April 15, 2024 • 52 mins
Join our host, Colter DeVries, and land appraiser, Andy Rahn, as they talk about the nuances of the Montana farm and ranch market. From tax day reflections to market dynamics and seller psychology, this podcast episode is a deep dive into the challenges and intricacies of buying and selling rural properties in the Big Sky Country. Tune in for a candid conversation filled with anecdotes, market analysis, and humorous observations about Montana real estate.
#MontanaRanch #MontanaRealEstate #RanchLand #RanchLifestyle
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Episode Transcript
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Andy Rahn (00:00):
That fantasy that whatever you pulled out of your
attic or basement is going to bethis home run, and don't you
think that's basically thephenomenon that sellers in
Montana have?
Colter DeVries (00:08):
I'm Colter DeVries owner of Ranch Investor
Advisory and Brokerage Services.
I'm an accredited landconsultant with the Realtor Land
Institute and proud member ofASFMRA.
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Colter DeVries (00:28):
Andy Rahn, hello , welcome back.
Thanks shoot 2024.
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I got to go.
Colter DeVries (00:44):
Go file an extension.
Yeah, right, right, that's afree loan from the government oh
, okay that's a zero interestrate loan.
Andy Rahn (00:51):
So can you just continually roll them over?
Colter DeVries (00:56):
Yeah, just, just , yeah, uh, refinance your, your
tax due, right, right,re-amortize that for me.
I'll pay it next year, I'll getyou, I'm good for it, right,
right till I die.
Then you can come aftereverything I I've bought without
paying taxes on everything Idon't have yeah, everything I've
transferred out before death.
Well, yeah, April um 2024.
(01:21):
What's going on in the ranchmarket?
Andy Rahn (01:24):
Well, I mapped for new ranches today so I've been
kind of waiting, because usuallyspring, you know, we Green up,
green on the fields, and snowin the mountains.
a ramp up, because it's cominginto ideal showing time right.
Colter DeVries (01:38):
That's what us brokers like to tell everyone.
Yeah, yeah get it signed.
Now.
Get the listing agreementsigned now.
It's best showing season comingup green grass shots yeah, I
gotta get my photography outthere waiting to see.
Andy Rahn (01:49):
You know if we're gonna see some inventory rebuild
and I mean maybe barely, but uh, still kicking around just
barely over 300 listings, it'llthe inventory will rebuild.
Colter DeVries (02:01):
As we continue to see the uh spread in bid ask
the bid price and the ask pricethe spread, the difference is
just widening.
Andy Rahn (02:11):
I have seen a lot of high price listings.
Uh, come on the market.
I'm, you know, just surprisedat the pricing yeah, and the
buyers aren't there.
Colter DeVries (02:20):
Yeah, and that's that's gonna.
That's gonna reduce theconversion factor, conversion
rate of properties leaving themarket.
So supply in the farm and ranchwill increase.
Andy Rahn (02:32):
Well, and I haven't had a chance to follow up with
these brokers and you know, notall brokers want to talk to you
about this, but just thosepricing, you know.
I just you wonder if it'sseller directed.
I mean usually is um,especially when it's really high
, you know, and it's just got to.
I mean it usually is, um,especially when it's really high
, you know, and it's just gottabe the classic.
You know, Montana land sellerthat's got their price and but
not very motivated past that.
Colter DeVries (02:54):
Oh, absolutely.
I mean I made an offer on onelisting in Eastern Montana
recently, recently, and theoffer was 50 of asking price.
We were at a just over a twocap on that.
How we came up with the valueand the property was better.
In my opinion.
(03:15):
It was better attributed as acap valuation because it was
kind of an investor typeproperty.
There's a lot to it is.
It's almost more industrialthan it was agriculture.
Um, I mean, what kind of aninvestor type property there's a
lot to it is.
It's almost more industrialthan it was agriculture.
Andy Rahn (03:27):
Um, I mean, what kind of industry?
Any timber?
lot, just a lot of pumpingcosts a lot, a lot of pumping, a
lot of irrigated farmlandgotcha and so in my opinion,
that's that plays well toinstitutional type investors.
Cash flow flow type people areyou're not going to go out there
and play cowboy on severalthousand irrigated acres?
(03:52):
When it's costing you a thousand dollars a month to
water.
Colter DeVries (03:55):
Oh, yeah, $10,000 a month, 12, 13, $14,000
a month.
So, yeah, I put a cap ratevalue on.
It came up, given what Ithought, you know, just over a
two cap, which I was, like youknow the market that this is
actually probably higher thanwhat the market requires as a
(04:18):
risk adjustment because of allthe pumping.
So really it probably shouldhave been more like a three cap.
So I thought that our you knowour price offer of 50 of asking
price was more than reasonableand we were told to pound sand
yeah, yeah, I'm.
Andy Rahn (04:36):
I'm curious actually about that.
I just recently a buddy of mineis considering making an offer
not, it's not quite as low as 50, but it's close.
And I am thinking you know why,bother and don't you run the
risk of, you know, maybe evenpissing off your seller and, you
know, is it worth making an askthat low?
I mean, you went through it.
Colter DeVries (04:59):
I mean if it's been on the market a while.
I tend to believe that, yeah,it's worth making that offer
because you're not the first guyto beat them up on price.
You never want to be the first,second or third guy to beat
them up on price.
You want to be the fourth.
Andy Rahn (05:15):
Right, right, I will say I've had brokers selling.
Brokers be a bit encouragingabout it because they want their
sellers to be beat up a littlebit, because they know they need
it, yeah, but they can't do it,or they've tried, you know and
we want you know, we give them aCMA.
Colter DeVries (05:33):
And then when the sellers say, oh no, double
it put it on the market takethat CMA, double it and put it
on the market.
You, you know, then, whenoffers come in that were our BPO
was at least a broker's priceopinion, then it's confirmation
right.
Andy Rahn (05:52):
This is what we told you and we were being factual
and forthright with you backwhen I had my license, the last
listing I had.
We only got two offers in twoyears and they were both the
exact same price and they wereboth half of what the list was.
And I remember the seller atthe kitchen table saying I just
don't understand it, I justdon't why.
(06:13):
Why that number?
Colter Devries (06:17):
Because the buyer's done their homework, and
they were.
They weren't connected, theydidn't, they didn't have access
to each other's offers.
So they were two independentoffers, exact same price, half
price, a list and the sellerjust couldn't wrap her brain
around what was going on.
Colter DeVries (06:33):
That is funny Because farm and ranch is
different than other areas ofreal estate, right, yeah, and
I've been in the position oftrying to buy a house right now,
which is not fun.
Fortunately, we have one undercontract.
But the first four offers Iwrote I was off quite a bit.
I was off 20% of the askingprice, actually, on average.
(06:56):
Yeah, I came in 20% less thanasking price and that's because
2023 was weak in residential.
Yeah, softened quite a bit andmy theory was that interest
rates are going to stay the same.
Um, inflation's not going tocontinue ticking up.
Although I'm wrong there, we'restarting to see that it is
(07:18):
ticking up again because the Billings residential market.
We're back into multiple offersituations.
I did write a full price offeron a house we really liked and
there were seven higher thanmine At full price yes,
interesting, which was a funnysituation because the listing
agent she didn't have to, butshe came back and she's a
(07:38):
coulter.
There's going to be seven moreoffers coming in and I said,
bullshit, I'm not making anoffer above asking price in this
market and we really love thehouse.
Andy Rahn (07:52):
But we found one that works well.
I'm just continually surprisedhow and I've been kind of
thinking about the, the bestlanguage on this but how
divorced sellers are from marketphenomenon.
So remember the presentation Igave that I give every year in
February, and the mostsurprising thing that I came up
(08:15):
with as I was, you know, goingthrough all my data on that was
showing that going into 20, theend of 2020, 2021, 22 which were
record-setting years in theMontana land market like I'm not
sure we'll see that again inour lifetime kind of kind of
deal there was no bump in supply.
There was no.
I mean, you know, we know thestory now.
(08:36):
We burnt, we burned throughinventory and that's where we're
still at as a you know, as adepressed inventory situation,
because we burned throughinventory but there was no bump
in the rate or the number oflistings.
No, I mean, what market doesn'thave that big of an increase in
demand and have a correspondingreaction with supply?
Colter DeVries (08:58):
However, there was all that off- market
activity.
Andy Rahn (09:01):
Yes, that's true, but uh, I still, I, still, I still
think, though it the data showsthat there's a surprising
disconnect between market forcesand and the sellers in Montana.
Oh, absolutely, I mean, I think, I mean you can comment on this
(09:21):
, surely you know.
I just think, I think when uhsellers go to market, it's
largely internal factors thatdrive that.
Families are ready.
You know, whatever, you knowwhat I mean.
Like I, it's rare, I don't know.
Have you ever heard, you know,someone say boy, you know, I've
been watching the market closelyand I, I think I you, now's the
(09:42):
time to sell.
You know, it seems like they getdivorced they get you know the
the breaking point if it's, ifwe're talking about, you know,
old multifamily ownerships thatfinally hit the market.
Usually it's some kind ofbreaking point within the family
kind of thing.
You know the offsite siblingshave had it.
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Yeah.
Andy Rahn (10:00):
Forced to sale.
Or you know mom dies or daddies and that's it, or you know
stuff like that oh, I can.
Colter DeVries (10:07):
I can relate personally.
We're kind of going throughthat right now with my family
and uh, part of the ranch and Iwas.
I was drawn up the cma and I,you know, trying to tell all my
brothers and my dad what I thinkit's worth and uh, then I got
to thinking about it as someonewho has an interest in this, I'm
a part owner of that yeah I waslike, well, bullshit, if it you
(10:30):
know, the market's telling meit's worth that, but I would
never sell it for that plus,your dad's looking at you and
he's like didn't I wipe thatkid's ass, just like yeah last
week.
Yeah, why should I take hisopinion, um, when we've got, you
know, a lot of implications ofwealth and legacy, dynasty and
(10:51):
all the years of hard work?
Andy Rahn (10:53):
On your opinion yeah, that's what I think really
comes down to.
If we're talking about, likeyour family, multi-generational
ownerships, as you know, it'sthat's the last asset or it's
accumulation.
It's about, you know, so, and Iwas going to say this earlier
like it never ceases to amaze mewhen you're talking about ag
operators because theirsophistication around markets
(11:13):
with their commodities orequipment or is like
unbelievable.
Right, I mean they are market,they could have some of these
guys could have p, should havean honorary PhD, and they do but
then land, it just all goes outthe window and you try to talk
to them about supply and demandor what the market's doing, and
they just look at you likeyou're the biggest idiot.
Colter DeVries (11:37):
Well, and going back to my experience with
residential right now is yeah,so I was writing offers at 80%
asking price and one of theagents she goes coulter.
I know that you're a farm andranch guy, that this isn't your
area of expertise, but I knowthat you guys like negotiate
(11:57):
over huge differences, millionsof dollars in a huge spread.
Bid ask, spread 40, 50.
That's not residential.
Your offer is not going to work.
You can't come in and make anoffer 80 of asking price on a
home.
Andy Rahn (12:14):
That's so funny hearing you say that a
residential broker talk, becauseI feel like don't we do that?
In the opposite, don't we uhroll our eyes about residential
brokers like they don't knowshit?
You know, they got this simplermarket and you don't understand
.
You know?
Colter DeVries (12:28):
Yeah like well, and her point was that they've
got it more dialed in.
I would I wouldn't argue withthat liquidity is quicker, I
would say, because they pricethings more accurately.
Andy Rahn (12:40):
I would call it a higher functioning market.
A better functioning marketthere's.
There's more, certainly youknow, higher volume and more
standardized product.
It's more of a commodity morecomps, yep you know, I mean land
in Montana is just doesn't fit,you know, as a commodity.
Colter DeVries (12:55):
No, no, no replacement so it's I.
Andy Rahn (12:58):
I struggle with the term market sometimes.
Sometimes I'm like I'm not, Idon't know, calling this a
market quite.
Well, you know what it remindsme of is I've been getting heavy
into Antiques Roadshow on PBS.
