Stock Talk

Stock Talk

Chris Perras, CFA®, Chief Investment Officer of Oak Harvest Financial Group shares his insight into the markets based on 25 years experience. Advisory services are provided through Oak Harvest Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Insurance services are provided through Oak Harvest Insurance Services, LLC, a licensed insurance agency.

Episodes

The Heat of Summer: Don’t Let Seasonal Shifts Derail Your Strategy

July 11, 2025 • 7 mins
After a volatile first half of the year, what's really happening in the markets? Post-election rallies, sharp corrections, and a historic V-bottom recovery... What does history tell us about new all-time highs, investor sentiment, and why being “overbought” or “overvalued” isn’t the red flag many think it is? Watch today's Stock Talk to learn what to expect for the rest of 2025, which sectors might rotate, and why a potential summe...

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V-Bottom Fireworks: The Rally Most Everyone Missed (And What’s Next)

July 4, 2025 • 6 mins

I said April lows were likely the bottom for stocks in 2025, and that call has played out as markets have surged to new all-time highs in record time, without the help of Fed rate cuts. I'm going to talk about what made this rally different from past rebounds, why history pointed to a V-bottom recovery, and what comes next as we head into the back half of the year. Learn key technical signals, bond market data, and historical analo...

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Market Outlook Summit Recap

June 30, 2025 • 1 min

Link to livestream: Oak Harvest's 2nd Half 2025 Market Outlook Summit https://youtube.com/live/9aERiXHbFQA?... About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast...

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V-ictory Formation: “The” Bottom looks behind us, Here’s What We Think is Next for Stocks

June 13, 2025 • 9 mins
In this quick, data‑packed update, I walk you through why our team called the April 7 market bottom in real time, how the ensuing “V‑bottom” has already delivered a 1,000‑point surge, and most importantly, what history says usually follows moves like these. You’ll see the hard numbers behind my “Victory formation” thesis, learn why a slow grind to new highs (and a summer pullback worth buying) is the most likely path, and discover ...

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Pres. Trump vs. Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Interest Rate Smackdown

June 9, 2025 • 13 mins
What does the brewing battle over interest rates between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell mean for investors like you? Using real-time market data and historical context, I break down whether the Fed is keeping rates too high, how past decisions played out, and why the President may actually have the better read on today’s economy. If you're wondering where interest rates are headed, what inflation data is re...

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Stock Market V-Bottom: History Is Repeating and Most Investors May Still Be on the Sidelines

May 30, 2025 • 8 mins
Buckle up for our team's latest analysis on why we believe the market likely hit its low back in early April and is now following a classic V-bottom recovery pattern without the help of Fed rate cuts. Find out why many investors and media voices got it wrong, how breadth and momentum are broadening beyond just big tech, and what historical patterns suggest about the next few months for the S&P 500. I also walk through key techn...

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From Panic to Peak: Why Markets May Hit New Highs This Summer

May 23, 2025 • 7 mins
The April 7th low marked a major turning point for the stock market and today we talk about how history, technical signals, and market breadth indicators support a bullish outlook going forward. I explain the significance of recent breadth thrusts, including a rare combination that has historically led to strong market gains, and why most investors missed this “V-bottom” rebound. We also discuss the market’s reaction to the recent ...

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V-Bottoms: No One Get's In, Bears left Behind

May 16, 2025 • 7 mins
There was a sharp market rally that followed the early April lows—what many are calling a “V-bottom”—and most investors missed the rebound. Today let's talk about how real-time market data, not media narratives, pointed to improving conditions well before the news of tariff reductions between the U.S. and China hit. I also compare today’s market setup to the mid-1998 Dot-Com period, not the bubble peak, highlighting what historical...

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Stocks Rebound: Have We Seen the Market Bottom?

May 9, 2025 • 10 mins
Despite all the noise from the media and bearish forecasters, the data suggests we may have already seen the lows for this cycle. I cover the recent stock market volatility, highlight key technical patterns, and break down important economic indicators like job growth, wage data, and bond market trends. You’ll get my perspective on why I believe we’re not heading into a deep recession and why now might actually be a good time for l...

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A GOAT shows on April 24th: Perfect Historic Track Record

May 2, 2025 • 11 mins
Despite all the recent market turmoil, our team at OHFG believes April 7th will be likely marked the low—not just a low—for the S&P 500, and why historical signals like the rare Zweig Breadth Thrust are flashing strong bullish signs for the next 6–12 months. I break down the data behind these signals, explain why panicking now is often a mistake for long-term investors, and share who you should and shouldn’t be listening to whe...

