May 12, 2025 • 47 mins
The housing market is undergoing a seismic shift that most mainstream media outlets aren't addressing with the clarity you deserve. I've been diving deep into the numbers across zip codes nationwide, and the evidence is compelling – we're witnessing inventory levels approaching those seen during the previous market bottom.
In small towns like Black Mountain NC - which could be small town America anywhere - available homes have increased from just 17 in 2022 to 85 today – nearly matching the 94 homes available at the bottom of the previous market correction. Even more telling, nearly 40% of sellers are implementing price cuts compared to 32.5% during the previous downturn. This isn't just happening in quiet mountain communities; metropolitan areas are experiencing even more dramatic inventory surges.
For sellers, this shift demands immediate strategy adjustments. The days of aspirational pricing have ended – buyers now have options and negotiating power they haven't possessed in years. If you're considering listing, you need to either price aggressively from the start or consider alternatives like my Certified Pre-Owned approach, which eliminates the typical 3% repair concessions that plague conventional sales.
Buyers, especially younger ones, should recognize this moment of opportunity. Many in their 20s and 30s have resigned themselves to never owning homes, but this market correction creates potential entry points. Consider a 20-year mortgage instead of the standard 30-year option – yes, payments increase slightly, but you could own your home outright by age 46, creating a wealth-building foundation most Americans never achieve.
The current 6-7% interest rates aren't the crisis many portray them to be – they represent historical norms. Smart buyers are negotiating seller concessions to buy down these rates rather than waiting indefinitely for decreases that may never materialize. Remember, you can always refinance later if rates drop significantly.
This market evolution follows patterns economist Clément Juglar identified over 160 years ago – predictable 7-11 year economic cycles. Understanding these fundamentals allows you to make strategic decisions rather than emotional reactions. Whether buying or selling, your ten-year plan matters more than ever in navigating this transitional market successfully.
Ready to discuss your specific situation? Call me at 828-333 4483 24/7 - or visit CashCPO.com to explore alternatives to traditional listings. Let's cut through the noise and find your path forward in this shifting real estate landscape.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is the Plain English Real Estate Show with
your host, rowena Patton, a showthat focuses on the real estate
market in terms you can easilyunderstand.
Call Rowena now.
The number is 240-9962 or1-800-570-9962.
Now here's the English girl inthe mountains, the agent that I
(00:20):
would trust, rowena Patton.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Good morning and welcome to the show.
Oh, this is a funny start tothe day.
I've had a little hiatus herewhere I've been away building
the listing royalty app and I'mback in the station and I'm
sitting here and I thought I wasgoing to start talking.
I'm like where's the microphone?
Randy has taken a little stepback from.
(00:47):
He's still doing some work, butI think he stopped working
seven days a week and we haveThomas here.
Good morning Thomas, hi, goodmorning everyone.
Thomas is now producing.
He hails from Georgia just fora little while, but we won't
hold that against him.
Speaker 3 (00:59):
And now he's back here and your whole family's a
native right, Thomas, he's backhere and your whole family's a
native right Thomas Yep yepFamily's from, like, the Valdez
area.
I produce the afternoon show onWWNC.
So yeah, I've been doing thatfor a little bit since Aline,
and having a good time.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Welcome to Thomas.
So today we're going to betalking about nerddom, common
sense, numbers, how to getnumbers that allow you to make
intelligent conversations.
So you'll know me for a whilenow.
This is year 13 of Saturdaymorning with you.
So you all started listening tome when you were 20.
(01:36):
So you're all almostmiddle-aged by now, right, it's
just so important.
I was thinking about howeverything is moving now and
before we start.
For those of you who don't knowme, maybe you've just tuned in
today or maybe you're listeningto our podcast.
After the event.
It's broadcast live and thenpodcast.
Maybe you don't know.
(01:58):
When I was young, everybodysaid, oh, you've got an old and
and you're too young to knowthese things.
Or I was walking intoboardrooms in my early 20s.
I was running a business thenand I'm still running a business
now, hopefully, but I wasrunning a business of three
different businesses when I was23 and I'd walk into a boardroom
(02:19):
and they'd go.
I just had to deal with theelephant in the room from a very
early age.
It was always well, well,you're too young for this.
It's kind of like what they'resaying to the Doge kids now.
You know lots of young men intheir, most of them in their
early 20s.
I think one of them's even ateenager still, and it's oh,
they're too young to be knowingor doing about this.
(02:42):
The fact is, it's nothing to dowith age.
I've taught and trained andcoached for a very long time,
both in my managementconsultancy role across all
kinds of industries and now, ofcourse, in real estate.
And if I had a dollar for everytime I heard somebody say, oh,
I'm too old for this, or I can'tuse a spreadsheet because I'm
(03:02):
too old, it's not true.
So finally, I'm old enough toprove that.
I was a Google beta tester backin the day and I broke the MLS
almost here when I first got on,because you just got to think a
little differently in anythingyou're doing.
You know those are thebusinesses that pop up, that
people who find a way to solve aproblem, and I call it a BGO.
(03:27):
It's usually a BGO is ablinding glimpse of the obvious,
right.
So what is it that you'rethinking of that you just can't
believe that somebody hasn'tdesigned something to solve this
issue.
I'll give you a good example ofthat.
You've all seen the guy.
I don't remember his name, buthe's the ceo.
(03:47):
It's obviously not that good anad, right?
He's the c?
Ceo and founder of the companythat makes frames.
I think it's called keepsakes.
Obviously it's a decent adbecause I'm remembering
keepsakes.
Keepsakes is an app that youcan go into the app, you click
on the frame.
Actually, I've never been inthe app so I shouldn't be saying
this, but I'm guessing thathe's made it very simple.
So you click on the frame andyou just choose a photo out of
(04:10):
your phone and, of course, nowour entire lives are driven by
our phones.
Most of our photos are taken onthe phones, and phones can take
a darn good picture.
This is how new all of this is.
When I started real estate backin 2007, back in the old days,
we didn't have cell phones thatcould take decent pictures.
I guess it was amazing that wehad cell phones that could take
(04:33):
pictures at all.
We definitely didn't have videoon our phones.
Can you believe that?
At least the majority of us didnot?
There's probably one of you outthere.
Feel free to call in if youwould like to.
It's 828 240 9962.
If you're calling in from mars,it's 800 570 9962.
If you had a cell phone wayback then that had video on it,
(04:56):
I bought one of the.
So then a whole new industrywas born.
There were these little um, uh,gosh, I don't even know how to
describe them.
They're about the size of apager and they took great video
and they developed these thingsand they were.
Everybody had them.
Certainly all the realtors hadthem to make videos and pictures
.
This is only it's not long ago.
(05:17):
It's less than 20 years ago,gosh, is it?
Look, that's amazing.
2007, 2008, so not even 20years ago.
But there were these littleboxes and they lasted for about
two years because so they wereinternet capable.
That was the big claim to famethat they were.
It's so funny talking aboutthis now.
So, um, or, you didn't have tohave a wire to get that video
(05:39):
and the pictures up into the air, up into the big world wide web
because it was internet capable.
So, oh my gosh, this wasamazing.
We used to have to take ourcameras out as realtors if we
took our own photos.
Of course.
You know a lot of us usedprofessional photographers as
well.
I used to run a photographiccompany so, um, I generally take
, take my own photos, um, so wehad all the hassle, blads and
(06:03):
all the wonderful cameras backin the day, so I would take my
regular old camera out have to,and I had a newer camera then
and I would put a wire in it, acable in it, of course, plug it
in.
And of course, we didn't haveUSB-C then, which is now
universal, unless you're aniPhone user.
Sorry, iphone people, but thenew ones have to have it.
It was made a law.
(06:24):
Actually it was meant to be2021.
We were all using USB-C.
If you don't know what that is,that's that big, not
semi-circular.
What do we call it?
Oval?
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Oval with round corners.
Basically, I'd go with ovalthere.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
Yeah, whereas the USB-A, of course, is the flat
one with the big chunky thingthat goes down underneath.
So USB-C now is universal.
Apple is just iPhones.
I tell you, I work on a Mac,it's okay, I'm not.
You know, I have an app thatworks on iPhones, we're all good
.
However, the iPhone is alwayslast to catch up because they're
(06:57):
proprietary.
Anything that's proprietary andnot competing generally is
going to be last to catch up.
I just poked at iPhone thismorning.
Watch for those lawsuits coming.
You can tell I'm live again,can't you?
So you know.
Just think differently abouthow things are happening and how
you're going to capture thatmarket.
I wonder if the people who madethose little boxes that took the
(07:19):
pictures and the video andtheir big claim to fame was the
fact that they were internetcapable and they did last for
about three years.
They were 70 or 80 dollars.
They weren't inexpensive.
I wonder if people made a lotof money on those companies or
they went broke because so muchinvestment goes into a company
up front.
But the keepsake guy howobvious is that?
It's not new, right, but it'staking a business.
(07:43):
The I'm talking about the guywho makes the keepsake app.
We should probably look up hisname.
But whatever, it doesn't matter, it's the whole concept we're
talking about here.
So you, you click on anyhundreds of frames and he claims
the frames are handmade.
I'm sure they are, because hesays that in the ad and he shows
a picture of him.
The first picture he shows iskind of cute him at his wedding,
(08:04):
right, that's such an obviousidea, because what have you got
on your phones?
All your photos, in the main,all your photos.
Here's another little tip forthose of you out there I can see
one of you turning to the otherand rolling your eyes about
that big box of photos you haveup in the attic and you don't
know what to do with them.
And your kids like oh I wantthe photos of me or I don't want
(08:25):
the photo.
Please don't throw those photosaway, mom.
And these are 50 year oldchildren at this point that
don't don't have space in theirhouse to put the photos.
So what do we do with all thisstuff?
Did you know that if you've gota half decent camera now, they
will scan your pictures?
All you got to do now?
It takes a while.
Obviously, you can paycompanies to do this as well.
(08:45):
There's plenty of companies todo it.
Um, thank so thomas has steppedin.
Here is adam weiss, keepsakeframes founder adam weiss,
that's exactly it, and he lookshe's got young children.
I don't know how old he is,he's probably, like, I don't
know, mid 30s or something.
But what a good kudos to him,because maybe he's got some
backers.
I don't know the whole story,but to take a simple idea like
(09:10):
that and then put it into an appand make it easier easy for all
of us to frame our photos ofcourse everybody that works at
the companies here that framephotos michael's is michael
still around here, places likethat, and the photo framers
aren't very happy with me.
This morning it's so nice to beable to go into a store and
feel the frame and touch it andsee how big it really is.
(09:31):
It's hard to get a feel forthat, anything that's material
based, I think.
Oh yeah, what do you think,thomas?
I mean you're at least 93,right?
Speaker 3 (09:40):
Yeah, at least 93.
I'm 26.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
Okay, Thomas is 26.
What do you think, Thomas?
Speaker 3 (09:45):
I think it depends what you're shopping for,
especially with something likeclothes.