Is this your blow off steam?
Colter DeVries (13:27):
Is this your like?
You come home and tell the wifeand kids to shut up and drink
your your cocktail and watch it,yeah, yeah.
So since I'm a millennial, Idon't drink, because you know
that's that's the new thing ismillennials, oh yeah, yeah, are
drinking mocktails and yeah theydon't have as much sex, they
don't drink.
Andy Rahn (13:34):
What's the what's?
Yeah, yeah, it seems likethings are going downhill to me,
but what do I know?
Colter DeVries (13:43):
Do they have any fun at all you're not drinking
and having sex you guys are abunch of stick in the mud, right
, I thought it's supposed to gothe other way around yeah, so
that's.
I come home, turn on a little uh, Antiques Road show on PBS and
my wife watches the RealHousewives of Salt Lake City and
(14:05):
drinks fake wine, and I havejust the millennial dream, yeah,
and I have my uh, decaffeinatedcoffee, yep, and uh, you know
what?
The wide range of things thatcome across there from jewelry,
jewelry, art, furniture,antiques, historical relics like
Chinese, pre-era Chinesepottery All these things.
(14:32):
There is a market for them,right, right, and you do have
the appraiser who comes andgives you his opinion, but you
just don't know what it's worthuntil it goes to the auction
block.
And all of these.
What I've noticed is a lot ofwhat they feature, these pieces.
You should watch this, youshould get into some Antiques
(14:52):
Roadshow.
Andy Rahn (14:53):
You know I got to admit I have watched a little
bit of is it Pawn Stars kind?
Ad (14:58):
Of a similar deal.
Andy Rahn (14:58):
Yeah, yeah, where crazy characters come in and
demand that they sell theirpiece of crap.
Colter DeVries (15:06):
Know that their jewelry is real when it's not,
and all this stuff.
These aren't, these aren'tcrazy characters, these are
every man's on the antiquesisn't part of the appeal of that
deal.
Andy Rahn (15:13):
I mean, some of it's, some, some you know it's junk,
but it isn't the whole.
It's almost like a lotterything, right, like some yes some
funky little thing that youknow has been in your family's
attic for generations.
You pull out and turns out it'sa multi-million dollar and they
and they're surprised and yesit's like winning the lottery.
Isn't that kind of the?
Colter DeVries (15:31):
Premise of the?
Yeah, because like a side table, a federalist side table from
the 1700s.
I saw yesterday he valued at250, 000 and then they updated.
They thought that today it wasworth 600,000 and I was like for
a side table.
What did Thomas Jefferson like?
(15:51):
Sign the declaration ofindependence on this like.
Andy Rahn (15:54):
What is?
Colter DeVries (15:55):
Spill some scotch or something.
Yeah, and that's part of thething is the story behind these
pieces.
So everyone has a story and alot of times the appraiser will
say, well, you know, actuallythis is worth more.
If you can, if you can verifyand prove that story, cooperate,
if someone can do that whatyou're telling me.
Andy Rahn (16:15):
I took an appraisal course and there was an art
appraiser in there and he toldthe story about an Andy Warhol
uh print.
Uh, he was screwing around withan intern and uh, she tried to.
She tried to shoot him and thebullet went through the print
and it's not not one of his bestpieces of art but it's one of
his most valuable because ofthat story so, there, you own
(16:38):
the story.
Colter DeVries (16:40):
That's, yeah, you own the right to tell that
story.
That's like a?
Um, it's like a copyright, it'slike a, a trade secret, um,
artistic rights.
Well, that's, that's whatyou're buying.
You're not actually buying thedamn thing, right, you're?
You're buying the, uh, artisticcreation of the story behind it
(17:00):
.
Andy Rahn (17:01):
Well, now you're making me think.
You know all the listings Ilook at and map as part of
Montana land source, how uhpoorly sometimes that is
marketed.
I mean, obviously, uh, brokersare more and more leaning into
that all the time, I guess, Iwould say, and sometimes it's
just pretty eye rolly, you know,but other times I've done some
eye roll.
Yeah, I wasn't mentioning anynames but sometimes it's like
(17:24):
Whoa, you know this, this placereally does have a pretty cool
story and it's and it'spresented well and that kind of
stuff, you know.
But I mean, that's the dream,isn't that part of the dream?
The cow play cowboy dream isyou know some historical event
happened there or you knowwhatever there's there's,
there's your own piece ofhistory, you own a piece of the
West.
Colter DeVries (17:41):
Yeah, absolutely yeah, you own a piece of the
legacy there.
And then some of those storiestalk about the market.
Like Jim Espy, he sold a ranchthat was near Fort Bighorn,
which Fort Bighorn was paramountto the frontier of the west in
Montana, and John Colter carvedhis name into some sandstone on
(18:15):
that ranch.
He sold either that or Jim.
I have a funny story aboutsomething like that.
Yeah, we can get to one later.
Andy Rahn (18:22):
Like that what about the property where John Dutton
was shot?
Is that going to?
Is that going to?
Colter DeVries (18:30):
But the thing like John Colter, yeah's
historical, it's really cool,it's super unique probably not
going to influence the value allthat much.
Uh, because the the market forjohn coulter um fans is pretty
limited pretty small right?
Andy Rahn (18:51):
I bet not.
Colter DeVries (18:52):
A whole lot of them have millions of dollars in
their back pocket for a ranch,no, no, I mean well, and his
name, you know, doesn't carrythat of Lewis and Clark.
Ad (19:02):
If it was a.
Colter DeVries (19:02):
Lewis and Clark signature.
It'd be worth a lot more on theranch.
But yeah, John Colter, you knowthat's a more nuanced historian
.
History buff, Sure sure, JohnColter, you know that's a more
nuanced historian.
Uh, history buff, sure.
Sure it's a limited market,there's that.
I'm sure that aspect didn'tinfluence Jim's sale any more
than one percent, right, rightwell, and there, you know, we've
(19:25):
seen things.
Andy Rahn (19:26):
Uh, for some reason it makes me think of.
I've appraised a couple placeswith dinosaur bones and it's
like and this and the whoeveryou know I'm working for wants a
high value in these cases.
And talking up the value of thedinosaur bones, I remember I
did a project in NorthernMontana and a, a ranch with a
ton of dinosaur bones and the,the buyer bought it for the
bones, but he, he paid marketprice for it was mostly a dry
(19:49):
cropland place with a wholebunch of um bluffs, a whole
bunch of um breaks, and thebreaks especially is where the
bones were exposed.
But on, you know, the, theplateau, the tops were all
cropland and it was like I don'tknow, back back then it was
like 700 an acre, you know, 615acres, 700 an acre cropland.
That's what he bought it for.
(20:09):
Uh, so you know, like there wasno evidence in the market that
bones brought any more than yesthan wheat and and Indian
artifacts like arrowheads.
Colter DeVries (20:21):
So we're going to bring up this story.
I I had a seller who was justpumping his property to me, just
telling me you know, there usedto be Indian battles out here.
And and, uh, you gotta, yougotta put that in your brochure,
you gotta feature that there'sbeen Indian battles.
And I was like, well, okay,going back to like, uh, antiques
(20:43):
, Antiques Roadshow yeah can youverify this?
Can we?
Can someone corroborate yourstory?
Um, let's look into it, let'shave you know.
Let's, let's provide proof.
Rather than sell blue sky.
Let's not sell too much bluesky here.
Yeah, yeah and uh, he's likewell, that's your job, you gotta
look into, you, gotta find thatout.
He's like, but what I, what I'mgonna do is I'm gonna come, I'm
(21:06):
gonna put a bunch of stones ina circle, tp rings.
We could do that, right, and Iwas like I'd rather you didn't.
Now that you told me rightright don't.
Don't do that now, because I'mnot.
We're going to just drive by itand someone's going to see a
bunch of stones in a circle andI'm not going to put my
reputation by saying, yeah,those are teepee rings you know
(21:28):
it's back to the old.
Andy Rahn (21:30):
What's it called?
The rent, old, uh, AntiquesRoadshow?
Yeah, I mean that fantasy thatwhatever you pulled out of your
attic or basement is going to bethis home run.
And don't you think that'sbasically the phenomenon that
sellers in Montana have.
You know there have, even thoughthe actual number of times that
you know those kinds of thesehome runs or whatever get hit
(21:50):
are much lower than peopleactually think.
Yes, but they get out or theyget, they get exaggerated.
But so every seller thinksthey've got a Thomas Jefferson.
Yes, and you just haven't putenough ads in the Wall Street
Journal.
Is the problem?
Yeah, as the broker.
Colter DeVries (22:10):
And another thing with that uh, home run,
quote unquote I think that thatcan be normalized or it can be.
It's kind of a relative issue.
So when they think they'rehitting a home run, if they go
back and they do the compoundedannual growth rate since they
bought the ranch and say the 40sor 50s or 30, you know,
(22:33):
whenever their great grandpabought it, um, their compounded
annual growth rate might turnout to be 5%, right, right, over
the that many years.
Um, it's, it's just a big boonin their lifetime.
But over the longterm 5%, yeah,that's that's.
It exceeds the normal of 3%,right?
Andy Rahn (22:56):
Doesn't mean beat the equities market, though.
Colter DeVries (22:58):
Yeah, and, and that's why I'm saying it can be
normalized in a sense that thishome run isn't quite the home
run you think it is, cause it'sactually within a reasonable
range of time, value moneyadjusted.
Andy Rahn (23:14):
Well, it reminds me.
I've known of quite a fewproperties that, yeah, had a
really stubborn, obstinateseller and generally the market
does eventually catch.
You know, they might take 10years, or because there's
there's properties on the marketright now that have been on the
on the market for 10 years, andyou know, and then it happens
and the seller is like, see, Iheld out and I got my price.
(23:35):
But you look at the time valueof money and the opportunity
costs that they foregoed andthat and I've had this
conversation trying to getsellers to be more.
And it's funny too, right,because you know we've been in
very favorable market conditions.
You're trying to convince themto sell in a favorable market
condition for a good price andthey, you know they want to
(23:56):
fight with you and then dinkaround for years to tell they
finally get it sold.
But, yeah, the lost opportunitythey had at that time.
Colter DeVries (24:05):
Yep, which probably looks like a break even
.
Andy Rahn (24:09):
Yeah.
Colter DeVries (24:10):
Yeah, absolutely .
But in their minds I held, heldout.
I held out strong and I gotwhat I asked for.
Yeah, I can go to the coffeeshop with my head held high and
brag about.
Andy Rahn (24:20):
I got what I asked for yeah, yeah, you know I'm
flashing back to the episode youhad with dallas, the owner of
um uh ranching for profit, yes,and his comments you guys were
talking about, you know a littlebit bemoaning the loss of the
multi-generational you know uhfamily operator, but he made a
comment about how God awful, uhinefficient some of those places
(24:43):
are, and especially the onesthat sell, and that that
actually really resonated withme.
Um, and I think there'ssomething to do with that.
When it comes time to trade too, right, just not, I don't know
if efficient is the right word,but they're not approaching the
sale of it all that Analytical,yeah, I mean yeah, the old
(25:06):
generational operator runninghis ranch doesn't use KPIs.
Ad (25:11):
Yeah.
Colter DeVries (25:12):
They're not.
They're not doing balance sheetanalysis and cashflow analysis.
And then, when it comes toanalyzing that asset, yeah, um,
they're not doing that either.
Andy Rahn (25:23):
You know that reminds me of.
There used to be ever remember,Phillips uh, office supply on
main street Bozeman.
Is that too old for you?
I believe so, yeah, it was thisold and it was it, uh, you know
, closed.
Right, that was the news.
I mean, I've been there forever, downtown store, right, and I
was somewhere having you knowconversation about this.
And some guy says you mean,that place that's been trying to
(25:44):
go out of business for 20 years, like you'd go.
You'd go to buy a pencil thereand, as likely as not, the
eraser would be rock hard whenyou went to go right.
