May 7, 2025 • 19 mins
The markets have been on a wild ride since the presidential election, and we're taking a moment to check in on how our predictions have played out over the past six months. Remember when we projected gold would see an immediate dip after the election before continuing its climb toward $3,200? Well, that initial prediction was spot on – gold dropped about $200 per ounce that first week – but then it dramatically outperformed expectations, recently flirting with $3,500 before settling around $3,392. The precious metal has established a strong floor between $2,900 and $3,200, suggesting substantial staying power despite potential volatility ahead.
Our Bitcoin forecast proved remarkably accurate. From its election night price of $76,000, Bitcoin surged past $100,000 by early December – exactly as predicted – before experiencing the volatility we warned about, dropping to $77,000 in early April. Now trading around $96,600, Bitcoin has delivered an impressive 29% return over six months. For those with the stomach to ride the cryptocurrency roller coaster, we expect Bitcoin to finish 2025 above $90,000, potentially touching $120,000-$125,000 during the year. Meanwhile, the Dow Industrial Average has essentially treaded water, currently at 41,142 compared to 41,800 on election night, after following the typical post-election pattern of an initial surge followed by a new-year dip.
The real opportunity lies in recognizing that market chaos creates openings for strategic investors. When buyers and sellers are fearful but you maintain a fundamental calmness based on tested strategies, you can capitalize while others hesitate. This is especially true in real estate, where focusing on cash flow rather than property valuations provides protection against market swings. Remember that markets always recover – just as they did after 2008 when experts claimed the Dow would never break 10,000 again. We're excited to bring you interview-focused episodes throughout May, featuring discussions on personality profiling, book showcases, and more. Subscribe on your favorite platform to join us for these conversations and continue navigating these fascinating market developments together.
www.stephanpiscanopodcast.com
To Follow Us On YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VacationWealthPartners
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, guys.
Thank you so much and welcome.
This is Stephan Piscano withthe Stephan Piscano podcast.
Happy belated Cinco de Mayo,guys.
We are into May and I justcan't believe how fast this year
is going by.
We're almost halfway into 2025.
As always, if you have notsubscribed yet, this is a great
(00:23):
month for you to do so.
They either join us on Spotifyor Apple podcast or, of course,
youtube, where you can find usat at Stefan Piscano, which I'm
putting most of my sports stuffup on that YouTube channel and
(00:58):
just try not to mix the two.
And then if you want more ofour traditional stuff, where
we're talking about real estateinvestment strategies from a
high level perspective goldprices, precious metals in
general, even some crypto andjust motivational
entrepreneurial stuff then you'dwant to go to at Vacation
Wealth Partners.
And then for all of my savvyinvestors in my networks I know
there's several, thankfully,that are more interested in the
meat and potatoes we do showcaseactual partnership
opportunities on that channel aswell.
You see some of the luxuryvacation rentals that Vacation
Wealth Partners is investing inand even how you can partner
with us.
So grateful for everybody thattakes the time to do that.
(01:19):
It is free, it is quick and itmeans a lot.
So thank you sincerely for yourpartnership and all you do
there.
I just wanted to do a quicklittle showcase for what we've
got coming up in May, becauseI'm gonna call this interview
month.
Every episode you're gonna seeunless there's some surprise
thing that happens in themarkets or precious metals,
(01:42):
sports, whatever that I pop onand do a quick one for Every
full-length episode you're goingto see this month is going to
be an interview with some veryexciting, talented people.
Next week we're going to have ashowcase of a book, the first
author showcase that we've done.
That's a fun one looking at thehistory of the young James Bond
(02:03):
.
The book is called the YoungJames Bondsman.
Good friend of mine that I'veknown for almost 20 years wrote
that, so I was excited to havehim on.
And then last week I justrecorded a great episode that
I'm really excited about with areal close friend and partner of
mine.
That talks about personalityprofiling using the DISC system
and we spent about two and ahalf hours just really walking
(02:26):
through how you as a salespersonif you're a realtor, listening
to this, even as an investor,trying to get a deal done how
you can know more about your ownpersonality type, use that to
your benefit and how you canlearn about other people's
personality types and use thatto help get a deal accomplished
as well, or just better yourrelationships personally.
So thank you guys so much Again.
(02:48):
This is a quick little helloepisode, just a little check-in,
so I'm really not going to editthis one much, if at all.
I just missed you guys, likealways.
So I wanted to check in.
We're now more than 100 daysinto Trump's presidency.
