July 20, 2025 • 46 mins
In this shocking, season-ending episode we answer an email from another generous and Nameless listener regarding a levered portfolio for Nameless, Jr., their omnipotent baby in waiting. We also have fun with Fibonacci numbers.
And THEN we do our annual rebalancings of the first four sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. And we also do our weekly portfolio reviews.
Additional Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Bigger Pockets Money Podcast #1: The Secret to a 5% Safe Withdrawal Rate | Frank Vasquez
Bigger Pockets Money Podcast #2: We Built a 5% SWR Retirement Portfolio Using Fidelity in 48 Minutes (Golden Ratio Portfolio)
All Seasons Portfolio Write-Up: All Seasons Portfolio – Portfolio Charts
Golden Butterfly Portfolio Write-Up: Golden Butterfly Portfolio – Portfolio Charts
Golden Ratio Portfolio Write-Up: Golden Ratio Portfolio – Portfolio Charts
Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:
A foolish consistency may be the hobgoblin of little minds, but financial consistency through strategic portfolio rebalancing is the cornerstone of successful long-term investing. Welcome to Episode 439 of Risk Parity Radio, where we're tackling our annual portfolio rebalancing ritual with a healthy blend of investment wisdom and pop culture quips.
After sharing highlights from recent appearances on the BiggerPockets Money podcast where I guided host Mindy through constructing a risk parity portfolio using the golden ratio, we dive into an extraordinary listener story. TheNamelessOne made a mathematically beautiful donation of $5,321.10 to the Father McKenna Center—a reverse Fibonacci sequence that brilliantly connects to our golden ratio portfolio construction methods.
The market snapshot reveals gold shining brightest in 2023, up over 27% year-to-date, significantly outperforming both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. This performance pattern creates the perfect scenario for demonstrating the discipline of rebalancing—systematically selling high (primarily gold across all portfolios) and buying low (particularly Treasury bonds and small cap value).
Each of our four sample portfolios gets the rebalancing treatment, with the Golden Butterfly standing tall at 43.16% return since inception while maintaining sleep-at-night stability. For those fascinated by the mathematical underpinnings, I explore how the Fibonacci sequence approaches the golden ratio (approximately 1.618), creating natural proportions that translate beautifully to portfolio construction.
Beyond the standard portfolios, we venture into experimental leveraged territory—not recommended for beginners but fascinating for understanding how different approaches perform through market cycles. The stark contrast between our worst performer (Aggressive 50-50, down 11.37% since inception) and our best (Golden Butterfly) offers powerful lessons in risk management.
Whether you're a math enthusiast, movie quote afficionado, or serious DIY investor, this episode delivers practical rebalancing strategies while maintaining that distinctive Risk Parity Radio blend of education and entertainment. Your portfolio might march to the beat of a different drummer, but that's precisely what makes risk parity so fascinating.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Voices (00:01):
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds,
adored by little statesmen andphilosophers and divines.
If a man does not keep pacewith his companions, perhaps it
is because he hears a differentdrummer, a different drummer.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (00:19):
And now, coming to you from dead
center on your dial, welcome toRisk Parity Radio, where we
explore alternatives and assetallocations for the
do-it-yourself investor,broadcasting to you now from the
comfort of his easy chair.
Here is your host, frankVasquez.
Mostly Uncle Frank (00:37):
Thank you, Mary, and welcome to Risk Parity
Radio.
If you are new here and wonderwhat we are talking about, you
may wish to go back and listento some of the foundational
episodes for this program.
Voices (00:50):
Yeah, baby, yeah.
Mostly Uncle Frank (00:52):
And the basic foundational episodes are
episodes 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9.
Some of our listeners,including Karen and Chris, have
identified additional episodesthat you may consider
foundational, and those areepisodes 12, 14, 16, 19, 21, 56,
(01:13):
82, and 184.
Whoa, and you probably shouldcheck those out too, because we
have the finest podcast audienceavailable.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (01:26):
Top drawer, really top drawer.
Mostly Uncle Frank (01:31):
Along with a host named after a hot dog.
Voices (01:34):
Lighten up Francis.
Mostly Uncle Frank (01:37):
But now onward, episode 439.
Today on Risk Parity Radio, weare at the end of year.
Five Inconceivable 439 episodesin five seasons, gosh, and what
we always do at the end of theyear is rebalancing our first
(02:00):
four sample portfolios.
Voices (02:03):
Surely you can't be serious.
Mostly Uncle Frank (02:04):
I am serious and don't call me Shirley.
And so we'll be doing thattoday along with doing our
weekly portfolio reviews, and wedo have time for one email as
well.
Voices (02:15):
I'm intrigued by this how you say Emails.
Mostly Uncle Frank (02:19):
But before we get to that, just a couple
items of note here.
Before we get to that, just acouple items of note here.
First, I recently appeared onnot one but two episodes, two
consecutive episodes of theBiggerPockets Money podcast with
Scott and Mindy.
Mostly Mary And Some Voic (02:34):
Money .
Mostly Uncle Frank (02:42):
And in the first one we talked about
principles of risk, parity styleportfolio construction and
designing portfolios for highersafe withdrawal rates, and also
why one might want to do thatand how that differed from
approaches that were designedfor accumulation.
And in the second one, I guideMindy into constructing a risk
parity style portfolio Rexquando.
We use the buddy system no moreflying solo and we used a
(03:04):
variation of the golden ratiofor that.
So they're going to have asample portfolio over there now
and I'm not sure how they'regoing to run it, but we put
$10,000 in it and I thinkthey're going to be taking out
5% annualized on a monthly basis, and so we'll be working with
them to show them how that'sdone.
(03:25):
You need somebody watching yourback at all times, so stay
tuned for more antics andhijinks over at
BiggerPocketsMoney.
Voices (03:36):
Did you know something, Orson?
I'd like to thank you forletting me see what Mindy's life
would be like without me.
Mostly Uncle Frank (03:40):
You know, Mork, I think you're beginning
to grow.
Mostly Mary And Some Voice (03:44):
Well sir.
Voices (03:45):
I don't know how much value I have in this universe,
but I do know that I made a fewpeople happier than they would
have been without me.
Mostly Uncle Frank (03:54):
And as long as I know that I'm as rich as I
ever need to be.
We are also continuing tocollect comments on the new demo
website that Luke from Quebecis helping me with.
Voices (04:04):
We have top men working on it right now.
Who Top?
Mostly Uncle Frank (04:13):
men.
Actually he's doing all thework and I'm just engaged in my
usual nonsensical ravings.
It's not that I'm lazy, it'sthat I just don't care.
But to find that, go to thewebpage any webpage at
wwwriskparityradarcom.
If you go to the top and on theright, there's a little button
(04:36):
there for alt site and that willtake you to a demo of the
alternative site and we arecollecting comments on that
until the end of this month andthen Luke and I will sit down
and figure out exactly whatthat's going to look like.
But it should be good.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (04:53):
The best, Jerry the best.
Mostly Uncle Frank (04:55):
Or at least a lot better than what we have
right now.
Voices (04:58):
Just come up.
Mostly Uncle Frank (04:59):
Not that there's a very high bar there.
Voices (05:02):
Just come up.
Mostly Uncle Frank (05:03):
So if you have comments on that, please
send them to the emailfrankatriskparodyradiocom.
The email isfrankatriskparodyradiocom and we
will collect all those commentsand go through them in August.
And thirdly or last off inthese announcements, if you are
new here and have come over fromBigger Pock pockets or
(05:24):
elsewhere, I have a feelingwe're not in Kansas anymore.
Welcome to this podcast.
Voices (05:30):
You're not going to amount to jack squats.
Mostly Uncle Frank (05:35):
You will find that it sounds a lot
different than a lot of podcastsyou usually listen to.
Voices (05:39):
You are talking about the nonsensical ravings of a
lunatic mind.
Mostly Uncle Frank (05:45):
Mostly because it's a retirement hobby
for me, and so I am not tryingto build a giant audience or
attract sponsors or any of theother things that somebody who
is trying to be a professionalpodcaster might be doing, which
gives me a lot of license notonly to talk about interesting
topics such as portfolioconstruction, if you find that
(06:07):
interesting, but I'm also goingto goof off.
Mostly Mary And Some Voic (06:10):
Don't be saucy with me, Bernays.
Mostly Uncle Frank (06:13):
And act silly.
Voices (06:18):
All right, pinhead.
Your time is up.
Who you calling Pinhead?
Mostly Uncle Frank (06:21):
Which most of my listeners come to
appreciate, but still there's afew that do not appreciate that.
Voices (06:27):
You're gonna end up eating a steady diet of
government cheese and living ina van down by the river.
Mostly Uncle Frank (06:36):
But I accept that that may reduce the
quantity of my audience.
Voices (06:40):
You know what Napoleon?
Mostly Uncle Frank (06:42):
You can leave.
You know what, napoleon, youcan leave, although I do believe
it contributes to the improvedquality of my audience, at least
from my perspective.
Voices (06:54):
Oh behave.
Mostly Mary And Some Voice (06:57):
Yeah , yeah, baby yeah.
Mostly Uncle Frank (06:59):
But anyway, if you're new here, I'm glad
you're here and I hope you getat least a little something out
of this.
Forget about it.
Voices (07:09):
But now on with the show .
Here I go once again with theemail.
