May 30, 2025 • 53 mins
The gap between what Americans earn and what homes cost has reached alarming levels, creating what may be the worst housing bubble in history. Unlike previous market disruptions driven by speculation or loose lending, today's crisis stems from a fundamental affordability problem that's reaching breaking point in communities nationwide.
Diving into the ReVenture app's revealing metrics, we explore how downtown Asheville now requires an income of $152,000 to afford a median-priced home while the area's median household income remains around $53,000. This creates a staggering value-to-income ratio of 11:1 – higher than even California's state average of 8:1. The traditional guideline that housing should cost no more than 30% of gross income has become mathematically impossible for many Americans, especially in desirable areas where housing costs have skyrocketed while wages remained relatively stagnant.
This affordability crisis is now triggering market corrections, with home values dropping in 27 states. Florida leads with a monthly decline of 0.55%, potentially a 6.5% annual drop if the trend continues. Following the classic Clément Juglar economic cycle of 7-11 years, we may be entering a 3-5 year correction period where some areas could see cumulative declines of 15-20%. A survey of 1,700 homebuyers reveals 70% cite high prices, not interest rates, as their reason for delaying purchases.
The national landscape presents sharp contrasts in affordability. West Virginia tops the affordability list at 2.8 times median income, while California requires 8 times income for a median-priced home. For those considering selling in the next few years, particularly in areas that have maintained strong values so far, waiting for "the perfect time" might mean missing the current plateau before further declines. This isn't panic time – it's correction time, a natural rebalancing as markets adjust to economic realities.
Ready to discuss what these trends mean for your specific situation? Whether buying, selling, or simply planning ahead, call us at 828-333-4483 for personalized insight into your local market dynamics and strategic options.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good morning.
It's Rowena Patton on the RealEstate News Radio Show and this
is the last Real Estate NewsRadio Show to air on WNC 570.
So as they've made cuts at thestation, they wanted me to
record all of them and I soenjoy doing it live with you.
For the last 13 years onSaturday mornings, however, the
(00:23):
show is continuing as it has formany years on
realestatenewsradiocom.
That's realestatenewsradiocom.
I will take off the link thatsays click to listen live on
there and it will be on thepodcast.
And the podcast has been goingfor gosh many, many years and
(00:44):
more of you track listening tothe podcast than on live radios
these days.
I guess it's just how thingschange, which is probably why
they're making cuts and puttingthe money into the kind of
things that you're tuning intoand tuning into the car and that
kind of thing.
So, love you all.
It's been an amazing ride for13 years and it isn't stopping.
Realestatenewsradiocom and, ofcourse, if you are selling a
(01:08):
home or buying a home, give us acall Anywhere in the country.
We can help you.
We've got an amazing networkaround the country 828-333-4483.
828-333-4483.
A lot of people are listingtheir homes right now, probably
for obvious reason, but, if youhaven't heard, there is a bit of
(01:30):
a shift in the real estatemarket.
So I want to take a minute tointroduce Nick Gurley, who is
the CEO of ReVenture and that'sone of the great resources in
real estate data around thecountry.
I use his resource, which givesme at least 30 data points on
(01:51):
real estate all around thecountry, and it means I can dive
into any zip code and have 30data points on it of all kinds
of different things.
So let's listen to Nick justfor a minute.
On affordability, so hebelieves we're in the worst
housing bubble ever, primarilydue to the fact that houses have
(02:12):
gone up so much and salarieshave not kept up.
So let's listen to how heoutlines what these figures mean
before I dive into them for youin Western North Carolina and
Western North Carolina, ifyou're listening, around the
country, is a pretty good bowweather for what's going on.
(02:34):
Ok, nick, tell us about salaryto afford a house.
What do we mean by that?
Speaker 2 (02:40):
Salary needed to afford a house tells you how
much money you need to make toafford to buy a house in the
different states, metros,counties and zip codes across
America.
This is a great metric forhelping you understand where you
can afford to buy based on howmuch you make, and it's
calculated by taking what thetypical monthly mortgage payment
is for a homebuyer in today'smarket and dividing it by 30%,
(03:03):
based on the convention of notwanting to spend more than 30%
of your gross income on yourhome ownership costs.
And what's great about thisdata is you can actually open up
any zip code in America and seehow the salary to afford a
house compares to the area'smedian income.
Historically, if you see thesetwo lines close together, it
means the housing market isfairly balanced, while,
conversely, if you see thesalary to afford a house surge
(03:23):
up above the local median income, that could be the sign of a
bubble.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
Oof.
Thank you, nick.
That was a lot.
If you would like anyscreenshots of comparing areas,
you are more than welcome.
Just give us a call at828-333-4483.
This is Rowena Patton on theReal Estate News Radio Show 83.
This is Rowena Patton on theReal Estate News Radio Show and
(03:49):
it is our last Real Estate NewsRadio Show that is going to be
aired on WNC 570.
And I wish all my localcolleagues at WNC 570, there's a
few of you left still I so hopeyou have a wonderful time and
it's been great knowing you forthe last 13 years as we've been
airing over there.
We've also been shifting acrossto our podcast, starting about
five years ago six years agomaybe, gosh, I've lost track.
(04:11):
There's a lot of podcasts foryou to view there.
We do lots of additionalinformation at
realestatenewsradiocom.
If you've been thinking aboutfollowing the podcast, now is
the time.
Realestatenewsradiocom, I'm notgoing away, I'm not going
anywhere, still selling lots ofhouses, and we're selling them
(04:32):
all around the country.
Now we can help you whereveryou're listening.
So realestatenewsradiocom andgo and follow the podcast.
Anywhere you listen to apodcast.
Look forward to helping you.
So let's do a deep dive intoincomes.
We were just talking aboutsalary to afford a house, and
(04:53):
it's quite interesting when youlook around Western North
Carolina.
So, for example, in Weavervillewe're at 100, and this is the
salary to afford a median pricedhouse.
So in Weaverville I'm justgoing to round up and round down
, so I'm not reading lots offigures $124,000.
That's vastly above the averagehousehold income, as we all
(05:18):
probably know right.
So actually I'm pulling intothat.
The average median householdincome in that zip code, 28787,
is $77,677.
However, we're looking at theincome that you need to buy a
median size house.
I mean, we all know this rightinnately, that salaries haven't
(05:41):
kept pace with the price ofhouses and that's why we're in
this big bubble.
So right now we're at $125,000to afford the medium priced
house, except the averagehousehold income is $78,000.
You see the problem there.
That's $26,000 or so or sothousand dollars.
(06:04):
Delta.
That's a lot.
It's about half the incomeneeded again to be able to
afford a median size house.
Obviously, that's a problemwhen we go to.
So we just did 28787, that'sWeaverville, north of Asheville,
for those of you who don't livein the area 28804.
So that encompasses northAsheville, and then we've got
(06:26):
28801, which is downtown.
28804, 160,000.
It's nearly 161,000 to afford.
This is taking into account, asNick just told you, the fact
that you don't want to go over30%.
Now, obviously, a lot of peopleare going over that 30% to be
able to afford a house, whichmeans a lot more of your income
(06:47):
is gobbled up, or what dofamilies choose to do, or what
do people choose to do who,maybe you're a server and
earning $40,000 or $50,000 ayear?
What are you supposed to do?
Of course you can rent.
Now, if we look at Marshall,it's $93,000.
That's still kind of high.
If we look at Fletcher, it's116,000.
(07:08):
I'm trying to find a lower onefor you.
Hendersonville so if we go tosouthwest Hendersonville, like
Fruitland area, 95,000.
So it's dropping a bit.
It's still kind of high.
If we look in Asheville proper,we're at 152,000.
To keep it below that 30%,109,000 in 2.8.
So, candler, wait so go west.
(07:30):
2.8715, 109,000.
Like I say, you can always giveus a call 828-333-4483.
I can do this for anywhere inthe country.
I'm going to do California nextand maybe we'll do Colorado too
, because those ones are alwaysso shocking.
Where are we here?
28726, a little tiny pockethere, east Flat Rock, 76,000.
(07:56):
So there we are.
There's not much of a deltabetween the average household
income is 58 and you need 76.
So you can go up a little biton your 30% and actually be able
to afford a house in East FlatRock.
People are going to go to themore affordable areas.
I want to go over to BlackMountain over here and just give
(08:19):
you Black Mountain In BlackMountain that is East beautiful
area east of Asheville $125,000to afford a house.
It's just I'm laughing but it'snot funny guys.
People can't afford to buy ahouse.
Median household income $71,598.
So basically $72,000, but themedian price with the mortgage
(08:43):
payments and everything else,you have to be earning $125,000,
.
But the median price with themortgage payments and everything
else, you have to be earning$125,000.
How is people supposed to buy ahouse?
So that is why Nick Gurley, theCEO of ReVenture, is talking
about the fact that we're in theworst housing bubble ever, not
just since 2006, becauseaffordability is not there, If
(09:05):
you think about it.
So in 2007, when I started inreal estate, salaries were maybe
10% less.
Maybe maybe they were 90%.
We could look that up.
I'm sure that they were five or10% lower than they are now.
Well, guess what when you lookat the average price of a house,
you're not getting much of ahouse below five hundred
(09:27):
thousand dollars.
In ashram it was 176 000 in2006.
That's two and a half, threetimes the amount.
It just doesn't make any sense,right?
Because how can that pocket ofpeople afford to live there?
Of course you know we hear thisconversation going on all the
time, but I think when you lookat actual salaries needed to
(09:49):
afford the medium-priced house,it gets real.
Let's take a look at California.
This one always surprisespeople because there are
actually affordable.
Well, it depends on what youthink of as affordable, I guess
areas of California.
So first of all, I want to lookat it as a broad brush across
California.
That's bringing in the homesthat are more in the valley or,
(10:12):
you know not, on the coast asmuch.
So the salary to afford a house?
Of course this is a broad brushacross California.
I understand there are lots ofdifferences and lots of, just
like there are everywhere elsein the country.
The salary on average to afforda house in california you ready
for it?
205, so 206 000 when you roundit up.
(10:34):
Who earns 206 000?
Of course some people do, buthere's the problem.
It's not the question who earns?
206 000?
It's the median price of themedium household income.
The median household income ishigher than much of the rest of
the states but it's still only$99,000.
(10:55):
So you've got a householdmedian income and that's all
household earners in thehousehold $99,000, that's a lot
right.
But the median income needed tobuy that median priced house is
205,000.
It's over twice.
So how does anybody afford ahome?
(11:17):
So you're starting to see herewhy he's saying we're in this
humongous housing bubble.
So before I dive into these inCalifornia, I want to return to
Nick again, who so eloquentlyoutlines the value to home ratio
now and what that means, andwe're going to do a deep dive in
(11:39):
some just funny numbers inCalifornia and then we'll bring
it back to Western NorthCarolina on the on the same
basis.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
So go for it, nick value to income ratio is a
calculation.
I developed a re-venture appthat compares the typical home
price in an area according toZillow versus a median household
income according to the USCensus Bureau, with the
resulting ratio giving you asense of how big a bubble your
housing market is in the.
The more the value-to-incomeratio is above the long-term
(12:08):
average, the greater thelikelihood of a bubble.