So it's like well, you bemoanwhatever a local, you know
historical place, but it's likethese, you know these places
(26:04):
gotta, if they're not efficient,if they're not, you know,
producing um food or fiber at anefficient rate, if they're not
supporting people on the place,you know yeah, why do we need to
support lifestyles?
Colter DeVries (26:19):
Why is that noble right?
Ad (26:21):
Why is?
Colter DeVries (26:21):
There more inherent value to people having
a lifestyle that they desire andthat they chose and that they
are wanting to pursuevoluntarily, on their own accord
.
Andy Rahn (26:33):
It is pretty sad when you show up in a place and the
place is pretty beat to death.
And now that I'm kind ofthinking about this and talking
about it, sometimes the peoplelook a little bit beat to death.
Colter DeVries (26:43):
Yeah, for sure.
Hey, I'm worn down and you knowit's a.
I can attest to that.
That's personal.
Andy Rahn (26:50):
Yeah, yeah.
And I mean we don't want themall to.
We want to preserve culture, wewant to preserve all that, but
there's got to be a middle.
I mean that's why the what'sthe outfit called?
Colter DeVries (27:03):
Ranch of Profit.
Andy Rahn (27:05):
Stuff like that is so great actually trying to help
people potentially make it.
Colter DeVries (27:12):
Well, we're getting into campaign season and
we have the number one senaterace in the United States.
Is that right?
Andy Rahn (27:19):
Yeah, well, I guess that's it's been.
That race has been that waymany times yep, I mean going
back to Tester and Burns.
Right, didn't Tester and Burns?
Yeah?
Colter DeVries (27:29):
First break that well, and and then and then
Danes and the former governor.
Bullock yeah so that theMontana seat has always been
viewed as a contested one toswing the Senate.
Well, not always, but in thelast 16 years, right, right,
because they viewed Montana as apurple state, which has been
(27:51):
right historically, yeah, and sonow, um, you know, we're going
to have the most funded senaterace in the nation, the highest
dollar senate race, which bringsout all the Carhartt jackets,
right American flags, guns.
Carhartt jackets uh, cowboys,farmers, John Deere tractor, yep
(28:14):
and um, one one of the issuesthat keeps coming up on.
You know both sides, they, theyspin it, they pitch it how they
want, because they they want tobe viewed as the populist right
, right that they're part of thegood yep, yep and uh, it's this
idea of protecting the familyfarmer and and uh, supporting
(28:39):
the family farmer.
And I, I see a lot of this.
I'm like you know that that'skind of bullshit to me, because
a lot of these, a lot of thesepeople, that sounds elitist with
your decaf coffee over there.
Andy Rahn (28:56):
Yeah, people are listening to this.
Colter DeVries (28:58):
Be like god it's culture or progressive in San
Francisco.
Which podcast am I on?
Um, but they one, they, theychose to be farmers and ranchers
and a lot of it is lifestyle.
They're not driven by KPIs and,like you said, efficiencies and
economies.
(29:18):
And then two, what I've seenfrom my network, my peers and
just my own experience being init, a lot of these people, it's
a trait, it's a skill set,they're good at that.
You're talking aboutpoliticians, family farmers,
family farmers yeah, familyfarmers, and they're to me.
(29:42):
I'm wondering, sitting here,wondering well, the rest of us?
We have to be adaptable, right,we have to change.
When, when our industry goes to, when my business goes to, I
have to adapt.
I have to find something elseto do, I have to pick up a new
skill, a new trade.
(30:02):
Why don't they?
Andy Rahn (30:05):
Oh yeah.
Well, it's one of the mostsubsidized industries in the
country, you know ag yeah, ohyeah absolutely, you know, you
know, yeah, speaking ofpolitical season and whatnot,
well, and of course, one of theissues is, uh, foreign ownership
of of land right.
What a bullshit issue we had thechinese balloon, you know, and
everything like that.
I, yeah, I, I feel like it'strying to put toothpaste back in
(30:25):
a tube and maybe, maybe youremember this or can correct me,
didn't.
So you know, we've been indesperate need of processing
facilities.
You know, we, we got really inthis uh zone where we're
producing, you know, all thesecalves, the world's best calves,
and shipping them to otherplaces to get processed.
We lost all our processing andthere was a multimillion dollar
big processing unit proposed formile city and it was Chinese
(30:48):
money, jdcom and the Chinese.
They came out and the stockgrowers were, were all about it.
You, you know.
Now, all of a sudden, foreignownership is like this political
issue and everybody's worked upabout it, and you know they
keep running those ads.
I'm going to stop China frombuying us farmland well, and the
the, the toothpaste out of thetube for me is, I mean, we have
(31:09):
a, we have a free market.
We don't?
We don't, I mean aside from,like you know, criminals or
something, we don't, uh, askpeople where their money comes
from.
I mean, we take money, right,so we have a free, open market,
yeah, um, but now all of asudden, you know, for political
expediency, we want to and andwe're and it's a globalized
(31:31):
society, globalized world.
Colter DeVries (31:32):
It's a complete bullshit issue.
Because one, it's not a problem, yeah.
And number two how are yougoing to limit the ccp from
buying us farmland withoutlimiting everyone else?
Well, you know who?
Andy Rahn (31:45):
Um, I actually went to a presentation that MSU put
on on this and you know who,what, what foreign well, first
of all, the biggest you know themost.
The most foreign foreign well,first of all, the biggest you
know the most the most foreignmoney is coming from Canada.
Colter DeVries (31:55):
Canada the Ontario teachers pension fund.
Andy Rahn (31:57):
Yeah, I mean the, the , the amount of bad actors China
, Venezuela, Iran, uh Iran andSouth Korea or North Korea, you
know is is minimal.
First of all, and you know whatmost of the foreign uh entities
are buying is energy, um,energy lands, lands for wind
leases and oil leases, andthat's the biggest target, is
energy.
Colter DeVries (32:19):
Yeah, why take $10 million of your sovereign
wealth and turn it into $7million?
Yeah, no, it's.
If I were.
So they're like well, theChinese bought farmland near an
air force base in north Dakota,all right, okay.
(32:40):
Well, if I was the CCP withnefarious intentions, I wouldn't
just come out as the CCP andbuy farmland.
I would would have a trust inSwitzerland that owns an LLC in
the Netherlands that owns an SCorp in Ireland that also is
part of a trust in the CaymanIslands and that trust would buy
(33:01):
the land.
So maybe you need to open up aconsulting firm.
That sounds like.
Andy Rahn (33:16):
Oh, what the hell is it called when you sell out your
own country?
Traitorism?
Colter DeVries (33:18):
Well yeah, traitor but but there there's a,
there's a legitimate term forthat when you sell out, yeah,
turncoat?
Andy Rahn (33:24):
I don't know Benedict Arnold right, right, yeah, I
find that sedition.
Colter DeVries (33:30):
Uh, maybe, yeah I didn't pay attention.
I think it's sedition.
Yeah, that sounds right,because, uh, the other the other
word I often confuse it with isuh, what the hell they?
They try to call people like meon January, insurrectionists,
insurrectionists.
Yeah, yeah, so to consult forthe CCP on buying farmland, I'd
(33:52):
be a seditionist.
Ad (33:53):
Yeah.
Colter DeVries (33:54):
Not, not, not an insurrectionist like I was in
Washington on January 6th.
Andy Rahn (34:03):
Are they coming for you?
Colter DeVries (34:03):
Next I'm going to get a knock on the door.
So I did once say I'd try tokeep this nonpolitical.
See how that went.
What else is going on since you?
Andy Rahn (34:19):
Last came.
You know it's funny.
I feel like I got to tell aBozeman story.
I had a nice across- state roadtrip.
I went to Butte, I went toMissoula.
I have family in Missoula andyou know, met with some folks
out there and had a great time,felt like just like a second
hometown out there.
I mean, I did my freshman yearof college out there and, like I
(34:39):
said, have family out there andyou know, just had one of these
trips where you just loveMontana and open road and all
that kind of stuff.
But then I come back to Bozemanand I'll remind people I lived
in Bozeman for about 17 years,up till about six years ago, and
I decided to check out the topof the armory the nine- story.
Colter DeVries (34:55):
Yeah, I went and had a drink up there.
Andy Rahn (34:57):
Yeah, I was going to have a drink at the armory
non-alcoholic of course ofboredom or loneliness, until I
sat at the top of the armory andhad an $18 old fashioned and uh
was treated with almostcomplete uh disinterest and
(35:18):
disdain from the Uber hotbartender.
Yeah, it's, it's a whole otherculture, isn't it?
Yeah, and you know, like I said, I I lived there for 17 years.
You know I think I'd have somesome uh clout.
Yeah, do you know who I am?
You need to go to the AmericanEagle for that.
Yeah, it was funny.
I was telling some friends,complaining to friends about it,
and they were like well,obviously you went to the wrong
(35:38):
place.
The hop is still still therefor you buddy yeah, the legion.
Well, it was funny because Istepped foot in the Rhino at
Missoula and I didn't even tendto stop, didn't even tend to
have a drink, and three hoursI'm chatting up with the whole
bar.
Everybody knows somebody, thatknows somebody.
You know, classic old Montana.
Colter DeVries (35:54):
The Rhino was the bar I went to when I went to
school there in Missoula.
Yeah, yeah, well, geez.
So now we're talking aboutthese cultural differences.
Coming to Montana, I did go to.
I stopped through Missoula theother day too and went to a
coffee shop where the coffeestirrers were pasta sticks more
(36:16):
sustainable.
Oh, yeah, yeah.
And then I went into thebathroom.
They had a list of local eventsand only in Missoula, in the
men's, or it wasn't a men'sbathroom, it was women's.
Either it was either, eithereither anything were you
confused or you was it.
Ad (36:35):
I was a little scared to go in like am I gonna look like a
pedo if?
I get this wrong.
Colter DeVries (36:42):
What's the answer here?
I don't know what these signsare, um, but yeah, on on the
bathroom wall was uh anadvertisement for West African
dance classes in Missoula,Montana and.
Ad (36:55):
I was like boy that is.
Colter DeVries (36:57):
That is very different than, uh, what I see
in Ekalaka, Montana.
Andy Rahn (37:01):
Yeah, you know I was.
I spent quite a bit of timejust walking around downtown
Missoula cause I hadn't been ina while, and I definitely saw
some of the same Bozeman typestuff.
You know, high-end shops andshiny people and stuff.
But you know, uh, I think Ifeel like Missoula is still
putting up something of a fight.
You know it's just it's theliberal, for maybe people that
don't know out of state it's.
(37:22):
It's where the liberal artsschool is, University of Montana
, so it's always been the hippiecapital of Montana, you know,
for a long time.
And, uh, social consciousnesshas been, or whatever social
justice, yeah, right, that'sbeen its deal.
Uh, and I've been in Missoula,like I feel like it's at least
putting up a fight, it's atleast pushing back, whereas
Bozeman is just completelyfolded yeah Bozeman is just like
(37:45):
well, in downtown Bozeman,which has often been celebrated
as a great, you know, evenhistoric, you know, down in
Montana downtown, at this pointit's almost all shopping and not
for locals, you know high- endshops and all this kind of stuff
.
I mean there's, there's theholdout Ace Hardware and a
couple of bars and stuff.
Colter DeVries (38:01):
But you know, yeah, and that whole.
They are elitist.
Wow, that was a broadgeneralization.
That's rich, coming from anelitist and wow, that was a
broad generalization that's richcoming from an elitist, well,
and I was gonna say who am I tocast a stone when I'm like you
guys aren't Montanans.
Right right, Bozeman is 20miles from montana yeah, yeah
that sounds a little snobby andelitist.
Andy Rahn (38:23):
Well, you know, although and I mean this is
honestly what pushed me out I, Ilove Bozeman.
I probably at one point thoughtI might stay there forever and
I don't think it's acharacterization of the people
that have moved in, I think it'sa factor of volume.
It's just been inundated.
You know, it's just communityphrase.
You just don't recognize peopleon the street and all that kind
(38:44):
of stuff, and I think, with theexception of, maybe, Whitefish,
you know, those two communitiesare the only, you know, our
communities in Montana that arecompletely transformed, I mean
almost unrecognizable from whatthey were a generation ago.
