Fantasy Extravaganza: Helping You Dominate Your League

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Fantasy football success requires focusing on player roles rather than chasing big names. When ADP and Vegas betting lines disagree, the smart move is to follow the money since oddsmakers have real financial incentives to get their projections right.

• Quarterback tiers help determine who's worth an early pick versus waiting
• Wide receiver mid-round values like DK Metcalf and Xavier Worthy offer excellent return
• Paying attention to injuries and suspensions creates early-season opportunity
• Vegas props can serve as tiebreakers when rankings are close
• Running back strategies include hero running back or spread and snipe approaches
• The 50-20 rule for auctions: reserve 20% of budget for final 50% of nominations
• Rookies and sleepers should be drafted according to timeline: now, soon, or later
• Building a bench portfolio with two starters, one climber, and one detonator

Drop your boldest draft call in the comments or DM—name and round—and we'll read the best ones on air. If it hits, I'll give you credit on the show. Follow, rate, and review to help boost the show, and share with your league mates to give them the edge too.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
I guess there's only one way to find out.
Let's do it to it right 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0.
All engines running, lift off.
We have a lift off, alright,alright and welcome to episode

(00:22):
27.
The fantasy extravaganza of riceon the mics.
I am your host, your hype manand your bad influence at the
auction table.
If you're new, we run this showlike a live room, big energy
for the crowd.
But a direct line to you inthose earbuds listening to me if
you're on the treadmill intraffic or sneaking this in at

(00:44):
work, yeah, I'm talking to youin those earbuds.
Listening to me If you're onthe treadmill in traffic or
sneaking this in at work, yeah,I'm talking to you.
Here's the North Star today,the guiding light, if you will.
Big fantasy versus the house.
Everybody and their mothers gottakes, but the house, the house
has prices.
The lines, the props, the wintotals.

(01:05):
Those aren't vibes andguesstimates, those are
risk-adjusted truths.
So if you want that Marty McFlyalmanac edge, you don't ignore
Vegas, you weaponize it.
So ADP and Vegas disagree.
Always follow the money.
The theme for this episode isgoing to be draft roles, not

(01:26):
arguments.
I'll pay for certainty but I'llstash for chaos.
So here's the grocery list.
First quarterbacks and not theusual welcome to WatchMojo.
Here's the top 12 snooze fest.
We're going tiers with intent,who you can pony up for, who you

(01:47):
can steal.
The top 12 snooze fest.
We're going tears with intent,who you can pony up for, who you
can steal, and a couple QB2swith true top five ceilings.
Then we'll hit wide receivers,some mid-round hammers, followed
by some injuries andsuspensions that are quietly
clearing early season runways.
Mike Evans, managers, I see yougrinning ear to ear.
I'll be mixing in some do notdrafts and some must haves as

(02:10):
they become relevant throughoutthe episode.
From there the spice rack opensup.
We got hot takes and the Vegaslens, cortland Sutton's monster
line and the case for JamarChase chasing history.
See what I did there and thencheck in on some guys against
their numbers that the booksjust really can't afford to get

(02:32):
wrong.
I'll show you how to let propsnudge your ranks and how win
totals break ties on draft night.
After that we're on to runningbacks and strategy the meat and
potatoes where titles are won,hero running back versus zero,
wide receiver strategies andwhat it actually looks like in
real bills.
I'm also holding committeecourt for Washington,

(02:54):
jacksonville and the Jets, andevery dollar is a player.
So we'll talk auction stratstoo, the 50-20 rule and how to
use that little $2 nominationtrick you guys used to clown me
for until it won you a league.
Then we'll finish up with asweet treat from the candy aisle
.
Rookies and Sleepers whateverybody loves.

(03:15):
This is where we hoard thestuff that the algorithm hasn't
caught up to yet and line upsome deep cuts.
Ambiguous rooms are whereleagues are won, so we're
shopping there on purpose.
Rookies now, sleepers later.
Score in September, spike inDecember.
Oh, and one more thing thisseason I'm starting a segment

(03:37):
called the Receipts Corner.
You drop your boldest call,I'll drop mine, and we live to
see who tells the tale.
If yours hits, I'm reading mineand we live to see who tells
the tale.
If yours hits, I'm reading iton air with your app Today's
homework.
Tell me that one player you'lloverpay for Name and round.
Okay, I want the truth too.
I'll reach for Purdy in theseventh.

(03:59):
I'm shoving Sutton to the fifth.
Say it with your chest.
All right, take a deep breath.
I'm going to work the room, butI'm going to coach you through
your draft while I do it.
This is the episode where youfind your edge.
What separates you from theguys in your league drafting two
defenses?
Let's grab the steering wheel.
The leaders go first.

(04:21):
I'm talking quarterbacks who'sworth it and who you can let
someone else worry about.
In the words of Danger Russ,let's ride Tranquility Base here
.
The Eagle has landedQuarterbacks.
The captain of the ship in reallife, but not always the make
or break when it comes tofantasy.

(04:42):
Here's the mission.
Don't pay a name tax unlessyou're buying a superpower.
The theme Draft roles, notarguments, and I'm about to save
you two rounds of value Tierone guys.
I call them the cheat codesJosh Allen, lamar Jackson, jaden

(05:03):
Daniels and Jalen Hurts.
If you pay up here, you'rebuying a weekly floor and
rushing touchdown installation.
Right, lamar gave us midweekscare, foot, got stepped on.
He's fine, so take a breaththere.
And nothing has changed fromlast year at all.
So if you're buying DerrickHenry, he's an ageless wonder

(05:28):
and Lamar has gotten hungrierafter last year at all.
So if you're buying, derrickHenry is an ageless wonder and
Lamar has gotten hungrier afterlast year, you should have no
worries about drafting himwhatsoever.
Allen and Hertz well, they'repretty much souped up.
Goal line backs in quarterbacknumbers, strong running games on
both squads and talented enoughwide receivers that the defense
is not going to know whothey're going to have to.
Game plan for Daniels.
Well, daniels is electric buthe's a little pricey.

(05:52):
So there's a potentialsophomore slump on the horizon.
Just be a little cautious, butdon't be afraid to draft him
with the upper echelon guyseither.
Make sure you double-check yourleague scoring system and just
make sure the juice is worth thesqueeze.
But the rule of thumb if one ofthese guys slips past market

(06:13):
price in your room, you breakthe glass and you jump all over
them.
You may be passing on a prettydecent running back to take one
of these guys, or even a prettydecent receiver, but if you of
these guys, or even prettydecent receiver, but if you're
willing to pay the price for him, you're basically replacing
that running back two that youwould have drafted with a
quarterback one and a runningback three.

(06:36):
Now tier two these are thepocket kings and a sprinkle of
legs.
That's Joe Burrow, patrickMahomes and Baker Mayfield.
Burrow is my favorite, at costat least.
If he stays healthy, he belongsin that tier one row with the
other guys, but he doesn'talways stay healthy Volume and

(07:01):
elite receivers and a hungrythree-down running back and a
huge arm.
He led the league in attemptslast year.
Since his identity it's notchanging at all either, because
the defense is still terribleand that basically builds for
late-game comebacks and hurlingthe ball 60 times a game for JB.
Take him, don't look back Now,say what you want, but Mahomes

(07:27):
is still Mahomes, okay, justunderstand that the top six
fantasy quarterback ceilinghasn't exactly been automatic
for him lately, because Caseylikes to run the ball a little
more now.
But they came out slow last yearand honestly I think they
rested on their laurels knowingthat they'd win the AFC West, no
problem.
Something tells me, aftergetting embarrassed in the Super

(07:50):
Bowl last year and this beingKelsey's retirement tour, I have
an inkling that they're goingto come out swinging and remind
everybody who they are.
Baker is the last in this tierand honestly, he's a value if
the room insists on letting himslide to.
You had a career year on allfronts and following the trends

(08:13):
of previous year.
It usually doesn't happen twoyears in a row, so bake in some
regression, but do not be afraidto draft him if it's for the
right price.
Now tier three the sweet spotguys.
That's Bo, nix, kyler Murray,dak Prescott, justin Fields,

(08:33):
brock Purdy.
This is where you bully yourleague.
These are the guys you grabwhen no one else is paying
attention and all of a suddenthey look up and they finish top
five in the quarterbacks.
So nicks is coming off a qb6stretch last year between weeks
5 and 18 and has now establisheda serious rapport with

(08:54):
courtland sutton, who is a truewide receiver one.
It's another year in seanpayton's offense and they added
evan ingram, rj Harvey, so thatshould open up plenty of passing
lanes for a second-year player.
The slight worry is thatDenver's defense is really good,
so there's a possibility ofgame script.

