October 8, 2024 • 18 mins
“This year, in terms of the IOD, it's just been sitting there in neutral. We've been just watching it, seeing if there's anything developing. At the moment, there's a slight hint that it's looking like it could go a little bit, negative IOD, which would actually increase our chances of some rainfall, but similar to the Pacific Ocean, in the Indian Ocean, that is purely just based on a temperature difference between the Horn of Africa and the waters off the coast of Sumatra.
“Again, like the El Nino for La Nina patterns to develop, it's not just the sea surface temperatures that we need there to be in a certain pattern. We also need the trade winds. pressure patterns, and the cloudiness also to come to the party. And that's also not really happening at this point of time either
In the second episode of our eight-part series Planning for Prosperity, Janine Batters talks with resident BCG climate expert Kate Finger about why sometimes, one climate outcome is predicted, yet what we actually experience, feels like the opposite.
Kate explains the importance of understanding that climate predictions are based on probabilities and how to decipher these, what is really being predicted for this spring and summer period and all the factors that need to align for us to receive the much talked about spring rains.
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About Kate Finger
Kate Finger is a Research Project Manager at BCG. Kate joined BCG in May 2019. Kate believes the work she is a part of is helping to improve the profitability and sustainability of Australian agriculture. Kate holds a Bachelor of Science – Majoring in Agricultural Science and a Masters of Agricultural Sciences specialising in Crop Production from the University of Melbourne. Kate loves horse riding, gardening and hiking.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
S1 (00:00):
BCG acknowledges the traditional custodians of country throughout Australia and
their connections to land, sea and community. We pay our
respects to their elders, past and present.
S2 (00:10):
This podcast is sponsored by Action Steel.
S3 (00:13):
This year, in terms of the IOD, it's just been
sitting there in neutral. We've been just watching it, seeing
if there's anything developing at the moment. There's a slight
hint that it's looking like it could go a little
bit negative IOD, which would actually increase our chances of
some rainfall, but similar to the Pacific Ocean in the
Indian Ocean, that is purely just based on a temperature
(00:33):
difference between the Horn of Africa and the waters off
the coast of Sumatra. Again, like the El Nino and
La Nina patterns to develop, it's not just the sea
surface temperatures that we need there to be in a
certain pattern. We also need the trade winds, pressure patterns
and the cloudiness also to come to the party there.
And that's also not really happening at this point of
(00:54):
time either.
S2 (00:55):
Welcome back to Shared Solutions by BCG. I'm Janine Batters
in the second episode of our series planning for prosperity,
I'm talking with our resident climate specialist, Kate Finger, and
I'm going to be asking you, what is going on
with these climate predictions. Welcome, Kate.
S3 (01:10):
Thanks, Janine.
S2 (01:11):
So I won't get Kate to introduce herself because we
actually have a whole episode dedicated to meet Kate. So
if you want to jump back and listen to that,
by all means go do that. But we are going
to jump straight in, Kate. So we've been experiencing some
warmer weather. We haven't got a lot of rain yet.
We've been hearing that it's supposed to be a wet spring.
(01:33):
The same thing happened last year. They were talking El Nino. No.
So what's going on?
S3 (01:38):
That is a jolly good question. And there is. Whilst
it doesn't look like there's much going on, there's actually
a lot going on climate wise. It's just not quite
eventuating as to how we might be wishing it is.
S2 (01:49):
So there must be a reason, an underlying reason, Kate,
why we keep hearing, particularly in the media, that it's
going to be a wetter spring and it really hurts
at the moment.
S3 (01:59):
Yeah. So Janine, there's a couple of things going on there.
So the media is absolutely sensationalizing the climate forecasts and predictions.
Their models are doing their runs. They're coming to a consensus.
A cluster of them are suggesting that there is a
potential for a La Nina to develop. The media latches
on to that headline, and then the next thing, it's
plastered around all the newspapers and making all the news
(02:21):
that we're going to get a La Nina in summer,
which is definitely possible. But there's also a lot going
on with our climate that's also impacting what we're actually
currently experiencing and likely to experience in the coming months
as well. And it's the same thing that happened last year, too.
The forecasts were things were aligning looking like we're going
to get an El Nino, but just because it's looking
like an El Nino is going to develop and it
(02:43):
and the criteria is met for it to be called
an El Nino, it doesn't guarantee, it doesn't mean that
it's things are going to be dry. Anything is possible.
It's just in that particular instance last year with the
El Nino, all the possibilities were on the table, the
models were skewing it towards a higher increased chance of drier.
