December 1, 2025 • 12 mins
Rates snap back after a brief dip as Fed chair chatter shakes bonds, then we map a realistic path toward a 5.9% average in 2026 and what that means for refi math. We close with a clean business planning framework, smarter social posting, and seasonal timing for potential rate relief.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_01 (01:12):
December 1st.
Welcome to the Monday marketupdate.
Nikki, how are you doing today?
SPEAKER_00 (01:19):
I'm doing good.
I cannot believe it's alreadyDecember.
I know that we say that everyyear it goes by, flies by, but
it's just like I feel like thisyear has gone by so fast.
But regardless of that, uh,let's kind of get into it.
So late last week we saw a nicedip in interest rates down into
the mid to upper five range.
That was temporary,unfortunately, as of this
(01:40):
morning.
Interest rates are back up intothat high five, low six range.
Reason for that is Trumpannounced that he has picked his
new Fed chair for next year,once Powell is retired in March,
I believe.
And he hasn't announced who itis yet.
So I I don't I can't imagine himwaiting in a couple of weeks,
two, three weeks to announce it.
So I'm sure we'll hear about itnext week.
(02:01):
But it kind of threw that markthe market into a bit of a tizzy
this morning, and so which iswhy we're seeing higher interest
rates.
Those should settle back downthough throughout the week once
we hear more announcements andonce the bond market kind of
just chills over it.
So yeah, initially it was it waskind of an upset to the market,
but we're not locking anythingin today.
We're waiting, we're floating.
So hopefully those interestrates will come back down.
(02:22):
I did a little, I wanted to talka little bit about predictions
for mortgage interest rates for2026.
So as inflation starts to comedown or as it starts to
stabilize, and as the Fedcontinues to cut those more
interest rates on their end, weshould see a dip in mortgage
interest rates.
Most experts, including FannieMae and MBS Highway, are saying
(02:44):
that mortgage interest ratescould be on average 5.9
throughout 2026.
So what does that mean inreality?
On average means anything fromthe high-risk loans all the way
down to like a VA loan, whichtends to have lower interest
rates.
With that being said, so thataverages out to 5.9, which
translates to conventional loansbeing in the mid to low fives.
So that's kind of thepredictions throughout 2026.
(03:06):
That's good for anybody who hasan interest rate above 6.875-ish
for possible refinancial optionsin 2026.
Uh, especially anyone over 7%will have some good options if
those interest rates come true.
The probability of thathappening is about 65 to 70%.
So we should see some reliefthat we've been long awaiting.
There are a few extremistexperts that are saying that
(03:29):
we're gonna see mortgageinterest rates into the fours.
I mean, these guys are kind of,you know, really extreme.
And so I wouldn't say that'sgonna happen, but we should see
some good improvement over thenext year.
If you think about this, thesame time last year when we were
talking about what 2025 wasgonna look like, interest rates
were in the upper sevens, and wewere hoping to get them down
(03:50):
into the fives, and we didaccomplish that this year.
So hopefully we'll get them downinto that mid to low five range,
if not the upper fours, whichwould be crazy.
But hopefully the predictionsare coming true.
And you know, these experts areusually spot on with things as
they start to see the economicsituation improve.
So yeah, that's kind of wherethings are headed.
So also, I just wanted to talkabout business planning for 2026
(04:15):
and just some reminders andhelpful tips that I use when I
go and I business plan.
I do a reflective look atreferral partners and people who
I have received business fromover the last year and use that
to predict my business movingforward.
So if I was very client-heavyreferral-based, I'm gonna use
that same, you know, idea goingforward in 2026 on what was
(04:39):
successful.
I'm also gonna look at thethings that didn't work.
So, for example, I do I do a lotof TikToking, a lot of you know
social media stuff that doestend to peripherally bring in
business.
So, in other words, it gets meout there, it gets, you know,
people recognizing me, seeing meon the daily um through their
feeds and things of that nature.
Does it directly bring mebusiness?
Not very often, but definitelyperipherally.
(05:01):
And the idea of if people arethinking about moving and they
they continue to see my you knowface on the social media, then
they tend to remember, like, oh,I know her, I should call her,
you know, those types of things.
So just a reminder to take alook back at what has worked in
the past year and use that tomove forward.
And then more importantly, takea look at what hasn't worked and
make sure that you are verydiligent about cutting that out
(05:25):
for the next year.
Because if you've done itsomething for an entire year and
it hasn't really produced muchresults, there's no reason to
continue to try to keep going.
So this is the time to predictyour business for next year.
