Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Jonathan and Kelly Show. Jonathan President, this
is the game we used to enact the Big Beautiful Bill,
and I want you to have that Kelly Nash, Jonathan
(00:24):
and Kelly Show.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
W it was a great American celebration all over the
country and we can talk more about that. Well, we
really don't have anything to a review at this point
as we watch the Big Beautiful Bill unfold. We'll have
more on that tomorrow as we get the opportunity to
read more about specifically what is in it, what is
not in it? Was there an Alaskan kickback?
Speaker 3 (00:48):
We're you know, we're gonna have one of our congressmen
coming in here Thursday and he's going to break down
exactly what's in it according to him and his staff,
And of course I'm sure Democrats will push back on that.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
We'll get thursday. Yeah, okay. Hey. The other big thing
came out just before the fourth of July celebration, the
Jobs numbers report, and that's been you know, widely read nationally.
But whenever we want to find out about Powell Meadow
state economics, we always turned to one man, Kelly Nash. Well,
come on the phone from the University of South Carolina,
(01:20):
Darla Morris, School of Business, Doctor Joey von Nesse, Good morning, guys.
Speaker 4 (01:25):
How are you now?
Speaker 2 (01:26):
You are a research economist or economist researcher. I'm not
sure if I got your title correct.
Speaker 4 (01:32):
Yes, research economist, you got it.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Now. The big numbers that came out nationwide, everybody was
reading about it. We saw the alerts come across our
phones about the jobs report for June. Talk to us
specifically first about some of the things you saw on
the national level that you thought were most interesting, because
I know it's kind of a mixed bag.
Speaker 4 (01:50):
It is a mixed bag overall. At a thirty thousand
foot view, it is a good report. One hundred and
forty seven thousand jobs created, which is right in the
sweet spot what we like to see. So it points
to a stable labor market overall. But the bad news
is that it's still a very skewed market, meaning that
most of the job growth is coming from the services sector,
(02:12):
not from the good sector. So the good sector is
still struggling, and we can talk about why that's the case,
and the private sector job growth was actually fairly low.
Only about half of the job gains came from the
private sector, which is a troubling sign if it continues,
because it means that we could be seeing a bit
of a bit of a slowdown. So overall, good news,
(02:34):
stable growth, but some problems to be on the lookout
for as we move into the second half of the summer.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
Doctor von Nesson on the phone with us from the
University of South Carolina. So I am confused because in
May they issued a report and then I was told
they actually had to revise the job's numbers up in
May it was actually better than they had anticipated, and
May was a pretty good number from what I remember.
June comes in far better than the had been expected.
(03:03):
I think they were expecting around one hundred thousand. They
got one hundred and forty seven thousand. And then I
see ADP wants to come on out the people who
issue paychecks and say, not only did you not add
one hundred and forty seven thousand jobs, you actually lost
thirty three thousand jobs. We went the other way. What
(03:23):
do you think about that?
Speaker 4 (03:25):
So, for that second statistic that you quote, a lot
of these companies that are serveying privately, these companies to
get a separate sense of what the job market is doing.
They're only looking at the private sector, and so they
saw a potential week job support from the private sector,
and that's not actually incompatible with what we saw from
(03:47):
the Bureau of Labor Statistics because the private sector employment
again was only about half of the of that one
hundred and forty seven thousand numbers. So they are very different,
but directionally they are actually fairly similar, and that they
pointed to a weeker labor market. But you're right that
there is a lot of back and forth because we
do see these job numbers that are revised over time,
(04:11):
and that's because we get additional survey data that come in.
So in order to in any type of survey, you
have a trade off. If you want numbers faster, you
can't get as detailed of a report. In other words,
you can't talk to as many people. So what you
see from the BLS is they get numbers as quickly
as they can, but they continue to survey and that's
(04:32):
why we see revisions down the road. The revisions are
more accurate, but they because they survey more companies, but
it takes a bit longer for them to come in.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Let me ask a national question that may actually dovetail
into a South Carolina answer. When the Biden administration was
pumping the government with constant addition to a larger government
and more jobs, we all said to ourselves, if we
saw the jobs report like fifty percent of the jobs
created about the government, this is not the way we
wanted to go. But in this particular case, now we're
(05:03):
seeing that we are actually still adding the majority of
jobs inside government, although it may be state and local
now outside of the teachers, which obviously is going to
be a big influx of new hires, what else are
we seeing that leads us to believe that we're not
still growing government larger than we should, even in the
face of the promises of the Trump administration.