But there was that one little model run in the
(03:04):
background there that was going, no, it's actually going to
be wetter. And that's just what happened to eventuate in
spring last year.
S2 (03:09):
When we get these predictions, are you talking more probabilities
rather than this is going to happen or not?
S3 (03:15):
Yeah. So that's exactly right. Jeanine. We are talking these
are more probabilities and giving us an idea that there's
an increased chance or increased likelihood of something occurring, rather
than when a forecast or outlook is given. This is
definitely what is going to happen. And that's because how
the models work is they run off a heap of
model runs that are then generated behind the scenes, and
(03:37):
then the forecast is where the majority of those models lie.
So if you, for example, have 100 different model runs,
and then in a year like this, there's an increased
number of them suggesting a La Nina will develop. So
for example, let's put some numbers around that. There's 60
in the La Nina camp that is going to skew
(03:59):
the forecast towards indicating there's an increased chance likelihood of
a La Nina developing, but that's only 60 of the
model runs, so there's another 30 in the background there
that could be saying that it's likely to experience average conditions.
And then there could be another ten in there saying
that conditions could actually be dry. And it just so
happens that this year it's those ten that are right.
S2 (04:20):
Spoken like a true scientist there, Kate. So really it's
thinking about the language, the increased probability that we're going
to get a wetter. So can you tell me at
the moment what are the models saying now what is
actually happening. Are we going to get a wetter spring.
S3 (04:35):
Yes. What the models are actually saying now is that
both the Enso that's our La Nina El Nino area
and our IOD Indian Ocean Dipole, both of those climate
drivers are currently in the neutral phase, so all possibilities
are on the table. There is some cooling in the
(04:55):
Nino 3.4 box in the Pacific Ocean when that area
cools down, and once it hits a certain threshold, that
is what triggers a La Nina to be announced as
a climate event officially underway. There is some activity in
the ocean suggesting, and that's what a lot of the
models are picking up on this cooling and going, oh look,
(05:16):
there's some cooling there. There's potential that El Nino could develop.
And they are suggesting that increased chances of one occurring
towards the end of the year and into summer, but
a lot more needs to occur for that to really
have much of an impact on our climate. And it's
looking like if it does develop, it will be quite
weak and short lived. When we're talking about models, we're
talking not just about the access model that the bureau have,
(05:38):
but also it gets compared to a range of international
models as well. And there the general consensus of those
is for an increased likelihood of above average rainfall into
that late spring summer period. But we need the wind
patterns to be going in the right direction to bring
moisture created up in the atmosphere across to mainland. Australia.
(06:00):
We need the pressure patterns to be performing in the
right way. So that those rain fronts can move across
and deliver the rain. That is also something that's impacting
our weather at the moment, and we also need the
cloud patterns as well, to be able to have increased cloudiness,
to be able to generate that rain.
S2 (06:16):
So how are all those other things looking, Kate?
S3 (06:19):
They are not looking like they want to come to
the party this year. There's still opportunity for that to change,
but at the moment they're not really showing up at all.
So all the action is just in the ocean.
S2 (06:29):
Okay. What I'm thinking is normally I read your climate
section in the technical bulletin. It's always very good. We
normally start talking about the IOD in about July, and
that's when you normally say that's when it's more likely to.
We don't see anything before then isn't really accurate. Normally
when we're talking about the IOD we're thinking spring. Great.
(06:50):
We're going to get some rain early spring. But because
it hasn't aligned yet, do you think that's playing a
role that it's delayed. Yeah.
S3 (06:58):
In that autumn period, the climate drivers go through this
reset phase, and that is one of the main reasons
why they're not so accurate or good to be looking at,
because they've done all their past year's activity. They're going
back to neutral, and then they'll start ramping up and
moving in a certain direction as the year progresses over
that winter period that you're saying they're Janine, that is
when we do start to see a bit more activity
(07:20):
in those regions. That gives us a bit more confidence
in those forecasts to see where the ocean temperatures, wind patterns,
pressure patterns, where they're all aligning. And that's what's helping
to drive whether an IOD event develops or an El
Nino La Nina event develops this year. In terms of
the IOD, it's just been sitting there in neutral. We've
(07:40):
been just watching it, seeing if there's anything developing at
the moment. There's a slight hint that it's looking like
it could go a little bit negative IOD, which would
actually increase our chances of some rainfall. But similar to
the Pacific Ocean in the Indian Ocean, that is purely
just based on a temperature difference between the Horn of
Africa and the waters off the coast of Sumatra. Again,
(08:03):
like the El Nino and La Nina patterns to develop,
it's not just the sea surface temperatures that we need
there to be in a certain pattern. We also need
the trade winds, pressure patterns and the cloudiness also to
come to the party there. And that's also not really
happening at this point of time either.
