Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
All right, welcome to
the Monday Market Update.
It is July 21st and, nikki, I'mso excited to hear from you
today.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Yes, yes, it's been a
couple weeks, a little bit, you
know, and kind of somevolatility that's been happening
in the market over the pastcouple weeks.
Last week we saw interest ratesincrease over the you know, fed
meeting and uncertainty withthings happening from an
interest rate standpoint andfrom a tariff standpoint.
In fact that has kind of putthe market in kind of a rumble
(00:30):
up and down from an interestrate standpoint.
So all last week we sawinterest rates kind of creeping
up and now today we're startingto see and at the end of last
week we started to seecorrection and today we're
seeing even more correction,which is great news.
So we're back down into thehigh to mid to high sixes, which
is great news.
So we're back down into thehigh to mid to high sixes.
Last week we were up pushingtowards seven.
So that was kind of based onmarket.
We're seeing, just in general,a lot of responsiveness from a
(00:52):
bond market to all thevolatility that's been happening
in the market and it'sresponding more so than it had
been in the past.
So we're seeing a lot ofdifferent ranges from interest
rate standpoint and a lot ofeverything in the market really
affecting that bond rate.
Normally we'll say, ok, maybethere's some news happenings
that will happen and it'llaffect the bond market minimally
(01:12):
, but we're seeing more and moreeffect on those bonds as we
move through different newsstories and things of that.
So I want to get into a couplemajor things that I haven't
really been able to talk to overthe past couple weeks that have
been happening, that havestarted to affect these interest
rates, that are going to besignificant not only now but in
the next coming months.
So first and foremost is thekind of media and attitude
(01:37):
surrounding Jerome Powell as theFed chair.
So Trump has been very adamantabout thinking that Powell is
too late in dropping interestrates.
The reason for that is or whatwe think the most reason for
that is is because he thinkshe's too conservative.
The US has debt that they needto refinance in August.
If we don't get those interestrates down or the Fed interest
(01:59):
rate down on that debt, we'regoing to have to refinance that
debt at a higher interest rate,which is not going to be great
from an inflation standpoint andnot going to be great for the
economy.
So one of Trump's goals hasbeen to get that Fed interest
rate down so that the refinanceof the debt that the US has
doesn't have to go into thosehigher interest rates.
Powell is being very, very, very, very, very conservative.
(02:23):
About a year ago, a year and ahalf ago, he said we're not
going to lower interest ratesuntil we reach the inflation of
2%.
He said it, he went on recordand then dropped the interest
rate right before the election,so to show some sort of progress
.
So it's supposed to be thisnon-partisan thing, but he drops
(02:45):
the interest rate right beforethe election and then refuses to
drop them since the results ofthe election came in and Trump
has been in office, even thoughthat inflation has gotten down
to 2.1, 2.3, 2.1.
He's just sitting there at that2% benchmark and will not lower
them until he reaches it.
The question is okay, now, if wereach that 2% which you know,
(03:09):
suspicion is that we will he mayor may not lower interest rates
again because he just is, forwhatever reason, extremely
conservative on that.
With that being said, he's nowbeen referred to the Department
of Justice for investigation offraud and some other criminal
activities associated withthings that he's done from an
interest rate standpoint.
So we don't know if that youknow.
(03:32):
I mean, it seems awfullysuspicious that he would be
referred for this.
You know, right around the timethat we're supposed to be
refinancing this debt and allthis stuff.
So there's a little bit of likedrama 101 going on with Powell
and the Fed and Trump and thegoals of the administration and
things like that.
So it'll be interesting to seehow that plays out.
I don't have an expert opinionon whether interest rates should
be lower.
I always want them lower, ofcourse, you know, and that
benefits, you know, everybodythat I help purchase homes.
(03:54):
So for me it's like, yeah,let's lower these interest rates
, you know, and things like that.
But I am certainly not aneconomic expert.
I can only speak to you know,from a bond standpoint and from
a mortgage interest ratestandpoint and say, yeah, you
know, I agree, let's get thesethings lowered.
Inflation is under control.
We can get these you knowinterest rates lowered and start
really helping people you knowget into homes again and really
helping, especially thosefirst-time homebuyers who you
(04:17):
know need lower interest ratesin order to afford the monthly
payments on these homes.
So that's kind of drama 101.