We did an election nightspecial before we knew the
results, where we made ourprojections for what we thought
(03:08):
would happen in some of the maincategories.
I'll put a link to where youcan go back and listen to that
episode and you can compare howwe did with how your predictions
penciled out.
And then we're going to just doa little check in here now
about six months actually morethan six months now, six months
and one day after the electionand after we made those
(03:30):
projections, we're going to seewhat we said we thought would
happen in each category, what'sactually happened and then maybe
a little idea of what webelieve might happen moving
forward so you can see on thescreen here I'm going to start
with gold, just because it'sprobably the one that I followed
the closest and been the mostinvested in from an emotional
standpoint, obviously, from atangible standpoint, I'm
(03:51):
invested in real estate and Ihave very little gold.
But back on election, thischart's actually only going back
six months, so we need thatextra day because that's
important.
Six months.
So we need that extra daybecause that's important.
So we go back to November 4th.
We had gold at 2746 an ouncegoing into the election.
(04:16):
At that time we told you thatwe thought if Trump won that
what would be most likely tohappen is you'd see an immediate
dip.
There would still be some rapidinflation that would need to
take place, so we thought itwould continue to ultimately
rise but probably would leveloff quite a bit.
So this is what I'm going tosay that even though we've been
(04:38):
bullish on gold for years, I'vedone countless webinars and
podcast episodes talking aboutprecious metals and I was
telling everybody.
We looked at the historical datagoing all the way back to the
1940s and mainly we focused onthe rapid inflation period that
we saw from 1976 to 1980.
We told you in October, we toldyou last November on election
(05:01):
night and we've told you everyepisode pretty much we've talked
about it since that if wemodeled the same historical data
and looked at what we sawhappen in 1976 to 1980, where
gold went up about 400% overthat four-year period and really
had a huge boom in an 18-monthperiod 79, going into 81, we
(05:23):
told you that gold would end upat about $3,200 an ounce.
So I'm going to say on this onewe were both right and wrong,
because we were correct.
You can see, right after theelection, just as we projected,
we saw a massive $200 roughlyannounced drop in that first
week.
But then, however, we huddledaround $2,600, $2,700 going
(05:45):
through December and we startedthe year at 2618 per ounce on
December 30th going into 2025.
Then, once the tariff action gotgoing, that's when it was off
to the races here, you see, wehit 3000 for the first time in
(06:07):
mid-March, shot back down under3000 the beginning of April and
then we flirted with 3500 just acouple of weeks ago, which is
insane.
So the reason that I'm going tosay that we were partially
wrong on that is it'soutperformed what I thought it
might do, but it's stillfollowing the same trends.
Now, in the last time we did acheck-in about a month ago on
(06:28):
this when it was in the high3,400s and you can see at the
time I'm recording this, it'snow $3,392.70 an ounce for gold
right now.
We told you that our bestprojections and educated guess
would be that it was going tocontinue to be a roller coaster.
It was probably a good time tomaybe sell a little bit in that
(06:49):
34 to 35000 to $3,500 range andthen it would probably level off
and then continue to rise overthe next three to six months.
But at some point this year andI still believe this is
probably a pretty good guesssome point this year, we believe
you're likely going to see a$400 to $6 an ounce drop, which
(07:11):
you could make the argument thatthat's already happening right
now, since we're down about $100an ounce drop, which you know
you could make the argument thatthat's already happening right
now, since we're down about $100an ounce the last couple of
weeks here, since we did ourlast episode on this.
But having said that, I dobelieve, if you look at the
historical data, which, again,none of what we've done here has
been based on tariffs, none ofit has been on emotion, it's all
on historical, factualstatistics, the data going back
(07:39):
again, like I said, nearly 100years of inflation data,
economic data to project outwhat we believe gold has done in
the past and it'll probably dothe same in the future typically
, and it's done that, thankfully, so far.
That's why, when we weretelling you it would likely go
to 3,200 an ounce, when it was1,700, 1,800 an ounce, we've
seen that happen.
I do believe, based on thatdata alone, that there is a
strong floor for gold in thevery high 2000s, low 3000s.
(08:03):
So in that 2,900 to 3,200 anounce range, there's probably a
very strong floor that it neededto catch up to, based on the
historical inflation rates, andit has caught up to and
surpassed now.
So, even if we do see a littlevolatility, or a lot of
volatility, and it goes backdown, we believe it's likely
that it'll stay above 3000 forthe rest or majority of the year
(08:24):
.
