December 7, 2024 • 30 mins
What if the dynamics of precious metals and cryptocurrency investments could be more predictable? Join us in this enlightening episode of the Stephan Piscano Podcast as we navigate the financial currents shaping today's economy. We kick things off with a heartfelt holiday greeting and an exploration of our predictions post-election, particularly how the gold market reacted in unexpected ways after Trump's victory. Despite correctly forecasting an immediate dip, the plunge to $2,570 per ounce was a wake-up call on market volatility. With a personal anecdote, we underscore why real estate remains our inflation hedge of choice, contrasting it with the rollercoaster ride that gold investments have become.
Bold political shifts are reshaping the crypto landscape—what does a pro-crypto administration mean for Bitcoin's potential? We take a closer look at the rapid rise of Bitcoin, from under $40,000 to nearly $100,000, fueled by favorable political winds and economic changes. Through personal tales of triumphs and setbacks in the crypto space, we reflect on how government regulation and media hype have played roles in past booms. Could this be the dawn of a new era for cryptocurrency? We muse over the possibilities, considering the future trajectory in this evolving political climate.
As the year winds down, we offer a market update that covers stocks, Bitcoin, and the implications of interest rate trends. With ongoing inflation and potential wage hikes, opportunities for increased cash flow and investments abound. Can Bitcoin soar to $200,000 by 2025? We share our thoughts on this potential milestone while also expressing deep gratitude to our listeners. Your engagement has been the cornerstone of our success, and we invite you to continue being part of our community. As we sign off, warm holiday wishes extend beyond the airwaves, looking ahead to more engaging content in the weeks to come.
www.stephanpiscanopodcast.com
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
Thank you very much.
All right, guys.
Thank you so much and welcome.
This is Stephan Piscano withthe Stephan Piscano Podcast.
(00:56):
And happy holidays guys.
Merry Christmas, happy belatedThanksgiving.
I really appreciate all of youguys tuning in.
Belated Thanksgiving.
I really appreciate all of youguys tuning in.
And if you are listening onApple Podcasts or Spotify or my
new favorite here, which is kindof the one that we've gotten
the most action on Player FM, Ireally appreciate you.
(01:17):
Please subscribe to the show sothat you can get access to our
episodes as soon as they comeout.
We're going to have some reallyfun stuff coming in the next
few weeks, got some greatinterviews that have already
been recorded that we're just inthe process of editing now, and
fun stuff for the holidays, too, coming up here as well.
If you are on YouTube, pleasedo subscribe to the channel,
(01:40):
give us some comments that's thebest and easiest way for you to
engage with me and with ourguests on the show as well and
give us your feedback on whatyou want to see for future
episodes or if you'd like to bea guest, because I'm really
grateful.
We've got some incrediblytalented people in the network
and a lot of people that arelistening to this are friends,
(02:02):
partners or just really talentedpeople that I have not gotten
to meet yet and we would love tohear you share your story.
And I apologize, guys, to behonest with you, with the
holidays here, we have not donean episode for the last couple
of weeks and that's largely justbecause I've had family in town
and we've been bouncing aroundthe West Coast here enjoying
(02:25):
Thanksgiving and all that funstuff that it entails.
And I'm actually going to throwit out there that if anybody in
the network is in the podcastindustry and you want to be part
of our team, please reach outat StephanPiscanoPodcastcom.
Please reach out atStephanPiscanoPodcastcom, send
us your resume or just ping me.
(02:45):
We can chat a little bit,because it's apparently harder
to find an editor than you wouldthink and I haven't had time to
do it myself.
So I mainly just wanted to hopon with you, do a little check
in here, as we're now more thana month since the election.
We did our election specialback on.
Well, on election day, november5th.
(03:07):
We're going to talk today aboutsome of the things that we
projected or predicted mighthappen.
Look at what actually hashappened.
Some things we were right aboutsome things that we were wrong
about, some things that havebeen surprising, even if we were
right about it.
I'm going to tease up a littlebit of some of the future things
we're going to have coming inthe next couple of weeks here on
(03:28):
episodes we've got going intoChristmas time here what we see
for 2025 in all the financialmarket.
But, honestly, mainly, guys, Ijust wanted to hop on because
I'm really grateful for theincredible growth we've had with
the show.
We started this a couple monthsago.
It's something I've wanted todo for a long time and really
(03:50):
didn't think that we would getthe kind of traction that we've
gotten.
So, again, thank you so much,and I just wanted to wish you
guys, myself, a happy belatedThanksgiving and Merry Christmas
and see if we can get you someinformation here that'll make
2025 more prosperous for you.
I hope so.
On that note, let's get into it.
(04:10):
So back on November 5th, whenwe did our election special
episode there, we predicted alot of things.
I spent a lot of time reallytalking about the precious
metals market, the stock marketspecifically.
You might recall, we saw somejust kind of shocking trends in
the stock market specifically.
You might recall, we saw somejust kind of shocking trends in
the stock market for after anelection that it was amazing how
(04:31):
consistent they were.
And at that time and if you'reon YouTube I'm pulling up the
chart here you can see back onelection day closed at $2,746 an
ounce, and at that time weindicated that we thought if
Trump won the election which heobviously did that you would
(04:54):
probably see an immediate dropin gold and we thought that it
would probably ultimately,around the end of the year, have
some resistance to hover above$2,400 an ounce.
So this is one that we reallynailed it.
We were 100% correct in ourassessment.
But I've been shocked by twothings, even though we were
(05:15):
technically right.
So you can see about $2,750 onElection Day.
The very next day it dropsalmost 100 an ounce A little
rebound there.
The very next day it dropsalmost 100 an ounce, a little
rebound there.
And then a week after, a littlemore than a week, on November
15th, gold dips all the way downto $2,570 an ounce.
(05:46):
So to me I'm not a big, eventhough I strongly believe in
precious metals and it's aninflation hedge because I'm so
invested in real estate and tome real estate is the best
inflation hedge, because notonly does it hedge against the
devaluation of the dollar, butit also something that can
create monthly and annual cashflow for you as we continue to
hedge that way as well.