Or for my mom's Mother's Day,I'm getting her some bedding
stuff.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
Oh, give a shout out to your mom for tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (09:56):
Yeah, you have to go in person to get things like
that because you don't want toget something, and then online
or anything like that, and thenit just comes out, not how
you're expecting From the mouthof a 26-year-old.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
I love this.
They say actually that peoplebelow 30 are much more
conservative with a small C andsensible, and some common sense
is coming in and you're almost alittle bit old-fashioned.
Do you think there's any truthin that?
Speaker 3 (10:24):
I think for me personally there is.
I don't want to speak to mywhole generation and say that
that's the case, but yeah, yeah,to an extent I think that holds
true.
Speaker 2 (10:35):
Do you want to give a shout-out to your mum this
morning?
Are you allowed to say her nameon?
Speaker 3 (10:38):
there yeah, shout-out to Lillian Modak.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
Lillian, happy Mother's Day, deck.
Uh, lillian, happy mother's day.
And happy mother's day to allthe moms out there.
And of course we know it's notjust a day, it's all year long.
I'll give a shout out to myselfbecause I have a new little
puppy, penny.
Oh, yeah sophie's just gettingused to penny.
Everybody thinks she's adalmatian.
She's a mini dachshund withdalmatian coloring oh, that's
cute though it's, it's, she'sadorable.
(11:04):
how old did you say?
She is now nine weeks old.
I nearly failed Mommy Dom there.
I didn't know how old she was.
So, yeah, she's adorable.
So thank you for that, thomas,and thank you to moms everywhere
, and thank you to dadseverywhere as well.
I always like to give ashout-out to dads, because
there's a lot of single dads outthere, or dads that are raising
kids on their own, or dads thathave 50% of the custody and are
(11:28):
raising kids as well, and wedon't seem to remember that.
And a dad's role is very, veryimportant.
That's pretty obvious, right?
But what are we talking abouttoday?
Common sense, intelligentdecisions and nerddom.
So I want to jump a little bitinto nerddom.
Let's talk for a second aboutcertified pre-owned.
So when I got into real estate.
(11:49):
I'm like what the heck is this?
What is this crazy industry?
I was crying every third dayand I'm not a crier.
It was honestly awful.
I did a lot of business.
I sold.
I didn't even know I wasselling a lot of homes.
I sold a lot of homes and thisis 2007, right before the market
(12:12):
crashed.
It crashed within six months ofme getting into real estate,
which I didn't really know whatwas going on at that point,
which is probably a good thing,and it's not something to be
scared of.
A change in the economy isalways an opportunity for
someone, right?
So if you're selling right now,I would say, definitely get out
(12:35):
there or hold on to your homefor 10 years.
We can go a bit more into that.
If you'd like me to explain toyou on air, I'd be more than
happy to.
We can talk about ClémentJougla.
You can put me in the hot seatand make me talk about it
828-240-9962.
Get on air today or give ashout out to your moms.
We've already given a shout outto Lillian.
(12:55):
Oh, we can't tell her what kindof bedding you got, can we
probably?
Speaker 3 (12:59):
Oh no, Is it a secret ?
Speaker 2 (13:05):
No, we're gonna do the picking out together for
that I'm not gonna get somethingthat she might not want.
Gosh, I was gonna say, likeimagine picking out bedding for
your mom.
Speaker 3 (13:10):
That's almost scary yeah, the previous one she had
gotten online and it wasn't thecolor she was quite looking for,
so I wanted to kind of thecolor, the fabric, everything
right and she's big aboutmatching it to the paint and
doing all like she designed herown house and did all that.
Oh, whereabouts.
Don't give me the address.
Yeah, I'm not going to go thatfar Over in Black Mountain.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
Oh cool, I love Black Mountain.
I started off my life here inBlack Mountain, in fact.
So let's talk about and, ifyou're listening, nationwide.
What I want you to know is mostof the real estate figures that
I'm giving you today hold true,we're a good bellwether for the
rest of the country, unlessyou're in the Northeast.
So if okay, let's talk aboutNew Jersey, because New Jersey
(13:54):
is just weird.
There, ash Davis, if you'relistening, I said it's just
weird.
No, the proximity to New Yorkalmost always means I mean
anybody trying to afford to livein New York.
These days it's nigh onimpossible.
I can see a lot of you outthere listening going I want to
live in New York anyway.
And that tax now, when you needto drive in New York you've got
(14:15):
to pay seven or eight dollars,might be even more than that now
who knows to actually drive inthe city?
So a lot of people live in NewJersey at the end of a railway
station, somewhere you can jumpon and actually get in quickly,
because to buy a house there,you're talking about half or a
quarter of the price andespecially if you've got a
(14:37):
family, those communities tendto go further out, just like
anywhere when you have a family.
But therefore New Jersey isstill rocking and rolling.
But here's the clue Successleaves clues.
It is not rocking and rollingas much as it was two years ago,
when it was multiple offers forevery deal.
Multiple offers were coming inConnecticut, new Hampshire,
(15:00):
everywhere up there in theNortheast is fairly flat, or
still seeing a stable market,shall we say.
So things are selling within 30days.
The rest of us, oh my goodness.
I just came back from SouthFlorida, for example.
So South Florida, in some spotswe're seeing up to an 18% drop.
(15:22):
I'll say that again 18% inprices.
Now that's terrible, right, thesky is falling.
Well, if you bought a year agoand you need to sell, maybe, but
that's not the position mostpeople are in.
What it really means is thatfor buyers, finally you're able
to come in and actually affordsomething.
(15:42):
I'll give you another hot spotas well.
So Tampa is really having atough time of it as well.
Naples is having a tough timeof it.
A lot of Florida is having atough time of it.
Another area is Texas, and againI'm going for a whole state
here and, like Thomas said, I'mnot broad brushing a whole
(16:03):
generation.
He said I'm not going to talkabout my whole generation that
way.
It is funny, thomas, that yousay that, because people often
say to me you don't seem like anEnglish person or you know, oh,
you must know, my friend David,the fact is that just because
I've got an English accent,first of all, I've been here for
29 years.
But secondly, I'm not like anaverage.
I'm not putting myself above orbelow or anything else, but I'm
(16:27):
not like an average englishpeople person, because most
english people live in englandand they probably live in the
same place they grew up in, justlike here the majority of of
the mountains are, I was gonnasay, the majority of natives.
Most natives would say that'snot the case at all.
New people are coming in, butmany people who grew up here
stay here.
It's much more normal thanpeople that move about.
(16:50):
So thank you, thomas, for notbroad brushing your whole
generation.
To be like you, there's alwaysstandouts.
That's what the marketers liketo do, because they like to
market a product to people thatare in Thomas' generation or the
boomers.
The boomers are the biggestmarketing ploy right now.
(17:10):
Oh, you know what the biggestone is, and talking about new
products and nerdy innovationhere for a second is I'm going
to forget.
Oh, it's called Particle.
There's a new I don't know ifit's a new company or not.
I'm sure it's backed by one ofthe big cosmetic houses.
Talk about blinding glimpse ofthe obvious.
So it's called particle and it'syou've all seen it.
(17:32):
It's the particle face cream.
Here it is.
It's for men.
So how is it that for thelongest time met particle, for
mencom, it's called.
How is it for the longest time?
Particleformencom it's called.
How is it?
For the longest time and theydidn't pay me to say this we
didn't have a line of cosmeticsfor men.
Now, men aren't going to bebothered, and I'm broad brushing
here.
This is how marketers do it todemographics.
(17:54):
Men aren't going to be botheredusing six different bottles,
like a silly women do where wepay, you know, even if you go to
a drugstore, it's 20 or 30dollars for the serum and then
you got to put this on top ofthat, and then that on top of
that, and then the night creams,and then the day creams that
have the sunscreen in them andeverything else.
No, for men it's particle.
(18:15):
I think it's six in one orsomething like that, and you
just use one and the ad is agood-looking, probably late 40s
man.
And then he says things do younotice that men who look like
this?
And then they show a man withage spots and looking like he
had a rough night last nightWell, it is Saturday morning, so
that could be the case and thenhe says and you could look like
(18:37):
this, and of course it's alldown to particle.
What a blinding glimpse of theobvious.
I'm sure this thing is flyingoff the shelves and it's not
inexpensive.
I don't remember the exact cost, it's about 50 bucks, something
like that, and that's with adiscount.
But it is the six in one orfive in one.
I'll probably get sued nowbecause I'm not saying exactly
how many in one it is, but youknow it gets rid of your age
(18:59):
spots and your ring.
It doesn't really get rid ofthem.
And your wrinkle doesn't reallyget rid of them, but you know
it makes them look less so.
I guess we're saying but what ablinding glimpse of the obvious
.
I wish I had the backing tocome up with that.
Thomas is looking at now.
You don't need that yet, thomas.
Speaker 3 (19:12):
Oh no, not yet Got to look.
Prepare for the future, youknow.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
Of course, all those 20-year-old and poor women.
When they hit 30, it's like oh,it's all downhill from here.
I'm starting to get wrinklesagain.
If I had a dollar for every 30year old woman that I know,
that's getting botox.
Oh, I'm having it to preventthe wrinkles coming in.
Or the best one is oh, I getmigraines, so I'm having.
That's why I'm having all thisbotox.
Keep telling yourself thattelling yourself that yeah too,
(19:40):
thomas.
like every other man out there,do you prefer a woman with no
makeup, a little bit of makeupfor enhancement or a lot of
makeup?
I?
Speaker 3 (19:51):
And you might prefer men Putting me in an awkward
position here, you know.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
You can make it men as well.
Men, women, whatever you'reinto Like.
Do you prefer a very coiffed ora medium coiffed?
You know a little bit of makingan effort or no effort at all,
I think a little bit of makingan effort For makeup.
Speaker 3 (20:10):
I think it's better if it just accentuates your
natural beauty instead of tryingto make something that isn't
there.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
His name is Thomas, you can look him up Too funny.
I think that's how most peoplefeel, quite honestly.
Speaker 3 (20:24):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (20:25):
And nobody wants to leap out of bed in the morning
and you know, get your mascaraon or whatever it is Spend an
hour or so.
Yeah, oh my gosh, I had girls,I remember, at college, girls at
the big.
Well, I'm not an 80s collegegirl, but I'm a 90s college girl
, but I guess the big hair wasstill in, or some of the girls I
(20:46):
was going to college with stillhad the big hair, or they had
the curly hair that they had toblow dry, I guess, and they'd
spend an hour in the morningbefore college.
I can believe it.
Speaker 3 (20:56):
I've got pretty long hair and tried to do stuff like
that when it was longer.
It's just not worth it.
I'm not enough of a morningperson to go through that whole
routine.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
Thomas, by the way, has got beautifully beautiful
curls.
Gosh, I wish I'd.
I've got all the curlsunderneath that I have to
straighten because all the topsstraight.
So yeah, but those are mypersonal problems, never mind.
Let's look at black mountainwhere, where um thomas's family
are from 28711 gorgeous littletown has a special spot in my
(21:26):
heart because I was there for somany years.
It really is.
It gets voted one of theprettiest towns.
Well, it gets voted theprettiest town in the USA for
good reason.
