Explore the intricate dance between U.S. presidential elections and market movements in our latest episode, offering you valuable insights to navigate the economic waves of 2024. As we reflect on the charged energy that election seasons bring, akin to historic unifiers like 9/11 or the fervor of major sports events, we aim to equip you with the knowledge necessary for informed investment strategies. Although I initially planned to host expert guests, a busy schedule with property buying led me to embark on this solo journey, bringing you a rich blend of historical data and personal reflections.
The narrative that each election is "the most important of our lifetime" is a recurring theme, often amplified by media narratives and human nature. By comparing current times with historical periods like 1976-1980, we find reassurance that stability is within reach through informed decisions. We'll dissect the stock market's behavior, which often resembles a casino in its inability to keep pace with inflation, and offer projections for various asset classes based on potential election outcomes.
Delve into the fascinating relationship between elections and market trends over the past 40 years, revealing how markets often rebound or continue their trends post-election. We'll also examine inflation's impact on real estate and other investments, using historical price comparisons to highlight how inflation can serve as both a risk and an opportunity. This episode is a treasure trove of insights designed to help you understand the economic landscape during these pivotal times and equip you with strategies to make astute investment decisions.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:14):
Thank you for watching.
All right, thank you so muchand welcome.
(00:46):
This is Stephan Piscano, withVacation Wealth Partners and the
Stephan Piscano Podcast andhappy election day y'all.
It is gosh.
We're just hours away.
It's wild.
This feels like this electioncycle has been decades and we're
hours away from the results ofthe 2024 presidential election.
(01:09):
As I record this, I'm going toapologize in advance.
We are probably not going toreally edit this one too much,
so there's going to be a lotmore alms and whatever weird
sounds I make when I'm talkingthan usual and whatever weird
sounds I make when I'm talkingthan usual, just because I'm
busy and I hadn't had time toreally record this properly.
(01:31):
But I wanted to be a part ofthe election cycle and just give
my two cents.
Before I dive in, I just wantto thank you guys for your
incredible support as wecontinue to grow this podcast as
another avenue that we have OnPlayer FM specifically, we're
now up to 4,100 subscribers inour first month, which is insane
(01:54):
to me that there's that manypeople that enjoy this content.
But thank you, guys, really doappreciate it.
If you're listening on AppleSpotify, wherever you get your
podcast, or my favorite YouTube,please do give us a
subscription and, if you can, afive-star rating.
It really does mean a lot to mepersonally and our entire team
(02:16):
that works hard to put thiscontent out, so you can
hopefully benefit in some way,and thank you for your support.
So originally what I hadintended to do was we were going
to have a bunch of experts onin finance and politics and
various sectors, and we're stillgoing to do that at some point
over the next couple of weeks.
Here I've got a lot of reallytalented people that we're going
(02:38):
to interview and have on theshow, but largely because, I'll
be honest, I am more focused onbuying properties than I am
talking about buying properties,and it's been a very busy
couple of weeks, we haven't beenable to coordinate the
interview schedule.
So today you're just going tohave me and I'm going to try to
look at the election from theinvestor's perspective.
(03:01):
So we're not going to getpolitical with it at all.
I don't do that.
Those of you that know meprivately, if you want to hear
me ramble about that stuff, youcan hear it as much as you want,
but publicly we just try tofocus on the factual data that
we have access to and how we canuse that as investors, to be as
(03:21):
informed and engaged aspossible and ultimately,
hopefully, be as profitable aswe can possibly be.
Information is power, knowledgeis power and thankfully we've
got hundreds and hundreds ofyears of data points that we can
look at to be informedinvestors and realize how the
(03:44):
market reacts to a presidentialelection.
So in a moment, I'm going togive you some historical data on
gold prices, the housing market, stock market, even a little
bit of crypto perhaps, and whatwe believe will happen based on
who is deemed the winner of thiselection and what impact that
(04:07):
could have on all those marketsI mentioned.
But before I do that, I just Iwanted to, on an emotional level
, on a personal level, I wantedto take a moment and talk about
how unique to me this time is.
To me, this time is.
(04:27):
So there's a feeling, there's asense that I really started
feeling yesterday, which wasMonday, the day before the
election, which is now todaythat I've only felt in my life
maybe half a dozen or so times,and some of the times I'm going
to talk about are going to beobvious.
Some of them aren't, some ofthem are personalized to me, but
(04:48):
it's a unique sentiment.
It's a really unique feelingand energy that I think is worth
talking about and I hopeultimately it adds some comfort
to those of you that arestressed today, regardless of
which candidate you're rootingfor, which side of the aisle you
believe that you're on.
And what that feeling is isreally collectivism.
(05:10):
It's the feeling of a largesegment of people, maybe
thousands, maybe hundreds ofthousands, maybe hundreds of
millions all feeling the sameenergy, the same emotion at the
same time.
For me in my life, the timesthat stand out, obviously 9-11.
(05:31):
I remember that, like it wasyesterday.
I remember being on my couchwatching the video of the planes
hit the towers and not knowingwhy, and I remember the feeling
that I felt and I remember theweeks that followed a country
(05:55):
that had been so divided priorto that uniting in such a
beautiful way.
And I'm not a big George W Bushfan, to be honest with you, but
when he threw that pitch out atthat Yankee game and it was
just a strike right down thecenter, that was probably the
greatest moment of his life andthe feeling of the unitedness
(06:21):
and, I think, his approvalrating, just because not because
of him so much, but because hewas our president at that time
was, I believe, around 80percent.
And then obviously it went backthe other way, like it always
does, and we became divided andSides found reasons to be angry
at each other and things of thatnature.
But that moment you all feltthis patriotism.
(06:44):
That was such a beautiful thingand a desire to help and to
protect.
That was such a beautiful thing, and I remember feeling that
that was the moment when Ireally decided at that point in
my life that I wanted to go intothe Marines, which I that's a
story for another day Iultimately did not do.
Just to be clear, I ended upbuying houses instead.
(07:05):
But I had two dreams growing up.
One was to go to the Marinesand one was to buy houses, and I
got one out of two.
But the level of desire, thecollective desire with everyone,
regardless if you're a Democrat, republican, libertarian,
independent, whatever you thinkyou are all being on the same
(07:25):
side you could feel that On amuch smaller level.
I remember it so clearly twosports instances in my life as a
diehard sports fan and someonewho loves the NBA.
I remember 2010, driving fromLos Angeles to Northern
(07:48):
California, and anybody that'sdone that drive will know what
I'm talking about when I saythis, but there's that part you
branch over onto I-5 goingtowards Sacramento and you can
kind of see the whole city ofLos Angeles, and this was in
June of 2010.
The Lakers were in the NBAfinals, getting ready to play
game seven against the BostonCeltics, and you could feel it.
(08:11):
You could see it and just theenergy was so strong, almost a
hush over the city.
As I did that drive and assomebody that's been a lifelong
Laker fan, even though I'm fromAlabama originally.
But Alabama has no basketballteam and the first basketball
player I ever saw play that Iconnected with was Magic Johnson
(08:31):
.
I thought he was about as coolas it gets.
So I was, right from the get-go, a diehard Laker fan and
driving, feeling that energy ofmillions of people in their
homes wanting the same thing butbeing nervous on if it would
happen or not.
It was surreal.
You could feel it.
Another sporting instance samething, 2016, game 7, golden
(08:59):
State Warriors against theCleveland Cavaliers against the
Cleveland Cavaliers.
And I was in the Bay Area atthat time, driving through the
San Francisco area, which is thearea for Golden State Warriors
team there, and same thingtraffic was light.
It was almost like anArmageddon type feel.
(09:21):
In 2008, when the marketscrashed and that was a more
extended feeling you could feelthis sense of fear with everyone
in the masses.
You could feel it in the media,you could feel it in people you
talk to on a personal level.
You could feel it at thegrocery store, everywhere around
you that, oh my gosh, is this agreat depression?
And all that.
One thing I'm really gratefulfor for myself that I feel is a
(09:44):
great blessing, that I praycontinues for me, is in those
moments of fear, in thosemoments of chaos, I've always
felt surprisingly calm, or evenexcited In 2008, you heard me
talk about that on the lastepisode of this podcast.
We did.
I remember it vividly.
As the bailouts were takingplace, as the chaos was taking
(10:06):
place, and as people I respected, really smart people, were
telling me oh my gosh, this isthe end, this is the Great
Depression.
The stock market's done, thereal estate market's done, the
dollar's done.
Having for some reason you cancall it young ignorance, maybe
(10:27):
having this belief thateverything was going to be okay.
And not only is everythinggoing to be okay, but I knew
instinctively.
I knew that if I was aggressivein that moment of chaos, when
the masses were not, when theywere paralyzed by fear, that
there was an incredibleopportunity there for profit for
(10:49):
myself and people that werewith me, that cared about me and
that I cared about, and that,thankfully, proved to be the
case.
And I think now, especiallyyesterday honestly more so
yesterday than today Today, theenergy I feel on Election Day is
more of a sense of relief fromthe masses that, okay, this
thing's finally, one way oranother, it's gonna be done.
(11:13):
Yesterday I felt this intensecollective anxiety, and it's
such a beautiful thing to me,because you can have hundreds of
millions, tens of millions ofpeople, whatever the number is
that all you know.
Half of them think that theyhave of them, think they hate
(11:33):
each other.
Half of them think that theydon't understand each other,
whatever the breakdown may be,but even though their ultimate
desires for the outcome of thiselection are polar opposites,
perhaps the feeling that we'reall feeling is exactly the same.
