April 2, 2024 • 16 mins
Easter 2024 hopped in early this year, and as a result sales expectations were muted. The Alloy.ai team, Joel and Logan, discuss the commercial and consumer-behavior dynamics at play during holidays like easter, and what they mean for consumer brands. In this episode we discuss:
- How narrow buying windows impact consumer brands replenishment efforts
- The tough decision of whether to produce holiday-specific SKUs
- What Easter sales might say about the broader economy.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
From Alloy AI.
This is Shelf Life.
Today we have a special bonusepisode.
My colleague and co-host, joelBeal, ceo and co-founder of
(00:26):
Alloy AI and a recoveringeconomist, will have a
conversation about Easter 2024.
What dynamics were at play thisyear and what that means for
consumer spending and thebroader economy.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
I'm your co-host, logan Ensign, chief Customer
Officer at Alloy AI and I'm yourhost, Joel Beal, CEO of Alloy
AI.
We'll be back right after this.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
As a consumer brand, you connect with dozens of
external partners and internalsystems to get a complete
picture of your business.
Each one is different.
Alloy AI makes it easy toconnect data from retailers,
e-commerce, supply chainpartners and even your own ERP,
then easily surface insights todrive sales growth.
Every day, brands use Alloy AIto see POS trends, measure
(01:13):
promotion performance and makebetter replenishment decisions
with their retail partners.
That's why we're trusted by BicCrayola, valvoline, melissa,
doug Bosch and many more.
Get a demo at alloyai today.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
Well, Logan, happy belated Easter.
Hope you had a good time.
Did you guys do anythingspecial?
Speaker 1 (01:35):
We did.
You know I've got the threeyoung kids and live near grandma
, so we do lots of egg dyeingand too many presents.
Lots of candy Kids.
I think we're on a sugar rushthe whole weekend.
How about?
Speaker 2 (01:48):
you?
Yeah, similar.
So like you, for those whodon't know, I have two young
kids.
I have twin boys.
So we also went and visitedgrandma and they had a little
Easter egg hunt and one of themis sick today.
So imagine that I think maybe alittle too much sugar.
Yesterday they were prettywired and one of them sick today
.
So imagine that I think maybe alittle too much sugar.
Yesterday they were prettywired and one woke up this
(02:09):
morning and decided he couldn'tmake it to school.
So the weekend is extended forhim.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
There you go, there you go.
Well, it was an especiallyearly Easter this year.
I don't know if that caught youguys off guard.
I think we had to do a littlebit more last minute shopping
and it was a lot colder than wetypically have for Easter here.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Yes, easter was early this year, I guess, coming on
March 31st.
So it's kind of one of thoserare years where Easter is a
March rather than an Aprilholiday, definitely feels
condensed, feels like there'sbeen a lot of holidays, there's
been a lot of spending moneybuying things on that front and,
similar to you I know you're inCalifornia, I'm in the
(02:49):
mountains in Utah.
Here it was snowing, so itdefinitely did not feel
particularly spring-like.
So let's talk about the timingof Easter and what that does
mean for brands, retailers thatare selling during this period.
So, logan, any thoughts thatyou have there?
Speaker 1 (03:10):
Well, I know we were talking earlier about sort of
the industry forecast thatEaster spending would be down
year over year somewhere between5%, 7%, 8%.
And it's the Monday after, sowe're not quite sure what the
results looked like.
And I think a lot of what wasattributed to kind of that year
over year decline is not becauseof broader economic trends but
(03:32):
just a much tighter Easterseason and Easter buying window.
So I think initially we were alittle surprised as we looked at
sort of retail spend trendsthat there would be such a sort
of pessimistic forecast.
But I think given the contextof a much more narrow buying
season, it made sense.
So you know we'll see as theresults come in over the next
(03:54):
few days.
But I know a lot of retailersand suppliers were sort of
bracing for not as positive aseason as they've had over the
last few years.
Speaker 2 (04:04):
Yeah, yeah, that's definitely.
I think we both had that samequestion.
If you look at just broaderretail sales, they're certainly.
