Lottery Tickets & Lost Seasons

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We sort the chaos of December sports: Jets and Giants frustration, why tanking is a myth, the NFL’s shifting power, fantasy semifinal traps, a pragmatic Week 16 betting card, the Knicks’ NBA Cup and how to make it matter more, plus a Mets therapy session and college QB stock watch. The throughline is simple: you can’t game the future, only your next decision.

• Jets’ collapse, coaching shakeup, Burrow speculation
• Giants’ close losses, draft-slot angst, QB flashes
• Tanking as lottery tickets, alignment over slogans
• Bills comeback, Mahomes ACL, Garrett’s record chase
• Week 16 spotlight games that expose quit vs grit
• Fantasy semifinal landmines and matchup logic
• Five betting picks with rationale and risk framing
• Knicks’ NBA Cup win, banner talk, fan-first tweaks
• Mets departures, Dodgers deferrals, front-office intent
• College quarterbacks using the playoff to move draft stock

If you enjoyed the episode, please share it with a friend. Hit follow, jump in on the Wednesday mic checks on Instagram, DM me your takes, your rants, your mailbag questions, anything. All of it can be found at Rice on the Radio on Instagram, on Twitter, on TikTok, whatever. It’s at Rice on the Radio.

Episode Transcript

SPEAKER_00 (00:00):
I guess there's only one way to find out was to do it
too, right?

SPEAKER_01 (00:12):
Here we are, ladies and gentlemen.
We have hit that time of theyear on the sports calendar that
is just a weird stretch ofemotions.
The standings are saying playoffpush, the calendar is saying
family drama and holiday gifts,and yet your team's body
language is saying we've alreadypacked a car and we're halfway

(00:34):
to the airport.
Welcome back to Rice on theMics.
I am Ian Rice, and this week isthe warm-up lap before the
holidays.
We're gonna figure out who'sactually still pushing the pace,
who's just coasting in theoutside lane, and honestly, how
much more pain you can takerealistically as a fan before

(00:54):
you just tap out.
Because really, if you're a fanof the New York locals, look
around.
The Jets just got absolutely dogwalked in Jacksonville.
Wilkes gets canned, Brady Cookis out here throwing souvenir
picks, and now he's startingagain in New Orleans.
And as for the Giants, well theykeep playing just well enough to

(01:15):
break your heart and ruin yourdraft position at the same time.
Once again, same movie,different year.
We'll dive deeper into bothlocals later, and then we'll
roll into something a little bitbigger than I think I've been
thinking about this week.
And that's that tanking doesn'tactually work.
Look, every draft pick is ascratch-off lottery ticket.
Tank for Tua turned into Tua gotbenched for Quinn Ewers.

(01:39):
It's all darts at a board.
Around the league, we got somebig names going down for the
year.
Mahomes tears his ACL, MichaelParsons tears his ACL, the big
red machine chiefs are finallyout of the playoffs officially.
The Bengals get shut out athome, and Joe Burrow is talking
like he either wants to retireor he needs to force his way out
of Cincy.

(01:59):
We'll also touch on a couplegames from last week, including
that Bill's comeback down 21 andthe Colt Seahawks.
Old Man Rivers almost did it.
Then we'll shift into week 16look ahead with some real season
shaping games.
From there, it's on to FantasySamis if you're still in and
rolling the dice with Rice.
We'll talk lineup landmines soyou don't die with the wrong guy

(02:22):
in your flex.
And I got a fresh slate of picksfor you, including both locals,
plus a Texas Raiders number thatlooks disgusting in the best way
possible.
On the hardwood, the Knicks winthe NBA Cup.
They decide not to hang a bannerand still somehow break the
internet.
I want to get into what the cupactually means, why calling it

(02:43):
Fugazy is just lazy, and acouple tweaks that I'd like to
make to get fans more investedin.
Also, Mikhail Bridges mightliterally be the first dude to
play 83 games in an 82-gameseason.
Baseball-wise, it's gonna be afull Mets therapy session this
week.
Diaz gone, Nimo gone, Alonzogone, Dodgers deferring money

(03:05):
until the sun burns out.
Stearns is sitting on a planthat we just can't see yet,
apparently.
And Yankee fans quietly sweatingand biting their nails off while
pretending that they're above itall.
And that Cashman will get itdone.
We'll get into all of it, andbefore we close the show, we'll
land the player with a quickcollege football hit.
Mendoza winning the Heisman,Indiana beating Ohio State, the

(03:28):
college football playoffsstarting up.
And how a couple of thesequarterbacks could play
themselves from maybe I'll comeback next year to you'd be
insane not to declare the shit.
Lots to get into, lots ofemotions to sort out.
This is the warm-up lap beforethe holidays.
So let's see who's still runninghard and who's mentally in

(03:48):
sweatpants.
Let's do it to it.
Alright, let's start with thelocals because that kind of sets
the mood for the whole leagueconversation anyway.
The Jets.
The Jets, man.
That Jacksonville game wasn'tthat wasn't just a loss.

(04:09):
That was a get your manhoodchecked type of afternoon.
Trevor Lawrence looked like hewas on rookie mode in Madden.
Six total touchdowns.
The Jags scored touchdowns ontheir first three drives, the
first time since 1998.
Tom Kaufman might have beencoaching, I think.
And the Jets were down 14-0before they even picked up a

(04:32):
first down in this game.
Brady Cook gets his first start.
Cool story.
Undrafted dude.
First undrafted free agent tostart for the Jets since the
70s, by the way.
And it's like, yeah, all right,here's your prize.
A top-scoring defense, a hostileroad crowd.
And by the way, we'reimmediately in a hole.
He gets the touchdown to Ed andI Mitchell.

(04:55):
Great moment.
They save the ball, the holeworks.
But after that, it's three picksand a whole lot of welcome to
the league, kid.
Defensively, it it was it wasn'tmuch better either.
It was the same disaster we'vebeen watching for the last two
weeks.
Miscommunications, miss tackles,just flat out getting out
physical.

(05:15):
To the point where Aaron Glennfires Steve Wilkes, who he
handpicked, by the way, andbasically comes out after the
game and says, X's and O's arenot the problem.
I'm evaluating the character ofthe guys in this room.
That's about as loud as a coachcan say some of you have checked
out and you're on notice withoutliterally saying it.

(05:38):
And that's where this week inNew Orleans gets weird because
the Saints have kind of foundthemselves as of late.
They're at least competent now.
The offense isn't the joke itwas at the start of the season,
and it's looking like they mighthave actually maybe found
something at quarterback, atleast something serviceable at
quarterback.
And they're still playing like ateam that wants to be taken

(06:00):
seriously.
Meanwhile, the Jets, they looklike a team that they can't wait
for the offseason.
Cook is starting again this weekover Fields and Tyrod.
You got a new DC, you got Glenntrying to reset the tone again,
and it's it's one of those gameswhere you could totally see the
Jets doing the annoying Jetsthing, right?

(06:21):
Playing just well enough to keepit close, special team scores,
keep you right on the edge ofyour seat, maybe even cover, but
they still lose, and they'releaving everybody in that weird
headspace of do I root for winsor do I root for the draft?
What am I supposed to do here?
And the other layer on top ofthis, the Joe Burrow chatter

(06:44):
that's been going around thisweek, if you missed it, he did a
press conference in the middleof the week, and he basically
looked disheveled, and he saidhe's not in the right head
space.
He, you know, he's trying he'shaving a hard time trying to
find fun in football.
And he went directly asked aboutit if he would play for another

(07:06):
team other than Cincy.
He said crazy things happenevery year.
So you can see why Jet fans'brains instantly went, Do we
dare dream?
Do we dare go down this road yetagain?
I mean, look, I I I don't thinkit's imminent or anything, and
the cost to get him would behuge.
But this is this is where theJets are.

(07:28):
This is why you got all thosepicks at the trade deadline.
To be able to make a move if youso choose.
You've got one eye on Brady Cookseeing if maybe you lucked into
something.
You've got one eye on thecollege football playoff seeing
if there's uh any stud rookiethat you want to draft or move
up to draft or whatever, andthen you got a third eye on some

(07:52):
imaginary trade machine whereyou can make a blockbuster for a
proven commodity to save yourfranchise.
It's it's so many factors to tryand negotiate and minutia
details to work out, but this iswhy you are where you are, and
this is why you haven't made theplayoffs in 15 years.

(08:14):
But hopefully this regime seemsto be making a step in the right
direction.
And then you flip it over to theGiants, and somehow it is the
same frustration as the Jets,just a different flavor.
We had chocolate, now we'regetting a little vanilla, we're
getting a little strawberry.

(08:35):
So they lose this week toWashington 29-21.
That's eight straight losses.
They haven't won a game sinceOctober 9th.
And yet, yet, they are in everygame.
Drops at the worst possiblemoments, one or two boneheaded
plays, and then you look at therecord and you go, how are we

(08:59):
two and twelve?
Jackson Dart actually showed yousome stuff again, too.
246 yards, two touchdowns, oneto Tracy, one to Wandell
Robinson.
Should have had another guydropped in the end zone.
And yeah, the interceptionhurts, but you can see the
flashes.
This isn't just some zombieoffense where the guy can't play

(09:19):
and they're making it work.
He's showing you that he canplay in this league and he's
doing it with his two bestweapons in street clothes on the
sideline in a season that's beenover since Halloween.
And then on top of it, you getthe weird moment where he gets
yanked and thrown into the bluetent after a designed run in the
fourth.
And even he was like, I I didn'tfeel like it was that big of a

(09:41):
hit.
I didn't feel like I got hit.
And after watching the replay,he wasn't the one who got hit.
It was the defenseman.
They collided together.
But that's where we're at withhim now.
Between the Chicago concussionand the spotters, I mean the
league definitely sent out amemo to them to keep an eye on a
budding superstar in a majormarket.

