October 7, 2025 • 16 mins
Farmer sentiment held steady in September, as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose just 1 point to a reading of 126. However, there was a shift in producers’ perceptions of current conditions and their expectations for the future. The Index of Current Conditions fell 7 points to 122, while the Index of Future Expectations climbed 5 points to 128. The survey was conducted following the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s release of the September Crop Production report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. These reflected farmers’ concerns about current conditions, particularly over record-high corn and soybean yields, which were pressuring crop prices. At the same time, optimism about the future was supported by farmers’ belief that U.S. policy is “headed in the right direction” and by expectations that potential government support, like the 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP), will provide payments to farmers in compensation for lower commodity prices. The barometer survey took place Sept. 15-19.
Purdue ag economists James Mintert and Michael Langemeier review the results from the September Ag Economy Barometer and give their insights into farmer sentiment and the farm economy.
The Ag Economy Barometer sentiment index is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers’ responses to a telephone survey. Further details on the full report is available at https://purdue.edu/agbarometer. Slides and the transcript from the discussion can be found at https://purdue.ag/agcast198.
You can find the FULL video episode on our YouTube channel. Visit https://youtu.be/Ujekqgm6DQk to subscribe and watch.
Podcast provided by Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture. For more economic information and insights on the Ag Economy Barometer, visit us at http://purdue.edu/commercialag.
Subscribe to audio: https://purdue.ag/agcast
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:05):
Welcome to Purdue Commercial icast atPurdue University Center for Commercial
Agriculture's Podcast featuring farmmanagement news and information.
I'm your host today, James Mintert,Emeritus Professor of Agricultural
Economics at Purdue University.
And joining me today is my colleague,Dr. Michael Langemeier who's the
Director of the Center for CommercialAgriculture and also Professor of
Agricultural Economics here at Purdue.
We're gonna review the results fromthe September 2025 Purdue University
(00:29):
-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Surveyof farmers from across the nation.
Each month we survey 400 farmersacross the U.S. to learn more about
their perspectives on the ag economy.
This month's Ag Barometer surveywas conducted from the 15th
through the 19th of September.
And Michael, the barometeractually rose a point to 126.
I don't think that one point changeis significant in any way, but it
(00:52):
leaves that index, 32 points lowerthan it was back in May, and that was
the index's high point so far in 2025.
And a year ago, the index wasjust 88, so it's 38 points
higher than it was a year ago.
So two contrasting things that werelower than we were back in May, but
we are still significantly higherthan we were a year ago this time.
(01:13):
What do you make of that?
Um, I, I think we're still, we're stillrelatively high after the election.
I think that's part of it.
We're also gonna talk more about this, butI think, I think one of the things that's
keeping the index up is, is livestock.
I mean, about 25 to 30% of the, ofthe survey respondents are primary
livestock producers is even a higherpercent that have livestock, and I
think that's helping keep the index up.
(01:34):
Yeah, I, I agree with that.
And we've been talking aboutthat for the last few months, and
that continues to be the case.
The Index of Current Conditionsfell seven points to 122.
That's 24 points below its peak backin May, for 2025, which was 146.
And the Future Expectation Indexactually rose a little bit, rose
five points to 128, but that'safter a 16 point drop in August.
(01:57):
The September Future Expectation Index wasdown 36 points from its 2025 peak in May.
If you look at what's taken placethere is a little bit of a surprise
here in the sense that that FutureExpectation Index rose a little bit.
Or that was unexpected, at least by me.
That was unexpected, but I think itis related to some policy questions
that we're gonna discuss here.
I think there's some, there's some policyoptimism, if you will, that's keeping
(02:21):
that, that's keeping that index up.
And I don't wanna overplay thefact that it rose five points.
Maybe the more significantnote is that it's still down
relative to where it was in July.
It makes more sense to menow that it's higher than the
Index of Current Conditions.
I think the, I think the Index of CurrentConditions are reflecting the fact
that we have really low crop prices.
Yeah.
Good point.
So, you know, it's useful to lookat some of the raw questions,
(02:43):
not just the indexes themselves.
And looking ahead, do you think it'smore likely that U.S. ag during the
next five years will have widespreadgood times or widespread bad times?