Mostly Uncle Frank (07:13):
And, as I mentioned, we're just going to
have one email today, and so,first off, second off, last off,
first, second and third off, wehave an email from
TheNamelessOne.
Voices (07:28):
I have no name.
Mostly Mary And Some Voice (07:31):
Well , that right there may be the
reason you've had difficultyfinding gainful employment.
Mostly Uncle Frank (07:36):
And TheNamelessOne writes Hi Frank.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (07:39):
I made a contribution to the
Father McKenna Center via mydonor advised fund.
Voices (07:44):
Yeah, baby, yeah.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (07:46):
I wasn't sure how to identify it
as a contribution for the Top ofthe T-Shirt campaign, so I just
did my best with what the formoffered.
Hopefully it came acrosswithout issue.
Voices (07:56):
Yes.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (07:57):
I donated anonymously, but you can
identify the contribution byits amount $5,321.10, a sequence
of numbers I expect you'llrecognize.
I am a few episodes behind, butI am pleased to see that the
nonsensical ravings have almostreturned to normal levels, since
(08:18):
one of your other listenersmade a generous $15,000 donation
.
Kudos to that kind soul.
Mostly Uncle Frank (08:25):
So shines a good deed in a weary world.
Mostly Mary And Some Voic (08:30):
There is no shortage of nonsense in
the world, but yours is a rarevintage of high quality.
Mary, congratulations on.
Of all the kings, god save theKing.
(08:55):
My nameless partner and Iproduced a nameless little one.
While in utero, my namelesslittle one contacted me and
insisted that I begin saving fortheir college education, dear
eight pound six ounce newborninfant Jesus don't even know a
word yet just a little infant,so cuddly but still omnipotent.
(09:18):
They instructed me to use anallocation of 25% UPRO three
times S&P 500 fund, 25% FZROXFidelity Total Market Index fund
, 50% FISVX Fidelity Small CapValue Index fund.
I complied, investing thoseETFs via a taxable brokerage
(09:40):
account, but seeing an earlyonset gambling problem, I hedge
the bet by also saving into a529 plan for them.
The 529 plan money is investedin an S&P 500 index.
My quandary is this should Itreat these as separate
portfolios or as one?
I ask because the 529 money isalmost certain to be used for
(10:01):
education, but the money in thebrokerage has no constraints and
if the 529 turns out to besufficient by itself, then the
money in the brokerage could beused later on for other purposes
.
Mostly Uncle Frank (10:12):
You know like nunchuck skills, bow
hunting skills, computer hackingskills.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (10:20):
The money in the brokerage account
would not be used ahead of mynameless little one going to
college, unless it wasunavoidably necessary.
Voices (10:27):
Necessary.
Is it necessary for me to drinkmy own urine?
Probably not, no, but I do itanyway because it's sterile and
I like the taste.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (10:39):
I would be interested in your
thoughts on my quandary and alsoon the allocation in the
taxable brokerage account.
I did some backtesting on theallocation in the taxable
brokerage account and found thata smaller allocation to UPRO in
a similar portfolio 17% UPRO,17% total market and 64% small
cap value decreased the compoundannual growth rate by two
(11:02):
percentage points withoutdecreasing the various downside
risk indicators much Indicatorslike the max drawdown and
volatility.
Perhaps that is just the resultof the backtest data being a
bit limited.
Man's got to know hislimitations.
In pondering the 25% UPRO, 25%total market, 50% small cap
(11:23):
value allocation, it occurred tome that I would probably rarely
buy the Upro component sincethe market is generally up 7 out
of 10 years and Upro is upalmost triple when it is up.
It makes me think that runningthat allocation would mostly
look like me letting Upro sitaround and juice returns while I
focus on buying up the totalmarket and small cap value
(11:45):
assets each year when I putmoney in as my rebalancing.
Voices (11:49):
Well, you have a gambling problem.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (11:53):
I hope this email wasn't too long,
mary.
Thanks the nameless one.
Voices (11:58):
Mary, mary.
Mostly Uncle Frank (11:59):
I need your huggin'.
Need you hugging?
Now?
Here's a listener who ticks allof the boxes.
Voices (12:11):
Battle speed for Tatum Battle speed Attack speed Attack
speed Grabbing speed.
Attack speed Ramming speedRamming speed.
Mostly Uncle Frank (12:37):
In terms of engagement, generosity and humor
.
What do you mean?
Funny, funny how.
First off, thank you for beinga donor to the Father McKenna
Center, and a very generousdonor at that.
Voices (12:49):
It's gold, jerry gold.
Mostly Uncle Frank (12:51):
As most of you know, we do not have any
sponsors on this podcast, but wedo have a charity we support.
It's called the Father McKennaCenter and it supports hungry
and homeless people inWashington DC.
Full disclosure.
I am on the board of thecharity and I'm the current
treasurer, and we are in themidst of a matching campaign,
which we call the Top of theT-Shirt Campaign, to go with our
(13:13):
Walk for McKenna.
That occurs in September whenwe hand out the t-shirts with
the sponsors on the back, and wewant to be at the top of that.
To learn more about that entirecampaign, you can go back and
listen to episode 426.
But we will continue thiscampaign until the end of this
month and then we will look atall the totals and they are
looking quite impressive.
(13:34):
Our matching donor, matthew63,is putting in his 15k in the
next week, here or so, inaddition to all the money we've
collected from all of the restof you.
Voices (13:45):
Show me the money.
I need to feel you, jerry.
Show me the money, jerry, youbetter yell.
Mostly Uncle Frank (13:56):
Show me the money.
Now, if you donate to theFather McKenna Center, your
prize is to go to the front ofthe email line, as the nameless
one has done here, and that lineis getting pretty long now.
It's over two months long interms of all of the emails we
have stacked up here.
And that line is getting prettylong now.
It's over two months long interms of all of the emails we
have stacked up here.
So it's becoming more and morevaluable as time goes on and the
line gets longer and in fact wehave a couple of donors, or
more than a couple of donors,right behind this one.
(14:19):
But anyway, to donate to theFather McKenna Center, you can
do that one of two ways.
Either go to the donation pageof the Father McKenna website,
which I will link to in the shownotes.
You can donate there by creditcard, check or otherwise,
including via donor-advisedfunds, or you can do it through
our support page atwwwriskpartierradiocom, in which
(14:41):
case you can become one of ourregular patrons on Patreon, and
the link is there to set that upto become a monthly donor.
Either way, you will get to goto the front of the email line.
Now the nameless one gets extrapoints as far as being a donor
is concerned, because thedonation is $5,321.10, which, in
(15:02):
fact, is the first few numbersin the Fibonacci sequence
backwards 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, and 5,which would be followed by 8, 13
, and 21.
As most of you math nerds know,you extend that out far enough.
That sequence mimics the goldenratio, mimics the golden ratio,
(15:24):
and you can also create manyinteresting portfolio
constructions out of theFibonacci sequence.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (15:31):
Oh sure, I think I've improved on
your methods a bit too.
Mostly Uncle Frank (15:35):
Including one that's 100% equities, one
that's 50-50 equities andsomething else like bonds a
60-40 portfolio represented bythe 3 and the 2, a 50-30-40
portfolio represented by the 3and the 2, a 50-30-20 portfolio
and the golden ratio portfolioitself, which is represented by
the numbers 3, 5, 8, 13, and 21.
(15:55):
So extra kudos for your mathnerdery, as well as your very
generous donation.
Voices (16:05):
One hundred billion dollars.
Mostly Uncle Frank (16:09):
Now getting to your questions.
First, congratulations on yourprecious little one, my precious
, who we might call NamelessJunior at this point.
Ha ha, ha, ha, ha ha.
So you're planning on startingsome savings for nameless junior
(16:34):
here, a 529 and another accountthat I assume you're just
working with in your own name atthis point, because it's easier
to do that than fiddling aroundwith UTMAs or things like that.
I would keep these separate.
I think that you can't reallyrebalance a 529 plan.
(16:56):
At least most of them havelimited allocations, and this is
all going to be 100% equitiesanyway.
So to me, the only thing Iwould consider doing is if one
of them grew expansively.
If you're going to use leverage, you might have that happen.
You might end up taking moneyout of the experimental
(17:18):
portfolio and putting more moneyinto the 529 at some point if
you're not already filling thatup enough from your other
resources.
Other than that, I'd justprobably leave that 529 alone in
the S&P 500 index and thenconsider moving that when the
child gets to high school.
If you're going to use that forcollege money, at which point
(17:38):
you probably want to put it inbonds, or mostly bonds, if
you're going to spend it soon.
Now as for what to do with thistaxable brokerage portfolio with
leverage in, it should be veryexciting fortune favors the
brave first, I would not trustthe back tests that are using
upro as a ticker symbol, mostlyjust because of timing issues,
(18:02):
because upro came about around2008 or 2009, so the period that
we have since then has beensuch a great period for the
stock market it's been, I think,the best 15 years in the last
100 or maybe ever that it maynot give a very realistic
portrayal of any portfolio thatincorporates YouPro into it,
(18:24):
that what you would really wantto do is go back in time.
Voices (18:28):
I'm going to go back in time.
Mostly Uncle Frank (18:38):
No, I'm going to go back in time.
Go back in time.
Go back in time.
Use a simulated S&P 500 withleverage in it, which you can do
a test folio and test outvarious formulations through the
bad decades like the early2000s or the 1970s, because UPRO
itself could easily go down 70,80 percent or 90 percent in a
big downturn.