(10:02):
They're gonna be over cautiouswith his head.
They're gonna be over cautiouswith him.
Which, to be fair, for the longterm is probably the right move,
even if it drives Giant fansinsane in the moment, seeing
Jameis warm up.
The good sign, he actually slida few times, and Kafka even
called it out.
I know it sounds small, but fora young quarterback, learning I

(10:26):
don't have to be a hero on everyscramble is actually real
growth.
I mean, the talent is there, theunderstanding of the game is
there.
You just gotta work out of thehard-headedness for him.
You gotta get rid of thestubbornness for him.
So now this week you get theVikings rolling into MetLife.
Minnesota's 6-8, but they werealready eliminated before they

(10:47):
even kicked off last week.
And they still went into Dallasand pretty much stomped on the
Cowboys season.
JJ McCarthy threw for 250 andtwo touchdowns.
He ran one in himself.
They've now won two straight andthey're playing hard for
O'Connell.
And they're getting a Giantsteam that in classic Giants
fashion is sitting with thenumber one overall pick right

(11:10):
now, and they probably stillwill find a way to play
themselves out of it.
Minnesota will probably chokewhen they get to Jersey.
Then next week there's a Raidersgame coming that will ultimately
decide who drafts number one ifthe Giants lose this week.
And then you close the season athome against Dallas, they'll
probably find a way to stealthat one too.
All of a sudden, they're pickingfourth or fifth instead of

(11:32):
first.
And it's the same movie everyyear with them.
They suck for four months, theseason's over by October, and
then suddenly they get weirdlyfrisky the last three weeks and
they ruin their draft slot.
So you get the frustration,right?
You you understand it.
But you also hear Herm Edwardsin the back of your head, you

(11:55):
play to win the game.
Players and coaches are not outhere tanking.
They're trying to put good tapeout there so they actually stay
employed.
And this leads me perfectly intomy next point.
Why I think tanking actuallydoesn't work.

(12:15):
Look, this is where I'm at,right?
Tanking is fake for lack, lackof a better word.
It's it's vibes for frontoffices and fans that want to
play GM from their couch, right?
Players don't tank, coachesdon't tank, and even when teams

(12:36):
do it organizationally by tryingto put a bad product on the
field, it's way more of a gamblethan anybody wants to admit.
Think about all the years thatwe talked about this for suck
for luck or tank for Tua or Losefor Caleb.
Look, there's there's always oneguy that the bad teams are

(12:56):
supposed to build their entirelong-term misery franchise
around.
And yes, sometimes it hits.
Sometimes you get Joe Burrow,sometimes you get Patrick
Mahomes, sometimes you getTrevor Lawrence, you get a guy
that pulls you out of the ditch.
But more often than not, itlooks like what's happening in

(13:16):
Miami right now.
That whole tank for Tua thing,yeah, five years later, the dude
just got benched for Quinn Ewerson a six and eight team that's
eliminated in mid-December.
They gave Tua four years,$212million extension, and he led
the league in passing for like15 minutes.

(13:37):
And now McDaniels is up theresaying quarterback play wasn't
good enough, everything's on thetable.
We think Quinn gives us the bestchance to win.
Shout out Zach Wilson, by theway, who gets just completely
passed over.
That's the thing that nobodylikes to say out loud, right?
Every draft pick is just alottery ticket.

SPEAKER_00 (13:55):
That's it.

SPEAKER_01 (13:57):
You're throwing darts at a board and praying you
hit the bullseye at the sametime that your coaching staff,
your front office, yourownership, and your cap
management all just happen toline up and be competent.
And then you're praying thatfive years from now, after you
have to pay this guy, yourfranchise savior isn't getting

(14:19):
benched for a seventh-roundrookie while everyone starts
running cap calculators on hisdead money.
So when Jet fans or Giant fansor whoever get into this space
of we have to lose these lastcouple games for insert
quarterback name here, look, I Iget the emotion.

(14:39):
I understand why it makes senseto put yourself in the best
position possible.
But the truth is, the realtruth, you have no idea who's
actually gonna pan out.
You just hope that your frontoffice is smart enough to keep
throwing darts until theyfinally hit one and build pieces

(15:00):
around him.
Okay.
Tanking, soapbox gone.
I'm done.
Let's zoom out.
There were a couple games fromaround the league this week that
are definitely worth gettinginto.
And I want to start with theBills Patriots game.
Oh boy, this was one of thosegames where if you're Buffalo,

(15:21):
it kind of feels like you justhit the reset button on your
season.
You were down 21-0 in Foxboro,snow coming down, Drake May's
been carving you up.
Trevion Henderson looks likehe's on a personal, I told you
I'm the best running back onthis team tour, and you come all
the way back to win 35-31.
Josh Allen only throws for 193,by the way.

(15:44):
But he got three touchdowns.
James Cook goes for over 100yards on the ground, and he
scores the go-ahead touchdown.
Dawson Knox finds the end zonetwice, and it's the third time
this year that they've climbedout of a double-digit hole that
their defense has put them in.
It it keeps the division alive.
They're one game back of NewEngland instead of letting the

(16:05):
Pats celebrate an AFC East Crownin their face.
And it sets up this week's 16Browns game where you're just
not just trying to clinch aplayoff spot, you're also not
trying to be a trivia questionin Miles Garrett's sack record.
Because don't look now,Garrett's sitting at 21 and a
half sacks.
By the way, that's more than theJets have as a team, that's more

(16:27):
than the Niners have as a team.
And he's one off-tying strayhand in TJ Watt's single season
record.
He's had a sack in eightstraight games.
And now, now does he get?
He gets Josh Allen, who holdsthe ball, he extends plays, and
he's also been sacked 33 timesthis year.

(16:49):
You can tell both sides knowexactly what this is.
Allen literally said he's like,I I like watching highlight
tapes.
I don't like being the guythat's in someone else's
highlight tape.
And Schwartz is basically sayingthe same thing.
He said, we want them to have tothrow.
Because if they do, we like ourodds.
Next game on the list from week15 was the Chargers Chiefs game.

(17:11):
And this one, this one felt likethe end of an era.
KC loses 16-13.
They're officially out of theplayoffs.
The AFC West run is done andover.
The conference title game streakis done and over.
And on top of it, PatrickMahomes blows out his ACL and
his LCL with under two minutesleft in the game.

(17:33):
Had surgery in Dallas.
Everything goes well, andthey're already talking
timelines.
Roughly nine months is like theballpark usually for an ACL.
So, of course, the immediatequestion is, is he gonna be
ready for week one?
Blah blah blah blah.
And Reed has to put out thefires.
He's out there doing what heshould do.
He'll attack rehab.
There have been greatquarterbacks who rehab this

(17:54):
injury and came back fine.
Tom Brady's on his podcastturning into Dr.
PT, telling Mahomes, don't livein rehab mode.
Get back into training mode asfast as you can.
And look, you know, it makessense.
If there's anybody you want totake uh advice from on an ACL,
it's Brady.
Had three rings towards ACL, wonanother three.
So it all makes sense.
But emotionally in the league,you can feel that shift.

(18:18):
For the first time in, God,what, a decade, I guess.
The Chiefs are just kind ofanother team in the pack this
offseason.
No deep run, no Super Bowl, justa long rehab and a lot of cap
questions.
And a backup, Gardner Minshew,by the way, Gardner Minshew
sighting, trying his best todrag them over the finish line.

(18:39):
Next game, Colts at Seahawks,and Phillip Rivers, our boy, Mr.
44-year-old grandfather himself.
He almost did it.
He hasn't taken a hit in fiveyears.
He gets the call after DanielJones tears his Achilles.
They sign him to the practicesquad on Tuesday.
He practiced Wednesday, and bySunday, he's starting in Seattle

(19:00):
in one of the loudest buildingsin the league, wearing Daniel
Jones' number 17.
And honestly, I gotta say, helooked weirdly fine.
I mean, you could clearly seehis arm wasn't what it was, but
to be fair, it never was reallya rocket either.
But he goes 18 for 27, 120yards, throws a touchdown to

(19:23):
Josh Downs.
He manages the game exactly howShane Steigen wanted it.
Protection right, no dumb risks,chew the clock out, keep them
off the field, lead into therun.
They hold the ball, they're up10, they set up a 60-yard field
goal with 47 seconds left, andthe kicker drills it.
Colt's sideline went nuts.

(19:44):
And you're like, shit, there'sthe movie.
Here it is.
He's gonna do this.
And then good old Sam Darnold.
He just goes into full chaosmerchant mode.
Seattle moves at twenty fiveyards and two plays.
Jason.
Myers hits the 56 yard gamewinner, and it's a gut punch.

(20:04):
Rivers, full credit, immediatelybacking that.
I'm grateful to be here.
I'm happy to be here.
This is great.
But I'm pissed we lost the gamemode.
He got emotional at the podium,too, adding out some words of
wisdom to these young pups.
So look, he knows he can stillplay enough to give them a shot.
The problem is the Colts' marginfor error is non-existent.