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Market Correction or Bear Market? This Could Change How You See Aprils Drop

April 25, 2025 • 11 mins
Let's cut to the chase about the recent volatility in the markets and what it could mean for long-term investors. You’ll hear my take on whether April 7th marked a low or the low for the S&P 500, why I believe now may actually be a time to consider buying rather than retreating, and why the much-feared "Death Cross" may be more of a lagging indicator than a useful signal. I also compare today’s market drop to similar periods in...

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Sometimes: You Gotta Close Your Eyes and Buy (or Laugh)

April 18, 2025 • 16 mins
In this podcast, I take you through what has been one of the most unexpected and chaotic starts to a presidential term in modern market history—what I’m calling “Trump 2.0 meets economic whiplash.” You’ll learn why the markets went from optimism and strength to panic and selloff almost overnight, how the surprise implementation of global tariffs reshaped investor sentiment, and why historical market cycles—like Dot.com and LTCM—may...

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"Tariff"ied Air: Inside “Liberation Day”, Tariff Chaos, and Market Fallout

April 11, 2025 • 12 mins
Chaos has ensued in the financial markets following President Trump’s surprise “Liberation Day” tariff announcement—something no one had priced in or planned for. I walk you through what actually happened during the speech, why the markets initially rose and then collapsed, and how this unconventional tariff policy based on trade deficits, not reciprocal rates, led to a full-blown market rout. You’ll learn how the tariff formula di...

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Real Interest Rates vs. Stocks: A Dangerous Shift?

April 4, 2025 • 9 mins
Why do I always pay so much attention to real-time real interest rates? Specifically, the difference between nominal Treasury yields and breakeven inflation rates—and how these signals have historically influenced the stock market. Walk with me through charts comparing the S&P 500 with 5-year real rates from the post-2008 QE era to today, highlighting how market reactions to these rates have shifted dramatically over time. You’...
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Stocks Just Dropped 10%—Here’s Why the Weak Start to 2025 Might Be an Opportunity

March 28, 2025 • 12 mins
In this week’s video, we’re diving back into the charts and data to analyze the recent -10%+ decline in the S&P 500 and what history tells us about similar market drops. While volatility can be uncomfortable, historical data shows that sharp declines often lead to strong rebounds over the following months. We’ll cover 75 years of market trends, the impact of economic policies, and key indicators that suggest we may be near a ma...
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Feeling Uneasy about the Stock Markets? Watch This

March 24, 2025 • 14 mins
Investors, in this week’s Stock Talk, we’re diving into the market indicators our team tracks—signals that have historically led market moves. While I teased the idea of Ripley's Believe it or Not trading, the reality is, we’re working with strange but consistently true trading—patterns, seasonals, and real-time data series that consistently provide insight into market direction. You'll walk away with an understanding of why we bel...
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2025 Stock Market: We Never Said it Would be Easy

March 7, 2025 • 12 mins
Lets break down the turbulent start to 2025 in the stock market and what it means for investors moving forward. You'll learn why recent market volatility isn’t unusual, how historical data suggests seasonality may soon turn in investors' favor, and why the early months of a new presidential term often bring uncertainty. We’ll also discuss key economic factors, such as inflation expectations, government policy shifts, and investor s...
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Friday Fights and Stock Flights

February 28, 2025 • 5 mins
Let's break down last week’s sharp market sell-off and what it means for investors moving forward. We’ll discuss the economic data that triggered the drop, including rising inflation expectations and slowing growth, and how these trends align with what we’ve been forecasting over the past few months. I also dive into the historical patterns of market volatility in February, particularly in the first year of a presidential term, and...
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Bad News for the Bears: Running with the Bulls and Winning

February 21, 2025 • 10 mins
Let's dive into the bullish case for stocks in 2025, breaking down key market trends, investor sentiment, and economic indicators that point to continued growth. While last week’s discussion highlighted economic slowdowns, this week, we focus on why slowing doesn’t mean shrinking and why the market remains strong. We analyze historical market patterns, earnings trends, and currency movements to show how a weakening dollar could pro...
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Slowing (fast) but Growing Bidenomics Mirage?

February 14, 2025 • 9 mins
What most financial media outlets either don’t know or won’t tell you: The American economy is slowing rapidly after the holiday-driven consumer boom, and I dive into the real data—beyond the short-term government reports—to explain why. We’ll look at how job growth has been overstated, where the real hiring has been happening, and why government employment trends matter for investors. I also discuss how policy shifts from the new ...
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