September 8, 2025 • 11 mins
Mortgage rates have hit their lowest point in 18 months, creating opportunities for both buyers and sellers as we approach the sweet spot before home prices increase.
Listen Now for All the Latest in this Monday Market Update!
Some Key Takeaways:
• Jobs report came in lower than expected, causing the 10-year treasury bond to decrease
• Some borrowers now securing rates around 5.875%
• Expected Fed rate drop next week should help solidify current bond market position
• For every percentage point rates decrease, approximately 5 million new buyers enter the market
• Many Sellers become motivated at 5.5% regardless of their current mortgage rate
Visit kevnikmortgage.com for weekly Monday morning blogs with shareable content for social media, including today's blog about the right time to purchase.
Now's The Time - no matter where you are, where you have been, or your current results - By becoming more aware and following a process, you can have whatever it is you truly desire!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
September 8th and here is our Monday market update
Nikki how are you?
Speaker 2 (00:07):
I'm doing great.
How are you doing?
Speaker 1 (00:09):
Fantastic.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Good, so awesome, awesome, awesome news.
As of Friday and again intotoday, we saw some major
improvement in interest ratesdue to the housing or the jobs
report, I'm sorry coming inlower than expected.
This causes the bond, the10-year treasury bond, to
decrease, which will decreasemortgage interest rates.
So I was able to lock a couplepeople in last week at 5.875.
(00:34):
So we are definitely into thatrange, depending on your
situation and qualifying Bestnews.
I could have had all year, ofcourse, to get us back down into
those five, so hopefully thattrend will continue.
Another thing helping with thisis that there is that expected
Fed rate drop next week whichshould help kind of solidify the
position of the bond marketright now.
(00:55):
That most of that improvement,or most of the expected
improvement, has always alreadybeen reflected in mortgage
interest rates.
It's that that job report kindof just helped push it to the
next level or to the next lowerlevel or bring it down.
So that's really good news.
In my conversations with clients, if you have people who are
asking about refinancing is nowthe right time.
There's a lot of media outthere going rates are at the
(01:18):
lowest they've been in 18 months.
Yes, this is true, but we needto slow down and calm down.
There's a strategy that comesinto refinancing.
My best piece of advice rightnow is for clients who are in
that above 6% range above 7%especially let's take a look.
However, there's going to be aprice point or a rate point
where it's going to make senseto refinance.
(01:40):
We don't want to jump the guntoo quickly.
We expect there's additionalrate drops through the end of
the year.
So my text out to my clients,my calls to my clients, are like
I know you're anxious, we'rewatching, we're waiting, we're
watching and we're waiting.
We want to ride that wave downto the bottom as much as humanly
possible where it makes sense,and then most of that time we're
(02:00):
going to be waiting for about afive and a half.
That seems to be the triggerpoint for a lot of people who
are in the 7% and above range,people that are into the sixes.
We're going to be waiting tillthe low fives and kind of just
saying, okay, let's see if thismakes sense.
So, unless there's some otherneed, you need cash out of
equity in the home, the taxeswent up and you have two higher
payments other things that mighttrigger you to want to
(02:22):
refinance earlier than normal.
Let's just calm down a littlebit for rates to come down even
further.
With that said, on the flipside, let's talk about home
purchasing.
What this you know rateenvironment is going to do is
it's going to start to stimulateyour pipeline.
It's going to start to getpeople to say, okay, is now the
right time, is now.
I've been waiting, I've beenwaiting, I've been waiting and
(02:44):
again, great, that's awesome.
We definitely wanna keep intouch with our pipeline.
For anyone that has evenmentioned the word buying in the
last year Relook at yourinterest rates, relook at your
pre-approval.
Get yourself into a position tostrike while the iron is hot.
The reason that I say that isthere's going to be a point in
(03:08):
time where interest rates aregoing to start coming down
solidly into the fives, but thenwhat happens is those home
prices start to creep up becausethe demand is higher as these
interest rates go down.
So it's very important that wecatch those clients in that in
between, where the home priceshaven't skyrocketed and the
interest rates are still low.