It's anxiety, it's worry aboutwhat the outcome means, how can
(11:58):
we impact it, what happens if itdoesn't go the way?
What happens if it does go theway that we want it to go?
And it's an interesting thing.
(12:20):
I will tell you this on thatnote too, candidate that you
believe or know needs to win tobe the best benefit for this
country.
Tomorrow we're all going towake up.
We're all going to have thesame personal responsibilities
that we have.
We're going to have the sameopportunities that we have, and
(12:42):
nobody's going to give us theday off from work because our
candidate didn't win.
Nobody's going to give us alate fee exemption on a bill
that needs to be paid.
We're going to still need to doand be grateful to do the
things that we need to do forourselves and our family and
those that we care about andlove and are responsible for,
(13:08):
whoever that may be.
So there's a sense of calmnessto me in the sense that
regardless and I'll say this onan investment standpoint, since
that's the theme of what we talkabout on this podcast and the
theme of this episode From aninvestment standpoint, honestly,
there are great opportunities,incredible opportunities,
(13:28):
regardless of who wins and I'llmake a more detailed argument
for both sides of that in amoment but regardless of what
candidate wins, it's the sameprocess and that's what I always
tell people.
When people start to getdiscouraged or worried that are
close to me.
I say and it's the truth, I hadsuccesses under George W Bush.
(13:52):
I had successes under BarackObama.
I had successes under DonaldTrump.
I had successes.
Honestly, even though it's nota political statement to make,
it's just a factual, a politicalstatement to make, it's just a
factual, obvious statement tomake.
The last four years the economyhas been garbage and inflation
has been the second highest orthe highest in the history of
(14:13):
this country, with Joseph PBiden as president of the United
States.
And guess what?
I've still had incrediblesuccesses.
Some of the greatest blessingsof my life, greatest deals as an
investor of my life, have beenin the last four years.
And so, regardless of if KamalaHarris or Donald Trump are the
(14:35):
president six months from now,there's still going to be
opportunities there in themarketplace.
That I promise you, that I know1000% certain.
And it's up to you and up to usAre we calm enough, are we
informed enough, engaged enough,and do we have the courage to
take advantage of thoseopportunities quickly and
(14:56):
aggressively when they presentthemselves?
And I hope that we do, and I'lltell you this too.
This is also obvious, but it'salso worth saying if you are
someone that's wondering goshwell, what can I do?
And you feel helpless, whichcan happen.
You feel like, oh well, youknow what, what can we do if it
(15:16):
doesn't go the way that you wantit to go?
Your opportunity in my opinion,your best opportunity to make a
difference because,realistically, you're not going
to lead a civil war, you're notgoing to bomb anybody and you
wouldn't want to.
And if you do want to bombanybody, you probably shouldn't
be listening to this podcast,because we have very different
(15:38):
views.
But your opportunity to haveyour voice, to have your impact,
is today.
The best opportunitypolitically that you have to
influence the outcome that youwant for this country is today,
with your vote.
And your best opportunity as aninvestor, in my opinion, is to
(15:59):
study the data, the historicaldata is to study the data, the
historical data, because wealways feel like now I do feel
like this election is morehistoric than usual, way more
important than usual as far asthe drastic contrast between
(16:20):
which way it could go.
But my entire adult life, every,literally every election of my
adult life, I have heard fromthe media from both sides this
is the most important electionof our lifetime.
Every year.
Now you could make an argumentthat could be true, because I
guess maybe everyone.
It's like how Tom Brady saidwhat's your favorite Super Bowl?
And his answer is the next one.
(16:40):
Well, ok, so maybe all of themare the most important move
forward.
If you want to look at it thatway, I think that's silly, but
every one of them they've saidthey, the masses have said this
is the most important one, andevery one of them is not so
different.
It's not so historic.
(17:01):
This one might actually be, butmost of them it's not so
historic.
This one might actually be, butmost of them.
There's a historical trackerthat we can look back hundreds
of years and go and look at itand you know, if you're of a
certain age and you've paidattention financial politics or
economics on a wide scale thelast 50 years, go back and look
at the data.
It'll blow your mind howconsistent it is.
(17:35):
It'll blow your mind how somany things from 1970 or 80 or
90 or 2008 are the same pitch,the same process, the same
protocols.
It is now, and every time ithappens you can go back and look
at the newspaper clippings.
It's always oh my gosh, this isthe wildest thing we've ever
(17:56):
seen.
And I think that's for tworeasons.
I think it's one because, assomebody myself who owns a
digital marketing company andhas gotten paid for driving
traffic over the years, itcreates more clicks, it creates
more eyeballs for it to be oh mygosh, we've never seen this
before.
And it's also because of thehuman nature that we all want to
(18:17):
be self-important and we allwant to believe that this time,
our time, the time that we'realive right here, right now, is
the most important that it'sever been.
I've always thought that's kindof silly.
I'm like well, you know what?
The civil war was a pretty.
It was a pretty big deal.
World war two pretty big deal,you know, and I can go on and on
and on.
There's other times that areare pretty, uh, pretty important
(18:40):
.
This is an important time,don't get me wrong, but my point
is is that there's otherimportant times, equally or more
so, other chaotic times that wecan look at.
Look at the data on whathappened to the financial
markets, what happened to us asindividuals, as a country, is,
as a society of human beings,everywhere, and you can look at
(19:04):
the data of what happened thenand you'll be shocked at how
similar it is to what happensnow.
You heard on the episode we didI can't remember if it was the
last one or the one before youheard me replay our predictions
episode that we did from 2020 onwhat we predicted was gonna
happen for 2021 and 20, you knowthe next four years to 2024,
right here, right now and I'mnot saying it to toot my own
(19:26):
horn, even though everybody whoknows me keeps saying that's
what I'm doing, but I'm reallynot it's just because, number
one, I'm kind of blown away thatwe got everything spot on.
But number two, and moreimportantly, it's amazing to
look back because we use thedata we believed and this is
(19:48):
where the educated guess and thehomework comes into play.
We believed that the mostcommon period we could look at
that mirrored what we were goingto see from 2020 to 2024 was
1976 to 1980, with the rapidinflation that happened then and
we believed and has happenednow.
That proved to be spot on.
So there's a time point inhistory where you can look at
(20:10):
and you can compare it and say,okay, this is pretty similar.
What happened then, what'slikely to happen now, and
there's a comfort in that for meat least, and I'm sure for a
lot of you in my network.
There's a comfort in that, inknowing that, gosh, everything's
gonna be okay.
(20:31):
It really is, and it's justlike I always say and somebody
much more famous and more smartthan me apparently says too, is
Warren Buffett which is thisnever as bad as it is when
everybody thinks it's bad, andit's never as good as it is when
(20:52):
anybody thinks it's good, wheneverybody thinks it's good.
So going against the grain andkeeping a foundation in fate,
gratitude for the opportunityand knowledge can create some
incredible stability for you intimes of uncertainty, which I
(21:13):
think that's something thatprobably everybody listening to
this for the most part anywaycan agree on.
It's a time of uncertainty.
I don't care what side you'reon.
It's a time of fear anduncertainty in a lot of
different ways.
So that's my sappy ramble abouteverything there, and now I'm
going to give you all some funstatistics and predictions,
(21:37):
projections, whatever you wantto call it, and some stats,
which I love.
So I'm going to go through eachindividual category of asset
classes that I pay attention toat least category of asset
(21:58):
classes that I pay attention to,at least and give you a quick
projection on what may or maynot happen if each candidate
wins, what may or may not bemore likely to happen in my
opinion, based on historicaldata for each sector, and then
we'll talk briefly about why andand then we'll close it up with
, kind of my overall, overallthoughts on what we should look
(22:23):
at for the rest of 2024, goinginto 2025, as investors in the
markets, as all.
So we'll start with one of Iguess I'll call it the easier
ones, which is the stock market.
Now, anybody that's listened toany of my content over the
years webinars, this podcastknows I despise the stock market
.
I think it's a casino.
(22:43):
I think you're better off goingto the roulette table and
putting your retirement on blackthan you are putting it in the
stock market, largely because itdoesn't keep up with historical
inflation rates.
And I just believe, as one ofmy mentors always told me, it's
their football field, it's theirball, it's their refs, it's
(23:05):
their game and you're just aspectator.
So there's other asset classeswhere you can play, where you
are a participant instead of aspectator.
But a lot of you, if not all ofyou, are, one way or another,
invested in the stock market.
So I'm going to give you somestats here on what the S&P 500
and the Dow have done afterelections, the last 30 or so
(23:30):
years here, after elections, thelast 30 or so years here.
And then I'm going to give youmy personal gut instinct on what
may or may not happen with thestock market, depending on who
wins.
So I'm going to start with theDow.
I think the Dow is actually abetter indicator of the overall
volatility of the stock marketthan the S&P.
That's just my opinion.
So let's go just the last 25years here 2000,.
(23:55):
The day after the election.
So this is George W Bush wins,beats Al Gore.
But there was uncertaintybecause they had the Chads and
all that stuff in Florida.
A lot of you remember that, ofcourse, market was down the day
after 0.41%, the week after down2.48%, a month after the
(24:20):
election in 2000,.
Down 3.06% and then year-enddown 1.51%.
So that makes perfect sense tome from a gut standpoint.
And, by the way, I'll just givethe disclaimer.
And those of you that haveheard some of the webinars and
podcasts I've done with one ofmy good friends, benjamin
(24:41):
Summers, have heard me say thisa lot.