(09:14):
They go up, the defense clampsdown and Bo doesn't throw no mo.
Kyler, kyler Murray, volatility,but has Konami legs.
Trey McBride has fullyestablished himself as a serious
weapon and Marvin Harrison Jrhas put on some weight in the

(09:35):
offseason and is trying toreally embrace that bully wide
receiver.
One role, not to mention JamesConner, is still a solid running
back that teams are going tohave to worry about.
The slight worry with Kyler isyou're just going to have to be
ready for a dip in points whenthat new call of duty comes out.
Dak Prescott might be the bestvalue of any quarterback this

(09:58):
year, and I mean that seriously,in the years that he's stayed
healthy.
Fantasy-wise at least, he isthe reincarnation of Tony Romo
and is a true top fivequarterback, adding Pickens to
line up across from Lamb.
Well, to put it bluntly, I mean, they can't double team both of
them right, and there really isno running game to speak of

(10:21):
either, and I fully expect Dakto throw the ball at least 50
times games.
So for a 10th round or later.
Honestly, it simply can't bebeat.
The caveat with him is theo-line is nowhere near what it
used to be, so I would expecthim holding onto the ball and
expect some sacks, which couldunfortunately lead to some

(10:43):
injuries.
Brock Purdy is this year'smarket's most disrespected
poster child.
He was QB 14 even with all theinjuries last year, so you can
draft him at a price this year.
That's like undeniable.
If CMC returns to form andPirosol shapes into what he

(11:05):
looks like he's going to be,there's so much great value to
be had with purdy now.
The downside besides pierce allthe wide receiver depth is
lacking, to say the least, andpurdy has been known to shit the
bed from time to time, to putit lightly.
And the last name in this tieris my boy, justin Fields.

(11:29):
I'm not being a homer, hisceiling belongs in tier one, but
in reality there are going tobe some games that are just
complete stinkers.
But the reports of Brees Halllining up in the slot and
linking back up with hisfavorite college receiver and

(11:51):
adding in a revamped powerhouseO-line he could easily rush for
600-plus yards.
Plus Vegas has his rushingtouchdowns over under at 6.5.
So he's going to sniff the endzone at least a couple times.
I'm willing to take the risk inat least a couple times.
I'm willing to take the risk insome late rounds of drafts with
him.
Now, tier four these are thedart boards with upside Jared

(12:16):
Goff, caleb Williams, drake, may, jordan Love, trevor Lawrence,
jj McCarthy, cj Stroud, bryceYoung.
By the way, tier 4, all good,solid quarterbacks.
This is the hit the greennumber or you don't pay the
cover, aka the roulette wheelguys.
May and McCarthy are thestandouts of this group and

(12:38):
Bryce Young, as a bargain binQB2, could have some QB1 weeks
in his range if his late seasonaccuracy from last year sticks
and Tetretto and McMillanhoovers in targets like he's
supposed to.
So those are them.
These are three QB2s with truetop five potential.

(13:04):
I'm going to start with JustinFields.
As I mentioned already, rushingis the skeleton key here.
We've already seen therun-heavy ceiling.
Now he's got no Russell Wilsonlooking over his shoulder and a
defensive-minded head coach witha run-centric roster.
Yes, I admit the Jets passingpie chart is pretty small

(13:27):
outside Garrett Wilson, butthat's fine.
The gamble I'm taking on him isdesigned runs and broken plays
for explosive runs.
If he plays 17, he can finishtop five without throwing 35
touchdowns.
It's definitely possible.
Next on that list is Drake May.
Drake May is a guy that I'vealways been really big on since

(13:49):
college.
He's the rare young gun whoalready put together a QB 14
season last year on a brokenoffense.
Now he gets an adult on line.
He gets a real veteran widereceiver one in Stephon Diggs
and they drafted TravionHenderson and is primed to beat
out Ramond J Stevenson for easyyak yards and checkdowns all day

(14:12):
.
On top of it, he has whatanalysts like to call deceptive
speed and runs more than peoplethink.
Enough to smooth out the badweeks at least.
Not to mention the schedule,for the AFC East is the easiest
of all the other divisions.
So the market still prices himlike a hope and a dream, but I'm
pricing him like a plan.

(14:34):
Last but not least, jj McCarthy.
He is the cheapest ticket tothe fireworks show this year.
He's indoors for 40% of theseason.
He has an elite play calleroffense, not to mention you get
Justin Jefferson, tj Hodgson andJordan Anderson as training

(14:55):
wheels to help him along.
We just watched this staff turnSam Darnold from a QB 31 into a
top 10 finish, after doing whatno quarterback does anymore and
sitting for a year to learnMcCarthy's deep ball and under
pressure composure from Michigantranslates so clean into this
system you draft him as your QBtoo and, honestly, you accept

(15:18):
the possibility that you mightnever mention the rest of the
year If you wait at quarterback.
Take two from the fields MayMcCarthy and party group One
will hit when they do.
You look like you planned itall along.
So now that we got the tearsout of the way, how do you draft

(15:39):
these guys?
What's the tactics?
What do we do for our roster,our roster?
Well, here's how it goes.
When you decide to pay up insingle quarterback leagues, you
only pay tier one value if itfalls to you, or you build like
a fragile early core that likesome boomer bust guys and you

(16:03):
need that weekly floor superflex.
Slash two quarterback leaguesthat's a different animal.
You try your best to get one ofthe tier, one or two guys and
then, while everybody else ispanicking and there's a run on
quarterbacks, you just stack toptier running backs, receivers,
tight ends, the best of the best, and you fill them in where you

(16:25):
can.
Then around the ninth or tenthyou snag a high upside guy and,
worst case, you drop them andgrab somebody else.
Stacks without the tax.
Everyone loves the quarterbackwide receiver combo, but don't
chase the wide out premiums justto stack.
Let stacks come to you.
Burrow and chase yeah, that'sgreat if you can work it out.

(16:48):
But Purdy and Pearsall, at thecost you get them for, might
land you two high-end skillplayers.
Same thing with May and Diggs.
It's a mid-round luxury.
Fields and Garrett it's viableif the board cooperates.
And auction guardrails, auctionstrategies don't let a bidding

(17:15):
war make you emotional.
If Lamar clears your presetnumber by $3, whatever, let
someone else buy the paradefloat.
Who cares?
With that money you didn'tspend you can buy two 20-point
starters for the change change.
So now to close it out, two guyson my list that are do not
draft guys and it's nothingagainst them.
I actually really like both ofthem as a player and I think

(17:37):
they're great for their teams.
But fantasy wise, stay away.
Let them be somebody else'sproblem.
Jared goff at a top 12 price isa trap.
There's zero rushing, the occhange.
They play a lot of gamesoutdoor compared to last year

(17:58):
and a touchdown rate that's justbegging for regression.
Like a like Amon Ra, I like SamLaporta, but I just stay away
for Jared Goff.
Other one on that list is CaleWilliams.
He's another one.
I love the talent.
I think he's going to do bigthings in this league, but right
now, for fantasy, I'm pricesensitive, to say the least.

(18:22):
Look, if your room pushes himto like the mid rounds or
something, just let him.
Let somebody reach for him.
Whatever.
They're high on Ben Johnson,they're high on all the.
Let him.
I'd rather have Purdy MayMcCarthy two, three rounds later
.
Okay, build a better team.
Let them take Caleb.
Don't worry about him.
Okay, that's it.

(18:44):
Your quarterback plan is now amenu, not just a coin flip.
If you miss the elites, you'renot waiting, you're targeting
two darts with some real topfive paths.
But if you do pay up, make itcount.
Remember, the theme of today isdon't draft arguments, draft

(19:08):
roles.
Let's slide over to widereceivers, which there is an
abundance of, and ADP is slow toadjust to injuries and
suspensions.
You can buy week one volumebefore the room even notices
what you did.
Pierce all truthers, warm upyour vocal cords.

(19:33):
You are on the clock.
Ah, yes, the divas, the widereceivers, the deepest aisle in
the grocery store, which isexactly why most people get lost
in it.
But here's how we're shoppingtonight.

