September 29, 2025 • 13 mins
Markets brace for a volatile week as a possible government shutdown threatens the BLS Jobs Report and nudges the 10-year Treasury, with mortgage rates holding in the low-to-mid sixes after losing recent gains.
We also map a path for no-score buyers using rent, utilities, and payment shock, then close with a reminder to show up fully present for clients.
• shutdown risk and jobs report uncertainty
• how bond moves shape the 10-year and rates
• current pricing in the low-to-mid sixes
• lock vs float strategy for October closings
• qualifying without a credit score using rent and bills
and much much more!
Now's The Time - no matter where you are, where you have been, or your current results - By becoming more aware and following a process, you can have whatever it is you truly desire!
Schedule a free discovery call with me.
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AGCoaching@agcoaching684
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Angie Gerber
angiegerber@gmail.com
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Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_00 (00:02):
Welcome to the Monday market update.
It is September 29th.
How are you today, Nikki?
SPEAKER_01 (00:08):
I'm doing well.
I'm doing well.
I'm happy to, you know, havesome news from for a Monday.
I mean, you know, we're going tohave quite the week this week
when it comes to mortgageinterest rates.
So it'll be interesting to seewhat the bond market does.
So the big looming issue rightnow is the government shutdown
and where that budgeting isgoing to come in and whether or
not the government is going tohave a brief or longer shutdown
(00:32):
or a shutdown at all.
Of course, all of us are hopingthat they can work through some
of the details and not have ashutdown, but it is something
that is pending right now and itis making the market go like
this, like crazy.
So that creates a lot ofvolatility in the market.
The big issue with thispotential shutdown, at least
when it pertains to mortgageinterest rates, has to do with
(00:52):
if there is a governmentshutdown, the BLS Jobs Report
will not come out on Friday.
Now, as a reminder, the BLS JobsReport gives an indicator of
health in the economy and has ahuge influence on the 10-year
treasury bond, i.e., mortgageinterest rates.
Whenever we talk about agovernment shutdown or a looming
(01:12):
government shutdown, the bondmarket actually kind of likes it
and starts to lower down that10-year treasury bond, whereby
mortgage interest rates willstart to lower just a slight
bit.
We're not talking by a lot here,but we're talking about just
like a little bit of therecovery that we like to see.
Now, when that, but it'sdifferent this time because of
that jobs report that's supposedto be coming out on Friday.
(01:34):
If we get a favorable jobsreport on Friday, that's good
news.
We will see more improvement inthe market.
If not so much, then we're goingto start seeing inflation tick
up a little bit, which is nevera good sign.
So a lot of disagreement in theFed right now, too, about what
to do about their interest rateas well.
You have half the voting memberstalking about needing to lower
that rate even more.
(01:54):
And then you have another partof uh the voting members who are
a little bit more what we callhawkish and say, I don't know, I
think we're going to, you know,we need to wait, we need to
wait, we need to wait.
So there's going to be more onthat, obviously, to come later.
But as of this week, it is goingto be an extremely volatile
week.
So what my job is now this weekis to make sure that I am
(02:15):
watching and waiting and seeingwhat's happening in the market,
making sure that clients that Ido have that are not locked
right now, who have been kind offloating down with October close
times to kind of go, okay,when's the best time to act on
these interest rates?
I'm gonna have to be watchingvery closely for them as well.
We did lose a lot of theimprovement we saw from the Fed
interest rate cut.
(02:35):
Um, we lost a lot of thatimprovement.
So we are sitting in the low tomid-sixes right now.
We aren't really touching thefives, depending on the program.
So it's one of those thingswhere we're just, like I said,
waiting and seeing.
So they're telling us to justchill out for a minute.
And I know it's gonna lookscary, but just to wait from a
locking standpoint.
So just some information that'shappening this week.
(02:56):
Speaking of locking and speakingof borrowers and different
positions that they can be in,I've had actually two clients
come to me for mortgage loansthat do not have credit scores.
Surprisingly enough, you can geta mortgage loan without credit
scores.
So I'm not sure if we had talkedabout this topic already, but I
wanted to bring it up becauseit's it's super interesting to
(03:18):
me that you can establish acredit history that's outside
the credit report to allow for aclient to be able to purchase a
home without a score.
