Episode Transcript
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Alex (00:00):
Dave flags tariff fallout
crushing soybean exports to China, while
Jerremy notes the clown-show bailoutspropping Wall Street over farmers.
If food deflation hides deeper ruralpain, how long until the system breaks?
Jerremy (00:14):
We needed.
We need some more energy out there.
We needed some bigger energy grid, so webought a whole bunch of Lithium America,
and that's actually relatively rare.
Again, in my expertise, I haven'tseen the US government directly buying
a bunch of individual stocks before
Dave (00:32):
So what do you think
Jerremy (00:33):
and then talking about
Dave (00:34):
Yeah, because there's
something to be said about having
a so sovereign wealth fund, right?
Like Alaska does it with theiroil, leases, everybody in Alaska
gets a check in a lot of countries.
They do have sovereign wealthfunds that do invest in
things, and make things happen.
(00:54):
There's something to be said for that.
But on the other hand, giventhe country I'm in right now is
that it's the cronies that get.
The investments and itdistorts capitalism, right?
So thing people and things are proppedup not for good products or good
reasons, or national security stuff.
(01:14):
It's, because they're buddy buddies.
Jerremy (01:16):
That's exactly correct.
So it's interesting.
Yeah.
The Sovereign Wealth Fund.
Sure.
Absolutely.
Like El Salvador their SovereignWealth fund is Bitcoin.
He's buying all the Bitcoin he can, likethat's where all of his, yeah, that's
where all of his capital and all ofthe, that's where all the money's going,
Dave (01:34):
Huh.
Jerremy (01:35):
which is pretty nifty.
So that's been workingvery well for El Salvador.
And again, I don't think it's a horriblething, but what is extremely interesting
is like it's gonna keep happening andit's gonna keep driving the market higher.
And we are, we're going to get, it'sinevitable at this point, but we are
going to get into a pretty severe bubble.
(01:58):
And we all know that music's gonna stopat some point, just the way it works.
And I just don't know whenthat's gonna be, but I don't
think it's any time soon-ish.
I think we still have alittle bit of ways to go.
Yep.
I still think we havea little bit of ways to
Dave (02:11):
Wow.
Really?
Wow.
Jerremy (02:13):
Yeah, we will absolutely
get another correction in
the market sooner than later.
Dave (02:18):
But is it gonna
be the kind of, yeah.
Do you think it's gonna be the correctionthat we actually need to get back
to, human valuations That make sense?
Because they don't, the entirestock market is essentially fueled
by AI and tech companies, right?
That's where most of the valuationis, and companies are already saying,
(02:39):
at least what I'm reading or hearing,maybe you know you know better than me,
but you know that companies aren't yetseeing the return on investment from ai.
That it's expensive in some ways.
And yeah, they see a lot of benefitson the low end the new workers,
which is not good for people whoare just getting outta college.
(03:00):
Or they're, they can delay hiring.
For any number of fields, we know thatit's gonna completely destroy them.
Wipe 'em out.
I, but we will do a series, I promiseeverybody's listening to this on ai.
I, that is, that I think is gonna be likethe, I am, I'm a very dark on ai, so I
can't wait for us to dig in on that one.
But just case in point, right?
(03:22):
These AI companies are putting datacenters in all of these communities
all over the United States inorder to buy cheap electricity.
And they're pumping a lot of moneyinto the state and local governments
to say, Hey we're gonna, we'regonna suck all your electricity out.
And, we aren't gonna pay anything for it.
(03:44):
And the states go, okay, no problem.
And so the people who actually livethere are coming up on, on bills
that are like two and three timeshigher than they've been in the past.
Because these grids and these powerstations can't keep up with all of
the money that's needed to, do your.
(04:06):
Do your funny video, me memes ofthe house leader, in sombreros.
That, costs like thousands andthousands of homes worth of electricity.
And so there's developing a huge backlashbecause, they, these companies can go
in and buy the local representativesand basically say, Hey, we're gonna,
(04:27):
we're gonna put all these jobs in withthis data center in your backyard.
Little does anybody realize I was inthis back, back in my day, data centers.