But what I always love to do isI love to say well, what does
my gut instinct say on somethingand then compare my gut to the
numbers and then if they matchup, then I feel pretty good
about it being a solid strategy.
So my gut would tell me that itmakes perfect sense that you
(25:03):
would see the market trendingdownward and being volatile in
2000 because you had extreme thedefinition of uncertainty to
where we didn't know who thepresident was going to be for
several weeks or months afterthe election ended in 2000 with
Bush and Gore, and I rememberthat being.
(25:24):
It was a wild deal.
You're just like when is itgoing to end?
And it never did.
So it makes perfect sense thata month after the market was
down 3% and then by the year'send, which would have been a
month or so, a little longerthan that after that, once
things had solidified, themarket was still down 1.5%, but
it was up from the most chaoticpoint.
(25:45):
So it was that chaos point,like we talked about earlier,
that created the buyingopportunity that you could have
got in.
So that's that 2004,.
Bush beats Kerry in anothernegative election.
That one was a little bit moreobvious in my opinion, as
somebody that remembers it andthe feel of it at the time.
The day after, the market is up1.01 percent, a week later up
(26:09):
three and a half percent.
A month later up five and ahalf percent and by the end of
the year, up 7.45%.
Again more stable, more themedto what was going on in the boom
of both regulation andinflation at that particular
(26:30):
time, which had some outcomes in2008, which I'm going to talk
about here.
So 2008, november election daythis is when Barack Obama became
president for the first time,started serving his first term
and was in the height, in theheight of that chaotic time I
(26:53):
referenced so often, which wasthe 2008 crash, so on and so
forth.
So the day after the election,market's down 5%.
The week after, market down9.68%.
One month after the election,market down 12.98%, 8.98%.
(27:19):
By year's end, market down 8.8%.
So again about a 50% reboundfrom the low point of a month
after the election there.
And I don't think I need to saya whole lot more about that
right now because I kind of Imean, you've heard me, the only
thing I don't know if there'sanything actually that you've
heard Probably rapid inflationin 2008 are the two things
you'll hear me talk about themost.
So it makes sense I'm going togo to 2012 numbers here for you
(27:40):
for that election Day after theelection.
This is Mitt Romney versusBarack Obama Obama wins his
second term.
Day after market down 2.3%.
Week after down 2.3%.
Week after down 3.7%.
One month later down 1.3.
Year end down 1.06.
(28:02):
Are you noticing the same trendthat I'm noticing, and I just
noticed this right now?
But this is why this is fun.
So I'm just going to look atfor the ones I've done so far,
and actually I'll go ahead anddo all of them, because I just
realized the trend continueswith all of them.
So one month after the electionin 2000, the Dow is down 3.06.
(28:26):
By years in, it's down one anda half.
So there's a rebound, prettysignificant rebound from one
month after the election to theend of the year 2004, markets up
5.47%.
(28:47):
One month after the election byyears in, the market's up 7.45%
.
I wouldn't call it a reboundbecause they're both up, but
continued increase in that40-50% range.
2008, the greatest economicdisaster of this century.
A month after the election down12.98%.
By years in down 8.82%.
(29:09):
So about a 40-50% bounce Down8.82%.
So about a 40-50% bounce.
2012, a month after theelection market down 1.30%.
By years end, down 1.06%.
Another rebound 2016,.
This is when Trump won for thefirst time.
One month after the election,the market's up 6.99%.
(29:34):
By a year's end, market's up7.80%.
Another increase 2020,.
This is when Biden wins Onemonth after the election, the
market's up 9.06%.
By year's end, market's up11.39%.
(29:58):
For the last and again this iskind of fun because I literally
just stumbled on this whilewe're talking and actually I can
go back even further 1996, onemonth after 5.85.
End of the year 6.04.
1992, up 0.74.
(30:19):
Year's end one and a half,that's double.
1988, market up 0.67%.
One month after the election,by year's end, up 1.93% Triple.
Okay.
So I got to go back to 1984 isthe first year that I see where
(30:40):
that trend does not dictate.
So that means for the last 40years, whichever direction the
market is, one month after the,the election.
This is not my opinion.
This is a statistical fact thatwe've just uncovered here
together my podcast, family andmyself for 40 consecutive years,
(31:05):
one month after the election,wherever the market is at that
point which would be so if theelection is first week of
November, you're talking firstweek of December Wherever it is
at that point, for 40 yearsconsecutively by the end of the
(31:26):
year.
So within those few weeks fromthe first week of December to
the end of the year, the marketis higher and in most cases
significantly higher.
In some cases as much as triplein 1988 with Reagan Actually
I'm sorry that would have beenactually George Bush Sr, his
first term to as low as 30 to40%, I would say just off the
(31:53):
top of my head from looking atthese numbers here, the average
bounce is about 70%.
That's helpful.
I might actually buy some stockthe first week of December here
for the first time since Ibought a bunch of stock when the
pandemic first hit in 2020, andwe were up 300 plus percent on
(32:14):
that.
So that's fun to know.
All right, I spent more time onthat than I thought, but I'm
kind of happy I did because I'mnot kidding, I actually might do
something there.
So let's talk about preciousmetals.
So on this, not on this podcastthis podcast didn't exist then,
but on a webinar we did thatI've referenced probably way too
many times in December of 2020,we projected that we thought
(32:37):
rapid inflation was going to bethe cause of gold prices and the
housing market having a massiveuptick, and at that time we
projected that we could see goldprices hit $2,500 an ounce in
the next five years, which itdid it a little early here this
year in 2024.
In August it hit $2,500.
And now, as I record this, it'sat $2,770, roughly just a
(33:04):
couple days ago.
It's hitting a record high on aregular basis, but hit the most
recent record high to, Ibelieve, 2791, somewhere right
around there.
So my gut on this and this isjust my gut if Trump wins the
election, I think we're likelyto see gold prices stabilize and
(33:27):
then gradually dip down alittle bit.
I think you're going to have asolid resistance in that $2,300,
$2,400 an ounce level, butit'll probably touch that a
little bit over the next six to12 months and then eventually
it's going to make its way backup into where it is now in that
$2,700 to $2,900 range over thenext two, three years, because
(33:51):
there's market sentiment thatTrump would help inflation.
There's regulations withtariffs that he's going to put
in place and deregulations thathe's going to put in place that
would lower energy costs andagain, I'm not being political,
that's just what it is.
That would mitigate inflationto some extent.
That would mitigate inflationto some extent, but there's
(34:12):
still some inflation that needsto work its way through the
system, for lack of a better wayto put it.
And gold and real estate arethe two, in my opinion, or at
least two of the best ways togauge that.
(34:36):
If Harris wins, I don't thinkit's going to be that different.
I think you might.
Initially, there's going to beprobably some wild swings either
way the next month from rightnow in the gold prices,
specifically because of publicperception.
But you never want to invest inin precious metals based on
public perception.
You want to be ahead of thecurve.
You want to invest based onpublic perception.
You want to be ahead of thecurve.
You want to invest based on theinflation data, because that's
really what gold is is.
It's an inflation hedge to itscore.
(34:57):
So you want to use thatinflation data from a factual
standpoint and then, when thepublic perception goes up and
down which is meaningless, it'sjust so silly you want to
actually take advantage of thosebuying opportunities.
So that's why I tell you, ifTrump gets elected and I'm
correct with my little gistthere, which is all it is is a
gist that it dips a bit If youbelieve in the fundamentals of
(35:21):
inflation, that'd be the time tobuy some more Harris, I
wouldn't be surprised if shewins, if gold actually pops up
real quick over the next 30 dayshere, that would be the time
when I would probably sell,because then you're gonna see it
level off.
It'll ultimately level off toroughly the same place over the
next two to five years, two toten years, especially over the
(35:45):
next 20 years, going out thatfar.
But it's these little spikesthat we can look at where I
would tell you, if Trump wins,gold is more likely than not to
dip a little bit.
If Harris wins, it's morelikely to be the same or pop up
a little bit.
That's my opinion and I hopethat's helpful to you.
Honestly, it's funny because assomebody that I'm thankful I've
(36:08):
been blessed to buy 600 housesin my life or more than that.
I'm thankful I've been blessedto buy 600 houses in my life or
more than that.
These are units and you know,hopefully I'll be blessed to buy
many more, and it's myexpertise.
It's what I obsess about themost.
The housing market is the mostperplexing projection to make,
honestly, to where you couldreally see it going either way.
(36:30):
I mean it's largely, in myopinion, the inflation we've
seen over the last half decadehere.
That's propping up the values,but I don't see any scenario
where the interest rates can belowered to the point to make a
massive swing.
(36:50):
So what I think my initialprojection is and we're going to
do a more detailed projectionlook at some data and look at
who wins the election.
Look at what their policieslook like.
They're going to be out of thegate once they actually get in
there.
Whoever it is, make a better2025 projection than this.
My initial reaction, my gutinstinct on it is, is that we're
(37:10):
probably going to be fairlyflat on values over the next two
plus years here in the housingmarket, which I think is fine.
I know is fine because theopportunity doesn't lie in the
value of the property.
If you're relying on the valueof a home or an investment
property as your investmentstrategy, you might as well buy
gold or some other inflationhedge, because that's a wise and
(37:35):
tide floats, all boats.
There's no skill in that andthere's no real projection in
that.
You're at the roulette tableagain, just like you are with
the stock market.
If your strategy is based oncashflow, like ours, is creating
the highest possible cash oncash return, then you're
protected either way to someextent.