(20:28):
The schedule coming up isliterally Niners, Jags, Texans.
All three of those are playoffteams.
And you got to get at least twoof those wins.
Last game I want to go over fromthis week, Packers at Broncos.
And this is the other side ofthe same AFC coin.
A team that actually looks likeit's peaking at the right time.
Green Bay comes in, they jump onhim early, and then defensive

(20:52):
player of the year last year,Passer Tan, flips the game.
His first interception of theseason on a defense that's been
playing elite all year long.
The Broncos are down nine.
Packers have scored on theirfirst five possessions, and
Sertan changes the whole thing.
Christian Watson goes up andSertan just steals the ball

(21:12):
right from him.
And from that point on, it wasall Denver.
Jordan Love barely throws for 30yards in the second half.
Meanwhile, Bo Knicks goes forfour touchdowns, and the Broncos
log up their 11th straight win,12th straight at home.
That's a wagon, man.
That defense is real.
And it's all happening whiletheir best player on offense is

(21:34):
a rookie quarterback and theirsignature star is the reigning
defensive player of the year.
That's what it looks like whenyour drafted elite guy actually
hits, and your coaching and yourroster and your defense are all
synced up at the same time.
Meanwhile, for the Packers, it'sit's the loss wasn't enough.

(21:55):
It's more pain.
You lose the game after beingup, and then you find out you
lose Micah Parsons to an ACL.
Season's over, sack streak over.
He had five straight years of 12plus sacks.
And honestly, because they howthey handle ACL recoveries,
there's a real chance he mightmiss maybe the first month of

(22:16):
next year, too.
That's a massive swing for ateam that made a big boy move
this offseason getting what theythought was the last piece they
needed to make a run for a SuperBowl.
So now going forward, becausethe show goes on, I got a couple
games for you to circle that fitour whole who's still running

(22:38):
hard versus who's checked outtheme this week.
And it starts, it stays with thePackers.
Packers at Bears.
And this one is basically a wildcard elimination game, to be
honest with you.
Whoever loses pretty much dropsto the bottom of that entire
mess.
And the optics are gonna be uglyfor somebody one way or the

(22:58):
other.
Somebody choked this whole thingaway.
Chicago's finally earning somerespect.
Some teams are starting to takethem a little bit more
seriously.
The defense is playing better.
The run game keeps showing upweek to week.
Caleb has actually been lookinga little more comfortable in the
pocket, and now you get thePackers team that just got
bullied by Denver and lostParsons, lost their pass rush.

(23:20):
That changes how confident youfeel dropping back.
It's gonna be one of those colddivisional who blinks first type
of games.
And I actually have this game onmy card for the rolling the dice
with Rice segment.
So we'll definitely come back toit and get into it a little more
detail later.
But it's definitely a game youwant to keep an eye on this
week.

(23:40):
Another game you want to keep aneye on, sticking with the Bills.
You got Bills at Browns.
And it might be my favoriteweird game on the board.
On one sideline, you got JoshAllen trying to clinch a spot,
trying to make a play for thedivision, also trying to be the
first guy ever with 300 totaltouchdowns before 30 years old.

(24:01):
And on the other side, you got aplayer chasing something himself
too.
You got Miles Garrett chasinghistory on a six and whatever
Browns team that's bad onoffense, but a nightmare to
block.
Buffalo leads the league inrushing as a team right now.
And a lot of that is James Cook.
A lot of that is Allen.
Cleveland's been a little leakythe last month or so on the run.

(24:26):
But if the Browns can find a wayto get this into some obvious
passing downs, force Allen todrop back 35, 40 times, let
Garrett in that front hunt,there's definitely a possibility
that Garrett could be a gamerecord here and make some noise.
Buffalo's good, but they couldbe had.
Now flip it around.
You also got Shador Sanders onthe Brown side making just his

(24:49):
fifth start, coming off hisworst game as a pro.
Three picks for Chicago.
I know that defense is good, butnot great.
He's been under siege behind yetanother new offensive line
combo.
Guys just stay hurt and shiftingaround.
And now he has to keep up withan offense that if you blink,
they'll put up 30 in a quarteron you.

(25:12):
So again, all this just showshow fragile the tank for the
future logic really is.
Look, Cleveland thought they hadtheir long term answer already
before this rebuild inside of arebuild inside of whatever,
whatever Cleveland's alwaystrying to do with a quarterback.
And here they are, back again.
Square one, rookie quarterbackland, trying to evaluate if they

(25:35):
have something while also tryingto find a spot in the draft,
maybe grab another one, and youhave players on your team
chasing records.
Last game on the list you shouldkeep your eye on this week: a
good old 2010 matchup.
Uh Patriots at Ravens.
This is a fun clash for thenarratives.
It really is.

(25:57):
New England, even if they'relosing, they stroll in 11-3,
undefeated on the road, theylead the division.
And Vegas looks at it and goes,cool, we'll take the Ravens
minus two and a half.

SPEAKER_00 (26:09):
And I kind of get it, to be honest with you.

SPEAKER_01 (26:11):
It sounds stupid.
They're begging you to bet thePatriots, but I kind of get it.
On paper, the the Patriotsrecord is sparkling.
But really the quality wins listis super thin.
Their only win over a team thatis currently a winning record is
one of the Bills games.

SPEAKER_00 (26:30):
That's it.

SPEAKER_01 (26:32):
Meanwhile, the Ravens are 7-7, and they've
they've been weirdly bad athome, which is rare for them,
but there's this underlying fearfactor of Lamar and that defense
and that building in prime time.
It's got its own breadth to it.
Layer on top of that, thatDerrick Henry gets a matchup
against his old coach Mike VMike Vrabel.

(26:54):
That's just fun football, man.
Vrabel coached him in Tennesseefor years.
So he knows every little nuance.
He knows when he wants tobounce.
He knows when he wants to cutback and how he builds speed and
how he uses that stiff arm.
And Henry, you know, Henry'stalking about saying the right
thing, talking about how good ofa coach he is and how well

(27:16):
they're doing, how they're inthe mix and for the top seed.
And blah, blah, blah, blah,blah.
It's very respectful.
But you know what, man?
These guys are all competitors.
You know deep down that he wouldlove nothing more than to run
through one of those linebackersand drop a 180 rush a yard game
on him.
So Drake man gets the Sundaynight stage, and he has been one

(27:37):
of the best deep ball throwersin the league this year.
He's literally right next toStafford in 20 plus yard
completions.
But Lamar, even still workinghis way back from the hammy.
But he he says he's fine, and hesaid every game from now on is a
playoff game.
We lose, we're out.
So yeah, if the Ravens lose,they're 7-8, and you've been bad

(28:01):
at home, and it starts to feellike this whole year just
slipped away from you.
But if the Patriots lose, that'sback-to-back blown
opportunities, and the door forBuffalo to win the division gets
a little bit wider.
So that's where we are with theleague.
That's where the league sits forme right now, at least.
The locals are giving youmaximum frustration and maximum

(28:25):
what does the future atquarterback look like?
The so-called tanking teams arelearning the hard way that
there's no guaranteed saviorcoming ever.
The old powers like Kansas Cityare suddenly mortal, dealing
with real injuries and actuallyhave some free time in January.
And you got guys like GarrettWilson and Sertan quietly having

(28:46):
all-time seasons while they'rescreaming about everything else.
From here, we're gonna pivotinto fantasy because if your
real team is cooked, yourfantasy team might be the only
thing holding your footballsanity together right now.
And then from there, we'll gointo the rolling the dice with
rice segment.
We'll talk about our picks,we'll talk about who we like,

(29:09):
try and make you some money thisweek, how to actually make some
of this chaos work in your favoron your betting slide.
Keep it right here, fantasy andpicks up next.

(29:40):
Time to put the helmets back onand time to take the wallets
out.
We're in the semis now, whichmeans two groups of people are
listening to this.
One, the sickos are still alive,and two, the equally sickos who
got bounced early, but are hatewatching everybody else's lineup

(30:01):
decisions.
So if you made it,congratulations.
If you got bounced, hey, I'vebeen there.
There's always some DFS andruining your friends' waiver
wire with bad advice, too.
The group saying that we have inmy 16-man league is good luck,
draft better.
And that's something we alwaystry to live by.

(30:24):
Either way, this part of theyear isn't really about who's my
sleeper anymore.
It's mostly about not steppingon a landmine in your lineup.
I mean, the worst feeling infantasy is rolling with a name
brand you kinda didn't trust,and then watching them only drop
seven points while someone onyour bench goes for 22.