(19:54):
We don't chase logos, we don'tgo for the high-end brands, we
chase the roles.
First, free air, yard share,red zone, looks Depth at.
This position means you canwait.
If you're waiting with someintention, zero wide receiver

(20:15):
truthers, you're about to feelseen, and everyone else.
Well, you're leaving with amid-round blueprint that you can
use for some serious value.
So, zero wide receiver strategy, but with a steering wheel.
Let's say you open up runningback quarterback tight end.

(20:35):
Well, here is the exact widereceiver pocket that you should
be living in.
So take your cart aisle byaisle, see everything that's on
sale and then throw everythingright in this basket Round five
wide receiver ones at a widereceiver two price.

(20:56):
First on the list is DK Metcalf.
Drafters are severelyunderpricing the move to
Pittsburgh.
He is now the only meaningfulalpha in the Steelers passing
game and Rodgers, even with hisage, notoriously funnels his
wide receiver one double-digittargets every game.

(21:17):
So that's volume plus end zoneequity in round five.
That can't be beat.
Next on the list Xavier Worthy.
Did you know?
Last year he was the widereceiver 10 during fantasy
playoffs and posted a .6 fantasypoints per route ran, not ball

(21:39):
caught per route ran.
So with Rasheed Rice'ssuspension and Mahomes' top
field stretching ability andsecond chance play ability, he's
a great addition to your roster.
Set it.
Take him, don't worry aboutit.
Round six this is where theimmediate volume comes in.

(22:01):
My boy, tetratoa McMillan.
I've been on him all season.
I even commended Carolina fortaking him in my draft episode
earlier in the year.
He's got the rookie tag with aveteran target share.
He's a camp leader and he's gota second year quarterback
trying to make a name forhimself.
Easily going to see about 120plus targets and at six foot

(22:27):
five I'm gonna.
I'm gonna take the gamble thatat least 20 of those targets are
going to be red zone targets,so buy the first read usage, not
the bad branding ofcarolina.
Next on the list is CalvinRidley, easily one of my
favorite mid-round snags thisyear.
He had great splits with asemi-competent quarterback play

(22:51):
last year and now it's numberone overall draft pick, cam Ward
, who is a leader amongst men.
He has a rocket of an arm andRidley sees less target
competition.
That's clean.
Wide receiver two work who willbehave like a wide receiver one
most weeks.
Okay, now we're on to roundseven and eight.

(23:12):
These are kind of the ceilingcap guys.
Still very good, but you knowit's getting late
early.
Jordan Addison one of theleague's best touchdown rates.
Through two seasons he's gothuge home run ability, being
across from Justin Jefferson.

(23:33):
Now his three-game suspensionis a little bit of a problem,
but it also bakes in a discount.
So if he falls to you in theright place, snag him, bury him
on the bench and week four, whenhe drops 17, you can DM me with
a thank you card.
Okay, stefan Diggs older, sure,best days behind him maybe, but

(23:58):
he got in shape.
He avoided the pup list and isthe clear wide receiver one in
an offense that actually added alittle bit of infrastructure.
Drake May has great accuracyand he's got no one else to
throw to.
He's going to feed him the ball.
So you're buying targets here.
You're not really buying thenostalgia.
So when people point at you andsay, oh, diggs, whatever, just

(24:21):
know he's going to get abouteight to ten targets a
game.
Next on the list, jamesonWilliams Kind of falls into that
Jordan Addison category.
And yes, I've been lukewarm, tosay the least, on Jared Goff.
He doesn't offer any rushingability and his TD percentage
from last year is begging forsome regression, but it's a good

(24:44):
thing.
I'm not talking about draftingJared Goff here.
I'm talking about snagging awide receiver that finished with
1,000-plus yards and seventouchdowns.
He delivered three top sixweeks and from week 10 on he was
a wide receiver, 10.
J-mo is still a big value atthe right number and their new
offensive coordinator circledhim and said this is a breakout

(25:06):
year for him.
So if your league snoozes andhe slides, take the speed and
live with thevolatility.
Now we get into kind of sketchy, kind of not rounds nine, round
10, but it's also some freeweek one volume, right.
So Matthew Golden, green Baythey finally, after 23 years

(25:32):
spent a first round pick on awide receiver and, yes, that is
a real stat.
So that alone should tell youexactly how they feel about him.
But if you need more convincing, sure, in college he was a
force at Houston and then whenhe transferred to Texas, he
became the man at Texas.
So in a wide receiver roomthat's filled with guys who are

(25:56):
really good but seems like noone can step up and claim the
wide receiver role, golden hasthe ability to be that guy and
I'm actually really banking onGolden becoming the golden boy
of Green Bay.
I think him and Jordan Love aregoing to build a great
relationship and you're going tobe really
happy.
You snagged him late.
Now, from one golden boy to theother, ricky Pearsall Shanahan

(26:24):
said that him and DemarcusRobinson were the two most
consistent wide receivers incamp.
Well, demarcus Robinson issuspended for three games and
Brandon Ayuk is out untilprobably week six We'll see and
Juwan Jennings is battling acalf injury.
This kid got shot before camplast year and an inch to the

(26:47):
left he was dead.
He still made it back by weekfive.
I'll draft him on that factalone.
Pierce Hall is the man.
He's gonna be a great pickupfor your team.
Now the lottery tickets.
The late, oh god, I gotta fillthe spot.
Who do I take picks?
Well, don't waste that, that'svalue.

(27:09):
First on the list darnellmooney, from atlanta.
He was quietly wide receiver 31last year, free volume while
everyone is staring at drakelondon.
Yes, he could put up 20 or hecould put up two, but for an
11th rounder, 12th rounder, he'sa hell of a bench filler.

(27:31):
Same thing goes for Marvin MimsWeeks, 13 to 18.
Last year he was wide receiver22.
And that was only on 41% ofroutes.
If that number comes up, theefficiency can definitely come
uptoo.
Cedric Tillman, cleveland.
God who knows what's going onat quarterback in Cleveland?

(27:52):
They don't even know what'sgoing on at quarterback in
Cleveland, but after last year,when they traded, cooper Tillman
actually beat out Jerry Judy intargets per route run and yards
per route run.
So again, these are lategambles, but late gamble.
High upside, worst case, he'swaiver wire fodder, who cares?

(28:13):
So, with that being said, wehave some injury and some news
from the offseason.
Aka, pay attention and you'llwin in September.
San Francisco, like I justmentioned, demarcus Robinson
suspended three games.
They just traded for Sky Moorefrom Kansas City.
Decent player, but the routethat you want to take is

(28:41):
Pearsall.
While Ayuk ramps up inJennings' heels, pearsall is
textbook with vacancy targets.
Will come In Tampa Bay, jalenMcMillan, straight to the IR
landed on his neck weird, see ya, middle
season.
Chris Godwin is still on thepup.
So translation Mike Evans, thetarget.
Hog, this isn't just like aconsolidation thing either.

(29:04):
Hog, this isn't just like aconsolidation thing either.
It's a record chase script forthe big man.
So McMillan out and Godwinramping.
Tampa has every incentive toforce feed Mike Evans early to
keep the offense one moving andto keep his receiving streak
alive, which they proved lastyear.
They have no problem doingwhatsoever.

(29:24):
If he does it again this year,he breaks Jerry Rice's
consecutive 1,000-yard receivingrecord.
Now, I don't know if you knowthis.
It's not every day you get tochase Jerry Rice for a record.
So yeah, they're 100% going tofeed him.
And I'm already on Mike Evansover for the season.

(29:46):
Vegas has him set at 950 yardsover under Way, over Hammer the
over.
So he's not only a safe widereceiver too, he's a weekly
volume anchor With the narrativewind at his back.
They're going to feed him likecrazy.

(30:07):
Minnesota anchor with thenarrative wind at his back,
they're gonna feed him likecrazy.
Minnesota Justin Jefferson isback in practice, limited but
he's.
He's gonna play week one.
And with Jordan Addison,suspension.
That basically equals easytargets.
Just a funnel to JJ don't be abig brain, don't try and galaxy
brain it.
If you take JJ at the top, setit and forget it.
It is what it isright.
Washington Terry McCorin alittle scary, scary Terry is

(30:33):
scaring the drafters.
He wants a contract.
He's holding out.
There's backfield drama.
Debo's gadget touches will be athing, I guess, but that's so
volatile and the price at whichhe's going, I'm going to stay
away.
I might stay away from Terrytoo.