And what I mean by that is andthis is a great full circle
thing of what I said at the topto where there's a strategy for,
(37:58):
regardless of who wins theelection.
So let's just say we assume ifHarris wins we're more likely to
see continued rapid inflationlike what we've seen, and if
Trump wins we're less likely tosee that.
If that's the case which I'mnot necessarily saying it is,
but I think that's the generalperception.
(38:19):
So let's say it is Guess whatIf we see more rapid inflation?
All of the assets we alreadyown are going to dramatically go
up in value and we can use realestate as an inflation hedge to
counteract that.
And one thing we really haven'tseen the folks that.
We've seen the values hidden inthe housing market.
(38:41):
We've seen it in the cost ofthings.
What we're gonna see next andthis is a projection prediction,
whatever you wanna call it, butI feel pretty strong and good
about making we're gonna see itstart to catch up with the
income side of things over thenext few years.
Here we're going to see whichmeans for us the cost of a hotel
(39:02):
stay, which already has gone upsignificantly.
It's going to go up more thecost of an Airbnb stay.
In our case, we invest invacation rentals, luxury
vacation homes, your wages, ourwages, our revenue it's all
gonna go up because the dollar'sworth less.
That has to happen, I don'tcare who the president is.
So there's an opportunity there.
Let's say Trump gets in thereand let's say inflation rate is
(39:27):
mitigated, but as a hiddenresult of that, the housing
market dips 20%.
It's heavenly to me as far asan investment strategy goes, and
I'm grateful for that, becausewhat that means is I still stand
(39:48):
by, whether it's Trump orHarris the revenue side of
things, the income side ofthings, is going to catch up
with the inflation rates we'veseen, with the cost of
everything over the next fewyears.
So what does that mean, too, ifwe're an investor, if I'm an
investor and I own a rentalproperty and I bought that
(40:09):
property on the basis of gettinga 20% cash on cash return.
So I invest a million dollars.
My million dollars is earningme $200,000 net operating income
every year.
That's 20%.
I bought it on those premises.
Let's say the market dips by20%, so now my property is worth
(40:30):
800 grand instead of a millionbucks.
Okay, let's say the inflationcontinues to kick in and it's
just a small amount.
Say it's up 20% in the cost.
So now my 200 grand in rentalrevenue, net operating income
(40:51):
for that property is now 240,000.
My value of the property is 800.
So what do I do?
If my strategy is based on cashflow, I go buy a property just
like the one I've already gotfor 800,000.
Now I'm getting 240,000 on my$800,000 investment.
(41:13):
Now I'm getting a 30% cash oncash return instead of 20 for
the same exact strategy.
Nothing's changed.
Nothing has changed with thestrategy or the execution
thereof.
The only thing is inflation anddeflation working in concept to
better our investment strategy.
(41:34):
And on the original one that Iown, I don't care that it's
worth 800 and I've paid amillion for it.
I don't care at all, becauseI'm either still generating the
same 20% cash on cash returnthat I originally started with
or now I'm getting a 24% cash oncash return on that, because
I've increased my rents and mypurchase price is obviously
(41:56):
still the same because I alreadybought it.
I already own it.
So there's a strategy,regardless of who wins, and both
are equally effective in theshort term and in the long term
as well, in my humble opinion.
So I'm going to give you guysand this is more for the YouTube
, because apparently people likeit when I do this just to give
you guys an idea of thevolatility and how powerful
(42:21):
rapid inflation is, and justgeneral inflation over time
always is the average price ofsome items from 1980.
So I'm not going back 100 years, I'm not going back that far,
I'm going back to 1980.
And I'm going to do how it'sevolved over time, not because a
(42:45):
car is worth more, not becausea cheeseburger is worth more,
but because the dollar is worthless.
And I really want to ram it ineven more than I already have on
the inflation standpoint, howpowerful it is when we can use
an inflation hedge and howdangerous it can be.
For if you don't.
So 1980, the average price of acar in 1980 was $7,574.
(43:12):
That's for a brand new car.
A couple examples a Buick Regal, which I remember those pretty
well, was $8,085.
So that's spending.
The average price of a new carin 2020 was according to this
anyway it sounds low was $28,000.
The current average price of acar four years after 2020, 44
(43:38):
years after 1980 is $48,000.
So I'm doing off the top of myhead.
That's about a 600% more than600% increase in the average
price of a car over the last 44years.
And what's cool?
I don't know if it's cool ornot, but what's important about
(43:58):
inflation?
You'll notice, if you look atany inflation chart you'll go
back over 30 years, 40 years, 50years, whatever you're looking
at, and you'll see it's prettygradual and it all evens out
over time.
But you look at the spikes like76 to 1980, 2020 to 2024 right
now, really, 2020 to 2026 iswhat I've been projecting it
(44:24):
would be.
You see, these spikes, you'llhave these long periods where
it's flat or it's minimalinflation, and then you'll have
these two to six year spikeswhere it's flat or it's minimal
inflation, and then you'll havethese two to six year spikes
where it's just astronomical, towhere you see things double or
quadruple or go up 600%, likegold.
I mean, you can look back, goldwent up.
(44:44):
Well, it doubled just in oneyear, 1979 to 1980.
It doubled from $307 an ounce.
I'm doing this off the top ofmy head but you can fact check
me, it's accurate $307 an ounceto $614 an ounce from 1979 to
1980 at the year end close andit peaked at around 860 in 1980.
(45:06):
So even more than doublethroughout the course of the
year.
You might see the same thingnow In 2023, you had points
where gold was around $1,700.
I just told you it's almost$2,800 now.
So that's already a nearly 70%80% increase in a year.
If it continued on the trendcomparable to 1980, you might
(45:30):
see gold hit $3,200 to $3,400 anounce.
But that actually, now that Ithink about it too, it's in line
with what we've seenhistorically, because that data
matches up.
Our interest rates are not ashigh and our inflation, I don't
believe, as bad as it is.
It's not as bad as it was in1980, bringing it full circle to
(45:52):
my point about how this has allhappened before, for the most
part, a lot of it has.
Anyway, I'm going to give youone more fun one, guys here, and
then I'll leave you alone andlet you either go vote or go
watch the voting electionresults.
The price of a cheeseburger I'mkind of curious about that.
(46:12):
Let's see, I'm going of curiousabout that.
Let's see I'm going to do.
Let's stick with 1980cheeseburgers here.
The average cost of a fast foodburger in 1980 was 34 cents.
Now I remember pretty vividlythe oh and today the average
(46:37):
cost of a fast food burger isalmost six bucks.
I remember pretty vividly the99 cent Whopper advertisements
and Carl's Jr.
I remember they came out withtheir $6 burger, which at the
time it was funny because the $6burger, the whole point behind
that is they were saying oh, ifyou go to a restaurant, a fancy
(46:59):
restaurant, order a cheeseburger, it's going to be six bucks.
We'll give you our $6 burgerfor two bucks or whatever it was
.
Now the $6 burger at Carl's Jris like $11 or 12 bucks or
whatever it is, and thatrestaurant burger is like 25,
you 12 bucks or whatever it is,and that restaurant burger is
like 25,.
So whatever it is.
So you can see how that goesand let's do what do I want?
(47:20):
What's a fun one?
We haven't done so.
The average home price, whichwe've talked about this a lot
Well, so I'll go through forthose of you that haven't heard
our other content.
The average home price goingback to 1940 was $2,938.
(47:48):
The average home price for 1980, I got two numbers here.
One that we've used before is$47,200.
Got another one here that says$73,600, which these do seem to
vary a little bit.
The average home price today,which I don't know the answer to
this.
I'm excited to know the averagehome price today.
(48:17):
Oh, this is for California,okay, $860,200.
Yeah, and the average homeprice nationwide for the United
States $420,000.
That's up from 2020 when it was$338,000, according to this
statistic I see here, and thisis as of September 2024.
(48:39):
These are the numbers publishedhere, so you can see guys over
80 plus years.
If, over the course of oneperson's average lifetime,
you've had the average cost of ahome go up about 130 to 140 X
If you're in California it'smore like 200.
But nationwide, about 130 to150 X over the course of your
(49:04):
lifetime, think about howpowerful that is.
And if you're somebody that'slistening to this and you're
somebody in your 20s that wantsto own a home, and you're
somebody in your 20s that wantsto own a home, think about when
you retire, which I know is hardto think about when you're 20.
But let's you know, think aboutwhen you're in your 60s, when
you're in your 80s or even whenyou're 40s.
(49:25):
Look at this gap, look at thisgain over a 20-year period, and
I would encourage all of you, ifyou have an opportunity to own
a home, capitalize on it.
That's one of the things thatI'm saddened by with this.
Whatever this generation is Ys,ks, xs, I don't know what you
(49:47):
are, but whatever thisgeneration is that is more prone
to renting than buying, I mean,hey, that's great for me and my
partners as investors, morerenters the better.
But if you want to betteryourself as an investor
individual, do your best to findcreative ways to own, and
(50:08):
you're going to be grateful thatyou did in the long term.
So I probably rambled way morethan I thought.
I thought this was going to belike a 20 minute episode, but I
get excited about these numbers.
So, anyway, I don't know whenthis is going to post.
We're going to try to do minor,minor editing and just throw it
up there on election night.
(50:29):
We're now about two hours awayfrom polls starting to close and
hearing those results.
I hope that you guys havebenefited from this in some way.
I sincerely thank you for beingpart of my network.
I really do.
Again, if you can, please like,subscribe, give us a rating if
you want.