And if you look at it, the percentageof producers who expect good
times is down 15 points since May.
While the percentage expecting badtimes has climbed 12 points since May.
So it's really flipped in in a big way.
(03:05):
In fact, those two, uh, responserates are actually getting pretty darn
close to each other with 38% sayinggood times, 32% saying bad times.
And if you look at, um, the, therelated question over the next
five years are widespread goodtimes or bad times more likely for
the livestock or the crop sector.
This kind of reinforces thepoint you were making earlier.
(03:25):
People are much more optimisticabout what's gonna take place
in the livestock sector.
64%, uh, same good times for thelivestock sector and only 25% for crops.
Yeah, it's a 40 point difference.
And, and, uh, uh, we're gonna goahead and share the slides that
we're, we're talking about here today,but that, that's extremely wide.
I mean, we, we sometimesthey're similar and sometimes
(03:45):
they're like 10 points apart.
Uh, maybe 15 points apart.
But 40 points, uh, just,just huge difference.
And the way they way they thinkabout the next five years.
And you know, if you look at it on achart, that line for livestock good times
is actually trending up in a significantway over these last roughly two years.
Whereas the crop side hasbeen sideways to down.
(04:07):
Uh, and in fact, one of the lowestreadings we've gotten going back to, um.
When we started collecting datain 2015, I think the only time
it was lower was a year ago.
This time in September 24th.
Yeah.
Excellent point.
I mean, it, it, it hasn't been thislow really since, since we started
collecting data in late 2015.
Yeah, it, it's record low and so I,that tells you how dire things are.
I think for crop producers,at least in the short run.
(04:29):
If a trade war leads to lowerprices for U.S. ag products, how
likely do you think it is thatfarmers will receive compensation?
Similar to 2019's Market FacilitationProgram, which is also referred
to commonly as the MFP program.
83% of producers expect a programis similar to 2019's MFP, to
provide a backstop to farm incomes.
(04:50):
And 62% said very likely, 21% said likely.
We've asked this question before,the percentages we got back in
the spring when we asked this werepositive, but not this positive.
People are really convinced now.
Yes.
And I think there has been somediscussion about policymakers that
this is probably gonna happen, uh,whether there'll be similar, who knows?
(05:14):
Yeah.
And if you think about it though,this is one of the things that's
backstopping farmer sentiment.
Definitely.
Uh, farmer sentiment in my view, would belower than it is without this expectation
of an MFP program coming along to bailout, uh, crop producers for weak prices.
The Farm Financial PerformanceIndex fell three points in
September to a reading of 88.
(05:34):
This month's index is down 21 pointscompared to where it was in May.
And May wasn't actually the high point ofthe year, I think the high point was was,
uh, January, but May was pretty close.
But again, kind of highlighting this bigdifference in sentiment and perspective
that's taken place from May to September.
We've really seen a decline.
Yeah.
Essentially the first six months of theyear were, were, were higher, they were
(05:57):
hovering right around that a hundred.
In the last three months we've been,we've been at 90 or slightly below.
The Farm Capital Investment Indexfell eight points this month.
That's after a rise last month,so it, it kind of undid the, the
rise that took place a month ago.
The September reading is thesecond lowest reading of 2025.
January a reading of 48was low with the lowest.
(06:19):
If you look at it on a chart, theindex just kind of bounces up and
down from one month to the next.
If you look at it compared to a year ago.
That index is quite a bit stronger.
53 versus 35 a year ago.
You go back two years ago, was it 39.
Three years ago it was 31.
So it, it surprises me that we're seeingthat strong of an index for capital
(06:41):
investment relative to these last threeyears, given where we're at with, for
example, that Current Condition Index.
Yeah, this is very surprising.
I think it, it's, it went up after theelection and, and it's really stayed up.
It bounces around, but it, it stayed ata higher level, uh, like you said, than
it was the previous two to three years.
And partly what's also going on withthis question, this question's very
(07:03):
difficult to, to, to, uh, to try tofigure out whether this is driving
the Index or Current Conditions, whichis part of, or whether it's driving
the Index of Future Expectations.
I think it's driving both and we'vegot a colleague that that's doing some
research on, on, you know, lookingat the, looking at the relationship
between Farm Capital InvestmentIndex and, and the aggregate indices.