When you don't have a score, twothings are in play.
Number one, either you justdon't have any credit history,
you've never applied for credit,or if you, let's say you've had
maybe a credit card, but ithasn't been open long enough, or
(03:39):
it's just one card and therejust isn't enough history there
to create a score, that couldhappen.
The other would be if you haveno open trade lines for a solid
six months, you your creditscore will go away as well.
So if you remember, way, youknow, probably a couple months
ago, I talked about a new typeof credit report called the
vantage score.
(03:59):
And that vantage score,including things like rental
payment history, utility billinghistory, et cetera, in an effort
to make it easier for peoplewithout traditional credit
scores to qualify for mortgageloans.
We haven't fully implementedvantage score.
However, we can still use thesame idea and the same amount of
trade lines and establish apattern of on-time payment
(04:23):
history in order to be able tocreate a 12-month on-time
payment history for the clientthat is sufficient enough for on
for approval from a mortgagestandpoint.
The way we do that, we have tohave 12 months of housing.
That is not, that is not anoption.
If nobody, if they haven't paidrent, there's not much we can
help them with from thatstandpoint.
(04:43):
But if they paid rent on timefor 12 months, and they can show
that either by a lease, averification of employment or a
verification of rent from alandlord, or 12 months of
cancel, like 12-month paymenthistory showing on-time
payments, we can use that as a12-month payment history to
establish housing payments.
And the longer the better.
So if they've had a lease for 24months and they paid on time,
(05:04):
that gives us the ability tosay, okay, the payment shock or
rent versus housing payment, thedifference between those two is
what we calculate called apayment shock.
And if as long as we are under100% on the payment shock, we
can use it as a valid way toapprove them for a mortgage
loan.
That along with we're going tobe looking at monthly payments
(05:25):
that they make on, you know,just to do their daily stuff.
So it could be car insurance,internet service, utilities,
streaming services, believe itor not, subscriptions, medical
insurance, daycare payments.
You know, so if they just hadmedical insurance taken out of
their check every month, thatcounts as a 12-month payment
(05:46):
history.
So there's a lot of flexibilityin when it comes to the to
establishing these credithistories to be able for people
that don't have a credit scorefor one reason or another to get
approved.
Interestingly enough, it used tobe that when we had a no-score
borrower, we had to price theloan.
In other words, give them aninterest rate that reflects that
they don't have a credit score.
(06:07):
That interest rate was often 2to 3% higher than what you would
get if you did establish acredit score.
The old way of going aboutthings is I would work with the
clients for six months toestablish that credit score and
then run the loan that waybecause it would save them a ton
of money on interest.
Now we do not need to do that.
We do not need to give them ahigher interest rate.
In fact, we cannot give them ahigher interest rate just
because they don't have a creditscore.
(06:29):
So that interest rate isactually based on either the
co-borrower's credit score or webase it on a 600 credit score,
which is a little bit on the lowside, but it doesn't affect
pricing nearly as much as itused to.
So there are some avenues thatpeople with no credit and no
credit history, there are someavenues that we can help them
establish that can get them tothe qualifying for mortgage.
(06:51):
Also important to note in thestate of Minnesota and in the
state of Arizona, you canqualify for down payment
assistance without a creditscore.
There's no discrimination fromthat standpoint.
So that's nice too.
SPEAKER_00 (07:02):
Very nice.
All good to know.
And yeah, I think we talkedabout this a while back, but
definitely very, very good torevisit.
And it sounds like there's somenew information as well.
And you know, it's just again,what I tell all the agents that
I coach and mentor, or evenbuyers that I'm coming in
contact with, you know,regardless of if they're they
(07:25):
have a credit score, it's good,it's bad, they don't know, they
don't have one, or they're, youknow, six days out, six months
out, a year or two out.
I always say, I'm so glad we'retalking today.
Now's the perfect time becauseit is, it's a perfect time to
get in contact with you and havethem talk with you, figure out
even if it's a year or two out,we have the gift of time then,
(07:49):
and we can figure all this out.