Like I'm saying about Missoula,it's putting up, it's still
kind of trying.
It's trying to navigate thosewaters of new types, new level
(39:05):
of wealth you know, all thatkind of stuff.
But, and you know towns likeLivingston and there's a number
of them, you know, but I ofstuff but uh, and you know towns
like Livingston and there's anumber of them, you know, but I
think Bozeman and maybeWhitefish are just completely.
Colter DeVries (39:16):
They're unrecognizable yeah, Bozeman did
elect a uh, a young socialistmayor.
Yeah right, I mean that, that'spretty wild.
Andy Rahn (39:25):
Yeah, I mean Bozeman used to be cow tech, yeah town
yeah, yeah, it's changing, butwe we've got to adapt right
right, right, but places likeyou know Billings has this just
slow and steady growth rate thatnever changes, no matter what
you know and look at the amountof new units, homes and shit
(39:51):
going up in buildings and, yeah,commercial like man we've.
Colter DeVries (39:55):
What is the new numbers?
We've grown population probably20 in the last five years I
don't think it's that as thathigh but but it's huge.
Andy Rahn (40:05):
Yeah, it's not 20 it's a big change yeah, so I
wanted to bring this up.
Uh, you know, talking about thelandmark and stuff, and in
inventory, you know it's beenspeculated, uh, whether or not
there might be a secondarymarket.
All the people that moved herein such a haste, um, you know a
couple winners.
(40:26):
Of course we haven't had anybrutal winners to speak of, but
yeah you know that.
You know making coming with, notwith, some haste, you know, is
there going to be a fall outwithin a few years of people not
being quite what they expected,and is that going to create a
secondary market, almost yourattrition washout.
Colter DeVries (40:46):
Yeah, the people I run into like at the gym who
moved here.
Some of these are COVIDrefugees.
Yeah, and they love it.
Ad (41:00):
They love Billings.
Colter DeVries (41:02):
And they had no connection.
It was a cold move.
It's hard to sustain, right, ifyou don't have family or an
employer.
Right, especially for amillennial with kids, like if
you don't have mom and dadaround, grandma and grandpa.
Raising kids is pretty freakinghard, right.
And so for some of these peopletheir cold move has lasted.
(41:23):
And and another one is likepeople in my daughter's
Montessori, dude they love it.
Elitist, liberal elite.
Andy Rahn (41:34):
That's what's going on here.
Colter DeVries (41:36):
Anti-public schools.
Ad (41:37):
Yeah.
Colter DeVries (41:42):
Yeah, they seem like they're here to stay.
Andy Rahn (41:44):
Well, another demographic that I can speak to
and I'm kind of one of them ispeople moving back home.
That never thought they woulddo that, maybe here, you know,
if you asked them 20 years ago,you know they'd be like, oh
Christ, no you know.
But uh, you know, it's part ofit's an age thing.
I think that's probably prettynatural, you know, as you get to
a certain age, like, oh,hometown doesn't look so bad and
(42:06):
maybe and I'm talking as a genextra right, older generation
parents are aging.
Oh, gotta be closer to mom anddad, that's aging out.
But I also think there's acultural change and I think
about even really small towns.
In Montana, I mean, everylittle town in Montana has a
groovy coffee shop and a breweryand uh, you know what I mean.
(42:26):
Totally so like people thatwhen Harlow has a brewery, yeah,
yeah.
So especially small- townMontana, and people that were
kind of like you know, I'm outof here, type deal, never
looking back then, and maybethey've gone somewhere and
gotten beat up in the big cityfor a while and they're just
like you know, home doesn'tsound so bad and there's
cultural amenities that I wasreally missing.
(42:47):
I mean part of why I fled.
But now you know the, the, thebrewery has a guy strumming
guitar you know every Friday,Saturday night in the corner.
Colter DeVries (42:55):
So it's like, oh , I got some the map of uh sex
offenders is far more spark,sparsely populated.
Andy Rahn (43:06):
And I wasn't so hardcore that I, like you know,
I'll never come back to Billingskind of thing.
But um, yeah, you know, andit's like this place looks
pretty darn good compared to alot of other places.
Colter DeVries (43:18):
I'd noticed that , like you know, about 10 years
ago when the boomers startedretiring and moving back to the
boomers who went off and madetheir careers elsewhere and then
came back to well, my home area, carbon county like I loved
seeing that.
They came back and got on themuseum board and the cemetery
board and got involved.
(43:38):
And one guy who we're going tohave on the podcast he like a
phd toxicologist so he knowsstatistics, he knows research
very well, he has been testingRock Creek and he's put together
a study that shows that all thedevelopment happening in the
Rock Creek valley, with septicsystems and drain fields, is
(44:02):
causing higher nitrogen levelsin Rock Creek.
And that's all volunteer workon his own time.
He's a retired boomer and likedude, that's what we need.
We need talent like that comingback with the time right.
And I love seeing that becauseat the same time you get these
people on these boards for like,uh, cattlemen's groups and farm
(44:24):
groups and they're like, oh,you young people, you got to get
involved and it's like we gotto raise some damn kids here.
We got to establish our careers.
Andy Rahn (44:33):
You got it.
We got to pay for your socialsecurity fund do you want to
work till you're 85, right?
Colter DeVries (44:41):
Uh no, you guys go to the community meetings and
sit on those boards andcommittees and that shit.
Because we have, we, we've, wehave constraints, right.
So it's good to see the boomerscoming back and applying their
talents and their time.
Andy Rahn (44:56):
Yeah, yeah, you mentioning Rock Creek made me
think of the floods a couple ofyears ago and, uh, spent a fair
amount of time on the river thatsummer, you know, after the
floods were gone and it was.
It was amazing because thelower Yellowstone, which is
usually pretty brown, was prettyclean, right, flushed out, you
know, except for the occasionalrefrigerator or washing machine
floating by.
Colter DeVries (45:19):
See, and that's why people love it here is
because it's a fridge and not adead body.
Andy Rahn (45:23):
Yeah, yeah, that might be coming.
Yeah, that might be coming.
Colter DeVries (45:36):
Oh well, 45 minutes in any, any, uh any
market analysis.
Some numbers, data, statisticsto bring up.
Andy Rahn (45:42):
Let me see, let me pull up, let me pull up this
handy website, Montana LandSource that's got live market
statistics.
Yeah, I mean, you know, like Italked about earlier, just
waiting for inventory to rebuild, but I mean we've got 50% less
new listings so far in 2024 than2023.
Wow, that's a surprise, I know,but I mean inventory.
(46:06):
While I say creeping up, Iguess that's not really true, I
mean just barely so still seeingshorter days on market number
of sales is up from last yearslightly.
You know, I just think we're.
I just keep thinking.
I've been criticized for usingthis word recovery because most
people think recovery is from abad time, not from a good time.
(46:31):
But as an appraiser, you know Isee extremes on either side is
kind of the same they're, youknow, they're disruptive markets
and unreal markets.
So I'm not bothered by the termrecovery, but I just get the
sense that it's kind of a letthings sort out, let the let the
let things sort out.
Colter DeVries (46:53):
Let the let the take years.
Yeah, it's going to take yearsto normalize back to 2019
activity, right levels and rightmetrics.
Andy Rahn (46:58):
But you know there's still demand is still strong.
From what I hear from from allthe brokers.
They all talk about, you know,having buyers that just haven't
found the right place and thatkind of stuff low it's all due
to low inventory can't find whatyou want.
Colter DeVries (47:10):
The salesmen are telling you that demand is
strong, yeah grain of saltthat's like, uh, this, this
other property I was workingwith on a buyer right now
actually, and again, we on thisother one, we're at 50, our
evaluation versus asking price.
We're, we're 50 from where,where they are at.
(47:33):
And the listing agent keepstelling us oh he's, he's really
motivated, he wants to sell thisranch, he's got another one in
mind, he, he wants to get movedto that other one.
And I'm I'm like, yeah, he'smotivated, at his price.
Yeah, exactly right.
Andy Rahn (47:51):
Exactly right, aren't we all?
Well, you know one thing I'vealways embraced as an appraiser.
I love the concept, so likewhen I write an appraisal, you
know I'm not I am not anadvocate, I'm not supposed to be
an advocate.
If anything, I'm an advocatefor the market and I've always
I've always liked that, wantedto lean in to that.
(48:12):
So I think I always have someoptimism when we get through
extremes and kind of come backto normalcy, that that normal
market factors will.
But it's always fleeting.
Colter DeVries (48:21):
There's one thing I kind of take from all of
this is that I don't thinkfarmer ranch is knee jerk.
It's not volatile.
I don't think farmer ranch isknee jerk.
It's not volatile.
Didn't move a lot, as you, yourdata shows, wasn't?
A lot of people are rushing tosell when times were good.
Andy Rahn (48:38):
Well, here's an interesting.
I've actually this is remindingme, I've kind of been working
on a blog along these linesAgain, just talking about the
Montana land market, and onething that occurred to me the
Montana land market is just,it's so as a highly imperfect
market we talked about thatearlier.
Just, you know, it's anon-disclosure state, there's
not a lot of price discovery,it's not a commodity with
(48:59):
similarity, you know, betweenproducts, but so it's a highly
imperfect market.
But it is a very free market.
You know, when I got thinkingabout it, we have very little,
we have very little outsideinfluences.
I mean, you know, there's alittle bit of government program
for new, but I mean almost nonefor, like, beginning farmers or
something like that right,there's significant.
I mean.
So you know when things do sell, when, when, when properties
(49:23):
are bought, it is a free marketand, uh, some people wanted to
dispute that or fuss with that.
If it's, you know, wealthyout-of-staters or conservation
organizations or that kind ofstuff, they you know.
But the reality is those arewilling buyers, willing sellers.
We actually have a very freemarket in Montana, unless you're
the CCP called Colter DeVries.
Colter DeVries (49:53):
Um yeah, I don't have any other thought.
I don't have any other thoughtsaround.
Andy Rahn (49:56):
That it's kind of a quiet time.
Yeah, quiet, quiet time in themarket I would.
Colter DeVries (50:02):
I think it's just tough to get anything done
because the the bid ask spread,it's too wide, there's, there's,
and there's no reason forsellers to sober up.
They don't have to sell.
There's not high debt there'sno liquidity crisis right.
They've been on it for 30 years.
They know that there's noreason to Montana, land sellers
(50:24):
are remarkably strong.
Andy Rahn (50:26):
I mean they tend.
They tend to be mean.
Occasionally you see familiesthat are, you know, in trouble
or that kind of stuff.
It's pretty rare actually.
I mean, they're usually pretty.
We'll wait this sucker out asneeded you know, whatever it
takes.
Colter DeVries (50:39):
Yeah, and I don't.
I don't see that changing.
I like I said, I think a lot ofthese places I'm looking at
with these buyers, um, I'm I'mabout 40% off in my CMA from
where they're asking and it'sjust hard to bridge that gap and
it probably won't get bridged.
These deals won't get done.
Andy Rahn (50:58):
I got a call the other day about the market and I
was kind of talking about allthe I don't want to say negative
factors, but just the thingswe're talking about, that you
know, inventory is down andvolume I was telling the volume
story volumes way down, and youknow all this kind of stuff.
And he says, oh, great, thatmeans, does that mean there's
deals to be had?
I busted out, laughing a littlebit.
(51:19):
Well, it was just interestingbecause, as I rewound what I
just been saying in any othercontext, that be the natural
conclusion, right, like, oh, youknow, clearly, you know, in a,
in a, in a, in a more normal,more rational, more functioning
market.
That would be the result.
Colter DeVries (51:38):
Yeah, but we just our market does not play by
the same rules I've got allthese watermelons that are about
to, about to go rotten, right,right right.
Andy Rahn (51:50):
Yeah, yeah, it's a durable product.
I guess that's part of ourissue too.
Colter DeVries (51:54):
Yep.
Well, thanks for coming on.
Yeah, it's been good, good tobe back here.
Thanks for inviting me.
