Slabnomics

Most people walk into a card show with a feeling. A vague sense of what looks good, what seems reasonably priced, what a dealer's enthusiasm is worth. 

This episode is about the gap between walking a show with a framework and walking one with a feeling, and what that gap costs you over time. 

From there, the episode gets concrete. Nobel Prize-winning economist George Akerlof's "Market for Lemons" explains why card...

Topps Chrome Basketball is back, Fanatics owns the licenses to all three major American sports leagues, and the hobby is generating real noise. But this isn't a hype story. It's a supply structure event, and those play out differently than people expect.

In this episode, we walk through the history of Topps Chrome refractors, the gem market cap data behind the LeBron James 2003 rookie, how Panini multiplied parallels from ...

What Gem Market Cap is and why it matters (PSA 10 population × last sale price)

Applying stock market logic (market capitalization) to sports cards

Analysis of 30 Panini Prizm sets (13 basketball, 13 football, 4 soccer)

Total PSA 10 base & silver value across sports (~$75 million)

Basketball vs Football vs Soccer capitalization comparison

The Grubbs Test (3 standard deviation outlier detection)

Jenks Natural Breaks algorithm for tier...

Grading has a structural mispricing that represents one of the most compelling arbitrage opportunities in the sports card market. This episode breaks down the population data, valuation multiples, and market mechanics that explain why.

Key Analysis:

*PSA 10 to BGS 10 Pristine population analysis using 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr as case study
*Why the 39x rarity differential only translates to 1.79x price p...

 I analyzed every trade I made over 10 months in one of my buckets:

311 sales, $55,000 deployed and fed it all into Claude AI to find patterns. 

The result was a complete rebuild of how I think about sports card portfolio construction. 

Using meta-tags to track performance across player tier, set quality, rarity, and card type, I discovered that sets really do matter, and GOATs matter most in soccer. 

The finance brain wanted diversifi...

In this episode of Slabnomics, I pulled every single Panini Prizm base and silver parallel for both players: Lebron James and Lionel Messi. 

I compared PSA 10 populations, last sale prices, and a metric I'm calling Gem Market Cap. What I found shook me.

This episode covers:

How supply, demand & price discovery work differently in cards vs traditional markets
The MLD Valuation Framework (Marke...

 What makes a card valuable—not expensive, but valuable? Matt shares the questions driving his research: Can sets tell us a player's lowest common denominator? Which archetypes have the most seasonal volatility? How do sports card markets mature as alternate assets? From GOAT multipliers to post-hype sleepers, generational prospects to position-specific volatility bands—the frameworks being built behind the scenes at Slabnomic...

After breaking down PSA 9 and Beckett findings on Instagram last week, this episode returns to fundamentals: how to actually make money in sports cards.

You'll Learn:

• The MLD Framework (Market, Legacy, Design) for valuing any card in 60 seconds
• The Rule for Auction vs BIN... and when to break that rule
• The velocity of money principle: fast nickels vs slow dimes
• How to identify demand windows and downshifts
• Speculation vs investm...

Is the PSA 9 dead? I dove into the data across three eras (vintage, modern, ultra-modern) and four sports (baseball, basketball, football, soccer) to find out when PSA 9s hold value, and when they're just an expensive failure certificate.

The numbers are staggering: PSA created 31 million new 10s since 2020, compared to just 5 million total from 1991-2019. In 2025 alone, 6.5 million new PSA 10s entered the market. Whe...

The market doesn't reward truth, it rewards timing.

In this episode of Slabnomics, I break down the concept of DEMAND WINDOWS and why understanding the direction of capital flow is the key to profiting in sports cards in 2026.

Key insights from this episode:
→ Why "a rising tide lifts all boats" is WRONG for card investing
→ The supply absorption capacity concept explained
→ Sport-by-spo...

State of the Hobby 2025

Everyone keeps saying this is 2021 again. They're wrong. And if you're positioning like it's 2021, you're going to get hurt. 

I spent weeks treating the card market like an equity analyst treats a stock: pulling index data, PSA submission numbers from SEC filings, volume metrics by price tier. What I found changed how I'm positioning for 2026. 

In this episode: THE CORE INSIGHT, THE PSA...

PSA has officially acquired Beckett, and this is more than breaking news. It’s a structural shift in the sports card market.

In this episode of Slabnomics, we break down what the PSA–Beckett acquisition actually means for collectors, investors, and flippers. We zoom out to examine where we are in the market cycle, explain why this moment signals consolidation, and then zoom all the way in to the microeconomics of cards and sets...th...

In this episode of Slabnomics, I’m joined by Tyler “T-Pott” Nethercott: Senior VP of Product at Sports Card Investor and one of the key minds behind the Market Movers app.

Tyler walks through his journey from banking, risk analysis, and SAP data projects into building one of the most important sports card data platforms in the hobby. From there, we dive deep into what actually separates successful investors and collectors from every...

Over the last few episodes, I walked through my first full year of selling sports cards...my wins, my mistakes, and what I learned in buying, selling, and grading. Today is different. This one is slower, more reflective, and honestly one of the most important frameworks I’ve shared:

 How time actually works in the sports card market.

In this episode I cover:

• Market cycles & engineered scarcity
  • Why we’re living in an era of ...

We wrap the mini-series with grading—the alchemy of the hobby when used correctly. I share the actual ledger: 1,127+ cards graded, $20K+ in fees/shipping, PSA (525 cards; ~$11.7K) and SGC (602 cards; ~$9.5K), and why I’d only re-submit ~21% (PSA) and ~17% (SGC) today. You’ll get a pre-grading checklist, a tier/upcharge strategy that protects cash flow, and post-mortems on failed CGC→PSA and BGS→PSA arbitrage.

You’ll learn

• When a ...

Following Part 1 (buying), this episode breaks down the sell-side of my first year—$98K on eBay—and the exact lessons that moved the needle: how to seed early feedback, how to structure PWE vs. bubble mailer shipping (and when to use non-machinable stamps), the true cost of fees & promoted listings, and a negotiation framework so you stop caving under pressure. We also cover budgets to avoid forced sales, when wax/singles make ...

In this opener to my “Year 1” mini-series, I break down everything I learned on the buy-side of the sports-card game—what worked, what wasted money, and how to buy with exits in mind. From the Spain/Messi spark to my first PSA submission (and why it lost), we cover pre-grading, avoiding “rarity for rarity’s sake,” the meaning of liquidity, negotiating bulk discounts, timing buys around seasonal cycles, and using hype as a catalyst—...

sourcing at the nucleus, grading for ROI, and dodging fakes.

I unpack the full playbook from my Barcelona trip to find Messi rookies: why Campió (Catalan) issues matter vs Campeón (Spanish), the true 71 Bis story (third-edition BIS replacement → lower print + set-builder demand), and how Europe’s historic grading friction (pre-PSA EU) created today’s raw opportunity. I walk through Facebook ad targeting (40–55 men), peñas/outreach, ...

Welcome to Slabnomics, where we help sports card enthusiasts make better financial decisions about sports cards.

In this episode, host Matthew Worley sits down with Anthony from @Sacccards to talk about the soccer card market - Why this world cup is different from the last one held in America in 1994, what changes he sees as a coach and consultant for youth soccer, and how that meshes with his love of soccer card collecting.

They div...