Speaker 4 (05:25):
Well, factor here is that it's not that we have
seen an increase in the jobs created by government. It's
that the private selector has slowed down. That's the challenge
that we're seeing this year. So it's the percentage of
the job creation that that's really the problem. Previously, if
you look in the last several years and during the
(05:47):
Biden administration, you had a lot of government adjacent jobs.
It wasn't necessarily the direct government jobs where the criticism
came from. It was also the fact that it was
government adjacent, meaning if you look at jobs like healthcare,
for example, where you have a lot of subsidies and
government assistants that supports healthcare, that has been a major
(06:10):
driver for growth nationally and in South Carolina for the
last several years, And in fact, healthcare has been the
number one driver of growth in South Carolina in twenty
twenty three, twenty twenty four, and probably will be the
case this year as well.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
Talking with doctor von Nesson, I this is a question
I probably should know the answer to, and I was
trying to google it. Perhaps you know it off the
top of your head. So when I look at the
jobs and we're talking about how we don't want to
see as many government jobs as we want to see
in the private sector, government jobs this I'm just reading
for this from CNBC government jobs all the largest month
(06:46):
over month sector growth at seventy three thousand jobs from
the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. Are any are government
jobs also people enrolling in the military, because I know
we've seen a huge spike in military enrollment.
Speaker 4 (07:03):
Yes, So when when you're looking at government in this case,
we're looking at state and local, but overall, if you
look at federal, state and local employment, that will include military,
that includes education, that can include any type of state
state office staff. So it's a there're a variety of
(07:27):
government based jobs, and we we do see differences at
the state level, and of course South Carolina has a
larger military presence than we see in most most US states.
So it is it really depends on the month that
we're looking at, but there are a variety of or
many public sectors from where this employment growth where it can.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Come from, given that we've all seen the overall numbers
that the private sector did not grow as much as anticipated,
and the good number was brought up by the state
and local and particular jobs the state of South Carolina.
If it has a headline, what would it be out
of this report?
Speaker 4 (08:07):
The line for South Carolina is that the service sector
is still driving our employment. I mean that is really
the big takeaway nationally and locally in South Carolina. The
services sector has been growing about three times as fast
as the goods market. That's been true in general throughout
twenty twenty five. It's true in this latest report, and
(08:29):
that points to a very bifurcated market. It is good
news and that it shows that we are continuing to
see spending on sectors like leisure and hospitality, which suggests
that consumers are willing to are willing to spend. In
other words, the lack of consumer confidence that we've seen
this year has not mitigated consumer spending too much. But
(08:52):
it also is a warning sign because if we put
too many eggs in one basket, so to speak, if
most of our growth is coming from just a handful
of sectors, it puts us more at risk for a
slowdown later on. The Other factor that's a challenge for
South Carolina is that manufacturing has not seen any growth
in twenty twenty five. It's been very flat or negative
(09:14):
in most months. So that's another major driver of our
long run growth in South Carolina. So that's something to
keep an eye on as well.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
Talking with doctor von Nessen from the Darwin Moore School
of Business, you mentioned manufacturing for the month down seven
thousand jobs nationally. That ties the professional and business services
also down seven thousand jobs for the month. I'm wondering,
as somebody who studies the economy, Trump had been promising
(09:43):
to bring manufacturing back to America is what we're seeing
a lagging indicator, meaning that the policies that he's set
into place, they're building factories. Like you know here we
have a new factory going up in Blythewood and everybody's
excited about that. But I mean throughout the state and
(10:03):
throughout the country we hear of these new manufacturing jobs
that are coming. They're just not here yet. It'll take
a while for these plants to open. Is that a possibility.