But more importantly, guys,like I said at the top, remember
(50:54):
whatever stresses you'refeeling, whatever worry you're
feeling.
So many millions of others arefeeling the same thing and for
all of us I hope, pray andbelieve it's gonna be okay, and
there's always a strategy on theinvestment side of things.
I can tell you it's gonna beokay, because there's always a
strategy, there's always anopportunity that any action in
(51:17):
the markets takes that we cancapitalize on, and then it's
just up to us to do so.
So, thank you guys, appreciateyou, happy election night and we
'll see you soon.
(52:22):
Take care, thank you.
Thank you for watching.
All right, thank you so muchand welcome.
(00:46):
This is Stephan Piscano, withVacation Wealth Partners and the
Stephan Piscano Podcast andhappy election day y'all.
It is gosh.
We're just hours away.
It's wild.
This feels like this electioncycle has been decades and we're
hours away from the results ofthe 2024 presidential election.
(01:09):
As I record this, I'm going toapologize in advance.
We are probably not going toreally edit this one too much,
so there's going to be a lotmore alms and whatever weird
sounds I make when I'm talkingthan usual and whatever weird
sounds I make when I'm talkingthan usual, just because I'm
busy and I hadn't had time toreally record this properly.
(01:31):
But I wanted to be a part ofthe election cycle and just give
my two cents.
Before I dive in, I just wantto thank you guys for your
incredible support as wecontinue to grow this podcast as
another avenue that we have OnPlayer FM specifically, we're
now up to 4,100 subscribers inour first month, which is insane
(01:54):
to me that there's that manypeople that enjoy this content.
But thank you, guys, really doappreciate it.
If you're listening on AppleSpotify, wherever you get your
podcast, or my favorite YouTube,please do give us a
subscription and, if you can, afive-star rating.
It really does mean a lot to mepersonally and our entire team
(02:16):
that works hard to put thiscontent out, so you can
hopefully benefit in some way,and thank you for your support.
So originally what I hadintended to do was we were going
to have a bunch of experts onin finance and politics and
various sectors, and we're stillgoing to do that at some point
over the next couple of weeks.
Here I've got a lot of reallytalented people that we're going
(02:38):
to interview and have on theshow, but largely because, I'll
be honest, I am more focused onbuying properties than I am
talking about buying properties,and it's been a very busy
couple of weeks, we haven't beenable to coordinate the
interview schedule.
So today you're just going tohave me and I'm going to try to
look at the election from theinvestor's perspective.
(03:01):
So we're not going to getpolitical with it at all.
I don't do that.
Those of you that know meprivately, if you want to hear
me ramble about that stuff, youcan hear it as much as you want,
but publicly we just try tofocus on the factual data that
we have access to and how we canuse that as investors, to be as
(03:21):
informed and engaged aspossible and ultimately,
hopefully, be as profitable aswe can possibly be.
Information is power, knowledgeis power and thankfully we've
got hundreds and hundreds ofyears of data points that we can
look at to be informedinvestors and realize how the
(03:44):
market reacts to a presidentialelection.
So in a moment, I'm going togive you some historical data on
gold prices, the housing market, stock market, even a little
bit of crypto perhaps, and whatwe believe will happen based on
who is deemed the winner of thiselection and what impact that
(04:07):
could have on all those marketsI mentioned.
But before I do that, I just Iwanted to, on an emotional level
, on a personal level, I wantedto take a moment and talk about
how unique to me this time is.
To me, this time is.
(04:27):
So there's a feeling, there's asense that I really started
feeling yesterday, which wasMonday, the day before the
election, which is now todaythat I've only felt in my life
maybe half a dozen or so times,and some of the times I'm going
to talk about are going to beobvious.
Some of them aren't, some ofthem are personalized to me, but
(04:48):
it's a unique sentiment.
It's a really unique feelingand energy that I think is worth
talking about and I hopeultimately it adds some comfort
to those of you that arestressed today, regardless of
which candidate you're rootingfor, which side of the aisle you
believe that you're on.
And what that feeling is isreally collectivism.
(05:10):
It's the feeling of a largesegment of people, maybe
thousands, maybe hundreds ofthousands, maybe hundreds of
millions all feeling the sameenergy, the same emotion at the
same time.
For me in my life, the timesthat stand out, obviously 9-11.
(05:31):
I remember that, like it wasyesterday.
I remember being on my couchwatching the video of the planes
hit the towers and not knowingwhy, and I remember the feeling
that I felt and I remember theweeks that followed a country
(05:55):
that had been so divided priorto that uniting in such a
beautiful way.
And I'm not a big George W Bushfan, to be honest with you, but
when he threw that pitch out atthat Yankee game and it was
just a strike right down thecenter, that was probably the
greatest moment of his life andthe feeling of the unitedness
(06:21):
and, I think, his approvalrating, just because not because
of him so much, but because hewas our president at that time
was, I believe, around 80percent.
And then obviously it went backthe other way, like it always
does, and we became divided andSides found reasons to be angry
at each other and things of thatnature.
But that moment you all feltthis patriotism.
(06:44):
That was such a beautiful thingand a desire to help and to
protect.
That was such a beautiful thing, and I remember feeling that
that was the moment when Ireally decided at that point in
my life that I wanted to go intothe Marines, which I that's a
story for another day Iultimately did not do.
Just to be clear, I ended upbuying houses instead.
(07:05):
But I had two dreams growing up.
One was to go to the Marinesand one was to buy houses, and I
got one out of two.
But the level of desire, thecollective desire with everyone,
regardless if you're a Democrat, republican, libertarian,
independent, whatever you thinkyou are all being on the same
(07:25):
side you could feel that On amuch smaller level.
I remember it so clearly twosports instances in my life as a
diehard sports fan and someonewho loves the NBA.
I remember 2010, driving fromLos Angeles to Northern
(07:48):
California, and anybody that'sdone that drive will know what
I'm talking about when I saythis, but there's that part you
branch over onto I-5 goingtowards Sacramento and you can
kind of see the whole city ofLos Angeles, and this was in
June of 2010.
The Lakers were in the NBAfinals, getting ready to play
game seven against the BostonCeltics, and you could feel it.
(08:11):
You could see it and just theenergy was so strong, almost a
hush over the city.
As I did that drive and assomebody that's been a lifelong
Laker fan, even though I'm fromAlabama originally.
But Alabama has no basketballteam and the first basketball
player I ever saw play that Iconnected with was Magic Johnson
(08:31):
.
I thought he was about as coolas it gets.
So I was, right from the get-go, a diehard Laker fan and
driving, feeling that energy ofmillions of people in their
homes wanting the same thing butbeing nervous on if it would
happen or not.
It was surreal.
You could feel it.
Another sporting instance samething, 2016, game 7, golden
(08:59):
State Warriors against theCleveland Cavaliers against the
Cleveland Cavaliers.
And I was in the Bay Area atthat time, driving through the
San Francisco area, which is thearea for Golden State Warriors
team there, and same thingtraffic was light.
It was almost like anArmageddon type feel.
(09:21):
In 2008, when the marketscrashed and that was a more
extended feeling you could feelthis sense of fear with everyone
in the masses.
You could feel it in the media,you could feel it in people you
talk to on a personal level.
You could feel it at thegrocery store, everywhere around
you that, oh my gosh, is this agreat depression?
And all that.
One thing I'm really gratefulfor for myself that I feel is a
(09:44):
great blessing, that I praycontinues for me, is in those
moments of fear, in thosemoments of chaos, I've always
felt surprisingly calm, or evenexcited In 2008, you heard me
talk about that on the lastepisode of this podcast.
We did.
I remember it vividly.
As the bailouts were takingplace, as the chaos was taking
(10:06):
place, and as people I respected, really smart people, were
telling me oh my gosh, this isthe end, this is the Great
Depression.
The stock market's done, thereal estate market's done, the
dollar's done.
Having for some reason you cancall it young ignorance, maybe
(10:27):
having this belief thateverything was going to be okay.
And not only is everythinggoing to be okay, but I knew
instinctively.
I knew that if I was aggressivein that moment of chaos, when
the masses were not, when theywere paralyzed by fear, that
there was an incredibleopportunity there for profit for
(10:49):
myself and people that werewith me, that cared about me and
that I cared about, and that,thankfully, proved to be the
case.
And I think now, especiallyyesterday honestly more so
yesterday than today Today, theenergy I feel on Election Day is
more of a sense of relief fromthe masses that, okay, this
thing's finally, one way oranother, it's gonna be done.
(11:13):
Yesterday I felt this intensecollective anxiety, and it's
such a beautiful thing to me,because you can have hundreds of
millions, tens of millions ofpeople, whatever the number is
that all you know.
Half of them think that theyhave of them, think they hate
(11:33):
each other.
Half of them think that theydon't understand each other,
whatever the breakdown may be,but even though their ultimate
desires for the outcome of thiselection are polar opposites,
perhaps the feeling that we'reall feeling is exactly the same.
It's anxiety, it's worry aboutwhat the outcome means, how can
(11:58):
we impact it, what happens if itdoesn't go the way?
What happens if it does go theway that we want it to go?
And it's an interesting thing.
(12:20):
I will tell you this on thatnote too, candidate that you
believe or know needs to win tobe the best benefit for this
country.
Tomorrow we're all going towake up.
We're all going to have thesame personal responsibilities
that we have.
We're going to have the sameopportunities that we have, and
(12:42):
nobody's going to give us theday off from work because our
candidate didn't win.