Nobody works at a data center.
They're huge, but, they'rerun by handful of people.
It's not thousands of jobs.
It's there might be a thousand jobs, tobuild one of those things, but then it's
(04:48):
all gone and it's run, it's all automated.
Jerremy (04:51):
correct.
Dave (04:52):
yeah, they're sucking
up all the electricity and
we're getting, f fart videos
Jerremy (04:57):
Uhhuh?
Dave (04:58):
And then your job goes
away because, it can be done.
If you're not turning a wrench, forget it.
Like your job's gone.
I dunno.
Okay.
So the entire marketis built on AI bubble.
We know this.
Companies are already saying,eh, return's not there.
Except for we're not hiring as much,which is a drag on the economy.
So now what?
(05:18):
Like you say we have a ways togo, but like when this I feel like
I'm the one taking crazy pills.
Jerremy (05:25):
Yeah.
Yeah.
We the, again, relatively unfortunatenews, truthfully, in my opinion,
is this, just the simple fact thatwe do, we just haven't reached
the crazy high euphoria stage.
Totally.
And,
Dave (05:41):
it drives a wealth effect, right?
People feel richer, so itkeeps the economy going.
Jerremy (05:45):
Yep.
Dave (05:46):
There is some cracks though.
I did some research.
I did my research.
There are some cracks and it's intravel and leisure, which is like
one of the first ones to bend.
And you're in the center ofthe apocalypse on that one.
Las Vegas is it's dark there,like it's, it is not good.
I don't know if you've been downto the strip, but it is ghost
town from what all the data says.
Jerremy (06:07):
Nope, that's, yeah.
Uhuh that I, I agree.
I have read that data.
I have, I've read it.
And then I go outside.
I'm like, I don't know what thatdata is doing or how that's coming.
Like it is slammed, dude.
Slammed.
Oh
Dave (06:23):
I'm gonna come visit
you in a couple of weeks and
Wanna see what's going
Jerremy (06:26):
like we're gonna,
we're gonna go out this weekend.
I got a big conference.
I'm be hosting here and.
40 people are coming from allover the country and it's gonna be
absolutely packed everywhere we go.
And you can't get dinner reservations,you can't obviously we're, we
booked everything in advance, butit's, oh man, it's an absolute
thunderstorm of people everywhere.
(06:47):
Yeah, I get, the data is saying thatlike the tourism is slowing down.
I'm like, man, if this is slow.
I don't know.
I don't wanna know what fast is like.
It's pretty crazy.
So having fun with it, man, justenjoying the, seeing it firsthand of
just what really is going on out thereand not necessarily in Vegas, but just
in the economy because the way I seethis right now, yeah, overall markets,
(07:13):
pretty much everything that we have.
It really does seem like we aregoing to keep going for a bit.
We will have some type of correctionand it will feel fast and quick,
but it will get bought up and thenwe'll just kinda keep going higher.
The AI episodes, peopleare gonna love that.
That's gonna be really fun becauseagain, there's a lot of like scarcity
(07:36):
slash abundance conversations aregonna come from that as well, meaning
just the mindset of this can be reallybad, or this can be really good.
There is a lot of opportunitythat can happen here.
There's a lot of wealth, there'sa lot of speed, there's a lot of
access, there's a lot of ability,there's a lot of cost savings.
There's tons of opportunitiesthat are available.
(07:57):
And there's a lot that can go verywell, very right, very correctly.
So we'll just kinda have to seeif that's what ends up happening.
Dave (08:05):
there is a under the radar thing
that I actually put in our little report
here that I want you paying attention to,
Jerremy (08:13):
Okay.
Dave (08:14):
and it has to do with the
US food production, so all of
these tariffs that Trump put on.
Have really affected USagriculture and the big one
that's showing up is in soybeans.
So soybean harvest just happenedand we are sitting on the
world's supply of soybeans.
(08:35):
Soybeans aren't really eaten in the UnitedStates, if to tofu, that's what you get.
It's almost all exported andChina is the number one importer.
They basically buy all of our soybeans.