This is the time to, you know,just make sure everything is
solid and make sure you have aplan and make sure that um
you've cut out the bad and keptthe good.
SPEAKER_01 (05:47):
100%.
I love that reminder.
And I think sometimes people canquit too early.
However, that's a greatreminder.
If it's been a year, that's agood 12-month period where you
can reflect back and see if itworked and it didn't.
And I've also viewed and seenagents and people just in
(06:08):
general just get stuck becausethey're doing it now.
And I love habits and I'm allabout routine and I'm all about
repetition, repetition,repetition to get there.
However, on the flip side ofthat, if it's not working, then
you you can absolutely giveyourself permission to cut it
and try something new.
(06:30):
And the beautiful thing is Iknow a lot of agents are going
to like chat GPT for ideas,yeah, really honing it in and
getting a different plantogether or distant work, what
is working.
So know that that's out there.
So, no, that's that's a hugereminder, and I love that.
And yes, business planning tothe season.
(06:51):
I actually had one I wassupposed to go to today, but it
got postponed with weather,which I thought the roads were
fine, but that's besides younever can tell in Minnesota, I'm
telling you.
No, right, and across likedifferent counties, it gets
completely different.
So I get it, yes, very much so.
Um, but yeah, so it is puttingthe plans together.
And so what and what I lovedwhat you said about TikTok and
(07:14):
just social media in general,what came to mind as you were
talking is that you know, itsome over the long haul, you did
get business from that, but andit's also the the level you show
up and how you show up.
I when I refer you, I also saycheck her out here.
So it is a way to vet you.
(07:35):
So, like me or anyone, or ifyou're showing up on social
media, think about that becausethat's the first place people go
now.
Absolutely and just see ifyou're legit or not.
And you are obviously a thousandpercent legit after someone you
know were were to look at you ifthey're referred to you, it's a
no-brainer because of athousand.
SPEAKER_00 (07:55):
I appreciate that.
Yeah, yeah.
And I will say that, you know, Ieven did have um in looking at
my business plan, I did havesome things that didn't work at
all last year.
So I tried to start like anetworking group down in
Arizona, you know, for myselfand like just different business
owners around and the west sidebecause that's really where all
the new families are movinginto.
And so I thought, oh, what agreat opportunity to start this
Facebook page, and then I couldstart this networking group and
(08:16):
we can meet once a month andblah, blah, blah.
Did not work at all.
I barely got any traction withit.
So I'm dumping it, you know,it's fine.
It didn't work.
I'll use other networkingopportunities.
SPEAKER_01 (08:26):
Yeah, and now that space that's open with just you
have to think about it, planabout it, drive there, do it.
I mean, now what can you do withthat time?
So that's an amazing gift thatyou give yourself for sure.
SPEAKER_00 (08:37):
If it's not absolutely figure it out, that's
yeah, permission to say goodbye.
SPEAKER_01 (08:43):
And this brought up something else that I've been
noticing as well.
And I know it was controversialback in in COVID with agents.
And if you have a license, youknow, you're held to a different
standard.
And so with social media, wewere, you know, not to be
posting, or you could get finddifferent things that were
(09:05):
controversial or could be viewedas misinformation.
So not even knowing where that'sat, but I just I've been
watching online a little bit.
I've actually stayed off quite abit, which I I know part of my
plan.
I I I need to get back on thereand do the things, but just
beware that as you're posting,and this does not apply to you,
(09:27):
Nikki, because you're phenomenalonline.
You may be attracting andrepelling people.
So I just really try to stayneutral.
Like if you were to go on myFacebook page, I don't think
you'd be able to tell, you know,my stance politically, you know,
where I where where I go or whatI do.
And just there's such a pendulumof swinging, like you're either
(09:52):
here or you're there, and it'sjust a lot.
So as you're putting yourbusiness plan together, and if
social media is one of those, ifyou want to be loud and proud
about anything in your life, doit.
Uh, but have a personal accountpotentially or or separate the
two if you are very outspoken,whether it be political or you
(10:13):
have something, you know, likeeven my husband we went hunting
this weekend, and he's like,Here, if you want to post this
picture.
And I was just like, the lasttime I did, I got some kickback
because not everyone wants tosee a dead deer exactly across
our Facebook page.
So it doesn't have to bepolitical, it can be, you know,
just thinking about things likethat.
So just just as a business ownerand as you know an agent,
(10:37):
especially if you're licensed uhhere in Minnesota, you're held
to a different ethical degree.
So just something that I'maccidentally mentioned.