S2 (08:18):
So in terms of the sea surface temperatures, I think
I was reading that it's sitting at about I'm probably
going to get this wrong, but about minus oh four
or something. Is that right? And then but it has
to reach minus seven and it has to sit there
for a certain amount of time. Correct me Kate. Yeah.
S3 (08:36):
So that's in the key indicator box for whether the
Bom declares an El Nino or La Nina event to
be underway is there's a threshold that we want the
sea surface temperature anomalies to be having a difference by.
And it is currently sitting around that -0.4. But we
need it to get up to that -0.8 for it
(08:57):
to be declared in La Nina and for.
S2 (08:59):
A period of time.
S3 (09:00):
And for a period of time as well. Yes. How
long is that? Can't quite remember. Off the top of
my head, I think for an IOD, it needs around
that eight week period to be above the threshold for
it to be announced.
S2 (09:11):
Okay, so even though it might be creeping towards it,
it's going to have to sit there for a while
for it to even be declared. So we've probably got
another what how many weeks?
S3 (09:21):
Yeah, a few, but we're talking a lot about meeting
thresholds and things being declared. But we're in sort of
a bit of unchartered territory at the moment with climate change,
and that's having quite a big impact on sea surface
temperatures around the globe. The sea is each year hearing
reports that it's just been in. Overall temperatures are just
(09:42):
constantly increasing. So in terms of all of the thresholds
and things that we're using, they're not necessarily being super
helpful because temperatures are higher year on year. In fact,
we're trying to target that negative point eight of a
temperature difference actually might not be triggering anymore for El
Nino or La Nina event. The thresholds might actually be smaller,
(10:02):
so even if we don't get there, it still doesn't
mean that it's not going to be influencing our climate
and rainfall patterns.
S2 (10:11):
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S3 (10:44):
I think it's definitely making it very hard for anyone
involved in climate forecasting and working with the models they
work off of past events that helped shape their current
predictions and go off. What's happened in the past and
this is what the wave is looking like and things
like that. But at the moment, unchartered territory with some
of the temperatures that we are experiencing. And so as
(11:07):
we have seen very much this year, they are really
actually struggling to provide forecasts. But the very nature of
climate forecasts is because they're based on probability. Definitely should
not be taking them as gospel. You can't go that. Oh,
the forecast was saying it was going to be wet
for this month and we didn't get it. They got
it wrong. You just can't do that because they're just
(11:28):
based off probabilities.
S2 (11:30):
What advice would you give farmers now? And probably even
moving into next year's planning, taking into account these predictions.
S3 (11:38):
I would definitely keep looking at your the apps that
you're looking at for your weather forecasting, the bureau's website
for the longer term range outlooks, and whatever else you
use information wise to get your climate outlooks for the
season ahead. Yes. They're not always right, but that's the
nature of them. They are based on probabilities. There can
be really good for getting an a bit of a
(12:00):
feel or a flair for where the season's going to
potentially end up, so they can help with if you
have in the back of your mind, help with logistics
and planning for, oh, it could end up this way.
So maybe I'll just keep that in my thought process.
But definitely don't take them as gospel and go that
they said it's going to be a La Nina and
spring by everything that I need to be able to
(12:22):
manage my disease and stock up on urea, because it's
going to be wet. That is not how you should
be using climate forecasts at all.
S2 (12:28):
So hedge your bets, but maybe swing them a little
bit more in one way with the predictions.
S3 (12:33):
Yes, and keep refining that to as you go along.
So don't make that decision in January. I know that
can be hard for some things which you might need
to forward purchase, but even if you just got that
little bit extra on hand, if that's what the forecast
is looking like to help you, if it does eventuate
because it's better to be prepared rather than unprepared.
S2 (12:51):
Okay. Keeping what you've said in mind, what information is
available now that will help us with our planning, we
might not use it solely for our planning, as you say,
but what are they saying? Is it going to be warmer?
Is it going to be wetter? What can we use
to help us plan?
S3 (13:07):
Well, I think as how the season's progressed now, I
think we can probably rule out it being wetter for
any benefit to the harvest season at the moment. Although
if the La Nina event does come to fruition and
it does actually bring some increased rainfall, we could experience
a few little interruptions over that harvest period of time.