I think we talked about this, Iwant to say about a year ago,
year and a half ago, when it waslike, hey, we're in that spot
again where we're coming intosummer and interest rates are
(03:30):
now down into the sixes asopposed to the sevens.
We want to catch people in thatin-between market so they can
take advantage of the loweringinterest rates before the home
prices increase.
Get in before the demandbecomes increasingly higher.
There are a lot of homes sittingon the market right now.
There's great deals to be hadright now.
I'm telling you, especially inthe Arizona market, there have
(03:53):
been homes that have beensitting on the market for 60, 70
days that have had little tozero activity, where you can
start to make good deals.
We are seeing some foreclosureactivity also in the state,
higher than what we wouldnormally see this time of year.
So in this market there couldbe some opportunities for you to
be able to purchase a home in asmart way.
(04:13):
And what do we always say?
You make money when youpurchase the home, not when you
sell the home.
So it's important that we reachout to our pipeline, start
re-stimulating those buyers,start getting those people back
in line and saying, hey, whereare your interest rates at?
Speaker 1 (04:32):
where are you pre-approved at?
What can we do?
What can we look at?
Yeah, this is truly a sweetspot.
Remind me of the stat every forevery half a percent or percent
that the rate goes down, howmany buyers enter?
Speaker 2 (04:40):
the market, five million buyers in the market For
every percentage rate.
The interest rates go down.
So there is going to beincreased competition, also with
the oil prices.
Opec has basically announcedthat they're going to increase
their oil production, which kindof puts on hold the drill baby
drill situation in the UnitedStates.
(05:02):
That also affects the bondmarket, which could help lower
those interest rates.
So if that's what happens andOPEX increases their production
and satisfies the need for oiland we aren't drilling within
the United States, that couldabsolutely affect the amount of
time it takes those interestrates to go down.
That's a whole secondarydiscussion and a whole another
Monday update for us to talkabout.
(05:22):
But all these factors areplaying in.
But, like I said, we're lookingat those interest rates to
start creeping down again andhopefully we'll start getting
solidly into the fives that'snot the five and a half range by
the end of the year.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
Yeah, yeah.
So now, truly, truly, get infront of it is what I'm hearing.
If you've had a perfect reasonto be reaching out to any buyer
who's put on hold, who may belost out, who's even mentioned
buying, if you can get them inthe race in the market in the
next month or two before itcatches up and prices go up, the
(05:58):
5 million buyers are out therenow, pre-approved and ready to
go in your competition.
Yeah, that's so true.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
And just a couple other reminders.
This goes for sellers too.
Sellers are motivated at that5.5% range, no matter if they
have a 2% or a 3% or a 4% ontheir current mortgage.
They are motivated once thoseinterest rates start hitting
that 5.5% mark.
That's what the statistics tellus.
That's what the surveys tell us.
That's what all the data tellsus is that 5.
A half is kind of that breakingpoint.
(06:26):
If it goes five and a half orunder, a lot of people don't
necessarily worry about their 3%to 5%.
They're not going to go from 3%to 7%, as we know, but 3% to 5%
isn't all that much of astretch for them if they
consider you know what they'redoing from that standpoint.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
Yeah, it's so true, and I did.
I put a post out about newconstruction incentives and you
know, once you get into it Ifound that that was only for
existing ready to sell newconstruction, not build from the
ground up some of thoseincentives buyer, when she was
(07:08):
thinking and talking about it,it wasn't as painful going from
the three point whatever to fiveand a half and she's been
sitting and waiting and waiting.
Doesn't want to be in the home,but we'll deal with it.
You know so, if you can figurethat out.
So I'm going to reach out toher again today and see what
that looks like now.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Reminder, like in that new construction
environment, it's stillcompetitive enough where a lot
of those new builders will nottake contingent offers, and so
that's a huge deal too.
That is expected to continuebecause as these interest rates
go down again, demand is goingto go up.
So if you have a home to sell,you're going to want to talk to
your realtor and see if they cannegotiate a contingent deal, or
(07:46):
talk to me.
There are things that we can doto make you a non-contingent
buyer as you go in to offer ondifferent homes.