SPEAKER_00 (10:45):
Absolutely.
And make sure that if you aredoing content based on real
estate or in my case, mortgage,that the information that you
give is factual, or if it isopinion-based, make sure you
state that it's opinion.
You know, in my opinion, this isonly my opinion, you know, those
types of things.
Or try to give pros and consboth sides.
Like, for example, the 50-yearmortgage.
If I'm doing a TikTok on a50-year mortgage, I'm gonna give
(11:05):
the pros and the cons.
And I'm just gonna say, here'swhat it is.
I'm not gonna give my personalopinion.
SPEAKER_01 (11:10):
Yeah, love it.
Good.
Yeah, perfect.
And I I did make a note that Ijust wanted to go back to, you
know, what we're looking at for2026 and the rates potentially
going down a little bit more.
Is there any type of a timelineor any time of the year where
you see these?
I know that usually I remembersomething around March or what
(11:31):
did you?
SPEAKER_00 (11:31):
Yeah, they tend to because of the way that the Fed
meetings go, they those interestrates will tend to lower around
May and June because of thesummer months, because of the
way that the real estate marketrolls through uh throughout most
of the country.
Obviously, Arizona's completelydifferent.
Arizona's hot right now, not somuch in the summer.
Well, hot real estate it's hotin the summer.
So, you know, things slow downin the same way that in
(11:52):
Minnesota, the winter are theslow months, but really
nationwide, the business willstart to pick up in that spring
market, and then we'll we'lltend to see lowering of interest
rates during that time.
Perfect.
SPEAKER_01 (12:02):
Good.
All right, well, as usual,appreciate you and your time.
It is December 1st, so reallythink about where you guys are
going.
Nikki's here to help in any way.
Of course, I am with yourbusiness plan or any questions.
Nikki, shout out where to findyou.
SPEAKER_00 (12:19):
Yes, you can find me on TikTok, Instagram, at
mortgages at MN from A fromsorry, at mortgages from Mn to A
Z.
Or you can find me on Facebookat Nikki Erickson or at N Dirk
Kavnik Mortgage.
SPEAKER_01 (12:32):
Yeah.
And if there's any topics youwant us to cover on the Monday
Market update, wherever you'reat listening to this, whether it
be YouTube, on the podcast, oron social media, comment.
And if there is a subscribe or alike or a follow button, do that
for us.
And we'll see you next week.
All right, bye, everyone.
Bye.
December 1st.
Welcome to the Monday marketupdate.
Nikki, how are you doing today?
SPEAKER_00 (01:19):
I'm doing good.
I cannot believe it's alreadyDecember.
I know that we say that everyyear it goes by, flies by, but
it's just like I feel like thisyear has gone by so fast.
But regardless of that, uh,let's kind of get into it.
So late last week we saw a nicedip in interest rates down into
the mid to upper five range.
That was temporary,unfortunately, as of this
(01:40):
morning.
Interest rates are back up intothat high five, low six range.
Reason for that is Trumpannounced that he has picked his
new Fed chair for next year,once Powell is retired in March,
I believe.
And he hasn't announced who itis yet.
So I I don't I can't imagine himwaiting in a couple of weeks,
two, three weeks to announce it.
So I'm sure we'll hear about itnext week.
(02:01):
But it kind of threw that markthe market into a bit of a tizzy
this morning, and so which iswhy we're seeing higher interest
rates.
Those should settle back downthough throughout the week once
we hear more announcements andonce the bond market kind of
just chills over it.
So yeah, initially it was it waskind of an upset to the market,
but we're not locking anythingin today.
We're waiting, we're floating.
So hopefully those interestrates will come back down.
(02:22):
I did a little, I wanted to talka little bit about predictions
for mortgage interest rates for2026.
So as inflation starts to comedown or as it starts to
stabilize, and as the Fedcontinues to cut those more
interest rates on their end, weshould see a dip in mortgage
interest rates.
Most experts, including FannieMae and MBS Highway, are saying
(02:44):
that mortgage interest ratescould be on average 5.9
throughout 2026.
So what does that mean inreality?
On average means anything fromthe high-risk loans all the way
down to like a VA loan, whichtends to have lower interest
rates.
With that being said, so thataverages out to 5.9, which
translates to conventional loansbeing in the mid to low fives.
So that's kind of thepredictions throughout 2026.
(03:06):
That's good for anybody who hasan interest rate above 6.875-ish
for possible refinancial optionsin 2026.
Uh, especially anyone over 7%will have some good options if
those interest rates come true.