Conversely, if thevalue-to-income ratio goes below
the long-term average, thatcould mean the housing market is
undervalued.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
All right, this is kind of like funny money, funny
numbers, but they're not veryfunny at all.
We're going to do Los Angeles,long Beach, anaheim, that whole
area.
We have a value to income ratioof 10.2 back in 2005.
And then it dropped to 7.06,below the normal line that Nick
was just talking about there,and just stayed below the normal
(12:40):
line and then took a peak up to10.79 in around the 2023 area
and then currently in 2025,10.33.
So I mean, what does that mean?
It means the median householdincome in that area is $95,000.
(13:01):
$95,000.
The home value is 980, medianhouse value is $983,000.
So how does somebody on $96,000afford a $983,000 home?
Obviously you don't.
That's a very high.
It's over 10 times, in otherwords, the income.
That's a really good one,important one to look at Doesn't
(13:26):
necessarily mean prices aregoing down, although in that
area, in that same area, ifyou're remotely interested, we
can definitely go into that.
If we look at home sales, we'reseeing those numbers track down
the home growth.
We're seeing a home growth interms of number of sales days on
(13:46):
market 46.
That's not terrible.
We might like that here.
So all kinds of things going onout there.
Let's bring it back to NorthCarolina and Western North
Carolina specifically to seewhat's going on here and again.
If you've just tuned in828-333-4483.
This is Rowena Patton on theReal Estate News Radio.
(14:08):
You can gorealestatenewsradiocom for the
podcast and to see all of theprevious shows on there.
We have all kinds of topics Arewe in a bubble?
Is the housing market about tocrash?
What to do if you see aflattening market?
Is there what to do when you'regetting multiple offers, how to
(14:30):
navigate around that All kindsof great information for home
sellers and home buyers too.
Give us a call.
We can take snapshots for youfor anywhere in the country
828-333-4483.
And, of course, you can investin the ReVenture app and go look
it up yourself if you want thisgreat resource.
(14:53):
It really is quite an amazingresource that Nick Gurley has
put together.
Okay, so if you ask the averageperson in the street, they would
say that California is going tohave a number way higher than
ours.
So we just looked at Californiawith a 10.4 rate, right?
So 10.4 in the Los Angeles area.
(15:27):
So obviously, in Western NorthCarolina, the house value is 11
times the median householdincome, which is 52,914.
That is, it's clearly nuts,right?
You've got to spend 11 timesyour income.
Back in the old days it used tobe twice or three times the
income and, by the way, you canstill find that in the Midwest.
(15:49):
There are a lot of areas in thecountry where you can find it
to be much less, but Asheville11 times.
So let's go north for a second28804,.
Killian Mountain, woodfin, allthat northern area 7.6 times.
So we've gone from 11 to 7.6times your income.
We go West Asheville 6.8.
(16:12):
So we've got 6.8 times yourincome.
So let's make sure the income'saround the same there 28806,.
They don't have the income onthere, but we know it's
somewhere.
Oh, they actually do.
Median household income is62,000.
So just a little bit more thandowntown Asheville, but you know
, negligible.
The home value they're workingon is 423, 6.82, so seven times.
(16:39):
But still for hot WestAsheville where so many people
want to move to, I'm shocked 6.8times in 28806, the income.
So in other words, let's go toBiltmore Forest 6.5 times.
It's even less 28803.
So we can look into this.
When you're looking to buy ahouse, what does it look like in
(17:00):
terms of the median householdincome, or what do you earn, and
where can we find you homeshere or anywhere in the country.
We want what's right for you.
You know we'll do a deep diveinto the middle of the country
where, remember, we're talkingabout nearly seven times your
income to buy a house in 28803um, which is the Biltmore Forest
area.
Most people would have thoughtBiltmore Forest was more than
(17:23):
downtown Asheville.
So then we have 28805, which iswest east Asheville on the way
to Black Mountain 6.9.
Then if we look at theSwannanoa area, five times.
So no wonder so many people aremoving to Swannanoa, although
that got so hard hit in thehurricane in Helene when that
(17:46):
came through last year.
Black Mountain is 6.8, so seventimes.
We're hovering all aroundWestern North Carolina between
five and seven times, unless yougo downtown Asheville, in which
case we're at 11 times, whichis the same amount as the heavy
areas of California.
That's just scary, guys, right,it doesn't make any sense.
(18:09):
Now if we go down, I'm trying tofind you some small ones
2-8-7-4-2, which is kind of nota whole lot going on down there.
I mean sorry for anybody thatlives there.
I don't mean anything going on,I just meant in terms of it's
very mountainous and you've gota lot less properties.
Five times your income MillsRiver, six times your income.
(18:30):
So if you just if you go justsouth of Fox River, so Mountain
Home, that whole area, that'skind of let me get this right so
southeast of Mills River, 5.3.
So about five times your incomethere if I round it right.
So not so bad on that.
If we look in Canton Canton'sanother one.
(18:52):
Again, there are reasons forthat that local agents you know
if you're moving to the area youmight not know anything about
Canton.
Nothing wrong with Canton atall.
Canton's also once you getthere people just need to expect
to see the old mill propertyand everything that went on with
that.
So you know, take a look aroundand make sure it suits you,
(19:13):
because Canton you only needfour and a half times the income
, the median household incomethere.
Because a lot of people move toCanton because you could afford
more house.
The median house value 300,000.
So a lot of people move toCanton, right, because the house
value is lower and they're ableto buy a house and the median
(19:33):
household income that, probablycommuting back into Asheville,
is 62,000.
So they're pulling up theaverage household income because
they're probably commuting.
That's what happens when anarea becomes very unaffordable
People move out.
We all know that.
That's just common sense, right?
That's what we call a blindingglimpse of the obvious.
(19:55):
Let's have a look at Mars Hillup here.
That might be another one whereit's a bit more affordable.
So still at six times theincome, which is 71,000.
You know, and that changes overtime, obviously, but you know,
depending on where we're at, itdropped in 2022 to 372,000 as a
(20:15):
sorry 54,000 as the medianhousehold income, but that was
probably post-COVID would be myguess.
We had a big peak there in alot of areas.
So I want you, I want to talkjust for a minute.
I'm not telling everybody thatthey should move beautiful, from
beautiful western northcarolina, because, let's be
honest, guys, the reason youlive in an area is because you
(20:38):
love an area.
That's why we live here, that'swhy it's so desirable and
that's why it's so expensive.
It's all about supply anddemand.
So desirable and that's whyit's so expensive.
It's all about supply anddemand.
So the more people that want tolive in an area, the higher the
prices are going to be becausemore people are moving in.
Does that make sense?
It's all it is.
And then, of course, naturaldisasters happen and we had
(21:01):
Helene.
That just was so devastatingfor so many parts of Western
North Carolina, and Chimney Rockactually made it onto the
national news this week, withthe mayor talking about the
awful things that happened.
And you know, some people arejust choosing not to rebuild and
you can't blame them.
Of course, the Asheville areais very resilient.
(21:23):
They come from English,scottish, irish stock back in
the days and well, my, my, it'svery interesting to look at
because so when people run offto the mountains mountains,
which is basically what a bunchof us celtics did we run off to
hide in the mountains then youcan't hide too much anymore
(21:45):
because it's all been built up,of course, but all those years
ago then, um, you get a veryresilient people.
A lot of the celtics are knownfor that anyway, and if there's
any irish and scots and andenglish british people or wasn't
british back in the day, Iguess listening then you know
what I'm talking about.
Now, of course, I've been herefor 30 years next year.
(22:06):
Can you believe that?
Oh my gosh, 30 years.
I have been an American and I'mproud to be an American.
I think there's a song in theresomewhere.
Don't worry, I won't startsinging to you today, don't
forget, if you've just tuned in,this is Rowena Patton on the
Real Estate News Radio show andyou can go to
(22:26):
realestatenewsradiocom.
Realestatenewsradiocom If youhappen to be listening in your
car.
On WNC 570, this is the lastweek that is going out on the
airwaves at 10 o'clock on aSaturday morning.
After 13 years, however, so manyof you have gone across in
droves to the podcast and yes, Idon't care if you're 80 years
(22:49):
old, you still love listening topodcasts.
Don't listen to all these youngwhippersnappers.
They're like, hey, you're tooold to do that.
No, you're notRealestatenewsradiocom.
Find the podcast there.
Look at all the old greatsubjects on real estate and
choose what you love.
Joe Shively, I'll give him ashout out.
So he came on for threeepisodes and one of them.
(23:11):
And podcasts operate a littledifferently, right, because you
can go through all those oldtitles in so many ways.
That's why talk radio is beingtaken over by podcasts.
If you think about even thetalk radio these days okay,
we're talking about Fox News,obviously that is number one in
everything.
So even those talk shows havetheir own podcasts, right, and
(23:34):
we all tune into the podcast,why?
Well, in a lot of ways, we cantune in whenever we want to.
My english came in there and Isaid tune in.
Did you notice that ch?
That's how we spell, tune inand not really it's just the way
we say it.
So, um, a lot of people arelistening to podcasts because
there's a lady in denver acouple of weeks ago, for example
, that called me and asked forhelp listing her house in denver
(23:56):
, colorado, and we have agentsall around the country so we can
do that and she tuned in on anight shift and she said I'm so
grateful to you.
I talked to her on the phone.
She said I'm so grateful youkeep me company during my night
shift and you've done that foryears.
So it was so lovely to hearthat.
If you're listening around thecountry or Western North
Carolina or anywhere locally, Ican help you.
(24:18):
I've done 3,500 plus sales here.
I stopped counting a while ago.
I've helped a lot of familiesmove.
I have lots of programs theLove it or Leave it guarantee,
whereby if you don't love it,we'll sell it free for a while
and then give you a big discountfor 10 years.
So if you've worked with me inthe past, often you listen to
the radio show you'll get adiscount when you sell it with
(24:40):
us, should you decide to sell.
We don't want you to sell,obviously, but should you decide
to sell, or if you want toremodel your house, we've got a
great list of contractors.
We're building that all aroundthe country now because of the
network of agents, so basicallyanywhere.
We've got a great list ofcontractors, we will send them
to you.
You don't pay anything for it.
(25:04):
We'll have the contractors callyou.
You know how hard it is tryingto get a contractor on the phone
.
Sorry if you're a contractor,but you know you're all busy so
we can help with that becausewe've got lists and certainly
locally, what I do is I go outto my list of great contractors
and I say, hey, you know, I'vegot this client in Leicester,
north Carolina or wherever youare, and they would like to do
(25:25):
XYZ and they'd like an estimatein the next three days.
If you can accommodate this,please call Clara at, you know,
828, whatever the number is, andyou'll get two or three calls,
whereas you've been tryingprobably for six months to get
somebody to come out and see you.
So definitely take advantage ofthat.
Wherever you're at, if you needa remodel, let's shift over to
(25:47):
looking at some affordable areasand then we're going to talk
about, if you're thinking ofselling your house, what it
means.
So this figure is going onright now and I don't need to
get worried about the biggesthousing bubble ever.
It's just different.
There are ways you can navigatethis as a seller or a buyer.
(26:07):
Before we get into that in thenext segment, I want to talk for
a moment about where you canafford to live in the country.