So that's our two cents on gold.
The one that I think that wenailed the most accurate with
our election night predictionswas Bitcoin.
So at the time that we recordedthat, bitcoin was 76,000.
We told you that, based on justthe excitement of an election,
(08:48):
regardless of who won, that wewere probably going to see an
uptick.
When you factor in the factthat Trump and his family are
very pro crypto and I think youknow, they even announced not
only a pro crypto presidency buttheir own crypto products
exchange NFTs whatever it may bewith the family there.
(09:09):
So that was obvious.
I mean, that wasn't hard tomake a guess that you would see
an immediate pop.
And we did.
We told you we thought it wouldhit 100,000.
And I told you at that time ifit did hit 100,000, I'd be
selling.
Actually, we did an episoderight here on December 5th when
it was 102,000 plus.
You can go back and listen tothat.
I told you if it was me justbecause I've been burned by
(09:31):
crypto so many times I wouldhave been selling my Bitcoin.
I don't have any Bitcoin, butif I did, I would have been
selling it right there, but Idid tell you I thought that we
would have an opportunity to buyback in, just because it's so
volatile.
So I'm going to say that wepretty much nailed this one
right on the nose here, becauseon December 5th 2024, when we
made that episode, you can seeit above $100,000.
(09:52):
On December 5th 2024, we madethat episode you can see it
above 100,000.
Then it dropped all the waydown at one point to 80,000 at
the end of February, going intoMarch 2025.
Then it's been a roller coaster, as it always is, ever since.
You had it actually hit a lowof 77,000 on April 7th, and so
this is the buying range that Italked about back in December,
(10:14):
that if you sold at that 100K,you'd probably have an
opportunity to buy back in inthe 70s or 80s, and that was
that period right here.
So if you did that, then you'reprobably pretty happy about it,
because now it's shooting backup.
You can see we've spent themajority of the last month above
90,000.
At the time we record this,we're at 96,600 per Bitcoin,
(10:38):
which is still insane to look at.
I do believe this is a goodholding number.
Right here, we saw thevolatility that we expected to
see going right at the beginningof Trump's presidency win, and
then the volatility that weexpected to see going right at
the beginning of Trump'spresidency win, and then the
volatility going down amidst allof the tariff chaos and all
(10:59):
that throughout March and April.
Now it's found its footing tosome extent.
Obviously, crypto is alwaysgoing to be volatile, whether
it's going up or going down, but, as you can see by this chart,
if you bought Bitcoin six monthsago, you're up 29.27%, which is
about a 60% annualized return.
(11:19):
So you're probably pretty happy.
You'd be even more happy if youcan hold on to that, which is
always the thing with crypto.
You can have I mean, I've had200% gains on crypto in a day,
but it's can you hold on to it.
That's the most important thing.
So I'm still you know at thispoint, I'm not a huge fan of
Bitcoin.
I think, if you already havesome, I'd recommend holding,
(11:40):
maybe offload a little bit,depending on what your entry
point is.
But I would be, at this point,pretty shocked if Bitcoin did
not in the year above 90,000.
Pretty shocked if Bitcoin didnot end the year above 90,000.
And I wouldn't be surprised ifit even jumped up and tapped 120
, 125 at some point during 2025.
So there's still a lot of roomthere and, as is anything that's
(12:01):
volatile like this that you'reusing in some format as an
inflation hedge, like gold, likecryptocurrency, you should be
in it for the long term.
You should be holding for thelong term, only invest what you
can afford to hold on to andwait it out because at some
point, just like someday I don'tknow if we'll be alive to see
it or not someday gold will be$5,000, $6,000 an ounce.
(12:23):
Someday, bitcoin, unless theysplit it up somehow, will be
$200,000, $250,000, whatever itmay be.
These things happen as a factornot only of the asset itself,
not only of the asset class, butbecause of the devaluation of
the dollar, which has beenhappening since the dollar came
to be in this country.
(12:44):
So that's that, the stockmarket.
I don't really care too muchabout the stock market, as many
of you know who have followed mycontent over the years, but
we'll do a check in there aswell.
So here's what we told you onelection night.
So on November 4th, the stockmarket, or the Dow, rather the
(13:07):
Dow Industrial Average, was at41,800 roughly, or the Dow,
rather the Dow IndustrialAverage, was at 41,800 roughly.
At the time that I'm recordingthis, it is at 41,142.
So it's down very slightly,basically held steady.
