth Hernandez. You know, he is
massively talented. If you're if you're willing to take on

(01:01:26):
some risk, do you think you should invest in Seth
Hernandez before you invest in any of those college pitchers.

Speaker 1 (01:01:33):
Let's hear it you on Suth Hernandez.

Speaker 3 (01:01:35):
Yeah, so I actually have Sether's as my top prospect
in this draft. I don't know how much ceiling a
lot of these players have. I think there's a lot
of very very good players. I don't know if there's
like franchise altering tools from a lot of them. I
personally would have Seth Hernandez as a top twenty prospect

(01:01:56):
in the sport, and from a pitching perspective, I wouldn't
have behind many. He would be behind Chase Burns, he
would be behind Missierowski, he would probably be behind Bubba
Chandler and Andrew Paynter. Is a bit of a coin flip,
but like he for me, he's in the exact same
bucket as some of these other guys that the Red Louders,
the Hagen Smith's, the the the the Thomas Whites, you know,

(01:02:20):
take your pick. I think he's a top five pitching
prospect in the sport right away. It's a seventy change up.
It's the makings of a plus breaking ball. If it
continues to take steps in the right direction, it's up
to one hundred miles an hour, you know. I it's
the tough thing with Seth for me is and this
is you know you alluded to, This is Jackson jobs

(01:02:40):
falling apart. Dylan Musco has fallen apart, Mick Abels had struggles,
Andrew Paynter has blown out. Like there's so many high
school righties that were picked high that have just really
struggled to get their footing. I think you can get
in trouble as an evaluator if you look at the
past and you look at those injuries and you say
that's gonna happen to Seth Hernandez too. I don't necessarily

(01:03:02):
know if that's the case. I'll put it this way.
It's a good way of wrapping this up with a bow.
If there was a player in this class that has
a legitimate chance to be a five or a six
win top of the rotation ace, I think it's probably Seth.
I think he's the best chance at a franchise altering

(01:03:24):
player in the twenty twenty five class, and I think
he immediately slots, like I said, into the top five
pitching prospects in the sport.

Speaker 2 (01:03:30):
And I think something to maybe take a look at
is because we have not built a core of like man,
we feel really great about this and hey, there's these
college guys that could get.

Speaker 1 (01:03:38):
To the majors.

Speaker 2 (01:03:39):
This might be a ceiling fantasy draft the first year player.
This might be like, heya, play the ceiling, Like you're
not trading up into a first year player draft to
get an eight pick to go and take Jamie Arnold.
You know, like you don't want to really trade into
this draft, and maybe your best set is just being
comfortable with some volatility and just in screw it, I'm
gonna go with Ethan Holliday, I'm gonna go with Sethrnandez

(01:04:00):
and then just everything else is going to fall. It
might be an upside play. High school arms are definitely
pretty risky, but you know, hey, you laid it out, Man's.

Speaker 1 (01:04:08):
That's where it is.

Speaker 2 (01:04:09):
Two last things. One is a helium arm. And I
know there's some players we haven't talked about, but the
College World Series really put it a shine to everybody
on Gauge Wood, a different gauge. Gauge Wood seems to
have been one of those guys that, after you know,
his performance vaulted into the first round, do you think
he's a legitimate first round guy that we should be
paying attention to. And as far as like the arms go,

(01:04:32):
you know, I guess we didn't talk about Witherspoon A
Ton there's a couple other arms out there, like where
do you think he ranks him among the arms first
round pick? And is he like a top eight starting
pitcher from this draft class or ten?

Speaker 3 (01:04:43):
Yeah, I have gauge Wood as the number fifteen prospect
in this in the class I have Whetherspoon eleven, I've
Bremner twelve, would fifteen. I think he fits in with
any of these guys that I you know, I think
he's the guy that is the most likely to cut
a deal early in the draft. You know, of course,
the Cad Horton narrative is going to be there. And

(01:05:05):
I think for good reason, the two guys that I
really like in this draft, if they end up in
the right organization, Patrick Forbes at Louisville, A J. Russell
at Tennessee, huge explosive fastballs, really really good movers, and
it's just been inconsistent. So if you get these guys
in the right organization where they're like mental or visual

(01:05:25):
cues or something changes. And AJ Russell only pitched a
handful of innings coming back from TJ this year. But
you get these guys in the right organization, I think
either Forbes or Russell could end up being a top
three pitcher over the long term from this class.

Speaker 2 (01:05:40):
Interesting and last one is who else should we keep
an eye on? We talked about a ton of freaking
players in here. You just threw out even some more
We didn't really get into. Merrick Houston, Gavin Feen, someone
I really like he was at the combine, Josh Hammond
another one I was, I'm just thrown out a couple
of players.

Speaker 1 (01:05:56):
If there was one or.

Speaker 2 (01:05:57):
Two you could pick a hitter and a pitcher, or
just two players or whatever that we haven't really covered
here that you think need more concentration or people really
need to keep an eye on this draft?

Speaker 1 (01:06:06):
Who would you who'd you pick?

Speaker 3 (01:06:08):
I think I would bring up Xavier Nions. I know
we spoke on him very very briefly, but like I said,
I think it might be, if not the best power
bat in the class, you know, top two, top three.
If Xavier Nions would have done VP with Brandon Compton,
he would have ripped someone fifteen's and he's playing second
or he's playing shortstop and third base right now. He's
got a very selective eye. He's going to take a

(01:06:29):
ton of walks. He's a very very interesting player. And
you know the comp that I've had for him for
a while and it's not perfect, but the early years
of Pedro Alvarez where he was just a mashing monster
for the Pirates and he was capable of playing third base,
like that might be the player that you're getting with
Xavier Nions. And I think he's an exceptionally talented, talented guy,

(01:06:51):
so I would take him pretty high in this class.
I would take Nions above the Pierces, the Halls, the Cunninghams.
Just so it's on record.

