Simply Put
A new podcast from FHN Financial looking at the most important things driving fixed income markets and the macroeconomy. Every episode features experts who give unique insights on topics like the regional banking landscape, commercial real estate, or how to translate Federal Reserve policy into market strategies. Tune in to better understand what’s been moving markets lately, and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts
Episodes
June 13, 2025 • 36 mins
Regulations, snarled supply chains, and the scarring effects of the global financial crisis have all contributed to a nationwide housing shortage over the last fifteen years. As housing unaffordability continues to limit prospective homebuyers, homebuilders must now contend with federal policies that will impact housing demand, labor availability, and costs for building materials. In this episode, we talk with Robert Dietz, Chief E...
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May 29, 2025 • 32 mins
The Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) was designed to
increase banking sector resiliency after the Global Financial Crisis. Some have argued the SLR reduces Treasury market liquidity because the ratio is risk insensitive. Fed officials like Jerome Powell and Michelle Bowman have supported SLR reform, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes changes to the SLR could push Treasury yields down 30-70bp. In this episode, we talk w...
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May 16, 2025 • 36 mins
The dollar has been the de facto global currency since World War II, pulling foreign investment into the US and allowing the federal government to borrow cheaply. A strong dollar also makes export-driven domestic industries less competitive, something the Trump administration is trying to offset through tariffs. A rumored “Mar-a-Lago Accord” would attempt to maintain the benefits of cheap borrowing while weakening the dollar. In th...
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May 2, 2025 • 34 mins
The typical automobile manufactured in North America crosses national borders at least six times before it’s ready to be sold. Tariffs are expected to increase US auto prices by thousands of dollars as companies establish new supply chains and onshore manufacturing with higher production costs. In this episode, we talk with Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist with Cox Automotive, about the complexity of auto manufacturing supply chains...
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April 18, 2025 • 34 mins
The Fed has been able to dismiss the economic risks from deteriorating sentiment by emphasizing the steady unemployment rate and decent job growth over the last seven months. The labor market’s surprising resilience over the last few years will now be tested by tariff-induced production changes, federal workforce layoffs, cuts to federal spending, and tighter immigration enforcement. In this episode, we talk with Guy Berger, Direct...
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April 7, 2025 • 34 mins
President Trump’s latest tariff announcements have thrown global financial markets into a frenzy and increased the uncertainty for the US economic outlook. In this special edition of Simply Put, we talk with Amit Khandelwal, Professor of Global Affairs and Economics at Yale University, about the arguments for and against tariffs, how the 2018 tariffs affected the economy, and what the impacts could be of this year’s much broader an...
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April 4, 2025 • 35 mins
This year’s budget reconciliation bill has the potential to dramatically alter the fiscal relationship between states and the federal government. Some policymakers have proposed repealing the municipal tax exemption that has been at the heart of state financing for over a century. Others have suggested cutting federal spending by shifting the burden for certain outlays to state and local governments. In this episode, we talk with E...
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March 21, 2025 • 38 mins
Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been significant actors in the housing market for nearly a century. Ever since market distress pushed Fannie and Freddie into conservatorship of the Federal Housing Finance Authority in 2008, policymakers have sought to transition the firms back into more privatized roles. Reform discussions have accelerated after the November elections, but any massive ch...
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March 7, 2025 • 53 mins
The pandemic fiscal response supported a much faster recovery in the US than after the financial crisis, but price levels and the federal deficit surged. Households and businesses, tired of high interest rates and cumulative price increases, must now contend with a tariff regime that aims to improve US competitiveness abroad at the risk of higher consumer prices. The Fed meanwhile is trying to restore price stability and preserve t...
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February 21, 2025 • 27 mins
Wildfires swept through parts of southern California last month, causing indescribable human suffering and property destruction. The rising frequency and magnitude of these events, along with the unintended consequences of some well-intentioned regulations, are also placing unique pressure on the insurance market. In this episode, we talk with Matt Palazola, Senior Analyst for Property and Casualty Insurance with Bloomberg Intellig...