And, and I think part of whenthey answer this question, they're
(07:26):
partly thinking short term.
Is this a good time for cropproducers to, to, to buy equipment?
No.
But they're also thinkinga little longer term.
And so if you, if you're somewhatoptimistic about the policy
environment five years out, you'regonna be a little bit more optimistic
with respect to this question.
Yeah.
This is a complicated question.
It it is.
And I guess, you know, one of thethings that we've been trying to,
(07:48):
uh, look results from this, from in,in terms of interpreting it was, you
know, what's this mean for things like.
Farm machinery sales, and we've done somemodeling in that respect and, and weren't
very successful, at least initially.
Um, it's, it doesn't seem to beproviding a good indication as to
what's gonna happen with respect totractor and combine sales in particular.
Right.
At least short term.
(08:09):
Yeah.
Um, if you look at the responsesunderneath that index, uh, which is
the question, thinking about largefarm investments like buildings
and machinery, do you think now's agood time or a bad time to buy 'em?
Um, the index is, is really interestingthat the, in, although the investment
index fell this month, the percentageof producers who say it's a bad time to
invest is still well below a year ago.
(08:30):
So that kind of speaks to whatyou were talking about, this
complicated nature of the question.
And then for a long timewe were at about 10%.
Good time was about 10% fora two, three year period.
All the way from, from '21 all the wayright before the, uh, the '24 election.
And then it jumped upto that 15 to 25 range.
And so, and, and, and that's true forboth the good time but also bad time.
(08:51):
Bad time went down about 10 points andthe good time went up about 10 points.
And so there's your 20 points.
Yeah.
And it's, it's really interesting.
If you look at, again, on a chart,going back to roughly September of
'21, it's, it's moving sideways, butat a pretty low level prior to that.
Time we were operating at a littlehigher level with respect to the
percentage of people saying good time.
So there's been kind ofa shift since about '21.
(09:13):
Yeah.
Uh, the Short -Term Farmland ValueExpectation Index at 106 was six
points lower than a month earlier,and it was 18 points lower than it
was 2025 peak of 124 back in May.
And again, you look at it on achart and it looks like we've got
a clear cut downtrend underway withrespect to people losing confidence
(09:34):
in the idea that farmland valuesare gonna continue to go up.
When I received the raw data thismonth, this is one of the questions
I really wanted to get a handle onbecause, because we all know how
important farmland is to the, to thenon-current part of the balance sheet.
And, and it, it's still positive,but it's getting closer and
closer to that index of a hundred.
(09:55):
Are you gonna stick your neck out and saywhat it's gonna be at the end of the year?
I think it'll, I think it'llstay above 100, but it's gonna,
it's, it's not gonna increase.
I just can't paint a picturewhere it increases it.
It depends a little bit on thetiming of the MFP payments.
Good point.
Yeah.
Good point.
I, if you look at thetrend, it's drifting lower.
Yeah.
So if you had to guess what'sgonna happen next month, maybe
(10:17):
lose another couple of points.
Yeah.
So, um, and you know, if you look atthe real responses to the question
as you were just talking about.
Um, this month's change in theindex was really attributable to a
shift among producers choosing aboutthe same from the higher category.
So in other words, it wasn't because morepeople said farmland values are going
down, it was because people, an increasingpercentage of people said they think
(10:40):
farmland values is gonna hold steady.
Which I think is,
Which I think is very consistent with theFederal Reserve Bank surveys and other
surveys that have taken place this year.
Yeah, good point.
We've been asking this questiongoing back to 2019, which is over
the next five years, do you think agexports are more likely to increase,
decrease, remain about the same?
And if you look at this month'sresponses, you know that this has
(11:02):
bounced around some here in, in 2025.
we've had some months when wereally saw a large percentage who
thought, exports were gonna decrease.
These last couple of months,it's been much smaller.
But we did see a shift here.
Producers were less optimistic this monthabout ag exports than they were in August.
The percentage expectingexports to grow fell.
(11:22):
The percentage expectingexports to decrease rose.
So there's a little less confidencein what's going on in the trade arena.
I'm, I'm still surprised that 47%, uh,said that they expect exports to increase
given that the environment we're in.
And so I'm a little surprised at that.