And they haven't bought any, zerobecause of the tariffs and they've
been sourcing 'em other places.
Biggest one that they sourced from wasArgentina, but Argentina's prices were
(08:59):
high, and so everybody's waiting forthe US to come in with their harvest.
But then we bailed out Argentina like acouple of weeks ago, and the first thing
that Argentina did, first thing thatMalay did was drop the prices of soybeans.
And so China swooped in, bought upall of the soybeans in Argentina,
(09:21):
so we got that going for us.
So American farmers arestill sitting on soybeans.
By the way, the samething's happening on beef.
We export a lot of our beef and we do itto China, and China's bought none of it.
Jerremy (09:33):
Huh.
Dave (09:34):
And so what's gonna happen?
We're gonna see some deflation,certainly in US food, right?
Like it's gonna get cheaper.
Beef's gonna get cheaper.
The feed for livestock is gonna go reallycheap because you got all these soybeans.
Jerremy (09:50):
Yep.
Dave (09:51):
But we did the tariffs,
then we bail out Argentina.
Argentina swooped in, andnow we're gonna bail out the
farmers using the tariff money.
Like it feels like we'rebeing run by clowns.
Like
On top of it, like the Doge team theygutted us Department of Agriculture.
So even if we did cut a check toall the farmers, it's not actually
even a cutting a check to farmers.
(10:12):
They're actually cutting a check toWall Street who backs all the farmers.
They're check cutting a check toinsurance companies and the banks.
So none of it actuallygoes to the farmers.
It goes to the giantagricultural companies.
Sure.
Bill Gates get a check.
We'll get a check from this, but theydon't have anybody at the US Department
of Agriculture to actually do thechecks and the government shut down.
So
Jerremy (10:31):
Clown show.
Dave (10:32):
clown show.
So this is what I wanteverybody to pay attention to.
'cause you and I have been talking aboutinflation a lot and a lot of it is in.
Our groceries.
Boy, I think we're gonna seesome deflation in and some
spiraling out on food prices.
We probably need some of it, butit's gonna cause a lot of heartache
(10:55):
and a lot of unusual thingshappening in the United States.
So I think big changes afootin the agricultural space.
So pay attention.
Let's see what happens with with food.
And I predict beef.
If you're, if you're like, ah,I'm buying hamburger this week
because I can't get a steak.
Yeah I get it.
I hear you.
See if you can buy a steakand in four or five weeks,
Jerremy (11:15):
Just, you mean like the
price is gonna be astronomical?
Huh?
Dave (11:18):
The price is gonna go down.
So nobody's buying them.
Jerremy (11:22):
Fascinating.
We need some decoupling ofprices, that's for sure.
Prices are very high, but it is just'cause we're losing we're losing
the soybean apocalypse is happening.
It is happening.
Dave (11:36):
All right.
What's going on online?
I continuing my streakof not being online.
Jerremy (11:42):
Proud of you.
Well done.
Dave (11:43):
Appreciate it,
Jerremy (11:45):
Yeah.
Dave (11:46):
but in preparation for
Jerremy (11:47):
for your, yeah, it's usually
good for your health to just take a break.
Dave (11:52):
taking a break, I'm listening
to the new Dan Brown book.
It's fun, good times.
So what's going on in line?
I got something here.
Some Netflix animated series,dead End Paranormal Park.
Did that pop up for you?
Did you
Jerremy (12:06):
Not the paranormal park.
I do know that it featured trans youth andthere was a lot of, the Libs of TikTok had
a big viral post igniting boycott callsand debates on kid media indoctrination
Trump, sorry, not Trump apologies.
Musk was like on October 1st.
He was like cancel Netflixfor the health of your kids.
(12:27):
That's pretty much what he said.
And, Netflix is down since this,since that post, but not as
much as people are leading it
Dave (12:35):
Off record highs, right?
Jerremy (12:37):
Exactly from the highest price
in human history in July, but the last
week it's down two and a half percent, 3%.
So it's, yeah, I don't know if that'scausing it, but approach for me, and
again, I think this is somewhere else onhere as well, about the, what happened in
Tennessee with the gender affirming care.