I think we're still recoveringfrom that massive COVID spike,
so things have really leveledoff.
And I know as we talk to ourcustomers, people out in the
market, some categories aredefinitely quite soft, others
(04:27):
are still doing okay, butoverall in aggregate, retail
sales are flattish right now itseems like, or maybe even
trending slightly up.
So it was kind of surprising tosee that Easter forecast being
so low.
So I'm with you, I'm curious tosee the numbers.
I think everybody's trying tokeep that pulse on the economy
(04:48):
right now.
How are things doing?
Feels like more cautiousoptimism to me than maybe last
year, but it's still cautious,to say the least.
So let's talk a little bitabout just holidays in general
or major kind of retailpurchasing.
You know kind of seasonalityand I'd be curious to hear from
(05:11):
you, as you have spent a lot oftime in this space.
I mean, what do you see from anEaster versus?
You know kind of the main?
You know holidays, christmastime, et cetera, the Halloweens,
the Valentine's Day.
I mean, what patterns do yousee across these kind of
generally relatively shortwindows events?
Speaker 1 (05:33):
No, I love kind of looking at retail data around
these holiday periods and thenconnecting it back to just the
consumer behavior that we expect.
And so it's pretty interestingto see like, oh okay, why is
that trend happening?
Okay, that makes some sense.
And I think one segment whereall these holidays are relevant
typically is in confections.
(05:53):
Right, so often Halloween,christmas, easter, valentine's,
mother's Day, father's Day,candy often will play a role.
So you can kind of see prettyclearly in those seasonal buying
patterns what that typicallylooks like and what to expect.
And you know, easter is aninteresting one because a lot of
(06:13):
that buying typically happensfairly close to the event, right
.
So you have a fairly narrowbuying window for Easter candy.
People aren't buying Eastercandy, you know, weeks and weeks
in advance.
And this year, you know retailwas just getting out of the
Valentine's sort of seasonallanes that they have and moving
(06:33):
into Easter, and so that buyingwindow is narrow.
When you look at like aChristmas season and you see
kind of those buying patterns,it's a much more extended buying
period.
Right, a lot of people start tobuy, you know, christmas themed
, holiday themed confectionsright after Thanksgiving and
that buying sort of smooths itout a little bit where you can
actually get replenished in timeas you sell and you have a bit
(06:57):
of more extended window.
But I always find itinteresting we were working with
a finance executive at achocolate company and you know
he would always joke about, well, the tightest buying window
there is, chocolate company, andyou know he would always joke
about, well, the tightest buyingwindow there is uh, it's
valentine's day and mother's daythat they see so much of their,
you know, product moving theday of or the day before uh,
which I always thought was waskind of funny to see those
(07:19):
buying patterns, just a reallysevere spike.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Um, those rush to the grocery store and other areas
to buy buy those chocolates yeah, straight, straight up and
straight down, because theholiday hits and that stuff is
put on clearance and they haveto get it off the shelf and, as
you mentioned, really betweenHalloween and even beyond today
and Easter, we just have thesuccession of candy purchasing
(07:45):
holidays right, one afteranother versus, you know, the
summer when you really don't,and I think you see that in the
seasonal patterns and I'm withyou, it's fascinating kind of
that, that particular market inconfectionery.
It's also interesting, asyou're talking of that kind of
lengthened purchasing periodfrom really kind of Halloween
(08:06):
through Thanksgiving and thenChristmas, and I guess we all
complain, or many peoplecomplain, about how early the
Christmas kind of holiday seasonstarts.
But I guess the retailers andthe brands know something that
everybody else doesn't aboutsmoothing that over.
It also is making me think youknow we were just chatting about
(08:28):
the weather, right, and I guessyou know when you have these
very short buying windows,things like that probably can
really affect it, right.
All you need is bad weather andyou screw up an event where you
only have kind of a week,versus in the holidays where you
have many, many weeks ofpurchasing and you know if
something happens, that kind ofdisrupts that.
(08:50):
You have other weeks that canmake up for it versus yeah.
Once Easter's passed, nobody'sbuying Easter egg dyeing kits
again.