Now you will have a reductionin the volatility of the
(19:02):
portfolio overall if you arecontributing to it regularly,
because under that circumstance,when the portfolio is down,
you're effectively buying moreshares and you benefit from
dollar cost averaging throughany downturn.
So what I would probably do iskind of let it run hot at first,
because the amounts here thatyou're putting in it are so
(19:25):
small.
But once it grows to somethingyou deem substantial, then you
might start putting arebalancing rule on it such that
you essentially harvest some ofthe UPRO and put it into the
other funds whenever it goes upa lot through me by, say, 10% or
(19:55):
some number that you select.
So if it goes from 25% to 35%,you would essentially rebalance
and harvest that money and putit into the other funds.
In theory, your idea here shouldwork pretty well and it is
actually a kind of economistapproved method which, if you're
doing something likeconsumption smoothing, as an
economist would do, it doessuggest that early in life you
(20:16):
should actually take leverage,simply because you have so much
growth potential.
I would just make sure that inthe event the leveraged product
goes to zero, which it could,that is not damaging the overall
survival of the portfolio.
But if you're talking about 25%or less in the leveraged
product, I think you're probablysafe or safe enough in that
(20:38):
regard, since you arecontributing to this portfolio
and not taking money out of it.
When you do get to the pointwhere you would transfer it or
take money out of it, then youwould want to make it more
conservative.
But I think it's a really goodidea and I kind of wish I would
have thought of it or it existedwhen our children were babies,
because Upro did not exist thenand none of these strategies
(21:01):
would have really been viable atthat point, since we didn't
have no fee trading or othermodern conveniences, if you will
.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (21:09):
And that's the way it was, and we
liked it.
Mostly Uncle Frank (21:12):
I am looking forward to your experiment.
Voices (21:16):
It Can't Work it.
Mostly Uncle Frank (21:26):
Hopefully Nameless Jr will not develop too
much of a gambling problem.
Voices (21:51):
Thank, you for your generous contributions, your
generous sense of humor and youremail.
Now check this out If youdivide 13 by 8, you get 1.625.
And if you divide the largernumber by the smaller number,
then these ratios get closer andcloser to about 1.618, known to
many people as the golden ratio, a number which has fascinated
(22:11):
mathematicians, scientists andartists for centuries.
Now I show all this to youbecause, like so much of
mathematics, there's a beautifulside to it that I fear does not
get enough attention in ourschools.
We spend lots of time learningabout calculation, but let's not
forget about application,including perhaps the most
(22:33):
important application of alllearning how to think.
If I could summarize this inone sentence, it would be this
Mathematics is not just solvingfor X, it's also figuring out
why.
Mostly Uncle Frank (22:48):
Now we're going to do something extremely
fun, and the extremely fun thingwe get to do now is our weekly
portfolio reviews and also ourannual rebalancings of our first
four sample portfolios whichare on that schedule.
Wow, it's very nice.
The other portfolios arerebalanced on bands and so they
(23:11):
follow different schedules aslaid out on the portfolios page
at the website, and so we'll gothrough that with each portfolio
as we go.
But looking at the markets forthe year so far, the S&P 500,
represented VOO, is up 7.78% forthe year.
The NASDAQ 100, represented byQQQ, is up 10.07% for the year.
(23:36):
Small cap value, represented bythe fund VIOV, continues to lag
but does show itsdiversification from the other
ones.
It is down 4.99% for the yearso far.
Gold continues to shine and isthe best performer for the year
by quite a large margin.
Voices (23:55):
I love gold.
Mostly Uncle Fra (23:59):
Representative fund GLDM, is up 27.54% for the
year.
Long-term treasury bonds,represented by the fund VGLT,
are up 0.45% for the year so far.
Reits, represented by the fundREET, are up 4.66% for the year
so far.
Commodities, represented by thefund PDBC, are up 3.54% for the
(24:21):
year so far and preferredshares, represented by the fund
PFFV, are up 1.03% for the yearso far.
And finally, managed futureshave been recovering.
Our representative fund DBMF isnow down only 0.10% for the
year so far, after having beendown several percent earlier on,
(24:43):
but it's caught some trendsrecently and actually has done
quite well just this month.
Now turning to the sampleportfolios.
The first one is the AllSeasons.
This is a reference portfoliowe really just keep around to
compare to others, because thiswas the original Risk Parity
style portfolio, or simplifiedRisk Parity style portfolio that
(25:05):
Ray Dalio gave to Tony Robbinsfor Money Master the Game, which
was published now over 10 yearsago, and so it's very
conservative and not somethingyou would probably want to hold.
It is 30% in a total stockmarket fund VTI, 40% in a
long-term treasury bond fund,vglt, 15% in an intermediate
(25:29):
treasury bond fund VGIT, and theremaining 15% is divided into
GLDM, a gold fund and PDBC, acommodities fund, 7.5% each.
In those it is down to 0.20%for the month of July.
So far it's up 5.67% year-todate and is up 14.71% since
(25:52):
inception in July 2020.
We are distributing out of itat a 4% annualized rate, which
is now actually mostly coveredsimply by the distributions that
come out of all of these bonds,which are paying close to 5% in
the circumstance of thelong-term treasury bonds.
And so now, talking about therebalancing Now we do this
(26:12):
annually for these portfoliosand that's kind of a standard
way of rebalancing a portfolio.
The purpose of rebalancing aportfolio is to get it back to
its original allocations and italso enforces a discipline where
you are selling high for thebest performers and buying low
for the worst performers eachyear.
(26:33):
So if we go down and look atthe percentages which you can
see on the website, on theFidelity printout, we see that
the stock fund VTI is at 32.62%right now and the stated
allocation is 30%, or the targetallocation, if you will, and so
(26:56):
we'll be selling from that.
It means we'll be selling $271to get it back down to its 30%
allocation.
The other thing that has donequite well last year and will be
a theme of these rebalancingsis gold, which has been the best
performer in the past year.
It is currently at 9.75% ofthis portfolio and it should be
(27:16):
7.5% to target it.
So we end up selling $221 outof the gold to get it back down
to 7.5%.
And the other components we areactually adding money to.
So the commodities we'll beadding $32 to it to get it back
up to 7.5%.
It's at 7.12% now.
(27:38):
We'll be adding $30 to theIntermediate Treasury Bond Fund,
vgit, to get it from 14.5% backup to 15%.
And then we'll be adding mostlyto the long-term treasury bond
holding, vglt.
We'll be adding $395 out ofthat to get it back from 35.6%
(28:02):
back up to 40%, and we've set it.
So we will continue to havesome cash in the portfolio for
its next distribution.
All of this will be detailed onthe website, but you'll
actually see the results not inthis week's posting but in the
next week's posting, because wewill do these rebalancings on
Monday.
(28:22):
All right, our next portfolio,one of what we would call our
bread and butter portfolio,something that somebody might
actually hold in retirement.
This is the golden butterfly.
It was invented by Tyler overat Portfolio Charts.
It has stocks, bonds and goldin it.
Basically, the stocks are onewing, the bonds are another wing
(28:43):
and the head of the portfoliois the gold.
Tyler has some nice write-upsof this portfolio and the one we
just did, the all seasons andthe golden ratio that I will
link to in the show notes.
So this is a evenly allocatedportfolio where the target
allocation is 20% for each ofthe components and, looking at
(29:04):
what they are right now, thegold is up at 23.94%.
Even though we've been sellinggold all year out of this
portfolio, it is still the bestperformer and we'll be selling
$449 out of it to put into theother components.
The next best component is VTI,which is the total stock market
fund, and that is at 21.4%right now 21.42.
(29:29):
So we'll be selling $169 worthof that to put into the other
components.
The other components are allbelow 20% right now.
Shy, the short-term bond fund,is at 18.91%, so we'll be adding
$112 to that.
The long-term treasury bondfund, vt, is at 17.13 percent,
(29:52):
and so we'll be adding $310 tothat to true it up to 20 percent
.
And then the small cap valuefund, viov, is currently at
18.08 percent and we'll beadding $204 to that to true that
up to 20%, and that'll alsoleave some money left over for
our next distribution.
(30:12):
There's currently $58 sittingthere from dividends and
interest payments.
I did forget to mention what theperformance of this portfolio
is so far.
It is up 0.67% month to date.
It's up 6.89% year to date andup 43.16% since inception in
July 2020.
(30:32):
This portfolio is on theconservative side for portfolios
with high safe withdrawal rates, but that also assists its
stability greatly.
So if you really want to sleepwell at night, this may be the
portfolio for you, or somethingsimilar.
Well, you haven't got the knackof being idly rich.
You see, you should do like mejust snooze and dream, dream and
(30:54):
snooze.
The pleasures are unlimited.
It's easy to make this one moreaggressive simply by cutting
back on the short-term bondallocation to SHY and then
adding that to another riskcomponent, such as the two stock
funds, or even an additionalstock fund or refund, something
like that.
So it's a very good baseportfolio to work from if you
(31:18):
are trying to constructsomething but want to make sure
that it's on the conservativeside.
Moving to our next homegrowngolden ratio portfolio, this one
is 42% in stocks and that's intwo funds.
(31:38):
We have 21% in VUG.
It's a large cap growth fundand 21% in VIOV, which is a
small cap value fund, which is asmall cap value fund.