(30:53):
Unless something gets settledbefore the season starts, I
think I'm out on Terrytoo.
The Saints still don't knowwho's going to start week one.
Week one is in a week, just forthe record.
Look, even if some form ofstability happens to break up
the clouds and dissipate the fog, I'm out.

(31:16):
I'm out on all Saints receivers.
I'm out on Chris Olave.
I am out on Rashid Shahid.
The only player I might touchis Kamara, just for check down
central, and even that it's likeat the right discount, I'm good
on anything Saints Rememberwhen ADP and Vegas disagree,

(31:42):
follow the money.
The house doesn't get rich bythrowing random things out
there.
Now some make or break profileshere.
Drake, london, high pick here,late first round, early second,
mid second, maybe even healready gave you the breakout

(32:04):
with Panics.
He showed you the blueprintwith panics.
Last year the target sharespiked up 39 percent in just a
small sample size.
So look, even if that sustains,or even if it goes down to you
know, 31, 32 percent, I thinkyou're looking at a top five
wide out with drake london,london.

(32:24):
He is a pure talent.
I just think nobody's been ableto get him the ball.
The other one we're looking athere JSN, jackson, smith and
Jigba 100 catches, 1,100 yardsand six touchdowns last year
with a sluggish start.
Now, no Metcalf and say whatyou want.

(32:46):
Sam Darnold is capable enoughto feed the ball to him.
Okay and honestly, with how theSeahawks look and how I project
them to come out this year, I'mbanking that they're going to
be chasing most games, whichleads to a great positive game
script forJSN.
Now on the other end of it,some guys I'm just flat out on

(33:09):
Some do not draft, I'm good, besomebody else's problem.
Have fun with them guys.
And first on that list, tyreekHill.
Look the age curve yards aftercarry decline.
The deep ball inefficiency fromlast year.
Not to mention Tua seems tohave really soured on him.

(33:31):
After his comments at the endof the season last year he was
like I'm out, I'm out of here.
Tua came flat out in a pressconference and said yeah, you
know we're gonna have somerelationships to rebuild
here.
And not to mention Vegas.
Again, always go by Vegas.
His receiving line is sketchylow.
They're kind of begging you totake it.
The price is the problem withTariq.

(33:53):
Okay, later rounds if he slips,sure, but early to mid round
two, I'm out, no thanks.
And then Travis Hunter.
You know, sorry, two-way roll,great, cool, can't wait to watch
it.
Hope he does well, butfantasy-wise, that caps your

(34:17):
wide receiver share, that capsyour snap count and he can be
the amazing football player.
But this ain't college, no moreman.
Double the snaps is double theinjury risk.
It's just.
I think I'm good on travishunter.
I hope for the best for him.
I prove me wrong, please, but Ithink I'm out all right, that's

(34:38):
it.
You got your cart, everythingis loaded up.
It's time to hit checkout.
Don't walk into the widereceiver aisle in panic.
Buy the rolls, buy thevacancies and let Vegas be your
friend for once.
Let them be the tiebreaker whenyour gut and ADP are arguing
with each other.

(34:58):
If you hear yourself debatingon two players and the clock is
starting to tick down and youdon't know who to take, that's
your cue to remember that UncleRice told you to draft the one
with the cleaner path to eightto ten targets a
week.
Up next, we turned up the flamea little bit.
Let's start cooking this meal.
We got hot takes and we got theVegas lens on things.

(35:20):
We're going to stack bold onbold, then sanity.
Check some of the playersagainst their numbers the house
is using to separate the studsfrom the duds.
Stay tuned.
Time to turn up the heat.

(36:00):
Ladies and gentlemen, it's timeto start cooking this meal.
Welcome to hot takes and theVegas
Lens.
This is the part of the showwhere we season the stew and
then we let the house tell ushow spicy is actually edible.

(36:21):
So these are my receipts.
If they hit, I'm insufferable,and I told you so.
If they miss, well, we werejust, you know, pressure testing
the market.
I'm kidding Mostly, but yeah,in the name of football and bar
food, we will start with the hotwings fight here.

(36:42):
So let's plate this properly.
We're going to start warm, moveon to some sweat and then hit
it with the ghost pepper andbetween each one we'll wipe off
our brow a little bit andcross-check the logic so you
know you can draft with theupside without burning the
board.
First on the list, our mediumhot wing, our medium take,

(37:03):
cortland Sutton goes for 1,200yards and 10 touchdowns this
year.
So why that works Well, bo Nix,year two red zone trust, that's
already been established.
He had 10 touchdowns two yearsago and eight touchdowns last
year and he's the first read forthe whole season.

(37:26):
He's their number one.
The jump is going to be theyardage, but that's a bet on
efficiency and the rapportbetween the two players.
Need weekly touchdown equity inthe middle rounds.
Yep, he's the hat that you canwear all fall
Hotter.
You say Hotter, okay, well, allright.
Hot wing, hotter, okay, well,all right.

(37:48):
Hot wing, uh, no, bears, widereceiver finishes top 36 in half
point.
Ppr per game.
It's not a talent take, it's a,it's a math take.
Look, caleb's arm is real, but2024's time to throw and
pressure to sack rates weren'tfriendly, to say it nicely.

(38:11):
And Ben Johnson, new head coach.
He tends to throttle pass ratewhen the run game is going.
Add in Colson, loveland andLuther Burden just sucking up
targets over the middle.
There's just too many mountsand not enough cake to feed a
top 36 per game.

(38:31):
Even hotter, you say thehottest you can handle, okay.
Well, how about this?
Jamar Chase becomes the first2,000-yard wide receiver in NFL
history.
And you're saying, holy shit,that's so

(38:53):
hot.
Well, cincinnati's identity ispass, pass, pass and check down,
pass on fourth down, coupledwith a defense that literally
couldn't stop a nosebleed toquote Bart Scott Scott and
invites shootouts, and aquarterback that is not afraid

(39:13):
of shootouts.
Chase scales with volume, hewins at every depth and he uh,
he creates yards after the catchlike the old pipes screensaver.
Any of my older headsunderstand that one 17 healthy
games from Burrow and Chase withhigh game totals all year long.
If things break the right way,mathematically we are within

(39:40):
striking distance of seeingsomething crazy.
I mean, that is the champagneshelf, that is the top, top
shelf.
We acknowledge the odds and areembracing the ceiling.
If you're going to shoot big,you might as well shoot for
something ridiculous, right?

(40:00):
So now that the irrational hasbeen thrown out there, let's get
to the Vegas side of things theprops that nudge the rankings
we dreamed, but now we priceright.
So these are the tickets thatI'm going to personally be
placing and how they should tiltyour draft board of who you're

(40:22):
thinking about drafting.
So you should always think ofprops as guide rails for your
rankings.
Right?
The Vegas is again not in thebusiness of losing money.
The house always wins.
This is.
Every line that they put out isperfectly curated.
Like every year, you say, ohgod, they had it at 55 and a
half and he hit 54.

(40:42):
Like how does vegas know?
You know that's always the line.
So these are some of the propsthat I love and you should
acknowledge some of those props,not just mine.
You should do your own homeworkon guys you want to draft.
If they have a suspiciously lowprop for the season, vegas
usually knows soanyway.
Anyway, first off, the uh, theveterans anchors.

(41:05):
That's what I'm going to callthis the veteran anchor list.
Mike Evans, mike Evans, overunder for the season is 950
yards and I'm taking over.
We talked about it already,with McMillan going to the IR
and Godwin having to ramp backup and the record-chasing script
.
That is an easy equation forbeing force-fed early.

(41:26):
So we already like this.
This and consolidationstrengthens it.
He's a wide receiver too, withwide receiver one weeks
incoming.
Next Travis Kelsey over 700yards.
His number is 700 yards.
I know he's old and I know he'sgetting there.
Whatever Mahomes safety valvehasn't sniffed under 800 yards

(41:49):
in his career, even on downyears, and I understand that
manage for January is a realthing.
But 701 is a super beatablenumber.
Next, sam Laporta, keeping itin the tight ends list 675 and a
half.
I'm going over.
Look, regression Still landsnorth of the line.

(42:10):
Possession roll does the heavylifting.
He'll be fine.
There might be a littleregression but he'll be okay.
Now how about some tutters?
Everybody loves a goodtouchdown, right.
Marvin Harrison Jr Six and ahalf touchdowns on the season
OverEight.
Last year as an underused,quote-unquote rookie got

(42:31):
stronger.
Gonna have even more red zonetargets over cd lamb seven and a
half touchdowns.
It's actually good value inthis.
It's a cautious over, butthere's good value in this.
He's only done it once butdallas this year.
I'm telling you you're gonna beamazed at how much d but Dallas
this year.
I'm telling you, you're goingto be amazed at how much Dallas
throws this year.
They don't have a running gameto speak of.