Nobody's going to give us alate fee exemption on a bill
that needs to be paid.
We're going to still need to doand be grateful to do the
things that we need to do forourselves and our family and
those that we care about andlove and are responsible for,
(13:08):
whoever that may be.
So there's a sense of calmnessto me in the sense that
regardless and I'll say this onan investment standpoint, since
that's the theme of what we talkabout on this podcast and the
theme of this episode From aninvestment standpoint, honestly,
there are great opportunities,incredible opportunities,
(13:28):
regardless of who wins and I'llmake a more detailed argument
for both sides of that in amoment but regardless of what
candidate wins, it's the sameprocess and that's what I always
tell people.
When people start to getdiscouraged or worried that are
close to me.
I say and it's the truth, I hadsuccesses under George W Bush.
(13:52):
I had successes under BarackObama.
I had successes under DonaldTrump.
I had successes.
Honestly, even though it's nota political statement to make,
it's just a factual, a politicalstatement to make, it's just a
factual, obvious statement tomake.
The last four years the economyhas been garbage and inflation
has been the second highest orthe highest in the history of
(14:13):
this country, with Joseph PBiden as president of the United
States.
And guess what?
I've still had incrediblesuccesses.
Some of the greatest blessingsof my life, greatest deals as an
investor of my life, have beenin the last four years.
And so, regardless of if KamalaHarris or Donald Trump are the
(14:35):
president six months from now,there's still going to be
opportunities there in themarketplace.
That I promise you, that I know1000% certain.
And it's up to you and up to usAre we calm enough, are we
informed enough, engaged enough,and do we have the courage to
take advantage of thoseopportunities quickly and
(14:56):
aggressively when they presentthemselves?
And I hope that we do, and I'lltell you this too.
This is also obvious, but it'salso worth saying if you are
someone that's wondering goshwell, what can I do?
And you feel helpless, whichcan happen.
You feel like, oh well, youknow what, what can we do if it
(15:16):
doesn't go the way that you wantit to go?
Your opportunity in my opinion,your best opportunity to make a
difference because,realistically, you're not going
to lead a civil war, you're notgoing to bomb anybody and you
wouldn't want to.
And if you do want to bombanybody, you probably shouldn't
be listening to this podcast,because we have very different
(15:38):
views.
But your opportunity to haveyour voice, to have your impact,
is today.
The best opportunitypolitically that you have to
influence the outcome that youwant for this country is today,
with your vote.
And your best opportunity as aninvestor, in my opinion, is to
(15:59):
study the data, the historicaldata is to study the data, the
historical data, because wealways feel like now I do feel
like this election is morehistoric than usual, way more
important than usual as far asthe drastic contrast between
(16:20):
which way it could go.
But my entire adult life, every,literally every election of my
adult life, I have heard fromthe media from both sides this
is the most important electionof our lifetime.
Every year.
Now you could make an argumentthat could be true, because I
guess maybe everyone.
It's like how Tom Brady saidwhat's your favorite Super Bowl?
And his answer is the next one.
(16:40):
Well, ok, so maybe all of themare the most important move
forward.
If you want to look at it thatway, I think that's silly, but
every one of them they've saidthey, the masses have said this
is the most important one, andevery one of them is not so
different.
It's not so historic.
(17:01):
This one might actually be, butmost of them it's not so
historic.
This one might actually be, butmost of them.
There's a historical trackerthat we can look back hundreds
of years and go and look at itand you know, if you're of a
certain age and you've paidattention financial politics or
economics on a wide scale thelast 50 years, go back and look
at the data.
It'll blow your mind howconsistent it is.
(17:35):
It'll blow your mind how somany things from 1970 or 80 or
90 or 2008 are the same pitch,the same process, the same
protocols.
It is now, and every time ithappens you can go back and look
at the newspaper clippings.
It's always oh my gosh, this isthe wildest thing we've ever
(17:56):
seen.
And I think that's for tworeasons.
I think it's one because, assomebody myself who owns a
digital marketing company andhas gotten paid for driving
traffic over the years, itcreates more clicks, it creates
more eyeballs for it to be oh mygosh, we've never seen this
before.
And it's also because of thehuman nature that we all want to
(18:17):
be self-important and we allwant to believe that this time,
our time, the time that we'realive right here, right now, is
the most important that it'sever been.
I've always thought that's kindof silly.
I'm like well, you know what?
The civil war was a pretty.
It was a pretty big deal.
World war two pretty big deal,you know, and I can go on and on
and on.
There's other times that areare pretty, uh, pretty important
(18:40):
.
This is an important time,don't get me wrong, but my point
is is that there's otherimportant times, equally or more
so, other chaotic times that wecan look at.
Look at the data on whathappened to the financial
markets, what happened to us asindividuals, as a country, is,
as a society of human beings,everywhere, and you can look at
(19:04):
the data of what happened thenand you'll be shocked at how
similar it is to what happensnow.
You heard on the episode we didI can't remember if it was the
last one or the one before youheard me replay our predictions
episode that we did from 2020 onwhat we predicted was gonna
happen for 2021 and 20, you knowthe next four years to 2024,
right here, right now and I'mnot saying it to toot my own
(19:26):
horn, even though everybody whoknows me keeps saying that's
what I'm doing, but I'm reallynot it's just because, number
one, I'm kind of blown away thatwe got everything spot on.
But number two, and moreimportantly, it's amazing to
look back because we use thedata we believed and this is
(19:48):
where the educated guess and thehomework comes into play.
We believed that the mostcommon period we could look at
that mirrored what we were goingto see from 2020 to 2024 was
1976 to 1980, with the rapidinflation that happened then and
we believed and has happenednow.
That proved to be spot on.
So there's a time point inhistory where you can look at
(20:10):
and you can compare it and say,okay, this is pretty similar.
What happened then, what'slikely to happen now, and
there's a comfort in that for meat least, and I'm sure for a
lot of you in my network.
There's a comfort in that, inknowing that, gosh, everything's
gonna be okay.
(20:31):
It really is, and it's justlike I always say and somebody
much more famous and more smartthan me apparently says too, is
Warren Buffett which is thisnever as bad as it is when
everybody thinks it's bad, andit's never as good as it is when
(20:52):
anybody thinks it's good, wheneverybody thinks it's good.
So going against the grain andkeeping a foundation in fate,
gratitude for the opportunityand knowledge can create some
incredible stability for you intimes of uncertainty, which I
(21:13):
think that's something thatprobably everybody listening to
this for the most part anywaycan agree on.
It's a time of uncertainty.
I don't care what side you'reon.
It's a time of fear anduncertainty in a lot of
different ways.
So that's my sappy ramble abouteverything there, and now I'm
going to give you all some funstatistics and predictions,
(21:37):
projections, whatever you wantto call it, and some stats,
which I love.
So I'm going to go through eachindividual category of asset
classes that I pay attention toat least category of asset
(21:58):
classes that I pay attention to,at least and give you a quick
projection on what may or maynot happen if each candidate
wins, what may or may not bemore likely to happen in my
opinion, based on historicaldata for each sector, and then
we'll talk briefly about why andand then we'll close it up with
, kind of my overall, overallthoughts on what we should look
(22:23):
at for the rest of 2024, goinginto 2025, as investors in the
markets, as all.
So we'll start with one of Iguess I'll call it the easier
ones, which is the stock market.
Now, anybody that's listened toany of my content over the
years webinars, this podcastknows I despise the stock market
.
I think it's a casino.
(22:43):
I think you're better off goingto the roulette table and
putting your retirement on blackthan you are putting it in the
stock market, largely because itdoesn't keep up with historical
inflation rates.
And I just believe, as one ofmy mentors always told me, it's
their football field, it's theirball, it's their refs, it's
(23:05):
their game and you're just aspectator.
So there's other asset classeswhere you can play, where you
are a participant instead of aspectator.
But a lot of you, if not all ofyou, are, one way or another,
invested in the stock market.
So I'm going to give you somestats here on what the S&P 500
and the Dow have done afterelections, the last 30 or so
(23:30):
years here, after elections, thelast 30 or so years here.
And then I'm going to give youmy personal gut instinct on what
may or may not happen with thestock market, depending on who
wins.
So I'm going to start with theDow.
I think the Dow is actually abetter indicator of the overall
volatility of the stock marketthan the S&P.
That's just my opinion.
So let's go just the last 25years here 2000,.
(23:55):
The day after the election.
So this is George W Bush wins,beats Al Gore.
But there was uncertaintybecause they had the Chads and
all that stuff in Florida.
A lot of you remember that, ofcourse, market was down the day
after 0.41%, the week after down2.48%, a month after the
(24:20):
election in 2000,.
Down 3.06% and then year-enddown 1.51%.
So that makes perfect sense tome from a gut standpoint.
And, by the way, I'll just givethe disclaimer.
And those of you that haveheard some of the webinars and
podcasts I've done with one ofmy good friends, benjamin
(24:41):
Summers, have heard me say thisa lot.
But what I always love to do isI love to say well, what does
my gut instinct say on somethingand then compare my gut to the
numbers and then if they matchup, then I feel pretty good
about it being a solid strategy.
So my gut would tell me that itmakes perfect sense that you
(25:03):
would see the market trendingdownward and being volatile in
2000 because you had extreme thedefinition of uncertainty to
where we didn't know who thepresident was going to be for
several weeks or months afterthe election ended in 2000 with
Bush and Gore, and I rememberthat being.
(25:24):
It was a wild deal.
You're just like when is itgoing to end?
And it never did.