Speaker 1 (08:57):
No, I think so, and you can appreciate also
substitution effects for givenproducts, right?
So of course we all want to buythe Easter themed, the
snowflake themed confections,but with these bigger buying
windows ahead of time, you'regoing to substitute for the
everyday product as well.
So I think that this sort ofcompounds, with these very tight
(09:17):
windows of I think it puts morepressure on brands to make sure
they're executing at the storelevel, to make sure that they've
inventoried sufficiently tomeet that demand.
But also, if you over inventorywith those types of products,
the value plummets right Todaynobody's buying the Easter bunny
(09:39):
shaped chocolate, right?
Or they have to be marked downmassively.
So you know, I feel for a lotof our customers and the
suppliers because you reallyhave to hit that target for
these tight buying windows on,you know, execution, so much of
the volume moves right now.
But also you can make some bigcostly mistakes, either being
out of stock or or overstock.
I was telling you earlier, joel,my, my sister, who's 26, right,
(10:00):
so she's not super young, butthere is a candy that she goes
crazy for the sweet tart jellybeans.
And the night before Easter,that Saturday, she came home.
We didn't have any at the house.
She wanted them and she drove30 minutes to our Target Walmart
, walgreens and Dollar General,genuine, looking at everything
(10:21):
and could not find it, and soit's a tricky season to get
right, and and the inventorybalancing I think is is a
fascinating thing.
Speaker 2 (10:32):
Well, let me ask you what may be a simple question
but you talked about, you know,let's use the example of those
jelly beans.
If they have a, it has a veryshort window to sell that before
they have to mark it down, eventhough it's the same jelly bean
and I guess that kind ofopportunity that every brand has
(10:56):
to decide of.
Do I want to create kind of aspecial SKU, particularly for
this event?
Where is that special SKU goingto drive enough incremental
sales that it's worth doing?
Special SKU going to driveenough incremental sales that
it's worth doing, whereas afterthe fact I'm going to have to
mark that down because I've gotto unload it and you know it's.
I wonder the calculus that goeson for a lot of these brands
(11:19):
when it's really obvious thatthat makes sense, you know, and
clearly, considering it's socommon in confectionery, they
must have the data to show thatthat is worth it.
But I wonder, you know, inother areas if it becomes a
little bit more of a toss up.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
Yeah, well, I've run into a couple brands that
actually strategicallyunderproduce that seasonal
holiday product because of thatsubstitution effect and
recognizing, hey, if we run outof stock of that product before
the seasonal sort of end window,that's a better dynamic because
, but I think you really have toevaluate how substitutable is
(11:56):
the product.
Right, when you've got the BeMine hearts, that's probably not
super substitutable.
Right, that's really gearedtowards Valentine's Day and if
you're out of stock therethere's not a natural substitute
, Whereas maybe you look at apremium chocolate bar that is
seasonally branded versus not,you may be not a natural
substitute, Whereas maybe youlook at a premium chocolate bar
that is, you know, seasonallybranded versus not, you may be
more inclined to substitute.
So, again, I just think allthese sorts of buying windows
(12:18):
create really interesting uhcompressed, uh high stakes sort
of dynamics that I always findfascinating to follow.
And, um, I think to your point,there's a lot of conversation
that happens around productstrategy, inventorying, pricing,
to kind of be successfulthrough the holidays.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
Yeah, well, it was interesting to me I was looking
before this at just data aroundwhat the biggest kind of
consumer spending events are,and this is based on the NRF,
the national retail federation,their data.
So number one is that back toschool period, which actually
they show is a little bit biggerthan the winter holidays, which
(12:59):
was a little surprising to me.
They're very close, but, butthose are the top two.
Then you hit mother's day andfather's day, so those, and then
you get into valentine's day,easter, graduation it's quite
high there, um and thenhalloween, which I thought was
lower than expected, and thenyou get independence day and
super bowl.
So I guess we're we're gettingclose.
(13:20):
Well, we're gonna, you know, becoming up on, I guess, mother's
day, father's day period.