And it's an asset that has atangible use, whereas a bar of
gold or a bag of silver coinsyou can just look at it and put
(06:08):
it under your mattress, a homeor an apartment building or a
trailer park or whatever yourreal estate asset may be, has
tangible benefits that canbenefit you as an investor and
you as an individual human beingas well.
But I did play around a littlebit just with a very small
amount of gold Once I saw itdipped and I actually got lucky
(06:29):
on this one I hit it right onthe button.
On November 15th I got a littlebit of gold at that 2570 number
.
I actually got it at 2572, so Ialmost hit the bottom.
Perfectly Because I was shocked,even though we predicted it
would have an immediate drop.
Perfectly Because I was shocked, even though we predicted it
would have an immediate drop.
It felt like the market wasalmost overreacting to Trump's
(06:54):
win.
Because, even though I dobelieve that we're going to see
interest rates lowered, I dobelieve we're going to see
inflation and the rapidinflation we've been
experiencing the last four orfive years here slowed.
There's still a lot ofinflation that needs to take
place and will continue to takeplace to have the currency catch
up with all the money that'sbeen printed and spent over the
last five to ten years really,so felt like a little bit of an
(07:18):
overreaction.
So we actually picked a littlebit of gold up in that $25.70
range and this is the lucky partthat also surprised me.
Then, you see, a week afterthat, it was back up to 2737 an
ounce and now, at the time I'mrecording this, which, because
I've got family in town andwe're running around so much
(07:38):
having a good holiday time hereI'm recording this about four in
the morning, west Coast time.
So at the time I'm recordingthis, on December 7th, gold is
right under 2660 an ounce, whichthat's a little higher than I
thought we would be at thispoint.
I'm actually kind of shocked tosee.
(08:19):
But if we go back even go backto 2012, when gold was at $17.35
.
Gold has been, even though it'sknown as kind of the ultimate
inflation hedge, it actually hasnot kept up with inflation over
the last 20 years and so it'sbeen artificially held down for
(08:42):
so long that that this level inthat mid-24 to 2800 an ounce
range is about where it wouldneed to be to properly keep up
with inflation over the last 40years.
If you really go back, thisparticular chart's only going
back to 2012,.
But if you really went back toit and look at some of the other
(09:03):
videos we've got on YouTube,some of the other podcast
episodes we've done where we didgo back to 1980 or even further
than that, we went back to 1944, and one of them you'll see
this probably really is aboutthe real range that it should
have been for quite some timeand it's just now caught up.
So, honestly, there's nothingthat would surprise me at this
(09:24):
point.
If you were to tell me a yearfrom now that gold was going to
be 1800 an ounce, I'd believeyou.
If you were going to tell me ayear from now that gold was
going to be 1,800 an ounce, I'dbelieve you.
If you were going to tell me itwas going to be 2,900 an ounce,
I'd believe you.
And everything in between, Istill think our projection that
we made on election night thatthere's going to be strong
resistance in that 23 to 2,400an ounce range.
(09:45):
I believe that's prettyaccurate.
That's just a guess.
I'm not a precious metalsexpert but looking at the trends
, the historical data, realizingthat we are still going to need
to have some inflation in themarket, that would be a likely
guess.
So if you had me put aprojection on it for December of
2025, and hopefully I'm stilldoing the podcast then and we
(10:06):
can check in and see if we werecorrect I would say the most
likely thing is projection on itfor December of 2025.
And hopefully I'm still doingthe podcast then and we can
check in and see if we werecorrect.
I would say the most likelything is that you're going to
see gold somewhere between 23 to2,800 an ounce, which I know
that's a wide range, but thatwould be our projection there.
The biggest thing that surprisedme and we didn't talk at all
(10:28):
about Bitcoin on the electionspecial and honestly, I've been
burned by crypto so many times.
I really kind of don'trecommend it and I'm not going
to buy any this time, becauseevery time I, if I, buy crypto,
you should probably sell allyours, because that usually
means the last 10 years thatit's getting ready to drop.
(10:48):
But for those of you thatbought crypto earlier this year
2024, you are a very, very happyperson because you can see,
going back to January, you couldget in at under $40,000 for one
Bitcoin, and I'm actually madat myself that we missed on this
(11:08):
one a little bit and didn'ttalk about it, because in
hindsight, it makes perfectsense why we're seeing this
demographic that would beintrigued by crypto, both as a
hedge against the devaluation ofthe dollar, just like with gold
(11:32):
and with real estate, but alsothis is the first time in
history, and obviously cryptohasn't been around for that long
.
It's been around for, oh gosh,I guess about 20 years now a
little less than that, which isshocking to even realize it's
been around that long.
But this is the first time inhistory where we've had a
pro-crypto president of theUnited States of America Trump
(11:56):
and his family and his familycompany announced right before
the election that they weregoing to have their own crypto
platform come out and, I believe, their own coin or token, or
whatever that may be, come out,and so it's a very different
tone than we've ever seen before.
So it makes perfect sense whenyou look at it On election day,
(12:18):
you could buy one Bitcoin forabout $68,000.
Now, a month later, it's rightunder, just right under,
$100,000.
So that's a heck of a return.
That's in.
Uh, and in the last month, yeah, that's a 33 to 35 percent
(12:39):
return in about a month, sothat's a 47 percent right around
there anyway, return in at thetime that I record this, in 33
days, 47% return If you boughtcrypto the day before the
election and you own it now.
If you bought Bitcoin rather,then you've made right under 50%
(13:02):
return on your investment amonth, which, honestly, if it
was me, I'd be selling it rightnow.
But the reasons for this, in myhumble opinion, would be you had
a lot of people that, onceTrump won the election,
(13:22):
anticipated a decline in theprice of gold, and so, in
selling portions of theirposition in precious metals,
crypto and real estate would bethe two most likely places to
put that into, and it's a littleeasier to put a portion of your
portfolio right intocryptocurrency as opposed to
going out and just immediatelybuying a house, and so that
makes sense, and then it's goingto be really interesting to see
(13:44):
what it's like, like I said,for the first time in history,
having a president that is procryptocurrency, pro Bitcoin,
because we really haven't seenthat, and my personal
experiences with crypto, whichhasn't been a whole lot, I gosh.