Then we have 26% in long-termtreasury bonds in VGLT, 16% in
(32:02):
gold that's in GLDM 10% in amanaged futures fund, dbmf and
in this version of the goldenratio, we are including 6% in
cash in a money market fund, andthe reason we do that is to
illustrate a kind of portfoliothat represents what you would
call the original bucketstrategy, where you have a cash
allocation that you take fromall year long in terms of
distributions and you nevertouch anything else in the
(32:23):
portfolio until rebalancing day,and so that's the day we are
here and we are on right now.
For the other portfolios, theother sample portfolios, we are
actually looking at it everymonth and selling things that
are high to the extent we needcash for distributions, and you
can adopt this kind ofwithdrawal strategy with
virtually any portfolio.
(32:43):
You just need to be able toassess how much cash you'll
actually need for the next year.
In this case, we have a 6%allocation.
We're basically taking 5% outof that, but that does not
include all the dividends thatend up getting paid into it over
the course of the year, whichend up being between 2% and 3%
of the portfolio anyway.
So, even though we've beentaking cash out of the money
(33:05):
market all year long, it isstill at 2.92% of the portfolio
right now.
We will be truing that back upto 6% by adding $330 to it.
From the other components.
Now the component we areselling the most from this year
is gold, of course, gldm.
It is currently at 21.31% ofthe portfolio.
(33:29):
It is currently at 21.31% ofthe portfolio.
The target is 16%.
So we're going to be selling$569 out of that and then
redistributing that to the othercomponents in the portfolio,
mostly going into the cash.
The other winner since the lastrebalancing has been the large
cap growth fund, vug.
That is currently at 23.73%.
(33:51):
The target is 21%.
So we'll be selling $292 fromthat to true that up Now.
As for the other components,the managed futures DBMF is
slightly down.
It is at 9.25% of the portfolioright now.
We'll need to add $81 to thatto true it back up to 10%.
(34:12):
The small cap value fund, viov,is also slightly underwater.
It's at 19.66% right now.
The target is 21%.
So we'll be adding $143 to thatto true that back up to 21%.
And then the laggard this pastyear has been VGLT, the
(34:32):
long-term treasury bond fund.
It is currently at 23.14%.
The target is 26%, so we needto add $307 to that to true that
one back up.
These bond funds always looklike they have performed worse
than they actually have, becauseyou have to remember that all
of their income is paid out incash over the course of the year
(34:54):
and ends up in the money marketfund, so its true performance
over the past year has beenclose to flat or slightly up if
you included all of the incomethat's been paid out of it.
In any event, we'll be trued upand ready to go for another
year taking the distributionsout of the cash money market
fund.
I forgot to mention itsperformance so far.
(35:15):
It's up 0.72% month-to-date,it's up 6.1% year-to-date and up
37.88% since inception in July2020.
And with all of these, you canread about it at the website as
well.
Now turning to our next one, theone that's going to require the
most work.
This is the Risk ParityUltimate Portfolio, and really
(35:37):
the purpose of this is to be akitchen sink where we put lots
of little pieces of all sorts ofthings, mostly just to see how
it all does.
I wouldn't expect anyone wouldwant a portfolio with this many
components in it, so this endsup being more of kind of a
testing ground for us thansomething that I would expect
most people would be holding.
(35:57):
It currently has 14 funds in itin two accounts.
Thankfully, we're going to beable to consolidate it down to
one account now that we're ableto buy cryptocurrencies in ETF
form, because the whole reasonwe have a separate account is to
account for the two cryptoassets, which are 1% each in
Bitcoin and in Ether.
(36:17):
I think we're going to closethat account, bring all that
money over and just put it inone Bitcoin fund, because, as
time goes on, it seems to belooking like Bitcoin itself has
a better diversificationproperty than a lot of these
other cryptocurrencies that seemto just follow other tech funds
.
So there's $213 worth ofBitcoin and Ether in that
(36:41):
account right now.
When we bring it over, we'll bebuying IBIT, the iShares
Bitcoin fund, and we'll bebuying $193 worth of that.
So it just ends up we'reselling $20 worth of that.
The other consolidation I thinkwe're going to do has to do with
the two treasury bond funds.
Right now, we have 15% in VGLTand 5% in TMF, the levered
(37:05):
treasury bond fund.
That equals 20% overall.
We can consolidate that and getthe same kind of effect on the
portfolio by consolidating thatinto a strips fund.
So we're going to use GOVZ forthat and that's going to end up
being 20% of the portfolio.
So we'll sell those other twocomponents at about $300 from
(37:28):
other sales in the portfolio andend up with $1,930 worth of
GOVZ when all that is said anddone.
Now, going through the rest ofthese components which we aren't
changing in terms of what fundswe're using, first one is VUG.
That is a Vanguard large capgrowth fund.
The target for that is 10%.
(37:49):
It's currently at 11.91%.
So we'll be selling $165 out ofthat one.
In the other winner categorieswe have USMV.
That's a low volatility fund.
There's a 5% allocation to that.
It's currently at 5.34.
We'll be selling $24 out ofthat to true that up.
(38:10):
We have UPRO 5% in that.
That's in a levered S&P 500fund, currently at 6.04%.
So we'll be selling $91 fromthat to true that one up to 5%.
We have a Chinese shares fund,kba.
That also had a good year lastyear, currently at 5.54% of the
(38:31):
portfolio.
We'll be selling $43 out ofthat to true that up to 5%.
And of course, the big winnerin this portfolio was also gold
GLDM.
It is currently at 19.03% ofthe portfolio.
The target is 15%.
So we'll be selling $359 worthof that to true that up in this
(38:51):
portfolio.
And then going to the other onesthat we need to add something
to.
First one is VIOV.
That's a small cap value fundfrom Vanguard.
It is currently at 14.12%.
The target is 15%, so we'll beadding $107 to that one.
Next one is REET, which is aREIT fund.
(39:11):
The target for that is 5% ofthe portfolio.
It's currently at 4.96, sowe'll add $9 to that to chew
that one up.
We have PFFV, a preferred sharesfund.
It's currently at 4.65% of theportfolio.
We'll need to add $41 to thatto make it up to its 5% target
allocation.
(39:31):
Up to its 5% target allocation.
Dbmf is the next one.
That is a managed futures fund,currently at 8.59% of the
portfolio.
We'll need to add $115 to thatto true that one up.
And then the last one is a longshort fund called BTAL, which
essentially goes long valuestocks and short growth stocks.
(39:53):
It is currently at 2.53% of theportfolio.
The target allocation for thatis 3%, so we'll be adding $49 to
that to true that up and all ofthat will be reported at the
(40:29):
website, since I know listeningto it is probably very confusing
if it and looking at how theportfolio performed so far this
year.
It's up 0.7% month-to-date.
It's up 5.91% year-to-date andup 26.31% since inception in
July 2020.
I'm looking forward to havingit all back in one account again
(40:51):
, which will make things a loteasier for me All.
Right.
Now let's move to theportfolios we're not rebalancing
, which are all theseexperimental portfolios that
have levered funds in them anddo very strange things at
strange times.
So don't try these at home, butthey're interesting experiments
to look at.
Voices (41:10):
Tony Stark was able to build this in a cave with a box
of scraps.
Mostly Uncle Frank (41:17):
So the first one is the accelerated
permanent portfolio.
This one's 27.5% in a leveredbond fund TMF, 25% in UPRO
that's a levered S&P 500 fund,25% in PFFV, a preferred shares
fund, and 22.5% in gold and GLDM.
It's down 0.9% month to date,it's up 6% year to date and up
(41:42):
7.09% since inception in July2020.
Moving to our next one, theaggressive 50-50.
This is half stocks and halfbonds.
This is our most levered andleast diversified of these
portfolios and also the worstperformer.
It is one-third in a leveredstock fund, upro, one-third in a
levered bond fund TMF, and theremaining third in PFFV, a
(42:05):
preferred shares fund, and VGIT,an intermediate treasury bond
fund, and those serve as ballastin this portfolio.
It's down 1.37% month-to-date.
It's up 0.63% year-to-date anddown 11.37% since inception in
July 2020.
It has not been aided by all ofits volatility.
(42:25):
All right, moving to thelevered golden ratio, it's our
next one that's a year youngerthan the other ones.
So this one is 35% in acomposite fund, ntsx, which is
the S&P 500 and treasury bonds,levered up 1.5 to 1.
It's got 15% in AVDV, which isan international small cap value
(42:50):
fund.
20% in gold, gldm.
10% in a managed futures fund,kmlm.
10% in TMF, a levered bond fund, and the remaining 10% in two
leveraged funds, udow and UTSL,which follow the Dow and a
utilities index.
(43:11):
Respectively, it's up 0.32%month-to-date.
It's up 9.64% year-to-date.
It's doing the best of allthese portfolios this year so
far, but it's only up 4.79%since inception in July 2021,
which was a very bad time tostart withdrawing from a
portfolio.
(43:31):
And now moving to our last one,the Optra portfolio.
One portfolio to rule them all.
This one's only a year old.
This is a return stackedportfolio which takes its ideas
from Corey Hofstein and thepeople over at Resolve Asset
Management.
It is 16% in a leveraged stockfund, upro.
(43:53):
24% in AVGV, which is aworldwide value fund.
It's a fund of funds fromAvantis.