Like, we have cash buyingprograms, we have equity, you
can get equity from the priorhome programs, things of that
nature where we can really helpyou position yourself as a
non-contingent buyer.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
So, so, very important.
I love it.
No, that's amazing, great,great news.
And now what do we do with it?
So definitely, reach out toNikki right away.
Have your buyers reach out,anyone that was on the fence,
any questions you have.
It's so, so important to showup and get ahead of these other
5 million buyers.
Self-side same thing If youhave these sellers that are
(08:27):
thinking about refinancing, getthem in line with Nikki right
away, because then you know,like she said, it's watch and
wait, watch and wait, and whenwe can ride that wave at the
bottom, when that makes sense.
It's kind of like options andstocks you can watch it and
watch it and then, when it hits,then you pull the trigger.
It's not an emotional thing,it's a stat.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
It's a business decision.
Also, if you go to my website,kevnickmortgagecom, I do a
Monday morning blog on thatwebsite as well.
That is shareable content forsocial media.
Today's blog is actually aboutthe right time to purchase,
talking about different thingsthat within the market that
could influence whether or not abuyer is ready to buy, and how
(09:09):
to really overcome thoseobjections.
Speaker 1 (09:12):
Yes, perfect, go there right now, get it.
And Nikki, I love that you havegiven us permission, as I let
all agents know, follow Nikkionline, go to her website.
She is opening this up to us sothat we can be educated and
educate, which will set youapart as an agent on social
media.
So the solds are great postingsolds all over the place but
(09:35):
educate, and I found that agentsthat show up like you do as a
lender really do much, much, notbetter or different, but they
just come from a differentcontribution, a place of
contribution, and wanting tohelp and wanting to educate.
And if you can set yourselfapart as the voice of reason, of
(09:56):
education, of knowing, so whenanyone thinks about real estate
in your sphere, they're going tothink of you because you're
showing up at a different andmuch higher level Impactful, I
guess.
Speaker 2 (10:08):
Impactful, valuable, absolutely Education,
relationship-based, you knowthings that really project
long-term business.
Speaker 1 (10:16):
Love it, awesome.
Thank you, nikki.
As always, this is fantastic.
I will get this going, whetheryou're listening on YouTube, on
the podcast, on social media.
If you can comment, like on thepodcast on social media, if you
can comment like, subscribe, goto Nikki's website, support her
, support the show.
We just want to get the wordout to as many people as we can
and make an impact no-transcript.
September 8th and here is our Monday market update
Nikki how are you?
Speaker 2 (00:07):
I'm doing great.
How are you doing?
Speaker 1 (00:09):
Fantastic.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Good, so awesome, awesome, awesome news.
As of Friday and again intotoday, we saw some major
improvement in interest ratesdue to the housing or the jobs
report, I'm sorry coming inlower than expected.
This causes the bond, the10-year treasury bond, to
decrease, which will decreasemortgage interest rates.
So I was able to lock a couplepeople in last week at 5.875.
(00:34):
So we are definitely into thatrange, depending on your
situation and qualifying Bestnews.
I could have had all year, ofcourse, to get us back down into
those five, so hopefully thattrend will continue.
Another thing helping with thisis that there is that expected
Fed rate drop next week whichshould help kind of solidify the
position of the bond marketright now.
(00:55):
That most of that improvement,or most of the expected
improvement, has always alreadybeen reflected in mortgage
interest rates.
It's that that job report kindof just helped push it to the
next level or to the next lowerlevel or bring it down.
So that's really good news.
In my conversations with clients, if you have people who are
asking about refinancing is nowthe right time.
There's a lot of media outthere going rates are at the
(01:18):
lowest they've been in 18 months.
Yes, this is true, but we needto slow down and calm down.
There's a strategy that comesinto refinancing.
My best piece of advice rightnow is for clients who are in
that above 6% range above 7%especially let's take a look.
However, there's going to be aprice point or a rate point
where it's going to make senseto refinance.
(01:40):
We don't want to jump the guntoo quickly.
We expect there's additionalrate drops through the end of
the year.