Speaker 1 (01:06:59):
Pretty dang.

Speaker 2 (01:07:00):
Joe Doyle from a Future Star series Overslot podcast, what's
going on? What I mean, obviously the draft is going on,
but is there anything specific you want to hit?

Speaker 1 (01:07:08):
I know you're going to be doing.

Speaker 2 (01:07:09):
You've got your podcast series that's going on mock drafts.
Just hit us with a few things to be on
the lookout for leading up to the draft.

Speaker 3 (01:07:15):
Yeah, man, Top six hundred came out today Wednesday, so
you can check that out. There will be a top
I think it's like six hundred and eighteen. I always do. However,
the amount of picks there are, so if there's going
to be six hundred and eighteen draft, picks or six
hundred and thirteen draft picks. I'm going to put out
a board right before the draft that has that amount
of players on it, so you can look for that.
I'm going to have several mock drafts from what I'm

(01:07:36):
hearing over the course of the next handful of weeks
that go out probably every three or four days at
Future Star Series Plus. But if you really eat this
stuff up and you're all about the draft twice a
week Patreon, dot com, slash or overslot, We're talking draft
on the podcast and come join that community.

Speaker 2 (01:07:52):
You can follow him on Twitter at Joe Doyle m ilb.

Speaker 1 (01:07:55):
Make sure to do so. Joel, Joe, you're the man.

Speaker 2 (01:07:57):
You're always hanging with me, always giving me the time.
I appreciate six love talking with you. Yeah, six years
in a row, Chris, That's right. We keep rocking it.
I know, I got.

Speaker 1 (01:08:05):
I also feel bad because I.

Speaker 2 (01:08:07):
Get pigeonholed sometimes into stuff where I'm like, I just
need to get Joe on during the season and just
have a normal conversation too. That's not just draft centric,
because I'll have that where it's like I'll only get
picked at certain times. But you know this is your
super Bowl, man, and you're one of the You do
such a great job.

Speaker 3 (01:08:22):
I really do.

Speaker 1 (01:08:23):
Think, like.

Speaker 2 (01:08:25):
You know, you deserve you juster have a lot more
credit in the space of like what you're doing with it.
Not even a hitting Jim. You have thirty thousand followers
and you've got a bunch of people out there, but
like you know, there's a big space for this in
Baseball American pipeline, and I think you belong in that discussion.

Speaker 1 (01:08:38):
So I appreciate you, my friend. Thank you for taking
the time.

Speaker 2 (01:08:42):
And I will be uh, you know, looking at my
DMS and my ears to the ground hearing any of
those nuggets that you drop.

Speaker 1 (01:08:48):
So appreciate your brother.

Speaker 3 (01:08:49):
Appreciate you man, Thank you for the kind of words.

Speaker 2 (01:08:51):
Thanks again to Joe Doyle for taking the time out
for me talking for an hour about.

Speaker 1 (01:08:55):
These draft prospects. I hope you guys enjoyed it.

Speaker 2 (01:08:57):
I'm gonna put out some snippets on the YouTube YouTube
dot com slash in this League of some of these
if you want to, I don't know if you just
want to visually, if you listen to the podcast, you
want to visually see as you can. But I'm gonna
be putting out some of those on the YouTube, so
you can go and follow there. Appreciate the support, and
you know, even just following the YouTube channel can kind
of push and motivate us to put more content on there.

(01:09:17):
So just go and follow it and it'll notify you.

Speaker 1 (01:09:20):
Of all the future stuff.

Speaker 2 (01:09:21):
Shout out to Dennis Sidler at SIDS Graphs. Make sure
you check SIDS Graphs out for all your prospect autographs,
whether it's major leaguers like Ivan Herrera who he just had,
or it's big future prospects who like we will probably
see Louis Payne at the Futures Game. That's someone that
he has got and he will probably be out at
the I know he will be at the Futures Game
and he usually does some great signings with prospects. So

(01:09:44):
check it out on the socials eBay and website. Just
search SIDS graphs and you can check out all the
great stuff he has. And I appreciate Dennis and his
support of prospect one. Like I said, next week, we
will be most likely looking at a rank series of
update ranks. You know, potentially if the future Game rosters
are out, maybe we'll kind of slide that in as well,

(01:10:05):
But the update is finalizing today. Like I said, I
am traveling out. I'm at a competit. My kids have
a competition, so I'm out for four days. We're in
a hotel and that kind of lets me hone in
on some stuff I can get done. So I will
be finalizing that update. It'll be posted on Patreon at
in this League dot com. So if you guys want
access to the dynasty and the prospects and the draft

(01:10:26):
pre rookie draft ranks that I've got and the p
and ADP's we've done, please go and support sign up
for in this League dot com and that update will
be to you.

Speaker 1 (01:10:35):
Here very shortly. That is it.

Speaker 2 (01:10:37):
I hope you guys have a fantastic fricking week. I
will be in dance competition just I don't want to
call it hell because it's actually a pretty good time.
But it's gonna be chaos, but I will be around
answering questions and stuff like that. So I hope you
guys have a fantastic week. I'm going to try to
get through it, but we will talk to you next
time and next week right here on Prospect one by

(01:10:58):
Friends

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Episode 402 - 2025 MLB Draft Talk with Joe Doyle

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Episode 402 - 2025 MLB Draft Talk with Joe Doyle