I actually had a web developerback in 2012 that worked for me
when we were building our sitelistedby com, and he told me
(14:08):
about Bitcoin back then whenreally nobody in the general
public knew much about it oreven what it was, and he tried
to get me to get some and Ididn't really listen to him and
had no idea what the heck he wastalking about.
If I would have bought that,that probably wouldn't be
talking to me right now, becausewe would.
I hope I got to check in withhim and actually see if he still
(14:28):
has any.
I hope he does for his.
He was a good guy, but anyhow,um then, uh, I actually did buy
some right at the end of 2017.
And we had this incredible, I'llnever forget it the guy who
helped me buy it, cause this wasback when it was still
difficult to buy if you weren'tkind of a tech savvy person and
(14:50):
you know they didn't have allthe platforms that they do now,
or you can just hit a button andbuy it.
You had to get your wallet andyou had to do all this wacky
stuff that a lot of people justaren't familiar with doing.
So I had a guy that I knew thatI trusted help me buy some.
And I bought Ripple and Iremember, among other things, I
(15:10):
remember I made a 450% profit inabout a month a little less
than a month on it.
And I asked him I said you know, I kind of feel like I should
sell some of this, and he said,dude, you haven't even tasted
the profit yet.
You got a whole.
Now, a week or so after he saidthat it went down 90% and
crashed.
And then I had a similarexperience in 2020, the last
(15:36):
cycle where things really boomed, with crypto going into 2021.
But the reason I'm bringing allthis up is both of those times,
what played a huge role was thegovernment and the media
working collectively together tobasically shut down the crypto
(15:58):
boom for lack of a better wordand I'm recording this, like I
said, pretty early in themorning, so my brain's a little
slower today, so I apologize butwhat they did was suppress the
market with a combination ofgovernment regulation and bad
press, and both times it wasreally effective.
I mean, it was immediate and, Ithink, gosh.
(16:19):
Back in 2017, I think Bitcoinwe were all excited.
It shot up to about 16,000 andthen it was back down to $4,000
to $7,000 fairly quickly.
2020, 2021, it got up above$60,000 and then it was back
down in the $20,000 range.
This will be interesting because, as it reaches that elusive
(16:41):
$100,000 marker which it's justlike with gold how I've been
talking about gold hitting$2,500 an ounce for so many
years to finally and you knowwhat's going to happen you know
what's coming.
If you follow inflation, if youjust follow common sense, you
know this is all coming.
But to see it, it's still wildand it also kind of makes you
feel old a little bit too.
(17:03):
But once Bitcoin hits that100,000 elusive number that
we've all been talking about forso many years, that's a pretty
historic milestone, guys, andthe pitch for that has always
been there's a finite amount ofBitcoin, just like there's a
finite amount of gold.
But the difference is, withBitcoin specifically, we know
(17:26):
exactly what that amount is andit's not going to go up or go
down.
You can mine for Bitcoin that'sunclaimed, so to speak but the
amount of Bitcoin that exists isgoing to remain the same.
Whereas with gold, it can bemined and actually, when you're
at prices that we're at rightnow above $2,500 an ounce, in
(17:48):
that range it makes it much moreprofitable to mine for gold.
And then you see gold miningincrease and then you see that
affect the price a little bittoo, whereas Bitcoin just kind
of is what it is.
So I'm really excited.
I'm not going to buy any.
I've made my mistakes with thecrypto too many times to get
burned by it again but just as afan of the financial markets,
(18:10):
I'm really excited and curiousto see the impact of not only
not having the government andthe media the media still might
but not having the governmentand the media collectively work
to destroy the value ofcryptocurrency, but actually
potentially work to enhance it,which that's the other reason
(18:32):
why, just off, pure speculation,I'm assuming that this jumped
up that because Trump ispro-crypto, we're going to see
positive regulations as opposedto negative.
You had people taking assetsout of gold coming into the
market and in my humble opinion,that's what has us now, as I
(18:53):
record this, at a prettyhistoric nearly $100,000 price
point for Bitcoin, which prettywild that back in the day I
guess around 2011, 2012,somebody traded a couple
thousand Bitcoin for a pepperonipizza or whatever the heck it
was.
So we'll see what happens withthat.
I'm not going to make a Bitcoinprojection but again, I'm
(19:16):
really curious to see where itall goes.
The stock market this is the onethat we kind of nailed the most
, that we kind of nailed themost and I'm not going to bore
you with it.
But I highly recommend, ifyou're a stock market investor
which most people are, whetherthey know it or not, in one way
or another, either actively asan individual or through your
IRA or your company or yourportfolio manager or whatever it
(19:36):
may be I highly recommend youguys go back and watch our
election special, because wewent through all the data back
to 1980 and the last howevermany election cycles that is,
and we looked at the trends andwe saw gosh.
It's extremely likely we'regoing to see a market boom in
(19:57):
the stock market and the Dow,specifically between the
election and the end of the year.
And you you can see, the daybefore the election the market
closed.
The Dow Jones IndustrialAverage closed at 41,794.
And at the time I'm recordingthis, we're up to 44,642, which
(20:17):
actually, from the projectionsthat we had just off purely
historical data.
I hate the stock market.
To me it's a casino but we didsee an opportunity there that we
made you guys in the networkand listeners of this podcast
aware of.
Historically, the market shootsup right after an election and
we would still have, if it holdsto those trends, we would still
(20:39):
have a little room to gobetween now and the end of 2024,
going into 2025.
So we nailed that one.
My advice if I gave you adviceon the stock market and on
Bitcoin, I'd say it's a prettygood time to take those gains
somewhere between now and theend of the year.
That's just me.
(21:00):
I would definitely be.