(13:28):
But for the moment, I think you're pretty good to
bet on. All options are on the table still, but
it's looking very unlikely to be wet. Yes. Year on
year data has been showing that our maximum daytime temperatures
are constantly increasing. And interestingly, this year, though, we have
been having some quite below average minimum temperatures.
S2 (13:46):
I was going to ask you about that, Kate, because
it always feels like I don't know, it always feels
like it. Maybe it's just that the frosts hurt us
more when it's dry. Because what we did think we had,
we don't anymore. Is there a correlation between dry years
and frost?
S3 (14:03):
There is, because frost. For frosty conditions, you need those
clear night skies for the cool temperatures to really come
down and settle in on the surface. When you've got
more rainfall around, you've got more cloud cover, which traps
the warmth into the Earth's surface. And so you're less
likely to see those frost events.
S2 (14:18):
You can just see, though, that there is a lot
of pressure on climate forecasting, isn't there to have the answers?
Talk to me about pressure systems. Yeah.
S3 (14:25):
So this year it's I would say weather wise, it's
probably been the year of the high pressure system. It's
had a major impact on our rainfall pretty much the
whole growing season really. The reason why there's been rain
on the forecast, we can see it there like a week,
two weeks out and then it just disappears. And that's
just because we are then being impacted by the weather systems.
(14:46):
And it's just high pressure that's been dominating it, blocking
any of those potential rain fronts getting to us.
S2 (14:52):
I feel like you've just hit the nail on the head, Kate,
because I just feel like that's just been this year. Oh, yeah,
there's some rain coming now. There's not. Oh yeah, there's
some rain coming. And that's particularly we've seen that particularly
in spring I think, which has hurt a lot. Do
we know when these high pressure systems are about.
S3 (15:09):
Talking about high pressure systems are more of a weather
related pattern. And so to be able to forecast those things,
you've got 7 to 14 day window and you can't
really go too much beyond that.
S2 (15:19):
So when the people that are saying next Tuesday we're
going to get 1 to 5 mil, are they taking
into account these high pressure systems that end up pushing
it away or keeping it away?
S3 (15:30):
So when they're making that a week out, they yes,
will have taken in the current pressure patterns at the
time and looking at where they're likely to go. And
then as the days develop and the pressure patterns have
their own little mind and think of what they're going
to do, they then change the forecast up because they've
moved in a different direction, or they've strengthened over here.
And then that's when we start to see that rain
(15:52):
this year particularly disappear.
S2 (15:54):
So it's probably not the forecasters that we should be
cross with. It should be the weather gods, the pressure systems.
They seem like they're causing a lot of trouble.
S3 (16:01):
They are this year.
S2 (16:02):
Okay, that makes sense. Can you tell me anything else
that's been having an effect this year?
S3 (16:07):
Probably the two big ones have been the high pressure
that's dominating our weather patterns over this whole growing season
and the impact of climate change, and just how that's
not just impacting the way the forecasts are picking up
on the different signs and signals as to what likely
climate drivers are going to be doing, but also just
their overall impact on our climate and weather patterns. We
(16:30):
are in this uncharted territory, and the scientists are doing
a great job trying to understand and go through the
modeling and work out what impact is this having, why
things aren't quite behaving as we expect, but it will
be a slow process.
S2 (16:42):
Well, it's really hard, isn't it, because models are based
on years and if this is new territory, then we
can't really model on it. Yeah, so that's the tricky
bit there.
S3 (16:50):
Something that's been actually interesting this year is I know
some people give the bomb a bit of a bad rap,
but if you've actually been looking at the model forecast
for the bomb this year in comparison to the other
international models, they've actually been pretty good on the forecast.
So they were saying neutral. And so for pretty much
this whole year, and that's what's actually been happening, where
(17:10):
more of the international ones have been dipping down into
that La Nina territory. And yeah, the Bom model has
picked up that. No, I don't think that's actually going
to happen. And so far it's actually not.
S2 (17:21):
But that doesn't sound newspapers does it. No it.
S3 (17:22):
Doesn't. And that is why. Would not make a very
catchy headline at all. No it.
S2 (17:29):
Wouldn't. So I suppose that's something to factor in there,
and probably something to keep in mind if you are
hearing these things or reading these things, to just check
back with what the bomb's predicting.
S3 (17:39):
Yeah, they've got some great communications out, not just on
their website, but if you subscribe to their email list
as well. And just putting out the the basic facts
of where things are at.