Don't forget, this is RowenaPatton, realestatenewsradiocom.
Live in the country.
Don't forget, this is RowenaPatton, realestatenewsradiocom.
Realestatenewsradiocom.
Please write it down if you'relistening.
At 10 o'clock on Saturdaymorning, may 31st, and it's the
(26:34):
13 year anniversary of going outon WNC.
But the show has a much biggerlife than that.
More of you are listening onthe podcast now,
realestatenewsradiocom, becauseyou can listen at.
You know life has changed.
You can listen at yourconvenience.
You can take the podcast withyou in the car, you can listen
at home, you can listen on yourcomputer.
You can even listen on yourRoku or whatever streaming
device you have on your TV.
(26:56):
Yes, really.
So there's lots of ways for youto listen.
You can listen on Amazon.
Did you know that it'savailable on Amazon.
You can go to amazoncom, lookup the Real Estate News Radio
show with Rowena Patton.
Make sure you put my name inthere.
The podcast will come up onAmazon.
So anywhere you can accessAmazon.
(27:16):
I know the husbands are rollingtheir eyes at the wives right
now because they all know how toaccess Amazon.
Oh, I can't use this computerbut suddenly we're on Amazon and
we've got it all going on.
But you can find the podcast onAmazon.
We're on.
Anywhere you like to listen topodcasts.
You can find it Real EstateNews radio show with Rowena
(27:37):
Patton.
Okay, two segments left.
We're going to talk about wherecan you afford to live
according to the index by NickGurley, and we're going to look
at the middle of the country,which is very interesting.
So here we go.
I think the amazing CEO, nickGurley, says it says it best,
(27:59):
and he's the CEO of an appcalled ReVenture and you can
look up this video if you wantto see all the pictures, or I
can send you screenshots of themand you can look it up on
YouTube and it's called HomeValues Are Now Dropping in 27
States 27 states, including ours, by the way, in North Carolina,
if you're listening in NorthCarolina.
(28:22):
I also want to pause for aminute here and say that I've
been following Nick Gurley for along time now, the CEO of
ReVenture.
He's one of the companies thatall of the top news stations go
to to get this data and hedoesn't tend to be bullish about
price drops.
And he doesn't tend to bebullish about price drops.
In fact, his app and all thedata on his app he is
(28:42):
forecasting less of a price dropthan Zillow is forecasting, if
that gives you any kind ofinsight into what's going on
here.
So I've done a deep divethrough it and looked at various
aspects that came out of thatand kind of summarized it for
you.
So let's do a dive and don'tworry, I haven't forgotten about
(29:03):
looking at the affordable areasin the center of the country.
Now, if you've been feelinglike something's shifting,
you're not wrong.
So Nick Gurley, my friend, theCEO of ReVenture, recently broke
this down in a YouTube videotitled Home Values Are Now
Dropping in 27 States.
Now, if you feel likesomething's shifting, you're not
(29:28):
wrong.
Nick Gurley, the CEO ofReventure, recently broke this
down in a YouTube video titledHome Values Now Dropping in 27
States.
Look it up on YouTube if you'dlike to see the full video and
if you want all the graphs andvisuals.
Here's the summary of what Itook away from it.
Right now we're seeing what canonly be called a housing
(29:49):
recession in much of the country, with home values falling in
more than half of the states asof April, that's 27 states.
Normally spring, spring is whenthe market picks up, especially
here in Western North Carolinaand much of the company, it's
the spring selling market.
This year, we're seeing quitethe opposite.
(30:09):
Prices are flat or sliding andit's catching people off guard.
So what's driving the downturn?
Of course we've just coveredthis in some of the previous
segments.
Driving the downturn Of coursewe've just covered this in some
of the previous segments Mainlybuyers are backing off.
Mortgage rates are hoveringaround 7% and, let's face it,
home prices have been out ofreach for a lot of folks.
Even if someone can getapproved, they're looking at the
(30:37):
numbers and saying no thanks.
So let's talk about the statesgetting hit the hardest.
According to the data fromZillow and the ReVenture app,
florida saw the sharpest drop0.55% just in April.
So just over half a percent.
That doesn't sound like much,but if that pace keeps up.
That's a 6.5% annual drop.
And I just want to talk aboutClermont-Jugla here.
(30:58):
We can't do the last show onWNC 570.
Remember realestatenewsradiocom?
We've been podcasting for fiveor six years and we're going to
continue on there, like wealways have.
So, clément Juglar, 1860,economic cycle seven to 11 years
.
And you know, obviously, whenwe're dropping in an economic
(31:20):
cycle that does have an effect.
So we don't expect so if you'vegot a six and a half percent
annual drop in one year, we'relooking at what happens in three
and a half to five and a halfyears.
If the span is seven to 11years which is how pretty, true,
sometimes it's longer,sometimes it's shorter obviously
then statistically at thebottom and you know there's no
(31:43):
perfect, um, a crystal ball onthis, but you've got to work
with something.
So let's look at three and ahalf to five and a half years
being the bottom, right?
So should it go on for threeyears, you're looking at over 20
percent in terms of the drop.
We we went down over 30% lasttime and of course everybody's
saying, oh, it's not going to belike last time, I get it.
(32:04):
And there's lots of areas thatwon't go down if the pace keeps
up like Florida, right.
So Florida's at that 6.5.
And you times that by three andyou're at around 20%.
It's not just Florida andyou're at around 20%.
(32:25):
It's not just Florida, colorado, dc, california.
Many parts of the southeast andwest are seeing similar declines
.
Here in western North Carolinawe're bumping along the top
little increases, some drops.
We're seeing a lot of pricedrops.
I know many of you have beenlistening to the previous shows
where I talk about price cuts.
Price cuts month after monthafter month which in Western
North Carolina it's been about10 months now of price drops
(32:47):
higher.
There's always price drops.
It's like unemployment there'salways unemployment.
There's always foreclosure,right, so there's always a
baseline.
The difference is, with theprice cuts that we've seen
happening in most of the country, other than some spots in the
Midwest and Northeast, the pricecuts are higher than they have
been the year earlier.
That's what we're watching.
(33:07):
So, think about it, when thoseprice cuts come to roost, in
other words, when they finallysell, they drop it.
And a lot of sellers aren'tgetting aggressive enough when
they need to sell their home,when they finally do sell in the
fall or early winter,especially as, think about it,
the spring market is throughmuch of the country and if you
(33:30):
have a spring market, you alsohave a winter market when things
really slow down.
So around August and September,the ones that are having price
cuts now are going to sell.
That means they're going tosell lower, and those lower
comparables are what drive theprice down.
I hope that makes sense.
So, looking at price cuts andagain I've got data points for
every single zip code everywherein the country where I look at
(33:53):
price cuts what's going on?
We also have a full marketvalue cash offer everywhere in
the country now.
So we have to look at thatbecause we need to know whether
it's dropping.
That's not going to help you ifwe buy it now and then you know
you get up to 70% on your firstcheck and then we list it.
Of course, it becomes acertified pre-owned home.
It sells better, it sells somemore, it sells faster.
(34:15):
However, if the prices aredropping, you need to know that.
So we need to get our factstogether when we're looking at
that.
I wish we could make it magic.
We can't, even with AI, trustme.
So here's the thing it's notjust about the price corrections
coming or the rates theinterest rates that are a
problem, it's affordability.
(34:36):
That's the real issue.
According to Nick Gurley, hiswonderful app called ReVenture
did a recent survey of 1,700homebuyers and this showed that
that's a lot, by the way, asurvey of 1,700 people.
You look at the national pollsyou'll show usually they're
(34:57):
using a lot lower numbers thanthat.
So that's a big aggregatednumber of people to talk to.
So the survey showed that 70%said home prices were the reason
they were sitting on thesidelines.
And these are home buyers, notinterest rates, not the economy.
Of course you know that allplays in as well.
Just good old sticker shock.
And for those wondering if westill have a housing shortage,
(35:20):
not anymore.
In most areas inventory'sgrowing fast.
In fact, we now have more homeson the market than at any point
in the last five years.
So sellers who were holding backyou know a lot of you
procrastinate.
I've been there myself.
I was left in a home when myhusband left and I just stuck it
(35:41):
out for five years for someunknown reason.
I wasn't ready and I reallywanted a sale, but just the
trauma of thinking about sellingand clearing out the house and
many of you are in thatsituation and a lot of it is
stuff and things where you don'twant to clear out the house.
I know what that feels like.
However, at some point you'vebeen holding back and you want
(36:01):
to put it on and now you'reseeing the numbers and you're
like, oh my gosh.
So sellers who were holdingback are finally listing and
it's shifting the dynamic.
It's all about supply anddemand again.
Don't get it twisted, though.
It's not happening equallyeverywhere.
So Florida, for example, has23% more inventory than before
the pandemic.
I love that he quotes beforethe pandemic, because inventory
(36:24):
people buying, people sellingreally shifted for obvious
reasons when we had COVID and weweren't even sure whether we
were supposed to go in and showhouses and people were scared to
have people in the housebecause of the pandemic.
So in New York, inventory isstill 45% below pre-pandemic
levels and that's helping tohold prices up.
(36:45):
So what's ahead?
According to the ReVenture app,we're looking at about a half a
percent national decline overthe next 12 months.
But talk about a broad brush,right?
It's different in all areas.
It's even different, you know,block to block and zip code to
zip code, never mind looking atnational decline.
Zillow is even more pessimistic, interestingly calling for a
(37:06):
1.9% drop, but again, it alldepends on location.
Some areas, especially in theMidwest and Northwest, might
even see some growth, just notas fast, most likely, than as
others have seen, while otherslike Arizona, utah, colorado,
texas and Florida may seefurther declines and quite
(37:28):
honestly I think that it's thecanary in the coal mine for the
Midwest and the Northeast.
If you're in those areas andyou're thinking about selling in
the next couple of years, youmay want to get out now at the
top because you're not seeinggenerally massive increases at
this point.
I've been saying this here inWestern North Carolina now
you'll know for two years, likeif you want to sell it, get it
(37:49):
out now.
Yes, you might have lost out ona 1% increase, but you probably
would have got that increasehad you moved somewhere else
anyway.
So it's not all about the dropsand the increases and whatever
mortgage rate you've got.
We move to a place because wewant to be there.
We move into senior livingbecause it's time we right size,
because it's time we're in our50s, 60s and 70s to get rid of
(38:12):
all that stuff and things andrealize the kids aren't coming
back for the holidays anymoreand we've got a four or five
bedroom house.
It just becomes time.
And if you're in your 50s and60s and 70s and 80s and 90s
sometimes I help people evenolder than that, believe it or
not Do you want to wait out theseven to 11 years, statistically
, before we hit the next high?
(38:33):
So if you'd like to do a deepdive into your area, we can go
over it together.
You can pay for the ReVentureapp yourself.
It's a wonderful app.
If you're, you know, in anindustry, or you can afford it,
or you want to do a deep dive onthese figures, it's a wonderful
app and just great resource.
Or we can go over it togetheron Zoom, if you're not local, or
you just want to take a look atwhere you're at, or right here
(38:57):
on my laptop.
If you are local, just give mea call anytime, 828-333-4483.
That line is open 24-7.