If you were smart enough andactive enough and engaged to
where you bought Bitcoin rightbefore the election or you own
some, I would be offloading aportion of my portfolio in that
right now and actually maybeeven putting it into the savings
account, which I would normallynever recommend.
(21:22):
But I think there's going to besome incredible opportunities.
I'm not saying that we won'tsee $200,000 Bitcoin by the end
of 2025.
Actually, I think that's fairlypossible, maybe even probable
that we'll see it increase moreover the next 12 months, not
decrease.
But I think this is a bit justlike I said, with gold going
(21:45):
down.
I think this is a bit of anoverreaction for it to happen
that quick, and I think you'llhave opportunities such a
volatile asset, if you want tocall it that that you're going
to have opportunities to takeyour profits now and buy back in
, if that's what you wanted todo in that 70 to 80 range before
(22:06):
it goes up again.
Yeah, this was yeah, gosh, yeah.
Look at that 7500 back in 2019and gosh, it was.
I'd forgotten that, but it wasunder 10 000 as recently as 2020
.
So 10x return then, and about a6x return just in the last two
(22:26):
years.
Kudos to anybody that ownsBitcoin.
Good for you guys.
The last thing I wanted toupdate you on and this is one we
talked a lot about in some ofour previous episodes as well is
just interest rates.
This is more in line with whatwe expected.
It's just interest rates.
This is more in line with whatwe expected, especially with
Trump winning the election.
(22:47):
There's a lot of optimism aboutthe economy.
There's a lot of optimism aboutinflation decreasing, so to
speak.
So you're seeing a little bitof good news just yesterday that
the average rate on a mortgage30-year mortgage falls to a
little under 6.7% Still nowherenear as low as we were, but a
(23:09):
lot better than it could havebeen.
So that's good news and that'ssomething, too that's
interesting that I talked aboutwhen the Fed did their first 50
basis point rate cut this yearin 2024, just back in September,
september 18th 2024, that weexpected that that was a little
bit of a fraudulent cut thatthey have a history of doing,
(23:31):
even though people say that theFed and government is not their
administration, is notnecessarily connected.
There has been a history of thathappening right before an
election, to kind of increasemorale, so to speak, and so we
expected that to be a little bitof a fraudulent rate cut.
I apologize, but you were right, because the mortgage rates did
(23:53):
not fall.
They actually went up a littlebit when that first 50 basis
point cut came into play, butnow they're starting to catch up
a little bit on theannouncements of the most recent
potential rate cuts coming and,like I said, with optimism
around the economy.
So I think this is going to bea pretty unique time, guys, to
(24:15):
where we still have credibleinflation.
That needs to take place andwill take place, and we said
that the whole time, regardlessof who the president is combined
with the economy and some jobgrowth there, as we still
recover from everything thathappened with the pandemic and
all that entails, combined withpotentially slightly lower rates
(24:40):
, I don't think we're going tosee as I've stayed consistent
with, I don't think we're goingto see dramatically lower
interest rates, but they aregoing to get a little bit lower.
And if we can combine it, I'dsay the target for me as an
investor would be, if we can getthose rates under 6% or at 6%,
combined with the inflationwe're going to continue to see,
(25:01):
combined with the optimism inthe economy and investing as a
whole and more cash flow beingpumped in, we could see a heck
of an opportunity on the buyingside and on the selling side.
It could be a really uniquemixture.
And one thing and this I wastalking to one of my mentors
earlier I guess yesterday nowabout this and he brought up a
(25:24):
good point that we're likelygoing to see income growth and
that hit for me to where I was,like.
You know what We've seen.
The inflation hit everythingfrom a cost standpoint.
You look at the cost of gas,you look at the cost of housing.
You look at materials, foodeverything's up, massively up
(25:46):
over the last five years, butwhat we haven't really seen is
the inflation hit on the incomeside, on the wages side, which
that always happens too.
You look back and actually I'mgoing to look it up right now
because I'm curious the averagewages, average salary let's look
(26:08):
at 1944, just for fun.
So the average salary in 1944was $1,582, which is insane.
So that's because, obviously,the dollar being worth much less
now, that you could also buy ahouse for, I believe, about
$2,938 in 1944.
(26:30):
Dollars in 1944.
So what I expect to happen,which is a positive thing, is
over the next two to four years,we're going to see inflation
also start to hit the wages, andthat's a positive thing for the
economy as well, to wherethat's more cash flow influx
into all of the financialmarkets, which makes everything
better.
And this is the cycle of life inthe United States of America
(26:52):
and in the world of howinflation affects things over
time and why I'm so obsessedwith it and why you hear me talk
about it on pretty much everyepisode that we've ever done of
just about anything.
So anyway, that's my, I'll callit my market, my holiday market
update for you guys.
But again, I mainly just wantedto hop on here and say hello,
(27:13):
wish you a Merry Christmas.
If I don't hop on another liveone before then, which is
probably pretty likely becausewe're going to be thankfully
getting to have some fun timewith the family, which is really
a blessing, and we're reallyenjoying that so far, so
hopefully we'll keep that going.
I do want to tell you too, I'mreally excited about our next
episode that I hope is going tobe edited in time to go live on
(27:34):
Monday of next week, so that'dbe a December 10th or 11th.
I did an interview about a monthago now with a really good
friend of mine just a great guy.
He's got an incredible story.
His name is Robert Gagliano andhe actually is going to tell us
about how he found his faithand at one point 50 plus years
(27:56):
ago, was on the run from themafia, among other things, and,
through just an incredibleblessing in his life, was able
to find God and sobriety andlead a very incredible and
productive, successful life thelast 50 plus years.
It's a great story, a littlebit outside the norm of what we
normally talk about.
(28:16):
It was a very long episode, sothat's why it's taken a little
longer to edit too.
So I apologize, but definitelyyou guys are going to want to be
subscribed and hear that one.
There's a lot that you canlearn.
I mean, he's a real estateinvestor and agent as well, so a
lot of things that we'll stilltalk about on the real estate
side, but I just think that'llbe a fun one.
Anyway, guys, thank you so much.
(28:36):
Truly appreciate you being apart of our network and our
family here.