Well, and the related question is, doyou expect the increased use of tariffs
by the U.S. to strengthen or weakenthe U.S. ag economy in the long run?
(11:46):
And I think we're starting to pick upwhat you're talking about, Michael,
fewer people expected to strengthen theag economy than what we picked up when
we asked this question last spring.
Last spring, in April and May,70% of the respondents said they
thought tariffs were gonna strengthenthe ag economy in the long run.
Last, uh, in June it went down to 63%.
(12:07):
This month it's down to 51%.
So it's still a majority, but it ismarkedly different than what we were
picking up back in April and May.
And we were talking about thatthe Index of Future Expectations
was higher earlier than this year.
I think this chart herepoints to that very clearly.
I mean, in April and May, 70%thought the path we were on was gonna
strengthen the U.S. agriculture economy.
(12:27):
That's down to 51%.
Yeah.
People are losing confidence.
They're losing confidence long term.
Yeah.
This is kind of an interestingquestion we've been asking for quite
some time, and usually the resultsdon't change much from one month to
the next, but we got a little bit ofa change here these last two months.
Looking ahead to next year,what are your biggest concerns
for your farming operation?
So, no surprise, high inputcause remains the top concern
(12:49):
followed by the risk of low outputprices for crops and livestocks.
And I think it's largelybeing centered on, on crops.
But the interesting thing that showedup these last two months, and I didn't
really pick up on this last month,but it showed up again this month, and
that is this availability of inputs.
At one point, availability ofinputs had dropped all the way
(13:09):
to, I think maybe 5% of the peoplechoosing that as the top concern.
In August, it was 10%.
This month is 14%.
And that caught my eye.
That's still not a huge percentagecompared to some of the other things
we have on responses for this question.
But 14% saying availability of inputs.
That's interesting.
That was a surprise.
And, and, and that put it in third place.
(13:31):
And so that, that's, uh, it, it, itincreased enough to put it in third place.
My guess is that it's related towhat's going on with tariffs and people
are concerned about availability ofthings that we import, for example,
whether the tariffs could, uh, raisethe prices and make things hard to get
in that sense from a, from a, maybepeople choose to quit importing it.
(13:52):
Um.
So I, I think it's related to thiswhole trade question and the use
of tariffs and import restrictions.
And people remember the logisticalproblems we had back in COVID.
Maybe they're thinking back, well, maybethis is gonna cause similar disruptions.
And
Yeah, it's, it's really interestingbecause it, you know, I, well
I, these last two months, whenwe got 10% a month ago, I just
viewed that as kind of an anomaly.
(14:14):
But when it came in at 14% thismonth, I said, wait a minute.
There's something going on here.
So it'd be interesting to see what happenswith that, uh, the next couple of months
and see whether or not that continues tobe as strong as it showed up this month.
So, and then, uh, the question westarted asking back in July, and we've
asked it three times in a row now.
Uh, and again, this was onewe copied from, from, uh,
one of the consumer surveys.
(14:35):
Would you say that things in the U.S.today are generally headed in the right
direction or on the wrong track andthe results have been very consistent.
This month, 71% said right direction.
Last month it was 69%.
In July it was 74%.
So despite producer's concernsabout current conditions, we've got
a large majority of producers, therespondents saying things in the
(14:57):
U.S. are heading the right direction.
And it, my gut feel, Michael, isthat this question captures more
than what's going on in agriculture.
Yes.
Right.
Uh, but it does tell me that producersare at least so far, still on board
with the administration's policies.
Yeah.
With respect to what'sgoing on in agriculture.
I, I, I, the way I would kind, kind ofsummarize is that they're still confident
(15:21):
that the, the policy environment thenext five years is gonna be better
than it was before the election.
But I would, I would, uh, classifythat as being a little weaker, uh,
than, than it was a few months ago.
And I, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm basing thaton that question we had about whether
tariffs strengthen or weaken the economy.
Yeah.
Yeah.
When you ask.
When you drill down, you get, it wasclear there's a little less confidence.
(15:42):
When you ask this broader question,which encompasses more than just
what's going on in agricultureprobably in in the respondent's minds,
you get a more positive response.