This was one of the things.
Even though I despise the stockmarket, I think it's a casino
and you're better off going to acasino and putting your savings
on black on the roulette tablethan playing with the stock
(13:30):
market.
It is shocking to me because wewent back to 1980 stats for the
stock market and we looked atthe last however many
presidential elections that is Iguess that's about 11 or so
presidential elections, and itdidn't matter Republican,
Democrat, who the president wasthere was a shockingly
(13:51):
consistent trend over the last45, 50 years to where,
immediately after the election,every time from November going
into December January, there wasa huge uptick in the market,
with, I believe, only oneexception, and that's what
happened here you can see themarket actually, within the
(14:11):
first week of Trump's win, wentup about 10%, almost closer to
8% actually.
Then it continued.
We actually saw this on thedata and this held consistent.
We peaked out in December atright above right at 45,000 for
the Dow.
So that's up a full nearly 10%.
(14:37):
Then we also did tell you itwas very common this wasn't as
consistent as that bump was inthe data, but there was usually
a dip going into the start ofthe following year after an
election.
We saw that too.
Then we saw, right after theinauguration, pop back up above
(14:57):
in that 45,000 range and then,once we hit tariff time, we saw
a pretty catastrophic drop.
We actually popped all the waydown to 37,645 for a very brief
time before shooting back up.
And now here we are.
Like I said, we're about evendown, about one and a half
(15:21):
percent since the election onthe Dow Industrial.
So you know, this is again.
I don't.
I don't own any stock.
I don't advise people to buystocks.
I think it's the biggestnonsense that we've all been
programmed to believe that weshould just let mutual fund
managers do whatever they wantwith our retirement, not worry
(15:42):
about it and not have anypersonal accountability or
strategy involved with how wewant to invest, invest.
So I'm not a big fan in general, and this is kind of an example
of why I mean and why it's acasino to me, because it's up,
down, up, down, up down and overthe course of the year, if
everything's going good, you'lldo okay.
You'll do a little bit worsethan the people that were active
(16:02):
.
Everything's doing bad, you'lldo a little bit worse than the
people that try to protectthemselves.
So, at all the asset classesyou want to call it that, I
would have the stock market atthe bottom of my list.
That's just me.
That's how I've always been andshall continue to be.
I still like gold as anopportunity, as an inflation
hedge, and then I do believeit's a great time for the real
(16:25):
estate market.
I think we're starting to see acombination of chaos, which you
know if you've listened toanything I've ever done webinars
or podcast episodes.
We always say chaos createsopportunity, and what I mean by
that is is when all thisfluctuation is going on, when
people are scared, when sellersare scared, when buyers are
(16:45):
scared, and you're not scared,when you have a fundamental
calmness, because you have afundamental calmness, because
you have a strategy that you'vetested and you've studied and
you know you believe works, thenyou can execute in a way that
allows you to move freelythrough chaotic markets with a
calmness and a peace and agratitude for that situation to
be able to capitalize to thefullest extent.
(17:06):
So that's what we try to do onthe real estate side and I'm
grateful to do it, and I hopethat if you like real estate, if
you like crypto which I know,there's a lot of people that I
know that are really doing greatwith crypto good, you know rock
and roll, whatever you'repassionate about, whatever you
have a risk tolerance for, andwhatever you love doing, have a
(17:26):
fundamental strategy andunderstand.
This always happens my entirelifetime and people I'm close
with that are a lot older thanme, more experienced than me.
This always happens, since thebeginning of media, since the
beginning of human civilization,I would assume, certainly in my
lifetime to where, back in 2008, everybody said oh, this is the
(17:48):
worst it's ever been.
Oh, that's Great Depression.
Dow will never be above 10,000again.
Now it's been above 40,000 theworst it's ever been.
Oh, that's Great Depression.
Dow will never be above 10,000again.
Now it's been above 40,000.
The majority of the last yearReal estate market.
We saw drops 70, 80, someplaces even literally 90% drops
in value in real estate pricesin 08.
It all came back.
Not only did it all come back,it came back stronger than ever.
(18:10):
It's when it's going down,capitalize on that by making
your money on the buy, and whenit's going up, be smart about it
.
And, more importantly, from areal estate perspective, like we
also always, thankfully, talkabout basing strategies on cash
flow, it's where you don't carewhat it's worth.
It only matters what it's worthas far as a property goes when
(18:30):
you buy it and when you sell it.