S2 (17:48):
I'll link to those in the show notes. Was there
anything else, Kate, you think our listeners might be interested
in knowing or would help them plan?
S3 (17:57):
I don't think so. It's just it's been a really
tough year, farming wise, to have forecasts, a potential likely
outcome over spring, and then it's just not eventuating at all.
And being pretty frustrated with how things have turned out.
And I guess the positive spin is that if we
do get some moisture, whilst it might not be good
for this year, maybe we'll be able to top up
our soil moisture levels. So next year, with whatever eventuates there,
(18:21):
we might be able to recoup a little bit.
S2 (18:25):
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S1 (18:34):
BCG drives the prosperity of Australian farmers, communities and landscapes
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visit BCG. Warrego.
BCG acknowledges the traditional custodians of country throughout Australia and
their connections to land, sea and community. We pay our
respects to their elders, past and present.
S2 (00:10):
This podcast is sponsored by Action Steel.
S3 (00:13):
This year, in terms of the IOD, it's just been
sitting there in neutral. We've been just watching it, seeing
if there's anything developing at the moment. There's a slight
hint that it's looking like it could go a little
bit negative IOD, which would actually increase our chances of
some rainfall, but similar to the Pacific Ocean in the
Indian Ocean, that is purely just based on a temperature
(00:33):
difference between the Horn of Africa and the waters off
the coast of Sumatra. Again, like the El Nino and
La Nina patterns to develop, it's not just the sea
surface temperatures that we need there to be in a
certain pattern. We also need the trade winds, pressure patterns
and the cloudiness also to come to the party there.
And that's also not really happening at this point of
(00:54):
time either.
S2 (00:55):
Welcome back to Shared Solutions by BCG. I'm Janine Batters
in the second episode of our series planning for prosperity,
I'm talking with our resident climate specialist, Kate Finger, and
I'm going to be asking you, what is going on
with these climate predictions. Welcome, Kate.
S3 (01:10):
Thanks, Janine.
S2 (01:11):
So I won't get Kate to introduce herself because we
actually have a whole episode dedicated to meet Kate. So
if you want to jump back and listen to that,
by all means go do that. But we are going
to jump straight in, Kate. So we've been experiencing some
warmer weather. We haven't got a lot of rain yet.
We've been hearing that it's supposed to be a wet spring.
(01:33):
The same thing happened last year. They were talking El Nino. No.
So what's going on?
S3 (01:38):
That is a jolly good question. And there is. Whilst
it doesn't look like there's much going on, there's actually
a lot going on climate wise. It's just not quite
eventuating as to how we might be wishing it is.
S2 (01:49):
So there must be a reason, an underlying reason, Kate,
why we keep hearing, particularly in the media, that it's
going to be a wetter spring and it really hurts
at the moment.
S3 (01:59):
Yeah. So Janine, there's a couple of things going on there.
So the media is absolutely sensationalizing the climate forecasts and predictions.
Their models are doing their runs. They're coming to a consensus.
A cluster of them are suggesting that there is a
potential for a La Nina to develop. The media latches
on to that headline, and then the next thing, it's
plastered around all the newspapers and making all the news
(02:21):
that we're going to get a La Nina in summer,
which is definitely possible. But there's also a lot going
on with our climate that's also impacting what we're actually
currently experiencing and likely to experience in the coming months
as well. And it's the same thing that happened last year, too.
The forecasts were things were aligning looking like we're going
to get an El Nino, but just because it's looking
like an El Nino is going to develop and it
(02:43):
and the criteria is met for it to be called
an El Nino, it doesn't guarantee, it doesn't mean that
it's things are going to be dry. Anything is possible.
It's just in that particular instance last year with the
El Nino, all the possibilities were on the table, the
models were skewing it towards a higher increased chance of drier.
But there was that one little model run in the
(03:04):
background there that was going, no, it's actually going to
be wetter. And that's just what happened to eventuate in
spring last year.
S2 (03:09):
When we get these predictions, are you talking more probabilities
rather than this is going to happen or not?
S3 (03:15):
Yeah. So that's exactly right. Jeanine. We are talking these
are more probabilities and giving us an idea that there's
an increased chance or increased likelihood of something occurring, rather
than when a forecast or outlook is given. This is
definitely what is going to happen. And that's because how
the models work is they run off a heap of
model runs that are then generated behind the scenes, and
(03:37):
then the forecast is where the majority of those models lie.