It bothers everybody that thathappens, quite honestly, apart
from the people who are just ontourism, of course, because it
is a beautiful little town andpeople get worried about so many
(21:46):
tourists coming in, quitenaturally.
So you know that if this ishappening in the prettiest
little town in the country andagain, you can call in if you'd
like, 828-240-9962.
If you're calling in from Mars,800-570-9962.
And check out your zip codewherever you are in the USA.
(22:07):
I got a call last week from alady in Denver that wants to
list a house and I have the bestagent ever working for her over
there.
It doesn't matter where you are, I can give you these data
points.
I have 30 different data pointsfor every zip code in the
country.
Because of the national programthat I'm running, I have to
have these.
(22:27):
So let's have a look at BlackMountain without further ado.
Like, yeah, we've been waitingalready, get on with it.
So back in 2019 at the prettymuch at the bottom.
So uh, this so six years ago.
How old are you 26?
Speaker 3 (22:45):
yeah 26.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
Okay, so this you.
You were the ripe old age of 20at that point, couldn't even
drink.
Couldn't even drink.
Yeah, I bet you were sneakingone.
Speaker 3 (22:57):
No comment.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
This is where Thomas tells that he breaks the law on
air.
So 2019, I always look at youknow what's for sale.
I've got some key ones in here,which are price cuts.
It looks at the price cutpercentage now and over the
years, back to 2017, and I'lltell you why that's important in
(23:19):
a minute.
So back in 2019, at the bottom,we had 94 homes for sale.
The next year, as thingsstarted to improve in in 2020
and we had a run up, basicallybetween 2020 and really maybe
2023, it started to flatten out.
So 2020, we had 79 for sale.
(23:40):
We had 94 for sale back in 2019, down to 79.
So this is year on year andit's a comparison, right, but
these are straight comparisonsof what's happening in a year of
real estate.
So then, in 2021, we know whatwas happening then Went down to
22 for sale People were scaredto sell their houses during
(24:01):
COVID.
In 2022, 17.
So we went from 94 for sale Nowthis is a small town, it's
2,500 people, and then, when thesummer hits, it's more like
4,000 or 5,000 people.
So it's small town, usa thatthere is more than one stop
light though, and it's also athriving, bustling little town
(24:21):
17.
So we went from 94 to sell inin april 2019 to 17 in 2022.
That's an amazing drop, right.
And then in 2023, obviously,things were recovering.
However, we've all beencomplaining about lack of
inventory and we only had 38 forsale.
So still, uh, under half.
(24:41):
And then in 2024 that rose to52.
So getting healthy again, right?
2025.
You want to know the number?
Can we do a drum roll?
That is 85.
We're almost at the bottom ofthe crash amounts now.
Why is that important?
Basic, let's go into nerd now.
(25:03):
I'm going to use these threethemes throughout the day.
Let's go into nerd and a littlebit of common sense.
So it's really common sense.
You all did basic economics atschool supply and demand.
When there's more demand, youcan create more of a supply.
If there is a great demand anda small supply, the prices go up
(25:24):
.
Right, because you can.
If there's a big demand peoplewant something you can afford to
charge more.
It's really that simple.
Don't overthink this.
So back at the bottom.
In fact, the two years at thebottom 2018, 2019, 2020 we had
76 for sale, 94 and then 79.
(25:44):
Those are the three years.
We've now got 85 guys.
It's almost the height of 2019.
I could show you this in everysmall town all over the country.
I don't know why the economistsare not talking about it.
I don't know why people likePort Barber Corcoran is on
saying it's the best time to buya house.
She's partially right in that,because we have a lot of price
(26:08):
drops and I can explain it awayall I want to, but you need to
know what's happening withprices.
If you're a buyer and you canafford to hold on, chances are
next year you're going to havelower prices.
However, you may have a higherinterest rate.
Everybody thinks the interestrates are high right now, like
(26:29):
six and a half.
We're hovering between six andseven.
That's normal, folks.
This is where you got to bringthe common sense in.
If randy were here, theproducer that worked here before
thomas and he's he's not out ofthe farm, by the way.
He's still doing some radio.
He's not fully retired.
So, randy, if you're listening,we love you.
(26:49):
So if randy were here, he wouldtell you the story about when
he um was a younger man it's noteven that long ago when he had
an interest rate of 16 or 17percent, and many of you
listening have yeah, many of youlistening have experienced that
six to seven is normal.
That's a normal interest rate.
(27:10):
So will they go down?
Maybe Not that likely.
And even if they do, you canrefinance at that point.
Is it going to cost you a bitof money?
Sure, but there's other ways todo this.
Okay, so it's pretty much abuyer's market right now,
everywhere in the country apartfrom the Northeast what we
started out with in thebeginning.
So, as a buyer, you can ask forthe sellers to buy down your
(27:38):
rate.
Did you know that?
So if they're buying down yourrate, if all you're worried
about is the interest rateyou're paying, because we've
already seen some price drops inthe market, ask for a seller
concession to buy down your rate.
Maybe you could get a rate of5%.
Who knows, what do you want?
And then you've got to thinkabout what you pay your buyer.
We'll have to do a whole showon that.
How are you going to pay yourbuyer's agent?
(28:00):
Because now it's all negotiablewe as a listing agent this is
everywhere in the country, bythe way, they changed the rules.
Many of us think it's hurtingsellers and hurting buyers, and
I would tend to agree.
I.
I think it's hurting sellersand hurting buyers and I would
tend to agree.
I'm definitely in that camp.
What happens now is that beforeyou go into a house this is the
law, guys you have to cite abuyer agency agreement.
(28:26):
That is creating agency.
It's a contract between you andthe buyer's agent.
It's going to say that you willpay them X percent or zero
Maybe they're a volunteer agentI'm sort of being silly, but not
really You're going to pay themX percent if that's not covered
by the seller.
So many sellers are saying nowwell, I was paying 6 percent
more, I want to pay 3 percentnow and the other 3 percent
(28:49):
should be covered on the buyer'sside.
The problem is we haven't allgotten used to the new system
and what it looks like,especially sellers and buyers,
because you probably haven'tbought or sold a house in the
last 10 years and now everythingis different.
However, in all of that messthat's going on, maybe you'll
come out for the better in thelong run.
Who knows, you now can haveyour sellers buy down your rate
(29:13):
and sellers if you're sellingyour house.
I want you to think about thatand think about making an offer.
It's what we call a BGO, right?
So we'll have that as anothertheme for the day.
A BGO, a blinding glimpse of theobvious, or it's just common
sense?
If the buyers are worried aboutnot buying a house because of
the interest rates, then buydown their interest rate.
(29:34):
Yes, it might cost you $10,000.
Do you know what the averagerepair recession amount is?
That you give back 3%?
Now, that's when you're not acertified pre-owned home.
You know, I all advise you tobe a CPO home.
That was my blinding glimpse ofthe obvious and common sense
and intelligent and nerddom whenI first got into real estate
(29:57):
back in 2007 and it was anightmare and everything was
crashing.
I went wait a second.
We sell certified pre-ownedhomes for substantially more and
they drop out seven percent ofthe time.
Seven percent of the time.
That's outrageous, thomas, haveyou ever bought a house?
no do most people your agehaven't.
(30:20):
These days, they're moving backin with their parents or
they're renting yeah becausehouses have become so
unaffordable.
Do most of your friends rent,or are they at home with their
parents?
Speaker 3 (30:30):
most of my friends have resigned themselves to the
idea that they're probably nevergoing to be able to own a home.
Oh, that's terrible.
Yeah, it's kind of a little sad.
I don't know anybody around myage who's able to afford
something.
I think the only people wouldbe someone who got lucky with
like crypto or something alongthose lines.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
Well, we need to bring your friends in one day
and I want to talk to you allabout buying a home in your 20s
and what that looks like.
Speaker 3 (30:57):
um do you?
Speaker 2 (30:58):
think you can organize that and get two of
your friends in that are intheir 20s maybe, possibly.
Speaker 3 (31:02):
I'm trying to move in with some of my friends, so, uh
, bring them in.
Speaker 2 (31:05):
Yeah, because you're all looking at it because real
estate is something that willgive you wealth forever.
Oh, yeah, um, regardless ofwhat's happening with the market
and how you do that and maybewe'll just do live online how
you individually could purchasea house or purchase a house
together, and what that wouldlook like.
Yeah, terrors of terrors, butyes, it's a very interesting
(31:27):
time to do it.
So back to the figures.
Now.
We are all the way up to forsale inventory 85.
If that doesn't sound like alot, we were 17 17 in 2022, 38
when we recovered from covid in2023.
Last year, we were 52 85.
That's a massive jump, guys,and it's around the same as the
(31:50):
peak of the great depression, orwhatever we wanted to call it
right last time, around 2018,2020, at the bottom.
We're almost at that level.
I'm not saying this to scare you.
I'm saying it because if youare a seller, get real already.
Do those price reductions.
A lot of you are.
I can show you that too.
(32:11):
So let's have a look in pricecuts now.
I'm going over there.
I haven't even looked at thisbeforehand, honestly.
So I'm not just, you know,choosing black mountain because
I like it.
I do like it's placed here inmy heart, but this is a thriving
.
This is thriving small town,usa.
We're going to do big town in aminute and see what that looks
like.
So here we are in.
Remember, we're at the bottomhere.
(32:32):
So 2000, uh, oh, let's look atback at 2017.
So this is bumping along thebottom here.
So 2000, uh, or, let's look atback at 2017.
So this is bumping along thebottom, when we were in a mess
and very little was selling, and, and and sellers were getting
real.
So back at 2017, when thingswere really awful, 32.5% were
were doing price cuts in April.
(32:53):
That's about a third right.
So I like that number because Ican remember it easily 32.5%,
so about one third, we're doingprice cuts.
That dropped but you know it'salmost not fair to use COVID in
there because it dropped to 8%,14%, 10%.
That's really not normal.
So I can tell you what normalis actually is 19.5%.
(33:16):
That's the not normal.
So I can tell you what normalis actually is 19.5%.
That's a balanced market.
So you'll have about one infive doing a price cut.
Why are price cuts important?
Because remember supply anddemand.
Let's talk about competition.
The other houses that are forsale are your competition.
It doesn't matter if you're ina small town or a big town.
(33:36):
Competition Are they betterprepared than yours?
Do they look better than yours?
Are they in a better area thanyours?
Do the schools get betterratings than yours?
Does it have better curb appeal?
Is it better staged?
Is it better painted?
Does it have a quartzcountertop?
And yours has old granite orformica or butchers block.
(33:58):
That's all stained and burnedup.
Who knows?
If you're a flip house, you'veprobably got a butcher block in
there because it's cheaper.
So 32.5 at the bottom.
You want to know what it is.
Now we might need that drumroll again, thomas.
I'm going to give thomas aminute to get his drum roll I do
actually play drums, so you doI do, yeah, oh, I don't.
Speaker 3 (34:16):
I can't do anything too fancy, I don't have
drumsticks, but oh, he's doingthe drum roll.
Speaker 2 (34:21):
I hope you can all hear that.