24% in GOVZ, which is atreasury strips fund, and the
remaining 36% is divided into18% each in gold and managed
futures.
That's GLDM and DVMF.
(44:13):
It's up 0.28% month-to-date.
It's up 7.7% year-to-date andup 10.83% since inception in
July 2024.
And that concludes our weeklyportfolio reviews and our annual
rebalancings for the first fourportfolios.
Our annual rebalancings for thefirst four portfolios.
(44:42):
As I mentioned, all of that isgoing to be recorded on the
website and will be transferredover to the revamped website
when we get there.
But now I see our signal isbeginning to fade.
If you have comments orquestions for me, please send
them to frank atriskparityradarcom.
That email is frank atriskparityradarcom.
Or you can go to the websitewwwriskparityradarcom.
(45:03):
Put your message into thecontact form and I'll get it all
that way.
If you haven't had a chance todo it, please go to your
favorite podcast provider andlike subscribe.
Give me some stars, a follow, areview.
That would be great.
Okay, thank you once again fortuning in.
This is Frank Vasquez with RiskParty Radio Signing off.
Voices (45:30):
So I'll catch you on the rebound, your magnitude, until
(45:58):
next week.
Nanu Nanu.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (46:07):
The Risk Parody Radio Show is
hosted by Frank Vasquez.
The content provided is forentertainment and informational
purposes only and does notconstitute financial, investment
tax or legal advice.
Thank you.
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds,
adored by little statesmen andphilosophers and divines.
If a man does not keep pacewith his companions, perhaps it
is because he hears a differentdrummer, a different drummer.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (00:19):
And now, coming to you from dead
center on your dial, welcome toRisk Parity Radio, where we
explore alternatives and assetallocations for the
do-it-yourself investor,broadcasting to you now from the
comfort of his easy chair.
Here is your host, frankVasquez.
Mostly Uncle Frank (00:37):
Thank you, Mary, and welcome to Risk Parity
Radio.
If you are new here and wonderwhat we are talking about, you
may wish to go back and listento some of the foundational
episodes for this program.
Voices (00:50):
Yeah, baby, yeah.
Mostly Uncle Frank (00:52):
And the basic foundational episodes are
episodes 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9.
Some of our listeners,including Karen and Chris, have
identified additional episodesthat you may consider
foundational, and those areepisodes 12, 14, 16, 19, 21, 56,
(01:13):
82, and 184.
Whoa, and you probably shouldcheck those out too, because we
have the finest podcast audienceavailable.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (01:26):
Top drawer, really top drawer.
Mostly Uncle Frank (01:31):
Along with a host named after a hot dog.
Voices (01:34):
Lighten up Francis.
Mostly Uncle Frank (01:37):
But now onward, episode 439.
Today on Risk Parity Radio, weare at the end of year.
Five Inconceivable 439 episodesin five seasons, gosh, and what
we always do at the end of theyear is rebalancing our first
(02:00):
four sample portfolios.
Voices (02:03):
Surely you can't be serious.
Mostly Uncle Frank (02:04):
I am serious and don't call me Shirley.
And so we'll be doing thattoday along with doing our
weekly portfolio reviews, and wedo have time for one email as
well.
Voices (02:15):
I'm intrigued by this how you say Emails.
Mostly Uncle Frank (02:19):
But before we get to that, just a couple
items of note here.
Before we get to that, just acouple items of note here.
First, I recently appeared onnot one but two episodes, two
consecutive episodes of theBiggerPockets Money podcast with
Scott and Mindy.
Mostly Mary And Some Voic (02:34):
Money .
Mostly Uncle Frank (02:42):
And in the first one we talked about
principles of risk, parity styleportfolio construction and
designing portfolios for highersafe withdrawal rates, and also
why one might want to do thatand how that differed from
approaches that were designedfor accumulation.
And in the second one, I guideMindy into constructing a risk
parity style portfolio Rexquando.
We use the buddy system no moreflying solo and we used a
(03:04):
variation of the golden ratiofor that.
So they're going to have asample portfolio over there now
and I'm not sure how they'regoing to run it, but we put
$10,000 in it and I thinkthey're going to be taking out
5% annualized on a monthly basis, and so we'll be working with
them to show them how that'sdone.
(03:25):
You need somebody watching yourback at all times, so stay
tuned for more antics andhijinks over at
BiggerPocketsMoney.
Voices (03:36):
Did you know something, Orson?
I'd like to thank you forletting me see what Mindy's life
would be like without me.
Mostly Uncle Frank (03:40):
You know, Mork, I think you're beginning
to grow.
Mostly Mary And Some Voice (03:44):
Well sir.
Voices (03:45):
I don't know how much value I have in this universe,
but I do know that I made a fewpeople happier than they would
have been without me.
Mostly Uncle Frank (03:54):
And as long as I know that I'm as rich as I
ever need to be.
We are also continuing tocollect comments on the new demo
website that Luke from Quebecis helping me with.
Voices (04:04):
We have top men working on it right now.
Who Top?
Mostly Uncle Frank (04:13):
men.
Actually he's doing all thework and I'm just engaged in my
usual nonsensical ravings.
It's not that I'm lazy, it'sthat I just don't care.
But to find that, go to thewebpage any webpage at
wwwriskparityradarcom.
If you go to the top and on theright, there's a little button
(04:36):
there for alt site and that willtake you to a demo of the
alternative site and we arecollecting comments on that
until the end of this month andthen Luke and I will sit down
and figure out exactly whatthat's going to look like.
But it should be good.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (04:53):
The best, Jerry the best.
Mostly Uncle Frank (04:55):
Or at least a lot better than what we have
right now.
Voices (04:58):
Just come up.
Mostly Uncle Frank (04:59):
Not that there's a very high bar there.
Voices (05:02):
Just come up.
Mostly Uncle Frank (05:03):
So if you have comments on that, please
send them to the emailfrankatriskparodyradiocom.
The email isfrankatriskparodyradiocom and we
will collect all those commentsand go through them in August.
And thirdly or last off inthese announcements, if you are
new here and have come over fromBigger Pock pockets or
(05:24):
elsewhere, I have a feelingwe're not in Kansas anymore.
Welcome to this podcast.
Voices (05:30):
You're not going to amount to jack squats.
Mostly Uncle Frank (05:35):
You will find that it sounds a lot
different than a lot of podcastsyou usually listen to.
Voices (05:39):
You are talking about the nonsensical ravings of a
lunatic mind.
Mostly Uncle Frank (05:45):
Mostly because it's a retirement hobby
for me, and so I am not tryingto build a giant audience or
attract sponsors or any of theother things that somebody who
is trying to be a professionalpodcaster might be doing, which
gives me a lot of license notonly to talk about interesting
topics such as portfolioconstruction, if you find that
(06:07):
interesting, but I'm also goingto goof off.
Mostly Mary And Some Voic (06:10):
Don't be saucy with me, Bernays.
Mostly Uncle Frank (06:13):
And act silly.
Voices (06:18):
All right, pinhead.
Your time is up.
Who you calling Pinhead?
Mostly Uncle Frank (06:21):
Which most of my listeners come to
appreciate, but still there's afew that do not appreciate that.
Voices (06:27):
You're gonna end up eating a steady diet of
government cheese and living ina van down by the river.
Mostly Uncle Frank (06:36):
But I accept that that may reduce the
quantity of my audience.
Voices (06:40):
You know what Napoleon?
Mostly Uncle Frank (06:42):
You can leave.
You know what, napoleon, youcan leave, although I do believe
it contributes to the improvedquality of my audience, at least
from my perspective.
Voices (06:54):
Oh behave.
Mostly Mary And Some Voice (06:57):
Yeah , yeah, baby yeah.
Mostly Uncle Frank (06:59):
But anyway, if you're new here, I'm glad
you're here and I hope you getat least a little something out
of this.
Forget about it.
Voices (07:09):
But now on with the show .
Here I go once again with theemail.
Mostly Uncle Frank (07:13):
And, as I mentioned, we're just going to
have one email today, and so,first off, second off, last off,
first, second and third off, wehave an email from
TheNamelessOne.
Voices (07:28):
I have no name.
Mostly Mary And Some Voice (07:31):
Well , that right there may be the
reason you've had difficultyfinding gainful employment.
Mostly Uncle Frank (07:36):
And TheNamelessOne writes Hi Frank.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (07:39):
I made a contribution to the
Father McKenna Center via mydonor advised fund.
Voices (07:44):
Yeah, baby, yeah.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (07:46):
I wasn't sure how to identify it
as a contribution for the Top ofthe T-Shirt campaign, so I just
did my best with what the formoffered.
Hopefully it came acrosswithout issue.
Voices (07:56):
Yes.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (07:57):
I donated anonymously, but you can
identify the contribution byits amount $5,321.10, a sequence
of numbers I expect you'llrecognize.
I am a few episodes behind, butI am pleased to see that the
nonsensical ravings have almostreturned to normal levels, since
(08:18):
one of your other listenersmade a generous $15,000 donation
.
Kudos to that kind soul.
Mostly Uncle Frank (08:25):
So shines a good deed in a weary world.
Mostly Mary And Some Voic (08:30):
There is no shortage of nonsense in
the world, but yours is a rarevintage of high quality.
Mary, congratulations on.
Of all the kings, god save theKing.
(08:55):
My nameless partner and Iproduced a nameless little one.