Let the receptionist knowyou're looking for a deep dive
on the figures for your home andI'll get back to you as soon as
I can to set up a time Bottomline.
This isn't panic time, it'scorrection time.
(39:17):
It's natural.
It's normal.
All of those of you who are not19 have seen this before.
And those of you who are 19,.
Ask your parents and yourgrandparents, they will tell you
what's been happening on thisbumpy road of real estate that
we all wish that we could timeright.
So we've been through this wildride of record prices and now
the market is doing what marketsdo it's adjusting, and if
(39:41):
affordability returns, so willbuyers.
And also buyers are moving outto areas where it's more
affordable, whether that be themidwest or out 30 minutes, and
then, um, you know, uh,commuting into the downtowns.
That's that's what's happeningin the ashfall area.
You heard the figures about thefact that you have to be 11
times your income to afford tolive in Asheville proper.
(40:03):
That drops a little bit as yougo further out.
The more further out you go,the more it drops, Because
traditionally people haven'twanted to drive for 30 minutes
to commute.
But now, with the advent, I canhear you going.
Yeah, a lot of people work fromhome.
Now, with the advent of workingfrom home, for the mobile
workers, that becomes easier,especially if you're still
(40:25):
relatively close to a highway.
Maybe you drive for a living.
So there's lots of strategiesaround this.
It's not the time to panic.
Stick with us here on the RealEstate News Radio and, of course
, although if you're listeningon WNC, write it down
realestatenewsradiocom,realestatenewsradiocom or look
up the Real Estate News RadioShow with Rowena Patton.
(40:48):
Anywhere you listen to podcasts, you can find Rowena Patton
Real Estate News Radio on Amazon.
Amazon does podcasts as well.
Who knew?
And we'll continue to trackwhat's happening, what it means
for you, whether you're buying,selling or just trying to make
sense of it all We'd love tohave you on the show on the
(41:08):
podcast 828-333-4483.
If you've got something tooffer to people who are selling
or buying homes, or if you're areal estate agent anywhere, we'd
love to have you on so you canpromote yourself and your area
and just give the real truthabout what's going on in your
market.
Okay, so I promised you a deepdive I haven't forgotten into
(41:32):
where is it most affordable?
Let's see if any of thesesurprise you.
So I'll tell you now.
North Carolina is midway, at2.8.
Now, of course, there are lotsof areas in North Carolina.
So it's 2.8 times the medianhousehold income to buy the
median priced house.
In other words, if you're let'ssay you earn $100,000 and the
(41:58):
average price house is $300,000,that would be a score of three.
Hope that makes sense.
So North Carolina is 2.8.
We're substantially higher thanthat in Western North Carolina,
or I do the figures we're over11 times the median income in
downtown Asheville and then therest of Western North Carolina
(42:18):
in my market area is around fiveto eight times the five to
eight instead of 2.8, that tellsyou something, right?
Times the household income.
West Virginia is number one 2.8times the income to buy the
medium priced house.
(42:39):
Iowa is two, three times Kansas3.2, illinois 3.3.
Again, you can call me if youwant this list 828-333-4483.
If you're on social media, justlook up Rowena Patton and ping
me.
You know Facebook, message meor something like that me.
(43:03):
You know facebook, message meor something like that.
And uh, I will give you thenumbers because obviously we're
looking at states here and yourarea is much more important than
the states.
I just gave you my examplewhere we're between 5 and 11
times median income, whereasnorth carolina we're in north
carolina in north carolina as awhole, it's 2.8 times.
So it depends on where you'reat.
More than happy to share thiswith you.
Rowena Patton, all-starPowerhouse brokered by EXP
(43:25):
828-333-8255.
44.83.
Okay, so we got down to Ohio at3.3.
Number six Oklahoma 3.3.
Number seven Mississippi at 3.3.
Number eight Indiana at 3.4.
Louisiana 3.4.
I'll do it.
Let's see if I can do it like adisclaimer now.
(43:45):
North Dakota 3.5.
Nebraska 3.5.
Michigan 3.5.
Arkansas 3.5.
Kentucky 3.5.
Pennsylvania 3.6.
Missouri 3.6.
Alabama 3.6.
Minnesota 3.9.
Texas 3.9.
Alaska 4.1.
Wisconsin 4.2.
South Dakota 4.2.
Maryland 4.2.
(44:06):
Georgia 4.3.
Virginia 4.3.
South Carolina 4.3.
Go South Carolina, just southof us.
Of course I can get to SouthCarolina in 30 minutes if you're
interested.
Connecticut 4.4.
North Carolina 4.5.
Vermont 4.7.
Let's scoot the other way aroundso you don't have to listen to
everywhere.
(44:26):
Let's do the most expensive inthe country California eight,
eight times the averagehousehold income.
It might be medium income, weneed to check on that one, but
it's the household income Eighttimes the household income to
the median priced home.
Montana 6.3 times the income.
(44:48):
Massachusetts 6.3.
Washington 6.2.
Idaho these are the mostexpensive states to live in
Broadbush.
Of course you can still findareas in these states that are
less expensive, right?
So Oregon 6.1.
Colorado comes in at numberseven, at 5.8.
5.8 in New York, 5.7 in Nevada,5.5 in Utah.
(45:10):
Utah comes in at number 10.
Deanna, if you're listening,just letting you know.
And of course, if you go out,it's like anywhere else.
If you go out from the citiesyou'll find something more
affordable.
So you know what I'm going todo.
The rest, because we're almostthere.
Rhode Island 5.5, becauseyou'll move in from somewhere,
even if you're listening.
In Western North Carolina,district of Columbia 5.5.
(45:34):
New Jersey 5.4.
Maine 5.4.
Arizona 5.4.
Florida 5.1.
New Hampshire but that changesdepending where you're at.
In Florida, obviously, newHampshire 4.9.
Wyoming 4.8.
New Mexico 4.8.
Vermont 4.7.
Tennessee 4.7.
Delaware 4.7.
We're all the way back to NorthCarolina at number 23, 4.5.
(45:54):
So we're right in the middle,basically, which is interesting
to note, I think.
But you can really see thatback in the day it might have
been two or three times theincome.
Now, if you look in thosestates that are still affordable
, west Virginia is 2.8.
It was probably 1.5 back in theday times your income, right?
(46:15):
So West Virginia is still 2.8times your income.
Iowa is three times your income, whereas we've got areas of
California coming in at 10 timesyour income and, sadly,
asheville downtown is 11 timesyour income, although we can
find you everywhere aroundWestern North Carolina, maybe
five times your income.
So, right in the middle there,that would put us in the top 10.
(46:37):
So it's not quite as terrible asit sounds sometimes, which
people like to put a spin onthese things.
You know me, I've never likedto put a spin on these things.
I like to tell it as it isRowena Patton Real Estate News
Radio Show.
If you're listening on WNC 570,we love you all.
I love you so much.
You've all been part of mylives.
(46:58):
You're one of my audiences onthe radio and especially in the
days when radio used to get alot more call-ins and we did the
trivia prizes.
Those were the good old daysand I know there's a hardcore of
you listening.
Now I hear it all the time, butI have so many more listeners
on the podcast and then youchoose when to listen.
(47:18):
Realestatenewsradiocom and Ican't wait to see you all on
there and continue this, becauseyou'll know I'm on a mission.
I'm on a mission to give youthe real facts about real estate
and what it looks like for you,you, your household, your
family, what you're trying to doand you can ask any of my
previous clients.
We've got over 220 five-starreviews in the main.
(47:42):
We've got 4.9 overall on Google.
I don't trust Google reviews orany other reviews if they're
all five, because someone'sgoing to get ticked off right.
If you've got Google reviews.
They're all five and you've got10 people who give you the
reviews.
That's 10 friends probably thatare giving them reviews.
Just saying so, someone's goingto get ticked off at some point
, just being realistic there.
So we've got the reviews, I'mover 3,500 sales and now we're
(48:04):
adding sales all around thecountry as well.
Would love to help you withthese strategies.
Any of my previous clients willtell you.
I'll say to you you know what?
I don't want you moving out ofthis house because your income
just dropped.
What do you do?
Let me see if I can help you.
My background's marketing.
I've done this before.
I helped a husband and wifeback in the day.
She was in a supplement sales.
(48:24):
She didn't know how to set itup with funnels and all the
stuff on the internet.
I helped her with that and hewas in construction.
So I found him a great job inconstruction and they got to
keep the house.
I didn't earn anything and theyare what's called clients for
life, because that's what I do.
It's just how I'm wired.
If I weren't wired that way,I'd probably be a billionaire by
now, and I'm not.
And that's okay, because I'mgoing to die knowing I did the
(48:46):
right thing.
Hopefully not anytime soon.
So come on over torealestatenewsradiocom and
listen to the podcast.
I can't wait to see you there,or give me a call 828-333-4483.
And I apologize if you'relistening to this in six months
time, because that's whathappens with the podcast.
You can dive into all kinds ofepisodes.
(49:06):
Why don't we take a look atwhat's on there and the kind of
episodes that you can choosefrom?
So if you're listening rightnow and you want some of these
titles, let's go for it.
Like you're tired of hearing mesaying at this point,
realestatenewsradiocom, that'swhere you can find all of these
titles.
So let's go through the mostpopular episodes.
(49:27):
This was one is incredible.
Coming in at number one guys,this is a four-year-old podcast.
Joe shively, who's also been onthe show.
I said you're coming in atnumber four and he said how come
I'm not number one?
Because you're only sevenmonths old and people keep
downloading them.
The number one the moving homenightmare or best ever show.
(49:51):
537, moving the mountains withTrinity Movers.
That was on March 20th 2021.
So about four years old,amazing, right.
The next one.
Coming in at number twonavigating the real estate
market trends, tips andinnovative strategies.
The next one.
(50:12):
This one's wow.
Coming in at number three get afull market cash offer on your
home show 671.
You don't have to write allthese down, you can just go to
realestatenewsradiocom, click onpodcast Building dreams Joe
Shively on the adventures andinsights of a legendary builder.
I love that one.
That comes in at number four.
(50:33):
Tips on Buying a Second Homecomes in at number five.
Number six All About 1031 TaxDeferred Exchanges.
That's an older show as well.
Here's a three-year-old show.
Coming in at number seven Isthe Real Estate Market Crashing
in Asheville, nc.
So go look at that one and seewhat I was saying three years
ago.
It's amazing.
Healthy benefits of hemp thatwas always a popular one too.
(50:57):
Asheville NC airports TinaKinsley shares the airport
growth.
That's a really popular one.
Next day was the Father's Dayshow.
Isn't that funny Three yearsago.
The art of mastering short-termrental investments Buying and
selling land in Western NorthCarolina Thinking about a
short-term rental.
Mastering the art of painlessdent removal there a completely
(51:17):
different one from a localbusiness For sale by owner.
Show.
Probate Death dying and deviledegg show.
Oh, my, multiple offers on homes.
Yes, that one's four years oldBack when we were getting
multiple offers Too funny, howold are you?
It getting multiple offers Toofunny, how old are you?
It matters when you sell yourhome.
When banks say no, they say yes, scam or worthwhile.
Buying now is stupid.
(51:37):
Home valuation with Abby andHeather Culture change show All
kinds of things on here HOAs,the good, the bad and the ugly.