You're on Montana Land Source.
Andy Rahn (52:00):
Yep.
Check out mtlandsource.
com live market stats and everylisting on the market 200 acres
and up is mapped and availableon our map app.
Colter DeVries (52:09):
And thanks for tuning into the ranch investor
podcast.
Ad (52:12):
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That fantasy that whatever you pulled out of your
attic or basement is going to bethis home run, and don't you
think that's basically thephenomenon that sellers in
Montana have?
Colter DeVries (00:08):
I'm Colter DeVries owner of Ranch Investor
Advisory and Brokerage Services.
I'm an accredited landconsultant with the Realtor Land
Institute and proud member ofASFMRA.
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entertains.
Colter DeVries (00:28):
Andy Rahn, hello , welcome back.
Thanks shoot 2024.
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I got to go.
Colter DeVries (00:44):
Go file an extension.
Yeah, right, right, that's afree loan from the government oh
, okay that's a zero interestrate loan.
Andy Rahn (00:51):
So can you just continually roll them over?
Colter DeVries (00:56):
Yeah, just, just , yeah, uh, refinance your, your
tax due, right, right,re-amortize that for me.
I'll pay it next year, I'll getyou, I'm good for it, right,
right till I die.
Then you can come aftereverything I I've bought without
paying taxes on everything Idon't have yeah, everything I've
transferred out before death.
Well, yeah, April um 2024.
(01:21):
What's going on in the ranchmarket?
Andy Rahn (01:24):
Well, I mapped for new ranches today so I've been
kind of waiting, because usuallyspring, you know, we Green up,
green on the fields, and snowin the mountains.
a ramp up, because it's cominginto ideal showing time right.
Colter DeVries (01:38):
That's what us brokers like to tell everyone.
Yeah, yeah get it signed.
Now.
Get the listing agreementsigned now.
It's best showing season comingup green grass shots yeah, I
gotta get my photography outthere waiting to see.
Andy Rahn (01:49):
You know if we're gonna see some inventory rebuild
and I mean maybe barely, but uh, still kicking around just
barely over 300 listings, it'llthe inventory will rebuild.
Colter DeVries (02:01):
As we continue to see the uh spread in bid ask
the bid price and the ask pricethe spread, the difference is
just widening.
Andy Rahn (02:11):
I have seen a lot of high price listings.
Uh, come on the market.
I'm, you know, just surprisedat the pricing yeah, and the
buyers aren't there.
Colter DeVries (02:20):
Yeah, and that's that's gonna.
That's gonna reduce theconversion factor, conversion
rate of properties leaving themarket.
So supply in the farm and ranchwill increase.
Andy Rahn (02:32):
Well, and I haven't had a chance to follow up with
these brokers and you know, notall brokers want to talk to you
about this, but just thosepricing, you know.
I just you wonder if it'sseller directed.
I mean usually is um,especially when it's really high
, you know, and it's just got to.
I mean it usually is, um,especially when it's really high
, you know, and it's just gottabe the classic.
You know, Montana land sellerthat's got their price and but
not very motivated past that.
Colter DeVries (02:54):
Oh, absolutely.
I mean I made an offer on onelisting in Eastern Montana
recently, recently, and theoffer was 50 of asking price.
We were at a just over a twocap on that.
How we came up with the valueand the property was better.
In my opinion.
(03:15):
It was better attributed as acap valuation because it was
kind of an investor typeproperty.
There's a lot to it is.
It's almost more industrialthan it was agriculture.
Um, I mean, what kind of aninvestor type property there's a
lot to it is.
It's almost more industrialthan it was agriculture.
Andy Rahn (03:27):
Um, I mean, what kind of industry?
Any timber?
lot, just a lot of pumpingcosts a lot, a lot of pumping, a
lot of irrigated farmlandgotcha and so in my opinion,
that's that plays well toinstitutional type investors.
Cash flow flow type people areyou're not going to go out there
and play cowboy on severalthousand irrigated acres?
(03:52):
When it's costing you a thousand dollars a month to
water.
Colter DeVries (03:55):
Oh, yeah, $10,000 a month, 12, 13, $14,000
a month.
So, yeah, I put a cap ratevalue on.
It came up, given what Ithought, you know, just over a
two cap, which I was, like youknow the market that this is
actually probably higher thanwhat the market requires as a
(04:18):
risk adjustment because of allthe pumping.
So really it probably shouldhave been more like a three cap.
So I thought that our you knowour price offer of 50 of asking
price was more than reasonableand we were told to pound sand
yeah, yeah, I'm.
Andy Rahn (04:36):
I'm curious actually about that.
I just recently a buddy of mineis considering making an offer
not, it's not quite as low as 50, but it's close.
And I am thinking you know why,bother and don't you run the
risk of, you know, maybe evenpissing off your seller and, you
know, is it worth making an askthat low?
I mean, you went through it.
Colter DeVries (04:59):
I mean if it's been on the market a while.
I tend to believe that, yeah,it's worth making that offer
because you're not the first guyto beat them up on price.
You never want to be the first,second or third guy to beat
them up on price.
You want to be the fourth.
Andy Rahn (05:15):
Right, right, I will say I've had brokers selling.
Brokers be a bit encouragingabout it because they want their
sellers to be beat up a littlebit, because they know they need
it, yeah, but they can't do it,or they've tried, you know and
we want you know, we give them aCMA.
Colter DeVries (05:33):
And then when the sellers say, oh no, double
it put it on the market takethat CMA, double it and put it
on the market.
You, you know, then, whenoffers come in that were our BPO
was at least a broker's priceopinion, then it's confirmation
right.
Andy Rahn (05:52):
This is what we told you and we were being factual
and forthright with you backwhen I had my license, the last
listing I had.
We only got two offers in twoyears and they were both the
exact same price and they wereboth half of what the list was.
And I remember the seller atthe kitchen table saying I just
don't understand it, I justdon't why.
(06:13):
Why that number?
Colter Devries (06:17):
Because the buyer's done their homework, and
they were.
They weren't connected, theydidn't, they didn't have access
to each other's offers.
So they were two independentoffers, exact same price, half
price, a list and the sellerjust couldn't wrap her brain
around what was going on.
Colter DeVries (06:33):
That is funny Because farm and ranch is
different than other areas ofreal estate, right, yeah, and
I've been in the position oftrying to buy a house right now,
which is not fun.
Fortunately, we have one undercontract.
But the first four offers Iwrote I was off quite a bit.
I was off 20% of the askingprice, actually, on average.
(06:56):
Yeah, I came in 20% less thanasking price and that's because
2023 was weak in residential.
Yeah, softened quite a bit andmy theory was that interest
rates are going to stay the same.
Um, inflation's not going tocontinue ticking up.
Although I'm wrong there, we'restarting to see that it is
(07:18):
ticking up again because the Billings residential market.
We're back into multiple offersituations.
I did write a full price offeron a house we really liked and
there were seven higher thanmine At full price yes,
interesting, which was a funnysituation because the listing
agent she didn't have to, butshe came back and she's a
(07:38):
coulter.
There's going to be seven moreoffers coming in and I said,
bullshit, I'm not making anoffer above asking price in this
market and we really love thehouse.
Andy Rahn (07:52):
But we found one that works well.
I'm just continually surprisedhow and I've been kind of
thinking about the, the bestlanguage on this but how
divorced sellers are from marketphenomenon.
So remember the presentation Igave that I give every year in
February, and the mostsurprising thing that I came up
(08:15):
with as I was, you know, goingthrough all my data on that was
showing that going into 20, theend of 2020, 2021, 22 which were
record-setting years in theMontana land market like I'm not
sure we'll see that again inour lifetime kind of kind of
deal there was no bump in supply.
There was no.
I mean, you know, we know thestory now.
(08:36):
We burnt, we burned throughinventory and that's where we're
still at as a you know, as adepressed inventory situation,
because we burned throughinventory but there was no bump
in the rate or the number oflistings.
No, I mean, what market doesn'thave that big of an increase in
demand and have a correspondingreaction with supply?
Colter DeVries (08:58):
However, there was all that off- market
activity.
Andy Rahn (09:01):
Yes, that's true, but uh, I still, I, still, I still
think, though it the data showsthat there's a surprising
disconnect between market forcesand and the sellers in Montana.
Oh, absolutely, I mean, I think, I mean you can comment on this
(09:21):
, surely you know.
I just think, I think when uhsellers go to market, it's
largely internal factors thatdrive that.
Families are ready.
You know, whatever, you knowwhat I mean.
Like I, it's rare, I don't know.
Have you ever heard, you know,someone say boy, you know, I've
been watching the market closelyand I, I think I you, now's the
(09:42):
time to sell.
You know, it seems like they getdivorced they get you know the
the breaking point if it's, ifwe're talking about, you know,
old multifamily ownerships thatfinally hit the market.
Usually it's some kind ofbreaking point within the family
kind of thing.
You know the offsite siblingshave had it.
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Yeah.
Andy Rahn (10:00):
Forced to sale.
Or you know mom dies or daddies and that's it, or you know
stuff like that oh, I can.
Colter DeVries (10:07):
I can relate personally.
We're kind of going throughthat right now with my family
and uh, part of the ranch and Iwas.
I was drawn up the cma and I,you know, trying to tell all my
brothers and my dad what I thinkit's worth and uh, then I got
to thinking about it as someonewho has an interest in this, I'm
a part owner of that yeah I waslike, well, bullshit, if it you
(10:30):
know, the market's telling meit's worth that, but I would
never sell it for that plus,your dad's looking at you and
he's like didn't I wipe thatkid's ass, just like yeah last
week.
Yeah, why should I take hisopinion, um, when we've got, you
know, a lot of implications ofwealth and legacy, dynasty and
(10:51):
all the years of hard work?
Andy Rahn (10:53):
On your opinion yeah, that's what I think really
comes down to.
If we're talking about, likeyour family, multi-generational
ownerships, as you know, it'sthat's the last asset or it's
accumulation.
It's about, you know, so, and Iwas going to say this earlier
like it never ceases to amaze mewhen you're talking about ag
operators because theirsophistication around markets
(11:13):
with their commodities orequipment or is like
unbelievable.
Right, I mean they are market,they could have some of these
guys could have p, should havean honorary PhD, and they do but
then land, it just all goes outthe window and you try to talk
to them about supply and demandor what the market's doing, and
they just look at you likeyou're the biggest idiot.
Colter DeVries (11:37):
Well, and going back to my experience with
residential right now is yeah,so I was writing offers at 80%
asking price and one of theagents she goes coulter.
I know that you're a farm andranch guy, that this isn't your
area of expertise, but I knowthat you guys like negotiate
(11:57):
over huge differences, millionsof dollars in a huge spread.
Bid ask, spread 40, 50.
That's not residential.
Your offer is not going to work.
You can't come in and make anoffer 80 of asking price on a
home.
Andy Rahn (12:14):
That's so funny hearing you say that a
residential broker talk, becauseI feel like don't we do that?
In the opposite, don't we uhroll our eyes about residential
brokers like they don't knowshit?
You know, they got this simplermarket and you don't understand
.
You know?
Colter DeVries (12:28):
Yeah like well, and her point was that they've
got it more dialed in.
I would I wouldn't argue withthat liquidity is quicker, I
would say, because they pricethings more accurately.
Andy Rahn (12:40):
I would call it a higher functioning market.
A better functioning marketthere's.
There's more, certainly youknow, higher volume and more
standardized product.
It's more of a commodity morecomps, yep you know, I mean land
in Montana is just doesn't fit,you know, as a commodity.
Colter DeVries (12:55):
No, no, no replacement so it's I.
Andy Rahn (12:58):
I struggle with the term market sometimes.
Sometimes I'm like I'm not, Idon't know, calling this a
market quite.
Well, you know what it remindsme of is I've been getting heavy
into Antiques Roadshow on PBS.
Is this your blow off steam?
Colter DeVries (13:27):
Is this your like?
You come home and tell the wifeand kids to shut up and drink
your your cocktail and watch it,yeah, yeah.