While in utero, my namelesslittle one contacted me and
insisted that I begin saving fortheir college education, dear
eight pound six ounce newborninfant Jesus don't even know a
word yet just a little infant,so cuddly but still omnipotent.
(09:18):
They instructed me to use anallocation of 25% UPRO three
times S&P 500 fund, 25% FZROXFidelity Total Market Index fund
, 50% FISVX Fidelity Small CapValue Index fund.
I complied, investing thoseETFs via a taxable brokerage
(09:40):
account, but seeing an earlyonset gambling problem, I hedge
the bet by also saving into a529 plan for them.
The 529 plan money is investedin an S&P 500 index.
My quandary is this should Itreat these as separate
portfolios or as one?
I ask because the 529 money isalmost certain to be used for
(10:01):
education, but the money in thebrokerage has no constraints and
if the 529 turns out to besufficient by itself, then the
money in the brokerage could beused later on for other purposes
.
Mostly Uncle Frank (10:12):
You know like nunchuck skills, bow
hunting skills, computer hackingskills.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (10:20):
The money in the brokerage account
would not be used ahead of mynameless little one going to
college, unless it wasunavoidably necessary.
Voices (10:27):
Necessary.
Is it necessary for me to drinkmy own urine?
Probably not, no, but I do itanyway because it's sterile and
I like the taste.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (10:39):
I would be interested in your
thoughts on my quandary and alsoon the allocation in the
taxable brokerage account.
I did some backtesting on theallocation in the taxable
brokerage account and found thata smaller allocation to UPRO in
a similar portfolio 17% UPRO,17% total market and 64% small
cap value decreased the compoundannual growth rate by two
(11:02):
percentage points withoutdecreasing the various downside
risk indicators much Indicatorslike the max drawdown and
volatility.
Perhaps that is just the resultof the backtest data being a
bit limited.
Man's got to know hislimitations.
In pondering the 25% UPRO, 25%total market, 50% small cap
(11:23):
value allocation, it occurred tome that I would probably rarely
buy the Upro component sincethe market is generally up 7 out
of 10 years and Upro is upalmost triple when it is up.
It makes me think that runningthat allocation would mostly
look like me letting Upro sitaround and juice returns while I
focus on buying up the totalmarket and small cap value
(11:45):
assets each year when I putmoney in as my rebalancing.
Voices (11:49):
Well, you have a gambling problem.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (11:53):
I hope this email wasn't too long,
mary.
Thanks the nameless one.
Voices (11:58):
Mary, mary.
Mostly Uncle Frank (11:59):
I need your huggin'.
Need you hugging?
Now?
Here's a listener who ticks allof the boxes.
Voices (12:11):
Battle speed for Tatum Battle speed Attack speed Attack
speed Grabbing speed.
Attack speed Ramming speedRamming speed.
Mostly Uncle Frank (12:37):
In terms of engagement, generosity and humor
.
What do you mean?
Funny, funny how.
First off, thank you for beinga donor to the Father McKenna
Center, and a very generousdonor at that.
Voices (12:49):
It's gold, jerry gold.
Mostly Uncle Frank (12:51):
As most of you know, we do not have any
sponsors on this podcast, but wedo have a charity we support.
It's called the Father McKennaCenter and it supports hungry
and homeless people inWashington DC.
Full disclosure.
I am on the board of thecharity and I'm the current
treasurer, and we are in themidst of a matching campaign,
which we call the Top of theT-Shirt Campaign, to go with our
(13:13):
Walk for McKenna.
That occurs in September whenwe hand out the t-shirts with
the sponsors on the back, and wewant to be at the top of that.
To learn more about that entirecampaign, you can go back and
listen to episode 426.
But we will continue thiscampaign until the end of this
month and then we will look atall the totals and they are
looking quite impressive.
(13:34):
Our matching donor, matthew63,is putting in his 15k in the
next week, here or so, inaddition to all the money we've
collected from all of the restof you.
Voices (13:45):
Show me the money.
I need to feel you, jerry.
Show me the money, jerry, youbetter yell.
Mostly Uncle Frank (13:56):
Show me the money.
Now, if you donate to theFather McKenna Center, your
prize is to go to the front ofthe email line, as the nameless
one has done here, and that lineis getting pretty long now.
It's over two months long interms of all of the emails we
have stacked up here.
And that line is getting prettylong now.
It's over two months long interms of all of the emails we
have stacked up here.
So it's becoming more and morevaluable as time goes on and the
line gets longer and in fact wehave a couple of donors, or
more than a couple of donors,right behind this one.
(14:19):
But anyway, to donate to theFather McKenna Center, you can
do that one of two ways.
Either go to the donation pageof the Father McKenna website,
which I will link to in the shownotes.
You can donate there by creditcard, check or otherwise,
including via donor-advisedfunds, or you can do it through
our support page atwwwriskpartierradiocom, in which
(14:41):
case you can become one of ourregular patrons on Patreon, and
the link is there to set that upto become a monthly donor.
Either way, you will get to goto the front of the email line.
Now the nameless one gets extrapoints as far as being a donor
is concerned, because thedonation is $5,321.10, which, in
(15:02):
fact, is the first few numbersin the Fibonacci sequence
backwards 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, and 5,which would be followed by 8, 13
, and 21.
As most of you math nerds know,you extend that out far enough.
That sequence mimics the goldenratio, mimics the golden ratio,
(15:24):
and you can also create manyinteresting portfolio
constructions out of theFibonacci sequence.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (15:31):
Oh sure, I think I've improved on
your methods a bit too.
Mostly Uncle Frank (15:35):
Including one that's 100% equities, one
that's 50-50 equities andsomething else like bonds a
60-40 portfolio represented bythe 3 and the 2, a 50-30-40
portfolio represented by the 3and the 2, a 50-30-20 portfolio
and the golden ratio portfolioitself, which is represented by
the numbers 3, 5, 8, 13, and 21.
(15:55):
So extra kudos for your mathnerdery, as well as your very
generous donation.
Voices (16:05):
One hundred billion dollars.
Mostly Uncle Frank (16:09):
Now getting to your questions.
First, congratulations on yourprecious little one, my precious
, who we might call NamelessJunior at this point.
Ha ha, ha, ha, ha ha.
So you're planning on startingsome savings for nameless junior
(16:34):
here, a 529 and another accountthat I assume you're just
working with in your own name atthis point, because it's easier
to do that than fiddling aroundwith UTMAs or things like that.
I would keep these separate.
I think that you can't reallyrebalance a 529 plan.
(16:56):
At least most of them havelimited allocations, and this is
all going to be 100% equitiesanyway.
So to me, the only thing Iwould consider doing is if one
of them grew expansively.
If you're going to use leverage, you might have that happen.
You might end up taking moneyout of the experimental
(17:18):
portfolio and putting more moneyinto the 529 at some point if
you're not already filling thatup enough from your other
resources.
Other than that, I'd justprobably leave that 529 alone in
the S&P 500 index and thenconsider moving that when the
child gets to high school.
If you're going to use that forcollege money, at which point
(17:38):
you probably want to put it inbonds, or mostly bonds, if
you're going to spend it soon.
Now as for what to do with thistaxable brokerage portfolio with
leverage in, it should be veryexciting fortune favors the
brave first, I would not trustthe back tests that are using
upro as a ticker symbol, mostlyjust because of timing issues,
(18:02):
because upro came about around2008 or 2009, so the period that
we have since then has beensuch a great period for the
stock market it's been, I think,the best 15 years in the last
100 or maybe ever that it maynot give a very realistic
portrayal of any portfolio thatincorporates YouPro into it,
(18:24):
that what you would really wantto do is go back in time.
Voices (18:28):
I'm going to go back in time.
Mostly Uncle Frank (18:38):
No, I'm going to go back in time.
Go back in time.
Go back in time.
Use a simulated S&P 500 withleverage in it, which you can do
a test folio and test outvarious formulations through the
bad decades like the early2000s or the 1970s, because UPRO
itself could easily go down 70,80 percent or 90 percent in a
big downturn.
Now you will have a reductionin the volatility of the
(19:02):
portfolio overall if you arecontributing to it regularly,
because under that circumstance,when the portfolio is down,
you're effectively buying moreshares and you benefit from
dollar cost averaging throughany downturn.
So what I would probably do iskind of let it run hot at first,
because the amounts here thatyou're putting in it are so
(19:25):
small.
But once it grows to somethingyou deem substantial, then you
might start putting arebalancing rule on it such that
you essentially harvest some ofthe UPRO and put it into the
other funds whenever it goes upa lot through me by, say, 10% or
(19:55):
some number that you select.
So if it goes from 25% to 35%,you would essentially rebalance
and harvest that money and putit into the other funds.
In theory, your idea here shouldwork pretty well and it is
actually a kind of economistapproved method which, if you're
doing something likeconsumption smoothing, as an
economist would do, it doessuggest that early in life you
(20:16):
should actually take leverage,simply because you have so much
growth potential.
I would just make sure that inthe event the leveraged product
goes to zero, which it could,that is not damaging the overall
survival of the portfolio.
But if you're talking about 25%or less in the leveraged
product, I think you're probablysafe or safe enough in that
(20:38):
regard, since you arecontributing to this portfolio
and not taking money out of it.
When you do get to the pointwhere you would transfer it or
take money out of it, then youwould want to make it more
conservative.