So if you, for example, have 100 different model runs,
and then in a year like this, there's an increased
number of them suggesting a La Nina will develop. So
for example, let's put some numbers around that. There's 60
in the La Nina camp that is going to skew
(03:59):
the forecast towards indicating there's an increased chance likelihood of
a La Nina developing, but that's only 60 of the
model runs, so there's another 30 in the background there
that could be saying that it's likely to experience average conditions.
And then there could be another ten in there saying
that conditions could actually be dry. And it just so
happens that this year it's those ten that are right.
S2 (04:20):
Spoken like a true scientist there, Kate. So really it's
thinking about the language, the increased probability that we're going
to get a wetter. So can you tell me at
the moment what are the models saying now what is
actually happening. Are we going to get a wetter spring.
S3 (04:35):
Yes. What the models are actually saying now is that
both the Enso that's our La Nina El Nino area
and our IOD Indian Ocean Dipole, both of those climate
drivers are currently in the neutral phase, so all possibilities
are on the table. There is some cooling in the
(04:55):
Nino 3.4 box in the Pacific Ocean when that area
cools down, and once it hits a certain threshold, that
is what triggers a La Nina to be announced as
a climate event officially underway. There is some activity in
the ocean suggesting, and that's what a lot of the
models are picking up on this cooling and going, oh look,
(05:16):
there's some cooling there. There's potential that El Nino could develop.
And they are suggesting that increased chances of one occurring
towards the end of the year and into summer, but
a lot more needs to occur for that to really
have much of an impact on our climate. And it's
looking like if it does develop, it will be quite
weak and short lived. When we're talking about models, we're
talking not just about the access model that the bureau have,
(05:38):
but also it gets compared to a range of international
models as well. And there the general consensus of those
is for an increased likelihood of above average rainfall into
that late spring summer period. But we need the wind
patterns to be going in the right direction to bring
moisture created up in the atmosphere across to mainland. Australia.
(06:00):
We need the pressure patterns to be performing in the
right way. So that those rain fronts can move across
and deliver the rain. That is also something that's impacting
our weather at the moment, and we also need the
cloud patterns as well, to be able to have increased cloudiness,
to be able to generate that rain.
S2 (06:16):
So how are all those other things looking, Kate?
S3 (06:19):
They are not looking like they want to come to
the party this year. There's still opportunity for that to change,
but at the moment they're not really showing up at all.
So all the action is just in the ocean.
S2 (06:29):
Okay. What I'm thinking is normally I read your climate
section in the technical bulletin. It's always very good. We
normally start talking about the IOD in about July, and
that's when you normally say that's when it's more likely to.
We don't see anything before then isn't really accurate. Normally
when we're talking about the IOD we're thinking spring. Great.
(06:50):
We're going to get some rain early spring. But because
it hasn't aligned yet, do you think that's playing a
role that it's delayed. Yeah.
S3 (06:58):
In that autumn period, the climate drivers go through this
reset phase, and that is one of the main reasons
why they're not so accurate or good to be looking at,
because they've done all their past year's activity. They're going
back to neutral, and then they'll start ramping up and
moving in a certain direction as the year progresses over
that winter period that you're saying they're Janine, that is
when we do start to see a bit more activity
(07:20):
in those regions. That gives us a bit more confidence
in those forecasts to see where the ocean temperatures, wind patterns,
pressure patterns, where they're all aligning. And that's what's helping
to drive whether an IOD event develops or an El
Nino La Nina event develops this year. In terms of
the IOD, it's just been sitting there in neutral. We've
(07:40):
been just watching it, seeing if there's anything developing at
the moment. There's a slight hint that it's looking like
it could go a little bit negative IOD, which would
actually increase our chances of some rainfall. But similar to
the Pacific Ocean in the Indian Ocean, that is purely
just based on a temperature difference between the Horn of
Africa and the waters off the coast of Sumatra. Again,
(08:03):
like the El Nino and La Nina patterns to develop,
it's not just the sea surface temperatures that we need
there to be in a certain pattern. We also need
the trade winds, pressure patterns and the cloudiness also to
come to the party there. And that's also not really
happening at this point of time either.
S2 (08:18):
So in terms of the sea surface temperatures, I think
I was reading that it's sitting at about I'm probably
going to get this wrong, but about minus oh four
or something. Is that right? And then but it has
to reach minus seven and it has to sit there
for a certain amount of time. Correct me Kate. Yeah.
S3 (08:36):
So that's in the key indicator box for whether the
Bom declares an El Nino or La Nina event to
be underway is there's a threshold that we want the
sea surface temperature anomalies to be having a difference by.