Speaker 4 (10:13):
It is, yes. And one of the problems with tariffs
that makes them so controversial is that the costs and
the benefits associated with tariffs are not synonymous because the
costs typically show up upfront in terms of higher prices
for the consumer. The benefits, to the extent that we
(10:34):
see more investment in the state or in the US,
come down the road and can come several years down
the road. And part of what we're saying why the
goods market has been doing poorly in twenty twenty five
is because we have seen higher prices and uncertainty. And
that's why when you look at manufacturing and wholesale and
(10:55):
retail trade and transportation, warehousing logistics, all of those good
sectors have seen fairly weak growth this year, and that's
why because of that uncertainty. But again, the risk there
and the potential benefit comes down the road if we
see more manufacturing investment, that ultimately leads to a better
(11:15):
and healthier manufacturing sector.
Speaker 2 (11:17):
So if it's possible for an economist to put on
rose colored glasses, and I know you're so statistically driven,
that's typically not what you do. You're saying that when
we see more coverage of ribbon cutting celebrations than groundbreaking celebrations,
will be to get a better estimate on how well
we invested our tax benefits or the like to get
industries to move to the Palmetto state.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
That's exactly right, and that can take several years to materialize,
and so it takes a while to really see the
full impact of these tariffs, because again we economists talk
in terms of trade offs, and so with respect to tariffs,
you do see an increase in prices and that has
a short run impact. And then the question is do
(12:02):
we see games down the road with additional investments and
their time will tell and we'll see as we move
forward what type of investments we see and the extent
of the job and income creation that creates for South
Carolinians and for the US as a.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
Whole, Doctor von Nesson, I'm wondering. I had seen several
economists on like CNN, those types of national networks who
said that they were surprised by this job jobs report,
that it was actually far better than they had anticipated,
because they had felt all along that when what did
(12:36):
Trump call it Independence Day or Financial Freedom Day or
whatever it was, that those tariffs were going to drive
prices through the roof and destroy jobs in America, and
that June was going to be the month that we
would really see that in and it hasn't materialized anywhere
near the levels that they had anticipated. Are you also
(12:56):
in that camp or are you kind of more along
the line of it has an effect. It's a little
bit negative right now, but it could get better as
we move forward.
Speaker 1 (13:06):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (13:06):
I would definitely not say, you know, we're going to
look at any type of catastrophic effect from the tariffs.
I think that's clear, well, at least from my perspective,
clear exaggeration, But I think it is true that when
you see it's clear, when you see rising prices that
does have an impact on demand. And again that's why
(13:27):
we're seeing such a weak picture in terms of the
good sector in twenty twenty five. I think a lot
of that is the uncertainty and the price increases that
we've seen from the tariff and trade policy back and forth.
But that does raise the question that you pose about inflation.
We haven't seen inflation go up significantly. We have seen
it in some sectors, and so right now, one of
(13:50):
the things that we're looking for, and this is something
the FED is looking for as well, is whether or
not these price increases are delayed, if we're going to
see inflation tick up in the second half of the summer,
or whether these cost increases are mostly being absorbed by
businesses and the fact that we are seeing weaker growth
this year, lower demand. The combination of those factors prevents
(14:15):
these price increases from actually moving through to the consumer.
And we really don't know the answer to that, and
so time will tell there. And that's why the FED
is taking a wait and see approach on interest rates.
And that's why there's still a lot of uncertainty about
the second half of the year, because we have seen
price increases in certain sectors, but it hasn't led to
an overall increase in inflation, and so we're again still
(14:39):
waiting to see why that's the case. What happens in
the second half of the year.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
Well, America would love to see the FAD bring the
interest rate. Now we'll find out if that timetable is
going to be advanced with the better than expected June
numbers as anticipated by the street and by the Fed.
Hopefully by the time we talk to you again next month,
you'll have some good news for us on that front.
Speaker 4 (14:59):
Absolutely, I think that right now we are looking more
it's it's looking more likely that we see FED rate
cuts in the fall as opposed to this summer. I
think that that it's unlikely we'll see an interest rate
cut in the next month or so, but probably in
the fall. Two rate cuts is the expectation before the
(15:19):
end of the year. I think that's probably accurate, assuming
we don't see any major change in the in the data.
So we're still on track for rate cuts later this year,
but again, will happen this summer right now, I'd say
probably not. I'd say that's fairly unlikely, Doctor.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
Joy von Nessen. Thank you for your time, sir.