So you know.
This really helps youunderstand and even though some
of them were timely in terms ofwhat's going on in the market,
nonetheless they're still veryinteresting, I think, to listen
(51:59):
to from a perspective.
So if you're looking at stuffand things in your house,
there's a whole one about that,and you can find all of these
shows at realestatenewsradiocom.
So for those of you listening onthe podcast, I love you dearly.
I love the fact that thenumbers are going up every week.
Please share it with yourfriends.
It's just wonderful,realestatenewsradiocom.
(52:22):
For those of you listening onWANC 570 AM, you hold a special
place in my heart.
You've been listening to me for13 years.
No time to stop heart.
You've been listening to me for13 years, no time to stop
Realestatenewsradiocom, and I solook forward to seeing you all
over on the podcast.
Or just give me a call, do itthe old fashioned way
828-333-4483.
Good morning.
It's Rowena Patton on the RealEstate News Radio Show and this
is the last Real Estate NewsRadio Show to air on WNC 570.
So as they've made cuts at thestation, they wanted me to
record all of them and I soenjoy doing it live with you.
For the last 13 years onSaturday mornings, however, the
(00:23):
show is continuing as it has formany years on
realestatenewsradiocom.
That's realestatenewsradiocom.
I will take off the link thatsays click to listen live on
there and it will be on thepodcast.
And the podcast has been goingfor gosh many, many years and
(00:44):
more of you track listening tothe podcast than on live radios
these days.
I guess it's just how thingschange, which is probably why
they're making cuts and puttingthe money into the kind of
things that you're tuning intoand tuning into the car and that
kind of thing.
So, love you all.
It's been an amazing ride for13 years and it isn't stopping.
Realestatenewsradiocom and, ofcourse, if you are selling a
(01:08):
home or buying a home, give us acall Anywhere in the country.
We can help you.
We've got an amazing networkaround the country 828-333-4483.
828-333-4483.
A lot of people are listingtheir homes right now, probably
for obvious reason, but, if youhaven't heard, there is a bit of
(01:30):
a shift in the real estatemarket.
So I want to take a minute tointroduce Nick Gurley, who is
the CEO of ReVenture and that'sone of the great resources in
real estate data around thecountry.
I use his resource, which givesme at least 30 data points on
(01:51):
real estate all around thecountry, and it means I can dive
into any zip code and have 30data points on it of all kinds
of different things.
So let's listen to Nick justfor a minute.
On affordability, so hebelieves we're in the worst
housing bubble ever, primarilydue to the fact that houses have
(02:12):
gone up so much and salarieshave not kept up.
So let's listen to how heoutlines what these figures mean
before I dive into them for youin Western North Carolina and
Western North Carolina, ifyou're listening, around the
country, is a pretty good bowweather for what's going on.
(02:34):
Ok, nick, tell us about salaryto afford a house.
What do we mean by that?
Speaker 2 (02:40):
Salary needed to afford a house tells you how
much money you need to make toafford to buy a house in the
different states, metros,counties and zip codes across
America.
This is a great metric forhelping you understand where you
can afford to buy based on howmuch you make, and it's
calculated by taking what thetypical monthly mortgage payment
is for a homebuyer in today'smarket and dividing it by 30%,
(03:03):
based on the convention of notwanting to spend more than 30%
of your gross income on yourhome ownership costs.
And what's great about thisdata is you can actually open up
any zip code in America and seehow the salary to afford a
house compares to the area'smedian income.
Historically, if you see thesetwo lines close together, it
means the housing market isfairly balanced, while,
conversely, if you see thesalary to afford a house surge
(03:23):
up above the local median income, that could be the sign of a
bubble.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
Oof.
Thank you, nick.
That was a lot.
If you would like anyscreenshots of comparing areas,
you are more than welcome.
Just give us a call at828-333-4483.
This is Rowena Patton on theReal Estate News Radio Show 83.
This is Rowena Patton on theReal Estate News Radio Show and
(03:49):
it is our last Real Estate NewsRadio Show that is going to be
aired on WNC 570.
And I wish all my localcolleagues at WNC 570, there's a
few of you left still I so hopeyou have a wonderful time and
it's been great knowing you forthe last 13 years as we've been
airing over there.
We've also been shifting acrossto our podcast, starting about
five years ago six years agomaybe, gosh, I've lost track.
(04:11):
There's a lot of podcasts foryou to view there.
We do lots of additionalinformation at
realestatenewsradiocom.
If you've been thinking aboutfollowing the podcast, now is
the time.
Realestatenewsradiocom, I'm notgoing away, I'm not going
anywhere, still selling lots ofhouses, and we're selling them
(04:32):
all around the country.
Now we can help you whereveryou're listening.
So realestatenewsradiocom andgo and follow the podcast.
Anywhere you listen to apodcast.
Look forward to helping you.
So let's do a deep dive intoincomes.
We were just talking aboutsalary to afford a house, and
(04:53):
it's quite interesting when youlook around Western North
Carolina.
So, for example, in Weavervillewe're at 100, and this is the
salary to afford a median pricedhouse.
So in Weaverville I'm justgoing to round up and round down
, so I'm not reading lots offigures $124,000.
That's vastly above the averagehousehold income, as we all
(05:18):
probably know right.
So actually I'm pulling intothat.
The average median householdincome in that zip code, 28787,
is $77,677.
However, we're looking at theincome that you need to buy a
median size house.
I mean, we all know this rightinnately, that salaries haven't
(05:41):
kept pace with the price ofhouses and that's why we're in
this big bubble.
So right now we're at $125,000to afford the medium priced
house, except the averagehousehold income is $78,000.
You see the problem there.
That's $26,000 or so or sothousand dollars.
(06:04):
Delta.
That's a lot.
It's about half the incomeneeded again to be able to
afford a median size house.
Obviously, that's a problemwhen we go to.
So we just did 28787, that'sWeaverville, north of Asheville,
for those of you who don't livein the area 28804.
So that encompasses northAsheville, and then we've got
(06:26):
28801, which is downtown.
28804, 160,000.
It's nearly 161,000 to afford.
This is taking into account, asNick just told you, the fact
that you don't want to go over30%.
Now, obviously, a lot of peopleare going over that 30% to be
able to afford a house, whichmeans a lot more of your income
(06:47):
is gobbled up, or what dofamilies choose to do, or what
do people choose to do who,maybe you're a server and
earning $40,000 or $50,000 ayear?
What are you supposed to do?
Of course you can rent.
Now, if we look at Marshall,it's $93,000.
That's still kind of high.
If we look at Fletcher, it's116,000.
(07:08):
I'm trying to find a lower onefor you.
Hendersonville so if we go tosouthwest Hendersonville, like
Fruitland area, 95,000.
So it's dropping a bit.
It's still kind of high.
If we look in Asheville proper,we're at 152,000.
To keep it below that 30%,109,000 in 2.8.
So, candler, wait so go west.
(07:30):
2.8715, 109,000.
Like I say, you can always giveus a call 828-333-4483.
I can do this for anywhere inthe country.
I'm going to do California nextand maybe we'll do Colorado too
, because those ones are alwaysso shocking.
Where are we here?
28726, a little tiny pockethere, east Flat Rock, 76,000.
(07:56):
So there we are.
There's not much of a deltabetween the average household
income is 58 and you need 76.
So you can go up a little biton your 30% and actually be able
to afford a house in East FlatRock.
People are going to go to themore affordable areas.
I want to go over to BlackMountain over here and just give
(08:19):
you Black Mountain In BlackMountain that is East beautiful
area east of Asheville $125,000to afford a house.
It's just I'm laughing but it'snot funny guys.
People can't afford to buy ahouse.
Median household income $71,598.
So basically $72,000, but themedian price with the mortgage
(08:43):
payments and everything else,you have to be earning $125,000,
.
But the median price with themortgage payments and everything
else, you have to be earning$125,000.
How is people supposed to buy ahouse?
So that is why Nick Gurley, theCEO of ReVenture, is talking
about the fact that we're in theworst housing bubble ever, not
just since 2006, becauseaffordability is not there, If
(09:05):
you think about it.
So in 2007, when I started inreal estate, salaries were maybe
10% less.
Maybe maybe they were 90%.
We could look that up.
I'm sure that they were five or10% lower than they are now.
Well, guess what when you lookat the average price of a house,
you're not getting much of ahouse below five hundred
(09:27):
thousand dollars.
In ashram it was 176 000 in2006.
That's two and a half, threetimes the amount.
It just doesn't make any sense,right?
Because how can that pocket ofpeople afford to live there?
Of course you know we hear thisconversation going on all the
time, but I think when you lookat actual salaries needed to
(09:49):
afford the medium-priced house,it gets real.
Let's take a look at California.
This one always surprisespeople because there are
actually affordable.
Well, it depends on what youthink of as affordable, I guess
areas of California.
So first of all, I want to lookat it as a broad brush across
California.
That's bringing in the homesthat are more in the valley or,
(10:12):
you know not, on the coast asmuch.
So the salary to afford a house?
Of course this is a broad brushacross California.
I understand there are lots ofdifferences and lots of, just
like there are everywhere elsein the country.
The salary on average to afforda house in california you ready
for it?
205, so 206 000 when you roundit up.
(10:34):
Who earns 206 000?
Of course some people do, buthere's the problem.
It's not the question who earns?
206 000?
It's the median price of themedium household income.
The median household income ishigher than much of the rest of
the states but it's still only$99,000.
(10:55):
So you've got a householdmedian income and that's all
household earners in thehousehold $99,000, that's a lot
right.
But the median income needed tobuy that median priced house is
205,000.
It's over twice.
So how does anybody afford ahome?
(11:17):
So you're starting to see herewhy he's saying we're in this
humongous housing bubble.
So before I dive into these inCalifornia, I want to return to
Nick again, who so eloquentlyoutlines the value to home ratio
now and what that means, andwe're going to do a deep dive in
(11:39):
some just funny numbers inCalifornia and then we'll bring
it back to Western NorthCarolina on the on the same
basis.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
So go for it, nick value to income ratio is a
calculation.
I developed a re-venture appthat compares the typical home
price in an area according toZillow versus a median household
income according to the USCensus Bureau, with the
resulting ratio giving you asense of how big a bubble your
housing market is in the.
The more the value-to-incomeratio is above the long-term
(12:08):
average, the greater thelikelihood of a bubble.
Conversely, if thevalue-to-income ratio goes below
the long-term average, thatcould mean the housing market is
undervalued.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
All right, this is kind of like funny money, funny
numbers, but they're not veryfunny at all.
We're going to do Los Angeles,long Beach, anaheim, that whole
area.
We have a value to income ratioof 10.2 back in 2005.
And then it dropped to 7.06,below the normal line that Nick
was just talking about there,and just stayed below the normal
(12:40):
line and then took a peak up to10.79 in around the 2023 area
and then currently in 2025,10.33.
So I mean, what does that mean?
It means the median householdincome in that area is $95,000.
(13:01):
$95,000.
The home value is 980, medianhouse value is $983,000.
So how does somebody on $96,000afford a $983,000 home?
Obviously you don't.
That's a very high.
It's over 10 times, in otherwords, the income.