Again, if you can like the show, support the show, follow the
show, tweet it I don't know dowhatever you can.
We really appreciate it.
And the most fun thing is whenwe get some comments from you on
YouTube, which our handle there, or whatever you call it, our
username is Vacation WealthPartners.
(28:58):
That's also, by the way, thoseof you, especially our big
following of awesome people onPlayer FM if you come and
subscribe on Vacation WealthPartners YouTube, that's where
you get to showcase more of ouractual properties that we buy,
the vacation rentals we investin and some of the actual
strategies that we execute inreal life, which is fun too.
(29:20):
So I'd love to have you be partof our network there as well.
But, thank you guys.
So much, prosperous remainderof 2024 and 2025 and an
incredible Christmas or Hanukkahor whatever you get to
(30:04):
celebrate with the peopleclosest to you.
Thank you very much.
All right, guys.
Thank you so much and welcome.
This is Stephan Piscano withthe Stephan Piscano Podcast.
(00:56):
And happy holidays guys.
Merry Christmas, happy belatedThanksgiving.
I really appreciate all of youguys tuning in.
Belated Thanksgiving.
I really appreciate all of youguys tuning in.
And if you are listening onApple Podcasts or Spotify or my
new favorite here, which is kindof the one that we've gotten
the most action on Player FM, Ireally appreciate you.
(01:17):
Please subscribe to the show sothat you can get access to our
episodes as soon as they comeout.
We're going to have some reallyfun stuff coming in the next
few weeks, got some greatinterviews that have already
been recorded that we're just inthe process of editing now, and
fun stuff for the holidays, too, coming up here as well.
If you are on YouTube, pleasedo subscribe to the channel,
(01:40):
give us some comments that's thebest and easiest way for you to
engage with me and with ourguests on the show as well and
give us your feedback on whatyou want to see for future
episodes or if you'd like to bea guest, because I'm really
grateful.
We've got some incrediblytalented people in the network
and a lot of people that arelistening to this are friends,
(02:02):
partners or just really talentedpeople that I have not gotten
to meet yet and we would love tohear you share your story.
And I apologize, guys, to behonest with you, with the
holidays here, we have not donean episode for the last couple
of weeks and that's largely justbecause I've had family in town
and we've been bouncing aroundthe West Coast here enjoying
(02:25):
Thanksgiving and all that funstuff that it entails.
And I'm actually going to throwit out there that if anybody in
the network is in the podcastindustry and you want to be part
of our team, please reach outat StephanPiscanoPodcastcom.
Please reach out atStephanPiscanoPodcastcom, send
us your resume or just ping me.
(02:45):
We can chat a little bit,because it's apparently harder
to find an editor than you wouldthink and I haven't had time to
do it myself.
So I mainly just wanted to hopon with you, do a little check
in here, as we're now more thana month since the election.
We did our election specialback on.
Well, on election day, november5th.
(03:07):
We're going to talk today aboutsome of the things that we
projected or predicted mighthappen.
Look at what actually hashappened.
Some things we were right aboutsome things that we were wrong
about, some things that havebeen surprising, even if we were
right about it.
I'm going to tease up a littlebit of some of the future things
we're going to have coming inthe next couple of weeks here on
(03:28):
episodes we've got going intoChristmas time here what we see
for 2025 in all the financialmarket.
But, honestly, mainly, guys, Ijust wanted to hop on because
I'm really grateful for theincredible growth we've had with
the show.
We started this a couple monthsago.
It's something I've wanted todo for a long time and really
(03:50):
didn't think that we would getthe kind of traction that we've
gotten.
So, again, thank you so much,and I just wanted to wish you
guys, myself, a happy belatedThanksgiving and Merry Christmas
and see if we can get you someinformation here that'll make
2025 more prosperous for you.
I hope so.
On that note, let's get into it.
(04:10):
So back on November 5th, whenwe did our election special
episode there, we predicted alot of things.
I spent a lot of time reallytalking about the precious
metals market, the stock marketspecifically.
You might recall, we saw somejust kind of shocking trends in
the stock market specifically.
You might recall, we saw somejust kind of shocking trends in
the stock market for after anelection that it was amazing how
(04:31):
consistent they were.
And at that time and if you'reon YouTube I'm pulling up the
chart here you can see back onelection day closed at $2,746 an
ounce, and at that time weindicated that we thought if
Trump won the election which heobviously did that you would
(04:54):
probably see an immediate dropin gold and we thought that it
would probably ultimately,around the end of the year, have
some resistance to hover above$2,400 an ounce.
So this is one that we reallynailed it.
We were 100% correct in ourassessment.
But I've been shocked by twothings, even though we were
(05:15):
technically right.
So you can see about $2,750 onElection Day.
The very next day it dropsalmost 100 an ounce A little
rebound there.
The very next day it dropsalmost 100 an ounce, a little
rebound there.
And then a week after, a littlemore than a week, on November
15th, gold dips all the way downto $2,570 an ounce.
(05:46):
So to me I'm not a big, eventhough I strongly believe in
precious metals and it's aninflation hedge because I'm so
invested in real estate and tome real estate is the best
inflation hedge, because notonly does it hedge against the
devaluation of the dollar, butit also something that can
create monthly and annual cashflow for you as we continue to
hedge that way as well.
And it's an asset that has atangible use, whereas a bar of
gold or a bag of silver coinsyou can just look at it and put
(06:08):
it under your mattress, a homeor an apartment building or a
trailer park or whatever yourreal estate asset may be, has
tangible benefits that canbenefit you as an investor and
you as an individual human beingas well.
But I did play around a littlebit just with a very small
amount of gold Once I saw itdipped and I actually got lucky
(06:29):
on this one I hit it right onthe button.
On November 15th I got a littlebit of gold at that 2570 number
.
I actually got it at 2572, so Ialmost hit the bottom.
Perfectly Because I was shocked,even though we predicted it
would have an immediate drop.
Perfectly Because I was shocked, even though we predicted it
would have an immediate drop.
It felt like the market wasalmost overreacting to Trump's
(06:54):
win.