The probability of thathappening is about 65 to 70%.
So we should see some reliefthat we've been long awaiting.
There are a few extremistexperts that are saying that
(03:29):
we're gonna see mortgageinterest rates into the fours.
I mean, these guys are kind of,you know, really extreme.
And so I wouldn't say that'sgonna happen, but we should see
some good improvement over thenext year.
If you think about this, thesame time last year when we were
talking about what 2025 wasgonna look like, interest rates
were in the upper sevens, and wewere hoping to get them down
(03:50):
into the fives, and we didaccomplish that this year.
So hopefully we'll get them downinto that mid to low five range,
if not the upper fours, whichwould be crazy.
But hopefully the predictionsare coming true.
And you know, these experts areusually spot on with things as
they start to see the economicsituation improve.
So yeah, that's kind of wherethings are headed.
So also, I just wanted to talkabout business planning for 2026
(04:15):
and just some reminders andhelpful tips that I use when I
go and I business plan.
I do a reflective look atreferral partners and people who
I have received business fromover the last year and use that
to predict my business movingforward.
So if I was very client-heavyreferral-based, I'm gonna use
that same, you know, idea goingforward in 2026 on what was
(04:39):
successful.
I'm also gonna look at thethings that didn't work.
So, for example, I do I do a lotof TikToking, a lot of you know
social media stuff that doestend to peripherally bring in
business.
So, in other words, it gets meout there, it gets, you know,
people recognizing me, seeing meon the daily um through their
feeds and things of that nature.
Does it directly bring mebusiness?
Not very often, but definitelyperipherally.
(05:01):
And the idea of if people arethinking about moving and they
they continue to see my you knowface on the social media, then
they tend to remember, like, oh,I know her, I should call her,
you know, those types of things.
So just a reminder to take alook back at what has worked in
the past year and use that tomove forward.
And then more importantly, takea look at what hasn't worked and
make sure that you are verydiligent about cutting that out
(05:25):
for the next year.
Because if you've done itsomething for an entire year and
it hasn't really produced muchresults, there's no reason to
continue to try to keep going.
So this is the time to predictyour business for next year.
This is the time to, you know,just make sure everything is
solid and make sure you have aplan and make sure that um
you've cut out the bad and keptthe good.
SPEAKER_01 (05:47):
100%.
I love that reminder.
And I think sometimes people canquit too early.
However, that's a greatreminder.
If it's been a year, that's agood 12-month period where you
can reflect back and see if itworked and it didn't.
And I've also viewed and seenagents and people just in
(06:08):
general just get stuck becausethey're doing it now.
And I love habits and I'm allabout routine and I'm all about
repetition, repetition,repetition to get there.
However, on the flip side ofthat, if it's not working, then
you you can absolutely giveyourself permission to cut it
and try something new.
(06:30):
And the beautiful thing is Iknow a lot of agents are going
to like chat GPT for ideas,yeah, really honing it in and
getting a different plantogether or distant work, what
is working.
So know that that's out there.
So, no, that's that's a hugereminder, and I love that.
And yes, business planning tothe season.
(06:51):
I actually had one I wassupposed to go to today, but it
got postponed with weather,which I thought the roads were
fine, but that's besides younever can tell in Minnesota, I'm
telling you.
No, right, and across likedifferent counties, it gets
completely different.
So I get it, yes, very much so.
Um, but yeah, so it is puttingthe plans together.
And so what and what I lovedwhat you said about TikTok and
(07:14):
just social media in general,what came to mind as you were
talking is that you know, itsome over the long haul, you did
get business from that, but andit's also the the level you show
up and how you show up.
I when I refer you, I also saycheck her out here.
So it is a way to vet you.
(07:35):
So, like me or anyone, or ifyou're showing up on social
media, think about that becausethat's the first place people go
now.
Absolutely and just see ifyou're legit or not.
And you are obviously a thousandpercent legit after someone you
know were were to look at you ifthey're referred to you, it's a
no-brainer because of athousand.
SPEAKER_00 (07:55):
I appreciate that.
Yeah, yeah.
And I will say that, you know, Ieven did have um in looking at
my business plan, I did havesome things that didn't work at
all last year.
So I tried to start like anetworking group down in
Arizona, you know, for myselfand like just different business
owners around and the west sidebecause that's really where all
the new families are movinginto.
And so I thought, oh, what agreat opportunity to start this
Facebook page, and then I couldstart this networking group and
(08:16):
we can meet once a month andblah, blah, blah.
Did not work at all.
I barely got any traction withit.