On the flip side, I hadmentioned this a little bit last
week but I wanted to dive in alittle bit further onto the
Vantage Score 4.0.
So Fannie and Freddie use FICOscores in order to determine
mortgage qualified.
So TransUnion, equifax andExperian we take the middle of
(04:40):
those three scores and we usethat for mortgage qualifying
purposes.
Fico concentrates on creditcards, student loans, long-term
debt like mortgages, car loans,things of that nature that are
going to be debts that report tocredit that you pay each month.
Fannie and Freddie just said,okay, we're actually going to
start accepting what's called aVantage Score 4.0.
(05:02):
Vantage Score 4.0 is different,is the same.
It reports the same thing asFICO does, but it also reports
rent payments, utility payments,cell phone payments and your
daily activity payments or yourmonthly activity payments.
To determine a score forqualifying purposes activity
(05:24):
payments.
To determine a score forqualifying purposes.
Fannie and Freddie are sayingwell, you know, just because you
had a credit card and let's sayyou went to Kohl's, but you
know you're, you're a lot ofclothes for your kids' school
clothes and you got the newKohl's card for the discount and
then forgot to pay it, youshouldn't be penalized long-term
for that because you've doneall these other things correctly
, like pay your rent on time orpay your utility bills and pay
(05:46):
your cell phone and do all thesethings.
That are the daily and themonthly living expenses that you
should get credit for asbehavior on how you can pay back
long-term debt.
And so those scores areprobably arguably a more
accurate statement of how you'regoing to behave from a mortgage
standpoint than just your FICOscore.
(06:06):
So now they're saying, okay,we're going to accept these
Vantage 4.0 scores, which is allfine and dandy to say.
However, if you think aboutmortgage software, you think
about automated underwriting,you think about all these
automated things that we havegoing into a mortgage already.
They have to take that vantagescore and the platform of it and
all the things that go into itfrom an algorithm standpoint,
(06:28):
and the data, and plug that intotheir automated systems.
So not only do we have to knowhow are the automated systems
going to respond to this from atechnological, purely IT
standpoint.
Also we have to know okay, ifyou put less than 20% down on a
home, you have mortgageinsurance, are the mortgage
insurance companies going tocover you for using a Vantage
(06:50):
score versus a FICO score?
And is there going to be apoint in time where we're going,
okay, we need to know what theVantage score is and know what
the FICO score is and kind ofblend the two together to get a
mortgage insurance payment orfactor.
So there's all these unansweredquestions that have to do with
VantageScore.
The other last piece of it isthe investors, so in other words
(07:13):
, the servicers who buymortgage-backed securities,
things of that nature.
They're very good at pricing orgiving you an interest rate for
your scenario based on yourFICO score.
680 is obviously a higherinterest rate than 700, higher
interest rate than 720, and etcetera.
And so the Vantage score goeson a completely different
(07:34):
scoring system on a completelydifferent scoring system.
So are those investors going tobe able to plug in that Vantage
score and say, okay, thisshould be rated ABCD based on
the interest rate based on yourVantage score?
So the investors are goingwhat's going to motivate me to
buy a mortgage-backed securitywith a Vantage score versus a
FICO score and can I adjust forthe interest rate for it?
(07:55):
And so it's going to be.
There's a lot of unknowns rightnow with that Vantage score.
However, in my personal opinion, I think it's probably for a
lot of people, especiallyfirst-time homebuyers, it's a
more accurate representation ofhow they're going to pay their
debt long-term.
A lot of people millennials anddown from a generational
standpoint, I'm not excludinganybody else, but I'm just
saying, generally speaking,millennials and generations on
(08:18):
down they don't understandcredit.
A lot of them don't.
They don't understand, you know, how to use credit, what it
takes, and there's no one thereto really teach them, and so
they just kind of have to learnit or they're taught from their
parents or whatever that case is, and so they don't really
understand how to build thatFICO score, whereas you know,
the older people, oldergeneration, they'd be either not
known and learn from theirmistakes, or just you know, know
(08:39):
and are not, you know, canunderstand it, and so it's more
advantageous for the you know,millennial on down generation to
have that vantage score and beable to qualify for a home.
So a lot of things likehappening with that.
We're following along the story, trying to figure out you know
what's gonna, how it's, what'sgoing to happen, things of that
nature.
And then the other, the lastquestion on it is will FHA and
(09:03):
VA accept advantage score?