So, 32.5 at the bottom when wecrashed, it's 39.2% now.
Okay, now, why should you beconcerned about that?
If you're a seller, that'snearly 40%.
I'm just rounding to make themath easier right?
If 40% of your competitors aredropping their price and, by the
(34:45):
way, we've had nine or tenmonths of straight price drops
now I talk about this every week.
I don't say it to scare you,because there's nothing to be
scared about.
If you get your nerd on, if youget your common sense on, if
you use your intelligence on, ifyou get your common sense on,
if you use your intelligenceright, don't be scared of it,
just go.
Well, wait a second.
Last year, it was only 23percent of people at this time
(35:05):
of year were doing price cuts.
Why?
Because there was lessinventory.
Do you remember when we looked?
And we looked at the amount ofinventory and it was at the
levels that it was when wecrashed, right?
So there's more inventory,supply and demand.
The supply is much, much biggernow, so therefore buyers have a
lot more to choose from, right?
(35:26):
So therefore, you've got a lotof competition because there's a
lot of homes for sale.
Does that make sense?
Does that make sense, thomas?
You've never bought a house.
Does that, honestly?
Does that make sense?
Or ask me questions if itdoesn't.
No, that makes sense, thomas.
You've never bought a house.
Honestly, does that make sense?
Or ask me questions if itdoesn't.
Speaker 3 (35:37):
No, that makes sense to me.
I mean I took economics classesin college and stuff, so I get
the supply and demand thingright there.
Speaker 2 (35:43):
Yeah, well, I think most people did, or at least did
a little bit, at school, andyou know, it's really this
simple.
If you think about when ahurricane is coming or some bad
weather is coming, um, and yougo to the grocery store, all the
bread and milk is gone.
And the eggs well, not the eggsright now, because they're too
expensive, yeah, let's not gothere.
They've come down in price.
(36:03):
Even all the eggs have gone now.
So the, the milk, the, the, the, the bread, the eggs, they've
all gone.
Why?
Because there was a big demand,because there's a storm coming
now.
Do we, do we want to slap thosepeople?
Yes, but that's a whole othershow too.
They've all gone because therewas a big demand all of a sudden
, and the supply couldn't keepup with it.
(36:24):
It's really that simple.
There's a lot of houses outthere right now.
Therefore, there's always andand if you're sitting at home
selling going, well, I don'tneed to move, I don't care, well
, that's fine, but take yourhouse off the market.
In that case, don't go throughthe misery that is selling your
house in a conventional sale andkeep it on the market.
If you, if you're just dippingyour toe in and definitely don't
(36:46):
go.
Oh well, I'm just going to testit out next year.
Clement juglar, 1860, frencheconomist, set out the economic
cycle.
It's a long time ago, guys,that's 1860.
We will be celebrating 200years of him in 35 years here,
coming up very soon, or is it 45?
I don't know.
Thomas can do the math, I don'tknow.
Speaker 3 (37:07):
He did.
Speaker 2 (37:08):
See, he did.
He did economics, but he can'twork that out.
I love it, just put him on thespot there and obviously I
really don't care.
But it's a long time ago, isthe point?
And again people are out theregoing.
Oh no, you know, house pricesare going to be stable.
In fact we're we're expectingthat they go up.
Have you noticed in the newsheadlines that things change all
the time?
Speaker 3 (37:29):
isn't it interesting, especially this year?
Speaker 2 (37:31):
especially this year.
Yeah, exactly, and it doesn'tmatter if you're talking about
how there was a.
You know, we had a president inplace and the news wasn't
really talking about the hisdecline, and now a lot of these
people are coming out and goingoh no, absolutely, we were let's
try and find the clip, and theycan't.
Or it could be tariffs, or itcould be.
(37:53):
I mean, you name it right, itcould be anything.
Oh no, I didn't say that.
Let's look at the Pope.
Oh, there'll never be anAmerican Pope.
Suddenly we have an AmericanPope.
I said how?
did that happen.
Speaker 3 (38:03):
That's pretty wild.
I was very surprised by that.
Speaker 2 (38:06):
Isn't it wild, oh my gosh.
Speaker 3 (38:08):
We had a bunch of people coming on the morning and
afternoon news show and theywere like experts and they're
like we're not going to see anAmerican Pope Ever.
Yeah, probably not going tohappen, it's going to be an
Italian right.
Yeah, or something along thoselines.
Speaker 2 (38:20):
They thought it was going to be Italian.
So news changes all the timeand people have you ever heard
of spin?
People spin news to fit theirown criteria.
Oh yeah, even though I'm inreal estate, I've just got the
honest burger, get a gene orsomething, I don't know.
I just want to tell you thetruth because I believe that
you're intelligent enough andyou've got enough common sense
(38:43):
that when I tell you the truthand you go, oh, that's a
no-brainer, you'll make the bestdecision.
I mean, isn't that the way itshould be?
I'm not going to try and spin itand say buy a house, no and no,
I I will.
I am the how can we girl, right?
So there are people that reallywant to buy a house now and,
thomas, you and your friends aresome of them.
(39:05):
In the next two or three years,when you get into your early
30s, let's make sure you've gota house already.
Or we can figure out how youcan do it now, because you know
I want you to think about thisyou can have a mortgage for 20
years.
You can have a mortgage for 30years when you start young and
you're 29, now 26.
(39:25):
I keep getting the six and thenine mixed up for some reason.
Very similar, so 26.
So if you take a 30-yearmortgage, get used to this
You're going to be 56 years oldNow, 56 for that house being
paid off is pretty cool, buthere's the other truth most
often you don't stay in thathouse, you move and you go to
another house and that mortgagecontinues.
So everybody in their 20s rightnow and, by the way, every
(39:47):
other age as well I want you tothink about a 20-year mortgage.
In the last two houses thatI've been in, that saved my
shirt, because usually you onlyadd about five to ten percent of
the monthly mortgage fee.
Isn't that crazy?
yeah and you pay it off a thirdfaster.
But oh my gosh, how you will befeeling that when you're 56, or
(40:09):
if you do, I mean my gosh, 56isn't that wild yeah you'll be a
middle-aged person.
Speaker 3 (40:15):
Scary thing to think about.
A little bit, yeah, but yeah.
Speaker 2 (40:18):
By the time you pay the house off.
Now, if you do a 20-year,you'll only be 46.
46 years old, you'll own yourhouse outright and it really is
the greatest source of wealthfor most people.
And if you, I have what I callthe shift diagram, which I'm
happy to share with you all.
It looks at Clemence and theseven to 11 year cycle.
(40:41):
So I always say if you want tostay, listen the people who are
dipping their toes in.
If you want to stay in yourhouse for 10 years, nothing
wrong with that.
Does that house work for you?
Because if it does and you'vegot that, you know 2% interest
rate or something crazy thenstay in it, but have the mindset
that you're going to stay in it.
The next option is move on towhere you want to be.
(41:02):
Maybe you want to right size.
Maybe you're Thomas in 20 yearstime.
So in 20 years time, thomas is46.
Let's talk about what happenedto most of you who are 46 now.
So when you were I'm looking atthat demographic right now so
when you were 22 years old, yougot married.
That stopped as well, hasn't it, thomas, in your friends.
Speaker 3 (41:25):
Yeah, don't see too many early 20s getting married,
so you're 26 years old.
Speaker 2 (41:29):
How many of your friends are married?
Three Out of how many friendsdo you think?
Speaker 3 (41:38):
15 or 20.
I'm also like, is that?
Speaker 2 (41:39):
like 10%.
Speaker 3 (41:41):
Yeah, probably maybe somewhere around there.
I'm also talking about likefriends from high school.
I haven't seen in a coupleyears at this point.
Speaker 2 (41:47):
But yeah, uh, not many, no One or two out of a
whole group of friends, so the46 to 56 year olds now.
You got married at 22 and youryour kids went to school at.
You were 40 years old when yourkids went to college.
Is that right?
22, 32, 42 would make them 20.
(42:11):
So they went to college 18, soyou'd be 40, and then they left
college when you were 42 or so.
So that means, um, had youacted like the previous
demographics acted and that'swhy everything is changing in
wealth here at 46, your kidswould have been out of college
for four years and you would ownyour house and then
(42:34):
retirement's right there, yeah,yeah, no, no.
Well, maybe not right there, butyou know I'm reaching across
the table, so everybody who'sover 50 right now I'm reaching
across the table and slappingthomas because yeah, retire.
So they say 60 is the new 40now, which is pretty funny.
But um, there's lots of 60 yearolds that that act like 40 year
olds you know people.
(42:55):
We didn't even realize until afew years ago that our brains
were elastic, right?
So we were told by the powersthat be that we just forget
things.
An old dog can't learn newtricks, right?
There's all these phrases aboutit.
Well, we discovered in the last10 years only that our brains
are elastic and we can't last 10years, only that our brains are
(43:19):
elastic and we can't.
Hey guys, if we are, live,hello and we're back.
We had a little technicalglitch there for a moment.
I am sorry about that.
We were talking in our nerddomand apparently neither of us is
such a nerd.
Fortunately, thomas is such anerd that he managed to get
everything back up.
So what were we talking about,thomas?
Speaker 3 (43:42):
oh, that's the hard part right there uh, what were
we talking about?
Speaker 2 (43:45):
see, nobody can say, oh, we're too old to remember,
we have no internet, so we don'treally know whether you're
hearing this or not, but if youare, then we love you anyway.
And so we were talking aboutwhat the numbers were for Black
Mountain.
I can't see them anymorebecause we don't have Internet,
but that's OK, and we've got anice reverb going on.
(44:06):
So I'm sorry everybody, Iapologize.
Speaker 3 (44:09):
That was me testing to make sure we're on, and I
believe we should be good now.
Speaker 2 (44:13):
Yay, fantastic.
Good job, thomas.
So we were looking at thenumbers for small town America
essentially and basically sayingthere is double and triple the
amount on the market.
We're back at the levels thatwe were in the crash.
And you just have to trust me,because now we don't have
(44:33):
internet.
It's amazing what happens whenwe don't have technology right.
Really wonderful things usually.
Fortunately, I've got a brainand I'm not relying on it and I
do my research and I know what'sgoing on with the figures
because I run a national programand big city USA is actually
suffering a little bit more thansmall town USA in almost
(44:55):
everywhere in the country, alittle bit more than small town
USA in almost everywhere in thecountry.
So again, if you just tuned in,we're talking about what's
going on with market figuresright now.
Let me come back to what I wastalking about in price cuts.
So price cuts are veryimportant to look at because why
, in six months time, when allthose price cuts come home to
roost, you are going to havesales that will lower.
(45:18):
What does that mean?
Well, they then record withlower prices and the comparables
are much lower, and then thewell over half probably 60, 70,
80 in some areas where peopleare getting mortgages to buy the
homes, the mortgages will getmore and more difficult to get
because the homes aren't comping.
That's get more and moredifficult to get because the
homes aren't comping.
That's exactly what you startseeing.
(45:39):
The appraisals aren't happening.
You've got two choices at thatpoint.