So my text out to my clients,my calls to my clients, are like
I know you're anxious, we'rewatching, we're waiting, we're
watching and we're waiting.
We want to ride that wave downto the bottom as much as humanly
possible where it makes sense,and then most of that time we're
(02:00):
going to be waiting for about afive and a half.
That seems to be the triggerpoint for a lot of people who
are in the 7% and above range,people that are into the sixes.
We're going to be waiting tillthe low fives and kind of just
saying, okay, let's see if thismakes sense.
So, unless there's some otherneed, you need cash out of
equity in the home, the taxeswent up and you have two higher
payments other things that mighttrigger you to want to
(02:22):
refinance earlier than normal.
Let's just calm down a littlebit for rates to come down even
further.
With that said, on the flipside, let's talk about home
purchasing.
What this you know rateenvironment is going to do is
it's going to start to stimulateyour pipeline.
It's going to start to getpeople to say, okay, is now the
right time, is now.
I've been waiting, I've beenwaiting, I've been waiting and
(02:44):
again, great, that's awesome.
We definitely wanna keep intouch with our pipeline.
For anyone that has evenmentioned the word buying in the
last year Relook at yourinterest rates, relook at your
pre-approval.
Get yourself into a position tostrike while the iron is hot.
The reason that I say that isthere's going to be a point in
(03:08):
time where interest rates aregoing to start coming down
solidly into the fives, but thenwhat happens is those home
prices start to creep up becausethe demand is higher as these
interest rates go down.
So it's very important that wecatch those clients in that in
between, where the home priceshaven't skyrocketed and the
interest rates are still low.
I think we talked about this, Iwant to say about a year ago,
year and a half ago, when it waslike, hey, we're in that spot
again where we're coming intosummer and interest rates are
(03:30):
now down into the sixes asopposed to the sevens.
We want to catch people in thatin-between market so they can
take advantage of the loweringinterest rates before the home
prices increase.
Get in before the demandbecomes increasingly higher.
There are a lot of homes sittingon the market right now.
There's great deals to be hadright now.
I'm telling you, especially inthe Arizona market, there have
(03:53):
been homes that have beensitting on the market for 60, 70
days that have had little tozero activity, where you can
start to make good deals.
We are seeing some foreclosureactivity also in the state,
higher than what we wouldnormally see this time of year.
So in this market there couldbe some opportunities for you to
be able to purchase a home in asmart way.
(04:13):
And what do we always say?
You make money when youpurchase the home, not when you
sell the home.
So it's important that we reachout to our pipeline, start
re-stimulating those buyers,start getting those people back
in line and saying, hey, whereare your interest rates at?
Speaker 1 (04:32):
where are you pre-approved at?
What can we do?
What can we look at?
Yeah, this is truly a sweetspot.
Remind me of the stat every forevery half a percent or percent
that the rate goes down, howmany buyers enter?
Speaker 2 (04:40):
the market, five million buyers in the market For
every percentage rate.
The interest rates go down.
So there is going to beincreased competition, also with
the oil prices.
Opec has basically announcedthat they're going to increase
their oil production, which kindof puts on hold the drill baby
drill situation in the UnitedStates.
(05:02):
That also affects the bondmarket, which could help lower
those interest rates.
So if that's what happens andOPEX increases their production
and satisfies the need for oiland we aren't drilling within
the United States, that couldabsolutely affect the amount of
time it takes those interestrates to go down.
That's a whole secondarydiscussion and a whole another
Monday update for us to talkabout.
(05:22):
But all these factors areplaying in.
But, like I said, we're lookingat those interest rates to
start creeping down again andhopefully we'll start getting
solidly into the fives that'snot the five and a half range by
the end of the year.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
Yeah, yeah.
So now, truly, truly, get infront of it is what I'm hearing.
If you've had a perfect reasonto be reaching out to any buyer
who's put on hold, who may belost out, who's even mentioned
buying, if you can get them inthe race in the market in the
next month or two before itcatches up and prices go up, the
(05:58):
5 million buyers are out therenow, pre-approved and ready to
go in your competition.