The Supreme Court League was over.
(13:00):
That was something about Tennessee, right?
Dave (13:02):
Yeah, it says Tennessee Ban on
gender affirming care for minor six three
ruling bolstering similar state lawsand intensifying the national debate on
parental rights versus youth autonomy.
Yeah, it's just sayingyou can't trans kids.
I think, this deserves its own seriesthat we gotta, really dive into.
Jerremy (13:21):
Fu future episode
on trans, the trans movement
incoming, is what you're saying?
Dave (13:29):
Yeah, there's a lot here.
I think it's, certainly a very,it's a difficult topic, right?
There's a lot of energyon both sides on this one.
So I think tackling it ina very respectful way would
I think really benefit.
Hearing what's going on.
I was raised by a gay man.
So I have some perspectiveon, on this space.
(13:50):
And what I'm really heartened byis because I, being raised by a gay
man, I have gay people in my family.
My, my stepfather is certainly gay.
And you know what I've beenhearing from that group?
Is, that the LGB part of L-G-B-T-Q,the LGB part is they're standing
(14:14):
up and saying, Hey, can we, youneed to separate the LGB from the
T, and the Q because fundamentallywe're, we're apples and oranges.
The T side is all about.
Identity and who you feel you areand right body and all of that stuff.
(14:36):
It's wrapped up in a lot of mentalhealth issues and social issues
and, that's a that's its own thing.
And the LGB side and what it's alwaysbeen has been about who you love.
That's it.
Like it's very basic.
It's okay, like we are beingdiscriminated on the basis of who we love.
So let's fix that.
(14:57):
And that was always the struggleon the LGB side, T side.
Whole different thing.
It is not the same thing.
In fact, I, many of mygay friends and family.
See the trans movement asbeing extremely homophobic.
And I think, that might be asurprise to a number of folks.
(15:19):
So I, I really want to, I want to, Iwanna do this series on this when we
get around to it to be like, okay, wehear a lot of things in the narratives,
but let's talk to people who are.
Lesbian, bisexual, and gayand how they're lumped in.
And let's talk to trans people that,let's talk to de Transitioners.
And the people who have been in mylife and are in my life, who are in
(15:40):
the trans community are absolutelyhorrified by trans activists.
Jerremy (15:45):
So many cool things to look
forward to, man, I'm excited about talking
about yeah, not only that, 'cause again, Ithink we need a place that's open, that's
transparent, that's vulnerable, that'ssafe, that's collective, that's intuitive.
We also need some opposing partiesand some opposing sides to just debate
it out some good future conversationsin that we can at least put trans
(16:06):
rights, what that looks like.
I noticed definitely some divisionsout there with the T's and the Q's
and the G's and the B's and L's.
They're like, they're notgetting along right now.
Definitely some polarization.
Dave (16:18):
I think we can have respectful
conversations on it and I'm looking
forward to that conversation.
So you, those of you listening,we're in our voting session.
We have a couple of reallycool guests coming up.
We're just getting ready for them.
We're doing this episode this week inorder to account for their schedules.
And so we're coming back into, to voting.
You'll hear that beginningnext week again, but then.
(16:40):
We're looking for our next topic,and so we're we're debating
internally what it might be.
Maybe it's the crisis of boys andyoung men in the United States.
We can talk about guns and gun control andthe nature of guns in the United States.
Jerremy (16:53):
So just the gun
debate, just gun conversation I
think will be really exciting.
Dave (16:58):
What do we call it?
Is it right to call it gun control?
I think gun advocateswould bristle at that?
Is it just guns in America
Jerremy (17:06):
The second amendment,
Dave (17:08):
oh, so that's this week on solving
America's problems with Dave and Jerremy.
What do we als alwayssay, give us five stars.
Share this episode.
That always helps us out, right?
Jerremy (17:20):
Thanks for tuning in.
Thanks for being here.
We will be back on future episodes.
Make sure to give thisone a five star rating.
Share it with your friends and family.
We are on every single stationthat lists podcast everywhere
and until the next episode.
We love you.
We see you.
We are you.
(17:41):
you.