Because, even though I dobelieve that we're going to see
interest rates lowered, I dobelieve we're going to see
inflation and the rapidinflation we've been
experiencing the last four orfive years here slowed.
There's still a lot ofinflation that needs to take
place and will continue to takeplace to have the currency catch
up with all the money that'sbeen printed and spent over the
last five to ten years really,so felt like a little bit of an
(07:18):
overreaction.
So we actually picked a littlebit of gold up in that $25.70
range and this is the lucky partthat also surprised me.
Then, you see, a week afterthat, it was back up to 2737 an
ounce and now, at the time I'mrecording this, which, because
I've got family in town andwe're running around so much
(07:38):
having a good holiday time hereI'm recording this about four in
the morning, west Coast time.
So at the time I'm recordingthis, on December 7th, gold is
right under 2660 an ounce, whichthat's a little higher than I
thought we would be at thispoint.
I'm actually kind of shocked tosee.
(08:19):
But if we go back even go backto 2012, when gold was at $17.35
.
Gold has been, even though it'sknown as kind of the ultimate
inflation hedge, it actually hasnot kept up with inflation over
the last 20 years and so it'sbeen artificially held down for
(08:42):
so long that that this level inthat mid-24 to 2800 an ounce
range is about where it wouldneed to be to properly keep up
with inflation over the last 40years.
If you really go back, thisparticular chart's only going
back to 2012,.
But if you really went back toit and look at some of the other
(09:03):
videos we've got on YouTube,some of the other podcast
episodes we've done where we didgo back to 1980 or even further
than that, we went back to 1944, and one of them you'll see
this probably really is aboutthe real range that it should
have been for quite some timeand it's just now caught up.
So, honestly, there's nothingthat would surprise me at this
(09:24):
point.
If you were to tell me a yearfrom now that gold was going to
be 1800 an ounce, I'd believeyou.
If you were going to tell me ayear from now that gold was
going to be 1,800 an ounce, I'dbelieve you.
If you were going to tell me itwas going to be 2,900 an ounce,
I'd believe you.
And everything in between, Istill think our projection that
we made on election night thatthere's going to be strong
resistance in that 23 to 2,400an ounce range.
(09:45):
I believe that's prettyaccurate.
That's just a guess.
I'm not a precious metalsexpert but looking at the trends
, the historical data, realizingthat we are still going to need
to have some inflation in themarket, that would be a likely
guess.
So if you had me put aprojection on it for December of
2025, and hopefully I'm stilldoing the podcast then and we
(10:06):
can check in and see if we werecorrect I would say the most
likely thing is projection on itfor December of 2025.
And hopefully I'm still doingthe podcast then and we can
check in and see if we werecorrect.
I would say the most likelything is that you're going to
see gold somewhere between 23 to2,800 an ounce, which I know
that's a wide range, but thatwould be our projection there.
The biggest thing that surprisedme and we didn't talk at all
(10:28):
about Bitcoin on the electionspecial and honestly, I've been
burned by crypto so many times.
I really kind of don'trecommend it and I'm not going
to buy any this time, becauseevery time I, if I, buy crypto,
you should probably sell allyours, because that usually
means the last 10 years thatit's getting ready to drop.
(10:48):
But for those of you thatbought crypto earlier this year
2024, you are a very, very happyperson because you can see,
going back to January, you couldget in at under $40,000 for one
Bitcoin, and I'm actually madat myself that we missed on this
(11:08):
one a little bit and didn'ttalk about it, because in
hindsight, it makes perfectsense why we're seeing this
demographic that would beintrigued by crypto, both as a
hedge against the devaluation ofthe dollar, just like with gold
(11:32):
and with real estate, but alsothis is the first time in
history, and obviously cryptohasn't been around for that long
.
It's been around for, oh gosh,I guess about 20 years now a
little less than that, which isshocking to even realize it's
been around that long.
But this is the first time inhistory where we've had a
pro-crypto president of theUnited States of America Trump
(11:56):
and his family and his familycompany announced right before
the election that they weregoing to have their own crypto
platform come out and, I believe, their own coin or token, or
whatever that may be, come out,and so it's a very different
tone than we've ever seen before.
So it makes perfect sense whenyou look at it On election day,
(12:18):
you could buy one Bitcoin forabout $68,000.
Now, a month later, it's rightunder, just right under,
$100,000.
So that's a heck of a return.
That's in.
Uh, and in the last month, yeah, that's a 33 to 35 percent
(12:39):
return in about a month, sothat's a 47 percent right around
there anyway, return in at thetime that I record this, in 33
days, 47% return If you boughtcrypto the day before the
election and you own it now.
If you bought Bitcoin rather,then you've made right under 50%
(13:02):
return on your investment amonth, which, honestly, if it
was me, I'd be selling it rightnow.
But the reasons for this, in myhumble opinion, would be you had
a lot of people that, onceTrump won the election,
(13:22):
anticipated a decline in theprice of gold, and so, in
selling portions of theirposition in precious metals,
crypto and real estate would bethe two most likely places to
put that into, and it's a littleeasier to put a portion of your
portfolio right intocryptocurrency as opposed to
going out and just immediatelybuying a house, and so that
makes sense, and then it's goingto be really interesting to see
(13:44):
what it's like, like I said,for the first time in history,
having a president that is procryptocurrency, pro Bitcoin,
because we really haven't seenthat, and my personal
experiences with crypto, whichhasn't been a whole lot, I gosh.
I actually had a web developerback in 2012 that worked for me
when we were building our sitelistedby com, and he told me
(14:08):
about Bitcoin back then whenreally nobody in the general
public knew much about it oreven what it was, and he tried
to get me to get some and Ididn't really listen to him and
had no idea what the heck he wastalking about.
If I would have bought that,that probably wouldn't be
talking to me right now, becausewe would.
I hope I got to check in withhim and actually see if he still
(14:28):
has any.
I hope he does for his.
He was a good guy, but anyhow,um then, uh, I actually did buy
some right at the end of 2017.