But as long as you get responses likewe're seeing with this particular
question, that Index of FutureExpectations, it's gonna stay higher
than what it was before the election.
If this starts coming down, thenI think that Index of Future
Expectations is heading down rapidly.
(16:05):
Yeah, good point.
Well, that wraps up the highlightsfor this month's survey.
You can get the full report on thePurdue -CME Group Ag Economy Barometer
website, which is purdue.edu/agbarometer.
And of course, you can alwayssubscribe to our podcast and listen
to not only this topic, but a varietyof farm management topics on the
podcast, the Purdue Commercial AgCast.
So on behalf of the Center for CommercialAgriculture, I wanna thank my colleague,
(16:28):
Dr. Michael Langemeier for joining me.
And I'm James Mintert.
Thank you.
Welcome to Purdue Commercial icast atPurdue University Center for Commercial
Agriculture's Podcast featuring farmmanagement news and information.
I'm your host today, James Mintert,Emeritus Professor of Agricultural
Economics at Purdue University.
And joining me today is my colleague,Dr. Michael Langemeier who's the
Director of the Center for CommercialAgriculture and also Professor of
Agricultural Economics here at Purdue.
We're gonna review the results fromthe September 2025 Purdue University
(00:29):
-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Surveyof farmers from across the nation.
Each month we survey 400 farmersacross the U.S. to learn more about
their perspectives on the ag economy.
This month's Ag Barometer surveywas conducted from the 15th
through the 19th of September.
And Michael, the barometeractually rose a point to 126.
I don't think that one point changeis significant in any way, but it
(00:52):
leaves that index, 32 points lowerthan it was back in May, and that was
the index's high point so far in 2025.
And a year ago, the index wasjust 88, so it's 38 points
higher than it was a year ago.
So two contrasting things that werelower than we were back in May, but
we are still significantly higherthan we were a year ago this time.
(01:13):
What do you make of that?
Um, I, I think we're still, we're stillrelatively high after the election.
I think that's part of it.
We're also gonna talk more about this, butI think, I think one of the things that's
keeping the index up is, is livestock.
I mean, about 25 to 30% of the, ofthe survey respondents are primary
livestock producers is even a higherpercent that have livestock, and I
think that's helping keep the index up.
(01:34):
Yeah, I, I agree with that.
And we've been talking aboutthat for the last few months, and
that continues to be the case.
The Index of Current Conditionsfell seven points to 122.
That's 24 points below its peak backin May, for 2025, which was 146.
And the Future Expectation Indexactually rose a little bit, rose
five points to 128, but that'safter a 16 point drop in August.
(01:57):
The September Future Expectation Index wasdown 36 points from its 2025 peak in May.
If you look at what's taken placethere is a little bit of a surprise
here in the sense that that FutureExpectation Index rose a little bit.
Or that was unexpected, at least by me.
That was unexpected, but I think itis related to some policy questions
that we're gonna discuss here.
I think there's some, there's some policyoptimism, if you will, that's keeping
(02:21):
that, that's keeping that index up.
And I don't wanna overplay thefact that it rose five points.
Maybe the more significantnote is that it's still down
relative to where it was in July.
It makes more sense to menow that it's higher than the
Index of Current Conditions.
I think the, I think the Index of CurrentConditions are reflecting the fact
that we have really low crop prices.
Yeah.
Good point.
So, you know, it's useful to lookat some of the raw questions,
(02:43):
not just the indexes themselves.
And looking ahead, do you think it'smore likely that U.S. ag during the
next five years will have widespreadgood times or widespread bad times?
And if you look at it, the percentageof producers who expect good
times is down 15 points since May.
While the percentage expecting badtimes has climbed 12 points since May.
So it's really flipped in in a big way.
(03:05):
In fact, those two, uh, responserates are actually getting pretty darn
close to each other with 38% sayinggood times, 32% saying bad times.
And if you look at, um, the, therelated question over the next
five years are widespread goodtimes or bad times more likely for
the livestock or the crop sector.
This kind of reinforces thepoint you were making earlier.
(03:25):
People are much more optimisticabout what's gonna take place
in the livestock sector.
64%, uh, same good times for thelivestock sector and only 25% for crops.
Yeah, it's a 40 point difference.