Matters what it's worth as faras a property goes when you buy
it and when you sell it,everything in the middle, it
doesn't matter at all what it'sworth, unless you're utilizing
that capital.
The only thing that matters ishow much cash flow is that
property generating?
And so we try to use theproperties as a cash machine to
generate the highest possiblecash on cash return and give us
that protection while stillhaving the asset long-term
(18:53):
hopefully for 20, 25 years ormore to build on that inflation
hedge and get the benefits ofthat.
So that's our market check-in,guys.
Again, thank you so much.
You would really make me feelhappy if you would subscribe,
because we've got about 91% ofour listeners are not subscribed
(19:14):
, so you could do that.
We'd really appreciate it.
But thank you either way.
It really means a lot.
I hope we all have a blessed,prosperous remainder of 2025.
And I'm excited to see on ourepisodes coming up in May with
some of these awesome interviewswe have.
So have a great week, guys, andwe'll see you next time.
Thanks so much.
All right, guys.
Thank you so much and welcome.
This is Stephan Piscano withthe Stephan Piscano podcast.
Happy belated Cinco de Mayo,guys.
We are into May and I justcan't believe how fast this year
is going by.
We're almost halfway into 2025.
As always, if you have notsubscribed yet, this is a great
(00:23):
month for you to do so.
They either join us on Spotifyor Apple podcast or, of course,
youtube, where you can find usat at Stefan Piscano, which I'm
putting most of my sports stuffup on that YouTube channel and
(00:58):
just try not to mix the two.
And then if you want more ofour traditional stuff, where
we're talking about real estateinvestment strategies from a
high level perspective goldprices, precious metals in
general, even some crypto andjust motivational
entrepreneurial stuff then you'dwant to go to at Vacation
Wealth Partners.
And then for all of my savvyinvestors in my networks I know
there's several, thankfully,that are more interested in the
meat and potatoes we do showcaseactual partnership
opportunities on that channel aswell.
You see some of the luxuryvacation rentals that Vacation
Wealth Partners is investing inand even how you can partner
with us.
So grateful for everybody thattakes the time to do that.
(01:19):
It is free, it is quick and itmeans a lot.
So thank you sincerely for yourpartnership and all you do
there.
I just wanted to do a quicklittle showcase for what we've
got coming up in May, becauseI'm gonna call this interview
month.
Every episode you're gonna seeunless there's some surprise
thing that happens in themarkets or precious metals,
(01:42):
sports, whatever that I pop onand do a quick one for Every
full-length episode you're goingto see this month is going to
be an interview with some veryexciting, talented people.
Next week we're going to have ashowcase of a book, the first
author showcase that we've done.
That's a fun one looking at thehistory of the young James Bond
(02:03):
.
The book is called the YoungJames Bondsman.
Good friend of mine that I'veknown for almost 20 years wrote
that, so I was excited to havehim on.
And then last week I justrecorded a great episode that
I'm really excited about with areal close friend and partner of
mine.
That talks about personalityprofiling using the DISC system
and we spent about two and ahalf hours just really walking
(02:26):
through how you as a salespersonif you're a realtor, listening
to this, even as an investor,trying to get a deal done how
you can know more about your ownpersonality type, use that to
your benefit and how you canlearn about other people's
personality types and use thatto help get a deal accomplished
as well, or just better yourrelationships personally.
So thank you guys so much Again.
(02:48):
This is a quick little helloepisode, just a little check-in,
so I'm really not going to editthis one much, if at all.
I just missed you guys, likealways.
So I wanted to check in.
We're now more than 100 daysinto Trump's presidency.
We did an election nightspecial before we knew the
results, where we made ourprojections for what we thought
(03:08):
would happen in some of the maincategories.
I'll put a link to where youcan go back and listen to that
episode and you can compare howwe did with how your predictions
penciled out.
And then we're going to just doa little check in here now
about six months actually morethan six months now, six months
and one day after the electionand after we made those
(03:30):
projections, we're going to seewhat we said we thought would
happen in each category, what'sactually happened and then maybe
a little idea of what webelieve might happen moving
forward so you can see on thescreen here I'm going to start
with gold, just because it'sprobably the one that I followed
the closest and been the mostinvested in from an emotional
standpoint, obviously, from atangible standpoint, I'm
(03:51):
invested in real estate and Ihave very little gold.
But back on election, thischart's actually only going back
six months, so we need thatextra day because that's
important.
Six months.
So we need that extra daybecause that's important.
So we go back to November 4th.