(42:52):
Eight is a fair expectation.
If he lands on seven, he landson seven, but I like my chances
with eight.
Cortland Sutton six and a halftouchdowns way over.
I mean, you just heard it, wejust called for 10.
So if you like the role and youlike the quarterback and you
like him, six and a half is ajoke Hammer it

(43:12):
Now.
Yardage how about yardages?
Everybody loves littlereceiving yards.
Bijan Robinson 375 receivingyards on the season that's
insane.
Over.
He's got usage, versatility anddesign touches.
With a semi-rookie quarterback,there is going to be plenty of

(43:38):
checkdowns when Penix can't makethe read Now.
On the other hand though,jameer Gibbs 425 receiving yards
I'm going under.
Look, I love the player.
He deserves to be drafted superhigh up.
But distribution Amon Ra,jameson Williams, sam Laporta,
the OC shift all this is goingto play a role in his usage.

(44:04):
Honestly, I kind of see himactually rushing more out of the
backfield early and with likean occasional check down or like
a swingpass.
George Pickens 900 receivingyards over, even if he's a
little bit of a head case.
He has an expanded route tree.

(44:25):
He has great hands and,honestly, a lot of the early
focus is going to be on CD.
So he's going to be opening thepost.
He's going to be open over themiddle.
He's going to have a big, bigtarget share going his way to
start and then eventually teamsare going to go okay, we've got
to start giving Pickens hisrespect and then that's going to

(44:45):
open it up for CD.
But he's going to have a nicecushion and he'll probably go
over later in the season.
It might be close but I'm goingover Justin Jefferson 1,250
receiving yards, 1,250 receivingyards Over.
Look, don't overthink it.
He's got elite hands.

(45:06):
He's an elite separator and hasproven that it doesn't matter
who the quarterback is.
If he has a fully healthyseason, 1,400 yards are
incoming.
I'm telling you Marvin HarrisonJr.
I'm big on him.
If you couldn't tell by howmuch I've been gassing him up
this whole podcast, his numberis 975 receiving yards on the

(45:28):
year we're going over.
So again, leaning into the widereceiver one role, uh, weight
gain to bully and create evenmore separation, and he is still
a big play waiting to happen.
Talent cashes it in100.
Now to the other side, theportfolio paradox, I guess, AKA

(45:53):
the things that it doesn't makesense, but I bet it happens
right.
So, same offense, trey McBride,another one, a monster tight
end, four and a half touchdownsI'm actually going to go under.
So the past couple years he'shad like three, two and like one
, I think one in his rookie year.

(46:13):
He's a chain mover, that's hisrole.
But when it gets down into thered zone the pie chart is Kyler
on a broken play, james Connerup the middle or Marvin Harrison
Jr one-on-one outside.
That's what it is, so I'm goingunder four and a half.
Or Marvin Harrison Jr 101outside, that's what it is, so

(46:33):
I'm going under four and a half.
Maybe he lands a four.
Look, I got him in one of myleagues.
I hope I'm wrong, but I'm goingunder.
Jamar Chase 1,300 receivingyards Under.
Yes, yes, I know, I know theatomic take that I just said

(46:54):
five minutes ago.
This is a median versus aceiling thing.
Okay, the fantasy plan bakes insky high, unbelievable upside.
Right, the hard-earned money.
Respects variance targets,competition and injuries.
Okay, surprise, adults can holdtwo ideas at the same

(47:16):
time.
Bet Jamar Chase to have 2,000receiving yards and it's
probably plus, I don't know1,500.
But under 1,300 yards on theseason is plus money, and over
is like minus 180.
So get some plus money, why not, right?
Okay?
So those are the player propbets that I like, but let's zoom

(47:41):
out a little more, okay?
And just to go on record andkeep myself accountable for all
you good folks listening outthere, I'm going to do my best.
Mike Francesa impression andspeed round some win total
over-unders, okay.
Okay, I'm just kidding, I'm notgoing to do that the whole time

(48:01):
.
Also, if player props guidemicro decisions, team win totals
should guide macro tiebreaks.
When your tiers are like flat,you don't know who to pick.
Like, if you're choosingbetween two wide receiver threes
and you really just don't know,let the higher win total be the

(48:21):
one of the team you take.
So anyway, all right, let'sjust I'm going to rattle these
through, right?
Okay so, afc East Bills 11.5,over.
They win the division.
Run away with it sucks.
Dolphins 7.5, under.
They stink.
Patriots 7.5, also no bet.
They might be good, they mightnot.
That might land right on numberI'm out.

(48:43):
Jets 5.5, little homer over.
Schedule's easy.
It's going to be ugly, butfunctional.
They probably get tosix.
Afc North the toughest divisionin the land in my opinion.
Ravens 11 and a half.
I'm going under, but just bythe half.
They land at 11.

(49:04):
Bengals nine and a half.
I'm going to go over.
They get to 10.
Same thing they land just abovethe number and I'm actually I
think I'm going to take them towin the division.
Plus 280 is goodvalue.
Browns under 4.5.
They don't know what the hellthey're doing.
Steelers 8.5.
This is the tough one withRodgers, who knows We'll see 8.5
.
I'm going to go no bet.

(49:25):
They could land on eight.
They could land on nine.
It's a coin flip,right.
Afc South Texans eight and ahalf.
I'm going to go over.
Colts seven and a half.
I'm going under.
Daniel Jones, anthonyRichardson Good luck.
Jags seven and a half no bet.
I'm leaning towards the under,but I'm not willing to put money

(49:49):
.
I don't know they could get toeight.
This division is terrible.
Somebody always beats somebodyin overtime or there's a tie or
something.
Titans this is the spicy one.
Titans are five and a half.
I'm taking the over and I'mactually taking them to win this
division.
They're plus 800.
And worst to first alwayshappens in the
NFL.
Afc West Broncoscos nine and ahalf.

(50:14):
I'm taking the over.
They land right at 10.
Chiefs 10 and a half over.
Don't bet against Andy Reid.
Raiders under.
They fight hard, they lose alot of close games.
They probably land at six andthe Chargers big upset under the
what if team?
What if this guy stayed healthy?
What if they did it under?
They probably landed eight winsunder.

(50:36):
Now nfc excuse me nfc did youknow in the nfc east for the
last 15, not one team has wonthe division in back-to-back
years.
So sorry, eagles, you're morethan likely out, starting with
the Cowboys seven and a half,big over

(50:58):
Over.
I think they win the divisionat like 10 games.
I know that the schedule istough, but they have the talent.
Giants on five and a half undersorry, too many questions.
Will russ be able to do it?
When can jackson dark come in?
Is my league neighbors healthy?
Who's running the ball?
The schedule so under five anda two, eight, too much shit

(51:19):
going.
On.
Eagles ten and a half no bet.
Hangover, super bowl, hangover,ish.
They honestly.
They probably land at 10, maybenine, but make the wild card.
But no bet, I'm not willing toput it on them.
Commanders nine and a half alsono bet.

(51:40):
Look, I love jayden daniels,but volatile wide receiver and
running back rooms going onright now there's a potential
sophomore slump for the kid.
Look, if forced I guess I wouldtake the under at nine, but I'm
good, I'm not putting any moneyon that
one.
Nfc North Bears seven and ahalf under.

(52:01):
I like them in 2026, not somuch in 2025.
Lions nine and a half no bet.
Coordinators changing around.
They could win eight or theycould sneak out 11.
I'm out, no good.
Packers nine and a half also nobet.
Being a real pussy here no bet.

(52:22):
They're probably laying righton the number, to be honest with
you, and I actually probablybooked them as a division winner
.
But they probably land at nineor ten.
And Vikings eight and a half.
I'm taking the over.
Justin Jefferson and JJMcCarthy, I think, becomes a
real thing and the defense isgoing to be good enough to keep
them alive.
Nfc South Falcons seven and ahalf over.

(52:45):
The pieces finally gel together.
It figures itout.
Panthers 6.5.
No bet.
They probably land on a numberat 6.
Maybe even 5.
Saints 4.5 under Quarterback isundecided this late.
No thanks, honestly, they'reprobably picking number one
overall next year.
And the Bucs 9.5.