So it's never ever too early toget in contact with Nikki and
really understand what theroadmap looks like.
And I cannot tell you how manybuyers over the years,
especially first, it was alwaysfirst-time home buyers, they're
like, Yeah, we're probably likenine months to a year out, but
just you know, starting to tostarting the process, just
(08:12):
starting to look and becausethey don't know what they don't
know.
And I get them in contact withyou, and boom, two to three
months later, they're closing ona house because yeah, they were
more than ready, they had noidea.
So uh we do this every day.
So that's where it's reallyimportant that we show up as the
experts.
We have great resources andpeople like Nikki in our corner
(08:32):
that will take it and run in herlane while we're still running
in our lane.
So it's so, so important to haveyou on standby and I appreciate
you so much.
SPEAKER_01 (08:41):
Yeah, absolutely.
And you know, it's it's ironicbecause no credit score is
actually an easier mortgageapproval than low credit.
SPEAKER_00 (08:47):
So love it.
Yeah, let's find them.
Yeah, the screen social mediaposts right there.
So anyone listening to this,really, really think about that.
Because I I know that you'llhave a lot of people intrigued
if you post that and uh I getsome curious, curious people.
SPEAKER_01 (09:04):
Yes, absolutely.
Absolutely.
SPEAKER_00 (09:07):
Well, before we go, I was thinking about you know
what to talk about.
And two things happenedrecently, and so I just want to
bring this to light with agentswhen you're meeting with buyers
or sellers, or you know, helpingpeople with one of the biggest
purchases or sale of the one oftheir biggest assets, is be
(09:28):
present.
I can tell you, there's been afew instances in this past month
where I was with, you know,people that I've known for
either for years or I haven'tseen for years.
And when you're sitting withsomeone and talking with them,
especially about their home,either selling or buying, be
(09:49):
present.
That means, you know, if youtruly don't have an emergency,
which 95% of things aren'temergencies and even
emergencies, don't have yourphone on the table, even if it's
upside down, it just signals tothe other person that they're
not the most important thing,that your phone is in whatever
(10:09):
you may be waiting for.
And if there is a five to 10%emergency that you're just
waiting for, let them know that.
Let them know that's why yourphone is out.
And once it's taken care of,then put it away.
But I just can't tell you howhow distracting it is.
I went out to dinner with somefriends, and I was the only one
out of the four of us thatdidn't take my phone out.
(10:32):
And at one point in timethroughout the dinner, they were
distracted, they were on theirphone, they were texting, like,
oh huh.
Like, I'm like, you know, ittakes a lot for you to even just
get out, go do stuff, be awayfrom your family, and to be
around with people that youknow, you can share very clearly
telling you you're not thatimportant or not the most
(10:53):
important thing, or whoever's onthe other end of their phone, or
when you're looking at someone,you know, be present when you're
looking at them.
Don't be looking around as ifsomething is more important or
interesting behind them, becausethat's also like, what are you
looking at?
What are you looking at?
So I just think as agents and asprofessionals showing up in this
(11:14):
industry and for our clients,our customers, our prospects,
there should be a certain waythat you behave and act.
And I just wanted to remindeveryone out there, because I
know a lot of people aren'taware, and we just get so into
ourselves and into our phonesthat I uh it was on my heart to
share today.
So I just want to bring it up.
SPEAKER_01 (11:33):
I always say nothing is gonna change my business in
two hours.
There is not one thing, eveneven someone sitting at a
clothing table, there is nothingthat's going to derail my
business in two hours.
It's just never gonna happen.
So giving someone the time ofday or giving someone two hours
is not gonna absolutely doanything from a damaging
standpoint to the business or toanyone that needs to get a hold
of me.
SPEAKER_00 (11:53):
I love that.
That's so, so, so great to hear.
I knew you acted, I knew you youwere like that because that's
how you absolutely show up.
But there are agents and thereare people out there that need
to be reminded.
And my family had to remind me,you know, sometimes you treat
the people closest to you notquite the best as you do
absolute strangers.
So even think about that.
(12:14):
And I know um my coachimplemented No Distractions
dinner with with his family,which I think is pretty
phenomenal in a world where wecan just feel so disconnected.