The buyer can pull out, or youcan reduce your price, which a
lot of people do.
So remember.
You can go to cashcpocom.
Cashcpocom skip all thislisting nonsense.
It's a full market value priceoffer.
You can go right there and getan offer on your house without
(46:01):
even thinking about listing it.
Cashgpocom it works all overthe country.
Or we can do a conventionallisting.
Don't do that.
Do a certified pre-ownedlisting.
Where you get the inspection upfront, it's more important than
anywhere, guys.
Where you get the inspection upfront, it's more important than
anywhere, guys.
So you know, keep thinkingabout that and doing that.
(46:23):
So it's very, very I'm soundinglike Trump now it's very, very
important, very, very big.
You've got to think about doingthat, because everybody goes in
eyes wide open at that point,which makes a lot more sense.
Speaker 1 (46:37):
See you next week on the radio, guys this has been
(46:58):
the plain english real RealEstate Show with Rowena Patton.
Visit Rowena and post yourquestions at RadioAshevillecom
or call her at 828-210-1648.
This is the Plain English Real Estate Show with
your host, rowena Patton, a showthat focuses on the real estate
market in terms you can easilyunderstand.
Call Rowena now.
The number is 240-9962 or1-800-570-9962.
Now here's the English girl inthe mountains, the agent that I
(00:20):
would trust, rowena Patton.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Good morning and welcome to the show.
Oh, this is a funny start tothe day.
I've had a little hiatus herewhere I've been away building
the listing royalty app and I'mback in the station and I'm
sitting here and I thought I wasgoing to start talking.
I'm like where's the microphone?
Randy has taken a little stepback from.
(00:47):
He's still doing some work, butI think he stopped working
seven days a week and we haveThomas here.
Good morning Thomas, hi, goodmorning everyone.
Thomas is now producing.
He hails from Georgia just fora little while, but we won't
hold that against him.
Speaker 3 (00:59):
And now he's back here and your whole family's a
native right, Thomas, he's backhere and your whole family's a
native right Thomas Yep yepFamily's from, like, the Valdez
area.
I produce the afternoon show onWWNC.
So yeah, I've been doing thatfor a little bit since Aline,
and having a good time.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Welcome to Thomas.
So today we're going to betalking about nerddom, common
sense, numbers, how to getnumbers that allow you to make
intelligent conversations.
So you'll know me for a whilenow.
This is year 13 of Saturdaymorning with you.
So you all started listening tome when you were 20.
(01:36):
So you're all almostmiddle-aged by now, right, it's
just so important.
I was thinking about howeverything is moving now and
before we start.
For those of you who don't knowme, maybe you've just tuned in
today or maybe you're listeningto our podcast.
After the event.
It's broadcast live and thenpodcast.
Maybe you don't know.
(01:58):
When I was young, everybodysaid, oh, you've got an old and
and you're too young to knowthese things.
Or I was walking intoboardrooms in my early 20s.
I was running a business thenand I'm still running a business
now, hopefully, but I wasrunning a business of three
different businesses when I was23 and I'd walk into a boardroom
(02:19):
and they'd go.
I just had to deal with theelephant in the room from a very
early age.
It was always well, well,you're too young for this.
It's kind of like what they'resaying to the Doge kids now.
You know lots of young men intheir, most of them in their
early 20s.
I think one of them's even ateenager still, and it's oh,
they're too young to be knowingor doing about this.
(02:42):
The fact is, it's nothing to dowith age.
I've taught and trained andcoached for a very long time,
both in my managementconsultancy role across all
kinds of industries and now, ofcourse, in real estate.
And if I had a dollar for everytime I heard somebody say, oh,
I'm too old for this, or I can'tuse a spreadsheet because I'm
(03:02):
too old, it's not true.
So finally, I'm old enough toprove that.
I was a Google beta tester backin the day and I broke the MLS
almost here when I first got on,because you just got to think a
little differently in anythingyou're doing.
You know those are thebusinesses that pop up, that
people who find a way to solve aproblem, and I call it a BGO.
(03:27):
It's usually a BGO is ablinding glimpse of the obvious,
right.
So what is it that you'rethinking of that you just can't
believe that somebody hasn'tdesigned something to solve this
issue.
I'll give you a good example ofthat.
You've all seen the guy.
I don't remember his name, buthe's the ceo.
(03:47):
It's obviously not that good anad, right?
He's the c?
Ceo and founder of the companythat makes frames.
I think it's called keepsakes.
Obviously it's a decent adbecause I'm remembering
keepsakes.
Keepsakes is an app that youcan go into the app, you click
on the frame.
Actually, I've never been inthe app so I shouldn't be saying
this, but I'm guessing thathe's made it very simple.
So you click on the frame andyou just choose a photo out of
(04:10):
your phone and, of course, nowour entire lives are driven by
our phones.
Most of our photos are taken onthe phones, and phones can take
a darn good picture.
This is how new all of this is.
When I started real estate backin 2007, back in the old days,
we didn't have cell phones thatcould take decent pictures.
I guess it was amazing that wehad cell phones that could take
(04:33):
pictures at all.
We definitely didn't have videoon our phones.
Can you believe that?
At least the majority of us didnot?
There's probably one of you outthere.
Feel free to call in if youwould like to.
It's 828 240 9962.
If you're calling in from mars,it's 800 570 9962.
If you had a cell phone wayback then that had video on it,
(04:56):
I bought one of the.
So then a whole new industrywas born.
There were these little um, uh,gosh, I don't even know how to
describe them.
They're about the size of apager and they took great video
and they developed these thingsand they were.
Everybody had them.
Certainly all the realtors hadthem to make videos and pictures
.
This is only it's not long ago.
(05:17):
It's less than 20 years ago,gosh, is it?
Look, that's amazing.
2007, 2008, so not even 20years ago.
But there were these littleboxes and they lasted for about
two years because so they wereinternet capable.
That was the big claim to famethat they were.
It's so funny talking aboutthis now.
So, um, or, you didn't have tohave a wire to get that video
(05:39):
and the pictures up into the air, up into the big world wide web
because it was internet capable.
So, oh my gosh, this wasamazing.
We used to have to take ourcameras out as realtors if we
took our own photos.
Of course.
You know a lot of us usedprofessional photographers as
well.
I used to run a photographiccompany so, um, I generally take
, take my own photos, um, so wehad all the hassle, blads and
(06:03):
all the wonderful cameras backin the day, so I would take my
regular old camera out have to,and I had a newer camera then
and I would put a wire in it, acable in it, of course, plug it
in.
And of course, we didn't haveUSB-C then, which is now
universal, unless you're aniPhone user.
Sorry, iphone people, but thenew ones have to have it.
It was made a law.
(06:24):
Actually it was meant to be2021.
We were all using USB-C.
If you don't know what that is,that's that big, not
semi-circular.
What do we call it?
Oval?
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Oval with round corners.
Basically, I'd go with ovalthere.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
Yeah, whereas the USB-A, of course, is the flat
one with the big chunky thingthat goes down underneath.
So USB-C now is universal.
Apple is just iPhones.
I tell you, I work on a Mac,it's okay, I'm not.
You know, I have an app thatworks on iPhones, we're all good
.
However, the iPhone is alwayslast to catch up because they're
(06:57):
proprietary.
Anything that's proprietary andnot competing generally is
going to be last to catch up.
I just poked at iPhone thismorning.
Watch for those lawsuits coming.
You can tell I'm live again,can't you?
So you know.
Just think differently abouthow things are happening and how
you're going to capture thatmarket.
I wonder if the people who madethose little boxes that took the
(07:19):
pictures and the video andtheir big claim to fame was the
fact that they were internetcapable and they did last for
about three years.
They were 70 or 80 dollars.
They weren't inexpensive.
I wonder if people made a lotof money on those companies or
they went broke because so muchinvestment goes into a company
up front.
But the keepsake guy howobvious is that?
It's not new, right, but it'staking a business.
(07:43):
The I'm talking about the guywho makes the keepsake app.
We should probably look up hisname.
But whatever, it doesn't matter, it's the whole concept we're
talking about here.
So you, you click on anyhundreds of frames and he claims
the frames are handmade.
I'm sure they are, because hesays that in the ad and he shows
a picture of him.
The first picture he shows iskind of cute him at his wedding,
(08:04):
right, that's such an obviousidea, because what have you got
on your phones?
All your photos, in the main,all your photos.
Here's another little tip forthose of you out there I can see
one of you turning to the otherand rolling your eyes about
that big box of photos you haveup in the attic and you don't
know what to do with them.
And your kids like oh I wantthe photos of me or I don't want
(08:25):
the photo.
Please don't throw those photosaway, mom.
And these are 50 year oldchildren at this point that
don't don't have space in theirhouse to put the photos.
So what do we do with all thisstuff?
Did you know that if you've gota half decent camera now, they
will scan your pictures?
All you got to do now?
It takes a while.
Obviously, you can paycompanies to do this as well.
(08:45):
There's plenty of companies todo it.
Um, thank so thomas has steppedin.
Here is adam weiss, keepsakeframes founder adam weiss,
that's exactly it, and he lookshe's got young children.
I don't know how old he is,he's probably, like, I don't
know, mid 30s or something.
But what a good kudos to him,because maybe he's got some
backers.
I don't know the whole story,but to take a simple idea like
(09:10):
that and then put it into an appand make it easier easy for all
of us to frame our photos ofcourse everybody that works at
the companies here that framephotos michael's is michael
still around here, places likethat, and the photo framers
aren't very happy with me.
This morning it's so nice to beable to go into a store and
feel the frame and touch it andsee how big it really is.
(09:31):
It's hard to get a feel forthat, anything that's material
based, I think.
Oh yeah, what do you think,thomas?
I mean you're at least 93,right?
Speaker 3 (09:40):
Yeah, at least 93.
I'm 26.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
Okay, Thomas is 26.
What do you think, Thomas?
Speaker 3 (09:45):
I think it depends what you're shopping for,
especially with something likeclothes.
Or for my mom's Mother's Day,I'm getting her some bedding
stuff.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
Oh, give a shout out to your mom for tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (09:56):
Yeah, you have to go in person to get things like
that because you don't want toget something, and then online
or anything like that, and thenit just comes out, not how
you're expecting From the mouthof a 26-year-old.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
I love this.
They say actually that peoplebelow 30 are much more
conservative with a small C andsensible, and some common sense
is coming in and you're almost alittle bit old-fashioned.
Do you think there's any truthin that?
Speaker 3 (10:24):
I think for me personally there is.
I don't want to speak to mywhole generation and say that
that's the case, but yeah, yeah,to an extent I think that holds
true.
Speaker 2 (10:35):
Do you want to give a shout-out to your mum this
morning?
Are you allowed to say her nameon?
Speaker 3 (10:38):
there yeah, shout-out to Lillian Modak.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
Lillian, happy Mother's Day, deck.
Uh, lillian, happy mother's day.
And happy mother's day to allthe moms out there.
And of course we know it's notjust a day, it's all year long.
I'll give a shout out to myselfbecause I have a new little
puppy, penny.