We had gold at 2746 an ouncegoing into the election.
(04:16):
At that time we told you thatwe thought if Trump won that
what would be most likely tohappen is you'd see an immediate
dip.
There would still be some rapidinflation that would need to
take place, so we thought itwould continue to ultimately
rise but probably would leveloff quite a bit.
So this is what I'm going tosay that even though we've been
(04:38):
bullish on gold for years, I'vedone countless webinars and
podcast episodes talking aboutprecious metals and I was
telling everybody.
We looked at the historical datagoing all the way back to the
1940s and mainly we focused onthe rapid inflation period that
we saw from 1976 to 1980.
We told you in October, we toldyou last November on election
(05:01):
night and we've told you everyepisode pretty much we've talked
about it since that if wemodeled the same historical data
and looked at what we sawhappen in 1976 to 1980, where
gold went up about 400% overthat four-year period and really
had a huge boom in an 18-monthperiod 79, going into 81, we
(05:23):
told you that gold would end upat about $3,200 an ounce.
So I'm going to say on this onewe were both right and wrong,
because we were correct.
You can see, right after theelection, just as we projected,
we saw a massive $200 roughlyannounced drop in that first
week.
But then, however, we huddledaround $2,600, $2,700 going
(05:45):
through December and we startedthe year at 2618 per ounce on
December 30th going into 2025.
Then, once the tariff action gotgoing, that's when it was off
to the races here, you see, wehit 3000 for the first time in
(06:07):
mid-March, shot back down under3000 the beginning of April and
then we flirted with 3500 just acouple of weeks ago, which is
insane.
So the reason that I'm going tosay that we were partially
wrong on that is it'soutperformed what I thought it
might do, but it's stillfollowing the same trends.
Now, in the last time we did acheck-in about a month ago on
(06:28):
this when it was in the high3,400s and you can see at the
time I'm recording this, it'snow $3,392.70 an ounce for gold
right now.
We told you that our bestprojections and educated guess
would be that it was going tocontinue to be a roller coaster.
It was probably a good time tomaybe sell a little bit in that
(06:49):
34 to 35000 to $3,500 range andthen it would probably level off
and then continue to rise overthe next three to six months.
But at some point this year andI still believe this is
probably a pretty good guesssome point this year, we believe
you're likely going to see a$400 to $6 an ounce drop, which
(07:11):
you could make the argument thatthat's already happening right
now, since we're down about $100an ounce drop, which you know
you could make the argument thatthat's already happening right
now, since we're down about $100an ounce the last couple of
weeks here, since we did ourlast episode on this.
But having said that, I dobelieve, if you look at the
historical data, which, again,none of what we've done here has
been based on tariffs, none ofit has been on emotion, it's all
on historical, factualstatistics, the data going back
(07:39):
again, like I said, nearly 100years of inflation data,
economic data to project outwhat we believe gold has done in
the past and it'll probably dothe same in the future typically
, and it's done that, thankfully, so far.
That's why, when we weretelling you it would likely go
to 3,200 an ounce, when it was1,700, 1,800 an ounce, we've
seen that happen.
I do believe, based on thatdata alone, that there is a
strong floor for gold in thevery high 2000s, low 3000s.
(08:03):
So in that 2,900 to 3,200 anounce range, there's probably a
very strong floor that it neededto catch up to, based on the
historical inflation rates, andit has caught up to and
surpassed now.
So, even if we do see a littlevolatility, or a lot of
volatility, and it goes backdown, we believe it's likely
that it'll stay above 3000 forthe rest or majority of the year
(08:24):
.
So that's our two cents on gold.
The one that I think that wenailed the most accurate with
our election night predictionswas Bitcoin.
So at the time that we recordedthat, bitcoin was 76,000.
We told you that, based on justthe excitement of an election,
(08:48):
regardless of who won, that wewere probably going to see an
uptick.
When you factor in the factthat Trump and his family are
very pro crypto and I think youknow, they even announced not
only a pro crypto presidency buttheir own crypto products
exchange NFTs whatever it may bewith the family there.
(09:09):
So that was obvious.
I mean, that wasn't hard tomake a guess that you would see
an immediate pop.
And we did.
We told you we thought it wouldhit 100,000.
And I told you at that time ifit did hit 100,000, I'd be
selling.
Actually, we did an episoderight here on December 5th when
it was 102,000 plus.
You can go back and listen tothat.
