Stock Talk

Stock Talk

Chris Perras, CFA®, Chief Investment Officer of Oak Harvest Financial Group shares his insight into the markets based on 25 years experience. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Insurance services are provided through Oak Harvest Insurance Services, LLC, a licensed insurance agency.

Episodes

1H26 Stock Market Outlook: Part 1 -Cycles and Seasonality

December 19, 2025 • 9 mins
Here's your sneak peak of what our team expects for the 1st half of 2026 in the markets. I'll walk you through what investors can realistically expect when it comes to equity returns, market drawdowns, and volatility, and how those cycles tend to show up over time. You will come away with a clearer understanding of how often pullbacks actually occur, why volatility is a normal cost of long-term investing, and how historical seasona...

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2026 Market Outlook Preview: In Some Years, Being a Bull Rider is Harder

December 12, 2025 • 8 mins
Markets have gone up since Covid, but the ride has been anything but smooth. In this video, I break down why market pullbacks are not rare events, how often investors should expect volatility, and why even strong bull markets can feel uncomfortable along the way. If you have ever wondered why markets seem to fall more often than headlines suggest, this will give you important perspective. You will also get a sneak peek into how our...

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You Get What You Pay For: Stock Market Update, Friday December 5, 2025

December 5, 2025 • 9 mins
Market volatility isn’t a Black Friday sale, and in this video, I walk through why investors may experience drawdowns even during strong long-term markets like the S&P 500. I share historical context around common pullbacks, how different market “factors” such as growth, value, and momentum rotate over time, and why style shifts can make it difficult to “change horses mid-race.” I also review post-2020 index performance, recent...

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Technology Adoption Cycles: The AI Capex Spending Tsunami

November 26, 2025 • 10 mins
Over the past decade, the “Magnificent 7” stocks grew rapidly by operating relatively asset-light businesses. But today, these same companies are allocating unprecedented amounts of capital to chips, servers, data centers, electricity, real estate, and AI infrastructure. My goal in this video is to give you clear context around these spending trends, how they compare to past investment cycles, and why investors are raising new ques...

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What is a "K"-Shaped Economy? Stock Market Update, Friday November 21, 2025

November 21, 2025 • 6 mins
What if I told you the shape of today’s economy might explain why some Americans feel prosperous while others feel like they are falling behind? In this episode of Stock Talk, I break down why economists are calling this a K shaped recovery and what that really means for consumers, workers, and long term investors.

 

Over the years, commentators have tried simplifying economic cycles with shapes like V or W. But what we are experie...

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Our Song Remains the Same: Stock Market Update, Friday November 7, 2025

November 7, 2025 • 4 mins
Today I’m blending a little classic rock with market insight to cut through the noise of bearish headlines and bubble talk. You’ll hear why I don’t agree with comparisons to the late ’90s, what the data actually says about this V-bottom rally, and why history shows strength, not weakness, when markets stay over key moving averages. By the end, you’ll walk away with a clearer, fact-based perspective on where we are in this bull mark...

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AI Tech Stock Bubble? Stock Market Update, Friday October 24, 2025

October 24, 2025 • 6 mins
Paul Tudor Jones recently said we’re in the “9th inning” of the AI tech stock bubble, the late stages of a market mania similar to 1999’s Dot-com peak. I don’t see it that way. In this week’s video, I break down why the data tells a different story, and why I believe we’re still early in the game, maybe the 3rd or 4th inning, not the 9th. We’ll compare today’s AI-driven market cycle to the Dot-com era, review historical S&P 500...

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4Q25 Outlook: "Let's Get it Started" - V-Bottom Month 7. Stock Market Update, Friday October 17, 2025

October 17, 2025 • 7 mins
Are we seeing the top of the AI boom or just another milestone in a long-term growth story? In this week’s Market Update, I examines whether September 2025 will be remembered as the “top” of the AI trade, or if comparisons to the late-1990s Dot-com bubble miss the mark. I'll also give you perspective on market leadership, sector rotation, and what investors might expect as we enter the seasonally strong fourth quarter and the first...

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A September to Remember: 21 Trading days. Stock Market Update, Friday October 10, 2025

October 10, 2025 • 7 mins
Maybe five or ten years from now, we’ll look back and wonder if September 2025 was the top of the AI boom. Personally, I doubt it. For now, those who tuned out the “AI bubble” and “overvalued S&P 500” chatter are likely smiling after a strong third quarter.   Today I'm going to review the data and context behind what may go down as one of the strongest third quarters in recent history, and discuss why, historically, the fourth ...

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V-Bottom Recovery: Month 6 – What to Buy. Stock Market Update, Friday Sept 26, 2025

September 26, 2025 • 12 mins
In this week’s market update, I walk through the lessons from the sharp April selloff, why our team viewed it as a classic “V-bottom” recovery, and how history may guide what comes next. I compare today’s AI-driven market cycle with the Dotcom buildout of the late 1990s, highlighting which sectors have led year-to-date and what that might mean for investors as we head into year-end repositioning season. From technology and semicond...