(53:05):
I'll take the over 10 wins.
Wild card Evans record.
Chase Baker's good, not 2024good, but good enough and that's
fine, honestly, they probablyactually win the
division.
Nfc West Cardinals 8.5, under.
They probably land on 8.

(53:26):
The team is fun for fantasy,but as a team in general, in
real life football, no good.
Rams nine and a half.
No bet.
Stafford is hurt, he's not hurt.
They don't know I'm good, I'mgood, I'm putting my money on
that.
Nothanks.
Nine and a half.
49ers nine and a half.
I'm taking the overconditionally.

(53:47):
If Christian McCaffrey plays 17games, they run away with the
division.
Handle it.
If not, I'll probably stilltake the over.
They could win 8, but theyprobably win 10.
And Seahawks 7.5.
I'm taking the under.
O-line concerns attrition goingon.

(54:09):
Sam Darnold, I don't know.
Under, I'm good, probably winssix games.
To be honest with you.
Okay, that'sit.
Stamp the envelopes.
You heard it, you heard it here, bro.
You heard it, I got them.
Those are my over-unders.
Stamp the envelopes AFCdivision winners Chiefs, bengals
, titans, bills.
Nfc division winners Niners,packers, falcons, cowboys.

(54:31):
And fuck it.
Just for fun, let's say it's aBills-Cowboys Super Bowl.
God bless us,huh?
So now you're asking yourselfIan, this is all fun and dandy
and I love to hear your gamblingpicks and I want you to make me
so much money.
But how does this apply todraft night?
And I want you to make me somuch money, but how does this

(54:52):
apply to draft night?
Well, two players tied in yourranks.
Take the one whose prop you'rebetting over on and whose team
total you like, debating Suttonversus a similar mid-round wide
receiver.
You're literally on Sutton,over six and a half touchdowns.
Draft your conviction Sweatinga rookie.
Well, if the book posts aconservative line and you like

(55:12):
the over, take the over, takethe rookie.
That's the green light.
Let Vegas show you the way,right, all right, the spices
have been applied, the railshave been installed, the
receipts are now printedUp.
Next, the part of fantasy thatwins leagues, running mags and

(55:35):
draft strategies Hero runningmag versus zero.
Wide receiver Auction hacksthat actually beat a 16-team
room.
Every dollar is a player right,so let's spend like villains

(55:58):
running max, running max,running max.
Gone are the days of adrianpeterson and ladanian thian
Thompson being true three-downworkhorse, kick-your-ass running
backs.
The depth at the wide receiverposition is insane nowadays and

(56:20):
with committees popping up leftand right, it's really important
that you get your running backselection correct to win your
league.
It's really important that youget your running back selection
correct to win yourleague.
So our philosophy here is draftroles, not arguments, right,
pick a lane that matches yourroom and your budget.

(56:41):
I'm going to give you two cleanstrategies, one being the hero
running back and the other beingthe spread and snipe strategy.
Then I'm going to holdcommittee court and sprinkle in
a little do not draft and somemust haves that I want for
running backs.
Lastly, finish up with a littleauction lab so you can rob your

(57:06):
16-team room with a smile onyour face.
So, first things first, findthe draft strategy that works
for you.
The first one is the herorunning back, aka anchor and
attack.
So the point behind thisstrategy is you grab one elite
back early and then you justhammer wide receiver,

(57:30):
quarterback, tight end andcircle back for an upside
running back in like six, seven,eight, nine, okay.
So the ideal anchors at costobviously are bijan robson,
jameer gibbs, christianmccaffrey, derrick henry, even
little ashen, jantyy Devin AChain, even with the injury and

(57:52):
Jonathan Taylor.
Those are all viable ifdiscounted
correctly.
Anchor running backs and you'llnotice a name that wasn't in
there was Saquon Barkley,because these are the
price-sensitive anchors and it'sokay to be a little picky here
and change off strategymid-draft, which you have to be
flexible in a draft.

(58:12):
You've got to be prepared tomake moves.
You can do 1,000 mocks, but youdon't know what the idiot to
your left is going to take.
So Saquon Barkley, I know, look, he's an RB1 in a vacuum right.
492 touches last year is thekiss of death.

(58:37):
Historically draftable, yes forsure.
Top five selection I'm gonna bea little selective.
And the other one on that listis josh jacobs.
2024 last year was a schemeanomaly for lafle and I would
expect some carry and touchdownregression coming into this year
.
Look, he's only an anchor.
If he slides meaningfully hecan be an anchor, but a late

(58:59):
anchor.
So anyway, once you have youranchor, now it's time to attack
wide receivers and follow themap.
I just gave you last segmentfor wide receiver values.
Time to attack wide receiversand follow the map.
I just gave you last segmentfor wide receiver values.
Then you take a valuequarterback.
You know purdy, drake, may,mccarthy.
Then you circle back and youjust start hammering, running

(59:19):
backs left and right.
One of them's got a hit.
Probably a couple of them willhit.
Worst case scenario you havetoo many.
Best case you have too many.
Best case scenario you have toomany and you turn them into
tradebait.
Now the other strategy, optionnumber two it's called the
spread and snipe, aka skip thetop bullshit and just stack the

(59:39):
middle as much as you can.
So let's say you're pickingtowards the end of your draft
right and the elites just getnuked by your draft room and the
elites just get nuked by yourdraft room.
Do yourself a favor, skip thetacks and just take two or three
of the middle round guys.
Travis Etienne is first on thatlist.
He is a discounted running backone.

(01:00:00):
He is a good player in apass-happy offense.
He's going to get a lot oflooks up the middle once they
start backing those safetiesoff.
Tony Pollard's, another one uh,tajay Spears has a high ankle,

(01:00:20):
so that pretty much gives himfull runway with an upgraded
o-line Tank Bigsby same thing asETN.
He'll get some early down work,some goal line work.
If you just want touchdowns,jordan Mason very short yardage
goal line work.
If you just want touchdowns,jordan Mason very short yardage
goal line role.
But contingent upside of Jonesgets dinged up and the head
coach has already said that hekind of plans on using him heavy
.
Could be a real true committeeover there.
Jordan Mason's a great latepickup.

(01:00:41):
Caleb Johnson out of PittsburghArthur Smith just loves to run
the ball.
Got volume path over the polishCam Scadabo.
If the hammy cooperates hisupside could be league winning.
That kid just runs hard.
Jaden Blue out of Dallas um,he's got some receiving juice on

(01:01:04):
a team that's already going tobe past Eppie and that's
desperate for a running back toshine.
I mean, javante Williams istheir starting running back on
the depth chart right now andZach Charbonnet Got a good
timeshare history and KennethWalker is constantly hurt.
Doesn't hurt to just grab himNow.

(01:01:26):
All rise, because it's time forcommittee court and we're
starting it off with Washington.
So the defendant, brian RobsonJr, holding out, he might get
traded, he might just getstraight up cut.
Who knows what's going on overthere.

(01:01:47):
But you ready for this nameJacory Krosky Merritt, aka Bill
Bill.
Bill Bill, not this science guy.
He's flashing and it's honestlyit's more of a matter of, if
not when, that he takes over thefull role.

(01:02:08):
And Eckler is still a PPR glue.
So the verdict draft a highupside guy, not the hero.
Bill is the dart here.
Eckler may be at cost in PPRleagues, deep PPR leagues, but
Bill is the guy you want buriedin your roster and then all of a

(01:02:28):
sudden he goes for 15, and youdon't not play him for the rest
of theyear.
Jacksonville, the defendantbigsby.
He started most of the time,most of the early down work and
the goal line work.
Etn's been on the passing downand ready for another name here

(01:02:50):
Bayshall Tutton is lurking inthe wings.
Well, the verdict draft bothDraft one of them, whoever you
want.
Bigsby has the touchdown pathand ETN is the reception floor.
Do you want PPRR?
Do you want touchdowns?
You're good with either.
Tutton is the one that you wanttoPRR.
Do you want touchdowns?
You're good with either.
Tootin, tutton.