That's a really good one,important one to look at Doesn't
(13:26):
necessarily mean prices aregoing down, although in that
area, in that same area, ifyou're remotely interested, we
can definitely go into that.
If we look at home sales, we'reseeing those numbers track down
the home growth.
We're seeing a home growth interms of number of sales days on
(13:46):
market 46.
That's not terrible.
We might like that here.
So all kinds of things going onout there.
Let's bring it back to NorthCarolina and Western North
Carolina specifically to seewhat's going on here and again.
If you've just tuned in828-333-4483.
This is Rowena Patton on theReal Estate News Radio.
(14:08):
You can gorealestatenewsradiocom for the
podcast and to see all of theprevious shows on there.
We have all kinds of topics Arewe in a bubble?
Is the housing market about tocrash?
What to do if you see aflattening market?
Is there what to do when you'regetting multiple offers, how to
(14:30):
navigate around that All kindsof great information for home
sellers and home buyers too.
Give us a call.
We can take snapshots for youfor anywhere in the country
828-333-4483.
And, of course, you can investin the ReVenture app and go look
it up yourself if you want thisgreat resource.
(14:53):
It really is quite an amazingresource that Nick Gurley has
put together.
Okay, so if you ask the averageperson in the street, they would
say that California is going tohave a number way higher than
ours.
So we just looked at Californiawith a 10.4 rate, right?
So 10.4 in the Los Angeles area.
(15:27):
So obviously, in Western NorthCarolina, the house value is 11
times the median householdincome, which is 52,914.
That is, it's clearly nuts,right?
You've got to spend 11 timesyour income.
Back in the old days it used tobe twice or three times the
income and, by the way, you canstill find that in the Midwest.
(15:49):
There are a lot of areas in thecountry where you can find it
to be much less, but Asheville11 times.
So let's go north for a second28804,.
Killian Mountain, woodfin, allthat northern area 7.6 times.
So we've gone from 11 to 7.6times your income.
We go West Asheville 6.8.
(16:12):
So we've got 6.8 times yourincome.
So let's make sure the income'saround the same there 28806,.
They don't have the income onthere, but we know it's
somewhere.
Oh, they actually do.
Median household income is62,000.
So just a little bit more thandowntown Asheville, but you know
, negligible.
The home value they're workingon is 423, 6.82, so seven times.
(16:39):
But still for hot WestAsheville where so many people
want to move to, I'm shocked 6.8times in 28806, the income.
So in other words, let's go toBiltmore Forest 6.5 times.
It's even less 28803.
So we can look into this.
When you're looking to buy ahouse, what does it look like in
(17:00):
terms of the median householdincome, or what do you earn, and
where can we find you homeshere or anywhere in the country.
We want what's right for you.
You know we'll do a deep diveinto the middle of the country
where, remember, we're talkingabout nearly seven times your
income to buy a house in 28803um, which is the Biltmore Forest
area.
Most people would have thoughtBiltmore Forest was more than
(17:23):
downtown Asheville.
So then we have 28805, which iswest east Asheville on the way
to Black Mountain 6.9.
Then if we look at theSwannanoa area, five times.
So no wonder so many people aremoving to Swannanoa, although
that got so hard hit in thehurricane in Helene when that
(17:46):
came through last year.
Black Mountain is 6.8, so seventimes.
We're hovering all aroundWestern North Carolina between
five and seven times, unless yougo downtown Asheville, in which
case we're at 11 times, whichis the same amount as the heavy
areas of California.
That's just scary, guys, right,it doesn't make any sense.
(18:09):
Now if we go down, I'm trying tofind you some small ones
2-8-7-4-2, which is kind of nota whole lot going on down there.
I mean sorry for anybody thatlives there.
I don't mean anything going on,I just meant in terms of it's
very mountainous and you've gota lot less properties.
Five times your income MillsRiver, six times your income.
(18:30):
So if you just if you go justsouth of Fox River, so Mountain
Home, that whole area, that'skind of let me get this right so
southeast of Mills River, 5.3.
So about five times your incomethere if I round it right.
So not so bad on that.
If we look in Canton Canton'sanother one.
(18:52):
Again, there are reasons forthat that local agents you know
if you're moving to the area youmight not know anything about
Canton.
Nothing wrong with Canton atall.
Canton's also once you getthere people just need to expect
to see the old mill propertyand everything that went on with
that.
So you know, take a look aroundand make sure it suits you,
(19:13):
because Canton you only needfour and a half times the income
, the median household incomethere.
Because a lot of people move toCanton because you could afford
more house.
The median house value 300,000.
So a lot of people move toCanton, right, because the house
value is lower and they're ableto buy a house and the median
(19:33):
household income that, probablycommuting back into Asheville,
is 62,000.
So they're pulling up theaverage household income because
they're probably commuting.
That's what happens when anarea becomes very unaffordable
People move out.
We all know that.
That's just common sense, right?
That's what we call a blindingglimpse of the obvious.
(19:55):
Let's have a look at Mars Hillup here.
That might be another one whereit's a bit more affordable.
So still at six times theincome, which is 71,000.
You know, and that changes overtime, obviously, but you know,
depending on where we're at, itdropped in 2022 to 372,000 as a
(20:15):
sorry 54,000 as the medianhousehold income, but that was
probably post-COVID would be myguess.
We had a big peak there in alot of areas.
So I want you, I want to talkjust for a minute.
I'm not telling everybody thatthey should move beautiful, from
beautiful western northcarolina, because, let's be
honest, guys, the reason youlive in an area is because you
(20:38):
love an area.
That's why we live here, that'swhy it's so desirable and
that's why it's so expensive.
It's all about supply anddemand.
So desirable and that's whyit's so expensive.
It's all about supply anddemand.
So the more people that want tolive in an area, the higher the
prices are going to be becausemore people are moving in.
Does that make sense?
It's all it is.
And then, of course, naturaldisasters happen and we had
(21:01):
Helene.
That just was so devastatingfor so many parts of Western
North Carolina, and Chimney Rockactually made it onto the
national news this week, withthe mayor talking about the
awful things that happened.
And you know, some people arejust choosing not to rebuild and
you can't blame them.
Of course, the Asheville areais very resilient.
(21:23):
They come from English,scottish, irish stock back in
the days and well, my, my, it'svery interesting to look at
because so when people run offto the mountains mountains,
which is basically what a bunchof us celtics did we run off to
hide in the mountains then youcan't hide too much anymore
(21:45):
because it's all been built up,of course, but all those years
ago then, um, you get a veryresilient people.
A lot of the celtics are knownfor that anyway, and if there's
any irish and scots and andenglish british people or wasn't
british back in the day, Iguess listening then you know
what I'm talking about.
Now, of course, I've been herefor 30 years next year.
(22:06):
Can you believe that?
Oh my gosh, 30 years.
I have been an American and I'mproud to be an American.
I think there's a song in theresomewhere.
Don't worry, I won't startsinging to you today, don't
forget, if you've just tuned in,this is Rowena Patton on the
Real Estate News Radio show andyou can go to
(22:26):
realestatenewsradiocom.
Realestatenewsradiocom If youhappen to be listening in your
car.
On WNC 570, this is the lastweek that is going out on the
airwaves at 10 o'clock on aSaturday morning.
After 13 years, however, so manyof you have gone across in
droves to the podcast and yes, Idon't care if you're 80 years
(22:49):
old, you still love listening topodcasts.
Don't listen to all these youngwhippersnappers.
They're like, hey, you're tooold to do that.
No, you're notRealestatenewsradiocom.
Find the podcast there.
Look at all the old greatsubjects on real estate and
choose what you love.
Joe Shively, I'll give him ashout out.
So he came on for threeepisodes and one of them.
(23:11):
And podcasts operate a littledifferently, right, because you
can go through all those oldtitles in so many ways.
That's why talk radio is beingtaken over by podcasts.
If you think about even thetalk radio these days okay,
we're talking about Fox News,obviously that is number one in
everything.
So even those talk shows havetheir own podcasts, right, and
(23:34):
we all tune into the podcast,why?
Well, in a lot of ways, we cantune in whenever we want to.
My english came in there and Isaid tune in.
Did you notice that ch?
That's how we spell, tune inand not really it's just the way
we say it.
So, um, a lot of people arelistening to podcasts because
there's a lady in denver acouple of weeks ago, for example
, that called me and asked forhelp listing her house in denver
(23:56):
, colorado, and we have agentsall around the country so we can
do that and she tuned in on anight shift and she said I'm so
grateful to you.
I talked to her on the phone.
She said I'm so grateful youkeep me company during my night
shift and you've done that foryears.
So it was so lovely to hearthat.
If you're listening around thecountry or Western North
Carolina or anywhere locally, Ican help you.
(24:18):
I've done 3,500 plus sales here.
I stopped counting a while ago.
I've helped a lot of familiesmove.
I have lots of programs theLove it or Leave it guarantee,
whereby if you don't love it,we'll sell it free for a while
and then give you a big discountfor 10 years.
So if you've worked with me inthe past, often you listen to
the radio show you'll get adiscount when you sell it with
(24:40):
us, should you decide to sell.
We don't want you to sell,obviously, but should you decide
to sell, or if you want toremodel your house, we've got a
great list of contractors.
We're building that all aroundthe country now because of the
network of agents, so basicallyanywhere.
We've got a great list ofcontractors, we will send them
to you.
You don't pay anything for it.
(25:04):
We'll have the contractors callyou.
You know how hard it is tryingto get a contractor on the phone
.
Sorry if you're a contractor,but you know you're all busy so
we can help with that becausewe've got lists and certainly
locally, what I do is I go outto my list of great contractors
and I say, hey, you know, I'vegot this client in Leicester,
north Carolina or wherever youare, and they would like to do
(25:25):
XYZ and they'd like an estimatein the next three days.
If you can accommodate this,please call Clara at, you know,
828, whatever the number is, andyou'll get two or three calls,
whereas you've been tryingprobably for six months to get
somebody to come out and see you.
So definitely take advantage ofthat.
Wherever you're at, if you needa remodel, let's shift over to
(25:47):
looking at some affordable areasand then we're going to talk
about, if you're thinking ofselling your house, what it
means.
So this figure is going onright now and I don't need to
get worried about the biggesthousing bubble ever.
It's just different.
There are ways you can navigatethis as a seller or a buyer.
(26:07):
Before we get into that in thenext segment, I want to talk for
a moment about where you canafford to live in the country.
Don't forget, this is RowenaPatton, realestatenewsradiocom.
Live in the country.
Don't forget, this is RowenaPatton, realestatenewsradiocom.
Realestatenewsradiocom.
Please write it down if you'relistening.
At 10 o'clock on Saturdaymorning, may 31st, and it's the
(26:34):
13 year anniversary of going outon WNC.
But the show has a much biggerlife than that.
More of you are listening onthe podcast now,
realestatenewsradiocom, becauseyou can listen at.
You know life has changed.
You can listen at yourconvenience.
You can take the podcast withyou in the car, you can listen
at home, you can listen on yourcomputer.
You can even listen on yourRoku or whatever streaming
device you have on your TV.
(26:56):
Yes, really.
So there's lots of ways for youto listen.
You can listen on Amazon.
Did you know that it'savailable on Amazon.