So I'll get off my soapbox, butjust have to bring that up
today.
SPEAKER_01 (12:28):
All right, that sounds good.
Yeah, that's always good adviceand always a good reminder.
Perfect.
SPEAKER_00 (12:32):
All right, Nikki.
Well, appreciate you.
Thanks for showing up as usual,and we'll see you all back here
next week.
Bye, guys.
Bye.
Welcome to the Monday market update.
It is September 29th.
How are you today, Nikki?
SPEAKER_01 (00:08):
I'm doing well.
I'm doing well.
I'm happy to, you know, havesome news from for a Monday.
I mean, you know, we're going tohave quite the week this week
when it comes to mortgageinterest rates.
So it'll be interesting to seewhat the bond market does.
So the big looming issue rightnow is the government shutdown
and where that budgeting isgoing to come in and whether or
not the government is going tohave a brief or longer shutdown
(00:32):
or a shutdown at all.
Of course, all of us are hopingthat they can work through some
of the details and not have ashutdown, but it is something
that is pending right now and itis making the market go like
this, like crazy.
So that creates a lot ofvolatility in the market.
The big issue with thispotential shutdown, at least
when it pertains to mortgageinterest rates, has to do with
(00:52):
if there is a governmentshutdown, the BLS Jobs Report
will not come out on Friday.
Now, as a reminder, the BLS JobsReport gives an indicator of
health in the economy and has ahuge influence on the 10-year
treasury bond, i.e., mortgageinterest rates.
Whenever we talk about agovernment shutdown or a looming
(01:12):
government shutdown, the bondmarket actually kind of likes it
and starts to lower down that10-year treasury bond, whereby
mortgage interest rates willstart to lower just a slight
bit.
We're not talking by a lot here,but we're talking about just
like a little bit of therecovery that we like to see.
Now, when that, but it'sdifferent this time because of
that jobs report that's supposedto be coming out on Friday.
(01:34):
If we get a favorable jobsreport on Friday, that's good
news.
We will see more improvement inthe market.
If not so much, then we're goingto start seeing inflation tick
up a little bit, which is nevera good sign.
So a lot of disagreement in theFed right now, too, about what
to do about their interest rateas well.
You have half the voting memberstalking about needing to lower
that rate even more.
(01:54):
And then you have another partof uh the voting members who are
a little bit more what we callhawkish and say, I don't know, I
think we're going to, you know,we need to wait, we need to
wait, we need to wait.
So there's going to be more onthat, obviously, to come later.
But as of this week, it is goingto be an extremely volatile
week.
So what my job is now this weekis to make sure that I am
(02:15):
watching and waiting and seeingwhat's happening in the market,
making sure that clients that Ido have that are not locked
right now, who have been kind offloating down with October close
times to kind of go, okay,when's the best time to act on
these interest rates?
I'm gonna have to be watchingvery closely for them as well.
We did lose a lot of theimprovement we saw from the Fed
interest rate cut.
(02:35):
Um, we lost a lot of thatimprovement.
So we are sitting in the low tomid-sixes right now.
We aren't really touching thefives, depending on the program.
So it's one of those thingswhere we're just, like I said,
waiting and seeing.
So they're telling us to justchill out for a minute.
And I know it's gonna lookscary, but just to wait from a
locking standpoint.
So just some information that'shappening this week.
(02:56):
Speaking of locking and speakingof borrowers and different
positions that they can be in,I've had actually two clients
come to me for mortgage loansthat do not have credit scores.
Surprisingly enough, you can geta mortgage loan without credit
scores.
So I'm not sure if we had talkedabout this topic already, but I
wanted to bring it up becauseit's it's super interesting to
(03:18):
me that you can establish acredit history that's outside
the credit report to allow for aclient to be able to purchase a
home without a score.
When you don't have a score, twothings are in play.
Number one, either you justdon't have any credit history,
you've never applied for credit,or if you, let's say you've had
maybe a credit card, but ithasn't been open long enough, or
(03:39):
it's just one card and therejust isn't enough history there
to create a score, that couldhappen.