Here are the the next uh, bigevents and, as you said, and uh,
we won't provide any socialcommentary here, but apparently
that Mother's Day buying windowman, it's time to step it up is
short, so plan in advance, Ithink, is not the way that the
(13:43):
average man is, so you candifferentiate yourself there.
There you go.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
There you go.
Well, and I found itfascinating this this Easter,
you know we think highconfections, but there are other
you know, verticals, that thatthat sell high volumes around
Easter and so, depending on thesupplier, different parts of the
year and different holidaysare's a little bit more broad in
terms of the impact, but thereare particular holidays that are
(14:14):
hugely impactful for certainbrands that you may not think
about.
I think Valentine's is a goodexample.
Easter is a great example whereit depends on the supplier and
sort of the vertical how big ofan impact it has.
Speaker 2 (14:27):
Yeah, and as you talk about that, I mean I know we
work with a lot of companieswhere that back to school I was
mentioning how big it is andjust massive, you know driver
for certain certain brands.
Right, People want to make suretheir kids are ready to go back
to school and do their best.
So I can understand that as aparent, but, again, pretty
surprising to me to look at thenumbers of just how, how
(14:49):
significant that is.
Again, pretty surprising to meto look at the numbers of just
how significant that is.
So I guess we all get to saveour money during the summer.
That seems to be the periodthat's the most quiet when it
talks about kind of big consumerspending events.
Speaker 1 (15:01):
Although I think all that seasonal chocolate through
the holidays.
Speaker 2 (15:05):
Although I guess that's why they start creating
things like Prime Day to try tomake sure that that we have new
made up made up periods to spendmore.
So retailers pretty good atthis stuff.
Well, logan, it's been a goodchat.
Again, we'll be on the lookoutfor how the data comes in.
But you know, overall feelslike you know, economies doing
(15:27):
okay, ish.
So it will be be interesting inthe coming months if we kind of
continue on that, I think kindof steady but slow upward
trajectory right, absolutelyyeah.
Speaker 1 (15:39):
I think that would be one perspective from myself is
if Easter's a little bit light,we don't get to control what
part of the calendar year itpops up in.
And probably the biggestcontributor to maybe a slightly
down Easter is going to not beso economic but much more, much
more timing.
And so, yeah, I think thatthings are stabilizing and
(16:04):
feeling generally optimistic,despite maybe the returns not
being fantastic for Easter.
From Alloy AI.
This is Shelf Life.
Today we have a special bonusepisode.
My colleague and co-host, joelBeal, ceo and co-founder of
(00:26):
Alloy AI and a recoveringeconomist, will have a
conversation about Easter 2024.
What dynamics were at play thisyear and what that means for
consumer spending and thebroader economy.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
I'm your co-host, logan Ensign, chief Customer
Officer at Alloy AI and I'm yourhost, Joel Beal, CEO of Alloy
AI.
We'll be back right after this.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
As a consumer brand, you connect with dozens of
external partners and internalsystems to get a complete
picture of your business.
Each one is different.
Alloy AI makes it easy toconnect data from retailers,
e-commerce, supply chainpartners and even your own ERP,
then easily surface insights todrive sales growth.
Every day, brands use Alloy AIto see POS trends, measure
(01:13):
promotion performance and makebetter replenishment decisions
with their retail partners.
That's why we're trusted by BicCrayola, valvoline, melissa,
doug Bosch and many more.
Get a demo at alloyai today.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
Well, Logan, happy belated Easter.
Hope you had a good time.
Did you guys do anythingspecial?
Speaker 1 (01:35):
We did.
You know I've got the threeyoung kids and live near grandma
, so we do lots of egg dyeingand too many presents.
Lots of candy Kids.
I think we're on a sugar rushthe whole weekend.
How about?
Speaker 2 (01:48):
you?
Yeah, similar.
So like you, for those whodon't know, I have two young
kids.
I have twin boys.
So we also went and visitedgrandma and they had a little
Easter egg hunt and one of themis sick today.
So imagine that I think maybe alittle too much sugar.
Yesterday they were prettywired and one of them sick today
.
So imagine that I think maybe alittle too much sugar.
Yesterday they were prettywired and one woke up this
(02:09):
morning and decided he couldn'tmake it to school.