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February 7, 2025 • 39 mins
Over the last few years, the technological promise of artificial intelligence (AI) has propelled stock market gains, driven fears of widespread labor market displacement, and helped turn microchip production into a matter of national security. Generative AI models are still in their infancy, but investors and economists are already debating whether its impact will rival that of electricity or the steam engine. There are nonetheless...
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January 24, 2025 • 35 mins
The US Treasury has once again started to use “extraordinary measures” to honor its debt service obligations and avoid breaching the debt ceiling. With these measures expected to run out sometime this summer, any efforts to increase or suspend the debt ceiling will run concurrently with Republican priorities to renew tax cuts and cut government spending. President Trump has voiced support in eliminating the debt ceiling altogether,...
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January 10, 2025 • 47 mins
With slim majorities in the House and Senate, Republicans hope to narrow the fiscal deficit and extend many of the tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). A handful of fiscal hawks and the Senate’s legislative rules could limit the GOP’s ability to accomplish renewal of the TCJA’s biggest provisions. President-elect Trump also campaigned extensively on raising tariffs to increase revenues and protect domestic industry....
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December 27, 2024 • 49 mins
The US economic recovery continued through 2024, but inflation progress has stalled above 2% and the labor market has significantly cooled. Despite the FOMC lowering interest rates by 100bp this year, Fed officials and financial markets head into 2025 uncertain about the pace and magnitude of any future rate cuts. Republicans won back control of the White House and majorities in both halls of Congress, creating a path to significan...
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December 13, 2024 • 36 mins
During the last two years, aggressive monetary policy tightening compressed banks’ net interest margins, placed tremendous strain on banks’ balance sheets, and demonstrated the vulnerabilities from exposure to CRE. The banking sector is hoping that additional Fed easing and less restrictive federal regulations next year will create more favorable conditions for profitability, M&A, and operational flexibility. In this episode, we ta...
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November 29, 2024 • 40 mins
The rising frequency of extreme weather events has put elevated pressure on municipal budgets to pay for relief efforts and prepare for future disasters. Public costs have also increased because the areas seeing the highest population growth can be the most vulnerable to such events. In this episode, we talk with Tom Doe, CEO and Founder of Municipal Market Analytics, about the scope of extreme weather events, how municipal governm...
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November 15, 2024 • 30 mins
Treasuries function as the benchmark asset in bond markets, underscoring their importance in borrowing rates and global financial conditions. As fears of higher future Treasury supply loom large, bond investors look to certain metrics to help understand how well the market is absorbing increasing levels of public debt. Changes in Treasury yields reflect underlying macroeconomic fundamentals, but they are also driven by central bank...
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November 1, 2024 • 49 mins
The economy has consistently defied expectations since 2020, prompting important questions about the soundness of the models used by the Fed and most economists. High inflation persisted much longer than the Fed predicted, inflation fell substantially without significant labor market weakening, and the economy weathered aggressive Fed tightening by growing above its estimated long-run potential. In this episode, Chris Low, Chief Ec...
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October 18, 2024 • 40 mins
With control of the White House and House looking up for grabs, the post-election policy landscape looks highly uncertain only weeks before November 5. The priorities of the new president will run up against an unpredictable amount of Congressional and judicial pushback, creating a wide range of estimates for growth, inflation, federal deficits, and subsequent Fed policy. In this episode, we talk with Lucy Eve, Director of Global M...
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October 4, 2024 • 38 mins
Unlike the markets for Treasury securities and MBS, the market for loans can be opaque and illiquid, making it difficult for financial institutions to optimize their loan portfolios and find appropriate counterparties with which to buy and sell loans. Periods of macroeconomic and interest rate volatility can also complicate the ability to accurately price loans for assets like commercial real estate. In this episode, we talk with M...
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