I told you if it was me justbecause I've been burned by
(09:31):
crypto so many times I wouldhave been selling my Bitcoin.
I don't have any Bitcoin, butif I did, I would have been
selling it right there, but Idid tell you I thought that we
would have an opportunity to buyback in, just because it's so
volatile.
So I'm going to say that wepretty much nailed this one
right on the nose here, becauseon December 5th 2024, when we
made that episode, you can seeit above $100,000.
(09:52):
On December 5th 2024, we madethat episode you can see it
above 100,000.
Then it dropped all the waydown at one point to 80,000 at
the end of February, going intoMarch 2025.
Then it's been a roller coaster, as it always is, ever since.
You had it actually hit a lowof 77,000 on April 7th, and so
this is the buying range that Italked about back in December,
(10:14):
that if you sold at that 100K,you'd probably have an
opportunity to buy back in inthe 70s or 80s, and that was
that period right here.
So if you did that, then you'reprobably pretty happy about it,
because now it's shooting backup.
You can see we've spent themajority of the last month above
90,000.
At the time we record this,we're at 96,600 per Bitcoin,
(10:38):
which is still insane to look at.
I do believe this is a goodholding number.
Right here, we saw thevolatility that we expected to
see going right at the beginningof Trump's presidency win, and
then the volatility that weexpected to see going right at
the beginning of Trump'spresidency win, and then the
volatility going down amidst allof the tariff chaos and all
(10:59):
that throughout March and April.
Now it's found its footing tosome extent.
Obviously, crypto is alwaysgoing to be volatile, whether
it's going up or going down, but, as you can see by this chart,
if you bought Bitcoin six monthsago, you're up 29.27%, which is
about a 60% annualized return.
(11:19):
So you're probably pretty happy.
You'd be even more happy if youcan hold on to that, which is
always the thing with crypto.
You can have I mean, I've had200% gains on crypto in a day,
but it's can you hold on to it.
That's the most important thing.
So I'm still you know at thispoint, I'm not a huge fan of
Bitcoin.
I think, if you already havesome, I'd recommend holding,
(11:40):
maybe offload a little bit,depending on what your entry
point is.
But I would be, at this point,pretty shocked if Bitcoin did
not in the year above 90,000.
Pretty shocked if Bitcoin didnot end the year above 90,000.
And I wouldn't be surprised ifit even jumped up and tapped 120
, 125 at some point during 2025.
So there's still a lot of roomthere and, as is anything that's
(12:01):
volatile like this that you'reusing in some format as an
inflation hedge, like gold, likecryptocurrency, you should be
in it for the long term.
You should be holding for thelong term, only invest what you
can afford to hold on to andwait it out because at some
point, just like someday I don'tknow if we'll be alive to see
it or not someday gold will be$5,000, $6,000 an ounce.
(12:23):
Someday, bitcoin, unless theysplit it up somehow, will be
$200,000, $250,000, whatever itmay be.
These things happen as a factornot only of the asset itself,
not only of the asset class, butbecause of the devaluation of
the dollar, which has beenhappening since the dollar came
to be in this country.
(12:44):
So that's that, the stockmarket.
I don't really care too muchabout the stock market, as many
of you know who have followed mycontent over the years, but
we'll do a check in there aswell.
So here's what we told you onelection night.
So on November 4th, the stockmarket, or the Dow, rather the
(13:07):
Dow Industrial Average, was at41,800 roughly, or the Dow,
rather the Dow IndustrialAverage, was at 41,800 roughly.
At the time that I'm recordingthis, it is at 41,142.
So it's down very slightly,basically held steady.
This was one of the things.
Even though I despise the stockmarket, I think it's a casino
and you're better off going to acasino and putting your savings
on black on the roulette tablethan playing with the stock
(13:30):
market.
It is shocking to me because wewent back to 1980 stats for the
stock market and we looked atthe last however many
presidential elections that is Iguess that's about 11 or so
presidential elections, and itdidn't matter Republican,
Democrat, who the president wasthere was a shockingly
(13:51):
consistent trend over the last45, 50 years to where,
immediately after the election,every time from November going
into December January, there wasa huge uptick in the market,
with, I believe, only oneexception, and that's what
happened here you can see themarket actually, within the
(14:11):
first week of Trump's win, wentup about 10%, almost closer to
8% actually.
Then it continued.
We actually saw this on thedata and this held consistent.
We peaked out in December atright above right at 45,000 for
the Dow.
So that's up a full nearly 10%.