Yeah, that's so true.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
And just a couple other reminders.
This goes for sellers too.
Sellers are motivated at that5.5% range, no matter if they
have a 2% or a 3% or a 4% ontheir current mortgage.
They are motivated once thoseinterest rates start hitting
that 5.5% mark.
That's what the statistics tellus.
That's what the surveys tell us.
That's what all the data tellsus is that 5.
A half is kind of that breakingpoint.
(06:26):
If it goes five and a half orunder, a lot of people don't
necessarily worry about their 3%to 5%.
They're not going to go from 3%to 7%, as we know, but 3% to 5%
isn't all that much of astretch for them if they
consider you know what they'redoing from that standpoint.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
Yeah, it's so true, and I did.
I put a post out about newconstruction incentives and you
know, once you get into it Ifound that that was only for
existing ready to sell newconstruction, not build from the
ground up some of thoseincentives buyer, when she was
(07:08):
thinking and talking about it,it wasn't as painful going from
the three point whatever to fiveand a half and she's been
sitting and waiting and waiting.
Doesn't want to be in the home,but we'll deal with it.
You know so, if you can figurethat out.
So I'm going to reach out toher again today and see what
that looks like now.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Reminder, like in that new construction
environment, it's stillcompetitive enough where a lot
of those new builders will nottake contingent offers, and so
that's a huge deal too.
That is expected to continuebecause as these interest rates
go down again, demand is goingto go up.
So if you have a home to sell,you're going to want to talk to
your realtor and see if they cannegotiate a contingent deal, or
(07:46):
talk to me.
There are things that we can doto make you a non-contingent
buyer as you go in to offer ondifferent homes.
Like, we have cash buyingprograms, we have equity, you
can get equity from the priorhome programs, things of that
nature where we can really helpyou position yourself as a
non-contingent buyer.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
So, so, very important.
I love it.
No, that's amazing, great,great news.
And now what do we do with it?
So definitely, reach out toNikki right away.
Have your buyers reach out,anyone that was on the fence,
any questions you have.
It's so, so important to showup and get ahead of these other
5 million buyers.
Self-side same thing If youhave these sellers that are
(08:27):
thinking about refinancing, getthem in line with Nikki right
away, because then you know,like she said, it's watch and
wait, watch and wait, and whenwe can ride that wave at the
bottom, when that makes sense.
It's kind of like options andstocks you can watch it and
watch it and then, when it hits,then you pull the trigger.
It's not an emotional thing,it's a stat.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
It's a business decision.
Also, if you go to my website,kevnickmortgagecom, I do a
Monday morning blog on thatwebsite as well.
That is shareable content forsocial media.
Today's blog is actually aboutthe right time to purchase,
talking about different thingsthat within the market that
could influence whether or not abuyer is ready to buy, and how
(09:09):
to really overcome thoseobjections.
Speaker 1 (09:12):
Yes, perfect, go there right now, get it.
And Nikki, I love that you havegiven us permission, as I let
all agents know, follow Nikkionline, go to her website.
She is opening this up to us sothat we can be educated and
educate, which will set youapart as an agent on social
media.
So the solds are great postingsolds all over the place but
(09:35):
educate, and I found that agentsthat show up like you do as a
lender really do much, much, notbetter or different, but they
just come from a differentcontribution, a place of
contribution, and wanting tohelp and wanting to educate.
And if you can set yourselfapart as the voice of reason, of
(09:56):
education, of knowing, so whenanyone thinks about real estate
in your sphere, they're going tothink of you because you're
showing up at a different andmuch higher level Impactful, I
guess.
Speaker 2 (10:08):
Impactful, valuable, absolutely Education,
relationship-based, you knowthings that really project
long-term business.
Speaker 1 (10:16):
Love it, awesome.
Thank you, nikki.
As always, this is fantastic.
I will get this going, whetheryou're listening on YouTube, on
the podcast, on social media.
If you can comment, like on thepodcast on social media, if you
can comment like, subscribe, goto Nikki's website, support her
, support the show.
We just want to get the wordout to as many people as we can
and make an impact no-transcript.
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