The other would be if you haveno open trade lines for a solid
six months, you your creditscore will go away as well.
So if you remember, way, youknow, probably a couple months
ago, I talked about a new typeof credit report called the
vantage score.
(03:59):
And that vantage score,including things like rental
payment history, utility billinghistory, et cetera, in an effort
to make it easier for peoplewithout traditional credit
scores to qualify for mortgageloans.
We haven't fully implementedvantage score.
However, we can still use thesame idea and the same amount of
trade lines and establish apattern of on-time payment
(04:23):
history in order to be able tocreate a 12-month on-time
payment history for the clientthat is sufficient enough for on
for approval from a mortgagestandpoint.
The way we do that, we have tohave 12 months of housing.
That is not, that is not anoption.
If nobody, if they haven't paidrent, there's not much we can
help them with from thatstandpoint.
(04:43):
But if they paid rent on timefor 12 months, and they can show
that either by a lease, averification of employment or a
verification of rent from alandlord, or 12 months of
cancel, like 12-month paymenthistory showing on-time
payments, we can use that as a12-month payment history to
establish housing payments.
And the longer the better.
So if they've had a lease for 24months and they paid on time,
(05:04):
that gives us the ability tosay, okay, the payment shock or
rent versus housing payment, thedifference between those two is
what we calculate called apayment shock.
And if as long as we are under100% on the payment shock, we
can use it as a valid way toapprove them for a mortgage
loan.
That along with we're going tobe looking at monthly payments
(05:25):
that they make on, you know,just to do their daily stuff.
So it could be car insurance,internet service, utilities,
streaming services, believe itor not, subscriptions, medical
insurance, daycare payments.
You know, so if they just hadmedical insurance taken out of
their check every month, thatcounts as a 12-month payment
(05:46):
history.
So there's a lot of flexibilityin when it comes to the to
establishing these credithistories to be able for people
that don't have a credit scorefor one reason or another to get
approved.
Interestingly enough, it used tobe that when we had a no-score
borrower, we had to price theloan.
In other words, give them aninterest rate that reflects that
they don't have a credit score.
(06:07):
That interest rate was often 2to 3% higher than what you would
get if you did establish acredit score.
The old way of going aboutthings is I would work with the
clients for six months toestablish that credit score and
then run the loan that waybecause it would save them a ton
of money on interest.
Now we do not need to do that.
We do not need to give them ahigher interest rate.
In fact, we cannot give them ahigher interest rate just
because they don't have a creditscore.
(06:29):
So that interest rate isactually based on either the
co-borrower's credit score or webase it on a 600 credit score,
which is a little bit on the lowside, but it doesn't affect
pricing nearly as much as itused to.
So there are some avenues thatpeople with no credit and no
credit history, there are someavenues that we can help them
establish that can get them tothe qualifying for mortgage.
(06:51):
Also important to note in thestate of Minnesota and in the
state of Arizona, you canqualify for down payment
assistance without a creditscore.
There's no discrimination fromthat standpoint.
So that's nice too.
SPEAKER_00 (07:02):
Very nice.
All good to know.
And yeah, I think we talkedabout this a while back, but
definitely very, very good torevisit.
And it sounds like there's somenew information as well.
And you know, it's just again,what I tell all the agents that
I coach and mentor, or evenbuyers that I'm coming in
contact with, you know,regardless of if they're they
(07:25):
have a credit score, it's good,it's bad, they don't know, they
don't have one, or they're, youknow, six days out, six months
out, a year or two out.
I always say, I'm so glad we'retalking today.
Now's the perfect time becauseit is, it's a perfect time to
get in contact with you and havethem talk with you, figure out
even if it's a year or two out,we have the gift of time then,
(07:49):
and we can figure all this out.
So it's never ever too early toget in contact with Nikki and
really understand what theroadmap looks like.
And I cannot tell you how manybuyers over the years,
especially first, it was alwaysfirst-time home buyers, they're
like, Yeah, we're probably likenine months to a year out, but
just you know, starting to tostarting the process, just
(08:12):
starting to look and becausethey don't know what they don't
know.
And I get them in contact withyou, and boom, two to three
months later, they're closing ona house because yeah, they were
more than ready, they had noidea.