And, and, uh, uh, we're gonna goahead and share the slides that
we're, we're talking about here today,but that, that's extremely wide.
I mean, we, we sometimesthey're similar and sometimes
(03:45):
they're like 10 points apart.
Uh, maybe 15 points apart.
But 40 points, uh, just,just huge difference.
And the way they way they thinkabout the next five years.
And you know, if you look at it on achart, that line for livestock good times
is actually trending up in a significantway over these last roughly two years.
Whereas the crop side hasbeen sideways to down.
(04:07):
Uh, and in fact, one of the lowestreadings we've gotten going back to, um.
When we started collecting datain 2015, I think the only time
it was lower was a year ago.
This time in September 24th.
Yeah.
Excellent point.
I mean, it, it, it hasn't been thislow really since, since we started
collecting data in late 2015.
Yeah, it, it's record low and so I,that tells you how dire things are.
I think for crop producers,at least in the short run.
(04:29):
If a trade war leads to lowerprices for U.S. ag products, how
likely do you think it is thatfarmers will receive compensation?
Similar to 2019's Market FacilitationProgram, which is also referred
to commonly as the MFP program.
83% of producers expect a programis similar to 2019's MFP, to
provide a backstop to farm incomes.
(04:50):
And 62% said very likely, 21% said likely.
We've asked this question before,the percentages we got back in
the spring when we asked this werepositive, but not this positive.
People are really convinced now.
Yes.
And I think there has been somediscussion about policymakers that
this is probably gonna happen, uh,whether there'll be similar, who knows?
(05:14):
Yeah.
And if you think about it though,this is one of the things that's
backstopping farmer sentiment.
Definitely.
Uh, farmer sentiment in my view, would belower than it is without this expectation
of an MFP program coming along to bailout, uh, crop producers for weak prices.
The Farm Financial PerformanceIndex fell three points in
September to a reading of 88.
(05:34):
This month's index is down 21 pointscompared to where it was in May.
And May wasn't actually the high point ofthe year, I think the high point was was,
uh, January, but May was pretty close.
But again, kind of highlighting this bigdifference in sentiment and perspective
that's taken place from May to September.
We've really seen a decline.
Yeah.
Essentially the first six months of theyear were, were, were higher, they were
(05:57):
hovering right around that a hundred.
In the last three months we've been,we've been at 90 or slightly below.
The Farm Capital Investment Indexfell eight points this month.
That's after a rise last month,so it, it kind of undid the, the
rise that took place a month ago.
The September reading is thesecond lowest reading of 2025.
January a reading of 48was low with the lowest.
(06:19):
If you look at it on a chart, theindex just kind of bounces up and
down from one month to the next.
If you look at it compared to a year ago.
That index is quite a bit stronger.
53 versus 35 a year ago.
You go back two years ago, was it 39.
Three years ago it was 31.
So it, it surprises me that we're seeingthat strong of an index for capital
(06:41):
investment relative to these last threeyears, given where we're at with, for
example, that Current Condition Index.
Yeah, this is very surprising.
I think it, it's, it went up after theelection and, and it's really stayed up.
It bounces around, but it, it stayed ata higher level, uh, like you said, than
it was the previous two to three years.
And partly what's also going on withthis question, this question's very
(07:03):
difficult to, to, to, uh, to try tofigure out whether this is driving
the Index or Current Conditions, whichis part of, or whether it's driving
the Index of Future Expectations.
I think it's driving both and we'vegot a colleague that that's doing some
research on, on, you know, lookingat the, looking at the relationship
between Farm Capital InvestmentIndex and, and the aggregate indices.
And, and I think part of whenthey answer this question, they're
(07:26):
partly thinking short term.
Is this a good time for cropproducers to, to, to buy equipment?
No.
But they're also thinkinga little longer term.
And so if you, if you're somewhatoptimistic about the policy
environment five years out, you'regonna be a little bit more optimistic
with respect to this question.
Yeah.
This is a complicated question.
It it is.
And I guess, you know, one of thethings that we've been trying to,
(07:48):
uh, look results from this, from in,in terms of interpreting it was, you
know, what's this mean for things like.
Farm machinery sales, and we've done somemodeling in that respect and, and weren't
very successful, at least initially.