But I think it's a really goodidea and I kind of wish I would
have thought of it or it existedwhen our children were babies,
because Upro did not exist thenand none of these strategies
(21:01):
would have really been viable atthat point, since we didn't
have no fee trading or othermodern conveniences, if you will
.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (21:09):
And that's the way it was, and we
liked it.
Mostly Uncle Frank (21:12):
I am looking forward to your experiment.
Voices (21:16):
It Can't Work it.
Mostly Uncle Frank (21:26):
Hopefully Nameless Jr will not develop too
much of a gambling problem.
Voices (21:51):
Thank, you for your generous contributions, your
generous sense of humor and youremail.
Now check this out If youdivide 13 by 8, you get 1.625.
And if you divide the largernumber by the smaller number,
then these ratios get closer andcloser to about 1.618, known to
many people as the golden ratio, a number which has fascinated
(22:11):
mathematicians, scientists andartists for centuries.
Now I show all this to youbecause, like so much of
mathematics, there's a beautifulside to it that I fear does not
get enough attention in ourschools.
We spend lots of time learningabout calculation, but let's not
forget about application,including perhaps the most
(22:33):
important application of alllearning how to think.
If I could summarize this inone sentence, it would be this
Mathematics is not just solvingfor X, it's also figuring out
why.
Mostly Uncle Frank (22:48):
Now we're going to do something extremely
fun, and the extremely fun thingwe get to do now is our weekly
portfolio reviews and also ourannual rebalancings of our first
four sample portfolios whichare on that schedule.
Wow, it's very nice.
The other portfolios arerebalanced on bands and so they
(23:11):
follow different schedules aslaid out on the portfolios page
at the website, and so we'll gothrough that with each portfolio
as we go.
But looking at the markets forthe year so far, the S&P 500,
represented VOO, is up 7.78% forthe year.
The NASDAQ 100, represented byQQQ, is up 10.07% for the year.
(23:36):
Small cap value, represented bythe fund VIOV, continues to lag
but does show itsdiversification from the other
ones.
It is down 4.99% for the yearso far.
Gold continues to shine and isthe best performer for the year
by quite a large margin.
Voices (23:55):
I love gold.
Mostly Uncle Fra (23:59):
Representative fund GLDM, is up 27.54% for the
year.
Long-term treasury bonds,represented by the fund VGLT,
are up 0.45% for the year so far.
Reits, represented by the fundREET, are up 4.66% for the year
so far.
Commodities, represented by thefund PDBC, are up 3.54% for the
(24:21):
year so far and preferredshares, represented by the fund
PFFV, are up 1.03% for the yearso far.
And finally, managed futureshave been recovering.
Our representative fund DBMF isnow down only 0.10% for the
year so far, after having beendown several percent earlier on,
(24:43):
but it's caught some trendsrecently and actually has done
quite well just this month.
Now turning to the sampleportfolios.
The first one is the AllSeasons.
This is a reference portfoliowe really just keep around to
compare to others, because thiswas the original Risk Parity
style portfolio, or simplifiedRisk Parity style portfolio that
(25:05):
Ray Dalio gave to Tony Robbinsfor Money Master the Game, which
was published now over 10 yearsago, and so it's very
conservative and not somethingyou would probably want to hold.
It is 30% in a total stockmarket fund VTI, 40% in a
long-term treasury bond fund,vglt, 15% in an intermediate
(25:29):
treasury bond fund VGIT, and theremaining 15% is divided into
GLDM, a gold fund and PDBC, acommodities fund, 7.5% each.
In those it is down to 0.20%for the month of July.
So far it's up 5.67% year-todate and is up 14.71% since
(25:52):
inception in July 2020.
We are distributing out of itat a 4% annualized rate, which
is now actually mostly coveredsimply by the distributions that
come out of all of these bonds,which are paying close to 5% in
the circumstance of thelong-term treasury bonds.
And so now, talking about therebalancing Now we do this
(26:12):
annually for these portfoliosand that's kind of a standard
way of rebalancing a portfolio.
The purpose of rebalancing aportfolio is to get it back to
its original allocations and italso enforces a discipline where
you are selling high for thebest performers and buying low
for the worst performers eachyear.
(26:33):
So if we go down and look atthe percentages which you can
see on the website, on theFidelity printout, we see that
the stock fund VTI is at 32.62%right now and the stated
allocation is 30%, or the targetallocation, if you will, and so
(26:56):
we'll be selling from that.
It means we'll be selling $271to get it back down to its 30%
allocation.
The other thing that has donequite well last year and will be
a theme of these rebalancingsis gold, which has been the best
performer in the past year.
It is currently at 9.75% ofthis portfolio and it should be
(27:16):
7.5% to target it.
So we end up selling $221 outof the gold to get it back down
to 7.5%.
And the other components we areactually adding money to.
So the commodities we'll beadding $32 to it to get it back
up to 7.5%.
It's at 7.12% now.
(27:38):
We'll be adding $30 to theIntermediate Treasury Bond Fund,
vgit, to get it from 14.5% backup to 15%.
And then we'll be adding mostlyto the long-term treasury bond
holding, vglt.
We'll be adding $395 out ofthat to get it back from 35.6%
(28:02):
back up to 40%, and we've set it.
So we will continue to havesome cash in the portfolio for
its next distribution.
All of this will be detailed onthe website, but you'll
actually see the results not inthis week's posting but in the
next week's posting, because wewill do these rebalancings on
Monday.
(28:22):
All right, our next portfolio,one of what we would call our
bread and butter portfolio,something that somebody might
actually hold in retirement.
This is the golden butterfly.
It was invented by Tyler overat Portfolio Charts.
It has stocks, bonds and goldin it.
Basically, the stocks are onewing, the bonds are another wing
(28:43):
and the head of the portfoliois the gold.
Tyler has some nice write-upsof this portfolio and the one we
just did, the all seasons andthe golden ratio that I will
link to in the show notes.
So this is a evenly allocatedportfolio where the target
allocation is 20% for each ofthe components and, looking at
(29:04):
what they are right now, thegold is up at 23.94%.
Even though we've been sellinggold all year out of this
portfolio, it is still the bestperformer and we'll be selling
$449 out of it to put into theother components.
The next best component is VTI,which is the total stock market
fund, and that is at 21.4%right now 21.42.
(29:29):
So we'll be selling $169 worthof that to put into the other
components.
The other components are allbelow 20% right now.
Shy, the short-term bond fund,is at 18.91%, so we'll be adding
$112 to that.
The long-term treasury bondfund, vt, is at 17.13 percent,
(29:52):
and so we'll be adding $310 tothat to true it up to 20 percent
.
And then the small cap valuefund, viov, is currently at
18.08 percent and we'll beadding $204 to that to true that
up to 20%, and that'll alsoleave some money left over for
our next distribution.
(30:12):
There's currently $58 sittingthere from dividends and
interest payments.
I did forget to mention what theperformance of this portfolio
is so far.
It is up 0.67% month to date.
It's up 6.89% year to date andup 43.16% since inception in
July 2020.
(30:32):
This portfolio is on theconservative side for portfolios
with high safe withdrawal rates, but that also assists its
stability greatly.
So if you really want to sleepwell at night, this may be the
portfolio for you, or somethingsimilar.
Well, you haven't got the knackof being idly rich.
You see, you should do like mejust snooze and dream, dream and
(30:54):
snooze.
The pleasures are unlimited.
It's easy to make this one moreaggressive simply by cutting
back on the short-term bondallocation to SHY and then
adding that to another riskcomponent, such as the two stock
funds, or even an additionalstock fund or refund, something
like that.
So it's a very good baseportfolio to work from if you
(31:18):
are trying to constructsomething but want to make sure
that it's on the conservativeside.
Moving to our next homegrowngolden ratio portfolio, this one
is 42% in stocks and that's intwo funds.
(31:38):
We have 21% in VUG.
It's a large cap growth fundand 21% in VIOV, which is a
small cap value fund, which is asmall cap value fund.
Then we have 26% in long-termtreasury bonds in VGLT, 16% in
(32:02):
gold that's in GLDM 10% in amanaged futures fund, dbmf and
in this version of the goldenratio, we are including 6% in
cash in a money market fund, andthe reason we do that is to
illustrate a kind of portfoliothat represents what you would
call the original bucketstrategy, where you have a cash
allocation that you take fromall year long in terms of
distributions and you nevertouch anything else in the
(32:23):
portfolio until rebalancing day,and so that's the day we are
here and we are on right now.
For the other portfolios, theother sample portfolios, we are
actually looking at it everymonth and selling things that
are high to the extent we needcash for distributions, and you
can adopt this kind ofwithdrawal strategy with
virtually any portfolio.
(32:43):
You just need to be able toassess how much cash you'll
actually need for the next year.
In this case, we have a 6%allocation.
We're basically taking 5% outof that, but that does not
include all the dividends thatend up getting paid into it over
the course of the year, whichend up being between 2% and 3%
of the portfolio anyway.
So, even though we've beentaking cash out of the money
(33:05):
market all year long, it isstill at 2.92% of the portfolio
right now.
We will be truing that back upto 6% by adding $330 to it.
From the other components.
Now the component we areselling the most from this year
is gold, of course, gldm.
It is currently at 21.31% ofthe portfolio.
(33:29):
It is currently at 21.31% ofthe portfolio.