Oh, yeah sophie's just gettingused to penny.
Everybody thinks she's adalmatian.
She's a mini dachshund withdalmatian coloring oh, that's
cute though it's, it's, she'sadorable.
(11:04):
how old did you say?
She is now nine weeks old.
I nearly failed Mommy Dom there.
I didn't know how old she was.
So, yeah, she's adorable.
So thank you for that, thomas,and thank you to moms everywhere
, and thank you to dadseverywhere as well.
I always like to give ashout-out to dads, because
there's a lot of single dads outthere, or dads that are raising
kids on their own, or dads thathave 50% of the custody and are
(11:28):
raising kids as well, and wedon't seem to remember that.
And a dad's role is very, veryimportant.
That's pretty obvious, right?
But what are we talking abouttoday?
Common sense, intelligentdecisions and nerddom.
So I want to jump a little bitinto nerddom.
Let's talk for a second aboutcertified pre-owned.
So when I got into real estate.
(11:49):
I'm like what the heck is this?
What is this crazy industry?
I was crying every third dayand I'm not a crier.
It was honestly awful.
I did a lot of business.
I sold.
I didn't even know I wasselling a lot of homes.
I sold a lot of homes and thisis 2007, right before the market
(12:12):
crashed.
It crashed within six months ofme getting into real estate,
which I didn't really know whatwas going on at that point,
which is probably a good thing,and it's not something to be
scared of.
A change in the economy isalways an opportunity for
someone, right?
So if you're selling right now,I would say, definitely get out
(12:35):
there or hold on to your homefor 10 years.
We can go a bit more into that.
If you'd like me to explain toyou on air, I'd be more than
happy to.
We can talk about ClémentJougla.
You can put me in the hot seatand make me talk about it
828-240-9962.
Get on air today or give ashout out to your moms.
We've already given a shout outto Lillian.
(12:55):
Oh, we can't tell her what kindof bedding you got, can we
probably?
Speaker 3 (12:59):
Oh no, Is it a secret ?
Speaker 2 (13:05):
No, we're gonna do the picking out together for
that I'm not gonna get somethingthat she might not want.
Gosh, I was gonna say, likeimagine picking out bedding for
your mom.
Speaker 3 (13:10):
That's almost scary yeah, the previous one she had
gotten online and it wasn't thecolor she was quite looking for,
so I wanted to kind of thecolor, the fabric, everything
right and she's big aboutmatching it to the paint and
doing all like she designed herown house and did all that.
Oh, whereabouts.
Don't give me the address.
Yeah, I'm not going to go thatfar Over in Black Mountain.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
Oh cool, I love Black Mountain.
I started off my life here inBlack Mountain, in fact.
So let's talk about and, ifyou're listening, nationwide.
What I want you to know is mostof the real estate figures that
I'm giving you today hold true,we're a good bellwether for the
rest of the country, unlessyou're in the Northeast.
So if okay, let's talk aboutNew Jersey, because New Jersey
(13:54):
is just weird.
There, ash Davis, if you'relistening, I said it's just
weird.
No, the proximity to New Yorkalmost always means I mean
anybody trying to afford to livein New York.
These days it's nigh onimpossible.
I can see a lot of you outthere listening going I want to
live in New York anyway.
And that tax now, when you needto drive in New York you've got
(14:15):
to pay seven or eight dollars,might be even more than that now
who knows to actually drive inthe city?
So a lot of people live in NewJersey at the end of a railway
station, somewhere you can jumpon and actually get in quickly,
because to buy a house there,you're talking about half or a
quarter of the price andespecially if you've got a
(14:37):
family, those communities tendto go further out, just like
anywhere when you have a family.
But therefore New Jersey isstill rocking and rolling.
But here's the clue Successleaves clues.
It is not rocking and rollingas much as it was two years ago,
when it was multiple offers forevery deal.
Multiple offers were coming inConnecticut, new Hampshire,
(15:00):
everywhere up there in theNortheast is fairly flat, or
still seeing a stable market,shall we say.
So things are selling within 30days.
The rest of us, oh my goodness.
I just came back from SouthFlorida, for example.
So South Florida, in some spotswe're seeing up to an 18% drop.
(15:22):
I'll say that again 18% inprices.
Now that's terrible, right, thesky is falling.
Well, if you bought a year agoand you need to sell, maybe, but
that's not the position mostpeople are in.
What it really means is thatfor buyers, finally you're able
to come in and actually affordsomething.
(15:42):
I'll give you another hot spotas well.
So Tampa is really having atough time of it as well.
Naples is having a tough timeof it.
A lot of Florida is having atough time of it.
Another area is Texas, and againI'm going for a whole state
here and, like Thomas said, I'mnot broad brushing a whole
(16:03):
generation.
He said I'm not going to talkabout my whole generation that
way.
It is funny, thomas, that yousay that, because people often
say to me you don't seem like anEnglish person or you know, oh,
you must know, my friend David,the fact is that just because
I've got an English accent,first of all, I've been here for
29 years.
But secondly, I'm not like anaverage.
I'm not putting myself above orbelow or anything else, but I'm
(16:27):
not like an average englishpeople person, because most
english people live in englandand they probably live in the
same place they grew up in, justlike here the majority of of
the mountains are, I was gonnasay, the majority of natives.
Most natives would say that'snot the case at all.
New people are coming in, butmany people who grew up here
stay here.
It's much more normal thanpeople that move about.
(16:50):
So thank you, thomas, for notbroad brushing your whole
generation.
To be like you, there's alwaysstandouts.
That's what the marketers liketo do, because they like to
market a product to people thatare in Thomas' generation or the
boomers.
The boomers are the biggestmarketing ploy right now.
(17:10):
Oh, you know what the biggestone is, and talking about new
products and nerdy innovationhere for a second is I'm going
to forget.
Oh, it's called Particle.
There's a new I don't know ifit's a new company or not.
I'm sure it's backed by one ofthe big cosmetic houses.
Talk about blinding glimpse ofthe obvious.
So it's called particle and it'syou've all seen it.
(17:32):
It's the particle face cream.
Here it is.
It's for men.
So how is it that for thelongest time met particle, for
mencom, it's called.
How is it for the longest time?
Particleformencom it's called.
How is it?
For the longest time and theydidn't pay me to say this we
didn't have a line of cosmeticsfor men.
Now, men aren't going to bebothered, and I'm broad brushing
here.
This is how marketers do it todemographics.
(17:54):
Men aren't going to be botheredusing six different bottles,
like a silly women do where wepay, you know, even if you go to
a drugstore, it's 20 or 30dollars for the serum and then
you got to put this on top ofthat, and then that on top of
that, and then the night creams,and then the day creams that
have the sunscreen in them andeverything else.
No, for men it's particle.
(18:15):
I think it's six in one orsomething like that, and you
just use one and the ad is agood-looking, probably late 40s
man.
And then he says things do younotice that men who look like
this?
And then they show a man withage spots and looking like he
had a rough night last nightWell, it is Saturday morning, so
that could be the case and thenhe says and you could look like
(18:37):
this, and of course it's alldown to particle.
What a blinding glimpse of theobvious.
I'm sure this thing is flyingoff the shelves and it's not
inexpensive.
I don't remember the exact cost, it's about 50 bucks, something
like that, and that's with adiscount.
But it is the six in one orfive in one.
I'll probably get sued nowbecause I'm not saying exactly
how many in one it is, but youknow it gets rid of your age
(18:59):
spots and your ring.
It doesn't really get rid ofthem.
And your wrinkle doesn't reallyget rid of them, but you know
it makes them look less so.
I guess we're saying but what ablinding glimpse of the obvious
.
I wish I had the backing tocome up with that.
Thomas is looking at now.
You don't need that yet, thomas.
Speaker 3 (19:12):
Oh no, not yet Got to look.
Prepare for the future, youknow.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
Of course, all those 20-year-old and poor women.
When they hit 30, it's like oh,it's all downhill from here.
I'm starting to get wrinklesagain.
If I had a dollar for every 30year old woman that I know,
that's getting botox.
Oh, I'm having it to preventthe wrinkles coming in.
Or the best one is oh, I getmigraines, so I'm having.
That's why I'm having all thisbotox.
Keep telling yourself thattelling yourself that yeah too,
(19:40):
thomas.
like every other man out there,do you prefer a woman with no
makeup, a little bit of makeupfor enhancement or a lot of
makeup?
I?
Speaker 3 (19:51):
And you might prefer men Putting me in an awkward
position here, you know.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
You can make it men as well.
Men, women, whatever you'reinto Like.
Do you prefer a very coiffed ora medium coiffed?
You know a little bit of makingan effort or no effort at all,
I think a little bit of makingan effort For makeup.
Speaker 3 (20:10):
I think it's better if it just accentuates your
natural beauty instead of tryingto make something that isn't
there.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
His name is Thomas, you can look him up Too funny.
I think that's how most peoplefeel, quite honestly.
Speaker 3 (20:24):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (20:25):
And nobody wants to leap out of bed in the morning
and you know, get your mascaraon or whatever it is Spend an
hour or so.
Yeah, oh my gosh, I had girls,I remember, at college, girls at
the big.
Well, I'm not an 80s collegegirl, but I'm a 90s college girl
, but I guess the big hair wasstill in, or some of the girls I
(20:46):
was going to college with stillhad the big hair, or they had
the curly hair that they had toblow dry, I guess, and they'd
spend an hour in the morningbefore college.
I can believe it.
Speaker 3 (20:56):
I've got pretty long hair and tried to do stuff like
that when it was longer.
It's just not worth it.
I'm not enough of a morningperson to go through that whole
routine.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
Thomas, by the way, has got beautifully beautiful
curls.
Gosh, I wish I'd.
I've got all the curlsunderneath that I have to
straighten because all the topsstraight.
So yeah, but those are mypersonal problems, never mind.
Let's look at black mountainwhere, where um thomas's family
are from 28711 gorgeous littletown has a special spot in my
(21:26):
heart because I was there for somany years.
It really is.
It gets voted one of theprettiest towns.
Well, it gets voted theprettiest town in the USA for
good reason.
It bothers everybody that thathappens, quite honestly, apart
from the people who are just ontourism, of course, because it
is a beautiful little town andpeople get worried about so many
(21:46):
tourists coming in, quitenaturally.
So you know that if this ishappening in the prettiest
little town in the country andagain, you can call in if you'd
like, 828-240-9962.
If you're calling in from Mars,800-570-9962.
And check out your zip codewherever you are in the USA.
(22:07):
I got a call last week from alady in Denver that wants to
list a house and I have the bestagent ever working for her over
there.
It doesn't matter where you are, I can give you these data
points.
I have 30 different data pointsfor every zip code in the
country.
Because of the national programthat I'm running, I have to
have these.
(22:27):
So let's have a look at BlackMountain without further ado.
Like, yeah, we've been waitingalready, get on with it.
So back in 2019 at the prettymuch at the bottom.
So uh, this so six years ago.
How old are you 26?
Speaker 3 (22:45):
yeah 26.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
Okay, so this you.
You were the ripe old age of 20at that point, couldn't even
drink.