And we had this incredible, I'llnever forget it the guy who
helped me buy it, cause this wasback when it was still
difficult to buy if you weren'tkind of a tech savvy person and
(14:50):
you know they didn't have allthe platforms that they do now,
or you can just hit a button andbuy it.
You had to get your wallet andyou had to do all this wacky
stuff that a lot of people justaren't familiar with doing.
So I had a guy that I knew thatI trusted help me buy some.
And I bought Ripple and Iremember, among other things, I
(15:10):
remember I made a 450% profit inabout a month a little less
than a month on it.
And I asked him I said you know, I kind of feel like I should
sell some of this, and he said,dude, you haven't even tasted
the profit yet.
You got a whole.
Now, a week or so after he saidthat it went down 90% and
crashed.
And then I had a similarexperience in 2020, the last
(15:36):
cycle where things really boomed, with crypto going into 2021.
But the reason I'm bringing allthis up is both of those times,
what played a huge role was thegovernment and the media
working collectively together tobasically shut down the crypto
(15:58):
boom for lack of a better wordand I'm recording this, like I
said, pretty early in themorning, so my brain's a little
slower today, so I apologize butwhat they did was suppress the
market with a combination ofgovernment regulation and bad
press, and both times it wasreally effective.
I mean, it was immediate and, Ithink, gosh.
(16:19):
Back in 2017, I think Bitcoinwe were all excited.
It shot up to about 16,000 andthen it was back down to $4,000
to $7,000 fairly quickly.
2020, 2021, it got up above$60,000 and then it was back
down in the $20,000 range.
This will be interesting because, as it reaches that elusive
(16:41):
$100,000 marker which it's justlike with gold how I've been
talking about gold hitting$2,500 an ounce for so many
years to finally and you knowwhat's going to happen you know
what's coming.
If you follow inflation, if youjust follow common sense, you
know this is all coming.
But to see it, it's still wildand it also kind of makes you
feel old a little bit too.
(17:03):
But once Bitcoin hits that100,000 elusive number that
we've all been talking about forso many years, that's a pretty
historic milestone, guys, andthe pitch for that has always
been there's a finite amount ofBitcoin, just like there's a
finite amount of gold.
But the difference is, withBitcoin specifically, we know
(17:26):
exactly what that amount is andit's not going to go up or go
down.
You can mine for Bitcoin that'sunclaimed, so to speak but the
amount of Bitcoin that exists isgoing to remain the same.
Whereas with gold, it can bemined and actually, when you're
at prices that we're at rightnow above $2,500 an ounce, in
(17:48):
that range it makes it much moreprofitable to mine for gold.
And then you see gold miningincrease and then you see that
affect the price a little bittoo, whereas Bitcoin just kind
of is what it is.
So I'm really excited.
I'm not going to buy any.
I've made my mistakes with thecrypto too many times to get
burned by it again but just as afan of the financial markets,
(18:10):
I'm really excited and curiousto see the impact of not only
not having the government andthe media the media still might
but not having the governmentand the media collectively work
to destroy the value ofcryptocurrency, but actually
potentially work to enhance it,which that's the other reason
(18:32):
why, just off, pure speculation,I'm assuming that this jumped
up that because Trump ispro-crypto, we're going to see
positive regulations as opposedto negative.
You had people taking assetsout of gold coming into the
market and in my humble opinion,that's what has us now, as I
(18:53):
record this, at a prettyhistoric nearly $100,000 price
point for Bitcoin, which prettywild that back in the day I
guess around 2011, 2012,somebody traded a couple
thousand Bitcoin for a pepperonipizza or whatever the heck it
was.
So we'll see what happens withthat.
I'm not going to make a Bitcoinprojection but again, I'm
(19:16):
really curious to see where itall goes.
The stock market this is the onethat we kind of nailed the most
, that we kind of nailed themost and I'm not going to bore
you with it.
But I highly recommend, ifyou're a stock market investor
which most people are, whetherthey know it or not, in one way
or another, either actively asan individual or through your
IRA or your company or yourportfolio manager or whatever it
(19:36):
may be I highly recommend youguys go back and watch our
election special, because wewent through all the data back
to 1980 and the last howevermany election cycles that is,
and we looked at the trends andwe saw gosh.
It's extremely likely we'regoing to see a market boom in
(19:57):
the stock market and the Dow,specifically between the
election and the end of the year.
And you you can see, the daybefore the election the market
closed.
The Dow Jones IndustrialAverage closed at 41,794.
And at the time I'm recordingthis, we're up to 44,642, which
(20:17):
actually, from the projectionsthat we had just off purely
historical data.
I hate the stock market.
To me it's a casino but we didsee an opportunity there that we
made you guys in the networkand listeners of this podcast
aware of.
Historically, the market shootsup right after an election and
we would still have, if it holdsto those trends, we would still
(20:39):
have a little room to gobetween now and the end of 2024,
going into 2025.
So we nailed that one.
My advice if I gave you adviceon the stock market and on
Bitcoin, I'd say it's a prettygood time to take those gains
somewhere between now and theend of the year.
That's just me.
(21:00):
I would definitely be.
If you were smart enough andactive enough and engaged to
where you bought Bitcoin rightbefore the election or you own
some, I would be offloading aportion of my portfolio in that
right now and actually maybeeven putting it into the savings
account, which I would normallynever recommend.
(21:22):
But I think there's going to besome incredible opportunities.
I'm not saying that we won'tsee $200,000 Bitcoin by the end
of 2025.
Actually, I think that's fairlypossible, maybe even probable
that we'll see it increase moreover the next 12 months, not
decrease.
But I think this is a bit justlike I said, with gold going
(21:45):
down.
I think this is a bit of anoverreaction for it to happen
that quick, and I think you'llhave opportunities such a
volatile asset, if you want tocall it that that you're going
to have opportunities to takeyour profits now and buy back in
, if that's what you wanted todo in that 70 to 80 range before
(22:06):
it goes up again.
Yeah, this was yeah, gosh, yeah.
Look at that 7500 back in 2019and gosh, it was.