So since I'm a millennial, Idon't drink, because you know
that's that's the new thing ismillennials, oh yeah, yeah, are
drinking mocktails and yeah theydon't have as much sex, they
don't drink.
Andy Rahn (13:34):
What's the what's?
Yeah, yeah, it seems likethings are going downhill to me,
but what do I know?
Colter DeVries (13:43):
Do they have any fun at all you're not drinking
and having sex you guys are abunch of stick in the mud, right
, I thought it's supposed to gothe other way around yeah, so
that's.
I come home, turn on a little uh, Antiques Road show on PBS and
my wife watches the RealHousewives of Salt Lake City and
(14:05):
drinks fake wine, and I havejust the millennial dream, yeah,
and I have my uh, decaffeinatedcoffee, yep, and uh, you know
what?
The wide range of things thatcome across there from jewelry,
jewelry, art, furniture,antiques, historical relics like
Chinese, pre-era Chinesepottery All these things.
(14:32):
There is a market for them,right, right, and you do have
the appraiser who comes andgives you his opinion, but you
just don't know what it's worthuntil it goes to the auction
block.
And all of these.
What I've noticed is a lot ofwhat they feature, these pieces.
You should watch this, youshould get into some Antiques
(14:52):
Roadshow.
Andy Rahn (14:53):
You know I got to admit I have watched a little
bit of is it Pawn Stars kind?
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Of a similar deal.
Andy Rahn (14:58):
Yeah, yeah, where crazy characters come in and
demand that they sell theirpiece of crap.
Colter DeVries (15:06):
Know that their jewelry is real when it's not,
and all this stuff.
These aren't, these aren'tcrazy characters, these are
every man's on the antiquesisn't part of the appeal of that
deal.
Andy Rahn (15:13):
I mean, some of it's, some, some you know it's junk,
but it isn't the whole.
It's almost like a lotterything, right, like some yes some
funky little thing that youknow has been in your family's
attic for generations.
You pull out and turns out it'sa multi-million dollar and they
and they're surprised and yesit's like winning the lottery.
Isn't that kind of the?
Colter DeVries (15:31):
Premise of the?
Yeah, because like a side table, a federalist side table from
the 1700s.
I saw yesterday he valued at250, 000 and then they updated.
They thought that today it wasworth 600,000 and I was like for
a side table.
What did Thomas Jefferson like?
(15:51):
Sign the declaration ofindependence on this like.
Andy Rahn (15:54):
What is?
Colter DeVries (15:55):
Spill some scotch or something.
Yeah, and that's part of thething is the story behind these
pieces.
So everyone has a story and alot of times the appraiser will
say, well, you know, actuallythis is worth more.
If you can, if you can verifyand prove that story, cooperate,
if someone can do that whatyou're telling me.
Andy Rahn (16:15):
I took an appraisal course and there was an art
appraiser in there and he toldthe story about an Andy Warhol
uh print.
Uh, he was screwing around withan intern and uh, she tried to.
She tried to shoot him and thebullet went through the print
and it's not not one of his bestpieces of art but it's one of
his most valuable because ofthat story so, there, you own
(16:38):
the story.
Colter DeVries (16:40):
That's, yeah, you own the right to tell that
story.
That's like a?
Um, it's like a copyright, it'slike a, a trade secret, um,
artistic rights.
Well, that's, that's whatyou're buying.
You're not actually buying thedamn thing, right, you're?
You're buying the, uh, artisticcreation of the story behind it
(17:00):
.
Andy Rahn (17:01):
Well, now you're making me think.
You know all the listings Ilook at and map as part of
Montana land source, how uhpoorly sometimes that is
marketed.
I mean, obviously, uh, brokersare more and more leaning into
that all the time, I guess, Iwould say, and sometimes it's
just pretty eye rolly, you know,but other times I've done some
eye roll.
Yeah, I wasn't mentioning anynames but sometimes it's like
(17:24):
Whoa, you know this, this placereally does have a pretty cool
story and it's and it'spresented well and that kind of
stuff, you know.
But I mean, that's the dream,isn't that part of the dream?
The cow play cowboy dream isyou know some historical event
happened there or you knowwhatever there's there's,
there's your own piece ofhistory, you own a piece of the
West.
Colter DeVries (17:41):
Yeah, absolutely yeah, you own a piece of the
legacy there.
And then some of those storiestalk about the market.
Like Jim Espy, he sold a ranchthat was near Fort Bighorn,
which Fort Bighorn was paramountto the frontier of the west in
Montana, and John Colter carvedhis name into some sandstone on
(18:15):
that ranch.
He sold either that or Jim.
I have a funny story aboutsomething like that.
Yeah, we can get to one later.
Andy Rahn (18:22):
Like that what about the property where John Dutton
was shot?
Is that going to?
Is that going to?
Colter DeVries (18:30):
But the thing like John Colter, yeah's
historical, it's really cool,it's super unique probably not
going to influence the value allthat much.
Uh, because the the market forjohn coulter um fans is pretty
limited pretty small right?
Andy Rahn (18:51):
I bet not.
Colter DeVries (18:52):
A whole lot of them have millions of dollars in
their back pocket for a ranch,no, no, I mean well, and his
name, you know, doesn't carrythat of Lewis and Clark.
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If it was a.
Colter DeVries (19:02):
Lewis and Clark signature.
It'd be worth a lot more on theranch.
But yeah, John Colter, you knowthat's a more nuanced historian
.
History buff, Sure sure, JohnColter, you know that's a more
nuanced historian.
Uh, history buff, sure.
Sure it's a limited market,there's that.
I'm sure that aspect didn'tinfluence Jim's sale any more
than one percent, right, rightwell, and there, you know, we've
(19:25):
seen things.
Andy Rahn (19:26):
Uh, for some reason it makes me think of.
I've appraised a couple placeswith dinosaur bones and it's
like and this and the whoeveryou know I'm working for wants a
high value in these cases.
And talking up the value of thedinosaur bones, I remember I
did a project in NorthernMontana and a, a ranch with a
ton of dinosaur bones and the,the buyer bought it for the
bones, but he, he paid marketprice for it was mostly a dry
(19:49):
cropland place with a wholebunch of um bluffs, a whole
bunch of um breaks, and thebreaks especially is where the
bones were exposed.
But on, you know, the, theplateau, the tops were all
cropland and it was like I don'tknow, back back then it was
like 700 an acre, you know, 615acres, 700 an acre cropland.
That's what he bought it for.
(20:09):
Uh, so you know, like there wasno evidence in the market that
bones brought any more than yesthan wheat and and Indian
artifacts like arrowheads.
Colter DeVries (20:21):
So we're going to bring up this story.
I I had a seller who was justpumping his property to me, just
telling me you know, there usedto be Indian battles out here.
And and, uh, you gotta, yougotta put that in your brochure,
you gotta feature that there'sbeen Indian battles.
And I was like, well, okay,going back to like, uh, antiques
(20:43):
, Antiques Roadshow yeah can youverify this?
Can we?
Can someone corroborate yourstory?
Um, let's look into it, let'shave you know.
Let's, let's provide proof.
Rather than sell blue sky.
Let's not sell too much bluesky here.
Yeah, yeah and uh, he's likewell, that's your job, you gotta
look into, you, gotta find thatout.
He's like, but what I, what I'mgonna do is I'm gonna come, I'm
(21:06):
gonna put a bunch of stones ina circle, tp rings.
We could do that, right, and Iwas like I'd rather you didn't.
Now that you told me rightright don't.
Don't do that now, because I'mnot.
We're going to just drive by itand someone's going to see a
bunch of stones in a circle andI'm not going to put my
reputation by saying, yeah,those are teepee rings you know
(21:28):
it's back to the old.
Andy Rahn (21:30):
What's it called?
The rent, old, uh, AntiquesRoadshow?
Yeah, I mean that fantasy thatwhatever you pulled out of your
attic or basement is going to bethis home run.
And don't you think that'sbasically the phenomenon that
sellers in Montana have.
You know there have, even thoughthe actual number of times that
you know those kinds of thesehome runs or whatever get hit
(21:50):
are much lower than peopleactually think.
Yes, but they get out or theyget, they get exaggerated.
But so every seller thinksthey've got a Thomas Jefferson.
Yes, and you just haven't putenough ads in the Wall Street
Journal.
Is the problem?
Yeah, as the broker.
Colter DeVries (22:10):
And another thing with that uh, home run,
quote unquote I think that thatcan be normalized or it can be.
It's kind of a relative issue.
So when they think they'rehitting a home run, if they go
back and they do the compoundedannual growth rate since they
bought the ranch and say the 40sor 50s or 30, you know,
(22:33):
whenever their great grandpabought it, um, their compounded
annual growth rate might turnout to be 5%, right, right, over
the that many years.
Um, it's, it's just a big boonin their lifetime.
But over the longterm 5%, yeah,that's that's.
It exceeds the normal of 3%,right?
Andy Rahn (22:56):
Doesn't mean beat the equities market, though.
Colter DeVries (22:58):
Yeah, and, and that's why I'm saying it can be
normalized in a sense that thishome run isn't quite the home
run you think it is, cause it'sactually within a reasonable
range of time, value moneyadjusted.
Andy Rahn (23:14):
Well, it reminds me.
I've known of quite a fewproperties that, yeah, had a
really stubborn, obstinateseller and generally the market
does eventually catch.
You know, they might take 10years, or because there's
there's properties on the marketright now that have been on the
on the market for 10 years, andyou know, and then it happens
and the seller is like, see, Iheld out and I got my price.
(23:35):
But you look at the time valueof money and the opportunity
costs that they foregoed andthat and I've had this
conversation trying to getsellers to be more.
And it's funny too, right,because you know we've been in
very favorable market conditions.
You're trying to convince themto sell in a favorable market
condition for a good price andthey, you know they want to
(23:56):
fight with you and then dinkaround for years to tell they
finally get it sold.
But, yeah, the lost opportunitythey had at that time.
Colter DeVries (24:05):
Yep, which probably looks like a break even
.
Andy Rahn (24:09):
Yeah.
Colter DeVries (24:10):
Yeah, absolutely .
But in their minds I held, heldout.
I held out strong and I gotwhat I asked for.
Yeah, I can go to the coffeeshop with my head held high and
brag about.
Andy Rahn (24:20):
I got what I asked for yeah, yeah, you know I'm
flashing back to the episode youhad with dallas, the owner of
um uh ranching for profit, yes,and his comments you guys were
talking about, you know a littlebit bemoaning the loss of the
multi-generational you know uhfamily operator, but he made a
comment about how God awful, uhinefficient some of those places
(24:43):
are, and especially the onesthat sell, and that that
actually really resonated withme.
Um, and I think there'ssomething to do with that.
When it comes time to trade too, right, just not, I don't know
if efficient is the right word,but they're not approaching the
sale of it all that Analytical,yeah, I mean yeah, the old
(25:06):
generational operator runninghis ranch doesn't use KPIs.
Ad (25:11):
Yeah.
Colter DeVries (25:12):
They're not.
They're not doing balance sheetanalysis and cashflow analysis.
And then, when it comes toanalyzing that asset, yeah, um,
they're not doing that either.
Andy Rahn (25:23):
You know that reminds me of.
There used to be ever remember,Phillips uh, office supply on
main street Bozeman.
Is that too old for you?
I believe so, yeah, it was thisold and it was it, uh, you know
, closed.
Right, that was the news.
I mean, I've been there forever, downtown store, right, and I
was somewhere having you knowconversation about this.
And some guy says you mean,that place that's been trying to
(25:44):
go out of business for 20 years, like you'd go.
You'd go to buy a pencil thereand, as likely as not, the
eraser would be rock hard whenyou went to go right.
So it's like well, you bemoanwhatever a local, you know
historical place, but it's likethese, you know these places
(26:04):
gotta, if they're not efficient,if they're not, you know,
producing um food or fiber at anefficient rate, if they're not
supporting people on the place,you know yeah, why do we need to
support lifestyles?
Colter DeVries (26:19):
Why is that noble right?
Ad (26:21):
Why is?
