June 9th, Monday Market Update and Mindset Call with Nikki, Cari and Angie

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The Monday Market Update returns with key insights on changing real estate markets across the United States, highlighting significant regional differences and explaining why waiting for interest rates to drop might cost buyers more in the long run.

• Jobs report exceeded expectations with 160,000 new jobs versus the anticipated 92,000
• Bond market reaction pushed interest rates higher, breaking through resistance levels
• Interest rates likely heading toward or exceeding 7% this week as CPI reports and China trade talks add uncertainty
• Florida homes now average 65 days on market (up 12 days from April) with 38.8% receiving price reductions
• Arizona shows similar cooling with 57 days on market (up 9 days) and 34% of homes getting price cuts
• Minnesota market remains relatively stronger with 27 days on market and 26.6% price reduction rate

• Case study shows buyer who waited a year now faces both higher interest rates and $10,000 higher home prices
• Waiting for "perfect" conditions often results in higher overall costs due to combined effects of rising rates and appreciation

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Monday Market Update.
Nikki, I'll let you take itaway.

Speaker 2 (00:04):
Yeah.
So it's been a couple of weekssince I've been able to actually
come on for the Monday MarketUpdate.
So I'm actually happy to behere, happy to be back and like
get things rolling.
So Friday we had a morefavorable than expected jobs
report come out, stating thatthe creation of jobs was
somewhere around 160,000 jobcreations.
They were expecting about92,000.

(00:26):
So because of the increase,that kind of set the bond market
in a little bit of a tizzy.
The stock market loved it, butthe bond market not so much.
So we saw quite the increase ininterest rates on Friday and we
broke through a lot of floorsof resistance because of that.
And rolling into this week we'regoing to be getting the jobs or

(00:46):
, I'm sorry, not the jobs report.
We're going to be getting theCPI reports, which of course
speaks to inflation.
They are expecting a littleslight increase in inflation.
And then we also have the Chinatrade talks going on this week
and, depending on the result ofthose, that's also going to be
not so great for the bond market.
So this week is not lookinggood from an interest rate

(01:07):
standpoint.
I'm guessing that we're goingto be upwards and towards that
7% mark, even a little bit overas we head into the week and
with the uncertainty of all thethings that are happening right
now.
So we'll kind of see whatinflation does.
It shouldn't go up too much butit is expected to rise.
This will be the first monththat they're predicting that the
effect of the tariffs ishappening on inflation and we'll

(01:29):
see what that does.
So it's kind of a big week inthe idea of, you know, economic
perspective, but not such agreat week predicted for
mortgage interest rates.
So we'll just kind of ride itout.
Everything's going to be fine.
We do generally see a slowdownin business around the 4th of
July in the weeks leading up toit.
So it'll be interesting to kindof just see, okay, how many

(01:50):
people are active right now andwhat can we do to kind of just
wait out those interest rates.
So, with that being said, Iwanted to talk about different
markets across the United States.
I've been talking about thisfor a couple months now, about
the market specifically inFlorida and Arizona and how that
starts to set the tone for theother markets in the United
States.
So in Florida, right now, thehomes in Florida on average are

(02:12):
averaging 65 days on marketbefore selling.
That is up nine days from theaverage in April I'm sorry, 12
days from the average in April.
That's a huge increase frommonth over month.
Also, 38.8% of homes have atleast one price drop before they
sell.
So that's over one third ofhomes in Florida are having

(02:34):
these price drops before theysell.
A lot of the homes in the morepopular areas like Miami and
Fort Lauderdale, those arestaying on the market for 90 to
95 days.
So we've got definitely aslowdown or a more
buyer-friendly market in thatFlorida area.
To compare, in Minnesota theaverage amount of time the home
stays on the market is 27 days,which is just two days up from

(02:58):
April, and 26.6% of those homesreceive a price reduction before
selling.
So you can kind of see that yes, the numbers are going up
across both markets.
Minnesota obviously is a slowerprogression as far as increased
number of days on the market.
Thirdly, in Arizona the averageis 57 days, which is up nine

(03:20):
days from last month, and also34% of homes receive a price
reduction before selling.
So in both of Florida and theArizona market homes are staying
on the market longer and theyare having at least one price
reduction before selling.
So it's definitely turning overinto more of a buyer's market.

(03:40):
These numbers are expected tokind of continue to rise at
least through the end of July asthe uncertainty and things like
that with the economy kind ofkeep going.
But hopefully, if you are in themarket for I don't know a
second home in Arizona orFlorida, you can actually get a
really great deal right now.
So that's kind of the positiveside of it.
In real estate, what do we say?

(04:01):
We make money when you buy thehome, not when you sell the home
.
So as long as you are buyingsmart and as long as you are
understanding what that marketis and, more specifically,
understanding what the market isin your specific city or area
that you want to purchase in, itreally helps to have a real
estate agent who understandsthat market, someone who has
experience in a specific areathat you're trying to buy and

(04:23):
can understand negotiating pricepoints and understand how long
homes have been on the marketand why and what they can do to
help bring value when it comesto negotiating that deal,
especially in the Arizona andFlorida markets right now.