You can go to amazoncom, lookup the Real Estate News Radio
show with Rowena Patton.
Make sure you put my name inthere.
The podcast will come up onAmazon.
So anywhere you can accessAmazon.
(27:16):
I know the husbands are rollingtheir eyes at the wives right
now because they all know how toaccess Amazon.
Oh, I can't use this computerbut suddenly we're on Amazon and
we've got it all going on.
But you can find the podcast onAmazon.
We're on.
Anywhere you like to listen topodcasts.
You can find it Real EstateNews radio show with Rowena
(27:37):
Patton.
Okay, two segments left.
We're going to talk about wherecan you afford to live
according to the index by NickGurley, and we're going to look
at the middle of the country,which is very interesting.
So here we go.
I think the amazing CEO, nickGurley, says it says it best,
(27:59):
and he's the CEO of an appcalled ReVenture and you can
look up this video if you wantto see all the pictures, or I
can send you screenshots of themand you can look it up on
YouTube and it's called HomeValues Are Now Dropping in 27
States 27 states, including ours, by the way, in North Carolina,
if you're listening in NorthCarolina.
(28:22):
I also want to pause for aminute here and say that I've
been following Nick Gurley for along time now, the CEO of
ReVenture.
He's one of the companies thatall of the top news stations go
to to get this data and hedoesn't tend to be bullish about
price drops.
And he doesn't tend to bebullish about price drops.
In fact, his app and all thedata on his app he is
(28:42):
forecasting less of a price dropthan Zillow is forecasting, if
that gives you any kind ofinsight into what's going on
here.
So I've done a deep divethrough it and looked at various
aspects that came out of thatand kind of summarized it for
you.
So let's do a dive and don'tworry, I haven't forgotten about
(29:03):
looking at the affordable areasin the center of the country.
Now, if you've been feelinglike something's shifting,
you're not wrong.
So Nick Gurley, my friend, theCEO of ReVenture, recently broke
this down in a YouTube videotitled Home Values Are Now
Dropping in 27 States.
Now, if you feel likesomething's shifting, you're not
(29:28):
wrong.
Nick Gurley, the CEO ofReventure, recently broke this
down in a YouTube video titledHome Values Now Dropping in 27
States.
Look it up on YouTube if you'dlike to see the full video and
if you want all the graphs andvisuals.
Here's the summary of what Itook away from it.
Right now we're seeing what canonly be called a housing
(29:49):
recession in much of the country, with home values falling in
more than half of the states asof April, that's 27 states.
Normally spring, spring is whenthe market picks up, especially
here in Western North Carolinaand much of the company, it's
the spring selling market.
This year, we're seeing quitethe opposite.
(30:09):
Prices are flat or sliding andit's catching people off guard.
So what's driving the downturn?
Of course we've just coveredthis in some of the previous
segments.
Driving the downturn Of coursewe've just covered this in some
of the previous segments Mainlybuyers are backing off.
Mortgage rates are hoveringaround 7% and, let's face it,
home prices have been out ofreach for a lot of folks.
Even if someone can getapproved, they're looking at the
(30:37):
numbers and saying no thanks.
So let's talk about the statesgetting hit the hardest.
According to the data fromZillow and the ReVenture app,
florida saw the sharpest drop0.55% just in April.
So just over half a percent.
That doesn't sound like much,but if that pace keeps up.
That's a 6.5% annual drop.
And I just want to talk aboutClermont-Jugla here.
(30:58):
We can't do the last show onWNC 570.
Remember realestatenewsradiocom?
We've been podcasting for fiveor six years and we're going to
continue on there, like wealways have.
So, clément Juglar, 1860,economic cycle seven to 11 years
.
And you know, obviously, whenwe're dropping in an economic
(31:20):
cycle that does have an effect.
So we don't expect so if you'vegot a six and a half percent
annual drop in one year, we'relooking at what happens in three
and a half to five and a halfyears.
If the span is seven to 11years which is how pretty, true,
sometimes it's longer,sometimes it's shorter obviously
then statistically at thebottom and you know there's no
(31:43):
perfect, um, a crystal ball onthis, but you've got to work
with something.
So let's look at three and ahalf to five and a half years
being the bottom, right?
So should it go on for threeyears, you're looking at over 20
percent in terms of the drop.
We we went down over 30% lasttime and of course everybody's
saying, oh, it's not going to belike last time, I get it.
(32:04):
And there's lots of areas thatwon't go down if the pace keeps
up like Florida, right.
So Florida's at that 6.5.
And you times that by three andyou're at around 20%.
It's not just Florida andyou're at around 20%.
(32:25):
It's not just Florida, colorado, dc, california.
Many parts of the southeast andwest are seeing similar declines
.
Here in western North Carolinawe're bumping along the top
little increases, some drops.
We're seeing a lot of pricedrops.
I know many of you have beenlistening to the previous shows
where I talk about price cuts.
Price cuts month after monthafter month which in Western
North Carolina it's been about10 months now of price drops
(32:47):
higher.
There's always price drops.
It's like unemployment there'salways unemployment.
There's always foreclosure,right, so there's always a
baseline.
The difference is, with theprice cuts that we've seen
happening in most of the country, other than some spots in the
Midwest and Northeast, the pricecuts are higher than they have
been the year earlier.
That's what we're watching.
(33:07):
So, think about it, when thoseprice cuts come to roost, in
other words, when they finallysell, they drop it.
And a lot of sellers aren'tgetting aggressive enough when
they need to sell their home,when they finally do sell in the
fall or early winter,especially as, think about it,
the spring market is throughmuch of the country and if you
(33:30):
have a spring market, you alsohave a winter market when things
really slow down.
So around August and September,the ones that are having price
cuts now are going to sell.
That means they're going tosell lower, and those lower
comparables are what drive theprice down.
I hope that makes sense.
So, looking at price cuts andagain I've got data points for
every single zip code everywherein the country where I look at
(33:53):
price cuts what's going on?
We also have a full marketvalue cash offer everywhere in
the country now.
So we have to look at thatbecause we need to know whether
it's dropping.
That's not going to help you ifwe buy it now and then you know
you get up to 70% on your firstcheck and then we list it.
Of course, it becomes acertified pre-owned home.
It sells better, it sells somemore, it sells faster.
(34:15):
However, if the prices aredropping, you need to know that.
So we need to get our factstogether when we're looking at
that.
I wish we could make it magic.
We can't, even with AI, trustme.
So here's the thing it's notjust about the price corrections
coming or the rates theinterest rates that are a
problem, it's affordability.
(34:36):
That's the real issue.
According to Nick Gurley, hiswonderful app called ReVenture
did a recent survey of 1,700homebuyers and this showed that
that's a lot, by the way, asurvey of 1,700 people.
You look at the national pollsyou'll show usually they're
(34:57):
using a lot lower numbers thanthat.
So that's a big aggregatednumber of people to talk to.
So the survey showed that 70%said home prices were the reason
they were sitting on thesidelines.
And these are home buyers, notinterest rates, not the economy.
Of course you know that allplays in as well.
Just good old sticker shock.
And for those wondering if westill have a housing shortage,
(35:20):
not anymore.
In most areas inventory'sgrowing fast.
In fact, we now have more homeson the market than at any point
in the last five years.
So sellers who were holding backyou know a lot of you
procrastinate.
I've been there myself.
I was left in a home when myhusband left and I just stuck it
(35:41):
out for five years for someunknown reason.
I wasn't ready and I reallywanted a sale, but just the
trauma of thinking about sellingand clearing out the house and
many of you are in thatsituation and a lot of it is
stuff and things where you don'twant to clear out the house.
I know what that feels like.
However, at some point you'vebeen holding back and you want
(36:01):
to put it on and now you'reseeing the numbers and you're
like, oh my gosh.
So sellers who were holdingback are finally listing and
it's shifting the dynamic.
It's all about supply anddemand again.
Don't get it twisted, though.
It's not happening equallyeverywhere.
So Florida, for example, has23% more inventory than before
the pandemic.
I love that he quotes beforethe pandemic, because inventory
(36:24):
people buying, people sellingreally shifted for obvious
reasons when we had COVID and weweren't even sure whether we
were supposed to go in and showhouses and people were scared to
have people in the housebecause of the pandemic.
So in New York, inventory isstill 45% below pre-pandemic
levels and that's helping tohold prices up.
(36:45):
So what's ahead?
According to the ReVenture app,we're looking at about a half a
percent national decline overthe next 12 months.
But talk about a broad brush,right?
It's different in all areas.
It's even different, you know,block to block and zip code to
zip code, never mind looking atnational decline.
Zillow is even more pessimistic, interestingly calling for a
(37:06):
1.9% drop, but again, it alldepends on location.
Some areas, especially in theMidwest and Northwest, might
even see some growth, just notas fast, most likely, than as
others have seen, while otherslike Arizona, utah, colorado,
texas and Florida may seefurther declines and quite
(37:28):
honestly I think that it's thecanary in the coal mine for the
Midwest and the Northeast.
If you're in those areas andyou're thinking about selling in
the next couple of years, youmay want to get out now at the
top because you're not seeinggenerally massive increases at
this point.
I've been saying this here inWestern North Carolina now
you'll know for two years, likeif you want to sell it, get it
(37:49):
out now.
Yes, you might have lost out ona 1% increase, but you probably
would have got that increasehad you moved somewhere else
anyway.
So it's not all about the dropsand the increases and whatever
mortgage rate you've got.
We move to a place because wewant to be there.
We move into senior livingbecause it's time we right size,
because it's time we're in our50s, 60s and 70s to get rid of
(38:12):
all that stuff and things andrealize the kids aren't coming
back for the holidays anymoreand we've got a four or five
bedroom house.
It just becomes time.
And if you're in your 50s and60s and 70s and 80s and 90s
sometimes I help people evenolder than that, believe it or
not Do you want to wait out theseven to 11 years, statistically
, before we hit the next high?
(38:33):
So if you'd like to do a deepdive into your area, we can go
over it together.
You can pay for the ReVentureapp yourself.
It's a wonderful app.
If you're, you know, in anindustry, or you can afford it,
or you want to do a deep dive onthese figures, it's a wonderful
app and just great resource.
Or we can go over it togetheron Zoom, if you're not local, or
you just want to take a look atwhere you're at, or right here
(38:57):
on my laptop.
If you are local, just give mea call anytime, 828-333-4483.
That line is open 24-7.
Let the receptionist knowyou're looking for a deep dive
on the figures for your home andI'll get back to you as soon as
I can to set up a time Bottomline.
This isn't panic time, it'scorrection time.
(39:17):
It's natural.
It's normal.
All of those of you who are not19 have seen this before.
And those of you who are 19,.
Ask your parents and yourgrandparents, they will tell you
what's been happening on thisbumpy road of real estate that
we all wish that we could timeright.
So we've been through this wildride of record prices and now
the market is doing what marketsdo it's adjusting, and if
(39:41):
affordability returns, so willbuyers.
And also buyers are moving outto areas where it's more
affordable, whether that be themidwest or out 30 minutes, and
then, um, you know, uh,commuting into the downtowns.
That's that's what's happeningin the ashfall area.
You heard the figures about thefact that you have to be 11
times your income to afford tolive in Asheville proper.
(40:03):
That drops a little bit as yougo further out.