(30:46):
So let's go through some ofthose guys that feel like
automatic starts, but couldabsolutely blow up your week.
And I want to preface this bysaying I'm not saying bench all
of them no matter what, don'tplay these guys.
It's a bad decision.
What I'm saying is if you have areal alternative, this is where

(31:09):
you can think twice with theseguys.
So, first on the list, we'llstart off with our quarterback.
And I hate to say it becauseit's my quarterback, and I gotta
do what I gotta do, but DakPrescott versus the Chargers.
So, look, Dak, if you if yousurvived last week with him, God
bless you.
I did.
He only put up 12 fantasy pointsat home, 294 yards, zero

(31:33):
touchdowns, they're running theball a lot more, nothing on the
ground from either.
But the week before that, 376yards, one touchdown, two picks,
still somehow under 20 fantasypoints in a smash spot versus
Detroit.
He was averaging over twopassing touchdowns a game
through the first three months,and now he's got three total

(31:54):
over his last three weeks.
And now he gets the Chargers.
And I know, I know your brainstill sees that powder blue, and
you think shootout, but thenumbers say otherwise now.
Second fewest fantasy pointsallowed to quarterbacks all
year, fewest passing touchdownsallowed all year, and they've
only given up four passingtouchdowns in their last six

(32:17):
games.
Over the last two months,quarterbacks are averaging under
nine fantasy points againstthem.
So unfortunately, if your choiceis Dak versus Justin Herbert or
Jordan Love Goff type, fine.
You're probably gonna ride itout.
But if you have a legit top tenoption sitting there, this is

(32:39):
one of those weeks where youmight you're allowed to swallow
your pride a little bit and say,I know you got me here, but I'm
not gonna go down with thisparticular ship this week.
Once we get to the finals, we'llsee how it goes.
As far as uh running backs, Igot two for you.
Ash and Jantey versus theTexans.
And I know, just like me, also,I know a lot of you drafted him

(33:03):
like he was gonna be the rookieyear Saquon.
A top 20 pick, all the buzz,highlight clips all summer.
And look, he hasn't been a totalbust.
He's actually RB16 on the year,which is surprising.
He's got about 14 PPR points agame, but he has cooled off

(33:25):
exactly when you cannot affordit.
His last three weeks, he's onlyaveraging 2.8 yards per carry
and like eight points per gamefantasy-wise.
So now what does he get?
He gets Houston.
You get a Texans defense thathas been legitimately top ten in
fewest fantasy points, allowedto running backs all year.
They barely give up 70 rushingyards a game.

(33:48):
Half a touchdown over the lastmonth.
And that's not like just facingrandom guys either.
That's Jonathan Taylor and JamesCook that they're putting those
stats up against.
So, look, most of you, includingmyself, are probably still gonna
have to start them.
Volume is volume.
But this is not set it andforget it, running back one

(34:09):
territory.
This is he's an RB2, and I needto mentally prepare myself for
11 carries, 43 yards, andhopefully he catches a screen
pass touchdown.
The other running back on thelist, Jalen Warren versus the
Lions.
And this one hurts because weall love the guy.

(34:30):
The problem is Kenneth Gainwellhas basically walked in and
taken his lunch money.
Last week, Warren had 12carries, 33 yards, three
catches, 15 yards.
Meanwhile, over the last fiveweeks, Gainwell is averaging 14
touches a game and 18 fantasypoints per game.
He he's their best pass gameweapon right now, and he's

(34:53):
living in that five to sixcatch, 40-ish yards range
through the air every week.
But Warren in that same stretchhas 10 total catches.
He's only ever cleared 15receiving yards in one game.
So now you drop that splitbackfield into a matchup with
the Lions this week, who aregiving up the second fewest

(35:17):
fantasy points to running backsall season.
And they've held running backsunder 17 points in eight of
their last ten.
So again, I'm not telling you tobench Warren for some random who
knows backup.
But if you've got a comparableguy, like another flex running
back, that RB2, RB3 range with abetter matchup, this is the one

(35:39):
where I'm not forcing Warreninto my lineup just because of
the name that he's been allyear.
Now for receivers, look, thisone's not gonna go over too
well, but let's talk about TerryMcLaurin, right?
So he's only played seven gamesbecause of the injuries, but
these last seven games he'slooked back, quote unquote.

(36:01):
He's getting about 15 points pergame over his last four.
The catch is though, it's verytouchdown dependent.
So in the games without atouchdown, he's only had eight
fantasy points per game.
And target share isn't reallyelite either.
He's only getting about sixtargets a game on the season.
Six or fewer in most weeks, andjust four targets last game

(36:24):
versus the Giants.
Washington, I don't know if younotice, Washington's not exactly
running the offense through himlike prime 2020, Terry.
Now, now he gets the Eagles.
And I know the Eagles have beenwhat they are all year.
Your brain immediately goes, oh,trash secondary, we'll be
alright.
But as of late, they've actuallyquietly clamped down.

(36:44):
Over the last three weeks,they're only allowing seven
total catches to receivers.
Zero touchdowns, only 50 yards agame.
So I don't know.
I mean, look, you're talkingTerry, talking about Terry
needing a touchdown, needingvolume against a unit that's
quietly gotten better over thelast couple weeks.

(37:05):
If you're deep at receiver, thisis a spot where the name value
and how hot he's been is adiscussion that you need to have
with yourself.
Next on the list, too, is BrianThomas Jr.
versus the Broncos.
He might be the single biggestfantasy fields versus fantasy
reality guy this year.
He was drafted like a top tenreceiver, and he's actually

(37:27):
sitting around wide receiver 44on the year.
Now the last two weeks havelooked better on paper.
12 points a game, 17 with fourfor 66 and a touchdown.
But that second game where heput out those numbers came in a
game where Trevor's TrevorLawrence exploded, had five
passing touchdowns, and a totalnightmare for the Jets defense,

(37:51):
which is just giving up.
So now he gets the Broncos,right?
A Denver defense that has beenlegitimately elite all year
versus receivers, and they'reespecially dirty against number
one receivers.
Over the last month and a half,wide receiver ones are averaging
under ten points.

(38:12):
Only Nico Collins and TerryMcLaurin have gone over that in
that stretch.
So if your whole Thomas Case is,he was a top 10 draft pick.
The talent has to show upeventually.
He's due to break out.
That's cool, but that's not anargument you want to make in the
semifinals in Denver against asecondary that's destroyed
number one receivers all year.

(38:33):
As far as tight ends, HaroldFanner Jr.
is uh the real look, there's noway around it.
The rookie has been awesome.
He's top three in rookie of theyear voting or offensive rookie
of the year voting.
And over the past month, he'sbasically been a wide receiver
too in your tight end spot.
Averages six catches, 61 yards,gets about a touchdown a game,

(38:54):
almost 15 points per week.
You really can't ask for muchmore out of a guy you picked up
off the waiver wire.
But here comes Buffalo.
And the Bills are weird.
They're terrible against therun.
But for some reason, they'reabsolute death versus tight
ends.
They're giving up seven fantasypoints a game to the position,
which is the fewest in theleague by like six points.

(39:16):
In almost 80% of their games,tight ends are eight points or
less, and in 70% of their games,tight ends have three or fewer
catches.
Even last week, Fanton needed 14targets just to get 12 fantasy
points.
So if that target volumeregresses at all, which it
definitely will, and you slaminto the tightest tight end

(39:38):
matchup he's seen all year,you're gonna be staring down a
nasty four for thirty-eight typegame with no touchdown.
If you have another viableoption at tight end, Kittle,
Hawkinson, even maybe one of thestreamers that somebody cut
because they're out of theplayoffs or something.
This week is not a must startHarold because he's carried me

(39:59):
for.
A month situation.
When it comes to winning, yougotta be cold-blooded.
So that's what I got forfantasy.
Semifinals are less aboutdiscovering new heroes and more
about avoiding the obvioustraps.
Dak, Jante, Warren, McLaurin,BTJ, Fannin.
Again, I'm not saying you haveto bench them all, but I would

(40:24):
at least pressure test everysingle one of the options on
your bench against theirmatchup.
Now, let's make the anxiety evenworse.
And let's actually put somemoney behind where we're at.
Rolling the dice with rice, ourgambling segment, our pick
segment, I should say.
Week 16.

(40:45):
So last week, week 15, we went2-3.
Not great.
We hit on Texas minus 9.5 versusArizona.
Hit on the Jags minus 13.5versus the Jets.
We missed out on the Bills Patsunder and the Saints Panthers
over.
Just it was 17-17.
They caught a big play.
They were going for a touchdownand they kicked the field goal
instead.

(41:05):
And for the first time thisyear, I took the Giants at home
getting points against acommanders team, and they they
did me wrong.
I bet against them all year,they screwed me.
I bet with them, they screwedme.
So we missed out on Bills Pats,Saints, Panthers, and the Giants
plus two and a half.
Right now for the season, we'resitting at 34 and 32.
Profitable, ugly, butprofitable.

(41:25):
So let's let's try and clean itup a little bit this week,
right?
Game one, we're gonna go Packersat Bears, and we're taking Bears
plus one and a half.
I'm taking the home dog here,man.
It's cold, it's outdoors, it'sDecember.
This feels like a spot whereChicago has finally earned a
little bit of respect, and theBears run game has actually

(41:46):
turned into a real thing.
The defense isn't a turnstileanymore either, man.
They're making plays.
Caleb under Ben Johnson is kindof starting to look like a guy
who actually understands when totake the easy stuff, when to
take the check downs, when toget the yards.
Green Bay, meanwhile, comes inoff a bad loss to Denver.
They lost Michael Parsons to anACL.