So the weekend is extended forhim.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
There you go, there you go.
Well, it was an especiallyearly Easter this year.
I don't know if that caught youguys off guard.
I think we had to do a littlebit more last minute shopping
and it was a lot colder than wetypically have for Easter here.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Yes, easter was early this year, I guess, coming on
March 31st.
So it's kind of one of thoserare years where Easter is a
March rather than an Aprilholiday, definitely feels
condensed, feels like there'sbeen a lot of holidays, there's
been a lot of spending moneybuying things on that front and,
similar to you I know you're inCalifornia, I'm in the
(02:49):
mountains in Utah.
Here it was snowing, so itdefinitely did not feel
particularly spring-like.
So let's talk about the timingof Easter and what that does
mean for brands, retailers thatare selling during this period.
So, logan, any thoughts thatyou have there?
Speaker 1 (03:10):
Well, I know we were talking earlier about sort of
the industry forecast thatEaster spending would be down
year over year somewhere between5%, 7%, 8%.
And it's the Monday after, sowe're not quite sure what the
results looked like.
And I think a lot of what wasattributed to kind of that year
over year decline is not becauseof broader economic trends but
(03:32):
just a much tighter Easterseason and Easter buying window.
So I think initially we were alittle surprised as we looked at
sort of retail spend trendsthat there would be such a sort
of pessimistic forecast.
But I think given the contextof a much more narrow buying
season, it made sense.
So you know we'll see as theresults come in over the next
(03:54):
few days.
But I know a lot of retailersand suppliers were sort of
bracing for not as positive aseason as they've had over the
last few years.
Speaker 2 (04:04):
Yeah, yeah, that's definitely.
I think we both had that samequestion.
If you look at just broaderretail sales, they're certainly.
I think we're still recoveringfrom that massive COVID spike,
so things have really leveledoff.
And I know as we talk to ourcustomers, people out in the
market, some categories aredefinitely quite soft, others
(04:27):
are still doing okay, butoverall in aggregate, retail
sales are flattish right now itseems like, or maybe even
trending slightly up.
So it was kind of surprising tosee that Easter forecast being
so low.
So I'm with you, I'm curious tosee the numbers.
I think everybody's trying tokeep that pulse on the economy
(04:48):
right now.
How are things doing?
Feels like more cautiousoptimism to me than maybe last
year, but it's still cautious,to say the least.
So let's talk a little bitabout just holidays in general
or major kind of retailpurchasing.
You know kind of seasonalityand I'd be curious to hear from
(05:11):
you, as you have spent a lot oftime in this space.
I mean, what do you see from anEaster versus?
You know kind of the main?
You know holidays, christmastime, et cetera, the Halloweens,
the Valentine's Day.
I mean, what patterns do yousee across these kind of
generally relatively shortwindows events?
Speaker 1 (05:33):
No, I love kind of looking at retail data around
these holiday periods and thenconnecting it back to just the
consumer behavior that we expect.
And so it's pretty interestingto see like, oh okay, why is
that trend happening?
Okay, that makes some sense.
And I think one segment whereall these holidays are relevant
typically is in confections.
(05:53):
Right, so often Halloween,christmas, easter, valentine's,
mother's Day, father's Day,candy often will play a role.
So you can kind of see prettyclearly in those seasonal buying
patterns what that typicallylooks like and what to expect.
And you know, easter is aninteresting one because a lot of
(06:13):
that buying typically happensfairly close to the event, right
.
So you have a fairly narrowbuying window for Easter candy.
People aren't buying Eastercandy, you know, weeks and weeks
in advance.
And this year, you know retailwas just getting out of the
Valentine's sort of seasonallanes that they have and moving
(06:33):
into Easter, and so that buyingwindow is narrow.
When you look at like aChristmas season and you see
kind of those buying patterns,it's a much more extended buying
period.
Right, a lot of people start tobuy, you know, christmas themed
, holiday themed confectionsright after Thanksgiving and
that buying sort of smooths itout a little bit where you can
actually get replenished in timeas you sell and you have a bit
(06:57):
of more extended window.