The more further out you go,the more it drops, Because
traditionally people haven'twanted to drive for 30 minutes
to commute.
But now, with the advent, I canhear you going.
Yeah, a lot of people work fromhome.
Now, with the advent of workingfrom home, for the mobile
workers, that becomes easier,especially if you're still
(40:25):
relatively close to a highway.
Maybe you drive for a living.
So there's lots of strategiesaround this.
It's not the time to panic.
Stick with us here on the RealEstate News Radio and, of course
, although if you're listeningon WNC, write it down
realestatenewsradiocom,realestatenewsradiocom or look
up the Real Estate News RadioShow with Rowena Patton.
(40:48):
Anywhere you listen to podcasts, you can find Rowena Patton
Real Estate News Radio on Amazon.
Amazon does podcasts as well.
Who knew?
And we'll continue to trackwhat's happening, what it means
for you, whether you're buying,selling or just trying to make
sense of it all We'd love tohave you on the show on the
(41:08):
podcast 828-333-4483.
If you've got something tooffer to people who are selling
or buying homes, or if you're areal estate agent anywhere, we'd
love to have you on so you canpromote yourself and your area
and just give the real truthabout what's going on in your
market.
Okay, so I promised you a deepdive I haven't forgotten into
(41:32):
where is it most affordable?
Let's see if any of thesesurprise you.
So I'll tell you now.
North Carolina is midway, at2.8.
Now, of course, there are lotsof areas in North Carolina.
So it's 2.8 times the medianhousehold income to buy the
median priced house.
In other words, if you're let'ssay you earn $100,000 and the
(41:58):
average price house is $300,000,that would be a score of three.
Hope that makes sense.
So North Carolina is 2.8.
We're substantially higher thanthat in Western North Carolina,
or I do the figures we're over11 times the median income in
downtown Asheville and then therest of Western North Carolina
(42:18):
in my market area is around fiveto eight times the five to
eight instead of 2.8, that tellsyou something, right?
Times the household income.
West Virginia is number one 2.8times the income to buy the
medium priced house.
(42:39):
Iowa is two, three times Kansas3.2, illinois 3.3.
Again, you can call me if youwant this list 828-333-4483.
If you're on social media, justlook up Rowena Patton and ping
me.
You know Facebook, message meor something like that me.
(43:03):
You know facebook, message meor something like that.
And uh, I will give you thenumbers because obviously we're
looking at states here and yourarea is much more important than
the states.
I just gave you my examplewhere we're between 5 and 11
times median income, whereasnorth carolina we're in north
carolina in north carolina as awhole, it's 2.8 times.
So it depends on where you'reat.
More than happy to share thiswith you.
Rowena Patton, all-starPowerhouse brokered by EXP
(43:25):
828-333-8255.
44.83.
Okay, so we got down to Ohio at3.3.
Number six Oklahoma 3.3.
Number seven Mississippi at 3.3.
Number eight Indiana at 3.4.
Louisiana 3.4.
I'll do it.
Let's see if I can do it like adisclaimer now.
(43:45):
North Dakota 3.5.
Nebraska 3.5.
Michigan 3.5.
Arkansas 3.5.
Kentucky 3.5.
Pennsylvania 3.6.
Missouri 3.6.
Alabama 3.6.
Minnesota 3.9.
Texas 3.9.
Alaska 4.1.
Wisconsin 4.2.
South Dakota 4.2.
Maryland 4.2.
(44:06):
Georgia 4.3.
Virginia 4.3.
South Carolina 4.3.
Go South Carolina, just southof us.
Of course I can get to SouthCarolina in 30 minutes if you're
interested.
Connecticut 4.4.
North Carolina 4.5.
Vermont 4.7.
Let's scoot the other way aroundso you don't have to listen to
everywhere.
(44:26):
Let's do the most expensive inthe country California eight,
eight times the averagehousehold income.
It might be medium income, weneed to check on that one, but
it's the household income Eighttimes the household income to
the median priced home.
Montana 6.3 times the income.
(44:48):
Massachusetts 6.3.
Washington 6.2.
Idaho these are the mostexpensive states to live in
Broadbush.
Of course you can still findareas in these states that are
less expensive, right?
So Oregon 6.1.
Colorado comes in at numberseven, at 5.8.
5.8 in New York, 5.7 in Nevada,5.5 in Utah.
(45:10):
Utah comes in at number 10.
Deanna, if you're listening,just letting you know.
And of course, if you go out,it's like anywhere else.
If you go out from the citiesyou'll find something more
affordable.
So you know what I'm going todo.
The rest, because we're almostthere.
Rhode Island 5.5, becauseyou'll move in from somewhere,
even if you're listening.
In Western North Carolina,district of Columbia 5.5.
(45:34):
New Jersey 5.4.
Maine 5.4.
Arizona 5.4.
Florida 5.1.
New Hampshire but that changesdepending where you're at.
In Florida, obviously, newHampshire 4.9.
Wyoming 4.8.
New Mexico 4.8.
Vermont 4.7.
Tennessee 4.7.
Delaware 4.7.
We're all the way back to NorthCarolina at number 23, 4.5.
(45:54):
So we're right in the middle,basically, which is interesting
to note, I think.
But you can really see thatback in the day it might have
been two or three times theincome.
Now, if you look in thosestates that are still affordable
, west Virginia is 2.8.
It was probably 1.5 back in theday times your income, right?
(46:15):
So West Virginia is still 2.8times your income.
Iowa is three times your income, whereas we've got areas of
California coming in at 10 timesyour income and, sadly,
asheville downtown is 11 timesyour income, although we can
find you everywhere aroundWestern North Carolina, maybe
five times your income.
So, right in the middle there,that would put us in the top 10.
(46:37):
So it's not quite as terrible asit sounds sometimes, which
people like to put a spin onthese things.
You know me, I've never likedto put a spin on these things.
I like to tell it as it isRowena Patton Real Estate News
Radio Show.
If you're listening on WNC 570,we love you all.
I love you so much.
You've all been part of mylives.
(46:58):
You're one of my audiences onthe radio and especially in the
days when radio used to get alot more call-ins and we did the
trivia prizes.
Those were the good old daysand I know there's a hardcore of
you listening.
Now I hear it all the time, butI have so many more listeners
on the podcast and then youchoose when to listen.
(47:18):
Realestatenewsradiocom and Ican't wait to see you all on
there and continue this, becauseyou'll know I'm on a mission.
I'm on a mission to give youthe real facts about real estate
and what it looks like for you,you, your household, your
family, what you're trying to doand you can ask any of my
previous clients.
We've got over 220 five-starreviews in the main.
(47:42):
We've got 4.9 overall on Google.
I don't trust Google reviews orany other reviews if they're
all five, because someone'sgoing to get ticked off right.
If you've got Google reviews.
They're all five and you've got10 people who give you the
reviews.
That's 10 friends probably thatare giving them reviews.
Just saying so, someone's goingto get ticked off at some point
, just being realistic there.
So we've got the reviews, I'mover 3,500 sales and now we're
(48:04):
adding sales all around thecountry as well.
Would love to help you withthese strategies.
Any of my previous clients willtell you.
I'll say to you you know what?
I don't want you moving out ofthis house because your income
just dropped.
What do you do?
Let me see if I can help you.
My background's marketing.
I've done this before.
I helped a husband and wifeback in the day.
She was in a supplement sales.
(48:24):
She didn't know how to set itup with funnels and all the
stuff on the internet.
I helped her with that and hewas in construction.
So I found him a great job inconstruction and they got to
keep the house.
I didn't earn anything and theyare what's called clients for
life, because that's what I do.
It's just how I'm wired.
If I weren't wired that way,I'd probably be a billionaire by
now, and I'm not.
And that's okay, because I'mgoing to die knowing I did the
(48:46):
right thing.
Hopefully not anytime soon.
So come on over torealestatenewsradiocom and
listen to the podcast.
I can't wait to see you there,or give me a call 828-333-4483.
And I apologize if you'relistening to this in six months
time, because that's whathappens with the podcast.
You can dive into all kinds ofepisodes.
(49:06):
Why don't we take a look atwhat's on there and the kind of
episodes that you can choosefrom?
So if you're listening rightnow and you want some of these
titles, let's go for it.
Like you're tired of hearing mesaying at this point,
realestatenewsradiocom, that'swhere you can find all of these
titles.
So let's go through the mostpopular episodes.
(49:27):
This was one is incredible.
Coming in at number one guys,this is a four-year-old podcast.
Joe shively, who's also been onthe show.
I said you're coming in atnumber four and he said how come
I'm not number one?
Because you're only sevenmonths old and people keep
downloading them.
The number one the moving homenightmare or best ever show.
(49:51):
537, moving the mountains withTrinity Movers.
That was on March 20th 2021.
So about four years old,amazing, right.
The next one.
Coming in at number twonavigating the real estate
market trends, tips andinnovative strategies.
The next one.
(50:12):
This one's wow.
Coming in at number three get afull market cash offer on your
home show 671.
You don't have to write allthese down, you can just go to
realestatenewsradiocom, click onpodcast Building dreams Joe
Shively on the adventures andinsights of a legendary builder.
I love that one.
That comes in at number four.
(50:33):
Tips on Buying a Second Homecomes in at number five.
Number six All About 1031 TaxDeferred Exchanges.
That's an older show as well.
Here's a three-year-old show.
Coming in at number seven Isthe Real Estate Market Crashing
in Asheville, nc.
So go look at that one and seewhat I was saying three years
ago.
It's amazing.
Healthy benefits of hemp thatwas always a popular one too.
(50:57):
Asheville NC airports TinaKinsley shares the airport
growth.
That's a really popular one.
Next day was the Father's Dayshow.
Isn't that funny Three yearsago.
The art of mastering short-termrental investments Buying and
selling land in Western NorthCarolina Thinking about a
short-term rental.
Mastering the art of painlessdent removal there a completely
(51:17):
different one from a localbusiness For sale by owner.
Show.
Probate Death dying and deviledegg show.
Oh, my, multiple offers on homes.
Yes, that one's four years oldBack when we were getting
multiple offers Too funny, howold are you?
It getting multiple offers Toofunny, how old are you?
It matters when you sell yourhome.
When banks say no, they say yes, scam or worthwhile.
Buying now is stupid.
(51:37):
Home valuation with Abby andHeather Culture change show All
kinds of things on here HOAs,the good, the bad and the ugly.
So you know.
This really helps youunderstand and even though some
of them were timely in terms ofwhat's going on in the market,
nonetheless they're still veryinteresting, I think, to listen
(51:59):
to from a perspective.
So if you're looking at stuffand things in your house,
there's a whole one about that,and you can find all of these
shows at realestatenewsradiocom.
So for those of you listening onthe podcast, I love you dearly.
I love the fact that thenumbers are going up every week.
Please share it with yourfriends.
It's just wonderful,realestatenewsradiocom.
(52:22):
For those of you listening onWANC 570 AM, you hold a special
place in my heart.
You've been listening to me for13 years.
No time to stop heart.
You've been listening to me for13 years, no time to stop
Realestatenewsradiocom, and I solook forward to seeing you all
over on the podcast.
Or just give me a call, do itthe old fashioned way
828-333-4483.
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