(42:07):
And that's that's not just apass rush thing either.
That's an identity thing.
That's like a leader on the teamgoes down thing.
You take away your, oh crap, gomake a play guy, and suddenly
those third and sevens feel alot easier for the other team.
I think this turns into one ofthose old school NFC North rock
fights.
Bears try to shorten the game,they run the ball to keep Jordan

(42:30):
Love watching from the sideline.
He'll make some plays.
He always does.
And Green Bay always seems toown the Packers.
But I trust the Bears to keepthis within a field goal.
If not, win it outright.
So Kimi Chicago at home, plusone and a half.
Game two, Bangles at Dolphins.
The official line right now isBangles minus four and a half.
But I'm telling you right now,I'm gonna buy that down to minus

(42:52):
two and a half.
Yes, since he just got shut outby Baltimore, and yes, Joe
Burrow's comments set everybodyon fire.
If I'm gonna keep playing, Iwant to have fun.
Crazy things happen every year,and now everybody's trying to
sit there and play armchairtherapist.
And how does he feel?
What is he gonna do?
Blah, blah, blah, blah.
From a pure football standpoint,this is an easy classic bounce

(43:18):
back spot for Joe Burrow.
Getting shut out, getting inyour feelings.
Yeah, I guarantee you he's gonnacome out here and man up and
he's gonna throw for like threetouchdowns.
Miami is basically done, too.
I mean, they're six and eight.
They're officially eliminated,and Mike McDaniels is hanging on
by a thread.
Everybody thought when theyfired the GM that Mike McDaniels
was going to be right behindhim.

(43:39):
And he turned him around enoughfor a little bit to keep him
going, but now he turns aroundand benches Tua for rookie Quinn
Ewers.
There might be some juice there.
The kid could come out slinging,maybe, you know, we'll see.
But it's still a rookie makinghis first real start against a
veteran Bengals defense that'shurt how soft they looked all

(44:00):
week and all year.
You don't think they want tohave their moment of welcome to
the league, kid?
Since he's a mess record-wise, Iknow.
But Burrow is way too proud toput two complete no-shows on the
tape back to back.
So I think they come in focus,they handle business, and they
get out with a win by at least afield goal.

(44:20):
So I'm buying it down to two anda half, and we're gonna roll
with the Tiger Stripes, with theBengals.
Right?
Okay, game three on the card,Raiders at Texans.
This is gross.
I don't care.
I'm doing it again.
Last week, we took them, Houstonlaid a big number and covered,
and I think we're staring at theexact same movie just with

(44:41):
different uniforms.
The Raiders are awful.
Like, worst offensive line inthe league by a mile.
Awful.
And they're walking into amatchup against a Texans
defensive front that's young,deep, hungry, and playing mean.
This is one of those games whereI can honest to God genuinely

(45:02):
see the Raiders having 17minutes of possession time.
Half of that is like three anounce.
Houston gets up early, they turnthe pass rush loose, maybe even
score on defense or specialteams, and then they just keep
adding on.
The backdoor is always live fora number like this, but I think
the mismatch in the trenches isjust so wide that the Raiders

(45:26):
never really hang around at all.
So I'm gonna lay the big one.
Give me Texans minus 14 and ahalf.
If you don't feel comfortable,go 13 and a half just for the
two scores, but I think you'retotally fine.
For the locals, game four, Jetsat Saints.
This is this this one is purehold your nose and click submit,

(45:46):
but give me the Jets plus fourand a half.
Who cares, right?
Both teams are bad.
Both teams kind of feel likethey've mentally packed it in
for the offseason.
But this line is basicallysaying to you that the Saints
are clearly better than theJets.
And I'm not really sure thatthey are.
New Orleans is playing better,sure.

(46:07):
But they're still not a team Itrust to blow anybody out or win
by a touchdown.
And on the Jets side, you know,as ugly as it's been, you could
get a little spark from BradyCook starting again.
Another one under his belt,maybe he sees things a little
bit better.
You could get a little emotionalresponse on the defense with

(46:28):
Wilkes gone and guys worryingabout who's gonna get blamed
next now.
Look, do I trust the Jets towin?
No, not really.
Do I trust them to lose by afield goal in the most painful
way possible?
100%.
Some 65 yarder from a kid that'snever hit a 40 yarder in his
life.
But if that's the case, I'lltake the points and the misery

(46:50):
at the same time.
Give me Jets plus four and ahalf.
Game five, Vikings at Giants.
And I went I went back to thewell with the Giants last week
and they burned me.
And you know what?
I'm still coming back.
I just, I don't know.
This is one of those games theGiants win and the fans freak
out because it messed up theirdraft position.

(47:12):
They're sitting at 2-12, butthey're in basically every game.
They get drops, they get weirdpenalties, they get a bad
turnover, and then the wholething falls apart.
But Jackson Dart has shown thathe can play.
He can actually play in thisleague.
Just the details around him area mess.
Minnesota, on the other hand,they're officially eliminated.

(47:34):
They were eliminated last week.
So now it's that we're playingfor 2026 tape phase.
So some guys are gonna playhard, but McCarthy is still
learning, they're still figuringout how to get Jefferson the
ball consistently, which isastounding to me.
That creates volatility.
I think this is another tightone.

(47:56):
Two young quarterbacks, twoflawed rosters.
Giants team that just feelsdestined to win just enough late
to wreck their draft position.
You know?
So I'm not only taking thepoints, I'm gonna buy it up.
The official line is Giants plustwo and a half, but we're gonna
move it up to three and a halfjust to cover the inevitable

(48:18):
lose by a field goal scenario.
So that's it.
That's the slate.
Bears plus one and a half,Bengals minus two and a half.
We bought it down.
Texans minus 14.5, Jets plusfour and a half, and Giants plus
three and a half.
We bought that up from two and ahalf.
Last week, two and three, season34 and 32.
We're in the black, but barely.

(48:39):
So time to either build a littlecushion before the playoffs or
go down swinging with the homedogs and the backup
quarterbacks, right?
Who cares?
So now that that's said fromhere, we're gonna pivot into the
NBA.
We're gonna talk some Knicks,the NBA Cup, and honestly, why
hanging, not hanging the bannerbecame way more of a thing than
it needed to be.
And I'll give you my way on howto fix this whole tournament for

(49:01):
the fans and the teams.
Keep it right here, Hardwoodnext.
Let's slide on over to the NBAfor a second because the Knicks
just did a very Knicks thing inthe most non-Knicks way

(49:22):
possible.
They actually won something andthen immediately got caught in
an argument about whether itcounts or not.
So the Knicks, the Knicks takethe NBA Cup in Vegas.
124, 113 over Wemby and theSpurs.
OG drops 28, Brunson gives you25, walks away with the cup MVP.

(49:43):
Big Cat hobbles his way to 16and 11 on a bad calf, and
Mitchell Robinson grabs 15boards in 18 minutes, including
10 offensive rebounds againstthe best rebounding team in the
West.
10.
That's not rebounding, that'sshoplifting.
They absolutely mauled SanAntonio on the glass.

(50:05):
59-42 overall, 56-44 in thepaint.
That's the game right there.
The Spurs led basically allnight, and then the Knicks did
the most Villanova Knicks thingever.
They just kind of squeezed thegame to death in the second
half.
The bench shows up huge.
Jordan Clarkson hits back toback threes to flip the lead.
And then Tyler Koelick comes in,shows, I'm the uh the

(50:29):
stereotypical pain in the asswhite boy point point guard that
every team needs to win achampionship, and he runs a real
offense like he's been in theleague for 10 years.
Mitch just lived in therestricted area the whole night.
That's exactly how you go on a13-1 run, flip a 10-point
deficit, and then never trailagain the rest of the game.
And the crazy thing is, thiswasn't some cute November

(50:53):
one-off thing.
I mean, the cup has been arounda couple years now.
Every team that's made the finalhas turned around and made the
playoffs.
The Pacers use it to springboardinto the East Finals.
OKC won the whole league theyear after.
I mean, there's a pattern there.
Mike Brown in the postgamebasically said it out loud.

(51:14):
He said, This is themanufactured pressure that you
want.
Single elimination, money on theline, one game in Vegas with the
whole league watching.
It's not the playoffs, but it'sthe reps.
Brunson, being the leader thathe is, even made a point during
his MVP Cup award thing to shoutout the role guys.

(51:36):
Clarkson, Koelick, Robinson.
Because those are the guys whoare going to matter in real
playoff rounds when the whistlegets tight and it's your eighth
man deciding if you're going towin a game in May or not.
Now, what happens?
Instead of just enjoying thatfor five minutes, we immediately

(51:57):
pivot into the most NYXconversation ever.
Do we hang a banner or not?
Mike Brown was all about it.
Mike Brown's out there rightafter the win, basically
picturing it with his name upthere.
Quote, we get to hang a bannerin MSG, the most iconic arena in
the league, yada, yada, yada.
You can tell in his head that hewas already, he already saw it
getting raised up next to 73.

(52:20):
And then not even 12 hourslater, the report comes out and
it's like, yeah, we're we're uhwe're actually not hanging
anything.
I mean, the Lakers hang a cupbanner, the Bucs hang a cup
banner, the Knicks finally winsomething in my lifetime that
isn't a first round gentleman'sexit, and they go, nah, we're

(52:41):
good.
Which it's it's gonna go upregardless.
Do you think in any form of thisuniverse that the league is not
gonna contact Madison SquareGarden and Jim Dolan and say,
hey man, we're trying to promotethis thing.
You're a big market, you have toraise this banner.
Like, there's no way that theydon't put this banner up.
Anyway, you got three camps offans when it comes to this

(53:05):
tournament.
You got one side screaming it'sa fugazi tournament, it doesn't
count, who cares?
Why are we even bothering withthis?
And then you had the other sidewanting a full canyon parade,
which is also silly.
The real side, the rationalside, is can we just enjoy being
good at basketball for like fiveminutes?