Colter DeVries (26:21):
There more inherent value to people having
a lifestyle that they desire andthat they chose and that they
are wanting to pursuevoluntarily, on their own accord
.
Andy Rahn (26:33):
It is pretty sad when you show up in a place and the
place is pretty beat to death.
And now that I'm kind ofthinking about this and talking
about it, sometimes the peoplelook a little bit beat to death.
Colter DeVries (26:43):
Yeah, for sure.
Hey, I'm worn down and you knowit's a.
I can attest to that.
That's personal.
Andy Rahn (26:50):
Yeah, yeah.
And I mean we don't want themall to.
We want to preserve culture, wewant to preserve all that, but
there's got to be a middle.
I mean that's why the what'sthe outfit called?
Colter DeVries (27:03):
Ranch of Profit.
Andy Rahn (27:05):
Stuff like that is so great actually trying to help
people potentially make it.
Colter DeVries (27:12):
Well, we're getting into campaign season and
we have the number one senaterace in the United States.
Is that right?
Andy Rahn (27:19):
Yeah, well, I guess that's it's been.
That race has been that waymany times yep, I mean going
back to Tester and Burns.
Right, didn't Tester and Burns?
Yeah?
Colter DeVries (27:29):
First break that well, and and then and then
Danes and the former governor.
Bullock yeah so that theMontana seat has always been
viewed as a contested one toswing the Senate.
Well, not always, but in thelast 16 years, right, right,
because they viewed Montana as apurple state, which has been
(27:51):
right historically, yeah, and sonow, um, you know, we're going
to have the most funded senaterace in the nation, the highest
dollar senate race, which bringsout all the Carhartt jackets,
right American flags, guns.
Carhartt jackets uh, cowboys,farmers, John Deere tractor, yep
(28:14):
and um, one one of the issuesthat keeps coming up on.
You know both sides, they, theyspin it, they pitch it how they
want, because they they want tobe viewed as the populist right
, right that they're part of thegood yep, yep and uh, it's this
idea of protecting the familyfarmer and and uh, supporting
(28:39):
the family farmer.
And I, I see a lot of this.
I'm like you know that that'skind of bullshit to me, because
a lot of these, a lot of thesepeople, that sounds elitist with
your decaf coffee over there.
Andy Rahn (28:56):
Yeah, people are listening to this.
Colter DeVries (28:58):
Be like god it's culture or progressive in San
Francisco.
Which podcast am I on?
Um, but they one, they, theychose to be farmers and ranchers
and a lot of it is lifestyle.
They're not driven by KPIs and,like you said, efficiencies and
economies.
(29:18):
And then two, what I've seenfrom my network, my peers and
just my own experience being init, a lot of these people, it's
a trait, it's a skill set,they're good at that.
You're talking aboutpoliticians, family farmers,
family farmers yeah, familyfarmers, and they're to me.
(29:42):
I'm wondering, sitting here,wondering well, the rest of us?
We have to be adaptable, right,we have to change.
When, when our industry goes to, when my business goes to, I
have to adapt.
I have to find something elseto do, I have to pick up a new
skill, a new trade.
(30:02):
Why don't they?
Andy Rahn (30:05):
Oh yeah.
Well, it's one of the mostsubsidized industries in the
country, you know ag yeah, ohyeah absolutely, you know, you
know, yeah, speaking ofpolitical season and whatnot,
well, and of course, one of theissues is, uh, foreign ownership
of of land right.
What a bullshit issue we had thechinese balloon, you know, and
everything like that.
I, yeah, I, I feel like it'strying to put toothpaste back in
(30:25):
a tube and maybe, maybe youremember this or can correct me,
didn't.
So you know, we've been indesperate need of processing
facilities.
You know, we, we got really inthis uh zone where we're
producing, you know, all thesecalves, the world's best calves,
and shipping them to otherplaces to get processed.
We lost all our processing andthere was a multimillion dollar
big processing unit proposed formile city and it was Chinese
(30:48):
money, jdcom and the Chinese.
They came out and the stockgrowers were, were all about it.
You, you know.
Now, all of a sudden, foreignownership is like this political
issue and everybody's worked upabout it, and you know they
keep running those ads.
I'm going to stop China frombuying us farmland well, and the
the, the toothpaste out of thetube for me is, I mean, we have
(31:09):
a, we have a free market.
We don't?
We don't, I mean aside from,like you know, criminals or
something, we don't, uh, askpeople where their money comes
from.
I mean, we take money, right,so we have a free, open market,
yeah, um, but now all of asudden, you know, for political
expediency, we want to and andwe're and it's a globalized
(31:31):
society, globalized world.
Colter DeVries (31:32):
It's a complete bullshit issue.
Because one, it's not a problem, yeah.
And number two how are yougoing to limit the ccp from
buying us farmland withoutlimiting everyone else?
Well, you know who?
Andy Rahn (31:45):
Um, I actually went to a presentation that MSU put
on on this and you know who,what, what foreign well, first
of all, the biggest you know themost.
The most foreign foreign well,first of all, the biggest you
know the most the most foreignmoney is coming from Canada.
Colter DeVries (31:55):
Canada the Ontario teachers pension fund.
Andy Rahn (31:57):
Yeah, I mean the, the , the amount of bad actors China
, Venezuela, Iran, uh Iran andSouth Korea or North Korea, you
know is is minimal.
First of all, and you know whatmost of the foreign uh entities
are buying is energy, um,energy lands, lands for wind
leases and oil leases, andthat's the biggest target, is
energy.
Colter DeVries (32:19):
Yeah, why take $10 million of your sovereign
wealth and turn it into $7million?
Yeah, no, it's.
If I were.
So they're like well, theChinese bought farmland near an
air force base in north Dakota,all right, okay.
(32:40):
Well, if I was the CCP withnefarious intentions, I wouldn't
just come out as the CCP andbuy farmland.
I would would have a trust inSwitzerland that owns an LLC in
the Netherlands that owns an SCorp in Ireland that also is
part of a trust in the CaymanIslands and that trust would buy
(33:01):
the land.
So maybe you need to open up aconsulting firm.
That sounds like.
Andy Rahn (33:16):
Oh, what the hell is it called when you sell out your
own country?
Traitorism?
Colter DeVries (33:18):
Well yeah, traitor but but there there's a,
there's a legitimate term forthat when you sell out, yeah,
turncoat?
Andy Rahn (33:24):
I don't know Benedict Arnold right, right, yeah, I
find that sedition.
Colter DeVries (33:30):
Uh, maybe, yeah I didn't pay attention.
I think it's sedition.
Yeah, that sounds right,because, uh, the other the other
word I often confuse it with isuh, what the hell they?
They try to call people like meon January, insurrectionists,
insurrectionists.
Yeah, yeah, so to consult forthe CCP on buying farmland, I'd
(33:52):
be a seditionist.
Ad (33:53):
Yeah.
Colter DeVries (33:54):
Not, not, not an insurrectionist like I was in
Washington on January 6th.
Andy Rahn (34:03):
Are they coming for you?
Colter DeVries (34:03):
Next I'm going to get a knock on the door.
So I did once say I'd try tokeep this nonpolitical.
See how that went.
What else is going on since you?
Andy Rahn (34:19):
Last came.
You know it's funny.
I feel like I got to tell aBozeman story.
I had a nice across- state roadtrip.
I went to Butte, I went toMissoula.
I have family in Missoula andyou know, met with some folks
out there and had a great time,felt like just like a second
hometown out there.
I mean, I did my freshman yearof college out there and, like I
(34:39):
said, have family out there andyou know, just had one of these
trips where you just loveMontana and open road and all
that kind of stuff.
But then I come back to Bozemanand I'll remind people I lived
in Bozeman for about 17 years,up till about six years ago, and
I decided to check out the topof the armory the nine- story.
Colter DeVries (34:55):
Yeah, I went and had a drink up there.
Andy Rahn (34:57):
Yeah, I was going to have a drink at the armory
non-alcoholic of course ofboredom or loneliness, until I
sat at the top of the armory andhad an $18 old fashioned and uh
was treated with almostcomplete uh disinterest and
(35:18):
disdain from the Uber hotbartender.
Yeah, it's, it's a whole otherculture, isn't it?
Yeah, and you know, like I said, I I lived there for 17 years.
You know I think I'd have somesome uh clout.
Yeah, do you know who I am?
You need to go to the AmericanEagle for that.
Yeah, it was funny.
I was telling some friends,complaining to friends about it,
and they were like well,obviously you went to the wrong
(35:38):
place.
The hop is still still therefor you buddy yeah, the legion.
Well, it was funny because Istepped foot in the Rhino at
Missoula and I didn't even tendto stop, didn't even tend to
have a drink, and three hoursI'm chatting up with the whole
bar.
Everybody knows somebody, thatknows somebody.
You know, classic old Montana.
Colter DeVries (35:54):
The Rhino was the bar I went to when I went to
school there in Missoula.
Yeah, yeah, well, geez.
So now we're talking aboutthese cultural differences.
Coming to Montana, I did go to.
I stopped through Missoula theother day too and went to a
coffee shop where the coffeestirrers were pasta sticks more
(36:16):
sustainable.
Oh, yeah, yeah.
And then I went into thebathroom.
They had a list of local eventsand only in Missoula, in the
men's, or it wasn't a men'sbathroom, it was women's.
Either it was either, eithereither anything were you
confused or you was it.
Ad (36:35):
I was a little scared to go in like am I gonna look like a
pedo if?
I get this wrong.
Colter DeVries (36:42):
What's the answer here?
I don't know what these signsare, um, but yeah, on on the
bathroom wall was uh anadvertisement for West African
dance classes in Missoula,Montana and.
Ad (36:55):
I was like boy that is.
Colter DeVries (36:57):
That is very different than, uh, what I see
in Ekalaka, Montana.
Andy Rahn (37:01):
Yeah, you know I was.
I spent quite a bit of timejust walking around downtown
Missoula cause I hadn't been ina while, and I definitely saw
some of the same Bozeman typestuff.
You know, high-end shops andshiny people and stuff.
But you know, uh, I think Ifeel like Missoula is still
putting up something of a fight.
You know it's just it's theliberal, for maybe people that
don't know out of state it's.
(37:22):
It's where the liberal artsschool is, University of Montana
, so it's always been the hippiecapital of Montana, you know,
for a long time.
And, uh, social consciousnesshas been, or whatever social
justice, yeah, right, that'sbeen its deal.
Uh, and I've been in Missoula,like I feel like it's at least
putting up a fight, it's atleast pushing back, whereas
Bozeman is just completelyfolded yeah Bozeman is just like
(37:45):
well, in downtown Bozeman,which has often been celebrated
as a great, you know, evenhistoric, you know, down in
Montana downtown, at this pointit's almost all shopping and not
for locals, you know high- endshops and all this kind of stuff
.
I mean there's, there's theholdout Ace Hardware and a
couple of bars and stuff.
Colter DeVries (38:01):
But you know, yeah, and that whole.
They are elitist.
Wow, that was a broadgeneralization.
That's rich, coming from anelitist and wow, that was a
broad generalization that's richcoming from an elitist, well,
and I was gonna say who am I tocast a stone when I'm like you
guys aren't Montanans.
Right right, Bozeman is 20miles from montana yeah, yeah
that sounds a little snobby andelitist.
Andy Rahn (38:23):
Well, you know, although and I mean this is
honestly what pushed me out I, Ilove Bozeman.
I probably at one point thoughtI might stay there forever and
I don't think it's acharacterization of the people
that have moved in, I think it'sa factor of volume.
It's just been inundated.
You know, it's just communityphrase.
You just don't recognize peopleon the street and all that kind
(38:44):
of stuff, and I think, with theexception of, maybe, Whitefish,
you know, those two communitiesare the only, you know, our
communities in Montana that arecompletely transformed, I mean
almost unrecognizable from whatthey were a generation ago.
Like I'm saying about Missoula,it's putting up, it's still
kind of trying.
It's trying to navigate thosewaters of new types, new level
(39:05):
of wealth you know, all thatkind of stuff.