(01:03:11):
Tutton is the one that you wantto stash, though Take him, he
might take over and he's gotsome explosive
speed.
The big trouble the New YorkJets, the defendant Brees, hall.
Well, braylon Allen and IsaiahDavis have rotated with the
starters consistently and Allenhas been taking third downs in

(01:03:35):
first-team reps.
Look, davis sat with an ankleand is explosive when he's
healthy, right.
So here's the verdict.
Hall's ADP is risky in alow-scoring, run-heavy offense,
check-down offense, he'll gethis play, but I think the draft

(01:03:57):
guy is Isaiah Davis.
He's the sleeper tax you wantto pay.
Allen is going to steal someshort yardage and probably get a
lot of goal-line looks, butDavis is probably the guy and
any injury to Brees Hall.
Both of these players skyrocketup the board and you'll be
thanking yourself three monthsin the future when you draft

(01:04:19):
them.
The Panthersnow.
Well, the defendant ChubaHubbard gets the early down work
, but not really the passing.
They picked up Rico Dowdle, whois 5'1".
The verdict Chuba's fine.
Chuba's fine as a flex player,but just temper the expectations

(01:04:42):
.
He's not going to get anycatches and you've got to hope
for him to score a touchdown ortwo.
And last but not least, on thislist of committee court, the
Miami Dolphins, the defendantDevin Achain.
So Alexander Madison is out andJalen Wright is just going to

(01:05:06):
slide into that Mozart role,while Ollie Gordon, the rookie
that they drafted, is pushingfor some goal line works.
I'm going to say the verdict isthat HN is the engine.
He's fine, he's draftable.
You just have to be preparedfor an injury and definitely
100%, grab a handcuff.

(01:05:29):
Wright is probably thepreferred best ball guy, but
handcuff-wise I would grabGordon.
He's going to get a lot of goalline looks and if A-Chain stays
hurt, he's going to be the onethat probably gets the
push.
So to recap and kind of circleback, tie everything in here, a

(01:05:53):
couple of my do not draft guysat price.
As I mentioned Saquon Barkley,I'm out on Saquon.
The 400-plus touch regression.
It's tough to ignore man,especially at age 28.
Look, he's draftable, belowprice, sure, but he's going at
his running back too.
On the board, that stickerprice, you're buying the tail

(01:06:16):
end.
I'm out.
As a Jeff fan, I hate to say it.
I'm not drafting Brees Halleither.
I'm good.
As a Jet fan, I hate to say it.
I'm not drafting Brees Halleither.
I'mgood.
There's a committee, there's anew regime, justin Fields is
going to be running the ball,there's going to be check down
stuff.
The Jets TD production isalready thin as is.
I don't see Brees having a goodyear, even in a contract year.

(01:06:36):
Josh Jacobs I expect therushing touchdowns and overall
attempts honestly just to falldown a little bit.
He's fragile at a running back.
One price, running back two,sure, running back one, I'm good
.
Uh, and ramaji stevenson, Iwouldn't touch him with a 10
football.
Travion henderson is the tealeaf.

(01:06:59):
The new regime has alreadyshowed their hand and that kid
can flat out.
Ball Price makes the trap, notthe player.
Draft accordingly and you'llwin your
league.
Now, from the.
Do not want players to the musthave values at cost.

(01:07:21):
Of course, don't reach up todraft any of these guys.
Do not want players to themust-have values at cost?
Of course don't reach up todraft any of these guys, but at
cost.
Some of the players, some ofthe running backs that I really
do think have so much value.
Travis Etienne I said it before, he's a discounted path back to
a running back one, andespecially in PPR leagues.
All of a sudden you're going tolook up, he's going to have 15

(01:07:41):
points.
Tony Pollard he's going to getso much volume.
The schedule is easy, theO-line is super strong, he's got
top 15 written all over him.
Looking forward to getting myhands on him in a couple
leagues.
Caleb Johnson a name thatreally wasn't mentioned by me at
all, but the starting runningback for Pittsburgh.

(01:08:01):
He's going to take over forNajee Harris.
It's going to be him and JalenWarren, but it looks like it's
just going to be.
Caleb Johnson, for the mostpart Fits the scheme.
He's going to have a bunch oftouches.
He'll have a nice floor foryou.
On a little more of thevolatile side, cam Scadabo.
If he can stay healthy man,he's going to win that job.

(01:08:23):
Tracy's going to fumble.
Scadabo's going to come in.
He's going to break off amonster run and that'll be the
end of that.
And then, on the other side ofNew York too, isaiah Davis.
He's got a big play profile thecommittee beneficiary.
If Hall moves or gets hurt, Idon't know.
He's going to do well withBraylon Allen and Jalen Wright

(01:08:48):
out of Miami.
He's explosive.
He's the exact role that madeMozart a league winner a couple
years ago.
That's the guy you want tostash on your bench.
I'll take him wherever I canget
him.
Now, those are two strategiesfor drafting leagues.
But what if you're in anauction league?

(01:09:09):
What if you're in a big auctionleague, as they most of the
time are?
You don't really see 10, 12-manauction leagues.
The whole point of the auctionis to make sure that everybody
has a chance to get a hand on aplayer.
So what's the strategy forthat?
Well, here's a couple tips.
Tip number one don't blow thebag early.

(01:09:32):
Okay, and I cannot stress thatenough.
Everyone seems to always snag,or always want to snag, two
monster players early.
They want to grab CD, they wantto grab Brock Bowers and all of
a sudden they're left with $100for the rest of the draft.
They blow their budget earlyand then they just end up
drinking their ass off whileeverybody else drafts.

(01:09:53):
Don't do that.
Trust me.
I may or may not know frompersonal experience, or may not
know from personalexperience.
The trick to auction leagues iscap your top player at about 30
to 35% of your league budget.
Let the two-man bidding warsdrain their wallets.
Don't get involved.

(01:10:13):
Don't try and bid somebody upon a player that you don't want.
Who gives a shit?
Let them burn their money, okay.
The other one one, too, islimit solo positions.
One quarterback, one tight end,one kicker, one defensive slot
Take one.
Don't grab two tight ends.
Don't grab a backup quarterback.
Who cares?

(01:10:34):
Stream later.
Stream them when you're needed.
Spend your money on runningback and wide receiver volume
okay, grab the guys thatactually matter.
The other important rule toalways go by is the 50 20 rule.
Okay, so that means you want toreserve 20 to 25 percent of

(01:10:55):
your budget for the final 50percent of the
nominations.
End game dollars is what winsauction leagues.
You want to be the guy at theend of the draft that can outbid
everybody on a player that youwant by $1.
The best guy can go for $16.
Well, you have $17.
Sold, thank you.
And the last little sneaky oneNominate the

(01:11:19):
landmines.
Nominate the $2 assholes.
Okay, late in the draft,everybody's tapped out at one
dollar max bids.
Time to throw your sleeper forthat two dollar door.
Okay, nominate the landmines.
Get people bidding early.
Not interested in any of theSaints wide receivers?
Nominate them.

(01:11:41):
Let somebody bid up big onChris Alave.
Let somebody spend some moneyon a running back that they're
not too sure of but they kind oflike him, or somebody on their
team that they follow that theythink is going to be a stud.
Let them bid them up.
Who cares?
And the other one too, is towalk
away.
Before the draft set a specificnumber for some of the elite

(01:12:06):
guys.
If derrick henry clears yournumber by three dollars, let
them take them.
Don't bid up so you can maybeget another dollar out of them.
Whatever, let let them takethem.
Let them buy the parade float.
Okay, for the price you wouldhave spent on him, you'll buy
two starters with what you savedand then mid season, he'll come

(01:12:27):
crawling and knocking on yourdoor and saying, hey, are you
any interest in a Derrick Henry?
Or whatever?
Let them, let them take it.
Let them take it.
You'll be laughing your way tothe bank, laughing your way to
thechampionship.
So, to recap the the finalrules when it comes to drafting
running backs, you want to takeroles over names.
Don't just grab the guy withthe big name, because that's who

(01:12:51):
you're supposed to take.
Do some homework, do someresearch.
See who's getting target share.
See when they're using them.
Draft the roles over the names.
See when they're using them.
Draft the roles over thenames.
The ambiguous, unclearbackfields are where the titles
hide in a running back committeeof two or three people.
If you can find the guy in thatcommittee, you'll be in the

(01:13:14):
playoffs, guaranteed.
And lastly, let the price makethe decision for you.
If somebody falls to you, takethem, but don't feel pressured
to snag a running back superearly just because this is where
I'm supposed to take this guy.
If a guy like A-Chan or BuckyIrvin is on the board and you

(01:13:38):
don't like him.
And CeeDee Lamb is still takinghim.
Take CeeDee Lamb, you'll findother guys, don't worry.
Worry about it, get the bestplayers available.
Let the price dictate yourdecision, all right?
Well, that's that for the backsup.
Next, everybody's favoriterookies and sleepers the candy

(01:13:59):
aisle, the sweetness.
We'll stock your bench withbreakouts before your league
mates even know their names.
And we'll be doing it withoutsacrificing week one points
either.
Smart shoppers, bring a basket,here we go, they're here.