(53:27):
Remember where we came from,remember the lineups, the
starting fives that we watched?
And that's I'm firmly in thatcamp.
That's exactly where I am.
Look, if you're calling the cupfake at this point, you're kind
of just being dumb.
You're kind of just not allowingyourself to be in the moment.
Look, is it a Larry O'Brien?

(53:47):
No, of course not.
But is it more meaningful than arandom Tuesday in Charlotte in
January?
Yeah, absolutely it is.
You put players in a singleelimination environment, you put
half a million dollars on theline, winners get 500k each, and
you tell me you're not playingharder, you tell me the guys
aren't going to lace up a littletighter?

(54:09):
You watch that game.
That didn't look like a Thursdayin Orlando.
That looked like something,something cool, something good.
Now, could the NBA make it evenbetter?
100%.
Look, for the players, themoney, the money's already
there.
They're already incentivized,they already get their kick.

(54:29):
But the problem isn't theplayers, the problem is the
fans.
So if you really want the fansto buy in, you need to make it
exclusive.
You need to make it somethingthat only you as a fan of the
supporting team get.
And you you kind of need to makeit matter to the GMs for roster

(54:51):
building, for the league toroster build, too.
So here's how I would here's howI would fix it, right?
I say you open up an onlineregistration right before the
final, right before the semis,maybe the quarters, right?
When your team makes it to thenext round.
And let's call it maybe thefirst 30,000, 40,000, 50,000,

(55:12):
whatever.
You go on, you sign up, and youget access to a numbered NBA cup
hat or t-shirt if your teamwins.
You know, people nowadays areobsessed with pulling Pokemon
cards and this, that, and theother, and it's a one of one or
a one of a hundred or whatever.
If I got a 2,000 out of 50,000t-shirt, at least I know I'm one

(55:37):
of 50,000.
You know, I was there for thefirst Knicks Cup.
And then for the team, I thismight sound a little outlandish,
but I say you give the winner a1 to 2% salary cap bump for the
following year.
That's not it.
It's not enough to break theleague, right?

(55:58):
You're not getting a 10% bump.
But 1-2% is not nothing either.
It's definitely enough toactually help.
Enough for a team that's likeflirting with that second apron
to keep one of their glue guysinstead of dumping them off.
All of a sudden, the cup, thecup isn't just some cool little

(56:19):
mid-season thing that we get togo to Vegas for.
It's more of like, hey, if wewin this, it might be the
difference between keeping oursix man or not.
And that's exactly how you getcoaches, front offices, and fan
bases all pulling in the samedirection.
And if you're the Knicks, Imean, tell me you wouldn't love
to see this front office get alittle extra cap space to play
with this summer, especiallywith Giannis looming in the

(56:41):
background, floating around.
There's another little funnywrinkle to this too.
Mikhail Bridges, look, we allknow he's the Iron Man, right?
He plays all 82 every year.
He doesn't believe in loadmanagement.
He's basically the uh anti-KawhiLeonard.
But because the cup finaltechnically doesn't count
towards the regular seasonrecord, he might actually end up

(57:03):
being the first guy to play 83games in a year and not have it
count, though.
Only the Knicks could win atitle that doesn't show up in
the standings and then have anIron Man record that's also not
gonna show up in the standings.
It's it's actually it'sbeautiful, to be honest with
you.
Now, on the other side of it, Ido have to give the Spurs a

(57:25):
quick nod because they're gonnabe a problem for a long time if
they stick together here.
I mean, you saw flashes in thatgame.
Dylan Harper drops 21 off thebench.
Wemby was kind of hurt, kind ofnot.
Still goes for 18 and 16, and helooked annoyed he couldn't do
more, to be honest with you.
Stefan Castle's out hereflirting with a triple-double in
an elimination game.

(57:46):
And that's kind of still withthem all figuring out roles,
still trying to integrate guys.
And actually also dealing withreal life stuff.
Wemby literally found out thathis grandmother died the day of
the game.
Goes out emotional, he stillbattles.
This this tournament seems sillyat first to the players, but I'd
be willing to bet that in thenext couple years, a lot of
these players, especially theyounger guys, are going to start

(58:08):
to buy into it.
Because really, think about it.
Their whole basketball lives,their whole basketball career,
they've been doing what?
They've been playing in AAUtournies and college invitations
and March Madness winner-go-homestyle events.
So now instead of the grind of82 games, they get guys to
relive the days of old a littlebit.

(58:29):
Buy into the single elimination,winner, win or go home kind of
stuff.
And as for the Spurs, KeldenJohnson said it perfectly.
This is the first time in awhile that they've been expected
to win stuff, and they lost.
So losing actually stings in anew way.
That's how you know the culturehas turned.
Not that they've ever really hada culture problem with pop, but

(58:50):
it is a new era.
It's a new generation.
So now they get to take thatVegas environment, that big
stage, neutral floor, everyonewatching, and plug it into an
actual playoff push this year.
And I just want to circle backto the big picture in the NBA.
The NBA is kind of in this weirdin-between spot.

(59:12):
We got that note from AdamSilver that 2026 is when they're
finally going to make a decisionon expansion, whether it be
Seattle, Vegas, or a mysterymarket.
But he basically said we'redoing the homework and we're
talking to owners right now, andwe're going to pull the trigger
in 26 if the math works.
But at the same time, they'rereporting that the NBA Cup might

(59:34):
be moving out of Vegas as aneutral site.
The semifinals and the finalshave done their job in terms of
TV and hype, but you can see theempty seats.
I mean, the game literallydidn't sell out, and it wasn't
because of the markets in thefinals.
Both are big market teams.
There is just too much to do inVegas.
You can feel the energydifference compared to those

(59:54):
quarterfinals in home arenas.
So, on one hand, Vegas has quiteBecome the 31st NBA City, quote
unquote.
Summer League, NBA Cup, all thestuff the league does out there.
But on the other hand, theactual cup games there sometimes
feel like you're watching aWednesday night neutral floor

(01:00:15):
college tournament, which is whythe league is talking about
shifting it.
Maybe turning the final intoanother home market event
instead of just plopping it inthe desert every year.
So on the whole, you got Knickswinning a real-ish thing and
then pretending like theydidn't.
You got fans screaming fugazi ata tournament that clearly does

(01:00:38):
make the players play harderthan a normal regular season
week.
And you got a commissionerlining up expansion in the
background while quietlyadmitting that, yeah, the Vegas
neutral thing isn't quiteexactly hitting as the way we
hoped it would.
And to me, this fits kind ofright exactly into what we've
been talking about all episode.
That December doesn't matteruntil it actually 100% does

(01:00:59):
matter.
The Knicks just banked pressurereps.
A trophy, a little psychologicaledge in a conference that's wide
open.
And the Spurs just got theirkids real reps in a big game
environment.
And then the league just got abetter read on what works and
what doesn't.
Where to take this thing next,whether that's a new city or new
cup rules or whatever.

(01:01:21):
They're figuring it out.
So we'll see how it goes.
I'm excited to see itregardless.
I think the cup could actuallywork.
So from here, we're gonna keepthe same energy and we're gonna
slide into baseball.
Because the Mets are in theexact same emotional space.
You understand the plan, you seethe logic, you get it, but it

(01:01:45):
still hurts.
It still hurts watching yourguys hold up a different team's
jersey saying, uh, this is whereI want it to be.
Diamond talk next.

(01:02:05):
To quote the great Joe Beningo,oh the pain, bro.
Let's talk pain because that'sbasically what this MLB Mets
heavy centric segment is gonnabe.
A therapy session disguised assome baseball analysis.

(01:02:27):
We woke up one day and suddenlythe core that we've been talking
ourselves into for years is justgone.
Edwin Diaz and Dodger Blue, PeteAlonzo in Orioles Orange, which
looks gross by the way, andBrandon Nemo in a Rangers
jersey.
We're sitting here with aPolanco press release and a Luke

(01:02:47):
Weaver deal, just trying toconvince ourselves it's all part
of the plan.
And unfortunately, the annoyingpart is it is part of the plan.
But that doesn't mean that itdoesn't sting, you know?
Let's start with Edwin becausethat one feels the most

(01:03:08):
personal, I guess.
He had offers on the table.
Dodgers, three years, and thenthey bumped it up to 69 million
with a$9 million bonus, and theydeferred$13.5 over 10 years,
plus a conditional option.
Okay.
Braves, they offered him fiveyears, but still wouldn't meet
him at what he wanted for a realAAV, so they were out.

(01:03:31):
So the Mets come in this winter.
And they're like, look, we wantyou back, but we want you on our
structure.
First offer, three years, 66million, with 21 million
deferred over 10 years.
Then they come he comes back,they tweak it, they add the 9
million signing bonus to match aDodgers, but they spread the
same 21 million deferral over 15years.

(01:03:54):
On paper, that looks close, butin reality it's not.
And Diaz basically said, I wantat least 20 million a year in a
real value and less funny moneystretched to 2040.
Mets Mets drew their line in thesand.
Dodgers said, Cool, we'll beyour bank.
Come on down.
So, yes, he was annoyed thatthey didn't even loop him in

(01:04:17):
before locking in DevinWilliams.
And yeah, he still waited forthe Mets to come correct.
And yeah, they didn't, and hebounced.
But to be fair, I mean, Diaz,you opted out, so you're a free
agent.
So why do I have to discuss withyou what plans I want to make?
You're not currently part of theteam.
I don't know.