And it is currently sitting around that -0.4. But we
need it to get up to that -0.8 for it
(08:57):
to be declared in La Nina and for.
S2 (08:59):
A period of time.
S3 (09:00):
And for a period of time as well. Yes. How
long is that? Can't quite remember. Off the top of
my head, I think for an IOD, it needs around
that eight week period to be above the threshold for
it to be announced.
S2 (09:11):
Okay, so even though it might be creeping towards it,
it's going to have to sit there for a while
for it to even be declared. So we've probably got
another what how many weeks?
S3 (09:21):
Yeah, a few, but we're talking a lot about meeting
thresholds and things being declared. But we're in sort of
a bit of unchartered territory at the moment with climate change,
and that's having quite a big impact on sea surface
temperatures around the globe. The sea is each year hearing
reports that it's just been in. Overall temperatures are just
(09:42):
constantly increasing. So in terms of all of the thresholds
and things that we're using, they're not necessarily being super
helpful because temperatures are higher year on year. In fact,
we're trying to target that negative point eight of a
temperature difference actually might not be triggering anymore for El
Nino or La Nina event. The thresholds might actually be smaller,
(10:02):
so even if we don't get there, it still doesn't
mean that it's not going to be influencing our climate
and rainfall patterns.
S2 (10:11):
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sizes and prices. It's becoming more unreliable, would you say?
S3 (10:44):
I think it's definitely making it very hard for anyone
involved in climate forecasting and working with the models they
work off of past events that helped shape their current
predictions and go off. What's happened in the past and
this is what the wave is looking like and things
like that. But at the moment, unchartered territory with some
of the temperatures that we are experiencing. And so as
(11:07):
we have seen very much this year, they are really
actually struggling to provide forecasts. But the very nature of
climate forecasts is because they're based on probability. Definitely should
not be taking them as gospel. You can't go that. Oh,
the forecast was saying it was going to be wet
for this month and we didn't get it. They got
it wrong. You just can't do that because they're just
(11:28):
based off probabilities.
S2 (11:30):
What advice would you give farmers now? And probably even
moving into next year's planning, taking into account these predictions.
S3 (11:38):
I would definitely keep looking at your the apps that
you're looking at for your weather forecasting, the bureau's website
for the longer term range outlooks, and whatever else you
use information wise to get your climate outlooks for the
season ahead. Yes. They're not always right, but that's the
nature of them. They are based on probabilities. There can
be really good for getting an a bit of a
(12:00):
feel or a flair for where the season's going to
potentially end up, so they can help with if you
have in the back of your mind, help with logistics
and planning for, oh, it could end up this way.
So maybe I'll just keep that in my thought process.
But definitely don't take them as gospel and go that
they said it's going to be a La Nina and
spring by everything that I need to be able to
(12:22):
manage my disease and stock up on urea, because it's
going to be wet. That is not how you should
be using climate forecasts at all.
S2 (12:28):
So hedge your bets, but maybe swing them a little
bit more in one way with the predictions.
S3 (12:33):
Yes, and keep refining that to as you go along.
So don't make that decision in January. I know that
can be hard for some things which you might need
to forward purchase, but even if you just got that
little bit extra on hand, if that's what the forecast
is looking like to help you, if it does eventuate
because it's better to be prepared rather than unprepared.
S2 (12:51):
Okay. Keeping what you've said in mind, what information is
available now that will help us with our planning, we
might not use it solely for our planning, as you say,
but what are they saying? Is it going to be warmer?
Is it going to be wetter? What can we use
to help us plan?
S3 (13:07):
Well, I think as how the season's progressed now, I
think we can probably rule out it being wetter for
any benefit to the harvest season at the moment. Although
if the La Nina event does come to fruition and
it does actually bring some increased rainfall, we could experience
a few little interruptions over that harvest period of time.
(13:28):
But for the moment, I think you're pretty good to
bet on. All options are on the table still, but
it's looking very unlikely to be wet. Yes. Year on
year data has been showing that our maximum daytime temperatures
are constantly increasing. And interestingly, this year, though, we have
been having some quite below average minimum temperatures.
S2 (13:46):
I was going to ask you about that, Kate, because
it always feels like I don't know, it always feels
like it. Maybe it's just that the frosts hurt us
more when it's dry. Because what we did think we had,
we don't anymore. Is there a correlation between dry years
and frost?
S3 (14:03):
There is, because frost. For frosty conditions, you need those
clear night skies for the cool temperatures to really come
down and settle in on the surface. When you've got
more rainfall around, you've got more cloud cover, which traps
the warmth into the Earth's surface. And so you're less
likely to see those frost events.