Speaker 4 (15:36):
My pleasure. Thank you
Welcome to the Jonathan and Kelly Show. Jonathan President, this
is the game we used to enact the Big Beautiful Bill,
and I want you to have that Kelly Nash, Jonathan
(00:24):
and Kelly Show.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
W it was a great American celebration all over the
country and we can talk more about that. Well, we
really don't have anything to a review at this point
as we watch the Big Beautiful Bill unfold. We'll have
more on that tomorrow as we get the opportunity to
read more about specifically what is in it, what is
not in it? Was there an Alaskan kickback?
Speaker 3 (00:48):
We're you know, we're gonna have one of our congressmen
coming in here Thursday and he's going to break down
exactly what's in it according to him and his staff,
And of course I'm sure Democrats will push back on that.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
We'll get thursday. Yeah, okay. Hey. The other big thing
came out just before the fourth of July celebration, the
Jobs numbers report, and that's been you know, widely read nationally.
But whenever we want to find out about Powell Meadow
state economics, we always turned to one man, Kelly Nash. Well,
come on the phone from the University of South Carolina,
(01:20):
Darla Morris, School of Business, Doctor Joey von Nesse, Good morning, guys.
Speaker 4 (01:25):
How are you now?
Speaker 2 (01:26):
You are a research economist or economist researcher. I'm not
sure if I got your title correct.
Speaker 4 (01:32):
Yes, research economist, you got it.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Now. The big numbers that came out nationwide, everybody was
reading about it. We saw the alerts come across our
phones about the jobs report for June. Talk to us
specifically first about some of the things you saw on
the national level that you thought were most interesting, because
I know it's kind of a mixed bag.
Speaker 4 (01:50):
It is a mixed bag overall. At a thirty thousand
foot view, it is a good report. One hundred and
forty seven thousand jobs created, which is right in the
sweet spot what we like to see. So it points
to a stable labor market overall. But the bad news
is that it's still a very skewed market, meaning that
most of the job growth is coming from the services sector,
(02:12):
not from the good sector. So the good sector is
still struggling, and we can talk about why that's the case,
and the private sector job growth was actually fairly low.
Only about half of the job gains came from the
private sector, which is a troubling sign if it continues,
because it means that we could be seeing a bit
of a bit of a slowdown. So overall, good news,
(02:34):
stable growth, but some problems to be on the lookout
for as we move into the second half of the summer.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
Doctor von Nesson on the phone with us from the
University of South Carolina. So I am confused because in
May they issued a report and then I was told
they actually had to revise the job's numbers up in
May it was actually better than they had anticipated, and
May was a pretty good number from what I remember.
June comes in far better than the had been expected.
(03:03):
I think they were expecting around one hundred thousand. They
got one hundred and forty seven thousand. And then I
see ADP wants to come on out the people who
issue paychecks and say, not only did you not add
one hundred and forty seven thousand jobs, you actually lost
thirty three thousand jobs. We went the other way. What
(03:23):
do you think about that?
Speaker 4 (03:25):
So, for that second statistic that you quote, a lot
of these companies that are serveying privately, these companies to
get a separate sense of what the job market is doing.
They're only looking at the private sector, and so they
saw a potential week job support from the private sector,
and that's not actually incompatible with what we saw from
(03:47):
the Bureau of Labor Statistics because the private sector employment
again was only about half of the of that one
hundred and forty seven thousand numbers. So they are very different,
but directionally they are actually fairly similar, and that they
pointed to a weeker labor market. But you're right that
there is a lot of back and forth because we
do see these job numbers that are revised over time,
(04:11):
and that's because we get additional survey data that come in.
So in order to in any type of survey, you
have a trade off. If you want numbers faster, you
can't get as detailed of a report. In other words,
you can't talk to as many people. So what you
see from the BLS is they get numbers as quickly
as they can, but they continue to survey and that's
(04:32):
why we see revisions down the road. The revisions are
more accurate, but they because they survey more companies, but
it takes a bit longer for them to come in.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Let me ask a national question that may actually dovetail
into a South Carolina answer. When the Biden administration was
pumping the government with constant addition to a larger government
and more jobs, we all said to ourselves, if we
saw the jobs report like fifty percent of the jobs
created about the government, this is not the way we
wanted to go. But in this particular case, now we're
(05:03):
seeing that we are actually still adding the majority of
jobs inside government, although it may be state and local
now outside of the teachers, which obviously is going to
be a big influx of new hires, what else are
we seeing that leads us to believe that we're not
still growing government larger than we should, even in the
face of the promises of the Trump administration.