Um, it's, it doesn't seem to beproviding a good indication as to
what's gonna happen with respect totractor and combine sales in particular.
Right.
At least short term.
(08:09):
Yeah.
Um, if you look at the responsesunderneath that index, uh, which is
the question, thinking about largefarm investments like buildings
and machinery, do you think now's agood time or a bad time to buy 'em?
Um, the index is, is really interestingthat the, in, although the investment
index fell this month, the percentageof producers who say it's a bad time to
invest is still well below a year ago.
(08:30):
So that kind of speaks to whatyou were talking about, this
complicated nature of the question.
And then for a long timewe were at about 10%.
Good time was about 10% fora two, three year period.
All the way from, from '21 all the wayright before the, uh, the '24 election.
And then it jumped upto that 15 to 25 range.
And so, and, and, and that's true forboth the good time but also bad time.
(08:51):
Bad time went down about 10 points andthe good time went up about 10 points.
And so there's your 20 points.
Yeah.
And it's, it's really interesting.
If you look at, again, on a chart,going back to roughly September of
'21, it's, it's moving sideways, butat a pretty low level prior to that.
Time we were operating at a littlehigher level with respect to the
percentage of people saying good time.
So there's been kind ofa shift since about '21.
(09:13):
Yeah.
Uh, the Short -Term Farmland ValueExpectation Index at 106 was six
points lower than a month earlier,and it was 18 points lower than it
was 2025 peak of 124 back in May.
And again, you look at it on achart and it looks like we've got
a clear cut downtrend underway withrespect to people losing confidence
(09:34):
in the idea that farmland valuesare gonna continue to go up.
When I received the raw data thismonth, this is one of the questions
I really wanted to get a handle onbecause, because we all know how
important farmland is to the, to thenon-current part of the balance sheet.
And, and it, it's still positive,but it's getting closer and
closer to that index of a hundred.
(09:55):
Are you gonna stick your neck out and saywhat it's gonna be at the end of the year?
I think it'll, I think it'llstay above 100, but it's gonna,
it's, it's not gonna increase.
I just can't paint a picturewhere it increases it.
It depends a little bit on thetiming of the MFP payments.
Good point.
Yeah.
Good point.
I, if you look at thetrend, it's drifting lower.
Yeah.
So if you had to guess what'sgonna happen next month, maybe
(10:17):
lose another couple of points.
Yeah.
So, um, and you know, if you look atthe real responses to the question
as you were just talking about.
Um, this month's change in theindex was really attributable to a
shift among producers choosing aboutthe same from the higher category.
So in other words, it wasn't because morepeople said farmland values are going
down, it was because people, an increasingpercentage of people said they think
(10:40):
farmland values is gonna hold steady.
Which I think is,
Which I think is very consistent with theFederal Reserve Bank surveys and other
surveys that have taken place this year.
Yeah, good point.
We've been asking this questiongoing back to 2019, which is over
the next five years, do you think agexports are more likely to increase,
decrease, remain about the same?
And if you look at this month'sresponses, you know that this has
(11:02):
bounced around some here in, in 2025.
we've had some months when wereally saw a large percentage who
thought, exports were gonna decrease.
These last couple of months,it's been much smaller.
But we did see a shift here.
Producers were less optimistic this monthabout ag exports than they were in August.
The percentage expectingexports to grow fell.
(11:22):
The percentage expectingexports to decrease rose.
So there's a little less confidencein what's going on in the trade arena.
I'm, I'm still surprised that 47%, uh,said that they expect exports to increase
given that the environment we're in.
And so I'm a little surprised at that.
Well, and the related question is, doyou expect the increased use of tariffs
by the U.S. to strengthen or weakenthe U.S. ag economy in the long run?
(11:46):
And I think we're starting to pick upwhat you're talking about, Michael,
fewer people expected to strengthen theag economy than what we picked up when
we asked this question last spring.
Last spring, in April and May,70% of the respondents said they
thought tariffs were gonna strengthenthe ag economy in the long run.
Last, uh, in June it went down to 63%.
(12:07):
This month it's down to 51%.
So it's still a majority, but it ismarkedly different than what we were
picking up back in April and May.
And we were talking about thatthe Index of Future Expectations
was higher earlier than this year.
I think this chart herepoints to that very clearly.