Couldn't even drink.
Yeah, I bet you were sneakingone.
Speaker 3 (22:57):
No comment.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
This is where Thomas tells that he breaks the law on
air.
So 2019, I always look at youknow what's for sale.
I've got some key ones in here,which are price cuts.
It looks at the price cutpercentage now and over the
years, back to 2017, and I'lltell you why that's important in
(23:19):
a minute.
So back in 2019, at the bottom,we had 94 homes for sale.
The next year, as thingsstarted to improve in in 2020
and we had a run up, basicallybetween 2020 and really maybe
2023, it started to flatten out.
So 2020, we had 79 for sale.
(23:40):
We had 94 for sale back in 2019, down to 79.
So this is year on year andit's a comparison, right, but
these are straight comparisonsof what's happening in a year of
real estate.
So then, in 2021, we know whatwas happening then Went down to
22 for sale People were scaredto sell their houses during
(24:01):
COVID.
In 2022, 17.
So we went from 94 for sale Nowthis is a small town, it's
2,500 people, and then, when thesummer hits, it's more like
4,000 or 5,000 people.
So it's small town, usa thatthere is more than one stop
light though, and it's also athriving, bustling little town
(24:21):
17.
So we went from 94 to sell inin april 2019 to 17 in 2022.
That's an amazing drop, right.
And then in 2023, obviously,things were recovering.
However, we've all beencomplaining about lack of
inventory and we only had 38 forsale.
So still, uh, under half.
(24:41):
And then in 2024 that rose to52.
So getting healthy again, right?
2025.
You want to know the number?
Can we do a drum roll?
That is 85.
We're almost at the bottom ofthe crash amounts now.
Why is that important?
Basic, let's go into nerd now.
(25:03):
I'm going to use these threethemes throughout the day.
Let's go into nerd and a littlebit of common sense.
So it's really common sense.
You all did basic economics atschool supply and demand.
When there's more demand, youcan create more of a supply.
If there is a great demand anda small supply, the prices go up
(25:24):
.
Right, because you can.
If there's a big demand peoplewant something you can afford to
charge more.
It's really that simple.
Don't overthink this.
So back at the bottom.
In fact, the two years at thebottom 2018, 2019, 2020 we had
76 for sale, 94 and then 79.
(25:44):
Those are the three years.
We've now got 85 guys.
It's almost the height of 2019.
I could show you this in everysmall town all over the country.
I don't know why the economistsare not talking about it.
I don't know why people likePort Barber Corcoran is on
saying it's the best time to buya house.
She's partially right in that,because we have a lot of price
(26:08):
drops and I can explain it awayall I want to, but you need to
know what's happening withprices.
If you're a buyer and you canafford to hold on, chances are
next year you're going to havelower prices.
However, you may have a higherinterest rate.
Everybody thinks the interestrates are high right now, like
(26:29):
six and a half.
We're hovering between six andseven.
That's normal, folks.
This is where you got to bringthe common sense in.
If randy were here, theproducer that worked here before
thomas and he's he's not out ofthe farm, by the way.
He's still doing some radio.
He's not fully retired.
So, randy, if you're listening,we love you.
(26:49):
So if randy were here, he wouldtell you the story about when
he um was a younger man it's noteven that long ago when he had
an interest rate of 16 or 17percent, and many of you
listening have yeah, many of youlistening have experienced that
six to seven is normal.
That's a normal interest rate.
(27:10):
So will they go down?
Maybe Not that likely.
And even if they do, you canrefinance at that point.
Is it going to cost you a bitof money?
Sure, but there's other ways todo this.
Okay, so it's pretty much abuyer's market right now,
everywhere in the country apartfrom the Northeast what we
started out with in thebeginning.
So, as a buyer, you can ask forthe sellers to buy down your
(27:38):
rate.
Did you know that?
So if they're buying down yourrate, if all you're worried
about is the interest rateyou're paying, because we've
already seen some price drops inthe market, ask for a seller
concession to buy down your rate.
Maybe you could get a rate of5%.
Who knows, what do you want?
And then you've got to thinkabout what you pay your buyer.
We'll have to do a whole showon that.
How are you going to pay yourbuyer's agent?
(28:00):
Because now it's all negotiablewe as a listing agent this is
everywhere in the country, bythe way, they changed the rules.
Many of us think it's hurtingsellers and hurting buyers, and
I would tend to agree.
I.
I think it's hurting sellersand hurting buyers and I would
tend to agree.
I'm definitely in that camp.
What happens now is that beforeyou go into a house this is the
law, guys you have to cite abuyer agency agreement.
(28:26):
That is creating agency.
It's a contract between you andthe buyer's agent.
It's going to say that you willpay them X percent or zero
Maybe they're a volunteer agentI'm sort of being silly, but not
really You're going to pay themX percent if that's not covered
by the seller.
So many sellers are saying nowwell, I was paying 6 percent
more, I want to pay 3 percentnow and the other 3 percent
(28:49):
should be covered on the buyer'sside.
The problem is we haven't allgotten used to the new system
and what it looks like,especially sellers and buyers,
because you probably haven'tbought or sold a house in the
last 10 years and now everythingis different.
However, in all of that messthat's going on, maybe you'll
come out for the better in thelong run.
Who knows, you now can haveyour sellers buy down your rate
(29:13):
and sellers if you're sellingyour house.
I want you to think about thatand think about making an offer.
It's what we call a BGO, right?
So we'll have that as anothertheme for the day.
A BGO, a blinding glimpse of theobvious, or it's just common
sense?
If the buyers are worried aboutnot buying a house because of
the interest rates, then buydown their interest rate.
(29:34):
Yes, it might cost you $10,000.
Do you know what the averagerepair recession amount is?
That you give back 3%?
Now, that's when you're not acertified pre-owned home.
You know, I all advise you tobe a CPO home.
That was my blinding glimpse ofthe obvious and common sense
and intelligent and nerddom whenI first got into real estate
(29:57):
back in 2007 and it was anightmare and everything was
crashing.
I went wait a second.
We sell certified pre-ownedhomes for substantially more and
they drop out seven percent ofthe time.
Seven percent of the time.
That's outrageous, thomas, haveyou ever bought a house?
no do most people your agehaven't.
(30:20):
These days, they're moving backin with their parents or
they're renting yeah becausehouses have become so
unaffordable.
Do most of your friends rent,or are they at home with their
parents?
Speaker 3 (30:30):
most of my friends have resigned themselves to the
idea that they're probably nevergoing to be able to own a home.
Oh, that's terrible.
Yeah, it's kind of a little sad.
I don't know anybody around myage who's able to afford
something.
I think the only people wouldbe someone who got lucky with
like crypto or something alongthose lines.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
Well, we need to bring your friends in one day
and I want to talk to you allabout buying a home in your 20s
and what that looks like.
Speaker 3 (30:57):
um do you?
Speaker 2 (30:58):
think you can organize that and get two of
your friends in that are intheir 20s maybe, possibly.
Speaker 3 (31:02):
I'm trying to move in with some of my friends, so, uh
, bring them in.
Speaker 2 (31:05):
Yeah, because you're all looking at it because real
estate is something that willgive you wealth forever.
Oh, yeah, um, regardless ofwhat's happening with the market
and how you do that and maybewe'll just do live online how
you individually could purchasea house or purchase a house
together, and what that wouldlook like.
Yeah, terrors of terrors, butyes, it's a very interesting
(31:27):
time to do it.
So back to the figures.
Now.
We are all the way up to forsale inventory 85.
If that doesn't sound like alot, we were 17 17 in 2022, 38
when we recovered from covid in2023.
Last year, we were 52 85.
That's a massive jump, guys,and it's around the same as the
(31:50):
peak of the great depression, orwhatever we wanted to call it
right last time, around 2018,2020, at the bottom.
We're almost at that level.
I'm not saying this to scare you.
I'm saying it because if youare a seller, get real already.
Do those price reductions.
A lot of you are.
I can show you that too.
(32:11):
So let's have a look in pricecuts now.
I'm going over there.
I haven't even looked at thisbeforehand, honestly.
So I'm not just, you know,choosing black mountain because
I like it.
I do like it's placed here inmy heart, but this is a thriving
.
This is thriving small town,usa.
We're going to do big town in aminute and see what that looks
like.
So here we are in.
Remember, we're at the bottomhere.
(32:32):
So 2000, uh, oh, let's look atback at 2017.
So this is bumping along thebottom here.
So 2000, uh, or, let's look atback at 2017.
So this is bumping along thebottom, when we were in a mess
and very little was selling, and, and and sellers were getting
real.
So back at 2017, when thingswere really awful, 32.5% were
were doing price cuts in April.
(32:53):
That's about a third right.
So I like that number because Ican remember it easily 32.5%,
so about one third, we're doingprice cuts.
That dropped but you know it'salmost not fair to use COVID in
there because it dropped to 8%,14%, 10%.
That's really not normal.
So I can tell you what normalis actually is 19.5%.
(33:16):
That's the not normal.
So I can tell you what normalis actually is 19.5%.
That's a balanced market.
So you'll have about one infive doing a price cut.
Why are price cuts important?
Because remember supply anddemand.
Let's talk about competition.
The other houses that are forsale are your competition.
It doesn't matter if you're ina small town or a big town.
(33:36):
Competition Are they betterprepared than yours?
Do they look better than yours?
Are they in a better area thanyours?
Do the schools get betterratings than yours?
Does it have better curb appeal?
Is it better staged?
Is it better painted?
Does it have a quartzcountertop?
And yours has old granite orformica or butchers block.
(33:58):
That's all stained and burnedup.
Who knows?
If you're a flip house, you'veprobably got a butcher block in
there because it's cheaper.
So 32.5 at the bottom.
You want to know what it is.
Now we might need that drumroll again, thomas.
I'm going to give thomas aminute to get his drum roll I do
actually play drums, so you doI do, yeah, oh, I don't.
Speaker 3 (34:16):
I can't do anything too fancy, I don't have
drumsticks, but oh, he's doingthe drum roll.
Speaker 2 (34:21):
I hope you can all hear that.
So, 32.5 at the bottom when wecrashed, it's 39.2% now.
Okay, now, why should you beconcerned about that?
If you're a seller, that'snearly 40%.
I'm just rounding to make themath easier right?
If 40% of your competitors aredropping their price and, by the
(34:45):
way, we've had nine or tenmonths of straight price drops
now I talk about this every week.
I don't say it to scare you,because there's nothing to be
scared about.
If you get your nerd on, if youget your common sense on, if
you use your intelligence on, ifyou get your common sense on,
if you use your intelligenceright, don't be scared of it,
just go.
Well, wait a second.
Last year, it was only 23percent of people at this time
(35:05):
of year were doing price cuts.
Why?
Because there was lessinventory.
Do you remember when we looked?
And we looked at the amount ofinventory and it was at the
levels that it was when wecrashed, right?
So there's more inventory,supply and demand.
The supply is much, much biggernow, so therefore buyers have a
lot more to choose from, right?
(35:26):
So therefore, you've got a lotof competition because there's a
lot of homes for sale.