Speaker 4 (05:25):
Well, factor here is that it's not that we have
seen an increase in the jobs created by government. It's
that the private selector has slowed down. That's the challenge
that we're seeing this year. So it's the percentage of
the job creation that that's really the problem. Previously, if
you look in the last several years and during the
(05:47):
Biden administration, you had a lot of government adjacent jobs.
It wasn't necessarily the direct government jobs where the criticism
came from. It was also the fact that it was
government adjacent, meaning if you look at jobs like healthcare,
for example, where you have a lot of subsidies and
government assistants that supports healthcare, that has been a major
(06:10):
driver for growth nationally and in South Carolina for the
last several years, And in fact, healthcare has been the
number one driver of growth in South Carolina in twenty
twenty three, twenty twenty four, and probably will be the
case this year as well.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
Talking with doctor von Nesson, I this is a question
I probably should know the answer to, and I was
trying to google it. Perhaps you know it off the
top of your head. So when I look at the
jobs and we're talking about how we don't want to
see as many government jobs as we want to see
in the private sector, government jobs this I'm just reading
for this from CNBC government jobs all the largest month
(06:46):
over month sector growth at seventy three thousand jobs from
the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. Are any are government
jobs also people enrolling in the military, because I know
we've seen a huge spike in military enrollment.
Speaker 4 (07:03):
Yes, So when when you're looking at government in this case,
we're looking at state and local, but overall, if you
look at federal, state and local employment, that will include military,
that includes education, that can include any type of state
state office staff. So it's a there're a variety of
(07:27):
government based jobs, and we we do see differences at
the state level, and of course South Carolina has a
larger military presence than we see in most most US states.
So it is it really depends on the month that
we're looking at, but there are a variety of or
many public sectors from where this employment growth where it can.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Come from, given that we've all seen the overall numbers
that the private sector did not grow as much as anticipated,
and the good number was brought up by the state
and local and particular jobs the state of South Carolina.
If it has a headline, what would it be out
of this report?
Speaker 4 (08:07):
The line for South Carolina is that the service sector
is still driving our employment. I mean that is really
the big takeaway nationally and locally in South Carolina. The
services sector has been growing about three times as fast
as the goods market. That's been true in general throughout
twenty twenty five. It's true in this latest report, and
(08:29):
that points to a very bifurcated market. It is good
news and that it shows that we are continuing to
see spending on sectors like leisure and hospitality, which suggests
that consumers are willing to are willing to spend. In
other words, the lack of consumer confidence that we've seen
this year has not mitigated consumer spending too much. But
(08:52):
it also is a warning sign because if we put
too many eggs in one basket, so to speak, if
most of our growth is coming from just a handful
of sectors, it puts us more at risk for a
slowdown later on. The Other factor that's a challenge for
South Carolina is that manufacturing has not seen any growth
in twenty twenty five. It's been very flat or negative
(09:14):
in most months. So that's another major driver of our
long run growth in South Carolina. So that's something to
keep an eye on as well.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
Talking with doctor von Nessen from the Darwin Moore School
of Business, you mentioned manufacturing for the month down seven
thousand jobs nationally. That ties the professional and business services
also down seven thousand jobs for the month. I'm wondering,
as somebody who studies the economy, Trump had been promising
(09:43):
to bring manufacturing back to America is what we're seeing
a lagging indicator, meaning that the policies that he's set
into place, they're building factories. Like you know here we
have a new factory going up in Blythewood and everybody's
excited about that. But I mean throughout the state and
(10:03):
throughout the country we hear of these new manufacturing jobs
that are coming. They're just not here yet. It'll take
a while for these plants to open. Is that a possibility.