Because right now it's onlyFannie and Freddie from a
conventional standpoint, andwhat does that score need to be?
We don't know.
So a lot of things to come ondown the line, a lot of more
learning for me so I'm alwayslearning and a lot of new things
changing, and so I'm justtrying to pay attention to those
changes.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
Yeah, no, absolutely,
and it's all new.
So now they're just trying tofigure out.
Is there any type of a timeline?
Is this already in place, orwhen will you think it will be
Correct?
Speaker 2 (09:28):
So, Fannie and
Freddie said we'll start
accepting them August 1st.
Okay, so whatever that meansfor them, you know it's like,
yeah, that's great that you'regoing to accept them, but how
are we going to implement thisinto the industry worldwide?
It's like saying, hey, we'regoing to go from paper files to
electronic files.
It's like you I don't know anyindustry that transition from
paper to electronic was a longtime and so I have a feeling
(09:51):
it'll be, you know, at least sixmonths before we can figure out
how all the working parts movethrough that Fannie Mae system.
Speaker 1 (09:59):
Yeah, and if like to
your point of FHA, we'll follow
suit and see what that lookslike.
So interesting Things arealways changing.
Isn't that amazing?
And I that's why, again, I loveshowing up here every Monday
with you, because I canguarantee you many agents have
no idea what you're talkingabout.
Like I'll go out and I'll talkto 10 and I'll ask them about
(10:21):
the Vantage 4.0 and they'll belike what?
Speaker 2 (10:24):
So yeah, yeah, I mean
, honestly, I had heard it was a
thing in my own personal I mean, I'm pretty involved, obviously
involved in the mortgageindustry on the daily and you
know, do my research and do alot of like market conditions
and I had heard about theVantage 4.0, but I thought to
myself, man, it'll never be athing.
And now it's actually a thing.
Speaker 1 (10:40):
So I was wrong, yep,
yep.
And yeah, that's a greatreminder.
And I was talking with anothernew agent this morning and I'm
not sure if it's across allstates, but at least for
Minnesota.
If you're watching this, youknow I'm not sure what forms
changes are happening, but Iknow one year I was on vacation,
I pulled up to write a purchaseagreement and of course
(11:01):
everything had changed.
It was like August 2.
I'm like, oh my gosh.
So I had to take time andfigure it out.
So just know, check around andsee what forms are changing,
because at Minnesota they changeat the beginning of August.
So that's a great reminder aswell that I'm on calls with
(11:25):
agents across the country andeven in different countries.
But the market is different indifferent sectors in different
states of our country.
So if you're a newer agent orif you're not a full-time agent
or you're just not sure what'shappening, if you're going to be
listing a home or if you'rehelping a buyer, it's really
(11:45):
important to check in with yourbroker or if you have a mentor
or team lead or someone withinyour brokerage, and find out and
get a pulse of the market.
Nikki is licensed in many, manystates as well, so she would
have that for you if you needthat, and I have business
partners in every state as well,so I can find someone if you
(12:06):
need someone to understand alittle bit more.
But I know in Minnesota it'ssoftening a little bit, but I've
been on calls where in otherstates, agents on these calls
have been agents for over 20years and they've never had such
a tough market.
So, again, it just depends andit's really important for you
strategically from that point ofview if you, if and when you
(12:29):
owe your client fiduciary duties, that you are up to date and
you really, really, reallyunderstand what's happening
locally in your market.
Yeah, absolutely yeah.
So that's my soapbox for today,but I think it's really
important because you know ifyou're just taking listings or
throwing a buyer in your car andrunning around and just you
(12:51):
know hoping that something'sgoing to happen and you really
don't understand, you're doingeveryone a disservice in the
whole transaction and, onaverage, over 40 people touch a
transaction.
So it's important that you knowwhat you're doing and if you
have questions, see Nikki or Ior someone in your local market
for sure.
Good, all right, well, you know.
(13:14):
Tell them where to find youonline on social.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
So you can find me on
at mortgages from MN to AZ on
Instagram and on TikTok and onFacebook at either Kevnick Group
or under my personal name,Nikki Erickson.
Speaker 1 (13:28):
Perfect, and I am
Angie Gerber on all social
medias as well.
My email is angiegerber atgmailcom.
If you need anything at allfrom Nikki or I, we are here for
you.
And until next week, go out andsell something and have a good
one.