Does that make sense?
Does that make sense, thomas?
You've never bought a house.
Does that, honestly?
Does that make sense?
Or ask me questions if itdoesn't.
No, that makes sense, thomas.
You've never bought a house.
Honestly, does that make sense?
Or ask me questions if itdoesn't.
Speaker 3 (35:37):
No, that makes sense to me.
I mean I took economics classesin college and stuff, so I get
the supply and demand thingright there.
Speaker 2 (35:43):
Yeah, well, I think most people did, or at least did
a little bit, at school, andyou know, it's really this
simple.
If you think about when ahurricane is coming or some bad
weather is coming, um, and yougo to the grocery store, all the
bread and milk is gone.
And the eggs well, not the eggsright now, because they're too
expensive, yeah, let's not gothere.
They've come down in price.
(36:03):
Even all the eggs have gone now.
So the, the milk, the, the, the, the bread, the eggs, they've
all gone.
Why?
Because there was a big demand,because there's a storm coming
now.
Do we, do we want to slap thosepeople?
Yes, but that's a whole othershow too.
They've all gone because therewas a big demand all of a sudden
, and the supply couldn't keepup with it.
(36:24):
It's really that simple.
There's a lot of houses outthere right now.
Therefore, there's always andand if you're sitting at home
selling going, well, I don'tneed to move, I don't care, well
, that's fine, but take yourhouse off the market.
In that case, don't go throughthe misery that is selling your
house in a conventional sale andkeep it on the market.
If you, if you're just dippingyour toe in and definitely don't
(36:46):
go.
Oh well, I'm just going to testit out next year.
Clement juglar, 1860, frencheconomist, set out the economic
cycle.
It's a long time ago, guys,that's 1860.
We will be celebrating 200years of him in 35 years here,
coming up very soon, or is it 45?
I don't know.
Thomas can do the math, I don'tknow.
Speaker 3 (37:07):
He did.
Speaker 2 (37:08):
See, he did.
He did economics, but he can'twork that out.
I love it, just put him on thespot there and obviously I
really don't care.
But it's a long time ago, isthe point?
And again people are out theregoing.
Oh no, you know, house pricesare going to be stable.
In fact we're we're expectingthat they go up.
Have you noticed in the newsheadlines that things change all
the time?
Speaker 3 (37:29):
isn't it interesting, especially this year?
Speaker 2 (37:31):
especially this year.
Yeah, exactly, and it doesn'tmatter if you're talking about
how there was a.
You know, we had a president inplace and the news wasn't
really talking about the hisdecline, and now a lot of these
people are coming out and goingoh no, absolutely, we were let's
try and find the clip, and theycan't.
Or it could be tariffs, or itcould be.
(37:53):
I mean, you name it right, itcould be anything.
Oh no, I didn't say that.
Let's look at the Pope.
Oh, there'll never be anAmerican Pope.
Suddenly we have an AmericanPope.
I said how?
did that happen.
Speaker 3 (38:03):
That's pretty wild.
I was very surprised by that.
Speaker 2 (38:06):
Isn't it wild, oh my gosh.
Speaker 3 (38:08):
We had a bunch of people coming on the morning and
afternoon news show and theywere like experts and they're
like we're not going to see anAmerican Pope Ever.
Yeah, probably not going tohappen, it's going to be an
Italian right.
Yeah, or something along thoselines.
Speaker 2 (38:20):
They thought it was going to be Italian.
So news changes all the timeand people have you ever heard
of spin?
People spin news to fit theirown criteria.
Oh yeah, even though I'm inreal estate, I've just got the
honest burger, get a gene orsomething, I don't know.
I just want to tell you thetruth because I believe that
you're intelligent enough andyou've got enough common sense
(38:43):
that when I tell you the truthand you go, oh, that's a
no-brainer, you'll make the bestdecision.
I mean, isn't that the way itshould be?
I'm not going to try and spin itand say buy a house, no and no,
I I will.
I am the how can we girl, right?
So there are people that reallywant to buy a house now and,
thomas, you and your friends aresome of them.
(39:05):
In the next two or three years,when you get into your early
30s, let's make sure you've gota house already.
Or we can figure out how youcan do it now, because you know
I want you to think about thisyou can have a mortgage for 20
years.
You can have a mortgage for 30years when you start young and
you're 29, now 26.
(39:25):
I keep getting the six and thenine mixed up for some reason.
Very similar, so 26.
So if you take a 30-yearmortgage, get used to this
You're going to be 56 years oldNow, 56 for that house being
paid off is pretty cool, buthere's the other truth most
often you don't stay in thathouse, you move and you go to
another house and that mortgagecontinues.
So everybody in their 20s rightnow and, by the way, every
(39:47):
other age as well I want you tothink about a 20-year mortgage.
In the last two houses thatI've been in, that saved my
shirt, because usually you onlyadd about five to ten percent of
the monthly mortgage fee.
Isn't that crazy?
yeah and you pay it off a thirdfaster.
But oh my gosh, how you will befeeling that when you're 56, or
(40:09):
if you do, I mean my gosh, 56isn't that wild yeah you'll be a
middle-aged person.
Speaker 3 (40:15):
Scary thing to think about.
A little bit, yeah, but yeah.
Speaker 2 (40:18):
By the time you pay the house off.
Now, if you do a 20-year,you'll only be 46.
46 years old, you'll own yourhouse outright and it really is
the greatest source of wealthfor most people.
And if you, I have what I callthe shift diagram, which I'm
happy to share with you all.
It looks at Clemence and theseven to 11 year cycle.
(40:41):
So I always say if you want tostay, listen the people who are
dipping their toes in.
If you want to stay in yourhouse for 10 years, nothing
wrong with that.
Does that house work for you?
Because if it does and you'vegot that, you know 2% interest
rate or something crazy thenstay in it, but have the mindset
that you're going to stay in it.
The next option is move on towhere you want to be.
(41:02):
Maybe you want to right size.
Maybe you're Thomas in 20 yearstime.
So in 20 years time, thomas is46.
Let's talk about what happenedto most of you who are 46 now.
So when you were I'm looking atthat demographic right now so
when you were 22 years old, yougot married.
That stopped as well, hasn't it, thomas, in your friends.
Speaker 3 (41:25):
Yeah, don't see too many early 20s getting married,
so you're 26 years old.
Speaker 2 (41:29):
How many of your friends are married?
Three Out of how many friendsdo you think?
Speaker 3 (41:38):
15 or 20.
I'm also like, is that?
Speaker 2 (41:39):
like 10%.
Speaker 3 (41:41):
Yeah, probably maybe somewhere around there.
I'm also talking about likefriends from high school.
I haven't seen in a coupleyears at this point.
Speaker 2 (41:47):
But yeah, uh, not many, no One or two out of a
whole group of friends, so the46 to 56 year olds now.
You got married at 22 and youryour kids went to school at.
You were 40 years old when yourkids went to college.
Is that right?
22, 32, 42 would make them 20.
(42:11):
So they went to college 18, soyou'd be 40, and then they left
college when you were 42 or so.
So that means, um, had youacted like the previous
demographics acted and that'swhy everything is changing in
wealth here at 46, your kidswould have been out of college
for four years and you would ownyour house and then
(42:34):
retirement's right there, yeah,yeah, no, no.
Well, maybe not right there, butyou know I'm reaching across
the table, so everybody who'sover 50 right now I'm reaching
across the table and slappingthomas because yeah, retire.
So they say 60 is the new 40now, which is pretty funny.
But um, there's lots of 60 yearolds that that act like 40 year
olds you know people.
(42:55):
We didn't even realize until afew years ago that our brains
were elastic, right?
So we were told by the powersthat be that we just forget
things.
An old dog can't learn newtricks, right?
There's all these phrases aboutit.
Well, we discovered in the last10 years only that our brains
are elastic and we can't last 10years, only that our brains are
(43:19):
elastic and we can't.
Hey guys, if we are, live,hello and we're back.
We had a little technicalglitch there for a moment.
I am sorry about that.
We were talking in our nerddomand apparently neither of us is
such a nerd.
Fortunately, thomas is such anerd that he managed to get
everything back up.
So what were we talking about,thomas?
Speaker 3 (43:42):
oh, that's the hard part right there uh, what were
we talking about?
Speaker 2 (43:45):
see, nobody can say, oh, we're too old to remember,
we have no internet, so we don'treally know whether you're
hearing this or not, but if youare, then we love you anyway.
And so we were talking aboutwhat the numbers were for Black
Mountain.
I can't see them anymorebecause we don't have Internet,
but that's OK, and we've got anice reverb going on.
(44:06):
So I'm sorry everybody, Iapologize.
Speaker 3 (44:09):
That was me testing to make sure we're on, and I
believe we should be good now.
Speaker 2 (44:13):
Yay, fantastic.
Good job, thomas.
So we were looking at thenumbers for small town America
essentially and basically sayingthere is double and triple the
amount on the market.
We're back at the levels thatwe were in the crash.
And you just have to trust me,because now we don't have
(44:33):
internet.
It's amazing what happens whenwe don't have technology right.
Really wonderful things usually.
Fortunately, I've got a brainand I'm not relying on it and I
do my research and I know what'sgoing on with the figures
because I run a national programand big city USA is actually
suffering a little bit more thansmall town USA in almost
(44:55):
everywhere in the country, alittle bit more than small town
USA in almost everywhere in thecountry.
So again, if you just tuned in,we're talking about what's
going on with market figuresright now.
Let me come back to what I wastalking about in price cuts.
So price cuts are veryimportant to look at because why
, in six months time, when allthose price cuts come home to
roost, you are going to havesales that will lower.
(45:18):
What does that mean?
Well, they then record withlower prices and the comparables
are much lower, and then thewell over half probably 60, 70,
80 in some areas where peopleare getting mortgages to buy the
homes, the mortgages will getmore and more difficult to get
because the homes aren't comping.
That's get more and moredifficult to get because the
homes aren't comping.
That's exactly what you startseeing.
(45:39):
The appraisals aren't happening.
You've got two choices at thatpoint.
The buyer can pull out, or youcan reduce your price, which a
lot of people do.
So remember.
You can go to cashcpocom.
Cashcpocom skip all thislisting nonsense.
It's a full market value priceoffer.
You can go right there and getan offer on your house without
(46:01):
even thinking about listing it.
Cashgpocom it works all overthe country.
Or we can do a conventionallisting.
Don't do that.
Do a certified pre-ownedlisting.
Where you get the inspection upfront, it's more important than
anywhere, guys.
Where you get the inspection upfront, it's more important than
anywhere, guys.
So you know, keep thinkingabout that and doing that.
(46:23):
So it's very, very I'm soundinglike Trump now it's very, very
important, very, very big.
You've got to think about doingthat, because everybody goes in
eyes wide open at that point,which makes a lot more sense.
Speaker 1 (46:37):
See you next week on the radio, guys this has been
(46:58):
the plain english real RealEstate Show with Rowena Patton.
Visit Rowena and post yourquestions at RadioAshevillecom
or call her at 828-210-1648.
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