But I always find itinteresting we were working with
a finance executive at achocolate company and you know
he would always joke about, well, the tightest buying window
there is, chocolate company, andyou know he would always joke
about, well, the tightest buyingwindow there is uh, it's
valentine's day and mother's daythat they see so much of their,
you know, product moving theday of or the day before uh,
which I always thought was waskind of funny to see those
(07:19):
buying patterns, just a reallysevere spike.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Um, those rush to the grocery store and other areas
to buy buy those chocolates yeah, straight, straight up and
straight down, because theholiday hits and that stuff is
put on clearance and they haveto get it off the shelf and, as
you mentioned, really betweenHalloween and even beyond today
and Easter, we just have thesuccession of candy purchasing
(07:45):
holidays right, one afteranother versus, you know, the
summer when you really don't,and I think you see that in the
seasonal patterns and I'm withyou, it's fascinating kind of
that, that particular market inconfectionery.
It's also interesting, asyou're talking of that kind of
lengthened purchasing periodfrom really kind of Halloween
(08:06):
through Thanksgiving and thenChristmas, and I guess we all
complain, or many peoplecomplain, about how early the
Christmas kind of holiday seasonstarts.
But I guess the retailers andthe brands know something that
everybody else doesn't aboutsmoothing that over.
It also is making me think youknow we were just chatting about
(08:28):
the weather, right, and I guessyou know when you have these
very short buying windows,things like that probably can
really affect it, right.
All you need is bad weather andyou screw up an event where you
only have kind of a week,versus in the holidays where you
have many, many weeks ofpurchasing and you know if
something happens, that kind ofdisrupts that.
(08:50):
You have other weeks that canmake up for it versus yeah.
Once Easter's passed, nobody'sbuying Easter egg dyeing kits
again.
Speaker 1 (08:57):
No, I think so, and you can appreciate also
substitution effects for givenproducts, right?
So of course we all want to buythe Easter themed, the
snowflake themed confections,but with these bigger buying
windows ahead of time, you'regoing to substitute for the
everyday product as well.
So I think that this sort ofcompounds, with these very tight
(09:17):
windows of I think it puts morepressure on brands to make sure
they're executing at the storelevel, to make sure that they've
inventoried sufficiently tomeet that demand.
But also, if you over inventorywith those types of products,
the value plummets right Todaynobody's buying the Easter bunny
(09:39):
shaped chocolate, right?
Or they have to be marked downmassively.
So you know, I feel for a lotof our customers and the
suppliers because you reallyhave to hit that target for
these tight buying windows on,you know, execution, so much of
the volume moves right now.
But also you can make some bigcostly mistakes, either being
out of stock or or overstock.
I was telling you earlier, joel,my, my sister, who's 26, right,
(10:00):
so she's not super young, butthere is a candy that she goes
crazy for the sweet tart jellybeans.
And the night before Easter,that Saturday, she came home.
We didn't have any at the house.
She wanted them and she drove30 minutes to our Target Walmart
, walgreens and Dollar General,genuine, looking at everything
(10:21):
and could not find it, and soit's a tricky season to get
right, and and the inventorybalancing I think is is a
fascinating thing.
Speaker 2 (10:32):
Well, let me ask you what may be a simple question
but you talked about, you know,let's use the example of those
jelly beans.
If they have a, it has a veryshort window to sell that before
they have to mark it down, eventhough it's the same jelly bean
and I guess that kind ofopportunity that every brand has
(10:56):
to decide of.
Do I want to create kind of aspecial SKU, particularly for
this event?
Where is that special SKU goingto drive enough incremental
sales that it's worth doing?
Special SKU going to driveenough incremental sales that
it's worth doing, whereas afterthe fact I'm going to have to
mark that down because I've gotto unload it and you know it's.
I wonder the calculus that goeson for a lot of these brands
(11:19):
when it's really obvious thatthat makes sense, you know, and
clearly, considering it's socommon in confectionery, they
must have the data to show thatthat is worth it.