Speaker 1 (04:59):
Love it?
Absolutely no.
And that the perfectopportunity to be thinking about
and going through your databank and seeing who's in there
that you should be calling andget in front of with these
opportunities.
So that's a great, great way.
Just cap, you know, it'sanything wherever the market's
at, in any state, whether it'sbuyer or seller, there's always

(05:22):
someone that you can be servingor showing up for.
So it's just taking that.
Wherever you put the blinderson with what's happening and
then where can you go to providevalue?

Speaker 2 (05:34):
Yeah, absolutely, and a lot of this is, keep in mind,
a lot of this is weatherrelated too, because in Florida
and Arizona, specifically, asthe summer, as it turns over to
the summer months, it gets hotand a lot of people are not
buying real estate in the summerin those two states
specifically.
So the homes do tend to sit onthe market longer in these
summer months, but we're talkingApril to May, when there should

(05:54):
be a lot of activity in thesetwo markets still, and homes are
sitting for a little bit longerthan we would like to see and a
little bit longer than they didlast year as well, and so it's
one of those things where, froma buyer's perspective, it's
starting to be a buyer's market.
Also important to note, thistime last year, interest rates
were 5.875.
So it's very important thatyour buyers understand if

(06:17):
they've been sitting on thefence or they've been waiting,
they aren't in a better positionthan they would have been last
year if they would have bought,and so it's kind of helping to
explain them.
I was talking to a customer ofmine who has been sitting on the
fence for about a year and Isaid look, last time we quoted
was the same time last year youwere at 5.875 the last time that
I quoted, and now we're at6.375.

(06:38):
And the home that you arespecifically looking for the
type of home that you'respecifically looking for is
$10,000 more expensive than itwas a year ago.
So here's the difference.
It was a $200 to $300difference in payment, with
those two factors worked in.
So it's very important thatwhen you're talking to your
buyers, they understand thatjust because you're waiting for

(07:00):
interest rates to go downdoesn't mean that home is going
to get less expensive.
It's going to end up costingyou the same, if not more, and
in his case, both the interestrate is higher and the price is
higher.

Speaker 1 (07:11):
When's a good time to buy.
Now that's so great I'm glad youbrought that up because, as
agents, we need to be havingthose conversations in the broad
picture and not just interestrate and so many things.
And I know we've talked aboutthis before.
What do you hear about in themedia?
It's always interest rate,interest rate, interest rate,

(07:32):
you know.
And so it's really being thevoice of reason, finding a good
lender, good partner like Nikki,that can explain these things,
takes the time to explain thesethings, has the case studies.
So reach out to Nikki and getthis case study, get these
things, takes the time toexplain these things, has the
case studies.
So reach out to Nikki and getthis case study, get these
numbers, post this to yoursocial media, follow Nikki.
You can stitch, duet, rip off,rinse and repeat anything that

(07:54):
she posts.
She's given us permission to dothis and come from education,
because that is key right therewhat you just said, what it
looked like a year ago versuswhat it looked like now, and
people are waiting.
We only know what we know today.
So I think that that's sopowerful and that's what we need
to be doing as agents and showis showing up and showing value,

(08:17):
getting all the information,not just the interest rate,
because it's not only about theinterest rate and we have to
educate the general public, oursphere of influence, our past
clients remind them again andany potential clients.
It's just, it's definitelyneeded, absolutely.
Yeah, I love that and you knowand think about that too and you

(08:40):
bring.
This is why I love EXP.
I love that we're in 23different countries.
I love, nikki, that we're in 23different countries.
I we're in our busy season inMinnesota, because this is when
you know, like April to August,before kids go back to school,
is our busy time.
Arizona, florida not so much soas an agent, especially if

(09:04):
you're in the referral part ofthe business and you're looking
for other agents or you'relooking to get your license
across different states.
Think about that as a businessstrategy.
Think about where you're atright now and if you were to
expand or find business partners, where do you want them to be
and where is the yin and yang ofyour business as far as time

(09:25):
goes and seasonality, for sure,yeah, absolutely Good, good,
well, and I again appreciate it.
So good to see you back here.
I've held it down, but it'salways, I know you've done a
great job.
You show up at such great energyI want to put out there to
agents.
Since we are about to thehalfway point here for the year,

(09:47):
I have, for the month of June,just want to help agents this
month get from where you are towhere you want to be.
Want to help agents this monthget from where you are to where
you want to be.
Maybe you're a little bit offor a lot off, or you're ahead of
goal.
Let's keep that momentum going.
So reach out to me.
We can jump on a call and juststrategize, because I want to
help as many agents as I can inthe month of June.

(10:09):
Make sure that you're where youneed to be to set the second
part of the year up for theultimate success.
So that's my, my thing fortoday let's get in there and get
the work done and finish theyear.
The second part really strong.
Yeah, awesome, good, all right.
Well, you know where to find us.

(10:30):
Uh, if you need us, we're here.
Send us messages, look us up,follow nik Nikki on all social
medias me as well, and we'lllook forward to seeing you all
next week.
Yeah, bye, bye.