I mean, in April and May, 70%thought the path we were on was gonna
strengthen the U.S. agriculture economy.
(12:27):
That's down to 51%.
Yeah.
People are losing confidence.
They're losing confidence long term.
Yeah.
This is kind of an interestingquestion we've been asking for quite
some time, and usually the resultsdon't change much from one month to
the next, but we got a little bit ofa change here these last two months.
Looking ahead to next year,what are your biggest concerns
for your farming operation?
So, no surprise, high inputcause remains the top concern
(12:49):
followed by the risk of low outputprices for crops and livestocks.
And I think it's largelybeing centered on, on crops.
But the interesting thing that showedup these last two months, and I didn't
really pick up on this last month,but it showed up again this month, and
that is this availability of inputs.
At one point, availability ofinputs had dropped all the way
(13:09):
to, I think maybe 5% of the peoplechoosing that as the top concern.
In August, it was 10%.
This month is 14%.
And that caught my eye.
That's still not a huge percentagecompared to some of the other things
we have on responses for this question.
But 14% saying availability of inputs.
That's interesting.
That was a surprise.
And, and, and that put it in third place.
(13:31):
And so that, that's, uh, it, it, itincreased enough to put it in third place.
My guess is that it's related towhat's going on with tariffs and people
are concerned about availability ofthings that we import, for example,
whether the tariffs could, uh, raisethe prices and make things hard to get
in that sense from a, from a, maybepeople choose to quit importing it.
(13:52):
Um.
So I, I think it's related to thiswhole trade question and the use
of tariffs and import restrictions.
And people remember the logisticalproblems we had back in COVID.
Maybe they're thinking back, well, maybethis is gonna cause similar disruptions.
And
Yeah, it's, it's really interestingbecause it, you know, I, well
I, these last two months, whenwe got 10% a month ago, I just
viewed that as kind of an anomaly.
(14:14):
But when it came in at 14% thismonth, I said, wait a minute.
There's something going on here.
So it'd be interesting to see what happenswith that, uh, the next couple of months
and see whether or not that continues tobe as strong as it showed up this month.
So, and then, uh, the question westarted asking back in July, and we've
asked it three times in a row now.
Uh, and again, this was onewe copied from, from, uh,
one of the consumer surveys.
(14:35):
Would you say that things in the U.S.today are generally headed in the right
direction or on the wrong track andthe results have been very consistent.
This month, 71% said right direction.
Last month it was 69%.
In July it was 74%.
So despite producer's concernsabout current conditions, we've got
a large majority of producers, therespondents saying things in the
(14:57):
U.S. are heading the right direction.
And it, my gut feel, Michael, isthat this question captures more
than what's going on in agriculture.
Yes.
Right.
Uh, but it does tell me that producersare at least so far, still on board
with the administration's policies.
Yeah.
With respect to what'sgoing on in agriculture.
I, I, I, the way I would kind, kind ofsummarize is that they're still confident
(15:21):
that the, the policy environment thenext five years is gonna be better
than it was before the election.
But I would, I would, uh, classifythat as being a little weaker, uh,
than, than it was a few months ago.
And I, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm basing thaton that question we had about whether
tariffs strengthen or weaken the economy.
Yeah.
Yeah.
When you ask.
When you drill down, you get, it wasclear there's a little less confidence.
(15:42):
When you ask this broader question,which encompasses more than just
what's going on in agricultureprobably in in the respondent's minds,
you get a more positive response.
But as long as you get responses likewe're seeing with this particular
question, that Index of FutureExpectations, it's gonna stay higher
than what it was before the election.
If this starts coming down, thenI think that Index of Future
Expectations is heading down rapidly.
(16:05):
Yeah, good point.
Well, that wraps up the highlightsfor this month's survey.
You can get the full report on thePurdue -CME Group Ag Economy Barometer
website, which is purdue.edu/agbarometer.
And of course, you can alwayssubscribe to our podcast and listen
to not only this topic, but a varietyof farm management topics on the
podcast, the Purdue Commercial AgCast.
So on behalf of the Center for CommercialAgriculture, I wanna thank my colleague,
(16:28):
Dr. Michael Langemeier for joining me.
And I'm James Mintert.
Thank you.
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