But I wonder, you know, inother areas if it becomes a
little bit more of a toss up.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
Yeah, well, I've run into a couple brands that
actually strategicallyunderproduce that seasonal
holiday product because of thatsubstitution effect and
recognizing, hey, if we run outof stock of that product before
the seasonal sort of end window,that's a better dynamic because
, but I think you really have toevaluate how substitutable is
(11:56):
the product.
Right, when you've got the BeMine hearts, that's probably not
super substitutable.
Right, that's really gearedtowards Valentine's Day and if
you're out of stock therethere's not a natural substitute
, Whereas maybe you look at apremium chocolate bar that is
seasonally branded versus not,you may be not a natural
substitute, Whereas maybe youlook at a premium chocolate bar
that is, you know, seasonallybranded versus not, you may be
more inclined to substitute.
So, again, I just think allthese sorts of buying windows
(12:18):
create really interesting uhcompressed, uh high stakes sort
of dynamics that I always findfascinating to follow.
And, um, I think to your point,there's a lot of conversation
that happens around productstrategy, inventorying, pricing,
to kind of be successfulthrough the holidays.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
Yeah, well, it was interesting to me I was looking
before this at just data aroundwhat the biggest kind of
consumer spending events are,and this is based on the NRF,
the national retail federation,their data.
So number one is that back toschool period, which actually
they show is a little bit biggerthan the winter holidays, which
(12:59):
was a little surprising to me.
They're very close, but, butthose are the top two.
Then you hit mother's day andfather's day, so those, and then
you get into valentine's day,easter, graduation it's quite
high there, um and thenhalloween, which I thought was
lower than expected, and thenyou get independence day and
super bowl.
So I guess we're we're gettingclose.
(13:20):
Well, we're gonna, you know, becoming up on, I guess, mother's
day, father's day period.
Here are the the next uh, bigevents and, as you said, and uh,
we won't provide any socialcommentary here, but apparently
that Mother's Day buying windowman, it's time to step it up is
short, so plan in advance, Ithink, is not the way that the
(13:43):
average man is, so you candifferentiate yourself there.
There you go.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
There you go.
Well, and I found itfascinating this this Easter,
you know we think highconfections, but there are other
you know, verticals, that thatthat sell high volumes around
Easter and so, depending on thesupplier, different parts of the
year and different holidaysare's a little bit more broad in
terms of the impact, but thereare particular holidays that are
(14:14):
hugely impactful for certainbrands that you may not think
about.
I think Valentine's is a goodexample.
Easter is a great example whereit depends on the supplier and
sort of the vertical how big ofan impact it has.
Speaker 2 (14:27):
Yeah, and as you talk about that, I mean I know we
work with a lot of companieswhere that back to school I was
mentioning how big it is andjust massive, you know driver
for certain certain brands.
Right, People want to make suretheir kids are ready to go back
to school and do their best.
So I can understand that as aparent, but, again, pretty
surprising to me to look at thenumbers of just how, how
(14:49):
significant that is.
Again, pretty surprising to meto look at the numbers of just
how significant that is.
So I guess we all get to saveour money during the summer.
That seems to be the periodthat's the most quiet when it
talks about kind of big consumerspending events.
Speaker 1 (15:01):
Although I think all that seasonal chocolate through
the holidays.
Speaker 2 (15:05):
Although I guess that's why they start creating
things like Prime Day to try tomake sure that that we have new
made up made up periods to spendmore.
So retailers pretty good atthis stuff.
Well, logan, it's been a goodchat.
Again, we'll be on the lookoutfor how the data comes in.
But you know, overall feelslike you know, economies doing
(15:27):
okay, ish.
So it will be be interesting inthe coming months if we kind of
continue on that, I think kindof steady but slow upward
trajectory right, absolutelyyeah.
Speaker 1 (15:39):
I think that would be one perspective from myself is
if Easter's a little bit light,we don't get to control what
part of the calendar year itpops up in.
And probably the biggestcontributor to maybe a slightly
down Easter is going to not beso economic but much more, much
more timing.
And so, yeah, I think thatthings are stabilizing and
(16:04):
feeling generally optimistic,despite maybe the returns not
being fantastic for Easter.
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