(01:14:30):
That's right Time for somerookies and sleepers.
Yes, the candy aisle.
But tonight we're not justnaming names, we're building a
machine different gears,different
timelines.
One goal, score now, detonatelater and never carry dead

(01:14:57):
weight.
Dead weight, think of things.
Using the three clocks.
Every rookie or sleeper wedraft has to answer one question
when does it pay?
Clock one it pays now.
Week one usable, unusable.

(01:15:26):
Clock two soon grows into astart by, let's say, october.
Or clock three later stash forthe buy storm and the breakout
in the chaos season.
So let's start with clock one,guys, for the, now that you can
plug and play right off therip.
We'll start with Ricky Pearsall.
He's not exactly a rookie, butit took him a while to get in

(01:15:49):
and now it's probably going tobe his first full real season
Again.
Demarcus Robinson suspended.
Ayuk is on the mend.
Jennings is nicked.
Shanahan has already beentreating him like a
grown-up.
Purdy in preseason looked hisway the first drive of the
preseason nonstop.
It's safe to treat him as awide receiver.
Three until further notice.

(01:16:09):
Not so much a sleeper anymore,but my guy Tetratoa McMillan.
He falls under that clock one.
Now he's got the rookie label,but a vet workload.
Bryce Young's cleanest throw towin option.
If if you drafted him to flexevery now and then, you'll start
him more weeks than notguaranteed.

(01:16:31):
Matthew Golden also falls underthat now
category.
I know I touched on it before,but I mean it.
It's a first round wide outafter 23 year drought for the
Packers front office.
Okay, that alone is enough toknow that they mean to push this
kid.
And he's got great hands, greatroute running ability.
He's usable right out of thegate.

(01:16:52):
I promise you and these threewide receivers are don't leave
the draft without one.
If you waited on receiver,these are one of the guys that
you must take.
Okay, don't let your leaguemates have one of these three
guys, just get one of them.
You won't be disappointed.

(01:17:14):
Now clock two.
This is the soon clock, theweek's three to six snowball
kind ofclock.
First on the list is CalebJohnson out of Pittsburgh,
arthur Smith archetype with arunway of vacated touches.
There is no one to take thisball except him and Jalen Warren
, and I think they're over JalenWarren Early carries lead to

(01:17:36):
early scores.
The receiving can grow later.
Cam Scadabo for the Giants.
He's also a soon Healthpermitting.
He is a full-on angry tonesetter.
The Giants need chain moversand Scadabo is that guy.
September is going to be theaudition, but October.

(01:17:57):
But October, that's when he'sgoing to take
off.
Torrey Horton soon Clean camp.
He's got a good drum beat.
He's good with the guys, getssome first-team reps here and
there.
Some separation on the tape too.
Look Seattle man.
It starts as the number threeand then the usage starts to

(01:18:17):
spike up little by little andall of a sudden he's running 70%
of routes.
Miami, samething.
Ollie gordon, the second soon achain is the fireworks, right,
but ollie can be the the bouncerat the velvet rope.
He can be that goal line guyand goal line equity flips weeks

(01:18:38):
.
You plug him in, he scores atouchdown.
Maybe he gets two.
All of a sudden you're lookingat 15 points from a guy you
drafted in the 12th round.
Lastly, clock three the laterguys, the stash with a purpose
guys.
Basial Tootin, out ofJacksonville Everybody's reading

(01:18:58):
it as a two-back surface, butit's a three-back
reality.
If either etn or bigsby hiccupsor gets hurt or fumbles or
whatever, toons juices fill thevacuum.
That's a november hammer thatyou held on to forever.
Jacori cross jacori kroski Isaid I wasn't going to fuck his

(01:19:22):
name up, but I did anyway.
Aka Bill he's a later guy.
Clock three the commanders areclearly reshuffling.
If Robinson moves on or getshurt or holds out or whatever,
bill's live for eight to 12touches almost immediately.

(01:19:42):
That's a guy you're going to beso happy you drafted.
And Isaiah Davis he's anotherlater guy.
He's got explosive tape and thewriting's on the wall.
The Jets aren't going to payBrees and if the Jets tilt
towards a hot hand, davis, isthat $1 waiver or that 15th

(01:20:02):
round pickup that could possiblywin you your
league.
So what about head-to-head?
What about tie breaks?
You can only pick one.
Both guys are going to be gone.
This is your draft pick.
You can't have themboth.
So Pearsall versus Golden.
Well, do you need points inSeptember?
You take Pearsall.

(01:20:23):
Are you building for a fullseason wide receiver three?
You take Golden.
What about Caleb Johnson versusOllie Gordon?
Who's got the safer floor,caleb?
Who's got the bigger touchdownvolatility that you can maybe
sneak in the flex every now andthen?
Well, it's Ali.
How about Torrey Horton versusJalen Lane?

(01:20:46):
More routes by midseason?
Probably Horton, the fasterpath to a scheme touch Lane.
How about Tootin versus Skadabo?
Higher playoff upside Tootin.
He'll be there the longest butbetter chance to matter by week

(01:21:11):
three and maybe carry yourleague
Skadabo.
The important thing withrookies and sleepers and bench
spots too, is, let's call it theportfolio rule.
You want to keep your portfolioin order, right.
So you got your guys.
You got your starters.
Maybe a bench guy here andthere, whatever.
Really, it's two starters, oneclimber and one detonator.

(01:21:31):
That's it.
That's what you should bedrafting for four bench spots.
That'll do thejob.
So if a rookie isn't on thefield by week three and there
really isn't a clear will they,won't they or whatever cut them
fast and reload.
Okay, that's the rookie machine, that's the sleeper machine.

(01:21:57):
You draft guys with high upside.
They don't work out.
Don't be afraid to cut bait.
Okay.
So that's it really for rookiesand sleepers Clocks method.
You've got your tie breaks andtraps avoided.
You've got your now, soon andlater guys that you want to keep
your eyes on.
You want to draft to thetimeline, not the helmet, and by

(01:22:23):
doing that you'll be thecalmest person in a room full of
reachers.
But rookies bagged, sleeperspocketed, and your bench is
weaponized.
Quick reset on the show.
One last lap here.
We'll land the plane with theoutro, your receipts corner,
prompt and recap of what wecovered today.

(01:22:44):
Then you can go on, make meproud and win some drafts and
that is a wrap.
That is the.
That is the fantasyextravaganza.
You did the full lap QBs with aplan, wide receivers with a map

(01:23:09):
.
Hot takes to the Vegas car wash, running back builds that
actually win rooms and a rookiesleeper portfolio that scores
now and spikes later.
If your draft board doesn'tfeel calmer after all that
that's just adrenaline It'llpass Probably.
Quick housekeeping before wehit the tunnel Receipts corner

(01:23:33):
Drop a comment or a DM with oneflag that you
love.
I want name and the round thatyou would actually pay to take
them.
We'll read the best ones on airand, yes, we keep score around
here.
So if you send a victory lap inDecember, better come with that
timestamp too.
If this episode helped you evena little bit, do the right

(01:23:54):
thing.
Do the two click thing, follow,rate review.
It's a free way to boost theshow, helps me a lot and
probably annoys the shit out ofyour league mates too.
So win-win Hell.
Even share it with the onefriend who drafts a kicker in
the 10th round.
We can fix him, I promise.
Also, friendly reminder betresponsibly.

(01:24:16):
Okay, if you're tailing theprops that I gave you and you
want to throw some scratch onthem, wager what you'd spend on
a stadium beer, not on a carpayment For the folks in the
headphones.
Yes you, thanks for letting meride shotgun on your draft prep.
Make sure you guys follow theInstagram at RiceOnTheRadio.

(01:24:39):
I run polls every Wednesday andI'll answer all your DMs and be
sure to send me your rostersonce you guys draft.
I would love to see the advicethat you guys took and the
monster rosters that you endedup with.
I'm Ian Rice this is Rice onthe Mics and, as always, spread
good energy in this world andtell someone you love them yes,

(01:25:02):
even the person who snagged yourpic right in front of you.
I'll see you guys next week,same time, same place.
Cheers.