So uh we do this every day.
So that's where it's reallyimportant that we show up as the
experts.
We have great resources andpeople like Nikki in our corner
(08:32):
that will take it and run in herlane while we're still running
in our lane.
So it's so, so important to haveyou on standby and I appreciate
you so much.
SPEAKER_01 (08:41):
Yeah, absolutely.
And you know, it's it's ironicbecause no credit score is
actually an easier mortgageapproval than low credit.
SPEAKER_00 (08:47):
So love it.
Yeah, let's find them.
Yeah, the screen social mediaposts right there.
So anyone listening to this,really, really think about that.
Because I I know that you'llhave a lot of people intrigued
if you post that and uh I getsome curious, curious people.
SPEAKER_01 (09:04):
Yes, absolutely.
Absolutely.
SPEAKER_00 (09:07):
Well, before we go, I was thinking about you know
what to talk about.
And two things happenedrecently, and so I just want to
bring this to light with agentswhen you're meeting with buyers
or sellers, or you know, helpingpeople with one of the biggest
purchases or sale of the one oftheir biggest assets, is be
(09:28):
present.
I can tell you, there's been afew instances in this past month
where I was with, you know,people that I've known for
either for years or I haven'tseen for years.
And when you're sitting withsomeone and talking with them,
especially about their home,either selling or buying, be
(09:49):
present.
That means, you know, if youtruly don't have an emergency,
which 95% of things aren'temergencies and even
emergencies, don't have yourphone on the table, even if it's
upside down, it just signals tothe other person that they're
not the most important thing,that your phone is in whatever
(10:09):
you may be waiting for.
And if there is a five to 10%emergency that you're just
waiting for, let them know that.
Let them know that's why yourphone is out.
And once it's taken care of,then put it away.
But I just can't tell you howhow distracting it is.
I went out to dinner with somefriends, and I was the only one
out of the four of us thatdidn't take my phone out.
(10:32):
And at one point in timethroughout the dinner, they were
distracted, they were on theirphone, they were texting, like,
oh huh.
Like, I'm like, you know, ittakes a lot for you to even just
get out, go do stuff, be awayfrom your family, and to be
around with people that youknow, you can share very clearly
telling you you're not thatimportant or not the most
(10:53):
important thing, or whoever's onthe other end of their phone, or
when you're looking at someone,you know, be present when you're
looking at them.
Don't be looking around as ifsomething is more important or
interesting behind them, becausethat's also like, what are you
looking at?
What are you looking at?
So I just think as agents and asprofessionals showing up in this
(11:14):
industry and for our clients,our customers, our prospects,
there should be a certain waythat you behave and act.
And I just wanted to remindeveryone out there, because I
know a lot of people aren'taware, and we just get so into
ourselves and into our phonesthat I uh it was on my heart to
share today.
So I just want to bring it up.
SPEAKER_01 (11:33):
I always say nothing is gonna change my business in
two hours.
There is not one thing, eveneven someone sitting at a
clothing table, there is nothingthat's going to derail my
business in two hours.
It's just never gonna happen.
So giving someone the time ofday or giving someone two hours
is not gonna absolutely doanything from a damaging
standpoint to the business or toanyone that needs to get a hold
of me.
SPEAKER_00 (11:53):
I love that.
That's so, so, so great to hear.
I knew you acted, I knew you youwere like that because that's
how you absolutely show up.
But there are agents and thereare people out there that need
to be reminded.
And my family had to remind me,you know, sometimes you treat
the people closest to you notquite the best as you do
absolute strangers.
So even think about that.
(12:14):
And I know um my coachimplemented No Distractions
dinner with with his family,which I think is pretty
phenomenal in a world where wecan just feel so disconnected.
So I'll get off my soapbox, butjust have to bring that up
today.
SPEAKER_01 (12:28):
All right, that sounds good.
Yeah, that's always good adviceand always a good reminder.
Perfect.
SPEAKER_00 (12:32):
All right, Nikki.
Well, appreciate you.
Thanks for showing up as usual,and we'll see you all back here
next week.
Bye, guys.
Bye.
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