So it makes perfect sense thata month after the market was
down 3% and then by the year'send, which would have been a
month or so, a little longerthan that after that, once
things had solidified, themarket was still down 1.5%, but
it was up from the most chaoticpoint.
(25:45):
So it was that chaos point,like we talked about earlier,
that created the buyingopportunity that you could have
got in.
So that's that 2004,.
Bush beats Kerry in anothernegative election.
That one was a little bit moreobvious in my opinion, as
somebody that remembers it andthe feel of it at the time.
The day after, the market is up1.01 percent, a week later up
(26:09):
three and a half percent.
A month later up five and ahalf percent and by the end of
the year, up 7.45%.
Again more stable, more themedto what was going on in the boom
of both regulation andinflation at that particular
(26:30):
time, which had some outcomes in2008, which I'm going to talk
about here.
So 2008, november election daythis is when Barack Obama became
president for the first time,started serving his first term
and was in the height, in theheight of that chaotic time I
(26:53):
referenced so often, which wasthe 2008 crash, so on and so
forth.
So the day after the election,market's down 5%.
The week after, market down9.68%.
One month after the election,market down 12.98%, 8.98%.
(27:19):
By year's end, market down 8.8%.
So again about a 50% reboundfrom the low point of a month
after the election there.
And I don't think I need to saya whole lot more about that
right now because I kind of Imean, you've heard me, the only
thing I don't know if there'sanything actually that you've
heard Probably rapid inflationin 2008 are the two things
you'll hear me talk about themost.
So it makes sense I'm going togo to 2012 numbers here for you
(27:40):
for that election Day after theelection.
This is Mitt Romney versusBarack Obama Obama wins his
second term.
Day after market down 2.3%.
Week after down 2.3%.
Week after down 3.7%.
One month later down 1.3.
Year end down 1.06.
(28:02):
Are you noticing the same trendthat I'm noticing, and I just
noticed this right now?
But this is why this is fun.
So I'm just going to look atfor the ones I've done so far,
and actually I'll go ahead anddo all of them, because I just
realized the trend continueswith all of them.
So one month after the electionin 2000, the Dow is down 3.06.
(28:26):
By years in, it's down one anda half.
So there's a rebound, prettysignificant rebound from one
month after the election to theend of the year 2004, markets up
5.47%.
(28:47):
One month after the election byyears in, the market's up 7.45%
.
I wouldn't call it a reboundbecause they're both up, but
continued increase in that40-50% range.
2008, the greatest economicdisaster of this century.
A month after the election down12.98%.
By years in down 8.82%.
(29:09):
So about a 40-50% bounce Down8.82%.
So about a 40-50% bounce.
2012, a month after theelection market down 1.30%.
By years end, down 1.06%.
Another rebound 2016,.
This is when Trump won for thefirst time.
One month after the election,the market's up 6.99%.
(29:34):
By a year's end, market's up7.80%.
Another increase 2020,.
This is when Biden wins Onemonth after the election, the
market's up 9.06%.
By year's end, market's up11.39%.
(29:58):
For the last and again this iskind of fun because I literally
just stumbled on this whilewe're talking and actually I can
go back even further 1996, onemonth after 5.85.
End of the year 6.04.
1992, up 0.74.
(30:19):
Year's end one and a half,that's double.
1988, market up 0.67%.
One month after the election,by year's end, up 1.93% Triple.
Okay.
So I got to go back to 1984 isthe first year that I see where
(30:40):
that trend does not dictate.
So that means for the last 40years, whichever direction the
market is, one month after the,the election.
This is not my opinion.
This is a statistical fact thatwe've just uncovered here
together my podcast, family andmyself for 40 consecutive years,
(31:05):
one month after the election,wherever the market is at that
point which would be so if theelection is first week of
November, you're talking firstweek of December Wherever it is
at that point, for 40 yearsconsecutively by the end of the
(31:26):
year.
So within those few weeks fromthe first week of December to
the end of the year, the marketis higher and in most cases
significantly higher.
In some cases as much as triplein 1988 with Reagan Actually
I'm sorry that would have beenactually George Bush Sr, his
first term to as low as 30 to40%, I would say just off the
(31:53):
top of my head from looking atthese numbers here, the average
bounce is about 70%.
That's helpful.
I might actually buy some stockthe first week of December here
for the first time since Ibought a bunch of stock when the
pandemic first hit in 2020, andwe were up 300 plus percent on
(32:14):
that.
So that's fun to know.
All right, I spent more time onthat than I thought, but I'm
kind of happy I did because I'mnot kidding, I actually might do
something there.
So let's talk about preciousmetals.
So on this, not on this podcastthis podcast didn't exist then,
but on a webinar we did thatI've referenced probably way too
many times in December of 2020,we projected that we thought
(32:37):
rapid inflation was going to bethe cause of gold prices and the
housing market having a massiveuptick, and at that time we
projected that we could see goldprices hit $2,500 an ounce in
the next five years, which itdid it a little early here this
year in 2024.
In August it hit $2,500.
And now, as I record this, it'sat $2,770, roughly just a
(33:04):
couple days ago.
It's hitting a record high on aregular basis, but hit the most
recent record high to, Ibelieve, 2791, somewhere right
around there.
So my gut on this and this isjust my gut if Trump wins the
election, I think we're likelyto see gold prices stabilize and
(33:27):
then gradually dip down alittle bit.
I think you're going to have asolid resistance in that $2,300,
$2,400 an ounce level, butit'll probably touch that a
little bit over the next six to12 months and then eventually
it's going to make its way backup into where it is now in that
$2,700 to $2,900 range over thenext two, three years, because
(33:51):
there's market sentiment thatTrump would help inflation.
There's regulations withtariffs that he's going to put
in place and deregulations thathe's going to put in place that
would lower energy costs andagain, I'm not being political,
that's just what it is.
That would mitigate inflationto some extent.
That would mitigate inflationto some extent, but there's
(34:12):
still some inflation that needsto work its way through the
system, for lack of a better wayto put it.
And gold and real estate arethe two, in my opinion, or at
least two of the best ways togauge that.
(34:36):
If Harris wins, I don't thinkit's going to be that different.
I think you might.
Initially, there's going to beprobably some wild swings either
way the next month from rightnow in the gold prices,
specifically because of publicperception.
But you never want to invest inin precious metals based on
public perception.
You want to be ahead of thecurve.
You want to invest based onpublic perception.
You want to be ahead of thecurve.
You want to invest based on theinflation data, because that's
really what gold is is.
It's an inflation hedge to itscore.
(34:57):
So you want to use thatinflation data from a factual
standpoint and then, when thepublic perception goes up and
down which is meaningless, it'sjust so silly you want to
actually take advantage of thosebuying opportunities.
So that's why I tell you, ifTrump gets elected and I'm
correct with my little gistthere, which is all it is is a
gist that it dips a bit If youbelieve in the fundamentals of
(35:21):
inflation, that'd be the time tobuy some more Harris, I
wouldn't be surprised if shewins, if gold actually pops up
real quick over the next 30 dayshere, that would be the time
when I would probably sell,because then you're gonna see it
level off.
It'll ultimately level off toroughly the same place over the
next two to five years, two toten years, especially over the
(35:45):
next 20 years, going out thatfar.
But it's these little spikesthat we can look at where I
would tell you, if Trump wins,gold is more likely than not to
dip a little bit.
If Harris wins, it's morelikely to be the same or pop up
a little bit.
That's my opinion and I hopethat's helpful to you.
Honestly, it's funny because assomebody that I'm thankful I've
(36:08):
been blessed to buy 600 housesin my life or more than that.
I'm thankful I've been blessedto buy 600 houses in my life or
more than that.
These are units and you know,hopefully I'll be blessed to buy
many more, and it's myexpertise.
It's what I obsess about themost.
The housing market is the mostperplexing projection to make,
honestly, to where you couldreally see it going either way.
(36:30):
I mean it's largely, in myopinion, the inflation we've
seen over the last half decadehere.
That's propping up the values,but I don't see any scenario
where the interest rates can belowered to the point to make a
massive swing.
(36:50):
So what I think my initialprojection is and we're going to
do a more detailed projectionlook at some data and look at
who wins the election.
Look at what their policieslook like.
They're going to be out of thegate once they actually get in
there.
Whoever it is, make a better2025 projection than this.
My initial reaction, my gutinstinct on it is, is that we're
(37:10):
probably going to be fairlyflat on values over the next two
plus years here in the housingmarket, which I think is fine.
I know is fine because theopportunity doesn't lie in the
value of the property.
If you're relying on the valueof a home or an investment
property as your investmentstrategy, you might as well buy
gold or some other inflationhedge, because that's a wise and
(37:35):
tide floats, all boats.
There's no skill in that andthere's no real projection in
that.
You're at the roulette tableagain, just like you are with
the stock market.
If your strategy is based oncashflow, like ours, is creating
the highest possible cash oncash return, then you're
protected either way to someextent.
And what I mean by that is andthis is a great full circle
thing of what I said at the topto where there's a strategy for,
(37:58):
regardless of who wins theelection.
So let's just say we assume ifHarris wins we're more likely to
see continued rapid inflationlike what we've seen, and if
Trump wins we're less likely tosee that.
If that's the case which I'mnot necessarily saying it is,
but I think that's the generalperception.
(38:19):
So let's say it is Guess whatIf we see more rapid inflation?
All of the assets we alreadyown are going to dramatically go
up in value and we can use realestate as an inflation hedge to
counteract that.