Speaker 4 (10:13):
It is, yes. And one of the problems with tariffs
that makes them so controversial is that the costs and
the benefits associated with tariffs are not synonymous because the
costs typically show up upfront in terms of higher prices
for the consumer. The benefits, to the extent that we
(10:34):
see more investment in the state or in the US,
come down the road and can come several years down
the road. And part of what we're saying why the
goods market has been doing poorly in twenty twenty five
is because we have seen higher prices and uncertainty. And
that's why when you look at manufacturing and wholesale and
(10:55):
retail trade and transportation, warehousing logistics, all of those good
sectors have seen fairly weak growth this year, and that's
why because of that uncertainty. But again, the risk there
and the potential benefit comes down the road if we
see more manufacturing investment, that ultimately leads to a better
(11:15):
and healthier manufacturing sector.
Speaker 2 (11:17):
So if it's possible for an economist to put on
rose colored glasses, and I know you're so statistically driven,
that's typically not what you do. You're saying that when
we see more coverage of ribbon cutting celebrations than groundbreaking celebrations,
will be to get a better estimate on how well
we invested our tax benefits or the like to get
industries to move to the Palmetto state.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
That's exactly right, and that can take several years to materialize,
and so it takes a while to really see the
full impact of these tariffs, because again we economists talk
in terms of trade offs, and so with respect to tariffs,
you do see an increase in prices and that has
a short run impact. And then the question is do
(12:02):
we see games down the road with additional investments and
their time will tell and we'll see as we move
forward what type of investments we see and the extent
of the job and income creation that creates for South
Carolinians and for the US as a.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
Whole, Doctor von Nesson, I'm wondering. I had seen several
economists on like CNN, those types of national networks who
said that they were surprised by this job jobs report,
that it was actually far better than they had anticipated,
because they had felt all along that when what did
(12:36):
Trump call it Independence Day or Financial Freedom Day or
whatever it was, that those tariffs were going to drive
prices through the roof and destroy jobs in America, and
that June was going to be the month that we
would really see that in and it hasn't materialized anywhere
near the levels that they had anticipated. Are you also
(12:56):
in that camp or are you kind of more along
the line of it has an effect. It's a little
bit negative right now, but it could get better as
we move forward.
Speaker 1 (13:06):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (13:06):
I would definitely not say, you know, we're going to
look at any type of catastrophic effect from the tariffs.
I think that's clear, well, at least from my perspective,
clear exaggeration, But I think it is true that when
you see it's clear, when you see rising prices that
does have an impact on demand. And again that's why
(13:27):
we're seeing such a weak picture in terms of the
good sector in twenty twenty five. I think a lot
of that is the uncertainty and the price increases that
we've seen from the tariff and trade policy back and forth.
But that does raise the question that you pose about inflation.
We haven't seen inflation go up significantly. We have seen
it in some sectors, and so right now, one of
(13:50):
the things that we're looking for, and this is something
the FED is looking for as well, is whether or
not these price increases are delayed, if we're going to
see inflation tick up in the second half of the summer,
or whether these cost increases are mostly being absorbed by
businesses and the fact that we are seeing weaker growth
this year, lower demand. The combination of those factors prevents
(14:15):
these price increases from actually moving through to the consumer.
And we really don't know the answer to that, and
so time will tell there. And that's why the FED
is taking a wait and see approach on interest rates.
And that's why there's still a lot of uncertainty about
the second half of the year, because we have seen
price increases in certain sectors, but it hasn't led to
an overall increase in inflation, and so we're again still
(14:39):
waiting to see why that's the case. What happens in
the second half of the year.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
Well, America would love to see the FAD bring the
interest rate. Now we'll find out if that timetable is
going to be advanced with the better than expected June
numbers as anticipated by the street and by the Fed.
Hopefully by the time we talk to you again next month,
you'll have some good news for us on that front.
Speaker 4 (14:59):
Absolutely, I think that right now we are looking more
it's it's looking more likely that we see FED rate
cuts in the fall as opposed to this summer. I
think that that it's unlikely we'll see an interest rate
cut in the next month or so, but probably in
the fall. Two rate cuts is the expectation before the
(15:19):
end of the year. I think that's probably accurate, assuming
we don't see any major change in the in the data.
So we're still on track for rate cuts later this year,
but again, will happen this summer right now, I'd say
probably not. I'd say that's fairly unlikely, Doctor.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
Joy von Nessen. Thank you for your time, sir.
Speaker 4 (15:36):
My pleasure. Thank you
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