(14:37):
Then we also did tell you itwas very common this wasn't as
consistent as that bump was inthe data, but there was usually
a dip going into the start ofthe following year after an
election.
We saw that too.
Then we saw, right after theinauguration, pop back up above
(14:57):
in that 45,000 range and then,once we hit tariff time, we saw
a pretty catastrophic drop.
We actually popped all the waydown to 37,645 for a very brief
time before shooting back up.
And now here we are.
Like I said, we're about evendown, about one and a half
(15:21):
percent since the election onthe Dow Industrial.
So you know, this is again.
I don't.
I don't own any stock.
I don't advise people to buystocks.
I think it's the biggestnonsense that we've all been
programmed to believe that weshould just let mutual fund
managers do whatever they wantwith our retirement, not worry
(15:42):
about it and not have anypersonal accountability or
strategy involved with how wewant to invest, invest.
So I'm not a big fan in general, and this is kind of an example
of why I mean and why it's acasino to me, because it's up,
down, up, down, up down and overthe course of the year, if
everything's going good, you'lldo okay.
You'll do a little bit worsethan the people that were active
(16:02):
.
Everything's doing bad, you'lldo a little bit worse than the
people that try to protectthemselves.
So, at all the asset classesyou want to call it that, I
would have the stock market atthe bottom of my list.
That's just me.
That's how I've always been andshall continue to be.
I still like gold as anopportunity, as an inflation
hedge, and then I do believeit's a great time for the real
(16:25):
estate market.
I think we're starting to see acombination of chaos, which you
know if you've listened toanything I've ever done webinars
or podcast episodes.
We always say chaos createsopportunity, and what I mean by
that is is when all thisfluctuation is going on, when
people are scared, when sellersare scared, when buyers are
(16:45):
scared, and you're not scared,when you have a fundamental
calmness, because you have afundamental calmness, because
you have a strategy that you'vetested and you've studied and
you know you believe works, thenyou can execute in a way that
allows you to move freelythrough chaotic markets with a
calmness and a peace and agratitude for that situation to
be able to capitalize to thefullest extent.
(17:06):
So that's what we try to do onthe real estate side and I'm
grateful to do it, and I hopethat if you like real estate, if
you like crypto which I know,there's a lot of people that I
know that are really doing greatwith crypto good, you know rock
and roll, whatever you'repassionate about, whatever you
have a risk tolerance for, andwhatever you love doing, have a
(17:26):
fundamental strategy andunderstand.
This always happens my entirelifetime and people I'm close
with that are a lot older thanme, more experienced than me.
This always happens, since thebeginning of media, since the
beginning of human civilization,I would assume, certainly in my
lifetime to where, back in 2008, everybody said oh, this is the
(17:48):
worst it's ever been.
Oh, that's Great Depression.
Dow will never be above 10,000again.
Now it's been above 40,000 theworst it's ever been.
Oh, that's Great Depression.
Dow will never be above 10,000again.
Now it's been above 40,000.
The majority of the last yearReal estate market.
We saw drops 70, 80, someplaces even literally 90% drops
in value in real estate pricesin 08.
It all came back.
Not only did it all come back,it came back stronger than ever.
(18:10):
It's when it's going down,capitalize on that by making
your money on the buy, and whenit's going up, be smart about it
.
And, more importantly, from areal estate perspective, like we
also always, thankfully, talkabout basing strategies on cash
flow, it's where you don't carewhat it's worth.
It only matters what it's worthas far as a property goes when
(18:30):
you buy it and when you sell it.
Matters what it's worth as faras a property goes when you buy
it and when you sell it,everything in the middle, it
doesn't matter at all what it'sworth, unless you're utilizing
that capital.
The only thing that matters ishow much cash flow is that
property generating?
And so we try to use theproperties as a cash machine to
generate the highest possiblecash on cash return and give us
that protection while stillhaving the asset long-term
(18:53):
hopefully for 20, 25 years ormore to build on that inflation
hedge and get the benefits ofthat.
So that's our market check-in,guys.
Again, thank you so much.
You would really make me feelhappy if you would subscribe,
because we've got about 91% ofour listeners are not subscribed
(19:14):
, so you could do that.
We'd really appreciate it.
But thank you either way.
It really means a lot.
I hope we all have a blessed,prosperous remainder of 2025.
And I'm excited to see on ourepisodes coming up in May with
some of these awesome interviewswe have.
So have a great week, guys, andwe'll see you next time.
Thanks so much.
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