I'd forgotten that, but it wasunder 10 000 as recently as 2020
.
So 10x return then, and about a6x return just in the last two
(22:26):
years.
Kudos to anybody that ownsBitcoin.
Good for you guys.
The last thing I wanted toupdate you on and this is one we
talked a lot about in some ofour previous episodes as well is
just interest rates.
This is more in line with whatwe expected.
It's just interest rates.
This is more in line with whatwe expected, especially with
Trump winning the election.
(22:47):
There's a lot of optimism aboutthe economy.
There's a lot of optimism aboutinflation decreasing, so to
speak.
So you're seeing a little bitof good news just yesterday that
the average rate on a mortgage30-year mortgage falls to a
little under 6.7% Still nowherenear as low as we were, but a
(23:09):
lot better than it could havebeen.
So that's good news and that'ssomething, too that's
interesting that I talked aboutwhen the Fed did their first 50
basis point rate cut this yearin 2024, just back in September,
september 18th 2024, that weexpected that that was a little
bit of a fraudulent cut thatthey have a history of doing,
(23:31):
even though people say that theFed and government is not their
administration, is notnecessarily connected.
There has been a history of thathappening right before an
election, to kind of increasemorale, so to speak, and so we
expected that to be a little bitof a fraudulent rate cut.
I apologize, but you were right, because the mortgage rates did
(23:53):
not fall.
They actually went up a littlebit when that first 50 basis
point cut came into play, butnow they're starting to catch up
a little bit on theannouncements of the most recent
potential rate cuts coming and,like I said, with optimism
around the economy.
So I think this is going to bea pretty unique time, guys, to
(24:15):
where we still have credibleinflation.
That needs to take place andwill take place, and we said
that the whole time, regardlessof who the president is combined
with the economy and some jobgrowth there, as we still
recover from everything thathappened with the pandemic and
all that entails, combined withpotentially slightly lower rates
(24:40):
, I don't think we're going tosee as I've stayed consistent
with, I don't think we're goingto see dramatically lower
interest rates, but they aregoing to get a little bit lower.
And if we can combine it, I'dsay the target for me as an
investor would be, if we can getthose rates under 6% or at 6%,
combined with the inflationwe're going to continue to see,
(25:01):
combined with the optimism inthe economy and investing as a
whole and more cash flow beingpumped in, we could see a heck
of an opportunity on the buyingside and on the selling side.
It could be a really uniquemixture.
And one thing and this I wastalking to one of my mentors
earlier I guess yesterday nowabout this and he brought up a
(25:24):
good point that we're likelygoing to see income growth and
that hit for me to where I was,like.
You know what We've seen.
The inflation hit everythingfrom a cost standpoint.
You look at the cost of gas,you look at the cost of housing.
You look at materials, foodeverything's up, massively up
(25:46):
over the last five years, butwhat we haven't really seen is
the inflation hit on the incomeside, on the wages side, which
that always happens too.
You look back and actually I'mgoing to look it up right now
because I'm curious the averagewages, average salary let's look
(26:08):
at 1944, just for fun.
So the average salary in 1944was $1,582, which is insane.
So that's because, obviously,the dollar being worth much less
now, that you could also buy ahouse for, I believe, about
$2,938 in 1944.
(26:30):
Dollars in 1944.
So what I expect to happen,which is a positive thing, is
over the next two to four years,we're going to see inflation
also start to hit the wages, andthat's a positive thing for the
economy as well, to wherethat's more cash flow influx
into all of the financialmarkets, which makes everything
better.
And this is the cycle of life inthe United States of America
(26:52):
and in the world of howinflation affects things over
time and why I'm so obsessedwith it and why you hear me talk
about it on pretty much everyepisode that we've ever done of
just about anything.
So anyway, that's my, I'll callit my market, my holiday market
update for you guys.
But again, I mainly just wantedto hop on here and say hello,
(27:13):
wish you a Merry Christmas.
If I don't hop on another liveone before then, which is
probably pretty likely becausewe're going to be thankfully
getting to have some fun timewith the family, which is really
a blessing, and we're reallyenjoying that so far, so
hopefully we'll keep that going.
I do want to tell you too, I'mreally excited about our next
episode that I hope is going tobe edited in time to go live on
(27:34):
Monday of next week, so that'dbe a December 10th or 11th.
I did an interview about a monthago now with a really good
friend of mine just a great guy.
He's got an incredible story.
His name is Robert Gagliano andhe actually is going to tell us
about how he found his faithand at one point 50 plus years
(27:56):
ago, was on the run from themafia, among other things, and,
through just an incredibleblessing in his life, was able
to find God and sobriety andlead a very incredible and
productive, successful life thelast 50 plus years.
It's a great story, a littlebit outside the norm of what we
normally talk about.
(28:16):
It was a very long episode, sothat's why it's taken a little
longer to edit too.
So I apologize, but definitelyyou guys are going to want to be
subscribed and hear that one.
There's a lot that you canlearn.
I mean, he's a real estateinvestor and agent as well, so a
lot of things that we'll stilltalk about on the real estate
side, but I just think that'llbe a fun one.
Anyway, guys, thank you so much.
(28:36):
Truly appreciate you being apart of our network and our
family here.
Again, if you can like the show, support the show, follow the
show, tweet it I don't know dowhatever you can.
We really appreciate it.
And the most fun thing is whenwe get some comments from you on
YouTube, which our handle there, or whatever you call it, our
username is Vacation WealthPartners.
(28:58):
That's also, by the way, thoseof you, especially our big
following of awesome people onPlayer FM if you come and
subscribe on Vacation WealthPartners YouTube, that's where
you get to showcase more of ouractual properties that we buy,
the vacation rentals we investin and some of the actual
strategies that we execute inreal life, which is fun too.
(29:20):
So I'd love to have you be partof our network there as well.
But, thank you guys.
So much, prosperous remainderof 2024 and 2025 and an
incredible Christmas or Hanukkahor whatever you get to
(30:04):
celebrate with the peopleclosest to you.
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