S2 (14:18):
You can just see, though, that there is a lot
of pressure on climate forecasting, isn't there to have the answers?
Talk to me about pressure systems. Yeah.
S3 (14:25):
So this year it's I would say weather wise, it's
probably been the year of the high pressure system. It's
had a major impact on our rainfall pretty much the
whole growing season really. The reason why there's been rain
on the forecast, we can see it there like a week,
two weeks out and then it just disappears. And that's
just because we are then being impacted by the weather systems.
(14:46):
And it's just high pressure that's been dominating it, blocking
any of those potential rain fronts getting to us.
S2 (14:52):
I feel like you've just hit the nail on the head, Kate,
because I just feel like that's just been this year. Oh, yeah,
there's some rain coming now. There's not. Oh yeah, there's
some rain coming. And that's particularly we've seen that particularly
in spring I think, which has hurt a lot. Do
we know when these high pressure systems are about.
S3 (15:09):
Talking about high pressure systems are more of a weather
related pattern. And so to be able to forecast those things,
you've got 7 to 14 day window and you can't
really go too much beyond that.
S2 (15:19):
So when the people that are saying next Tuesday we're
going to get 1 to 5 mil, are they taking
into account these high pressure systems that end up pushing
it away or keeping it away?
S3 (15:30):
So when they're making that a week out, they yes,
will have taken in the current pressure patterns at the
time and looking at where they're likely to go. And
then as the days develop and the pressure patterns have
their own little mind and think of what they're going
to do, they then change the forecast up because they've
moved in a different direction, or they've strengthened over here.
And then that's when we start to see that rain
(15:52):
this year particularly disappear.
S2 (15:54):
So it's probably not the forecasters that we should be
cross with. It should be the weather gods, the pressure systems.
They seem like they're causing a lot of trouble.
S3 (16:01):
They are this year.
S2 (16:02):
Okay, that makes sense. Can you tell me anything else
that's been having an effect this year?
S3 (16:07):
Probably the two big ones have been the high pressure
that's dominating our weather patterns over this whole growing season
and the impact of climate change, and just how that's
not just impacting the way the forecasts are picking up
on the different signs and signals as to what likely
climate drivers are going to be doing, but also just
their overall impact on our climate and weather patterns. We
(16:30):
are in this uncharted territory, and the scientists are doing
a great job trying to understand and go through the
modeling and work out what impact is this having, why
things aren't quite behaving as we expect, but it will
be a slow process.
S2 (16:42):
Well, it's really hard, isn't it, because models are based
on years and if this is new territory, then we
can't really model on it. Yeah, so that's the tricky
bit there.
S3 (16:50):
Something that's been actually interesting this year is I know
some people give the bomb a bit of a bad rap,
but if you've actually been looking at the model forecast
for the bomb this year in comparison to the other
international models, they've actually been pretty good on the forecast.
So they were saying neutral. And so for pretty much
this whole year, and that's what's actually been happening, where
(17:10):
more of the international ones have been dipping down into
that La Nina territory. And yeah, the Bom model has
picked up that. No, I don't think that's actually going
to happen. And so far it's actually not.
S2 (17:21):
But that doesn't sound newspapers does it. No it.
S3 (17:22):
Doesn't. And that is why. Would not make a very
catchy headline at all. No it.
S2 (17:29):
Wouldn't. So I suppose that's something to factor in there,
and probably something to keep in mind if you are
hearing these things or reading these things, to just check
back with what the bomb's predicting.
S3 (17:39):
Yeah, they've got some great communications out, not just on
their website, but if you subscribe to their email list
as well. And just putting out the the basic facts
of where things are at.
S2 (17:48):
I'll link to those in the show notes. Was there
anything else, Kate, you think our listeners might be interested
in knowing or would help them plan?
S3 (17:57):
I don't think so. It's just it's been a really
tough year, farming wise, to have forecasts, a potential likely
outcome over spring, and then it's just not eventuating at all.
And being pretty frustrated with how things have turned out.
And I guess the positive spin is that if we
do get some moisture, whilst it might not be good
for this year, maybe we'll be able to top up
our soil moisture levels. So next year, with whatever eventuates there,
(18:21):
we might be able to recoup a little bit.
S2 (18:25):
If you love the podcast and would like to show
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catch you again soon.
S1 (18:34):
BCG drives the prosperity of Australian farmers, communities and landscapes
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