(01:04:37):
From a cold-blooded,cold-blooded front office
standpoint, I get it.
Relievers are very volatile,right?
Diaz is 32.
You already backed up the truckonce for him, but from a fan
standpoint, you just watchedTimmy Trumpets walk out of the
door after he literally said hewanted to be here.
What?
Because ownership got cute withdeferrals.

(01:05:00):
And he went to, you know, ahated rival that knocked you out
of the NLCS.
So both things can be true.
Speaking of Dodgers, since we'rehere, let's zoom out on this uh
Dodgers deferral money thingbecause it ties right into that
story.
They now owe just over$1 billionwith a B billion dollars in

(01:05:23):
deferred money to nine differentdudes, stretched all the way to
2047.
Otani's the big one, obviously,$680 million from 2034 to 2043.
That's a joke, right?
Mookie Betts is owed$150 millionin salaries plus a$5 million
bonus chunks into the 2030s.
You got Freeman, Snell, Smith,Teosker, Tommy Edmund, Tanner

(01:05:45):
Scott, and now Edwin Diaz allhave money kicked way, way down
the road.
You read that as a fan and yougo, how is this even how is this
even allowed?
And like the other question Iask is what happens if the
Guggenheim collection wakes upone day and says, eh, we're
done.
We're good, or we're bankrupt.

(01:06:07):
Well, unfortunately, the boringanswer to that is MLB contracts
are guaranteed, right?
If an owner bails or a team evertruly went underwater, those
obligations become part of thesaleslash bankruptcy stew.
So the new owner basically buysthe club and the IOUs, right?

(01:06:29):
It's like buying a business indebt.
Also, the league absolutely doesnot want sorry shohei, the
checks are bouncing to happen.
So they would force a salebefore they ever ever let
anything get that bad.
But it's still, you know, JesusChrist.
Anyway, from a playerperspective, you're mostly safe,

(01:06:53):
but from a league healthperspective, the Dodgers are
basically acting like along-term annuity company at
this point.
They they created this giantghost payroll that only exists
on a spreadsheet until itdoesn't.
And that's the contrast.
The Mets clearly don't want tolive in that world.

(01:07:14):
They drew the line in the sandon Diaz's deferrals and
structure, and in the process,they watched him join a team
that absolutely does not careabout any of that.
Next up, you got Pete.
Five years, 155 million from theOrioles.
And then it came out that theMets didn't even make a formal
offer because that number wasjust so far beyond what they

(01:07:34):
valued him at.
Again, on a spreadsheet, you cantalk yourself into it.
A slugging first baseman,entering his 30s with defensive
limitations, swing and miss,etc.
etc.
etc.
Right.
You could argue you're buyingdeclining years at a premium and
blocking flexibility with Sotoand future free agents and kids

(01:07:55):
coming up.
Fine.
But this is where the human sidekicks in, right?
He's the franchise home runleader over Daryl Strawberry.
He legitimately embraced thecity and the fan base.
He was our lovable idiot.
And he's one of the faces ofthat 2022, 2023, this might
actually be something season.

(01:08:15):
And now, now where is he?
Now he's going to hit in themiddle of the Baltimore lineup
with Gunner and Adley.
And we we have to pretend thatJorge Polanco at first base
doesn't feel like putting aband-aid on a bullet wound,
right?
You can understand the logic andstill want to vomit when you see
him in black and orange.
Both things live in the samebrain.

(01:08:39):
So when you put it all together,Nimo traded for Simeon, Diaz
gone, Alonzo gone, Tyler Rogerwalks, Williams is in, Weaver is
in, and the picture that DavidStearns is trying to paint is
starting to get pretty clear.
He basically looked at the wholegroup and said, Yep, that was a

(01:08:59):
fun run in 24.
That was a brutal collapse in25.
Two postseason series wins inseven years.
This core is not good enough.
We're just not running it backbecause you guys bought the
jerseys.
Sorry, it is what it is.
So he's keeping Lindor and Sotoas the pillars.
There was some smoke talk aboutLindor possibly getting moved.

(01:09:23):
I don't think that's hiscontract's too big and Lindor is
a staple in this town.
Steve Cohn would never let it.
Stearns is going to berebuilding the rotation and
bullpen on the fly.
They're refusing to tack on dumbyears or crazy deferrals just to
keep the band together.
And they're going to lean on afarm system that's finally not a

(01:09:43):
complete joke.
That's the plan.
That's why there's a bunch ofrumors about the Mets signing
smaller term arms like FrambertValdez or looking for trade
targets for Freddie Peralta orMcKenzie Gore or Nick Pavetta.
And I guess the dream scenariois selling the farm for Therese
Goobel and handing him the ballon opening day, but Dodgers,

(01:10:07):
excuse me, Detroit really.
He's on the market, but he seemslike his price is ridiculous.
And then you got the lineup sidenow.
There's a lot of strong chatterabout Cody Bellinger because of
the versatility.
He could play center, he couldplay the corner outfields, he
could play first.
Okay, fine.
You got the pipe dreams likeKyle Tucker or Alex Bregman,

(01:10:28):
which I would really like AlexBregman.
And then you got the moresternsey options like trading
for a guy in Jared Duran orsomething of that mold, like a
younger, under control,athletic, not yet paid kind of
guy.
And the national folks arebasically split down the middle.
Some of them are saying the Metshave the money and the

(01:10:50):
prospects.
This is the time to beaggressive and to bully the
market.
Cohen knows a thing or two aboutthat.
But the other half are like,look, if you're not going to pay
your own stars and you're notgoing to trade the top kids,
you're walking a tightrope ofhalf measures.
You're walking a very fine linewith very minimal room for
failure.
And as a Met fan, you feel thattension.

(01:11:13):
It's like, what are we doing?
Are we reloading?
Are we doing the Brewer's thingin Queens with a nicer coat of
paint?
I mean, we're we have the money.
We don't have to be cheap.
Quick nod to the moves that theyhave made.
Devin Williams is in his closer,which I mentioned before, which
he was the best closer inbaseball until he came to the

(01:11:34):
Yankees.
So we'll see.
And then they bring in LukeWeaver on a two-year,$22 million
deal as like the multi-inningbridge kind of guy, like the
setup man.
And Weaver's kind ofinteresting.
Look, as a Yankee, he wasbasically two completely
different pitchers.
Before he got hurt with thehamstring, he had a 1-5 ERA,
1-05 ERA, excuse me, in 24games.
Like he looked nasty.

(01:11:54):
His changeup was disgusting.
But after the hamstring, hestarted tipping his pitches a
little bit.
He had a 5-3-1 ERA.
That's a brutal, brutal ERA.
That's a brutal fall off.
So again, relievers arevolatile, right?
You're betting you can get himback to that early 24 version
and let him and Williams eat inthe 7th, 8th, 9th.

(01:12:18):
Okay, shorten the game.
And of course, of course, assoon as the Mets sign any
ex-Yankee, every single Yankeefan becomes a cap guru and a
pitching coach and enjoy ourtrash, bro.
Like, yeah, we got rid of himfor a reason.
Meanwhile, there have beenplenty of Yankee signings that
were former Mets over the years.

(01:12:38):
I mean, everybody just shrugslike it doesn't matter.
Like you guys want to make funof the Mets about it, whatever.
This pipeline is a two-waytraffic street, and it has been.
I mean, does Marcus Stroman ringa bell to anybody?
I think you guys are stillpaying him.
Look, and honestly, Yankee fansdon't really have the high
ground to sit on and yell downat us either right now.
They have been weirdly quietthis offseason.

(01:13:01):
And there is a ton of smokecoming out of the camp that they
really want to stay under someinternal number around the$300
million range, and they don't,they're like right on the edge
of that.
They don't really have the moneyto pay anybody.
And on top of it, you've alreadywatched Williams and Weaver walk
over to Queens.
So if I were a Yankee fan, Idon't know, man, I'd be chewing

(01:13:24):
my fingers down a little bit.
Both New York teams are in thatsame weird place that like we
have money, we haveexpectations, but we also seem
kind of scared for the next bigleap.
That's not how New York teamsare supposed to operate.
So where does that leave us,right?
Where where are we?
Well, for me, the met spot rightnow is is this, right?

(01:13:46):
I understand almost everythingthat's happened.
I mean, I can sit here and walkthrough the logic for Nemo, for
Diaz, for Alonzo.
I I can see the vision.
Uh get younger, get moreflexible, rebuild the rotation.
Don't be don't be the teampaying a 37-year-old slugger$30

(01:14:07):
million just because they werefun when they were 29, right?
But none of that makes it feelany better when one of your
favorite players is introducedat another team's press
conference.
And in New York, there is aclock on quote, just trust me.
You know?
Look, if Cerns follows this upwith like a legit top of the

(01:14:30):
rotation guy or two, like a realbat in the outfield, or even at
first, or DH or whatever, andlike a serious bullpen piece to
back behind Williams, then fine.
In six months, when we look backat it and say, okay, yeah, that
hurt, but he was right.
This is a better baseball teamwith like a higher ceiling,

(01:14:52):
we're gonna do better.
Fine.
I'll, you know, I'll be happyabout it.
But if he doesn't, man, if weroll into 2026 with, hey, Devin
Williams is pretty good, he'sgonna bounce back, and we're
gonna hope that the kids mash aslike the big overall overarching
plan.
This town is gonna turn on himso fast.
It'll make the Scherzer tradelook like a Hallmark movie.