So I'm dumping it, you know,it's fine.
It didn't work.
I'll use other networkingopportunities.
SPEAKER_01 (08:26):
Yeah, and now that space that's open with just you
have to think about it, planabout it, drive there, do it.
I mean, now what can you do withthat time?
So that's an amazing gift thatyou give yourself for sure.
SPEAKER_00 (08:37):
If it's not absolutely figure it out, that's
yeah, permission to say goodbye.
SPEAKER_01 (08:43):
And this brought up something else that I've been
noticing as well.
And I know it was controversialback in in COVID with agents.
And if you have a license, youknow, you're held to a different
standard.
And so with social media, wewere, you know, not to be
posting, or you could get finddifferent things that were
(09:05):
controversial or could be viewedas misinformation.
So not even knowing where that'sat, but I just I've been
watching online a little bit.
I've actually stayed off quite abit, which I I know part of my
plan.
I I I need to get back on thereand do the things, but just
beware that as you're posting,and this does not apply to you,
(09:27):
Nikki, because you're phenomenalonline.
You may be attracting andrepelling people.
So I just really try to stayneutral.
Like if you were to go on myFacebook page, I don't think
you'd be able to tell, you know,my stance politically, you know,
where I where where I go or whatI do.
And just there's such a pendulumof swinging, like you're either
(09:52):
here or you're there, and it'sjust a lot.
So as you're putting yourbusiness plan together, and if
social media is one of those, ifyou want to be loud and proud
about anything in your life, doit.
Uh, but have a personal accountpotentially or or separate the
two if you are very outspoken,whether it be political or you
(10:13):
have something, you know, likeeven my husband we went hunting
this weekend, and he's like,Here, if you want to post this
picture.
And I was just like, the lasttime I did, I got some kickback
because not everyone wants tosee a dead deer exactly across
our Facebook page.
So it doesn't have to bepolitical, it can be, you know,
just thinking about things likethat.
So just just as a business ownerand as you know an agent,
(10:37):
especially if you're licensed uhhere in Minnesota, you're held
to a different ethical degree.
So just something that I'maccidentally mentioned.
SPEAKER_00 (10:45):
Absolutely.
And make sure that if you aredoing content based on real
estate or in my case, mortgage,that the information that you
give is factual, or if it isopinion-based, make sure you
state that it's opinion.
You know, in my opinion, this isonly my opinion, you know, those
types of things.
Or try to give pros and consboth sides.
Like, for example, the 50-yearmortgage.
If I'm doing a TikTok on a50-year mortgage, I'm gonna give
(11:05):
the pros and the cons.
And I'm just gonna say, here'swhat it is.
I'm not gonna give my personalopinion.
SPEAKER_01 (11:10):
Yeah, love it.
Good.
Yeah, perfect.
And I I did make a note that Ijust wanted to go back to, you
know, what we're looking at for2026 and the rates potentially
going down a little bit more.
Is there any type of a timelineor any time of the year where
you see these?
I know that usually I remembersomething around March or what
(11:31):
did you?
SPEAKER_00 (11:31):
Yeah, they tend to because of the way that the Fed
meetings go, they those interestrates will tend to lower around
May and June because of thesummer months, because of the
way that the real estate marketrolls through uh throughout most
of the country.
Obviously, Arizona's completelydifferent.
Arizona's hot right now, not somuch in the summer.
Well, hot real estate it's hotin the summer.
So, you know, things slow downin the same way that in
(11:52):
Minnesota, the winter are theslow months, but really
nationwide, the business willstart to pick up in that spring
market, and then we'll we'lltend to see lowering of interest
rates during that time.
Perfect.
SPEAKER_01 (12:02):
Good.
All right, well, as usual,appreciate you and your time.
It is December 1st, so reallythink about where you guys are
going.
Nikki's here to help in any way.
Of course, I am with yourbusiness plan or any questions.
Nikki, shout out where to findyou.
SPEAKER_00 (12:19):
Yes, you can find me on TikTok, Instagram, at
mortgages at MN from A fromsorry, at mortgages from Mn to A
Z.
Or you can find me on Facebookat Nikki Erickson or at N Dirk
Kavnik Mortgage.
SPEAKER_01 (12:32):
Yeah.
And if there's any topics youwant us to cover on the Monday
Market update, wherever you'reat listening to this, whether it
be YouTube, on the podcast, oron social media, comment.
And if there is a subscribe or alike or a follow button, do that
for us.
And we'll see you next week.
All right, bye, everyone.
Bye.
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