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V-Bottom Recovery-The Beat Goes On-What's Next? Stock Market Update, Friday Sept 19, 2025

September 19, 2025 • 8 mins
Are we in the middle of a historic V-bottom recovery that mirrors the Dotcom boom, but this time fueled by AI? In this week’s update, I break down why I believe the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut, the strength of the S&P 500 since April, and the powerful role of semiconductors all point to a bull market that still has room to run. I compare today’s market action to the late 1990s tech buildout, explain what history tells us ...

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When Doves Come to Town: Stock Market Update, Friday Aug 29, 2025

August 29, 2025 • 9 mins
Will the stock market keep soaring toward 7,300–7,400, even with higher rates, global tensions, and Fed uncertainty? I'm going to break down what Jerome Powell’s dovish comments really mean, why the S&P 500 is hitting record highs, and what decades of market history reveal about Fed pauses and rate cuts. Drawing on almost 35 years of managing money, I show how today’s cycle mirrors the dot-com era, why liquidity drives markets ...

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Stocks at All Time Highs in August - Pleasantly Surprised: Stock Market Update, Friday Aug 22, 2025

August 22, 2025 • 8 mins
Is history repeating itself? The S&P 500 near 6,450 is tracking the late ’90s Dot-com rally almost to the week, and it could signal more upside ahead. Find out why August 1st may mark the low for 2H 2025, why fears about interest rates and foreign bond selling are likely overblown, and how falling volatility points to stronger markets into 2026. Get the context you need to understand where we are in this bull market and what it...

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Moving on Up- V-Bottoms: Stock Market Update, Friday Aug 15, 2025

August 15, 2025 • 9 mins
Fears of a major pullback may be overblown - Watch today's video to hear which past cycles I believe today’s market is echoing. I also go over what we're seeing in earnings, volatility, and institutional positioning, why we remain bullish heading into late 2025 and 2026, and what sectors may lead the next leg higher. If you're curious about how we're adjusting our long/short hedged equity strategy, what lower bond volatility really...

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Stock Market Update, Friday Aug 1, 2025: Summer Stock Selloff Begins

August 1, 2025 • 7 mins
Today I'm walking you through the incredible 3.75-month V-bottom rally we’ve seen since mid-April, why it happened without Fed intervention, and what history suggests could be next. I’ll share why we believe the bull market remains intact, even as we head toward a likely late-summer pause or mild pullback before a potential 4th quarter rally and continued strength into 1H26. Along the way, I’ll highlight key market patterns, season...

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Stock Market Update, Friday July 25, 2025: Summer Stall or Squall

July 25, 2025 • 10 mins
We've been seeing a powerful market rally since April—a classic V-bottom recovery that unfolded without Fed intervention and defied the doom-and-gloom predictions of many so-called experts. I explain why our team at Oak Harvest Financial Group saw this coming, why we're still bullish long term, and why now might be the perfect time to take a breath and reassess your investment plan—not chase returns. Watch to gain a clearer view of...

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Stock Market Update, Friday July 18, 2025: NOTHING but NET

July 21, 2025 • 7 mins
In this week’s video, I walk you through why we believed the April lows marked the bottom for stocks this year—and how the market’s powerful V-bottom rally played out almost exactly as we anticipated. I’ll share what history tells us about July’s bullish tendencies, why the current market resembles late 1998 more than peak Dot-com, and what you can expect in the weeks ahead. But before you get swept up in the optimism, I’ll explain...

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The Heat of Summer: Don’t Let Seasonal Shifts Derail Your Strategy

July 11, 2025 • 7 mins
After a volatile first half of the year, what's really happening in the markets? Post-election rallies, sharp corrections, and a historic V-bottom recovery... What does history tell us about new all-time highs, investor sentiment, and why being “overbought” or “overvalued” isn’t the red flag many think it is? Watch today's Stock Talk to learn what to expect for the rest of 2025, which sectors might rotate, and why a potential summe...

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V-Bottom Fireworks: The Rally Most Everyone Missed (And What’s Next)

July 4, 2025 • 6 mins

I said April lows were likely the bottom for stocks in 2025, and that call has played out as markets have surged to new all-time highs in record time, without the help of Fed rate cuts. I'm going to talk about what made this rally different from past rebounds, why history pointed to a V-bottom recovery, and what comes next as we head into the back half of the year. Learn key technical signals, bond market data, and historical analo...

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Market Outlook Summit Recap

June 30, 2025 • 1 min

Link to livestream: Oak Harvest's 2nd Half 2025 Market Outlook Summit https://youtube.com/live/9aERiXHbFQA?... About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast...

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