August 1st, 2025 | Worrisome Jobs Report, June Job Decline, Strong GDP Growth, Bank Scam Liability, Roth Account Perks, Hasbro, Inc. (HAS), Chipotle Mexican Gill, Inc. (GMG) & Baker Hughes (BKR)

Should you be concerned by the jobs report?

The July jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls grew by 73k, which missed the estimate of 100k. Unfortunately, the news got even worse as you dug into the report. The prior two months saw major negative revisions as June was revised from 147k to just 14k and May was revised from 125k to just 19k. This amounted to a total negative revision of 258k when looking at the two months combined. Another negative was job growth in the month of July was heavily reliant on health care & social assistance as the category added 73.3k jobs in the month. This means that this category essentially carried the report as the total jobs created in the month topped the full headline number. There were some other areas that saw growth with retail trade adding 15,700 jobs, leisure and hospitality adding 5k jobs, and construction adding 2k jobs. Unfortunately, there were more categories than normal that saw declines with information falling by 2k jobs, government was down 10k jobs, manufacturing declined by 11k jobs, and professional and business services declined by 14k jobs. While all this sounds negative, I still wouldn’t panic over this report. The main reason is the unemployment rate remains historically low at 4.2% and layoffs have not materially increased. I would even make the claim that the unemployment rate is healthier than it appears. Of those that are unemployed, the average weeks unemployed now totals 24.1 and those that have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks jumped to 1.82 million, which is about one-quarter of all the unemployed. If you have been out of work more than 27 weeks, how hard have you really been looking or are some of those really just retired now? It seems we are in an environment where companies are keeping their employees and limiting new hires. With more clarity on the trade deals and tariffs now, that could help stabilize the labor market, but my main concern is are there enough qualified candidates to truly fuel job growth? A large problem we have discussed in the past is an aging population that has seen assets climb tremendously, which has enabled many near retirement age the luxury to retire. While I don’t want to say this is a negative, the working age population or those between 25 & 54 remained near historical highs around 83%. One positive in the report I didn’t discuss yet was the fact that wage inflation came in above expectations at 3.9%, which is nice considering the decline in inflation we have seen this year. While again I may sound negative on this report, I want to be clear that there is no reason to be overly concerned yet, I would be interested to see how the next few reports look before being worried about a potential recession in the near term.

 

Job openings declined in the month of June

The June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, commonly referred to as the JOLTs report, showed job openings declined to 7.4 million, down 275,000 from the prior month. While this may sound problematic, it is important to remember this is still a historically healthy level for job openings and it comes against a back drop of a historically low unemployment rate. I have said this for many months, but I believe there is even further room for job openings to decline without there being a problem for the labor market. Taking that concept one step further, I would be quite surprised to see growth in job openings from here. The main reason for that is there just aren’t enough people to fill those openings especially since it appears many companies are choosing to retain employees rather than look for new ones. I say this because layoffs continue to remain quite low. In the month of June, they totaled 1.6 million and really since 2021 they have maintained that level with the average monthly total since January 2021 standing around 1.57 million. If we look pre-covid, from December 2000 (when the data first started) to February 2020, layoffs averaged 1.91 million per month. Even though you will always hear news about various companies implementing layoffs, I believe we remain in a healthy labor market with good unemployment and low layoffs. This healthy labor market remains one of the key reasons for why I believe the economy will remain in a good spot for the foreseeable future.

 

GDP came in stronger expected, another good sign for the economy!

While Q2 gross domestic product, also known as GDP, jumped 3% and easily topped the estimate of 2.3%, the numbers were not as strong as the headlines indicate. With the tariffs having a large impact on trade and business inventories, this report is the opposite of Q1 when actual results were much better than the headlines showed. In Q1 companies were likely trying to get ahead of tariffs so they were trying to load up on inventory and import a lot more foreign goods than normal. This led to a 37.9% increase in imports during Q1 which subtracted 4.66% from