The target is 16%.
So we're going to be selling$569 out of that and then
redistributing that to the othercomponents in the portfolio,
mostly going into the cash.
The other winner since the lastrebalancing has been the large
cap growth fund, vug.
That is currently at 23.73%.
(33:51):
The target is 21%.
So we'll be selling $292 fromthat to true that up Now.
As for the other components,the managed futures DBMF is
slightly down.
It is at 9.25% of the portfolioright now.
We'll need to add $81 to thatto true it back up to 10%.
(34:12):
The small cap value fund, viov,is also slightly underwater.
It's at 19.66% right now.
The target is 21%.
So we'll be adding $143 to thatto true that back up to 21%.
And then the laggard this pastyear has been VGLT, the
(34:32):
long-term treasury bond fund.
It is currently at 23.14%.
The target is 26%, so we needto add $307 to that to true that
one back up.
These bond funds always looklike they have performed worse
than they actually have, becauseyou have to remember that all
of their income is paid out incash over the course of the year
(34:54):
and ends up in the money marketfund, so its true performance
over the past year has beenclose to flat or slightly up if
you included all of the incomethat's been paid out of it.
In any event, we'll be trued upand ready to go for another
year taking the distributionsout of the cash money market
fund.
I forgot to mention itsperformance so far.
(35:15):
It's up 0.72% month-to-date,it's up 6.1% year-to-date and up
37.88% since inception in July2020.
And with all of these, you canread about it at the website as
well.
Now turning to our next one, theone that's going to require the
most work.
This is the Risk ParityUltimate Portfolio, and really
(35:37):
the purpose of this is to be akitchen sink where we put lots
of little pieces of all sorts ofthings, mostly just to see how
it all does.
I wouldn't expect anyone wouldwant a portfolio with this many
components in it, so this endsup being more of kind of a
testing ground for us thansomething that I would expect
most people would be holding.
(35:57):
It currently has 14 funds in itin two accounts.
Thankfully, we're going to beable to consolidate it down to
one account now that we're ableto buy cryptocurrencies in ETF
form, because the whole reasonwe have a separate account is to
account for the two cryptoassets, which are 1% each in
Bitcoin and in Ether.
(36:17):
I think we're going to closethat account, bring all that
money over and just put it inone Bitcoin fund, because, as
time goes on, it seems to belooking like Bitcoin itself has
a better diversificationproperty than a lot of these
other cryptocurrencies that seemto just follow other tech funds
.
So there's $213 worth ofBitcoin and Ether in that
(36:41):
account right now.
When we bring it over, we'll bebuying IBIT, the iShares
Bitcoin fund, and we'll bebuying $193 worth of that.
So it just ends up we'reselling $20 worth of that.
The other consolidation I thinkwe're going to do has to do with
the two treasury bond funds.
Right now, we have 15% in VGLTand 5% in TMF, the levered
(37:05):
treasury bond fund.
That equals 20% overall.
We can consolidate that and getthe same kind of effect on the
portfolio by consolidating thatinto a strips fund.
So we're going to use GOVZ forthat and that's going to end up
being 20% of the portfolio.
So we'll sell those other twocomponents at about $300 from
(37:28):
other sales in the portfolio andend up with $1,930 worth of
GOVZ when all that is said anddone.
Now, going through the rest ofthese components which we aren't
changing in terms of what fundswe're using, first one is VUG.
That is a Vanguard large capgrowth fund.
The target for that is 10%.
(37:49):
It's currently at 11.91%.
So we'll be selling $165 out ofthat one.
In the other winner categorieswe have USMV.
That's a low volatility fund.
There's a 5% allocation to that.
It's currently at 5.34.
We'll be selling $24 out ofthat to true that up.
(38:10):
We have UPRO 5% in that.
That's in a levered S&P 500fund, currently at 6.04%.
So we'll be selling $91 fromthat to true that one up to 5%.
We have a Chinese shares fund,kba.
That also had a good year lastyear, currently at 5.54% of the
(38:31):
portfolio.
We'll be selling $43 out ofthat to true that up to 5%.
And of course, the big winnerin this portfolio was also gold
GLDM.
It is currently at 19.03% ofthe portfolio.
The target is 15%.
So we'll be selling $359 worthof that to true that up in this
(38:51):
portfolio.
And then going to the other onesthat we need to add something
to.
First one is VIOV.
That's a small cap value fundfrom Vanguard.
It is currently at 14.12%.
The target is 15%, so we'll beadding $107 to that one.
Next one is REET, which is aREIT fund.
(39:11):
The target for that is 5% ofthe portfolio.
It's currently at 4.96, sowe'll add $9 to that to chew
that one up.
We have PFFV, a preferred sharesfund.
It's currently at 4.65% of theportfolio.
We'll need to add $41 to thatto make it up to its 5% target
allocation.
(39:31):
Up to its 5% target allocation.
Dbmf is the next one.
That is a managed futures fund,currently at 8.59% of the
portfolio.
We'll need to add $115 to thatto true that one up.
And then the last one is a longshort fund called BTAL, which
essentially goes long valuestocks and short growth stocks.
(39:53):
It is currently at 2.53% of theportfolio.
The target allocation for thatis 3%, so we'll be adding $49 to
that to true that up and all ofthat will be reported at the
(40:29):
website, since I know listeningto it is probably very confusing
if it and looking at how theportfolio performed so far this
year.
It's up 0.7% month-to-date.
It's up 5.91% year-to-date andup 26.31% since inception in
July 2020.
I'm looking forward to havingit all back in one account again
(40:51):
, which will make things a loteasier for me All.
Right.
Now let's move to theportfolios we're not rebalancing
, which are all theseexperimental portfolios that
have levered funds in them anddo very strange things at
strange times.
So don't try these at home, butthey're interesting experiments
to look at.
Voices (41:10):
Tony Stark was able to build this in a cave with a box
of scraps.
Mostly Uncle Frank (41:17):
So the first one is the accelerated
permanent portfolio.
This one's 27.5% in a leveredbond fund TMF, 25% in UPRO
that's a levered S&P 500 fund,25% in PFFV, a preferred shares
fund, and 22.5% in gold and GLDM.
It's down 0.9% month to date,it's up 6% year to date and up
(41:42):
7.09% since inception in July2020.
Moving to our next one, theaggressive 50-50.
This is half stocks and halfbonds.
This is our most levered andleast diversified of these
portfolios and also the worstperformer.
It is one-third in a leveredstock fund, upro, one-third in a
levered bond fund TMF, and theremaining third in PFFV, a
(42:05):
preferred shares fund, and VGIT,an intermediate treasury bond
fund, and those serve as ballastin this portfolio.
It's down 1.37% month-to-date.
It's up 0.63% year-to-date anddown 11.37% since inception in
July 2020.
It has not been aided by all ofits volatility.
(42:25):
All right, moving to thelevered golden ratio, it's our
next one that's a year youngerthan the other ones.
So this one is 35% in acomposite fund, ntsx, which is
the S&P 500 and treasury bonds,levered up 1.5 to 1.
It's got 15% in AVDV, which isan international small cap value
(42:50):
fund.
20% in gold, gldm.
10% in a managed futures fund,kmlm.
10% in TMF, a levered bond fund, and the remaining 10% in two
leveraged funds, udow and UTSL,which follow the Dow and a
utilities index.
(43:11):
Respectively, it's up 0.32%month-to-date.
It's up 9.64% year-to-date.
It's doing the best of allthese portfolios this year so
far, but it's only up 4.79%since inception in July 2021,
which was a very bad time tostart withdrawing from a
portfolio.
(43:31):
And now moving to our last one,the Optra portfolio.
One portfolio to rule them all.
This one's only a year old.
This is a return stackedportfolio which takes its ideas
from Corey Hofstein and thepeople over at Resolve Asset
Management.
It is 16% in a leveraged stockfund, upro.
(43:53):
24% in AVGV, which is aworldwide value fund.
It's a fund of funds fromAvantis.
24% in GOVZ, which is atreasury strips fund, and the
remaining 36% is divided into18% each in gold and managed
futures.
That's GLDM and DVMF.
(44:13):
It's up 0.28% month-to-date.
It's up 7.7% year-to-date andup 10.83% since inception in
July 2024.
And that concludes our weeklyportfolio reviews and our annual
rebalancings for the first fourportfolios.
Our annual rebalancings for thefirst four portfolios.
(44:42):
As I mentioned, all of that isgoing to be recorded on the
website and will be transferredover to the revamped website
when we get there.
But now I see our signal isbeginning to fade.
If you have comments orquestions for me, please send
them to frank atriskparityradarcom.
That email is frank atriskparityradarcom.
Or you can go to the websitewwwriskparityradarcom.
(45:03):
Put your message into thecontact form and I'll get it all
that way.
If you haven't had a chance todo it, please go to your
favorite podcast provider andlike subscribe.
Give me some stars, a follow, areview.
That would be great.
Okay, thank you once again fortuning in.
This is Frank Vasquez with RiskParty Radio Signing off.
Voices (45:30):
So I'll catch you on the rebound, your magnitude, until
(45:58):
next week.
Nanu Nanu.
Mostly Mary And Some Voices (46:07):
The Risk Parody Radio Show is
hosted by Frank Vasquez.
The content provided is forentertainment and informational
purposes only and does notconstitute financial, investment
tax or legal advice.
Thank you.
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