But, and you know towns likeLivingston and there's a number
of them, you know, but I ofstuff but uh, and you know towns
like Livingston and there's anumber of them, you know, but I
think Bozeman and maybeWhitefish are just completely.
Colter DeVries (39:16):
They're unrecognizable yeah, Bozeman did
elect a uh, a young socialistmayor.
Yeah right, I mean that, that'spretty wild.
Andy Rahn (39:25):
Yeah, I mean Bozeman used to be cow tech, yeah town
yeah, yeah, it's changing, butwe we've got to adapt right
right, right, but places likeyou know Billings has this just
slow and steady growth rate thatnever changes, no matter what
you know and look at the amountof new units, homes and shit
(39:51):
going up in buildings and, yeah,commercial like man we've.
Colter DeVries (39:55):
What is the new numbers?
We've grown population probably20 in the last five years I
don't think it's that as thathigh but but it's huge.
Andy Rahn (40:05):
Yeah, it's not 20 it's a big change yeah, so I
wanted to bring this up.
Uh, you know, talking about thelandmark and stuff, and in
inventory, you know it's beenspeculated, uh, whether or not
there might be a secondarymarket.
All the people that moved herein such a haste, um, you know a
couple winners.
(40:26):
Of course we haven't had anybrutal winners to speak of, but
yeah you know that.
You know making coming with, notwith, some haste, you know, is
there going to be a fall outwithin a few years of people not
being quite what they expected,and is that going to create a
secondary market, almost yourattrition washout.
Colter DeVries (40:46):
Yeah, the people I run into like at the gym who
moved here.
Some of these are COVIDrefugees.
Yeah, and they love it.
Ad (41:00):
They love Billings.
Colter DeVries (41:02):
And they had no connection.
It was a cold move.
It's hard to sustain, right, ifyou don't have family or an
employer.
Right, especially for amillennial with kids, like if
you don't have mom and dadaround, grandma and grandpa.
Raising kids is pretty freakinghard, right.
And so for some of these peopletheir cold move has lasted.
(41:23):
And and another one is likepeople in my daughter's
Montessori, dude they love it.
Elitist, liberal elite.
Andy Rahn (41:34):
That's what's going on here.
Colter DeVries (41:36):
Anti-public schools.
Ad (41:37):
Yeah.
Colter DeVries (41:42):
Yeah, they seem like they're here to stay.
Andy Rahn (41:44):
Well, another demographic that I can speak to
and I'm kind of one of them ispeople moving back home.
That never thought they woulddo that, maybe here, you know,
if you asked them 20 years ago,you know they'd be like, oh
Christ, no you know.
But uh, you know, it's part ofit's an age thing.
I think that's probably prettynatural, you know, as you get to
a certain age, like, oh,hometown doesn't look so bad and
(42:06):
maybe and I'm talking as a genextra right, older generation
parents are aging.
Oh, gotta be closer to mom anddad, that's aging out.
But I also think there's acultural change and I think
about even really small towns.
In Montana, I mean, everylittle town in Montana has a
groovy coffee shop and a breweryand uh, you know what I mean.
(42:26):
Totally so like people thatwhen Harlow has a brewery, yeah,
yeah.
So especially small- townMontana, and people that were
kind of like you know, I'm outof here, type deal, never
looking back then, and maybethey've gone somewhere and
gotten beat up in the big cityfor a while and they're just
like you know, home doesn'tsound so bad and there's
cultural amenities that I wasreally missing.
(42:47):
I mean part of why I fled.
But now you know the, the, thebrewery has a guy strumming
guitar you know every Friday,Saturday night in the corner.
Colter DeVries (42:55):
So it's like, oh , I got some the map of uh sex
offenders is far more spark,sparsely populated.
Andy Rahn (43:06):
And I wasn't so hardcore that I, like you know,
I'll never come back to Billingskind of thing.
But um, yeah, you know, andit's like this place looks
pretty darn good compared to alot of other places.
Colter DeVries (43:18):
I'd noticed that , like you know, about 10 years
ago when the boomers startedretiring and moving back to the
boomers who went off and madetheir careers elsewhere and then
came back to well, my home area, carbon county like I loved
seeing that.
They came back and got on themuseum board and the cemetery
board and got involved.
(43:38):
And one guy who we're going tohave on the podcast he like a
phd toxicologist so he knowsstatistics, he knows research
very well, he has been testingRock Creek and he's put together
a study that shows that all thedevelopment happening in the
Rock Creek valley, with septicsystems and drain fields, is
(44:02):
causing higher nitrogen levelsin Rock Creek.
And that's all volunteer workon his own time.
He's a retired boomer and likedude, that's what we need.
We need talent like that comingback with the time right.
And I love seeing that becauseat the same time you get these
people on these boards for like,uh, cattlemen's groups and farm
(44:24):
groups and they're like, oh,you young people, you got to get
involved and it's like we gotto raise some damn kids here.
We got to establish our careers.
Andy Rahn (44:33):
You got it.
We got to pay for your socialsecurity fund do you want to
work till you're 85, right?
Colter DeVries (44:41):
Uh no, you guys go to the community meetings and
sit on those boards andcommittees and that shit.
Because we have, we, we've, wehave constraints, right.
So it's good to see the boomerscoming back and applying their
talents and their time.
Andy Rahn (44:56):
Yeah, yeah, you mentioning Rock Creek made me
think of the floods a couple ofyears ago and, uh, spent a fair
amount of time on the river thatsummer, you know, after the
floods were gone and it was.
It was amazing because thelower Yellowstone, which is
usually pretty brown, was prettyclean, right, flushed out, you
know, except for the occasionalrefrigerator or washing machine
floating by.
Colter DeVries (45:19):
See, and that's why people love it here is
because it's a fridge and not adead body.
Andy Rahn (45:23):
Yeah, yeah, that might be coming.
Yeah, that might be coming.
Colter DeVries (45:36):
Oh well, 45 minutes in any, any, uh any
market analysis.
Some numbers, data, statisticsto bring up.
Andy Rahn (45:42):
Let me see, let me pull up, let me pull up this
handy website, Montana LandSource that's got live market
statistics.
Yeah, I mean, you know, like Italked about earlier, just
waiting for inventory to rebuild, but I mean we've got 50% less
new listings so far in 2024 than2023.
Wow, that's a surprise, I know,but I mean inventory.
(46:06):
While I say creeping up, Iguess that's not really true, I
mean just barely so still seeingshorter days on market number
of sales is up from last yearslightly.
You know, I just think we're.
I just keep thinking.
I've been criticized for usingthis word recovery because most
people think recovery is from abad time, not from a good time.
(46:31):
But as an appraiser, you know Isee extremes on either side is
kind of the same they're, youknow, they're disruptive markets
and unreal markets.
So I'm not bothered by the termrecovery, but I just get the
sense that it's kind of a letthings sort out, let the let the
let things sort out.
Colter DeVries (46:53):
Let the let the take years.
Yeah, it's going to take yearsto normalize back to 2019
activity, right levels and rightmetrics.
Andy Rahn (46:58):
But you know there's still demand is still strong.
From what I hear from from allthe brokers.
They all talk about, you know,having buyers that just haven't
found the right place and thatkind of stuff low it's all due
to low inventory can't find whatyou want.
Colter DeVries (47:10):
The salesmen are telling you that demand is
strong, yeah grain of saltthat's like, uh, this, this
other property I was workingwith on a buyer right now
actually, and again, we on thisother one, we're at 50, our
evaluation versus asking price.
We're, we're 50 from where,where they are at.
(47:33):
And the listing agent keepstelling us oh he's, he's really
motivated, he wants to sell thisranch, he's got another one in
mind, he, he wants to get movedto that other one.
And I'm I'm like, yeah, he'smotivated, at his price.
Yeah, exactly right.
Andy Rahn (47:51):
Exactly right, aren't we all?
Well, you know one thing I'vealways embraced as an appraiser.
I love the concept, so likewhen I write an appraisal, you
know I'm not I am not anadvocate, I'm not supposed to be
an advocate.
If anything, I'm an advocatefor the market and I've always
I've always liked that, wantedto lean in to that.
(48:12):
So I think I always have someoptimism when we get through
extremes and kind of come backto normalcy, that that normal
market factors will.
But it's always fleeting.
Colter DeVries (48:21):
There's one thing I kind of take from all of
this is that I don't thinkfarmer ranch is knee jerk.
It's not volatile.
I don't think farmer ranch isknee jerk.
It's not volatile.
Didn't move a lot, as you, yourdata shows, wasn't?
A lot of people are rushing tosell when times were good.
Andy Rahn (48:38):
Well, here's an interesting.
I've actually this is remindingme, I've kind of been working
on a blog along these linesAgain, just talking about the
Montana land market, and onething that occurred to me the
Montana land market is just,it's so as a highly imperfect
market we talked about thatearlier.
Just, you know, it's anon-disclosure state, there's
not a lot of price discovery,it's not a commodity with
(48:59):
similarity, you know, betweenproducts, but so it's a highly
imperfect market.
But it is a very free market.
You know, when I got thinkingabout it, we have very little,
we have very little outsideinfluences.
I mean, you know, there's alittle bit of government program
for new, but I mean almost nonefor, like, beginning farmers or
something like that right,there's significant.
I mean.
So you know when things do sell, when, when, when properties
(49:23):
are bought, it is a free marketand, uh, some people wanted to
dispute that or fuss with that.
If it's, you know, wealthyout-of-staters or conservation
organizations or that kind ofstuff, they you know.
But the reality is those arewilling buyers, willing sellers.
We actually have a very freemarket in Montana, unless you're
the CCP called Colter DeVries.
Colter DeVries (49:53):
Um yeah, I don't have any other thought.
I don't have any other thoughtsaround.
Andy Rahn (49:56):
That it's kind of a quiet time.
Yeah, quiet, quiet time in themarket I would.
Colter DeVries (50:02):
I think it's just tough to get anything done
because the the bid ask spread,it's too wide, there's, there's,
and there's no reason forsellers to sober up.
They don't have to sell.
There's not high debt there'sno liquidity crisis right.
They've been on it for 30 years.
They know that there's noreason to Montana, land sellers
(50:24):
are remarkably strong.
Andy Rahn (50:26):
I mean they tend.
They tend to be mean.
Occasionally you see familiesthat are, you know, in trouble
or that kind of stuff.
It's pretty rare actually.
I mean, they're usually pretty.
We'll wait this sucker out asneeded you know, whatever it
takes.
Colter DeVries (50:39):
Yeah, and I don't.
I don't see that changing.
I like I said, I think a lot ofthese places I'm looking at
with these buyers, um, I'm I'mabout 40% off in my CMA from
where they're asking and it'sjust hard to bridge that gap and
it probably won't get bridged.
These deals won't get done.
Andy Rahn (50:58):
I got a call the other day about the market and I
was kind of talking about allthe I don't want to say negative
factors, but just the thingswe're talking about, that you
know, inventory is down andvolume I was telling the volume
story volumes way down, and youknow all this kind of stuff.
And he says, oh, great, thatmeans, does that mean there's
deals to be had?
I busted out, laughing a littlebit.
(51:19):
Well, it was just interestingbecause, as I rewound what I
just been saying in any othercontext, that be the natural
conclusion, right, like, oh, youknow, clearly, you know, in a,
in a, in a, in a more normal,more rational, more functioning
market.
That would be the result.
Colter DeVries (51:38):
Yeah, but we just our market does not play by
the same rules I've got allthese watermelons that are about
to, about to go rotten, right,right right.
Andy Rahn (51:50):
Yeah, yeah, it's a durable product.
I guess that's part of ourissue too.
Colter DeVries (51:54):
Yep.
Well, thanks for coming on.
Yeah, it's been good, good tobe back here.
Thanks for inviting me.
You're on Montana Land Source.
Andy Rahn (52:00):
Yep.
Check out mtlandsource.
com live market stats and everylisting on the market 200 acres
and up is mapped and availableon our map app.
Colter DeVries (52:09):
And thanks for tuning into the ranch investor
podcast.
Ad (52:12):
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Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
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If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.