(01:15:14):
It'll look like Frankensteingetting chased like uh Barney.
Okay.
The same boy genius tag becomesan overthinking nerd who let the
heart of the team walk away fornothing overnight.
So, yeah.
Right now, I'm in that messymetal.

(01:15:35):
Okay, my head gets it.
I understand it.
My heart hates it, can't standit.
Really upsetting when I look atmy Alonzo jersey.
And my eyes, well, my eyes areon whatever the next move is.
And make sure it's a big one.
You need a big splash here,Stearns.
Since we're talking aboutfutures and lottery tickets and

(01:15:58):
signings and all that, I thinkit's a perfect time to swing
over to college football.
Because there are a couplequarterbacks that are about to
play some playoff games thatmight change where they get
drafted entirely.
Or even if they come out at all.
Episode's running a little long.
We'll hit college football quickand then we'll get you out of
here with the outro.
Keep it right here.

(01:16:25):
Okay, let's uh let's land thisthing with some college football
for a few minutes here.
Because college football rightnow is basically one giant
quarterback job fair.
The playoff starts, and everythrow is going to be watched by
NFL front offices like it's yourfavorite TV show of all time.

(01:16:46):
You got Indiana sitting there asthe number one seed.
Kurt Signetti wins back-to-backAP coach of the year titles.
They go 13-0, first Big Tentitle since 1967.
Jesus Christ.
They were legitimately thelosingest program in major
college football like fiveminutes ago.

(01:17:07):
And now they got a Heismanwinner, A B player of the year,
Fernando Mendoza, and they're atop seed in the 12-team playoff.
What a flip the script moment.
That's insane.
And for me, Mendoza is QB1 untilsomebody rips it away from him.
I'm already all in on theMendoza to the Jet Street
scenario.
You guys know that if you'vebeen listening.

(01:17:28):
But this playoff is where thatstuff actually moves around.
Look, if he runs the table, ifhe wins a natty as the number
one seed and looks the partdoing it, that's the kind of
thing that locks you in thefront office.
You don't just see the stats.
You see the dude handling thepressure on the biggest stage.
But on the flip side, this iswhere some of the other guys can

(01:17:51):
make life a little complicated.
You look at Moore out of Oregonand Simpson at Bama.
In this bracket, if one of thoseguys goes on a heater for three
or four games in a row againstsome elite defenses and some
elite coaching, that's exactlyhow you go from eh, maybe late
first if I come out, to, oh,this guy's uh this guy's pushing

(01:18:14):
Mendoza for a top five slothere.
And that's really what thiswhole 12-team playoff does.
It gives quarterbacks morechances to change the
conversation, right?
You ball out in December andJanuary now, and you're not just
winning a ring, you're you'reprinting money.
You get your big contract, youget to the show.
But on the other side of it, yougot guys like Arch Manning

(01:18:37):
saying, nah, I'm good, I'mcoming back.
And Lenore Sellers and like, youknow, all those guys.
I mean, they he could haveeasily declared a redshirt
sophomore, putting up some realnumbers.
It looked ugly to start, but hefigured it out and he pushed
Texas into a playoffconversation.
Meanwhile, his dad's literallytexting the ESB man like
Archie's playing, Archie'splaying football Texas next

(01:18:58):
year.
I mean, Sark basically said itout loud.
He pulled the old uh uh PeteCarroll, Mark Sanchez.
Yeah, yeah, another year helpshim physically, mentally,
maturity-wise, and you know, wegot some unfinished business,
yada, yada, yada, basicallyforcing his hand.
But I kind of actually lovethat.
I mean, not every kid needs tosprint to the draft just because

(01:19:21):
they technically can.
And I not that he needs it, notthat Manning needs any money,
but with NIL money now, you canstay, you can develop, you can
chase an SEC title, you canchase a national title, you can
come out more polished, moreready.
Like, you just be ready to goonce you hit the pro time.
Now, your age will affect yourcontract later, but you know,

(01:19:43):
it's a double edged sword.
That ties into what I was sayingon the NFL side about tanking.
It's all a lottery ticket.
There is no magic ear where youhave to be bad to get the guy.
Tua was literally the tank forTua probably.
Poster child.
And now he's benched in Miamifive years later.

(01:20:04):
Meanwhile, a kid like Mendoza,who nobody has been chanting
slogans about for the last threeyears, rides Indiana from rock
bottom to number one and becomesthe prize.
It's all just darts at adartboard, guys.
The other angle here, you gotDylan Rayola, a former five-star

(01:20:25):
golden child, and he flips fromGeorgia to Nebraska to follow
the family legacy, right?
Awesome, great story.
Starts early, puts up almost4,800 passing yards across two
seasons, but then snaps hisfibula.
And Nebraska fires his uncle offthe staff, his little brother
decommits.
Now he's hitting the portal,looking for a place that he can

(01:20:46):
quote best harness hispotential.
That's a wild sentence for a kidwho was literally supposed to be
the safest thing in this class.
And again, it's all environment.
Same arm, same frame, sametalent, but a different
offensive line, a different playcaller, different program
stability.
All of a sudden we're talkingabout him needing to reset

(01:21:08):
instead of a statue in his handsto come Heisman time.
So when you zoom out on thiswhole playoff picture, you've
got Mendoza trying to submithimself as the guy.
You've got a couple otherquarterbacks with a chance to
steal some shine from him ifthey go on a run.
And then you got big names likeArch choosing development over

(01:21:30):
the quick bag.
And for all these kids who arestill thinking about declaring,
this is the stage that makes thedecision for them.
If you're on the fence and thenall of a sudden you go into this
12-team playoff and you light uptwo or three top ten defenses
and you have some big games,your team makes a big run.
I got news for you, kid.

(01:21:50):
You're not going back to class,you're going to the green room.
So, yeah, look, we'll we'regonna keep an eye on the scores
and the matchups and all that,but I'm really watching this
thing like it's a four-weekquarterback stock market.
Mendoza trying to hold on to thenumber one spot, and everybody
else is trying to flip theirdraft board from maybe to I

(01:22:11):
can't pass on him.
And selfishly, I admit I amwatching this through a New York
lens too, because if one ofthese kids ends up in green and
white and does the damn thing,or even you know, becomes so
good, and the Giants have thefirst overall pick and they can
trade out of it and bails theGiants out of you know miserable

(01:22:32):
football, we're all gonna golooking back to these playoff
games and say, yeah, this isexactly where it started.
Alright, that's it.
I told you I'd keep the collegefootball quick.
Episodes running long.
Thanks for sticking around.
Let's drop the outro and get youout of here.

(01:23:03):
Well, I think that's as good asa place as any to land this one.
We kinda kinda bounced all overthe map today, but it all
circled back to the same idea.
Everybody thinks they can gamethe future, and nobody's
actually in control of it.
You got Jets and Giant fan basesarguing over draft position,
like that's some kind of magiccheat code.

(01:23:25):
And meanwhile, both fan basesthat sucked for luck and tanked
for Tua are in QB Hell yetagain.
It's all lottery ticket, guys.
You just hope one of them turnsout to be a stud and not
another.
Hey, remember that guy on thatlist of failed quarterbacks?
We watched the Bills come backon the Pats.

(01:23:47):
Miles Garrett is chasinghistory, Mahomes going down, and
Burrow getting asked if he evenwants to be in Cincinnati
anymore.
The windows in the NFL are justway shorter and way weirder than
anybody wants to admit.
Fantasy Samis this week, ifyou're still in, rolling the
dice with rice, same deal.

(01:24:09):
You make the best read you can,man, and you live with it.
Sometimes the landmine goes offanyway.
It is what it is, right?
Knicks win the NBA Cup, don'twant to hang the banner.
Mets are letting fan favoriteswalk while they tell you that
there is a plan in place.
Trust us.
All while the Dodgers stackdeferred money to the moon, and

(01:24:29):
the Yankees are doing their bestpirates impression that don't
want to go over$300 millionpayroll.
It's all just different versionsof the same thing.
You can't skip the uncertainty.
You just gotta decide who you'regonna trust while you ride it
out.
So thanks for hanging out withme through all the chaos.
There's lots of sports going onright now.
I know the episode ran a littlelong, but I've got plenty to say

(01:24:52):
about everything going on.
If you enjoyed the episode,please share it with a friend.
Hit follow, jump in on theWednesday mic checks on
Instagram, DM me your takes,your rants, your mailbag
questions, anything.
I got a lot of followers that'llattest to I answer everybody,
and I actually have a real solidconversation back and forth with

(01:25:12):
you.
All of it can be found at Riceon the Radio on Instagram, on
Twitter, on TikTok, whatever.
It's at Rice on the Radio.
And as always, we close the showwith a reminder to spread good
energy in this world.
It costs nothing to be nice tosomeone for three minutes of
your day.
And make sure you tell someoneyou love them.

(01:25:34):
This has been episode 44 of Riceon the Mics.
I am your host, Ian Rice, andI'll talk to you next week, just
in time for the Christmasepisode.
Cheers, guys.