And one thing we really haven'tseen the folks that.
We've seen the values hidden inthe housing market.
(38:41):
We've seen it in the cost ofthings.
What we're gonna see next andthis is a projection prediction,
whatever you wanna call it, butI feel pretty strong and good
about making we're gonna see itstart to catch up with the
income side of things over thenext few years.
Here we're going to see whichmeans for us the cost of a hotel
(39:02):
stay, which already has gone upsignificantly.
It's going to go up more thecost of an Airbnb stay.
In our case, we invest invacation rentals, luxury
vacation homes, your wages, ourwages, our revenue it's all
gonna go up because the dollar'sworth less.
That has to happen, I don'tcare who the president is.
So there's an opportunity there.
Let's say Trump gets in thereand let's say inflation rate is
(39:27):
mitigated, but as a hiddenresult of that, the housing
market dips 20%.
It's heavenly to me as far asan investment strategy goes, and
I'm grateful for that, becausewhat that means is I still stand
(39:48):
by, whether it's Trump orHarris the revenue side of
things, the income side ofthings, is going to catch up
with the inflation rates we'veseen, with the cost of
everything over the next fewyears.
So what does that mean, too, ifwe're an investor, if I'm an
investor and I own a rentalproperty and I bought that
(40:09):
property on the basis of gettinga 20% cash on cash return.
So I invest a million dollars.
My million dollars is earningme $200,000 net operating income
every year.
That's 20%.
I bought it on those premises.
Let's say the market dips by20%, so now my property is worth
(40:30):
800 grand instead of a millionbucks.
Okay, let's say the inflationcontinues to kick in and it's
just a small amount.
Say it's up 20% in the cost.
So now my 200 grand in rentalrevenue, net operating income
(40:51):
for that property is now 240,000.
My value of the property is 800.
So what do I do?
If my strategy is based on cashflow, I go buy a property just
like the one I've already gotfor 800,000.
Now I'm getting 240,000 on my$800,000 investment.
(41:13):
Now I'm getting a 30% cash oncash return instead of 20 for
the same exact strategy.
Nothing's changed.
Nothing has changed with thestrategy or the execution
thereof.
The only thing is inflation anddeflation working in concept to
better our investment strategy.
(41:34):
And on the original one that Iown, I don't care that it's
worth 800 and I've paid amillion for it.
I don't care at all, becauseI'm either still generating the
same 20% cash on cash returnthat I originally started with
or now I'm getting a 24% cash oncash return on that, because
I've increased my rents and mypurchase price is obviously
(41:56):
still the same because I alreadybought it.
I already own it.
So there's a strategy,regardless of who wins, and both
are equally effective in theshort term and in the long term
as well, in my humble opinion.
So I'm going to give you guysand this is more for the YouTube
, because apparently people likeit when I do this just to give
you guys an idea of thevolatility and how powerful
(42:21):
rapid inflation is, and justgeneral inflation over time
always is the average price ofsome items from 1980.
So I'm not going back 100 years, I'm not going back that far,
I'm going back to 1980.
And I'm going to do how it'sevolved over time, not because a
(42:45):
car is worth more, not becausea cheeseburger is worth more,
but because the dollar is worthless.
And I really want to ram it ineven more than I already have on
the inflation standpoint, howpowerful it is when we can use
an inflation hedge and howdangerous it can be.
For if you don't.
So 1980, the average price of acar in 1980 was $7,574.
(43:12):
That's for a brand new car.
A couple examples a Buick Regal, which I remember those pretty
well, was $8,085.
So that's spending.
The average price of a new carin 2020 was according to this
anyway it sounds low was $28,000.
The current average price of acar four years after 2020, 44
(43:38):
years after 1980 is $48,000.
So I'm doing off the top of myhead.
That's about a 600% more than600% increase in the average
price of a car over the last 44years.
And what's cool?
I don't know if it's cool ornot, but what's important about
(43:58):
inflation?
You'll notice, if you look atany inflation chart you'll go
back over 30 years, 40 years, 50years, whatever you're looking
at, and you'll see it's prettygradual and it all evens out
over time.
But you look at the spikes like76 to 1980, 2020 to 2024 right
now, really, 2020 to 2026 iswhat I've been projecting it
(44:24):
would be.
You see, these spikes, you'llhave these long periods where
it's flat or it's minimalinflation, and then you'll have
these two to six year spikeswhere it's flat or it's minimal
inflation, and then you'll havethese two to six year spikes
where it's just astronomical, towhere you see things double or
quadruple or go up 600%, likegold.
I mean, you can look back, goldwent up.
(44:44):
Well, it doubled just in oneyear, 1979 to 1980.
It doubled from $307 an ounce.
I'm doing this off the top ofmy head but you can fact check
me, it's accurate $307 an ounceto $614 an ounce from 1979 to
1980 at the year end close andit peaked at around 860 in 1980.
(45:06):
So even more than doublethroughout the course of the
year.
You might see the same thingnow In 2023, you had points
where gold was around $1,700.
I just told you it's almost$2,800 now.
So that's already a nearly 70%80% increase in a year.
If it continued on the trendcomparable to 1980, you might
(45:30):
see gold hit $3,200 to $3,400 anounce.
But that actually, now that Ithink about it too, it's in line
with what we've seenhistorically, because that data
matches up.
Our interest rates are not ashigh and our inflation, I don't
believe, as bad as it is.
It's not as bad as it was in1980, bringing it full circle to
(45:52):
my point about how this has allhappened before, for the most
part, a lot of it has.
Anyway, I'm going to give youone more fun one, guys here, and
then I'll leave you alone andlet you either go vote or go
watch the voting electionresults.
The price of a cheeseburger I'mkind of curious about that.
(46:12):
Let's see, I'm going of curiousabout that.
Let's see I'm going to do.
Let's stick with 1980cheeseburgers here.
The average cost of a fast foodburger in 1980 was 34 cents.
Now I remember pretty vividlythe oh and today the average
(46:37):
cost of a fast food burger isalmost six bucks.
I remember pretty vividly the99 cent Whopper advertisements
and Carl's Jr.
I remember they came out withtheir $6 burger, which at the
time it was funny because the $6burger, the whole point behind
that is they were saying oh, ifyou go to a restaurant, a fancy
(46:59):
restaurant, order a cheeseburger, it's going to be six bucks.
We'll give you our $6 burgerfor two bucks or whatever it was
.
Now the $6 burger at Carl's Jris like $11 or 12 bucks or
whatever it is, and thatrestaurant burger is like 25,
you 12 bucks or whatever it is,and that restaurant burger is
like 25,.
So whatever it is.
So you can see how that goesand let's do what do I want?
(47:20):
What's a fun one?
We haven't done so.
The average home price, whichwe've talked about this a lot
Well, so I'll go through forthose of you that haven't heard
our other content.
The average home price goingback to 1940 was $2,938.
(47:48):
The average home price for 1980, I got two numbers here.
One that we've used before is$47,200.
Got another one here that says$73,600, which these do seem to
vary a little bit.
The average home price today,which I don't know the answer to
this.
I'm excited to know the averagehome price today.
(48:17):
Oh, this is for California,okay, $860,200.
Yeah, and the average homeprice nationwide for the United
States $420,000.
That's up from 2020 when it was$338,000, according to this
statistic I see here, and thisis as of September 2024.
(48:39):
These are the numbers publishedhere, so you can see guys over
80 plus years.
If, over the course of oneperson's average lifetime,
you've had the average cost of ahome go up about 130 to 140 X
If you're in California it'smore like 200.
But nationwide, about 130 to150 X over the course of your
(49:04):
lifetime, think about howpowerful that is.
And if you're somebody that'slistening to this and you're
somebody in your 20s that wantsto own a home, and you're
somebody in your 20s that wantsto own a home, think about when
you retire, which I know is hardto think about when you're 20.
But let's you know, think aboutwhen you're in your 60s, when
you're in your 80s or even whenyou're 40s.
(49:25):
Look at this gap, look at thisgain over a 20-year period, and
I would encourage all of you, ifyou have an opportunity to own
a home, capitalize on it.
That's one of the things thatI'm saddened by with this.
Whatever this generation is Ys,ks, xs, I don't know what you
(49:47):
are, but whatever thisgeneration is that is more prone
to renting than buying, I mean,hey, that's great for me and my
partners as investors, morerenters the better.
But if you want to betteryourself as an investor
individual, do your best to findcreative ways to own, and
(50:08):
you're going to be grateful thatyou did in the long term.
So I probably rambled way morethan I thought.
I thought this was going to belike a 20 minute episode, but I
get excited about these numbers.
So, anyway, I don't know whenthis is going to post.
We're going to try to do minor,minor editing and just throw it
up there on election night.
(50:29):
We're now about two hours awayfrom polls starting to close and
hearing those results.
I hope that you guys havebenefited from this in some way.
I sincerely thank you for beingpart of my network.
I really do.
Again, if you can, please like,subscribe, give us a rating if
you want.
But more importantly, guys,like I said at the top, remember
(50:54):
whatever stresses you'refeeling, whatever worry you're
feeling.
So many millions of others arefeeling the same thing and for
all of us I hope, pray andbelieve it's gonna be okay, and
there's always a strategy on theinvestment side of things.
I can tell you it's gonna beokay, because there's always a
strategy, there's always anopportunity that any action in
(51:17):
the markets takes that we cancapitalize on, and then it's
just up to us to do so.
So, thank you guys, appreciateyou, happy election night and we
'll see you soon.
(52:22):
Take care, thank you.
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